7 Things to Know About Russia This Week

1. Russian finances buck predictions (in short term, at least): Headlines in the Western press this spring described a Russian economy “in tatters” and a ruble “destroyed” due to Western sanctions and their fall-out. Fast-forward to summer and Russia's currency turns out to be the best performing in the world this year, according to CBS News. Prices in Russia inched downward in June—by 0.35% compared to May—for the first time since the country’s post-Soviet independence, RBC reports. Moreover, Russia is on track to recoup “a big chunk” of its frozen reserves thanks to a trade balance surplus, according to Elina Ribakova of IFF. That said, the longer-term macroeconomic outlook remains dim for Russia, with the IMF predicting GDP will drop by 8.5% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.
2. Is price-capping Russian oil realistic? U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans to push for a price cap on Russian oil this week at a G20 meeting—to be attended by Russia’s finance minister via video-link—and says that going along with the cap is in Russia’s interest. Not only does the assertion contradict one of Biden's favorite sayings on foreign policy (never tell someone else what's in their interest), it also focuses attention on a key question: Is Washington pursuing a punitive approach that’s likely to prove futile, as RM contributor and former State Department economist Daniel Ahn suspects?
3. Saudi Arabia reportedly freeing up oil for export by importing more Russian supplies: With Biden touring the Middle East and expected to ask Riyadh to export more oil in order to drive down global prices, Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia more than doubled the amount of Russian fuel oil it imported in the second quarter. Citing data and traders, the agency said the increased imports’ purpose was to meet summer cooling demand by feeding power stations and to free up the kingdom’s own crude for export.
4. From prison in Russia to war in Ukraine: Estimates of Russian casualties in Ukraine vary wildly, but whatever the true number, it seems to be sufficient to force Russia’s military recruiters to think outside the box: Some are enticing prisoners to trade a life behind bars for one on the frontlines, while others are targeting the unemployed with offers equivalent to $5,000 a month—more than four times the average wage in Russia in April.
5. Western sanctions stumble: Canada has heeded Berlin’s pleas, granting an exemption from sanctions against Russia to send a turbine for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline back to Germany after repairs. The turbine will need to clear EU sanctions hurdles to get back to Russia, which has linked the delay to its June decision to slash supplies via the pipeline by 60%—a move that drove up European gas prices. Canada’s minister of natural resources, Jonathan Wilkinson, said that without sufficient “natural gas [via NS1] the German economy will suffer very significant hardship,” with consumers potentially “unable to heat their homes as winter approaches.” 
6. Progress toward freeing Ukrainian grain: U.N. and Turkish officials said substantive progress has been made on a plan to allow the safe passage of millions of tons of grain from the Black Sea after a first round of talks in Istanbul on June 13, the FT and Wall Street Journal report. Officials from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the U.N. agreed to set up a coordination center in Istanbul where their representatives would oversee outbound shipments of grain, according to Turkey’s defense minister. Any deal still needs to be signed off by Putin, a Western official told the Journal. There are hopes this may happen when the Russian president meets his Turkish counterpart next week.
7. Rebuilding Ukraine: This month, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, estimated that funding national recovery in Ukraine will cost $750 billion. But this week’s useful calculations by the FT suggest the amount of money available will be nowhere near this much. The paper’s Lex column points out that, adjusted for inflation, the amount spent on reconstruction in Iraq has been less than $300 billion and in Afghanistan less than $200 billion—and returns on the investment have been poor.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukrainian officials say that Russian troops have installed artillery at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. (NYT, 07.12.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new round of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, with nearly $368 million worth of assistance. (RFE/RL, 07.09.22)
• Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain exports may have contributed to Sri Lanka's turmoil, Blinken said, voicing concern that it could lead to other crises elsewhere in the world. (RFE/RL, 07.10.22)
• Ukrainian rescuer workers have recovered 45 bodies after Russian Uragan rockets hit a five-story apartment block, collapsing the building in the eastern Donetsk region’s town of Chasiv Yar. (RFE/RL, 07.10.22, Ukrinform, 07.14.22)
• Ukraine has condemned a new decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin that allows Ukrainians in all parts of the country to obtain Russian citizenship. (RFE/RL, 07.11.22)
• The U.S. government said it and the World Bank will provide Ukraine with an additional $1.7 billion in assistance to pay the salaries of its health-care workers and provide other essential services. (RFE/RL, 07.12.22)
• Ukraine's navy says it has begun helping to facilitate the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, saying the assistance was possible because Ukraine managed to retake Snake Island. (RFE/RL, 07.12.22)
• Authorities in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson occupied by pro-Russia forces said July 12 that Ukrainian shelling on a city there had killed seven people. (MT/AFP, 07.12.22)
• The European Commission said it is pushing multinational companies to buy more Ukrainian grain. (FT, 07.12.22)
• EU finance ministers approved 1 billion euros in macro-financial assistance for Ukraine, but the sum is just a fraction of the original 9 billion proposed by the European Commission in May. (FT, 07.13.22, FT, 07.13.22)
  • For over a month, Germany has been blocking the 9 billion euro aid package that should represent the main form of EU support for Ukraine. The stalemate could be one of the reasons that prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to suddenly and rather brutally remove the Ukrainian ambassador to Berlin Andryi Melnyk. (Corriere della Sera, 07.10.22)
  • Ukraine’s central bank burnt through 9.3% of its foreign exchange reserves in June alone. Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Zelenskyy, says the country now needs $9 billion a month from the west to plug its budget shortfall. (FT, 07.14.22)
  • Last week saw Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, say funding the national recovery of Ukraine will cost $750 billion. (FT, 07.10.22)
• Blinken accused Russia of forcibly deporting up to 1.6 million Ukrainians to Russia, accusing Moscow of a deliberate criminal operation to depopulate parts of Ukraine. A report by OSCE expresses "grave concerns" of alleged mistreatment by the Russian authorities of tens of thousands of Ukrainians who had been forcibly deported from their country and sent to so-called "filtration centers." (RFE/RL, 07.14.22, MT/AFP, 07.13.22)
• Russia and Ukraine have made “very substantive progress” on a plan to avert a global food crisis by allowing the safe passage of millions of tons of grain from the Black Sea, the head of the U.N. said after a first round of U.N.-backed talks in Istanbul on June 13. Officials from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the U.N. agreed to establish a coordination center in Istanbul where their representatives would oversee outbound shipments of grain. Any deal still needs to be signed off by Putin, according to a Western official, which may happen when he meets his Turkish counterpart next week. (FT, 07.13.22, WSJ, 07.13.22)
• Russian missiles struck Vinnytsia in central Ukraine July 14, killing at least 20 people including three children, in what Zelensky called "an open act of terrorism." Russia said its strikes on Vinnytsia targeted a Ukrainian military meeting. (MT/AFP, 07.14.22, MT, 07.15.22)
• Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have captured U.S. citizen Suedi Murekezi for allegedly taking part in pro-Ukrainian rallies. Earlier, Denis Pushilin, head of the self-styled DNR, has indicated that three foreigners sentenced to death for "mercenary activities" could be executed in secrecy if their appeals against their sentences are denied. (MT/AFP, 07.14.22, RFE/RL, 07.13.22)
• Firefighters worked to put out flames after Russian missiles struck two universities, a hotel and a mall in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv. At least two people were injured, the city’s mayor said. (Reuters, 07.15.22)
• Paul Urey, a British aid worker captured in Ukraine by pro-Russian forces, has died in captivity, an official in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) said July 15. (MT, 07.15.22)

Military and guerilla aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• The United States says it will send more long-range multiple-launch rocket systems to Ukraine. The U.S. weapons package announced on July 8 will include four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, bringing the total number of these systems sent to Ukraine since last month to 12. (RFE/RL, 07.09.22)
  • Ukraine's defense minister Oleksii Reznikov said his country has "passed the test" with its successful use of recently delivered HIMARS. (RFE/RL, 07.13.22)
  • Russia has suffered “large losses in both men and equipment” because of HIMARS, according to Igor Girkin, a former commander of separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 07.11.22)

• Russian forces have increased bombardment of the five main towns and cities in the area—Bakhmut, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka. (NYT, 07.11.22)
• Statistics, compiled by MediaZona, an independent news outlet, from public sources, show 225 servicemen from Dagestan killed in action through June, along with 185 from Buryatia, compared to nine from Moscow and 30 from St. Petersburg. (NYT, 07.11.22)
• Moscow-backed authorities of the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson said July 11 they had foiled an attack against their local leader, Vladimir Saldo. (MT/AFP, 07.11.22)
• Prisoners with combat experience across Russia are being recruited en masse to fight in Ukraine, the Gulagu.net prisoner's rights group has reported. (MT/AFP, 07.11.22)
• Russians, who are officially registered as unemployed, are being offered to sign on as contractors to fight the war in Ukraine. They are being obliged to sign an agreement on non-disclosure of military secrets and promised a salary of about 300,000 rubles a month. (istories, 07.12.22)
• Around 150 soldiers from Russia’s Republic of Buryatia, which has one of the highest military death tolls in the Ukraine war, have refused deployment, a prominent activist has said. (MT/AFP, 07.12.22)
• The U.S. government has said it believes Iran is planning to provide Russia with "hundreds" of unmanned aerial vehicles, including weapons-capable drones, for use in its war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.12.22)
• NATO and EU states are pushing for better tracking of weapons they have supplied to Ukraine in response to fears that criminal groups are smuggling them back out of the country and on to Europe’s black market. (FT, 07.12.22)
• Ukraine has said Maj. Gen. Artem Nasbulin, the chief of staff of Russia’s 22nd Army Corp, was killed in a HIMARS strike on a headquarters in the Kherson region. The strike also killed two colonels and one lieutenant colonel. (Newsweek, 07.12.22, Interfax, 07.11.22)
• Some Biden administration officials are concerned that pulling too many Ukrainian artillery specialists off the front lines for weeks of training on the new weapons could weaken Ukrainian defenses, accelerate Russian gains and make any future counterattacks more difficult to carry out. (NYT, 07.13.22)
• The first Russian female soldier has died in Ukraine four and a half months into Russia’s war against its pro-Western neighbor, local media reported July 12. Anastasia Savitskaya was a corporal. (MT/AFP, 07.13.22)
• Ukrainian officials say there are 10 Russian cannons for every Ukrainian one. (FT, 07.14.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is "deeply disappointed" by a Canadian government decision to return a repaired Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline turbine to Germany after completing maintenance on the equipment. In explaining the decision. Canadian minister of natural resources Jonathan Wilkinson said: “Absent a necessary supply of natural gas, the German economy will suffer very significant hardship and Germans themselves will be at risk of being unable to heat their homes as winter approaches.” (RFE/RL, 07.10.22, FT, 07.10.22) 
• French perfume and cosmetics chain Sephora will sell its stores in Russia to a Russian entity within weeks. Sephora has 88 stores in Russia. (Meduza, 07.11.22)
• The world's largest toymaker, Denmark's Lego, said July 12 it would stop all its Russian operations. (MT/AFP, 07.12.22)
• The EU has frozen Russian assets worth €13.8 billion since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, but this large sum remains largely untouched across the bloc, a high-ranking European Commission official said on July 12. (Euroactiv, 07.12.22)
• Sales at Renault fell by 30% after the French auto maker withdrew from Russia. (WSJ, 07.12.22) 
• In the four months since Swiss authorities began sanctions, $6.8 billion in Russian financial assets have been frozen, alongside 15 homes and properties. Eighty percent of Russia's commodities are traded through Switzerland. Swiss banks manage an estimated $150 billion for Russian clients. Thirty-two of the oligarchs closest to Putin have property, bank accounts or businesses in Switzerland. (WSJ, 07.13.22)
• EU countries have collectively frozen $14 billion in alleged oligarch assets spanning funds, boats, helicopters and real estate, in addition to over $20 billion in Russian central-bank reserves. EU countries have also blocked around $200 billion in financial transactions. (WSJ, 07.13.22)
• The EU on July 13 said Lithuania had an obligation to allow the passage of sanctioned goods, with the exception of weapons, between Russia and its exclave of Kaliningrad. (MT/AFP, 07.13.22)
• The European Space Agency pulled the plug July 12 on a joint Russian-European rover mission to Mars in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 07.13.22)
• The IMF is preparing to lower its growth forecasts for the global economy this year and next amid rising inflation and commodity price shocks driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (FT, 07.13.22)
• Ukraine has severed relations with North Korea after Pyongyang recognized two eastern territories of Ukraine as independent. (RFE/RL, 07.14.22)
• Commodity trader Trafigura has sold a multibillion-dollar stake in a giant Russian oil project to an obscure Hong Kong company that was set up just nine days before Russia invaded Ukraine. The sale shines a spotlight on a new group of traders in Russian oil that has emerged since the invasion. Nord Axis has lifted 20,000 barrels a day of Russian oil since the beginning of March, forming part of wider group of at least 24 traders new to Russian business that have collectively taken about 450,000 b/d in the second quarter, according to Petro-Logistics, a Swiss-based cargo-tracking group. (FT, 07.14.22)
• The Russia-targeted sanctions have dealt China a winning hand while hurting Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on July 15. (TASS, 07.15.22)
• Instead of targeting gas and oil, key sources of Russian revenue, the European Commission on July 15 proposed a ban on gold imports and some tweaks to improve the implementation and enforcement of existing sanctions. (WP, 07.15.22)
• Also see the Energy exports from CIS section.

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Blinken said he saw no indications that Russia was seeking to engage with diplomats over its invasion of Ukraine last week at the G-20 summit in Indonesia. (RFE/RL, 07.09.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The Biden administration has concluded that it is vital to “puncture” Putin’s conviction that he can outlast the west. Washington believes this means Ukrainians must be given the ability to inflict losses and take back territory in the Donbas and around the Black Sea port of Kherson. (FT, 07.14.22)
• Nikolai Patrushev, Putin’s national security chief, was sufficiently emboldened by recent battlefield successes to revive the Kremlin’s original war aims of removing Ukraine’s leadership and “de-Nazifying the state.” (FT, 07.14.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

•  “We are concerned about [China’s] alignment with Russia,” Blinken told reporters on July 9 after the G-20 summit. When Blinken pressed China at the G-20 to ditch its support of Russia’s war in Ukraine, he was pushing up against a red line now firmly entrenched in Beijing. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, doubled down on his country’s position, retorting that Beijing was neutral and lashing out at the U.S. for “China phobia” and policies that offered “a dead end” with no way out. (RFE/RL, 07.09.22, NYT, 07.13.22)
  • The U.S. is consulting with India, China and other major energy consumers on plans to introduce a price cap on Russian oil, national security adviser Jake Sullivan has said. (FT, 07.13.22)
• Chinese exports to Russia of microchips and other electronic components and raw materials, some with military applications, have increased since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Chip shipments from China to Russia more than doubled to about $50 million in the first five months of 2022 compared with a year earlier, Chinese customs data show, while exports of other components such as printed circuits had double-digit percentage growth. Export volumes of aluminum oxide, which is used to make the metal aluminum, an important material in weapons production and aerospace, are 400 times higher than last year. (WSJ, 07.15.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• On July 1, the Air Force published its Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for its proposed ICBM replacement program. The Draft EIS notes that the Air Force assessed two fascinating––and somewhat familiar––alternatives for basing the new missiles: in underground tunnels and in “deep-lake silos.” (Matt Corda at FAS, 07.13.22)

Counterterrorism:

• The U.S. military carried out a drone strike in Syria on July 12 that officials said killed Maher al-Agal, the leader of the ISIS terrorist group's Syria branch and one of its top five leaders worldwide.  (NYT, 07.12.22)

Conflict in Syria:

• World powers agreed on July 12 to continue a U.N. aid mission to northwest Syria for six more months, bending to a deadline demanded by Russia that will, for now, avoid shutting down lifesaving deliveries for about four million people living amid an 11-year civil war. (NYT, 07.12.22)
• Putin will travel to Tehran on July 19 to meet his Turkish and Iranian counterparts as part of the so-called Astana format of talks related to Syria. (RFE/RL, 07.12.22)

Cyber security:

• Ukrainian officials who have flagged thousands of tweets, YouTube videos and other social media posts as Russian propaganda or anti-Ukrainian hate speech say U.S. tech companies have grown less responsive to their requests to remove such content. (WP, 07.14.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s main gas pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 1, went offline for scheduled maintenance on July 11, with fears growing that the flow of gas might not resume after the repairs are completed. (FT, 07.11.22)
  • Germany's economy minister Robert Habeck, who has said he's taking shorter showers, has laid out an emergency plan in the case of a further crunch on [energy] supplies. (WP, 07.11.22)
  • Germany will halt imports of Russian coal from next month and Russian oil by the end of the year, a top economic aide to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced. (MT/AFP, 07.14.22)
• A Russian court on July 11 overturned a ruling for a 30-day ban on the unloading of oil deliveries from Kazakhstan. Last week, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ordered officials to find oil export routes bypassing Russia after a Russian court ordered a 30-day ban on unloading from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s pipeline, citing environmental violations. (AFP, 07.11.22)
• Oil prices have fallen below $95 a barrel for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine, as fears of an impending global recession grip commodity markets and batter forecasts for demand. (FT, 07.14.22) 
• Shell Chief Executive Ben van Beurden said Europe may need to ration energy and faces the prospect of sharply escalating prices, as the continent gears up for a "really tough" winter. (WSJ, 07.14.22)
• “Our greatest challenge today comes from Russia," U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a news conference on July 14 ahead of a meeting of the G-20 finance chiefs on July 15-16. Yellen said she will press allies at the meeting to agree on a price cap on Russian oil to reduce the Kremlin's ability to fund its war and to bring down global energy costs. Russia Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was to attend the meeting via videolink. (RFE/RL, 07.14.22, NYT, 07.14.22, Politico, 07.14.22)
  • “We’re proposing an exception that would allow Russia to export as long as the price doesn’t exceed a to-be-determined level,” Yellen said. Given that more Russian oil would be “shut in” if Russia doesn’t agree to a cap, the policy is “something that they should be willing to go along with,” she said. (NYT, 07.14.22)
• Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, more than doubled the amount of Russian fuel oil it imported in the second quarter to feed power stations to meet summer cooling demand and free up the kingdom’s own crude for export, data showed and traders said. However, no immediate Saudi oil output boost is expected. (Reuters, 07.14.22, Reuters, 07.15.22)

Climate change:

• The U.S. and China, the world's two leading greenhouse gas emitters, are each responsible for more than $1.8 trillion of global income losses through warming from 1990 to 2014, according to a new study by Dartmouth College. Economic losses caused by Russia, India and Brazil exceeds $500 billion over that period for each of those three emitter countries. (WP 07.12.22)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The United States said July 15 it would resume flights to the International Space Station with Russia, despite its attempts to isolate Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine. (AFP, 07.15.22)
• U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner's Russian team praised her contribution to the country's sport on July 14 as they shared testimony during her high-profile trial. Russia's Foreign Ministry on July 14 warned Washington not to exert pressure on Moscow over prisoner exchanges, hours before Griner arrived at a suburban court to face a third hearing in her trial on drug charges for which she could serve 10 years in prison. (MT/AFP, 07.14.22, WP,  07.14.22)
  • Veteran U.S. hostage negotiator Bill Richardson could travel to Russia to seek the release of Griner and former Marine Paul Whelan. (RFE/RL, 07.12.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Putin on July 14 signed dozens of new laws. Among the most important: a law punishing torture with imprisonment for up to 12 years, and in case of death, up to 15; a law allowing extrajudicial media blocking; a law allowing journalists, not just legal entities, to be punished for “discrediting” the Russian army; a law on special economic measures during foreign military operations allowing the use of all state rainy day funds; new laws punishing “confidential” cooperation with foreigners against Russia’s security with eight years in prison and four years for “repeated propaganda”; and a law allowing for the designation of “foreign agent” status without financing from abroad, according to MediaZone. (RM, 07.15.22)
• Putin on July 15 reshuffled his top officials. He removed Dmitry Rogozin as the head of state-controlled Roscosmos space agency, replacing Rogozin with Yuri Borisov, a deputy prime minister who was in charge of weapons industries. Borisov’s duties were handed over to Denis Manturov, the minister of industry and trade who was also given the rank of a deputy prime minister. (AP, 07.15.22)
• Russia's current account hit new records, up by $138.5 billion in 1H2022, on track to reach the forecast of $200-250 billion for the year and to recoup a big chunk of the frozen reserves ~$300 billion. CA surplus for June alone was $28 billion, driven by a trade balance surplus of $23 billion, according to Elina Ribakova of the International Institute of Finance. (Ribakova’s Twitter account, 07.13.22)
• In June, compared with May, prices in Russia fell by 0.35%, according to Rosstat data. In annual terms, inflation slowed down from 17.1% in May to 15.9%. As RBC notes, prior to this, deflation in the first month of years had not been recorded even once in the history of modern Russia, that is, since 1991. (Meduza, 07.08.22)
• Results of a closed poll that state-owned pollster VTsIOM conducted at the end of June 2022 at the request of the Kremlin indicates 30% of Russians believe that “the hostilities in Ukraine” should be “stopped as soon as possible.” Some 57% of respondents believe that the war should be continued. According to the results of the same survey, in the 18-24 age group, 56% are in favor of ending the war, and only 19% are in favor of continuing. (Meduza, 07.12.22)
• Three sources close to the Kremlin told Meduza that Putin fears that during the war in Ukraine, some Russian generals may gain “excessive popularity.” Because of this, state-controlled media almost does not report on the actions of the top military leadership at the front. (Meduza, 07.11.22)
• Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny announced a relaunch of the group known for publishing investigative reports about corruption among top Russian officials. Navalny tweeted on July 11 that the new Anti-Corruption Foundation will function as an international organization with an advisory board including his wife, Yulia Navalnaya; former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, who is currently a member of the European Parliament; Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Anne Applebaum; and U.S. philosopher Francis Fukuyama. (RFE/RL, 07.11.22)
• Russia has designated the Bellingcat investigative outlet as an “undesirable” organization on July 15, outlawing its operations inside the country. Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office accused Bellingcat and its Russian partner The Insider of "posing a threat to the security of the Russian Federation.” (MT, 07.15.22)
• Russian journalist Maria Ponomarenko, who was detained in St. Petersburg in April on accusations of discrediting the Russian armed forces with "fake" social-media posts, has said she was tortured in a psychiatric clinic in Siberia. (RFE/RL, 07.13.22)
• Russian authorities have launched a criminal case against Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin for allegedly spreading false information about the Russian army, his lawyer said on July 12. He faces a sentence of up to 10 years in prison. (RFE/RL, 07.13.22)
• Russian journalist Pyotr Koronayev, who used to work for the Moscow-based Baza news website, and his wife, Tatyana Kulikova, have crossed the border from Mexico and requested political asylum in the United States. (RFE/RL, 07.14.22)
• A court in St. Petersburg has arrested a well-known documentary filmmaker, Vsevolod Korolyov, for allegedly "disseminating fake news" about the Russian military. (RFE/RL, 07.14.22)
• Kremlin critic Andrei Pivovarov, the former head of pro-democracy group Open Russia, has been sentenced to four years in prison on charges of “undesirable” activities, his team said July 15. (MT, 07.15.22)
• Russian health officials said the first case of monkeypox has been detected in the country, attributing it to a "young man" with a mild form of the disease. (RFE/RL, 07.12.22)
• "Over the course of the past week, there has been a 57% rise in new cases of COVID-19 compared to the previous week," Moscow social services wrote on Telegram July 12. (MT/AFP, 07.12.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian defense manufacturer UralVagonZavod is reportedly running triple shifts to refurbish old tanks. Ammunition supplies are being partly replenished from a massive storage depot in Belarus. (FT, 07.11.22)
•  See section Military and guerilla aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The number of financial fraud schemes in Russia tripled in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period last year, the Russian Central Bank said July 13. (MT, 07.13.22)
• In March-May 2022, European countries 43 times refused to extradite to Russia people whose extradition is sought by the Prosecutor General's office, three time more than in January-February 2022. (Meduza, 07.12.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said July 14 he'd resign after a fracture in his unity government. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he has firmly backed sanctions against Russia and helped Italy scramble to find alternative energy sources. (WP, 07.14.22)
• Russia does not plan to close trade missions in unfriendly states, though the country intends to recalibrate their work, Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said addressing the State Duma before being appointed Deputy Prime Minister on July 15. (TASS, 07.15.22)
• A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed by Rosenergoatom, Rosatom Training Academy and the Agency for Nuclear Power Engineering Development at the Ministry of Energy in Uzbekistan to develop the national nuclear infrastructure of Uzbekistan. Rosatom also signed an MoU with Myanmar's Ministry of Science and Technology covering cooperation in training and skills development in the field of nuclear energy. (WNN, 07.14.22)

Ukraine:

• Westinghouse Electric Company has signed a contract with Energoatom to provide AP1000 plant technical information to help with the Ukrainian firm's feasibility study for the two new reactors planned for the Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant. (WNN, 07.12.22)
• Ukraine’s State Investigative Bureau destroyed secret documents pertaining to major criminal cases, including against leading political figures, hours before and after Russia’s invasion in February. It is unclear whether the documents were destroyed to prevent them from falling into the hands of Russian forces or to hinder prosecution of the cases. (RFE/RL, 07.09.22)
• Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry released a blistering statement Saturday accusing the first and only Ukraine-born U.S. lawmaker of playing politics over Russia’s war. The extraordinary statement comes after Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) asked Biden to brief Congress on years-old allegations against Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Spartz alleges Yermak sought to “prevent Ukraine from properly preparing for the war” with Russia. (Politico, 07.09.22)
• Poland's leaders marked the anniversary of the World War II-era Ukrainian massacre of Poles. (The Boston Globe, 07.12.22)
• Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man, announced on July 11 that he would surrender licenses of top television channels to the government and shut down both print and internet media to comply with so-called “de-oligarchization” legislation aimed at curbing the influence of oligarchs. (FT, 07.11.22)
• France marked Bastille Day with a traditional military parade in Paris that this year served as a salute to Ukraine's resistance to Russia's brutal invasion. (RFE/RL, 07.14.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Secretary General Zhang Ming has confirmed Belarus's application for the admission to the organization as a member state. (Interfax, 07.15.22)
• The number of migrants attempting to cross the border from Belarus into Poland has declined by from 1,766 in March to 596 in June since Polish authorities built a wall along the frontier. (RFE/RL, 07.11.22)
• The leaders of Armenia and Turkey have pledged during a phone call to build on a recently established process aimed at normalizing travel, trade and diplomatic relations between their two countries. (RFE/RL, 07.12.22)
• Belarusian journalist Katsyaryna Andreyeva, who is serving a two-year prison sentence for covering protests against authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, has been sentenced to eight years in prison on new charges of high treason. (RFE/RL, 07.13.22)
• Moldova's National Anti-Corruption Center said on July 13 that it had searched the home of former parliament speaker Andrian Candu and three other properties owned by him as part of an investigation into allegations of "unjust enrichment." (RFE/RL, 07.13.22)
• The European Commission will delay its next assessment of Georgia's progress toward meeting the priorities required before it can be considered for EU membership. The commission will now assess Georgia's implementation of required steps sometime in 2023 and not in December of this year as originally intended. (RFE/RL, 07.14.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

 

V. Useful charts and tables

The Levada Center asked respondents across Russia in late May the following open question: “Who do you think Vladimir Putin had in mind when he spoke about the ‘so-called fifth column,’ ‘national traitors’ who help the West in the fight against Russia?”

Answers given:

Answer	Percent of respondents
America, U.S., Biden	9
Europe, European Union, Poland, Germany, Great Britain, France, Baltic States, unfriendly countries, West, European politicians	6
Artists, stars who left and criticize Russia, Galkin, Pugacheva, Urgant, Khamatova, Makarevich, the glamorous circle	6
Oligarchs, businessmen who fled Russia, big business, the rich, the rich, the elite, Fridman, Potanin, Mordashev, Chubais	6
Ukraine, Azov, Ukrainian authorities, Zelensky	5
Navalny and his associates	5
Bandera, Nazis, nationalists, terrorists	5
Opposition, non-systemic opposition, all those who are against the “special operation,” those who disagree, those who disagree with it, those who are dissatisfied, are against the authorities	4
Government, deputies, Gref, Nabiulina, Siluanov, Kudrin, Putin's critics in the government, Kadyrov	3
Journalists, bloggers, online publications critical of Russia, media, Dud, Ekho, Shenderovich	3
Who criticizes Russia, does not love Russia, harms Russia, prevents us from living, slanders Russia	3
Kasparov, Yashin, Khodorkovsky, Ponomarev, Sobchak, Yabloko, etc.	2
Liberals, Democrats	2
Foreign agents, NPOs with foreign funding, dependent on the West, funded by the West, oriented to the West, promoters of Western ideas, the paid, help the West	2
Western undercover agents, traitors	2
All those who left, Russians living abroad, emigrants, fled the country, who have money in the West, defectors	2
Intelligentsia, masters of culture, science and art	2
NATO	2
Thieves, corrupt officials, embezzlers	1
Other	5
Difficult to answer, I do not know, no idea	46