5 Things to Know

1. In spite of a report that U.S. and Russian negotiators in Abu Dhabi have reached a draft “handshake” deal to keep observing the limits and verification rules of the New START nuclear treaty for at least six months, Donald Trump rejected any extension of this accord, which expired on Feb. 5, calling it “badly negotiated” and “grossly violated,” and urged work on a new, long-term “modernized” arms control agreement. In a Truth Social post, he reiterated that U.S. “nuclear experts” should design a replacement deal, which his Secretary of State Marco Rubio said should include China. When asked about the end of the New START Treaty, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Feb. 6: "There is an understanding, which was discussed in Abu Dhabi, that both sides will act responsibly and will recognize the need to begin discussions on this issue as soon as possible.”^1,2
2. U.S. European Command said U.S. and Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi agreed to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue, suspended since the fall of 2021, with EUCOM commander Gen. Alexus Grynkewich authorized to engage directly with chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov to avoid miscalculation and support de-escalation.³ The channel between the two militaries “will provide a consistent military-to-military contact as the parties continue to work toward a lasting peace,” EUCOM said.
3. Two days of U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4–5 produced limited but concrete outcomes: Ukraine and Russia agreed to a 314-person prisoner exchange while also agreeing to continue negotiations, with the next round expected “soon,” likely in the United States. The sides also discussed technical aspects of ceasefire implementation, force separation and monitoring mechanisms. However, no breakthrough occurred on core political issues, such as Russia’s demand for full control of the Donbas region and its opposition to Western security guarantees for Ukraine. Moreover, Russia introduced a new demand that all participants formally recognize Donbas as Russian territory, and continues to reject binding Western security guarantees, while Kyiv officially refuses to give up any of the land it controls and is seeking additional guarantees, including for Odesa. Both sides publicly described the talks as constructive but difficult. A diplomatic source cited by TASS said drafting a Russia–Ukraine peace agreement would take at least six weeks under favorable conditions, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he hopes the war with Russia can be ended in less than a year.⁴That Zelenskyy may eventually agree to a compromise on the issue of control of the remnants of Donbas follows from his earlier remarks that the territorial issues may be put to vote in Ukraine. In addition, Mykolaiv governor and key Zelenskyy ally Vitaliy Kim has called for a peace deal that “puts people before land.”*
4. On the night of Feb. 2–3, Russia reportedly launched 450 drones and 71 missiles to resume attacks on Ukraine's energy sector, among other targets, after Russia ended a short energy truce that Trump had convinced Vladimir Putin to observe. The Feb. 2–3 strikes reportedly constituted the biggest aerial assault of the year on Ukraine. They left more than 1,170 high-rise buildings in Kyiv without heating once again and damaged a power plant in the eastern city of Kharkiv beyond repair, leaving 300,000 in that city without electricity, BBC, AFR and ISW reported. In addition to the Kyiv and Kharkiv Oblasts, parts of Kharkiv, Odesa and Vinnytsia Oblasts were also left without electricity. Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, said Russia’s Feb. 3 assault “dealt the most powerful blow to the energy sector since the beginning of the year,” Washington Post reported as temperatures were forecast to drop to -23°C (-9.4 °F) by next week. Since Jan. 1, Russian forces have attacked Ukraine’s energy sector 217 times, and as of early February, Ukraine faced a 2.9 GW electricity shortfall against nationwide demand of about 15.5 GW, according to the U.K.’s Defense Ministry and Financial Times.
5. RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Jan. 6–Feb. 3, 2026) indicates that Russian armed forces gained 123 square miles of Ukraine’s territory during that period, an increase over the 74 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Dec. 9, 2025–Jan. 6, 2026), according to the Feb. 4, 2026, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past week (Jan. 27–Feb. 3, 2026), Russia gained 29 square miles of Ukrainian territory (a little more than New York’s Manhattan Island), with Degtyarne in the Kharkiv Oblast becoming the sole settlement captured by Russia in that period, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The IAEA board held an urgent session in Vienna to examine mounting nuclear safety risks in Ukraine from Russia’s “ongoing and daily” strikes on its energy infrastructure. Director General Rafael Grossi warned that damage to key substations undermines the external power supply needed to cool reactors at Ukraine’s four nuclear plants, including Russian‑occupied Zaporizhzhia. An IAEA mission is inspecting 10 critical substations, while Kyiv praised U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to curb Russian “energy terror.” (Washington Post, 01.31.26)
• Russia is rapidly expanding the use of robotics across its nuclear sector, with Rosatom deploying robots on about 30 projects for transport, welding, inspection and control, cutting roughly 500,000 work hours a year and speeding nuclear plant construction. Moscow is also pursuing a nuclear‑powered lunar energy station by 2036 via Roscosmos, Rosatom and the Kurchatov Institute, aligned with the China‑Russia International Lunar Research Station and broader global efforts to use nuclear power on the Moon. (National Interest, 01.30.26)
• Russian state company Rosatom has begun main construction of Hungary’s Paks‑2 nuclear plant, pouring “first concrete” for a VVER‑1200 reactor that will make it the EU’s first new station with Russian Gen‑III+ technology. The project, financed mainly by a €10 billion Russian loan with €2.5 billion from Budapest, was cleared by the EU in 2023; in November 2025 the U.S. allowed Hungary to process payments via Russian banks for Paks‑2. (Korrespondent.net, 02.05.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korean troops supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine have moved beyond expendable infantry roles to operating surveillance drones, clearing mines and conducting artillery and MLRS strikes, according to Ukrainian intelligence. About 15,000 North Korean soldiers have rotated through the conflict, with thousands returning home as instructors, underscoring deepening military integration between Moscow and Pyongyang. (Wall Street Journal, 02.06.26)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia's foreign ministry said on Feb. 4 that a proposal to remove uranium from Iran as part of a deal to ease U.S. concerns was still on the table, but that it was for Tehran to decide whether or not to remove it. (Reuters, 02.04.26)
• Iran and the U.S. held indirect talks on Feb. 6 to reduce tensions that have threatened to spiral into war, with Tehran saying the meetings will be the first stage of a longer diplomatic process. “The consultations focused on creating the appropriate conditions for the resumption of diplomatic and technical negotiations,” Oman’s Foreign Ministry, which is mediating the talks in its capital Muscat, said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 02.06.26)
• Tehran has been holding consultations with Moscow and Beijing on the eve of negotiations between Iran and the United States on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, an Iranian source told RIA Novosti. (EA Daily, 02.06.26)
• The Kremlin on Feb. 6 said Russia welcomed indirect talks that began between U.S. and Iranian delegations in Oman. “We welcome the negotiations that have just begun in Oman,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters during a press briefing, expressing that Russia hopes these negotiations will be “productive” and lead to a de-escalation of regional tensions. (Andolu, 02.06.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• A Ukrainian border guard reported that Russia’s Senezh Spetsnaz Center executed multiple Ukrainian border guards who had surrendered during a December 2025 cross‑border attack in Chernihiv Oblast. (ISW, 01.30.26)

Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026

• Emergency power cuts hit Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions, as well as Moldova, after a technical failure on lines linking the two countries triggered cascading outages and shut down water supplies and the Kyiv metro. (Washington Post, 01.31.26)
  • ISW reports that months of Russian strikes have left Ukraine’s energy grid so damaged that a major blackout on Jan. 31 was triggered by a technical failure rather than a new attack. (ISW, 01.31.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026

• Ukrainian incursions into Russia’s Kursk region have driven a surge in missing-person cases, making it Russia’s leader by far on this metric, iStories reports. In 2025, police searched for 2,079 missing people there—about 200 per 100,000 residents, eight times the national average—after a sharp rise beginning with Ukraine’s 2024 seizure of over 1,000 square kilometers of the region. Over two years, 2,333 people were listed as missing; 586 remain unaccounted for and are likely dead, activists say. (iStories, 02.03.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

• Ukrainians are enduring Russia’s most intense winter strikes yet on energy infrastructure, with temperatures plunging below –20°C and rolling blackouts hitting Kyiv and other cities. Ukraine is forecast to face snow, ice, and sharp cold snaps in coming days, with temperatures in some regions dropping to −23°C by Feb. 9, according to the Ukrhydrometcenter. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.06.26, Bloomberg, 02.04.26) 

Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

• Russia and Ukraine conducted their first prisoner exchange in five months on Feb. 5, swapping 314 captives—157 from each side—with Russia also repatriating three civilians from the Kursk region. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said those freed included 15 Ukrainians previously sentenced to life imprisonment in Russia. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said the deal was reached during trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi and pointed to “tangible results” from diplomacy. (Meduza, 02.05.26, New York Times, 02.05.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• Building a new thermal power plant in Ukraine could cost up to €600 million and take three to four years, said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center of Ukraine. (Strana.ua via Telegram, 06.02.26)
• Ukraine’s access to more than $115 billion in international financing is at risk due to delays in meeting reform benchmarks tied to an International Monetary Fund program, analysts said. The IMF’s $8.2 billion program is stalled over unmet “prior actions,” jeopardizing linked EU funding and raising 2026 budget risks amid weak reform implementation. (Korrespondent.net, 02.06.26)
• The Russian government said Feb. 5 it would allocate 1.27 billion rubles ($16.6 million) to cover three months of housing costs for nearly 21,000 families displaced as a result of Ukraine’s incursion into the southwestern Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 02.05.26)

For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Jan. 6–Feb. 3, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 123 square miles of Ukraine’s territory during that period, an increase over the 74 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Dec. 9, 2025–Jan. 6, 2026), according to the Feb. 4, 2026, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 02.06.25)

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• On Jan. 30, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pryluky and Zelene. (RM, 02.06.25)

Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026

• On Jan. 31, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Dobropillia and in Prymorske. (RM, 02.06.25)

Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026

• On Feb. 1, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Stupochky and Toretsk. (RM, 02.06.25)
• On the night of Feb. 2-3, Russia used a record 32 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones to target Ukraine's energy sector, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was quoted as saying on Feb. 3. The strikes were launched as temperatures dropped to -20C (-4F), BBC and AFR reported. (RM, 02.03.25)
• The strikes left more than 1,000 tower blocks in Kyiv without heating once again and damaged a power plant in the eastern city of Kharkiv beyond repair. The Russian drones struck a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia, wounding at least six people, and hit a DTEK bus carrying miners near Ternivka/Dnipro, with Ukrainian officials reporting 15 killed and multiple injured. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia has shifted from targeting the energy grid to systematically striking transport routes, including highways, railways and buses, citing a “double-tap” drone attack that hit survivors and first responders. Kyiv describes the strikes as deliberate terror ahead of renewed trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4–5, BBC and AFR reported. (RM, 02.03.25, ISW, 02.01.26, Washington Post, 02.01.26, Financial Times, 02.01.26)

Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

• On Feb. 2, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces have regained their position in Kupyansk. The Russian forces advanced near Udachne, Hryshyne and Pryvillya. (RM, 02.06.25)
• According to the monitoring project DeepState, at Russia’s 2025 rate of advance in Donetsk region it would need at least 742 days (about two years) to occupy the entire oblast. Co‑founder Ruslan Mykula said: “78% of Donetsk region is now occupied by the enemy… Before the full‑scale invasion, Russia controlled 32.3% of the oblast. In 2022 it seized another 24.4%, and from 2023 to now 21.8%. The Armed Forces still hold 21.5%. At the 2025 pace, the enemy would need at least 742 days to occupy Donetsk region completely.” (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.02.26)
• On the night of Feb. 2–3, Russia reportedly launched 450 drones and 71 missiles to, among other targets, resume attacks on Ukraine's energy sector after Russia ended a short energy truce that Trump had convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin to observe. The Feb. 2–3 strikes reportedly constituted the biggest aerial assault of the year on Ukraine. They left more than 1,170 high-rise buildings in Kyiv without heating once again and damaged a power plant in the eastern city of Kharkiv beyond repair, leaving 300,000 in that city without electricity, BBC, AFR and ISW reported. In addition to the Kyiv and Kharkiv Oblasts, parts of Kharkiv, Odesa and Vinnytsia Oblasts were also left without electricity as temperatures dropped 13 degrees below zero Fahrenheit in parts of Ukraine this week. Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, said Russia’s Feb. 3 assault “dealt the most powerful blow to the energy sector since the beginning of the year,” WP reported. (RM, 02.04.26)
• Two people were killed in the southwestern Belgorod region after a Ukrainian drone crashed into their home and set it ablaze, local authorities said Feb. 2. (MT/AFP, 02.02.26)
• Hundreds of Kenyans have been recruited—often deceptively—into the Russian military and sent to fight, and frequently die, in Ukraine. (Washington Post, 02.02.26)
  • Ukraine’s military intelligence said three Kenyan nationals fighting for Russia were killed near Lyman in Donetsk Oblast (Korrespondent.net, 02.06.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026

• On Feb. 3, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and near Siversk. (RM, 02.06.25)
• The U.K. Ministry of Defense reports that after a brief lull, Russia resumed large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Feb. 2–3, launching a multi-axis strike involving four Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, 32 short-range ballistic missiles, up to 35 cruise missiles, and around 450 one-way attack drones. Cumulative damage from four years of strikes has significantly weakened Ukraine’s power generation capacity. As of early February, Ukraine faced a 2.9 GW electricity shortfall against nationwide demand of about 15.5 GW, forcing emergency repairs and widespread scheduled and unscheduled power outages across most regions. (U.K. Ministry of Defense, 02.06.26)
• Trump said that Putin “kept his word” on not attacking Ukraine for one week—despite the perception that Putin broke the deal with a bombing blitz after just four days. “It was Sunday to Sunday, and it opened up. And he hit them hard last night,” Trump told reporters on Feb. 3 afternoon in the Oval Office. “He kept his word on that. It was—it’s a lot, you know, one week. We’ll take anything, because it’s really, really cold over there, but it was on Sunday, and he went from Sunday to Sunday.” Trump added: “I spoke to him. I want him to end the war.” (New York Post, 02.03.26)
• ISW says Russian forces have begun using long‑range Gerbera drones as “motherships” to carry FPV strike or reconnaissance drones deeper into Ukrainian rear areas, expanding on earlier, shorter‑range mothership systems. (ISW, 02.03.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

• On Feb. 4, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and near Siversk. (RM, 02.06.25)
• Thousands of people in the southwestern Belgorod region of Russi are without power, heating and water for the second time in a month after Ukrainian airstrikes Feb. 3 night damaged energy infrastructure, with emergency crews scrambling to restore utilities to customers amid subzero temperatures. Belgorod region Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said early Feb. 4 that 12 missiles and three drones had struck the city of Belgorod over the past 24 hours, damaging facilities critical to the functioning of the region’s power grid. Another 19 missiles and 104 have struck the wider region since Feb. 3. (MT/AFP, 02.04.26,)
• On Feb. 4, Russia used cluster munitions on a crowded market in Druzhkivka, Donetsk region, killing seven and wounding eight, and launched 105 attack drones across Ukraine, of which 88 were shot down. Additional strikes hit Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa, killing civilians and damaging around 20 residential buildings, prompting Ukrainian officials to call Russian ceasefire rhetoric “worthless.” (Washington Post, 02.04.26)
• Zelenskyy said in an interview with France 2 that more than 55,000 Ukrainian service members—both professional soldiers and mobilized personnel—have been killed in the war, plus a large number listed as missing. France Info notes that foreign research centers estimate Ukraine’s true military death toll could be two to three times higher; the UALosses project has individually documented about 86,000 dead and 89,000 missing Ukrainian soldiers as of Feb. 4. (Meduza, 02.04.26)⁵
• Zelenskyy said Feb. 5 that more than 1,100 buildings remained without heat in the capital. (Financial Times, 02.06.26)

Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

• On Feb. 5, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Degtyarne and advanced near Hrabovske, Milayivka and Nikiforivka. (RM, 02.06.25)
• Russian forces shelled Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions on Feb. 4, killing 12 civilians and wounding 29, Ukrainian regional authorities reported. Eight people, including seven in Druzhkivka, died in Donetsk region; four were killed and five wounded in Kherson region; and three people were injured in Zaporizhzhia’s Polohy district amid nearly 800 strikes in 24 hours, mostly using artillery, aviation, MLRS, and FPV drones. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.05.26)
• Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes with domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles against Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch site in Astrakhan Oblast, about 430 km from Ukraine’s border. The strikes reportedly damaged hangars used to prepare intercontinental and intermediate-range ballistic missile launches, including facilities linked to Russia’s Oreshnik missile attacks. (Institute for the Study of War, 02.05.26)
• Zelenskyy appointed Maj. Gen. Oleh Luhovsky, first deputy head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR), as acting SZR chief by presidential decree. (RBC.ua, 02.05.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s Belgorod late on Feb. 5–6, hitting energy infrastructure and causing widespread power, heating, and water outages amid freezing temperatures, according to regional authorities and independent media. Local officials reported severe damage with no restoration timeline, while state media downplayed the scale of disruptions. (Meduza, 02.06.26)
• A Ukrainian drone struck a moving car in the village of Murom, Belgorod region, killing the driver and severely injuring a female passenger, who suffered blast trauma, multiple shrapnel wounds and burns, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said. (Mediazona, citing Gladkov’s Telegram, 02.06.26)
• Ukraine’s air defenses repelled a major Russian aerial assault overnight on Feb. 6, intercepting 297 of 328 attack drones, while two Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles and five Kh-59/69 air-launched missiles failed to reach targets, the Ukrainian Air Force said. Strikes were reported at 14 locations, with debris falling at two sites as the attack continued into the morning. (RBC-Ukraine, 02.06.26)
• On Feb. 6, Russia launched 328 drones and seven missiles, with Ukraine claiming 297 drones shot down. More than 1,200 residential buildings in Kyiv remained without heating during sub-zero temperatures, as Ukraine prepares further air-defense adjustments and additional U.S.-brokered talks. Russian strikes have driven Ukraine into its harshest winter since 2022, with temperatures in Kyiv and central regions falling well below freezing and heavy snowfall burying the capital, home to nearly 4 million people. Since Jan. 1, Russian forces have attacked Ukraine’s energy sector 217 times, Ukrainian officials said, leaving more than 1,100 buildings in Kyiv without heat at points in January. (Financial Times, 02.06.26, Washington Post, 02.06.26)
  • Ukrenergo reported new power outages in eight Ukrainian regions as of Feb. 6 due to Russian strikes and severe weather. Shelling damaged energy infrastructure in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, while snow and strong winds cut power to 109 settlements in western regions. (Korrespondent.net, 02.06.26)
• Zelenskyy criticized the performance of Ukraine’s Air Force in several regions, calling for immediate measures to improve interception of Shahed drones. He said 1,200 buildings in Kyiv remain without heating and ordered expanded support using digital tools to assess needs. Zelenskyy also cited increased Russian strikes on rail infrastructure in January amid continued large-scale missile and drone attacks. (Korrespondent.net, 02.06.26)
• Zelenskyy announced upcoming personnel changes in Ukraine’s Air Force, specifically in certain regions and units responsible for defending against Russian Shahed drone attacks. The changes aim to strengthen air defense capabilities, he said in his evening address. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.06.26)
• Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said the roughly 1,200-km frontline “remains difficult,” with Russia continuing offensive actions along the entire contact line, though about 25% of engagements now involve Ukrainian offensives to keep Russian forces under pressure and prevent advances. He said Russian troop levels remain stable at about 711,000–712,000, with daily losses of 1,000–1,100 and no major Russian operational gains in January. Syrskyi reported disciplinary action against commanders whose false reports contributed to the loss of Siversk, adding the situation there has stabilized. He said territorial recruitment centers account for about 90% of mobilization. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.06.26, Bloomberg, 02.06.26, Korrespondent.net, 02.06.26, Korrespondent.net, 02.06.26)
• A senior Russian military intelligence official, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, first deputy head of the GRU, was shot multiple times by an unknown assailant at his Moscow apartment building on Feb. 6, and hospitalized in critical condition in what authorities are treating as an attempted assassination. Russian investigators opened a murder/terrorism case and the Kremlin said Putin was briefed. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Ukraine of terrorism aimed at disrupting peace talks, though Kyiv has not officially commented. Alekseyev, a key figure in operations in Syria and Ukraine and a mediator during the 2023 Wagner mutiny, had been suspended after that episode. The attack adds to a string of targeted strikes on senior Russian officers amid ongoing tensions around the Ukraine war. (Wall Street Journal, 02.06.26, Meduza, 02.06.26, Financial Times, 02.06.26, iStories, 02.06.26)
• During Prigozhin’s mutiny, Alexeyev was one of two Russian generals who publicly urged Wagner to stop, calling its actions a coup and a stab in the back, and later negotiated with Prigozhin. He oversaw Wagner and other “volunteer formations,” including PMC Redut, and has been identified as an initiator of Redut’s creation; Alexeyev is under EU and U.K. sanctions linked to the 2018 Skripal poisoning. (IStories, 02.06.26)

• The shooting of Alexeyev was at least the eighth successful assassination attempt on senior Defense Ministry officers since the start of the war, according to calculations by Verstka. Six of them have been killed. (Verstka, 02.06.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026

• Elon Musk said SpaceX has successfully blocked Russia’s “unauthorized” use of Starlink after Ukrainian forces found Starlink equipment on Russian attack drones used against cities and energy infrastructure. Ukrainian defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov said initial countermeasures are already working and that Kyiv is coordinating closely with SpaceX, though some Ukrainian units were temporarily affected. Ukraine now plans a system allowing only registered, “authorized” Starlink terminals to function on its territory, with unverified devices to be disconnected. (Financial Times, 02.01.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

• The Kremlin’s resumption of its campaign of air strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ignited a firestorm of bipartisan calls on Capitol Hill for immediate action to support Kyiv, but a more measured response from the White House. (RFE/RL, 02.04.26)

Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

• Zelenskyy called on Trump to send more weapons for his military to put it in a better position to force Putin to end the war. “Putin is only afraid of Trump,” Zelenskyy said in an interview with France 2 television from Kyiv, speaking through a French interpreter (Bloomberg, 02.04.26)
• At Ukraine’s request, SpaceX curtailed Russian troops’ illicit use of Starlink, cutting satellite internet access that Russian forces had relied on for frontline communications and drones. Russian military bloggers reported widespread outages and coordination problems. Ukraine introduced mandatory registration and speed limits for Starlink terminals to prevent their use on Russian strike drones, with officials saying the move is already disrupting Russian battlefield operations. (New York Times, 02.05.26)
• Russian military bloggers on Feb. 5 reported a sweeping outage of Starlink internet terminals across the front line in Ukraine (MT/AFP, 02.05.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• Canada will transfer AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles to Ukraine to strengthen air defense against cruise missiles and drones, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said. The missiles are compatible with F-16 fighters and NASAMS systems and are already being delivered. Kyiv thanked Ottawa for its role in the PURL initiative, saying recent contributions were critical in repelling mass Russian air attacks, and discussed cooperation on drone production and control systems. (Korrespondent.net, 02.06.26)

• Kyiv’s Air Force was so short of Pac-3 interceptor missiles for its Patriot air defense systems last month that their launchers sat empty, unable to respond while ballistic missiles pounded power plants unchallenged. (Financial Times, 02.06.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

• The European Union is considering to ban Russian imports of several platinum group metals and copper as part of new sanctions targeting Moscow for its war against Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 02.02.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026

• Canada said Feb. 2 that it stopped issuing visas at its processing centers in Russia last month as part of a broader government effort to cut costs and modernize operations rather than as a shift in its immigration policy toward Russian citizens. (MT/AFP, 02.03.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

• Estonian forces seized a cargo ship bound for Russia and conducted a search of the vessel over suspicions of smuggling activity, the Baltic nation said. (Bloomberg, 02.04.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• The EU Court of Justice ruled that vehicles imported from Russia into the EU in violation of sanctions may be legally confiscated, stating customs authorities are not required to assess whether individual transactions generate income for Russia. The court said exemptions for personal use do not apply to cars imported in breach of sanctions. (Meduza, 02.06.26)
• The European Commission unveiled a proposed 20th sanctions package targeting Russia’s oil revenues, shadow fleet, banking sector, and trade, including bans on maritime services for Russian crude, sanctions on 43 more shadow-fleet vessels, restrictions on LNG tanker servicing, and listings of 20 regional banks. Ursula von der Leyen said Russia’s 2025 oil and gas revenues fell 24% year-on-year, the lowest since 2020. (RBC-Ukraine, 02.06.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026

• A U.S. delegation led by special envoy Steve Witkoff met in Miami on Jan. 31 with Kirill Dmitriev, Russia’s chief negotiator and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund. Witkoff said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former presidential adviser Jared Kushner, and White House adviser Josh Gruenbaum joined the “productive” and “constructive” talks, without disclosing details. The meeting comes ahead of planned U.S. talks with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Abu Dhabi. (ISW, 01.31.26)
• The Kremlin rejected U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s claim that Donetsk Oblast is the only unresolved issue in U.S.‑Ukraine‑Russia peace talks. Russian presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov said territorial questions are “most important” but “many other issues remain,” signaling Moscow is preparing domestic audiences to resist concessions in any settlement. (ISW, 01.31.26)

Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026

• Witkoff said Jan. 31 he had held constructive talks with a Russian envoy in Florida. "Today in Florida, the Russian Special Envoy Kirill Dmitriev held productive and constructive meetings as part of the U.S. mediation effort toward advancing a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict," Witkoff posted on X. "We are encouraged by this meeting that Russia is working toward securing peace in Ukraine," he added. (MT/AFP, 02.01.26)
• A second round of U.S.-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi has been delayed to Feb. 4–5 after a surprise Florida meeting between Witkoff and Dmitriev, held without Ukrainian participation. Both sides called the Florida talks “productive” but offered no details. Zelenskyy confirmed the new dates, saying Kyiv is ready for a “substantive” and “dignified” end to the war. The trilateral process, which began Jan. 23–24, still faces major hurdles over Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk and the scope of U.S. security guarantees for Kyiv. (New York Times, Meduza, 02.01.26)

Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

• Russian Security Council deputy chair Dmitry Medvedev said Moscow’s demands in peace talks “remain unchanged,” insisting Ukraine accept neutrality, drastic demilitarization, and “denazification” (regime change), and cede all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, including areas Russia does not occupy. He called the territorial issue the most complex obstacle in negotiations and rejected Western proposals to deploy European or NATO troops in Ukraine as postwar security guarantees, warning such forces would be “legitimate targets.” Medvedev said Russia instead requires security guarantees of its own and framed dismantling Ukraine’s current political regime as an “exceptionally important task” to ensure no future threat emerges from Kyiv. (ISW, 02.02.26, TASS, 02.02.26)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that U.S.-brokered trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States will resume in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4–5 after a brief postponement he attributed to scheduling issues. He called the negotiations “very complex,” noting some issues are closer to agreement while others remain difficult, particularly over Russian-held and claimed territory in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine is working with SpaceX and requiring Starlink terminal registration to block Russian forces from using the system to guide drone attacks. (Washington Post, 02.02.26)
• Ukraine should pursue a peace deal that “puts people before land,” Mykolaiv governor and key Zelenskyy ally Vitaliy Kim told The Independent ahead of a Frontline Cities and Communities Forum where regional leaders will debate acceptable terms. Kim said his personal goal remains restoring Ukraine’s 1991 borders, but many exhausted Ukrainians now define “victory” as simply ending the war with strong security guarantees. He warned Western backers against “appeasement,” invoking Neville Chamberlain’s failures in the 1930s. (Independent, 02.02.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026

• Ukraine and its Western partners have agreed in principle on a multi‑tier plan to enforce any future ceasefire with Russia: a Russian violation would trigger a response within 24 hours, starting with a diplomatic warning and Ukrainian military action to halt the infraction. 
  If Russian violations persisted, a second phase would bring in a European‑led “coalition of the willing” (including many EU states plus the U.K., Norway, Iceland and Turkey) to apply military pressure, with a third phase—after 72 hours of continued aggression—triggering a coordinated response by a Western‑backed force involving the U.S. military. (Financial Times, 02.03.26)
• Moscow has ruled out accepting Western troops in Ukraine or agreeing to any ceasefire before a full political settlement, dismissing U.S.–Ukraine security guarantees that do not also apply to Russia. Dmitry Medvedev said security guarantees “can’t be one-sided” and must cover both Russia and Ukraine to be valid. The Institute for the Study of War reports the Kremlin, Foreign Ministry, and State Duma continue to label Western guarantees “unacceptable,” warning foreign troops would be treated as “legitimate targets.” ISW assesses these nuclear-tinged threats are coercive messaging aimed at deterring U.S. security agreements with Kyiv, not evidence of imminent nuclear intent. (Financial Times, ISW, 02.03.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

• U.S.-facilitated trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States resumed in Abu Dhabi on Feb 4. Ukraine’s delegation is led by Rustem Umerov, with Russia represented by Igor Kostyukov and the U.S. by Steve Witkoff and other senior officials. Talks began in joint sessions before splitting into working groups. Despite U.S. officials calling discussions “meaningful,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s position remains unchanged. Core disputes center on Moscow’s demand that Ukraine cede remaining Donetsk territory and Russia’s rejection of binding Western security guarantees, which Kyiv and Washington insist are essential. (RFE/RL, Meduza, Financial Times, New York Times, ISW, 02.04.26)
• A recent Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll indicates that 40 percent of Ukrainians would support ceding the remaining Ukrainian‑held part of the Donbas to Russia in exchange for strong security guarantees, a striking shift from May 2022, when 82 percent opposed any territorial concessions under any circumstances. The change reflects deep war‑weariness as Moscow insists U.S.-backed peace talks can advance only if Kyiv agrees to forgo the Donbas, though analysts warn such a move could fracture Ukrainian society and leave Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian attacks. (New York Times, 02.04.26)

Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

• During the second day of trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 5, Russian negotiators introduced a new condition, demanding that all participating countries formally recognize Donbas as Russian territory, which Moscow reportedly frames as a prerequisite for any broader “big deal.” Talks ended after about three hours—far shorter than the previous day—amid vague claims of “progress” and no disclosed movement on core disputes over Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk or postwar security guarantees. Zelenskyy said the main tangible outcome so far was a 314-person prisoner exchange, while Kyrylo Budanov called the discussions “constructive” but offered no details. The sides agreed to hold a third round of talks “in the near future,” underscoring that no agreement to end the war has yet been reached. (Korrespondent.net, New York Times, RBC.ua, 02.05.26)
• Zelenskyy said he hopes the war with Russia can be ended in less than a year. "If we lose this war, we will lose our country's independence," Zelenskyy said. He stressed that the loss of sovereignty and possible absorption by Russia would be catastrophic for Ukrainians. At the same time, the president expressed confidence that such a scenario would not materialize. He also expressed hope for a diplomatic end to the war. "I hope that peace will be achieved in less than a year," he noted. Zelenskyy said the next round of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia is "likely" to take place in the United States. (RBC.ua, RFE/RL, 02.05.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• The Kremlin described recent Russia–Ukraine–U.S. talks in Abu Dhabi as “constructive but very difficult,” with negotiations ongoing, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. The second round, held Feb. 4–5, focused on technical aspects of ceasefire implementation, force separation, and monitoring mechanisms, according to Ukrainian officials and sources cited by RBC-Ukraine. Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Kyrylo Budanov described the discussions as “constructive.” Delegations reportedly agreed on elements of a monitoring framework and a prisoner exchange but made no breakthrough on the key dispute over control of Donetsk Oblast. Kyiv warned Moscow could use the shooting of GRU deputy chief Vladimir Alekseyev as a pretext to delay talks. Ukrainian officials said further meetings could take place soon in the United States, following an initial session in Abu Dhabi in late January. (Korrespondent.net, RBC-Ukraine, RBC-Ukraine, 02.06.26; ISW, 02.05.26)
• A source cited by TASS said drafting a Russia–Ukraine peace agreement would take at least six weeks under favorable conditions, citing complex, phased negotiations. Ukraine is reportedly seeking security guarantees for Odesa. Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. have held two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi and agreed on a prisoner exchange and renewed military dialogue. (Meduza, 02.06.26)
• Two top OSCE officials, acting head Ignazio Cassis and Secretary General Feridun Hadi Sinirlioglu, made the first visit to Moscow since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, holding four hours of talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on ending the war and possible OSCE monitoring of a future ceasefire. They also raised the plight of three detained Ukrainian OSCE staff. (The Moscow Times, 02.06.26)
• Swiss Foreign Minister and OSCE Chair Ignazio Cassis said he presented Kyiv and Moscow with three identical sets of ideas: on a new European security architecture amid a perceived U.S. pullback, on how the OSCE could support a peace process and post-ceasefire phase between Russia and Ukraine, and on reforms to make the OSCE more open and dialog-focused. Both sides were open and will respond via their missions in Vienna. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.06.26)
• Despite shortages of air-defense interceptors and hundreds of attacks on energy infrastructure since January, surveys show public resolve remains strong, with about 65% of Ukrainians willing to endure the war as long as necessary. (Financial Times, 02.06.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026

• Russia is expanding military infrastructure near the Finnish border, likely to prepare for potential future conflict with NATO, ISW reports. Satellite imagery shows major reconstruction at the Rybka base in Petrozavodsk and a new garrison town at Kandalaksha for artillery and engineering brigades under the new 44th Army Corps of the Leningrad Military District. These moves follow Russia’s 2024 restructuring of its Western Military District and come amid repeated Kremlin threats toward Finland. (ISW, 02.01.26)

Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

• Deputy chairman of RF Security Council Medvedev told TASS that Western states, especially in Europe, are Russia’s enemies seeking its destruction and likened the Ukraine war to World War II defense of the motherland. He labeled Russians who are indifferent to the front, unwilling to help the state, or lacking “basic patriotism” as “internal enemies.” ISW assesses this Soviet‑style framing is meant to justify intensifying repression and solidify a war‑footing for a prolonged conflict with Ukraine and possibly NATO. (ISW, 02.02.26)
• German authorities arrested five men accused of running a Russia‑backed smuggling network that supplied at least 24 Russian arms manufacturers with sanctioned European technology worth over €30mn since 2022. Led by Lübeck-based German-Russian citizen “Nikita S.”, the group allegedly used front companies, fake buyers and a Russian recipient firm to route more than 16,000 shipments to Russia in violation of EU export bans. Police are searching for five additional suspects amid a broader German crackdown on sanctions evasion. (Financial Times, 02.02.26)
• Britain revoked the accreditation of a Russian diplomat and summoned Ambassador Andrey Kelin after Moscow expelled a British embassy staffer on spying allegations last month. London condemned the “baseless accusations” and warned that any further Russian steps would be treated as escalation. The move is the latest in a series of reciprocal expulsions between Russia and NATO states since the 2022 full‑scale invasion of Ukraine. (Washington Post, 02.02.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

• Poland’s Defense Ministry said a long‑serving civilian employee was detained at its Warsaw headquarters on suspicion of spying for a foreign intelligence service. Polish outlet Onet reported the 60‑year‑old, who had worked at the ministry for over 30 years, is suspected of cooperating with Russian and Belarusian intelligence and of having direct contact with identified officers. Officials said he had been under military counterintelligence surveillance for some time and now faces serious espionage charges. (Meduza, 02.04.26)
• European security officials say two Russian “Luch” spacecraft have repeatedly maneuvered dangerously close to at least 17 key European geostationary satellites since 2023, likely intercepting unencrypted command and communications links and mapping ground terminals. Analysts warn this could let Moscow later spoof commands, disrupt or even de‑orbit satellites, as part of a broader pattern of Russian “hybrid warfare” that now extends into space. (Financial Times, 02.04.26)

Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

• A high-profile German-run wargame simulating an October 2026 Russian “humanitarian” incursion into Lithuania found NATO deterrence crumbled without clear U.S. leadership: under the scenario, Russia seized the key crossroads city of Marijampole with roughly 15,000 troops, Germany hesitated, the U.S. declined to invoke Article 5, and Poland held back, allowing Moscow to dominate the Baltics politically at minimal cost. Baltic and NATO officers say real‑world intelligence and national forces would respond more robustly, but the exercise underscores how hybrid tactics and doubts about allied will could let the Kremlin test and potentially fracture the alliance even before any Ukrainian peace deal. (Wall Street Journal, 02.05.26)
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Thursday it was expelling a German diplomat in retaliation for a similar move by authorities in Berlin last month. The Foreign Ministry said it had issued a note declaring a staff member of the German Embassy in Moscow persona non grata, calling the decision a “symmetrical response.” In January, Germany summoned Russia’s ambassador and expelled a Russian diplomat it said had overseen the activities of a woman later arrested on espionage charges. (MT/AFP, 02.05.26)
• French President Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic adviser Emmanuel Bonne secretly traveled to Moscow on Feb. 3 for talks at the Kremlin, reportedly meeting Vladimir Putin’s aide Yury Ushakov, according to L’Express and Reuters. The Elysée neither confirmed nor denied the visit, saying only that “technical-level” discussions are underway in full transparency and in consultation with President Zelenskyy and key European partners as Macron prepares a possible future call with Putin. (Meduza, 02.05.26)
  • Estonia’s president triggered a backlash from the government of one of the European Union’s biggest Russia hawks by declaring his support for direct talks between the bloc and Moscow. Alar Karis said in an interview with Euronews this week that the bloc’s policy of cutting off dialog with Moscow has cost it a seat at the negotiation table as the U.S. seeks to broker an end to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At a press conference in Tallinn on Feb. 5, Prime Minister Kristen Michal said direct talks with Russia were “inappropriate,” adding that “only pressure works in Russia’s case.” (Bloomberg, 02.05.26)
  • Lavrov claimed Moscow maintains “clandestine” contacts with some European leaders regarding ending the war in Ukraine, saying they privately urge ending hostilities but publicly maintain a hard line calling for Russia’s “strategic defeat.” He accused European states of trying to undermine emerging U.S.-Russia talks and reiterated that Europe insists Ukraine must not lose and Russia must not win. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.06.26)
• NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, on a two-day visit to Ukraine, traveled to Chernihiv region, including the village of Yahidne, where Russian troops held more than 300 civilians in a basement for nearly a month in 2022. He also inspected a local energy facility damaged by Russian strikes and visited a “Point of Invincibility” shelter in Chernihiv to meet rescuers and residents. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.05.26)
• U.S. Congress has approved $200 million in security assistance for the Baltic states as Russian activity along NATO’s eastern flank intensifies. (RFE/RL, 02.05.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• Norway’s foreign intelligence service sees a growing risk of a more assertive Russia and China as the U.S. pulls back from international cooperation and institutions. The weakening of the global rules-based order is “shaking the foundations of Norwegian security,” Nils Andreas Stensones, the head of the service, known as E-tjeneste, told reporters in Oslo on Friday. “The political behavior in Washington influences how Beijing and Moscow are thinking and maybe how they are acting in the future,” Stensones said in an interview. (Bloomberg, 02.06.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping praised Russia–China ties as “exemplary” in their first direct talks of the year during a Feb. 4 video call marking 25 years of the Treaty of Good Neighborliness. Putin said Moscow and Beijing would maintain close coordination in global and regional affairs, calling the partnership a stabilizing factor, and noted bilateral trade has exceeded $200 billion for a third straight year, despite a 6.9% decline in 2025 to $228 billion. Xi said relations have entered a “new stage,” urged deeper strategic coordination, and framed the partnership as a joint defense of sovereignty, World War II outcomes, and “international justice.” (Bloomberg; Kremlin, 02.04.26)
  • Presidential aide Yury Ushakov said both leaders are aware of ongoing contacts between Moscow, Beijing and the Trump administration, see emerging opportunities in them, and that Xi explicitly supports the trilateral security talks under way in Abu Dhabi; Putin briefed him on efforts to reach a peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine. (Kremlin, 02.04.26)
  • Ushakov said Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping held their sixth annual early‑year video conference on Feb. 4, continuing a tradition of pre–Spring Festival talks to review the past year and set priorities for Russian‑Chinese relations. the 1‑hour‑25‑minute conversation covered plans for developing Russian‑Chinese relations in 2026 and devoted “serious attention” to an increasingly “tense and explosive” international situation in several regions. (Kremlin, 02.04.26)
  • Ushakov said Xi Jinping invited Vladimir Putin to pay an official visit to China in the first half of 2026, an invitation Putin accepted in principle, with dates to be agreed later. Presidential aide Yury Ushakov said Xi also invited Putin to attend the APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen in November, and that Russia supports China’s APEC chairmanship and expects Putin to participate. Presidential aide Yury Ushakov said further bilateral meetings between Putin and Xi are planned on the margins of other international events, including those held under SCO and BRICS auspices. (Kremlin, 02.04.26)In October 2025, Trump attended the APEC summit in Busan, South Korea. He may attend the 2026 summit as well, paving the way for a bilateral with Putin.
• Donald Trump said he held a “long and thorough” call with Xi Jinping that covered the war in Ukraine alongside trade, Iran and security issues, ahead of his planned state visit to Beijing in April. Chinese readouts noted Xi had just spoken with Vladimir Putin about rising global “turbulence” and stressed that China and Russia, as “responsible major powers,” must defend World War II’s outcomes and “global strategic stability”—language Beijing routinely uses while pointedly avoiding any criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Financial Times, 02.05.26)
• Medvedev called Beijing a “strategic partner,” reaffirmed Moscow’s support for a “single China” including Taiwan, and declined to comment on hypothetical conflict scenarios involving the People’s Republic of China. (TASS, 02.02.26)
• A January 2026 Levada Center poll finds 83% of Russians view China positively (27% “very good,” 56% “mainly good”). By contrast, only 33% have a positive view of the U.S. while 45% are negative; 21% view the EU positively and 58% negatively; and just 16% express a positive attitude toward Ukraine. Overall attitudes to the EU remain predominantly negative despite a slight uptick in favorable views late last year. (Levada, 02.05.26)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:⁶

Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

• Russian Security Council deputy chair Dmitry Medvedev warned that the global situation is “very dangerous” and that a world war “cannot be ruled out,” arguing the “pain threshold” for conflict is falling as nuclear arsenals risk becoming unconstrained for the first time in six decades. He said Russia has not discussed nuclear use in Ukraine beyond its updated 2024 doctrine, but stressed that the “Foundations of Nuclear Deterrence” now permit potential nuclear use in response to massive drone or missile strikes, though any such step would be “extraordinary.” Medvedev added that Russia’s offer to extend the New START treaty beyond its Feb. 5 expiry remains open. The Institute for the Study of War assesses this mix of nuclear signaling and arms-control overtures is intended to extract Ukraine-related concessions from Washington. (TASS; ISW, 02.02.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026

• The Kremlin has warned that the world is heading into a "dangerous" period as New START, the last nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia, is set to expire on Thursday. "In just a few days, the world will be in a more dangerous position than it has ever been before," top spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists at a daily briefing on Tuesday. Earlier, President Vladimir Putin offered to extend New START, first signed in 2010, by another year. Peskov said officials in Moscow "still haven't received a response from the Americans to this initiative." If the treaty is not extended, the world's top two nuclear powers will "be left without a fundamental document that would limit and control these arsenals," he added. (MT/AFP, 02.03.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

• Presidential aide Yury Ushakov said Putin noted that the New START treaty expires on Feb. 5 and recalled Russia’s Sept. 22, 2025 offer to extend central limits for one year as voluntary self‑restraints, which has received no official U.S. reply. Putin, Ushakov said, stressed that Russia will act “in a balanced and responsible manner” based on overall security conditions and remains open to negotiations on strategic stability. (Kremlin, 02.04.26)

Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

• U.S. and Russian negotiators in Abu Dhabi have reached a draft “handshake” deal to keep observing the limits and verification rules of the New START nuclear treaty for at least six months after its formal expiration, Axios reports, pending final approval from Presidents Trump and Putin. Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner led the talks alongside Ukraine negotiations; the arrangement would not be legally binding but is meant to prevent an immediate arms race while a possible updated agreement is discussed. (Axios, 02.05.26)
• Donald Trump called for negotiating a new, “modernized” nuclear arms control treaty with Russia after the expiration of the New START agreement, rejecting any extension. Trump said a replacement treaty should be long-term and potentially include China, warning that New START was “badly negotiated” and allegedly violated. The treaty, signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, capped deployed warheads at 1,550 and was the last binding limit on U.S. and Russian arsenals. (Financial Times, 02.05.26)
  • Donald Trump wrote in Truth Sovial on 02.05.26: “I have stopped Nuclear Wars from breaking out across the World between Pakistan and India, Iran and Israel, and Russia and Ukraine. Rather than extend “NEW START” (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” (Truth Sovial, 02.05.26)
• Marco Rubio insisted any future [post-New START] agreement must include China, which Beijing has refused. Russia signaled readiness for talks but warned the lapse leaves both sides unconstrained for the first time in over 50 years. (Wall Street Journal, 02.05.26; Washington Post, 02.06.26)
• Russia signaled concern over New START’s expiration but said it would continue acting “responsibly” on strategic stability, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Moscow had suspended participation in inspections in 2023 while still observing warhead limits. The White House said no interim agreement exists to maintain the treaty’s constraints during talks. (Financial Times, 02.05.26)
• In the arms control world, many agree with elements of Mr. Trump’s argument that New START aged poorly and that a new treaty needs added participants. “You wouldn’t negotiate the same treaty again,” Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear inspection body, said in an interview in the agency’s Vienna headquarters. “There are new technologies that are not covered by the treaty—hypersonic missiles, undersea nuclear weapons, space weapons. And there are many other countries that, for one reason or another, feel now as if they may need a nuclear arsenal of their own.” (New York Times, 02.05.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• Russia and the United States agreed on the need to negotiate a new nuclear arms control treaty after the expiration of New START, the Kremlin said. Talks reportedly discussed extending core limits and resuming military-to-military dialogue, though Moscow rejected informal, nonbinding arrangements and urged a legally binding successor agreement. "There is an understanding, which was discussed in Abu Dhabi, that both sides will act responsibly and will recognize the need to begin discussions on this issue as soon as possible," spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about the end of the New START treaty. (The Moscow Times, 02.06.26)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Italy says it has foiled cyberattacks by pro-Russian “hacktivist” group NoName 057 targeting Milano–Cortina Winter Olympics websites and local hotels with DDoS attacks ahead of Friday’s opening ceremony. The National Cybersecurity Agency, backed by police and the organizers, is defending Games infrastructure amid a broader surge in Russia‑linked cyber activity across Europe, including attempts against Italy’s foreign ministry and critical services such as hospitals and water systems. (Financial Times, 02.05.26)
• Former Spanish university professor Enrique Arias Gil, wanted in Spain for alleged cyberterrorism and aiding pro-Russia hacking group NoName057, says he has been granted political asylum in Russia and is now a recognized refugee. He arrived in Russia in 2024 on a state-funded grant and is reportedly finalizing paperwork for Russian citizenship. (AFP, 02.06.26) 

Energy exports:

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• The EU is considering scrapping its price cap on Russian oil and instead banning European maritime services—such as insurance and transport—for shipments of Russian crude at any price, in a new sanctions package over the war in Ukraine. The proposal, which faces resistance from some member states, would tighten enforcement and further cut Moscow’s oil revenues, alongside new restrictions on banks, energy firms and sanctions evasion routes. (Bloomberg, 01.30.26)

Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026

• Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell by almost a quarter in 2025 as sanctions tightened and global supplies surged, pushing the Kremlin into sustained budget deficits, higher taxes and rising debt. Russian crude now sells at steep discounts, averaging about $39 a barrel in December, while Ukraine’s drone strikes on refineries and tankers have worsened fuel shortages. With war costs estimated at $170 billion a year—roughly 30% of the budget—Moscow is squeezing businesses and consumers harder even as the economy stagnates. (New York Times, 01.31.26)

Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

• Crude oil prices edged higher as traders anticipated that India will rapidly cut purchases of Russian crude under a new trade deal with the United States, which lowers U.S. tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for halting Russian oil imports. Analysts say Russia will struggle to redirect roughly 1–1.3 million barrels per day now going to India, with China the only plausible alternative buyer but already near record intake, forcing deep discounts on Russian crude. (Wall Street Journal, 02.03.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026

• India’s balancing act between Russia and the United States has grown more strained amid U.S. pressure to curb purchases of Russian oil. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has faced tariff pressure from President Donald Trump, though Trump announced on Feb. 2 that the U.S. will cut its “reciprocal” duty on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and drop an additional punitive tariff tied to India’s Russian oil imports. The Kremlin said it has received no notice from India about curbing oil purchases. (Bloomberg; MT/AFP; ISW, 02.03.26)
• China is once again the biggest buyer of Moscow’s barrels as its purchases rise while flows to India plunge to the lowest in more than three years. Volumes averaged 3.27 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 1, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 02.03.26)
• Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries dropped to a six-month low in January, allowing the Kremlin to increase fuel supplies to the domestic market and resume gasoline exports. Ukraine hit just three Russian refineries during the month, down from 11 in December, according to statements from officials in both nations. All the affected plants were small, independent operations. Together, they account for less than 7% of Russia’s typical January output, according to Bloomberg estimates. (Bloomberg, 02.03.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

• The United States has sealed a deal to begin shipping liquefied natural gas to Ukraine via the so‑called Vertical Gas Corridor, using pipelines through Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova. Greek joint venture Atlantic-See LNG Trade S.A. plans the first delivery in March 2026; the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv said the route will help replace Russian gas in Europe and strengthen Ukraine’s energy security by opening a new channel for U.S. energy exports into the region. (ISW, 02.04.26)
• The Russian government’s oil revenues collapsed to the lowest in more than five years in January as weaker global prices, steeper discounts for the nation’s barrels, and a stronger currency took a toll on the budget. Oil-related taxes halved to 281.7 billion rubles ($3.7 billion) last month from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations based on finance ministry data published Wednesday. Combined oil and gas revenue also declined by 50%, to 393.3 billion rubles. (Bloomberg, 02.04.26)

Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

• India has welcomed a new U.S.–India trade deal but has stopped short of confirming President Donald Trump’s claim that New Delhi agreed to halt purchases of Russian oil. Analysts say a full cutoff is unlikely, with India instead expected to gradually reduce imports while boosting supplies from the U.S., the Middle East, or possibly Venezuela, consistent with its long-standing policy of strategic autonomy. A sharp reduction would deepen Moscow’s fiscal strain and force Indian refiners to replace discounted Russian “medium sour” crude with costlier alternatives. Despite U.S. pressure, analysts note India has become heavily reliant on cheap Russian oil since 2022, making rapid diversification difficult. Recent widening discounts on Russia’s Urals crude—now more than $10 per barrel below Brent—may further incentivize continued purchases despite political signals to the contrary. (Financial Times; Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg, 02.04.26)
• Europe’s reliance on its two biggest providers of LNG surged to a record last month, stoking concern that the region is still failing to diversify. The European Union got more than 80% of its liquefied natural gas from the U.S. and Russia in January, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 02.05.26)
• Western pressure on Russia’s oil exports is intensifying as the EU considers a full ban on maritime services—including insurance and transport—for Russian crude, targeting Moscow’s “shadow fleet.” Russian oil revenues fell about 50% year-on-year in January, with discounts exceeding $20 per barrel after U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and India scaling back purchases. If enforced, the EU measures could affect roughly 3.5 million barrels per day, nearly half of Russia’s exports transiting European waters. Russian officials privately warn of a potential economic crisis by summer, citing rising deficits, banking stress, inflation above official figures, and growing business closures, even as the Kremlin shows little sign of moderating its war aims. (Washington Post, 02.04.26)
• Shell Plc will pause investment in Kazakhstan as it navigates legal claims from the OPEC+ nation against oil majors that could stretch into the billions of dollars, Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan said. (Bloomberg, 02.05.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• The European Union is pushing a full ban on maritime services for ships carrying Russian crude oil, replacing the G7 price-cap regime, as part of its proposed 20th sanctions package. The measures would bar insurance and other services regardless of oil price, add 43 shadow-fleet vessels, sanction 20 Russian banks, and expand export and import bans worth over €900 million. Ursula von der Leyen said the goal is to further slash Russia’s energy revenues and force Moscow toward negotiations. (Financial Times, 02.06.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

• Medvedev said Donald Trump is “flesh of the flesh of the American system” and fully reflects the will of U.S. voters, adding that during Trump’s term Moscow believed Washington had “sent a couple of [nuclear] submarines somewhere” whose whereabouts Russia could not determine. (TASS, 02.02.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

• Former Anti-Corruption Foundation director Ivan Zhdanov said the FBI has had access to his personal Gmail account since 2022, after Google notified him in 2025 that it had granted access under a court order. Zhdanov noted that his name appears three times in the newly released U.S. “Epstein files,” in internal FBI briefings citing Reuters coverage of Alexei Navalny’s poisoning, and suggested U.S. authorities may have been seeking information related to that case. (Meduza, 02.04.26)

Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

• U.S. European Command said U.S. and Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi agreed to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue, suspended since autumn 2021, with EUCOM commander Gen. Alexus Grynkewich authorized to engage directly with Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov to avoid miscalculation and support de-escalation. Following trilateral talks with Ukraine, the channel is intended to aid coordination toward a potential ceasefire. (Meduza, Financial Times, 02.05.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• Newly released U.S. court and Justice Department materials—the “Epstein files”—detail Jeffrey Epstein’s efforts in the 2010s to cultivate ties with senior Russian officials and businessmen, including figures linked to security services, state funds, and Kremlin-backed youth movements. Epstein repeatedly expressed interest in meeting Vladimir Putin and claimed related contacts, though no evidence shows such a meeting occurred. Reporting by RFE/RL, DW, Meduza, and others cites references to the late UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin, former MP Ilya Ponomarev, tycoon Vladislav Doronin, and a Krasnodar modeling agency whose founder denies any link. (Washington Post, RFE/RL; DW; Meduza; New York Times; Newsweek; The Insider, 01.30–02.06.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Putin admitted Russian GDP growth slowed to 1% in 2025 from over 4% in 2023–24 but blamed the drop on deliberate anti‑inflation policy while downplaying the impact of war spending and sanctions. The Kremlin raised VAT from 20% to 22% on Jan. 1 to plug budget gaps caused by huge defense outlays, a move that has helped drive food prices up by as much as 25%, suggesting actual inflation is higher than the official 5.6–6.4% range Putin cites. (ISW, 02.03.26)
• Russian officials are concerned that budget spending this year will again exceed planned levels if additional outlays on the war are needed, according to people familiar with the matter. They’re scrambling to find new sources of income of as much as 1.2 trillion rubles ($16 billion) to balance a key budget indicator. That’s equivalent to an additional 0.5% of gross domestic product beyond the planned deficit for this year of 1.6% of GDP, amid declining revenue from energy sales and the impact of an unexpectedly strong ruble, they said. (Bloomberg, 01.31.26)
• Russia’s 2026 budget deficit could swell to 3.5–4.4% of GDP—nearly triple the official 1.6% target—as oil and gas revenues fall an estimated 18% below plan due to shrinking Indian purchases, steep discounts on Russian crude, and a much stronger ruble, according to unpublished estimates from a government‑linked think tank. With just 4.1 trillion rubles in reserves, analysts warn these buffers could be largely depleted within a year unless policy changes, even as the Kremlin insists on high wartime spending. (Reuters, 02.04.26)
• Russia’s gold reserves have surpassed $400 billion for the first time, reaching $403.4 billion at the end of January and accounting for nearly 45% of its $892 billion in total international reserves. The surge reflects rising global gold prices and Moscow’s shift from Western currencies toward hard assets following sanctions and asset freezes. (bne IntelliNews, 02.06.26)
• Russia saw a sharp rise in utility outages during January, with power, heating and water cuts across the country up twofold year-on-year, the exiled outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe reported Monday. The newspaper counted 1,788 reports of disruptions nationwide in January compared with 983 in the same month a year earlier. Power outages were the most frequent, accounting for 723 reports, followed by heating cuts (552) and water supply failures (513). (MT/AFP, 02.02.26)
• Russian mortgage lending hit a record 421 billion rubles in January 2026, 3.5 times more than a year earlier, driven mainly by family mortgages issued before stricter borrower requirements take effect; experts expect subsidized lending to decline as high rates restrain market‑rate programs. (Kommersant via Telegram, 02.06.26)
• Russian education officials have eliminated 47,000 paid spots for university students as part of a wider government effort to stymie the oversupply of degrees in several fields. Science and Education Minister Valery Falkov said Wednesday the cuts had primarily affected degree programs like economics, law, business management and advertising at private universities. (MT/AFP, 02.06.26)
• Most Russians do not expect major social or economic upheaval in 2026, according to a new Levada Center poll. About 43% consider it possible that the “special military operation” in Ukraine will end this year (6% “definitely yes,” 37% “rather yes”), while 38% think this is unlikely and 18% are unsure. From the list of potential events in 2026, respondents most often saw an end to the operation (43%) and the start of an economic crisis (42%) as possible; slightly fewer expected an armed clash with the U.S. and NATO (29%), ethnic clashes (27%), or mass protests (27%). (Levada, 02.03.26
• President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 4 dismissed his longtime ally and former Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov as special representative for environmental protection and transportation. (MT/AFP, 02.04.26) When Putin was choosing in 2007 or so between Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev as Russia’s next president, Ivanov looked like a favorite exhuming confidence ins his ability to rule Russia for years to come. However, come 2008, Putin publicly chose Medvedev, as he must have decided he needed an interim caretaker in between his presidential rule, not a full-fledged successor. Ivanov—whom Putin described as one of the people he felt a sense of camaraderie toward/with, has been dismissed, while Medvedev is still in the game, having reinvented himself as a hawk thanks to his superior political instincts.
• For nearly 20 years, Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov has been a pillar of Vladimir Putin’s rule, running Chechnya as a brutal, loyal “criminal state” in exchange for wide autonomy. Now reports of Kadyrov’s serious illness and a major car crash injuring his 18‑year‑old heir Adam have thrown Moscow’s succession plans into doubt. Analysts warn the Kremlin’s carefully built power architecture in Chechnya is fragile, and a Kadyrov exit could risk instability in a heavily armed region. (Financial Times, 02.01.26)
• Medvedev stressed there can be “no forgiveness” for certain crimes against Russia, including war crimes and terrorist acts, arguing that impunity would desecrate the memory of victims and that such offenses should have no statute of limitations. (TASS, 02.02.26)
• Europe's top human rights court ruled Tuesday that Russia subjected opposition activist Alexi Navalny to "inhuman treatment" following his arrest in 2021, three years before his death at an Arctic prison (MT/AFP, 02.03.26)
• Russian authorities arrested St. Petersburg scientist Aleksei Dudarev on charges of treason, alleging that his articles in international scientific journals could have been accessed by Norwegian intelligence. Human rights group First Department said the publications were open-access and that Dudarev never had clearance to state secrets. (Meduza, 02.06.26)

Defense and aerospace:

• Medvedev said drones have “irreversibly” changed the nature of warfare and that no one will return to pre‑UAV doctrines, as all major militaries now race to catch up in unmanned systems. (TASS, 02.02.26)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian investigators have opened a major bribery case against Nikolai Posokhov, head of the “Protective Measures Improvement” research center at Russia’s civil defense institute VNIIGOChS, and deputy director Igor Sosunov. Posokhov, under house arrest, is known for developing the mobile “Kub-M” bunker, advertised as protection against nuclear blasts. Sosunov, remanded in custody, is a decorated Chernobyl liquidator. (Meduza, 01.31.26)
• Moscow authorities have detained a 16-year-old, identified as Artyom A., on suspicion of murdering Alexey Belyaev, a deputy head of Roskomnadzor’s Internet censorship department, outside the agency’s headquarters on Jan. 19. According to leaks cited by Meduza and Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, investigators say the teen was a staunch opponent of Roskomnadzor and stabbed Belyaev out of political or ideological hatred, while state and pro-Kremlin media were urged to keep silent. (Meduza, 01.31.26)
• The Russian captain of a cargo ship has been convicted of manslaughter over a fatal North Sea collision with a U.S.-registered tanker carrying aviation fuel for the U.S. Air Force. A UK jury found that Captain Vladimir Motin, 59, showed gross negligence when the Solong struck the anchored Stena Immaculate off the Yorkshire coast on March 10, 2025, killing 38-year-old Filipino crewman Mark Angelo Pernia. Prosecutors said Motin had been on a collision course for over 30 minutes and had disabled a key bridge alarm system. (Financial Times, 02.03.26)
• Cypriot authorities confirmed that a body found on Avdimou beach in January is Vladislav Baumgertner, 53, former CEO of Russian potash giant Uralkali, who had been living in Limassol and reported missing on Jan. 7. Baumgertner was previously detained in Belarus in 2013 over a high‑profile potash dispute, then extradited to Russia on abuse‑of‑office charges; an investigation into the cause and circumstances of his death is ongoing. (Washington Post, 02.04.26)
• Russia’s Federal Customs Service said Thursday that it thwarted an attempt to smuggle a large meteorite fragment out of the country. The fragment, weighing 2.5 metric tons, was discovered at a port in St. Petersburg inside a shipping container destined for the United Kingdom. A forensic examination later confirmed that the fragment came from the Aletai meteorite and has an estimated value of 323 million rubles ($4.2 million). (MT/AFP, 02.05.26)
• Russia’s Belgorod region recorded a record 199 rape cases in 2025, triple the previous year and the highest since at least 2008, according to independent data. Analysts say the spike may be linked to the war and increased military presence, but note insufficient public data to confirm causation and low rates of cases reaching court. (Meduza, 02.06.26)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia and Myanmar strengthened military ties this week, as President Vladimir Putin’s top security aide visited the Southeast Asian nation after the ruling junta concluded an election that Western democracies and the United Nations have described as flawed. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu is the first high-level foreign official to visit since the vote concluded last month. (Bloomberg, 02.03.26)
• Russian companies are being pushed out of Venezuela following the United States’ capture of President Nicolás Maduro last month, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said, suggesting the move was driven by pressure from Washington. (MT/AFP, 02.05.26)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday that economic and military "pressure" on its ally Cuba was "unacceptable," remarks made after the Trump administration escalated its threats against the communist-run island nation. (MT/AFP, 02.02.26)
• Deputy chair of RF Security Council Medvedev accused Finland of “wiping out” post‑Cold War good relations and warned Helsinki not to “joke” about ties with Russia, recalling how the USSR “crushed” Finland in World War II and saying Finns should “thank” Lenin for independence. ISW says such rhetoric, combined with Russia’s expansion of military infrastructure near the Finnish border, is part of a long‑term information campaign to justify possible future confrontation with NATO, though a full‑scale invasion is seen as unlikely now. (ISW, 02.02.26)
• Russia remains formally banned from the Olympics four years after invading Ukraine, but Russian athletes continue to appear in large numbers through neutral status or by competing for other countries. At the Milan–Cortina Games, 13 Russians are registered as neutrals, while several dozen Russian-born athletes represent foreign teams, highlighting the limits of sports isolation despite ongoing sanctions. (Wall Street Journal, 02.06.26)

Ukraine:

• In Ukraine, an illegal border crossing to Romania was prevented. A group of men planned to cross the state border, and the organizer was to receive the equivalent of 45,000 euros for this. However, the operation failed—border guards detained the violators just a few hundred meters from the border… Law enforcement officers established that five individuals from Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk regions, and Kyiv were supposed to pay the organizer a total sum equivalent to €45,000. Part of the funds had already been transferred in advance. (Antikor, 02.06.26)
• Ukraine’s anti-corruption authorities sent to court a case involving the alleged embezzlement of 246 million hryvnias ($5.73 million USD) during development of the DZVIN automated command system for the Armed Forces. Investigators said repeated changes to technical requirements inflated costs and produced a system that failed to meet NATO standards. Several former senior General Staff officers and a private contractor are charged. (Korrespondent.net, 02.06.26)
• The former head of the State Border Guard of Ukraine has been dismissed from the Ukrainian military following his being charged in a bribery scandal, Suspilne reported on Feb. 6. Serhiy Deineko, who headed the State Border Guard from 2019 to Jan. 4, 2026, was charged last month in relation to a 204,000 euro bribery scheme. In 2023 border guards received at least 204,000 euros for facilitating the smuggling of cigarettes through the border between Ukraine and the European Union, Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) said. The smugglers used vehicles with fake diplomatic license plates whose passengers were relatives of Ukrainian diplomats, according to the NABU. (Kyiv Independent, 02.06.26)
• Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) have uncovered fresh evidence of alleged corrupt activities by Member of Parliament Anatoliy Hunko. He is suspected of orchestrating a scheme to misappropriate property from the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences (NAAS), causing losses estimated at over 30 million hryvnias. According to the investigation, from 2021 to 2023, Hunko and a group of accomplices illegally sold more than 2,500 tons of grain. They used state-controlled land to grow the agricultural products for this scheme. (Inkorr.com, 02.05.26)
• An investigation by Ukrainska Pravda found that former presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak retains significant informal influence despite his reported resignation, with loyalists still holding senior posts. The outlet details continued political and business ties, amid anti-corruption probes by NABU and SAPO, raising questions about whether Ukraine’s power structure has meaningfully changed. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.06.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• U.S. Vice President JD Vance is set to visit Armenia and Azerbaijan, signaling renewed U.S. strategic engagement in the South Caucasus and support for a transport corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan via Armenia. The route, brokered by Donald Trump, aims to curb Russian influence but raises security risks amid tensions with Iran and growing repression in Azerbaijan, where activists urge Washington to address political prisoners. (European Pravda, 02.06.26)
• A military court in Baku has sentenced former Nagorno-Karabakh president Arayik Harutyunyan and four other ex-leaders of the self-proclaimed republic—ex-defense commander Levon Mnatsakanyan, his deputy David Manukyan, ex–foreign minister David Babayan, and former parliamentary speaker David Ishkhanyan—to life imprisonment on charges including aggressive war, genocide, terrorism, and violent seizure of power, while two earlier presidents, Arkadi Ghukasyan and Bako Sahakyan, received 20-year terms and eight other officials were given 15–19 years. (Meduza, 02.05.26)
• Armenia’s Investigative Committee has officially named two Russian citizens, Karina Iminova and Said‑Khamzat Baisarov, as suspects in the killing of 23‑year‑old Chechen woman Aishat Baymuradova in Yerevan. Investigators believe they acted on instructions from an unidentified person and say Armenia asked Russia for help in December 2025 but received no reply. Baisarov is thought to be a nephew of businessman Ruslan Baisarov, an ally of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov; Baymuradova’s body still has not been released for burial. (Meduza, 02.04.26)
• Russia’s embassy in Abkhazia said it will stop issuing Russian internal passports in the breakaway Georgian region and move the process onto Russian territory, citing “respect” for local authorities. The reversal follows local opposition and legal concerns over newly opened Russian Interior Ministry passport and driver’s license offices. Source: (The Moscow Times, 02.06.26)
• Poland’s military said objects “highly likely” to be balloons crossed into Polish airspace from Belarus on the night of Jan. 30–31, prompting temporary airspace restrictions over Podlaskie Voivodeship. It was the second such incident in 72 hours and part of a pattern of Belarus‑launched balloons violating Polish and Lithuanian airspace since October 2025. (ISW, 01.31.26)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Graham Allison, a Harvard political scientist who wrote the first major book about the Cuban missile crisis, the closest the Soviet Union and the United States came to a nuclear exchange, noted that “if you told anyone in 1945 that we’re going to see 80 years without another use of nuclear weapons in war, people would have said you’re out of your mind.” (NYT, 02.05.26)
• “Russia’s playbook is remarkably consistent,” explains Dr. Fiona Hill, who serves on the Harvard University Board of Overseers. “They don’t necessarily want NATO to disappear entirely—a functioning, albeit strained, alliance provides a useful foil. What they do want is to sow doubt, to erode trust amongst members, and to demonstrate that the U.S. commitment isn’t ironclad.” (Memesita, 02.04.26)

Endnotes

1. Sources used: Axios, 02.05.26, Financial Times, 02.05.26, Truth Social, 02.05.26, Wall Street Journal, 02.05.26, Washington Post, 02.06.26, Financial Times, 02.05.26 New York Times, 02.05.26, The Moscow Times, 02.06.26.
2. For experts’ takes on New START’s expiration, see RM’s "Is There Life After New START?" and the Belfer Center’s "New START Expires: What Happens Next?".
3. Sources used: Meduza, 02.05.26; Financial Times, 02.05.26, EUCOM, 02.05.26.
4. Sources used: Meduza, 02.06.26, Financial Times, 02.03.26, Financial Times, 02.03.26, ISW, 02.03.26, RFE/RL, 02.04.26, Meduza, 02.04.26, Financial Times, 02.04.26, New York Times, 02.04.26, ISW, 02.04.26, New York Times, 02.04.26, Korrespondent.net, 02.05.26, New York Times, 02.05.26, RBC.ua, 02.05.26, RBC.ua, 02.05.26, RFE/RL, 02.05.26, Korrespondent.net, 02.06.26, RBC-Ukraine, 02.06.26, RBC-Ukraine, 02.06.26, ISW, 02.05.26, Meduza, 02.06.26, Ukrainska Pravda, 02.06.26.
5. For more estimates of Russian and Ukrainian casualties, see the latest issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine war card.
6. See endnote 2.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI was used in production of this digest.

* Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: FILE - In this Tuesday, May 9, 2017 file photo, Russian Topol M intercontinental ballistic missile launcher rolls along Red Square during the Victory Day military parade  (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)