This Week’s Highlights

• During the US-Russian summit on June 16 Russian President Vladimir Putin offered U.S. counterpart Joe Biden the use of Russian military bases in Central Asia for information gathering from Afghanistan. Putin proposed to coordinate on Afghanistan and put Russia's bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to "practical use.” There has not been no concrete response from the US side, Kommersant,and TOLO news reported.  
• The presence of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan and its efforts to combat terrorist groups can be seen as a positive factor from the point of view of the security of Russia’s Central Asian partners, Russian presidential special envoy for Afghanistan Zamit Kabulov said, according to TASS. Moscow has no plans yet to remove the Taliban from its list of banned organizations, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on July 23, TASS reported.
• Bonnie Jenkins, whom Biden nominated as undersecretary of State for arms control and international security affairs in March and who was confirmed in that capacity by the Senate on July 21, is to meet Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov in Geneva on July 28 for the first round of Strategic Stability Dialogue since last year, The Hill reported.
• Russian negotiators and representatives of the Biden administration have already held four rounds of consultations on cybersecurity issues,  Ryabkov told a Russian-American dialogue on nuclear issues. One of these rounds were held in Geneva last week, Kommersant reported.
• Russia has “successfully disconnected” from the world wide web during tests of its “sovereign internet” technology, RBC reported. One source said it “aimed to determine whether RuNet could work in the event of external distortions, blockages and other threats.” The final results of the coronavirus-delayed “sovereign internet” tests are expected by Aug. 31, according to The Moscow Times. 
• The United States and Germany say they have reached an agreement to allow the completion of Nord Stream 2. In a joint statement on July 21, the United States and Germany said they have agreed on a package of measures, including the possible implementation of sanctions against Russia, that will aim to soften any impact on Ukraine's budget and national security from the completion of the Kremlin-backed project, RFE/RL reported. 
• The EU’s proposal for a carbon border levy to combat climate change has triggered a sharp response from trading partners led by Russia. Russia hit out at the proposal for so-called carbon border adjustment mechanism and calculated that it stood to lose $7.6bn from it, making Moscow potentially one of the biggest losers from the measures, according to the Financial Times. 
• The Sukhoi Company is developing a two-seat version of the Checkmate single-engine light tactical fighter, company spokeswoman Anastasia Kravchenko said at the MAKS 2021 aerospace show. The stealth fighter jet, designed to compete with the U.S. F-35 and capable of striking six targets simultaneously, is expected to take to the skies in 2023 with a first batch due to be produced in 2026. U.S. intelligence have reportedly nicknamed the new Russian fighter jet a “Screamer, as reported by TASS and Defence Blog. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• Belarus plans by 2030 to create a storage facility for spent nuclear fuel (SNF), where radioactive waste from the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant (BelNPP) will be stored after being processed on Russian territory. (Interfax, 07.22.21)
• Former Sandia director Jill Hruby was confirmed on July 22 as the next leader of the National Nuclear Security Administration. (Post and Courier, 07.22.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The United States has said it believes the North Korean government was earning more than $500 million a year from nearly 100,000 workers abroad before the U.N. sanctions were imposed. About 50,000 of those workers were in China and 30,000 in Russia. (The Washington Post, 07.18.21)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has rejected a draft agreement negotiated indirectly with the U.S. over the past three months in Vienna. Ali Rabiee, a spokesman for the outgoing government of President Hassan Rouhani said that the outgoing government finished negotiating a draft agreement for a mutual return to compliance, which he claimed included the lifting of most of the sanctions. "However, the committee formed in the Supreme National Security Council decided the draft agreement is incompatible with the law passed by parliament in December about resuming Iran’s nuclear program," he said. (Axios, 07.20.21)
• International monitors are watching Iran’s fast-expanding nuclear program with growing alarm, as Tehran refuses to extend an expired inspections pact and insists the experts must trust that it’s accurately documenting uranium-enrichment activities. Iran claims it’s still preserving data captured by International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring equipment, but officials won’t give IAEA investigators access to it until Iran concludes stalled talks with world powers on JCPOA. (Bloomberg, 07.19.21)

Great Power Rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• During the US-Russian summit on June 16 Russian President Vladimir Putin offered U.S. counterpart Joe Biden the use of Russian military bases in Central Asia for information gathering from Afghanistan. Putin proposed to coordinate on Afghanistan and put Russia's bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to "practical use.” This could involve the exchange of information obtained using drones but that there has been no concrete response from the U.S. side. (Kommersant, 07.17.21, TOLO news, 07.18.21) See more in the section on Russia’s post-Soviet neighbors.
• The U.S. Department of Defense leaves the possibility of Russia’s indirect participation in the maintenance of Afghanistan’s Russian-made Mi-17 helicopters, including purchases of spare parts from Russian companies, a defense official told TASS on July 20. (TASS, 07.20.21)
• The C.I.A. is stepping up efforts to confront the cause and effects of mysterious sonic incidents, believed to be attacks, that have injured U.S. officials, by increasing medical staff and assigning an agency veteran who hunted Osama bin Laden, the agency’s director, William J. Burns, said. A senior CIA officer who played a leading role in the hunt for Osama bin Laden will head a task force investigating the cause of mysterious, debilitating illnesses (The Washington Post, The New York Times, 07.22.21)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Bonnie Jenkins, whom Biden nominated as under secretary of State for arms control and international security affairs in March and who was confirmed in that capacity by the Senate on July 21, is to meet Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov in Geneva on July 28 for the first round of Strategic Stability Dialogue since last year (The Hill, 07.19.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been sworn in as head of state for a fourth seven-year term in office. (TASS, 07.17.21)
• Syria’s air defense forces shot down seven out of eight missiles launched by Israeli warplanes during a raid that targeted the Syrian province of Aleppo, the Russian military said July 20. (AP, 07.20.21)
• Kurdish politicians in Syria are divided over Russia’s invitation to hold a dialogue with the Syrian government. While some accepted the invitation based on conditions, others were skeptical and questioned the feasibility of such a move. (Al Monitor, 07.13.21)

Cyber security:

• Russian negotiators and representatives of the Biden administration have already held four rounds of consultations on cybersecurity issues, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov told a Russian-American dialogue on nuclear issues. One of these rounds were held in Geneva last week, Kommersant reported. (Russia Matters, 07.23.21) 
• Russia has “successfully disconnected” from the world wide web during tests of its “sovereign internet” technology, RBC reported. One source said it “aimed to determine whether RuNet could work in the event of external distortions, blockages and other threats.” The final results of the coronavirus-delayed “sovereign internet” tests are expected by Aug. 31. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.22.21)
• The U.S. company whose software was exploited in a recent global ransomware attack has received a universal key needed to decrypt the data belonging to the more than 1,000 businesses and public organizations affected by the attack. A spokeswoman for the company, Kaseya, would not say how the key was obtained or whether a ransom was paid. (RFE/RL, 07.23.21)
• A Russian hacker considered to be one of the world's most notorious spammers was sentenced by a U.S. judge on July 20 to time already served in pretrial detention. Pyotr Levashov has already served 33 months in custody on federal charges he operated a network of hijacked computers—known as botnets—to steal computer credentials, distribute spam, and install malicious software. (RFE/RL, 07.21.21)
• The Kremlin sees no need to take extra security measures in light of revelations that Israeli-made Pegasus spyware was misused to monitor politicians, journalists and activists around the world. Cybersecurity expert Andrei Soldatov attributed their absence to Russian security services’ aversion toward importing foreign-made surveillance tools. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.21.21)
  • Russian-born, Dubai-based tech billionaire Pavel Durov’s phone number is listed among the 50,000 numbers believed to have been chosen for global surveillance through military-grade Pegasus spyware, The Guardian reported July 21. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.21.21)
  • The president of the European Commission says the usage of spyware against journalists is "completely unacceptable" as outrage builds globally after a new report alleged several governments, including EU-member Hungary, used an Israeli group’s NSO program to hack the smartphones of journalists, government officials, and rights activists worldwide. The NSO Group clients included the governments of Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Togo, and the United Arab Emirates. (RFE/RL, 07.19.21)
• The White House has accused the Chinese government of teaming up with criminal gangs to commit widespread cyber-attacks, including one on Microsoft this year that affected tens of thousands of organizations. The accusation came as the U.S. Justice department unsealed an indictment alleging that four Chinese nationals affiliated with the Ministry of State Security had overseen a separate campaign to hack companies, universities and government entities in the United States and overseas between 2011 and 2018. (Financial Times, 07.19.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The United States and Germany say they have reached an agreement to allow the completion of Nord Stream 2. In a joint statement on July 21, the United States and Germany said they have agreed on a package of measures, including the possible implementation of sanctions against Russia, that will aim to soften any impact on Ukraine's budget and national security from the completion of the Kremlin-backed project. "Should Russia attempt to use energy as a weapon or commit further aggressive acts against Ukraine, Germany will take action at the national level and press for effective measures at the European level, including sanctions, to limit Russian export capabilities to Europe in the energy sector, including gas, and/or in other economically relevant sectors," the statement said. Germany will also appoint a special envoy to negotiate a 10-year extension of Russia's current transit agreement with Ukraine, which expires at the end of 2024, the statement said. The U.S.-German deal also calls for the creation of a $1 billion "green fund" to support both Ukraine and Poland's energy industry and security. Germany will establish and administer the fund and immediately contribute $175 million. (RFE/RL, 07.21.21)
  • ''Nord Stream is 99 percent finished,'' President Biden told reporters on July 21 night. ''The idea that anything was going to be said or done that was going to stop it is not possible.'' State Department officials who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity said the Biden administration continued to have ''profound differences'' with Germany over the project. (The New York Times, 07.22.21)
  •  While in Kyiv U.S. State Department Counselor Derek Chollet rejected a report that the United States had been urging Ukraine to remain silent about its complaints over the Russian gas pipeline, adding that "Ukraine is a democratic country, it has its own voice." (RFE/RL, 07.21.21)
  • The Kremlin said on July 21 that Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel had expressed their satisfaction with the near completion of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline during phone talks." (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.21.21)
  • Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv had officially initiated consultations with the European Commission and Germany, claiming Nord Stream 2 violates the bloc's energy-diversification principle. (RFE/RL, 07.21.21)
  • The foreign ministers of Ukraine and Poland said in a joint statement the proposals were “superficial and cannot be considered sufficient to effectively limit the threats created by Nord Stream 2”. (Financial Times, 07.22.21)
• Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday that Russia will raise its oil output in the second half of the year thanks to the new deal agreed by the OPEC+ group of leading oil producing countries to increase their total production. Novak said Russia will start increasing oil output monthly by 100,000 barrels per day from this August and reach pre-crisis level of production in May 2022. OPEC and its allies have reached a deal to raise oil production in response to soaring prices, and set a target for the end of 2022 for restoring all the output cut during the early days of the pandemic (Reuters, 07.18.21, Financial Times, 07.18.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• American investor Michael Calvey reiterated his innocence and said his acquittal “could lead to billions of dollars in new investment in Russia” in his final statement to court on July 19. Russian prosecutors are seeking a six-year suspended sentence for Calvey, who has been one of the country’s leading foreign investors for decades, in a criminal embezzlement case that has sent shockwaves through the Russian business establishment. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.19.21)
• A Russian court has fined U.S. social-media giant Facebook and messaging app Telegram again for failing to delete content Moscow deems illegal. The Magistrates Court in the Taganka district said on July 22 it had fined Facebook 6 million rubles ($81,000) and Telegram 11 million rubles ($149,000) on two protocols filed by Russia's communications watchdog, Roskomnadzor. (RFE/RL, 07.22.21)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia on  July 23 reported 23,811 new coronavirus cases and 795 deaths. Russia has confirmed 6,078,523 cases of coronavirus and 152,296 deaths, according to the national coronavirus information center. Russia’s total excess fatality count since the start of the coronavirus pandemic is around 483,000. (The Moscow Times, 07.23.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
• Scientists believe that Russia has reached 60% herd immunity through a combination of vaccines and infections as the country struggles to increase vaccination rates amid a deadly Delta variant-driven surge in the pandemic. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.19.21)
• Deaths in Russia from drug-related causes jumped 60 percent in 2020 compared to a year earlier, mirroring trends elsewhere in the world during the coronavirus pandemic. Last year, 7,316 people died from drug overdoses, up from 4,569 deaths a year earlier. (RFE/RL, 07.18.21)
• Divorces in Russia have reached a seven-year high so far in 2021 with the country’s conservative, Muslim-majority regions unexpectedly seeing the biggest increases, the MBKh Media news website reported on July 21. The 251,000 divorces filed between January-May accounted for a 44% increase over the same period in 2020, the outlet said, citing the FinExpertiza consultancy. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.23.21)
• The Central Bank of Russia raised its key rate by 100 basis points to 6.50% per annum on July 23. “The growth of the Russian economy sped up in the second quarter, and inflationary pressure turned out to be higher and more persistent than forecast. Some sectors are already demonstrating signs of overheating,” said CBR governor Elvira Nabiullina, following a meeting of the bank’s board of directors. (bne IntelliNews, 07.23.21)
• Unit 4 of the Kola nuclear power plant in Murmansk, Russia has successfully completed the fifth cycle of irradiation using "third generation" RK-3 fuel designed for VVER-440 reactors. During the planned fuel loading, a televisual inspection of the irradiated fuel was performed with the help of specialized equipment, which showed that, after five irradiation cycles, all RK-3 assemblies had retained their original shape and all the fuel rods were sealed. (World Nuclear News, 07.23.21)
• Putin’s personal approval rating remains stable having risen from 65% in April to 67% in May before falling back to 66% in June – a level it has been sitting at for most of the last decade, according to Levada. The number of Russians that think the country is going in the “right direction” has decreased in the summer down to 49% in June from 51% in May, but at the same level as at the start of the year. (bne IntelliNews, 07.19.21)
• Russia added investigative news website The Insider to its registry of “foreign agents” July 23, a designation that risks cratering its business model. The Insider is best known for its work alongside U.K.-based Bellingcat in investigating the 2020 poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny and the 2018 poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal in Britain. It is the 16th independent media outlet in Russia to be labeled a “foreign agent,” a designation that imposes rigorous auditing requirements with steep fines for violations. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.23.21)
• An a sociation of Russian human rights lawyers linked to jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny’s group says it has suspended its work to protect its members and supporters from criminal prosecution amid a government pressure campaign, Komanda 29 announced on July 18 that it was liquidating, the latest independent civil-society organization to fold under new, repressive "foreign agent" laws. (RFE/RL, 07.18.21)
• Police in Moscow have detained two former members of jailed opposition politician Alexei Navalny's team and extended the house arrest of his spokeswoman as a state pressure campaign against civil society groups continues. Lawyer Aleksandr Salamov said on July 21 that Andrei Akhmedulov and Sofia Kapinosova were detained in a move that may be linked to a fraud probe launched against Navalny. (RFE/RL, 07.21.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia said July 19 it had carried out another successful test of its Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile, a new addition to an arsenal of weapons called "invincible" by Putin. Moscow has in recent years touted the development of futuristic weapons which it hopes will give it the edge in any arms race with the United States at a time of growing tensions with the West. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.19.21)
• The Sukhoi Company is developing a two-seat version of the Checkmate single-engine light tactical fighter, company spokeswoman Anastasia Kravchenko said in an interview with the Rossiya 24 TV channel at the MAKS 2021 aerospace show. The stealth fighter jet, designed to compete with the U.S. F-35 and capable of striking six targets simultaneously, is expected to take to the skies in 2023 with its first batch due to be produced in 2026. U.S. intelligence have nicknamed the new Russian fighter jet “Screamer” (TASS, 07.23.21, Defence Blog, 07.22.21, Defence Blog, 07.18.21)
• The Russian Ministry of Defense has released video footage that showing the test launch of the newest S-500 surface-to-air missile system. For the first time, the Russian military reveals its new air defense system based on a 10-wheel drive military truck chassis BAZ-69096. the new air defense system would be able to detect and simultaneously engage up to 10 ballistic hypersonic targets that are flying at a speed ranging from about 11,000 mph to 16,000 mph. (Defence Blog, 07.20.21)

Emergencies, security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry said on July 21 that in the far eastern region of Yakutia, the capital, Yakutsk, as well as 107 towns and villages, were currently covered by thick smoke as 208 wildfires rage in the remote region. Aisen Nikolayev, the head of Yakutia said the fires were caused mainly by climate change. In recent years, summer temperatures in the Russian Arctic have gone as high as 100 degrees, feeding enormous blazes that thaw what was once permanently frozen ground. Last year, wildfires scorched more than 60,000 square miles of forest and tundra, an area the size of Florida. That is more than four times the area that burned in the United States during its devastating 2020 fire season. (The New York Times, 07.17.21,RFE/RL, 07.21.21)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has published a list of military information that is off-limits to foreigners on national security grounds, including nearly every aspect of state space agency Roskosmos that has been plagued by corruption scandals in recent years. Among the 61 items on the list, the banned information includes problems that “hinder the development” of Roskosmos (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.20.21)
• Jailed former Russian journalist Ivan Safronov, who is charged with high treason, has slammed state authorities, including the judiciary, for their treatment of suspects and methods used in investigating espionage amid a wave of cases aimed at muzzling dissent. Safronov, a former adviser to the head of Russia's space agency Roskosmos and one-time journalist who has been charged with leaking classified data, published an article outlining how investigators deprive individuals arrested and charged with high treason and espionage of any opportunity to defend themselves. (RFE/RL, 07.23.21)
• Russian investigators said July 20 they have uncovered a multi-million-ruble bribery scheme run by dozens of senior traffic police officers, with the top cop’s golden toilet bowl stealing the show. In what looked more like a luxury real estate ad, the Investigative Committee published footage of police colonel Alexei Safonov’s opulent residence in southern Russia’s Stavropol region following his detention. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.20.21)
• St. Petersburg-based media reported July 19 that it had uncovered a secret underground prison disguised as a cottage with a human-sized crematory in an abandoned village outside Russia’s second city. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.20.21)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• In a statement published late on July 23, a spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged Russia to stop its “unabated crackdown” on independent media outlets, journalists, and civil-society organizations, calling the clampdown ahead of parliamentary elections in September “particularly worrisome.” (RFE/RL, 07.23.21)
• The EU’s proposal for a carbon border levy to combat climate change has triggered a sharp response from trading partners led by Russia. Russia hit out at the proposal for so-called carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and calculated that it stood to lose $7.6bn from it, making Moscow potentially one of the biggest losers from the measures. It is Europe’s biggest supplier of carbon-intensive products, such as oil, coal, rolled steel and aluminum, worth an estimated €10bn in 2019. Total EU imports from Russia amounted to €145bn in 2019, making the bloc Moscow’s largest trading partner, while Russia is the EU’s fifth-largest trading partner. (Financial Times, 07.16.21)
• This week, an $800m fundraising gave the Revolut digital bank Nikolay Storonsky co-founded six years ago a $33bn valuation, making it the biggest private technology company in British history, and one of the largest in the world. (Financial Times, 07.16.21)
• A Russian venture that seeks to take advantage of climate change in the Far North won a key commercial backer Friday when DP World, the gigantic Dubai-based logistics and ports company, signed a deal to help manage operations along sea lanes in the thawing Arctic Ocean. Under the deal, DP World and the Russian company that manages the Northern Sea Route, Rosatom, will design a fleet of ice-class container ships. (The New York Times, 07.23.21)
• A large Iranian navy ship was seen in the Baltic Sea and appears to be heading toward Russia. The Danish Defense Ministry posted aerial photos of the Iranian destroyer Sahand making its way through the Baltic Sea on Thursday, The Associated Press reported. “It is expected that they are on their way to the annual naval parade in St. Petersburg,” the Danish Defense Ministry said. (The Hill, 07.23.21)
• Argentina is in a “very critical situation” as it faces a shortage of second doses of Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine, a senior official told Russian vaccine producers earlier this month in a leaked email obtained by Argentina’s La Nacion newspaper. (The Moscow Times, 07.22.21)
• An upgrade of the Indian Air Force’s Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters to the MiG-29UPG level will be completed in 2022, Director of Russia’s Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation Dmitry Shugayev told TASS at the MAKS 2021 international airshow. (TASS, 07.23.21)
• Russia is set to supply to Indonesia 11 Su-35 multirole jets despite the pressure exerted on the country, Spokeswoman of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation Valeria Reshetnikova told TASS at MAKS-2021 airshow. (TASS, 07.22.21)
• Russia is going ahead with plans to deliver Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets to Myanmar's increasingly isolated military regime, Dmitry Shugayev, the chief of Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.23.21)

Ukraine:

• A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has called on the administration of Biden to reschedule a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in order to allow Congress an opportunity to meet the head of state, saying the White House appears to be “play[ing] politics.” The Biden administration said this week that Zelenskiy would make his long-awaited first official visit to Washington since taking office more than two years ago on August 30, when Congress is on summer recess. (RFE/RL, 07.23.21)
• The current U.S. administration is eager to deepen and strengthen ties with Ukraine, as the two countries' military relationship is of "paramount importance" for Kyiv's establishing a closer relationship with NATO, U.S. State Department Counselor Derek Chollet said in Kyiv. Chollet said the United States will provide more than $400 million in security assistance this year to Ukraine, bringing the total to over $2 billion in seven years. (RFE/RL, 07.21.21)
• Ukraine has received 2 million Moderna COVID-19 vaccine doses from the United States through the international COVAX program. (RFE/RL, 07.19.21)
• Russia has filed a complaint against Ukraine with the European Court of Human Rights saying Kyiv is responsible for the 2014 crash of a Malaysian airliner and civilian deaths and human rights abuses in Russia and Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.22.21)
• The Ukrainian military claims Russia-backed forces used high-caliber artillery to shell the village of New York in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. During the bombardment on the evening of July 15, a shell hit a house in the village and damaged it, leaving piles of smoking rubble. (RFE/RL, 07.16.21)
• Moscow says Russian passport holders in parts of eastern Ukraine that are controlled by Russia-backed separatists will be able to vote online in upcoming Russian parliamentary elections in September. (RFE/RL, 07.21.21)
• Consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 0.2% month on month this June, the same as in June last year. (bne IntelliNews, 07.19.21)         
• With Ukraine’s imports and exports of goods up by 26%, the trade deficit has dwindled to $1.1 billion for the first five months of this year. May 2021 saw a trade surplus of $261 million, the State Statistics Service reported on July 16. At the start of 2021, some economists forecast a goods trade deficit of $8 billion. (Ukraine Business News, 07.19.21)
• Up to 40% of Ukrainians are now immune to Covid-19, said Oleksiy Danilov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, on July 16. He referred to a national survey indicating that one third of Ukrainians have had Covid. (Ukraine Business News, 07.19.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The presence of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan and its efforts to combat terrorist groups can be seen as a positive factor from the point of view of the security of Russia’s Central Asian partners, Russian presidential special envoy for Afghanistan Zamit Kabulov said on July 20. (TASS, 07.20.21)
• Moscow has no plans yet to remove the Taliban from its list of banned organizations, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on July 23. (TASS, 07.23.21)
• Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan will hold joint military maneuvers near the Tajik-Afghan border in early August amid increasing security concerns in Central Asian nations over Taliban offensives against government troops in northern Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 07.19.21)
• Russia will counter militants from Afghanistan if they enter the territories of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan or Kyrgyzstan in line with the current agreements, Russian Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said. (TASS, 07.22.21)
• Moscow expects that no one would dare attempt an act of aggression against members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, taking advantage of the current situation in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a webinar on Russia’s foreign policy on July 23. (TASS, 07.23.21)
• Russia will help Tajikistan build an outpost on the ex-Soviet state’s border with Afghanistan, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.22.21)
• Putin discussed the situation in Afghanistan during a telephone talk with his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rahmon on July 22. (TASS, 07.22.21)
• The armed forces of Tajikistan were put on high alert for the first time in the history of the independent republic at 04:00 a.m. local time (02:00 a.m. Moscow time) for a combat readiness check, the press office of Tajikistan’s president reported on July 22. Tajikistan also relocated thousands of troops to the border with Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 07.22.21, TASS, 07.22.21)
• Tajikistan has said it is ready to shelter up to 100,000 refugees from neighboring Afghanistan amid increasing security concerns in Central Asia over the fallout of the Taliban's territorial gains in the northern part of the war-torn country. (RFE/RL, 07.23.21)
• On July 13-14 when 345 ethnic Kyrgyz from Afghanistan's Badakhshan Province chose to flee the increased fighting in their country and crossed into Tajikistan. Kyrgyz authorities quickly announced they would take the group and the approximately 4,000 livestock they had and resettle them in Kyrgyzstan, as they've done with dozens of other ethnic Kyrgyz from Badakhshan in recent years. (RFE/RL, 07.21.21)
• The U.S. Bankruptcy Court has ruled that the government of Kyrgyzstan is in contempt of court for continuing with its local legal action against Kumtor Gold Company (KGC), a subsidiary of Toronto-based and NYSE-listed Centerra Gold. The latter controlled the country’s flagship gold mine, Kumtor, until the populist Japarov administration seized it in May. (bne IntelliNews, 07.23.21)
• Eighteen military personnel, including a major and a lieutenant, have died in Turkmenistan amid reports about rising tensions along the border with Afghanistan, where Taliban militants have been on an offensive to capture districts in the region. (RFE/RL, 07.20.21)
• Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, European Council President Charles Michel, as well as Presidents of Ukraine and Moldova, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Maia Sandu, respectively, addressed the Batumi International Conference – Georgia’s European Way. (Civil.ge, 07.19.21)
• National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with democratic opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya of Belarus on July 20. Tikhanovskaya has also met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, and State Department Counselor Derek Chollet. (RFE/RL, 07.20.21, The White House, 07.20.21)
• “Now it's impossible to fight openly,'' said Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the unlikely pro-democracy leader from Belarus. ''It's difficult to ask people to go out for demonstrations because of a sense of fear. They see the brutality of the regime, that the most outstanding leaders and prominent figures are in jail. It's really scary.'' (The New York Times, 07.23.21)
• A court in Belarus has handed lengthy prison terms to 11 activists as authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko's crackdown against pro-democracy activists, the independent media, and civil rights groups continues to intensify. (RFE/RL, 07.19.21)
• Belarusian authorities have raided the headquarters of independent newspaper Regionalnaya gazeta and taken into custody three of its journalists as part of a continuing crackdown on media outlets and civil society activists. (RFE/RL, 07.19.21)
• The European Union's border agency says it will deploy 60 guards next week to monitor Lithuania's frontier amid an influx of migrants crossing illegally from Belarus. (RFE/RL, 07.19.21)
• Azerbaijani and Armenian forces exchanged fire for several hours along a section of their border as tensions continue to simmer between the two countries after last year's war over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region (RFE/RL, 07.19.21)
• An Azerbaijani court has sentenced 13 members of Armenia's armed forces to six years in prison on charges of illegally crossing the border and weapons possession.The Baku Court for Major Crimes ruled late on July 23 that the men, who denied the charges, will be deported after serving their prison terms. (RFE/RL, 07.23.21)
• A court in Baku has sentenced a Russian citizen Sergei Dubakov to 10 years in prison on charges of fighting on the Armenian side against Azerbaijan's armed forces in the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region last year. (RFE/RL, 07.22.21)

IV. Quoteworthy:

• Semyon Solomonov, a volunteer firefighter in northeastern Siberia, where for the third year in a row Russia's fast-warming permafrost expanse is reeling from the worst wildfires residents can remember: ''This is not a phase, this is not a cycle—this is the approach of the end of the world.'' (The New York Times, 07.19.21)