7 Highlights From This Week

1. IMF, CBRF upgrade Russia’s economic outlook for this year: IMF's latest World Economic Outlook upgraded Russia's GDP estimate for this year by a remarkable 2.5 percentage points, predicting it would decline by 6% this year rather than by 8.5% as previously estimated. "Russia's economy is estimated to have contracted during the second quarter by less than previously projected, with crude oil and non-energy exports holding up better than expected," the IMF report said. Russia’s Central Bank has also revised down its expectations of an economic contraction for this year: from 8-10% to only 4-6%. Moreover, the bank has announced an interest rate cut to below pre-invasion levels, from 9.5% to 8%.
2. Antony Blinken and Sergei Lavrov held their first conversation since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on July 29. Blinken told Lavrov "the world expects Russia to fulfill its commitments” per the U.N.-brokered agreement on exports of Ukrainian grain, and  urged Russia to accept a deal to exchange American detainees Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan for Viktor Bout, the imprisoned Russian arms dealer. Lavrov confirmed he had discussed the grain deal with Blinken and criticized the U.S. for supplying arms to Ukraine. As for the exchange of prisoners, the Russian diplomat suggested that the sides resort to “quiet diplomacy,” according to the Russian MFA’s statement on the meeting.
3. Ukrainian grain prepped for shipping in a life-saving deal: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited a Black Sea port on July 29 as crews prepared terminals to ship grain per a U.N.-mediated agreement. The grain has been trapped by Russia’s five-month-old war as millions of impoverished people continue to face hunger.
4. Zelensky: Ukraine can’t be a viable state without recapturing south by winter: In what could be interpreted as an attempt to convince Western allies to escalate military aid, Zelensky said this week that if Russia holds large parts of the south when winter arrives, such as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Ukraine will lose its ability to function as a viable state, according to WP. He said the next few weeks will determine the country's fate. (For more on how much Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and other regions contribute to Ukraine’s economic and demographic viability, check out our recent study.)
5. 75,000 Russian casualties in Ukraine, according to U.S. government’s new estimate: While the Biden administration has not officially disclosed this estimate, it has been recently shared with U.S. lawmakers. If true, it means Russia has lost roughly half of its initial invading force. Last week saw CIA director William Burns put Russian casualties at 60,000, with 15,000 killed and 45,000 wounded. Such estimates are impossible to verify, of course, though Russian journalists managed to identify 5,186 Russian KIAs by name.
6. Russia in solidarity with China on Taiwan: Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed solidarity after Chinese President Xi Jinping warned U.S. leader Joe Biden not to "play with fire" over the self-ruled island. If that wasn’t enough, Sergei Lavrov met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of an SCO summit to express support, while Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov promised that Russian-Chinese trade volume will reach $165-$170 billion in 2022—however, that’s still almost four times less than U.S.-China trade last year.
7. Iran has signed an agreement to supply spare parts for Russian civil aircraft, reaffirming that Western sanctions have significantly constrained Russia’s ability to procure such parts from EU and U.S. aircraft makers, which jointly accounted for a whooping 75% of planes operated by Russian airlines in 2021. Iran has reportedly mastered indigenous production of some parts for Western-made planes, but it is most likely to also to re-export Western parts to Russia, according to Radzhab Safarov, a Russian scholar of Iran. Putin has admitted earlier this month that the West’s ban on exports of high-tech goods to Russia has caused “a colossal volume of difficulties.”

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Rosatom is keen to discuss in detail a string of possible problems with Kazakhstan regarding equipment supplies for the construction of a nuclear power plant in the face of anti-Russian sanctions. (Interfax, 07.29.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran signed an agreement with Russia on the supply of parts and equipment for Russian aircraft, as well as on their repair and maintenance. Western sanctions have significantly constrained Russia’s ability to procure such parts from EU and U.S. aircraft makers, which jointly accounted for a whooping 75% of planes operated by Russian airlines in 2021. The parties also signed a memorandum of understanding, according to which the number of passenger flights between Russia and Iran will be increased to 35 per week. (Media Zone, 07.27.22, RBC, 02.26.22)
  • Iran has reportedly mastered indigenous production of some parts for Western-made planes, but it is most likely to also to re-export Western parts to Russia, according to Radzhab Safarov, a Russian scholar of Iran. Putin has admitted earlier this month that the West’s ban on exports of high-tech goods to Russia has caused “a colossal volume of difficulties.” (BBC, 07.28.22, Kremlin.ru, 07.18.22)
• Iran says it plans to build a new research reactor at its nuclear site in Isfahan Province, with construction set to start in the next several weeks. (RFE/RL, 07.29.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russian missiles struck Ukraine's key Black Sea port of Odesa July 23, officials said, in an attack Kyiv described as a "spit in the face" of a deal signed by the warring neighbors a day earlier to resume grain exports blocked by the conflict. (AFP, 07.23.22)
  • Britain said on July 26 that there was "no indication" that a Ukrainian warship and a stock of anti-ship missiles were located in Odesa over the weekend, contradicting the Kremlin's claim that it targeted a Ukrainian ship and military installations with a missile strike on July 23. (RFE/RL, 07.26.22)
  • Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov says he hopes the first shipments of grain under a deal mediated by the United Nations and Turkey will leave the country's Chornomorsk port this week. (RFE/RL, 07.25.22)
  • Turkish officials have opened a joint coordination center for Ukrainian grain exports and expect shipments to begin in the coming days (RFE/RL, 07.27.22)
  • Insurers at Lloyd’s of London on July 29 agreed a new insurance facility that will allow grain and other foods to be shipped out of Ukraine. (FT, 07.29.22)
• According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, since Feb. 24, the Russian army has inflicted 17.3 thousand strikes on civilian targets and only about 300 on military ones.  (Istories, 07.25.22)
• Ukraine has received $12.7 billion from international partners since the start of the war with Russia in late February, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. (BNE, 07.25.22)
• At least 18 medical personnel have been killed and nearly 900 medical facilities damaged or destroyed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the country’s Health Ministry said on July 24. (RFE/RL, 07.24.22)
• The war’s humanitarian cost is rising, with 9 million people having fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion started and continuing loss of life and destruction of physical capital, according to IMF. (IMF, 07.26.22)
• Ukrainian citizens who have fled abroad have been using hryvnia bank cards to withdraw $1.5 billion a month. (FT, 07.26.22)
• Ukraine has rejected Russian accusations it carried out an attack on a prison in the eastern Donetsk region that killed at least 40 Ukrainian prisoners of war captured during the fighting for Mariupol, and instead blamed Russia for the attack. (RFE/RL, 07.29.22)
• Ukraine says a cargo ship carrying stolen Ukrainian barley and flour has docked in Lebanon, and its ambassador warned the country against purchasing stolen goods. (RFE/RL, 07.29.22)
• Russian strikes on the central Ukrainian region of Kirovograd on July 28 killed five people and wounded 26 in the city of Kropyvnytskiy. Russian missile strikes also hit regions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Mykolayiv and Kharkiv. A rocket hit a crowded bus stop in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv on July 29, killing at least five people and wounding more than a dozen others. (NYT, 07.29.22. RFE/RL, 07.29.22)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited a Black Sea port on July 29 as crews prepared terminals to ship grain per a U.N.-mediated agreement. The grain has been trapped by Russia’s five-month-old war as millions of impoverished people continue to face hunger. (Time, 07.29.22)

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Ukrainian authorities are using a panoply of methods to identify Russian officials suspected of having committed crimes in Ukraine. So far, more than 7,500 suspects have been identified, according to the national police. Only 15 of those suspects are in custody. (WSJ, 05.21.22)
• The United States has signed off on another $270 million in military aid to Ukraine, including four more high-mobility artillery rocket systems. (RFE/RL, 07.22.22)
• The Russians used to fire 12,000 artillery shells daily against 1,000 to 2,000 by Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Now, Zelensky said, Ukraine can fire some 6,000 shells a day while Russia is beginning to feel a shortage of ammunition and troops. (WSJ, 07.23.22)
• Serhiy Khlan, an aide to the head of Kherson region, said July 24 that the region of Kherson, which fell to Russian troops early in their February invasion, would be recaptured by Kyiv's forces by September. (MT/AFP, 07.25.22)
• The war has forced Kyiv to up its monthly military spending from $250 million February to $3.3 billion in May. (FT, 07.26.22)
• Zelensky replaced a top military commander in eastern Ukraine after major territorial losses to Russia. Zelensky issued decrees on July 25 dismissing Maj. Gen. Hryhoriy Halahan and appointing Viktor Horenko to replace him. (RFE/RL, 07.26.22)
• Russian authorities suspended traffic over the strategically important Antonivsky bridge in the Kherson region on July 27 after Ukraine used U.S.-supplied high-precision rockets to attack a crucial supply route. (FT, 07.27.22)
• Russian soldiers, who thought they could opt to leave Russian forces after a three-month contract fighting in the Ukraine war, have instead reportedly been sent to a makeshift detention center in Bryanka, in the Luhansk region which Moscow says it now controls. (Newsweek, 07.27.22)
• Russian authorities are paying separate bonuses to Russian soldiers for the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment and the killing of soldiers: 300,000 rubles for a downed plane, 200,000 for a helicopter, 50,000 for a drone, 300,000 for a tank and 50,000 for infantry fighting vehicles and MLRS. (Media Zone, 07.27.22)
• Canada has confirmed that one of its citizens died recently in Ukraine. The confirmation came after a media report said the Canadian died while fighting alongside two U.S. citizens who also died while fighting in the Donbas region. (RFE/RL, 07.25.22)
• The Biden administration is quietly circulating an estimate of Russian casualties in Ukraine that far exceeds earlier U.S. estimates, telling lawmakers that more than 75,000 members of Russia’s forces had been killed or injured. (NYT, 07.27.22)
  • As of July 29, 5,185 Russian military deaths in Ukraine have been confirmed by open sources. More often than others, soldiers from national republics are dying. Dagestan and Buryatia are among the leaders. (Media Zone, 07.29.22)
  • Retired U.S. Army Gen. Mark Hertling assessed that Russia is "damning" its army to "failure" with its ill-advised effort to quickly replenish its forces amid massive losses in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. (Newsweek, 07.29.22)
• Britain's Defense Ministry said in its daily intelligence bulletin on July 28 that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kherson was gathering momentum and has "highly likely established a bridgehead south of the Ingulets River, which forms the northern boundary of Russian-occupied Kherson." (RFE/RL, 07.28.22)
• Moscow-backed separatists claimed on July 27 to have seized control of Ukraine's second-largest coal-fired power plant near the city of Svitlodarsk with the help of Russian mercenaries from the notorious Kremlin-linked Wagner Group. (RFE/RL, 07.28.22)
• At least 14 Russian regions—including the republic of Tatarstan, the Far Eastern Primorsky region and the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg—have followed Bashkortostan’s example and announced the formation of local units to be dispatched to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.29.22)
• A Reuters investigation has found that Russia’s success at Chornobyl was no accident, but part of a long-standing Kremlin operation to infiltrate the Ukrainian state with secret agents. Five people with knowledge of the Kremlin’s preparations said war planners around President Vladimir Putin believed that, aided by these agents, Russia would require only a small military force and a few days to force Zelensky’s administration to quit, flee or capitulate. (Reuters, 07.28.22)
• Zelensky says that if Russia holds large parts of the south when winter arrives, such as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Ukraine will lose its ability to function as a viable state. He says the next few weeks will determine the country's fate. (WP, 07.28.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The European Union blocked a proposal to sanction Russian metals company VSMPO-Avisma PJSC at the last minute, EU diplomats said, after France and other member states objected to the move over fears of a potential retaliatory ban by Russia on titanium exports to the bloc. The company is a critical supplier of titanium to Airbus. (WSJ, 07.21.22)
• Russian state-backed shipping company Sovcomflot, sanctioned by the U.S. and EU in February, continues to deliver crude oil to European ports, analysis of company records and live ship tracking shows. Experts say the company disguised its ownership of the vessels by basing subsidiaries in Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates and sailing under Liberian flags. (OCCRP, 07.22.22)
• French prosecutors have opened an investigation into the assets owned by Russian oligarchs, a legal source said on July 25. The probe is expected to look into possible money laundering and corruption. (MT/AFP, 07.25.22)
• Britain and the EU have extended sanctions on Russia in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The U.K. Foreign Office said on its website on July 26 that the sanctions, which included travel bans and asset freezes, were imposed on 42 new people and entities, including several governors of Russian regions and the Kremlin-installed prime minister of the separatist-controlled Donetsk region of Ukraine, Vitaly Khotsenko. (RFE/RL, 07.26.22)
• Russia says it will quit the International Space Station after 2024 to focus on building its own project in outer space. (RFE/RL, 07.26.22)
• Ukraine's Naftogaz has become the first Ukrainian government entity to default since the start of the Russian invasion, after the state energy firm said it would not make payments on international bonds before the July 26 expiry of a grace period. (Reuters, 07.26.22) 
• Fitch Ratings downgraded Ukraine’s credit rating to C from CCC on July 25, indicating that the country is near default. (WSJ, 07.26.22)
• The Philippines has scrapped a deal to buy 16 Russian military-transport helicopters over fears of U.S. sanctions. (MT/AFP, 07.27.22)
• American elevator manufacturer Otis Worldwide Corporation has announced the sale of its business in Russia to Russian holding S8 Capital of Armen Sargsyan. (Meduza, 07.27.22)
• A Russian court has fined the social media applications WhatsApp and Snapchat for their alleged failure to store local user data within Russian territory. (RFE/RL, 07.28.22)
• During the first half of the year, Renault posted a net loss of €1.7 billion, because of a €2.2 billion writedown of its Russian operations. With its Russian exit stripped out, Renault made a profit of €657 million, compared with €458 million for the same period last year. (FT, 07.29.22)
• Mastercard's loss before tax due to the suspension of activities in Russia in the second quarter amounted to $26 million, according to the company's financial statements. (Interfax, 07.28.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Any cease-fire that allows Russia to keep Ukrainian territories seized since the invasion in February would only encourage an even wider conflict, giving Moscow a badly needed opportunity to replenish and rearm for the next round, Zelensky warned. (WSJ, 07.23.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• “We are sitting in a car that has a puncture in all four tires: it is absolutely clear that the war cannot be won in this way,” Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban said. He said Ukraine will never win the war this way “quite simply because the Russian army has asymmetrical dominance.” (Reuters, 07.23.22)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced on July 24 that the Kremlin supported the overthrow of Zelensky. “We will definitely help the Ukrainian people to free themselves from the [Zelensky] regime,” Lavrov said during a visit to Cairo. (NI, 07.25.22)
• French President Emmanuel Macron said Russia's invasion of Ukraine is “a territorial war, the likes of which we thought had disappeared from European soil.” (RFE/RL, 07.28.22)
• U.S. Senate appropriators today released their $792.1 billion fiscal year 2023 defense spending bill, proposing a nearly $12 billion boost in procurement in a plan that represents a nearly 4% increase over the president's budget request. (InsideDefense, 07.28.22)
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on July 29 held their first conversation since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24. During the conversation:
  • Blinken said he told Lavrov that "the world expects Russia to fulfill its commitments under the deal it reached with Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations on grain shipments from Ukraine." “We had a frank and direct conversation," Blinken added. (Axios, 07.29.22)
  • Blinken urged Russia to accept a deal to win the release of American detainees Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan. The Biden administration has offered to hand over Viktor Bout, the imprisoned Russian arms dealer, in exchange for the two Americans. (AP, 07.29.22, NYT, 07.29.22)
  • Lavrov confirmed he had discussed the grain deal with Blinken and criticized the U.S. for supplying arms to Ukraine. As for the exchange of prisoners, the Russian diplomat suggested that the sides resort to “quiet diplomacy,” according to the Russian MFA’s statement on the meeting. (Kommersant, 07.29.22, RF MFA, 07.29.22)
    • Russian officials gave no public hint whether Blinken had made any headway, only issuing a chiding statement afterward urging the U.S. to pursue the Americans’ freedom through “quiet diplomacy, without releases of speculative information.” (AP, 07.29.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• A $50 billion Russian-Chinese joint venture to build a passenger jet is at risk as cracks appear in the partnership. The future of the CR-929 project appears increasingly uncertain as China looks to freeze Russia out of a share of the profits from its domestic market. (SCMP, 07.23.22)
• The Kremlin expressed "solidarity" on July 29 with China's stance on Taiwan after Chinese President Xi Jinping warned U.S. leader Joe Biden not to "play with fire" over the self-ruled island. "Certainly we are in solidarity," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. (MT/AFP, 07.29.22)
• Moscow assumes that no actions capable of aggravating the situation around Taiwan will be taken, Lavrov told reporters on July 29. (TASS, 07.29.22)
• Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi met on the sidelines of a meeting of the SCO Foreign Ministers’ Council in Tashkent to discuss the organization’s prospects and the Ukraine situation. (TASS, 07.28.22)
• Trade turnover between Russia and China could reach $165-$170 billion in 2022, and the value of mutual trade in the first months of the year has already exceeded the target, the press service of Russia's Economic Development Ministry has reported, citing Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov. (Interfax, 07.28.22)
• The value of China’s monthly imports from Russia has more than doubled from Jan. 2018 to May 2022. (RM, 07.29.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Britain's national security adviser Stephen Lovegrove has warned that a breakdown in dialogue among rival powers is raising the risk of nuclear war, with fewer safeguards now than during the Cold War. (WP, 07.28.22)

Counterterrorism:

• The size of the Islamic State in Afghanistan has reached about 6,000 militants, increasing threefold since the Taliban came to power, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said. (TASS, 07.28.22)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• A cessation of Russian gas exports could slash another 1.3 percentage points from Europe’s 2023 growth forecast, resulting in “near-zero regional growth,” according to IMF. (FT, 07.26.22)
• The Kremlin says a gas turbine for Russia's Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline has not yet arrived after maintenance in Canada, but officials hope it will be installed "sooner rather than later" to allow gas flows to Europe to rise. (RFE/RL, 07.26.22)
• Gazprom said it was cutting daily deliveries of gas to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline to 33 million cubic meters a day—about 20% of the pipeline's capacity—from July 27. (MT/AFP, 07.26.22)
• EU energy ministers on July 26 approved a proposal for all EU countries to voluntarily cut their gas usage by 15% from next month until the end of March. (RFE/RL, 07.26.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• On July 15, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian received CIA Director William Burns in Yerevan. Three days later, Sergey Naryshkin, the head of Russia's foreign intelligence agency, arrived in Yerevan. These visits, which are far from typical, stoked speculation about whether a backchannel had been created to cover the Iran deal or, in larger sense, issues which require coordination between Russia and the U.S. (Tatyana Stanovaya, Bulletin No. 14, R.Politik, 07.26.22)
• American basketball star Brittney Griner testified on July 27 at her trial in Russia and said the authorities who arrested her at a Moscow airport in February failed to provide an explanation of her rights and did not fully translate all that was said during her arrest. (RFE/RL, 07.27.22)
• In its statement on July 28, the U.S. State Department said it was specifically looking for information related to Kremlin-connected businessman Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Russian entities and associates linked to him. The United States is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information on Russian interference in U.S. elections. (RFE/RL, 07.29.22)
• An American teacher jailed on drug charges in Russia is being kept from communicating with his family freely, his sister told CNN on July 27. Marc Fogel was last month found guilty of drug acquisition, manufacture, smuggling and possession and sentenced to 14 years in a maximum-security prison. (MT, 07.28.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy appears to be weathering the storm better than expected as it benefits from high energy prices, the IMF said July 26. IMF's latest World Economic Outlook upgraded Russia's GDP estimate for this year by a remarkable 2.5 percentage points, predicting it would decline by 6% this year rather than by 8.5% as previously estimated. While major economies including the United States and China are slowing, "Russia's economy is estimated to have contracted during the second quarter by less than previously projected, with crude oil and non-energy exports holding up better than expected," the report said. The report also noted “stronger-than-expected Russian export growth in 2022.” (MT/AFP, 07.26.22, RM, 07.26.22)
• On July 22, FT heralded Russian central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina’s surprising announcement of an interest rate cut to below pre-invasion levels. In announcing the cut from 9.5% to 8%, the central bank explained that inflation had fallen from 17.1% in May to 15.9% in June. It also indicated that it expected inflation to drop further by the end of the year, leaving the door open for future interest rate cuts. As reported in WSJ, Russia’s economic outlook has improved, leading Russian officials to revise expectations of this year’s GDP decline from 8-10% to only 4-6%. Financial firm Renaissance Capital said the 150 basis point cut was “a big surprise to both us and the market.” (RM, 07.29.22)
• The real disposable cash income of Russians in the second quarter of 2022 fell by 0.8% compared to the same period in 2021, follows from the report "The socio-economic situation of Russia in the first half of 2022," published by Rosstat. (Bell.io, 07.27.22)
• Russia’s population shrank by a record average of 86,000 people a month between January and May, state statistics agency Rosstat has said. The decline surpasses the previous record contraction of 57,000 people a month in 2002, when Russia’s population shrank to 145.3 million from nearly 146 million the previous year. Russia’s population has fallen to 145.1 million after a decline of 430,000 people, according to Rosstat’s latest demographic report. (MT, 07.29.22)
• For three months, the assessment of the current state of affairs in Russia has remained at the same level: in May-July, 68% of respondents said they believe that things in the country are going in the right direction, while 22% believe that the country is moving along the wrong path, the Levada Center reported July 29, citing its own polls. While 83% of respondents approve of Putin's actions as president, 15% do not approve, compared to 16% in June. Meanwhile, 71% approve of the government’s actions (70% in June) and 27% disapprove (26% in May). (RM, 07.29.22)
• Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Yuri Isaev will leave his post on Aug. 1. Meduza’s sources close to the Central Bank and the Russian government said that Isaev was appointed to the leadership of the Central Bank at the request of the FSB and “just in time for these new events,” in January 2022. (Meduza, 07.27.22)
• Since June, the Russian financial monitoring agency, together with the FSB, has investigated medical clinics across the country for prescribing Western drugs rather than Russian ones. (FA, 07.27.22)
• Helga Pirogova, a Siberian regional opposition deputy, has fled to Georgia shortly after Russian authorities launched a criminal investigation against her on allegations of spreading “fake” information about the Russian army. (MT/AFP, 07.25.22)
• Jailed Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza faces a second criminal case, Novaya Gazeta Europe reported July 27. Authorities now accuse him of cooperating with an “undesirable” foreign non-governmental organization. (MT/AFP, 07.27.22)
• Russia's media regulator Roskomnadzor has filed a lawsuit in a Moscow court to revoke the registration of the independent Novaya Gazeta newspaper, less than a year after its editor in chief, Dmitry Muratov, won the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize. (RFE/RL, 07.28.22)
• Russian opposition politician Leonid Gozman said that a criminal case had been opened against his wife under the article on failure to notify authorities of her second citizenship. Previously, the same case was brought against him. (Meduza, 07.29.22)
• An OCCRP investigation has revealed that Eric Whyte, a Canadian citizen, appears in documents from the Pandora Papers as the beneficial owner of companies set up in the British Virgin Islands that owned luxury properties in Russia and Europe. Some of these firms appear to have been used to hide VTB chief Andrei Kostin’s ownership of an international portfolio of high-end real estate. VTB, a Russian bank sanctioned by the EU for its ties to the Kremlin, secretly owned a luxury Alpine hotel until 2015. Its current owners appear to be proxies for Kostin. (OCCRP, July 2022)

Defense and aerospace:

• From Aug. 30 to Sept. 5, the strategic command and staff exercise Vostok-2022 will be held in the Eastern Military District, the Russian Defense Ministry announced. The exercise will be led by the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and "military contingents of other states" will take part in the maneuvers. (Meduza, 07.27.22)
• Russia and the United Arab Emirates are said to have expressed interest in working with Turkey on the development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), reports said July 26. Putin reportedly told President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that his country was interested in cooperating with Baykar, the developer of the most famous Turkish combat drone, Bayraktar TB2. (Daily Sabah, 07.27.22)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The whistleblower behind the "Panama Papers," which revealed major tax evasion and fraud worldwide, said he feared Russian retribution, in an interview published July 23 by Germany's Der Spiegel. (AFP, 07.23.22)
• A former top executive of disgraced payments company Wirecard who is believed to be under the protection of Russia’s security services near Moscow has at least two fake Russian passports. Austrian national Jan Marsalek is on Europol’s most-wanted list for alleged fraud. (MT/AFP, 07.26.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The greeting that Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov received from Congo’s longtime leader Denis Sassou Nguesso on July 25, and the amicable meeting with Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi a day earlier, showed that Moscow’s top diplomat remains welcome among the continent’s leaders. (FT, 07.26.22)
  • Lavrov on July 27 was in Ethiopia, where he urged a gathering of African diplomats not to back a U.S.-led world order. He told the gathering in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, that the West threw its principles "down the drain" when it imposed sanctions on Moscow over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.28.22)
  • While few African leaders have publicly supported Russia, no African countries have joined American and European sanctions against Moscow. (NYT, 07.24.22)
• A company associated with Prigozhin’s structures received a logging permit in the Central African Republic and now exploits 186,000 hectares of forest inhabited by large populations of gorillas, leopards and elephants in the southwest of the country. The investigation was carried out jointly with the German magazine Spiegel, the Belgian Le Soir, the French online publication Mediapart and other media. (Istories, 07.26.22)
• The Bellingcat investigative project and The Insider are included in the list of "undesirable organizations" maintained by the Russian Ministry of Justice. (Meduza, 07.26.22)
• A Russian court has set Aug. 19 for a hearing requested by the Justice Ministry, which wants to shut down the offices of the Jewish Agency for Israel, a group that helps maintain Jewish cultural identity in the country, as well as the immigration of Jews to Israel. The Basmanny district court in the Russian capital on July 28 set the date for the proceedings, which Israel has warned could have a serious impact on bilateral ties. (RFE/RL, 07.29.22)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine has named a new specialized anti-corruption prosecutor after an almost two-year hiatus, a move Western countries have been pressuring it to make to stem graft many see as endemic to the country. Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office, said in a post on his Telegram channel on July 28 that 35-year-old Oleksandr Klymenko will assume the post. (RFE/RL, 07.28.22)
• Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin pitched “a master plan” for restoring Mariupol to Putin, who welcomed it, asking Khusnullin to also look into restoration projects in other Russia-controlled parts of Ukraine. (RM, 07.29.22)
• On the territory of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, occupied by Russian troops, temporary departments of Russia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs have been created. (Meduza, 07.29.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Shareholders of the Canadian company Centerra Gold have approved a resolution with the Kyrgyz government and the firm Kyrgyzaltyn that paves the way for the completion of an agreement resolving a dispute that will put the Kumtor gold mine back in Kyrgyz hands. (RFE/RL, 07.26.22)
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will go to Kyrgyzstan on an official visit on July 30-31, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev said. "Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and I met in Nur-Sultan earlier in June, when I invited him to pay an official visit to Kyrgyzstan. Tashkent will host the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers on July 28-29, and after that, he will fly to Bishkek before heading to Dushanbe," Kulubaev said. The agenda for the visit is ready, he said. (Interfax, 07.28.22)
• Blinken has offered U.S. assistance in building ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Blinken held separate calls on July 25 with the leaders of the two countries to encourage efforts to achieve a permanent settlement between the adversaries almost two years after a Russian-brokered truce ended a six-week war over Nagorno-Karabakh. (RFE/RL, 07.26.22)
• Syria's semiautonomous Kurdish administration has repatriated 146 Tajik women and children who were held in Syria because a relative fought in the ranks of the Islamic State. (RFE/RL, 07.26.22)
• A Swiss court has ruled to grant the eldest daughter of Uzbekistan’s late president potential access to around 293 million Swiss francs ($303 million) worth of frozen funds, her lawyers have said. Mangeat, a law firm based in Geneva, said on July 22 that the Swiss Federal Criminal Court arrived at its decision after finding that the country’s attorney general had failed to prove that the funds had been acquired through acts of corruption by foreign public officials. Gulnara Karimova, who is believed to be serving a prison sentence at a female colony outside Tashkent, has been the target of a legal campaign by Swiss prosecutors since 2012. (BNE, 07.26.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• “Prison colonies may fill IKEA’s niche quite well. If one were to compare furniture—we have better quality and lower prices,” said the head of the subdepartment for adaptation through labor at the branch of Russia’s Federal Corrections Service in the Sverdlovsk region. (Oblgazeta/The Insider, 07.26.22)
• “To understand [Putin], you need to understand the history of Russia,” Ukrainian billionaire Dmitry Firtash said. “What is Russia? Russia is 1,000 years of war. Somebody has invaded them or they have invaded somebody.” (FT, 07.29.22)