This week’s highlights:

• Thirteen Russian nationals, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, and three Russian organizations were charged by the special counsel investigating Russia’s 2016 election interference with illegally using social media platforms to sow political discord.
• More funds for the European Deterrence Initiative, as requested in Trump’s fiscal year 2019 budget, will send additional U.S. combat equipment to places like Poland and Estonia. An U.S. additional rotational presence in Europe would be episodic and not always predictable.
• $200 million in the U.S. fiscal year 2019 defense budget will go toward advising, training and equipping the Ukrainian military.
• According to a former Russian Duma deputy, Putin pushed for the seizure of Crimea in 2014 despite misgivings from many Russian officials.
• Some Russian officials express as much concern about limiting Iranian investments in Syria as they do about blocking potential Western re-engagement.
• Russian Eurobonds may see more than $2 billion of inflows if the nation wins back an investment-grade credit score this month. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The U.S. president's fiscal year 2019 spending plan, released Feb. 12, seeks $30.6 billion for the Energy Department, a $2.6 billion increase over its requested budget for the 2018 fiscal year. About $1.1 billion of the increase would go to the National Nuclear Security Administration. (The Santa Fe New Mexican, 02.12.18)
• New facts suggest a ruthenium leak charted this autumn over Europe did, in fact, arise from a filtration error at the Mayak Chemical Combine in Russia’s southern Ural Mountains, which Moscow has repeatedly denied. A new report reveals that the error likely occurred while Mayak was making a radioactive capsule of cerium 144 for use in an experiment by an Italian laboratory. (Bellona, 02.15.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• In a Feb. 12 phone call, U.S. President Donald Trump told Russian President Vladimir Putin that more needs to be done to scrap Pyongyang’s nuclear program. “President Trump reiterated the importance of taking further steps to ensure the denuclearization of North Korea,” the White House said in a statement. Trump and Putin also discussed some aspects of the Mideast peace process ahead of Putin’s meeting with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in Moscow. The White House said Trump repeated his belief that it is time to work toward a lasting peace agreement. Putin then passed greetings from Trump to Abbas, who responded that he doesn’t want to cooperate with Washington following its decision to recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. Trump also offered his condolences to Putin for the plane crash outside Moscow that killed 71 people. (Reuters, 02.12.18, AP, 02.12.18, AP, 02.12.18)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley says it is "time for the Security Council to act" following the release of a U.N. report finding that Iran violated a U.N. arms embargo on Yemen's Huthi rebels. (RFE/RL, 02.16.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. President Donald Trump is asking for $716 billion in defense spending in 2019, a 13 percent increase over 2017, as part of a costly effort to retool the U.S. military to deter and, if necessary, fight major powers such as Russia and China. To put America’s eastern European allies at ease and deter Russia, Trump’s budget request includes billions for the European Deterrence Initiative that will send additional U.S. combat equipment to places such as Poland and Estonia. The initiative asks for $6.5 billion in the request. The Pentagon requested $4.8 billion in the 2018 fiscal year and received $3.4 billion the year before that. Now that funding is focused on deterrence of Russian aggression rather than reassuring allies, more will be injected into munitions, improving tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles and priming the pump for a larger rotational presence in Europe that would be episodic and not always predictable. (The Washington Post, 02.12.18, Defense News, 02.12.18)
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the initial batch of national military expenditure plans demanded by the U.S. shows progress toward a goal for alliance members to spend at least two percent of GDP on defense by 2024. That target will be met by eight NATO countries this year, up from three in 2014, and by at least 15 alliance members by 2024. (Bloomberg, 02.15.18)
• NATO will locate two new military headquarters in the U.S. and Germany, marking the first upgrade of the alliance’s command structure since the end of the Cold War. The U.S. will host a planned NATO command center focused on maritime security in the Atlantic, while Germany will be the site of a center responsible for troop movements in Europe. (Bloomberg, 01.13.18)
• The battered relations between Russia and the West will once again be at the forefront as senior officials gather for the Munich Security Conference. Conference Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger warns that the world has moved toward "the brink of a significant conflict." Attendees include Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, British Prime Minister Theresa May, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, White House national security adviser H.R. McMaster, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan will also attend and participate in a nuclear security and arms control panel discussion. (RFE/RL, 02.16.18, Russia Matters, 01.16.18)
• Russia will compete with the United States most aggressively in Europe and Eurasia, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Moscow will employ a variety of aggressive tactics to bolster its standing as a great power, secure a “sphere of influence” in the post-Soviet space, weaken the United States and undermine Euro-Atlantic unity. However, Moscow will also seek cooperation with the United States in areas that advance its interests, according to the report. (DNI, 02.13.18) 
• Acknowledging that ties with Turkey are at a “crisis point,” U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson pledged cooperation with Ankara, but also issued new warnings over the erosion of democratic norms and the country’s plan to sign the S-400 deal with Russia. (Bloomberg, 02.16.18)
• Estonia and Russia have swapped two convicted spies after both men received presidential pardons. Estonian officials on Feb. 10 said Estonian businessman Raivo Susi was exchanged for Russian national Artyom Zinchenko at the Koidula border post in southeast Estonia. (RFE/RL, 02.11.18)
• The Moldovan Defense Ministry says its troops will participate in military exercises in Romania along with troops from the United States, Georgia, Bulgaria, Ukraine and the host country. (RFE/RL, 02.10.18)

Missile defense:

• Trump’s budget for 2019 shows the administration’s concern about the threat from North Korea’s missile program. The budget calls for increasing the number of strategic missile interceptors from 44 to 64 and boosting other elements of missile defense. The new interceptors would be based at Fort Greely, Alaska. (AP, 02.12.18)
• The Russian air force conducted a successful test launch of a "new modernized interceptor of the Russian missile defense system" at the Sary-Shagan test site. The new interceptor has better accuracy, range and extended service life. The test likely took place Feb. 11. (Russianforces, 02.12.18)

Nuclear arms control:

• Russia has developed a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) that the United States has declared is in violation of the INF Treaty, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Despite Russia’s ongoing development of other Treaty-compliant missiles with intermediate ranges, Moscow probably believes that the new GLCM provides sufficient military advantages to make it worth risking the political repercussions of violating the INF Treaty, according to the report. (DNI, 02.13.18) 
• The U.S. ambassador to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison, said on Feb. 13 that “if Russia doesn’t come into compliance [of the INF Treaty], they will face the consequence of not having a treaty.” Hutchison warned of “a time-frame” after which the U.S. “will not be able to allow Russia to have the capability that we agreed neither of us would have without getting a deterrent opportunity as well.” (AP, 02.13.18)
• Sergey Chemezov, a top figure in Russia's arms industry, said he didn't believe that the New START accord limiting the number of nuclear weapons deployed by the two countries could be renewed in the current political environment. "How can we talk about further negotiations about arms reductions when we don't trust each other?" Chemezov said. (The Washington Post, 02.10.18)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• U.S. forces killed some Russian mercenaries in Syria last week in what may be the deadliest clash between citizens of the former foes since the Cold War. More than 200 contract soldiers fighting on behalf of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad died in a failed attack on a base held by U.S. and mainly Kurdish forces in the Deir el-Zour region. A U.S. official put the death toll at about 100, with 200 to 300 injured. The offensive began about 8 kilometers (5 miles) east of the Euphrates River de-confliction line late on Feb. 7, when pro-Assad forces fired rounds and advanced, U.S. Col. Thomas F. Veale said in a statement. It’s not clear who was paying the Russian contingent. (Bloomberg, 02.13.18)
  • About 300 men working for a Kremlin-linked Russian private military firm were either killed or injured in Syria. A Russian military doctor said around 100 had been killed, and a source who knows several of the fighters said the death toll was in excess of 80 men. The military doctor said that a fellow doctor who flew to Syria on one of the recent medevac flights told him that around 100 people in the Russian force had been killed as of the end of last week, and 200 injured. A source with ties to the Wagner organization, and who has spoken to people who took part in the Feb. 7 clashes, said his contacts told him more than 80 Russian contractors were killed. (Reuters, 02.15.18)
  • A military doctor, who works in a Moscow military hospital and was directly involved in treating wounded men evacuated from Syria, said that as of late Feb. 10 there were more than 50 such patients in his hospital, 30 percent of whom were seriously wounded. (Reuters, 02.15.18)
  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson has acknowledged that up to five Russians may have died in U.S. airstrikes in Syria earlier this month. “We’re not talking about 400, 200, 100 and not 10,” Maria Zakharova said. “According to preliminary data, as a result of armed clashes the cause of which is being ascertained, we could be talking about the deaths of five people, presumably Russian citizens.” (The Moscow Times, 02.15.18)
  • Most of those killed and injured were Russian and Ukrainian, many of them veterans of the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine, according to Alexander Ionov, who runs a Kremlin-funded group that fosters ties to separatists and who’s personally fought alongside pro-government forces in Syria. (Bloomberg, 02.13.18)
  • Names of some of the Russian military contractors reportedly killed have begun to surface. Russian fighters Vladimir Loginov and Kirill Ananyev were killed with “dozens” of other Russians on Feb. 7. The open-source investigation collective Conflict Intelligence Team corroborated reports of Loginov’s death in Syria and added three names to the list: Alexei Ladygin, Stanislav Matveyev and Igor Kosoturov. (The Moscow Times, 02.13.18)
• “The deconfliction communication line with Russia is constantly used,” U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Feb. 11. “We keep each other informed. The Russians profess that they were not aware when we called about that force that had crossed, and it came closer. They were notified when the firing began. That's when we heard there were no Russians there. And we go out of our way to ensure that we do not endanger the Russians, as you know.” (The National Interest, 02.13.18)
• Moscow is seriously concerned by the latest developments in Syria and calls on sides to exercise restraint and avoid an escalation of the situation, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Feb. 10. Israel launched heavy air strikes in Syria on Feb. 10, saying it hit air defenses and Iranian targets, and the Syrian army claimed to have brought down an Israeli F-16 that crashed in northern Israel in a major escalation of tension. (Reuters, 02.10.18)
  • Israel is counting on Russian President Vladimir Putin to keep confrontations with Iran and Syria from spiraling into war as the Trump administration mostly watches from the sidelines, Michael Oren, a senior aide to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said. “The American part of the equation is to back us up,” but the U.S. currently “has almost no leverage on the ground,” Oren said. (Bloomberg, 02.11.18)
• The Syrian opposition’s seven-year insurgency is probably no longer capable of overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but rebels probably retain the resources to sustain the conflict for at least the next year, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Russia and Iran are planning for a long-term presence, securing military basing rights and contracts for reconstruction and oil and gas exploitation, according to the report. (DNI, 02.13.18)
• A U.S. military drone aircraft destroyed a Russian-made T-72 tank in Syria over the weekend in the second defensive strike against pro-Syrian government forces in less than a week. (Reuters, 02.13.18)
• French President Emmanuel Macron said chemical attacks on civilians in Syria would constitute a “red line” that will lead to French air strikes. (Bloomberg, 02.13.18)
• The U.S. and Russia clashed Feb. 13 in the U.N. Security Council over the latest fighting in Syria, as the secretary-general’s special envoy said this was the most “violent, worrying and dangerous” moment in the past four years. (Bloomberg, 02.14.18)
• The Syrian Kurdish militia partnering with the U.S-led coalition to fight Islamic State militants said Feb. 12 that it is holding a “huge number” of foreign fighters in Syria, including fighters from Russia, Europe, China, Japan and Arab countries, and none of their home countries want them back. (AP, 02.12.18)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is accusing the United States of trying to maintain control over eastern Syria, saying Feb. 13 the “Americans have taken dangerous unilateral steps.” (AP, 02.13.18)
• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned that the battle against Islamic State isn’t over, urging other members of a coalition aimed at destroying the group to make sure it does not emerge as a threat elsewhere. (Bloomberg, 02.13.18)
• Some Russian officials express as much concern about limiting Iranian investments in Syria as they do about blocking potential western re-engagement. “Assad is often acting very much in Iran’s interest,” one official said. “When it comes to potential trade deals and reconstruction, it is therefore vital that we do this in a way that it creates benefits for him, or for people around him . . . but that this remains between him and us—without Iran.” (Financial Times, 02.14.18)
• The foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey plan to meet in Kazakhstan next month to discuss the situation in Syria, Kazakh Foreign Minister Kairat Abdrakhmanov said. (Reuters, 02.13.18)
• Deputy chairman of the Russian Senate’s defense and security committee Frants Klintsevich has resigned from his post. Klintsevich has angered the Russian Defense Ministry by failing to coordinate his statements on Russia’s campaign in Syria, Kommersant reported on Feb. 12, citing its “military sources.” The paper said Klintsevich’s statement that the Su-25 warplane in Syria may have been shot down by a Soviet-designed Igla MANPAD “became the last straw.” (Russia Matters, 02.15.18).

Cyber security:

• The U.S. intelligence community expects that Russia will conduct bolder and more disruptive cyber operations during the next year, most likely using new capabilities against Ukraine, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea will pose the greatest cyber threats to the United States during the next year, according to the report. (DNI, 02.13.18)
• President Trump responded Feb. 10 to a news report alleging that U.S. spies paid a Russian who claimed he could provide classified information stolen from the National Security Agency and promised compromising information about the president and his connections to Russia. “I hope people are now seeing & understanding what is going on here. It is all now starting to come out - DRAIN THE SWAMP!" (The Washington Post, 02.10.18)
• The United States on Feb. 15 joined Britain in formally blaming Russia for a huge cyberattack last June that was aimed at Ukraine but crippled computers worldwide, a highly public naming-and-shaming exercise that could further fray relations with Moscow. The White House threatened unspecified ''international consequences'' for the attack, which it said ''was part of the Kremlin's ongoing effort to destabilize Ukraine and demonstrates ever more clearly Russia's involvement in the ongoing conflict.'' Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Feb. 15 Russia categorically denies allegations by the British government. (New York Times, 02.16.18, The Moscow Times, 02.15.18, Reuters, 02.15.18)
• Two Russian nationals were sentenced to prison for their roles in the most prolific computer hack to hit corporate America. Vladimir Drinkman was sentenced Feb. 14 to 12 years in prison. Dmitriy Smilianets who served as a black-market broker, was sentenced to 51 months and 21 days in prison, or time he has already served. (Bloomberg, 02.14.18)
• Hackers stole more than 1 billion rubles ($17 million) from Russian banks using the Cobalt Strike security-testing tool in 2017. (Reuters, 02.13.18)
• Hackers stole 339.5 million rubles ($6 million) in an attack on the SWIFT international payments system in Russia last year. (RFE/RL, 02.16.18)
• Previously undetected malware directed at users of the desktop version of the messaging app Telegram has been discovered by Russian security firm Kaspersky Lab. It was designed to trick users into enlisting their machines to mine cryptocurrencies like Monero and Zcash. (Reuters, 02.12.18)
• Pyeongchang Winter Olympics organizers confirmed on Feb. 11 that the Games had fallen victim to a computer malware attack dubbed "Olympic Destroyer" during the Feb. 9 opening ceremony, but they refused to reveal the source. A separate hacking operation, dubbed Operation GoldDragon, has attempted to infect target computers belonging to South Korean Olympics-related organizations. Experts say the attacks could have come from Russia and North Korea. (Reuters, 02.11.18, NPR, 02.13.18)

Elections interference:

• The special counsel investigating Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election charged 13 Russian nationals, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, and three Russian organizations on Feb. 16 with illegally using social media platforms to sow political discord. The indictment represents the first charges by special counsel Robert Mueller for meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The indictment reveals the Russian effort to disrupt the U.S. election was even bolder than previously known. It charges that some Russian nationals entered the U.S. and in some cases paid Americans to assist their alleged political sabotage. Charges in the indictment include conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to commit wire fraud and bank fraud and aggravated identity theft. The indictment alleges that some of the defendants were in communication with President Donald Trump’s campaign, but not that Trump officials knowingly colluded with Russia. No Trump officials or associates are named in the indictment. (New York Times, 02.16.18, Politico, 02.16.18)
• Influence operations, especially through cyber means, will remain a significant threat to U.S. interests as they are low-cost, relatively low-risk and deniable ways to retaliate against adversaries, to shape foreign perceptions and to influence populations, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Russia probably will be the most capable and aggressive source of this threat in 2018, according to the report, which states that the 2018 U.S. mid-term elections are a potential target for Russian influence operations. (DNI, 02.13.18) 
• The heads of major U.S. intelligence agencies warned that Russia intends to use cyberattacks, more propaganda and other tactics to try to influence upcoming elections for the U.S. Congress and in some European countries. Testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Feb. 13, the directors of the CIA, the FBI, the National Security Agency and three other spy agencies all agreed that Moscow had not curtailed its efforts to influence U.S. politics since the 2016 presidential election. The testimony coincided with the release of the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (RFE/RL, 02.13.18)
  • U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Feb. 13 that while Russia would aim to cooperate with the U.S. in areas that advance its interests, intelligence officials expect Moscow—"at a minimum”—to continue using propaganda, social media, “false-flag personas,” sympathetic spokesmen and other venues to “try to exacerbate social and political fissures” in the U.S. Coats said there is "no single agency in charge" of blocking Russian meddling. (Bloomberg, 02.13.18, The Washington Post, 02.13.18)
  • CIA Director Mike Pompeo said that the intelligence community has offensive "capabilities" to "raise the costs to adversaries" seeking to hack into election systems to disrupt voting. (The Washington Post, 02.13.18)
  • FBI Director Christopher A. Wray said the bureau is undertaking "a lot of specific activities" to counter Russian meddling but was "not specifically directed by the president." (The Washington Post, 02.14.18)
• The White House signaled Feb. 11 that a classified Democratic memo it blocked last week could see the light of day soon, after changes are made to address concerns raised by Justice Department officials. (Wall Street Journal, 02.11.18)
• Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the U.S. House Intelligence Committee said on Feb. 14 that Democratic panel members were in "good discussions" with the FBI on declassifying a memo about the Russia investigation and hoped to resolve the issues very soon. (Reuters, 02.14.18)
• House Republican leaders are weighing "further steps" to force former top White House strategist Stephen Bannon to answer investigators' questions in their probe of Russian election meddling—including potentially declaring him in contempt of Congress—after a Feb. 15 interview they called "frustrating." (The Washington Post, 02.15.18)
• Republicans on Capitol Hill are probing a collection of unverified and salacious allegations against U.S. President Donald Trump that was compiled in late 2016 by a freelance journalist and researcher named Cody Shearer, who then passed his work along to an associate of Hillary Clinton. Shearer wrote eight pages of raw and unverified notes that are purportedly drawn from interviews with two prominent journalists and Russian intelligence contacts, among others. (Wall Street Journal, 02.09.18)
• “I am not going to discuss the investigation in question with the president, much less provide information from that investigation to him,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing Feb. 13. (Bloomberg, 02.13.18)
• A federal judge lashed out about "unacceptable" delays in the fraud and money laundering case of former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and his longtime employee, Rick Gates. The judge criticized both sides for failing to set a trial date in special counsel Robert Mueller III's prosecution of the two co-defendants. The judge has earlier said there had been too many secret filings in the high-profile criminal case and said she would make several of them public. (The Washington Post, 02.15.18, Bloomberg, 02.14.18)
• Russia's disinformation campaign during the 2016 presidential election relied heavily on stories produced by major American news sources to shape the online political debate, according to an analysis by Columbia University social-media researcher Jonathan Albright published Feb. 15. (The Washington Post, 02.16.18)
• Anthony Ferrante coordinated the U.S. government’s response to Russian election interference. Now, he’s helping the BuzzFeed news site defend itself from a Russian billionaire’s lawsuit. (Foreign Policy, 02.12.18)

Energy exports:

• Germany and Poland have different views on the planned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Berlin does not believe it poses a threat to energy diversification, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Feb. 16. "We think this is an economic project. We are also for energy diversification,” she said after meeting with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in Berlin. (Reuters, 02.16.18) 
• OPEC said Feb. 12 it now expects world oil demand to reach 98.6 million barrels a day this year. That's 60,000 barrels a day higher than last month's forecast, representing growth of 1.59 million barrels a day and largely in line with demand growth last year. The cartel raised its demand figure for 2017, stand at 97.01 million barrels a day. (Wall Street Journal, 02.12.18)
• OPEC and its allies have almost achieved their goal of clearing an oil glut, but their efforts could be derailed by rising supplies from the U.S. and other rivals. (Bloomberg, 02.13.18)
• OPEC will soon discuss with Russia a new way to measure oil inventories as producers meet to review the supply-cuts agreement that expires at the end of 2018. (Bloomberg, 02.14.18)
• Saudi Aramco is seriously studying an opportunity to invest in a future LNG plant in Russia’s Arctic. (Bloomberg, 02.14.18)
• Russian banks and a joint Russia-China investment fund are eager to participate in Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering. (Bloomberg, 02.14.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

• No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says he will, "in the near future," issue new sanctions against wealthy Russians in retaliation for Moscow's election meddling. “We are actively working on those sanctions," Mnuchin told the Senate Finance Committee during a hearing on Feb. 14. "You should expect them in the near future." Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says any new sanctions imposed by the United States would have little effect on Russia’s people or economy. (RFE/RL, 02.15.18, RFE/RL, 02.15.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has told Russian business leaders that he believes Western countries will tire of their sanctions against Moscow "soon" and relations will improve. (RFE/RL, 02.09.18)
• Russia will further cut its dependence on the United States when it comes to systems in the financial and banking sectors if it is hit with more sanctions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Feb. 15. (Reuters, 02.15.18)
• Vagit Alekperov, head of Russia’s No. 2 oil producer Lukoil, said the banks had become more demanding when dealing with his company after Washington published a so-called “oligarch list.” (Reuters, 02.15.18)
• As part of the Trump administration’s budget plan for the 2019 fiscal year the Treasury would allocate $1 million and four new staffers to the Russia and Ukraine sanctions programs. (Wall Street Journal, 02.13.18)
• Under U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2019 proposed budget, U.S. government funding for the space station would end by 2025. The government would set aside $150 million to encourage commercial development and use future savings to aim for the moon. (AP, 02.12.18)
• Russia may block access to YouTube and Instagram after billionaire Oleg Deripaska won a court injunction against videos and photographs that showed him and Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Prikhodko relaxing on a yacht with a woman described as an escort. Google has warned that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s YouTube channel will be blocked if his team does not remove an excerpt of his graft investigation into Deripaska and Prikhodko. Facebook has said it is complying with Russian law after blocking Instagram posts linked to Navalny's expose. (The Moscow Times, 02.16.18, The Moscow Times, 02.13.18, Bloomberg, 02.12.18)
• Moscow’s city government announced that it will consider a request from a Russian parliament member to change the postal address of the United States Embassy in Moscow to 1 North American Dead-end. (Los Angeles Times, 02.12.18)
• The World Chess Federation said UBS Group AG will close its bank accounts with immediate effect, more than two years after long-time president Kirsan Ilyumzhinov was put on a sanctions list by the U.S. (Bloomberg, 02.14.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• In his probable next term in office, Russian President Vladimir Putin will resort to more authoritarian tactics to maintain control amid challenges to his rule, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. He is likely to increase his use of repression and intimidation to contend with domestic discontent over corruption, poor social services and a sluggish economy with structural deficiencies. (DNI, 02.13.18)
• Four out of eight candidates registered in Russia’s presidential elections next month are believed to have misreported their income to election officials. Documents detailing the discrepancies suggest the four candidates with additional income include Sergei Baburin, Pavel Grudinin, Ksenia Sobchak and Boris Titov. (The Moscow Times, 02.14.18)
• Russian opposition party Yabloko, whose candidate is challenging Vladimir Putin in the presidential elections next month, has warned of a spike in political repressions and torture in St. Petersburg, the country’s second-largest city. (The Moscow Times, 02.12.18)
• Ahead of schedule and slightly over a month before the presidential elections, Russian lawmakers on Feb. 16 passed legislation raising the minimum wage by up to 43 percent. The bill is set to raise the minimum wage to 11,163 rubles ($198) by May 1, 2018. (The Moscow Times, 02.16.18)
• Human error may be to blame for the crash of a Russian plane that killed 71 people, Russian investigators said Feb. 13, noting that the plane's pilots failed to turn on the heating unit for its measuring equipment, resulting in flawed speed data. (AP, 02.13.18)
• “The president has a cold,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Feb. 13, adding that Vladimir Putin, whose voice appeared hoarse at meetings a day earlier, would limit his public appearances while continuing to work. “It’s winter.” (Bloomberg, 02.13.18)
• Gay Uzbek journalist Ali Feruz working for one of Russia’s last independent newspapers has left for Germany after a Moscow court allowed him to travel to any country outside his native Uzbekistan. (The Moscow Times, 02.15.18)\
• Russia’s chances of reclaiming the “investment grade” credit rating it lost three years ago are rising, potentially causing headaches for index-tracking bond buyers who will be wary of U.S. sanctions. A move by Moody’s late in January means that both it and S&P Global now have Russia’s foreign currency debt rating just one step away from the coveted upper bracket. Russian Eurobonds may see more than $2 billion of inflows if the nation wins back an investment-grade credit score this month.  (Reuters, 02.11.18, Bloomberg, 02.13.18)
• Russia, the world’s top exporter of wheat, is now expected to sell 36.6 million metric tons overseas. The U.S. was the last nation to ship out more, a quarter century ago. (Bloomberg, 02.15.18)
• State-controlled VTB Group is buying 29 percent of Magnit PJSC from billionaire Sergey Galitskiy, who said investors don’t trust his vision for Russia’s second-largest food retailer after its share price plunged in the past year. (Bloomberg, 02.16.18)
• Russian billionaires Oleg Deripaska and Vladimir Potanin have revived a years-old battle for control of the country’s biggest mining company, MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC. An agreement gave a company controlled by Roman Abramovich a small stake in Norilsk Nickel in exchange for a promise to keep the peace between Deripaska and Potanin. Abramovich’s Crispian Investment Ltd. now wants to sell part of the stake. (Bloomberg, 02.16.18)

Defense and aerospace:

• In 2018, Russia will continue to modernize, develop and field a wide range of advanced nuclear, conventional and asymmetric capabilities to balance its perception of a strategic military inferiority vis-a-vis the United States, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 02.13.18) 
• An unmanned Russian cargo spacecraft has blasted off for the International Space Station two days after the original launch was delayed. (RFE/RL, 02.13.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The alleged leader of an armed gang and a member of Russian security forces have been killed in a counterterrorist operation in Russia's volatile North Caucasus region of Daghestan. (RFE/RL, 02.15.18)
• Prosecutors in Moscow have said that fewer crimes were recorded in 2017 than in any year in the past decade thanks in part to major drops in robbery and murder rates. The 140,000 crimes committed last year marked a 19 percent drop compared to 2016. (The Moscow Times, 02.12.18)
• Police have launched an investigation after several foreign embassies in Moscow received envelopes containing a mysterious white powder. (The Moscow Times, 02.15.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• In his probable next term in office, Russian President Vladimir Putin will rely on assertive and opportunistic foreign policies to shape outcomes beyond Russia’s borders, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Moscow will use a range of relatively low-cost tools to advance its foreign policy objectives, including influence campaigns, economic coercion, cyber operations, multilateral forums and measured military force, according to the report.  Russia’s slow economic growth is unlikely to constrain Russian foreign policy or by itself trigger concessions from Moscow in Ukraine, Syria or elsewhere in the next year. (DNI, 02.13.18)
• King Abdullah II of Jordan visited Russia on Feb. 15 to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the situation in Syria. The king emphasized Russia’s leading role in the settlement in Syria, pointing to the importance of cooperation between Moscow and Amman towards stabilizing the situation in the region. (Reuters, 02.12.18, TASS, 02.15.18)
• Dutch Foreign Minister Halbe Zijlstra resigned Feb. 13 after admitting that he had lied about attending a meeting in 2006 at which he said Russian President Vladimir Putin had outlined a strategy for building a greater Russia. (Reuters, 02.13.18)
• Rosatom and the Ministry of Scientific Research and Technological Innovations of the Republic of Congo have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. (World Nuclear News, 02.14.18)
• Trade between Russia and Germany has increased by about 25 percent in the last year. (DW, 02.13.18)

China:

• China and Russia will seek spheres of influence and to check U.S. appeal and influence in their regions, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. The leading state intelligence threats to U.S. interests will continue to be Russia and China, based on their services’ capabilities, intent and broad operational scope, according to the report. Both Russia and China continue to pursue antisatellite (ASAT) weapons as a means to reduce U.S. and allied military effectiveness, according to the report, which estimates that Russian and Chinese destructive ASAT weapons probably will reach initial operational capability in the next few years. (DNI, 02.13.18)
• “A major thrust of the National Defense Strategy oriented on great power competition: specifically, Russia and China,” U.S. Lt. Gen. Anthony R. Ierardi, director of force structure, resources and assessment on the Joint Staff said Feb. 12. “And, in this respect, our investments to support activities, both capability and posture, in Asia and Europe are an important aspect of this budget.” (The National Interest, 02.14.18)

Ukraine:

• Munich Security Conference Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger said earlier that peace talks in the so-called Normandy Format—consisting of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine—would be held on the sidelines of the Munich conference this week. (RFE/RL, 02.16.18)
• The conflict in eastern Ukraine is likely to remain stalemated and a major offensive by either side is unlikely in 2018. Ukraine will remain at risk of domestic turmoil, which Russia could exploit to undermine Kiev’s pro-West orientation, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Popular frustrations with the pace of reforms, depressed standards of living, perceptions of worsening corruption and political polarization ahead of scheduled presidential and legislative elections in 2019 could prompt early elections. These factors will threaten Ukraine’s nascent economic recovery and potentially lead to changes in its foreign policy that further inflame tension between Russia and the West, according to the report. (DNI, 02.13.18) 
• According to Pentagon budget documents, $200 million in the fiscal year 2019 defense budget will go toward advising, training and equipping the Ukrainian military so the country can "conduct internal defense operations to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, while also supporting needed institutional transformation efforts." (Defense News, 02.12.18)
• Speaking at the trial of Ukraine’s ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, former Russian lawmaker Ilya Ponomaryov said Feb. 14 that he “knows for sure” Putin pushed forward the seizure of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in the night of Feb. 22, 2014. According to Ponomaryov, many Russian officials were against the March 2014 annexation of Crimea, but Putin pressured them to support the idea. (RFE/RL, 02.14.18)
• Four Ukrainian marines have been found shot dead in their living quarters in eastern Ukraine and two fellow servicemen have been detained on suspicion of killing them. (RFE/RL, 02.15.18)
• Ukraine says one of its soldiers has been killed and two wounded in clashes in the country's east. The Defense Ministry said Feb. 13 that Russia-backed separatists violated a frequently breached cease-fire 11 times during the previous 24 hours, firing machine guns, grenade launchers and mortars. (RFE/RL, 02.13.18)
• Mikheil Saakashvili has vowed to push ahead with his struggle against Ukraine's leadership in defiant remarks in Warsaw, a day after he was seized in Kiev and banished to Poland in a dramatic expulsion he has blamed on Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Saakashvili has since arrived in the Netherlands, his wife's home country. (RFE/RL, 02.14.18, RFE/RL, 02.13.18)
• The mayor of Odessa, Hennadiy Trukhanov, has been detained upon arrival from abroad on suspicion of embezzlement. (RFE/RL, 02.14.18)
• Russia's Federal Security Service says it detained Ukrainian national Kostyantyn Davydenko in Russian-controlled Crimea on suspicion of espionage on Feb. 11. (RFE/RL, 02.12.18)
• The Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) has overseen a "political risk insurance contract" for the Central Spent Fuel Storage Facility at the site of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. OPIC, the U.S. government's development finance institution, is providing insurance to support the project trust's $250 million fixed-rate bond securities issuance in U.S. capital markets. (World Nuclear News, 02.15.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Tension over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh could devolve into a large-scale military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which could draw in Russia to support its regional ally, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Both sides’ reluctance to compromise, mounting domestic pressures, Azerbaijan’s steady military modernization and Armenia’s acquisition of new Russian equipment sustain the risk of large-scale hostilities in 2018, according to the report. (DNI, 02.13.18) 
• Russia views Belarus as a critical buffer between itself and NATO and will seek to spoil any potential warming between Minsk and the West, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 02.13.18) 
• Moldova’s ostensibly pro-European ruling coalition—unless it is defeated in elections planned for November—probably will seek to curb Russian influence and maintain a veneer of European reform while avoiding changes that would damage the coalition’s grip on power, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 02.13.18) 
• Russia will pressure Central Asia’s leaders to reduce engagement with Washington and support Russian-led economic and security initiatives, while concerns about ISIS in Afghanistan will push Moscow to strengthen its security posture in the region, according to the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 02.13.18) 
• Despite having only 18 million people, Kazakhstan—which has a less oppressive authoritarianism and a more liberal market economy—attracted $152 billion of foreign direct investment from 1991 to 2016, in World Bank figures, against $9.6 billion for Uzbekistan. When Uzbek dictator Islam Karimov died, Uzbek GDP per capita in purchasing power parity terms was just over $6,000: Kazakhstan’s was almost $25,000. (Financial Times, 02.12.18)
• Muratkhan Toqmadi, a jailed Kazakh businessman, has pleaded guilty to murdering a banker on a hunting trip in 2004 and told a court he did so at the behest of Mukhtar Ablyazov, a fugitive tycoon and vocal critic of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev. (RFE/RL, 02.16.18)
• Twelve human rights organizations have urged Uzbek authorities to release journalist Bobomurod Abdullaev and other people they say have been "detained solely for peacefully exercising their right to freedom of expression." (RFE/RL, 02.14.18)
• European Union diplomats have decided to extend the EU arms embargo on Belarus by another year, but have made an exception for small-caliber sport guns. (RFE/RL, 02.14.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

• “No one wants to start a world war over a volunteer or a mercenary who wasn’t sent by the state and was hit by Americans,” Vitaly Naumkin, a senior adviser to Russia’s government on Syria, said. (Bloomberg, 02.13.18)