6 Things to Know

1. Warnings by Ukrainian officials of a coming Russian offensive have multiplied in the past few days. A Ukraine military intelligence official has told the Kyiv Post that the Russian attack is expected to come around Feb. 24, while an adviser to the Ukrainian military told FT that the offensive could come within 10 days. Better trained and equipped Russian divisions have already joined the effort to break through Ukrainian lines, with attacks being conducted on five fronts in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, NYT and WSJ report. In addition to attacks focused on eastern Ukraine, Russian forces fired 71 cruise missiles, 7 Iranian-supplied Shahed attack drones and 35 S-300 missiles on Feb. 10 at targets across Ukraine. One of these missiles reportedly flew over Moldova, while Romania denied a claim by Kyiv that another flew across its airspace.
2. Putin’s deputy continues to threaten using nuclear weapons, but U.S. fears of such use have diminished. While Putin has recently been somewhat more subtle in his threats to use nuclear weapons, his deputy at the Security Council and ex-president Medvedev continues to have no qualms about rattling Russia’s nuclear saber. “We do not impose any restrictions on ourselves and, depending on the nature of the threats, we are ready to use all types of weapons,” Medvedev said when asked what Russia’s response would be if the Ukrainian military strikes Crimea. In spite of Medvedev’s continued threats, U.S. fears of Russian nuclear weapons use have diminished, according to U.S. officials interviewed by NYT. A more stable battlefield, China's warnings against the use of nuclear weapons and improved communications between Moscow and Washington have contributed to the diminished tensions, according to NYT. Going forward, however, Ukrainian advances on Crimea could lead to heightened nuclear risks, according to Jack Reed, chair of the U.S. Senate’s armed services committee.
3. Ukrainian officials have disclosed that they require coordinates provided or confirmed by the U.S. and its allies for the vast majority of strikes using U.S.-provided rocket systems, according to WP. The disclosure is probably meant to alleviate U.S. concerns that supplies of longer-range attack systems could fuel escalation. The systems, which the U.S. has already agreed to supply, include the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb that has a range nearly twice the capability previously provided. In addition to approving supplies of GLSDBs, U.S. authorities are also considering whether to resume funding top-secret programs that would allow U.S. Special Operations troops to employ Ukrainian operatives to observe Russian military movements, WP reported.
4. Polls show more Americans believe U.S. support to Ukraine is excessive, but they are still outnumbered by those who think the U.S. is doing either just enough or not enough. The share of Americans who say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine has grown from 7% in March 2022 to 26% in January 2023, according to the Pew Research Center. The share of those who say the U.S. is not providing enough has dropped from 42% to 20%, while the share of those who believe the U.S. is providing just about the right volume of aid to Ukraine went from 32% to 31% in that period, according to Pew. Similarly, a January-February poll by WP and ABC News shows that the share of Americans who think the U.S. is doing too much to support Ukraine in its war with Russia grew from 14% in April to 33% in February, while the share of those who think the U.S. is doing too little decreased from 37% to 19%.
5. Russian customs data indicates that China is providing technology that Russia’s military needs to wage the war in Ukraine, despite Western sanctions. Among other items, Chinese companies have shipped navigation equipment for Mi-17 helicopters, telescoping antenna for the RB-531BE vehicle used for communications jamming, parts for Su-35 jet fighters, parts for the 96L6E mobile radar unit and Chinese DJI quadcopters, according to WSJ’s review of the customs data. The U.S. also suspects Turkey of supplying Russia with items that it needs for its military. Both Beijing and Ankara have denied such accusations in the past.
6. The U.S. and France have demanded the "immediate" reopening of the key Lachin corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh, calling the blockade unacceptable. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and her U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken in a telephone call on Feb. 9 "stressed the need to immediately re-establish free circulation along the Lachin corridor," the French Foreign Ministry told AFP. "The grave humanitarian consequences of the current blockading of Nagorno-Karabakh are unacceptable," it added. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also urged the reopening of the corridor on Feb. 7. Since mid-December, Azerbaijanis have been blocking the only road into Karabakh from Armenia, causing the region of 120,000 people to run short of food and medicines. 

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia says it is ready to continue work on creating a safety zone around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The announcement on Feb. 9 came after the head of Rosatom met with U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi in Moscow. Grossi has called for a safety zone to be created to prevent heavy weapons and shelling from causing further damage. Rosatom said its CEO "expressed the readiness of the Russian side to continue work on the implementation of the ... initiative" after the talks with Grossi. (RFE/RL, 02.09.23)
  • The Kremlin said on Feb. 6 that Grossi will not meet Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit to Moscow. (Reuters, 02.06.23)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Moscow is hoping that Pyongyang will solve the problem of forced freeze on the rotation of Russian diplomats in North Korea, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said. (Interfax, 02.10.23)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The JCPOA has no sensible alternatives, and not everything has been lost with regard to it yet, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. The impasse at JCPOA talks is fraught with an uncontrollable escalation, Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said. (Interfax, 02.08.23, Interfax, 02.09.23)
• Moscow and Tehran are moving ahead with plans to build a new factory in the Russian town of Yelabuga, about 600 miles east of Moscow, that could make at least 6,000 Iranian-designed drones for the war in Ukraine, said officials from a country aligned with the U.S. Tehran has rejected the claim. (WSJ, 02.05.23, BNE, 02.07.23)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Germany's prosecutor-general said on Feb. 5 that his office had collected "hundreds" of pieces of evidence showing war crimes by Russian forces in Ukraine, calling for an international effort to bring leaders to justice. (AFP, 02.05.23)
• The U.N.'s emergency relief coordinator, Martin Griffiths, said that nearly 8 million people have fled Ukraine since the beginning of Russia's invasion. (dpa, 02.07.23)
• The United States and Russia faced off on Feb. 4 over a WHO report on the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, with Moscow saying it was politically motivated and Washington calling for it to be swiftly updated. (Reuters, 02.04.23)
• Russia and Ukraine on Feb. 4 announced an exchange of prisoners that led to the release of 63 Russians and 116 Ukrainians and the return of the bodies of Chris Parry and Andrew Bagshaw, who were foreign volunteers involved in humanitarian work in the Donetsk region. The Russian Defense Ministry said the exchange was facilitated "thanks to the mediation of the leadership of the United Arab Emirates." (RFE/RL, 02.04.23, MT/AFP, 02.04.23)
• Last year’s landmark deal to reopen some Ukrainian ports for vital food exports included a requirement that joint teams from Ukraine, Russia, the U.N. and Turkey inspect each ship. Ukrainian traders and authorities say that Russia is purposefully slowing the pace by pushing the bounds of that mandate and limiting personnel. (Bloomberg, 02.07.23)
• Norway's prime minister proposed on Feb. 6 that his country should provide aid to Ukraine of some 75 billion Norwegian krone ($7.3 billion) over a five-year period. (Reuters, 02.06.23)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with leaders of all 27 EU member states on Feb. 9 to ask for financial aid to run and rebuild his country. He also renewed his push for Ukraine’s quick accession to the EU. Zelensky then met his Polish counterpart on Feb. 9 in southeastern Poland to discuss the situation in the region. (NYT, 02.09.23. MT/AFP, 02.09.23, Reuters, 02.10.23)
• Russia appears to be draining the Kakhovka reservoir in Ukraine, imperiling drinking water, agricultural production and safety at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, according to satellite data obtained by NPR. "Even though the decreased water level does not pose an immediate threat to nuclear safety and security, it may become a source of concern if it is allowed to continue," the IAEA's Grossi said. (NPR, 02.10.23)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• On Feb. 10 Russian forces fired 71 cruise missiles, 7 Iranian-supplied Shahed attack drones and 35 S-300 missiles, normally used for air defense, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, chief of Ukraine’s general staff, said. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 61 of the cruise missiles and five of the drones, he added. (FT, 02.10.23)
  • Zaluzhnyi said two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea had crossed Moldovan and Romanian airspace before flying back into Ukraine. The Moldovan Defense Ministry on Feb. 10 confirmed that one missile had crossed its airspace. However, Romania denied a Russian missile had flown over its territory. Two military jets under NATO command were scrambled to intercept the missile, which was fired from a Russian warship in the Black Sea, in case it crossed the border, but they stood down after two minutes, the ministry said. (FT, 02.10.23, RM, 02.10.23)
• Ukrainian officials have multiplied warnings in recent days about a coming Russian offensive.
  • Zelensky mentioned in his nightly video address Feb. 5 the multiple reports that Russia “wants to do something symbolic in February,” and noted “increased pressure in various areas of the front line.”
  • An adviser to the Ukrainian military told FT that Kyiv had obtained “very solid intelligence of intent” by Russia to launch the attack, adding that it could come within 10 days.
  • Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister, said his country expected Russia’s invading forces to launch a new offensive in the Donbas and southern areas later this month.
  • The attack is expected to come around Feb. 24., Andriy Chernyak, an official in Ukraine’s military intelligence, told the Kyiv Post. (FT, 02.06.23, Bloomberg, 02.06.23)
• The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces said Russia was regrouping and attacking on five fronts in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as part of a wider offensive anticipated by Kyiv and its Western allies. Better trained and equipped Russian divisions have joined tens of thousands of newly mobilized soldiers trying to break through well-fortified Ukrainian lines, Ukrainian officials and analysts say. (NYT, 02.09.23, WSJ, 02.07.23)
  • Russian forces have made tactical gains on the northern outskirts of the Donetsk city region of Bakhmut and on the western edge of the same region’s town of Vuhledar, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s Feb. 10 update. The attack on Vuhledar cost Russian forces at least 30 armored vehicles, according to that update. One Russian military blogger, Moscow Calling, said that 31 armored vehicles of Russia’s 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade had been destroyed after they were sent in without the artillery cover. Former defense chief of the self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic Igor Girkin (Strelkov) estimated that “many tens” of the Russian vehicles’ operators were killed, with personnel losses among the Russian marines, special forces operators and infantrymen being “much greater” than that. (al Arabiya, 02.10.23, RM, 02.10.23)
  • Ukrainian forces on Feb. 10 battled advancing Russian forces in the pine forests near the Luhansk region’s town of Kreminna and held increasingly precarious defensive positions in the frozen trenches and battered buildings around the ruined city of Bakhmut, according to Ukrainian officials and military analysts. (NYT, 02.10.23)
  • In its analysis of battlefield developments on Feb. 9, Ukrainian OSINT Telegram channel Deepstate.ua acknowledged “success” achieved by Russian forces at Hryanikyvka-Dvorichne in the Kharkiv region, but insisted that Russian offensives elsewhere failed to make any substantial gains. (RM, 02.10.23)
  • In implicit reference to Russian offensives plans, Alexander  Khodakovsky,  commander of the Vostok Battalion, wrote on Feb. 9 on his Telegram channel that “there is not much to write about” when it comes to the ongoing combat action. “While grandiose plans are being drafted somewhere, horns are locked on the ground.  In some areas, we bumped into the walls of the cities, in others we are crawling. In general, the situation is not very dynamic,” he wrote. (RM, 02.09.23)
    • Exhausted Ukrainian troops complain they are already outnumbered and outgunned, even before Russia has committed the bulk of its roughly 200,000 newly mobilized soldiers. And doctors at hospitals speak of mounting losses as they struggle to care for fighters with gruesome injuries. (NYT, 02.06.23)
• There is growing consensus among Western officials that time is now on Russia’s side and Ukraine has a narrow window to launch a counteroffensive in the spring. (FT, 02.08.23)
• So far, only Germany and Poland have approved substantial deliveries of German-made tanks for Kyiv—around 200 and 74, respectively, including a mixture of new and older models. European allies’ reluctance is raising doubt that enough tanks can arrive in Ukraine in time for an expected Russian offensive, and is leaving Germany’s government in the awkward position of becoming the sole purveyor of a large contingent of Western-made main battle tanks for Ukraine. (WSJ, 02.09.23)
• A shakeup involving the replacement of Ukraine’s defense chief is being delayed as Zelensky’s government braces for a Russian offensive. A day after a senior lawmaker in Zelensky’s party announced that Defense Minister Reznikov will be replaced by Ukraine’s head of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov, a parliamentary official said no decisions on staff changes will be made this week. The delay is due to “risks to the system as a whole,” Mariana Bezuhla, the deputy chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s defense and intelligence committee, said. (Bloomberg, 02.06.23)
  • Ukrainian lawmakers on Feb. 7 appointed Vasyl Malyuk to the post of chief of the Security Service and Ihor Klymenko to the post of interior minister. (RFE/RL, 02.07.23)
• Speaking to Westminster Hall, Zelensky said: “I appeal to you and the world: combat aircraft for Ukraine. Wings for freedom.” Downing Street said U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace had been asked to examine “what jets we might be able to give” Ukraine, but it warned that this was a “medium- to long-term” solution. “It is time to give the Ukrainians the extra equipment they need to defeat Putin and to restore peace to Ukraine. That means longer-range missiles and artillery,” premier Rishi Sunak said. “It means more tanks. It means planes.” (FT, 02.08.23)
  • Zelensky extracted promises from the leaders of Poland and Slovakia to send fighter jets to Ukraine at an EU summit where he sought to cajole allies to step up their military aid. (FT, 02.09.23)
  • Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Olha Stefanishyna has pleaded with its allies for ammunition and artillery “immediately.” (FT, 02.10.23)
• Ukrainian officials said they require coordinates provided or confirmed by the United States and its allies for the vast majority of strikes using its advanced U.S.-provided rocket systems. One senior Ukrainian official said Ukrainian forces almost never launch the advanced weapons without specific coordinates provided by U.S. military personnel from a base elsewhere in Europe. "According to our maps and software, a point will have one set of coordinates," Maj. Gen. Andriy Malinovsky said. "But when we give this target to partners for analysis, the coordinates are different. Why? Because the Americans and NATO countries have access to military satellites.” (WP, 02.09.23)
• Elon Musk said last week on Twitter that SpaceX was “not allowing Starlink to be used for long-range drone strikes.” And on Feb. 8, Gwynne Shotwell, Starlink’s president and chief operating officer, said that Starlink was “never meant to be weaponized.” SpaceX has come under fire from Mykhaylo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, for comments by a company executive who said steps had been taken to curb the Starlink satellite Internet service because of the way Ukraine is using it in its fight against Russia. (RFE/RL, 02.10.23, NYT, 02.09.23)
• Ukraine will receive ground-launched, small diameter bombs (GLSDB) as part of a new $2.17 billion aid package announced by the Biden administration. The munitions have a range of roughly 95 miles, nearly twice the capability previously provided by the U.S. government. This will enable them instead to target command posts, ammunition depots and other Russian military facilities in occupied parts of Ukraine. (WP, 02.10.23)
  • Ukraine will not use longer-range weapons pledged by the United States to hit Russian territory and will only target Russian units in occupied Ukrainian territory, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said Feb. 5. (Reuters, 02.05.23)
• The Pentagon is urging Congress to resume funding a pair of top-secret programs in Ukraine suspended ahead of Russia's invasion last year, according to current and former U.S. officials. If approved, the move would allow American Special Operations troops to employ Ukrainian operatives to observe Russian military movements and counter disinformation. It remains unclear if the Biden administration would allow U.S. commandos back into Ukraine to oversee them.. (WP, 02.10.23)
• Berlin announced on Feb. 7 that Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark would supply Ukraine with up to 178 older-generation Leopard 1 tanks. (FT, 02.08.23)
• Morten Brandtzæg, chief executive of Norway’s Nammo, which makes ammunition and shoulder-fired weapons, estimates Ukraine has been firing an estimated 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day, which he said is similar to the annual orders of a smaller European state before the war. (FT, 02.07.23) 
• Dutch open-source group Oryx reported that Russian forces have lost 1,012 destroyed tanks in Ukraine with an additional 546 tanks captured by Ukrainian forces. Oryx reported that these combined losses represent roughly half the tanks that Russian forces committed to Ukraine at the start of the invasion. (ISW, 02.09.23)
• The Mozart Group, one of the most prominent, private American military organizations in Ukraine, has collapsed under a cloud of accusations ranging from financial improprieties to alcohol-addled misjudgments. (NYT, 02.07.23)
• Yevgeny Prigozhin has claimed his Wagner group will no longer recruit prisoners to fight in Ukraine. (FT, 02.09.23)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• A review of Russian customs data provided by the C4AD non-profit indicates that China is providing technology that Moscow's military needs to prosecute the war in Ukraine despite Western sanctions. Among other items, Chinese companies have shipped navigation equipment for Mi-17 helicopters, telescoping antenna for the RB-531BE vehicle used for communications jamming; parts for Su-35 jet fighters, parts for 96L6E mobile radar unit and Chinese DJI quadcopters. (WSJ, 02.04.23)
  • "The allegation that China provides 'aid' to Russia has no factual basis, but is purely speculative and deliberately hyped up," Liu Pengyu, China's spokesman at its Washington embassy, said. (WSJ, 02.04.23)
• Exports of computer chips that are used in weapons and associated components to Russia were more than cut in half after the U.S. and its allies first imposed strict export restrictions, according to customs records. But those levels quickly began to rise, and by October hit nearly $33 million, just shy of the $35 million monthly level Russia averaged since the U.S. started targeting Russia with sanctions in 2014. (WSJ, 02.04.23) 
• The United States is stepping up efforts to persuade partner nations that have not joined Western sanctions on Russia to crack down on commercial activities in their countries that could be helping Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, U.S. officials said. Those efforts include pointing out to foreign governments transactions that the United States suspects are helping Russia evade sanctions and threatening new American sanctions on people and companies that the United States believes are fueling Russia’s war machine, the officials said. The new U.S. efforts have focused on Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. (NYT, 02.04.23, WSJ, 02.04.23) 
• Turkish companies last year exported tens of millions of dollars worth of machinery, electronics, spare parts and other items that Russia needs for its military. At least 13 Turkish firms exported a total of roughly $18.5 million worth of items, including plastics, rubber products and vehicles, to at least 10 Russian companies sanctioned by the U.S. for their role in Russia's war in Ukraine, the data show. (WSJ, 02.04.23)
• The United States has warned Turkey in recent days about the export to Russia of chemicals, microchips and other products that can be used in Moscow's war effort in Ukraine, and it could move to enforce existing bans. (Reuters, 02.04.23)
• The U.S. is preparing to impose a 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum as soon as this week to keep pressure on Moscow as the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine nears, according to people familiar with the situation. (Bloomberg, 02.06.23)
• The EU should consider requiring banks to report the value of frozen Russian central bank assets if it wants to use sanctioned funds to help pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, according to the bloc’s lawyers. Estimates suggest $258 billion could be located, but that’s based on information the Bank of Russia gave in a 2022 report. (Bloomberg, 02.10.23)
• British American Tobacco’s chief executive Jack Bowles said efforts to offload its Russian business to a local partner could spill into 2024, underlining the difficulties that companies face as they seek to exit the country. (FT, 02.09.23)
• Carlsberg wants to insert a buyback clause when selling its large Russian business that would offer the world’s third-largest brewer a way of ultimately returning to the ostracized country. (FT, 02.07.23)
• Latvia’s security services are probing whether sanctioned Russian billionaire Petr Aven should be stripped of his Latvian citizenship under a law adopted in response to the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 02.06.23)
• U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland announced on Feb. 3 that the frozen assets of a Russian oligarch will be transferred to Ukraine. The assets were seized after the indictment of oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev on sanctions-evasion charges. (RFE/RL, 02.04.23)

• The U.K. has frozen more Russian assets in the latest round of sanctions against Moscow, targeting military equipment providers to Putin. Six entities, including helicopter-parts maker RT-Komplekt and drone manufacturer CST, and eight individuals are the latest target aimed at weakening Putin’s regime, the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office said. (FT, 02.08.23)
• Putin gave his approval for Mercedes-Benz Group AG to sell its Russia-based financial-services subsidiaries, bringing the German auto maker a step closer to selling its Russian businesses after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine last year. (WSJ, 02.06.23)
• The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Feb. 8 that it had imposed sanctions on 77 more U.S. nationals, including the governors of several U.S. states and some of their relatives. Others targeted also included the children of Sens. Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer as well as of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. (RFE/RL, 02.08.23)
• Estonian Ambassador Margus Laidre has left Moscow as requested by Russia's Foreign Ministry, Russian media reports said Feb. 7. (Current Time, 02.07.23)
• International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach has told Ukraine that its calls for a boycott of the 2024 Paris Games over the possible participation of Russian competitors goes against Olympic "principles." Zelensky took part in an online meeting attended by 35 ministers to discuss demands that Russian and Belarusian athletes be banned from the 2024 Olympics. (AFP, 02.10.23, Reuters, 02.10.23)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that before the Russian-Ukrainian talks were interrupted in May 2022, the parties had prepared 17 drafts of a peace agreement. According to him, Putin was ready to negotiate a ceasefire, but Ukraine withdrew from the negotiations. According to Bennett, during his mediation efforts Zelensky agreed to give up the idea that Ukraine would join NATO, and Putin dropped a vow to seek Ukraine’s disarmament in order to end the war. “Everything I did was coordinated with the U.S., Germany and France,” he said. (Jpost, 02.05.23, Kommersant, 02.05.23)
• Bennett said that during his visit to Russia last year he raised with Putin the issue of Zelensky and said that the Ukrainian leader wanted to meet with him. “He was the nicest person in the world up until then, suddenly he gave me a cold look and said ‘they’re Nazis, they’re warmongers, I won’t meet him.’ I asked: ‘Are you planning to kill Zelensky?’ He [Putin] said: ‘I won’t kill Zelensky.’ I then said to him: ‘I have to understand that you’re giving me your word that you won’t kill Zelensky.’ He said: ‘I’m not going to kill Zelensky.’” (Jpost, 02.05.23, Guardian, 02.05.23)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Budapest "belongs to the peace camp" after meeting Zelensky at a European Union summit in Brussels. (RFE/RL, 02.10.23)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• In his State of the Union address, U.S. President Joe Biden said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was a test that the U.S. and its NATO allies had passed, and vowed again to stand with Zelensky as long as needed. “Putin’s invasion has been a test for the ages, a test for America, a test for the world,” Biden said. “We united NATO and built a global coalition. We stood against Putin’s aggression,” he said. "We stood with the Ukrainian people," he said, as Kyiv's ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, looked on from the gallery. (Bloomberg, 02.07.23, Whitehouse.gov, 02.07.23, VOA, 02.08.23)
  • Amid reports he might travel to Ukraine for the first time, Biden appeared to rule that possibility out. “There’s a possibility I may go to Poland, but that’s all,” Biden told reporters. Biden will travel to Poland on Feb. 20-22 to mark the one-year anniversary since Russia invaded Ukraine. (FT, 02.10.23, The Hill, 02.10.23)
• Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Feb. 7 that he's ready to restart stalled negotiations over Sweden's application to join NATO as soon as Turkey is. (Reuters, 02.07.23)
• U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to discuss Washington's future support for Ukraine when she travels to the Munich Security Conference, scheduled to begin on Feb. 16. (Reuters, 02.07.23)
• The share of Americans who say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine has grown from 7% in March 2022 to 26% in January 2023, according to the Pew Research Center. The share who say the U.S. is not providing enough has dropped from 42% to 20%, while the share of those who believe the U.S. is providing just about the right volume of aid to Ukraine went from 32% to 31% in that period, according to Pew. Similarly, a January-February poll released last week by the Washington Post and ABC News shows that the share of Americans who think the U.S. is doing too much to support Ukraine in its war with Russia grew from 14% in April to 33% in February, while the share of those who think the U.S. is doing too little decreased from 37% to 19%. (RM, 02.09.23)
•  January-February poll conducted for Washington Post and ABC News and released this week shows the share of Americans who think the U.S. is doing too much to support Ukraine in its war with Russia increased from 14% in April to 33% in February while the share of those who think the U.S. is doing too little deceased from 37% to 19% over the same period. Meanwhile, 38% approve of Biden’s handling the situation involving Ukraine and Russia and 48% disapprove. (RM, 02.06.23)
• Nearly one year into the war in Ukraine, Americans’ support for Kyiv holds steady, according to a Gallup poll released on Feb. 6. The poll shows 65% of U.S. adults polled want the United States to support Ukraine in reclaiming its territory, even if that results in a prolonged conflict. Thirty-one percent said they would rather see the United States work to end the war quickly, even if this allows Russia to keep territory captured in its invasion. The data is from a Gallup web survey conducted Jan. 3-22. (RFE/RL, 02.06.23)

• NATO fighter jets scrambled 570 times to monitor Russian military flights in international airspace last year. That meant the number of such intercepts nearly doubled compared to 2021, a NATO spokesman said. (dpa, 02.09.23)
• Channels of telephone communication between Russia and NATO remain open but normal diplomatic relations between the two sides are out of the question, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said Feb. 10. (Reuters, 02.10.23)

• The U.S. has approved the sale of up to $10 billion worth of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), rockets and long-range missiles to Poland as the nation moves to replenish and modernize its weaponry while sending its existing systems to Ukraine. (FT, 02.08.23)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russia sold 38.5 billion rubles of Chinese renminbi and gold from its rainy-day National Welfare Fund last month and plans to issue 800 billion rubles in local bonds in the first quarter of 2023 as part of a move to raise this year’s domestic borrowing to 2.5 trillion rubles from a previously planned 1.7 trillion rubles. (FT, 02.07.23)
• New routes for shipping Russian gas to China are being explored, and there is extensive potential for increasing oil exports to the China, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said. (Interfax, 02.10.23)
• The volume of Russian agricultural exports to China in 2022 increased by 44% as China became the largest buyer of domestic agricultural products, according to a statement from Russia’s Federal Center for Export Development Agroexport under the Ministry of Agriculture. (TASS, 02.09.23)
• China remains neutral in regard to the conflict in Ukraine, but it understands Russia’s concerns over NATO’s eastward expansion and the plans to include Ukraine in the alliance, which have become the premise for the current conflict, Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye said. (TASS, 02.07.23)
• Chinese President Xi Jinping told the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe he probably wouldn’t have joined the Communist Party if he’d been born in the U.S., but would have been a member of the Democratic or Republican parties. (Bloomberg, 02.08.23)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Concerns remain over Russia using a nuclear weapon, but tensions have abated since the fall. Several factors explain why, officials said: A more stable battlefield, China's warnings against the use of nuclear weapons, improved communications between Moscow and Washington and an increased role of the IAEA in Ukraine have contributed to a measure of stability. (NYT, 02.04.23)
  • A call in late October between Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and his counterpart, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia's chief of the general staff, also relieved tensions. In the call, according to two U.S. officials, Gerasimov outlined a use of nuclear weapons consistent with Washington's understanding of Russia's nuclear doctrine. Also, CIA director William Burns met with his counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, the director of Russia's foreign intelligence service, at the time in Turkey to warn Russia about its nuclear threats. (NYT, 02.04.23)
• ''It is a risk we cannot afford to take lightly; on the other hand, the purpose of the saber rattling is to intimidate us, as well as our European allies and the Ukrainians themselves,'' Burns said. ''So I think we have to stay on an even keel in weighing those threats carefully but also not being intimidated by them.'' (NYT, 02.04.23)
• Jack Reed, Democratic chair of the U.S. Senate’s armed services committee, said the collapse of the Russian army, Ukrainian advances on the annexed peninsula of Crimea or attacks on Russia would all prompt heightened nuclear risks. “Red lines are an interesting issue, but the lines are never quite that bright or obvious,” he added. “I wish it was almost like arithmetic, like add one plus one, you get two. [But] it’s not that easy.” (FT, 02.08.23)
• “We do not impose any restrictions on ourselves and, depending on the nature of the threats, we are ready to use all types of weapons. In accordance with our doctrinal documents, including the Basic Principles of Nuclear Deterrence,” Medvedev said when asked what Russia’s response would be if the Ukrainian military strikes Crimea. (Telegram, 02.04.23)
• Medvedev said: “International law respects the will of the people. Crimea is [Russia]. Attacking Crimea means attacking Russia and escalating the conflict. The Ukrainian gang of drug addicts must understand that such attacks will be met with inevitable retaliation using weapons of any kind.” (Twitter, 02.04.23)
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Feb. 8 rejected demands from Washington to resume the inspections of its nuclear weapons facilities outlined in the New START treaty, accusing the United States of “hostile” actions. (NYT, 02.08.23)
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Feb. 6 that he discussed the New START treaty with new United States Ambassador Lynne Tracy. He added that Russia was committed to the treaty but that no date had been set for new talks, citing the conflict in Ukraine. (Reuters, 02.06.23)
• P5 officials have met in Dubai in recent days to continue discussions on their positions on risk reduction, identifying common ground and practical measures to take forward as a collective will be difficult, according to a FP contributor. The meeting of the diplomats yielded no substantial results, according to Kommersant. (RM, 02.07.23)

Counterterrorism:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Feb. 7 pledged assistance to West African states battling jihadists, as Moscow seeks to expand its influence on a continent in a diplomatic tug-of-war between global powers. Lavrov hailed the alliance that has been forged between Moscow and Bamako in fighting extremists on his first visit to Mali, which Russia's top diplomat described as "historic." (MT/AFP, 02.07.23)

Conflict in Syria:

• The only crossing between Syria and Turkey that is approved by the United Nations for transporting international aid into Syria is closed because of earthquake damage to roads around it, according to U.N. officials, complicating an already fraught response to the unfolding humanitarian crisis. (NYT, 02.07.23)
• Turkey is trying to get a green light from Russia to use new border crossings for delivering aid to earthquake survivors in northwest Syria, officials with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 02.10.23)

Cyber security:

• The United States and Britain have sanctioned seven Russian citizens over their alleged membership in the notorious cybercrime gang Trickbot. (MT/AFP, 02.09.23)
• Russian citizen Denis Dubnikov pleaded guilty on Feb. 6 to one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering, according to the U.S. District Court of Oregon. U.S. prosecutors accuse Dubnikov and his co-conspirators of laundering $400,000 in payments from victims of Ryuk, a ransomware gang believed to have extracted $70 million from individuals and companies around the world, including in the United States. (RFE/RL, 02.07.23)
• In his State of the Union address, Biden devoted just two paragraphs to online privacy, and largely focused on privacy for children online. (WP, 02.08.23)

Energy exports from CIS:

• In December, Russian oil export revenues were $12.6 billion, nearly $4 billion less than a year earlier, according to IEA estimates. That's largely because Russian oil companies have to offer increasingly large discounts to a shrinking pool of buyers. The trend appears to be persisting. The Russian government's revenue from oil and gas production and exports fell in January by 46% from the same month last year, the Finance Ministry said on Feb. 6. (NYT, 02.09.23)
• Europe on Feb. 5 imposed a ban on Russian diesel fuel and other refined oil products, slashing energy dependency on Moscow and seeking to further crimp the Kremlin's fossil-fuel earnings as punishment for invading Ukraine. The ban comes along with a price cap agreed by the G7 democracies. The goal is to reduce the profits funding Moscow's budget and war. Europe has already banned Russian coal and most crude oil, while Moscow has cut off most shipments of natural gas. (AP, 02.05.23)

• Russia will cut oil production from next month. The cut of 500,000 barrels a day, the equivalent of almost 5% of Russia’s production, or 0.5% of world supply, was a response to the “destructive energy policy of the countries of the collective West,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Feb. 10. Novak also said there were risks that Russia's oil production could drop in 2023, under the pressure of a European Union embargo and a G7 price cap on Russian oil. (Reuters, 02.10.23, FT, 02.10.23)
  • One area where the bloc could be vulnerable is for diesel. Until an import ban came in a few days ago, Russia was Europe’s largest supplier of the fuel, and re-routing global supply lines to ensure everyone has enough supply could be more challenging than for crude oil. (Bloomberg, 02.10.23)
• Price assessments by Platts, a unit of S&P Global, show a margin of more than $20 between a barrel of Russia’s Urals crude lifted in the Baltic region and the same oil delivered to the west coast of India. On a flow that’s now running at about 1.5 million barrels a day, that works out at $1 billion a month. (Bloomberg, 02.10.23)
• Just a day after Western powers slapped new sanctions on Russia, top executives from the OPEC+ producers’ oil and gas industry rushed to its biggest potential customer—India. From the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin to the chairman of Novatek Leonid Mikhelson, the Russian delegation was out in force in Bengaluru for India Energy Week. The top executives of Novatek and Rosneft also met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (Bloomberg, 02.07.23)
• Russia blamed the U.S. for explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipelines and warned of a response from Moscow, after American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published an article alleging the Biden administration had attacked the gas transportation network. The Kremlin on Feb. 9 endorsed Hersh’s post. (Bloomberg, 02.09.23, MT/AFP, 02.09.23)
• Deep cuts to Russian gas exports in retaliation for Western support for Ukraine drove the European benchmark price above €300 a megawatt hour in August, more than 10 times its normal level. But in recent months it has tumbled back to about €50/MWh. (FT, 02.10.23)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The Russian Foreign Ministry warned the new U.S. ambassador to Moscow on Feb. 7 that it would begin expelling her staff if the embassy continued criticizing the war in Ukraine on its social media accounts. (MT/AFP, 02.07.23)
• About 12,500 Russians entered the U.S. through ports of entry with Mexico between October and December. Most are expected to ask for asylum once they settle in the U.S. About 5,000 Russians crossed through U.S. ports of entry during the same period a year ago. (WSJ, 02.05.23)
• Moscow says it will pursue arbitration after accusing the United States of failing to issue visas to Russian delegates to the United Nations. (Reuters, 02.08.23)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Putin will deliver a state-of-the-union address on Feb. 21, three days before the first anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin said on Feb. 10. (FT, 02.10.23)
• Russia’s budget deficit reached 1.76 trillion rubles ($25 billion) in January as the Kremlin boosted defense spending and Western sanctions began to hit the country’s oil and gas revenue. Revenue from oil and gas fell 46% year on year to 426 billion rubles, the finance ministry said on Feb. 6, blaming the drop on falling prices for Urals, its main crude export blend, and a decline in natural gas exports. Urals has traded at a significant discount to the global Brent benchmark since the conflict began in late February 2022. Expenditure ballooned 59% year on year to 3.12 trillion rubles in January 2023, amid largely classified plans to increase defense spending to 3.5 trillion rubles this year. Ukrainian officials have warned in recent days that they believe Russia is set to launch a major offensive in the coming weeks to mark the first anniversary of the conflict. (FT, 02.07.23)
• Slumping energy revenues and soaring expenditures pushed Russia's federal budget to a deficit of 1.76 trillion rubles ($24.78 billion) in January amid Western sanctions and the cost of the war in Ukraine. The Finance Ministry said on Feb. 6 that oil and gas revenues were 46.4% lower in January than in the same month last year. Overall revenue for the month was down 35.1%, while spending was 58.7% higher. The ministry cited lower prices for Russian oil and lower volumes of natural gas exports as the primary reasons. Sanctions have forced Moscow to sell oil and gas at a discount. (Reuters, 02.06.23)
• Russia could increase taxes for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine to help plug a hole in the state budget, independent media outlet The Bell reported Feb. 8, citing sources familiar with the discussions. The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs has proposed raising the current 20% income tax on Russian companies by 0.5 percentage points, according to The Bell. (MT/AFP, 02.08.23)
• Russia’s central bank held its key interest rate at 7.5% on Feb. 10, citing slowing inflation and signs of an economic recovery after Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine plunged the country into recession last year. The central bank expects inflation for 2023 to range between 5 and 7% and to sink to its prewar 4% target by 2024. (FT, 02.10.23)
  • Putin’s government is pressuring the Bank of Russia to be more upbeat about the outlook for the economy and signal it’s ready to loosen monetary policy as his invasion of Ukraine heads for its second year. (Bloomberg, 02.07.23) 
• The Russian government released the official results of its 2021 census at the end of last year, and they showed significant declines in numbers for many of the country's non-Russian ethnic minorities. The number of ethnic Tatars—the country's largest ethnic minority—purportedly fell by nearly 600,000 people. The Mari ethnic group declined by 22.6%; the Chuvash population fell by 25%; and the number of Udmurts declined by 30%. (RFE/RL, 02.05.23)
• Foreign tourism to Russia fell below 4% of its pre-pandemic levels in 2022 as the country faced international condemnation over its invasion of Ukraine, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR) has said. A mere 200,100 tourists traveled to Russia last year, according to ATOR’s breakdown of FSB border service data. That marks a 96.1% decrease from the 5.1 million tourists who had visited Russia in 2019, before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. (MT/AFP, 02.09.23)
• The number of Russian nationals who have renounced their citizenship reached a three-year high of 4,306 in 2022, Russia’s Foreign Ministry told media Feb. 8. (MT/AFP, 02.08.23) That's reportedly more than the number of individuals who renounced U.S. citizenship in 2021 (2,427), but less than the number of individuals who renounced U.S. citizenship in 2020 (6,705).¹
• Russia’s lower-house State Duma will form a task force next week to examine ways to use the Criminal Code to punish prominent exiled Russians for their dissent, State Duma deputy Yelena Yampolskaya told Izvestia. (MT/AFP, 02.06.23)
• A court in Moscow sentenced the first person to have been charged under Russia’s wartime law against spreading “knowingly false information” to nine years in jail in absentia on Feb. 6, the independent broadcaster Sota reported. Veronika Belotserkovskaya, a Ukrainian-born Russian journalist and the owner of a culinary school in France where she lives, was among the first people to be charged with spreading “false information” about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 02.06.23)
• A prosecutor has asked a court in the Siberian city of Barnaul to convict and sentence journalist Maria Ponomarenko to nine years in prison on a charge of discrediting Russia’s armed forces with "fake" social media posts about the war in Ukraine. (Current Time, 02.07.23)
• Moscow municipal lawmaker Lyusya Shtein, who is also a member of the Pussy Riot protest group, has been charged in absentia with discrediting the Russian armed forces. (RFE/RL, 02.08.23)
• A prosecutor has asked a court in the Siberian region of Kemerovo to convict and sentence a former correspondent for RFE/RL's Siberia.Realities project Andrei Novashov to 11 months of correctional work over social-media posts he made saying Russian forces attacked civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.09.23)
• A Crimean Tatar activist, Dzhemil Gafarov, who along with four other activists from Ukraine's Russian-occupied Crimea was sentenced to 13 years in prison on terrorism charges in January, has died in Russian custody. (RFE/RL, 02.10.23)
• The last prime minister of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) within the Soviet Union, Ivan Silayev, has died at the age of 92. (RFE/RL, 02.09.23)
• Outspoken Kremlin critic, journalist and writer Oleg Panfilov has died at the age of 65 in Tbilisi. (RFE/RL, 02.10.23)
• The Moscow City Court has upheld the decision of a lower court to withdraw the licenses of the Novaya gazeta newspaper and its Novaya rasskaz-gazeta magazine. (RFE/RL, 02.07.23)
• The head of Moscow’s state-run Tretyakov Gallery Arts Museum, Zelfira Tregulova, has left her post amid accusations of "non-patriotism." The Culture Ministry said Tregulova's contract had expired and the museum will now be led by Yelena Pronicheva, the daughter of the former deputy chief of the FSB, Vladimir Pronichev. (RFE/RL, 02.09.23)
• Lawmakers in the Russian region of Chechnya have approved a bill on changing the Chechen version of the official title of the region's authoritarian leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, into what can be translated as "father of the people." (RFE/RL, 02.10.23)

Defense and aerospace:

• Bomb shelters across Russia are undergoing systematic inspections and repairs following a Kremlin order to upgrade the country’s crumbling Soviet-era infrastructure. (MT/AFP, 02.06.23)
• Putin held a meeting with the Supervisory Board of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives on Feb. 9 and instructed the agency to support federal subjects in developing the production of unmanned aircraft systems. (ISW, 02.09.23)
• Medvedev said during a visit to a tank factory on Feb. 9 that Moscow would increase production of tanks in response to Western arms supplies to Ukraine. (Reuters, 02.09.23)
• A 22-year-old son of the Russian Deputy Head of the Federal Agency for State Property Management won a contract to supply the Russian military with new uniforms. (ISW, 02.09.23)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The Russian authorities have invited tenders for a contract worth 830 million rubles ($11.3 million) for the provision of facial recognition technology at some of its land borders. (MT/AFP, 02.09.23)
• The Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, a strong supporter of Putin, worked for Soviet intelligence while living in Switzerland in the 1970s, Swiss newspapers reported, citing declassified archives. (MT/AFP, 02.06.23)
• A court in Russia has sentenced Sergei Furgal, the former governor of the Far Eastern Khabarovsk region, to 22 years in prison after a jury convicted him of attempted murder and ordering two killings in 2004 and 2005, charges the former governor has steadfastly denied. (RFE/RL, 02.10.23)
• Russian Army officer Igor Mangushev, who gained prominence last year for speaking on stage holding what he said was the skull of a Ukrainian soldier while calling for the death of "as many Ukrainian soldiers as necessary," has died in a hospital after sustaining a gunshot wound to his head. (RFE/RL, 02.08.23)
• On Feb. 9, the Sverdlov district court sentenced the former warden of the IK-6 penal colony, Alexei Agapov, as well as Alexander Mednikov and Anton Yerokhin, after convicting them of involvement in beating, torturing and raping an inmate with Central Asian roots, Tahirjon Bakiev, in January 2021. (RFE/RL, 02.09.23)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Lavrov arrived in Iraq on Feb. 5 for talks on energy and food security in view of the Ukraine conflict, an Iraqi Foreign Ministry spokesman said. He landed in Baghdad late in the day at the head of a large delegation that included "oil and gas companies and investors," Ahmad al-Sahhaf told AFP. On Feb. 6, Lavrov invited his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein to visit Russia at a joint press conference following talks. Lavrov was also expected to meet with Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Mohammed al-Halbousi, chairman of Iraq's Council of Representatives. In addition, Lavrov was scheduled to meet with the country’s former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. (AFP, 02.05.23, TASS, 02.06.23)
• Lavrov returned to Africa Feb. 6 for the second time in 10 days to visit Mali, Sudan and Mauritania as the long-serving top diplomat focuses on the region amid a scarcity of international contacts since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. In Mali, Lavrov held talks with its junta leaders seeking Moscow's help in battling an Islamist insurgency. In Sudan, he said Russia is awaiting Sudan’s legislative approval for a planned naval base on the Red Sea. An agreement already signed needs ratification, Lavrov told reporters Feb. 9 in Khartoum. (Bloomberg, 02.09.23, MT/AFP, 02.07.23, Bloomberg, 02.06.23)
• Putin expressed “the most sincere condolences” to his Turkish and Syrian counterparts after the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that killed tens of thousands. (MT/AFP, 02.06.23)
• TikTok identified a Russian disinformation network spreading war propaganda about Ukraine to more than a hundred thousand European users over the summer, the company disclosed on Feb. 9. (Bloomberg, 02.09.23)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers has greenlighted the preliminary phases of building two $5 billion Westinghouse AP 1000 reactors at the Kmelnitsky nuclear power plant once the Russian invasion ends. (Bellona, 02.03.23)
• There are “strong indications” that Putin gave the green light to provide Russian separatists in Ukraine with the missiles used to down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, according to international investigators, who nevertheless decided to suspend their probe into the incident. (Bloomberg, 02.08.23)
• Comments made by Roger Waters, co-founder of the rock band Pink Floyd, were denounced by Ukraine on Feb. 8 after the British musician told the U.N. Security Council that Russia's invasion of its neighbor was "not unprovoked." (RFE/RL, 02.08.23)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• France and the United States have demanded the "immediate" reopening of the key Lachin corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh, calling it unacceptable. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and her U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken in a telephone call Feb. 9 "stressed the need to immediately re-establish free circulation along the Lachin corridor," the French Foreign Ministry said. "The grave humanitarian consequences of the current blockading of Nagorno-Karabakh are unacceptable," it added. Since mid-December, Azerbaijanis have been blocking the only road into Karabakh from Armenia, causing the region of 120,000 people to run short of food and medicines. (AFP, 02.10.23)
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Feb. 7 called for the reopening of a key corridor to the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, after talks with her Armenian counterpart. Baerbock, whose country leads a European Union mission in the region, told reporters that the escalating humanitarian situation made it essential that the blockade by Azerbaijan "end immediately." "The supermarket shelves are almost empty, medication is lacking ... family members are stuck in Armenia and can't get back to their loved ones, schoolchildren have to freeze in these icy temperatures because the energy supplies are cut off," Baerbock said. (AFP, 02.07.23)
• Ukraine has expressed concerns over a court decision in Tbilisi rejecting an appeal to release former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who holds Ukrainian citizenship, from prison on health grounds. (RFE/RL, 02.07.23)
• The Estonian intelligence service said in its annual report on Feb. 8 that Russia remains capable of exerting “credible military pressure” in the Baltic region, presenting a medium- and long-term security risk. (Reuters, 02.08.23)
• Poland is to close Bobrowniki, a key border crossing with Belarus, until further notice, the Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said Feb. 9 (Reuters, 02.09.23)
• Moldova’s prime minister Natalia Gavrilita has resigned citing a lack of support for her government as it struggles with the fallout from Russia’s war against neighboring Ukraine, and efforts by Moscow to destabilize the country. Dorin Recean, a former interior minister and senior aide, will replace Gavrilita as prime minister. (FT, 02.10.23, Bloomberg, 02.10.23)
• Moldova's intelligence service has confirmed statements made by Zelensky alleging that Russia has acted to destabilize the country. (RFE/RL, 02.09.23)
• Kazakh Foreign Ministry officials have rejected a Russian court's summoning of editors of the Arbat.media news website over an article it published about Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Ministry officials told Arbat.media on Feb. 6 that the decision last month by the Lenin district court in Russia's Vladimir region "has no legal force in Kazakhstan.” (RFE/RL, 02.06.23)
• The U.S. Treasury Department plans to lift sanctions imposed on the former Russian Sberbank subsidiary in Kazakhstan, Bereke Bank. (RFE/RL, 02.08.23)
• A court in Kazakhstan's southern city of Taraz has posthumously convicted five men who were shot dead during unprecedented anti-government protests in January 2022. (RFE/RL, 02.08.23)
• Uzbekistan's Anti-Corruption Agency said on Feb. 10 that the chief of the State Pharmacy Agency, Sardor Kariev, and several of his subordinates have been arrested over the deaths of 20 children in December allegedly caused by a medicine imported from India. (RFE/RL, 02.10.23)
• Uzbekistan's State Security Service said on Feb. 7 that its department in the southeastern region of Samarkand had arrested a 27-year-old resident of the city of Bukhara on a charge of organizing illegal immigration to the United States via Mexico and the European Union. (RFE/RL, 02.08.23)
• A court in Uzbekistan's southwestern city of Bukhara has started the trial of another 39 Karakalpak activists accused of taking part in unsanctioned anti-government protests in the Central Asian nation's Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan last year. (RFE/RL, 02.07.23)
• Activist Polat Shamshetov, who on Jan. 31 was handed a prison term along with 21 other people for taking part in unprecedented anti-government protests in Uzbekistan's Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan last year, has died in custody. (RFE/RL, 02.06.23)
• Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security said on Feb. 10 it had discovered a tunnel along the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border that is purportedly being used for illegal border crossings and smuggling. (RFE/RL, 02.10.23)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

 

Footnotes

1. Here and elsewhere italicized text represents contextual commentary by RM staff.