5 Things to Know

1. This week’s whirlwind of Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Miami, then in Davos, then in Moscow, then in Abu Dabi¹ yielded (as of Jan. 23) no public breakthrough with the main (if not the only) sticking point reported to be Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede control of the part of Donbas (Donetsk Oblast + Luhansk Oblast), which remains under Kyiv’s control. The Russian side, which reportedly agreed during the Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage last August to drop demands for similar withdrawals of the Ukranian forces from the Kyiv-controlled parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, remains firmly opposed to relinquishing its territorial ambitions in Donbas, repeatedly vowing to win control over the entirety of this eastern region with force if diplomacy fails to deliver such control. However, Kyiv is presently opposed to the idea of yielding control of about 10.6% of Donbas’s (an area of 2,187 square miles) it controlled as of late last month, even though Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously hinted this issue can be put to a vote in Ukraine. If reports that the main sticking point in the Ukrainian-Russian talks is 2,187 square miles, which Ukraine controls in Donbas, are, indeed, accurate, then it might be, perhaps, useful to put this number into context: losing the aforementioned 2,187 square miles (remainder of Donbas) would amount to loss of about 1.2% of Ukrainian territory Kyiv presently controls.²
2. RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Dec. 23, 2025–Jan. 20, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 63 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, a decrease over the 139 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Nov. 25–Dec. 23, 2025), according to the 01.21.25 issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past week (Jan. 13–20, 2026): Russia gained 36 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about one and three-quarters the area of New York’s Manhattan Island), according to the card. On the ground, Russia’s territorial gains this week has included Rybne in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to DeepState. In 2025, the average monthly rate of Russian gains was 171 square miles, according to the card.
3. Drones have emerged as the most decisive and most rapidly evolving weapon in the attritional war between Russia and Ukraine, accounting for three-quarters of recent casualties, Financial Times reported. Both Russia and Ukraine have moved to build up their own production capability, mostly utilizing Chinese componentry, according to Financial Times. Ukraine remains dependent on China for about 85% of the components that go into simple first-person view drones according to FT. As for Russia’s use of Chinese parts, an analysis of downed Russian drones by Kyiv’s Centre for Defense Reforms showed that Chinese parts narrowly edged out U.S. parts in 2025, with Swiss components coming in third.
4. Over 1 million Ukrainians are without electricity, water and heating in freezing temperatures following relentless Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, according to an estimate released by The European Commission on Jan. 22. That day, according to Ukraine’s energy minister Denys Shmyhal, was “the hardest day for the energy sector since the 2022 blackout,” RBC.ua reported. Speaking on the following day, Maxim Timchenko, CEO of Ukraine's top private energy firm, told Reuters the situation was "close to a humanitarian catastrophe.”
5. Russia has benefited from a wartime gold windfall: the value of the Bank of Russia’s gold holdings has risen by more than $216 billion since February 2022, according to Bloomberg, roughly offsetting the scale of sovereign reserves frozen in Europe.³ In other good news for the Kremlin, Russia’s National Wellbeing Fund grew for the first time since the full‑scale invasion, with liquid assets up 7% in 2025 to 4.1 trillion rubles ($52.6 billion), as the Kremlin slowed drawdowns while covering a record 5.6 trillion ruble deficit via borrowing. At the same time, however, Russia’s oil and gas tax revenues fell 24% in 2025 to about 8.5 trillion rubles, the lowest in five years.⁴ In addition IMF cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026 GDP growth to 0.8%, down from 1%, leaving Russia trailing the projected 4.2% average for emerging markets.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine’s Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant briefly lost all external power on Jan. 20 after massive Russian strikes on energy infrastructure severed key grid connections, before being reconnected the same day, with Kyiv warning that the already damaged protective structure over the destroyed fourth reactor remains critically vulnerable to further attacks despite radiation levels staying within safety limits. (Meduza, 01.21.26)
• Repair works have begun on the backup power line connecting the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to the power grid under an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-brokered local ceasefire, the agency announced on Jan. 18. The 330-kilovolt (kV) power line, damaged and disconnected by military activity on Jan. 2, is vital for supplying the plant with external electricity, with the agency describing the repair work as "crucial" to maintaining stable operation. (Kyiv Independent, 01.18.26)
• Western nuclear fuel executives warn that Europe still relies on Russia for about 23% of its enriched uranium imports (around 2.5 million SWU in 2024), risking decades of strategic dependence as cheap Russian supply and lack of EU policy clarity slow investment, even though Urenco and Orano are planning roughly 5 million SWU of extra capacity (including Orano’s €1.7 billion (~$1.9 billion) Tricastin expansion and a €5 billion (~$5.4 billion) U.S. plant backed by €900 million (~$1.0 billion) from Washington) that will mostly only come online after 2032. (Financial Times, 01.21.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The United Nations nuclear watchdog sees Iran in a “very fragile” state amid stalled diplomatic efforts and nationwide protests that convulsed the country earlier this month. Talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have failed to yield access to nuclear sites bombed by Israel and the U.S. in June, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. Iran retains its stockpile of highly-enriched uranium and would be able to rebuild its program with relative ease, he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Davos. (Bloomberg, 01.21.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Monday, Jan. 19, 2026

• BlackRock has been enlisted to help design Ukraine’s $800 billion “prosperity plan,” even after an earlier BlackRock effort to mobilize $50–80 billion (later cut to $15–30 billion) was shelved in 2025 amid European resistance. The new U.S.-backed blueprint leans on tapping roughly $250 billion in frozen Russian assets and assumes about $500 billion in public funds, stoking fears Washington is steering reconstruction toward U.S. commercial interests. (New York Times, 01.19.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• Europe and the United States failed to sign a planned $800 billion postwar “prosperity plan” for Ukraine at the Davos World Economic Forum after a sharp transatlantic rift over Donald Trump’s push to buy or seize Greenland and his proposal for a Trump‑chaired “Board of Peace” as an alternative to the UN Security Council. (Istories, 01.21.26; Financial Times, 01.21.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• Over one million Ukrainians are without electricity, water and heating in freezing temperatures following relentless Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. The European Commission is today deploying 447 emergency generators worth €3.7 million ($4.4 mn) from EU strategic reserves to restore power to hospitals, shelters and critical services. (European Commission, 01.22.26)
• Ukraine’s energy minister Denys Shmyhal said Jan. 22 was “the hardest day for the energy sector since the 2022 blackout,” citing repeated Russian strikes that have damaged generation equipment, distribution networks, and transformers, forcing Ukrenergo to apply emergency outage schedules, with the worst situation in Kyiv, Kyiv region, and Dnipropetrovsk and dozens of repair brigades working around the clock under constant air‑raid alerts. (RBC.ua, 01.22.26)
• Ukrainian officials in Kyiv warn the capital is “a few steps away from disaster” as Russian strikes on substations and thermal plants in -20°C weather have left around 1 million users without power. (The Economist, 01.22.26)
• Ukraine’s security chief and Davos delegation head Rustem Umerov said Kyiv held talks with BlackRock, the prime ministers of Norway and Qatar, and U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, focusing on postwar reconstruction, investment, and security guarantees. (RBC.ua, 01.22.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said the capital’s energy situation remains “extremely difficult,” warning that new Russian strikes on critical infrastructure are likely and again urging residents who can to temporarily leave the city and stock up on food, water, and medicines, while authorities prepare expanded heating and shelter points and shift workplaces to flexible or remote schedules. (RBC.ua, 01.23.26)
• Ukraine’s SBU published the interrogation of Russian soldier Sergei Skobelev from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade, who admitted that in October 2024 he and an accomplice executed nine captured Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk region—forcing them to undress, lie on the ground, falsely promising exchange, then shooting them on his commander’s order—after which he was himself captured and now faces war-crimes charges. (Korrespondent.net, 01.23.26)
• Russia has floated the idea of using the bulk of nearly $5 billion of Russian assets frozen in the United States to fund a recovery of Russian-occupied territory inside Ukraine. Ukraine, backed by European allies, demands that Russia pay it reparations. (Reuters, 01.23.26)

For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Dec. 23, 2025–Jan. 20, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 63 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, a decrease over the 139 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Nov. 25–Dec. 23, 2025), according to the 01.21.25 issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 01.21.25)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• On Friday, Jan. 16, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Sofiyivka. (RM, 01.23.25)
• Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and Western Group commander Sergei Kuzovlev are still claiming Russia “controls all areas of Kupyansk” and is clearing the town, echoing earlier boasts by Valery Gerasimov. In reality, Ukrainian forces have largely liberated Kupyansk and its environs; ISW and even Russian milbloggers say only small Russian groups remain and recent activity has been limited to a single infiltration near Podoly, underscoring the gap between Kremlin narratives and the battlefield. (ISW, 01.16.26)
• Claims that the Dnipro river has “frozen” near Kherson are exaggerated, noting that only a thin ice crust is visible and “does not support a person’s weight.” Freezing so far affects only some channels, while the main riverbed by Kherson remains ice‑free. The site stresses, however, that if severe cold persists and the Dnipro develops load‑bearing ice, it could sharply change the military situation along a vast stretch of the front, since the river forms the line between Ukrainian and Russian forces from Kherson’s delta up toward Stepnohirsk and Prymorske, potentially enabling either side to attempt crossings over the ice. (strana.ua, 01.16.26)

Saturday, Jan. 17, 2028

• On Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Svyato-Pokrovske and Fedorivka. (RM, 01.23.25)
• Russian analysts say the army’s tank fleet has fallen from about 10,000 to just over 3,000, with only 200 new tanks produced annually, while more than 190 weapon systems have been “modernized.” Drones now account for roughly 70% of Russian combat deaths, and new recruits get about three weeks of training versus 20 in Western armies, prompting small assault teams of just 2–5 soldiers. (NYT, 01.17.26)

Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026

• On Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Siversk, Kostiantynivka and in Pokrovsk. (RM, 01.23.25)
• Russia has sharply escalated long‑range strikes on Ukraine’s power system, launching 201 Shahed, Gerbera and other drones on the night of Jan. 17–18; Ukraine says 30 broke through to hit 15 targets, including critical infrastructure in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Odesa, worsening rolling blackouts that have left Kyiv with only about half the electricity it needs. At least two people were killed and six wounded in Dnipropetrovsk region. Zelenskyy has declared a state of emergency in the energy sector and is pushing to boost electricity imports while appealing for additional air‑defense systems. Zelenskyy said that over the past week Russia used more than 1,300 attack drones, 1,050 guided aerial bombs and 29 missiles, including the 201‑drone wave, of which Ukrainian forces reported shooting down 167. (Institute for the Study of War, 01.18.26; Washington Post, 01.18.26; Moscow Times, 01.18.26)
• Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian‑occupied southern Ukraine severely hit local energy infrastructure, leaving about 213,000 customers and 386 settlements without electricity in the Russia‑controlled parts of Zaporizhzhia region, according to Moscow‑installed governor Yevgeny Balitsky. In neighboring occupied Kherson, a strike on an electrical substation caused outages in 14 towns and 450 villages before emergency repairs restored power. Inside Russia, debris from a downed Ukrainian drone in North Ossetia injured three people and forced 70 residents to evacuate a five‑story apartment building, underscoring the growing reach of Ukrainian long‑range attacks on Russian and occupation‑run targets. (Washington Post, 01.18.26; Moscow Times/AFP, 01.18.26)
• Russian forces destroyed a U.S. made M142 HIMARS launcher operated by the armed forces of Ukraine. This is the 5^th M142 HIMARs launcher visibly confirmed to be destroyed in Ukraine. (Status-6 X Account, 01.18.26)

Monday, Jan. 19, 2026

• On Monday, Jan. 19, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Rybne and advanced near Solodke, Rodynske and Pokrovsk. (RM, 01.23.25)
• Ukrainian forces say they have confined fewer than 100 Russian soldiers to roughly one square kilometer in central Kupyansk, blocking heavy equipment and hunting infiltrators using drones. Commanders estimate fully clearing the city could take six more months but call the operation a major victory. (Washington Post, 01.19.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

• Russia’s Jan. 19–20 strike used more than 300 attack drones and 34 missiles, including 18 Iskander‑M/S‑300, one Zirkon and 15 Kh‑101s, plus roughly 339 drones (about 250 Shaheds). Ukraine says it downed 13 Kh‑101s and 315 drones. In Kyiv, about 5,600 high‑rise buildings—around half the city’s housing stock—lost heat, over 1 million consumers were at times without power, and parts of the left bank lost water as temperatures fell to –14°C. Roughly 173,000 households were without electricity; by evening, heat had been restored to only about 1,600 buildings, leaving some 4,000 still without heating. (New York Times, 01.22.26; ISW, 01.20.26; Istories, 01.20.26; Washington Post/AP, 01.20.26; Financial Times, 01.20.26)
• Russia’s Rubikon drone unit is increasingly using long‑range FPV “mothership” drones—reportedly equipped with Starlink—to hit high‑value Western systems deep in Ukrainian territory, publishing footage of strikes on a HIMARS near Novobakhmetieve and on what Russian bloggers claim was a Patriot launcher and radar near Kharkiv, underscoring Ukraine’s shortage of point‑defense against drones. (ISW, 01.20.26)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Colonel Pavlo Yelizarov, former commander of the National Guard’s Lasar drone unit, as deputy air force commander to lead development of interceptor drones, mobile fire groups, and other light air‑defense tools aimed at creating an “anti‑drone dome” over Ukraine. (ISW, 01.20.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• On Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Myrnohrad and Dorozhnyanka while Ukrainian armed forces cleared Sukhetske of Russian forces. (RM, 01.23.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said about 4,000 buildings in Kyiv remained without heating and nearly 60% of the capital was without power as temperatures fell to -20°C (-4°F) after days of Russian strikes on the grid. Mayor Vitali Klitschko warned some 5,600 apartment buildings had recently been without heat and around 600,000 residents have left the city of over 3 million this month. (Washington Post, 01.21.26; The Times, 01.21.26; MT/AFP, 01.21.26; Bloomberg, 01.21.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• On Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Fedorivka and Synelnykove. (RM, 01.23.25)
• Russian and Ukrainian officials said Ukrainian drones struck fuel terminals at Russia’s Black Sea port of Taman late Jan. 21, setting four tanks on fire, killing three port workers and injuring eight, in a retaliatory escalation of the energy war as both sides increasingly target each other’s oil and power infrastructure. (Bloomberg, 01.22.26)
• Ukrainian outlet Strana reports growing discussion in Kyiv about replacing armed forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi amid criticism of his “Soviet-style” leadership and high casualties, with particular media and political momentum behind 3rd Army Corps commander Andriy Biletsky, whose notional party is already polling above the 5% threshold. (Strana, 01.21.26)
• Ukraine’s General Staff reported 123 combat engagements by 16:00 on Jan. 22 across all 13 main sectors of the front, including an intense 56-assault push by Russian forces toward Pokrovsk and surrounding villages, as well as 20 attacks near Huliaipole. (Korrespondent.net, 01.22.26)
• Ukraine’s rates of Russian drone‑interception declined from 98% to about 80%, prompting Volodymyr Zelenskyy to shake up air-defense command and elevate Colonel Pavlo “Lazar” Yelizarov—a frontline drone commander whose 1,500‑strong “Lazar’s Group” is credited with destroying over $12 billion in Russian equipment—to help build a more decentralized, domestically produced interceptor system. (The Economist, 01.22.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• On Friday, Jan. 23, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced Anear Fyodorivka and Sinelnikovo (RM, 01.23.25)
• In the Porkovsk area Russia has deployed 200,000 troops. They have advanced 15 kilometers towards Pokrovsk since January 2025. (UK MOD X Account, 01.21.26)
• Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia launched 101 attack drones of various types, including about 60 Shaheds, between the evening of Jan. 22 and the morning of Jan. 23, of which Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 76, with at least 19 drones hitting 12 locations as the overnight barrage followed record-length missile‑drone attacks on Kryvyi Rih and fresh strikes on Dnipro and Odesa region. (RBC.ua, 01.23.26)
• Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck the Penzaneftezprodukt oil depot in Russia’s Penza region, causing a large fire at a facility used to supply the Russian army, and destroyed a Podlyot radar station near Frunze in occupied Crimea, as well as hitting concentrations of Russian troops in occupied Donetsk and Russia’s Belgorod region. (Korrespondent.net, 01.23.26)
• A Moscow military court, sentencing Ukrainian naval commander Andriy Shubin to life in prison in absentia, for the first time officially admitted that the Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva was sunk by two Ukrainian missiles, not by an accidental fire. (Moscow Times, 01.23.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• French President Emmanuel Macron told French troops at the Istres air base that France now provides roughly two‑thirds of Ukraine’s battlefield intelligence, claiming Paris has effectively replaced Washington in this role. Whereas “a year ago” Kyiv was “overwhelmingly dependent” on U.S. capabilities, Macron said, today about 66% of Ukraine’s intelligence support comes from France. (TASS, 01.15.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• Europe announced fresh support for Ukraine’s military and grid: Finland pledged a €98 million (≈$114 million) classified arms package; Czech President Petr Pavel promised combat aircraft capable of downing drones and possible early‑warning radars; the UK will open a defense‑startup business center in Kyiv and add £20 million (≈$26.7 million) for energy repairs; Italy will send about 80 industrial boilers worth €1.85 million; and Norway has earmarked $200 million for urgent energy restoration and gas purchases. (ISW, 01.16.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned at Davos that debate over President Trump’s designs on Greenland must not distract from Europe’s “No. 1 priority” of helping Ukraine defend against Russia, urging allies to step up air-defense supplies and defense production even as the EU pledges €90 billion (~$105 billion) for Kyiv and Russian forces reportedly lose about 1,000 soldiers a day. (New York Times, 01.21.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• Volodymyr Zelensky said that during the World Economic Forum in Davos he agreed with U.S. President Donald Trump on the supply of PAC‑3 missiles for Ukraine’s Patriot air-defense systems, without specifying the number of missiles, and noted this was the concrete goal of his trip alongside broader “global” discussions. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.23.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

• The European Union is slowly preparing a new round of sanctions on Russia, its 20th since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the goal of having the measures approved by all EU member states at the end of February to coincide with the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s attack on its neighbor. The idea is that the European Commission, which proposes new packages, will have its round of “confessionals” in which proposed new measures and potential “red lines” are discussed with member states as early as the upcoming weekend of Jan. 24-25. (RFE/RL, 01.20.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• Russia is putting mothballed planes back into service amid sanctions that have limited the country's ability to sustain its passenger fleet/ Izvestia reported on Jan. 19 that 12 aircraft will be “reactivated” by Russian airlines in 2026. Ten planes have already been sent to airlines. Around 75% of Russia’s commercial air fleet were built in the United States, EU, or Canada. (RFE/RL, 01.21.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• Bloomberg says Russia-linked ruble stablecoin A7A5, launched by Ilan Shor’s A7 and state lender Promsvyazbank, has processed over $100 billion in transactions and $17.3 billion in trading volume across about 250,000 on‑chain transfers by 41,300 accounts in under a year, but daily volume has fallen from $1.5 billion to roughly $500 million and no major new issuance has occurred since July, after EU sanctions in November 2025 effectively barred EU entities from dealing in the token and left it with “very little liquidity” into other crypto assets. (Bloomberg, 01.23.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, Jan. 17-19, 2026

• A high-level Ukrainian delegation led by presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov and including National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and ruling party leader Davyd Arakhamia were in the United States for another round of peace talks with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll. That fresh round of talks ended without announcing an agreement but discussions on a plan to end Russia's war on Ukraine were to resume at WEF in Davos (RFE/RL, 01.19.26, Washington Post, 01.17.26; ISW, 01.17.26. RFE/RL, 01.19.26, Moscow Times/AFP, 01.19.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

• On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the “understandings” reached in Anchorage during the Putin-Trump summit were proposed by the United States and accepted by Moscow. Sergey Lavrov reaffirmed Moscow’s maximalist war aims, rejecting the U.S.‑European‑Ukrainian peace plan, demanding control over all of “Novorossiya” beyond currently annexed areas, and ruling out any ceasefire while falsely claiming Ukraine had attacked Russia first. (ISW, 01.20.26, Washington Post, 01.23.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• It was announced on Jan. 21 that White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will fly to Moscow on Jan. 22 for talks with Vladimir Putin on Donald Trump’s proposed U.S.-Ukraine-EU 20‑point peace plan, in a visit requested by the Russian side. U.S. officials said Washington is close to agreement with Kyiv, which claims the plan is “90% done,” but has struggled to secure clear buy‑in from Putin, who demands formal recognition of Russian control over occupied Ukrainian territory, including all of Donetsk and parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. (Axios, 01.21.26; Meduza, 01.21.26, Bloomberg, 01.21.26)
  • Putin received a draft of the peace plan earlier this month via his aide Kirill Dmitriev that had been coordinated with Ukraine and European counterparts, according to people familiar with the matter. The documents were passed to Moscow informally for review, allowing Putin to prepare feedback and propose changes ahead of the visit by Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow to meet Putin. (Bloomberg, 01.21.26)
• Dmitry Medvedev on Jan. 21 repeated the line that Russia is merely “reclaiming its own lands” through sham referendums in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, underscoring that Moscow still insists on addressing alleged “root causes” such as supposed discrimination against Russian-speakers and the Russian Church, and flatly rejects any future security guarantees for Ukraine that involve foreign (NATO) troops—a core element of current U.S. proposals. (ISW, 01.21.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump held an unscheduled, hour‑long “very good” meeting on the sidelines of the Davos forum but signed no documents. Zelenskyy said framework papers on a 10‑year (potentially 15‑year) U.S. security guarantee and an $800 billion postwar “prosperity plan” are “almost ready” but not yet finalized, adding that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks will continue in the UAE after Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Witkoff, who met Ukraine’s team of Rustem Umerov, Kyrylo Budanov and Davyd Arakhamia in Davos, called the Russia‑Ukraine peace talks “in the final stage” with only one unresolved issue remaining. Asked later about Mr. Witkoff’s comment, Mr. Zelenskyy said it referred to control of territory in eastern Ukraine. (Istories, 01.22.26, RBC.ua, 01.22.26, Washington Post, 01.22.26, BNE Intelligence, 01.22.26, Ukrainska Pravda, 01.22.26, New York Times, 01.23.26)
  • After his talks with Zelenskyy, President Donald Trump said he believes both Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin now want to end the war, though he acknowledged “no changes” had specifically convinced him Putin’s stance had shifted. Trump said there were times in the past when “Putin didn’t want to make a deal” and times when “Zelenskyy didn’t want to make a deal,” but claimed that now “they both want to make a deal.” He insisted Putin would “make concessions” and reaffirmed his belief that the Russian leader wants peace and is ready to compromise, despite the Kremlin’s perceived inflexibility. Trump described his Thursday meeting with Zelenskyy as “good,” but remained vague on what concrete concessions Putin would need to offer. (Financial Times, 01.23.26,Washington Post, 01.23.26)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used his Davos speech to accuse Europe of being too timid and slow to use hard power, arguing Trump has “exposed Europe’s weakness,” as he urged EU leaders to seize Russian assets and tankers. (Axios, 01.22.26)
• Putin’s nearly four-hour Kremlin talks on Jan. 22 with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner left the “territorial issue” unresolved, with Moscow insisting on the “Anchorage understandings,”⁵—full control of all of Donetsk and a frozen front in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia—while Zelenskyy says the Donbas question will be central at U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi and that a separate U.S.-Ukraine security‑guarantees deal is already “ready for signing,” even as massive Russian strikes leave nearly 2,000 Kyiv apartment buildings without heat. Ushakov said: “The talks went on for approximately four hours and they were exceptionally in-depth, constructive, and, I should say, constituted an extremely frank and heart-to-heart conversation… agreement on the next step in this direction has been reached. There was an agreement to hold the first meeting of a trilateral working group on security matters as soon as today, this Friday, Jan. 23, in Abu Dhabi, with Russia, the United States and Ukraine… we have already formed our negotiating team on security matters, and it will be on its way to the Emirates in a matter of hours. The group includes senior officials from the Defense Ministry, led by Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff Admiral Kostyukov.” (Bloomberg, Kremlin.ru, 01.23.26, Axios, 01.23.26, Financial Times, 01.23.26)
  • After meeting Putin in Moscow on Jan. 22 Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner flew directly to Abu Dhabi for working‑group talks on “military‑to‑military” issues and postwar “prosperity.” (New York Times, 01.23.26)
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will send a full negotiating team to the trilateral talks with the U.S. and Russia in Abu Dhabi, including presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, deputy chief Serhiy Kyslytsia, ruling-party faction leader Davyd Arakhamia, and Armed Forces General Staff chief Andriy Hnatov, for two days of technical‑level discussions on security guarantees, a Donbas free‑economic zone, and the U.S. 20‑point peace plan. (RBC.ua, 01.22.26)
• Retired U.S. General Keith Kellogg predicted the war in Ukraine could end by August 24, 2026—if Ukraine survives the critical winter months of January–February—arguing that by spring Kyiv will have the advantage over a Russia that has failed to seize any major cities like Kyiv or Odesa and is measuring progress “in meters, not miles” after suffering heavy losses in elite units and senior officers. (RBC.ua, 01.22.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian negotiators opened trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 23 with the Donbas territorial question at the center, as the Kremlin reaffirmed its demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from all of Donetsk and Luhansk under the “Anchorage” formula while Volodymyr Zelenskyy floated a possible demilitarized or free‑economic zone there, insisted Russia must also compromise, and said a separate U.S.-Ukraine security‑guarantees agreement is already “ready for signing.” (RFE/RL, 01.23.26)
• In a voice note sent to reporters on Friday, Zelenskyy said the meeting in Abu Dhabi marked “a step forward. God willing, it may take various forms before the war ends, but it is a step—we are not standing still.” He added: “The issue of the Donbas is key” and that “the modalities—how the three sides see this [working out]—will be discussed in Abu Dhabi today and tomorrow.” (Financial Times, 01.23.26)
• Russia is demanding that Ukrainian forces withdraw from all of Donbas as a “key condition” ahead of the first trilateral talks with Ukraine and the U.S. in Abu Dhabi, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, while Kyiv expands its delegation headed by NSDC secretary Rustem Umerov and insists the territorial question will be central to the meeting. (RBC.ua, 01.23.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• NATO Air Command said Italian Eurofighter Typhoons based in Estonia scrambled on Jan. 16 to intercept a Russian Be‑200 amphibious aircraft approaching Baltic airspace, part of a growing pattern of Russian flights skirting or violating NATO airspace that ISW assesses are elements of Moscow’s “Phase Zero” campaign to probe defenses, unsettle Europe and shape conditions for any future confrontation. (ISW, 01.17.26)
• While global attention focused on the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro, six undersea data cables malfunctioned in the Baltic Sea around New Year’s, some likely struck by the cargo ship Fitburg. Coming after earlier incidents involving Eagle S and Newnew Polar Bear, the cluster suggests cable-cutting has resumed despite Baltic Sentry and Nordic Warden. NATO’s distraction and scant media coverage invite further sabotage. (Foreign Policy, 01.16.26)

Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026

• In Greenland and Denmark, hundreds in Nuuk and thousands more in Copenhagen marched in near‑freezing rain to protest Trump’s takeover threats, carrying signs reading “Greenland is not for sale” and “Hands Off.” A bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation led by Sen. Chris Coons sought to reassure allies that most Americans back NATO and respect Greenland’s self‑rule. Danish Arctic commander Maj. Gen. Søren Andersen told AP there are “no current security threats to Greenland,” no Chinese or Russian warships nearby, and that Denmark has invited the U.S. into upcoming Arctic Endurance exercises while insisting that no NATO ally should ever attack another. (Washington Post, 01.17.26)
• Former NATO secretary-general and ex-Danish prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen condemned President Trump’s threats to seize Greenland as “gangster” talk and a “weapon of mass distraction” from real threats like Russia’s war in Ukraine. (Financial Times, 01.17.26)
• The U.S. escalated its criticism of South Africa after naval exercises this week involving China and some of the BRICS member nations.” (Bloomberg, 01.17.26)

Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026

• ABC News foreign correspondent Nick Schifrin published what he says is the text of a Trump letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, linking Trump’s demand for “complete and total control of Greenland” to not receiving a Nobel Peace Prize. In the message, Trump claims NATO “should do something for the United States” and argues Denmark cannot protect Greenland from Russia or China. (X/@nickschifrin, 01.18.26)
• Latvia’s central bank governor Mārtiņš Kazāks warned Europe is “already at war” with Russia in non‑kinetic domains and must harden its financial system against further escalation. (Financial Times, 01.18.26)

Monday, Jan. 19, 2026

• U .S. President Donald Trump has invited Vladimir Putin to join a new “Board of Peace,” an international body Washington says will oversee Gaza’s reconstruction and other global crises, the Kremlin announced. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the proposal was delivered via diplomatic channels and is under review. Other invited leaders are said to include Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko, and Kazakhstan’s Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. (Financial Times, 01.19.26; Meduza, 01.19.26)
  • Vladimir Putin said Russia is willing to contribute $1 billion to President Trump’s “Board of Peace” for Gaza, but only if roughly $5 billion in Russian assets frozen in the United States are unfrozen and redirected, a proposal he plans to discuss in Moscow with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. (New York Times, 01.22.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told the World Economic Forum that Russia is “without question” a threat in the Arctic—albeit a “more prospective than actual” one for now—as he touted Canada’s year‑round air, sea, and land presence, expanded submarine and fighter fleets, and new over‑the‑horizon radar, while urging NATO allies to reinforce Arctic security and stand with Greenland and Denmark against great‑power pressure. (Bloomberg, 01.20.26)
• German Lt. Gen. Alexander Sollfrank warned that President Trump’s confrontation with Europe over seizing Greenland is eroding NATO cohesion and could tempt Russia to test the alliance with a limited attack on its eastern flank, even as Germany races to turn itself into a logistics hub capable of rushing nearly a million troops east “overnight” in a crisis. (Wall Street Journal, 01.20.26)
• The Pentagon plans to scale back U.S. involvement in nearly 30 NATO organizations, including Centers of Excellence and advisory groups on energy security, naval warfare, special operations, and intelligence, by quietly not replacing about 200 U.S. military personnel as their tours end (Washington Post, 01.20.26)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that Russia or China might “seize” Greenland if Washington fails to take control of the Danish territory, saying the Trump administration “knows” Moscow has no such plans and insisting Russia has “no involvement whatsoever” in any designs on the island. Lavrov added that Crimea is “no less important” for Russia’s security than Greenland is for the United States. (Meduza, 01.20.26; Bloomberg, 01.20.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• The U.S. has denounced a French push to hold a NATO-led military exercise in Greenland, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warning European nations against sending troops to the island as President Donald Trump threatens to seize it. (Bloomberg, 01.21.26)
• At the Davos forum, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Europe is “unequivocally” capable of defending itself militarily even without direct U.S. combat support, pointing to Finland’s long-standing preparation against potential Russian attack and its ability to repel an invasion on its own soil, while still relying on U.S. cooperation for high-end air capabilities. He argued that Russia is “locked into” its war on Ukraine because it is “too big to fail,” rejected claims that Ukraine is losing as part of a Russian narrative, and vowed that Helsinki will keep backing Kyiv and “put pressure on Russia,” urging audiences to “have faith, Ukraine is going to win this war.” (Wall Street Journal, 01.21.26(Financial Times live blog, 01.22.26)
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Davos forum that Ukraine is ready to help Europe “eliminate” Russian warships operating near Greenland—saying Ukrainian forces have the experience and weapons to ensure such vessels “can sink near Greenland just as near Crimea”—and accused European leaders of passivity on Iran and Belarus, urging them to seize Russian shadow fleet tankers like the U.S. and to move faster in holding Vladimir Putin personally accountable. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.22.26, Ukrainska Pravda, 01.22.26)
• The Kremlin is openly welcoming the Greenland-induced rift inside NATO, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov praising Trump’s bid to annex the island as an act that would secure him a place in “world history,” as Moscow watches U.S.-European tensions grow over the Arctic from the sidelines. (Wall Street Journal, 01.21.26)
• UK Defense Secretary John Healey warned in Copenhagen that despite tensions with the U.S. over Greenland, NATO’s “main adversary” remains Russia, citing intensified Russian attacks in Ukraine and expanded Arctic basing as reasons Europe must both keep supporting Kyiv militarily and strengthen deterrence in the High North. (European Pravda, 01.21.26)
• German police in Berlin detained a 56‑year‑old dual German‑Ukrainian citizen, identified as businesswoman Ilona V., on suspicion of spying for Russian intelligence by collecting information on participants in high‑level political events, German defense‑industry sites, drone tests and planned UAV deliveries to Ukraine, allegedly passing it to a GRU officer working under diplomatic cover at Russia’s embassy. She reportedly sat on the board of a Berlin association that cultivated ties with senior SPD and CDU politicians and big business; searches were also conducted at the homes of two former Defense Ministry officials linked to her, who remain at liberty. (Meduza, 01.21.26)
  • Germany expelled a Russian diplomat identified in media as a GRU officer and alleged handler of arrested German‑Ukrainian businesswoman Ilona W., accused of using Defense Ministry contacts to gather information on Ukraine-related arms, drone tests, and defense industry sites and to smuggle the officer into Berlin political events under a false identity, with Moscow vowing retaliatory measures. (Moscow Times, 01.23.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• President Trump said he’d reached a “framework” deal with NATO chief Mark Rutte on Greenland, dropping threatened tariffs on European allies and pledging not to use force. According to reports, NATO officials are exploring options for expanded U.S. bases, missiles, mining rights, and a NATO multinational command under U.S. lead, updating the 1951 defense treaty to block Russian and Chinese influence, while Denmark insists sovereignty is non‑negotiable and Greenlandic leaders reject decisions made without them. (New York Times, 01.22.26, RFE/RL, 01.22.26, Bloomberg, 01.22.26,Bloomberg, 01.22.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• The U.S. is pushing to rewrite its 1951 defense treaty with Denmark to remove consultation requirements and give Washington essentially unlimited, permanent military access in Greenland—up to “all military access that we want,” as Trump put it—as part of a broader framework that would add U.S. missiles, mining rights to keep China out, and a stronger NATO Arctic presence in exchange for Trump dropping tariff threats on Europe. (Bloomberg, 01.23.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Drones have emerged as the most decisive and most rapidly evolving weapon in the attritional war between Russia and Ukraine, accounting for three-quarters of recent casualties, Both Russia and Ukraine have moved to build up their own production capability, mostly utilizing Chinese componentry, according to Financial Times. Ukraine remains dependent on China for about 85 per cent of the components that go into simple first-person view drones according to FT. As for Russia’s use od Chinese parts, an Analysis of downed Russian drones by the Center for Defense Reforms, a Kyiv think-tank, showed that Chinese parts narrowly edged out US parts in 2025, with Swiss components coming in third. (FT. 01.21.26)
• Russian auto industry analysts said more than 600 Chinese-brand car showrooms in Russia closed in 2025—643 in total, 1.4 times more than in 2024—as the number of Chinese sales points fell 7% and some dealers abandoned loss‑making franchises or switched to locally assembled “Chinese” marques after an overheated expansion left the market oversaturated. (Meduza, 01.21.26)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia offered to keep observing New START warhead and launcher limits for one year after the treaty’s Feb. 5 expiry if the U.S. reciprocated, but Trump refused, and he accused Washington of instead pursuing strategic superiority by deploying Typhon intermediate‑range missiles in Japan, the Philippines and potentially Germany, expanding nuclear deployments in Europe, weaponizing space and building its “Golden Dome” missile defense, according to Russian Foreign Ministry. (RM, 01.20.26)
• The world has gone a record eight years, four months and 11 days without a nuclear test since North Korea’s last detonation in 2017. (Arms Control Today, 01.21.26.)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Syria’s transitional government is considering asking Russia to vacate one of its three bases in the country—the Qamishli airfield in Hasakah province—with talks potentially starting after control of the province is transferred from Kurdish forces to Damascus, according to sources cited by Kommersant. (Kommersant, 01.21.26)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Ukraine’s new defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov said Kyiv will let allied governments and companies train AI models on a “data room” of real frontline combat information—including massive drone footage archives—in partnership with Palantir via the Brave1 platform, aiming to accelerate autonomous air‑defense and other systems while deepening tech collaboration with Western think-tanks and militaries. (Financial Times, 01.21.26)
• Russia is rushing to field a new tactical situational-awareness system called Svod, which will fuse satellite, drone, electronic, engineering, and open‑source intelligence into a single battlefield picture with AI‑assisted target detection and operational modeling, initially to be combat‑tested at battalion level in the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies of the Central Grouping of Forces from April–May 2026. (ISW, 01.22.26)
• President Trump’s nominee to lead the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command, Lt. Gen. Joshua M. Rudd, vowed at his confirmation hearing to safeguard U.S. elections from foreign interference, including Russian influence operations, even as the administration has dismantled most federal election cyberdefenses and fired his predecessor, Gen. Timothy D. Haugh, a key figure in countering Moscow’s 2016 meddling that Mr. Trump dismisses as the “Russia hoax.” Rudd faced bipartisan frustration for evasive answers on cyber deterrence and the scope of his role in confronting foreign adversaries, while fellow nominee Lt. Gen. Francis L. Donovan declined to clarify his stance on aggressive anti‑drug operations in the Caribbean following the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s leader. (New York Times, 01.15.26)

Energy exports:

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• Citing Bloomberg and Russian Finance Ministry data, ISW notes Russia’s oil and gas tax revenues fell 24% in 2025 to 8.48 trillion rubles (_{$108 billion, the lowest in five years, and are expected to drop another} 30% share of the budget in 2026. With hydrocarbons now providing only about 30% of federal income and sanctions and a stronger ruble squeezing export margins, Moscow has spent more than half its sovereign wealth fund and even sold gold in late 2025 to plug a budget gap of roughly $50 billion, increasingly relying on expensive borrowing to sustain war spending. (ISW, 01.16.26)
• Bloomberg says Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar has tapped former Shell global retail chief István Kapitány as his chief economic adviser ahead of the 12 April election, promising to shift Hungary away from a low‑value assembly‑plant model and diversify energy supplies now 87% dependent on Russian oil and gas and “100%” on Rosatom for nuclear. (Bloomberg, 01.17.26)

Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026

• German federal police recently turned back the unregistered tanker Arcusat/Tavian from German waters—a first for a shadow‑fleet ship—while Italy’s Guardia di Finanza seized a Tuvalu‑flagged vessel likely to be the Turkish‑owned Hizer Reis, carrying 33,000 tons of Russian ferrous metal from Novorossiysk; dozens of sanctioned tankers linked to Russia, Iran and Venezuela have reflagged to Russia in recent months. (ISW, 01.17.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

• Russia’s oil exports fell to the lowest since August, with Moscow facing mounting difficulties delivering barrels to key buyer India. Imports into the south Asian country fell to a more-than-three-year low in December. Russia shipped 3.16 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 18, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down by about 700,000 barrels a day from a pre-Christmas peak and 260,000 barrels a day lower than the period to Jan. 11. (Bloomberg, 01.20.26)
• Hungary’s MOL Group signed a binding heads of agreement with Russia’s Gazprom Neft to buy its 56.15% stake in Serbia’s sanctioned oil company NIS, a deal that would expand MOL’s regional footprint and slightly raise Serbia’s own shareholding but still requires approval from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control by late March. (Washington Post/AP, 01.20.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• U.S. Southern Command reported seizing the tanker Sagitta off Venezuela as part of Trump’s Caribbean “quarantine” on sanctioned vessels; the ship was sanctioned by OFAC in January 2025 for transporting Russian crude, has sailed under Panamanian and Guyanese flags, supplied Russian oil to China and India, and has not broadcast an AIS signal since May 11, 2025 near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Starboard Maritime Intelligence data. (ISW, 01.21.26)
• Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said the United States has still not honored what Moscow describes as a high‑level decision to free two Russian citizens from the crew of the tanker “Bella 1” (“Marinera”), seized by U.S. forces between Iceland and the British Isles on Jan. 7 after an earlier failed interception in the Caribbean over alleged sanctions‑busting oil shipments to Venezuela. (Meduza, 01.20.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• France’s navy, with allied support, boarded and diverted the sanctioned, Russia‑linked tanker Grinch in the Alboran Sea as part of a global crackdown on the “shadow fleet,” with President Emmanuel Macron vowing to enforce sanctions rigorously as more than 600 Russia‑related tankers have now been blacklisted by the EU, UK, and U.S. and a lower $44.10/barrel price cap on refined products looms from Feb. 1. (Bloomberg, 01.22.26)
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged European governments at Davos to “fully stop” Russian oil flows by intercepting and confiscating shadow‑fleet tankers, asking why Europe “avoids measures that determine our future” while President Trump is seizing such ships and arguing that selling the oil for Europe’s benefit would both cut Kremlin war funding and protect Europeans. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.22.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• An LR2 tanker named Progress, sanctioned by the EU and UK for hauling Russian crude, is drifting in the Mediterranean off Algeria with its status marked “Not under command” after abruptly leaving shipping lanes while carrying about 730,000 barrels of Urals oil toward the Suez Canal, highlighting mounting troubles for Russia’s shadow fleet as more than 600 such vessels face Western scrutiny and blacklisting. (Bloomberg, 01.23.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• In UAE Russia would hold parallel talks with the U.S. on economic co-operation led by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Kremlin’s sovereign wealth fund, Ushakov said. (Financial Times, 01.23.26)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Monday, Jan. 19, 2026

• A Russian court in Sochi sentenced U.S. Navy veteran Chuck Zimmerman, 58, to five years in prison for illegally transporting weapons after finding a firearm on his yacht during a June inspection, a case his family denounces as a politically driven “set‑up” to create leverage for a future prisoner swap. Zimmerman, described by supporters as a father of two and an electrician, is the latest American to be jailed in Russia amid a broader pattern of high‑profile detentions. (Washington Post/AP, 01.19.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hailed President Donald Trump’s Ukraine diplomacy as the only Western initiative that “understands” and addresses Russia’s “legitimate interests” and the “root causes” of the war, saying Moscow supports this approach while not expecting “one hundred percent alignment” even with the United States as a fellow nuclear power, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. (RM, 01.20.26)
  • Lavrov recounted a February 2025 meeting in Riyadh where U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, invoking The Godfather, told him Trump’s foreign policy is guided by national interests and “common sense” that recognize other major powers’ interests and seek cooperation where they align while avoiding escalation to military confrontation where they do not, a philosophy Lavrov said he “fully” shares, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. (RM,01.20.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov said on Putin’s Jan. 22 talks with Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Josh Gruenbaum: I would like to point out that the further development of bilateral Russian-U.S. relations was discussed at the conceptual level, considering the huge potential of our countries for cooperation in various spheres. American representatives are already considering certain plans that could be implemented after the settlement of the Ukraine crisis. (Kremlin.ru, 01.23.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• A U.S. court sentenced dual U.S.-Russian citizen Sergei Nechayev, 49, to 41 months in prison plus three years of supervised release after he pleaded guilty to trying to smuggle two vintage Cessna light aircraft worth about $170,000 to Russia between September 2022 and March 2023 using falsified export documents and fictitious end users in Turkey and Armenia, in violation of post‑invasion U.S. export controls. (MT/AFP, 01.23.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Monday, Jan. 19, 2026

• The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026 GDP growth to 0.8%, down from 1%, leaving Russia trailing both the projected 4.2% average for emerging markets and 1.8% for advanced economies. The IMF kept its 2025 estimate at 0.6% after Russia’s defense‑driven 4.3% expansion in 2024, and sees 1% growth in 2027. Russia’s Central Bank projects 0.5–1.5% growth in 2026. (MT/AFP, 01.19.26)
• Russia reined in spending in December as the government moved to keep the fiscal gap within its most recently revised target amid a slump in oil revenue. Budget spending in December fell by 19% from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data. Full-year spending rose by 7%, markedly slower than the 24% increase a year earlier. As a result, Russia managed to stay within its latest budget deficit target of 2.6% of the gross domestic product, with the shortfall totaling 5.6 trillion rubles ($71.6 billion). The original plan for a deficit of 0.5% of GDP was derailed by the weakest oil and gas revenue in five years. (Bloomberg, 01.19.26)
• Russia’s internet regulator Roskomnadzor blocked access to 1.289 million web pages in 2025, a 59% rise from 2024, as authorities broadened monitoring and tightened content rules. Blocks on tools to bypass restrictions jumped 1,235% to over 93,000 items, LGBTQ+ content 269% to 170,300, and child pornography 131% to 155,600, aided by expanded definitions of illegality and advanced analytical tools. (MT/AFP, 01.19.26)
• The Kremlin has reportedly tapped Dmitry Medvedev, Sergei Lavrov, youth‑army officer Vladislav Golovin, COVID‑era “Hero of Labor” doctor Maryana Lysenko and Kremlin‑co‑opted milblogger Yevgeny Poddubny as the top five United Russia candidates for the September 2026 State Duma elections, using high‑profile loyalists who are expected to keep their current posts while fronting President Vladimir Putin’s domestic agenda. (ISW, 01.19.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

• Russia has reaped a windfall from a surge in gold prices since the start of its war in Ukraine, generating gains on a scale comparable to the sovereign reserves frozen in Europe over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion. The value of the Bank of Russia’s gold holdings has increased by more than $216 billion since February 2022, according to Bloomberg calculations. (Bloomberg, 01.20.26)
• Russia’s National Wellbeing Fund grew for the first time since the full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, with liquid assets rising 7% in 2025 to 4.1 trillion rubles ($52.6 billion) as the Kremlin slowed drawdowns of its rainy‑day reserves even while covering a record 5.6‑trillion‑ruble budget deficit entirely through new borrowing. The fund’s readily available assets remain almost 60% below pre‑war levels amid slumping Urals crude prices around $34 a barrel and tighter U.S. sanctions, and Finance Ministry forecasts show continued use of reserves until at least 2027, when inflows are expected to resume mainly via a lower oil‑price threshold in Russia’s budget rule. (Bloomberg, 01.20.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• Russia is struggling to turn a record 3.12 trillion rubles in confiscated assets into budget revenue, as failed auctions of major properties like Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport—burdened by debt, legal questions, and unattractive pricing—highlight how wartime asset grabs both deter potential buyers and complicate the Kremlin’s effort to plug its growing fiscal hole. (Bloomberg, 01.21.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• Meduza reports that Dmitry Medvedev, long reduced to a hawkish online “troll” despite his formal roles as Security Council deputy chair and United Russia leader, is actively lobbying to head United Russia’s federal list in the September 2026 Duma elections to “reintroduce” himself as a top national figure, though Kremlin insiders say his polarizing, explicitly pro‑war image (with roughly 42.5% trust vs. 42.6% distrust in one VTsIOM poll and just 4% spontaneous trust in a Levada survey) worries key power brokers who fear both weaker electoral results and that he could gain an early edge in any future succession race. (Meduza, 01.22.26)
• Official data show Russia issued about 240,000 work permits to foreign nationals in 2025—up 42% year-on-year and the highest since at least 2017—including sharp increases for workers from India (56,500, up from 36,200), Bangladesh (9,300, up from 2,800), Turkmenistan (25,000) and others, as Moscow tries to fill an estimated 2.6 million‑worker labor shortfall driven largely by the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 01.22.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• Russia’s total fertility rate fell for the 10th consecutive year in 2025 to 1.374 children per woman (down from 1.4 in 2024), its lowest level since 2006, with births in 2024 dropping to about 1.222 million—a post‑1999 low (Korrespondent.net, 01.23.26)
• A January 2026 Levada Center poll found that about 64% of Russians say they are in a “normal, even” emotional state, 20% report mainly negative emotions (tension, irritation, fear, melancholy), and 16% describe their mood as excellent. (Levada Center, 01.23.26)

Defense and aerospace:

Monday, Jan. 19, 2026

• Russian forces have begun testing the Malvina‑M unmanned ground vehicle mounting 220mm thermobaric launch rails from the TOS‑1A system, an adaptation that could let troops fire devastating “vacuum bombs” closer to the front while reducing the vulnerability of traditional heavy thermobaric launchers to Ukrainian drones. (ISW, 01.19.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• Meduza reports that as Russia’s domestic enlistment falls after four years of war, the Kremlin is aggressively recruiting abroad—with at least 20,000 third‑country nationals estimated to have joined, including 1,436 identified fighters from 36 African countries and 18,000 foreign fighters overall tracked by Ukraine—lured mainly by money and fast‑track citizenship, given as little as 10 days–3 months of training, and often used as “disposable soldiers” in “meat assaults,” while recruitment ads targeting foreigners on VK grew sevenfold in mid‑2025 and Kyiv has identified 150+ new recruits from 25 countries in a single recent month. (Meduza, 01.22.26)
• Russia’s General Staff is reportedly creating a massive 50th Unmanned Systems Brigade of the Supreme Command, built around the Grom‑Kaskad unit and projected to reach about 7,000 personnel by December 2026, combining UGVs, USVs, and a wide range of UAVs (including Lancet, Geran, fiber‑optic and interceptor drones) under a major general directly subordinated to the General Staff’s Unmanned Systems Forces. (ISW, 01.22.26)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov fired five deputy defense ministers on Jan. 22—Anatoliy Klochko, Oleksandr Kozenko, Mykola Shevtsov, Volodymyr Zaverukha, and Hanna Hvozdiar—while noting that some will remain in the ministry as advisers or project-office heads as part of his ongoing shake-up of the MoD. (ISW, 01.22.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• Russia has postponed the first launch of its Starlink-rival low‑orbit internet constellation Rassvet: a batch of 16 satellites that was meant to go up in late 2025 has slipped to 2026, despite official claims that all 16 were produced last year. The state‑funded project has 102.8 billion rubles (~$1.3 billion) in federal money plus a planned 329 billion rubles (~$4.3 billion) from private firm Bureau 1440 through 2030, aims for 900+ satellites by 2035, but has only six test satellites in orbit so far versus 7,000+ already deployed by SpaceX’s Starlink. (Moscow Times, 01.23.26)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• A military court in Moscow on Wednesday sentenced an Uzbek man to life in prison after he was found guilty of assassinating the head of the Russian army’s chemical weapons unit. Akhmadzhon Kurbonov earlier admitted to killing Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who headed the military’s radiological, chemical and biological defense forces, and his assistant in December 2024 (MT/AFP, 01.21.26)
• A Moscow military court on Tuesday sentenced two men to 24 and 26 years in prison after they were found guilty of trying to assassinate a former Ukrainian intelligence officer in a bomb attack. Vasily Prozorov, a former employee of Ukraine’s SBU security service, was injured in April 2024 after an explosive device placed under his SUV in Moscow went off.. (MT/AFP, 01.20.26)
• Russian security agents in Stavropol killed a 43‑year‑old Kislovodsk resident during a nighttime forest “detention” they say involved a shootout over an alleged plot, ordered by Ukrainian intelligence, to bomb a military vehicle—a case that brings to at least 76 the number of people the FSB has reported killing during arrests since the start of the full‑scale war. The man was also accused of past drug trafficking and of having earlier stashed the explosive device later seized from an 18‑year‑old student charged in December 2025 with attempting to blow up a soldier’s car in Stavropol. (Vazhnye istorii, 01.20.26)
• Meduza, citing investigative outlet Agentstvo, says Russian security services have arrested Mikhail Shcherbak, director of capital construction at Rosatom’s Atomstroyexport, on charges of financing the Ukrainian military. Atomstroyexport manages Rosatom’s engineering division, which gets about 80% of its revenue from building large nuclear plants abroad, including projects in India and Turkey. Rosatom confirmed the detention and said it is cooperating with investigators. (Meduza, 01.17.26)
• Russian man who holds Irish citizenship has been held in pre-trial detention in the Ural Mountains city of Chelyabinsk on charges including “justifying” terrorism since August 2025, Irish media reported this week. Dmitry Simbayev, who has lived and worked in County Galway in western Ireland for more than two decades, was traveling with his Russian passport to Chelyabinsk when local law enforcement authorities detained him on Aug. 14 (MT/AFP, 01.20.26)
• Record snowfall on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula has left parts of Petropavlovsk‑Kamchatsky “completely cut off,” with snowdrifts up to 1.7–2.5 meters blocking roads, trapping elderly residents, disrupting food deliveries and emergency services, and prompting a local state of emergency and appeals to Moscow, which is now airlifting heavy snow‑removal equipment into the region. (MT/AFP, 01.22.26)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

• Danish authorities have threatened to seize the property of the Russian Embassy in Copenhagen, Russia’s Ambassador to Denmark told state media on Tuesday. “Copenhagen’s obsessive drive for confrontation with Moscow… makes it impossible for us to maintain normal relations with Denmark,” Ambassador Vladimir Barbin was quoted as saying by the state-run news agency TASS. (MT/AFP, 01.20.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• French prosecutors have seized more than €100 million in assets belonging to Gazprombank chief Andrey Akimov and his deputy Alexey Matveev, including four villas and land on the Caribbean luxury island of Saint Barthélemy tied to suspected financial and tax crimes, after investigations by France’s anti-fraud, organized crime, and financial prosecution offices. (Istories, 01.21.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• Russian diplomats, via Vatican mediation and Cardinal Pietro Parolin, offered Nicolás Maduro asylum and security guarantees in Russia ahead of the Jan. 3 U.S. raid that captured him, but the plan collapsed when Maduro demanded sweeping immunity and control over assets, leading to a swift U.S. operation that exposed serious weaknesses in Venezuela’s Russian‑supplied S‑300 and Buk‑M2 air defenses. (BNE Intelligence, 01.22.26).

Ukraine:

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

• Ukraine’s SBU security service detained the first deputy head of a Kyiv district state administration on suspicion of running a draft‑dodging scheme, allegedly taking $15,000–$20,000 per client to use contacts in the local enlistment office to “assign” men to military units and then have them declared unfit for service on the basis of falsified medical diagnoses. (Strana.ua, 01.21.26)
• Ukrainian poultry giant MHP has launched the country’s first post‑invasion corporate bond, a $450 million issue maturing in 2029 at about 11% yield to refinance $550 million of debt falling due this year, underscoring how Ukrainian companies face mounting repayment pressures amid war damage, infrastructure attacks, and stalled peace talks. (Financial Times, 01.21.26)
• Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities accused a former senior aide in President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's office on Wednesday of helping embezzle more than $3 million through a green energy scheme. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine said it had identified nine suspects who had claimed government payments for solar power produced in the now-occupied parts of the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region. They include an ex-deputy head of Zelenskiy's office, NABU said without naming them. Ukrainian authorities are not allowed to disclose the identity of suspects. (Reuters, 01.21.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau said it uncovered a 2023 cigarette-smuggling scheme involving senior State Border Guard Service officials, including ex-chief Serhiy Deineko, who allegedly took at least €204,000 in bribes for letting 68 cars (about €3,000 each) cross into the EU using Czech- and Austrian-registered vehicles with fake “diplomatic-style” plates and relatives of Ukrainian diplomats as passengers to avoid inspection. (RBC.ua, 01.22.26)
• Ukrainian investigators from NABU and the Specialized Anti‑Corruption Prosecutor’s Office carried out searches at the home of former State Border Guard Service chief Serhiy Deineko in a case involving alleged illicit benefits tied to cigarette smuggling, weeks after President Zelenskyy dismissed him from his post on Jan. 4. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.22.26)

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• Ukraine recorded 485,300 deaths and only 168,800 births in 2025—roughly three deaths for every birth—with the highest death tolls in Dnipropetrovsk (52,600), Kyiv (36,300), Kharkiv (34,700), Lviv (31,500), and Odesa (31,300) regions, underscoring a deepening demographic crisis despite a slight 2% year‑on‑year drop in overall mortality. (Korrespondent.net, 01.23.26)
• Ukrainian anti-corruption court officials said a full 33 million hryvnia (~€650,000) bail has been posted for Batkivshchyna leader Yulia Tymoshenko, who is accused of bribing MPs for votes and faces up to 10 years in prison under Part 4 of Article 369; investigative outlet Skhemy reports the sum was covered by 10 people in tranches from 180,000 to 8 million hryvnias, including 5 million from party MP and major sponsor Kostiantyn Bondarev. (Meduza, 01.23.26)
• Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigations said it broke up a scheme at a Rivne-region basic training center in which an instructor and accomplices allegedly charged recently mobilized soldiers about $3,000 each to “extract” them from the training ground and evade further service, using fake passes and forged high-level orders; the instructor was caught taking a $1,000 advance and is now jailed without bail on desertion‑organization charges. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.23.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026

• Freed Belarusian opposition leader Maria Kalesnikava, jailed for five years after the 2020 protests and spending almost half that time in solitary, urges Europe to re-engage Lukashenko’s regime or risk pushing Minsk further towards Russia. Following a U.S.‑led push that freed her and more than 100 others while about 1,000 political prisoners remain, she backs conditional sanctions relief for humanitarian steps. (Financial Times, 01.18.26)

Monday, Jan. 19, 2026

• Moldova has formally begun the process of quitting the Russia‑led Commonwealth of Independent States, with foreign minister Mihai Popșoi announcing the government is denouncing the CIS Charter and the 1991–1993 founding agreements and aims to complete the procedure by mid‑February before sending it to parliament for approval. The move accelerates Chișinău’s drift away from Moscow’s orbit and aligns with its pro‑EU course amid heightened regional tensions over Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine. (Meduza, 01.19.26)

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

• Moldova’s Foreign Ministry condemned the discovery of a Russian drone with explosives on its territory as a “gross violation” of national sovereignty and another spillover risk from Moscow’s war against Ukraine, following an earlier incident on Jan. 17 when a roughly 2.5‑meter unmanned aircraft washed up on a Moldovan lakeshore. (Korrespondent.net, 01.22.26)
• Russia’s FSB said it arrested a Russian citizen in Moscow on charges of secretly cooperating with Moldova’s SIS intelligence service to collect information on opposition figures, their funding, and FSB personnel data—a crime punishable by up to eight years in prison—allegations flatly denied by Moldova’s authorities and President Maia Sandu as political manipulation. (MT/AFP, 01.22.26)
• Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told Bloomberg in Davos that Alexander Lukashenko “can’t be trusted” and has “nothing to contribute” to Trump’s new Board of Peace, warning that sanctions‑for‑prisoner‑swaps risk turning repression into an “endless source of political income” for Minsk unless U.S. steps are tightly coordinated with tougher EU sanctions aimed at systemic democratic change. (Bloomberg, 01.22.26)

Useful data

While back in 2022 supporters of sending troops to Ukraine outnumbered opponents of doing so in such countries as Sweden, Portugal, and Poland, no country polled in 2025 had more proponents of sending troops to Ukraine than opponents.

Support for National Troops Fighting in Ukraine (Percent), ECFR, 2022 and 2025

Americans’ support for sending U.S. troops to Ukraine, Gallup, 2002–2025.

Quotable and notable:

• Russia expert Fiona Hill, chancellor of Durham University in England and Russia adviser during Trump’s first term, said in a recent podcast that Putin “is not really thinking of a period when peace breaks out. He’s become a wartime president, and I think he feels that he can keep a wartime economy ticking along for quite some time and maybe put off, then, the kinds of problems that he will inevitably face.” “The one thing that Putin clearly doesn’t care about is human capital,” said Hill in the podcast, “and this is why I think President Trump just doesn’t get Putin at all. He cannot understand why you would slaughter all of these people that you actually need to make your economy work.” (Washington Post, 01.23.26)
• During his remarks at a WEF panel in Davos, Harvard Professor Graham Allison used the Thucydides Trap framework to describe the structural reality of the past nine years: as China rises and the U.S. tries to maintain its primacy. In his remarks he referred to Russia as “an extremely relevant power.” (Geopolitechs, 01.22.26)
• Belfer Center Director Meghan O'Sullivan said in her remarks at WEF: “I would say there's no question that the intensified to political competition between great powers is playing out in more competition for energy resources. Particularly as the energy system becomes more complex” (WEF, 01.20.26).

Footnotes

1. The negotiations in Abu Dabi, which began on Jan. 24 and which constitute the first trilateral meetings involving Ukrainian and Russian envoys and U.S. mediators since Russia’s fall-fledged invasion of Ukraine are to continue on Jan. 24.
2. The following calculations were used to arrive at this estimate: If Russia controlled 20% of Ukraine’s territory and that equals 45,689 square miles as of January 2026, then the 80% of Ukraine that Kyiv presently controls equals 182,756 square miles. If so, then losing the aforementioned 2,187 square miles would amount to loss of about 1.2% of Ukrainian territory Kyiv controlled as of Jan. 2026.
3. Russia’s international reserves reached $755 billion at the end of last year, including $326.5 billion held in gold, according to central bank data published on Friday. Gold prices have risen by more than 8% since then, surpassing $4,700 per ounce, according to Bloomberg.
4. Sources used: ISW, 01.16.26, Vazhnye istorii, 01.19.26, Bloomberg, 01.20.26.

5. A source close to the Kremlin told Reuters that Moscow interprets the so‑called “Anchorage formula”—which it says was agreed by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at their August 2025 summit—as requiring Russian control over all of Donbas and freezing current front lines elsewhere in eastern and southern Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s position is “well known:” Ukraine’s Armed Forces “must leave the territory of Donbas and be withdrawn from there,” calling this a “very important condition” for any talks to end the war. He confirmed that this withdrawal demand remains central to Moscow’s terms under the Anchorage framework, while refusing to spell out all its details. Peskov added that “other conditions” also remain on the negotiating agenda, signaling further unresolved disputes even if the Donbas question is treated by Russia as the core prerequisite for a political settlement. (Gazeta.ru, CBS News, 01.23.26)

6.  ECFR was asked for full data on all countries from their 2022 Policy Brief.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI agents were used in production of this digest.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, centre, talks to the media at the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)