3 Things to Know

1. When asked if a peace agreement could be reached between Russia and Ukraine by next year’s World Economic Forum, Donald Trump told this year’s WEF: “You’re going to have to ask Russia. Ukraine is ready to—to make a deal.” To make Moscow more amenable to putting an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war, OPEC should lower oil prices, Trump told WEF via a video-link on Jan. 23.¹ “If the [oil] price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately,” claimed Trump, who also threatened on Jan. 22 to impose “taxes, tariffs and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States… if we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon.”² In his Jan. 24 remarks, Trump repeatedly emphasized the urgency of ending the war, claiming “millions” are perishing in a "killing field.”³ In these remarks, Trump also suggested that China can both help “stop the war” and negotiate “denuclearization,” with the latter to be done together with the U.S. and Russia. Responding to Trump’s overtures, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said Jan. 24 that “China will continue to promote peace talks,” but was mum on the subject of trilateral denuclearization, which Beijing has consistently opposed. In contrast to Mao, Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that it is necessary to resume arms control negotiations with Washington “as soon as possible.”⁴ In separate comments on Trump’s Jan. 22 threats to impose additional sanctions on Russia, Peskov said: "We do not see any particularly new elements.” Both Trump’s and Putin’s teams have been recently reported to be preparing a call between the two leaders, which could occur “in the days” after Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, according to the U.S. side. Speaking on Trump’s inauguration day, Putin congratulated his U.S. counterpart and said Russia is “open to dialogue with the [U.S.]… on the Ukrainian conflict.” Putin also lauded Trump for expressing a desire to “re-establish direct contact with Russia” as well as for speaking of the “necessity of doing everything possible to avert a third world war.”
2. In the past month, Russian forces made a net gain of 178 square miles in Ukraine (the rough equivalent of 7 1/2 Manhattan islands), according to the Jan. 22, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. The card, which uses data from the Institute for the Study of War, also estimates that Russians forces are now 3.4 miles away from the center of the Donetsk region’s town of Pokrovsk, which is a key transportation hub and serves as home to Ukraine's only mine producing the coking coal needed for the country's steelmaking. At the same time, as of Jan. 22, Ukraine still controlled 177 square miles of territory in Russia’s Kursk region (down 3 square miles from last week), according to the war report card.
3. More Indians (71%) than even Russians themselves (68%) think Russia will have greater global influence over the next decade, according to a newly-released poll conducted for ECFR after the U.S. presidential election in November. In addition, more Indians view Russia as an ally (61%) than nationals of any other country polled for ECFR, including China (39%). Some 48% of the poll’s respondents in China view Russia as a necessary partner, while 8% view Moscow as Beijing’s adversary, according to ECFR. It is also notable that of the countries polled, India has the greatest share of respondents (a whopping 84%) who think Trump's victory is a good thing for their country. The runner ups are Saudia Arabia and Russia, where 61% and 49%, respectively, think Trump’s victory is a good thing for their country, according to the poll.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Brandon Williams, a former one-term congressman from New York’s 22nd district, is U.S. President Donald Trump’s pick to head the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. “I served in America's chain of nuclear orders; I've never been more concerned about America's ability to deter Russia, China,” he said while a U.S. Congressman in 2024. (Defense Daily, 01.16.25, House.gov, 07.08.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:⁵

• As of mid-January 2025, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) forces had highly likely sustained around 4,000 casualties in offensive combat operations against Ukrainian forces in Kursk oblast, Russia. Of these, approximately a quarter were killed in action… Russian and DPRK forces are almost certainly experiencing interoperability difficulties. The two forces do not share a common language and DPRK troops almost certainly have difficulties integrating into Russia's command-and-control structure. (UKMOD X-account, 01.24.25)
• North Korea will reportedly deploy new military personnel to Russia by mid-March 2025, likely to maintain the current pace and intensity of attritional, infantry-led assaults in Kursk Oblast. (ISW, 01.22.25)
• Sent to Russia to join with Moscow’s troops in Kursk, the North Koreans essentially operate as a separate fighting force, the Ukrainian soldiers and American officials said — distinct in language, training and military culture. The North Koreans are largely special operations troops trained for surgical strike missions, according to Celeste Wallander, who until Inauguration Day was the Pentagon’s assistant secretary for international security affairs. (NYT, 01.22.25) 
• A wounded North Korean soldier captured by Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region earlier this month told interrogators that Pyongyang's troops fighting for Moscow are suffering major losses. (MT/AFP, 01.20.25)
• Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Directorate said in an interview published Jan. 22 that North Korea has sent hundreds of artillery and rocket systems to help Russia's ongoing fight against Ukraine, with more on the way. (WP, 01.24.25)
• The DPRK brought its latest multiple launch rocket systems disguised as civilian vehicles to Kursk. The pro-war Telegram channels "Belorussky Silovik" and "Voyenny Osvedatitel", as well as the Ukrainian OSINT under the nickname Special Kherson Cat, published a video of the new 122-mm MLRS of the North Korean army stationed near Kursk. (Istories, 01.23.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran has expressed interest in building a new nuclear power plant (NPP) in cooperation with Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom, the company's CEO Alexei Likhachev told Russian state media. (MT/AFP, 01.20.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:⁶

• “That is an absolute killing field. Millions of soldiers are being killed. Nobody has seen anything like it since World War II. They’re laying dead all over the flat fields. It’s a flat field — farmland, and there’s millions of Russians and millions of Ukrainians. Nobody’s seen anything like it since World War II. ... I think the — the thing that you’ll see about Ukraine is that far — far more people have died than is being reported. And I’ve seen that.  But far, far more people have died. ... But if you look now, so many of the — the people being killed are soldiers just facing each other with guns, rifles, and drones — the new form of warfare — drones. And it’s a very sad thing to see. And when you see pictures of the fields that I see, nobody wants to see it. You’ll never be the same,” Trump told the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.23.25) More than 700,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured in the war, according to a January 2025 estimate by Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken. As for the Ukrainian military, it has lost 400,000 killed or injured, according to Austin’s and Blinken’s estimate. According to Trump’s own January 21, 2025, estimate, 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed. According to Trump’s January 2025 estimate, 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. As for civilian fatalities, more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, according to the U.N. and more than 360 Russian civilians have been killed. Neither of these estimates add up to “millions.”
• Russia and Ukraine said Jan. 24 that they exchanged the remains of 806 fallen soldiers, marking one of the largest repatriation operations in recent months. Moscow received the bodies of 49 soldiers, Russian lawmaker Shamsail Saraliyev told the RBC news website. Meanwhile, Kyiv’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War confirmed that Ukraine had received the bodies of 757 troops. (MT/AFP, 01.24.25)
• Kyiv accused Russian forces on Jan. 23 of killing six captured Ukrainian servicemen and said it was notifying international rights groups of the latest alleged Russian war crime. Officials both in Moscow and Kyiv have accused the other's army of carrying out killings of captured soldiers in violation of international law. Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets made the allegations referring to footage circulating on social media that appears to show Russian troops shooting unarmed Ukrainian troops to death. (MT/AFP, 01.23.25)
• On Jan. 20, Russia said it had opened a criminal investigation into allegations that Ukrainian troops killed civilians in a Russian village that had been seized by Kyiv's army in the Kursk region (MT/AFP, 01.19.25)
• About 59,000 Ukrainians were registered as missing in December, most of them soldiers, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs. (NYT, 01.23.25)
• Residents of Russia's Kursk region have made coordinated social media posts appealing for help to find relatives trapped by a Ukrainian border offensive launched last August, Russian media reported Jan. 22. (MT/AFP, 01.22.25)
• Ukraine on Jan. 23  announced evacuations of children from several towns in the northeastern Kharkiv region threatened by Russian forces. (MT/AFP, 01.23.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces made a net gain of 178 square miles square miles in Ukraine (the rough equivalent of 7 1/2 Manhattan islands), according to the Jan. 22, 2025, of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. The card, which uses data from the Institute for the Study of War, shows Russians forces 3.4 miles away from the center of the Donetsk region’s town of Pokrovsk, which is a key transportation hub used to supply other embattled eastern outposts and which is home to Ukraine's only mine that produces coking coal needed for the country's steelmaking industry and that Ukraine has had to recently shut down. At the same time, as of Jan. 22, Ukraine still controlled 177 square miles of Russian territory in the Kursk oblast (down 3 square miles from last week), according to the war report card. (RM, 01.22.25)
• On Jan. 17, at least three people were killed in the assault on Kyiv, and at least 10 were wounded in a Russian drone strike in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia. (NYT, 01.18.25)
• On Jan. 17, Russian forces seized the settlement of Vremivka in the Donetsk region. (ISW, 01.17.25)
• On the night of Jan. 17-18, Ukrainian forces struck two Russian oil depots in Kaluga and Tula oblasts. (ISW, 01.18.25)
• On Jan. 19, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces regained positions in Makhnivka and Zelenivka while Russian forces advanced in Terny, Dvorichna, near Kolodyazy and Slovianka. (RM, 01.23.25)
• On Jan. 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his embattled nation had been slammed by more than 1,000 Russian projectiles over the past week. “In one week, the Russian army used about 550 attack drones, almost 60 missiles of various types, and more than 660 aerial bombs,” Zelenskyy wrote on his Telegram channel. (RFE/RL, 01.19.25)
• On the night of Jan. 19-20, Russian forces deployed 141 Shahed drones and other decoy UAVs, according to Ukrainian military officials. By 8:00 a.m. on Jan. 20, Ukrainian forces had shot down 93 drones across multiple regions, including Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Donetsk, the Ukrainian Air Force Command said. An additional 43 drones reportedly went “off radar without causing negative consequences,” while two “went to back Russia.” Ukraine’s Air Force also reported that Russian forces carried out a missile strike on the Sumy region using an Iskander-M system. Local officials have not yet commented on the aftermath of that strike. (Meduza, 01.21.25)
• On Jan. 20, Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin couldn't be happy with the slow progress of his war against Ukraine. "He’s grinding it out. Most people thought it would last about one week and now you’re into three years. It is not making him look good," Trump said. Trump also said, "We have numbers that almost a million Russian soldiers have been killed. About 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed. Russia’s bigger, they have more soldiers to lose but that’s no way to run a country," he added. “Russia is bigger, they have more soldiers to lose, but that’s no way to run a country,” he said. (NYT, 01.21.25, Politico, 01.21.25.)
• On Jan. 20, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Russian forces suffered more than 434,000 casualties in 2024 — 150,000 of which were personnel killed in action. (ISW, 01.20.25)
• On Jan. 20, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an aircraft production plant in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, as a part of an ongoing series of strikes aimed at degrading Russian military capacity. (ISW, 01.20.25)
• On the night of Jan. 20 to 21, Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries in Russia in Voronezh and Smolensk regions. (ISW, 01.08.25)
• On Jan. 21, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian forces pushed back the enemy near Shevchenko and in Udachne while Russian forces advanced in Velyka Novosilka, near Vozdvyzhenka, Slovianka and Sribne. (RM, 01.23.25)
• On Jan. 21, Ukraine’s Security Service and State Bureau of Investigation reported the arrest of two generals and a colonel on suspicion of negligence, which allegedly allowed Russian forces to capture parts of the Kharkiv region in May 2024. (Meduza, 01.21.25)
• On Jan. 21, Russia's top military commander, Valery Gerasimov, visited troops fighting near the Ukrainian-controlled supply hub of Pokrovsk in the eastern Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 01.21.25)
• On Jan. 21, Russia's Defense Ministry said that its air defense systems intercepted 55 Ukrainian drones overnight, with falling debris sparking a fresh fire at an oil depot not far from the border with Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 01.21.25)
• On the night of Jan. 21-22, Russia launched another massive attack on Ukraine involving almost 100 drones at targets across the country while Russian troops continue to edge further into Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian Air Force on Jan. 22 reported the downing of 65 Iranian Shahed drones as well as other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Another 30 drones disappeared from radar without reaching their targets, the Air Force added, saying the attacks hit areas in Mykolayiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskiy, Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa. The attack on Mykolayiv damaged a residential building, partially destroying the roof. Emergency teams evacuated some 200 residents from the building. (RFE/RL, 01.22.25)
• On Jan. 22, Russia's military said that its forces took control of the Kharkiv region village of Zapadne on the western bank of the Oskil River, which used to form the front line between the Ukrainian and Russian armies. (MT/AFP, 01.22.25)
• On Jan. 22, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces occupied Novovasylivka. (RM, 01.23.25)
• On the night of Jan. 22-23, Russian forces launched an overnight missile strike on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, hitting residential buildings, according to the region’s governor, Ivan Fedorov. He reported four explosions in the city. The attack killed a 47-year-old local resident and injured 24 others, including a two-month-old baby, Fedorov said. (Meduza, 01.23.25)
• On the night of Jan. 23-24, more than 100 Ukrainian drones targeted various regions of Russia in the heaviest Ukrainian drone attacks so far this year, damaging a major oil refinery that makes fuel for export, a crude-pumping station and one of the nation’s biggest production plants for microchips. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones. These reportedly included 37 in the Bryansk region, 20 in the Ryazan region, 17 each in the Kursk and Saratov regions, seven in the Rostov region, six each in the Moscow and Belgorod regions, three in the Voronezh region, two each in the Tula, Oryol and Lipetsk regions, and one each in Moscow and Crimea. Early on Jan. 24, an oil refinery in the Russian city of Ryazan was engulfed in flames. Also, the Kremniy El microchip plant in Russia’s western Bryansk region halted production following one of the largest overnight Ukrainian drone strikes on the country since the start of the war. (Bloomberg, 01.24.25, RFE/RL, 01.24.25, MT/AFP, 01.24.25, Meduza, 01.24.25) 
• On the night of Jan. 23-24, Russia launched 58 drones at Ukraine. Russian air attacks near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv killed at least three people and wounded several others. Ukraine's air force said that its air defense systems shot down 25 Russian drones over seven regions, including Kyiv and the western Lviv region. (MT/AFP, 01.24.25, RBC.ua, 01.24.25)
• On Jan. 24, the Status-6 X account reported that Russian assault infantry from the 5th Separate Tank Brigade raised their flag near the center of Velyka Novosilka on the Donetsk front in eastern Ukraine. The town is expected to fall soon. (Status-6 X-account, 01.24.25)
• Russia currently does not have the military potential for a quick offensive in Ukraine, because it is experiencing problems with manpower. This was stated by American General, commander of NATO's joint forces in Europe, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, during a discussion on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. When asked how the situation on the battlefield could develop during this year, the commander replied as follows: "I'm not worried that Ukraine may suddenly lose. I see no potential for a massive breakthrough (of the Russians). And this is not a political, but a military vision. This is due to (the situation) on both sides—effective defense, which Ukrainians are making, but also with difficulties for the Russian side to create significant offensive forces to make a potential breakthrough. (VOA, 01.21.25) Machine-translated.
• Mediazona and BBC News Russia, together with a team of volunteers, have identified the names of 90,019 Russian soldiers killed during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine as of Jan. 24, using open sources. Over the past two weeks, starting on Jan. 10, they documented 1,964 names. (Meduza, 01.24.25)
  • The most complete publicly available tallies of Ukrainian deaths come from two opaque websites that track obituaries, posthumous medal awards, funeral announcements and other death-related information published online. The websites — Lostarmour.info and UALosses.org — have produced similar results: They have each individually counted about 62,000 Ukrainian soldiers who have died since the invasion. By comparison, Russian researchers and journalists have used similar methods to estimate that Russia had suffered more than 150,000 battlefield deaths through the end of November 2024. (NYT, 01.23.25)
• Russia’s recruitment effort brings it between 600 and 1,000 new fighters a day last year, according to Russian financial statistics. Kyiv matched this rate only briefly in that period. North Korea also sent about 11,000 soldiers to aid Moscow’s forces in the Kursk region of southern Russia, where the Ukrainians captured territory last summer. (NYT, 01.23.25)
• The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs is searching for at least 2,850 soldiers from the former DPR and LPR for unauthorized abandonment of their units. (Media Zone, 01.24.25)
• At least 126 Indians have been lured to Russia by offers of jobs or education, only to find themselves forced into service by the army, according to the Indian government. This month, Binil Babu, a 32-year-old electrician from the southern state of Kerala, became the 12th Indian to die in the war, drawing a sharp response from officials in India. (WP, 01.17.25)
• Having analyzed satellite images of Russian tank bases, a group of OSINT investigators has determined that since the start of the war, the Russian military and defense industry have effectively used up about half of their stock of old Soviet and Russian tanks. Based on high-resolution satellite images taken in late 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, the total number of tanks in storage bases at the end of 2021 was 7,342, 6,870 at the end of 2022, 4,666 at the end of 2023 and 3,517 at the end of 2024. Thus, in the first year following the invasion of Ukraine, approximately 530 tanks were withdrawn from storage; in 2023, about 2,200 tanks were removed; and in 2024, the number dropped to 1,150 tanks. (Re: Russia, 01.16.25)
• One year has passed since Moscow accused Kyiv of shooting down a Russian military plane carrying dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Ukraine opened an investigation, but has yet to release its findings, leaving questions about who was killed, and why. (NYT, 01.24.25)
• Russian law enforcement authorities said Jan. 20 that a British man captured fighting alongside Ukrainian forces in the southwestern Kursk region faces charges of "terrorism" and acting as a "mercenary." James Scott Rhys Anderson, 22, was captured in November while fighting with Ukrainian forces in Kursk. (MT/AFP, 01.20.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• In one of his first acts as president, Trump froze all foreign aid for 90 days, but Kyiv may dodge the worst of that action, Ukrainian officials said Jan. 21. (Politico, 01.21.25)
• U.S. officials said on Jan. 23 that they had made big investments that helped Ukraine start and expand its production of drones. Much of the U.S. assistance to the Ukrainian military, including billions of dollars in missiles, air defense systems, tanks, artillery and training, has been announced to the public. But other support has largely gone on in the shadows. That included helping Ukraine develop a new generation of drones and revolutionize how wars are fought, according to U.S. officials. The U.S. effort included money to support drone makers and to purchase parts. The United States also sent intelligence officials to Ukraine to help build its program, according to people who know about the effort. (NYT, 01.17.25)
• Ukraine needs to attract as much as $20 billion to boost weapons production, including long-range missiles, air defense and drones, in order to repel Russia, the country’s Minister for Strategic Industries Herman Smetanin said. (Bloomberg, 01.22.25)
• A £61 million contract has been placed with BAE Systems and Sheffield Forgemasters to produce artillery barrels in Yorkshire for Ukraine. In addition and on behalf of the International Fund for Ukraine, we will send Gravehawk, a U.K. designed air defense system, to their front line. (UKMOD X-account, 01.24.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• In a post on Jan. 22 on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin - and this despite the Radical Left’s Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process. All of that being said, I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a “deal,” and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way - and the easy way is always better. It’s time to ‘MAKE A DEAL.’ NO MORE LIVES SHOULD BE LOST!!!” (Truth Social, 01.22.25) It is likely that Trump’s Jan. 22  threat of “Taxes, Tariffs and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States” will have limited impact, given that the punitive measures the U.S. has already imposed on Russia led to a 90% decrease in the volume of goods and services the U.S. imports from Russia from 2021 to 2024.U.S imports from Russia had a total value of $2.88 billion in 2024, according to the U.S. Census bureau. In comparison, U.S. imports from Russia in the last full year prior to Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine totaled $29.6 billion.

  • The problem with Trump’s threat is that other than a small amount of fertilizer, animal feed, inorganic material like tin and machinery, Russia currently exports very little to the U.S. that could be subject to tariffs. Oil had been Russia’s largest export to the U.S., but such trade was zeroed out in 2023. The U.S. imported a total of $2.8 billion worth of these products from Russia in 2024, a tiny fraction of U.S. imports and a precipitous drop from 2023, when it was $4.5 billion, and 2022, when it was $14.4 billion, according to U.S. government statistics. (AP, 01.22.25)

  • "We do not see any particularly new elements," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about Trump's comments. Peskov said it was clear from Trump's first presidency that he "liked" sanctions and that Moscow was "closely monitoring" his statements. "We remain ready for dialogue, for equal, mutually respectful dialogue," Peskov added. (MT/AFP, 01.23.25)
• Hungary prolonged its blockage of the renewal of sanctions against Russia as Prime Minister Viktor Orban called on the European Union to pressure Ukraine to re-establish the transit of Russian gas to Europe. EU envoys were unable to roll over the sanctions during a meeting on Jan. 24 as Budapest pointed to energy security concerns during the closed-door discussion, people familiar with the matter said. The issue will now be addressed by the bloc’s foreign affairs ministers on Jan. 20 during a scheduled meeting just days before the sanctions expire on Jan. 31. (Bloomberg, 01.24.25)
  • EU diplomats told the Financial Times that Orbán would probably end up approving the rollover, after seeking to extract more concessions from the bloc — as he has often done in the past when an extension deadline was looming. (FT, 01.24.25)
• Euroclear Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Valerie Urbain warned of unintended consequences if the European Union were to confiscate frozen assets from Russia’s central bank. “There could always be also countermeasures from Russia which could further destabilize the financial markets,” Urbain said. (Bloomberg, 01.24.25)
• The U.S. went to court Jan. 21 to argue that a sanctioned billionaire is the true owner of a superyacht it seized in 2022, as the government goes after the assets of wealthy Russians over the war in Ukraine. The yacht, which costs U.S. taxpayers almost $750,000 a month to maintain and insure, is in U.S. custody in San Diego. The government is seeking to make sanctioned billionaire Suleiman Kerimov forfeit it. (Bloomberg, 01.21.25)
• The son of a top Kremlin official continues to hold investments in the West despite being sanctioned by the U.S., EU and Britain over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, The Moscow Times has learned. VK CEO Vladimir Kiriyenko — whose father is Putin’s domestic policy chief Sergei Kiriyenko — maintains links with Titanium VC, a venture capital fund he co-founded that he has previously used to invest in tech startups. (MT/AFP, 01.22.25)
• The Czech Senate has passed a law that effectively bars Russian nationals from obtaining Czech citizenship, according to Radio Svoboda. (Meduza, 01.23.25)
• The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office has declared as “undesirable” a company that produces data extraction software reportedly popular among Russian police. According to Russian authorities, the Czech firm Compelson s.r.o. creates software that enables access to information on electronic devices, including remotely, and supplies its tools to various countries, including the U.S. (Meduza, 01.21.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• When the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, suggested in late 2022 that Ukraine should capitalize on battlefield gains by seeking peace talks with Moscow, Antony Blinken insisted the fight should go on. (NYT, 01.18.25)
• On Jan. 19, Trump was reported to have directed his aides to arrange a call with Putin in the days after he’s sworn in, with one goal of the conversation to discuss an in-person meeting in the coming months to try to end the war in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.  (CNN, 01.19.25)
  • "Putin's ready, we're waiting for signals," Peskov said on Jan. 24 about a possible call with Trump. "Everyone is ready." (WSJ, updated 01.24.25)
• On Jan. 20, Trump vowed during his inaugural address to be a "peacemaker.” In separate remarks that day in the White House, Trump said that he may speak to Putin “very soon.” Trump referred to Russia’s losses as leverage for a potential deal to end the war. “He’s grinding it out, but most people thought that war would have been over in about one week,” Trump said. “I think he’d be very well off to end that war.” Trump said that he may speak to Putin “very soon.” Trump referred to Russia’s losses as leverage for a potential deal to end the war. “I think he’d be very well off to end that war,” Trump said of Putin. "I think, Russia is kinda in big trouble. You take a look at their economy, you take a look at their inflation in Russia. I got along with [Putin] great, I would hope he wants to make a deal," Trump said.  On that day, Trump also said that "[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy told me he wants to make a deal, I don’t know if Putin does ... He might not. I think he should make a deal. I think he’s destroying Russia by not making a deal," Trump said. (NYT, 01.24.25, RFE/RL, 01.22.25, Politico, 01.21.25)
• “Our efforts to secure a peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine are now, hopefully, underway. It’s so important to get that done...  It’s time to end it,” Trump told the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.23.25)
  • “Hopefully, China can help us stop the war with, in particular, Russia-Ukraine. And they have a great deal of power over that situation, and we’ll work with them,” Trump told the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.23.25)

    • Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning told a press conference on Jan. 24, when asked to comment on Trump’s stated hope that China will play a major and constructive role in ending the conflict in Ukraine: “Dialogue and negotiation is the only viable way to resolve the Ukraine crisis. We are happy to see that all parties play a constructive role and build conditions for de-escalation and the political settlement of the crisis. China will continue to promote peace talks and stands ready to maintain communication with other parties.” (PRC MFA, 01.24.25)

    • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Brazilian president’s special envoy Celso Amorim have agreed to consolidate efforts to promote dialogue on a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, the Chinese foreign ministry said after their phone call. "The crisis in Ukraine has been lasting for nearly three years. The consensus among all the parties calling for a ceasefire and political settlement, is consolidating and expanding," the ministry quoted Wang as saying. (TASS, 01.24.25)

  • When asked if there will be a peace agreement with Ukraine and Russia by next year’s gathering in Davos, Trump told the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23: “Well, you’re going to have to ask Russia. Ukraine is ready to — to make a deal,” he said. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.23.25)

  • “One thing — very important — I really would like to be able to meet with President Putin soon and get that war end — ended, and — and that’s not from the standpoint of economy or anything else.  It’s from the standpoint of millions of lives are being wasted,” Trump told the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.23.25)

• Asked by email why Trump had not fulfilled his campaign promise to end the war before his inauguration, Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s incoming White House press secretary, did not respond directly, but instead repeated that he will make it “a top priority in his second term.” Since his November election, Trump met with Zelenskyy and has spoken about meeting with Putin after his inauguration. (NYT, 01.19.25)
• On Jan. 22, newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that ending the war in Ukraine would be the “official policy” of the United States under Trump. “It’s a conflict that was started by Russia, but it is now a stalemate, a protracted, bloody conflict, it’s been incredibly destructive, I would argue, for both Russia and Ukraine. But Ukraine is paying the biggest price of all. […] We want to do everything we can to help it end,” Rubio said in an interview with CBS. Rubio added that the White House wants to find a resolution to the war that is “sustainable”: “We don’t just want to conflict to end and then restart in two, three, four years down the road. We want to bring stability.” (Meduza, 01.22.25)
• Trump’s special envoy for the Ukraine war, Keith Kellogg, delayed his visit to Ukraine because Trump had not formulated a plan to get the Russians to the negotiating table and bring the war to an end. Kellogg is expected to visit Kyiv next month but the Ukrainians may first meet him and other members of Trump’s team in Washington. David Arakhamia, head of Zelenskyy’s party’s faction in the Ukrainian parliament, said a delegation from Kyiv was planning to meet with members of the new administration in the U.S. capital in the coming days. (FT, 01.22.25)
  • Seth Jones, a political scientist and defense expert at CSIS, called Kellogg a serious thinker whose presence in Trump's orbit is meant to give heft to White House decision-making on Ukraine. But he said the Kremlin's personal attacks on Kellogg and his plan bode ill for any deal. (WSJ, 01.22.25)
• On Jan. 20, Putin told the Russian Security Council: “We observe that the newly elected President of the United States and his team have expressed a desire to re-establish direct contact with Russia, which the outgoing Administration had severed, through no fault of our own. Furthermore, we note his remarks on the necessity of doing everything possible to avert a third world war. Naturally, we welcome this stance and extend our congratulations to the President-elect of the United States of America on his inauguration... I wish to emphasize that we have never declined dialogue and have always been prepared to sustain amicable and cooperative relations with any American administration ... We are also open to dialogue with the new U.S. Administration concerning the Ukrainian conflict. The primary focus here should be addressing the root causes of the crisis, which we have discussed extensively. Concerning the resolution of the situation itself, I would like to reiterate that its objective should not be a temporary ceasefire or a pause to regroup forces and rearm for the eventual continuation of the conflict, but rather a lasting peace founded on respect for the legitimate interests of all individuals and peoples residing in this region.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.20.25)
• On Jan. 20, Sergei Lavrov told the Russian Security Council: “Unofficially, members of his [Trump’s] team and he, himself, have repeatedly spoken out about the Middle East and the Ukraine crisis, which Trump considers a priority area of his foreign policy activity with an eye to resolving it, making it clear that they understand the Russian position in some of its aspects: for example, regarding the unacceptability of Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. ... We are open to contacts. We have repeatedly confirmed this in response to relevant questions, with the understanding that we will have serious proposals from those of our colleagues who once suspended, or even broke off, relations with the Russian Federation.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.20.25)
• Putin has grown increasingly concerned about distortions in Russia's wartime economy, just as Trump pushes for an end to the Ukraine conflict, five sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters. Russia's economy, driven by exports of oil, gas and minerals, grew robustly over the past two years despite multiple rounds of Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But domestic activity has become strained in recent months by labor shortages and high interest rates introduced to tackle inflation. Putin believes key war goals have already been met, including control of land that connects mainland Russia to Crimea, and weakening Ukraine's military, said one of the sources familiar with thinking in the Kremlin. The Russian president also recognizes the strain the war is putting on the economy, the source said, citing "really big problems" such as the impact of the high interest rate on non-military businesses and industry. (Reuters, 01.23.25) When it comes to Putin’s publicly stated battlefield goals, one of them is full control of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. That goal has not been achieved. His publicly stated goals of “demilitarizing” Ukraine and obtaining legal guarantees of Ukraine’s neutrality also remain unfulfilled. Russia’s economy is facing a number of serious problems, but it is unlikely that these problems will force Putin to soften his negotiating position, especially given that Russian forces keep making incremental gains on the ground and that Russia’s economy is projected to continue to grow (though slowly)⁷ while its budget revenues have reached a “high” level.⁸ These factors have perhaps played a role behind Russian diplomats reportedly staking out hardline positions on the Ukraine war ahead of any talks, as reported by WP (see the next item). 
• Russian officials are staking out hard-line positions on the Ukraine war ahead of any talks and playing down any imminent major breakthrough on U.S.-Russia ties. On Jan. 22, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow sees a small window of opportunity to forge agreements with Trump's administration, but based on what many influential voices in the country are saying, the agreements would involve far-reaching changes in European security and the dismemberment of Ukraine. This formula, increasingly pushed by officials from Putin on down, involves a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine outside of NATO, with Russia keeping the territory it has already annexed. It may also encompass Moscow's demands for broader talks on Europe's security architecture and for NATO to roll back its military infrastructure from its eastern borders. (WP, 01.23.25)
  • Ukraine's refusal to join NATO is one of the key elements of the conflict settlement for Russia; Moscow will seek to make this the policy of the alliance itself, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told the Russia-24 TV channel on Jan. 24. "For us, this is one of the key elements of a possible agreement on the conflict in Ukraine, this is an element related to the elimination of the root causes of this conflict. And we will seek not only ironclad guarantees of international law, which exclude Ukraine's membership in NATO in any form, but we will also insist that this also become the policy of the alliance itself," the deputy minister said. (Interfax, 01.24.25)
• Zelenskyy said he hopes Trump will bring about a "just" end to Russia's war against his country and that he supports the new administration's push for increased defense spending by NATO nations. "Trump, he told me, and he later publicly stated it, that he will be doing everything to end the war this year," Zelenskyy told gathered leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 21. "We want to end the war this year. But not only with the word 'rapidly,' but also 'justly,'" Zelenskyy stressed, adding that Ukrainians deserved the right to live in “security.” (RFE/RL, 01.21.25)
• At Davos, Zelenskyy delivered an unflinching critique of Europe’s weakness, saying the region risked sinking into irrelevance unless it invested heavily in its own defense and deployed 200,000 troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire. He also said Ukraine will not agree to any demands from Putin to cut its army by five times. (Meduza, 01.21.25, Bloomberg, 01.22.25, FT, 01.21.25)
  • How realistic is Zelenskyy’s figure of 200,000 peacekeepers? Not at all, according to John Paul Rathbone of FT. That is far more than the number of troops that took part in the D-Day landings of the second world war. (FT, 01.23.25)
  • Ukrainian officials believe that between 40,000 and 50,000 foreign troops operating as a security force across the 1,000 kilometer frontline could be feasible, according to people involved in the discussions between Kyiv and its Western partners. (FT, 01.23.25)
  • Germany's defense minister said he was open to sending German soldiers to Ukraine to help secure a demilitarized zone there if a ceasefire were agreed with Russia, in remarks published Jan. 18. (MT/AFP, 01.18.25)
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha has welcome statements by Trump calling for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia and threatening to impose sanctions against Russia if Moscow refuses. Sybiha said at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23 that Trump’s message was “really strong” and called for increased pressure on Russia to force Moscow to negotiate. (RFE/RL, 01.24.25)
• European officials are seeking commitments from the new U.S. administration to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine as diplomatic pressure to end the Russian invasion mounts. The allies broadly agree with Zelenskyy that the U.S. will have to contribute troops to any future peacekeeping forces in the country to make such effort credible, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke under condition of anonymity. (Bloomberg, 01.24.25)
• NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte vowed that Ukraine would eventually join the military alliance and argued that negotiations should only begin after Ukraine was in a strong enough position. “If we get a bad [peace] deal, that would only mean that we will see the president of Russia high-fiving with the leaders across North Korea, Iran and China,” he said, referring to nations aligned with Moscow. Making sure Russia would never invade Ukraine must be a key goal, he argued, saying: “Obviously full NATO membership is then the easiest outcome.” (WSJ, 01.23.25)
• The majority of Ukrainians, 57%, agree that any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure, according to the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology as part of the IBIF project from Nov. 22, 2024, to Jan. 7, 2025. (Korrespondent.net, 01.23.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Trump, who took office this week, has ratcheted up his spending demands for NATO allies, saying he expects at least 5% of economic output to go to defense—more than twice the alliance’s current 2% benchmark. (Bloomberg, 01.22.25)
  • Trump plans to reduce America’s military presence in Europe by roughly 20%, withdrawing around 20,000 troops, the Italian news agency ANSA reported on Jan. 23, citing a European diplomatic source. (Meduza, 01.24.25)
  • Lithuania’s president suggested the Baltic nation could tap its foreign currency reserves to fund a boost in defense spending to more than 5% of economic output. (Bloomberg, 01.22.25)
• “This Russian-Ukrainian war that should have never started. If I were president, it would never have started. This is a war that should have never, ever been started. And—and it wasn’t started during my—there was never even talk about it. I knew that it was the apple of President Putin’s eye, but I also knew that there was no way he was going in, and he wasn’t going to go in. And then, when I was out, bad things happened, bad things were said, a lot of stupidity all around, and you end up with what you have,” Trump told the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.23.25)
• Representative Elise Stefanik, Republican of New York and President Trump’s pick to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, stressed the importance of countering China’s influence at the United Nations. But she had less specific recommendations when it came to countering Russia, and holding Moscow to account for the invasion of Ukraine. “I support President Trump’s commitment to bringing this war to a resolution to stop the killing,” she said, adding that those efforts would “deter Russia in the long term.” (NYT, 01.22.25)
• Britain’s defense minister has warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that “we will not shy away from robust action” after telling parliament that a Russian spy vessel had been operating in U.K. waters for the second time since November. John Healey said the Russian spy ship, Yantar, had been tracked in the English Channel by a warship after loitering over critical undersea infrastructure. A Royal Navy submarine surfaced near the Yantar to warn that its every move had been monitored, he said. (FT, 01.22.25)
  • Russia on Jan. 24 denied ever targeting underwater communications cables. In a statement cited by Russian state news agencies, Moscow's Embassy in London said: "The accusations made by the British defense establishment against Russia of creating some kind of threat to the underwater communications of the country and its NATO allies are absolutely untenable. Such threats never come from Russia." It accused London of "inflaming tensions" in the Baltic and North Sea. (MT/AFP, 01.23.25)
• Ruptures of undersea cables that have rattled European security officials in recent months were likely the result of maritime accidents rather than Russian sabotage, according to several U.S. and European intelligence officials. U.S. and European officials said that the evidence gathered to date—including intercepted communications and other classified intelligence—points to accidents caused by inexperienced crews serving aboard poorly maintained vessels. (WP, 01.19.25)
  • A Finnish court ordered the seizure of the Eagle-S oil tanker suspected of damaging key telecommunications and power cables in the Baltic Sea, the Finnish public broadcaster Yle reported Jan. 20. (MT/AFP, 01.21.25)
• The head of EU foreign policy, former head of the Estonian government Kaija Kallas, said at a conference of the European Defense Agency in Brussels that European intelligence services warned of a possible Russian attack on the EU in 2028. (Istories, 01.22.25)
• The European Union must arm itself to “survive” in an increasingly uncertain global order, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, calling on the bloc to help member nations finance a build up in defense spending. (Bloomberg, 01.22.25)
• A new report details how a covert influence operation linked to the Kremlin continued to place ads on Facebook despite U.S. and E.U. prohibitions on doing business with the organization. A Russian organization linked to the Kremlin's covert influence campaigns posted more than 8,000 political advertisements on Facebook despite European and American restrictions barring companies from doing business with the organization, according to three organizations that track disinformation online. The Russian group, the Social Design Agency, evaded lax enforcement by Facebook to place an estimated $338,000 worth of ads aimed at European users over a period of 15 months that ended in October, Check First, Reset.tech and AI Forensics said in a report released on Jan. 17. (NYT, 01.18.25)
• As many as 84% of Indians think Trump's victory is a good thing for their country, according to the ECFR poll, which was conducted after the U.S. presidential elections in November. Russians are 3rd most optimistic about benefits of Trump's 2nd presidency for their country (after India and Saudi Arabia), with 49% thinking Russia will benefit from Trump's return and only 8% of Russians thinking the opposite. (RM, 01.23.25)

Do you think the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president is a good or a bad thing for your country?

• As many as 71% of Indians think Russia will have more global influence over the next decade, according to the ECFR poll, which was conducted after the U.S. presidential elections in November. That’s even more than the share of Russians who think so (68%). In contrast, only 35% of Americans hold that view. (RM, 01.23.25)

Do you think Russia will have more or less global influence over the next decade, as compared to today, or will its influence remain unchanged?

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• On Jan. 21 Putin held a video call with Xi Jinping, China’s leader, greeting him as his “dear friend.” Chinese state media said Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin pledged to work together “to cope with uncertainties in the external environment,” and that they would “jointly defend the international system with the United Nations as the core.” Mr. Ushakov, the Kremlin aide, told reporters that Mr. Xi briefed Mr. Putin on his call with Mr. Trump last week. Mr. Ushakov said that both leaders “expressed their readiness to build relations with the United States on a mutually beneficial and respectful basis, if Trump’s team shows reciprocal interest in this.” (NYT, 01.21.25)
  • Putin told Xi: “We are developing our ties on the basis of friendship, mutual trust and support, equality and mutual benefit. These ties are self-sufficient, as they do not depend on any domestic political factors or the current global situation. Their all-round strengthening fully meets the goals of the comprehensive development of Russia and China and the improvement of our peoples’ well-being… It can be said confidently that our foreign policy ties and Russia and China's joint efforts objectively play a major stabilizing role in international affairs.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.21.25)
  • Xi told Putin during a Jan. 21 conference call: “President Putin, my dear friend, I am very happy to see you. Our countries are collaborating actively within the framework of the U.N., the SCO, BRICS and other international platforms. This provides additional positive energy for overhauling and streamlining the system of global governance. Russia and China will support the U.N.-centric international system… This year, I am ready, together with you, to elevate Chinese-Russian relations to a new level, to counter external uncertainties by preserving stability and resilience of Chinese-Russian relations, for the development and prosperity of both countries and for justice and equality in the world. (Kremlin.ru, 01.21.25)
• Chinese IT companies are rapidly expanding their footprint in Russia, capitalizing on new opportunities created by the ongoing war in Ukraine and extreme Western sanctions that have banned tech exports to Russia. According to Kommersant, the number of Russian and Chinese IT companies that approached the Russian-Asian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RASPP) rose 18% in 2024, seeking assistance to access “friendly markets.” (MT/AFP, 01.24.25)
• China’s population declined by almost 1.4 million people in 2024. (FT, 01.18.25)
• Only 39% of Chinese view Russia as an ally whereas 61% of Indians hold that view, according to the ECFR poll, which was conducted after the U.S. presidential elections in November. Some 48% of the poll’s respondents in China view Russia a necessary partner while 8% view Moscow as Beijing’s adversary.

Generally speaking, thinking about Russia, which of the following best reflects your view on what it is to your country?

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• “We’d like to see denuclearization. In fact, with President Putin, prior to a—an election result, which was, frankly, ridiculous, we were talking about denuclearization of our two countries, and China would have come along. China has a—a much smaller, right now, nuclear armament than U.S. or field than U.S., but they’re—they’re going to be catching it at some point over the next four or five years. And I will tell you that President Putin really liked the idea of—of cutting way back on nuclear. And I think the rest of the world, we would have gotten them to follow. And China would have come along too. China also liked it,” President Donald Trump told the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.23.25)
  • Moscow believes it is necessary to resume arms control negotiations with Washington “as soon as possible,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said. The legal framework for arms control has been “significantly undermined, and not through Russia’s fault,” Peskov said. He emphasized that restarting talks between the two nations was “in the interest of the entire world and the peoples [of both countries].”“Of course, we are interested to begin this negotiation process as soon as possible," Peskov said. "But I’d like to remind you of President Putin’s words that, under the current circumstances, all nuclear capabilities must be taken into account. For instance, it’s impossible to negotiate without considering the nuclear arsenals of France and the United Kingdom,” he added. (Meduza, 01.24.25)  While stating Russia’s readiness to engage in arms control talks “as soon as possible,” Peskov did not mention in his Jan. 24 comments Moscow’s repeated position that such talks cannot be compartmentalized. This position doesn’t appear to have changed.    

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Syria’s new government terminated a treaty granting Russia a long-term military presence in the Mediterranean, a deal brokered under ousted leader Bashar al-Assad, Syrian media reported Jan. 21. The agreement, signed in 2017, extended the Russian Navy’s lease on the port of Tartus for 49 years. The de facto authorities in Tartus reportedly annulled the agreement and demanded the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces, the Syrian opposition news outlet Shaam reported Jan. 20, citing the regime’s ministry of information. Authorities also said that revenue from the port would “now benefit the Syrian state,” reversing the previous agreement under which Russia received 65% of Tartus’ profits. (MT/AFP, 01.22.25)
  • Russian milbloggers complained and expressed concern over recent claims that the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim government in Syria suspended Russian investment and financial involvement in the port of Tartus as Russia's long-term military presence in Syria remains unclear. (ISW, 01.22.25)
• European countries look set to agree to ease sanctions on Syria as a way to support the country's political transition, influence its new Islamist leaders and diminish Russia's sway in the region, according to five European diplomats and two internal documents reviewed by The Washington Post. (WP, 01.24.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil. If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately. Right now, the price is high enough that that war will continue. You got to bring down the oil price; you’re going to end that war. They should have done it long ago. They’re very responsible, actually, to a certain extent, for what’s taking place—millions of lives are being lost,” President Donald Trump told the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23. (Whitehouse.gov, 01.23.25)
• Oilfield services giant SLB is resisting rising pressure to exit Russia. SLB, previously called Schlumberger, said it was reviewing tough rules issued by the Biden administration last week prohibiting the provision of U.S. petroleum services in Russia. But the company’s chief executive Olivier Le Peuch told investors on a conference call that he believed at this point its operations “aligned with the new sanctions.” The Houston-headquartered company added the contribution of its Russian operations fell to 4% of its global revenues in 2024, or about $1.4 billion, from 5% a year earlier. (FT, 01.18.25)
• A chunk of Russia’s oil tanker fleet is being forced to change the flag they sail under as U.S. and U.K. sanctions heap pressure on Moscow’s shipping network. The Barbados ship registry said that by the end of the month it will have asked a total of 46 ships to remove the country’s flag as a result of U.K. sanctions. Fourteen of these are also sanctioned by the U.S.. Separately, Panama’s ship registry said earlier this month that it had begun to de-list 68 vessels that were sanctioned by the U.S.. The latest moves follow the most sweeping sanctions on Russia’s exports to date earlier this month. (Bloomberg, 01.23.25)
• Tankers that used to haul oil from Russia’s western ports are being redeployed to the nation’s east to service a key crude route to China that’s been crippled by sweeping U.S. sanctions. (Bloomberg, 01.22.25)
• Crude oil purchases by Indian Oil Corp. may shift as the new U.S. sanctions on Russia affect supplies from Moscow, pushing the South Asian country’s biggest refiner to seek alternatives. Before Russia’s war in Ukraine, India used to buy less than 2% of its total oil imports from Moscow. However, the volume surged to almost 45% in the middle of last year, according to data compiled by analytics firm Kpler.” (Bloomberg, 01.22.25)
• Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico discussed the potential for securing Russian gas through Turkey with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who pledged Ankara’s help in finding a solution with Moscow. (Bloomberg, 01.20.25)
• Portugal hopes to further decrease the share of natural gas supplies Only 4.4% of last year’s gas supplies came from Russia, down from 8% in 2023. (Bloomberg, 01.21.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russia slammed U.S. President Donald Trump for reinstating its ally Cuba on a list of state sponsors of terrorism, saying the measure was aimed at destabilizing the island and prompting regime change. (MT/AFP, 01.21.25)
• Russian state media, officials and prominent bloggers responded to Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president with cautious enthusiasm on Jan. 20, hoping for improved ties but noting that his unpredictable style could backfire on Moscow. (MT/AFP, 01.20.25)
• Exiled Russian opposition activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky said he was in attendance at U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. (MT/AFP, 01.20.25)
• Alphabet Inc.’s Google won a U.K. court ruling to block Russian media firms from seizing the tech giant’s global assets to recover Russian court-imposed fines that have now accrued interest equal to many times more than the world’s economy combined. (Bloomberg, 01.22.25)
• A Russian man who tried to pass on classified information to the United States was sentenced to 17 years in jail for "high treason," Russian news agencies reported Jan. 23. Dmitry Shatresov, who was arrested in Jan. 2024, "illegally obtained" state secrets and "intended to transfer them to an American intelligence representative" before he was caught by law enforcement. (MT/AFP, 01.23.25)
• Russia’s representative to the International Monetary Fund’s executive board has received permission by Washington to move to the U.S., a reprieve from sanctions imposed in response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ksenia Yudaeva, who for a decade was first deputy governor at Russia’s central bank, was nominated as an IMF executive director in September. She will soon depart for the U.S. capital after the Treasury Department cleared the move. (Bloomberg, 01.22.25)
• U.S. podcaster Lex Fridman said Jan. 22 that he plans to visit Moscow and interview Putin. (MT/AFP, 01.23.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s budget revenue rose to a record high last month even after the U.S. targeted the banking sector with a new round of sanctions aimed at disrupting foreign trade payments and curbing proceeds from exports. Total revenue in December reached more than 4 trillion rubles ($40 billion), up by 28% compared with the same month of the previous year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published late Jan. 20. That’s the highest level recorded in ministry data that starts from January 2011. (Bloomberg, 01.21.25)
• Russia’s agricultural harvest came in below expectations in 2024 due to poor weather conditions and supply chain problems, according to the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT). Production of key field crops declined to approximately 125 million tons, down 14% from an all-time record harvest of 153–155 million tons of grain in 2023. Wheat output fell to 82 million tons, a 16% decrease, while other crops, including maize, barley and sugar beets, recorded drops of around 20%. Potato production was down by 10%. (MT/AFP, 01.21.25)
• Russia is preparing for the first major wave of bankruptcies since the invasion of Ukraine, with the coal industry being the key area of concern. The situation in the sector is so desperate that the government has already tasked Vnesheconombank with stepping in to save bankrupt companies. (Bell, 01.23.25)
• In 2021, according to Forbes calculations, there were 123 of Russian billionaires, and in 2024, there are 125. The total wealth of Russian dollar billionaires decreased by 5.62%, from $607.2 billion to $573.1 billion. This is a small decrease considering that the ruble has depreciated by about a quarter compared to 2021. At the same time, the composition of the Forbes ranking and the order of its participants underwent significant changes. While in 2021 no new names appeared in the list, and in 2022 there were only two, in 2023—eight, and in 2024—nineteen. This is the highest number of new dollar billionaires Russia has produced since 2011, note the ranking’s authors. Surprisingly, the wealthiest Russian businessmen under sanctions from the U.S., EU, or the U.K. showed the best results in the war conditions, according to research by the London School of Economics. (Re:Russia, 01.15.25. )
• Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late Feb. 2022, more than 100 lawmakers and state officials at both the federal and regional levels have vowed to serve in the armed forces and pitch in on the battlefield. However, according to a new investigation by Novaya Gazeta Europe, the vast majority of these men decided against enlisting fully with the military. (Meduza, 01.17.25)
• Russia’s state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring added exiled politician Leonid Gozman to the country’s list of “terrorists and extremists.” A Moscow court sentenced Gozman, 74, to eight and a half years in prison in absentia last year for criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 01.22.25)
• Jean Gregoire Sagbo, Russia’s first and only Black politician, has died at the age of 65, his colleague said on social media Jan. 21. Originally from Benin, Sagbo came to the Soviet Union in the early 1980s to study economics. He later settled in the village of Zavidovo in the Tver region, around 100 kilometers (62 miles) north of Moscow, after marrying a local woman. (MT/AFP, 01.22.25)
• A Dec. 2024 Levada Center poll of Russian public opinion on “life situation assessments” finds about half of Russians are now satisfied with the life they lead: 51%. Partly satisfied, partly not satisfied with the life of every third respondents (35%), these indicators have practically not changed over the past six months. Another 13% of respondents said that the life they now lead does not suit them, this indicator remains at the lowest level in the history of measurements (the maximum values were noted in March and June 1992, and in September 1998, when two-thirds of the respondents reported they were not satisfied with life). Last, but not the least, the survey reports a gender gap of 10% between men and women reporting life satisfaction; with 57% of men reporting being satisfied, and only 47% of women reporting the same thing. (Levada Center, 01.22.25) Machine translated.

Defense and aerospace:

• Law enforcement authorities in the Siberian republic of Tyva arrested a military police officer suspected of beating wounded soldiers before their deployment to Ukraine, Russian media reported Jan. 20, citing the defense ministry. (MT/AFP, 01.20.25)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• The volume of cocaine seized by Russian authorities has surged since the country launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, reflecting a significant shift in international smuggling routes and techniques, the pro-Kremlin daily Izvestia has reported. Between 2023 and 2024, Russian officials confiscated approximately 5.2 tons of cocaine valued at 350 billion rubles ($3.4 billion), a tenfold increase on earlier levels, according to the Moscow-based outlet. (MT/AFP, 01.21.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Saudi Arabia’s membership in the BRICS bloc of emerging economies is still being assessed more than a year after the kingdom was invited to join the alliance, according to the country’s minister of economy and planning. “The kingdom is always focusing on fostering more global dialogue,” Faisal Al-Ibrahim said. (Bloomberg, 01.20.25)
• Nigeria has become a partner state of the BRICS group of emerging-market powers. (Bloomberg, 01.18.25)
• India is considering a $450 million deal to sell Russian-backed supersonic cruise missiles to Indonesia as the Southeast Asian country looks to bolster defenses, according to people familiar with the matter. The sale of the BrahMos cruise missiles is expected to be announced as early as this week. (Bloomberg, 01.21.25)
• A small group of Russian diplomats broke off from a public tour of the Houses of Parliament in London last month and entered a part of the House of Lords that was “out of bounds,” The Guardian reported on Jan. 23, calling the incident “a major security breach.” (Meduza, 01.18.25)
• Russian nationals continued to be the top foreign buyers of property in Turkey in December 2024, a ranking they have held since April 2022, the RBC news website reported, citing data from Turkey's state statistics agency Turkstat. In the reporting month of December 2024, Russian nationals bought 438 residential properties in Turkey. (MT/AFP, 01.23.25)

Ukraine:

• Mr. Trump’s arrival comes at a precarious time for Mr. Zelenskyy domestically. The soaring popularity he experienced early in the war—with an approval rating of about 90%—has been slumping badly. The latest polling shows support sinking to nearly 50%, and it falls even lower in surveys that gauge his popularity against potential competitors if elections were held in the wake of a cease-fire agreement with Russia. And a new trouble spot for Mr. Zelenskyy has emerged: the revival of political opposition in Ukraine, animated by the prospects of a cease-fire and the elections that could soon follow. (NYT, 01.23.25)
• Ukraine has detained its army's chief psychiatrist for alleged "illegal enrichment" charges related to earnings of more than $1 million (£813,000) accrued since the start of Russia's invasion in February 2022. In a statement, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said the man sat on a commission deciding whether individuals were fit for military service. He now faces ten years in jail for the alleged charges of illegal enrichment and making a false declaration. (BBC, 01.21.25)
• The Security Service and the National Police prevented new attempts to illegally sell weapons and ammunition in different regions of Ukraine. Ten dealers who tried to sell "trophy" weapons to criminals were detained. This was reported by the SBU press service on Jan. 22, Jan. 23. (Korrespondent.net, 01.23.25)
• In nine regions of Ukraine, law enforcement officers exposed 13 military officials who illegally calculated more than 13 million hryvnia ($309,366) in payments to servicemen who were not actually in the zone of active combat operations. This was reported by the press service of the National Police on Jan. 23, Jan. 23. (Korrespondent.net, 01.23.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russia and Uzbekistan adopted a military strategic partnership program set to run through 2030, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Jan. 22, as Moscow looks to deepen ties with traditional allies amid isolation from the West. The plan outlines 50 unspecified “joint military activities” scheduled for 2025, followed by broader strategic initiatives between 2026 and 2030, according to the ministry’s statement. (MT/AFP, 01.22.25)
• NATO officials are reportedly preparing for a joint NATO-Georgia exercise scheduled for March 2025. (ISW, 01.18.25)
• Some 18 months after regaining control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Azerbaijan has begun putting the former leaders of the breakaway pro-Armenian republic on trial. The most high-profile among them is Ruben Vardanyan, an investment banker who managed the finances of the Russian elite before giving it all up in an effort to try to keep Karabakh under Armenian control. In total, 16 former leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh face trial in Azerbaijan, including three former presidents. (BELL, 01.24.25)
• Protests erupted across Transnistria on Jan. 24, with residents of the Moscow-backed separatist region demanding Moldovan authorities provide gas supplies amid an ongoing energy crisis. Russia’s Gazprom halted gas supplies to Transnistria on Jan. 1, citing a $709-million debt dispute with Moldova. The Kremlin blamed Moldova and Ukraine for the disruptions, which have left around 400,000 residents without heating or hot water. (MT/AFP, 01.24.25)
• Belarusians go to the polls this weekend to vote in a presidential election that is almost certain to see incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko returned to office for a seventh term. (MT/AFP, 01.24.25)⁹

IV. Quotable and notable

• Some see Russia and its desire to continue the war collapsing under economic and business pressure Charles Kupchan said. ''But I see the opposite: Russia is OK and Ukraine is running out of gas, without enough manpower or air defense, and it's not like it's all sitting in Western warehouses—we don't have it.'' (NYT, 01.17.25)
• Russia’s much larger population and more effective recruitment have allowed it to replace losses more effectively, and to gradually push forward, said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst. “The fat man grows thinner. But the thin man dies,” Gady said. (NYT, 01.23.25)
• "In spring the conditions won't be ripe for an end to the war," said Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin analyst. "But by autumn, while Trump reduces financing and while the Russian army makes further progress, maybe by then there will be better political conditions." 
• (WP, 01.23.25)
• An American official, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the topic, said that Putin wanted ''not just a neutral Ukraine but a neutered one.'' (NYT, 01.17.25)

Footnotes

1. Russia has been cooperating with OPEC in the so-called OPEC+ format to set quotas for years in what could make at least some OPEC members reluctant to heed Trump’s call.
2. It is likely that Trump’s Jan. 22  threat of “Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States” will have limited impact, given that the punitive measures the U.S. has already imposed on Russia led to a 90% decrease in the volume of goods and services the U.S. imports from Russia from 2021 to 2024. U.S imports from Russia had a total value of $2.88 billion in 2024, according to the U.S. Census bureau. In comparison, U.S. imports from Russia in 2021, which was the last full year prior to Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine, totaled $29.6 billion.
3. More than 700,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured in the Russian-Ukrainian war, according to a January 2025 estimate by Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken. As for the Ukrainian military, it has lost 400,000 killed or injured, according to Austin’s and Blinken’s estimate. According to Trump’s own Jan. 21, 2025, estimate, 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed. According to Trump’s January 2025 estimate, 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. As for civilian fatalities, more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, according to the U.N., while more than 360 Russian civilians have been killed. Neither of these estimates add up to “millions” killed, which is what Trump said in his video address to the WEF on Jan. 23, 2025.
4. While stating Russia’s readiness to engage in arms control talks, Peskov did not mention in his Jan. 24 comments Moscow’s repeated position that such talks cannot be compartmentalized. This position doesn’t appear to have changed.   
5. For a detailed account of  how an elite Ukrainian unit captured a DPRK soldier, see here: WSJ, 01.19.24
6. For a detailed account of some Ukrainian POWs’ experience, see “Putin's Torturers Couldn't Break These Ukrainian Prisoners,” WSJ, 01.21.25.
7. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook anticipates Russia’s economic growth will slow from 3.8% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026
8. Russia’s budget revenue reached $40 billion in December 2024, which is the highest level recorded in ministry data that starts from January 2011, according to Bloomberg.
9. For a detailed report on Belarus ahead of elections, see FT.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka.