Russia in Review, Jan. 28-Feb. 4, 2022

This Week’s Highlights

  • With plans to deploy nearly 3,000 American troops to Eastern Europe amid the standoff with Russia over Ukraine, the Biden administration has informed the Kremlin it is willing to discuss giving Russia a way to verify there aren’t offensive Tomahawk cruise missiles stationed at sensitive NATO missile-defense bases in Romania and Poland, “people familiar with the matter” have told Bloomberg. The U.S. proposal is aimed at allaying Moscow’s concerns that the launchers could be used to target Russia. President Vladimir Putin publicly accused the West on Feb. 1 of ignoring Moscow’s security concerns but also said that he hoped “dialogue will be continued” and that the Kremlin was studying U.S. and NATO replies to Moscow’s recent proposals to check NATO military activity in the region, The Washington Post and other media report.
  • President Xi Jinping of China and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Beijing on Feb. 4 ahead of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, in a highly choreographed display of solidarity that presents a continuing challenge to the United States’ dominance on the world stage, according to The New York Times and The Guardian. Putin unveiled new Russian oil and gas deals with China worth an estimated $117.5 billion at the meeting, Reuters reports. But analysts told The Washington Post that China and Russia are divided on many issues and there are risks for China in a Ukraine war, so Russia shouldn’t count too much on Beijing’s support.
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said his country will never give special status to parts of Donbass that have been under the control of Moscow-backed separatists since April 2014, RFE/RL reports. "None of Ukraine's regions will have a right to veto the state's decisions. That is engraved in stone! Therefore, no special status as Russia is considering it, no veto right will be given," Kuleba told the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita in an interview published Feb. 2, referring to the Minsk peace accords. 
  • The Wall Street Journal on Feb. 4 published a feature from the Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions, documenting how areas that were once the engines of the country’s economy and dominated its politics have turned into impoverished, depopulated enclaves that increasingly rely on Russian subsidies to survive. Bloomberg, in turn, reports from Ukraine’s southern coast, giving a bracing sense of what capturing even this swathe of territory—let alone all of Ukraine—would involve and why so many Ukrainians believe it won’t happen.  
  • Apple has opened a representative office in Russia, Moscow’s communications watchdog said Feb. 4, becoming the first company to comply with the Kremlin's new rules requiring foreign technology firms to localize their operations in the country, according to The Moscow Times.
  • With the legal door to America effectively closed, Russians are increasingly making use of the Mexican border route to enter the U.S., The Moscow Times reports. According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, 4,103 Russian citizens were detained at the border in the year to October 2021, a tenfold increase on the year before. One Florida-based immigration lawyer singled out Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan—all of which have seen recent political unrest and repression—as particularly well-represented among migrants attempting to cross the border.

I. SPECIAL SECTION: Ukraine-Russia-NATO Crisis

  • China’s Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin of Russia have signed a joint statement calling on the West to “abandon the ideologized approaches of the Cold War,” as the two leaders showcased their warming relationship amid a tense standoff with the West before the Beijing Winter Olympics. In the statement, Putin and Xi avoided mentioning the Ukraine conflict by name but called on NATO to rule out expansion in Eastern Europe, denounced the formation of security blocs in the Asia Pacific region and criticized the AUKUS trilateral security pact among the U.S., U.K. and Australia. The statement amounted to a rhetorical challenge to the U.S.-led order, mentioning Russia and China’s status as “world powers” and offering joint positions on a range of issues. (The Guardian, 02.04.22, The Washington Post, 02.04.22)
    • Closer coordination between China and Russia complicates Biden administration strategies to isolate Putin and punish him and Russia with economic sanctions should Russian forces attack Ukraine. Just hours before the summit in Beijing, the U.S. warned China against helping Russia dodge potential sanctions related to the crisis. Washington and its allies “have an array of tools” that can be deployed against “foreign companies, including those in China,” that attempt to evade potential punitive measures against Russia, the State Department said Feb. 3. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.02.22, The Washington Post, 02.04.22)
    • There are risks for China in a Ukraine war, so Russia shouldn’t count too much on Beijing’s support, said M. Taylor Fravel, director of the security studies program at MIT. China buys a significant amount of military equipment from Ukraine and would be caught in the middle, he said. “China has been willing to a point to try to provide diplomatic support for Russia,” Fravel said. “But China doesn’t want to see armed conflict erupt.” (The Washington Post, 02.01.22)
    • See “China-Russia: Allied or aligned?” section below for more on this topic
  • The Biden administration announced on Feb. 2 the deployment of nearly 3,000 American troops to Eastern Europe in the coming days amid a standoff with Russia over Ukraine, moving to shield NATO allies from potential spillover if war erupts. Around 1,000 U.S. soldiers in Germany are being sent to Romania and another 2,000 stationed in the U.S. are being flown to Poland and Germany. (Reuters, 02.02.22, The Moscow Times, 02.03.22)
    • The Kremlin on Feb. 3 urged the United States to stop “escalating tensions” after the announcement. (The Moscow Times, 02.03.22)
    • President Vladimir Putin’s demands to effectively dismantle NATO in its current form as a condition for Russian de-escalation near Ukraine appear to have had the opposite effect, with the often fractious alliance sending reinforcements to the area Putin wants NATO to vacate. Six F-15 Strike Eagle warplanes arrived in Estonia last week from their base in Britain, marking the first time U.S. warplanes have been attached to the small Baltic air policing mission patrolling the only sliver of NATO airspace directly bordering Russia. (The Washington Post, 02.01.22, Financial Times, 02.04.22)
    • Since last fall, the U.S. has been quiet about its military aid to Kyiv, merely acknowledging sending arms that had been scheduled for delivery long ago. That has changed now. American cargo planes bringing weaponry and ammunition are arriving openly at Kyiv’s Borispol airport. And the Ukrainian army is making a point of showing media these newly delivered weapons at a military training area. In the last two weeks, seven U.S. cargo planes carrying a total of about 585 tons of military assistance have landed in Kyiv. (The New York Times, 02.04.22)
    • Lithuania’s president called for Germany and the U.S. to commit more troops to his Baltic country and send a signal to Moscow. (Financial Times, 02.03.22)
  • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said NATO has no intention of sending troops to Ukraine if Russia invades. "There is a difference between being a NATO member and being a strong and highly valued partner as Ukraine," he told the BBC on Jan. 30. But Moscow said it wants more clarity on exactly what security measures NATO does plan to implement in Eastern Europe. (Voice of America, 01.30.22)
  • U.S. and Ukrainian officials say at least 130,000 Russian troops are at Ukraine’s borders; independent experts agree. The force is not strong enough to seize and hold significant territory, they say, but battle-ready forces are growing. Iskander-M rocket units were deployed this week, equipped with missiles capable of striking almost anywhere in Ukraine, including Kyiv. Ukraine’s military has now grown especially concerned about what they say is a new buildup in Crimea. (The New York Times, 02.04.22)
    • U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned on Jan. 28 that Russia had amassed sufficient military assets along the Ukrainian border to launch an invasion at any moment, a build-up that has given the Kremlin a “range of options,” including an attack aimed at occupying the entire country. (Financial Times, 01.28.22)
    • Ukraine’s defense minister sought again on Feb. 3 to project calm, saying the probability of an invasion was “low,” and he welcomed a change by U.S. officials, who have stopped using the term “imminent” when describing the risk of a Russian attack. Oleksii Reznikov said “there are no grounds for panic, fear, flight or the packing of bags.” The minister put the number of Russian troops near Ukraine at 115,000. (AP, 02.03.22)
    • A 700-kilometer drive along Ukraine’s southern coast gives a bracing sense of what capturing even this swathe of territory—let alone all of Ukraine—would involve. It’s the reason so many Ukrainians believe it won’t happen. The seemingly endless expanse of open fields with a population of some 8 million people would be challenging to hold. Then there’s the potentially ruinous price of occupying a part of one of Europe’s poorest countries at a time when Russia would be under intense international sanctions. (Bloomberg, 02.02.22)
    • As military analysts warn of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, they also are keeping an eye on the weather. Temperatures, cloud cover or even the radioactivity in the soil could determine when and where Russian troops make a possible move. (The Washington Post, 02.04.22)
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was in Minsk on Feb. 3, checking on preparations for major Russia-Belarus war games scheduled for Feb. 10-20. Shoigu met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who said the drills’ goal was “to reinforce the border with Ukraine.” (AP, 02.03.22)
    • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Russian troop numbers in Belarus are likely to climb to 30,000, with the backing of special forces, advanced fighter jets, Iskander short-range ballistic missiles and S-400 ground-to-air missile defense systems: “Over the last days, we have seen a significant movement of Russian military forces into Belarus. This is the biggest Russian deployment there since the Cold War.” (AP, 02.03.22)
  • President Vladimir Putin hit back publicly against the West on Feb. 1, accusing the United States and NATO of using Ukraine to hem in Russia and ignoring Moscow’s security concerns. Putin also said that he hoped “dialogue will be continued” and that the Kremlin was studying U.S. and NATO replies to Moscow’s recent proposals seeking to check NATO military activity in the region. The public remarks were Putin’s first about the standoff since a year-end news conference on Dec. 23. (The Washington Post, 02.01.22)
    • “Let’s imagine that Ukraine is a member of NATO, is stuffed full of weapons, that modern strike systems are stationed there just like in Poland and Romania, and [Ukraine] begins an operation in Crimea,” Putin said, according to Russian-language media. “Are we supposed to go to war with the NATO bloc? Has anyone at all thought about that at all? Seems not.” (Russia Matters, 02.02.22)
    • Putin also formulated demands that the Russian-language news site The Bell interpreted as possibly an acceptable compromise for Moscow with the West. Noting that NATO’s open-door policy was not set down in any legally binding documents, Putin said the U.S. and NATO could tell any non-member, “including Ukraine, ‘We want to ensure your security, we value it, we respect your aspirations, but we cannot accept you [as a member] because we have other international obligations taken on earlier’”—seemingly a reference to the oft-repeated contention that Russia was promised in 1990 that NATO would not expand eastward. (Russia Matters, 02.02.22)
    • Putin also said the U.S. was trying to pull Russia into armed conflict over Ukraine that Russia did not want. White House press secretary Jen Psaki reacted derisively to Putin’s comments, comparing them to “when the fox is screaming from the top of the henhouse that he’s scared of the chickens.” (The New York Times, 02.01.22)
  • The Biden administration has informed the Kremlin it is willing to discuss giving Russia a way to verify there aren’t offensive Tomahawk cruise missiles stationed at sensitive NATO missile-defense bases in Romania and Poland, according to people familiar with the matter. The U.S. proposal is aimed at allaying Moscow’s concerns the launchers could be used to target Russia. One person added any agreement would only happen after discussion with allies, especially Poland and Romania, and would need to be reciprocated with a number of Russian bases housing ground-launched weapons. The Spanish newspaper El Pais on Feb. 2 published documents reflecting similar proposals, which it says are the responses from Washington and NATO to security demands recently made by Russia. (Bloomberg, 02.01.22, RFE/RL, 02.02.22)
  • U.S. officials are coordinating with European allies to determine the most effective ways to help Ukraine fend off potential Russian cyberattacks while seeking to protect digital systems in their own countries. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.02.22) See “Cyber security” section below for details.
  • The U.S. accused the Kremlin on Feb. 3 of an elaborate plot to fabricate an attack by Ukrainian forces that Russia could use as a pretext to take military action against its neighbor. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the scheme included production of a graphic propaganda video that would show staged explosions and use corpses and actors depicting grieving mourners. The U.S. has not provided detailed information backing up the claims, saying it needs to protect sensitive sources and intelligence-gathering methods. This was the latest example of the Biden administration divulging intelligence findings as a tactic to attempt to stop Russian disinformation efforts and foil what it says is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s effort to lay the groundwork for military action. (AP, 02.03.22, The New York Times, 02.03.22)
    • Britain has high confidence that Russia is seeking to engineer a pretext to invade Ukraine, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman said Feb. 4, referring to the U.S. report. (Reuters, 02.04.22)
    • Russia on Feb. 4 rejected the U.S. claims that it is plotting a false flag operation to justify an attack on Ukraine, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov calling them “nonsense” and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov telling reporters: “I’d recommend not to take anyone’s word for it, especially the State Department, when it comes to these issues.” (The Moscow Times, 02.04.22)
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Kyiv this week was part of his effort to broker a solution to Ukraine’s crisis with Russia, while asserting Turkey’s role as an aspiring power. Erdogan offered on Feb. 3 to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine. “I have stressed that we would be happy to host a summit meeting,” he said after about three hours of talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “Instead of fueling the fire, we act with the logical aim of reducing the tensions.” (The Wall Street Journal, 02.03.22, AP, 02.03.22)
    • Turkey and Ukraine signed a free-trade agreement on Feb. 3 and finalized a deal for Ukraine to manufacture Turkish armed drones. Ukraine has bought dozens of the Bayraktar TB2 drones since 2019 and used one for the first time last year to destroy a separatist artillery unit in the Donbas region. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said a new plant under construction near Kyiv will equip the drones with Ukrainian-made engines. (Bloomberg, 02.03.22, The Wall Street Journal, 02.03.22)
    • Military cooperation between Ankara and Kyiv isn’t intended to target Russia and won’t be disrupted in order to please it, Erdogan’s spokesman Fahrettin Altun said. (Bloomberg, 02.03.22)
  • French President Emmanuel Macron heads to talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week hoping to ensure Europe gets a say in broader U.S.-Russian negotiations over Ukraine, but risks embarrassment if he returns empty-handed. France, Russia and Ukraine have had numerous phone conversations over the past 10 days that culminated on Feb. 4 with Macron's office confirming that he would travel to Moscow and Kyiv on Feb. 7 and 8. Macron also spoke with U.S. President Joe Biden on Feb. 2 about Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, According to a White House account of the call, the two leaders “affirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and reviewed our ongoing coordination on both diplomacy and preparations to impose swift and severe economic costs on Russia should it further invade Ukraine.” (Reuters, 02.04.22, Bloomberg, 02.02.22)
    • There are no indications at this stage to suggest that Russia is ready to take action in Ukraine, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Feb. 2. (Reuters, 02.02.22)
  • Several Western leaders and other senior officials visited Kyiv this week in a flurry of diplomatic activity that aims to deter a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, find a peaceful way out of the crisis and demonstrate solidarity with Kyiv. (The Wall Street Journal, 01.31.22)
    • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, standing alongside Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv, warned on Feb. 1 that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would end in a humanitarian, political and military disaster for Russia and the world, and said the U.K. would be judged by the level of help it gave to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine plans to bulk up its navy with the help of U.K. military assistance, which he valued at 1.7 billion pounds ($2.4 billion). He said the U.K. is also providing almost 2 billion pounds for other joint projects, including infrastructure and energy. (The Guardian, 02.01.22, Bloomberg, 02.01.22)
    • Britain, Poland and Ukraine are working to strengthen their three-way cooperation in the face of the threat of a new Russian military intervention, the prime ministers of the two Eastern European countries said in Kyiv on Feb. 1. Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki said Warsaw would help Ukraine with gas and arms supplies, as well as humanitarian and economic aid. (Reuters, 02.01.22)
    • Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte urged dialogue to defuse a crisis with Russia on Feb. 2 during a trip to Kyiv in which he also reaffirmed his resolve to secure justice for families of the victims of an airliner downed over eastern Ukraine in 2014. (Reuters, 02.02.22)
    • France and Germany's foreign affairs ministers will travel to Kyiv for talks with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, on Feb. 7-8, they said on Twitter. (Reuters, 01.29.22)
    • An American delegation led by former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst arrived in Kyiv on Jan. 30 to demonstrate solidarity and support for Ukraine. The group included three other former U.S. ambassadors to Ukraine, former deputy secretary general of NATO Alexander Vershbow, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Philip Breedlove and others. (Atlantic Council, 02.01.22)
  • The Biden administration is finalizing its targets for a barrage of economic sanctions against Russia if it attacks Ukraine—hitting major Russian banks, state companies and key imports. The most punishing of these could cause severe inflation, a stock market crash and other forms of financial panic that would inflict pain on its people—from billionaires to government officials to middle-class families. But the strategy comes with political and economic risks. And some analysts caution that the deterrent power of even the hardest-hitting Western measures currently lacks the clarity and unanimity necessary to make it effective. (The Wall Street Journal, 01.28.22, The New York Times, 01.29.22, The Washington Post, 02.03.22)
    • In an attention-grabbingly unusual move, the newest U.S. sanctions could target not just advisers and oligarchs in Putin’s inner circle, but their adult children, who may find themselves locked out of Western universities, U.S. officials say. The Biden administration has also identified several elite Russian government officials and business leaders whom the U.S. intends to sanction if Russia invades Ukraine, a senior administration official told CNN. The disclosure is the latest effort by the U.S. to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine. (The Washington Post, 02.01.22, CNN, 01.31.22)
    • The U.S. Senate is nearing a deal on sanctions against Russia. A bill including economic measures to punish Russia in the event of a full-blown invasion of Ukraine was being finalized with a plan to move it forward this week, according to Bob Menendez, the Democratic chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and James Risch, his top Republican counterpart. However, senators in both parties emerged from a Feb. 3 classified briefing on Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine with fresh doubts about whether a legislative response could come together in time to deter an invasion. (Financial Times, 01.31.22, Politico, 02.03.22)
    • Between 2014 and 2021, the United States and Europe imposed sanctions on more than 800 Russian individuals and entities for alleged “malign” activities, including the annexation of Crimea. The measures have not prompted the Kremlin to relinquish control of the region. (The Washington Post, 02.02.22)
  • Olaf Scholz, the new leader of Germany, heads for Washington on Feb. 6, facing pressure to embrace U.S.-led efforts to counter Moscow despite Berlin’s reliance on Russian energy supplies and misgivings in parts of Europe about America’s push to bring Ukraine into the trans-Atlantic fold. On Feb. 7, President Joe Biden is expected to push the new German leader, just weeks into the job, to support tough sanctions on Russia should Moscow invade its smaller neighbor, including closing the recently completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Scholz will hold talks with Putin in Moscow on Feb. 15, according to the Kremlin. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.04.22, RFE/RL, 02.04.22, Bloomberg, 02.02.22)
    • Russia confirmed it was possible that Scholz and Macron would travel to Moscow together, as a symbol of European unity and as joint signatories to the Minsk agreements, the stalled 2015 deal designed to bring peace and autonomy to Russian-supporting eastern Ukraine. (The Guardian, 02.03.22)
  • Britain on Jan. 31 unveiled a plan to hit more Russian individuals and businesses with sanctions if Moscow goes ahead with an invasion of Ukraine, urging Russia to "step back from the brink." Liz Truss, the British foreign secretary, insisted the Russian president’s allies would have nowhere to hide their assets if an invasion went ahead, but left Britain’s existing much-criticized anti-corruption laws largely untouched. The Kremlin vowed to retaliate if Britain seized Russian oligarchs’ London properties as part of the sanctions. (Politico, 01.31.22, Reuters, 01.31.22, The Guardian, 01.31.22, The Moscow Times, 01.31.22)
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said his country will never give special status to parts of Donbas that have been under the control of Moscow-backed separatists since April 2014. "None of Ukraine's regions will have a right to veto the state's decisions. That is engraved in stone! Therefore, no special status as Russia is considering it, no veto right will be given," Kuleba said in an interview with the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, published Feb. 2, referring to the so-called Minsk agreements. (RFE/RL, 02.02.22)
  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, on Feb. 1 “to follow up on the U.S. written response to Russia’s security proposals,” the State Department said. Speaking after the call, Lavrov complained that the U.S. response had focused on “secondary” issues and that the U.S. reaction on the “key issue” between the two countries was “extremely negative.” A U.S. official told The Washington Post on Jan. 31 that the administration had received Moscow’s written counter-response earlier in the day, but the Kremlin denied this, with Lavrov saying there had been a “misunderstanding.” Both sides said Feb. 1 that Moscow has not yet replied fully to the United States. (The Washington Post, 02.01.22)
    • Late last week, Lavrov offered measured praise for U.S. negotiators, claiming there were “grains of rationality” in Washington’s proposals and comparing them favorably to similar ones made by NATO officials. In his public remarks, Lavrov has also cautioned Western policymakers against implementing harsh sanctions on Putin or disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT international banking transaction system, indicating that such actions could be tantamount to severing diplomatic ties altogether. (The National Interest, 01.31.22)
  • The U.S. and Russia engaged in a bitter diplomatic brawl Jan. 31 at the U.N. Security Council over the Ukraine crisis, as the Americans accused the Russians of endangering peace by massing troops on Ukraine’s borders while Kremlin diplomats dismissed what they called hysterical U.S. fearmongering. (New York Times, 01.31.22)
    • Ukraine will be responsible for its own destruction if it undermines existing peace agreements, Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s permanent representative to the U.N., warned during the combative debate. Nebenzya also blamed Western nations for “actively pumping Ukraine full of weapons,” which he said were “in violation of the Minsk agreements.” He likewise blamed the U.S. for the 2014 ouster of a Kremlin-friendly president in Kyiv, saying it brought to power “nationalists, radicals, Russophobes and pure Nazis” and created the antagonism that exists between Ukraine and Russia. (The Guardian, 01.31.22, AP, 01.31.22)
    • With the support of only China, the Russians forced a vote at the beginning of the U.S.-called meeting on whether to hold the session behind closed doors. “What we urgently need now is quiet diplomacy, … not microphone diplomacy,” Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jun said. But the majority of the 15-member council voted to proceed with the public session, which President Joe Biden called “a critical step in rallying the world to speak out in one voice.” (The Washington Post, 01.31.22)
  • Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, after 10 years in his role, has one of the most established connections with Russian President Vladimir Putin among E.U. leaders and is a quiet back channel to inform Western moves in the showdown with Putin. The Sunday Times recently dubbed Niinisto the “Putin whisperer.” (The Washington Post, 01.31.22)
  • Ukrainian police on Jan. 30 detained a group of people suspected of preparing mass riots in the capital Kyiv and other cities to cause instability as tensions rise with neighboring Russia, Ukraine’s interior minister said on Jan. 31. Denys Monastyrskiy told a televised briefing that around 5,000 people were supposed to take part in riots and clashes with police in five cities in northern and central Ukraine. He did not say how many people had been detained or who was behind the planned unrest. (Reuters, 01.31.22)
  • According to two senior military officers in the Central African Republic, “dozens” of mercenaries from Wagner Group, the Russian military contractor, left the country for Eastern Europe in January and more are preparing to leave in the coming weeks. One man who was recently detained by Wagner Group forces as a forced laborer told The Daily Beast he had overheard CAR troops in the camp where he was being held “say that the Russian soldiers had left for Ukraine." (Daily Beast, 01.31.22) See also “Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with ‘far abroad’ countries” section below.
  • Ukraine’s access to debt markets hit a bump this week in a sign that investors are getting jittery about the possibility of a Russian invasion. A local government-bond auction failed on Feb. 1 to raise the targeted amount when investors balked at the interest rates being offered. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.03.22)

II. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

  • Ukraine's central storage site for used nuclear fuel is in cold testing and should receive its first shipments in April, according to its operator, the utility Energoatom. Known as the CSFSF, Ukraine's Centralized Spent Fuel Storage Facility has been a long-term project for the country. Contracts were signed for its construction with U.S.-based Holtec International in 2005, though construction only began in 2017. (World Nuclear News, 01.31.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

  • No significant developments.

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

  • See special section on Ukraine crisis above.

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

  • In a highly choreographed display of solidarity, President Xi Jinping of China and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Beijing ahead of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, the first meeting that Xi has held in person with a foreign counterpart in nearly two years. The relationship presents a continuing challenge to the United States’ dominance on the world stage. The meeting was the two leaders’ 38th since 2013. (The New York Times, 02.04.22, The Guardian, 02.04.22)
    • Xi said the two sides “firmly support each other in safeguarding their core interests,” according to a summary of the meeting by the state news agency Xinhua. "Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no 'forbidden' areas of cooperation," Putin and Xi declared, announcing plans to collaborate in a host of areas including space, climate change, artificial intelligence and control of the internet. (The Washington Post, 02.04.22, Reuters, 02.04.22)
    • Putin unveiled new Russian oil and gas deals with China worth an estimated $117.5 billion on Feb. 4, promising to ramp up Russia's Far East exports at a time of heightened tension with European customers over Ukraine. (Reuters, 02.04.22) For details see “Energy exports from CIS” section below.
    • In an article published Feb. 3 by the Chinese news agency Xinhua, Putin wrote that Moscow and Beijing play an “important stabilizing role” in global affairs and help make international affairs “more equitable and inclusive.” (AP, 02.03.22)
  • China and Russia are divided on many issues, including some territorial claims, and their alliance remains informal. Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Moscow Center said China does not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, while Russia does not recognize China’s “nine-dash line” asserting its claims in the South China Sea. So far, though, China’s rhetoric internationally has been firmly in Russia’s corner. (The Washington Post, 02.01.22)
    • “There is no ceiling on the development of our relationship [with Russia], no limit,” said Zhao Mingwen, a former Chinese diplomat and Russia expert now at the China Institute of International Studies, the think-tank of the foreign ministry. “This gives our Western friends a lot of room for imagination. You could say we are even more allies than allies.” (Financial Times, 01.30.22)
    • "I will say that we now have best relationship with China. The best period, probably, in our relations, which was never before. The more pushes we will experience—China is experiencing the same pushes from the NATO allies, especially from the United States—I am sure they are pushing us to be closer," Russian Ambassador to the U.K. Andrey Kelin has said. (The Times, 01.29.22)
  • China and Russia will sign an agreement to build a research station on the moon, officials at the Chinese space agency have said. The two countries aim to complete basic infrastructure construction—including energy, communication and life support—for the lunar station by 2035, Wu Yanhua, a deputy director of China National Space Administration, told a briefing in Beijing on Jan. 28. China and Russia also agreed to cooperate on the launch of a robotic lunar mission, Chang’e 7, around 2025. (Bloomberg, 01.28.22)

Missile defense:

  • See special section on Ukraine crisis above.

Nuclear arms control:

  • No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

  • Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, leader of the Islamic State militant group, was killed in Syria in a mission by U.S. Special Operations, President Joe Biden said Feb. 3. Thirteen people, including children, died during the overnight raid on an Islamic State safe house in northwestern Syria, local first responders said. No U.S. casualties were reported in the operation. (The Washington Post, 02.03.22)

Conflict in Syria:

  • No significant developments.

Cyber security:

  • The U.S. on Feb. 3 launched a new federal Cyber Safety Review Board modeled loosely on the National Transportation Safety Board, which studies airplane crashes, train derailments and other transportation accidents, and then issues public reports. Unlike the latter, the cyber board does not have subpoena power. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.04.22)
  • Russia could use cyberattacks as part of its efforts to destabilize and further invade Ukraine, a White House cyber official visiting her European counterparts said Feb. 2. Anne Neuberger, U.S. deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technology, was meeting EU and NATO officials in Brussels to discuss the threat. The White House described Neuberger’s trip as a mission to prepare allies to deter, and perhaps disrupt, Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine, and to brace for the possibility that sanctions on Moscow could lead to a wave of retaliatory cyberattacks on Europe and the United States. (Reuters, 02.02.22, The New York Times, 02.03.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia has agreed a long-term contract to supply gas to China via a new pipeline and will settle the new gas sales in euros, bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow's strained ties with the West. Gazprom, which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, agreed to supply Chinese state energy major CNPC with 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year, the Russian firm and a Beijing-based industry official said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the deal was for 25 years, while a Chinese industry source said it was for 30. Russia is already Beijing's No. 3 gas supplier. (Reuters, 02.04.22, Reuters, 02.04.22)
  • EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson has travelled to energy-rich Azerbaijan amid Europe's efforts to ensure sufficient gas supplies to Europe in the event that Russia, which provides 40% of the EU’s gas, reduces pipeline flows amid its standoff with the West over Ukraine. Simson told a news briefing in Baku on Feb. 4 that the EU is hoping for the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to boost gas exports to Europe from Azerbaijan. Baku, in turn, is ready to supply Europe with some emergency gas should tensions between Russia and Ukraine disrupt shipments, but additional exports wouldn’t be enough to replace top supplier Russia, said Elin Suleymanov, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to the U.K., and any significant boost in volumes would require Europe to sign long-term gas contracts. (Reuters, 02.04.22, Financial Times, 01.28.22, Bloomberg, 01.28.22)
    • The United States has asked Japan if it could divert some LNG to Europe if the Ukraine crisis leads to a disruption of supplies, Japanese government sources told Reuters on Feb. 4, and Japan has said it would consider how it could help. (Reuters, 02.04.22)
  • Russian coal merchants are proving to be the winners as European buyers, nervous a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine could lead to disrupted gas supplies, stock up on the dirtiest fossil fuel. Despite Europe's ambitions to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by the middle of the century, which means weaning itself off all fossil fuels, but especially coal, the continent has been switching to coal from gas since the middle of last year. (Reuters, 02.03.22)
  • Kazakhstan has asked the foreign companies operating its main oilfields to supply the domestic market so it can boost its refining industry and tackle the rising fuel prices that led to violent protests in January. (Reuters, 02.04.22)

Climate change:

  • See “Energy exports from CIS” above.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

  • Apple has opened a representative office in Russia, the Roskomnadzor communications watchdog said Feb. 4, becoming the first company to comply with the Kremlin's new rules requiring foreign technology firms to localize their operations in the country. Under a new law, some 13 foreign technology companies are required to open local offices and fulfill a string of other technical requirements or face hefty fines. (The Moscow Times, 02.04.22)
  • One U.S. bank that has persevered with Russia is Citigroup, which had $5.5 billion in loans, investment securities and other assets tied to Russia at the end of the third quarter of 2021; France’s SocGen, Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank and UniCredit of Italy are among the European banks with the most substantial operations in Russia—together accounting for 3.7% of assets in the Russian banking system, according to data compiled by JPMorgan. (Financial Times, 01.31.22)
  • Hedge funds are scooping up Russian and Ukrainian assets after sharp declines since last autumn, while institutional investors stay clear as they view the intensifying political risks as too hot to handle. (Financial Times, 02.03.22)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

  • With the legal door to America effectively closed, Russians have joined the Central Americans, Haitians and Cubans who have traditionally made use of the Mexican border route to enter the U.S. According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, 4,103 Russian citizens were detained at the border in the year to October 2021, a tenfold increase on the year before. In one December incident, border patrol officers fired shots at vehicles carrying Russian migrants across the border. “Most of all, this is about the deteriorating political situation in many post-Soviet countries,” said Yekaterina Mouratova, a Miami-based Russian-American immigration lawyer whose firm provides legal representation for Russian-speaking asylum seekers detained at the southern border. She singled out Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan—all of which have seen recent political unrest and repression—as particularly well-represented among migrants attempting to cross the border. (The Moscow Times, 01.31.22)

III. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of COVID’s spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
  • The number of new coronavirus cases in Russia has soared since mid-January, setting daily infection records for two weeks straight. Authorities blame the highly transmissible omicron variant, which they now say is dominant in Russia. According to official figures, the number of daily new cases on Feb. 4 reached more than 168,000 nationwide, compared to about 15,000 in early January. Almost 18,000 people are hospitalized with COVID-19. These figures, however, are probably a vast undercount. (The Washington Post, 02.04.22)
    • Russia's COVID-19 deaths passed the 700,000 mark on Jan. 28, Reuters calculations based on new data from the Rosstat state statistics service showed. (Reuters, 01.28.22)
  • Russians argue over a host of domestic issues, like the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic or ballooning inflation. But there is one thing many seem to agree with President Vladimir Putin about: If war does come, it will be the Americans’ fault. It is a message hammered home daily by the Kremlin’s propaganda machine. The Levada Center, one of the few independent pollsters in Russia, says that 50% of Russians see the United States and NATO as responsible for rising tensions. Fewer than 5% blame the Kremlin. (The New York Times, 02.04.22)
  • Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who is considered a friend of President Vladimir Putin, is expected to replace former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev's son-in-law Timur Kulibaev on the board of directors of Russian energy giant Gazprom. Gazprom said on Feb. 4 that its annual general shareholders meeting in late June will chose the board of directors, with the list of candidates already approved. (RFE/RL, 02.04.22)
  • The Kremlin appeared to stand behind Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov on Feb. 3 as the strongman faced a string of scandals over his threats against media organizations and the family of a retired judge. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed, after denying it a day earlier, that Kadyrov had met with Putin in the Kremlin on the evening of Feb. 2 and they discussed “economic affairs.” The sit-down came a day after Adam Delimkhanov, a ruling-party lawmaker representing Chechnya in Russia’s parliament, threatened to “cut the heads off” the family of a Chechen anti-torture activist and his father, a retired federal judge. Crowds of Chechens massed in central Grozny this week to burn pictures of the rights activist's family, whom Kadyrov has likewise threatened with death. (The Moscow Times, 02.03.22, RFE/RL, 02.04.22)
  • At least five junior nurses in a hospital outside Moscow have gone on hunger strike over poor working conditions and low salaries, the Meduza news site reported on Feb 2. (The Moscow Times, 02.02.22)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Following months of speculation, Russian authorities have revealed the first vessel to receive the vaunted Tsirkon missile upgrade. A Russian defense industry insider source told TASS news agency that the Admiral Golovko, the third frigate of the Project 22350 Admiral Gorshkov class, “will become the first standard carrier of Tsirkons.” (The National Interest, 01.28.22)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • A Russian court on Feb. 4 handed a life sentence to an accomplice in the 2010 deadly bombing attack on the Moscow metro, which killed 39 and injured dozens. (AFP/The Moscow Times, 02.04.22)
  • A Russian court has rejected the appeal of a 61-year-old Ukrainian national who was convicted of espionage in Russia-annexed Crimea last year. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Feb. 4 that Kostyantyn Shyring would begin serving his 12-year prison sentence immediately. Shyring was arrested in Ukraine's Russia-controlled Black Sea peninsula in March 2020 and charged with collecting classified data on Russian military personnel in Crimea through an accomplice, a Russian woman who served in the Russian armed forces. The woman was handed an eight-year prison sentence in June. (RFE/RL, 02.04.22)

IV. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Russia is still banned from the Olympics, but hundreds of its athletes are set to compete in Beijing. Just as their compatriots did at the Tokyo Games, 215 Russian athletes will again compete under the banner of the Russian Olympic Committee. The Russian flag and anthem are also banned. (The New York Times, 02.04.22)
  • Russia turned down the temperature on another potential provocation in Western Europe on Jan. 29, backing out of a plan to conduct naval exercises next week in international waters off Ireland’s coast, which had drawn protests from Irish fishing groups, as well as Dublin. An Irish government official told CNN there had been "a feverish 48 hours or so" of negotiations with Moscow leading up to the announcement. (The New York Times, 01.31.22, CNN, 01.31.22)
  • Russia on Feb. 3 said it will shut down German broadcaster Deutsche Welle’s Moscow bureau in response to Berlin's ban on the German-language channel of Russian state TV network RT. Moscow said Feb. 4 that it would respond in kind if Germany moved to end the dispute over their respective media outlets but would escalate the row if Berlin chose to do so. (The Moscow Times, 02.03.22, Reuters, 02.04.22)
  • Europe needs to end its reliance on Russian energy and Germany should accept that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was never just a commercial project, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has said. Kallas also said she detected a wider debate within Germany about its approach to Russia after Angela Merkel’s departure, and that she was waiting for an official response from Berlin on the transfer of Estonian weapons of German-origin to Ukraine. In recent weeks she has become one of the most forthright advocates in the West of the argument that Vladimir Putin only responds to shows of strength. (The Guardian, 01.28.22)
  • Colombia's Defense Minister Diego Molano said Feb. 3 that Venezuela is moving troops to the border with Colombia with technical assistance from Russia and Iran, calling the possible deployment "foreign interference." (Reuters, 02.03.22)
  • Witnesses in Central African Republic have told The Daily Beast that gunmen from the Wagner Group—the Russian military contractor—attacked unarmed civilians, including women and children, possibly killing dozens over two days, Jan. 16-17. The violence began at a gold mining site, according to one witness, and the Wagner fighters were joined by CAR government forces, commonly referred to as FACA. Over the past year or so, reports of aggression by the mercenaries in CAR have become commonplace. (Daily Beast, 01.31.22)
  • India has formally inked its first major defense system export deal with the Philippines, signing a $375 million contract for the BrahMos shore-based anti-ship missile system. The 290-kilometer-range supersonic missile has been jointly developed with Russia and is produced in India. (The Economic Times, 01.29.22)
  • Three-quarters of Slovaks (74.1%) believe the U.S. and NATO are responsible for the increasing tension between Ukraine and Russia, according to a poll carried out by the Focus polling agency for TV Markiza. Only 34.7% of Slovaks blame Russia for the conflict on the Ukrainian border. More than one-fifth of respondents (21.2%) do not know who is at fault.  (bne Intellinews, 02.01.22)

Ukraine:

  • The Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions were once the engines of the country’s economy and dominated its politics. They produced its richest man, billionaire industrialist Rinat Akhmetov, as well as former President Viktor Yanukovych, ousted by the street protests that triggered the Russian invasion in 2014. Since then, however, the two areas—now nominally independent “people’s republics” inside the larger regions of Luhansk and Donetsk—have turned into impoverished, depopulated enclaves that increasingly rely on Russian subsidies to survive. As much as half the prewar population of 3.8 million has left, for the rest of Ukraine, more prosperous Russia or Europe. Those who remain are disproportionately retirees, members of the security services and people simply too poor to move. Current economic output has shrunk to roughly 30% of the level before the Russian invasion, economists estimate. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.04.22)
  • YouTube and Facebook have blocked several channels operated by Kremlin-backed separatists in Ukraine's eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, commonly known as the Donbas. (The Moscow Times, 02.04.22, RFE/RL, 02.04.22)
  • The chair of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, on Jan. 30 dismissed the idea that Russia was a threat to Ukraine. “We do not want war. We don’t need it at all. Those who are pushing toward it, especially those from the West, they are pursuing some self-serving false goals of their own,” the Interfax news agency cited Patrushev as saying. (Financial Times, 01.30.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • The United States has introduced sanctions against Belarusian citizens who, according to the State Department, were involved in the "transnational repression" of Belarusian athletes abroad. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Feb. 3 that the move targets "multiple Belarusian nationals for their involvement in serious, extraterritorial counter-dissident activity," without identifying the individuals affected by the sanctions. (RFE/RL, 02.03.22)
  • Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has rejected calls for an international probe into protests earlier this month that left more than 220 people dead and prompted the country to call in troops from a Russian-led military organization. (RFE/RL, 01.29.22)
  • Kazakhstan says it has launched nearly 100 investigations into alleged illegal detentions and rights abuses of those arrested during and after the deadly anti-government protests last month, heeding the demands of domestic and international human rights groups. (RFE/RL, 02.03.22)
  • A 40-year-old woman with six children, two of them with disabilities, is facing a long jail term after livestreaming the January anti-government protests in Kazakhstan on Facebook. (RFE/RL, 02.01.22) 
  • Articles in Russian media in the second half of January have raised alarms about the planned construction of a biosafety-level-4, or BSL-4, laboratory in Kazakhstan. (BSL-4 is the highest level of risk assigned to microbes in labs.) Articles in Topwar.ru and Izvestiya argue that reference labs and biosafety facilities in Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are an enormous cause for concern for Russia because they are non-transparent and potentially unaccountable facilities conducting dangerous work close to the Russian border. While both articles include disinformation, they also exemplify the perspectives of Russian military analysts about installations in Eurasia supported by the U.S. State Department’s Office of Cooperative Threat Reduction. (CNA’s Russian Media Analysis, 01.28.22)