6 Things to Know

1. In the past month, Russia captured 199 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which constitutes an area roughly equivalent to 9 Manhattan islands, according to the Jan. 29, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. This week saw the Russian military claim to have seized Vremivka, Chasiv Yar, Novoandriivka, Novovasylivka and Velyka Novosilka in Ukraine and to have regained Nikolayevo-Darino and Dvorichna in Russia’s Kursk region. The capture of Vremivka, Novoandriivka and Velyka Novosilka were confirmed by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group this week as speculation mounted in Kyiv on whether the country’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov did recently tell MPs that “if there are no serious negotiations by the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may begin.”
   1. The seizure of Velyka Novosilka, which has been described as a “most important fortified area” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region, underscores the effectiveness of a tactic that Russian forces have been employing to take one town after another: using its personnel advantage to attack relentlessly, gradually trapping Ukrainian forces in a pincer movement and forcing them to retreat to avoid encirclement, according to NYT. “From a tactical perspective, their approach was correct—they understood their capabilities and advantages and used them effectively,” Maj. Ivan Sekach, a press officer for the Ukrainian military’s 110th Brigade told this newspaper with regard to the battle for Velyka Novosilka. “It would not be accurate to claim that the Russians don’t know how to fight.”
2. Polls by Ukraine’s Socis shows that the share of Ukrainians favoring a temporary or a permanent stop to the fighting climbed from 44.3% in February 2024 to 70.1% in December 2024 (highest that year). In contrast, the share of those in Ukraine who favored continuation of the hostilities dropped from 44.5% to 27.8% in the same period of time. Of those who favored a stop to fighting in December, some 50.6% supported “search for a compromise solution with the involvement of leaders of other countries to end the war” while 19.5% favored “suspension of hostilities and temporary freezing of the conflict along the current line of contact,” according to the results of the Socis poll cited by Strana.Today. In addition, polls by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that the share of those who agreed that Ukraine may give up some territory in order to achieve peace and in December 2024.
3. Ukrainian authorities said a criminal probe has been launched into Defense Minister Rustem Umerov for his failure to comply with an order to extend the contract of chief of the Defense Procurement Agency (AOZ) Maryna Bezrukova, RFE/RL reported. Meanwhile, Bezrukova—whose agency acquired over $7 billion in armaments last year and who appeared to have been reinstated in the AOZ as of Jan. 29—said she would remain in her position. She pointed out that her contract had been renewed by her agency's supervisory board and that Umerov had no right to override that decision, NYT reported. The row has sparked an outcry from Ukrainian lawmakers and anti-corruption activists, as well as Western diplomats, who warned that any sign of dysfunction could play into Russian hands and reinforce concerns within Trump’s circle about corruption in Ukraine’s military supply chain, FT reported.
4. Russia’s efforts to secure the new Syrian authorities’ consent to keep its two major military facilities in this Arab republic have led to no public breakthrough this week. A team of high-ranking Russian diplomats visited Damascus to meet Hassan Abdul-Ghani to hear him request that Moscow hand over former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and provide funds for the reconstruction of the country. Russian diplomats responded to these requests by saying Russia was prepared to help Syria with postwar reconstruction efforts, but admitted to making no progress in talks over the future of its strategically important air base at Khmeimim and its naval facility at the port of Tartus, FT reported. Meanwhile, Russian forces were reported to have continued to remove military equipment from Tartus this week, according to Meduza.
5. Russia's oil and gas revenues jumped by 26% last year to $108 billion even as daily oil and gas condensate production declined in 2024 by 2.8% compared to 2023, according to Russian government officials cited by Reuters. In 2024, Russia exported a record 33.6 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a 4% increase from the previous year, according to Meduza. The past year saw German national energy company Sefe alone buy 58 cargoes of Russian LNG through the French port of Dunkirk last year—more than six times the figure in 2023, according to FT. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs analysts released an estimate that the latest round of U.S. sanctions against Russia haven't had a significant impact on the country's oil exports so far, according to WSJ.
6. The EU has agreed to renew its existing sanctions against Russia for another six months after Hungary dropped its veto threat, FT reported. In addition, the EU is proposing a new package, which would reportedly include a phased ban on imports of Russian aluminum, cut 15 Russian banks off from the SWIFT banking system, target more than 70 dark-fleet vessels involved in shipping Russian oil and impose restrictions on several pro-Kremlin media outlets. The EU is also discussing whether to impose sanctions on the remaining agricultural products coming from Russia and Belarus that aren’t already facing duties, as well as some nitrogen-based fertilizers, according to Bloomberg. At the same time, European officials are debating whether Russian pipeline gas sales to the EU should be restarted as part of a potential settlement to end the war against Ukraine, according to FT.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The Trump administration’s Office of Management and Budget has issued a 56-page spreadsheet that detailed the suspension of funding for thousands of programs. They included most of the major U.S. efforts to reduce the amount of nuclear fuel that terrorists might seize, to guard against biological weapon attacks and to manage initiatives around the globe to curb the spread of nuclear arms. Asked about the suspension of counter nuclear programs during her first press briefing at the White House, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said that “this is not a ban.” “This is a temporary pause and a freeze to ensure that all of the money going out from Washington, D.C., is in line with the president’s agenda,” she said. (NYT, 01.28.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korean soldiers who joined their Russian allies in battle against Ukrainian forces have been pulled off the front lines after suffering heavy casualties, according to Ukrainian and U.S. officials. The North Korean troops, sent to bolster Russian forces trying to push back a Ukrainian offensive inside Russia’s borders, have not been seen at the front for about two weeks, the officials said after requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive military and intelligence matters. The American officials said the decision to pull the North Korean troops off the front line may not be a permanent one. (NYT, 01.30.25)
• In the Kursk region of Russia, the presence of North Korean troops has not been noted for about three weeks, according to Colonel of the Special Operations Forces (SAF) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Kondratenko in a commentary to Ukrainska Pravda Jan. 31. (Korrespondent.net, 01.31.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• On Jan. 31, law enforcement authorities in Russia accused Ukrainian troops of killing 22 civilians in an occupied village of the Kursk region. AFP could not immediately verify the claims, and Ukraine has not responded. (AFP, 01.31.25)
• Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova, speaking in the State Duma on Jan. 30, recounted conversations with residents of the Kursk region who had been taken to Ukraine and later returned to Russia. According to Moskalkova, these individuals shared experiences of Ukrainian soldiers offering them their own food. (Meduza, 01.31.25)
• Russian officials met this week with the families of those trapped behind Ukrainian lines in the embattled Kursk region, coming amid mounting criticism of the government's efforts to secure their return. A missing persons list compiled by Russian authorities initially reported around 500 people unaccounted for in the Ukrainian-occupied zone. (MT/AFP, 01.29.25)
• This winter was predicted to be one of the toughest ones of the war yet. In a worst-case scenario, blackouts were expected to reach 20 hours a day. Greenpeace warned in November that Ukraine’s power grid faced a "heightened risk of catastrophic failure.” But thanks to a combination of unseasonably warm weather, and Ukraine’s ability to adapt to a third year of Russian campaigns against its energy system, the worst has not come to pass. (Kyiv Independent, 01.31.25)
• USAID has been ordered to suspend projects in Ukraine amid a broad U.S. foreign aid freeze, a move that could halt spending to help the war-torn country repair vital energy infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks. (Bloomberg, 01.26.25)
• The Trump administration's orders have sent a chill through humanitarian organizations in Ukraine, which depend heavily on such assistance. Several Ukraine-focused humanitarian organizations say they have been forced to suspend operations, including assistance to war veterans and internally displaced people. The United States, the largest single source of aid to Ukraine, has provided more than $37 billion in humanitarian aid, development assistance and direct budget support since the beginning of the war nearly three years ago through USAID. (NYT, 01.30.25, NYT, 01.28.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In past month (Dec. 25, 2024–Jan. 28, 2025) Russia gained 199 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which constitutes an area roughly equivalent to 9 Manhattan islands, according to the Jan. 29, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.¹
• On Jan. 25, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied  Vremivka, and advanced in Velyka Novosilka. (RM, 01.31.25)
• On Jan. 25, Russian occupational authorities in southern Ukraine said that a Ukrainian strike on a Moscow-held village in the Kherson region killed three people. (MT/AFP, 01.25.25)
• On the night of Jan 25-26, Ukraine launched multiple drone attacks across three areas of Russia including the Ryazan region, home to one of the country’s largest oil refineries. Russia’s Defense Ministry said a total of 15 unmanned aircraft were shot down overnight in the regions of Kursk and Belgorod, near the Ukrainian border, as well as Ryazan in central Russia. (Bloomberg, 01.26.25)
• On Jan. 26, Russian troops captured Velyka Novosilka, the most important fortified area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region. Its capture by Russian troops will allow them to take a more advantageous position for an offensive in the southeast of Dnipropetrovsk region, as well as for the potential capture of the cities of Gulyaipole and Orekhov in Zaporizhzhia. Moscow’s troops used the same pincer tactic on Velyka Novosilka that has enabled their recent capture of town after town in eastern Ukraine. On Jan. 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group confirmed in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Velyka Novosilka. (Istories, 01.26.25, NYT, 01.29.25, RM, 01.31.25)
  • Although the gain of Velyka Novosilka by the Russian troops is modest compared with Russia’s recent seizure of nearby Ukrainian strongholds like Vuhledar and Kurakhove, it underscores the effectiveness of a tactic that Moscow has been employing to take one town after another in eastern Ukraine: using its overwhelming personnel advantage to attack relentlessly, gradually trapping Ukrainian forces in a pincer movement and forcing them to retreat to avoid encirclement. (NYT, 01.29.25)
    • “From a tactical perspective, their approach was correct — they understood their capabilities and advantages and used them effectively,” Maj. Ivan Sekach, a press officer for the Ukrainian military’s 110th Brigade, which has been defending the area, said in an interview. “It would not be accurate to claim that the Russians don’t know how to fight.” (NYT, 01.29.25)
  • The capture of Velyka Novosilka, which had a prewar population of 5,000, was largely enabled by the fall of Vuhledar in October. (NYT, 01.29.25)
• On Jan. 26, Ukrainian forces struck Russian long-range drone storage facilities in Russia’s Oryol Oblast again. (ISW, 01.27.25)
• On Jan. 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replaced Khortytsia Group of Forces Commander Big. Gen. Andrii Hnatov with Ground Forces Commander Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi. (ISW, 01.27.25)
• On Jan. 27, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) denied media reports that its head, Kyrylo Budanov, predicted serious consequences for the existence of Ukraine unless negotiations begin by the summer during a confidential parliamentary meeting. Although HUR’s statement did not specify the alleged quote, an assessment attributed to Budanov began circulating in the Ukrainian media earlier on Jan. 27. "If there are no serious negotiations by the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may begin," an undisclosed source told Ukrainska Pravda, referring to an alleged statement by Budanov during a closed-door parliamentary meeting. (Kyiv Independent, 01.27.25)
  • The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has initiated a criminal investigation into the unauthorized disclosure of state secrets following the publication of statements attributed to Budanov. The investigation pertains to individuals entrusted with classified information during a closed session of the Verkhovna Rada. On Jan. 27, Ukrainska Pravda reported that Budanov, in a confidential meeting with parliament members, emphasized the necessity of initiating peace negotiations before the summer of 2025 to ensure the country's continued existence. (Meduza, 01.31.25) The initiation of the investigation into the leak may be interpreted as that Budanov did offer an estimate of when “very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may begin.”
• On Jan. 27, Russia's military said that its forces regained control of Nikolayevo-Darino, a small village captured by Ukrainian troops during their cross-border offensive into the southwestern Kursk region last year. (MT/AFP, 01.27.25)
• On Jan. 28, Russia's Defense Ministry said its forces "liberated" the Kharkiv region’s town of Dvorichna. Dvorichna, located across the strategic Oskil river, was seized by Russian forces at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, before being re-taken by Kyiv months later in a shock counteroffensive. (MT/AFP, 01.28.25)
• On the night of Jan 28-29, Ukraine launched one of its largest drone attacks across nine Russian regions. Kyiv’s forces attacked Lukoil PJSC’s Norsi refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, causing a fire at the facility, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a post on Facebook. Russia’s Defense Ministry said a total of 104 drones were shot down across nine regions, but didn’t officially confirm the attack on the refinery. (Bloomberg, 01.29.25, MT/AFP, 01.29.25)
• On the night of Jan 29-30, a Russian drone attack on Ukraine killed at least four people in the northeastern city of Sumy. (MT/AFP, 01.30.25)
• On the night of Jan 28-29, Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike at the Russian oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and reportedly hit a Russian arsenal in Tver Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on Jan. 29 that elements of Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate and Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Kstovo and caused a fire. (ISW, 01.29.25)
• On Jan. 29, the Russian MoD confirmed in a post that Lt. Gen. Alexander Sanchik is the commander of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces. (ISW, 01.29.25)
• On Jan. 30, the key eastern Ukrainian stronghold of Chasiv Yar was reported to have fallen to advancing Russian forces, five Ukrainian and European military and government sources have independently confirmed to The Moscow Times. While neither the Ukrainian nor Russian militaries have confirmed the city’s capture, The Moscow Times’ sources on the ground report that Ukrainian forces have been pushed to the outskirts. Chasiv Yar, a strategically important hilltop city in the Donetsk region, had been under relentless Russian assault for nearly a year. (MT/AFP, 01.29.25)
• On Jan. 30, Ukraine’s Defense Forces regained positions near Udachne while the Russian forces occupied Novoandriivka, and advanced in Nelipivka, Kotlynove and near Shevchenko. (UNN, 01.30.25)
• On Jan. 30, a Russian drone attack that Zelenskyy called "a horrible tragedy" struck a residential building in the Ukrainian regional capital Sumy, officials said, killing at least nine and injuring 13 others, including a child. (RFE/RL, 01.30.25)
• On Jan. 31 Russia claimed it had captured another village in its relentless offensive in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region and as it closes in on the critical Ukrainian logistics hub of Pokrovsk after almost three years of war. The Russian claim that its forces took Novovasylivka could not be independently confirmed, and Ukrainian officials made no immediate comment. (WP, 01.31.25)
• On Jan. 31, Russian forces launched a missile attack on the historic center of Odessa. The Ukrainian Air Force also warned of the potential use of ballistic missiles by Russian forces. No further details on casualties or damage have been provided yet. (Ukrinform, 01.31.25)
• On the night of Jan. 30-31, Ukrainian drones targeted a major oil refinery in the Volga region, marking the third overnight attack on Russian downstream facilities in a week. The scale of any resulting damage was unclear. The governor of the Volgograd region — home to large refinery run by Lukoil PJSC — said a worker was hospitalized. This refinery is one of the 10 largest oil refineries in Russia in terms of capacity and a major supplier of oil products to the Russian Army. It processes around 14 million tons of oil annually to produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. (Bloomberg, 01.31.25, RFE/RL, 01.31.25)
• There are currently more than 400,000 Russians facing about 250,000 Ukrainians on the front line, and the gap between the armies is growing, according to the military analyst familiar with Western assessments. (NYT, 01.23.25) 
• More than 20 Americans are missing in action on the front lines in Ukraine, with a spike in casualties over the past six months as foreigners fill urgent gaps in the country’s embattled defenses, according to a CNN investigation. The bodies of at least five American volunteers who signed up to the Ukrainian military could not be retrieved from the battlefield after being killed in action in the past six months, CNN found. Two of these were repatriated from Russian-occupied territory on Jan. 31 to Ukrainian soil after lengthy negotiations. (CNN, 01.30.25)
• Australian citizen Oscar Jenkins, who fought for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is in Russian captivity, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong announced. “The Australian government has received confirmation from Russia that Oscar Jenkins is alive and in custody,” The Guardian quoted Wong as saying. (Meduza, 01.29.25)
• Russia's military is offering recruits in the southern Samara region a record 4 million rubles ($40,600) to join high-risk assault squads in Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 01.31.25)
• The earlier Iranian-designed Shahed UAVs used GPS technology to navigate. Many of those now being used are packed with 4G data modems and Ukrainian SIM cards, which allow them to travel using Ukrainian cell-phone towers, as well as Chinese satellite navigation antennas. Recent reports indicate some may be equipped with artificial intelligence, which Russia hopes to use to launch autonomous drone salvos. “In the near future,” says Anatoly (not his real name), a Ukrainian engineer, “our EW systems may not be able to affect the flights of the Shaheds at all.” (The Economist, 01.25.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The U.S. military reportedly recently transferred Patriot missiles from Israel to Poland and is expected to deliver these missiles to Ukraine. A U.S. defense official told CNN and three sources with knowledge of the transfer told U.S. outlet Axios on Jan. 28 that the U.S. military transferred roughly 90 decommissioned Patriot missiles from storage facilities in Israel to Poland. The Patriot missiles are expected to be transferred to Ukraine on an unspecified date. (ISW, 01.30.25)

  • “The conventional wisdom that we did too little too late, and if only we had given this weapons system at this time rather than that time something would be dramatically different in the war, is not borne out by any serious review of the evidence,” Biden administration national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. (FT, 01.31.25)

  • Elaine McCusker, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute believes that without U.S. support, Russia would advance in 2025 as Kyiv runs out of weapons. By 2026, Ukraine would lose effective air defense, allowing Russia to conduct continuous large-scale bombings. Ukraine’s conventional forces would continue to courageously fight but would likely collapse by the end of that year, allowing Russia to seize Kyiv and then drive to the NATO border. (The Hill, 01.30.25)
• Ukraine has become a member of the Interallied Confederation of Reserve Officers (CIOR). Its membership was unanimously approved, according to RBC-Ukraine's sources in Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. (RBC.ua, 01.30.25)
• When Slovakia became one of the first NATO countries to deliver military aid to Ukraine, its defense minister faced down criticism from opposition parties. What he didn’t expect was to be investigated for abuse of power, taking bribes — and treason. Jaroslav Nad is the subject of five criminal complaints and an Interior Ministry probe a little over a year after Prime Minister Robert Fico returned to office on a campaign to halt weapons deliveries to Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 01.31.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The EU has agreed to renew its sanctions against Russia after Hungary dropped its veto threat. Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s Russia-friendly prime minister, had threatened to let the EU sanctions lapse at the end of the month if U.S. President Donald Trump decided to relax the sanctions regime. But Trump last week said he was willing to impose additional restrictive measures if Russia did not reach an agreement to end the war “soon.” On Jan. 27, Hungary’s foreign minister Péter Szijjártó agreed to the EU extending the sanctions, according to three officials. The sanctions, which must be extended every six months by unanimous agreement, include the freezing of €190bn worth of Russian assets in the EU. However, on Jan. 31, Orban again threatened to veto European Union sanctions against Russia when they come due for renewal in six months’ time if Ukraine fails to resume the transit of Russian gas by then.  (FT, 01.27.25, Bloomberg, 01.31.25)
  • The European Union is proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian aluminum as part of a broad sanctions package ahead of the third anniversary of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. The new sanctions package will allow European buyers to import 275,000 metric tons of Russian aluminum for a one-year period, before a full ban comes into effect, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. The package also proposes sanctions that would cut 15 banks off from the SWIFT banking system, and actions targeting more than 70 dark-fleet vessels involved in shipping Russian oil, the people said. (Bloomberg, 01.29.25, Meduza, 01.29.25, Korrespondent.net, 01.31.25)
  • EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Jan. 29 that the bloc could impose sanctions in response to hostile actions in space, citing increasing threats from Russia. "We are already the targets of hybrid warfare, including in space, with systematic jamming of satellite navigation signals," Kallas told a conference in Brussels. (MT/AFP, 01.29.25)
  • The European Union proposed imposing tariffs on the remaining agricultural products coming from Russia and Belarus that aren’t already facing duties, as well as some nitrogen-based fertilizers. (Bloomberg, 01.28.25)
    • Poland is targeting companies importing Russian fertilizers, in a bid to prevent the European Union from developing another dependency on Moscow for a key resource. The country’s tax authority has so far identified and penalized companies responsible for 70% of imports of Belarusian urea, a widely-used fertilizer, Deputy Finance Minister Zbigniew Stawicki said. (Bloomberg, 01.28.25)
  • The European Union’s next sanctions against Russia will include restrictions on several popular pro-Kremlin media outlets. The planned measure will target the news agency TASS, the online publication Lenta.ru, the Russian Defense Ministry’s TV channel Zvezda, the newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda, the pro-Kremlin Crimean website NewsFront and other propaganda media outlets, according to investigative journalists at RFE/RL’s Sistema project who obtained a draft of the EU decision. (Meduza, 01.30.25)
  • The European Union is planning to ban the sale of Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation gaming consoles to Russia as part of its next sanctions package, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Jan. 28. (MT/AFP, 01.28.25)
• Kallas and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreed on the need to keep maximum pressure on Russia to move toward a just and sustainable peace in Ukraine, according to an EU official familiar with the phone conversation. (Bloomberg, 01.28.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS countries over their efforts to create a new currency and move away from the U.S. dollar. Trump said the United States would demand that the “seemingly hostile Countries” in BRICS pledge not to establish a new currency or support any alternative to replace the “mighty U.S. Dollar.” Otherwise, “they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy,” he wrote on Truth Social. (Meduza, 01.30.25)
  • The BRICS countries do not seem to be discussing a common currency, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Jan. 31. (Meduza, 01.31.25)
• On Jan. 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Russian TV: “I doubt that the current U.S. President, Mr. Trump – to reiterate, we worked together when he was president the first time – will make any decisions, even though we hear words about the possibility of imposing more sanctions on Russia, I still doubt that he will make decisions that will be bad for the U.S. economy.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.24.25)
• Putin signed a decree Jan. 31 allowing the Armenian investment fund Balchug Capital to acquire the Russian subsidiary of U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs, which had operated in Russia since 2009, was the first Wall Street firm to exit the country following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, a Moscow court temporarily froze $36 million of Goldman Sachs’ Russian assets over claims that the bank had failed to settle a multibillion-dollar debt with a Russian-owned bank. (MT/AFP, 01.31.25)
• ING Groep NV agreed to sell its operations in Russia, effectively ending its presence in the country almost three years after the invasion of Ukraine. The Dutch lender plans to sell ING Bank (Eurasia) JSC to Global Development JSC, a Russian company owned by a Moscow-based financial investor. It expects the transaction to result in a hit of about €700 million ($730 million) to profit. (Bloomberg, 01.28.25)
• A Russian senator who is one of the country’s richest men held a stake in Elon Musk-led SpaceX via a trust even after he was sanctioned by the first Trump administration, exposing gaps in the enforcement of rules intended to target elites who enable Kremlin policies, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Billionaire Suleyman Kerimov held the SpaceX stake through Delaware-based Heritage Trust starting in 2017, according to four people, including two former senior U.S. national security officials. The trust initially held approximately 1% of SpaceX, according to three of the people. (Bloomberg, 01.29.25)
• Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich saved millions of euros through a scheme which falsely classified five of his superyachts as commercial vessels, an investigation has found. The strategy devised by his network allowed the billionaire to avoid paying VAT in European countries where his boats received services like refueling. Private vessels are subject to the sales tax, which is typically levied at around 20% by EU members. (BBC/Euronews, 01.28.25)
• Ukraine has confiscated 2.11 billion hryvnia ($50.3 million) worth of Russian aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska’s raw material assets two years after blocking their shipment, the SBU security service said. (MT/AFP, 01.29.25)
• Ukrainian officials have renewed their push to gain access to hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets in hopes of convincing newly arrived President Donald Trump to overcome opposition in Europe to the move. The idea is that the use of an alternative source of funding to buy Ukraine weapons and pay for reconstruction will appeal to Trump as he seeks to cut foreign aid. (WP, 01.31.25)
• Companies tied to sanctioned Russian billionaires are taking advantage of a loophole in Dutch legislation to evade financial oversight, the Dutch public broadcaster NOS has reported. According to NOS, these billionaires exploit a provision in Dutch law that allows their companies to be classified as micro-enterprises, enabling them to conceal cash flows and avoid strict reporting requirements even as they remain under international sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine (MT/AFP, 01.29.25)
• The war in Ukraine sparked a sharp rise in demand for sanctions screening and compliance advice, with industry figures now closely monitoring Trump for unexpected additions to the list. The SIX Sanctioned Securities Monitoring Service, an offshoot of the SIX financial services and stock exchanges group, has reported a sharp increase in the use of its services. It assesses more than 10,000 ETFs and its latest data indicates that 7.7% of them included securities sanctioned by one or more government, and that there has been a 700% increase in the number of sanctioned securities over the past two years. (FT, 01.29.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• On Jan. 24, Putin told Russian TV: “Regarding talks about Ukraine, we have consistently made it clear, and I wish to underscore it one more time, we remain open to them. ... The current Kyiv regime appears quite content to receive hundreds of billions from its benefactors ... I am of the opinion that, ultimately, those who provide the funding should compel him to act, and I believe he will have no choice but to comply.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.24.25)
  • Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak highlighted on Jan. 24 that Putin aims to negotiate "the fate of Europe without Europe" and "Ukraine without Ukraine." (ISW, 01.22.25)
• On Jan. 26, Strana.Today, a Ukrainian outlet, published details of the purported plan to end the war in a few months, writing that it had been discussed in "political and diplomatic circles" in Ukraine. Newsweek was unable to independently verify whether the details of the plan were accurate. Trump's alleged 100-day plan to end the war in Ukraine includes conducting a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, meeting with both Putin and Zelenskyy in February or March, and declaring a ceasefire along the front lines by Easter, which falls on April 20 this year. (Newsweek, 01.27.25)
• On Jan. 26, Zelenskyy said allies should work toward determining a format for any upcoming peace talks with Russia and that Kyiv must be involved for successful negotiations. (MT/AFP, 01.25.25)
• On Jan. 28, Putin said Moscow is open to negotiations with Zelenskyy but does not consider him a legitimate leader capable of signing a final peace agreement. He added that he would "allocate people to take part" in negotiations if Zelenskyy would be present instead of holding direct talks face-to-face. In Jan. 28 remarks Putin also claimed that the war in Ukraine could be over within two months if the West stops providing Ukraine with military assistance and that Ukraine's dependence on Western military aid indicates that Ukraine has "no sovereignty." (RFE/RL, 01.29.25, ISW, 01.29.25, Meduza, 01.29.25)
  • On Jan. 28, Putin claimed that in the spring of 2022, he decided to withdraw Russian troops from Kyiv at the request of “certain European leaders,” who told him Ukraine could not sign a peace deal “with a gun to its head.” However, according to Putin, Russia was “deceived,” and Western leaders ultimately “convinced the Ukrainians to keep fighting” instead of agreeing to a settlement. (Meduza, 01.29.25)
  • Zelenskyy, who under the constitution must continue to perform his duties until a new head of state is elected, responded to Putin's claim saying it is the Russian leader who is the obstacle to talks to end the fighting. "Today, Putin once again confirmed that he is afraid of negotiations, afraid of strong leaders and does everything possible to prolong the war," Zelenskyy wrote on social media. (RFE/RL, 01.29.25)
• Neither Ukraine nor Russia is likely to achieve their "maximalist goals" as a result of the war. Achieving peace will require hard work, states U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in an interview with journalist Megyn Kelly. "It's [war] not going to end with the maximalist goals of either side, and there's going to have to be a lot of hard work done. And I think only the United States under the leadership of President Trump can make this possible, but it will not be easy, and it will take some time. But it's certainly something I know he is strongly committed to seeing happen," Rubio stressed. (RBC.ua, 01.31.25)

• “The question is, can the current administration display sufficient staying power that Putin sees we’re going to hang in there and the costs are going to continue to mount?” Biden administration national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. “In which case, I do believe there’s a deal to be done.” (FT, 01.31.25)

• The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on Jan. 28 defining its position on peace in Ukraine, closely echoing the principle of "peace through strength" that Zelenskyy previously outlined. (ISW, 01.30.25)
• Polls by Ukraine’s Socis shows that the share of Ukrainians favoring a temporary or a permanent stop to the fighting climbed from 44.3% in February to 70.1% in December (highest in 2024). In contrast, the share of those in Ukraine who favored continuation of the hostilities dropped from 44.5% to 27.8% in the same period of time. Of those who favored a stop to fighting in December, some 50.6% supported “search for a compromise solution with the involvement of leaders of other countries to end the war,” while 19.5% favored Suspension of hostilities and temporary freezing of the conflict along the current line of contact,” according to the results of the Socis poll cited by Strana.Today. In addition, polls by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in December 2023 and December 2024 showed that the share of those who agreed that Ukraine may give up some territory in order to achieve peace and preserve its independence increased from 19% to 38% in that period.  (RM, 01.31.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. President Donald Trump has ridiculed Denmark’s attempts to defend Greenland with additional patrols including two extra dog sleds as he insisted America would take control of the strategically crucial Arctic island. Trump held a 45-minute phone call with Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen last week, which five current and former senior European officials described to the Financial Times as fiery and confrontational. The officials said the Danish government was in “crisis mode” after Trump took the unprecedented step of refusing to rule out military action to take territory from a NATO ally and threatened targeted tariffs against it. (FT, 01.26.25)
• The U.S. Senate confirmed Pete Hegseth to be the next defense secretary in a late-night vote that ended in a tie, requiring Vice President J.D. Vance to cast the deciding vote. Then he issued his set of priorities. He emphasized the strengthening of the nation’s industrial base—which ramped up after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago—and streamlining the military’s cumbersome processes for buying new weapons. (RFE/RL, 01.25.25, NYT, 01.25.25)
• Tulsi Gabbard said she refuses to be anyone’s “puppet” and promised to end what she called the weaponization of intelligence, according to prepared remarks she’s set to deliver at her confirmation hearing Jan. 30 to be the next director of national intelligence. Gabbard sought to push back against criticism—including from some lawmakers—over stances seen as sympathetic toward authoritarians like Syria’s ousted leader Bashar al-Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin. “What really upsets my political opponents is my consistent record of independence, regardless of political affiliation, and my refusal to be anyone’s puppet,” Gabbard said in remarks she’s set to deliver before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. (Bloomberg, 01.30.25)
• Shares in European defense companies are hitting new records after Germany’s lawmakers approved about €2.5 billion ($2.6 billion) worth of weapons and equipment orders for the armed forces. (Bloomberg, 01.30.25)
• Lithuania and Estonia have responded to “good and constructive pressure” from Trump to become the first NATO countries to promise to spend more than 5% of their GDP on defense in a drive to sharply increase military capabilities. Out of NATO’s 32 members, 23 met the 2% target last year as defense spending in Europe has gradually increased over the past decade since Russia’s annexation of Crimea. (FT, 01.27.25)
• The European Union must double its defense spending as it faces at least €100 billion ($104 billion) of immediate investment needs, according to four member states that border Russia. A paper prepared by Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Poland calls for the EU to harness joint borrowing, enable the European Investment Bank to spend on core defense needs and work with European partners outside the bloc, an apparent reference to the U.K. (Bloomberg, 01.30.25)
• NATO has started a process to share some of its highly classified capability targets—which determine what kind of weapons and equipment member countries need to produce—with the defense industry, according to people familiar with the matter. The move is part of an effort by NATO to push for increased production in what new Secretary General Mark Rutte calls a “shift to a wartime mindset.” (Bloomberg, 01.26.25)
• NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai stated at the European Parliament on Jan. 28 that NATO states have faced acts of sabotage in recent years, including train derailments, arson, attacks against politicians' property, and assassination plots against defense industry figures, including a Kremlin plot to assassinate Rheinmetall Head Armin Papperger. Appathurai emphasized that the Kremlin aims to "create disquiet to undermine support for Ukraine" and called for NATO states to more assertively deter Russian sabotage acts. (ISW, 01.28.25)
• For around a decade, the Russian spy ship Yantar has crossed the globe and loitered over undersea cables in what Western officials suspect is an attempt by the Kremlin to map vital arteries for the global economy running along the ocean floor. This past week, the Yantar passed through British waters, where it was tracked by two British Royal Navy ships, said U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey, adding that he had recently changed the naval rules of engagement to allow for such a close encounter. In November, the Yantar had encroached into British waters and floated over critical undersea cables. (WSJ, 01.26.25)
• Norwegian authorities detained a second vessel suspected of the latest data cable breach in the Baltic Sea, following a similar move by Sweden that’s probing the incident as sabotage. The detention of the Norway-registered ship, Silver Dania, on Jan. 30 comes after Swedish authorities on Sunday held another vessel on suspicion of damaging a cable between Sweden and Latvia earlier that day. The Norwegian police and border guards brought the vessel, en route between the Russian ports of St. Petersburg and Murmansk, into the Tromso port in northern Norway following a legal aid request by Latvia, according to a website statement. (Bloomberg, 01.31.25)
• Finland expects to see more damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea after several incidents since late 2023, President Alexander Stubb said. (Bloomberg, 01.30.25)
• Foreign states including India, Russia and China have interfered in Canada’s democratic institutions in an effort to destabilize the country, an official investigation has concluded. The final seven-volume report released on Jan. 28 by Justice Marie-Josée Hogue, who led the Foreign Interference Commission, was based on 16 months of reporting and the testimony of more than a 100 witnesses. (FT, 01.29.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Trump refrained from making any comments to the press about his potential contacts with the leaders of Russia and China, but said that he is "doing very well" in both directions. (TASS, 01.31.25)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington needs to engage in contacts with China and Russia, and to do so at the highest levels. “Ultimately when you’re dealing with great powers like China, it’s going to be at the highest levels … and that interaction will happen. In the case of Russia, the same," he said. (TASS, 01.30.25)
• Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago, Western nations have accused China of supplying Moscow with microchips and other critical dual-use technologies that are “powering Russia’s brutal war of aggression.” Left untouched by these Western sanctions are some two dozen Chinese companies supplying Russia with gallium, germanium, and antimony—key elements found in the drones and missiles that Moscow is using to pummel Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 01.30.25)
• Russia appears to have overcome for now a deficit of yuan that led to a spike in short-term borrowing costs after the U.S. threatened to penalize lenders for processing cross-border payments. The Kremlin’s pivot toward the Chinese currency was buffeted by the threat of secondary sanctions, helping to push the overnight yuan borrowing rate Rusfar, an indicator of liquidity in Moscow, to more than 200% in September. That gauge has now dipped below zero, indicating a return to a surplus in Moscow as Russia adapts to the sanctions environment with alternative conduits to conduct payments. (Bloomberg, 01.30.25)
• The CIA has concluded that Covid-19 probably began as a leak from a laboratory in China in a new assessment of the origins of the pandemic that killed millions of people. The U.S. intelligence community—which is made up of 18 agencies—has been assessing the origin of Covid-19 for the past four years to determine if the virus emerged naturally from a wet market in Wuhan or whether it leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in the Chinese city. (FT, 01.26.25)

Missile defense:

• Trump is preparing an executive order for a “next-generation” defense shield to protect the U.S. against ballistic missiles and other long-range attacks, taking on a goal that past administrations—including his own—struggled to reach. A White House document says Trump will order the construction of an “Iron Dome” shield, comparing it to Israel’s vaunted system, which was developed in coordination with the U.S. and is designed to address threats including drones, rockets and cruise missiles. The executive order did not specify which countries might be considered a threat for potential missile attacks, but experts say they include Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. And such attacks could be launched from submarines, whose mobility add further complications to any missile defense system. (Bloomberg, 01.27.25, NYT, 01.27.25)
  • Any system that will cover the United States will have to cope with a Russian arsenal of 1,250 deployed weapons, a fast-growing Chinese arsenal that the Pentagon believes will be of similar size within a decade, maybe earlier, and a North Korean threat that has only grown larger since Mr. Trump’s diplomacy with Kim Jong-un collapsed. (NYT, 01.28.25)
  • The United States is estimated to have spent more than $400 billion on the kinds of antimissile goals that the president now says will provide “for the common defense.” (NYT, 01.28.25)
    • "There is zero possibility of a comprehensive missile defense of the United States in the foreseeable future," James N. Miller, who served as undersecretary of defense in the Obama administration, told me on Jan. 28. "We are not going to escape mutual assured destruction vis-à-vis Russia or China." (WP, 01.30.25)
• On Jan. 31 Russia condemned an executive order by U.S. President Donald Trump to build a new missile defense shield, accusing the United States of trying to upset the global nuclear balance and pave the wave for military confrontation in space. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the plan was aimed at undermining the ability of both Russia and China to exercise nuclear deterrence. (Reuters, 01.31.25)

Nuclear arms:

• On Jan. 24, Putin told Russian TV: “Overall, we may have quite a few common points with the current administration and we could jointly look for solutions to the key issues of today, including strategic stability and the economy, by the way.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.24.25.)
  • Putin has argued since then that any talks on limiting nuclear arms should also cover the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration had refused to mix the two, fearing that Putin’s real goal was to trade limits on its nuclear arsenal for the territory he had captured in Ukraine and other concessions. But Trump seems open to a broader negotiation, which is exactly what Putin would like, because it could enable him to make that trade-off. (NYT, 01.27.25.)
• Russia’s envoy to UN officers in Geneva Gennady Gatilov told the Conference on Disarmament: “The recent steps taken bу the so-called "collective West" in the situation in and around Ukraine are of particular concern. It's not an exaggeration to say that bу its reckless actions, including missile strikes against strategic and environmentally dangerous facilities on the territory of our country, aimed at further inflaming the conflict and provoking Russia to escalate it in response, the West, represented bу the States sponsoring the Kyiv regime, has actually brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. Of course, the U.S., U.K. and France bear particular responsibility for that, as their leaders committed themselves to avoid any military confrontation between the nuclear powers bу signing on 3 Jan. 2022 the Statement of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.” (ISW, 01.25.25)
• Some of the latest arrivals at Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise are charred bits of the Oreshnik, a new Russian missile. One part dates from 2017. Another, inside one of the missile’s warheads, dates to 2016. This would confirm suspicions that the Oreshnik is no more than a souped-up version of an older model, the RS-26 Rubezh intermediate-range ballistic missile. (The Economist, 01.25.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• The Syrian rebel group that ousted Bashar al-Assad last month dissolved parliament, dismantled the country’s armed apparatus and appointed its de facto leader the country’s new president. The group also nullified a 2012 constitution and disbanded Assad’s Baath party, SANA reported, citing a statement from Syrian rebel commander Hassan Abdul-Ghani. Ahmed Al-Sharaa, who led the group, will be president during a transition period, he said, without saying how long that period would last. (Bloomberg, 01.29.25)
• On Jan. 29 Russia said its diplomats, including Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, had held "frank" discussions with Syria's new de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa as Russia tries to retain its two military bases in the country, but it declined to comment on what he was demanding in return. A Syrian source familiar with the discussions told Reuters that the new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, had requested that Moscow hand over former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Syria’s new government also pressed Russia for compensation. Syrian news agency Sana said Damascus also wanted Russia, which backed Assad in the country's civil war, to rebuild trust through "concrete measures such as compensation, reconstruction and recovery." Russia said it was prepared to help Syria with postwar reconstruction efforts but admitted making no progress in talks over the future of its strategically important air base and naval port in the country. (Reuters, 01.30.25, MT/AFP, 01.29.25, Bloomberg, 01.29.25, FT, 01.29.25)
  • The Russian cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II have begun transporting military equipment out of the Syrian port of Tartus, Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean Sea, satellite images published by journalist Mark Krutov show. After Sparta II left the port, most of the containers and military equipment at the dock disappeared, Krutov noted. The remaining equipment is now being loaded onto the Sparta. According to Norwegian naval analyst Tør Are Iversen, the process is being guarded by a Russian naval Grachonok-class anti-saboteur ship. (Meduza, 01.28.25)
  • “Russia is ready to help Syria in rebuilding its economy,” Vitaly Naumkin, a senior Middle East policy adviser to the Russian government, said in a phone interview from Moscow on Jan. 31. “We’ll manage to find a compromise,” and the new authorities in Damascus would benefit from maintaining ties with Moscow including potentially in military supplies, he said. (Bloomberg, 01.31.25)
• The United States has shared secret intelligence on threats from the Islamic State with the new government in Syria, which is itself run by leaders of a militant group long considered by Washington to be a terrorist organization, according to multiple current and former U.S. officials familiar with the exchanges. (WP, 01.25.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• The latest round of U.S. sanctions against Russia haven't had a significant impact on the country's oil exports, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. "We estimate that Russian oil revenues have edged up modestly on net since the announcement of the new sanctions," the analysts say. "As the ultimate goal of sanctions is to reduce Russian oil revenues, we assume that Western policymakers will prioritize maximizing discounts on Russian barrels over reducing Russian volumes." (WSJ, 01.27.25)
  • Millions of barrels of oil that would normally be preserve of oil refineries in Europe are instead heading to Asia as U.S. sanctions on Russia revive one of the market’s great arbitrage trades. Asian companies are already on course to collect almost 400,000 barrels a day of oil from the North Sea and Kazakhstan next month, vessel tracking and trading data compiled by Bloomberg show. (Bloomberg, 01.28.25)
  • China and India have suspended March purchases of Russian oil as U.S. sanctions drive up shipping costs, Reuters reported on Jan. 30, citing traders and shipping data. The U.S. Treasury Department earlier this month targeted 183 vessels, including “shadow fleet” tankers used by Russia to bypass Western oil price caps. As a result, shipping on Aframax tankers—which can carry around 100,000 metric tons—for Russia’s ESPO Blend oil surged to $6.5–$7.5 million for delivery to China and $9-$10 million for delivery to India. (MT/AFP, 01.28.25)
  • The Huihai Pacific tanker sanctioned by the U.S. this month has discharged Russian oil in China after an unusually long journey in which it changed its destination from Shandong province, a hub for independent refiners. (Bloomberg, 01.30.25)
  • Russia is sending cargoes of sanctioned oil to India on tankers that have been blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury—setting up an acid test of Moscow's ability to get around aggressive measures imposed by Washington earlier this month. (Bloomberg, 01.28.25)
• Chevron is spending nearly $50 billion to expand the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan. It is intended to increase production this year to around one million barrels a day, approaching 1% of global supplies. (NYT, 01.25.25)
• European officials are debating whether Russian pipeline gas sales to the EU should be restarted as part of a potential settlement to end the war against Ukraine, according to people familiar with discussions. Advocates of buying Russian gas argue it would bring down high energy prices in Europe, encourage Moscow to the negotiating table, and give both sides a reason to implement and maintain a ceasefire. But raising the idea of reopening flows of Russian gas into Europe, even in preliminary discussions, has already sparked a backlash among Ukraine’s closest allies in the EU. Three of the officials briefed on the talks said the idea had been endorsed by some German and Hungarian officials, with support from other capitals that saw it as a way to reduce European energy costs. (FT, 01.30.25)
• The European Commission is likely to postpone its planned publication date for a roadmap to phase out the last remaining fuels from Russia, including liquefied natural gas. The bloc’s executive arm may put forward the plan on March 26, a month later than originally planned, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive planning. (Bloomberg, 01.27.25)
• According to the Russian finance ministry, Russia's oil and gas revenues jumped by 26% last year to $108 billion after falling by 24% in 2023 on weaker oil prices and declining gas exports. Russia's oil and gas condensate production reached 516 million metric tons, or 10.32 million barrels per day, in 2024, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the energy ministry's in-house magazine on Jan. 30, around 2.8% lower compared to 2023. (Reuters, 01.30.25)
• In 2024, Russia exported a record 33.6 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a 4% increase from the previous year, RBC reported on Jan. 28, citing data from the analytics firm Kpler. Asia accounted for 45% of Russia’s LNG exports, or 15.2 million tons, down three percentage points from the previous year. China and Japan were the largest buyers, importing 7 million and 5.7 million tons, respectively. Smaller shipments went to Turkey (445,000 tons) and Kuwait (220,000 tons), while 336,000 tons were classified as shipped to unknown destinations. (Meduza, 01.28.25)
• German national energy company Sefe bought 58 cargoes of Russian LNG through the French port of Dunkirk last year — more than six times the figure in 2023. (FT, 01.28.25)
• Ukraine stands ready to transit natural gas from Azerbaijan to Europe and a contract could be inked quickly if an agreement can be reached, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (Bloomberg, 01.25.25)

Climate change:

• Winter temperatures in Russia have risen by an average of 3 degrees Celsius over the past half-century. “It’s a little more in the Arctic and a little less in the south of Russia,” Alexei Kokorin, a climate expert at the Nature and People Foundation, told the state-run RIA Novosti news agency. (MT/AFP, 01.27.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• No one in Trump's new administration has made contact with the Kremlin about setting up a meeting with Putin, Russian officials said on Jan. 27 The Kremlin said both leaders appeared ready for a high-level meeting, but that it was still waiting for word from Washington. (MT/AFP, 01.27.25)
• On Jan. 24, Putin told Russian TV: “I cannot but agree with him [Trump] that if he had been President, if his victory had not been stolen from him in 2020, then maybe there would not have been the Ukraine crisis that broke out in 2022… we hear the current President say he is ready to work together. We remain open to that… It makes sense for us to meet based on the realities of today, to sit down and discuss without haste the areas that are of interest to the United States and Russia. We are ready to do that. But, again, this, first of all, depends on the decisions and choices of the current U.S. administration.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.24.25.)
• The Kremlin has cast doubt on U.S. conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson’s claim that the Biden administration attempted to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We don’t really know what Carlson meant when he said that,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Jan. 29 when asked to comment about the alleged assassination attempt. Peskov noted that Carlson “didn’t provide any evidence” when he claimed in his podcast earlier this week that the Biden administration had “tried to kill Putin.” (MT/AFP, 01.29.25)
• Tulsi Gabbard was grilled over her past support for leaker Edward Snowden, her dealings with Syria’s ousted president and sympathies for Russia as she tried to convince skeptical senators to confirm her as Donald Trump’s director of national intelligence. (FT, 01.30.25)
  • Ms. Gabbard came to the hearing prepared to distance herself from Mr. Snowden. But she was unwilling to take a step both Republicans and Democrats wanted her to take: join them in declaring him a traitor. (NYT, 01.30.25)
  • Gabbard said in her opening statement: “Those who oppose my nomination imply that I am loyal to something or someone other than God, my own conscience, and the Constitution of the United States, accusing me of being Trump's puppet, Putin's puppet, Assad' puppet, a guru's puppet, Modi's puppet, not recognizing the absurdity of simultaneously being the puppet of 5 different puppet masters… They used the same tactic against President Trump and failed.” (Senate.gov, 01.30.25) Neither Russia nor Ukraine were mentioned in the written opening statement, while Putin was mentioned in passing once.
  • When asked “Should the U.S. continue to provide weapons and other lethal and non-lethal support to Ukraine? “Gabbard said in her Response to Questionnaire for Completion by Presidential Nominees: “As nominee for Director of National Intelligence, my role is not to dictate specific policy terms but to ensure the President and policymakers have access to the most accurate and most objective intelligence to guide their decisions. If confirmed as DNI, my focus will be on providing the President and decision-makers with clear, actionable intelligence to assess the feasibility and risks of any proposed actions.” (Senate.gov, 01.30.25)
  • Gabbard said in her Response to Questionnaire for Completion by Presidential Nominees: President Trump has stated that one of his top foreign policy priorities is to end the dangerous and disastrous war betwen Russia and Ukraine. If confirmed as DNI, my priority would be to ensure that the President has the critical information he needs to support his efforts to get Russia and Ukraine to end the war and get to the negotiating table… President Trump campaigned on the promise of conducting negotiations that will finally end this bloody costly war and has stated this is one of his top priorities. (Senate.gov, 01.30.25)
  • Gabbard said in her Response to Questionnaire for Completion by Presidential Nominees: “Foreign efforts to interfere with or influence the U.S. political system persist. Recent unclassified intelligence assessments from the ODNI assess that foreign threat actors engage in a variety of actions in an attempt to disrupt the U.S. political process.” (Senate.gov, 01.30.25)
• Russian nationals were among the 64 people on board the American Airlines plane that crashed into the Potomac River in Washington after colliding with a military helicopter, the Kremlin said Jan. 30. Vadim Naumov and Evgenia Shishkova, the veteran Russian ice skating pair who triumphed at the 1994 World Figure Championships and went on to a professional coaching career in the United States, were among the passengers who died on a plane that crashed in Washington, D.C. (MT/AFP, 01.30.25, RFE/RL, 01.30.25)
• The detention of a dual Russian-American citizen has come to light in southern Russia. On Jan. 25, court documents accessed by RFE/RL's Caucasus.Realities in Kabardino-Balkaria, a Russian republic in the North Caucuses, said an individual identified by the initials K.T.N. has been detained in the region since November. The detained individual is accused of "participating in an illegal armed group, terrorist activities and undergoing appropriate training." (RFE/RL, 01.25.25)
• The Trump administration’s abrupt freeze on foreign aid has plunged exiled Russian NGOs and media outlets into uncertainty, jeopardizing their funding and posing what some describe as the greatest challenge to Russian civil society since the Kremlin enacted its “undesirable” organization law a decade ago. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a sweeping directive Jan. 24, pausing all foreign aid for 90 days. (MT/AFP, 01.30.25)
• As of Jan. 15, the total value of claims from 17 Russian TV channels against Google for blocking their YouTube accounts has reached 1.81 duodecillion rubles, the newspaper RBC reported on Jan. 29. (Meduza, 01.30.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s economy is facing a potential surge in corporate bankruptcies, the Vedomosti business daily reported Jan. 27, citing experts from a government-aligned think tank. The Central Bank’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 21%—its highest level since the invasion of Ukraine—in October 2024 has driven up business debt burdens. More than 20% of manufacturing companies were paying interest costs exceeding two-thirds of their pre-tax profits (EBIT) at the end of 2024, compared to just 10% a year earlier, Vedomosti cited analysts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting as saying in an analytical report. (MT/AFP, 01.28.25)
• The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office is seeking to transfer full ownership of Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport to the state, arguing that its private owners—Dmitry Kamenshchik and Valery Kogan—hold foreign citizenships and have violated Russian law by controlling a strategically significant enterprise, Vedomosti and Kommersant reported, citing sources familiar with the case. (Meduza, 01.30.25)²
• The Arbitration Court of the Rostov Region has granted the Russian Prosecutor General's Office's request to transfer 100% of the shares of the strategic enterprise LLC "Rodnye Polya" to state ownership. "Rodnye Polya" is recognized as a major national grain exporter, operating in the port of Azov and leading in the transshipment of bulk cargo there. (Meduza, 01.31.25)
• Russian authorities blocked a record 417,000 websites in 2024 as the state continued to tighten its control over the internet, the independent news outlet Vyorstka reported. (MT/AFP, 01.29.25)
• The Russian Orthodox Church seeks to increase the number of military chaplains deployed with Russian forces in Ukraine fivefold, aiming to provide spiritual support and combat what it describes as the "brutalization" of soldiers. The Church is calling for at least 1,500 clergy members to be embedded within military units, up from the approximately 300 priests currently serving alongside Russian troops. (MT/AFP, 01.31.25)
• On Jan. 1, 2025, an amendment to Russia’s law “On state genomic registration” went into effect, allowing law enforcement to conduct “mandatory state genomic registration” of individuals convicted of administrative (misdemeanor) offenses. (Meduza, 01.31.25)
• In the Levada Center’s latest survey (Jan. 30) of Russian public opinion, on the question of ‘the top [5] politicians who enjoy the greatest trust,’ the level of trust in Vladimir Putin has practically not changed in the last few months (49%), the level of approval of Mikhail Mishustin has slightly increased to 20% (17% in Dec. 2024). Sergei Lavrov's rating was 16% in Jan. 2025 (18% in Dec.), the level of trust in Andrei Belousov and Sergei Sobyanin was equal and is 5% (unchanged from Dec.). On the question of ‘are things going in the country today in the right direction as a whole, or is the country moving on the wrong path,’ 71% said ‘in the right direction’ (up from 67% in Dec.), and those who answered ‘on the wrong path’ remained constant—17% in Jan. 2025 and in Dec. 2024. On the ‘level of approval of the activities of Vladimir Putin,’ 11% disapprove (10% in Dec.), and 87% approve (same as Dec. 2024). (Levada Center, 01.30.25). Machine translated.

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian prosecutors are demanding 3.2 billion rubles ($32.6 million) in damages from the head of a construction company in the southwestern Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces occupy swaths of Russian territory, media outlets reported Jan. 28. Vladimir Lukin, CEO of the Kursk Region Development Corporation, was arrested last month on charges of abuse of authority. Initially, he was accused of misusing 173 million rubles ($1.7 million) allocated by the government for fortifications along the Russia-Ukraine border. (MT/AFP, 01.28.25)
• Moscow police arrested “several” former deputies of exiled former Kremlin aide and veteran reformer Anatoly Chubais, Russian media reported Jan. 30, citing anonymous law enforcement sources. The arrested individuals face charges of abuse of power, sources told the state-run news agency TASS. (MT/AFP, 01.30.25)
• England’s legal regulator ruled last year to take no action against lawyers that represented the deceased Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a London High Court libel claim that the Russian himself later revealed to be based on lies. The Solicitors Regulation Authority ruled last March that Prigozhin’s UK lawyers Discreet Law had no way of knowing that the Russian—who was sanctioned in the UK, U.S. and EU at the time—was not telling the truth to them when they took on his libel claim against the British journalist Eliot Higgins in 2021. (FT, 01.28.25)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Jan. 27 praised Soviet soldiers for ending the “total evil” of Auschwitz, 80 years after the Red Army liberated the Nazi death camp. Auschwitz, the largest Nazi extermination camp, has become a symbol of the Holocaust, during which Nazi Germany murdered 6 million European Jews. This year’s commemoration event in Poland excluded Russia, which has been barred from participating since it launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 01.27.25)
• Japan scrambled fighter jets after Russian bombers flew over international waters around the country, Tokyo's top government spokesman said Jan. 31. (MT/AFP, 01.31.25)
• The Kremlin is continuing to leverage the prominent Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram channel to cultivate increased Russian influence in Iraq. The Rybar channel claimed on Jan. 25 that members of the Rybar team—including its founder Mikhail Zvinchuk—visited Iraq over the last week and met with Iraqi officials, including Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia Al Sudani. (ISW, 01.25.25)
• In Dec. 2022, Ramzan Kadyrov’s cousin, Shahruddi Edilgiriev, bought a villa in Dubai that Kadyrov has used to host meetings with celebrities and other high-profile guests, according to a new investigation by the outlet iStories. The villa—1,026 square meters, or 11,044 square feet—is located inside the Zabeel Saray hotel complex on the artificial island of Palm Jumeirah. The property’s estimated value is $14.4 million. (Meduza, 01.31.25)
•  A 45-year-old man was arrested early Jan. 28 in Stockholm after ramming the metal gate of the Russian embassy with his car, police said. Police said they were alerted around 7:00 a.m. by a guard at the embassy. (MT/AFP, 01.28.25)
• On Jan. 30 Moscow warned that there is a risk of "chaos" in Serbia following months of anti-corruption protests that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Milos Vucevic. "It is extremely important that the demonstrators… show reason and do not follow the lead of those who stir up emotions," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. (MT/AFP, 01.30.25)
• A judge in the Far East city of Vladivostok ordered a man to spend five days in jail for supporting “Israeli aggression against the residents of Gaza.” (MT/AFP, 01.31.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian authorities said a criminal probe has been launched into Defense Minister Rustem Umerov for his failure to comply with an order to extend the contract of the chief of the Defense Procurement Agency (AOZ), in what appears to be a burgeoning dispute over arms procurement procedures. Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) on Jan. 28 told RFE/RL it had launched the probe into the possible abuse of power or official position by Umerov due to his refusal to renew the contract of AOZ head Maryna Bezrukova and his dismissal of two members of its Supervisory Board. The news of the Umerov probe came hours after Ukraine's cabinet officially fired Deputy Defense Minister Dmytro Klimenkov as part of a shakeup of the Defense Ministry's procurement operations. (RFE/RL, 01.28.25)
  • Bezrukova—whose agency acquired over $7 billion in armaments last year—said she would remain in her position, pointing out that her contract had been renewed by her agency's supervisory board and that Umerov had no right to override that decision. (NYT, 01.28.25)
  • As of Jan. 29, Bezrukova is the head of the Defense Procurement Agency (AOZ) again, according to information from the state register provided by resources such as YouControl, Opendatabot or Clarity-project. (Interfax-Ukraine, 01.30.25). 
  • Western officials and anti-corruption groups have warned that the dispute could disrupt arms supplies and undermine U.S. confidence in Kyiv. (FT, 01.29.25)
  • A top lawmaker from Zelenskyy’s ruling party has said Umerov’s move risks undoing significant progress in fighting corruption within the defense sector. Anastasia Radina, the ruling party MP who also chairs the Ukrainian parliament’s committee on anti-corruption policy, also called on Umerov to resign. The row has sparked an outcry from Ukrainian lawmakers and anti-corruption activists, as well as western diplomats, who warned that any sign of dysfunction could play into Russian hands and reinforce concerns within Trump’s circle about corruption in Ukraine’s military supply chain. (FT, 01.28.25)
• According to a report by the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP), 91.4% of Ukraine's population and 81.3% of businesses perceive corruption in the country as somewhat or very widespread. These figures represent increases of 3.5 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, compared to 2023. The survey, conducted in 2024 with 2,488 citizen interviews and 1,206 business representatives, identified corruption as one of Ukraine's top five issues, ranking second after Russia's armed aggression. (Gordonua, 01.27.25)
• The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, who has had a tense relationship with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accused him of trying to usurp the powers of elected officials in the capital. Internal political tensions in Ukraine have been rising in anticipation of a cease-fire that might lead to elections. This week, they burst into the open with a striking public rebuke of Zelenskyy by the mayor of Kyiv. In a video address issued on Jan. 29, Klitschko accused the president’s office of abusing the powers of martial law, the latest salvo in a continuing dispute over the use of military rule during the nearly three-year war against Russia. (NYT, 01.30.25)
• According to a sociological study titled "Corruption in Ukraine 2024: Understanding, Perception, Prevalence," presented on Jan. 24, the most corrupt sectors in Ukraine, as identified by citizens, are law enforcement activities and land relations, including construction. The survey indicates that 44.1% of respondents perceive corruption in land relations, while 28.5% identify it in both state and communal healthcare, as well as in law enforcement agencies. (RBC-Ukraine, 01.27.25)
• Slovakia ordered the expulsion of a Ukrainian citizen and blocked entry for 10 other foreign nationals as Prime Minister Robert Fico revived an accusation over an alleged attempt by forces abroad to overthrow his government. Fico said anti-government protests that began last year are being orchestrated from outside Slovakia. On Jan. 31, he accused plotters of working in coordination with the Georgian National Legion, a military organization linked to Ukraine’s war effort against Russia. (Bloomberg, 01.31.25)
• Romania’s far-right presidential frontrunner called Ukraine an “invented state” that will be dismembered after losing the war with Russia—and proceeded to make territorial claims of his own. The comments by Calin Georgescu, the fringe candidate who pulled out a shock victory in a presidential vote last year, mimicked Vladimir Putin’s language and showcased the views of a once-marginal figure who may attain the highest office in the European Union and NATO member state. (Bloomberg, 01.30.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko extended his rule in a tightly-controlled vote where he faced no opposition and that’s been called a “sham” by the European Union. The incumbent received 86.8% of the popular vote, Chairman of the country’s Central Election Commission Igor Karpenko said during a video briefing from Minsk early Jan. 27. Lukashenko, 70, cast his ballot in Minsk on Sunday morning. (Bloomberg, 01.26.25)
  • Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko on Jan. 27 who claimed victory in an election that sealed a seventh term in office. (MT/AFP, 01.27.25)
• Law enforcement authorities in Kyrgyzstan said Jan. 30 that they arrested a suspected arms trafficker who is part of a criminal group that has shipped more than 300 weapons from the United States to Russia since April 2022. (MT/AFP, 01.30.25)
• Moldova and the European Union have worked out an emergency plan to help the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria mired in an energy crisis after the halt of Russian gas flows. As the first step, Moldova is ready to supply Transnistria 3 million cubic meters of gas on credit to maintain pressure in the gas transportation system as restoring operations if pipelines are emptied of gas may take two to three months. Those volumes will be enough until the end of Jan., according to Recean. (Bloomberg, 01.27.25)
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu visited Kyiv on Saturday for talks with Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (MT/AFP, 01.25.25)
• Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s richest man and one-time prime minister, is fighting allegations of corruption and extortion in a lawsuit brought by a former business ally in the UK, adding to a slew of legal battles around the globe he’s fighting. Ivanishvili was accused on Jan. 27 in a London courtroom of “economic destruction” by lawyers for Georgian-British businessman Zaza Okuashvili, who is seeking nearly $50 million in lost profits and legal fees to date. (Bloomberg, 01.28.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• When the last nuclear weapon was taken away from Ukraine, “the Russians and their supporters in Ukraine were openly celebrating, saying: ‘We totally hoodwinked the [Ukrainians], we left them the bones and took the meat!' said General-Lieutenant Oleksandr Skipalskiy, who was the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence through the 1990s. (RFE/RL, 01.30.25)

Footnotes

1. In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 403 square kilometers (156 square miles), the equivalent to some 7 Manhattan Islands, in Ukraine, according to a Jan. 29, 2025, estimate by the Economist. (RM, 01.29.25)
2. As Russian authorities prepare to establish control over the country's second busiest airport, Domodedovo, we thought it'd be useful re-promote an insightful piece by A. Yakovlev on drivers of de-privatization in Russia. 

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy. 

Slider photo AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka.