This Week’s Highlights

• U.S. President Donald Trump said he spoke with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The two leaders discussed New START and combating the coronavirus, according to both countries’ readouts, RFE/RL reports. Trump "reiterated his hope of avoiding an expensive three-way arms race between China, Russia and the United States," adding that he "looked forward to progress on upcoming arms control negotiations in Vienna," the White House statement said. Trump and Putin also discussed Iran's nuclear program, the Kremlin statement said. They "also noted the importance of the Russian initiative to hold a summit of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council," the Kremlin press service said, according to Interfax.
• The draft of National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2021 passed by the U.S. House of Representatives requires the first comprehensive assessment of Russian threats to the safety of U.S. troops, funds the European Deterrence Initiative, prevents the use of Defense Department funds to draw down U.S. forces in Germany and Europe unless the Defense Department certifies that the reduction wouldn't harm U.S. and allied security. The House version of NDAA-21 would impose new sanctions on companies helping Russia complete Nord Stream 2 and would provide $250 million in security assistance for Ukraine.  In addition, no funding would be available for live nuclear weapons testing under an amendment the House adopted to its version of the bill. The Senate on July 23 passed its own version of the NDAA, which requires the Defense Department to conduct a study on Chinese and Russian defense budgets.
• “The recent steps that we have taken in relation to Russia are simply a part of our … push back against a long-standing pattern of behavior that is virtually impossible for us to make progress in any way, shape or form with the Russians,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun told Senate Foreign Relations hearings on U.S.-China relations. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was asked whether it is possible to "coax them [Russia] into the battle to be relentlessly candid about the Chinese Communist Party," according to TASS. "I do think there’s that opportunity," Pompeo said in response. "That opportunity is born of the natural relationship between Russia and China. And we can do something as well, there are places where we need to work with Russia." The U.S. and Western nations are seeking to set Russia and China against each other in the public sphere, but their attempts are doomed to failure, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, according to TASS.
• U.K. ministers “actively avoided” any investigation into the threat of Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum, Financial Times reports, despite Britain being one of the Kremlin’s “top Western targets,” members of the Intelligence and Security Committee said. The committee’s long-awaited report on Russia concludes that while there were many publicly available reports of Russian attempts to influence the Scottish independence referendum and the EU referendum, the U.K. government failed to order a proper inquiry into the issue while Britain’s security services appeared reluctant to take the initiative themselves. Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, called the report “fake-shaped Russophobia.”
• In May 2018, Putin set the ambitious goal of getting the Russian economy in the top five globally by 2024. Two years of stagnation later, and he’s quietly dropping the target, according to Bloomberg. A raft of other objectives that were laid out in a $400 billion investment and development program have been pushed back to 2030 from an earlier target of 2024, according to a Kremlin decree published July 21. Targets include reducing poverty by half and reversing a drop in incomes that has left Russians poorer than before Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for a top arms control post in the U.S. State Department, Marshall Billingslea, has said Russia should stop developing what he believes is a dangerous nuclear-powered cruise missile. The Burevestnik, which NATO designates as SSC-X-9 Skyfall, is believed to have exploded during secret rocket engine tests at sea in northern Russia last August, killing five scientists. Russian media have described the Burevestnik as a “small flying Chernobyl.” (The Moscow Times, 07.22.20)
• Rosenergoatom, the operator subsidiary of Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom, is establishing a new experimental and demonstration engineering center for the decommissioning of RBMK reactors. The new center will be based at the Leningrad plant site in the Leningrad region of Russia, with a branch at the Beloyarsk plant in the Sverdlovsk region. (World Nuclear News, 07.23.20)
• The manufacture of the first full reload batch of uranium-plutonium mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel for unit four of the Beloyarsk nuclear power plant in Russia has been completed by the Mining and Chemical Combine in Zheleznogorsk, in the Krasnoyarsk region. The 169 fuel assemblies have been accepted by operator Rosenergoatom. (World Nuclear News, 07.23.20)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia sees no reason to impose an indefinite weapons embargo on Iran, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on July 21 after talks with his visiting Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif. (TASS, 07.21.20)
• A member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Iran’s parliament says a blast at the Natanz nuclear complex was caused by a “security breach.” Speaking on July 22, lawmaker Javad Karimi Qodusi ruled out “a strike on the complex by an external object” as the cause of the July 3 blast, appearing to deny that the site had been targeted in an air strike. (RFE/RL, 07.24.20)
• Iran’s official IRNA news agency has reported an explosion at a power plant in Iran's central Isfahan Province, but says there were no casualties. The managing director of the Isfahan power company told IRNA on July 19 the blast was caused by a worn-out transformer at the plant. (RFE/RL, 07.19.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• The draft of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2021 passed by the U.S. House of Representatives provides $740.5 billion for national defense discretionary programs. It requires the first comprehensive assessment of Russian threats to the safety of U.S. troops. The House version of the FY2021 NDAA also continues to fund the European Deterrence Initiative and establishes the Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative to fund emergent technologies, support U.S. allies and deter China. It also prevents the use of Defense Department funds to draw down U.S. forces in Germany and Europe unless the defense secretary and Joint Chiefs of Staff certify, within 180 days, that the reduction wouldn't harm U.S. and allied security. The Senate on July 23 passed its own version of the NDAA. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Jim Inhofe introduced language in the Senate NDAA that requires the Defense Department to conduct a study on Chinese and Russian defense budgets “to better understand the defense spending of our adversaries.” Differences between the House and Senate versions will be negotiated in a conference some time this fall. (The Livingston Post, 07.22.20, Texas Insider, 07.22.20, Space News, 07.23.20, Wall Street Journal, 07.22.20, The Washington Post, 07.22.20)
• The Russian Defense Ministry said that a small space vehicle on July 15 inspected one of its satellites up close “using special equipment.” However, the U.S. said on July 23 that the craft actually had a different mission. “The Russian satellite system used to conduct this on-orbit weapons test is the same satellite system that we raised concerns about earlier this year, when Russia maneuvered near a U.S. government satellite,” said Gen. John W. Raymond, commander of Space Command and the head of the U.S. Space Force. However, Russia dismissed U.S. and British claims that it tested an anti-satellite weapon in space and declared July 24 that the accusations served to justify Washington’s own plans to deploy weapons in orbit. (RFE/RL, 07.24.20, AP, 07.24.20)
  • U.S. officials will use the consultations with Russian diplomats in Vienna next week to propose developing norms of behavior in space, U.S. Assistant Secretary for International Security and Nonproliferation Christopher Ford was quoted by TASS as saying July 24. The two sides will discuss space issues on July 27 before holding a round of consultations on arms control on July 28-30, according to TASS. (Russia Matters, 07.24.20)
• An Su-27 of Russia’s Southern Military District shadowed a U.S. P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance plane over the Black Sea, the National Defense Control Center reported July 17. (TASS, 07.21.20)
• “We know that China and Russia are developing and exporting AI-enabled surveillance technologies and autonomous combat systems without providing any evidence of adequate technical or ethical safeguards and policies,” Nand Mulchandani, acting director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center said. (The National Interest, 07.24.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• Moscow never stopped its dialogue with NATO, and therefore the issue of the return of the permanent representative to the alliance is of secondary importance, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said. However, Grushko continued, today all practical cooperation between Russia and NATO is suspended. (TASS, 07.22.20)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Trump said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin about an arms agreement and fighting the coronavirus in their first call since explosive allegations emerged last month that Moscow had put bounties on U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. The two leaders discussed the expiring New START nuclear agreement and combating the coronavirus pandemic, according to both readouts. Trump "reiterated his hope of avoiding an expensive three-way arms race between China, Russia and the United States," adding that he "looked forward to progress on upcoming arms control negotiations in Vienna," the White House statement said. Trump and Putin also discussed Iran's nuclear program, the Kremlin statement said. The pair "also noted the importance of the Russian initiative to hold a summit of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council on a wide range of international security issues," the Kremlin press service said. (RFE/RL, 07.23.20, Interfax, 07.23.20)
• No funding would be available for live nuclear weapons testing under an amendment the U.S. House of Representatives adopted to its version of the annual defense policy bill. The amendment marks the second rebuke of the Trump administration amid reports it’s mulling a resumption of nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992. (Defense News, 07.21.20)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's party and its allies have won an expected majority of seats in the war-torn country's parliamentary election, denounced as "theatrical" by the exiled opposition. The so-called "National Unity" list won 177 seats in the 250-member parliament. "Simply put, these are illegitimate elections. The regime chose the candidates, even the independent ones, and they elected them," Yahya al-Aridi, a member of the opposition committee at U.N. peace talks in Geneva, was quoted as saying. (Al Jazeera, 07.22.20)
• Putin could have never said that Moscow doesn’t need Iran in Syria because he is not in the habit of discussing such matters behind his partners’ back, Lavrov said, commenting on allegations by former U.S. national security adviser John Botlon. (TASS, 07.21.20)
• Russian and Turkish forces carried out a joint patrol mission along a 55-kilometer route in Syria's Al-Hasakah province in accordance with a memorandum signed by the presidents of Russia and Turkey late last year. (Interfax, 07.20.20)

Cyber security:

• In 2019, a group of Americans was observing the cellphone signals coming from military sites across Eastern Europe. At one of the locations, the Nyonoksa Missile Test Site in northern Russia, the group identified 48 mobile devices present on Aug. 9, one day after a mysterious radiation spike there generated international headlines and widespread speculation that a Russian missile test had gone wrong. The effort was a demonstration to the military of the power of commercial cellphone data to provide valuable intelligence. (Wall Street Journal, 07.18.20)
• The U.S. Secret Service has announced a $2 million reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of two Ukrainian men accused of hacking into the Securities and Exchange Commission’s data system. Artem Radchenko and Oleksandr Ieremenko acquired inside information on publicly traded companies by stealing test versions of quarterly and annual reports filed with the SEC but not yet available to investors, the Secret Service said in a statement on July 22.(RFE/RL, 07.22.20)
• EU ambassadors have given the green light to sanctions on Russia's GRU military intelligence unit, as well as on Chinese and North Korean entities over three separate cyberattacks in recent years. The ambassadors decided to freeze assets of the GRU, China's Tianjin Huaying Haitai Science & Technology Development Co. and North Korea's Chosun Expo. They also will freeze potential funds held by all three in the bloc and impose visa bans on six unnamed citizens from China and Russia who the bloc believe are behind the WannaCry, NotPetya and Cloud Hopper cyberattacks. The sanctions will be formally adopted before the end of July. (RFE/RL, 07.22.20)
• Russia's ambassador to London, Andrei Kelin, has denied accusations by Britain and its allies of helping hackers target labs conducting coronavirus vaccine research. (AFP, 07.19.20)

Elections interference:

• In a letter, top Democrats in the U.S. Congress have demanded an urgent intelligence briefing over what they say is a concerted foreign campaign to spread disinformation to interfere in the Nov. 3 election. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and two other Democrats made the demand in a letter to the FBI released on July 20. The letter cited serious and specific threats to the upcoming presidential and congressional elections and said due to the nature of the threats, the FBI should conduct a classified briefing to all members of Congress by the end of July. (RFE/RL, 07.21.20)
• U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden says he is now getting regular intelligence briefings and has been told that Russia is continuing in its attempts to meddle in the upcoming U.S. election. "We know from before, and I guarantee you that I know now, because now I get briefings again. The Russians are still engaged in trying to delegitimize our electoral process. Fact," Biden said July 17. (RFE/RL, 07.18.20)
• William Evanina, the top U.S. counterintelligence official, said July 24 that China, Russia and Iran present the most pressing threats for election interference in the 2020 presidential race. (Axios, 07.24.20)
• A Senate committee released newly declassified documents that showed the FBI was wary in early 2017 of a dossier compiled by ex-British spy Christopher Steele that helped stir a narrative, later debunked, that the Trump campaign had close ties to Russian intelligence. The documents included FBI notes from three days of interviews with a primary source of Steele who cast doubt on some of the dossier's contents. FBI notes from the interview in early 2017 indicated that Steele's source had told him information about Trump's alleged sexual escapades was "rumor and speculation" that he was unable to confirm. Also released were notes of former high-level FBI agent Peter Strzok, who wrote that Steele himself "may not be in a position to judge the reliability of his subsource network.'' (Wall Street Journal, 07.19.20)
• A Russian tech entrepreneur on July 20 began a defamation claim against the British author of a controversial report at the heart of 2016 U.S. election meddling allegations first leaked to BuzzFeed. Alexej Gubarev said in documents released in London's High Court that Steele was responsible for the U.S. news site's January 2017 publication of his dossier. (AFP, 07.21.20)
• Trump’s first intelligence briefing as a candidate in August 2016 was led by FBI agents who had just opened an investigation into his team’s ties to Russia, according to a newly declassified document obtained by Politico. (Politico, 07.23.20)
• U.K. ministers “actively avoided” any investigation into the threat of Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum despite Britain being one of the Kremlin’s “top Western targets,” members of the Intelligence and Security Committee said July 21. Its long-awaited report on Russia concludes that while there were many publicly available reports of Russian attempts to influence the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and the EU referendum two years later, the U.K. government failed to order a proper inquiry into the issue while Britain’s security services appeared reluctant to take the initiative themselves. Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, called the report “fake-shaped Russophobia.” (Financial Times, 07.21.20)
  • Britain’s main security agencies face criticism in the report by the parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee—not least because MI5’s response to the committee’s queries on the issue of possible interference in the EU referendum was limited to six lines of text, partly referencing open-source academic studies. The report states that 20 years ago, MI5, the U.K.’s domestic security service, devoted 20 percent of its effort to hostile state activity including Russia, China and Iran. (Financial Times, 07.22.20)
  • U.K. ministers have pledged to “modernize” espionage laws to help security services crack down on foreign agents, as they “categorically rejected” any suggestion that the government had taken its eye off the ball on managing the Russia threat. (Financial Times, 07.22.20)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The U.S. House of Representatives on July 20 passed an amendment to the NDAA that would impose new sanctions on companies helping Russia complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany. The NDAA must be approved by the Senate and signed by the president before the new sanctions would become law. (RFE/RL, 07.21.20)
  • “The U.S. administration is disrespecting Europe’s right and sovereignty to decide itself where and how we source our energy,” said Heiko Maas, Germany’s foreign minister in reference to U.S. sanctions on Nord Stream 2. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said he was “deeply concerned at the growing use of sanctions, or the threat of sanctions, by the United States against European companies and interests.” (New York Times, 07.24.20)
• U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he had a “positive meeting” with his counterparts from Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands as they discussed Arctic cooperation. Pompeo also discussed energy security, including the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which runs through Denmark’s economic waters. (RFE/RL, 07.22.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• KFC has partnered with a Russian biotech research firm to create the world’s first laboratory-produced chicken nuggets this fall. The fast-food chain and Russia’s 3D Bioprinting Solutions announced the partnership July 23 amid a growing global race to find safe and authentic-tasting meat alternatives. 3D Bioprinting Solutions will use chicken cells and plant material to “reproduce the taste and texture of chicken meat almost without involving animals,” while KFC will provide its signature breading and spices. (The Moscow Times, 07.20.20)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• “The recent steps that we have taken in relation to Russia are simply a part of our … push back against a long-standing pattern of behavior that is virtually impossible for us to make progress in any way, shape or form with the Russians,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun told Senate Foreign Relations hearings on U.S.-China relations. (C-Span, 07.24.20)
• Lawyers for former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, who was sentenced in Moscow to 16 years in prison on espionage charges in mid-June, say their client may be exchanged in September for Russian nationals held in the U.S. Reports in June said that Russian and U.S. officials were in talks on a possible swap of Whelan for two Russians—Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko—who are serving lengthy sentences in U.S. prisons. (RFE/RL, 07.20.20)
• Ramzan Kadyrov, the authoritarian leader of Russia's North Caucasus region of Chechnya, has declared "sanctions" against Pompeo. The announcement comes three days after the U.S. levied additional targeted sanctions against Kadyrov, his wife and his two daughters because of "his involvement in gross violations of human rights." Meanwhile, Putin has awarded the rank of military major general to Kadyrov. (RFE/RL, 07.24.20)
• Camouflaged men attacked a Russian news crew during a crackdown on anti-racism protesters in the U.S. city of Portland, Russian state-run television said July 22. Russia’s Channel One broadcaster said it believes federal agents ripped off its journalist’s helmet and knocked down its cameraman with a baton, state-run RIA Novosti reported. (The Moscow Times, 07.22.20)
• Attorneys for Michael Flynn and the Trump administration each urged a full federal appeals court in Washington on July 20 not to rehear Flynn’s case, arguing that an earlier order requiring a U.S. judge to dismiss the prosecution should stand. (The Washington Post, 07.21.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed 5,811 new coronavirus infections July 24, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 800,849. Over the past 24 hours, 154 people have died, bringing the total toll to 13,046—a rate considerably lower than in many other countries hit hard by the pandemic. A total of 8,444 people recovered over the last 24 hours, bringing the overall number of recoveries to 588,774. (The Moscow Times, 07.24.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• According to its statistics office, St. Petersburg recorded 9,560 cases of community-acquired pneumonia this May, or 9.9 times more than last May. (The Moscow Times, 07.24.20)
• Russia plans to administer its experimental coronavirus vaccine on healthcare professionals next month before its clinical trials are completed, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said. (The Moscow Times, 07.24.20)
• About 50 million Russians—or a third of the population—could be vaccinated “in the near future,” said Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive of the Russian Direct Investment Fund. Dmitriev believes Russia may completely inoculate its population by early 2021, a move that “could possibly stop a potential second wave of the pandemic” in the country. (Financial Times, 07.22.20)
• Russia's Health Ministry has denied a report by Bloomberg that political and business elites have been given early access to an experimental vaccine against COVID-19. On July 19, Bloomberg cited an unnamed individual close to the work on developing the vaccine at the Moscow-based Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology as saying that several hundred people had received the experimental vaccine since April. The news agency added that its reporters had also talked to some participants in the experiment who received the vaccine free of charge. (RFE/RL, 07.20.20)
• In May 2018, Putin set out the ambitious goal of getting the Russian economy in the top five globally by 2024. Two years of stagnation later, and he’s quietly dropping the target. A raft of other objectives that were laid out in a $400 billion investment and development program have been pushed back to 2030 from an earlier target of 2024, according to a Kremlin decree published July 21. Targets include reducing poverty by half and reversing a drop in incomes that has left Russians poorer than before Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. The 2030 decree aims to triple attendance of cultural events and to get 70 percent of adults to work out regularly. (Bloomberg, 07.21.20) 
• Russia’s central bank cut its benchmark rate to a new record low on July 24 as a national lockdown imposed in response to the coronavirus pandemic continued to weigh on its economy. The 25-basis-point cut took its benchmark lending rate to a post-Soviet low of 4.25 percent. The decision came after the World Bank forecast that the Russian economy would suffer a 6 percent fall in GDP this year. The move is the fourth time this year the central bank has cut its key rate, which started 2020 at 6.25 percent. (Financial Times, 07.24.20)
• Russia's largest airport, Sheremetyevo, the base hub of national air carrier Aeroflot, will postpone the construction of the second stage of Terminal C until at least 2030 due to the coronavirus crisis. (bne IntelliNews, 07.20.20)
• Russia's Watcom Shopping Index, showing foot traffic per 1,000 square meters of trading space, is recovering faster than expected, with Moscow malls reporting 75-80 percent of the traffic compared to last year on the 27th week of 2020 from June 29 to July 5. (bne IntelliNews, 07.20.20)
• Moscow will subsidize holidays taken by Russian tourists who vacation at home instead of the Mediterranean, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said July 22. (The Moscow Times, 07.22.20)
• The first of 163 nuclear fuel assemblies has been loaded into unit two of the Leningrad II nuclear power plant, marking the start of the physical start-up of the VVER-1200, Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom announced. (World Nuclear News, 07.20.20)
• Rapidly melting Arctic permafrost poses the greatest threat to major Russian energy producers’ infrastructure and financial indicators, according to a new Morgan Stanley report. Gazprom, Novatek, Alrosa and Norilsk Nickel—whose fuel tank leaked after sinking into thawing permafrost in May, resulting in a major environmental disaster—stand to lose the most from the phenomenon that releases carbon gases and further fuels global warming. (The Moscow Times, 07.23.20)
• Wildfires in Russia have burned across an area larger than the size of Greece so far in 2020, Greenpeace Russia said July 20 as it criticized the authorities of inaction. (The Moscow Times, 07.20.20)
• Putin on July 20 named a new leader of the Far Eastern region of Khabarovsk from the nationalist LDPR party after the arrest of its popular governor brought thousands to the streets. Putin officially sacked Sergei Furgal, who was detained this month on murder charges, and named LDPR lawmaker Mikhail Degtyarev to replace him. The new head has refused calls by protesters to step down. The demonstrators gathered on the central square in the regional capital, Khabarovsk, on July 22, chanting "Putin must resign" and "No trust in 20 years," referring to Putin's ruling the country as president or prime minister since 1999. (AFP, 07.20.20, The Moscow Times, 07.22.20, RFE/RL, 07.22.20)
• Russia's upper chamber of parliament, the Federation Council, has approved a bill that allows voting over as many as three days during elections. (RFE/RL, 07.24.20)
• Prominent Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny is closing his foundation. The Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) has faced a number of lawsuits over its video investigations targeting figures ranging from former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Oleg Deripaska. The Russian courts have sided with the plaintiffs and ordered the FBK to pay large fines for what they ruled to be false or defamatory information. (The Moscow Times, 07.20.20)
• Police in Moscow have detained several demonstrators who were demanding the immediate release of activists serving prison terms from the high-profile “Rostov case,” related to mass protests in 2017. (RFE/RL, 07.23.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin on July 20 boasted of Russia’s naval capabilities. Speaking at the Zaliv shipyard in the city of Kerch, Putin said Russia will continue to develop its naval force, with the share of modern ships to exceed 70 percent of its fleet by 2027. During July 20's ceremony, two Project 23900 amphibious assault ships were laid down at the Zaliv shipyard; two Admiral Grigorovich-class stealth frigates were laid down at a shipyard in St. Petersburg; and two Yasen M-class nuclear submarines were laid down at a shipyard in the Arkhangelsk region. (The Moscow Times, 07.20.20)
• On July 16, Sevmash launched the Knyaz Oleg ballistic missile submarine of the Project 955A class. It is the fifth submarine in the Project 955 line and the second Project 955A ship. Construction of the submarine began in July 2014. In 2016, it was expected that it would be ready for service in 2019. Today, it appears that Knyaz Oleg will join the navy in 2022-2023. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 07.16.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The extended family of a Chechen dissident murdered in Austria earlier this month has claimed responsibility for his killing and attempted to absolve the Russian region’s Kremlin-backed leader. Two ethnic Chechens were arrested after the body of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s reported “personal foe,” Mamikhan Umarov, was found in Vienna on July 4. Suspicions immediately fell on Kadyrov as it was the fourth attack and third murder of a Kadyrov critic in Europe. (The Moscow Times, 07.23.20)
• A top executive of disgraced payments company Wirecard is believed to be in hiding near Moscow under the protection of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency, the German newspaper Handelsblatt reported July 19. German authorities arrested its ex-CEO, and former chief operating officer Jan Marsalek is on the run from as many as three Western intelligence agencies. (The Moscow Times, 07.20.20)
• The Moscow metro plans to equip around 1,500 subway cars with facial recognition technology by the end of 2020. (The Moscow Times, 07.22.20)
• Yury Dmitriyev, a Russian historian and human rights activist, has been sentenced to 3 1/2 years in prison on charges of sexually assaulting his adopted daughter—an allegation he and his supporters deny. (RFE/RL, 07.21.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergey Ryabkov and Alexander Grushko had a substantial exchange of opinions on European and global security with their French counterparts in Paris. The Russian Foreign Ministry noted that the discussed agenda included arms control, strategic stability, "the absence of political settlement of Syrian and Libyan conflicts, as well as importance of preservation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear program," the situation in the Central African Republic and the Sahara-Sahel Region. During the discussion of Ukraine, "an emphasis was made on strict compliance with the Minsk agreements and the decisions of the Dec. 9, 2019, Normandy Four Paris Summit." Having seen their deputies meet, Russia’s and France’s foreign ministers and defense ministers now plan to meet in Paris, too. (Russia Matters, 07.22.20, TASS, 07.16.20, Gazeta.ru, 07.16.20)
• The United States military has said Russia appears to be sending more military equipment to its mercenaries in Libya, including in the flashpoint city of Sirte, in breach of an arms embargo. The U.S. military's Africa Command said July 24 there was mounting evidence from satellite photos of Moscow's military cargo planes bringing supplies to fighters from Russian private military contractor Wagner Group. (Al Jazeera, 07.24.20)
• Russia and Turkey have agreed to set up a joint working group seeking peace for Libya, the two countries said in a joint statement released after talks in Ankara. On July 21-22, a Russian inter-departmental delegation, headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin and featuring defense officials, held talks with Turkish counterparts headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal. (TASS, 07.22.20)
• The U.S. military says Turkey sent more than 3,500 Syrian fighters to Libya during the first three months of 2020 to help the North African country’s internationally recognized government in its civil war against a rebel commander. (bne IntelliNews, 07.22.20, RFE/RL, 07.18.20)
• Affiliates of the Wagner Group, a quasi-private Russian military security contractor, have found a new way to burnish their tarnished reputations: delivering coronavirus-related aid. In April, a Wagner-linked Russian security contractor, Evro Polis, delivered 50 ventilators, 10,000 coronavirus test kits and 2,000 items of protective clothing to Syria, according to reports in Syrian state media and a statement on the website of the Russian Embassy in Damascus. In April, the Sudan News Agency reported that Wagner-connected company Meroe Gold was planning to ship personal protective equipment, medicine and other equipment to the country. (Foreign Policy, 07.22.20)
• Russia plans to resume some international flights from Aug. 1, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova said July 24, but the list of destinations will initially be limited to Tanzania, Turkey and the United Kingdom. (Reuters, 07.24.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Pompeo was asked whether it is possible to "coax them [Russia] into the battle to be relentlessly candid about the Chinese Communist Party." "I do think there’s that opportunity," Pompeo said. "That opportunity is born of the natural relationship between Russia and China. And we can do something as well, there are places where we need to work with Russia." Russia never joins alliances against anyone, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said commenting on Pompeo’s call for alliance against China. The U.S. and Western nations are seeking to set Russia and China against each other in the public sphere, but their attempts are doomed to failure, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said July 24. (TASS, 07.23.20, TASS, 07.24.20)
• "Russia-China relations have reached unprecedented heights and are rightly viewed as an example of cooperation between countries in today’s world. Efforts by Moscow and Beijing to coordinate steps to resolve pressing global and regional issues contribute to ensuring international security and stability," Putin wrote in greetings to participants in an event dubbed The United Russia—Communist Party of China Dialogue. (TASS, 07.23.20)
• "Major items remain on the political agenda for the second half of the year," Russian Ambassador to Beijing Andrei Denisov said. "It particularly concerns Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China and the participation of Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping in the summits of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS in Russia, as well as the 25th meeting of the Russian and Chinese prime ministers.” China on July 24 said the BRICS nations are in communications to hold their foreign ministers meeting in Russia in September. (TASS, 07.23.20, Kashmir Reader, 07.24.20)
• The Biden team is critical of the current administration for what it sees as lumping Russia and China together in the National Defense Strategy when they require distinct approaches. “Just kind of saying … 'we’ve got to deal with Russia and China' is the wrong way to think about it,” said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s top national security aide from 2013 to 2014, and chief foreign policy adviser to 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. “The nature of China’s economic and technological challenge to the U.S. is different from the more asymmetric, military challenge [from Russia.]” (Politico, 07.22.20)

Ukraine:

• Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE have reached an agreement for a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine from July 27. “The regime of full and comprehensive cease-fire, if observed by the other party, is a basic precondition for the implementation of the Minsk agreements and opens the way to the implementation of other provisions of these agreements,” the Ukrainian president’s office said July 22. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was elected last year on promises to end the conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk. (RFE/RL, 07.22.20)
• One Ukrainian solider was killed by Donbass separatists in the area of the settlement of Shumy, Interfax reported July 20. (Russia Matters, 07.20.20)
• The U.S. Senate has backed the NDAA for Fiscal Year 2021, which provides $250 million in security assistance for Ukraine. (UNIAN, 07.24.20)
• The U.S. has approved the sale of up to 16 Mark VI patrol boats and related equipment to Ukraine, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. (Interfax, 07.18.20)
• A campaign ad for Trump that aims to promote him as a guarantor of public safety features a photo of pro-democracy protesters in Ukraine battling with police during the 2014 Maidan events. The ad, which appeared on the president’s official Facebook page, consists of two images: one showing Trump standing alongside law enforcement officials on the left side and citizens in helmets fighting with police on the other side. The caption below the photos reads “Public Safety vs Chaos & Violence.” (RFE/RL, 07.22.20)
• If Biden wins in November, he would sharply increase shipments of lethal weapons to Ukraine in an escalation of the Obama administration's policy toward the country, his top foreign policy aides tell Politico. Specifically, Biden would send weapons that are critical to defending against Russian coastal attacks such as anti-ship missiles and patrol boats, his aides said. Increasing lethal aid would be just one part of a “holistic” approach to pushing back harder on Russian influence in Ukraine, which would include continuing to send U.S. military trainers and stepping up efforts to urge political and economic reform, they added. (Politico, 07.22.20)
• Sea Breeze 2020, a multinational naval exercise, has been launched in the Ukrainian waters of the Black Sea. Personnel from nine countries, 27 vessels and 19 aircraft are taking part in the exercises. The Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Porter entered the Black Sea to participate in the drills. Additional U.S. Navy P-8 aircraft from Patrol Squadron VP (47) will be participating in the U.S. and Ukrainian co-hosted drills. (RFE/RL, 07.20.20)
• Zelenskiy has welcomed Iran's handover to France of the flight recorders from a Ukrainian airliner that was downed shortly after taking off from Tehran on Jan. 8. (RFE/RL, 07.20.20)
• Russian, Georgian and Ukrainian diplomats and officials cooperated successfully during the evacuation program launched due to the coronavirus pandemic, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. (TASS, 07.20.20)
• Visiting Swiss President Simonetta Sommaruga and Zelenskiy have visited the Donbass. The two presidents met with the governor of the Kyiv-controlled part of the Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko, and visited the Donbass water company, according to the Ukrainian president’s website. (RFE/RL, 07.23.20)
• Ukraine signed an agreement with the European Commission on July 23 for a 1.2 billion euro (1 billion pounds) loan from the EU, Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said. (Reuters, 07.23.20)
• Ukraine says it has canceled visa requirements for citizens of Australia, New Zealand, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia. (RFE/RL, 07.22.20)
• Ukrainian police freed 13 hostages and arrested an armed man who held them on a bus for more than 12 hours on July 21, after the country's president agreed to his demand to post a movie recommendation on social media. (The Moscow Times, 07.22.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Three women, Veronika Tsepkalo, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and Maria Kolesnikova, have teamed up to fight presidential polls in Belarus, pitting "female solidarity" against strongman Alexander Lukashenko, who insists the country is not ready for a woman president. In her first appearance on Belarusian state television as a registered candidate for the Aug. 9 presidential election, Tikhanovskaya said she'll announce a new, free and fair presidential vote, if elected, and sharply criticized the current system. (The Moscow Times, 07.20.20, bne IntelliNews, 07.23.20)
• EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has held a three-way phone call with the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in a bid to de-escalate tensions amid a flare-up of violence along their border. The July 22 call with Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ceyhun Bayramov, was the first such direct diplomacy to bring the three parties together for talks. Borell called on both sides to commit to a cease-fire and take immediate action to de-escalate the situation. (RFE/RL, 07.22.20)
• The Armenian military has accused Azerbaijani forces of again attacking one of its positions at a section of the border where deadly fighting raged last week. Defense Ministry spokeswoman Shushan Stepanian said late on July 21 that an Azerbaijani commando unit suffered heavy losses while being repelled by Armenian troops deployed in the Tavush region. Some of the unit's soldiers were "left trapped" as a result of the failed incursion, she said without elaborating. (RFE/RL, 07.22.20)
• Russia is using frozen conflicts in Georgia’s breakaway regions to further undermine the Caucasian nation’s stability and the viability of its bid to join the European community, according to a U.S. State Department report obtained by Foreign Policy, using physical obstructions to harden borders and prevent access.  In a yearly report to Congress sent in May marked “sensitive but unclassified,” the State Department said open-source reporting indicated that Russia provided up to $275 million in 2019 to finance the vast majority of state budgets in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. (Foreign Policy, 07.17.20)
  • Two-sided battalion tactical drills of the Southern Military District are taking place simultaneously in eleven regions of southern Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the district's press service said. (Interfax, 07.23.20)
• Turkmenistan, the only country in Central Asia that has not confirmed a single coronavirus case within its borders, has imposed restrictions to "prevent" an outbreak of the deadly virus. The restrictions were imposed for the period between July 2 and Aug. 1, during which large shopping malls, marketplaces, theaters, parks and sports venues will be closed. Restaurants, cafeterias and fast food businesses are also temporarily closed and can only offer food delivery services. Turkmenistan is also using planes to spray disinfectants over fields and towns to battle “infectious diseases.” (RFE/RL, 07.22.20, RFE/RL, 07.23.20)
• Moldova’s industrial output decreased by 12.5 percent year on year in May, partly recovering from the 25 percent contraction seen in the month before. (bne IntelliNews, 07.22.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.