7 Things to Know

1. Ukrainian military officials have taken turns this week to predict a major offensive by the Russian armed forces in February-March. Ukraine's General Staff said on Feb. 2 that there are clear signs that Russian forces are getting ready for a major push in the east. Ukraine’s military intelligence claimed the same day that Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March. A source at the headquarters of the Russian group in Ukraine confirmed preparations for an offensive to Novaya Gazeta Evropa.
2. The new $2.2 billion military aid package the U.S. has prepared for Ukraine includes a precise munition with a range farther than any bomb the U.S. has so far provided to Ukraine. The Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb is a precision-guided bomb that is strapped to a rocket and has a range of 94 miles. While agreeing to provide these 250-pound bombs, which can reach targets in Crimea as well as in the land bridge to Russia, the U.S. has rejected Ukraine’s request for F-16 fighter jets, as did Germany. In contrast, France and the Netherlands have signaled openness to discussing supplies of fighter jets to Ukraine.
3. The share of Americans who say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine has grown from 7% in March 2022 to 26% in January 2023, according to Pew. The share of Americans who say the U.S. is not providing enough aid to Ukraine has decreased from 42% to 20% over the same period, while the share of Americans who say the U.S. is providing about the right amount of aid decreased from 32% to 31%, according to Pew. The share of Americans who see the conflict as a major threat to U.S. interests declined from 50% to 35% in that period.
4. Ukrainian law-enforcers have continued high-profile searches, firings and investigations of corruption and misconduct by multiple officials as Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, hosted the Pentagon’s inspector general, Robert Storch.  Volodymyr Zelensky’s advisor David Arakhamia said that "notes of suspicion" had been delivered to top officials in the country's Defense Ministry, according to WP. In addition, a Ukrainian court approved the pre-trial detention of ex-deputy defense minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov, who has been accused of profiting from inflated prices on food the ministry has been buying for soldiers, according to Ukrainian media. Meanwhile, the head of the Kyiv tax service, Oksana Datiy, was dismissed and multiple tax offices have been searched.
5. Vladimir Putin dropped another hint that he may resort to nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war. In his Feb. 2 speech on the anniversary of the Soviet victory in the decisive WWII battle of Stalingrad, he said: “It’s hard to believe, but it’s a fact, that we are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks ... we aren’t sending our tanks to their borders, but we have a way to respond, and it will not just end with the use of armored vehicles. Everyone should understand this.” Since the beginning of the invasion, Putin has been periodically rattling his nuclear saber, though he toned down his language somewhat starting last fall. The latest threat comes as the U.S. and Russia spar over Russia’s implementation of the New START treaty.
6. Russia-China relations have reached a point of “higher quality than military alliances in their classic sense, and they have no bounds or limits,” Sergei Lavrov told Russian TV. Lavrov’s agency said this week that it is anticipating a visit from Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Russia this spring.
7. The IMF has revised its forecast to predict Russian economic growth this year, putting it ahead of Germany and the U.K. The agency now expects Russia’s GDP to grow 0.3% in 2023. That growth stands in sharp contrast to the 2.3% contraction forecast by the IMF in October and marks an improvement from the 2.2% decline recorded by the sanctions-hit economy in 2022, MT reported. Russia’s projected growth also contrasts with the IMF’s expectation that the GDP of Germany and the U.K. will grow by 0.1% and shrink by 0.6%, respectively.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. would expand military drills with South Korea and increase nuclear-deterrence efforts, as he sought to reassure the Asian ally amid growing threats from North Korea. (WSJ, 01.30.23)
• North Korea on Jan. 29 denied providing arms to Moscow after the United States said the nuclear-armed state supplied rockets and missiles to Russia's private military group Wagner. The International Institute of Strategic Studies estimates North Korea has an arsenal of more than 21,600 artillery pieces. Some North Korean items likely on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wish list would be 122-mm and 152-mm artillery rounds as well as 122-mm rockets. (MT/AFP, 01.29.23, Bloomberg, 01.30.23)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• French President Emmanuel Macron denounced late on Feb. 2 the "headlong rush" of Iran's nuclear program after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in Paris to seek a stronger European stance against Tehran. (AFP, 02.03.23)
• Iran and Russia have taken a step toward integrating their banking systems, according to Mohsen Karimi, the deputy governor of Iran’s central bank. He said Iranian banks could now rely on Russian bank messaging services, allowing them to make international transactions. (NYT, 01.30.23)
• Iran summoned Ukraine's charge d'affaires in Tehran on Jan. 30 over his country's comments about a drone strike on a military factory in the central Iranian province of Isfahan. (Reuters, 01.30.23)
• The U.S. has placed new trade restrictions on seven Iranian entities for producing drones used by Russia to attack Ukraine. (Reuters, 01.31.23)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Three civilians were killed and more than a dozen people were injured in a Russian strike Jan. 28 on Kostyantynivka in Donetsk oblast, Ukrainian officials said. (Bloomberg, 01.28.23)
• Russia’s defense ministry said on Jan. 28 that 14 people were killed in an overnight Ukrainian strike on a hospital in occupied Luhansk using HIMARS. (Bloomberg, 01.28.23)
• Since the beginning of the war, the regions of Russia neighboring Ukraine have been shelled at least 350 times by Ukrainian forces, according to Novaya Gazeta. As a result of the shelling, 168 civilians were injured and 36 of them died. (RM, 02.03.23)
• Russian shelling of Ukraine's southern city of Kherson left at least three people dead on Jan. 29, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan. 30 (MT/AFP, 01.30.23)
• On Feb. 1, at least three people were killed and more than a dozen others were wounded when a rocket slammed into apartment complex in Kramatorsk, Ukrainian officials said. (NYT, 02.02.23)
• Human Rights Watch on Jan. 31 accused Ukraine of using banned anti-personnel PFM mines against invading Russian forces, saying almost 50 civilians, including five children, had been wounded. “Russian forces have repeatedly used antipersonnel mines and committed atrocities across the country, but this doesn’t justify Ukrainian use of these prohibited weapons,” Stephen Goose, the executive director of the Human Rights Watch’s arms division, said in a statement. (NYT, 01.31.23, MT/AFP, 01.31.23)
• Over 66,000 additional alleged war crimes have been reported to Ukrainian authorities since the Russian invasion last February, according to Ukraine's Office of the Prosecutor General. (WP, 01.29.23)
• Andrei Medvedev, an ex-commander with Russia’s notorious mercenary group Wagner who is currently seeking asylum in Norway described during an interview witnessing summary executions of fellow soldiers. (MT/AFP, 01.31.23)
• According to bne IntelliNews estimates, Europe had committed some €550 billion to support and relief for companies and consumers by December and the cost of the war to European economies was on course to top €1 trillion by the end of winter. (BNE, 01.31.23)

• The European Union's investment bank has called for more budget guarantees from the bloc's 27 members to match or exceed this year the 2.2 billion euros ($2.4 billion) spent in Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022. (Reuters, 02.02.23)
• More than $135 million of a long-dormant U.S. government fund, called the U.S. Russia Investment Fund, established to invest in Russia’s private sector will be distributed to help the economies of Ukraine and its neighbor, Moldova, recover from Russia’s war, the U.S. Agency for International Development said Feb. 1. (NYT, 02.01.23)
• IMF’s representatives are planning to meet Ukrainian officials in Warsaw in mid-February to advance discussions over a loan that could range from $14 billion-$16 billion. Ukraine has said it is facing a $38 billion deficit this year. (FT, 02.03.23)
• The U.K. government is seeking EU approval before donating £2.3billion from Roman Abramovich’s Chelsea sale to charitable causes in Ukraine. (Talksport, 02.01.23)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Ukraine's military said on Feb. 2 there are clear signs that Russian forces are getting ready for a major push in the east. (RFE/RL, 02.02.23)
  • Novaya Gazeta Evropa’s source at the headquarters of the Russian group in Ukraine confirms preparations for an offensive. According to him, the generals are ready to sacrifice tens of thousands of servicemen. At the same time, the Russian commanders do not take into account that “Ukrainians receive absolutely accurate data on all our movements from Western intelligence services,” according to the source.  According to the source, the problem lies not only in the difficulties of capturing territories and cities, but also in their further retention. (Novaya Gazeta Evropa, 02.03.23) 
  • Zelensky warned his country to prepare for a wider onslaught, adding that intelligence assessments indicate that much of the Russian pressure will come in the south and east. (WSJ, 02.03.23)
  • Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's military intelligence boss, is forecasting that this year Russia will focus on occupying more territory in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. A renewed offensive from its forces stationed north of Ukraine, in Belarus, is unlikely, he said, and just an attempt to distract and divide Kyiv's troops. He also said that "we must do everything to ensure that Crimea returns home by summer." (NYT, 01.31.23)
    • Budanov stated on Jan. 31 that there are currently 326,000 Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, excluding the 150,000 mobilized personnel still at training grounds. (ISW, 02.02.23)
  • Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Chernyak stated that Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated on Feb. 2 that Russian forces are preparing to launch an offensive, likely in eastern or southern Ukraine. (ISW, 02.02.23)
  • “We are on the eve of a very active phase,” Andriy Yusov, a representative for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s intelligence service, said on Feb. 1, calling the current situation “very difficult.” “There will be very active battles in February and March,” he added. (Bloomberg, 02.02.23)
• On Feb. 3, Russian attacks in the Donetsk region focused on Lyman and Avdiyivka in addition to Bakhmut, according Ukraine's General Staff. The battle for Bakhmut has reached a tipping point, but Avdiivka remained under Ukrainian control as of the evening of Feb. 3, as did Vuhledar (also in the Donetsk region), according to Igor Girkin (Strelkov), ex-defense chief of the DNR. The Russian forces have also captured Mykolaivka and continued to press toward the Donetsk region’s Paraskoviivka and Krasna Gora, according to Ukrainian OSINT Telegram channel DeepStateUa. (RFE/RL, 02.03.23, RM, 02.03.23)
• Reports of Russian artillery barrages in eastern Ukraine had risen from an average of about 60 per day four weeks ago to more than 90 per day last week, with 111 Ukrainian locations targeted on one day alone, Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst for Rochan Consulting said this week. (NYT, 02.02.23)
• France has signaled openness to sending fighter jets to Ukraine as Western countries weigh the next steps in military assistance to help Kyiv resist Russian attacks. “By definition, nothing is excluded,” French President Emmanuel Macron said, adding that he had not received a request for jets from Ukraine. Defense analysts expect that France would send an older model of its Mirage jets to Ukraine if Macron opted to supply combat aircraft. (FT, 01.30.23)
  • Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra said last month that the Netherlands would consider any requests to send F-16s with “an open mind” and that there were “no taboos” on military support. (FT, 02.02.23)
  • Poland is in favor of sending combat aircraft under certain conditions. (FT, 01.30.23)
  • U.S. President Joe Biden said Jan. 30 the United States would not provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 01.31.23)
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated on Jan. 29 that Germany will not send fighter jets to Ukraine. (AFP, 01.29.23)
  • Britain does not believe it is practical to send its fighter jets to Ukraine, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Jan. 31. (Reuters, 01.31.23)
  • Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has urged the West to keep all options open to requests from Ukraine for weaponry, including fighter jets. (Baltic News Service, 01.31.23)
  • On Jan. 27, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban said: “It started with the Germans saying they were willing to send helmets,” Orban said. “Now, we’re at battle tanks, and they’re already talking about planes.” (Bloomberg, 01.28.23)
    • The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry will summon Hungary's ambassador to complain about "completely unacceptable" remarks Orban made about Ukraine, Kyiv said Jan. 27. (Reuters, 01.28.23)
  • Croatia's president has criticized Western governments for supplying Ukraine with heavy tanks and other weapons in its campaign against invading Russian forces, saying those arms deliveries will only prolong the war. (AP, 01.30.23)
    • Ukraine's Foreign Ministry has called a statement by Milanovic that Crimea will never return to Ukrainian control "unacceptable." (RFE/RL, 01.31.23)
  • Russia on Feb. 1 criticized comments by Macron, who refused this week to rule out delivering fighter jets to Ukraine, while warning against the risk of escalation. (MT/AFP, 02.01.23) 
• Ukrainian soldiers will start training on Leopard 2 tanks next week as part of an EU-funded training mission. Germany has approved the export of Leopard 1 battle tanks to Ukraine from industry stocks. The Leopard 1s are not as advanced as the Leopard 2s that Germany and other countries pledged last week, but could be delivered sooner. (Reuters, 02.03.23, FT, 02.02.23)
• The first set of Western tanks likely to arrive in Ukraine are the Challenger 2s that the British government promised in early January. The 14 tanks—enough for one Ukrainian company—could be in the country as soon as late March. "Ukrainian tank crews have arrived in Britain to begin training for their continued fight against Russia,” the British Defense Ministry said Jan. 29. (NYT, 01.31.23, RFE/RL, 01.29.23)
• Polish officials say they expect the Abrams tanks to be delivered to Ukraine will be repaired in Poland in the western city of Poznan. Poland will also likely play a critical role in repairing and maintaining the Leopards. (WSJ, 01.28.23)
• Two U.S. officials said the U.S. is preparing to offer Kyiv a $2.2 billion military aid package which is expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time as well as other munitions and weapons. The new smart weapon is a Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb, or GLSDB, a precision-guided 250-pound bomb that is strapped to a rocket. It has a range of 94 miles, which is farther than any bomb the U.S. has so far provided to Ukraine. (WSJ, 02.01.23, CNBC, 02.02.23, Bloomberg, 02.01.23)
  •   “Now we are striving to push away [Ukrainian] artillery to a distance that will not threaten our territory,” Lavrov said in an interview with state newswire Ria Novosti. “The longer the range of weapons supplied to the Kyiv regime by the West, the further away we need to move them from Russian borders.” (FT, 02.03.23)
• While the Pentagon has pledged to send nearly $30 billion in military supplies to Ukraine and refill its own stocks, less than $10 billion has so far been awarded in contracts to defense companies, according to the Defense Department. (WSJ, 01.31.23)
• Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, wrote on Twitter Jan. 27 about his meeting in Kyiv with a U.S. Defense Department delegation led by Robert Storch, the department’s inspector general. In his tweet, Reznikov said that Ukraine’s allies “continue to see for themselves that transparency & accountability are critical components of our policy.” (Bloomberg, 01.28.23)
• The EU announced it will double the number of Ukrainian troops it trains to 30,000. (WSJ, 02.02.23)
• Italy is poised to join forces with France and provide a state-of-the-art SAMP-2 missile defense system to Ukraine. (FT, 02.01.23)
• Germany and Sweden are in talks over a new weapons package which would see Stockholm provide air defense missiles and launchers for Germany’s IRIS-T systems to Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 02.03.23)
• Israel does not reject sending military aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Feb. 1. He separately noted that Israel was ready to consider the delivery of the Iron Dome antimissile defense system to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.02.23)
  • Russia on Feb. 1 warned Israel against supplying weapons to Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 02.02.23)
• The Ukraine war has fueled rapid growth in South Korea's arms exports as countries supporting Kyiv turn to Seoul to replenish their supplies. Its share of the global arms market rose to make it the eighth-largest exporter, with 2.8% of global exports, over the five years ending in 2021, from 13th and 1% in the previous five years, according to the institute. (WSJ, 02.02.23)
  • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged South Korea to provide military support to Ukraine, saying the country is in urgent need of ammunition. (WSJ, 01.30.23)
• “Brazil has no interest in passing on ammunition so that it will be used in the [Russian-Ukrainian] war,” Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told a joint press conference with visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Lula said at their joint press conference. “Brazil does not want to have any participation, even indirect.” (Bloomberg, 02.01.23)
• The number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, a stark symbol of just how badly Putin’s invasion has gone, according to American and other Western officials. On Norwegian TV on Jan. 22, Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen, Norway’s defense chief, said estimates were that Russia had suffered 180,000 dead and wounded, while Ukraine had 100,000 killed or wounded in action along with 30,000 civilian deaths. (NYT, 02.02.23)
• Referring to conversations with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the military's General Staff last February, U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said: "I remember saying to Minister Shoigu 'They will fight,' and he said, 'My mother is Ukrainian, they won't!' He also said he had no intention of invading. … I remember as we were walking out Gen. Gerasimov said, 'Never again will we be humiliated. We used to be the fourth army in the world, we're now number two. It's now America and us.' And there in that minute was that sense of potentially why [they were doing this],” Wallace recalled Gerasimov as saying. (Bloomberg, 01.30.23,  WP, 01.30.23)
• According to Levada Center polls, January saw a slight increase in the Russian public’s support for the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine: 45% definitely support (up from 41% in December), while 19% do not support (21% in December). In January, 68% of respondents said they believe hostilities will last more than six months (up from 64% in November). Some 71% believe that the conflict will end in a victory for Russia (75% in May), 17% believe that neither side will prevail (15% in May) and only 1% believe that it will end in a victory for Ukraine. (RM, 02.03.23)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The United States has imposed Russia-related sanctions on 22 individuals and entities in multiple countries that the U.S. Treasury Department says are part of a global network set up to evade previously announced sanctions targeting Russia’s defense industry. The Biden administration froze the U.S.-based assets of people and companies linked to what it said was a father-and-son network of arms dealers that conspired to evade sanctions on Russia’s defense sector. The group is led by Igor and Jonatan Zimenkov. (RFE/RL, 02.01.23, Bloomberg, 02.02.23)
• Through a series of subpoenas, federal prosecutors in New York are demanding high-end auction houses in the U.S. turn over years of records as they seek to determine if art was smuggled offshore or if proceeds from sales were transferred illegally. Among those named in the subpoenas are sanctioned Russian tycoons Andrey Melnichenko, Viktor Vekselberg and Roman Abramovich, along with Ukrainian billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky. (Bloomberg, 02.01.23)
• Goldman Sachs has transferred its ownership stakes in Russian recruitment firm HeadHunter and Cian, a property listing website, to Maxim Klimov and Anton Schreider, part of the Wall Street firm’s efforts to wind down its operations in the country in the wake of Moscow’s war with Ukraine. (FT, 01.30.23)
• Recent data show surges in trade for some of Russia’s neighbors and allies, suggesting that countries like Turkey, China, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are stepping in to provide Russia with many of the products that Western countries have tried to cut off as punishment for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. (NYT, 01.31.23)
• “Even though Mongolia is a democratic country it is also under pressure because of the sanctions imposed on Russia,” Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene, Mongolia’s 42-year-old prime minister, told FT. He added that the punitive measures amounted to “a double sanction on Mongolia even though it is not our fault.” (FT, 01.30.23)
• Ukraine's government is running a campaign to name and shame Western individuals still working for Russian companies with the aim of pressuring more to leave. Ukraine has built a database of more than 300 directorships at Russian companies that it says are held by Westerners, and made it publicly available via a website. (WSJ, 02.01.23)
• Russia’s top carmaker AvtoVis is facing a car paint shortage, limiting color options for car-buyers to white, black and dark green. The shortage marks the latest example of sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine impacting the country’s automotive industry. (MT/AFP, 01.30.23)
• The International Olympic Committee (IOC) on Jan. 31 rebuffed a Russian demand that its athletes be treated the same as those of other countries. IOC said last week it was examining a "pathway" for Russians to compete in Paris, probably as neutral athletes rather than under their national flag. (MT/AFP, 02.01.23)
  • The Biden administration said Russian and Belarusian athletes should compete in the 2024 Olympics in Paris only as neutral participants, but it did not weigh in on the bigger question: whether the athletes should be allowed in at all. (NYT, 02.02.23)
  • Zelensky said on Jan. 29 that allowing Russia to compete at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris was tantamount to showing that "terror is somehow acceptable." (Reuters, 01.29.23)
  • Latvia wouldn't send athletes to an Olympic Games that included Russian and Belarusian nationals while the invasion in Ukraine is ongoing. (Reuters, 02.01.23)
• The International Federation of Journalists, which represents journalists from 146 countries, has initiated the expulsion of Russia's Union of Journalists from its ranks. (MT/AFP, 01.31.23)
• Russia has added the Lithuania-based Free Russia Forum, a platform uniting leading figures of Russia’s liberal opposition, to its list of “undesirable” organizations. (MT/AFP, 02.01.23)
• The European Union has reiterated its request from candidate Bosnia-Herzegovina to abandon its visa free-regime for Russian citizens. (RFE/RL, 01.30.23)
• Paul Smith said it was pulling out of Russia almost a year after most Western brands stopped trading in the country following the invasion of Ukraine. (FT, 02.03.23)
• Brian Nelson, U.S. undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the U.S. Treasury, met with Turkish officials on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3 to discuss U.S. concerns about the rising exports to Russia that include U.S. goods, according to people with knowledge of the matter. (Bloomberg, 02.03.23)
• A federal district judge in New York ruled on Feb. 2 that prosecutors may seize $5.4 million belonging to Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev, paving the way for the funds to be used to help rebuild Ukraine. (Reuters, 02.03.23)
• Russia on Feb. 3 said it will nationalize "foreign" assets in annexed Crimea—including those with Ukraine-linked ownership—and funnel some of the funds to support people fighting in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 02.03.23)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• A CIA official told Newsweek that claims in the report from Swiss-German newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung that CIA head William Burns took a secret trip to Moscow in January and that there was a peace proposal put forward by the director on behalf of the White House were "completely false." According to the newspaper, the proposal offered "around 20% of Ukraine's territory,” but was rejected by both sides. (Newsweek, 02.02.23)
• Burns and national security adviser Jake Sullivan have been recently trying to negotiate a truce with Putin, according to Yulia Latynina’s Jan. 31 article in Novaya Gazeta. Latynina claimed that the Russian side indicated readiness during talks to withdraw from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Russia had seized, in exchange for full control over the Donbas and Luhansk regions. The sides also discussed how a “diplomatic solution to the problem of Crimea can be [the subject of] negotiations that would last for 15 years … as well as the incorporation of Donbas and Luhansk into Ukraine within five years, i.e.. Minsk-3,” she claimed in her article. (RM, 02.01.23)
• Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko said: “Our position is clear, intelligible and transparent. We are ready for negotiations ... without the preconditions that they are trying to put forward. Negotiations are negotiations. But if the Kyiv regime is ready for real negotiations, we do not see this.” (RBC, 02.01.23)
• Biden and Zelensky are likely to visit Poland later this month, as Zelensky wants to present his 10-point peace plan, according to Polish media. (Euractiv, 02.02.23)
• “I will continue to phone Putin—because we have to keep talking to each other,” Scholz said.  He said often the phone calls were about “concrete issues” such as prisoner exchanges, Ukrainian grain exports and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (FT, 01.29.23)
• A poll conducted in Germany revealed that 80% of Germans say it is more important to end the war quickly with negotiations than for Ukraine to win. Only 18% disagree, according to a representative Forsa poll released last week, according to Thorsten Benner’s Twitter account. (RM, 01.31.23)
• Outgoing Czech President Milos Zeman has said Serbia's refusal to impose sanctions on Russia could be an advantage for the possible role of mediator in the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 01.30.23)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The share of Americans who say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine has grown from 7% in March 2022 to 26% in January 2023, according to Pew. The share of Americans who say the U.S. is not providing enough aid to Ukraine has decreased from 42% to 20% over the same period, while the share of Americans who say the U.S. is providing the right amount of aid decreased from 32% to 31%. The share of Americans who see the conflict as a major threat to U.S. interests declined from 50% to 35% in that period. (RM, 02.02.23)
• The U.S. is launching a series of ambitious technology, space and defense initiatives with India, in an effort designed to counter China in the Indo-Pacific and wean New Delhi off its reliance on Russia for weapons. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval met in Washington on Jan. 31 as the two countries unveiled cooperation in a number of areas, including quantum computing, artificial intelligence, 5G wireless networks and semiconductors. They also created a mechanism to facilitate joint weapons production. (FT, 01.31.23)
• Boris Johnson has claimed that Putin told him, "I don't want to hurt you, but with a missile, it would only take a minute," in a call ahead of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The former prime minister said the "extraordinary" conversation took place after he had visited Kyiv early last February in a last-ditch attempt to show Western support for Ukraine amid growing fears of a Russian assault. (Bloomberg, 01.30.23, WP, 01.30.23)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that Putin threatened Johnson with a missile attack. (WP, 01.30.23)
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signaled on Jan. 29 that Ankara may agree to Finland joining NATO ahead of Sweden, amid growing tensions with Stockholm. (Reuters, 01.29.23)
  • Finland’s foreign minister hinted that Russia may have been involved in last week’s Koran-burning protest that threatens to derail Sweden’s accession to NATO. (Bloomberg, 01.28.23)
  • Finland and Sweden remain committed to joining NATO at the same time despite Turkey's opposition. (Reuters, 02.02.23)
• On Jan. 26, Viktor Orban told journalists that Putin cannot afford to lose this war, in part because of next year’s Russian presidential elections. According to the American Conservative, Orban compared Ukraine to Afghanistan, calling it a “no man’s land,” and saying that “Russia’s goal is to make Ukraine an ungovernable wreck, so that the West cannot claim it as a prize.” (Meduza, 01.28.23)
  • The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on Hungary’s Ambassador to Ukraine, István Íjgyártó, to have a “frank conversation” following Orban’s remarks. (Meduza, 01.28.23)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• CIA director William Burns believes that the Chinese government remains committed to its partnership with Russia, CBS journalist Olivia Gazis said on Twitter. The journalist quoted Burns as saying while addressing an event at the Georgetown University that Beijing remains "committed" to the partnership with Rusia, albeit "very reluctant" to provide lethal arms, for example. (TASS, 02.02.23)
• Burns said on Feb. 2 the intelligence agency assesses that China’s President Xi Jinping has been a little sobered by the war in Ukraine, but that it would be a mistake to underestimate Beijing and Moscow’s commitment to partnership. Burns believes that China will be the most serious geopolitical threat to his country in the coming decades. (SPCM, 02.03.23, TASS, 02.02.23)
• "It is already written down in our declarations that although we do not create a military alliance, our relations are of a higher quality than military alliances in their classic sense, and they have no bounds or limits. And there are no taboo topics either. They are indeed the best in the history of both the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China, and the Russian Federation,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said of Russian-Chinese relations in an interview on Feb. 2. Lavrov hosted China's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu on Feb. 2 to discuss coordination within the U.N., BRICS and SCO. (Interfax, 02.02.23, TASS, 02.02.23)
• Russia has launched a broad diplomatic blitz to counter its image as a pariah state in the run-up to the anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine. The Russian government is anticipating a visit from Xi this spring, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Jan. 30. In the past week, Putin has also phoned Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to coordinate goals for the OPEC+ meeting of oil producers, and Lavrov met with counterparts from Egypt and Pakistan, after returning from a diplomatic trip crisscrossing Africa. (WP, 02.02.23, Time, 02.02.23) 
• China is watching Russia’s war in Ukraine and learning lessons that may influence future decisions, Stoltenberg said, stressing warnings about China’s behavior including its threats toward Taiwan. “If President Putin wins in Ukraine, this would send a message that authoritarian regimes can achieve their goals through brute force. This is dangerous,” Stoltenberg said at a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Stoltenberg and Kishida have pledged to strengthen ties, saying Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its growing military cooperation with China had created the most tense security environment since World War II. (Bloomberg, 01.31.23, Reuters, 01.31.23)
• Moscow boosted imports of technologies critical to its war in Ukraine including semiconductors and microchips from China, according to a report by the D.C.-based Free Russia Foundation. China sold $3.3 million worth of drones to Russia last year, according to the report. Russia last year increased its imports of semiconductors and microchips by around 34%, with China emerging as the major source. That has helped Russia increase its overall import of chips to $2.45 billion in 2022 from $1.82 billion in 2021, despite Western sanctions targeting that trade. (WSJ, 01.30.23)
• China hit back at a report that the U.S. has confronted it with evidence suggesting some of its state-owned firms may be helping Russia’s war in Ukraine, saying Washington should stop sending weapons if it wants the conflict to end. (Bloomberg, 01.30.23)
• China’s piped gas imports were 57% more expensive in December on a metric-ton basis than in September 2021. Prices for liquefied natural-gas imports were 49% higher, according to data provider CEIC. (WSJ, 02.01.23)
• Zelensky hasn’t spoken by phone with Xi since the Russian special military operation started last February, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. (TASS, 02.03.23)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Putin vowed on Feb. 2 that Russia would win its war in Ukraine, using a speech in the city formerly known as Stalingrad to compare his invasion with the Soviets’ defeat of the Nazis in a decisive World War II battle. “It’s hard to believe, but it’s a fact, that we are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks,” the Russian leader said. “We aren’t sending our tanks to their borders,” Putin said. “But we have a way to respond, and it will not just end with the use of armored vehicles. Everyone should understand this.” (NYT, 02.02.23, MT/AFP, 02.02.23)
• The United States accused Russia of not complying with its obligations under the New START treaty. The State Department said Russia is refusing to facilitate inspections on its territory as required under the treaty. (WP, 02.01.23)
  • "There now isn't a single treaty that Russia has not or is not violating," said Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. "The Joint Staff needs to assume Russia has or will be breaching New START caps. I want to see the plans for how the U.S. will respond." (WSJ, 02.01.23)
  • NATO called on Russia to fulfill its obligations under New START, it said in a statement on Feb. 3. (Reuters, 02.03.23)
• Russia has denied U.S. accusations that it is violating the New START treaty. Peskov said on Feb. 1 that the U.S. had “destroyed the legal framework for arms control and security” and said its “hostile” backing of Kyiv after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a strategic threat for Moscow. (FT, 02.01.23)
• Russia's deputy foreign minister said in an interview published Jan. 30 that it was "quite possible" the New START treaty would end after 2026. "This is quite a possible scenario," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. Moscow’s Ambassador to Washington Antonov said, however, that Russia remains committed to New START. (Reuters, 01.30.23, MT/AFP, 02.01.23)
• The Czech Republic’s incoming president, Petr Pavel, said the only limit to weapons deliveries should be nuclear arms, signaling support for sending fighter jets. The retired NATO general also said nuclear arms among NATO allies should deter any considerations for using such weapons by the Kremlin. (Bloomberg, 02.03.23)

Counterterrorism:

• A Moscow court has sentenced the head of a prominent Islamic publishing house to 17 years in prison on charges of financing a terrorist organization, Russia’s Investigative Committee said Feb. 3. Aslambek Ezhaev was found guilty of transferring more than 34 million rubles ($483,200) to people connected with the Islamic State terrorist group. (MT/AFP, 02.03.23)
• Russia will begin "inspections of vehicles using technical means for detecting weapons and explosives" in regions where "a level of terrorist threat has been confirmed,” according to a presidential decree published Jan. 31. Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has been at a "yellow" level terrorist threat, which corresponds to confirmed information about a planned terrorist act, in a number of regions that border or are near Ukraine. (Reuters, 01.31.23)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• Kremlin-linked Russian businessman Vladislav Klyushin, who was extradited from Switzerland to the United States in December 2021, has gone on trial in Boston on charges of involvement in a global scheme to trade shares based on confidential information from hackers. (RFE/RL, 01.31.23)

Energy exports from CIS:

• On Feb. 5, two months after the EU banned most crude oil from Russia, the bloc will expand the embargo to Russian supplies of diesel and gasoline. The coming ban could strain energy markets and crimp Russia’s output. Diesel fuel is critical to Europe’s economy, powering not only trucks delivering goods but also more than 40% of cars in the EU. Last year, Russia supplied about half of Europe’s diesel imports, around 700,000 barrels a day. These volumes may be hard to quickly replace. (NYT, 02.02.23)
• European Union member states agreed to impose a cap of $100 per barrel on sales of Russian diesel to third countries as part of an effort to limit Moscow’s revenues.  (Bloomberg, 02.03.23) 
• Russian crude supplies to Poland via the Druzhba oil pipeline are expected to more than halve this month to 220,000 tons as the European country winds down dealings with Moscow. (Bloomberg, 02.03.23)
• The fleet Russia can use to dodge the price cap now counts 360-odd ships, equivalent to 16% of the global crude tanker inventory. Were all Western ships to shun Russian crude barrels, the shadow fleet would still be sufficient to keep Russia’s crude exports flowing at current levels, says Reid l’Anson of Kpler, a data firm. (The Economist, 01.29.23)
• Russia’s ban on oil exports to countries and companies that adhere to a Western price cap aiming to constrain the Kremlin’s energy revenues took effect Feb. 1. (MT/AFP, 02.01.23)
• The flow of Russian gas through pipelines to the EU and U.K. last month was almost 90% lower than in January 2021, according to commodities data firm ICIS. (WSJ, 02.03.23)
• Exports to Europe by Gazprom plunged to the level of the Soviet period in January due to more attractive gas prices on the spot market, BCS World of Investment said in a report. (TASS, 02.01.23)
• Bulgarian President Rumen Radev and his Serbian counterpart, Alexander Vucic, have launched the construction of a gas pipeline that will link the two countries and help ease the region's dependence on Russian supplies. (RFE/RL, 02.01.23)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A Chinese-American animal rights activist has been jailed for walking a young cow near the Kremlin. Alisa Dey, 34, told the state-run TASS news agency she had bought the calf online “so it wouldn’t be eaten.” Police detained her as she walked with the animal, reportedly chanting "Animals are not food," on Red Square. (MT/AFP, 02.01.23)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The Russian economy is predicted to grow 0.3% in 2023 despite setbacks from unprecedented Western sanctions over the Ukraine invasion, according to data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Jan. 30. Russia’s projected economic growth stands in sharp contrast with the 2.3% contraction forecast by the IMF in October and marks an improvement from the 2.2% decline recorded by the sanctions-hit economy in 2022. If the 2023 projection is realized, it would put Russia ahead of Germany and the U.K., whose economies are projected to grow by 0.1% and shrink by 0.6%, respectively. The World Bank’s latest estimate is that Russia’s real GDP will shrink by 3.3% in 2023. (MT/AFP, 01.31.23)
• Analysts polled by Russia’s central bank expect GDP to contract by 1.5% this year.  The survey does not represent Russia’s central bank’s position but is behind its official predictions. (FT, 02.03.23)
• Surging military production is helping keep Russian industry going strong. Industrial output ended 2022 down only 0.7%, according to a consensus of forecasts compiled by Bloomberg ahead of the release of official figures. Finished metal goods, which includes arms, bombs and ammunition, grew 5% over the first 11 months of last year. Production of computers, electronic and optical products, which economists say is likely to include parts for aircraft and rocket engines and optical sights and other systems, showed 4% growth. At the same time cars were down nearly 50%, while the textile and wood industries were off 10% or more and chemical output dropped 4%. (Bloomberg, 02.01.23)
• Russia’s energy revenues of 426 billion rubles ($6 billion) in January were 54% lower than they were the previous month, and 46% lower than the same month last year, the Russian finance ministry said Feb. 3. Russia’s finance ministry sold 54.5 billion rubles in renminbi last month to offset the revenue shortfall, while over the four weeks to March 6 it plans to sell 160.2 billion rubles. (FT, 02.03.23)
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Rosatom Director General Alexei Likhachev have discussed goals for the future after the company claimed "record results in almost all areas" in 2022. Likhachev said Rosatom continued to be part of the ITER international nuclear fusion project, and said the company was working on fourth generation "fast reactors, lead-cooled reactors." (WNN, 02.02.23)
• Hidden unemployment, including downtime, unpaid leave and partial employment, hit a record of 4.66 million people in the third quarter of 2022, growing by 7.5% year on year, analysts at consulting network FinExpertiza wrote. (FT, 01.29.23)
• Elvira Nabiullina, Russia’s central bank governor, is leading a push to roll back most of a decision to make reams of economic data classified, taken in the early weeks of last year’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. (FT, 01.29.23)
• Putin’s address to the Russian parliament will probably take place on Feb. 20 or 21, according to Meduza. (RM, 02.03.23)
• Celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad, Putin on Feb. 2 evoked Red Army glory in World War II in an attempt to justify his war in Ukraine. In a fiery speech, Putin drew false parallels, claiming that Russia was once again in a military conflict with Germany and would again triumph over its enemies. (WP, 02.03.23)
  • A new monument to Soviet leader Joseph Stalin was unveiled in the southern Russian city of Volgograd on Feb. 1. (MT/AFP, 02.01.23, MT/AFP, 01.31.23)
• From December to January, the proportion of Russians who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction increased slightly from 63% to 66%, according to Levada Center polls. Twenty-four percent of respondents believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction (unchanged from December), and Putin’s approval rating has not changed much, rising from 81% in December to 82% in January. (RM, 02.02.23)
• In 2022, Russia ranked 137 out of the 180 countries listed in Transparency International’s annual corruption index, with a score of 28/100, moving from its 2021 spot of 136 with a score of 29/100, with the lower score indicating more corruption. (RM, 01.31.23)
• Russia scored 2.28 out of 10, ranking 146th out of 165 states included in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s annual Democracy Index. (Kyiv Independent, 02.02.23)
• Most of Russia’s 47 officially recognized small indigenous ethnic minority groups are shrinking in size, according to a report published by independent media outlet iStories on Jan. 30. (MT/AFP, 01.30.23)
• The self-exiled supreme lama of Russia’s Republic of Kalmykia, who was the first religious leader in the country to publicly condemned Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, has announced his resignation. after Russia added him to its registry of "foreign agents." (RFE/RL, 01.30.23) 
• Jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has been ordered to spend six months in a designated punishment cell, he said Feb. 1 as his supporters expressed growing concern that his life was in danger. The EU, marking the second anniversary of Navalny’s "politically motivated" sentencing, says it is "deeply disturbed" over reports of his treatment behind bars. (RFE/RL, 02.03.23, MT/AFP, 02.01.23)
• Navalny’s team released an investigation into European real estate and State Duma deputies from United Russia, who are actively calling for the persecution of the departed Russians. One of the ideologists of United Russia, Oleg Morozov, has a villa in Montenegro. The daughter of another United Russia activist Oleg Matveychev, Lydia Slutskovsky, lives in Geneva. The wife of political consultant and coordinator of the United Russia expert council Konstantin Kostin owns a villa in Tuscany. (Istories, 02.03.23)
• The share of Russians who have a negative attitude toward Boris Yeltsin grew from 35% in 2015 to about 50% in 2023, according to Levada. (RM, 02.03.23)
• One of Russia's best-known TV journalists, Alexander Nevzorov, has been sentenced in absentia to eight years in prison for allegedly discrediting the armed forces involved in the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.01.23)
• At least 1,000 Russian journalists have fled their country in the nearly 12 months since Moscow invaded Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 02.03.23)

Defense and aerospace:

• A court in the Russian Urals city of Yekaterinburg has sentenced Vladislav Borisenko to 12 years in prison for throwing Molotov cocktails at a military conscription center in the Siberian autonomous district of Khanty-Mansi. (RFE/RL, 01.31.23) 
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The former governor of Russia’s Khabarovsk region, Sergei Furgal, was found guilty of murder by a Moscow region court on Feb. 2, according to state-run news agency RIA Novosti. (MT/AFP, 02.02.23)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The Central African Republic, Chad and Sudan have agreed with the help of Russian troops to secure a gold-rich region in the Central African Republic rife with armed rebel groups, the latest sign of Moscow’s expanding influence on the continent. (Bloomberg, 02.01.23)
• France will withdraw its military from Burkina Faso within a month following a request from the West African country’s governing junta. The removal is the latest sign of the former colonial power’s collapsing influence in the region—a development that Russia has eagerly exploited. (Bloomberg, 01.29.23)
• Russia said on Jan. 29 that it will not hold annual talks with Japan on renewing a pact that allows Japanese fishermen to operate near disputed islands, saying Japan has taken anti-Russian measures. (Reuters, 01.29.23)
• In a rare move, Austria’s Foreign Ministry expelled four Russian diplomats on Feb. 2 due to activities that violated their mandate. It didn’t elaborate on what those activities were. (Bloomberg, 02.02.23)
• Parliamentarians from 20 countries have urged Austria to bar Russian delegates from attending the OSCE parliamentary assembly to be held in Vienna on Feb. 23-24. (MT/AFP, 02.02.23)
• Bulgarian investigative journalist and director of the Bellingcat investigative reporting group Christo Grozev is being forced to relocate from Austria, his home of nearly 20 years, due to the alleged threat posed to him by the Russian security services. (MT/AFP, 02.01.23)
• Media reports in Slovenia said over the weekend that the Intelligence and Security Service had detained two foreigners suspected of spying for Russia's military intelligence. (RFE/RL, 01.30.23)
• The head of the Russian Republic of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov criticized Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Jan. 28 for comments he made in support of Chechnya’s independence. (MT/AFP, 01.30.23)
• Russia's Foreign Ministry on Jan. 28 called for "maximum restraint" following violence in Israel and the West Bank that marked another escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. (MT/AFP, 01.28.23)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian officials announced high-profile searches, firings and investigations on Feb. 1 just ahead of an EU summit, in what appears to be the second round in Zelensky's ongoing campaign to crack down on the corruption that could undermine support for his country. (WP, 02.01.23)
  • Law-enforcement agents early Feb. 1 raided the home of wealthy businessman Igor Kolomoisky. SBU said the house was searched in connection with alleged embezzlement worth $1 billion by the former management of Ukrainian oil producer Ukrnafta and refiner Ukrtatnafta then partly backed by Kolomoisky. (Bloomberg, 02.01.23, WP, 02.01.23, FT, 02.02.23)
  • David Arakhamia, leader of Zelensky's party in parliament and a close adviser to the president, said that "notes of suspicion," indicating the opening of an investigation, had been delivered to top officials in the country's Defense Ministry. On Feb. 2, a Ukrainian court approved the pre-trial detention of ex-deputy defense minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov, who has been accused of profiting from inflated prices on food the ministry has been buying for soldiers, according to Ukrainian media. (WP, 02.01.23, RM, 02.02.23)
    • According to Ukrainian investigators, an adviser to the Deputy Minister of Defense colluded with officials of one of the private structures last year to steal funds allocated for the purchase of goods for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, causing more than UAH 1.7 billion in damages to the state. (Ukrainskaya Pravda, 02.03.23)
  • An unnamed deputy chief of the Central Military Medical Commission of the Medical Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly offered a conscript assistance in doctoring his medical and military record for $5,000. (Ukrainskaya Pravda, 02.03.23)
  • Tax offices and the home of Kyiv’s tax authority have been searched and the entire management of the country's customs service dismissed. The head of the Kyiv tax service, Oksana Datiy, was dismissed after investigators found she had multiple homes and luxury cars. (WP, 02.01.23, Bloomberg, 02.01.23, FT, 02.02.23)
  • Additional raids included one targeting a top tax official for Kyiv linked to $1.4 million worth of assets being probed, the SBU said. (Bloomberg, 02.01.23)
  • Arakhamia said properties belonging to former interior minister Arsen Avakov had been searched. Avakov said it was in connection with a helicopter crash, in which Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky and other top officials were killed earlier this month in Kyiv. (WP, 02.01.23)
  • The Security Service of Ukraine notified former head of the Kherson regional administration, Gennady Laguta, that he is suspected of fraud and forgery. One of the episodes that the Ukrainian special service is currently investigating concerns the alleged illegal seizure of a car. (Ukrainskaya Pravda, 02.03.23)
    • Top EU officials have praised Ukraine’s most recent anti-corruption drive. (FT, 02.02.23)
• Zelensky said at a joint news conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel Feb. 3 in Kyiv he wanted to begin accession talks to the EU this year. (Bloomberg, 02.03.23)
  • Senior diplomats from EU capitals are concerned that unfeasible Ukrainian expectations—including EU accession by 2026—have been encouraged rather than tempered by Brussels’ top officials. Multiple member state officials told FT the commission needed to make clear to Ukraine that there were huge hurdles ahead of beginning formal accession negotiations, which themselves can take a decade or more. (FT, 01.31.23)
• In 2022, Ukraine ranked 116 among 180 countries listed in Transparency International’s annual corruption index with a score of 33/100, a slight improvement from the 2021 index, where it ranked 122 with a score of 32/100. (RM, 01.31.23)
• The Bulgarian National Assembly has approved legislation declaring the 1932-33 Holodomor famine caused by the policies of the Soviet government led by Joseph Stalin a genocide. (RFE/RL, 02.01.23)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Jan. 31 urged Putin to take the steps "necessary" to reopen a key transit corridor between Armenia and the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Since mid-December, a group of Azerbaijanis has been blocking the only road into Karabakh from Armenia to protest what they claim is illegal mining by the region's Armenian population. As a result of the blockade, the mountainous region of some 120,000 people has been running short of food, medicines and fuel. (MT/AFP, 01.31.23)
• A representative of Armenia told judges at the International Court of Justice on Jan. 30 that a blockade of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region by neighboring Azerbaijan was designed to allow "ethnic cleansing.” The Lachin Corridor is the only route whereby Armenia can provide food, fuel and medical supplies to Nagorno-Karabakh. The corridor has been blocked since Dec. 12, when protesters claiming to be environmental activists stopped traffic by setting up tents. Azerbaijan denies any blockade, saying the activists are staging a legitimate protest against illegal mining activity. (Reuters, 01.30.23)
• Azerbaijan will evacuate embassy staff and family members from Iran on Jan. 29, the Foreign Ministry said, two days after a gunman shot dead a security guard and wounded two other people in an attack Baku branded an "act of terrorism." Police in Tehran have said they have arrested a suspect. Iranian authorities condemned the Jan. 27 incident but said the gunman appeared to have had a personal, not a political, motive. (Reuters, 01.29.23)
• Azerbaijan's Interior Ministry has detained around 40 people it suspects of being part of an Iranian spy network that used religion to push pro-Iranian propaganda. Local media reported on Feb. 1 that the suspects were arrested in Baku and other regions of the country as a result of the operation conducted by the ministry. Some reports a day earlier put the number of people detained at seven. Law enforcement bodies have neither confirmed nor rejected the reports. (RFE/RL, 02.01.23)
• Lavrov on Feb. 2 claimed that Western states were considering Moldova for the role of “another anti-Russia,” drawing parallels to Ukraine. Lavrov also said that the West is pushing Georgia to become a Kremlin “irritant” by enforcing Western sanctions against Russia. (NYT, 02.02.23)
• Georgia’s president said Russia must be required to abandon its nearly 15-year-long occupation of her nation’s territory as part of an eventual peace deal to end the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. “Russia has to learn where its borders are,” President Salome Zourabichvili said. (Bloomberg, 02.01.23)
• World leaders have called for the release of jailed former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili after he appeared emaciated at a court hearing. (BBC, 02.02.23)
  • Saakashvili, who is being treated in a private clinic in Tbilisi for health problems, is being transferred to an intensive-care unit, his associates say, a claim the hospital's personnel are denying. (RFE/RL, 01.31.23)
  • Saakashvili has asked for "the opportunity for adequate treatment" during a court hearing on having his sentence suspended so he can be transferred abroad for more intensive care. The imprisoned ex-president has been treated at the Vivamedi facility since May 2022. Doctors said earlier this month that Saakashvili contracted a mild form of COVID and therefore does not need treatment in intensive care. (RFE/RL, 02.01.23)
• A meeting on Afghanistan between the secretaries of the security councils of Central Asian countries, Pakistan, India and China will be held in Moscow next week. (TASS, 02.03.23)
• Residents of Russia sent money to accounts in Central Asian and the Caucasus at the greatest rate in more than a decade as hundreds of thousands of people fled the country following its invasion of Ukraine, the RBC news agency reported. Residents of Russia last year transferred $2 billion to Georgia, the largest since 2012, and more than $2.5 billion to Kyrgyzstan, the biggest since 2005, RBC reported. More than $3 billion was transferred to Armenia. Uzbekistan received $14.5 billion, more the double the total for 2021, while Kazakhstan received $775 million. (RFE/RL, 01.28.23)
• Russia’s largest airline, Aeroflot, is poised to resume regular scheduled flights to Kazakhstan, despite a substantial chunk of its fleet being at the heart of legal action from plane-leasing firms seeking the return of their aircraft. The airline said in a statement on Jan. 27 that it is already selling tickets for flights from Russia to Astana, Almaty and Atyrau, which are due to restart on Feb. 1. (Eurasianet, 01.30.23)
• In a speech at the signing of a historic border agreement between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in Bishkek, Uzbek leader Shavkat Mirziyoev heaped praise on his Kyrgyz counterpart, Sadyr Japarov. "I want to tell you that we have no problematic issues. In the 31 years of the independent history of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, this is the first time there has been this level of mutual relations," Mirziyoev said at his pomp-filled state visit on Jan. 26-27. "I want to give special thanks to my respected colleague Sadyr.... If not for his political will, we would have not reached today's result. We could have said like we used to that we will solve these problems tomorrow or the day after. Well, tomorrow lasted 30 years, and the problems weren't solved." (RFE/RL, 01.31.23)
• A court in the southwestern Uzbek city of Bukhara has handed sentences to 22 people—including lawyer and journalist Dauletmurat Tajimuratov—accused of undermining the constitutional order for taking part in unprecedented anti-government protests in the autonomous Karakalpakstan region last year. (RFE/RL, 01.31.23)
• An IAEA team of experts has concluded a five-day Site and External Events Design (SEED) mission to Uzbekistan, which plans to build its first nuclear power plant in the southeast of the country. (WNN, 01.31.23)
• Putin on Jan. 31 backed a plan to set up joint military training centers with Belarus, with fears mounting that Minsk could enter the Ukraine conflict to fight with Moscow. In a decree published Jan. 31, Putin tasked the defense and foreign ministers to conduct talks with Belarus and sign an agreement to establish the facilities. The document did not specify where they would be based. (MT/AFP, 01.31.23)
• Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko arrived on Jan. 30 in Zimbabwe on a visit to cement economic and political ties between the two countries that are both close allies of Russia. (AP, 01.30.23)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• “In essence, it does not matter how big the Russian losses are, since their overall human resource is much greater than Ukraine’s,” Kusti Salm, Estonia’s deputy defense minister, said. (NYT, 02.02.23)