4 Things to Know

1. Ukraine’s parliament has approved a sweeping cabinet reshuffle this week, but the move was overshadowed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ouster of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who has been credited for recent successes in Ukraine’s drone war, as well as for fighting corruption in military procurement. Protesters carrying signs such as “This reshuffle is a step toward defeat” and “Fedorov’s dismissal is a gift to Russia” hit the streets of Ukrainian cities on July 16–17, warning that this ouster undermines both much-needed military innovation and the fight against corruption in the Ukrainian defense complex. Speaking after the announcement of his ouster, Fedorov said he had to combat “a great deal of corruption.” Multiple Ukrainian officials and Western journalists have also credited Fedorov with escalating a medium-to-long-range drone strike campaign against Russian energy assets. A number of Ukrainian experts have branded Fedotov’s dismissal, widely seen as Zelenskyy siding with Fedotov’s arch-rival and commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi, as a serious mistake. Zelenskyy named Yevhen Khmara,¹ acting head of the SBU security service, as Fedorov’s replacement after lawmakers balked at his first choice: then-minister of the interior Ihor Klymenko.² For NYT’s video on “Protests Breakout Across Ukraine in Support of Ousted Defense Minister,” click here.*
2. Based on data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, Russian forces made a net gain of 15 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about two-thirds the size of Manhattan Island) in the past four weeks (June 16–July 14, 2026). In comparison, during the previous four-week period (May 19–June 16, 2026), Russia gained a net of 10 square miles, according to DeepState’s data. In contrast, RM’s analysis of ISW data indicates that in the past four weeks (June 16–July 14, 2026), Russia made a net gain of 5 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.
3. CIA Director John Ratcliffe estimated Russian conscripts now survive on average only 20–30 minutes after reaching the front because of Ukraine’s AI‑guided attack drones, Bloomberg reported. U.S. officials estimate Russia is losing about 7,000 soldiers per week, according to this news agency’s July 15 report. It follows from NATO SG Mark Rutte’s recent estimate that Russia is losing around 7,000–8,000 soldiers per week,³ according to RBC-Ukraine. It also follows from recent calculations by one of Germany’s leading experts on the Russian economy, Janis Kluge, that Russia has been adding about 5,500 soldiers per week in the first quarter of 2026. Thus, if these estimates are accurate, Russia has recently been losing more soldiers than it was recruiting. 
4. The EU has quietly allowed Ukraine to use part of a €6 billion ($6.6 billion) defense‑loan tranche to buy Chinese drone components, granting a derogation from rules that normally require purchases inside the EU or from approved partners, FT reported on July 15. Brussels argues the waiver is needed because some key parts cannot yet be sourced in sufficient quantity in Europe, even as it continues to label China a “key enabler” of Russia’s war, according to FT. Harvard University Professor Graham Allison made the following relevant observation on his X account: 1/ Who is the “key enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine? 2/ According to the EU’s chief diplomat @kajakallas: China. As she put it in a Q&A last year: “China is the key enabler of Russia's war.” 3/ The question she failed to address is: who is the “key enabler” of Ukraine’s war with Russia? Who is the key supplier of the critical parts for Ukraine’s drones that Zelenskyy now hails as Ukraine’s best hope for peace? 4/ Again, the answer is: China. 5/ Without components China is selling to both Ukraine and Russia, the drone war that now shapes the battlefield and is reaching beyond it to disrupt key portions of both societies would be radically different. And whose euros are paying for these components for Ukraine’s drones?”

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russian state nuclear chief Alexei Likhachev said the chief engineer of the Russian‑occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Aleksandr Yakovlev, was killed by a Ukrainian drone strike. (Kommersant, 07.15.26)

North Korea:

• Orenburg Mayor Albert Yumadilov said the city abandoned plans to hire North Korean street cleaners because they “won’t come for 55,000 rubles” and are too expensive, despite their “robot-like” work ethic. Instead, Orenburg has brought in 31 Senegalese workers, with four more expected, whom he praised for productivity. Meduza notes Russia has quietly resumed large-scale recruitment of North Koreans on student visas despite U.N. bans. (Meduza, 07.13.26)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• A New York Times investigation reveals Israel and the U.S. covertly cultivated former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—once a Holocaust‑denying hard‑liner—as a potential postwar leader in Tehran. Disillusioned after being barred from office, Ahmadinejad softened his public stance on Israel, criticized Iran’s security forces, and privately signaled readiness to recognize Israel under an Abraham‑Accords‑style deal. Mossad even prepared an operation to extract him from house arrest. The regime‑change plan collapsed as Iran’s leadership proved more resilient than expected and Ahmadinejad ultimately walked away. (New York Times, 07.14.26) 
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry on July 15 warned its citizens in Gulf countries to exercise caution after an interim deal to end the war in the Middle East fell apart and Iran and the United States exchanged back-and-forth strikes. (MT/AFP, 07.15.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

• Ukraine is seeking about €7bn to rebuild and expand power generation after Russian strikes destroyed roughly half its capacity and attacks on energy sites rose 36% this year, Ukrenergo’s chief said. Plans include 5 GW of battery storage, 2 GW of new gas plants, and big solar and wind expansions by 2030. In parallel, Kyiv and European partners are advancing the FREYA anti‑ballistic system as a lower‑cost Patriot alternative and expanding joint air‑defense production. (bne IntelliNews, 07.14.26) 

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• Russia and Ukraine exchanged the remains of more than 530 soldiers killed during the war, the RBC news outlet reported July 16, citing a Russian lawmaker. Ukraine received 501 bodies of its soldiers while handing Russia the remains of 31 soldiers. (MT/AFP, 07.16.26)
• Ukraine’s field of “unknown defender” graves at Kyiv’s new national military cemetery is growing, where more than 300 unidentified soldiers are buried under numbered crosses while DNA work continues. With over 40,000 samples from unidentified bodies and 170,000 from relatives logged so far, officials say identification could take years, mirroring Balkan postwar efforts. Families like that of Ihor Yalynych, located via DNA four years after his death, cannot claim benefits or closure until remains are named. (Washington Post, 07.16.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Based on data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, Russian forces made a net gain of 15 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about two-thirds the size of Manhattan Island) in the past four weeks (June 16–July 14, 2026). In comparison, during the previous four-week period (May 19–June 16, 2026), Russia gained a net of 10 square miles, according to DeepState’s data. In contrast, RM’s analysis of ISW data indicates that in the past four weeks (June 16–July 14, 2026), Russia made a net gain of 5 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 07.16.26)

Friday, July 10, 2026

• On July 10, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Minkivka. (RM, 07.17.26)

Saturday, July 11, 2026

• On July 11, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zatyshok. (RM, 07.17.26)
• Russian ballistic salvos continued to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses overnight July 11, combining with drones and guided bombs in one of the heaviest recent barrages on Kyiv. Zelenskyy said Russia launched more than 120 drones and 12 missiles, including “ultra‑fast” ballistic types, noting that “our defenders managed to shoot down most of the targets, but not the ballistics.” Ukrainian officials reported at least six people killed nationwide and 11–12 wounded in the capital, including children, as residential buildings, offices and a theological seminary in Kyiv were hit and fires broke out in at least three districts before being contained. (RFE/RL, 07.11.26; iStories, 07.11.26)
• Ukrainian drones targeted four vessels in Taganrog Bay in the Sea of Azov, including a tanker carrying methanol, killing one sailor on a technical support ship and damaging all four vessels to varying degrees, Russian officials said. Rostov governor Yury Slyusar stressed there was “no risk of a methanol spill or leak” and said more than 1½ dozen drones were destroyed over the region as fires at Taganrog port and two fuel depots were extinguished the following morning. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported air defenses downed a total of 178 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions. (Bloomberg, 07.11.26; The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.11.26)
• Russia has temporarily halted shipping through the Don‑Azov Channel, which links the Don River to the Sea of Azov, after a Ukrainian attack on 13 Russian vessels, including 10 tankers, industry sources said. (Reuters, 07.11.26)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has signed a decree creating a special “long‑range command” within Ukraine’s Armed Forces to concentrate “100%” of available resources on striking deep into Russia and further degrading its military potential. (Meduza, 07.11.26)

Sunday, July 12, 2026

• On July 12, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zaliznychne. (RM, 07.17.26)
• Russian forces are closing in on Kostyantynivka, an eastern Ukrainian city that once produced the Kremlin’s ruby stars, advancing from three directions and turning it into a drone‑dominated “kill zone.” The city is a key node in Ukraine’s “fortress belt” shielding Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and Lyman; its fall would expose these cities and give Vladimir Putin a major symbolic and operational gain. (Financial Times, 07.12.26) 
• On July 12, Russia launched 12 missiles — including six ballistic — and 121 drones; Ukraine says it downed or suppressed 111 drones and two missiles, but all ballistic missiles penetrated. Some 6–8 people were killed and about 29–30 wounded, including five killed and ~30 injured when two glide bombs hit a crowded area and bus stop in Sumy. Overnight into Sunday, Russia fired another wave of missiles and drones that killed four people, three of them in Dnipropetrovsk region. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.12.26; Washington Post, 07.12.26; MT/AFP, 07.12.26)
  • bne IntelliNews, citing new CSIS research, says Russia’s missile and drone campaign is a coercive strategy aimed at logistics, energy and industry hubs, and major cities to erode Ukraine’s ability to fight and govern, not just terrorize civilians. Shahed‑type drones have massively expanded strike range and volume, while an overlapping “front zone” of drones, artillery and glide bombs makes rear areas increasingly lethal. Ukraine’s more precise long‑range drone strikes focus on Russian refineries and military logistics. (bne IntelliNews, 07.12.26) 
• Ukrainian officials say their own strikes on Russia and Russian‑occupied areas killed five people and damaged 21 oil tankers and several other vessels in the Sea of Azov. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.12.26; Washington Post, 07.12.26; MT/AFP, 07.12.26)
• Ukraine has opened a new maritime front against Russian logistics in the Sea of Azov, claiming to have struck 90 Russian vessels since July 6, including 76 ships hit by July 10–11 and another 14 (10 tankers and four ferries) overnight July 11–12, according to the General Staff and Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert “Magyar” Brovdi. (ISW; The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.12.26; Bloomberg, 07.12.26)
• Russia and Ukraine are both losing soldiers without combat, but in different ways, bne IntelliNews reports. Russian courts have convicted over 30,000 deserters, with as many as 70,000 likely to abandon units in 2026, yet high bonuses and ex‑convict recruitment still refill ranks. Ukraine faces a much deeper manpower crisis, with some 311,000 AWOL/desertion cases since 2022, shrinking recruitable pools, forced round‑ups, growing anti‑mobilization protests, and exhausted units struggling to rotate. (bne IntelliNews, 07.12.26)

Monday, July 13, 2026

• On July 13, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Kryva Luka and in Kalenyky. (RM, 07.17.26)
• A Ukrainian regiment reported liberating six settlements—Ternove, Zaporizke, Novoheorhiivka, Vorone, Sichneve and Maliivka—southeast of Oleksandrivka, claiming a 25 km advance and 120 sq km retaken, before later deleting its post without a formal retraction. ISW notes Ukraine has freed about 480 sq km in that sector since January, using intermediate‑range strikes to smash Russian logistics and force Moscow to divert troops from priority fronts. (ISW, 07.13.26)
• Ukrainian drones hit the Moscow region during a massive attack of about 350 UAVs on the capital area with two people hurt when a drone struck an apartment block in Solnechnogorsk; three people were killed and three to five injured overall in Pionersky, where several houses burned. Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov said more than a dozen towns and villages were targeted and that air defenses downed 81 drones over the region, while Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said some 350 drones had been tracked over the wider Moscow area since Sunday night and that 50 were destroyed on approaches to the city. (iStories, 07.13.26; Financial Times, 07.13.26; Meduza, 07.13.26; Bloomberg, 07.13.26; MT/AFP, 07.13.26)
• Ukraine is pioneering large‑scale use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), turning them from simple “supply mules” into indispensable battlefield tools. Brigades now field hundreds of robots that conduct thousands of monthly missions: hauling ammunition, laying mines, evacuating wounded, and even seizing trenches with no Ukrainians directly exposed. A planned 50,000 UGVs will be produced in 2026. Units report that once equipped, robots handle up to 80% of logistics tasks and can rescue casualties or hold positions for weeks, giving Ukraine “dozens of attempts” to complete missions without losing soldiers. (New York Times, 07.13.26) 
• Russian forces struck port infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odesa region overnight, wounding three people and setting buses and homes ablaze, local officials said. Earlier, drones hit the upper floors of a residential building and a hardware store roof in the region. In Zaporizhzhia city, a drone strike wounded six people, including a child, and set apartments on fire; 13 were injured regionwide and 11 apartment blocks damaged. (Meduza, 07.13.26)
• Russia's FSB security Service said July 13 that it foiled a series of attempted large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks against two military air bases deep inside Russia. The state-run news agency TASS cited the FSB as saying in a statement that Ukrainian secret services tried to strike the Shagol and Ukrainka air bases, located in Chelyabinsk and Amur regions, respectively. (MT/AFP, 07.13.26)

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

• On July 14, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Armed Forces pushed back the Russian forces near Maliivka, Sichneve, Novogeorgievka, and Zaporizke. (RM, 07.17.26) 
• Ukrainian drones struck two major Russian refineries early July 16. In Salavat, Bashkortostan—home to Gazprom’s Neftekhim (Neftokhim) Salavat complex, Russia’s last major gasoline producer not yet hit in 2026—regional head Radiy Khabirov reported fires after a drone attack, while Ukrainian officials and OSINT imagery indicate at least two primary distillation units were damaged at a plant that processes about 10 million tons of oil annually some 1,300–1,500 km from Ukraine. In Krasnodar Krai, authorities confirmed yet another fire at the repeatedly struck Afipsky refinery. (MT/AFP, 07.14.26; Washington Post, 07.14.26; ISW, 07.14.26)
• Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces chief Robert “Madyar” Brovdi said his units destroyed or damaged 1,559 distinct Russian targets in the past 24 hours, including 15 vessels, and killed or wounded 311 Russian troops. Since July began, he said, drone units have hit 4,492 Russian soldiers and 21,319 targets ranging from artillery and drones to EW systems, radars, bunkers and shelters, though details on the latest naval hits were not disclosed. (RBC‑Ukraine, 07.14.26)
• Ukraine’s Air Force said it intercepted five Russian ballistic missiles overnight for the first time in nearly two weeks, likely using scarce U.S.-made Patriot interceptors, but other missiles and 25 drones still hit 17 locations in Kyiv. (MT/AFP, 07.14.26; Washington Post, 07.14.26; ISW, 07.14.26)
• Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv overnight July 14, igniting warehouses in the Holosiivskyi district and cars in Darnytskyi, though no casualties were reported, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it struck missile and drone production sites in Kyiv and port infrastructure in Odesa used to store fuel for Ukraine’s military. Odesa officials said drones damaged 11 trucks, repair shops and a fuel truck at one business. (Meduza, 07.14.26)
• Russia’s FSB claims it foiled a planned 35‑drone strike on a “strategic facility” in the Moscow region, alleging Ukraine’s SBU shipped the drones from Slovakia via Belarus disguised as Spanish tiles and stored them in a rented hangar. (Meduza, 07.14.26)

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

• On July 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Dorozhne. (RM, 07.17.26)
• Ukraine says a domestically produced Sargan‑3000 sea drone sank the Russian FSB patrol ship Emerald in the Black Sea port of Gelendzhik, near a compound long alleged to be Vladimir Putin’s private palace. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert “Magyar” Brovdi said Kyiv has hit more than 100 Russia‑linked ships in the Sea of Azov over nine days and is now shifting focus to the Black Sea, claiming recent attacks on 17 oil tankers, two gas carriers and a tug. (Wall Street Journal, 07.15.26; Bloomberg, 07.15.26; New York Times, 07.15.26)
• Satellite imagery shows Russia has removed many S‑300 and S‑400 air‑defense systems from key Arctic and northern sites such as Rogachevo air base and Severodvinsk, likely redeploying them to protect refineries and other targets hit by Ukrainian drones. (RFE/RL, 07.15.26)
• CIA Director John Ratcliffe said Russian conscripts now survive on average only 20–30 minutes after reaching the front because of Ukraine’s AI‑guided attack drones, which he called “specialized, low‑cost killing machines.” U.S. officials estimate Russia is losing about 7,000 soldiers per week, while Zelenskyy says drones destroy over 80% of Russian targets. Ratcliffe’s remarks come as Washington and allies weigh new funding and access to Ukraine’s drone tech. (Bloomberg, 07.15.26)
• Zelenskyy told a Kyiv summit with Southeast European leaders that Russia’s September parliamentary elections will not alter Kremlin war policy, but predicted Russian President Vladimir Putin may launch a new mobilization afterward because he cannot keep boosting high‑paid contract recruitment. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.15.26) 

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• On July 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Ivanopillia. (RM, 07.17.26)
• Security Service of Ukraine and the Navy said they attacked the Russia‑linked tankers Louise 1 and Banda in the Black Sea, both under Ukrainian sanctions and used to carry Russian crude from Black Sea and Baltic ports. According to iStories, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces have hit at least 173 Russian vessels since March — about 135 tankers and cargo ships between July 6–16 alone. Inside Russia, regional authorities reported at least three people killed in overnight Ukrainian attacks: one man in Yaroslavl region after a drone wave that officials say included 19 UAVs, and a 15‑year‑old girl and her grandmother in Bryansk’s Suzemka village. (Bloomberg, 07.16.26; iStories, 07.16.26; MT/AFP, 07.16.26)
• Russian drone attacks have cut Odesa’s storage capacity by a third, killed at least 11 port workers and sailors, and scared off shipowners, sending Chicago wheat futures to a two‑year high. Russia’s own exports via the Sea of Azov are also falling as Ukraine pounds tankers and support ships. (Financial Times, 07.16.26)

Friday, July 17, 2026

• Russian forces launched eight missiles and about 130 drones at Ukraine overnight July 17, killing at least four civilians and wounding roughly 20. In Odesa, a missile hit a park, killing a woman and injuring 10, including several children; in Zaporizhzhia region, two were killed and five wounded, and three more were injured in Kharkiv. Ukraine’s air force said it downed five missiles and 115 drones. (Washington Post, 07.17.26; Washington Post, 07.17.26; Meduza, 07.17.26)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 243 Ukrainian drones and occupation chief Vladimir Saldo said three civilians were killed and seven injured by Ukrainian drones in Russian‑held parts of the Kherson region. (Washington Post, 07.17.26; Washington Post, 07.17.26; Meduza, 07.17.26)
• Ukrainian forces hit Russia’s Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl, about 280 km northeast of Moscow, on July 18, causing a fire detected by NASA satellite heat imagery. The 300,000‑barrel‑a‑day plant, co‑owned by Gazprom Neft, has been struck multiple times this year and supplies fuel to Moscow and surrounding regions. Kyiv’s near‑daily drone attacks on refineries have pushed Russian crude‑processing rates in early July to their lowest level in more than two decades. Separately, a drone strike set fire to the Nordic Zenith tanker at the CPC Black Sea terminal. (Bloomberg, 07.17.26)
• The Economist reports that Ukrainian drones have sharply intensified strikes on Crimea, undermining Russia’s grip on the peninsula by hitting electrical substations, bridges, oil depots, airfields and logistics routes. Using ACLED and its own war tracker, it counts 692 Ukrainian attacks in Crimea since 2022—over half in the past 12 months and a fifth since June. (The Economist, 07.17.26)
• Commander‑in‑Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that Russia is preparing new large‑scale offensive operations along a broad front, seeking a “buffer zone” in northern Ukraine despite heavy losses. (RBC‑Ukraine, 07.17.26)
• Ukraine is producing up to three Flamingo cruise missiles and about 200 long‑range drones a day, Fire Point chief designer Denys Shtilerman told Ukrainian media. He said the truck‑launched Flamingo has a range of roughly 3,000 km—about twice that of modern U.S. Tomahawks (around 1,600 km)—carries a larger warhead, and costs roughly half as much thanks to the use of engines from Soviet aircraft. The basic long‑range FP‑1 strike drone, Shtilerman added, costs the state about $55,000 per unit, comparable in price to Russian equivalents. (Strana.ua, 07.17.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Saturday, July 11, 2026

• U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will sign Britain up to the EU’s €60bn defense loan scheme for Ukraine, committing funding proportional to contracts awarded to U.K. defense firms. Without contributing, British companies would receive only 35% of contract value. The move, to be unveiled at a Paris meeting of the “coalition of the willing,” is part of Starmer’s push to reset U.K.‑EU relations and boost European defense cooperation before leaving office. (Financial Times, 07.11.26)
• Dutch intelligence services report Russia has hacked civilian cameras across European NATO states and Ukraine to spy on weapons shipments to Kyiv, according to The Telegraph. Kremlin‑based hackers allegedly tapped street and doorbell cameras overlooking transport routes to identify military cargo bound for Ukraine. ISW says the operation highlights Moscow’s use of civilian infrastructure for intelligence‑gathering against NATO logistics. (ISW, 07.11.26) 

Sunday, July 12, 2026

• A New York Times report offers a rare look inside Helsing, Europe’s most valuable AI defense start‑up, whose secret German factory builds 26‑pound HX‑2 kamikaze drones costing about €17,500 each. Thousands have been supplied to Ukraine since late 2024, with roughly 70% mission success and only about a week of operator training, aided by AI that keeps them functioning under jamming. Helsing is also developing an unmanned fighter jet, CA‑1 Europa, for deployment by 2029. (New York Times, 07.12.26)

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

• President Emmanuel Macron said France will license Ukraine to produce SCALP cruise missiles, AASM precision glide bombs and Aster interceptor missiles for SAMP/T air‑defense systems, while Kyiv has placed an initial order for 16 Rafale fighters as part of a planned 100‑jet fleet, with the first four to arrive after pilot and maintainer training in 2026 and full Ukrainian Rafale operations expected around 2028–29. France and Italy have agreed that Ukrainian production of AASM, Aster‑30 and SCALP on Ukrainian territory will run at least through 2026, and Paris will also supply Rafale air‑to‑air and air‑to‑ground weapons including MICA and METEOR missiles. The announcements follow a Paris summit where Ukraine and nine European states launched a new ballistic‑missile‑defense coalition, and ISW assesses the Franco‑Italian licensing deals will significantly expand Ukraine’s indigenous defense‑industrial base. (Kyiv Independent, 07.14.26)
  • Roughly 500 troops from 35 members of the “Coalition of the Willing” — including, for the first time, a 25‑strong Ukrainian contingent — marched in Paris’s Bastille Day military parade, seen as a symbol of Europe’s “strategic awakening.” The event was also the last Bastille Day parade for President Emmanuel Macron. Ukrainian media highlighted Kyiv’s participation as a sign of deepening security ties with European partners. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.14.26)

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

• EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed a letter of intent in Kyiv launching an EU–Ukraine Defense Industrial Partnership that aims to co‑produce drones, anti‑drone systems and anti‑ballistic missiles by 2028, saying Ukraine’s fight is an “existential” defense of Europe and promising more air‑defense support before winter as Russia steps up ballistic strikes on energy infrastructure. In parallel, the EU has quietly allowed Ukraine to use part of a €6 billion defense‑loan tranche to buy Chinese drone components, granting a derogation from rules that normally require purchases inside the EU or from approved partners; Brussels argues the waiver is needed because some key parts cannot yet be sourced in sufficient quantity in Europe, even as it continues to label China a “key enabler” of Russia’s war. (Washington Post, 07.15.26; Financial Times, 07.15.26)
• The first of 150 British-made artillery barrels are being provided to Ukraine to strengthen their defense under a £61 million contract. (Gov.uk, 07.15.26)

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• Kyiv claims to have damaged or destroyed 116 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov over nine days; independent analysis by maritime consultancy Ambrey suggests 30–35 ships were hit in just four days last week, while the Times has verified at least 11 vessel strikes so far. Ukrainian long‑range drones fly roughly 250 miles to reach the shallow, Russian‑controlled sea, targeting tankers, cargo ships and auxiliary boats to sever fuel and supply links to Crimea. (New York Times, 07.16.26)
• Russia launched missiles at Kyiv for the second time in a week early July 16, killing two people and wounding six, including a 16‑year‑old, according to city officials. Strikes ignited warehouses and trucks in the Darnytskyi district and another warehouse in Sviatoshynskyi. Moscow’s Defense Ministry claimed it hit military‑industrial sites in Kyiv plus ports and two vessels in Odesa region. The previous missile attack on the capital came on July 14. (Meduza, 07.16.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, July 13, 2026

• Trump will support a bipartisan Russia sanctions package spearheaded by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, a White House official told CNN, clearing the way for passage of a bill Graham spent years advancing. The legislation would authorize Trump to levy steep tariffs on imports from countries that keep buying Russian oil, gas and uranium, aiming to further weaken Moscow’s war economy. (CNN, 07.13.26)
• The European Union failed to endorse a 21st sanctions package against Russia on July 13, putting the bloc at risk of undermining one of its key tools to restrict the Kremlin’s oil revenue. The main points of contention were restrictions on the transport of Russian liquefied natural gas and measures regarding Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International AG. (Bloomberg, 07.13.26)
• In a coordinated new round of sanctions, the EU and U.K. targeted Russian security services, cyber units and censorship infrastructure after documenting a 15‑year campaign of attacks on European governments and critical infrastructure. The Wall Street Journal says measures hit the FSB’s 16th Center (blamed for a failed strike on Poland’s power grid), GRU officers and actors tied to Lumma Stealer malware, while London also sanctioned pro‑Kremlin outlet Rybar for interference in elections in Moldova and Armenia. Separately, the EU Council blacklisted social network VKontakte, the “Max” messenger and its CEO Yelena Bagudina, plus SORM surveillance‑equipment makers VAS Experts, Norsi‑Trans and Citadel, saying they enable internet censorship and mass monitoring; Brussels notes Max was developed under FSB control and can track VPN use, installed apps, contacts and location, and also sanctioned officials at Mordovia’s IK‑10 penal colony for torture of Ukrainian POWs. (Wall Street Journal, 07.13.26; iStories, 07.13.26; Financial Times, 07.13.26) 
• The European Union will not impose sanctions on the head of the Russian Orthodox Church and the chief of Russia’s largest private oil company, after Bulgaria vetoed the proposal. (RFE/RL, 07.13.26)

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

• Russian users reported patchy access to services from Google, Apple, GitHub and Samsung, with monitoring project “Na Svyazi” finding especially frequent problems reaching Google (only 54% of tests successful) and smaller but notable disruptions for Samsung (12.7%) and Apple (6.9%). The watchdog Roskomnadzor denied involvement, but “Na Svyazi” says the pattern resembles past test runs before nationwide blocks via deep‑packet inspection systems. (iStories, 07.14.26)
• Deutsche Bank AG may win a legal battle in a dispute with a corporate client over who has to pick up the tap for losses linked to sanctions on Russia, according to a German court. The Frankfurt Regional Court is inclined to side with Deutsche Bank in an action the lender brought against industrial gases group Linde Plc, Presiding Judge Corinna Distler said at a hearing in the case on July 14. The tribunal’s view is preliminary and may still change after more deliberations, she added. A ruling was scheduled for Oct. 20. Any judgment in the case can be appealed. (Bloomberg, 07.14.26)

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• The late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s revised Russia sanctions bill now has at least 61 Senate co‑sponsors—39 Republicans and 22 Democrats—enough to beat a filibuster, Axios reports. The measure would authorize 100% secondary tariffs on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, targeting countries such as China and India and Russia’s “shadow fleet” of sanctions‑dodging tankers. President Trump has not fully endorsed the bill but says he is “seriously thinking” about signing it as a tribute to Graham. (Axios, 07.16.26) 
• Greece is blocking the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package over a provision banning the transport of Russian LNG to third countries, which Athens says would “ruin” shipping group Dynagas, owned by Greek tycoon George Prokopiou. Dynagas operates 27 gas carriers, including a third of the ice‑class Arc7 fleet serving Russia’s Yamal LNG project. The veto has delayed new measures on Russian banks, crypto networks and arms firms, and forced a week‑long extension of the current $44.10/bbl G7 oil price cap. (Financial Times, 07.16.26)
• VK said it will sell 100% of its RuStore Android app store to Dmitry Pankrushev, CEO of developer Mnogo Prilozheniy, days after the EU sanctioned VK and its Max messenger subsidiary. VK says RuStore will continue operations under the new owner. The divestment follows the removal of multiple VK apps, including Max and VKontakte, from Apple’s App Store and Google Play under EU sanctions. (Meduza, 07.16.26)

Friday, July 17, 2026

• The EU has, for the first time, imposed targeted sanctions on Russia explicitly over mass missile strikes on Kyiv, including attacks on July 1 and 5 that killed 31 people in the capital. The measures hit one individual and five companies in the ABS Electro group, which develop electronic components and control systems that enhance Shahed/Geran drones and other Russian UAVs, as well as earning revenue from energy‑sector automation. (RBC‑Ukraine, 07.17.26)
• Google Play has removed Russia’s Kremlin‑backed Max messenger, VKontakte’s main social‑network app, and Odnoklassniki from its store, days after the EU sanctioned VK and its Max developer. VK said the apps remain available via Russian and some Asian app stores, and existing installations continue to function. VKontakte is also shifting from the vk.com to vk.ru domain, telling users the change will make the service “faster and more reliable.” (Meduza, 07.17.26)
• A Moscow appeals court has upheld a May ruling ordering Belgian securities depository Euroclear to pay 18.17 trillion rubles (about €190 billion) to Russia’s central bank over “unlawful actions” related to frozen Russian assets. Euroclear, which holds the largest share of the roughly €260 billion in Russian state assets blocked under EU sanctions, calls the lawsuit unfounded and says the funds remain frozen under international law; it plans further appeals. (Meduza, 07.17.26) 
• The head of Roman Abramovich’s £2.5bn Foundation for the Victims of Conflict says the U.K. government is blocking both his salary and the charity’s work by insisting all proceeds from the Chelsea FC sale go only to Ukraine. Director Mike Penrose, a former Unicef U.K. chief, told the FT the Treasury has refused to renew a sanctions license that would let him be paid (he is owed over £10,000). (Financial Times, 07.17.26) 

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

• At a Paris meeting, the Coalition of the Willing reaffirmed that any Ukraine peace deal must include binding security guarantees for Kyiv and full Ukrainian and European participation in talks, rejecting a “great‑power” deal over their heads. The group called for an immediate ceasefire and direct Russia‑Ukraine negotiations with U.S. and European involvement, backing President Donald Trump’s July 7 signal at the Ankara NATO summit that Washington supports long‑term guarantees for Ukraine. (ISW, 07.14.26)
• The Kremlin continues to reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine and to sideline Europe from peace talks, ISW reports. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov again insisted any deal must meet Russia’s maximalist demands—including Ukrainian withdrawal from all occupied oblasts and renouncing NATO—and falsely claimed a secret U.S.-Russia agreement was reached at the 2025 Alaska summit, something Washington denies. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow opposes European participation in negotiations and will not accept guarantees for Ukraine that do not include Russia, signaling it seeks Ukrainian capitulation rather than a compromise settlement. (ISW, 07.14.26)

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

• The European Union agreed to preserve a $44.10 price cap on Russian oil until July 23, according to an EU diplomat, as officials struggle to reach a broader sanctions deal. The price cap was set to rise in line with elevated global rates after July 15, which would have weakened a key tool allies use to suppress Moscow’s oil revenues. The one-week extension gives officials more time to reach an agreement on its 21st Russia sanctions package, which includes a more-permanent freeze on the oil price cap. (Bloomberg, 07.15.26)

Friday, July 17, 2026

• Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow would not reject “real proposals” from the United States on resolving the war in Ukraine, while insisting Russia’s goals and tasks remain unchanged. Speaking on state TV, she accused Ukraine and Western countries of jointly committing “crimes” with attacks on Russian territory and criticized European discussions of security guarantees for Kyiv that, she said, offer none for Russia. (Kommersant, 07.17.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Friday, July 10, 2026

• Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Poland has “credible information” that Russia is planning provocations against unspecified NATO states, confirming earlier U.S. warnings. Speaking alongside French Foreign Minister Jean‑Noël Barrot, he framed the statement as a public deterrent; Barrot said France has also seen increased Russian provocations. ISW notes such threats fit Moscow’s “Phase Zero” playbook of false-flag and gray‑zone actions to set conditions for future moves against NATO. (ISW, 07.10.26)

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned Russia is preparing to expand its aggression beyond Ukraine, explicitly naming the Baltic states and Moldova as under threat and saying Germany already faces Russian sabotage, espionage and cyberattacks. “We are not living in a state of war, but we are no longer living in peace,” he said, arguing Berlin must rapidly restore its defense capabilities while NATO deterrence remains strong. (RBC‑Ukraine, 07.15.26)
• Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said intelligence indicates Russia is preparing “targeted kinetic operations” against critical energy or transport infrastructure in the Baltic states or Poland, not a large‑scale attack but a provocation likely meant to test NATO unity. His warning follows similar alerts from Polish and Latvian officials amid recent Russian-linked sabotage, arson and cyberattacks, including an FSB‑attributed attempt on Poland’s power grid. (Financial Times, 07.15.26)
• Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda and Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs warned that intelligence points to possible limited Russian “kinetic” or hybrid attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltics or Poland, intended to test NATO’s Article 5 response. Poland has issued similar alerts, and all four countries have tightened protection of energy and transport assets amid Russian sabotage, espionage and cyberattacks since 2022. Moscow dismissed the warnings as pretexts for NATO militarization. (Washington Post, 07.15.26)

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• Polish authorities are warning that Russia is conducting surveillance of NATO air defense integration exercises near the Baltic Sea, likely as part of Russia’s Phase Zero efforts. Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz warned on July 15 about the Russian surveillance of NATO’s air defense integration and reported that Poland scrambled fighter aircraft and intercepted two Russian Su-30SM2 fighters operating from Kaliningrad Oblast and that Swedish aircraft escorted the Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea. (ISW, 07.16.26)
• Polish prosecutors charged an 18‑year‑old Ukrainian man with 47 offenses, alleging he was paid by Russian intelligence to desecrate WWII memorials to Polish victims of Ukrainian nationalist massacres and to prepare a drone stunt over President Karol Nawrocki’s car during a 2025 military parade. Authorities say the sabotage campaign sought to inflame Polish‑Ukrainian tensions as part of Russia’s broader hybrid war. (Washington Post, 07.16.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• A Wall Street Journal analysis says China has become the clear senior partner in its relationship with Russia, keeping Moscow’s war economy afloat while tilting the terms sharply in Beijing’s favor. China now accounts for nearly 40% of Russia’s total trade and about a third of its export revenue, while Russia makes up less than 4% of China’s trade, allowing Beijing to buy discounted Russian oil, flood the market with cheaper Chinese goods and quietly expand influence in Central Asia and among Russia’s elite. Beijing is also pushing to make the yuan the main currency of a new SCO development bank for Central Asia, a move Russia resisted for a decade but now appears ready to accept in hopes of easing sanctions pressure, even as China carefully manages frictions over North Korea to avoid an overt “axis” with Moscow and Pyongyang.China is quietly building relationships inside Russia that extend well beyond Putin — cultivating ties with officials and elites who will shape the country after he is gone, according to WSJ. (Wall Street Journal, 07.13.26) 
• Trade between Russia and China rose 25.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, reaching $134.2 billion, according to official data cited by Russia’s trade mission in China on July 14. Russian exports to China grew 23.3% to $73.6 billion between January and June. Russian imports from China, meanwhile, rose 28.4% to $60.6 billion, giving Russia a trade surplus with its largest trading partner. The rebound marks a reversal from 2025, when bilateral trade fell for the first time in five years. (MT/AFP, 07.14.26)

Missile defense:

• Ukraine and nine European countries — Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the U.K. — formed a coalition to build a shared ballistic‑missile defense for Europe, drawing on Kyiv’s wartime experience. Announced in Paris, the plan seeks an integrated architecture against Russia’s growing missile threat and remains open to other states. Ukraine also claims to have hit 105 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov since July 6. (Washington Post, 07.13.26)
  • French President Emmanuel Macron told more than 25 allied leaders in Paris that Europe is prepared to defend itself “with blood, if necessary,” as they discussed a post‑cease‑fire “coalition of the willing” to stabilize Ukraine and a new Anti‑Ballistic Coalition to strengthen European missile defense. Macron highlighted France’s defense budget jump from €32 billion in 2017 to €57 billion in 2026, set to double by the time he leaves office next May. (New York Times, 07.13.26) 
  • Western partners are accelerating efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s anti‑ballistic air defenses. Ten states, including France, Germany, Italy, the U.K. and Ukraine, formed an Integrated Anti‑Ballistic Missile Coalition in Paris to ramp up interceptor production. Zelenskyy said he hopes Ukraine’s FREYJA interceptor will be operational within 12 months and announced Kyiv will receive two SAMP/T systems in 2026 and later the new SAMP/T NG. Ukraine shot down five of eight Russian ballistic missiles on July 13–14, after several strike packages with zero interceptions, as Europe and the U.S. move to replenish exhausted Patriot stocks and license Ukrainian production. (ISW, 07.14.26)
• Ukraine’s defense firm Fire Point is developing the FP‑7.x interceptor and FREYJA anti‑ballistic system as a cheaper, partly homegrown alternative to U.S. Patriots, aiming eventually to form a pan‑European missile shield. Experts warn ballistic interception is “the Champions League” of missile tech and far harder than building attack drones or cruise missiles. Fire Point, which grew from 18 staff in 2023 to 7,000 by mid‑2026, wants interceptors under $1 million each but will likely field performance closer to older PAC‑2 Patriots than PAC‑3. (New York Times, 07.14.26)

Nuclear arms:

• Germany and France have begun implementing their new nuclear‑deterrence partnership with a first joint air‑force exercise, German media report. Two French Rafale jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons and two German Eurofighters conducted aerial refueling with a French tanker ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s visit. A further drill at Nörvenich air base will see mixed maintenance crews work on each other’s aircraft. The Franco‑German Defense Council is expected July 17 to approve German participation in a French nuclear exercise this autumn, complementing NATO’s U.S.‑led nuclear posture. (Die Zeit, 07.16.26)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Russia hopes by mid-July to have a commercial logistics hub up and running in one of two berths at the naval base it leases in the Syrian port of Tartus, while keeping a military presence at the other, Syrian officials told Reuters. The hub will handle a wide range of Russian goods including wheat and grains, and target initial cargo volumes of around 250,000 metric tons per month, one of the officials said. The project, the officials said, is central to Russian efforts to maintain and expand its influence in Syria through economic channels. (MT/AFP, 07.12.26)

Cyber security/AI: 

• France will summon Russia’s ambassador in the coming days regarding a vast cyberattack and spying campaign in several European countries, Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said. Authorities in Paris are preparing to sanction nine individuals and four entities responsible for the cyber campaign that Barrot said were orchestrated by Russia’s main security services, known as the FSB. The attacks targeted ministries, businesses and infrastructure. “We are going to publicly expose a broad Russian campaign of cyberattacks, sabotage and espionage carried out across about a dozen European countries,” Barrot said July 13 on BFMTV. “We will describe how it operates and identify those responsible.” (Bloomberg, 07.13.26)
• In September 2024, Dutch cybersecurity experts discovered that someone had burrowed into the computer systems of the National Police Force and accessed the email account of a police employee. The intruder, or group, had used a stolen cookie -- a piece of data temporarily stored on a user's device by web browsers -- to access the person’s electronic address book. That meant the intruder had access to all the contacts in the person’s email; including potentially all 64,000 employees of the police force, not to mention possibly names of sources or informants used by the police. For the first time, “the Netherlands had fallen victim to deliberate cyber sabotage by a Russian-backed group,” the country’s military intelligence agency concluded in a report. (RFE/RL, 07.17.26)
• U.S. prosecutors say Russian IT specialist Denis Obrezko, a former FSB employee and deputy director of Samara firm Yutek‑NN, has been extradited from Thailand to Boston and charged with hacking nearly a dozen U.S. companies and government agencies. Dutch investigators link the same group, dubbed “Laundry Bear” or “Void Blizzard,” to a 2024 breach of the Netherlands’ national police. Court affidavits allege Yutek conducted cyber‑espionage “at the behest of the Russian government,” targeting NATO‑aligned bodies and Ukraine supporters. Investigators traced Obrezko via reused email, phone and crypto accounts; he faces up to 10 years in prison and has pleaded not guilty. (RFE/RL, 07.17.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russian gasoline prices jumped another 2.3% and diesel 3.2% in the week of July 7–13, bringing pump prices up 16.4% since January, Rosstat data show, as Ukrainian drone strikes have cut refinery gasoline output to about 65% of seasonal demand. KSE’s June Russia Chartbook notes that Russia’s temporary Iran‑war oil windfall is fading: export earnings doubled in March–May but were partly swallowed by soaring fuel subsidies and a 6 trillion‑ruble budget deficit, while refinery damage forces more crude into seaborne exports reliant on Western shipping. (KSE Russia Chartbook, June 2026) 

Friday, July 10, 2026

• Russia’s oil refineries are failing to meet surging summer fuel demand as Ukrainian long-range strikes degrade capacity. Gasoline output has fallen to about 65% of average seasonal consumption, forcing Moscow to draw on federal stockpiles and import fuel from Belarus. Regional authorities are rationing sales, urging remote work and limiting travel, while Kazakhstan cracks down on fuel smuggling as Russian shortages and price spikes intensify. (ISW, 07.10.26)

Saturday, July 11, 2026

• Consumer gasoline prices in Russia jumped 6.88% month‑on‑month in June and 19.9% year‑on‑year, with AI‑92 up 7.3%, AI‑95 6.7%, AI‑98 3.1%, and diesel 7.1%, Rosstat data show. Annual inflation hit 6.02%, its highest since January. Officials are weighing measures to stabilize the fuel market as refinery output has fallen to about 65% of seasonal demand after Ukrainian drone strikes, causing shortages and queues at gas stations. (Meduza, 07.11.26)
  • Russian consumer gasoline prices jumped 6.88% in June alone and 19.9% year‑on‑year, with AI‑92 up 7.3%, AI‑95 6.7%, AI‑98 3.1% and diesel 7.1%, Rosstat data show. ISW links the spike to Ukraine’s long‑range strikes on refineries and fuel logistics, which have driven shortages in at least 78 of Russia’s 83 regions plus occupied Ukraine. Moscow is struggling to plug air‑defense gaps as Kyiv signals it will keep intensifying these attacks. (ISW, 07.11.26)

Monday, July 13, 2026

• Russian refinery runs have fallen to about 3.91 million barrels a day so far this month, the lowest level since March 2005 and roughly 1.4 million barrels a day below last year’s average, after roughly 50 Ukrainian attacks hit at least 24 of 34 major refineries. Moscow has banned most diesel exports through July and tightened gasoline and jet-fuel shipments, feeding domestic shortages and driving global diesel prices higher. (Bloomberg, 07.13.26)
• EU states imported a record 9.89mn tons of LNG from Russia’s Yamal project in the first half of 2026, up 18% year‑on‑year and worth as much as €6bn, despite an upcoming EU ban on Russian gas imports. France, Belgium and Spain bought almost all the Arctic plant’s output, keeping its specialized ice‑class fleet and European repair links viable even as Asia‑bound volumes slumped 74%. (Financial Times, 07.13.26)
• Russia’s crude output declined to the lowest in at least two and a half years in June as Ukraine attacked the nation’s oil infrastructure on an almost daily basis. Producers pumped an average of 8.928 million barrels a day of crude, according to a monthly report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The data underscore the intense pressure Russia’s oil industry is under, with Moscow forced to sell large amounts of the dwindling output abroad as its own refineries scale back processing due to Ukrainian drone strikes. (Bloomberg, 07.13.26)

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

• A bipartisan group of senators introduced a revised Russia sanctions bill to honor the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, authorizing 100% tariffs on the five largest importers of Russian oil and gas, likely including China and India. The measure reflects a compromise Graham negotiated with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and now has 26 co‑sponsors split evenly by party. Backers say it would “ratchet up pressure” on Vladimir Putin and buyers funding his war. (Axios, 07.15.26)
• Details of the “Lindsey Graham Russia‑Tariffs Bill” obtained by the Wall Street Journal show it would give President Trump authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on top buyers of Russian energy—chiefly China and India—and sanction Russia’s defense, energy and financial sectors plus its shadow‑fleet tankers. Supporters call it a historic use of tariffs as a geopolitical weapon; critics warn Trump could repurpose the powers for broader trade wars. (Wall Street Journal, 07.14.26) 
• A Wall Street Journal deep dive details the “Lindsey Graham Russia‑Tariffs Bill,” which would let President Trump impose tariffs of up to 100% on the top five importers of Russian oil and gas, notably China and India, plus sanctions on Russian defense, energy, finance and shadow‑fleet shipping. The compromise measure, backed by the White House, would be the first time Congress explicitly arms tariffs for geopolitical use. (Wall Street Journal, 07.15.26)
• Ukraine’s refinery attacks are forcing Russia to push more crude onto the water than it can easily sell or process. Bloomberg data cited by ISW show about 135 million barrels of Russian oil at sea by July 12, including 1.9 million b/d on tankers without declared destinations, with clusters off Egypt’s Mersa El‑Hamra and near Singapore’s Riau Islands. Four‑week seaborne exports remain around 4.2 million b/d, but profit margins are unclear as refining capacity shrinks. (ISW, 07.15.26)

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• Ukraine’s refinery strikes are forcing Russia to import gasoline from India as roughly 40% of its refining capacity may be offline until at least mid‑September, according to Reuters reporting cited by ISW. (ISW, 07.16.26)
• Gazprom shares fell 5% on July 16 to 83.98 rubles, an all‑time low on the Moscow Exchange, briefly breaking their previous October 2008 record. The slump followed a Wall Street Journal report that talks with China over the Power of Siberia‑2 pipeline have stalled, with Beijing insisting on paying only Russia’s low domestic gas price, effectively demanding a subsidy. (Meduza, 07.16.26)

Friday, July 17, 2026

• Nationwide fuel shortages are beginning to put pressure on Russia’s agricultural sector, despite directives from President Vladimir Putin to guarantee farmers enough supplies for the harvest and planting seasons, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said July 17. “There are rough patches on the ground, and we’ll work through them with each specific region and business as needed,” Lut said at a farming forum in Siberia. (MT/AFP, 07.17.26)
• Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries have helped push global diesel prices above $5 a gallon in the U.S., Axios reports. Since August 2025, at least 100 refinery hits—10 in June alone—have forced Russia to ban most diesel exports, triggering fuel queues, rationing and station outages at home. JPMorgan says agriculture, transport, utilities and small businesses are now being disrupted. Moscow is weighing domestic rationing and importing fuel from India to ease shortages. (Axios, 07.17.26)
• Greece warned that proposed EU sanctions banning the transshipment of Russian LNG to third countries could hand global market share to non‑EU rivals, as Athens and Austria held up approval of the bloc’s 21st sanctions package. Greek officials, whose shipowners dominate Europe’s LNG carrier fleet, said sanctions must not “surrender entire sectors of economic activity” to competitors like Japan, China or the U.S., even as EU states debate tighter curbs on Russian gas. (Reuters, 07.17.26)
• The Oryol region has become the first in Russia to lift its “odd‑even” fuel‑rationing system, introduced on July 4 to curb panic buying during the gasoline crisis caused by Ukrainian refinery strikes. Governor Andrei Klychkov said queues have disappeared, but per‑fill limits remain: up to 30 liters in cities and 50 liters on highways. At least eight regions had adopted similar license‑plate rationing schemes as output fell and prices surged. (Meduza, 07.17.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The Kremlin said July 17 that it “firmly” rejects U.S. intelligence findings of Russia’s alleged efforts to interfere in American elections as Trump pushed for strict voting laws amid unsubstantiated claims of vulnerabilities in the electoral system. In a 25-minute speech at the White House on July 16, Trump sought to cast doubt on the integrity of the U.S. electoral process by saying it was vulnerable to manipulation and interference from foreign powers like China, Iran and Russia. In response to the allegations, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “Russia has never interfered in the domestic affairs of other countries.” “And we expect that no one will attempt to interfere in ours,” Peskov said during a daily briefing on July 17. (MT/AFP, 07.17.26)
• The U.S. Board of Immigration Appeals has issued a precedent-setting ruling that makes it harder for Russian draft evaders to obtain asylum. In a case involving a man who left Russia after the 2022 mobilization, the BIA overturned an earlier grant of asylum, finding that military conscription alone—even into a force accused of war crimes—is not persecution. Russian applicants must now show individualized risk tied to politics, social group, or other protected grounds. (Mediazona, 07.12.26) 
• NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman visited Russia’s Baikonur launch site in Kazakhstan to attend the liftoff of a mixed U.S.-Russian crew to the International Space Station, his agency’s first chief-level trip there in eight years. NASA astronaut Anil Menon and cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anna Kikina launched on Soyuz MS‑29 for an eight‑month mission, underscoring continued ISS cooperation despite deep tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Washington Post, 07.14.26)
• Russia and the United States have agreed to extend joint operations of the International Space Station (ISS) through 2030, Roscosmos chief Dmitry Bakanov announced July 14 evening. While NASA had previously assessed that the ISS could safely function through 2030, Bakanov had said as recently as last August that he and U.S. officials had agreed to run the station only until 2028 before beginning de-orbiting procedures. (MT/AFP, 07.15.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Friday, July 10, 2026

• Russia’s state pollster VTsIOM reports Putin’s approval rating fell to 66% and trust to 72.3% in early July, continuing a sharp decline since March and a notable drop at the end of June. Analysts link growing public discontent to worsening gasoline shortages and inflation. The fact that a state-controlled polling center is acknowledging the slide underscores Kremlin concern over domestic reactions to the deepening economic strain. (ISW, 07.10.26)

Monday, July 13, 2026

• Tensions between the authorities and civil society are rising in Russia’s North Caucasus republic of Kabardino-Balkaria after the regional parliament agreed last month to consider amendments to the republic’s constitution. Proposed by Kremlin-appointed regional prosecutor Nikolai Khabarov, the amendments would remove guarantees of Kabardino-Balkaria’s “statehood” and “territorial integrity and inviolability” from the republic’s supreme legal document. (MT/AFP, 07.13.26)

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

• Putin again publicly signaled that Russia’s Central Bank should lower its key interest rate, telling the Yakutia governor that a reduction is an “inevitable” and “natural” process given macroeconomic stability. The bank recently cut the rate only slightly, from 14.5% to 14.25%, and senior officials, including Elvira Nabiullina, have warned against rapid easing, citing high inflation and the distorting role of large subsidized state loans. (iStories, 07.14.26)

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• Several of Russia’s richest people including some close to Putin have moved billions of dollars abroad in the past year after growing concerned about the country’s economy and the government budget. High-profile asset seizures have intensified fears among members of the Russian elite that the state could confiscate their wealth or that they may lose their fortunes, according to six wealthy Russians and other people familiar with the thinking of several of the country’s billionaires. (Bloomberg, 07.16.26)
• Russian opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin, who tried to run for president and was recently labeled a “foreign agent,” says he has received a notification via the Gosuslugi portal banning him from leaving Russia. He called the travel restriction illegal and plans to appeal. Nadezhdin was detained on July 13 for allegedly displaying extremist symbols, a charge that would bar him from collecting signatures to run in this autumn’s Duma elections. (iStories, 07.16.26)
• Russia’s billionaire elite are quietly shifting tens of billions of dollars abroad as fears grow over asset seizures, banking fragility and an unsustainable war budget. Since 2024, prosecutors have reclaimed more than 4 trillion rubles (about $51.5 billion) in assets from tycoons, and a pro‑Kremlin think tank has warned of looming bank stress. Bloomberg reports that some of Russia’s richest people, including figures close to Vladimir Putin, are moving portfolios into cryptocurrency, gold, foreign property (especially Dubai and Turkey), and private funds in the Gulf and Africa, often via the A7A5 stablecoin run by Ilan Shor’s A7, which handled about 7.5 trillion rubles (~$96 billion) in transactions in the first half of 2025. (ISW, 07.16.26; Bloomberg, 07.16.26) 

Friday, July 17, 2026

• Kommersant reports that Russia’s stock market fell to its lowest level since September 2022, with the MOEX index down 4.24% to 2,022.27 points. Shares of VK plunged 12.7% and gold miner Polyus 10.6%, while Sovcomflot and Surgutneftegaz dropped 8.3% and 11.1% respectively after going ex‑dividend. Analysts cite heightened geopolitical tensions and investor uncertainty over the Central Bank of Russia’s next moves on the key interest rate. (Kommersant, 07.17.26)
• bone IntelliNews reports that Russia’s international reserves rose slightly to $722.4bn in the week ending July 10, up $700mn (0.1%) from $721.7bn the previous week, according to the Central Bank of Russia. The stockpile remains well below this year’s peak: weekly reserves hit $826.8bn on January 30, while the monthly series registered $833.6bn at end‑January. The total includes foreign currency, monetary gold, IMF special drawing rights and Russia’s IMF position; its dollar value is highly sensitive to gold prices and exchange‑rate moves. (bne IntelliNews, 07.17.26)
• Russian women have called on the authorities to adopt a domestic violence law as lawmakers debate whether such legislation would discourage marriage amid the Kremlin's push to promote what it calls "traditional values." Russia decriminalized first-time domestic violence offenses causing “minor harm” in 2017. (MT/AFP, 07.17.26)
• A Moscow region judge has fined anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin 1,000 rubles ($12.76) after finding him guilty of displaying “extremist” symbols, the exiled Mediazona outlet reported July 17. The conviction means Nadezhdin is now banned from collecting signatures to appear on the ballot for State Duma elections this September. (MT/AFP, 07.17.26)
• Russian blogger and former pro‑Kremlin informant Ilya Remeslo, known for helping trigger fraud cases against Alexei Navalny, has been detained on charges of spreading “fakes” about the Russian army, TASS reported. Remeslo recently broke with Vladimir Putin, publicly blaming him for starting the war, wrecking the economy and imposing censorship; he was briefly confined to a psychiatric hospital in March after his criticism. He is being transferred from St. Petersburg to Moscow, where a court will decide on pretrial measures. (Meduza, 07.17.26) 
• bne IntelliNews reports that a widening wave of arrests around Arkady and Boris Rotenberg is raising questions about the future of two of Vladimir Putin’s most powerful “stoligarchs.” Investigators have detained multiple figures tied to their construction, aviation, transport and banking interests, including ex‑Rosaviatsia head Aleksandr Neradko and former aviation official Konstantin Makhov over alleged RUB800mn embezzlement on Domodedovo airport’s third runway. (bne IntelliNews, 07.17.26)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian Defense Ministry contract‑recruitment programs are failing to keep pace with mounting losses, ISW says, citing Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service. Moscow has signed roughly 195,000 contract soldiers so far in 2026—less than half its 409,000‑per‑year target—as daily recruitment has slipped to about 1,090 men. Meanwhile, Ukrainian commander‑in‑chief Oleksandr Syrskyi estimates Russian forces now suffer over 400 casualties for every square kilometer gained in Donetsk, making casualties exceed recruitment since March and raising pressure for a new mobilization. (ISW, 07.14.26)
• A leaked “Plan for Selecting Candidates for Contract Service in 2026” from Buryatia’s Muisky district shows Russian regional officials assigning quotas of workers that local companies must send to fight in Ukraine, TV Rain reports. Firms can instead pay about 100,000 rubles per person to a recruiter to meet their obligation; a Siberian businessman says this “buyout” fee rose to 450,000 rubles in 2025. Even understaffed hospitals face quotas. (Meduza, 07.13.26)
• Russia resumed sending crewed missions to the International Space Station with a team that includes a NASA astronaut, highlighting how space remains one of the few spheres where Russia and the U.S. continue to cooperate. A Soyuz rocket took off from Kazakhstan’s Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anna Kikina and astronaut Anil Menon on July 14 at 10:47 a.m. New York time and arrived at the ISS about three hours later, according to a NASA statement. Russia’s cooperation with the U.S. on the ISS remains a rare area where the two countries work together despite tensions over the invasion of Ukraine. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, making the first visit to Baikonur of a U.S. space chief in eight years, and Dmitry Bakanov, the head of Russian space agency Roscosmos, attended the launch. (Bloomberg, 07.14.26)
• A Meduza explainer examines U.S. claims that Russia is developing a space‑based nuclear weapon and asks how such a device could be detected. MIT physicist Areg Danagoulian proposes using a small “inspector” satellite that measures neutron flux created when natural high‑energy protons in space strike fissile material inside a suspect spacecraft. His concept relies on passive detection of these secondary neutrons, avoiding provocative active probing but still requiring close approach for hours or days. (Meduza, 07.16.26)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• An appellate court judge in Moscow on July 15 rejected a bid by former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov to be sent to fight in eastern Ukraine after he was jailed last year for corruption. Ivanov, who was sentenced to 13 years in prison on embezzlement and money laundering charges, had sought to sign a military contract — a common path for Russian convicts to secure an early release in exchange for combat duty.  (MT/AFP, 07.15.26) 

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

Sunday, July 12, 2026

• A Wall Street Journal investigation says remnants of Russia’s Wagner group, now led locally by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s son Pavel, have turned the Central African Republic into a tramadol‑based “opioid empire,” funding an entrenched mercenary fiefdom along the Oubangui River. Up to 500 Wagner fighters control high‑dose tramadol flows from Congo, while illicit gold exports are estimated at $180m a year. Profits finance arms and militias that dominate Bangui’s politics and fuel rising violence. (Wall Street Journal, 07.11.26) 
• A New York Times investigation says Russia has turned Japan into a key hub for wartime spying and sanctions‑busting, with a secret GRU “20th Directorate” unit in Tokyo using Aeroflot cover and freight partners to source high‑tech components for missiles and drones. Ukrainian officials estimate about 90% of Russian missiles and drones contain Japanese parts. Weak espionage laws and indirect re‑exports via third countries have let the network operate largely unhindered. (New York Times, 07.12.26) 
  • Japan has said that it recognizes the need to counter foreign intelligence better after the New York Times reported that Russia had turned the country into a "den of spies" and a key source of weapons components. (MT/AFP, 07.14.26)

Monday, July 13, 2026

• Russia's Foreign Ministry said on July 13 it had summoned Germany's ambassador in Moscow and accused Berlin of supporting Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Russia through military cooperation and arms supplies to Kyiv. (MT/AFP, 07.13.26)

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

• Putin granted Russian citizenship to Belgian auto designer Pierre Leclerc, famed for work on BMW’s X5 and X6 SUVs and later design leadership roles at Great Wall (Haval), Kia and Citroën, according to a new Kremlin decree. Leclerc still heads design at Citroën; Russian media did not explain why he sought a Russian passport. (Meduza, 07.14.26)

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar said an investigation is underway into former foreign minister Peter Szijjarto’s ties to Russia. (Bloomberg, 07.16.26)

Friday, July 17, 2026

• The forces of the Russian Africa Corps started employing Shahed/Geran/Garpiya-type long-range OWA-UAVs for strikes against JNIM/Azawad militants in the African country of Mali. (Status-6 X account, 07.17.26)

Ukraine:

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• Ukraine’s parliament on July 16 approved a sweeping reshuffle of the Cabinet of Ministers, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy named an interim defense chief amid mounting protests over Mykhailo Fedorov’s removal. MPs confirmed former Naftogaz CEO Serhiy Koretsky as prime minister, reappointed Denys Shmyhal as first deputy premier and energy minister and Serhiy Marchenko as finance minister. They also named National Police chief Gen. Ivan Vyhivskyi interior minister; McKinsey partner Oleksandr Kravchenko economy minister; acting minister Oksana Ferchuk digital transformation minister; Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim veterans affairs minister; ex‑Rada committee deputy chair Vitaliy Bezgin minister for communities; and Kyiv regional head Mykola Kalashnyk minister for reconstruction, infrastructure and transport. Zelenskyy separately appointed former acting SBU head Yevhen Khmara as interim defense minister, a move not yet voted on by the Rada. Ukrainska Pravda reports that First Deputy SBU chief Oleksandr Poklad will become acting head of Ukraine’s Security Service after Yevhen Khmara shifts to serve as acting defense minister instead of Mykhailo Fedorov. (ISW, 07.16.26; New York Time, 07.16.26; Ukrainska Pravda, 07.17.26) For NYT’s video on “Protests Breakout Across Ukraine in Support of Ousted Defense Minister,” click here. Also, see this endnote for links to commentaries on Fedorov’s ouster.⁴
• After lawmakers suggested Zelenskyy’s party could not garner enough votes for his preferred replacement of Fedorov — Ihor Klymenko, previously interior minister — the president was forced into a concession, instead putting forward the acting head of Ukraine’s SBU security service, Yevhenii Khmara. Zelenskyy said Khmara’s main priority will be overseeing Ukraine’s long‑range strike operations. (Financial Times, 07.16.26, RBC‑Ukraine, 07.17.26)
  • Upon his ouster Fedorov said in a press conference on July 16 that he had rejected an offer to stay on as a presidential adviser. Fedorov also said that he encountered resistance in introducing reforms to combat corruption in military procurement, though he did not say whether chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Syrskyi was allegedly involved in the schemes or tried to block these anti-graft initiatives. “There is, in fact, a great deal of corruption,” Fedorov said. Fedorov angered established defense contractors with programs threatening their businesses, such as one that allowed soldiers to buy their own weapons on the website Brave1 Market, nicknamed the “Amazon of Weapons.” Fedorov accused Syrskyi, a flint-hard, old-school general who gained the nickname “the Butcher” for high losses among infantry soldiers, of strategic shortsightedness. (New York Times,  07.17.26; Washington Post, 07.16.26, New York Times, 07.16.26; Financial Times, 07.16.26; Wall Street Journal,  07.17.26, Financial Times, 07.16.26)
  • On his conflict with Syrskyi, Fedorov insisted in a commentary for NV.ua, “I didn’t set conditions: either me or Syrskyi,” saying he accepted Zelenskyy’s decision to keep him but that “all initiatives we propose started being blocked” and that Syrskyi was “ready to walk personally to meetings, weave intrigues” instead of discussing problems openly. Fedorov argues that “the war has completely changed” and Ukraine must fight so “we will lose drones, not people,” but “in this construction [with Syrskyi] I personally don’t know how to win the war.” (NV.ua, 07.17.26)
• Reactions to the ouster of Fedorov:
  • Fedorov’s dismissal, has become the focal point of the struggle: thousands of young engineers, lobbyists and civil‑society activists protested in Kyiv with signs like “This reshuffle is a step toward defeat,” seeing him as the symbol of “moving forward” through innovation and asymmetric warfare. Thousands of demonstrators gathered in a public square outside the president’s office. They carried signs demanding that Fedorov remain in office, chanting his name along with cries of “We’re not suckers!” and “Shame!” (Financial Times, 07.16.26; New York Times, 07.17.26)
  • Defense industry officials, senior Ukrainian officials, MPs from Zelenskyy’s party and others familiar with the matter have also said — some publicly — that Fedorov had been a barrier to interests seeking to profit from Ukraine’s vast wartime defense budget. (Financial Times, 07.16.26) 
  • Fedorov’s dismissal was followed by resignations. Col. Pavlo Yelizarov, deputy commander of Ukraine’s Air Forces and a key architect of interceptor‑drone and “small air‑defense” tactics, announced he was resigning in protest, calling the move “a great evil for the country’s defense capability” and warning that abandoning Fedorov’s reforms would mean heavier damage from Russian strikes. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi, commander of joint forces, issued a rare statement backing Fedorov, writing that “silence does not protect the army, it only allows mistakes to accumulate.” Two high‑profile Defense Ministry advisers — Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov and activist‑fundraiser Serhiy Sternenko — also said they were quitting their posts. An MP from Zelenskyy’s party also quit. (New York Times,  07.17.26; New York Time, 07.16.26; RFE/RL, 07.16.26; Financial Times, 07.16.26)
  • Iryna Herashchenko, a member of parliament from the European Solidarity party: “What a nightmare it is to change the minister of defense of a warring country every six months. Tyranny, political jealousy, intolerance of alternate opinions, this is costing the country dearly." (RFE/RL, 07.16.26)
  • Vyacheslav Bilkovskiy, a former military officer who now serves in the administration for the southern Kherson region, wrote: "Of all the defense ministers we've had since the start of the full-scale invasion, he's the best. Yes, he's not perfect, but the processes he's started are very positive for the military... ‘Invisible barriers’ for drone manufacturers disappeared almost immediately, and certification issues accelerated many times over. This wasn't even close to happening under [Rustem] Umerov.” (RFE/RL, 07.16.26)
  • Journalist Konstantin Skorkin writes that by early summer it had become clear Zelenskyy was dissatisfied with Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov for an additional reason: the presidential office suspected him of mounting political ambitions. In June 2025, pollsters recorded public trust in Fedorov at 50%, compared with 61% for Zelenskyy and 52% for Commander‑in‑Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Skorkin notes that mobilization policy became another major point of friction between the president and the defense minister. (Meduza, 07.17.26)
  • Journalist Mansur Mirovalev: “He was acclaimed for his reforms while serving as Ukraine’s minister of digital transformation, and his new duties included logistics, budgets, reforms, anticorruption measures and deals to secure multibillion-dollar Western aid or loans.” (AlJazeera, 07.17.26)
  • FT editors: “Fedorov, moreover, has probably been the most successful Ukrainian minister of the past four and a half years. The 35-year-old tech whizz-kid has helped transform Ukraine’s fortunes on the battlefield. As digital minister, he was the architect of Ukraine’s drone revolution. His genius was encouraging a tech ecosystem that has become the envy of the world with its rapid innovation and adaptation cycles.” (FT, 07.15.26)
  • FT’s Christopher Miller reports that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has laid bare a deep strategic rift at the top of Ukraine’s war effort. Fedorov—seen as the architect of Ukraine’s rapid drone and tech revolution—accuses Commander‑in‑Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and the General Staff of “blocking” reforms, clinging to Soviet‑style, manpower‑heavy tactics and loyalty‑based appointments instead of adapting to a battlefield dominated by drones and automation. (Financial Times, 07.17.26)
  • Mark Episkopos of Responsible Statecraft: “Ukraine's defense minister walked into Zelenskyy corruption buzzsaw... Mykhailo Fedorov advanced a successful drone program in part by bucking the patronage system, which, protected by the president, likely led to his sacking.” (Responsible Statecraft, 07.17.26)
  • AP’s Samya Kullab and Illia Novikov: “As minister, he moved to combat corruption, an issue that carries particular weight with Ukrainians who have repeatedly protested graft. Fighting corruption meant working against the interests of groups that had long profited from programs within the ministry, he said in interviews. He also sought to overhaul weapons procurement to make it more transparent.” (AP/PBS, 07.16.26)
  • Guardian’s Peter Beaumont: “Aged 35 and appointed in January, Fedorov was feted by admirers for beginning to grasp several issues that have plagued Ukraine’s armed forces, streamlining military procurement and challenging systems prone to corruption, introducing competitive tendering, and seeking solutions to the army’s persistent recruitment and training crisis.” (Guardian, 07.17.26)
  • FT’s Christopher Miller: “Fedorov was appointed only in January, but he is credited with accelerating procurement and drone production by the notoriously opaque ministry. Ukraine’s innovative use of mass-produced drones is seen as having helped slow Russia’s advances in recent months.” (FT, 07.16.26)
  • Forbes’ David Hambling: “On arrival, Fedorov instituted a large-scale audit which reportedly uncovered billions of dollars of corrupt deals. Implementation was swift and ruthless.” (Forbes, 07.16.26)
  • Russian pro-war bloggers welcomed Mykhailo Fedorov’s dismissal as Ukraine’s defense minister, arguing that his removal could weaken the Ukrainian military and benefit Russia. (NV/Moscow Times, 07.17.26)
• Sanctioned Ukrainian businessman Vadym Yermolaiev has publicly accused officers of Ukraine’s military intelligence service (GUR) of organizing the June 29 Monaco bombing that wounded him, his partner and son, saying evidence leaves him “no doubt” serving GUR personnel were involved. He urged Monaco, France and Ukraine to protect those linked to the case. GUR spokesman Andriy Yusov rejected the claims as politicized statements that harm the investigation. (Meduza, 07.16.26)

Friday, July 17, 2026

• Protests entered a second day across Ukraine over Zelenskyy’s move to remove Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, with rallies reported in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Lutsk, Poltava, Kharkiv, Odesa and other cities. Demonstrators carried signs reading “Bring back Fedorov” and “Fedorov’s dismissal is a gift to Russia,” and many demanded the resignation of Commander‑in‑Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, whom military analysts accuse of conservative, casualty‑heavy tactics and blocking Fedorov’s procurement and tech reforms. (iStories, 07.17.26)
• Fedorov’s tenure coincided with successful long-range drone strike campaigns that have hit refineries and other sites in Russia, as well as in the Crimean Peninsula. Fedorov had maintained ties with Silicon Valley executives interested in the transformation of warfare on Ukraine’s battlefields. He met repeatedly with Alex Karp, the chief executive of the data and analytics company Palantir, and he took credit this year for persuading Elon Musk to shut off Russia’s access to the Starlink satellite internet service, blinding Russian drones for a time. (New York Times,  07.17.26)
• DeepState reports that Zelenskyy has formally tasked acting SBU chief Yevhen Khmara with serving as acting defense minister, continuing reforms in the defense sector and delivering the “results we discussed.” The two discussed long‑range operations against Russia, equipping Defense Forces units, and further development of Ukraine’s defense capabilities. (DeepStateUA, 07.17.26)
• Career diplomat Sandra Oudkirk has been appointed as the new chargé d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, replacing Julie Davis, the embassy announced. Oudkirk, a member of the Senior Foreign Service with more than 30 years of international experience, has since 2024 worked at the U.S. Department of Defense as deputy director of the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies and as foreign policy adviser to U.S. European Command. (RBC‑Ukraine, 07.17.26)
• A joint investigation by Slidstvo.Info and Ukraine’s Anti‑Corruption Center, republished by Ukrainska Pravda, alleges that Aleksandr Sukhachov, brother of State Bureau of Investigation chief Oleksiy Sukhachov, acquired 143 apartments and offices in two Kharkiv developments linked to developer Stroy City between 2018–20, often paying the equivalent of $900–1,800 per unit—“smartphone prices” far below the then‑market rate of about $800 per square meter. Some of Sukhachov’s firms’ seals were later found in police raids on the developer, whose projects were under DBR investigation for illegal construction, raising conflict‑of‑interest concerns. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.17.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Monday, July 13, 2026

• A Russian Geran‑2 (Shahed‑136) drone crashed and exploded in Copanca, Moldova, about 25 km from Ukraine’s border, during strikes on Odesa, Moldova’s defense ministry said—at least the 20th such Russian drone or debris incident on its territory since 2022; Romania has recorded 30‑plus. ISW argues these repeated incursions into EU and NATO airspace show Moscow accepts this risk, strengthening the case for joint air‑defense arrangements with Ukraine. (ISW, 07.13.26)

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

• Armenian ambassador Narek Mkrtchyan told Axios that Yerevan is pursuing broad “diversification,” reducing reliance on Russia by expanding energy ties, AI and chip cooperation, and weapons imports from France, India, the U.S. and others. Armenia has ordered U.S.-made V‑BAT drones from Shield AI after a visit by Vice President J.D. Vance and is eyeing U.S. small modular reactors and the Pax Silica AI-supply‑chain initiative, while insisting this shift is not “against” Russia, Iran or China. (Axios, 07.15.26)

Thursday, July 16, 2026

• European security will be strengthened by a new U.K.-Estonia defense roadmap that will deepen military cooperation, strengthen NATO’s eastern flank and modernize the U.K.’s Forward Land Forces presence in Estonia for the challenges of modern warfare. (Gov.uk, 07.16.26)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “You have Gulf refineries and Russian refineries that have been disrupted. And that's putting pressure on global markets and the refined products,” Meghan O’Sullivan, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said. “I mentioned the Gulf and Russia … those refineries are coming off because of unanticipated consequences. So, I think that's part of the reason why these are two different markets that need to be understood separately.”  (Bloomberg/YouTube, 07.15.26) 

Endnotes

1. Ukraine’s new government named acting chiefs for two key ministries on July 17. Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyi said that, in agreement with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the cabinet appointed Yevhen Khmara as acting defense minister and Andriy Sybiha as acting foreign minister. Khmara previously headed the SBU’s Alfa special-operations center and then the Security Service as a whole; Zelenskyy has said his priority will be overseeing long‑range operations. Sybiha is a veteran diplomat and former deputy head of the presidential office. (RBC‑Ukraine, 07.17.26)
2. Sources used: ISW, 07.16.26, New York Times, 07.16.26, Ukrainska Pravda, 07.17.26, Financial Times, 07.16.26, RBC Ukraine, 07.17.26, New York Times, 07.17.26, Washington Post, 07.16.26, Financial Times, 07.16.26, Wall Street Journal, 07.17.26, Financial Times, 07.16.26, New York Times, 07.17.26, New York Times, 07.16.26, RFE/RL, 07.16.26, Financial Times, 07.16.26, RFE/RL, 07.16.26, RFE/RL, 07.16.26, RFE/RL, 07.16.26, Al Jazeera, 07.17.26, AP/PBS, 07.16.26, Guardian, 07.17.26, Financial Times, 07.16.26, Forbes, 07.16.26, NV/Moscow Times, 07.17.26.
3. Assuming an average month is about 4.3 weeks.
4. Commentaries on Fedorov’s ouster: 
   1. “Ukraine’s self-defeating reshuffle,” Editorial Board, Financial Times, July 15, 2026.  
   2. “I Didn’t Say ‘It’s Me or Syrskyi.’ But I Can’t Stay Silent,” Mykhailo Fedorov, NV.ua, July 17, 2026. In Ukrainian.
   3. Cabinet of Yulia Svyrydenko Lasted Only a Year. Along With Her, Zelenskyy Sacked Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Why Are Ukrainians Criticizing These Decisions?,” Konstantin Skorkin, Meduza, July 17, 2026. 
   4. “Ukraine’s rift over battlefield strategy breaks into the open,” Christopher Miller, Financial Times, July 17, 2026. 
   5. “The fallout of the fallout: Zelenskyy’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine,” Jana Kobzová, ECFR, July 17, 2026.
   6. ‘“Zelenskyy’s Cabinet Reshuffle Sparks Public Outcry in Ukraine,” Alexandra Sharp, Foreign Policy, July 16, 2026.
   7. “Ukraine’s defense minister walked into Zelenskyy corruption buzzsaw,” Mark Episkopos, Responsible Statecraft, July 17, 2026. 
       

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI was used in production of this digest.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: People gather to denounce President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's decision to dismiss Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after six months in the post, Thursday, July 16, 2026, Kyiv, Ukraine. (AP Photo/Danylo Antoniuk)