This Week's Highlights

• Biden in an interview with NBC News on Feb. 10 warned Americans in Ukraine to leave immediately and reiterated that under no circumstances would he send U.S. troops to Ukraine, even to rescue Americans in case of a Russian invasion. “That's a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another,” he said. "We’re in a very different world than we’ve ever been," he added. 
• The long-stalled Minsk-2 agreement for resolving the Ukraine crisis figured prominently in meetings between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and France’s Emmanuel Macron this week. The agreement “calls for a ‘decentralization’ of Ukraine that confers ‘special status’ on areas of the east now controlled by separatists,” writes The New York Times, “with the ‘specificities’ to be agreed on ‘with representatives of these areas. Russia, in a creative interpretation of these ‘specificities,’ has argued that they should include granting the elected representatives in these areas a veto on Ukrainian foreign policy decisions.” Ukraine, however, “has laid out three ‘red lines’ that it says it will not cross to find a solution,” according to the AFP: “no compromise over Ukraine's territorial integrity, no direct talks with the separatists and no interference in its foreign policy.”
• Biden administration officials have said they have a twin set of punitive measures “ready to go as soon as the first shots are fired” by Russia in Ukraine, The Washington Post reports. “One is a package of financial sanctions against some of Russia’s largest banks. The second involves export controls that would aim to starve some of Russia’s strategic industries of key components, such as semiconductors—nearly all of which are made or designed with U.S. equipment or software.” Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers continued to disagree about “immediate sanctions… The final agreement,” the paper writes, “is likely to include preinvasion measures against a handful of Russian defense officials and oligarchs, as well as at least one smaller bank considered critical to the defense sector… All preinvasion sanctions probably would carry a national security waiver, meaning Biden could decline to impose them.”
• Overall, Western sanctions “meant Russia’s annual growth from 2014 to 2018 fell short of prior expectations by 0.2 percent,” according to a 2019 IMF report cited by the Financial Times. This means “they had a much smaller impact than, for instance, the decline in the oil price during the same period.”
• The European Central Bank has warned lenders with Russian exposure—including French bank Société Générale, one of the Western lenders with the biggest operations in Russia—to prepare for the potential imposition of international sanctions if Ukraine is invaded, the Financial Times reports. Brussels, meanwhile, is considering measures to shield consumers from a potential energy crisis in the event of Russian military escalation in Ukraine. Diplomats told the Financial Times “that the EU was discussing contingency measures. … The priority is to cope with any reduction in gas flows from Russia, which accounts for about 40% of Europe’s imports.”
• Ukraine’s armed forces are gearing up for military exercises in response to Russia’s troop buildup along its borders, the Wall Street Journal cites Ukraine’s defense minister as saying Feb. 7; the maneuvers and training would include antitank weapons newly supplied by the U.S. and U.K., as well as Turkish armed drones. On Feb. 9, as several Russian warships arrived in the Black Sea, a Ukrainian think tank said Russia has issued warnings that it will close off Ukraine’s coastline for missile drills Feb. 13-19, The Moscow Times reports.
• Russian courts and investigators have grabbed headlines this week. Jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny will face a new trial around Feb. 15 that could see up to 10 more years tacked on to his prison time, RFE/RL reports. Russian investigators have launched a criminal probe of the dismantled Memorial civil rights group, which raises awareness of Soviet-era repressions, on charges of “rehabilitating Nazism,” The Moscow Times cites RBC reporting. And a court in Siberia has sentenced a 16-year-old boy to five years in prison in a terrorism case prompted by plans he had with two friends to add the building of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) to the popular video game Minecraft to allow players to blow it up, according to RFE/RL.

I. SPECIAL SECTION: Ukraine-Russia-NATO Crisis

• Russia and Ukraine failed to reach a breakthrough at marathon talks in Berlin aimed at ending the long-simmering conflict with pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin's envoy said Feb. 11. “Unfortunately, almost nine hours of negotiations ended without any visible, tangible results expressed in documents,” Kremlin envoy Dmitry Kozak told reporters. His Ukrainian colleague Andriy Yermak said the four sides “were unable to agree on any joint document” but expressed hope that they will continue talks “very soon.” Kozak said the Feb. 10 talks, brokered by Germany and France, failed over differences between Russia’s and Ukraine’s interpretations of the Minsk agreements. Kozak said the talks would likely continue among more junior officials until sufficient progress could be made to work toward a summit of the countries’ leaders, a goal he said was unrealistic at present. (The Moscow Times, 02.11.22, The Wall Street Journal, 02.10.22)
• Russia is close to completing preparations for what appears to be a large-scale invasion of Ukraine that could leave up to 50,000 civilians killed or wounded, decapitate the government in Kyiv within two days, and launch a humanitarian crisis with up to 5 million refugees fleeing the resulting chaos, according to updated U.S. military and intelligence assessments briefed to lawmakers and European partners over the past several days. Russia's deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyansky, called the warnings “madness and scaremongering.” (The Washington Post, 02.05.22, The Moscow Times/AFP, 02.07.22)
• New satellite images collected Feb. 9 and 10 and released by the U.S.-based technology company Maxar appear to reveal continuing Russian military buildup near Ukraine, despite a flurry of international efforts to defuse the Ukraine crisis. Stephen Wood, a senior director at Maxar, told CNN that the firm identified new large deployments of troops and equipment in annexed Crimea as well as Kursk in western Russia and Belarus. The images released by Maxar and published by a number of U.S. outlets also appeared to show field hospitals set up at two different locations in Belarus. (The New York Times, 02.10.22, The Moscow Times, 02.11.22)
  • Rob Lee, an expert on the Russian military and fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute, told The Moscow Times that “the Russian military, as of this week, has all the military capabilities to actually conduct a large-scale invasion.” (The Moscow Times, 02.11.22)
  • Samuel Charap, a Russian security analyst at the U.S. RAND Corporation, tweeted Feb. 10 that there was “absolutely no need to be doing what Moscow is doing unless they're creating the option for something qualitatively bigger than anything we've seen.” (The Moscow Times, 02.11.22)
• While Russia is not yet capable of mounting a total invasion of Ukraine, portions of its army have reached full combat strength and appear to be in the final stages of readiness for military action should the Kremlin order it, according to an assessment by the Ukrainian military’s high command. Of particular concern to Ukrainian officials is the Crimean Peninsula. In the last two weeks, Russia has deployed an additional 10,000 troops to the region; more ominously, it has put some commands on the highest level of readiness, according to the military’s assessment. Along much of Ukraine’s border, analysts are seeing what they describe as a near textbook example of a modern military making final preparations for war. They cited the arrival of logistical infrastructure like hospital and communications units, electronic equipment meant for disrupting enemy communications, air power and additional troops to man equipment that was deployed earlier.(The New York Times, 02.04.22)
• A series of Russian military moves and potential political steps has heightened concern within the Biden administration that Moscow could launch a major military attack in Ukraine within weeks, U.S. officials said. Russia currently has 83 battalion tactical groups poised near the country, a substantial increase from the 53 groups it had in December and 60 last month, according to officials. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.05.22)
• “We have continued to see even over the last 24 hours additional capabilities flow from elsewhere in Russia to that border with Ukraine and Belarus,” John Kirby, Pentagon spokesperson, said. “The numbers continue to grow. We maintain that he’s north of 100,000 [troops] for sure. And he continues to add to that capability. We also see indications that additional battalion tactical groups are on their way. And so every day he adds to his options,” Kirby added.  (Financial Times, 02.10.22)
• The Russian Defense Ministry said Feb. 5 that it has moved Su-25 attack planes to Belarus, expanding Moscow’s air power in the region. The Conflict Intelligence Team, a group of Russian bloggers that monitors Russian military activity, reported in recent days that a Russian National Guard unit is positioned near Ukraine and that National Guard units have been seen leaving Chechnya. Those National Guard units could be used to occupy Ukrainian territory after it was seized by Russian combat forces and to prevent civilians from observing the final preparations on Russian territory for an attack, analysts said. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.05.22)
• Ukraine’s military warned on Feb. 11 that Russian-backed separatists in the country’s east are conducting military exercises, completing a near encirclement of Ukraine by hostile forces, even as diplomatic initiatives have failed to gain traction. The drills tested the force’s preparation for live fire operations, practicing “driving artillery, tank and armored vehicles” in field exercises, the Ukrainian statement said. The statement said some units of the force were put on their highest level of alert and that senior Russian military officers were observing the activity. The warning was the latest evidence of a shift by Kyiv to more alarming commentary about the military risk facing Ukraine. (The New York Times, 02.11.22)
• White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan has said Russia could invade Ukraine within days or weeks but also that Moscow could choose diplomacy to resolve tensions over Russia's military buildup near Ukraine. "We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead." Any possible Russian action could include annexing Ukraine's Donbass region, cyberattacks or a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he said (RFE/RL, 02.07.22)
• Russia rejected on Feb. 4 the United States' claims that it is plotting a false flag operation to justify an attack on Ukraine. “I’d recommend not to take anyone’s word for it, especially the State Department, when it comes to these issues,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the U.S. claims “nonsense.”  (The Moscow Times, 02.05.22)
• The United States said Feb. 6 it was not sending troops to start a war with Russia after deploying 3,000 additional soldiers to Germany and Eastern Europe over the Ukraine standoff with Moscow. President Joe Biden "has been clear for months now that the United States is not sending forces to start a war or fight a war with Russia in Ukraine," Sullivan said. "We have sent forces to Europe to defend NATO territory." (AFP, 02.06.22)
  • Paratroopers from the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division landed at Rzeszow Airport in southeast Poland. The division's commanding general told reporters at the airport the deployment was a "prudent measure" and "defensive in nature." About 1,700 service members, mainly paratroopers from the 82nd, will deploy from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Poland "over the next days," U.S. Army sources have said. On Feb. 6, 2,000 U.S. troops arrived in Poland and Germany on Feb. 6 to bolster European security.  (RFE/RL, 02.07.22, RFE/RL, 02.05.22, The Washington Post, 02.06.22)
• Biden urged Americans Feb. 10 to immediately leave Ukraine, as Russia's live-fire drills and build-up of troops around the ex-Soviet state deepened fears of an invasion. "American citizens should leave now," Biden said in a pre-taped interview with NBC News. "We're dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It's a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly." Biden reiterated that under no circumstances would he send U.S. troops to Ukraine, even to rescue Americans in case of a Russian invasion. “That's a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another,” he said. "We’re in a very different world than we’ve ever been," he added. (AFP, 02.11.22, NBC, 02.11.22)
• Denmark is in talks to allow U.S. soldiers and military equipment on its soil, ending a decades-long policy that barred foreign troops from its territory as tensions in the Baltic Sea region increase after Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine. (Financial Times, 02.10.22)
• The U.S. and an informal coalition of several NATO countries are operating an air bridge to ship military aid to Ukraine, flying in the weapons and ammunition that Kyiv has requested to mitigate a decided Russian military edge and deter a possible invasion. Eight U.S. cargo airplanes have landed in Kyiv since Jan. 22, after Biden approved $200 million in new military aid for Ukraine, with more scheduled in coming days. NATO members, including the U.K. and the Baltic states, have also sent plane loads of weapons, with Poland and the Czech Republic slated to make deliveries soon. U.S. shipments have so far included a panoply of materiel, including small-arms ammunition, mortar and artillery shells, antitank guided missiles, bunker-busting missiles, grenade launchers, explosive ordnance disposal suits and Mossberg 500 pump-action shotguns, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials. The U.K. has supplied thousands of antitank missiles and the Baltic states of Latvia and Lithuania sent American-made Stinger antiaircraft missiles. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.06.22)
• Biden held a phone conference on Feb. 11 with a wide array of NATO and European Union leaders to discuss what appears to be a deteriorating security situation in Ukraine. The White House said that the call included Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany; Prime Ministers Boris Johnson of Britain, Mario Draghi of Italy and Justin Trudeau of Canada; and Presidents Emmanuel Macron of France, Andrzej Duda of Poland, Klaus Iohannis of Romania, Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission and Charles Michel of the European Council; and the NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg. White House officials said that the call would be discussed by his aides at an afternoon press briefing. (The New York Times, 02.11.22)
• Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Feb. 10 pledged more military support to NATO allies amid the Russian buildup surrounding Ukraine, placing an additional 1,000 British troops “at readiness” to respond to a possible humanitarian crisis. Speaking in Brussels after a meeting with NATO’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, Mr. Johnson said Europe faced “a very dangerous moment, and at stake are the rules that protect every nation, big and small.” (The New York Times, 02.10.22)
• On Feb. 7, Germany said it was sending up to 350 troops to Lithuania as part of NATO’s enhanced forward presence on the alliance’s eastern flank. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.08.22)
• The U.K. is sending 350 troops to Poland as part of broader efforts by NATO allies to reinforce forces in eastern Europe. (Financial Times, 02.08.22)
• Should Putin decide to invade, American officials believe he is not likely to move until the second half of February. By that point, more ground will have frozen, making it easier to move heavy vehicles and equipment, and the Winter Olympics in Beijing will have ended or be winding down, which could help Putin avoid antagonizing President Xi Jinping of China, a critical ally for the Russian president. However, on Feb. 11 U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia has sent more forces to its border with Ukraine and could launch an invasion at any time, including during the Beijing Winter Olympics. (The New York Times, 02.06.22, Reuters, 02.11.22)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Milley described to lawmakers a bristling array of additional Russian military assets that have encircled Ukraine. They include 11 amphibious assault ships, in the Black Sea and in the Mediterranean, with the capacity to carry five battalions of Russian Marines who could land in Ukraine from the south, the officials said. In addition, Putin has deployed a number of submarines to the Black Sea, the defense officials told lawmakers. Putin has also deployed Special Operations forces—some 1,500 troops—near and even inside the Ukrainian border, the officials said. Those troops, they said, work closely with the Russian military intelligence agency, the GRU, which has in the past directed cyber- and other attacks on foes. (The New York Times, 02.06.22)
• Seven people familiar with the new U.S. intelligence assessments said Putin has 70 percent of the combat power he needs for an assault that—under the most extreme scenario—could quickly take out the capital, Kyiv, and remove Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Over the weekend, senior Russian officials dismissed U.S. intelligence reports that Russia could take over Kyiv in days as alarmist and as unlikely as an attack by Washington on London. (The Washington Post, 02.06.22)
• U.S. officials are concerned that the massive Russia-Belarus military exercise, set to begin Feb. 10, could be used as part of a multipronged invasion of Ukraine. The exercise has seen Russian troops and equipment travel more than 6,000 miles to Belarus, and the deployment of advanced missile systems, fighter planes and bombers. The deployment “is completely unprecedented,” said Konrad Muzyka, of Rochan Consulting, a military analysis company. He noted the huge transfers of hardware from thousands of miles away in Russia’s far east. “We are looking at about 60 to 70 percent of the combat potential of the Eastern Military District being moved to Belarus,” he said. (The Washington Post, 02.06.22, Financial Times, 02.08.22)
  • Russian troops will leave Belarus after the end of joint military exercises later this month, the Kremlin said Feb. 8. Russia and Belarus are staging snap drills called “Allied Resolve” near Ukraine’s northern border with advanced missile systems and fighter jets in two phases. After the combat readiness phase that kicked off on Jan. 18 ends this Feb. 9, the active phase of “Allied Resolve” is scheduled to resume on Feb. 10 and end on Feb. 20. (The Moscow Times, 02.08.22)
  • U.S. and Belarusian defense chiefs held rare telephone talks on Feb. 10 to avoid a "miscalculation" during Russia-Belarus joint military drills, the Pentagon said. U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley spoke with General Staff of the Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich of Belarus to discuss "issues of concern" related to regional security. (AFP, 02.11.22)
• Russia says six warships from its navy are heading to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean to take part in military maneuvers amid heightened tensions with the West over Moscow's troop buildup on its border with Ukraine, which has raised fears of a possible invasion of the former Soviet republic. (RFE/RL, 02.08.22)
• Russia has issued warnings that it will close off Ukraine’s coastline for upcoming missile drills next week, a Ukrainian think tank said Feb. 9 as several Russian warships arrived in the Black Sea. These appear to be the most large-scale closures in the past eight years, according to Andrii Klymenko, member of Ukraine’s Institute of Strategic Black Sea Studies. He said Russia issued Feb. 13-Feb. 19 air and naval navigation warnings in the Black Sea and the adjacent Sea of Azov for missile and gunnery firing exercises. (The Moscow Times, 02.09.22)
• U.S. military and intelligence officials believe that Russia is planning to hold a big nuclear weapons exercise this month as a warning to NATO not to intervene if President Vladimir Putin decides to invade Ukraine. Gen. Mark Milley, chair of the joint chiefs, and Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, told lawmakers in the House of Representatives on Feb. 3 that Putin was planning to start the exercises in mid-February, according to a Congressional aide with knowledge of the closed-door briefing. (Financial Times, 02.05.22) 
• Ukraine’s armed forces geared up for military exercises in response to Russia’s troop buildup along its borders. In a television interview late Feb. 7, Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said soldiers would conduct maneuvers and training with antitank weapons newly supplied by the U.S. and U.K., as well as Turkish armed drones. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.08.22) 
• On Feb. 6, Zelensky’s office maintained that a diplomatic solution was more likely than war. “An honest assessment of the situation suggests that the chance of finding a diplomatic solution for de-escalation is still substantially higher than the threat of further escalation,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said. (The Washington Post, 02.06.22)
• Kamala Harris will hold a series of in-person meetings with U.S. allies and partners at the Munich Security Conference next week seeking to deter Russian aggression in Ukraine, a trip that serves as a major diplomatic test of her vice presidency. (Reuters, 02.09.22) 
• The White House on Feb. 6 said Biden and Macron had spoken by phone to discuss “ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response to Russia’s continued military build-up on Ukraine’s borders.” (The Washington Post, 02.06.22)
• In Kyiv French President Emmanuel Macron said he now saw the "possibility" for talks involving Moscow and Kyiv to move forward, and "concrete, practical solutions" to lower tensions between Russia and the West. Putin said after his talks with Macron that Moscow would "do everything to find compromises that suit everyone." He said several proposals put forward by Macron could "form a basis for further steps" on easing the crisis over Ukraine. He did not provide any details but said the two leaders would speak by phone after Macron meets with Zelensky in Kyiv on Feb. 8. Kyiv has laid out three "red lines" that it says it will not cross to find a solution—no compromise over Ukraine's territorial integrity, no direct talks with the separatists and no interference in its foreign policy. (AFP, 02.08.22, AFP, 02.08.22)
• The Kremlin said Feb. 9 there were "positive signals" for the resolution of the Ukraine crisis following a meeting of Macron and Zelensky in Kyiv a day earlier. "There were positive signals that a solution to Ukraine could be based only on fulfilling the Minsk agreements," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. He added, however, that there was no indication from Zelensky that Ukraine's authorities were ready to "quickly" do what "Kyiv should have done long ago." (The Moscow Times, 02.09.22)
  • The Minsk 2 agreement calls for a “decentralization” of Ukraine that confers “special status” on areas of the east now controlled by separatists, with the “specificities” to be agreed on “with representatives of these areas.” Russia, in a creative interpretation of these “specificities,” has argued that they should include granting the elected representatives in these areas a veto on Ukrainian foreign policy decisions, including membership in NATO. In this way, Ukraine would effectively become part of Russia’s sphere of influence. “This is not going to happen,” Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, said last week. “Never.” (The New York Times, 02.06.22)
  • Asked whether Russia would invade Ukraine, Putin did not rule out the possibility. He insisted Zelensky needed to implement the Minsk 2 agreement—which could give the Kremlin a way to influence Ukraine’s foreign-policy decisions. (The New York Times, 02.08.22)
• French officials said Putin had moved towards de-escalating the Ukraine crisis by promising not to undertake any new “military initiatives” and agreeing to withdraw thousands of Russian troops from Belarus after the completion of planned exercises. If the agreement—brokered during talks with Macron on Feb. 7—is confirmed by Putin, it could ease tensions in the region. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the Financial Times that Putin and Macron were “prepared to continue dialogue” on the French proposals but that the discussions had yet to fully assuage Moscow’s concerns. (Financial Times, 02.08.22)
  • "President Putin assured me of his readiness to engage," Macron said, adding: "There is no security for the Europeans if there is no security for Russia." The French presidency said the proposals include an undertaking from both sides not to take any new military action, the launching of a new strategic dialogue and efforts to revive the peace process in Kyiv's conflict with Moscow-backed separatists in the country's east. The French president offered few details of his ideas, but said they would involve rethinking post-Cold War security arrangements. “Can NATO solve the whole question of our collective security?” Macron said. “I don’t believe so.” (AFP, 02.08.22, The New York Times, 02.08.22)
  • Macron told reporters before his meeting with Putin that a “Finlandization” of Ukraine was “one of the models on the table.” (The New York Times, 02.08.22)
    • Macron later denied using the term. But according to press reports, he told journalists traveling with him: "It’s one of the models on the table,” adding: "We shouldn’t be looking for a reference term just now. I think we’ll invent something new, by definition.” Zelensky later backed Macron up at a news conference in Kyiv on Feb. 8, saying he hadn't heard the French leader use the term. But even a general discussion of anything close to resembling “Finlandization” raised eyebrows and concern in Zelensky’s cabinet, according to one person with knowledge of the internal discussions. (RFE/RL, 02.10.22)
  • “Russia is European,” Macron said. “Whoever believes in Europe must know how to work with Russia and find the ways and the means to construct the European future among Europeans.” (The New York Times, 02.08.22)
• Speaking in Berlin at the end of his two-day whirlwind tour to Moscow and Kyiv, Macron urged continued "firm dialogue" with the Kremlin as the only way to defuse fears Russia could invade Ukraine. "We must find ways and means together to engage in a firm dialogue with Russia," he said. (RFE/RL, 02.08.22) 
• Lavrov has described a two-hour meeting in Moscow with British counterpart Liz Truss as “disappointing” and “a dialogue of a mute person with a deaf person.” Speaking to the press on Feb. 10, Lavrov said Truss’s delegation had come “unprepared.” Truss said: “I certainly wasn’t mute in our discussions earlier. I put forward the U.K.’s point of view on the current situation as well as seeking to deter Russia from an invasion of Ukraine.” (Financial Times, 02.10.22)
  • The Kremlin on Feb. 11 cited a geographical gaffe by Truss as an example of how poorly informed Western leaders were about the subject matter in the East-West standoff over Ukraine. In the closed-door meeting, Lavrov had asked Truss whether the U.K. accepted that two Russian regions—Voronezh and Rostov—belonged to Russia and that Russia had the right to move troops and equipment to the areas. According to Russia’s Kommersant, Truss replied that “​​the U.K. will never recognize Russian sovereignty over these regions.” Truss later clarified the remarks to Russian media outlets and the British Embassy in Russia also released a statement from the foreign minister, stating: “During the meeting, it seemed to me that minister Lavrov was talking about a part of Ukraine. I have clearly indicated that these regions [Rostov and Voronezh] are part of sovereign Russia.” (The Moscow Times, 02.11.22, Reuters, 02.11.22)
• A Russian invasion of Ukraine would have "tragic consequences" for both countries, U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has warned his counterpart in Moscow. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said growing military tensions in Europe were "not our fault.” At a news conference on Feb. 11, Wallace said that Russian forces were in a position to invade "at any time", but he had been given security assurances by Shoigu. (BBC, 02.11.22)
• Putin told reporters at the Kremlin that if Ukraine were to join NATO—a scenario that Western officials characterize as a far-off possibility, but one that the Kremlin describes as an existential threat—a wider war would follow. “Do you want France to go to war with Russia?” Putin said in answering a French reporter’s question, claiming that a NATO-allied Ukraine would seek to retake Crimea. “That’s what will happen!” (The New York Times, 02.08.22)
• Lavrov said on Feb. 10 that Western threats towards Moscow would do nothing to ease tensions over Ukraine. "Ideological approaches, ultimatums, threats — this is the road to nowhere," Lavrov said at the start of talks with his British counterpart Liz Truss in Moscow. (AFP, 02.10.22)
• Putin said Russia was still working on a new written response in its back-and-forth with NATO and the United States over the security architecture of Eastern Europe, predicting that the “dialogue” would continue even though he said the West had ignored Russia’s principal demands. (The New York Times, 02.08.22)
• On Feb. 6, Biden was asked by reporters what factors Putin was considering in making his decision. “I think things he cannot get,” Biden said. (The Washington Post, 02.06.22)
• “I expect we’ll have this crisis with us, in various forms, for all of 2022, at least,” said Andrei Sushentsov, dean of the school of international relations at MGIMO, the elite Moscow university run by the Russian Foreign Ministry. He described the current standoff as only the first step in a drawn-out Russian effort to force the West to agree to a new security architecture for Eastern Europe. Russia’s aim, according to Sushentsov: keep the threat of war ever-present, and thus compel negotiations that Western officials have avoided until now. (The New York Times, 02.09.22)
• “It’s safe to say that this is not a force posture that Russia is going to maintain for an extended period of time,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA. “They are entering a go/no-go posture, and they’re going to make that decision in the coming weeks.” (The New York Times, 02.09.22)
• Jen Psaki, White House press secretary, said: “What we’re looking at here [is] whether or not Russia is taking de-escalatory steps. They are not. They are taking escalatory, not de-escalatory, steps. We certainly hope that changes.” (Financial Times, 02.10.22)
• German Chancellor Olaf  Scholz will be in Moscow and Kyiv next week for talks with Putin and Zelensky. (AFP, 02.08.22)
• Josep Borrell, the EU’s top foreign policy official, pledged to keep pursuing diplomatic options but warned that the Ukraine crisis represented “the most dangerous moment for European security since the end of the cold war.” Borrell’s comments followed his meeting in Washington with Antony Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state. Borrell said Lavrov had sent a letter to EU member states about Russia’s security concerns and he was “coordinating the answer to this letter insisting on the fact that there is still room for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.” (Financial Times, 02.07.22)
• The Russian military plans to stage large-scale tank drills in several southern regions “in the next three weeks” amid Western warnings that it could invade Ukraine, the Defense Ministry announced Feb. 8. The more than 30 so-called “bilateral company tactical exercises” will take place at 15 firing ranges across nearly every Southern Military District region. (The Moscow Times, 02.08.22)

• Alexander Khodakovsky, a commander in separatist-held eastern Ukraine has appealed to Moscow to send 30,000 troops and military equipment to aid separatist forces against a potential Ukrainian offensive. (The Moscow Times, 02.08.22)
• Lithuania's president said Feb. 9 the Baltic nation will ask the United States to permanently station troops in the country as Western allies seek to beef up security amid concerns about Russia’s military intentions in the tense region. (RFE/RL, 02.09.22)
• The U.S. State Department on Feb. 10 issued a new advisory urging Americans in Ukraine to leave the country at the earliest possibility, strengthening earlier warnings that urged U.S. citizens to "consider" such action. Earlier, the Biden administration on Feb. 9 readied plans for U.S. military forces to help evacuate Americans once they cross into Poland should Russia attack Ukraine. About 7,500 Americans are registered with the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv and thousands more could be in the country but the U.S. government has no way to track them, according to U.S. officials. (RFE/RL, 02.10.22, The Washington Post, 02.10.22)
• Nearly 90 prominent Russian public figures—academics, activists and cultural figures among them—have published an open letter arguing that “Russia does not need a war with Ukraine and the West. No one is threatening us, no one is attacking us. Policies based on the idea of such a war are immoral and irresponsible and must not be conducted in the name of the Russian people.” Signatories include long-time opposition politician Grigory Yavlinsky, Levada Center sociologist Lev Gudkov, film and theater director Vladimir Mirzoev and musician Andrey Makarevich. (Russia Matters, 02.04.22)
• Investors are piling into bets that there won’t be a war. The Russian ruble and Ukrainian hryvnia have strengthened against the dollar in recent days, appreciating 3% and 1.5%, respectively, for the month earlier on Feb. 11. The currencies traded at multiyear lows in the last week of January. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.11.22)
• See also Sanctions section below.

II. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukraine is poised to open its long-awaited centralized storage site for spent nuclear fuel within the exclusion zone of Chernobyl with first shipments expected to arrive in April, Energoatom, the state nuclear corporation, said. (Bellona, 02.04.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Indirect talks between the United States and Iran to revive the JCPOA have reportedly resumed in Vienna, with officials signaling an agreement was "in sight." The negotiations--attended by Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, and indirectly the United States--had broken off on Jan. 28 to allow diplomats to return to their capitals for consultations. (RFE/RL, 02.09.22)
• The U.S. State Department is waiving sanctions on Iran's civilian nuclear program in a technical step necessary to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement, a senior official said Feb. 4. The waiver was needed to allow for technical discussions that were key to the talks about a return to the deal, a senior State Department official said. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on Feb. 5 the U.S. move to restore sanctions waivers to Tehran was not enough and Washington should provide guarantees for the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal. (AFP, 02.04.22, RFE/RL, 02.05.22)
• "The issue of removal of sanctions and Iran benefiting from it is Iran's red line in the talks," Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told a news conference in Tehran on Feb. 7. (RFE/RL, 02.07.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Finland has sealed a deal to buy 64 F-35 stealth warplanes from the United States, in a sign of its military's close ties with NATO at a time of high tension between the West and Russia in Europe. The northern European nation signed the $9.4 billion agreement on Feb. 11. (Reuters, 02.11.22)
• See special section on Ukraine crisis above.

Sanctions:

• Analysts caution that the deterrent power of even the most hard-hitting measures is only as strong as the United States and its allies are explicit and unified about the consequences of invasion. And so far, some say, that clarity and unanimity are lacking. Administration officials have said they have a twin set of measures ready to go as soon as the first shots are fired. One is a package of financial sanctions against some of Russia’s largest banks. The second involves export controls that would aim to starve some of Russia’s strategic industries of key components, such as semiconductors—nearly all of which are made or designed with U.S. equipment or software. (The Washington Post, 02.06.22)
• On Capitol Hill, lawmakers appear to be stopping short of explicitly ordering Biden to punish giants such as Sberbank, VTB and Gazprombank, which would have the greatest impact. Instead, they are giving him instructions to select a few banks from a list of about a dozen. The two parties disagree, however, over how many Russian officials and banks should face immediate sanctions. The GOP wants to impose immediate sanctions against a number of smaller banks, as well as senior government officials and oligarchs. But Democrats and the White House worry that acting too harshly before an invasion will weaken the deterrent effect of the overall measures. (The Washington Post, 02.06.22)
• The final agreement is likely to include preinvasion measures against a handful of Russian defense officials and oligarchs, as well as at least one smaller bank considered critical to the defense sector, officials said. All preinvasion sanctions probably would carry a national security waiver, meaning Biden could decline to impose them. (The Washington Post, 02.06.22)
• Sanctions against Russia may cost smartphone makers $10 billion a year. Losses for Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi and Realme may amount to 760 billion rubles a year in the event that American microelectronics are prohibited from being imported to Russia, according to GS Group, Kommersant reports. (Russia Matters, 02.07.22)
• Differences between the U.S. and EU sanctions regimes undermined their effectiveness. Overall the sanctions meant Russia’s annual growth from 2014 to 2018 fell short of prior expectations by 0.2 percent, according to an IMF report in 2019, meaning they had a much smaller impact than, for instance, the decline in the oil price during the same period. (Financial Times, 02.07.22)
• The [U.S.-EU] sanctions package taking shape will cover energy, banking, high-tech companies and oligarchs with close links to Putin. Critically, western capitals are more willing to inflict pain on the Russian banking system than in 2014. In addition, the allies are willing to hit gas producers, as well as oil companies. U.S. and EU officials are also seeking to finalize measures preventing exports to Russia of an unprecedented range of key technologies produced by western companies. The aim is to hold back high-tech components that Russia cannot easily replace by turning to suppliers in other parts of the world, degrading Russia’s ability to diversify its fossil-fuel-reliant economy. (Financial Times, 02.07.22)
• Société Générale chief executive Frédéric Oudéa has said the bank is bracing for a potential hit to its Russian business should the stand-off over the future of Ukraine escalate, but saw no fundamental reason to leave. The French lender is one of the European banks with the biggest operations in Russia, mostly through its Rosbank retail banking subsidiary. Several banks, including SocGen, have been put on notice by the European Central Bank, which warned lenders with Russian exposure to prepare for the potential imposition of international sanctions in the event Ukraine is invaded. (Financial Times, 02.10.22)
• Britain has published a new set of laws that widen the scope of those linked to Russia who could be hit by sanctions should the Kremlin invade Ukraine, as Western allies move to outline the consequences that Moscow could face. The legislation includes the power to place sanctions on people who are or have been involved in "destabilizing Ukraine or undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty, or independence of Ukraine." Also subject to sanction are those involved in "obtaining a benefit from or supporting the government of Russia" in the event of an invasion. (RFE/RL, 02.10.22)
• A yacht named Graceful and said to belong to Russian President Vladimir Putin left port in Hamburg abruptly before finishing repairs, according to reports from German media. It is unclear what prompted the move, but the $100 million yacht's relocation from German waters to Kaliningrad, part of Russian territory, came amid fears the West would impose sanctions if Russia invaded Ukraine. (Business Insider, 02.09.22) 

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• “Do we want a Russia that is totally aligned with China or one that is somewhere between China and Europe?” Bruno Le Maire, the French economy minister said Feb. 4 as Russia and China declared “no limits” to their friendship and called on NATO to “abandon its ideologized Cold War approaches.” (The New York Times, 02.06.22)
• The English version of the joint statement by Putin and Xi runs a whopping 5,364 words — but none of those words is “Ukraine.” Analysts say the omission probably reflects China’s unwillingness to support a Russian invasion of its neighbor to the west. (The Washington Post, 02.04.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• In an interview with the RIA Novosti news agency published on Feb. 7, Vladimir Yermakov, the head of nuclear nonproliferation and controls at Russia's Foreign Ministry, said the discussions over security guarantees have taken priority over strategic arms controls talks. "Our further dialogue with the Americans regarding the strategic stability, to a big extent, will depend on how the issues linked to security guarantees are solved. At this point, no understanding has been reached regarding the schedule of new meetings for the strategic dialogue," Yermakov said. (RFE/RL, 02.07.22)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria

• The United States has quietly cut a deal with Russia that eases the political pressure on Syria at the United Nations. If the 15-nation Security Council endorses it, the U.N. security body would hold fewer meetings on Syria’s chemical weapons and consolidate separate sessions on humanitarian relief and a political transition that have gained little traction over the past several years. (Foreign Policy, 02.08.22)
• A Russian government document released on Feb. 7 revealed that around 200 Belarusian troops would be deployed to Syria alongside Russian soldiers. (The National Interest, 02.08.22)

Cyber security:

• A hacking team that Ukraine says is controlled by Russian intelligence has targeted a wide range of organizations in the country, according to cybersecurity research by two U.S. technology companies. Microsoft said on Feb. 4 that since October 2021 a group called Gamaredon had tried to obtain sensitive information from military, governmental and nongovernmental organizations in Ukraine. The information from Microsoft came a day after cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks said that Gamaredon attacked a Western government entity in Ukraine in January. (RFE/RL, 02.04.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The European Union's energy commissioner has visited Azerbaijan as part of an effort to diversify the continent's energy sources and reduce dependency on Russian gas. Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Feb. 4 to discuss ramping up supplies. "We want the volume of gas exported from Azerbaijan to Europe to reach 10 billion cubic meters," Simson said at a press conference after the talks.  (RFE/RL, 02.04.22)
• Brussels is examining how to shield consumers from a potential energy crisis as part of plans to protect Europe’s households, businesses and borders from the fallout of a Russian military escalation in Ukraine. Diplomats told the Financial Times that the EU was discussing contingency measures to deal with surging gas prices, a possible migratory emergency and cyber security threats. The priority is to cope with any reduction in gas flows from Russia, which accounts for about 40 percent of Europe’s imports. (Financial Times, 02.07.22)
• Top officials on the EU-U.S. Energy Council are set to meet today in Washington. The meeting will be crucial for efforts to bolster Europe's natural gas supplies amid a possible Ukraine invasion, as well as broader efforts to reduce emissions and combat climate change on both sides of the Atlantic. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.08.22)
• The output of Russian gas was at its highest level in the last five years. Russia’s gas output was up 1.1% year on year in January at 69.4 bcm, after output grew at almost all the main gas producing companies. (bne IntelliNews, 02.08.22)
• Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz struggled to present a united front against a Russian threat to invade Ukraine, as a White House meeting exposed differences over the fate of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Biden told reporters that if Moscow invaded, the pipeline linking Russia with Germany would not become operational. “I promise you, we will be able to do that,” he said. Scholz repeatedly dodged questions on the fate of the pipeline and refused to mention it by name, instead offering generic assurances that Russia would pay a “high price” for any attack. (Financial Times, 02.08.22)
• U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Feb. 6 that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project will not survive a Russian invasion of Ukraine. “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward,” Sullivan said. (The Washington Post, 02.06.22)
• French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has described the unopened gas pipeline between Germany and Russia as a “key issue” in talks to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine. In an interview, Le Maire said “opening the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is one of the key negotiation points, and probably one of the key issues in finding a way out of the crisis with Russia.” (bne IntelliNews, 02.10.22)
• Austria is sticking with its opposition to including the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in a package of sanctions against Moscow that the European Union is preparing in the event Russia invades Ukraine, Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said Feb. 11. (Reuters, 02.11.22)

Climate change:

• Russia and China oppose setting up new barriers in international trade under the pretext of fighting climate change, according to a joint statement adopted by the two countries on Feb. 4. Researcher Marco Giuli believes they are "clearly unhappy" with the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism and discussions over EU-U.K.-U.S. coordination on "carbon levies." (TASS, 02.04.22, Russia Matters, 02.05.22)
• The Russian government plans to invest 5.9 billion rubles ($79 million) into climate and decarbonization research in the next eight years, the country’s deputy prime minister for environmental policy Viktoria Abramchenko has said. (The Moscow Times, 02.09.22)
• The world’s glaciers may contain less water than previously believed, a new study has found, suggesting that freshwater supplies could peak sooner than anticipated for millions of people worldwide who depend on glacial melt for drinking water, crop irrigation and everyday use. The latest findings are based on satellite images taken during 2017 and 2018. In parts of Russia and northern Asia, glacier volume was 35% smaller, the study found. (The New York Times, 02.07.22) 
• Peatlands cover only 3% of Earth’s land area but have soaked up an estimated 600 gigatons of carbon since the last Ice Age. And they are still soaking it up in many places. But, increasingly, the carbon is leaking out too, as peat bogs are drained or used as planting soil or as climate-driven wildfires tear through the forests above them. Carbon emissions from peatlands amount to nearly 2 gigatons a year, according to one estimate—nearly twice the contribution from global aviation. In Russia, the total area of peatlands, according to ClimateChangePost, is 369.1 million hectares, or 21.6% of the country’s territory. (National Geographic, 02.08.22, Russia Matters, 02.08.22) 

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Apple has opened a representative office in Russia, the Roskomnadzor communications watchdog said Feb. 4, becoming the first company to comply with the Kremlin's new rules requiring foreign technology firms to localize their operations in the country. Music streaming service Spotify said it had also opened a representative office in Russia on Feb. 4, but is yet to complete some of the law’s other technical requirements, the RBC business site reported. Google, Viber and Likee said they intend to comply with the new rules, while several companies, including Facebook-owner Meta, TikTok and Telegram, are yet to publicly respond. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 02.04.22)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• An antiwar alliance of veterans that emerged from the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and spanned the political spectrum is splintering badly over the U.S. response to the threatening moves of Putin against Ukraine. The fracturing is more ideological than partisan: Some groups on the left that opposed the war in Afghanistan are siding with President Biden’s deployment of thousands of troops to Eastern Europe, while other liberals are staunchly against it. Some conservative groups and lawmakers oppose the deployments, while others are pressing the president to go further, arguing that he has not been tough enough. (The New York Times, 02.09.22)

 

III. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia reported more than 200,000 new COVID-19 infections Feb. 11 for the first time since the start of the pandemic. The country reported 203,949 new infections over the last 24 hours, Russia’s nationwide coronavirus task force said. It also said 722 COVID-19 patients died—the highest number in four weeks. (The Moscow Times, 02.11.22) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
• Russian firebrand politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), has been hospitalized with COVID-19 and is in serious condition, according to Russian media reports. (RFE/RL, 02.09.22)
• A petition that calls on the Kremlin to dismiss Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has gained over 100,000 signatures in the two days since it was launched. Additionally, an activist in Russia's Republic of Tatarstan has held a single-person picket demanding Kadyrov be fired over his public threats to kill the family of a rights lawyer. (The Moscow Times, 02.08.22, RFE/RL, 02.09.22)
• Russia’s Central Bank raised its key rate by a full percentage point to 9.5% on Feb. 11 in its latest attempt to tame surging inflation, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level in five years. (The Moscow Times, 02.11.22)
• January prices rose by their highest levels in six years across the Russian economy, the country’s statistics service said on Feb. 9, increasing pressure on household budgets. Russia’s rate of inflation accelerated 8.73% year-on-year in the first month of the year, following rapid price rises over the past 20 months amid an otherwise robust recovery from the coronavirus recession. Inflation, as measured by the nation’s consumer price index (CPI), currently stands at more than double the Central Bank of Russia’s target of 4%. (The Moscow Times, 02.10.22)
• Surging oil prices and the global economic recovery propelled Rosneft, Russia’s leading oil producer, to record profits last year, offsetting cuts in production because of OPEC+ restrictions. Rosneft, which accounts for about 40% of Russia’s total crude oil output, said its net profit increased nearly seven-fold year on year in ruble terms to 883 billion rubles and nearly six fold-in dollar terms to $11.9 billion. (Financial Times, 02.11.22)
• Leading Russian online retailer Ozon announced it beat growth expectations for 2021 as e-commerce continues to grow. It finished the year strongly. Gross merchandise value in the fourth quarter surged to 175 billion rubles ($2.3 billion) compared with 76 million rubles the previous year. (bne IntelliNews, 02.07.22)
• As Western powers could restrict supplies of IT equipment and support as part of potential sanctions against Russia, Sber is preparing for all scenarios. As reported by Kommersant, the state-controlled financial giant conducted technical exercises simulating the interruption of technical support from Microsoft, Nvidia, SAP, VMware and other companies. The authorities are also currently working out possible scenarios should supplies of microelectronics to Russia were restricted or Russian companies lost access to support services from foreign suppliers. (EWDN, 02.03.22)
• Jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny will face a new trial next week inside the penal colony where he is being held, a move that could see as many as 10 more years tacked on to his prison time. Navalny's press secretary tweeted on Feb. 8 that Moscow's Lefortovo district court's judges will travel to the region of Vladimir to try Navalny on charges of embezzlement from his now defunct and banned Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) and for contempt of a Moscow court. The court had said earlier that the trial will be held on Feb. 15. (RFE/RL, 02.08.22)
• Russian investigators have launched a criminal probe of the dismantled Memorial civil rights group, which raises awareness of Soviet-era repressions, into “rehabilitation of Nazism,” the RBC news website reported Feb. 5. Russia’s veterans group claims that 19 victims of Soviet repression in Memorial’s database of more than 3 million names were Nazi collaborators. The veterans group had asked authorities to investigate Memorial for “denying, concealing and falsifying the crimes of Nazi accomplices by memorializing them as victims of political repression,” according to a January statement on Memorial’s website. (The Moscow Times, 02.07.22)
• Journalist Yelena Milashina says she has decided to temporarily leave Russia amid death threats against her by the Kremlin-backed authoritarian leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. Milashina, who works for the Novaya Gazeta newspaper, told Dozhd TV late on Feb. 3 that the paper’s editor in chief, 2021 Nobel Prize winner Dmitry Muratov, and some "high-level sources" have insisted that she leave the country because the level of danger she faces is "relatively high." (RFE/RL, 02.04.22)
• A Russian court has suspended prominent investigative journalist Andrei Zakharov’s “foreign agent” status pending his dispute of the restrictive designation, his employer BBC Russia reported Tuesday. (The Moscow Times, 02.09.22)
• A Russian Orthodox cleric who supported jailed opposition politician Navalny has fled Russia for Poland over safety concerns. (RFE/RL, 02.08.22)
• Kamila Valieva, the 15-year-old Russian superstar who was expected to deliver her nation its third straight Olympic gold medal in women's figure skating, tested positive for a banned heart medication before the Beijing Games, the Russian newspaper RBC reported. The sample was reportedly obtained before Valieva won the European championship last month in Estonia. The drug detected, trimetazidine, is a metabolic agent that helps prevent angina attacks and treats vertigo, according to the European Union’s medicines agency. It is banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency because it can help endurance and increase blood flow efficiency. (Bloomberg, 02.09.22) 

Defense and aerospace:

• A Russian Soyuz rocket blasted 34 satellites into space on Thursday for British operator OneWeb, which aims to provide broadband internet everywhere in the world, Moscow's space agency Roscosmos said. (AFP, 02.11.22)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• A court in Russia has sentenced two Crimean Tatars to lengthy prison terms on charges of being members of a banned Islamic group amid an ongoing crackdown on the ethnic group. The Southern District Military Court in Rostov-on-Don on Feb. 11 sentenced Zekirya Muratov and Vadim Bektemirov to 11 1/2 and 11 years in prison, respectively, after finding them guilty of being members of the Hizb ut-Tahrir group. (RFE/RL, 02.11.22)
• A court in Siberia has sentenced a 16-year-old boy to five years in prison in a high-profile terrorism case prompted by plans he had with two friends to add the building of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) to the popular video game Minecraft to allow players to blow it up. (RFE/RL, 02.10.22)
• A court in Moscow has rejected an appeal against the extension of the pretrial detention of Ivan Safronov, a prominent former journalist accused of high treason in a case widely considered to be politically motivated. (RFE/RL, 02.10.22)
• A court in Russia's Far East has sentenced a man Russian media identified as a retired officer of Russia's counterintelligence structures, Viktor Korolyov, to 12 years in prison on a high treason charge, which he denies. The Primorye Krai regional court in the city of Vladivostok said on Feb. 7 that the city resident, whose identity was not disclosed, was found guilty of allegedly collecting classified data linked to a hydroacoustic system to locate submarines which he planned to hand to a representative of an unspecified foreign country. (RFE/RL, 02.07.22)

 

IV. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Putin’s talks with Macron this week were held with social distancing after the French leader declined to take a Russian-administered coronavirus test, the Kremlin said Feb. 11. While the Kremlin requires all state visitors to pass a Russian-administered Covid test before meeting the president, sources close to Macron told Reuters that he refused on the grounds that he didn’t want to hand over his DNA to the Russian state. (The Moscow Times, 02.11.22)
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been named as Norway’s next central bank governor despite warnings that his appointment could threaten its independence and was untimely given the military alliance’s tensions with Russia. (Financial Times, 02.04.22)
• Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor, has been nominated to join the board of Russian energy giant Gazprom, fueling scrutiny of his close links to the Kremlin-controlled company as tension mounts between Moscow and the west over whether Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine. (Financial Times, 02.04.22)
• In Libya, the General Administration of Criminal Investigation in Al-Marg city said that a local citizen found 323 bars of hashish, stamped with a picture of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the seaside on Feb. 5. (The Libya Observer, 02.06.22)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian Ombudswoman Lyudmyla Denisova has condemned the latest arrests of four Crimean Tatar activists in Russian-occupied Crimea, calling the actions of the Moscow-imposed authorities "illegal." Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) officers detained Ansar Osmanov, Ernest Seytosmanov, Marlen Mustafayev, and Ametkhan Abdulvapov on Feb. 9 on a charge of organizing the activities of the Hizb ut-Tahrir Islamic group. Later in the day, the four men were placed in pretrial detention until at least April 7. (RFE/RL, 02.10.22)
• See also special section on Ukraine crisis above.

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Eighty-seven percent of Russians know about the mass protests that took place in Kazakhstan at the beginning of January, according to a recent Levada Center poll. Of respondents, 48% say the cause of the protests was popular displeasure with rising prices and worsening quality of life, while 35% say the protests were provoked by powers abroad. 67% of Russians feel positively about the participation of Russian troops in CSTO operations. (Levada Center, 02.08.22)
• Human Rights Watch (HRW) has called on the Kazakh authorities to invite international experts to join its domestic investigative efforts into serious human rights violations during a deadly wave of unrest in the country last month. (RFE/RL, 02.09.22)
• Hundreds of residents of Kazakhstan’s restive town of Zhanaozen have rallied for several days to demand jobs after deadly anti-government protests that shook the country last month The protesters gathered in front of the town’s administration on Feb. 7, the sixth day of their rallies, saying that 2,500 men and women demand jobs in the local oil industry from the local and central government. Later, hundreds of workers at the Burghylau oil company in Zhanaozen launched a strike demanding higher salaries and better work conditions, joining workers at other energy companies in the restive western Manghystau region. (RFE/RL, 02.07.22, RFE/RL, 02.09.22)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko considers that Central Asian countries may be forced to join the Russian and Belarusian Union State out of economic necessity in the next 10-15 years. (bne IntelliNews, 02.10.22)
• Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili says he held a series of "secret" meetings with authoritarian Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko in London to help persuade him not to follow Russia in recognizing the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Speaking in court on Feb. 9, Saakashvili said he had discussed the issue of recognizing the regions with Lukashenka in London on four different occasions. He did not say when exactly the meetings took place. (RFE/RL, 02.09.22)
• Another athlete has fled Belarus due to fear of reprisal from the country's authoritarian government—17-year-old cross country skier Darya Dolidovich, who is in Poland after leaving her home country with her family, according to Reuters. Dolidovich's father and coach, seven-time Olympian Sergei Dolidovich, told Reuters he believes his daughter was banned from competing over his participation in street protests against the 2020 re-election of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which critics have described as fraudulent. (Yahoo News, 02.09.22)
• Azerbaijan has freed eight Armenian soldiers captured during deadly border clashes last year as the two sides look to hold new talks on easing their simmering border conflict. (RFE/RL, 02.07.22)
• The National Security Service of Armenia (HAAT) has detained 19 people suspected of being members of an "espionage network" in the South Caucasus nation. The HAAT said on February 10 that dozens of servicemen in different units of the armed forces may have been involved in the activities of the spy network, which worked for an unspecified nation. (RFE/RL, 02.10.22)
• Adakhan Madumarov, a Kyrgyz lawmaker and the leader of opposition Butun (United) Kyrgyzstan party, says a probe has been launched against him into allegations that he committed treason over a real estate deal signed 12 years ago. (RFE/RL, 02.10.22)
• Tajik authorities have arrested the mother of exiled blogger Sherzod Mamadjonov on an extremism charge that the outspoken government critic called a politically motivated attack on his family. (RFE/RL, 02.09.22)
• An explosion at a hospital in Uzbekistan's eastern region of Andijon has killed at least one person. The Emergency Ministry said in a statement that a 57-year-old woman, a patient at the hospital in the Shahrixon district, was killed in the explosion at the medical facility on Feb. 11. (RFE/RL, 02.11.22)

V. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.