6 Things to Know

1. The largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War occurred on Aug. 1. As many as 24 people were freed in the exchange of individuals among seven countries—Russia and Belarus on one side, and the United States, Germany, Slovenia, Poland and Norway on the other. Russia released 16 prisoners, including WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich, former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, RFE/RL reporter Alsu Kurmasheva and Russian dissidents Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin. In return, a total of 10 people, including two children, were transferred from the West to Russia. They included Vadim Krasikov, an FSB hitman convicted of murdering a former Chechen rebel in Germany in 2021, and Vladislav Klyushin, a Russian millionaire imprisoned after being convicted for hacking and insider trading in Boston.^[1] The Aug. 1 swap may have set a post-Cold War record in the exchange of prisoners between Russia and the West, but it is important to keep in mind that officials on both sideshave made it clear that the event should not be interpreted as evidence that Russian-Western relations are beginning to thaw.* 
2. Ukraine wants a second leaders’ summit expected later this year to pave the way for the end of fighting, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak as quoted by Bloomberg on Aug. 1. One day prior to Yermak’s statement, his boss was quoted as saying that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia within the framework of the second peace summit, which Kyiv wants to hold before the US elections in November, may be held even if Russian forces have not yet withdrawn their troops from all Ukrainian territory. Zelenskyy also said that territorial concessions to end the war started by Vladimir Putin would require the backing of a referendum in Ukraine. In spite of these signals from Kyiv, Moscow has so far been noncommittal about participating in a second peace summit, though the Kremlin has recently hinted it could enter negotiations even if Ukraine doesn’t fulfill Putin’s June demands to withdraw from the regions that Moscow has claimed as own and drop aspirations to join NATO, according to WP. Zelenskyy and his staff are not only signaling readiness for peace talks with Russia, which is something that the Ukrainian president banned back in Fall 2022. They are also describing how Ukraine could theoretically concede some territories (through a referendum). 
3. The Russian armed forces gained 198 square kilometers, or an average of 6.6 square kilometers per day, of Ukrainian land in July, according to AFP’s analysis of data provided by the Institute for the Study of War. In comparison, Russian forces seized 449 square kilometers, an average of 14.5 square kilometers per day, in May. They then seized 129 square kilometers, or 4.3 square kilometers per day, in June, according to AFP’s analysis. According to Russian war blogger, voeynkorKotenkok, the pace of Russian advances had slowed down so much that at this rate Russia will establish control over the entire territory of the Donetsk region in two years. He attributed the slowdown to lack of manpower, poor skills of some of the tactical-level commanding officers, and the Ukrainian army’s dominance in the sphere of UAV. If AFP’s estimate is accurate, then it means the Russian army’s daily rate of advance decreased by 75% in May–July. 
4. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been drafting up to 30,000 people a month since May, which is two to three times more than during the last winter months, according to estimates by military experts interviewed by NYT. Large numbers of recruits will arrive at the front in the coming weeks, but some are poorly trained or out of shape, according to NYT’s interviewees. The recruits include almost 4,000 convicts, according to Ukraine’s Korrespondent.
5. The first delivery of F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg. The Biden administration has agreed to arm the jets, which are meant to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses, with U.S. weapons, including AGM-88 HARM air-to-ground missiles, according to WSJ. So far only a small number of F-16s has reportedly arrived in Ukraine. Moreover, only 20 Ukrainian airmen are expected to be ready this year to fly F-16s after completing their training in the West. This means that the Ukrainian air force will be able to fly only about 10 F-16s, at most, on combat missions this year, as there should be at least two pilots per aircraft, according to NYT.  Contrast this estimate with some earlier commentary, in which F-16s have been described as a “game-changer” that would hopefully “mark a turning point in this war.”
6. Russia's military on July 31 announced the start of a "third phase" in wider non-strategic nuclear weapon exercises that first began in the spring and that now have spread to the occupied territories of Ukraine, according to MT. The Defense Ministry said the exercises were taking place in the central and southern military districts—which include annexed Crimea—as well as the four partially occupied regions of southern and eastern Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed, MT reported.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The water level in the cooling pond of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant continues to drop due to the heat, said Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency. It was also noted that if this trend continues, pumping water from the pond will soon become problematic. (Korrespondent.net, 08.02.24)
• Siberian Chemical Combine, Russia’s largest nuclear fuel cycle site located in Seversk, Tomsk Region, awarded the contract for “Consulting on the Structure, Location and Technical Specifications for Special Technical Means of Counteraction to Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.” (D. Kovchegin’s Russian Nuclear Security Update, 07.29.24)
• Rosatom’s fuel division has begun implementing a contract for the supply of nuclear fuel for power units No. 3 and No. 4 of the Kudankulam NPP in India. (Rosatom, 07.31.24)
• Work has begun to assess changes in the properties of the metal of the reactor vessel of unit 2 at the Metsamor nuclear power plant in Armenia. The work is being carried out as part of preparations for extending operation of the VVER-440 unit for a further 10 years. (WNN, 07.31.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea may be considering a nuclear test near the time the U.S. presidential election is held to raise its profile, South Korea’s defense minister said, as Kim Jong Un rolls out new warheads capable of striking the U.S. and its allies in Asia. (Bloomberg, 07.28.24)
• North Korea-focused outlet NK Pro reported on July 26 that satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is intensifying its production of anti-tank missiles, likely due to growing Russian interest in procuring North Korean munitions. (ISW, 07.30.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukraine has received the bodies of 250 dead soldiers, the country's prisoner of war coordination headquarters said. Russia has returned the bodies of 38 people. (Media Zone, 08.02.24)
• A member of Ukraine’s Azov battalion has died in Russian custody. Oleksandr Ishchenko was among 24 former and current Azov members, including nine women, who were arrested in southern Russia on terrorism charges in March-May 2022. (MT/AFP, 07.31.24)
• In addition to IMF financial aid, Ukraine will need some $12-15 billion from its partners for 2025 due to the continuation of the war into next year, according to Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko. (Korrespondent.net, 07.30.24)
• U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine's Economic Recovery Penny Pritzker on July 31 outlined a five-step plan to make Ukraine's economy more attractive to private sector investment. Pritzker cited a World Bank estimate from spring of this year that Ukraine's recovery will cost at least $486 billion, but she said this came out prior to the increased fighting in March and the summer. She noted that in 2023, Ukrainian GDP grew 5% and tax revenue was up 25%. (RFE/RL, 07.31.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• The Russian armed forces gained Russian forces conquered 198 square kilometers , or an average of 6.6 square kilometers per day, of Ukrainian land in July, according to AFP’s analysis of data provided by the Institute for the Study of War. More than three-quarters of these July gains were made in the eastern region of Donetsk. In comparison, Russian forces seized 449 square kilometers, an average of 14.5 square kilometers per day in May. They then seized 129 square kilometers, or 4.3 square kilometers per day in June, according to AFP’s analysis. (AFP, 07.31.24) If AFP’s estimate is accurate, then it means the Russian army’s daily rate of advance decreased by 75% in May–July.
  • Russia will no longer be able to capture Kharkiv, and the occupiers have changed their target, with their new priority now being the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (RBC.ua, 08.01.24)
  • According to Russian war blogger, voeynkorKotenkok, the pace of Russian advances had slowed down in the east while Russian forces are standing still in the south. “We are slowly crawling west from Donetsk,” Kotenok wrote on July 29 in his Telegram account. “At this rate we will clear the Donetsk region in ...2 years!,” Kotenok wrote.  “In the Kharkov [direction] we are fighting off with heavy losses ...[and we] are crawling in the Svatovo-Kupyansk [direction]. [Russian troops in the] Zaporizhia and Dnepr [directions] are standing still,” he wrote. Kotenok attributed the slowdown of Russian offensive partially to lack of soldiers. “There are no people. The level of casualties is high,” he wrote. “For those who don't understand - there is physically no one to go on offensive with.” In addition to lack of manpower Kotenok also attributed the setbacks to the “level [of commanding skills]  of a number of tactical level commanders being below the baseboard.” He also attributed Russian forces’ inability to make significant advances to Ukraine’s “domination in the sphere of unmanned aerial vehicles,” which allows the Ukrainian forces to timely detect the Russian military’s attempts to attack. (RM, 07.29.24)
• On July 27, Russia claimed the capture of another village in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region where there is heavy fighting as Moscow's forces advance toward the city of Pokrovsk. The Defense ministry said Russian troops "liberated" the village of Lozuvatske, about 24 kilometers (15 miles) east of Pokrovsk and near the Russian-occupied small town of Ocheretnye. Ukraine has not confirmed the village's capture. (MT/AFP, 07.27.24)
• On July 27, Ukrainian drones were reported to have hit a fighter jet parked at an airfield deep inside Russian territory. The unmanned aerial vehicles launched by Kyiv’s military intelligence reached the target, a Tupolev Tu-22M3 supersonic long-range missile carrier, at the Olenya base on the Kola Peninsula in Russia’s north. The base has been used for launches by Russia, including of jets used to bombard targets in Ukraine some 1,200 miles to the south. Ukraine's military intelligence claimed responsibility. (Bloomberg, 07.28.24, RFE/RL, 07.27.24)
• On July 28, Ukrainian military drones were reported to have struck an oil storage depot in Russia’s Kursk region, where 82 firefighters and 32 units of equipment were involved in fighting the fire. (RFE/RL, 07.28.24)
• On the night of July 28 to 29, Ukrainian drones struck Russian energy and utility infrastructure in Oryol, Voronezh and Belgorod oblasts. (ISW, 07.29.24)
• On July 29, Russian forces likely seized the entire Vovchansk Aggregate Plant in Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) and continued ground attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast. (ISW, 07.29.24)
• On July 29, at least four civilians were reported to have been killed in Russian shelling of the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. (RFE/RL, 07.30.24)
• On July 29, Russian forces conducted five platoon- to battalion-sized mechanized assaults in western Donetsk Oblast. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced on the southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) during a reinforced-battalion sized mechanized assault. (ISW, 07.30.24)
• On the night of July 30-31, Ukrainian forces struck a weapons and equipment warehouse in Kursk City. (ISW,07.31.24)
• On the night of July 30-31, Russia launched almost 90 drones against Ukraine in one of its largest attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. The overnight attack mainly targeted Kyiv, where more than 30 drones were shot down, according to Ukraine’s air defense forces. Kyiv city administration head Serhiy Popko described it as “one of the most massive drone attacks on Ukraine during the entire war,” while noting that none reached their targets. Authorities said 13 houses in the Kyiv region were hit by falling debris and the rest of the drones were downed outside of residential areas. It was the first nationwide attack since July 8. (FT, 07.31.24)
• On July 31 the Russian armed forces were reported by Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState’s Telegram channel to have occupied Tymofiivka. (RM, 08.02.24)
• On July 31, Russian air defense forces were reported to have downed 19 Ukrainian drones and one cruise missile over regions in the western and southern parts of the country. (MT/AFP, 07.31.24)
• On Aug. 1, Russian forces continued to make slow, steady advances in the Pokrovsk direction (west of Avdiivka), largely enabled by Ukrainian manpower shortages and the terrain in the area immediately northwest of Avdiivka. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that Ukrainian defenders in the Pokrovsk direction have inferior equipment and defensive means and are therefore currently unable to slow Russian advances. Russian forces have also recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar and Donetsk City. (ISW, 08.01.24)
• On Aug. 1, the Russian armed forces were reported by Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState’s Telegram channel to have occupied Vesele. (RM, 08.02.24)
• On Aug. 1, Russian shelling and drone strikes killed more Ukrainian civilians in several frontline regions, officials reported. (RFE/RL, 08.01.24)
• Three military experts with knowledge of the figures said that Kyiv had been drafting up to 30,000 people a month since May, when a new conscription law took effect. That is two to three times more than during the last winter months, they said, and about the same number that the Russian Army is recruiting each month. Large numbers of recruits will arrive at the front in the coming weeks, soldiers and military analysts said, but some are poorly trained or out of shape. (NYT, 07.30.24)
  • The law on the mobilization of convicted persons adopted by the Verkhovna Rada provides for the possibility of joining the army not only for men, but also for women. However, convicted women did not express a desire to mobilize into the army. When adopting this law, parliamentarians hoped that 5,000-10,000 people would leave prisons for the front. So far, in the first wave, almost 4,000 have joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine. (Korrespondent.net, 08.01.24)
• A Ukraine-based paramilitary unit of Russian citizens opposed to the Kremlin announced that it was breaking ties with former Russian lawmaker turned opposition figure Ilya Ponomaryov. The Freedom of Russia Legion said in a statement that it would “unilaterally revoke” its signature from the Irpin Declaration, “thereby terminating participation in any political projects.” The Irpin Declaration, signed in August 2022, is a cooperative agreement between anti-Kremlin paramilitary units fighting on the side of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 07.31.24)
  • Ponomaryov was injured in a drone strike at his home outside Kyiv on Aug. 1, in what appears to have been an assassination attempt. (MT/AFP, 08.01.24)
  • A Russian military court on July 30 sentenced a man to 14 years in prison on treason charges for allegedly planning an attack after joining a banned pro-Ukrainian militia unit. Artem Sanzharaev was accused of being a member of the Freedom of Russia Legion. (MT/AFP, 07.30.24)
• Putin ordered officials to double a bonus for people willing to join Russia’s war in Ukraine, offering fresh evidence that the military is struggling to meet recruitment targets. New recruits to the army will receive a one-time payment of 400,000 rubles (around $4,600) until the end of the year, according to a presidential order published July 31. (Bloomberg, 07.31.24)
• Russia’s lower-house State Duma on July 31 rejected a bill that would have granted draft deferments to men with three or more children, as some families demand a return of their loved ones from Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 07.31.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The United States on July 29 announced two assistance packages for Ukraine valued at $1.7 billion. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the presidential package, valued at up to $200 million, will include air-defense interceptors, munitions for HIMARS, artillery and mortar rounds and Javelin and other anti-tank missiles. The U.S. Defense Department also announced $1.5 billion through the security-assistance-initiative funds. (RFE/RL, 07.29.24)
• The first delivery of F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine, in a long-awaited move that may boost the war-torn nation’s ability to repel Russian attacks. The deadline for the transfer of the U.S.-made warplanes was the end of this month and it has been respected, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke under condition of anonymity. The number of jets is small, they said. (Bloomberg, 07.31.24)
  • The U.S. has agreed to arm dozens of F-16 jet fighters being sent to Ukraine with American-made missiles and other advanced weapons, addressing a longstanding question about the Western aircraft. The weapons for the F-16 that the U.S. is sending include AGM-88 HARM air-to-ground missiles; the extended-range versions of Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, which convert unguided bombs to smart weapons; and so-called small diameter bombs that explode with a tight blast radius. There are discussions under way about European countries sending contractors to help maintain the F-16s. (WSJ, 07.30.24)
  • About 20 Ukrainian airmen in the various U.S., Dutch and Danish training pipelines are expected to be ready this year to fly F-16s, according to U.S. officials. Air commanders say they typically allot at least two pilots per aircraft — for crew rest, training and other matters. So that would allow Ukraine to fly only about 10 F-16s, at most, on combat missions this year. Another major limiting factor, these officials say, is the number of trained maintenance and support personnel on the ground to keep the F-16s flying. (NYT, 07.28.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International AG said it is stepping up efforts to reduce business in Russia, after facing increased scrutiny of its most profitable unit from regulators. The bank warned that future dividend payments would be impacted by efforts to accelerate its exit from Russia. Group operating profit for the first half increased 7% from the same period a year ago, to €1.324 billion. Of that, €720 million came from Russia and Belarus. (FT, 07.30.24, Bloomberg, 07.30.24)
• The Estonian government on Aug. 1 revealed plans to introduce full customs controls on its border with Russia to combat sanctions evasion, with the measures scheduled to go into effect Aug. 8. (MT/AFP, 08.01.24)
• Russian billionaire Petr Aven’s estate manager has agreed to forfeit more than £750,000 ($963,260) to end a near-two year investigation by British police over sanctions dodging. Thousands of pounds in cash seized at Aven’s mansion outside London was also handed over under “proceeds of crime.” The NCA had accused Aven of being a “pro-Kremlin oligarch” who’d acquired his wealth in the last days of the Soviet regime, an allegation denied by his lawyers. (Bloomberg, 07.29.24)
• A castle owned by businessman of Russian origin Alexey Fedorichev has been seized in Italy. This was reported by the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) on July 31. "By decision of the competent authorities of Italy, a castle worth 41 million euros in Florence has been seized, which is material evidence in the case of causing more than $60 million in losses to the State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine," the report says. (Korrespondent.net, 07.31.24)
• For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Zelenskyy promises to develop a Ukrainian peace plan by the end of November this year, when the Second Peace Summit is to take place. "Patience, support and diplomatic pressure are three factors for a fair end to the war [with Russia, - ed.]," Zelenskyy said on July 26 in an interview with NHK. In a subsequent interview to French media, Zelenskyy said that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia within the framework of the second Peace Summit may begin even if the Russian forces have not yet withdrawn their troops from all Ukrainian territory. Zelenskyy emphasized that the Ukrainian government does not have the right to unilaterally renounce Ukrainian territory, stating that this would violate the Ukrainian constitution because this decision must take into account the will of the Ukrainian people. (RBC.ua, 08.01.24, Korrespondent.net, 07.30.24, ISW, 08.01.24)
  • Ukraine wants a second leaders’ summit expected later this year to pave the way for the end of fighting, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak said. (Bloomberg, 08.01.24)
  • Russia has so far been noncommittal about participating in a second peace summit. But the Kremlin has also signaled in recent weeks that it could enter negotiations even if Kyiv doesn’t fulfill Putin’s June demands. Putin said in June that he would enter negotiations if Kyiv withdrew from the regions that Moscow has claimed and dropped aspirations to join NATO. (WP, 07.31.24)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said July 27 he "does not listen" to what he called Ukraine's contradictory statements on peace talks. Lavrov spoke after Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China for talks last week. Zelenskyy then said Beijing sent a "clear signal" it supported Ukraine's territorial integrity. (MT/AFP, 07.27.24)
• Beijing sent its special envoy Li Hui to Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia to “build up conditions to resume peace talks” — countries that have also skipped imposing U.S.-led sanctions on Russia. On July 29, Li visited Brazil and exchanged views on the Ukrainian crisis. The "six-point consensus" jointly issued by China and Brazil on promoting a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis has received positive responses from more than 110 countries. (Chinese Foreign Ministry, 08.01.24, Bloomberg, 07.29.24)
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni trumpeted China’s potential for helping bring an end to Russia’s grinding war in Ukraine. While Meloni said Beijing’s backing of the Russian industrial complex was an area of “great friction,” she cited President Xi Jinping’s government as an important stakeholder in finding a solution to the conflict at a press briefing in Beijing July 30. (Bloomberg, 07.30.24)
• In mid-July, a survey by the Ukrainian independent media outlet ZN.UA found that about 44% of Ukrainian civilians favored starting official talks with Russia. On July 23, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released a poll showing that nearly a third of Ukrainians would agree to cede some territory to Russia to end the war. That’s more than three times as many as the year before. (WP, 07.31.24)^[2]
• According to a study conducted in May 2024, 57% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should enter into negotiations with Russia to try to achieve peace. At the same time, 66% of respondents believe that Ukraine should return the territories under its control before 2014, including Donbas and Crimea. The number of those who support negotiations with Russia has increased by 15% compared to November 2023 and returned to the results of the May 2022 survey. Then 59% of Ukrainians surveyed answered that Ukraine should enter into negotiations with Russia to try to achieve peace. Additionally, 66% of respondents said that Ukraine should return the territory under its control before 2014, including Donbas and Crimea, while 60% of respondents consider it "completely unacceptable" that Ukraine only lay claim to the territory under its control now. Also, 74% and 76% of respondents do not agree that Ukraine should abandon its membership in NATO or the EU for the sake of peace. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.02.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• America’s military position is eroding. That is the message of a report published on July 29 by a bipartisan commission, which has been chaired by Jane Harman with Eric Edelman deputizing and which has been entrusted by Congress with scrutinizing the Biden administration’s national defense strategy (NDS). In 2018 the previous such commission had warned that America “might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia.” This time the language is starker. The threats to America, including “the potential for near-term major war,” are the most serious since 1945, it says. The country is both unaware of their extent and unprepared to meet them. Russia is a lesser concern than China but, despite its quagmire in Ukraine, still poses a serious threat. (The Economist, 07.29.24)
• Putin said: “Today, we are paying increasing attention to Washington’s efforts to escalate tensions in connection with the flights by Russian strategic aircraft. Just to remind you, Russian strategic missile carriers have not performed any air patrols far from our borders since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia thought this was no longer needed, with the world having changed and the Cold War becoming a thing of the past. However, the United States chose to ignore this unilateral gesture of goodwill and continued patrolling the space in the proximity of our borders. So, since 2007, we have resumed such flights as a response to the increased activity from U.S. strategic and reconnaissance aircraft in the regions that we believe are sensitive for us. The move has aimed, among other things, to ensure security in the Asia-Pacific region.” (Kremlin.ru, 07.28.24)
• In three to five years — the time Moscow will need to reconstitute its battered forces — strategists believe the Kremlin will gear up to intensify a payback campaign that has already begun with sabotage attacks in Europe, and might also target the United States. "At the end of a conflict in Ukraine — however, it concludes — we are going to have a very big Russia problem," U.S. Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the supreme allied commander in Europe, told the Aspen Security Forum this month. "We are going to have a situation where Russia is reconstituting its force, is located on the borders of NATO, is led by largely the same people as it is right now, is convinced that we're the adversary, and is very, very angry." (WP, 07.31.24)
• NATO member state Lithuania is drawing up plans for a mass evacuation of civilians in preparation for the possibility of a war breaking out, the country's Interior Ministry said. The measures are the latest adopted by members of the NATO military alliance to protect against potential Russian attack. (Newsweek, 07.26.24)
• This summer, mysterious intruders have been breaking into Finnish water towers and treatment plants. They’ve stolen nothing, which is unsurprising, since there would be little to steal. But there are other reasons people might want to break into water treatment plants: to scout them out for future attacks—or to cause the public to worry about the safety of the water in their tap. So far, the Finnish authorities have not apprehended any suspects. The break-in campaign, though, is a prime example of the nonmilitary aggression that Russia has perfected. (FP, 07.26.24)
• Russia is surpassing NATO in the Arctic, with one-third more military bases in the Arctic than all NATO members put together. (RFE/RL, 07.29.24)
• In Romania, on July 31, as part of a search operation at locations where drone debris was suspected to have fallen following a Russian Shahed drone attack on Ukraine, new fragments of unmanned aerial vehicles were discovered near Chatalchioi in Tulcea County, according to the Romanian Defense Ministry. (RBC.ua, 08.01.24)
• U.S. claims to a vast section of the seabed floor — and the potential resources buried within — have no basis in international law and should be rejected, according to government representatives from Russia and China. The comments came during a debate at a session of the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica, in response to recent claims by the U.S. that would add about 1 million square kilometers (386,100 square miles) to its continental shelf in the Bering Sea, Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. (Bloomberg, 07.29.24)
• The U.S. will establish a new military command in Japan to bolster security ties there as Washington moves to strengthen its Asia allies in the face of China's military buildup. (WSJ, 07.28.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• China has adjusted its export controls on drones intended for military use, as Beijing faces growing criticism from the U.S. and its allies over bolstering Russia’s battlefield efforts in Ukraine. Drones with high-precision measurement equipment were added to a blacklist by a range of agencies including the Central Military Commission. The changes modify a list published last year and will take effect from Sept. 1. (Bloomberg, 07.31.24)
• Malaysia’s foreign ministry said Russia will back the Southeast Asian country’s application to join the BRICS economic bloc as Moscow looks to expand its influence into the Global South. Lavrov made the assurance to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim during his two-day visit to Malaysia that ended July 28, Malaysia’s foreign ministry said. (Bloomberg, 07.28.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Russia's military on July 31 announced the start of a "third phase" in wider non-strategic nuclear weapon exercises that first began in the spring. The Defense Ministry said the exercises were taking place in the central and southern military districts — which include several North Caucasus republics and annexed Crimea — as well as four partially occupied regions of southern and eastern Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed. "As part of this exercise phase, personnel from the missile formations of the Southern and Central Military Districts will complete combat training tasks, including acquiring special training ammunition for the Iskander-M tactical missile systems," the Defense Ministry said in a statement. Servicemen will also be instructed in "equipping launch vehicles and covertly advancing to designated positions to prepare for electronic launches," the statement added. (MT/AFP, 07.31.24)
• Putin said: “The U.S. administration and the German government made a noteworthy statement concerning their plans to deploy U.S. long-range precision missile systems in Germany in 2026. The missiles could reach ranges of major Russian state and military facilities, administrative and industrial centers, and defense infrastructure. The flight time to targets on our territory of such missiles, which in the future may be equipped with nuclear warheads, would be about ten minutes. If the United States implements these plans, we will consider ourselves free from the previously assumed unilateral moratorium on the deployment of medium and shorter-range strike weapons, including increasing the capabilities of the coastal troops of our Navy.” (Kremlin.ru, 07.28.24)
  • Germany said on July 29 it was not deterred by Putin's threats to relaunch production of intermediate-range nuclear weapons if the United States confirms its intention to deploy missiles to Europe. "We will not be intimidated by such statements," foreign ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said. (MT/AFP, 07.29.24)
• “We remain consistently committed to the principle that a nuclear war cannot be won, and must never be fought, which the N5 States reaffirmed in January 2022 in their joint statement. It is essential that the actions of the three Western states are consistent with this statement in all its entirety, including with the obligation to avoid military confrontations among the nuclear powers and to acknowledge each other’s security interests. However, that is what the Western states have failed to do,” said Deputy Head of the Delegation of the Russian Federation at the Second Session of the Preparatory Committee for the 11th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on significant developments. (Russian Foreign Ministry, 07.25.24)
• Beijing, the only one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council that has committed to not using nuclear weapons first, has called in Geneva for the others to match that pledge and has also denounced Washington’s arrangements for deterring attacks on its allies. In its formal proposal, China said a nuclear “no first use” policy was “increasingly becoming an important consensus and priority” in international arms control. But officials of the U.S. and allied nations and analysts said Beijing’s proposal and censure of the U.S. and its allies were an attempt to blunt western criticism of its own nuclear arms build-up. (FT, 08.02.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov stated on July 31 that the Crocus City Hall and Dagestan attacks challenged Russian law enforcement and society and showed that the Russian government has made "mistakes" in its counter-terrorism policies. Krasnov stated that the Russian government needs to inspect its policies and respond to terrorist threats in a "fundamentally different way." (ISW, 07.31.24)
• A Belgian judge ordered three Chechens jailed on terrorism-related charges, a day after police launched country-wide raids over fears of a possible attack. Six people in all appeared before the judge on July 26. Prosecutors said the judge found the three to be suspected members of an offshoot of the Islamic State extremist group, known as Islamic State Khorasan. The July 25 police raids were carried out in Brussels, and four other major cities, under judicial warrants. (RFE/RL, 07.27.24)
• Prosecutors have asked a military court in Russia to sentence two alleged members of the late Chechen field commander Shamil Basayev's group to 24 years in prison each over their alleged participation in a terrorist attack in Chechnya in 2005. (RFE/RL, 07.29.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• According to Kyiv Post's sources in the Ukrainian special service, at the end of July 2024, the "Khimik" group carried out another attack on the positions of the Russian Federation in Syria. The target of the attack was Russian military equipment at the Kuweires airbase, which is located east of Aleppo and occupied by Russian forces. (Kyiv Post, 07.31.24)

Cyber security/AI: 

• By the evening of July 30, cyber specialists of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry claimed to have completed one of the largest DDOS attacks in history on the Internet infrastructure of the Russian Federation. They managed to hit critical resources and gain access to a large array of confidential data, sources in Ukrainian intelligence claimed. In particular, VTB Bank, Alfa Bank, SebrBank, Raiffeisen Bank, RSHB Bank, AK Bars, Rosbank, Gazprombank, T-Bank, iBank, Dom.rf Bank and the Bank of Russia were affected, these sources claimed. (RBC.ua, 07.31.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s four-week average crude exports dropped to the lowest since late August of last year amid a plunge that’s cut 710,000 barrels a day from the recent peak in April. The slump comes despite a small increase in weekly flows. The decline — the fourth straight — likely stems from Russia’s improving compliance with an OPEC+ output target, coupled with a recovery in domestic refining. (Bloomberg, 07.30.24)
• Brussels has told Hungary and Slovakia to wean themselves off Russian oil and seek alternative sources after they complained that Ukraine was blocking supplies from Russia. In a letter to Budapest and Bratislava seen by FT, EU trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said that “diversification away from Russian fossil fuels should be actively pursued.” (FT, 08.01.24)
  • Hungary has rejected an offer from Croatia to use its pipeline system as an alternative to Russian oil imports, escalating a multipronged conflict with the EU. (FT, 08.02.24)
  • Ukraine should consider the implications of moves like its recent transit ban of crude from a major Russian supplier on its neighbors such as Hungary and Slovakia, Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel said on July 30. (Bloomberg, 07.30.24)
• Russia’s biggest producer of liquefied natural gas in June cut processing at its Arctic LNG 2 facility to the lowest level since February, after U.S. sanctions curtailed export options. The Novatek PJSC-led plant, processed slightly more than 8 million cubic meters of gas last month, according to a person with knowledge of industry data. That’s nearly half of the runs in May, a comparison with past figures shows. While the data don’t specify that the volumes were liquefied, similar information for Novatek’s operational Yamal LNG project would suggest that’s the case. (Bloomberg, 07.29.24)
• Experts have suggested a plan to replace Russian gas flowing to Europe through Ukraine with gas from Azerbaijan risks becoming a conduit for the disguised export of fuel from Russia. Gas from Russia is pumped to Europe through pipelines that transit Ukraine. Kyiv is considering trying to replace that supply with Azeri gas. But that replacement fuel would probably have to travel through Russia and Ukraine to reach Europe — and Baku would only be able to provide a small proportion of the quantity now reaching the continent from Russia, raising questions about how the scheme would operate in practice. (FT, 07.28.24)
• The energy crisis in Europe is finally over, the chief executive of Shell signaled, as market prices and volatility return to levels before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  “We have seen that across the energy complex this quarter, maybe more so than any of the previous ones in recent times, that we are moving back to a normalized price and margin level that is pre-2022,” said Wael Sawan in an interview with the Financial Times, adding that gas, crude and power prices had all dropped back and become more stable. (FT, 08.01.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• On Aug. 1, 2024, 24 people were freed in an exchange of prisoners held in seven countries—Russia and Belarus on one side, and the United States, Germany, Slovenia, Poland and Norway on the other. Russia released 16 prisoners in the largest prisoner swap with Russia since the Cold War. Among those released by Russia were WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich; Paul Whelan, a former U.S. marine serving a sentence for espionage; Russian dissident Ilya Yashin; RFE/RL reporter Alsu Kurmasheva; and Russian opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza. In return, a total of 10 people, including two children, were transferred from the West to Russia. They included Vadim Krasikov, a hitman convicted of murdering former Chechen rebel Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in broad daylight in Berlin in 2019; Vladislav Klyushin, a Russian millionaire imprisoned after being convicted for hacking and insider trading in Boston last year; Artem Dultsev, Anna Dultseva, Pavel Rubtsov, Vadim Konoshchenok, Mikhail Mikushin, and Roman Seleznev. (FT,08.02.24, WP, 08.02.24, WP, 08.02.24, BG, 08.02.24, Meduza, 08.01.24)^[3]
  • In January, the deal was set in motion with a phone call between Biden and Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The U.S. team had realized that a deal to secure the prisoners’ release would only happen if they could convince Germany’s chancellor to free Vadim Krasikov, a Russian serving a life sentence for the murder of a Chechen dissident in a Berlin park in 2019. Germany had long balked at the idea of including Krasikov, but during a visit to Washington on Feb. 9, the chancellor said, “For you, I will do this,” Scholz told Biden. (FT,08.02.24)
  • As U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris was nearing the end of her meeting with Scholz at the Munich Security Conference in February, she raised the matter. Harris also tasked her staff with setting up a meeting with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob at Munich upon learning that the country had detained two Russians on suspicion of espionage. (FP, 08.01.24)
  • In early July, CIA Director William J. Burns spoke to one of his Russian counterparts and learned that, in principle, Moscow had agreed to a deal. “At that point, we were off to the races,” the official said.” (Washington Post, 08.01.24)
  • On July 21, just an hour before Biden issued a statement that he would not seek re-election in November, he called Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob to finalize the pardon of the two Russians in Slovenian custody as part of the exchange. The day before, on Saturday, July 20, Biden’s national security adviser John Sullivan worked the phones to bring together the deal. He was talking with his counterpart from Slovenia, which had agreed in principle to release two Russians held by that Balkan country as part of the swap to free WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich and the others held by Moscow. (FT, 08.02.24, NYT, 08.02.24)
    • The family of the Chechen field commander Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, who was killed in Berlin, was not informed by the German authorities about the release of Vadim Krasikov. (Istories, 08.02.24)
  • Biden and Harris welcomed home Gershkovich, Whelan and other Americans freed. Biden took a salute from Whelan before embracing him, and clasped Gershkovich and fellow journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, who holds dual Russian and U.S. citizenship, after their plane landed just before midnight at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. (Bloomberg, 08.01.24)
    • Biden at Joint Base Andrews responded to the criticism that the prisoner swap could provide incentive to unfriendly nations to detain Americans for their own advantage: "I don't buy this idea that you're … going to let these people rot in jail because other people may be captured," he said. (WP, 08.02.24)
  • On Aug. 1, Harris called Russian opposition figurehead Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, to discuss the Aug. 1 massive Russia-West prisoner exchange, Navalnaya's spokeswoman said. (MT/AFP, 08.02.24)
    • White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States had been working on a prisoner exchange to include Navalny prior to his death. (RFE/RL, 08.01.24)
  • On Aug. 1, Putin at Moscow's Vnukovo airport embraced Vadim Krasikov and shook hands with other Russian nationals detained by the West and flown to Moscow’s Vnukovo-2 airport. At the airport, Putin highlighted some of the operatives' "military" service to the Russian state, promising medals and indicating he would ensure they were well looked after. (WP, 08.02.24, Gazeta.ru, 08.02.24)
  • On Aug. 1, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s security council, wrote in an apparent reference to the political prisoners that “[one wants] traitors to Russia to rot behind bars or kick the bucket in prison, as has happened often.” (FT, 08.02.24)
  • On Aug. 2, Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov swiftly squashed any suggestion that the swap — the most complex since the Cold War — marked any thawing of relations that could open the way for peace talks in the war against Ukraine. (WP, 08.02.24)
  • On Aug. 2, Peskov stated that Krasikov serves in the FSB’s Alfa commando unit. When Krasikov married in 2010, agents of the FSB as well as the FSO, Putin's bodyguard, were in attendance. (WSJ, 08.02.24, Istories, 08.02.24)
  • On Aug. 2, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko claimed that Biden had “nothing to do with” the biggest prisoner exchange between Russia and the West since the Cold War. “You saw it happen, the [prisoners] were released. We were asked [to participate] and we got involved, helped in what ways we could,” Lukashenko was quoted as saying by Belarusian state media. (MT/AFP, 08.02.24)
  • Hundreds of prisoners in Russia — including Americans and prominent Russian political activists, journalists and artists — are still waiting, hoping that another diplomatic agreement or turn of events might secure their release. One of them is Marc Fogel, an American history teacher who worked for almost a decade at the Anglo-American school in Moscow. In 2021, when trying to enter Russia, Fogel was arrested and accused of smuggling drugs after a small amount of medical marijuana was discovered in his luggage. (NYT, 08.02.24)^[4]
• Aides say the core of Harris’ foreign policy would not likely swerve from Biden's robust support for Ukraine and his hard line on China as it seeks to displace the United States as the world's leading superpower. But she is likely to approach global problems differently from Biden, who has longtime personal relationships with leaders such as Putin. That experience shaped his rigid views on many issues, officials say. (NYT, 07.30.24)
  • On Ukraine, Harris hasn't driven policy, but aides say she has led at critical moments with key European allies. In February 2022, five days before Russia's full-scale invasion, Harris was charged with walking Zelenskyy through Western intelligence indicating an attack was days away, pushing the Ukrainian president, who had been publicly dismissive of the threat, to prepare for war. (WP, 07.30.24)
• The U.S. Director of National Intelligence said "foreign actors" are conducting and planning "influence operations" targeting the November elections using increasingly refined tactics "to better hide their hand." The U.S. intelligence community expects Russia, China, and Iran to continue to attempt to influence U.S. politics and policies to "benefit their interests and undermine U.S. democracy and Washington's standing in the world." Russia, China and Iran are all recruiting Americans to spread propaganda advancing their interests ahead of the U.S. presidential election, American intelligence officials said. (RFE/RL, 07.30.24, Bloomberg, 07.29.24)
  • The outcome of the presidential race in the U.S. is for the Americans to deal with, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said. "We will definitely not interfere with internal affairs of this country," the official said. "The question is for voters, who will be elected. Although preliminary information about intellectual abilities of the potential female successor to old [Joe] Biden leaves little room for illusions," he added. (TASS, 07.28.24)
• Users across Russia started experiencing sharp declines in YouTube loading speeds on Aug. 1, according to online monitoring platforms, coming after Russian authorities criticized the video streaming website for failing to restore pro-Kremlin channels. (MT/AFP, 08.01.24)
• Half of Americans are saying that the large number of immigrants and refugees entering the country is a "critical threat" to U.S. interests, up from 42% last fall to the highest level since 2010, according to a poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. In response to a separate question, 44% of Americans said immigration mattered "a great deal" in their decisions of whom to vote for in the presidential election. That ranked behind protecting U.S. democracy (59%), the economy in general (58%) and inflation (53%). Immigration was at about the same level as abortion policies (43%), a little above crime (39%) and well above the Russia-Ukraine war (19%) and the Israel-Gaza war (17%). (WP, 08.02.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russian ecommerce entrepreneur Vladislav Bakalchuk turned not to his country’s courts but a different kind of mediator to try and resolve a bitter shareholder dispute over Russia’s second largest tech company: Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov. He complained to Kadyrov that [Bakalchuk’s] wife and business partner Tatiana had “left home and fallen in with a bad bunch” in an attempt to squeeze him out of Wildberries, the online retailer the couple started in 2004. As the owner of nearly all the shares, Tatiana became Russia’s richest woman, with a fortune estimated at $7.4 billion by Forbes before the dispute. Kadyrov’s intervention is highlighting the fast-deteriorating business environment in Russia since President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the subsequent western economic sanctions. (FT, 08.01.24)
• Russia is moving to regulate the use of cryptocurrencies, as companies wrestle with increasing difficulties in foreign payments under the threat of U.S. sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Lawmakers in the lower house of parliament, the State Duma, passed a cryptocurrency bill on July 30, as well as separate legislation regulating crypto mining. (Bloomberg, 07.30.24)
• A Moscow court on July 29 issued arrest warrants for two more members of the Vesna youth movement over their public condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.29.24)
• The Russia Prosecutor General's Office has recognized the activities of the charitable foundation for helping convicts and their families "Rus Sidyashchaia" and three other initiatives as "undesirable" in Russia. The Prosecutor General's Office also declared the Kulturus festival of Russian culture and human rights, the My Russian Rights project, and the "For Your and Our Freedom" foundation that unites them "undesirable." (Media Zone, 08.01.24)
• As Putin seeks to restore Russia’s status as a superpower, his revanchist policies are rolling back women’s rights, Russian feminists say, with idealized roles fitted to the imperial era that predated communism. Women are being told to forgo education and careers to prioritize child-rearing, even as the war in Ukraine drains men from the workforce, creating critical labor shortages’ (WP, 07.30.24)
• Half of those surveyed by the Levada Center (48%) earlier this summer say about their life situation that “everything is not so bad and you can live” (+11 percentage points compared to August 2018), 20% note that “everything is fine” — +12 percentage points compared to August 2018. While the share of those who say that “life is difficult, but you can endure it” (27%) and “it is no longer possible to endure our dire situation” (5%) is decreasing. (Levada, 07.30.24)
• The all-Russian poll by the Levada Center, which was conducted from July 25 to July 31, 2024, indicates that the majority of Russians (72%) believe that things in the country are going in the right direction. The majority of Russians approve of Putin's performance as president - 87%, a high figure that has remained since the end of last year. 11% of respondents disapprove of his performance.  (Levada, 08.02.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s Navy began planned drills involving all but one of its fleets and an overwhelming majority of its warships. “Units and formations of the Russian Navy have started scheduled exercises in the operational zones of the Northern, Pacific and Baltic Fleets, as well as in the area of responsibility of the Caspian Flotilla,” the Defense Ministry said. (MT/AFP, 07.30.24)
• A large fire broke out on July 30 at a production facility in the Ural Mountains city of Yekaterinburg. According to local media reports, the blaze erupted late July 30 afternoon at NPO Avtomatiki, a subsidiary of the Roscosmos space agency. It was not immediately clear what caused the fire. (MT/AFP, 07.30.24)
• The Russian State Duma revised some aspects of a recent bill criminalizing Russian soldiers' use of personal devices on the battlefield following outcry in the Russian ultranationalist community. The Russian State Duma Defense Committee recommended on July 30 that the Duma repeal its prior approval of the bill, and the State Duma adopted a new version of the bill on July 31 clarifying that Russian soldiers will not be subject to disciplinary arrest for using or wearing devices to perform combat operations. (ISW, 07.31.24)
• The Russian parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, on July 31 approved in all three readings a bill that obliges naturalized Russian citizens to go through military registration. (RFE/RL, 07.31.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• A Russian court on July 29 sentenced former inmate Vladimir Shcherbakov to nine years in prison for beating to death an 82-year-old woman and robbing her house after returning last year from the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.30.24)
• The head of the Russian military’s clothing and food supplier Voentorg was arrested on fraud charges, law enforcement officials said Aug. 1. Interior Ministry spokeswoman Irina Volk said the CEO had “entered into a criminal conspiracy” with several other individuals to sell toiletry kits to the military at inflated prices. She did not mention the company executive by name, but according to Voentorg’s website, a man named Vladimir Pavlov has served as CEO since 2012. (MT/AFP, 08.01.24)
• In Moscow, Dmitry Savelyev, a member of the Federation Council from the Tula region, has been detained. The senator is suspected of organizing the murder of his business partner, who embezzled money from the company they managed together through an assistant. It should be noted that the partner was in prison for this crime. According to the investigative bodies, Dmitry Savelyev organized the crime through intermediaries for a reward of $100,000.  (Kommersant, 08.02.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Israel conducted an airstrike killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairperson Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran [in order] to derail attempts to establish peace in the Middle East. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) also responded to Haniyeh's death, stating that it "strongly condemned" Haniyeh's assassination and emphasized that Haniyeh's assassination occurred during his visit to Tehran for Masoud Pezeshkian's presidential inauguration (ISW, 07.31.24)
• Three Russian warships arrived in Cuban waters on July 27, Moscow’s second such maritime voyage in as many months in a reflection of deepening ties between Russia and Cuba. The naval group, consisting of a training ship, patrol frigate and refueling tanker, are expected to remain docked in Cuba’s port of Havana until July 30. The arrival of the vessels comes mere weeks after another squadron of Russian warships, including a powerful nuclear-powered submarine, visited Havana as part of planned military exercises last month. (Politico, 07.28.24)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 29 congratulated Nicolas Maduro on his victory in Venezuela’s presidential race, as the election results were rejected by the opposition and several foreign countries. “Despite pollsters predicting Maduro’s loss, the country’s electoral council showed him as taking home 51.2% of the vote, while Gonzales was shown as receiving 44.2%. The Kremlin on July 30 said Venezuela's opposition must accept that it lost (MT/AFP, 07.29.24, MT/AFP, 07.30.24)
  • Troops bearing insignia associated with Russia's Wagner Group have been observed among Venezuelan security forces during protests following the July 28 disputed presidential election, raising concerns about foreign involvement in the country's internal affairs. (BNE, 08.02.24)
• More than two dozen mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner Group and Malian soldiers were killed last week while fighting rebels in northern Mali, according to a pro-Kremlin news source, suffering what’s likely the group’s biggest death toll since it deployed to the West African country in 2021. The group lost more than 25 fighters, according to the pro-Kremlin African Initiative information portal. In contrast, a Malian rebel group said it t killed 84 mercenaries from the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group and 47 Malian troops over three days of fighting. (Bloomberg, 07.29.24, Bloomberg, 08.02.24)
• The Kremlin on July 29 rejected U.S. media claims that Russia may be plotting attacks on critical infrastructure in France during the Olympic Games. NBC News reported Sunday that acts of sabotage against France’s high-speed train network ahead of the opening ceremony last week Friday showed a broad array of security threats to the Olympics, including a “Russian-backed sabotage campaign.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the report, without mentioning it by name, as “another hoax and unsubstantiated accusation.” (MT/AFP, 07.29.24)
  • Olympic organizers on July 29 confirmed that they canceled the accreditation of some reporters after Russia's state-run TASS news agency said several of its journalists could no longer cover the Paris Games. (MT/AFP, 07.29.24)
• Hungary’s recent decision to ease visa restrictions for Russian visitors is an open door to spies and EU leaders should take urgent countermeasures, the bloc’s biggest political party has said. In a letter, Manfred Weber, chair of the European People’s party, said the move would allow unvetted Russians to travel through much of the EU unhindered and raised “serious national security concerns”. Ylva Johansson, the EU’s home affairs commissioner, wrote a letter to Hungary on Aug. 1 saying she shared concerns expressed by several member states — including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — that Budapest is undermining the Schengen Area (FT, 07.31.24, Bloomberg, 08.02.24)
• Serbia and Russia have agreed to jointly mark the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Belgrade from Nazi occupation, President Aleksandar Vucic said on July 29 after talks with Russian Ambassador Aleksandr Bocan-Kharchenko. (RFE/RL, 07.29.24)
• Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto, who last year unsuccessfully pushed a peace proposal that would have left Russia occupying parts of Ukraine, pledged to deepen ties at talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow.” (Bloomberg, 07.31.24)
• Russian state news media reported on July 31 that the Zamoskvorechye district court in Moscow extended the pretrial detention of French researcher Laurent Vinatier, who Russian investigators have said pleaded guilty to illegally obtaining information about the Russian military. (RFE/RL, 07.31.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainians consider the customs, Ukraine's parliament, and the Cabinet of Ministers to be the most corrupt institutions, according to a survey by the National Democratic Institute and the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) released on Aug. 1. The results indicate that despite anti-graft reforms undertaken since the EuroMaidan Revolution in 2014, Ukrainians still believe corruption is prevalent in the highest state bodies. (The Kyiv Independent, 08.02.24)
• Among the nine political parties, Ukrainians have the most negative attitude towards "Servant of the People", "Batkivshchyna" and the banned Opposition Platform - For Life, the most positive attitude towards Serhiy Prytula's party, according to a poll conducted by the National Democratic Institute and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. According to the survey results, 48% of Ukrainians from among those surveyed have a negative attitude towards Zelensky’s "Servant of the People" party, 32% are neutral, and 13% are positive. 57% of Ukrainians assessed their attitude towards the All-Ukrainian Union "Batkivshchyna" as negative, Also, 71% of Ukrainians had a very negative attitude towards the banned Opposition Platform - For Life. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.02.24)
• Ukraine has made a payment of about $200 million to holders of its GDP warrants, securities that weren’t part of a recent $20 billion eurobond restructuring agreement with private creditors, the finance ministry said. The payment comes after the finance ministry said in a statement in July that it intended to pay a consent fee in early August linked to $2.6 billion of outstanding warrants, as well as a deferred payment on the notes from 2021. (Bloomberg, 08.01.24)
• The Charitable Foundation "Ohmatdet" chose "Stroy-tekhnologiya" as the winner of the tender for the repair of the children’s hospital building, which was damaged by missile fire in July. Of the 14 participants in the competition, this was the third most expensive offer in the amount of UAH 307 million. However, the results of the tender were then annulled and a new tender was scheduled. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.01.24, RBC.ua, 08.02.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• In October 2023, the president of Abkhazia, a Russian-backed separatist region of Georgia, announced that a new Russian navy base would be built to serve as a “permanent place of deployment” for parts of Russia’s Black Sea fleet at Ochamchire, a small harbor serving a coal terminal and Federal Security Service (FSB) Coast Guard division.  Satellite imagery analyzed by Bellingcat shows that construction activity has accelerated since early 2024, with multiple buildings and perimeter features under construction. (Bellingcat, 07.30.24)
• A Georgian citizen, Bondo Gagnidze, was killed in Ukraine's eastern region of Luhansk while fighting alongside Ukrainian armed forces. (RFE/RL, 07.30.24)
• Russian border guards withdrew from Armenia’s main international airport. (ISW, 07.31.24)
• Two Moldovan civil servants have been detained in Chisinau on charges of treason and conspiracy on behalf of a foreign state following raids on parliament, local prosecutors said in a statement. Authorities are not naming the suspects, who have been described as an employee of the secretariat of the Moldovan parliament and a member of the border police, but local media has reported that one was an agent of Russia’s GRU intelligence service working under diplomatic cover. Moldova on Aug. 1 declared an employee of the Russian embassy in Chisinau as persona non grata, in the second espionage case to emerge in the country in recent weeks (Bloomberg, 07.31.24, MT/AFP, 08.01.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• "The tragedy is that what started two and half years ago as Putin's war — really one person's war — in year three is much more Russia's war than just Putin's war," Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, said. "Too many people have died, too much animosity has been created between Russians and Ukrainians and Russia and the West." (WP, 07.31.24)

Footnotes

1. For one list of American citizens remaining in Russian custody, please visit this link to a USA Today news story. Full list of prisoners exchanged on Aug. 1 can be found in this Reuters news story.
2. For more on Ukrainian and Russian public opinion on a potential peace deal, see RM’s “Majority of Russians Favor Talks to End Ukraine War, But 1/3 Support Use of Nukes”.
3. For one list of American citizens remaining in Russian custody, please visit this link to a USA Today news story.
4. Ibid.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: AP Photo/Alex Brandon.