This Week's Highlights:

• U.S. citizens' trust in their country’s institutions has deteriorated since Donald Trump took office, with trust among educated elites dropping lower than their Russian counterparts', global surveys by a PR firm show.

• Russia has gained an extra $117 million a day from the OPEC oil cuts, benefiting more from the pact than any other country.

• The Pentagon is making plans to fire its SM-3 IIA interceptor missile from a land-based Aegis Ashore site for the first time.

• Syrian Kurds will likely skip the upcoming Syrian peace congress planned for Jan. 29-30 in Sochi.

• Putin now says “destructive ideas” behind Islamic extremism can only be combatted with other ideas.

• Bloomberg has learned that Kirill Shamalov, once Russia’s youngest billionaire, has divorced Putin’s younger daughter; when this happened is unclear, but the agency also reports that Shamalov made nothing from a sale of shares in a major petrochemical company last year because he’d been holding them “in a kind of trust” as a member of the president’s family.

• A Ukrainian diplomat compared Minsk-2 to a sputtering record that’s reached its end, while Biden argued that Putin does want a resolution in Ukraine—only so long as the Donbass becomes something like Bosnia’s Republika Srpska. 

• For China, Russia is little more “than an occasional foil,” according to Biden.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• In December, the NNSA’s Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence conducted a workshop with Kazakh government agencies responsible for countering nuclear smuggling, in efforts to strengthen Kazakhstan’s own exercise development capability to help evaluate their national detection measures. (NNSA, 01.24.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov discussed North Korea in a call Jan. 24. Tillerson pressed “all parties” to implement U.N.-led action on North Korea and called for an end to escalating violence in Ukraine. (Reuters, 01.24.18)
• The U.S. Treasury Department on Jan. 24 sanctioned 16 North Korean agents it said are operating in China and Russia. The United States has also imposed sanctions on a vessel that Reuters revealed last year was delivering oil products from Russia to North Korea. The Kum Un San was one of eight vessels which Reuters found had left Russia with cargoes of fuel headed for North Korea despite declaring other destinations. U.S. officials say that is a ploy often used to skirt sanctions. Russia has no obligation to carry out sanctions set by the United States, including those on North Korea, RIA news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov as saying on Jan. 26. (Wall Street Journal, 01.24.18, Reuters, 01.25.18, Reuters, 01.26.18)
• North Korea shipped coal to Russia last year which was then delivered to South Korea and Japan in a likely violation of U.N. sanctions. (Reuters, 01.25.18)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• The Trump administration on Jan. 23 pressed ahead with efforts to convince European allies to add tough new requirements to the Iran nuclear deal, a move met with deep skepticism in France where the foreign minister insisted "signatories must stand by their word." (AP, 01.23.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements on the Iran nuclear deal are aimed at blackmailing the European Union, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the EU Vladimir Chizhov told TASS. (TASS, 01.24.18)
• French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian accused Iran of not respecting United Nations (U.N.) resolution that calls on Tehran to refrain from work on ballistic missiles. Le Drian said he would travel to Iran on March 5 and that France had begun talks with Tehran to discuss its missile program and regional activities. (Reuters, 01.22.18)
• French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian accused Iran of not respecting United Nations (U.N.) resolution that calls on Tehran to refrain from work on ballistic missiles. Le Drian said he would travel to Iran on March 5 and that France had begun talks with Tehran to discuss its missile program and regional activities. (Reuters, 01.22.18)
• Germany lobbied European countries to agree on new sanctions against Iran to show U.S. that Europe was taking Trump’s criticism against JCPOA seriously. (Reuters, 01.20.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• Chief of Russia’s General Staff Valery Gerasimov spoke with U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford on Jan. 20 by phone. Gerasimov and Dunford "discussed the situation in Syria along with other issues of mutual interest," Russia’s defense ministry said. (TASS, 01.24.18)
• Britain must ensure its armed forces can keep up with adversaries like Russia, which already has military capabilities the United Kingdom would struggle to match, according to the head of the British army. Gen. Sir Nick Carter said he was “actively examining” reversing a plan to wind down a U.K. base in northwest Germany in response to the growing threat from Russia. (Financial Times, 01.23.18, Reuters, 01.22.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed Aleksandr Grushko from his post as ambassador to NATO and appointed him as deputy foreign minister. (RFE/RL, 01.22.18)
• Levels of "Russophobia" in Western countries is higher than it was at the peak of the Cold War, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Russian daily Kommersant. Lavrov also said that U.S. President Donald Trump was being forced by pressure from political opponents into making anti-Russia decisions. (RFE/RL, 01.22.18)
• Andrei Kostin, chief executive of Russia’s VTB bank has warned of “the growing threat of military conflict” in Europe and said that more American economic sanctions on institutions in Moscow would be “a declaration of war.” “I think they want to put a lot of pressure on Russia with the help of sanctions so that Russia changes its government and its president to someone more suitable for them,” he said. (The Moscow Times, 01.24.18, Financial Times, 01.23.18)

Missile defense:

• The Pentagon will soon fire its emerging SM-3 IIA interceptor missile from a land-based Aegis Ashore site for the first time as part of a broad-based, multi-year effort to help defend European allies from short and intermediate-range ballistic missile attacks from Russia, Iran or other potential adversaries. (The National Interest, 01.23.18)

Nuclear arms control:

• The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on Jan. 25 moved the Doomsday Clock ahead by 30 seconds. It is now set at two minutes to "midnight." In moving the clock 30 seconds closer to the hour of the apocalypse, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists cited "the failure of President Trump and other world leaders to deal with looming threats of nuclear war and climate change." (The Washington Post, 01.25.18)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• The Turkish military and their Syrian rebel allies on Jan. 20 launched "Operation Olive Branch" against the Kurdish-held enclave of Afrin. (DW, 01.24.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump warned Turkey against expanding its military offensive against U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, telling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that such action could lead to direct conflict with U.S. forces, the White House said. Turkey said the White House readout did not accurately reflect the content of the call and that Trump didn’t share concerns over the violence. (Bloomberg, 01.24.18)
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has discussed Turkey’s incursion into northwest Syria in a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Turkey seeks to avoid any clash with U.S., Russian or Syrian forces but will take any steps needed for its security, a Turkish minister said Jan. 23.   (RFE/RL, 01.23.18, Reuters, 01.23.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation in Afrin with the national security council on Jan. 26. (Reuters, 01.26.18)
  • The Russian military operational group and military police have been relocated from Afrin. Russian officials are in contact with the Turkish leadership over Ankara’s military operation against Kurdish YPG fighters in the Afrin region, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Jan. 22. (Reuters, 01.22.18, Reuters, 01.20.18)
  • Syrian Kurdish officials will likely not attend the Syrian peace congress planned for Jan. 29-30 by Russia. The congress has been rendered meaningless by “Russian collusion” with Turkey in its attack in the Afrin region, Syrian Kurdish politician Aldar Khalil said Jan. 22. (Reuters, 01.22.18)
• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed Syria by phone on Jan. 24. "On Syria, the two discussed Russia’s role in ensuring the Assad regime plays a constructive role in the U.N.-led Geneva process," U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said. (RFE/RL, 01.24.18)
• Russia is ultimately responsible for chemical weapons use by the Syrian regime and should stop blocking United Nations resolutions seeking to investigate alleged violations of a 2013 accord to remove chemical weapons from Syria, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said. In response, Russia accused Washington of seeking to stymie efforts to end the war in Syria. (RFE/RL, 01.24.18, The Moscow Times, 01.24.18)
• U.N.-brokered peace talks with the Syrian government and opposition began on Jan. 25, a few days before separate negotiations hosted by Damascus’s close ally Russia that the West views with suspicion. (Reuters, 01.25.18)
• Russia has deployed two S-400 air defense systems to Syria, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. (Russia Matters, 01.22.18)
• Backed by Russian warplanes, Syrian troops have retaken the strategic Abu al-Duhur military airport, located deep within the country's final major pocket of rebel territory that was recently split in two by the pro-government offensive. (Newsweek, 01.22.18)

Cyber security:

• Major global technology providers SAP, Symantec and McAfee have allowed Russian authorities to hunt for vulnerabilities in software deeply embedded across the U.S. government, a Reuters investigation has found. (Reuters, 01.25.18)
• Messaging services in Russia have been banned from disclosing any cooperation with law enforcement agencies. (The Moscow Times, 01.22.18)

Elections interference:

• U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed a report that he ordered special counsel Robert Mueller to be fired but then reversed the decision after his own lawyer threatened to resign, calling it "fake news." The New York Times reported on Jan. 25 that Trump demanded Mueller’s firing in June 2017, but that White House counsel Donald McGahn said he would quit rather than follow through on the order. (RFE/RL, 01.26.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump said that he “would love to” talk under oath to special counsel Robert Mueller who is investigating whether anyone close to the president colluded with Russia during the 2016 campaign. As part of his investigation, Mueller is focusing on whether Trump obstructed justice when he removed his national security adviser, Michael Flynn, and fired FBI Director James Comey. The main topics of an interview would be those two decisions early in his presidency. Working out details for an interview could take several weeks. (Bloomberg, 01.23.18, Bloomberg, 01.24.18)
• Special counsel Robert Mueller is moving at a far faster pace than previously known and appears to be wrapping up at least one key part of his investigation—whether U.S. President Donald Trump obstructed justice. (Bloomberg, 01.25.18)
• U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions was interviewed by investigators for special counsel Robert Mueller last week, making him the highest-ranking Trump administration official questioned in the criminal probe. CIA Director Mike Pompeo has also been questioned by the special counsel’s office. (Bloomberg, 01.23.18, Reuters, 01.24.18)
• The U.S. Justice Department’s inspector general has recovered missing text messages from two FBI officials who sharply criticized Donald Trump, making them a flash point in the debate over the federal criminal investigation into Russian election interference. (Bloomberg, 01.25.18)
• "There's a text exchange between these two FBI agents" — Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, who had originally been on special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia probe — "saying that perhaps this is the first meeting of the 'secret society,'" U.S. Rep. Trey Gowdy announced. “I’m going to want to know what secret society you are talking about." (The Washington Post, 01.24.18)
• The Dutch domestic intelligence service AIVD had access to the infamous Russian hacking group Cozy Bear for at least a year starting in mid-2014. The Dutch government alerted the United States to Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election after Netherlands-based officials watched the hacking of the Democratic National Committee and other operations by the Russians, including a 2014 State Department hack. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denounced the Dutch reports Jan. 26 as untrustworthy. (The Washington Post, 01.26.18)
• Top congressional Democrats on Jan. 23 called on Facebook and Twitter to urgently examine the role of Russian bots and trolls in the growing online campaign to release a classified memo about allegations that the FBI mishandled a classified surveillance request as it probed Russia's meddling in the 2016 campaign. (The Washington Post, 01.23.18)
• Russian trolls have helped create a big swell of support online for a move by U.S. Republicans to force the release of a classified document that they say provides evidence of bias against U.S. President Donald Trump at the Justice Department. Researchers at the Alliance for Security Democracy project, which has been tracking a network of 600 Twitter accounts it says are controlled by the Kremlin, said late on Jan. 19 that trolls drove up use of the Twitter hashtag #releasethememo by 315,000 percent over 24 hours. (RFE/RL, 01.20.18)
• Twitter said on Jan. 19 it would notify some of its users whether they were exposed to content generated by a suspected Russian propaganda service. The company said it would be emailing notifications to 677,775 people in the United States. (Reuters, 01.19.18)
• The head of a U.K. government inquiry into Russian interference in the EU referendum has attacked Twitter for refusing to give “straight answers” to questions as part of its investigation. (Financial Times, 01.25.18)
• Facebook said Russian agents created 129 events on the social media network during the 2016 U.S. election campaign, shedding more light on Russia’s purported disinformation drive aimed at voters. (Reuters, 01.25.18)
• Facebook told a Senate panel that it has detected “only what appears to be insignificant overlap” between targeting of ads and content promoted by a pro-Kremlin Russia group and by the presidential campaign of Donald Trump.  (Bloomberg, 01.25.18)
• Facebook warned on Jan. 22 that it could offer no assurance that social media was on balance good for democracy, but the company said it was trying what it could to stop alleged meddling in elections by Russia or anyone else. (Reuters, 01.22.18)
• The attendance of members of Russia's elite at Trump's inauguration was evidence of the high anticipation in Moscow for a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations. Their presence caught the attention of counterintelligence officials at the FBI, according to former U.S. officials, although it is not clear which attendees drew U.S. government interest. FBI officials were concerned at the time because some of the figures had surfaced in the agency's investigation of the Trump campaign's ties to Russia. (The Washington Post, 01.20.18)
• Fifty percent of registered voters think members of U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, according to the most recent The Washington Post-ABC poll. (Newsmax, 01.24.18)

Energy exports:

• Russia is the biggest winner from the oil-cuts pact with OPEC, gaining about an extra $117 million a day last year from the deal, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency, topping the $98 million a day that went to rival and partner, Saudi Arabia. (Bloomberg, 01.24.18)
• Saudi Arabia’s oil alliance with Russia will last for “decades and generations,” the Saudi energy minister said, adding that while the crude market was close to rebalancing, more work was needed. Russia is prepared to continue cooperating with OPEC and its de-facto leader Saudi Arabia even after the cuts expire, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. The head of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev—the first Russian official to suggest a possibility of a joint oil output deal with OPEC two years ago in Davos—said Moscow and Riyadh should be coordinating oil policies for many more years. (Financial Times, 01.23.18, Bloomberg, 01.21.18, Reuters, 01.23.18)
• The French tanker Gaselys, carrying Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the United States, moored in Boston harbor on Jan. 24. Gaselys carries a first batch of LNG produced at Russia’s Yamal LNG plant, which is under U.S. sanctions. This is the first time that LNG produced in Russia has been shipped to the U.S. A second tanker carrying Russian natural gas may be on the way to the U.S. and may arrive Feb. 15. (TASS, Russia Matters, 01.24.18, Bloomberg, 01.25.18)
• Russia’s Sakhalin-1 oil project, led by ExxonMobil, has ditched plans to raise output by a quarter this year, following orders from the authorities to return to previous lower production limits. (Reuters, 01.23.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

• Two of Microsoft’s official distributors in Russia have imposed restrictions on sales of Microsoft software to more than 200 Russian companies following U.S. sanctions that came into force on Nov. 28. Microsoft could lose billions of dollars if it chooses to curb its sales in Russia due to U.S. sanctions. (Reuters, 01.22.18, 01.23.18)
• The United States asked Russia to explain how laws prioritizing the purchase of domestically produced goods can comply with World Trade Organization rules, according to a filing published on Jan. 24. (Reuters, 01.24.18)

Other bilateral issues:

• The United States added Russian officials and energy firms to a sanctions blacklist on Jan. 26, days before details of further possible penalties against Moscow are due to be released. The U.S. could release reports as early as Jan. 29. The bill requires the U.S. Treasury Department to prepare a list of the most significant Russian oligarchs “as determined by their closeness to the Russian regime and their net worth.” This will be accompanied by a report “describing in detail the potential effects of expanding sanctions ... to include sovereign debt and the full range of derivative products.”  Both reports are due to be sent to Congress by the end of January. (Reuters, 01.26.18, Bloomberg, 01.26.18)
  • Russia’s credit outlook was lifted by Moody’s Investors Service on Jan. 25, days ahead of the expected release of a U.S. Treasury report discussing debt sanctions. (Bloomberg, 01.25.18)
  • U.S. and European investors are loading up on Russian debt despite a looming threat of new U.S. sanctions on Moscow. Phosagro placed a $500 million eurobond this week at a coupon rate of 3.949 percent, its lowest ever. Also this week, Russian aluminum giant Rusal and gold producer Polyus sold $500 million in bonds each. (Reuters, 01.26.18)
  • The risk of appearing on a U.S. list of Kremlin-connected billionaires is giving Russia’s richest an extra reason to join the flood of emerging-market bond sales. Oleg Deripaska, Mikhail Fridman, Suleiman Kerimov and Andrey Guryev—worth a combined $33 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index—have sold or are marketing international bonds this month via the companies they or their families control. (Bloomberg, 01.23.18)
  • Long-standing critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin are giving the U.S. Treasury advice on whom to include in the list of Kremlin-connected oligarchs. Andrei Piontkovsky, Andrei Illarionov and Anders Aslund have found a receptive ear in Daniel Fried, former State Department coordinator for sanctions policy. (Bloomberg, 01.26.18)
  • Washington is unlikely to ease sanctions against Russia because of internal politics, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said on Jan. 25 after meeting U.S. investors and delegation members at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Dvorkovich has also claimed that oligarchs have been replaced by “responsible” businessmen.  “I’m afraid we no longer have oligarchs. That was a concept of the '90s,” Dvorkovich said when asked about an expected U.S. blacklist that will target Russian businessmen with Kremlin ties. (Bloomberg, 01.25.18, Reuters, 01.25.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan. 26 reportedly expressed his interest in establishing talks between the U.S. and Russia in a bid to restore relations between the world's top two military powers. When asked by TASS if he wished to build a dialogue with Russia, Trump replied, "We hope so." "This is fully in line with the position that Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated many times," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, TASS reported shortly afterward. (Newsweek, 01.26.18)
• U.S. officials are avoiding contact with their Russian counterparts at the World Economic Forum amid tensions over sanctions, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said. (Bloomberg, 01.25.18)
• The White House's next NASA budget is expected to propose government-industry moon initiatives and ending space station funding by the middle of next decade. Former astronaut Michael Lopez-Alegria said unilaterally announcing an end to station funding threatens to "put a dagger in the back of a shining example of cooperation" between the U.S. and Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 01.25.18)
• Russia is only slightly less powerful than the United States in the global arena, according to a new ranking published for the opening of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Russia scored second, after United States in the "Power" category, which the study describes as a country’s ability to “project their influence on the world stage” and “consistently dominate news headlines, preoccupy policymakers and shape global economic patterns." (The Moscow Times, 01.23.18, U.S. News and World Report, 01.23.18)
• Americans’ trust in their institutions has suffered the biggest deterioration ever recorded since Donald Trump took over the White House, according to a survey of global attitudes compiled by New York-based public-relations firm Edelman. “Trust in America, of American citizens, has imploded,” CEO Richard Edelman said. “Among informed elites, the U.S. is now lower than Russia and South Africa.” (Bloomberg, 01.23.18)
• Ksenia Sobchak, the new celebrity face of the Russian opposition, has been invited to U.S. President Donald Trump's annual national prayer breakfast in Washington on Feb. 1. (New York Daily News, 01.24.18)
• Wearing black swimming trunks, U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. on Jan. 21 plunged into the icy waters of the Istra River outside Moscow. The former Utah governor was trying out an Orthodox tradition for the Epiphany holiday. (The Washington Post, 01.21.18)
• Former Bank of Moscow chief Andrei Borodin, accused of corruption, has reportedly paid $200,000 to a Washington lobbying firm to help him get an American visa. (The Moscow Times, 01.26.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to lay out his vision for his fourth presidential term in a major speech in February, offering Russians the biggest increase in domestic spending in years. But what he won’t be talking much about is the package of tax hikes, benefit cuts and other changes that are in the works to help pay for the largesse. The moves include possible increases to the pension age and the income tax, as well as cuts in tax breaks for staples like food. (Bloomberg, 01.23.18)
• At a minimum, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to surpass the nearly 64 percent support he received in 2012 with a turnout of more than 65 percent at the presidential elections in March. Most analysts believe Putin will fall well short of his goal, with turnout of around 55 to 60 percent and support at about the same or slightly higher. (New York Times, 01.25.18)
• Barred from the ballot in the March presidential election, Russia's most prominent Putin critic, Alexei Navalny, is staging rallies across the country Jan. 28 to call for a boycott of the vote, enraging other opposition politicians who argue that convincing anti-Putin voters to stay home would be a gift to a Kremlin looking to the election as affirmation of its power. A Moscow court on Jan. 22 ordered the closing of a foundation supporting Navalny’s activites. (New York Times, 01.22.18, 01.26.18)
• During his courtship and marriage, Kirill Shamalov catapulted into the ranks of the super-rich with a little help from some of the closest allies of his father-in-law: Russian President Vladimir Putin. But sources say Shamalov’s marriage to Putin’s youngest daughter, Katerina Tikhonova, is over. In 2014, with a loan from Gazprombank, Shamalov acquired 17 percent of Sibur petrochemical company from owners Leonid Mikhelson and Gennady Timchenko for about $2.2 billion. Last April, Sibur announced that Shamalov had sold the shares he bought from Timchenko to Mikhelson. A person familiar with the transaction said Shamalov made “zero” from the sale because he was only allowed to hold those shares in a kind of trust as a Putin family member. (Bloomberg, 01.25.18)
• Each year, an estimated 100,000 Russians immigrate to developed countries, around 40% of whom have a higher education. A total of 2.7 million Russians currently live abroad, of which 1.5 million have kept their Russian citizenship. (The Moscow Times, 01.24.18)
• Russian men spend fewer years at work than their European and Asian counterparts, while working life for Russian women is on par with the global average, a new study shows. Russian men spend an average of 33.8 years officially employed. (The Moscow Times, 01.26.18)
• At a meeting with Islamic religious figures on Jan. 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged “undoubted support” for a "revival of Islamic education in Russia.” During his meeting at the newly inaugurated Islamic academy in Kazan, Putin emphasized the important role of Russia’s Muslim clergy in countering religious extremism. “These ideas, even destructive ideas, can only be fought with the help of other ideas,” TASS cited Putin as saying. (The Moscow Times, 01.24.18)
• A service car of the Memorial human rights group was torched in the Republic of Dagestan on Jan. 22, the third incident against the NGO in the North Caucasus region in the past month.  (The Moscow Times, 01.23.18)
• Russian national Maksim Panfilov, accused of participating in clashes with security forces at a Moscow protest on the eve of Russian President Vladimir Putin's 2012 inauguration, has been released from a psychiatric clinic. (RFE/RL, 01.22.18)
• The Russiangate.com investigative website was shut down hours after it published a report Jan. 24 alleging that Russian Federal Security Service chief Alexander Bortnikov owns secret real estate outside St. Petersburg. (The Moscow Times, 01.24.18)
• Rostechnadzor, the Russian regulator, has issued a permit required for start-up operations at unit four of the Rostov nuclear power plant, state nuclear corporation Rosatom said. (World Nuclear News, 01.24.18)
• A Russian Olympic Committee official said on Jan. 25 that 169 Russian athletes had been cleared to compete at the Pyeongchang games next month. Olympic conduct guidelines for the Russian athletes state that public display of the Russian flag is not allowed, but athletes may display the flag inside their spaces in the Olympic Village. (Reuters, 01.25.18, Olympic Athlete From Russia Conduct Guidelines, Jan. 2018)

Defense and aerospace:

• Sweden has confirmed reports of a Russian underwater drone capable of carrying massive nuclear warheads outlined in a recently leaked Pentagon nuclear policy document. “This system effectively avoids the U.S. missile defense, and I think that’s the main point,” Swedish expert Fredrik Westerlund said. (The Moscow Times, 01.23.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin praised a newly-built supersonic strategic bomber. Under a contract signed Jan. 25, 10 of the modernized TU-160M nuclear bombers, codenamed Blackjacks by NATO, will be delivered to the Russian air force at a cost of 15 billion rubles ($269 million) each between now and 2027. (Reuters, 01.25.18)
• The Russian air force is planning to have at least 700 fighter aircraft in active service. The bulk of these (around 450) will be designed by Sukhoi. (Russian Military Reform, 01.24.18)
• Russia’s venerable Tupolev Tu-95MS Bear strategic bombers are starting to receive the capability to retarget cruise missiles once the bombers are already airborne. Moreover, those cruise missiles can be retargeted once they are already en route to their targets—a significant new capability for the Russian military. (The National Interest, 01.22.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The state prosecutor in the trial of the Kirov region's ex-governor, Nikita Belykh, who is charged with bribery, has asked the court to sentence him to 10 years in prison. Belykh maintained his innocence as his trial drew to a close, calling the case against him the result of a "police provocation" and asked the court to acquit him. (RFE/RL, 01.26.18, RFE/RL, 01.24.18)
• For the second time in less than five years, a mayor of Dagestan’s capital, Makhachkala, has been detained over a suspected criminal offense. Police detained 51-year-old Musa Musayev on Jan. 19 and investigators allege that he illegally transferred over 81 million rubles' worth of land in Makhachkala to a public company for a paltry 1.1 million rubles ($19,427) in March 2016. (RFE/RL, 01.22.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• German companies sold goods worth 24.1 billion euros ($29.53 billion) to Russia in the first eleven months of 2017. The export volume from January to November in 2017 marked an increase of 21 percent on the year and was higher than the 21.5 billion euros registered during the whole of 2016, marking the first increase since 2012. (Reuters, 01.22.18)
• The United States on Jan. 25 urged Moscow to reconsider an agreement to sell six Sukhoi Su-30 fighter planes to Myanmar, where ethnic conflict is causing instability. (RFE/RL, 01.26.18)
• British Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson said that Moscow was spying on the U.K.’s energy supplies which, if cut, could cause "total chaos" in the country. He said it was "the real threat … the country is facing at the moment." (BBC, 01.26.18)
• The United Kingdom has frozen the assets of two Russians, Andrei Lugovoi and Dmitry Kovtun, accused of carrying out the 2006 killing in London of former Russian Federal Security Service officer Aleksandr Litvinenko. (RFE/RL, 01.23.18)
• Russian businessman and lawmaker Suleiman Kerimov, under investigation for tax fraud in France, returned to Nice after making a short trip to Russia that was allowed by the French authorities. Kerimov was meeting with Valentina Matviyenko, the speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament, during his three-day visit. (Reuters, 01.23.18)
• The Czech Republic is voting in a presidential election pitting pro-Russian incumbent Milos Zeman against pro-European career academic Jiri Drahos in a vote that may play an important role in Europe’s divide between east and west. Zeman is favored to win another five-year term, but polls suggest the runoff with Drahos that ends Jan. 27 could be a tight race. (Bloomberg, 01.25.18, AP, 01.26.18)
• Russian state nuclear agency Rosatom has proposed building a nuclear power station in Argentina, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Jan. 23 at a meeting with his Argentinian counterpart Mauricio Macri. (Reuters, 01.23.18)

China:

• “I’ve spent more time in private meetings with Xi Jinping than any world leader … And I don’t think Xi Jinping, in my view, looks to Russia as anything other than an occasional foil. The idea that there’s some modus vivendi that fundamentally benefits, other than access to the West, China, I don’t see where that—I don’t see where that goes,” former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said at a Foreign Affairs Issue Launch. (CFR, 01.23.18)
• Russian state bank VTB said it had agreed to loan 5 billion euros ($6.15 billion) to China’s CEFC to finance the purchase of shares in Rosneft. (Reuters, 01.24.18)
• Beijing has outlined plans for a “Polar Silk Road” in the Arctic, setting off what experts say is a slow-motion race for control of the region as climate change allows for the expansion of shipping routes across the top of the world. Thawing Arctic ice caps have freed up the so-called Northern Sea Route above Russia, which offers a much faster route than the 48 days it can take to sail the most common route from northern China to Rotterdam via the Suez Canal. (Financial Times, 01.26.18)

Ukraine:

• The Trump administration announced new sanctions Jan. 26 related to Russia's occupation of Crimea and ongoing violence in eastern Ukraine, just days ahead of a congressionally mandated deadline for the implementation a separate, broad array of Russia-related sanctions. The press release, the Treasury Department said it was designating 21 individuals and nine entities under existing authorities, including Russian government officials and Russian companies connected to projects in Crimea. The agency also sanctioned senior leaders of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, as well as people and entities alleged to have provided them with material support. (CNN, 01.26.18)
• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Davos on Jan. 26. Following the meeting, Poroshenko said on Twitter, "We have agreed with Secretary Tìllerson on coordination in the defense and security sector. Grateful for the full support of the United States in the U.N. Security Council and continuation of the policy of sanctions against the Russian Federation." (RFE/RL, 01.26.18)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western opposition amounted to crossing one of Russia’s red lines, as did Georgia’s decision to use force against Ossetia in the 2008 war. “Russia has its interests, and people should bear this in mind. Russia has red lines. I believe that serious politicians in the West understand that these red lines need to be respected, just like they were respected during the Cold War,” Lavrov was quoted as saying in the Jan. 22 issue of Kommersant. (Russia Matters, 01.23.18)
• U.S. negotiators will test Russian seriousness about a peace deal for Ukraine, where fighting has been intensifying. The press release on Jan. 26 announcing new sanctions on Russia came just as the U.S. Special Representative to Ukraine Kurt Volker was holding talks with Russian counterpart, presidential aide Vladislav Surkov, in Dubai. U.S. officials earlier said that if the peacekeeping proposal falls through, their next plan is to increase the cost of Russia’s intervention in eastern Ukraine, including additional sanctions. During a Jan. 23 meeting between Volker and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, the two expressed "serious concern" about Russia's lack of progress in implementing the Minsk agreements. In separate comments, Volker said that the Minsk accords have not been implemented because Moscow has not shown "willingness to implement them." (Wall Street Journal, 01.22.18, RFE/RL, 01.24.18, Independent, 01.26.18)
• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed Ukraine by phone Jan. 24. "On Ukraine, [Tillerson] noted the upcoming meeting between U.S. Special Representative Volker and Russian Representative Surkov and emphasized the need for Russia to accelerate implementation of its commitments under the Minsk Agreements and reverse the recent escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine," U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said. (RFE/RL, 01.24.18)
• “On Donbass, I truly believe Putin’s play here is to turn the—he would be happy with a negotiated resolution to the Donbas, but as long as the Donbas is turned into something akin to Republika Srpska in Bosnia. If he doesn’t get that, we’re going to see the low boil,” former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said at a Foreign Affairs Issue Launch. (CFR, 01.23.18)
• “Russia is not going to roll across the inner line here and take over the rest of the country with their tanks. What they’re going to do is they’re going to take your economy down, you’re going to be absolutely buried, and you’re going to be done. And that’s when it all goes to hell,” former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said at a Foreign Affairs Issue Launch. (CFR, 01.23.18)
•  “I had gotten a commitment from [Petro] Poroshenko and from [Arseniy] Yatsenyuk that they would take action against the state prosecutor. And they didn’t,” former U.S.  Vice President Joe Biden said in reference to efforts to have Poroshenko fire Ukrainian Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin in 2016. “I said, I’m telling you, you’re not getting the billion dollars. I said, you’re not getting the billion. I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money. Well, son of a bitch. He got fired. … I’m desperately concerned about the backsliding on the part of Kiev in terms of corruption.” (CFR, 01.23.18)
• Government troops and Russian-led militia in eastern Ukraine appear to be preparing for an escalation in fighting, international monitors warned Jan. 23, amid Kremlin condemnation of Kiev’s new legal stance on the grinding conflict. The OSCE mission said neither side was abiding by the 2015 Minsk agreement. (Irish Times, 01.23.18)
• Gen. Ben Hodges, former top U.S. Army commander in Europe, said Russian battlefield tactics in eastern Ukraine show sophisticated integration of drones, electronic warfare and mortar and artillery, posing major challenges for Ukrainian forces. (RFE/RL, 01.24.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Tajik student Navruz Sangov at Russia's Federal Security Service Academy has been detained for allegedly attempting to join the Islamic State in Syria. (RFE/RL, 01.23.18)
• A court in Kyrgyzstan has convicted 32-year-old Niyazbek Aidarov of fighting alongside Islamic militants in Syria and sentenced him to six years in prison. (RFE/RL, 01.26.18)
• In a turn from its isolationist past, Uzbekistan is stepping up involvement in efforts to bring peace to neighboring Afghanistan, saying an end to fighting there is key to counterterrorism efforts across the region. (Wall Street Journal, 01.22.18)
• Russia's Supreme Court has canceled a deportation order for Ali Feruz, an Uzbek citizen who works for the independent Moscow-based newspaper Novaya Gazeta. (RFE/RL, 01.24.18).
• Authorities in Kazakhstan say a Dutch court has lifted a freeze on Kazakh sovereign-fund assets worth $22 billion. The assets held by the fund's custodian, Bank of New York Mellon, were frozen in October 2017 following a lawsuit by Moldovan businessman Anatolie Stati, who seeks to enforce a $500 million arbitration ruling against the Astana government. (RFE/RL, 01.24.18).
• "It was a mistake," said Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security adviser in the Obama administration. "We should have recognized the Armenian genocide." "I'm sorry," added Samantha Power, Obama's ambassador to the United Nations. "I'm sorry that we disappointed so many Armenian Americans." (Politico, 01.19.18)
• Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has signed a decree canceling a controversial law obliging unemployed individuals to pay taxes as "social parasites." (RFE/RL, 01.26.18)
• Moldova should leave the Commonwealth of Independent States only after it has formally become a candidate for European Union membership, Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Iurie Leanca has said. (RFE/RL, 01.25.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

• Eugene Rumer, a senior fellow and director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote: “Russia is not going away. The country is not dying, as was often claimed in the 1990s and early 2000s. Its economy is not collapsing. Russia’s military has made a comeback, and the Kremlin has employed it with skill and determination. … A few decades ago, when Russia was weak, it was fashionable to think that Russia did not matter. Clearly, this is no longer the case. That’s what our national conversation should be about. Let’s leave the 2016 election to the investigators.” (Los Angeles Times, 01.22.18)
• Nikolas Gvosdev, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, wrote: “In the West, there remains the assumption that our foreign-policy problems with Russia are personal: that they stem from Putin. … The reality is that any leader in the Kremlin pursuing Russian national interests is likely to have points of friction with the United States—and we don’t seem to have a mechanism that, in a post-Putin era, would work to dampen down or deconflict those irritants.” (The National Interest, 01.21.18)
• The Minsk-2 accord today is "like a vinyl record on which the music has run out but which is still rolling, hissing, making background noise,” according to Roman Bessmertnyi, a Ukrainian diplomat who took part in negotiating them. (Bloomberg, 01.19.18)
• "From the outside, Washington looks rather chaotic, and it's not clear how much real thought is going into policy decisions on Russia," says Tom Blackwell, CEO of EM, a consultancy that advises a number of large Russian companies. "One particular concern is that this void of thinking has opened the way for individuals with an ax to grind to step up, seeing future sanctions as a chance to settle scores or a chance to legitimize themselves in the West simply by adopting fervent anti-Kremlin positions." (Wall Street Journal, 01.22.18)