This Week's Highlights

• In an unprecedented move, the usually slow-moving International Criminal Court has opened an immediate investigation of possible war crimes by Russia in Ukraine, according to The New York Times, while the U.N. and other international bodies have launched their own inquiries. ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan said on March 2 that he would fast-track the investigation following requests from 39 member countries.  
• With more than 1 million refugees driven out of Ukraine as Russian forces shell cities and accelerate their push to cut Ukraine off from its coastline, Russian and Ukrainian delegations agreed on March 3 on a mechanism to allow “humanitarian corridors” to be created for the evacuation of civilians trapped in areas under Russian attack, The Washington Post reports. 
• Russian forces in Ukraine seized Europe's biggest nuclear power plant on March 4 in an assault that caused alarm around the world, stirring up memories of the Chernobyl catastrophe. An official at Energoatom, the Ukrainian state nuclear plant operator, told Reuters fighting had ceased and radiation levels were normal, but his organization no longer had contact with the Zaporizhzhia plant's managers or control over its nuclear material. 
• Following a 90-minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 3, French President Emmanuel Macron said he believes "the worst is to come" in Ukraine, AFP reports. An aide to Macron said that Putin wants "to seize control of the whole of Ukraine” and plans to “carry out his operation to 'de-Nazify' Ukraine to the end." The following day Putin called for the “normalization” of relations with other states, saying Moscow has “absolutely no ill intentions with regard to our neighbors,” per The Washington Post. 
• The U.S. and Russian militaries have established a special line to communicate with one another through the crisis spawned by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, two U.S. defense officials told The Washington Post on March 3, highlighting the significance of regional tensions. The line will be used to ensure no there are miscalculations or accidents that occur outside Ukraine, where President Biden has promised U.S. troops will not be fighting. 
• Russia stepped up its information war over the conflict in Ukraine this week. Parliament on March 4 passed a law imposing a jail term of up to 15 years for spreading intentionally "fake" news about the military, Reuters reports. And Russia’s media regulator said it will block access to Meta-owned Facebook, according to CNBC. Earlier, the regulator said media can only publish official government reports about the conflict in Ukraine, with journalism organizations reportedly banned from using the words “war,” “invasion” and “attack” and several prominent independent outlets effectively shutting down, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists and others. 
• Western sanctions imposed as a result of the invasion have battered Russia’s economy, leaving collateral damage among both global businesses and ordinary Russians. Allied foreign ministers met on March 4 to assess the sanctions and to discuss their impact and potential further measures down the line, writes the Financial Times. The White House on March 4 said the U.S. economy is in a position strong enough that it could likely withstand the impact of a U.S. ban on the import of Russian oil, which is still on the table, according to CNBC. Russians, meanwhile, are trying to leave the country via a dwindling number of available routes, sometimes facing lengthy interrogations at airports, according to first-person accounts published by the MediaZona news website March 2, The Moscow Times reports. 
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to put further pressure on chip manufacturing, as a squeeze on the supply of rare gases critical to the production process adds to pandemic-related disruptions. Ukraine supplies about 50% of the world’s neon gas, which is indispensable in chip production, and 40% of krypton, which is used in semiconductor production, the Financial Times reports, citing analysts. Prices for the gases are looking to rise steeply: Following Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, neon prices rose by at least 600%.   

 

Special edition on Ukraine conflict

I. Military action

• Russian forces in Ukraine seized Europe's biggest nuclear power plant on March 4 in an assault that caused alarm around the world and that Washington said had risked catastrophe. An official at Energoatom, the Ukrainian state nuclear plant operator, told Reuters fighting had ceased and radiation levels were normal; Washington also said there had been no increase in radiation levels. But Energoatom no longer had contact with the Zaporizhzhia plant's managers or control over its nuclear material, the official said. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Raphael Grossi said the plant was undamaged from what he believed was a Russian projectile. Some reports said only one of its six reactors was working, at around 60% of capacity. Ukrainian officials said three of the six reactors were offline after the assault by Russian troops. Russia's Defense Ministry said the plant was working normally. Claims by the Ukrainian and Russian military cannot be independently verified. The Zaporizhzhia facility accounts for about 20% of Ukraine’s electricity. (Reuters, 03.04.22, Financial Times, 03.04.22, Bloomberg, 03.03.22, The Washington Post, 03.04.22)
  • As shells hit the area, a blaze broke out in a training building at the power plant, triggering a spasm of alarm around the world before the fire was extinguished and officials said the facility was safe. Global stocks sank on the news as Ukraine warned of a potential disaster worse than Chernobyl. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on Russia’s military to immediately halt firing on the plant and to allow a security zone to be established. President Joe Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as reports emerged about the attack. Russia's Defense Ministry blamed the fire on an attack by Ukrainian saboteurs and said its forces were in control. (Reuters, 03.04.22, Bloomberg, 03.03.22)
  • Days earlier Ukraine's nuclear regulator had appealed to the International Atomic Energy Agency for help in securing its nuclear power plants amid Russia's invasion. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said at a special meeting of the agency in Vienna on March 2 that the U.N. nuclear watchdog was working with "all sides" to explore how the plants and their staffs could be supported. (RFE/RL, 03.02.22)
• The Black Sea port of Kherson, in southern Ukraine, became the first major city to come under full control of Russian forces on March 2. “There is no Ukrainian army here,” said Igor Kolykhaev, the city’s mayor. “The city is surrounded.” Russian troops first approached the city of about 300,000 on Feb. 25 and met heavy resistance. On Feb. 26, they destroyed a dam in the region that Ukraine had built in 2014 in order to cut off an important water source to Crimea. Moscow has tightened its grip on Ukraine’s southern coastline, slashing access to shipping hubs with a flurry of bombardments. A local journalist in Kherson told The Washington Post that no Ukrainian government forces had been seen in the city center since early March 2. But Ukraine’s Defense Ministry denied that Kherson was under Moscow’s control. (The New York Times, 03.02.22, The Washington Post, 03.03.22)
  • Kolykhaev, the mayor, said late on March 2 that Russian troops were in the streets and had entered the local council building. Regional official Hennady Lakhuta was quoted as saying "occupiers" were in "all parts" of Kherson. A U.K. intelligence update early on March 3, however, said that while some Russian forces had entered Kherson, the military situation was unclear. (RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
• Russian forces landed in Ukraine's second biggest city, Kharkiv, on March 2 and triggered immediate clashes in the streets, the Ukrainian military said, following Moscow's relentless air assault across the country. Several days earlier the city of 1.4 million, on the border with Russia, had faced indiscriminate shelling that had killed dozens of civilians and wounded hundreds, according to Ukraine's Interior Ministry. (AFP, 03.02.22, Axios, 02.28.22)
• The Pentagon on March 3 said Russia had now moved 90% of the forces that had been pre-positioned along the border with Ukraine before the invasion. A U.S. senior defense official said the Pentagon could not independently verify reports that Russian forces were in control of Kherson but said Russian troops were continuing their advance on Mariupol, a large port city on the Azov Sea. Taking Mariupol would give Russia control of the whole of Ukraine’s southeastern coast, enabling it to deal a potentially huge blow to the country’s economy by cutting off one of its biggest ports from global shipping. U.S. officials have identified the capture of Mariupol and Kharkiv as a Russian goal, to isolate eastern Ukraine. (Financial Times, 03.03.22, Financial Times, 03.04.22, Axios, 02.28.22)
• Russia subjected Mariupol, Kharkiv and Chernihiv to relentless missile bombardment on March 3 as civilians bear the brunt of its war in Ukraine. The indiscriminate and brutal attacks on residential areas came as Russian forces tightened their grip on the southeast of Ukraine. At least 22 people were killed in a strike on Chernihiv, north of Kyiv, earlier in the day with Russian cluster munitions hitting a residential area. (Financial Times, 03.04.22)
  • As of March 3 British intelligence had concluded that Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol remained in Ukrainian hands but said Mariupol appeared to be encircled by Russian forces, echoing a Russian Defense Ministry claim. (RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
  • Mariupol's mayor, Vadym Boichenko, said on March 3 that Russian forces were attacking rail links to prevent evacuations and "systematically and methodically" blockade the city. Boichenko said hours-long shelling has cut off water, power and food supplies. Mariupol needs a cease-fire in order to restore power in the besieged city, the mayor said. (RFE/RL, 03.03.22, The Washington Post, 03.03.22)
• Northwest of Kherson, Russian forces on March 3 were bearing down on the port city of Mykolaiv—toward which Ukrainian troops had retreated, according to Kherson’s mayor—likely in their drive to Odessa. Local authorities said Russian troops had entered Mykolaiv, but a Ukrainian presidential adviser said the advance had been halted. If captured, the city of 500,000 people would be the biggest yet to fall. (The New York Times, 03.03.22, The New York Times, 03.03.22, Reuters, 03.04.22)
  • Gennady Trukhanov, the mayor of Odessa, backed by assessments from Ukraine’s military, said on March 2 that Russia’s goal was likely to surround Odessa with land and naval forces, cutting off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and the country’s primary link to the global economy. (The New York Times, 03.03.22)
• Major blasts were reported overnight on March 2-3 in Kyiv, though some of them may have been Ukrainian air-defense systems targeting Russian missiles, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko. A U.K. intelligence report echoed other sources in saying that a huge Russian military column extending tens of kilometers north of the capital had made little apparent progress over the past three days, stymied by what British intelligence officials called “staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion.” Military analysts have said that one of Russia's goals was likely to encircle Kyiv from multiple directions.  (RFE/RL, 03.03.22, The New York Times, 03.03.22, Axios, 02.28.22)
  • Russian missiles struck the TV tower in Kyiv, which is located near a memorial for the victims of the Babyn Yar Holocaust massacre, the Ukrainian government said on March 1. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Twitter that at least five people died in the strike. Video verified by The New York Times showed a “projectile” hitting the tower; other videos captured at least two more explosions in the immediate area. Television channels would be off the air temporarily because broadcasting hardware was damaged, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said in a statement on Facebook. The tower itself is still standing. (RFE/RL, 03.01.22, The New York Times, 03.01.22)
• A U.S. defense official said Russia had fired 480 missiles since the start of the invasion, adding that 230 missiles had been launched from mobile missile launchers that Russia had brought into Ukraine. Another 160 had been launched from inside Russia, with Putin’s forces also firing 70 missiles from Belarus and 10 from Russian navy ships in the Black Sea. (Financial Times, 03.04.22)
• The precise numbers of both civilian and military deaths are murky and cannot be independently verified. Most Ukrainians and international officials expect the toll—and the challenges of burying the dead—to significantly rise as the conflict appears to be entering a more dangerous phase. (The Washington Post, 03.04.22)
• At least 353 civilians were killed in the first four days after the invasion, Ukrainian officials said Feb. 27; an additional 1,684 civilians had been wounded, including 116 children. The U.N. human rights office said on March 3 that it had confirmed 249 civilians have been killed and 553 injured in Ukraine during the first week of the conflict following Russia's invasion. A U.N. count from two days earlier had included 13 children among the dead. (The Washington Post, 02.27.22, Reuters, 03.03.22, The New York Times, 03.01.22)
• NATO allies on March 4 rejected Ukraine's appeal for no-fly zones, saying they were increasing support but that stepping in directly would lead to a broader, even more brutal European war. Days earlier, speaking with reporters in a heavily guarded government compound, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had again urged NATO members to impose the no-fly zones to stop the Russian air force, saying this would be a preventative measure and not meant to drag the alliance into war with Russia.  (Reuters, 03.04.22, Reuters, 03.01.22)
• Vladimir Putin held a moment of silence for Russia’s casualties in the war in Ukraine on March 3 and blamed civilian casualties on “neo-Nazis” he accused of using “human shields.” In an address to an online meeting of his security council that was broadcast on state television, Russia’s president said he would “never give up my conviction that Russians and Ukrainians are one people” and said Russia’s troops were fighting “heroically.” The speech marked the first time Putin had addressed the human toll of the week-long war. Russia said on March 2 that 498 of its soldiers had been killed and more than 1,500 wounded; Ukraine claims Russia has suffered more than 5,500 casualties. Russian and Ukrainian military claims cannot be independently verified. (Financial Times, 03.03.22, Reuters, 03.02.22)
  • Putin for the first time acknowledged Russian losses in the war, promising to give families of the fallen a special payout falling between $50,000 and $70,000 each. He denied that Russian forces were experiencing greater resistance than expected. Putin pledged to achieve his goals in Ukraine “no matter what,” according to a Kremlin statement, which described the war as unfolding “according to plan.” (The New York Times, 03.03.22, Financial Times, 03.04.22, The Washington Post, 03.03.22)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin decided Feb. 27 to put Russian nuclear forces on alert, thrusting the crisis over Ukraine into a more volatile phase and fueling the potential for deadly miscalculation as the West’s campaign of economic reprisal increases the chances the Russian leader could see his survival and that of the Russian state at risk. (The Washington Post, 02.27.22)
  • The Pentagon is busy trying to decipher exactly what Putin meant by the order. Nuclear forces, both for the U.S. and for Russia, always maintain a state of heightened readiness so that any order can be executed immediately. “We aren’t exactly sure what the order means. … [W]e are reviewing it, watching and analyzing,” a senior U.S. defense official said Feb. 28. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called Putin's threats of using nuclear defense systems "dangerous rhetoric" and “irresponsible” behavior. (The Washington Post, 02.28.22, The Hill, 02.27.22)
• Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on March 3 accused Western politicians of fixating on nuclear war, one week after Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine. "It is clear that World War Three can only be nuclear," Lavrov said in an online interview with Russian and foreign media. "I would like to point out that it's in the heads of Western politicians that the idea of a nuclear war is spinning constantly, and not in the heads of Russians," he said. Lavrov has said that Russia would face a "real danger" if Kyiv acquired nuclear weapons. (AFP, 03.03.22, Reuters, 03.02.22)
• The United States and its NATO partners have sent thousands of troops and advanced weaponry to harden defenses in the alliance’s eastern flank while funneling billions of dollars worth of military hardware to Kyiv—moves met by the Kremlin with threats of “consequences.” The rapid escalation, observers say, has made the once-theoretical risk of direct confrontation between Russia and the West a tangible possibility with little hope of the tension subsiding, maybe for years to come. (The Washington Post, 03.01.22)
• The European Union agreed Feb. 27 to spend hundreds of millions of euros on buying weapons for Ukraine in its latest response to Russia’s invasion, EU officials said. (AP, 02.27.22)
• Germany on Feb. 26 reversed a historic policy of not sending weapons to conflict zones, saying the Russian invasion of Ukraine was an epochal moment that imperiled the entire post-World War II order across Europe. The decision came after Berlin had clung to its initial position for weeks despite pressure from EU and NATO allies. From its own stockpile, the German government will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine. It has also authorized the Netherlands to send Ukraine 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers and told Estonia it ship over send nine howitzers. (Politico, 02.26.22)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close Putin ally, said on March 4 that his armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine. Earlier, U.S. officials had said intelligence reports showed that Belarus is preparing to send its soldiers into Ukraine in support of the Russian invasion. The officials cited that support as a key factor behind a State Department decision on Feb. 28 to suspend U.S. Embassy operations in Minsk, the Belarusian capital. (Reuters, 03.04.22, The Washington Post, 02.28.22)
• The United Kingdom has accused Russia of deploying thermobaric weapons systems in Ukraine, raising fears there could be an escalation of the damage being done as Moscow intensifies its assault on major cities a week after invading its neighbor. Russia has not commented on the issue. (RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
• On March 1 a senior U.S. defense official told Pentagon reporters that Russia had not used the full extent of its airpower in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians were still able to conduct their own air operations and launch air defense capabilities. (Defense One, 03.01.22)
• “Russia has badly mismanaged the planning for this operation,” a senior State Department official told Defense One on Feb. 28. “Their logistics trains are poorly organized, morale is bad, and they are totally unprepared for urban warfare in Ukrainian cities. They have many advantages over Ukraine in terms of numbers of forces and equipment, but they’re playing their hand badly.” (Defense One, 03.01.22)
• Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov wrote in a Feb. 28 Facebook post, "We offer Russian soldiers a choice: to die in an unjust war or full amnesty and 5 million rubles of compensation if they put down their guns and voluntarily surrender to prison." (Axios, 02.28.22)
• Ukraine's deputy defense minister claimed on Feb. 28 that Ukraine has received "thousands" of requests from foreign volunteers to join a new "International Legion" to fight Russia. Zelensky, meanwhile, said he will allow Ukrainian prisoners with combat experience to be released to help defend the country and "compensate their guilt." (Axios, 02.28.22)

Cyber:

• The war in Ukraine has provoked an onslaught of cyberattacks by apparent volunteers unlike any that security researchers have seen in previous conflicts, creating widespread disruption, confusion and chaos that researchers fear could provoke more serious attacks by nation-state hackers, escalate the war on the ground or harm civilians. The online battles have blurred the lines between state-backed hackers and patriotic amateurs, making it difficult for governments to understand who is attacking them and how to retaliate. But both Ukraine and Russia appear to have embraced tech-savvy volunteers, creating channels on the chat app Telegram to direct them to target specific websites. (The New York Times, 03.04.22, The Washington Post, 03.01.22)
• While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spawned all manner of cyberattacks and defenses, few are playing out the way the experts thought they would. As of Feb. 28, five days after tanks moved into Ukraine, the internet and other key Ukrainian infrastructure were still functioning, the outgunned Ukrainian military was still coordinating effectively and Russia’s vaunted disinformation capabilities were failing to persuade Ukrainians that resistance is futile. (The Washington Post, 02.28.22, The Washington Post, 03.01.22)
  • Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder of the cybersecurity company Crowdstrike (since departed) and head of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, told Defense One he believes Russia has been reluctant to bring down the Ukrainian internet because Russian forces may be relying on local networks for their own communications. (Defense One, 03.01.22)
  • A promised shipment of Starlink satellite internet service terminals from U.S. tech entrepreneur Elon Musk’s SpaceX arrived in Ukraine on Feb. 28. (Axios, 02.28.22)
• Ukraine will join the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE) as a "contributing participant", the NATO-accredited military research institution said in a statement on March 4. (Reuters, 03.04.22)
• When Apple suspended sales of iPhones and other products in Russia this week, it also made a subtler intervention. Along with Google, it turned off traffic updates for its live mapping service in Ukraine as a precaution against the invading army using it to attack. (Financial Times, 03.04.22)

Humanitarian crisis:

• More than 1 million refugees have left Ukraine, according to data from UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency. The exodus is set to become Europe’s worst humanitarian crisis in this century, already on par with the number of refugees who were displaced from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan in 2015. If fighting continues, as many as 4 million—roughly 10% of the Ukrainian population—could be displaced in the coming weeks, Filippo Grandi, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees, said Feb. 28. “I have worked in refugee emergencies for almost 40 years, and rarely have I seen an exodus as rapid as this one,” Grandi said in a statement March 3. Significant numbers have fled to neighboring countries, including Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and non-EU member Moldova, the U.N. has said. (The Washington Post, 03.03.22, Russia Matters, 03.03.22, AP, 02.28.22)
• The United Nations appealed on March 1 for some $1.7 billion to aid millions of victims of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and address the escalating destruction of critical infrastructure. “The crisis has turned very ugly, very fast,” Martin Griffiths, the United Nations’ emergency aid coordinator told reporters in Geneva, noting that artillery bombardments had already left hundreds of thousands of families without access to drinking water. (The New York Times, 03.01.22)
• Ukrainians have been fleeing west, many crowding into Lviv near the Polish border. James Elder of the United Nations children's agency said doctors in Lviv were preparing a system to identify children in case of mass casualties. "A green dot means fine over here, a yellow dot means critical support. They are learning a black dot means the child won't make it," he said. (Reuters, 03.04.22)
• Panicked residents of Kyiv swarmed the capital’s main train station on March 4 to flee the city before the window closes. (The New York Times, 03.04.22)
• The European Union has agreed to measures providing “temporary protection” to the hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming into the bloc as they try to escape Russia's invasion and heavy bombardment of cities across Ukraine. EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson announced the "historic decision" on March 3 after a meeting of interior ministers from the bloc's 27 members. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the same day that "this war needs to stop now" and called “for an immediate cease-fire" and the “immediate establishment of humanitarian corridors” after visiting a refugee center in the capital of Moldova, which shares a long border with Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 03.03.22, The Washington Post, 03.03.22, RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
• In the city of Sumy, in northeastern Ukraine, more than 800 medical students, mostly from African countries and India, are stranded at their university, officials said, after Russian forces hindered access to roads and trains. Explosions close to the university have made power outages and bomb shelter visits a daily occurrence. Sumy is about 40 miles from the Russian border. (The New York Times, 03.03.22)
• See also “Negotiations” section below.

 

II. Responses

Sanctions:

• Allied foreign ministers are meeting both at NATO headquarters and at the European Council today to assess the sanctions imposed against Russia and to discuss their implementation and potential further measures down the line. Some argue for a breather, as capitals assess the damage to Russia’s economy and to their own business sectors. Other member states, among them Baltic countries and some former eastern bloc nations such as Poland, are eager to do more—and quickly. Ideas put forward include increasing the number of Russian banks cut out of the SWIFT messaging network—a move that the countries heavily reliant on Russian gas exports are distinctly wary of. Member states have also discussed a shipping ban similar to the one already imposed by the U.K. Many want to impose sanctions on the family members of some individuals already on the EU blacklist, as the U.S. has done, to better enforce asset freezes. Lithuania has suggested 25 more individuals to hit. (Financial Times, 03.04.22)
• The United States on Feb. 28 imposed sanctions on Russia's central bank and other sources of wealth, dealing a crushing blow to the country's economy in response to its invasion of Ukraine. The measures, blocking Americans from engaging in any transactions involving Russia's central bank, Finance Ministry or national wealth fund, are likely to push Russian inflation higher, cripple its purchasing power and drive down investments, U.S. officials said. The measures also "immobilized" any assets Russia's central bank held in the U.S., hindering Russia's ability to access hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves, one official said. (Reuters, 02.28.22)
• The 27-nation European Union on March 2 cut seven Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system and banned Kremlin-controlled media outlets RT and Sputnik from broadcasting into the bloc. The list of banks was finalized with input from the U.S. (AFP, 03.02.22, Bloomberg, 02.28.22, AP, 02.27.22)
• Earlier, the EU imposed two sets of sanctions against Russia and was preparing further measures, according to official statements and people familiar with the matter. In addition to excluding major Russian banks from SWIFT and shutting out RT and Sputnik, the most significant measures include: a ban on all transactions with the Russian central bank and freezing its assets; shutting down EU airspace to all Russian planes, including the private jets of oligarchs; sanctioning some of Russia’s wealthiest tycoons and top officials; stopping financial inflows from Russia into the EU by imposing limits on bank deposits and barring Russians from investing in EU securities; introducing export controls on dual-use and high-tech goods, with a particular focus on electronics, computers, telecom and information security, sensors and lasers and marine applications; banning exports of aircraft, aircraft parts and related equipment, as well as the sale of equipment and technology needed to update Russian oil refineries to modern environmental standards; stopping exports from Belarus. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
  • Russia closed its airspace to Germany, France, the U.K. and 33 other countries on Feb. 28, after the EU froze out Russian aircraft. (Axios, 02.28.22)
• The White House on March 4 said the U.S. economy is in a position strong enough that it could likely withstand the impact of a U.S. ban on the import of Russian oil, which is reportedly still being considered in response to the escalating Russian military attacks on Ukraine’s civilians. The White House on March 3 had rejected bipartisan calls to ban Russian oil imports into the U.S., saying an embargo would limit global supply and raise prices for consumers. The U.S. and Europe have remained reluctant for now to sanction Russian energy, seeking to insulate the world economy from a greater shock. Germany’s Economy Ministry said on Feb. 28 that purchases of Russian gas remained possible using SWIFT even after the latest curbs. (CNBC, 03.04.22, Financial Times, 03.04.22, Bloomberg, 02.28.22, Financial Times, 03.03.22)
• Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced an asset freeze against all major Russian banks, including an immediate freeze on VTB, Russia’s second largest bank. The U.K. government has also sanctioned five banks and more than 100 individuals, entities and their subsidiaries. Other measures include: immediate ban on all exports of goods that could have military use, such as electrical components and truck parts; legislation within days to prohibit a range of technology exports such as semiconductors and aircraft parts as well as goods for the extractive industries, such as oil refinery equipment; limit of 50,000 pounds ($67,000) on deposits by Russian nationals in U.K. bank accounts; plans, in conjunction with the U.S. and EU, to forbid any U.K. national from carrying out financial transactions involving Russia’s central bank, the Russian National Wealth Fund and Russia’s Ministry of Finance. All sanctions also apply to Belarus. Legislation to stop all major Russian companies from raising finance on U.K. markets, and also to prohibit the Russian state from raising sovereign debt on U.K. markets, was to come into force March 1, when an economic crime bill to target illicit Russian money in the U.K. was also due to be presented. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
  • The U.K. government sanctioned “Putin associates” Igor Shuvalov and Alisher Usmanov, worth a combined $19 billion. The two are now cut off from their significant U.K. interests including mansions worth tens of millions. The pair’s assets frozen, both are hit with travel bans and no British citizen or business can deal with them. That brings the number of oligarchs hit by British sanctions to 15. (Financial Times, 03.04.22, UKGov, 03.03.22)
  • An oligarch taskforce to target the Russian elite is expected to be launched by the U.K. government next week. (UKGov, 03.03.22)
• President Ignazio Cassis of Switzerland, a historically neutral state that is not an EU member, said the country would adopt the bloc’s sanctions on Russia, including asset freezes. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
• Japan, South Korea and Singapore, among other Asian nations, have indicated they will join some U.S. and European measures designed to deter Putin and the Russian government from continuing its assault on Ukraine. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced late Feb. 27 that Japan would back measures on SWIFT and freeze the assets of Putin and certain other Russian officials. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
• The United States leveled an array of new sanctions on Russian elites and oligarchs on March 3, ratcheting up the economic pressure on allies of President Vladimir Putin as his invasion of Ukraine intensifies. The sanctions, which include travel bans and seizures of assets, target some of the wealthiest and most powerful individuals in Russia, including Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov. The new sanctions apply to eight members of Russia’s elite and place visa restrictions on 19 oligarchs and their family members. (The New York Times, 03.03.22)
  • The U.S. Justice Department has announced a new task force that will help enforce the sweeping sanctions against Russian oligarchs using various tools, including cryptocurrency tracing. (CNBC, 03.03.22)
  • At least two superyachts owned by Russian oligarchs have been seized by authorities in the European Union after the executives were sanctioned: Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s superyacht “Dilbar” was restricted from leaving its anchorage in Hamburg by German authorities on March 3, according to an official with knowledge of the matter; French authorities seized a massive yacht they say is linked to Igor Sechin, a Russian billionaire who is CEO of state oil company Rosneft. (CNBC, 03.03.22)
  • The U.S. said Feb. 28 sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund would also extend to its CEO, Kirill Dmitriev, a close Putin ally. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
• After attending a classified briefing on the war in Ukraine, U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy tweeted on Feb. 28 that the “U.S. and allies are coordinating to not only freeze the assets of Putin and his oligarch allies but to seize those assets as well. This is likely a further step than Putin’s inner circle anticipated.” (Russia Matters, 02.28.22)
• Russia’s Aeroflot has been cut off from Sabre and Amadeus, two of the world’s main airline ticketing systems. (Financial Times, 03.04.22)
• “We … haven’t seen an end to the sanctions—it is likely we get a continuous stream of them until Russia at least pauses its military operation,” said Kaan Nazli, a money manager at Neuberger Berman in The Hague. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
• Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry has summoned the British ambassador to Kazakhstan for an explanation of a British lawmaker's comments about imposing sanctions on the Central Asian country over its alleged support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his policies, including the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops. (RFE/RL, 03.02.22)

Business response/impacts:

• U.S. credit card giants Visa, Mastercard and American Express said they were blocking Russian banks from their payment networks following international sanctions in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. (AFP, 03.02.22)
• Apple, ExxonMobil and Boeing announced in rapid succession on March 1 steps to withdraw or freeze business in Russia as more U.S. corporate giants take action after the Ukraine invasion. The moves—in diverse industries and following earlier announcements by Disney, Ford, Mastercard and others—highlight the rising economic toll on Russia after its assault on Ukraine. Earlier, Apple announced a halt in all product sales in Russia and that Apple Pay and other services have been limited, while Russian state-owned media RT and Sputnik news apps were no longer available for download outside Russia. (AFP, 03.02.22, AFP, 03.02.22)
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to pile further pressure on chip manufacturing as a squeeze on the supply of rare gases critical to the production process adds to pandemic-related disruptions. Ukraine supplies about 50% of the world’s neon gas, analysts have said, a byproduct of Russia’s steel industry that is purified in Ukraine and is indispensable in chip production. When Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, neon prices shot up by at least 600%. Also, 40% of the global supply of krypton comes from Ukraine. The price of the gas, which is used in semiconductor production, rose from about $1.70-$2.60 per liter to nearly $8.60 by the end of January, according to Date. (Financial Times, 03.04.22)
• Deutsche Bank is bracing for the loss of a quarter of its investment bank IT specialists as sanctions against Russia threaten to cut off its key software technology centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The German lender employs 1,500 people in its Russian technology center (RTC), who are responsible for developing and maintaining software for its global trading business and main corporate banking system. (Financial Times, 03.04.22)
• A leading American Internet service provider, Cogent Communications, said it was severing relations with Russian customers on March 4, a move that gives Ukrainian officials another victory in their campaign to isolate Russia online. (Washington Post, 03.04.22)
• The British oil giant BP said on Feb. 27 that it would “exit” its nearly 20% stake in Rosneft, the Russian state-controlled oil company, making it one of the first large companies to abandon Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The move could cost the company up to $25 billion. (The New York Times, 02.27.22, Financial Times, 02.28.22)
• Shell is pulling back from Russia and ending its involvement with the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. Shell said it would end all three of its joint ventures with Kremlin-backed Gazprom, including its 27.5% stake in the huge Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas project. (Financial Times, 02.28.22)
  • The Swiss-based company that built the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany is considering filing for insolvency, two sources familiar with the situation said, as it attempts to settle claims ahead of a U.S. sanction deadline for other entities to stop dealings with it. (Reuters, 03.01.22)
• Norway’s Equinor also followed BP on Feb. 28 in pledging an exit from its joint ventures in Russia. The three announcements increased the pressure on the likes of TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Trafigura, Vitol and Glencore to do the same. (Financial Times, 02.28.22)
• Norway’s massive sovereign-wealth fund—the world’s largest—is divesting its Russian holdings. Norges Bank Investment Management, the arm of the Norwegian central bank that operates the $1.3 trillion fund, is freezing investments in Russia, a spokesperson for the fund said Feb. 27. (Wall Street Journal, 02.27.22)
• Canada’s second-largest pension fund, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, said it sold off its Russian assets last week, while two Danish funds were also exploring divestment. (Politico, 02.28.22)
• A bipartisan group of California lawmakers will try to force the nation’s two largest public pension funds to divest financial holdings connected to Russian assets in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. The two systems have recently held more than $1.7 billion combined in such assets, according to Reuters. (Politico, 02.28.22)
  • Colorado’s public pension fund moved early to divest its Russian holdings, pulling $7.2 million invested in Sberbank last week after the bank was hit by federal sanctions. (Politico, 02.28.22)
  • Lawmakers in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois have also introduced or are exploring bills to force divestment in Russia and its ally Belarus, as has New York City. (Politico, 02.28.22)
• The U.K.-backed satellite internet company OneWeb has suspended all future launches from Russia’s cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, as the invasion of Ukraine shatters the decades-long collaboration between Moscow and the west in space. (Financial Times, 03.03.22)
• Swedish furniture giant Ikea said March 3 that it would suspend its activities in Russia and Belarus, affecting nearly 15,000 employees, 17 stores and three production sites, in response to the war in Ukraine. (AFP, 03.03.22)
• Volkswagen has joined fellow German carmakers BMW and Mercedes in suspending all local production in Russia, as well as exports to the country, in response to the invasion of Ukraine. (Financial Times, 03.03.22)
• Music streaming giant Spotify said March 2 that it had closed its office in Russia and removed Russian state-sponsored content from its service. (AFP, 03.03.22)
• Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) is looking into leaving Russia, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, a move that would make it the first European bank to do so since the country's invasion of Ukraine. Such a decision, which could see one of central and eastern Europe's biggest banks quit both Russia and Ukraine, is not imminent, but could be triggered if its businesses in those countries need further cash or capital, one of the people said. (Reuters, 03.01.22)
• A host of U.K. supermarket chains have removed Russian-made products from sale in response to Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Sainsbury’s, the second-largest operator in the U.K. market, announced March 4 that it would remove from its stores all products “that are sourced 100 percent from Russia” and is renaming its chicken Kiev product to “chicken Kyiv” in recognition of Ukraine’s preferred spelling of its capital city. (Politico, 03.04.22)

Ukraine:

• A besieged Ukraine has adopted a gruesome tactic in hopes of stoking anti-government rage inside Russia: posting photos and videos of captured and killed Russian soldiers on the web for anyone to see, some of them extremely graphic. But the tactic also could be interpreted as a violation of the Geneva Conventions, which say governments must “at all times” protect prisoners of war from “insults and public curiosity.” Such violations might seem minor compared with evidence suggesting Russian military forces have killed civilians and indiscriminately bombed residential neighborhoods. But they could chip away at Ukraine’s ability to hold Russia accountable for violating international law. (The Washington Post, 03.03.22)
  • Ukraine on March 2 invited the worried mothers of Russian troops captured on the battlefield to come and collect their sons, in an apparent attempt to embarrass Moscow. "A decision has been taken to hand over captured Russian troops to their mothers if they come to collect them in Ukraine, in Kyiv," the Defense Ministry said in a statement. (AFP, 03.02.22)
• Unshaven and wearing a military T-shirt, a haggard President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on March 3 hosted his first news conference since the war began, inviting journalists into his office building, now fortified with sandbags. In an animated briefing, Zelensky, whose defiance has made him a symbol of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion, laid out the state of negotiations with Russia, voiced pride in his people, pleaded for a no-fly zone and spoke frankly about fear of dying. (The New York Times, 03.03.22)
  • After an offer from the United States to transport him to safety, Zelensky shot back in Ukrainian on Feb. 26: “I need ammunition, not a ride,” according to a senior American intelligence official with direct knowledge of the conversation. (AP, 02.26.22)
  • In a video address after a night of Russian shelling of Kyiv and the strategic cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol, Zelensky on March 3 praised Ukrainian resistance and said, "We have nothing to lose but our own freedom." "They will have no peace here," Zelensky said of the invaders. He described Russian troops as "confused children who have been used" and called on them to "go home." (RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
• Zelensky signed an application on Feb. 28 for his country to join the EU, a day after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine is "one of us and we want them in." (Axios, 02.28.22)
• In a video message released late Feb. 28, Zelensky also urged the U.N. to remove Russia from the Security Council. (Axios, 02.28.22)

U.S.:

• The U.S. and Russian militaries have established a special line to communicate with one another through the crisis spawned by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, two U.S. defense officials said March 3, highlighting the significance of regional tensions. The line will be used to ensure no there are miscalculations or accidents that occur outside Ukraine, where President Biden has promised U.S. troops will not be fighting, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. (The Washington Post, 03.03.22)
  • “Now that Ukrainian airspace is in dispute and being contested, and Ukrainian airspace runs right up alongside NATO airspace, we have conveyed to the Russians that we believe a conduit at the operational level is needed … so we can avoid miscalculation,” a senior Pentagon official had told Politico before any agreement had been reached. (Politico, 02.27.22)
• U.S. President Joe Biden branded Vladimir Putin a "dictator" on March 1 and warned Russia's billionaires that he was coming after their yachts and private jets, as Russian air strikes pummeled Ukraine in a bid to crush its resistance. "A Russian dictator, invading a foreign country, has costs around the world," Biden told lawmakers in his annual State of the Union address, promising "robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted at Russia's economy." (AFP, 03.02.22)
• The White House has asked lawmakers on Capitol Hill to set aside an extra $10 billion for humanitarian, security and economic assistance to Ukraine, in what would be a significant step up in the U.S.’s financial support for the region. (Financial Times, 03.03.22)
• The U.S. has informed the Russian mission to the U.N. that it will begin expelling 12 people, whom it described as "intelligence operatives" that have "abused their privileges of residency in the U.S.," a spokesperson for the U.S. mission to the U.N. said Feb. 28. Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told reporters the diplomats had been asked to leave by March 7. He said Russia would respond to the move "because it's diplomatic practice." (Axios, 02.28.22, Reuters, 02.28.22)
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Brussels on March 4 to meet with EU and NATO counterparts. “We are faced together with what is President Putin's war of choice: unprovoked, unjustified, and a war that is having horrific, horrific consequences for real people. … We're committed to doing everything we can to make it stop. So the coordination between us is vital,” he told reporters on his way into the meeting. Later Blinken was scheduled to meet with members of the G-7 and officials in Poland and Moldova, in part to discuss humanitarian aid and refugee assistance, as well as officials in the Baltic States. (Reuters, 03.04.22, The Wall Street Journal, 03.02.22, CNN, 03.03.22, RFE/RL, 03.02.22)
• The departments of Defense and Homeland Security “are pressing hard for Congress to … get a budget passed,” U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy tweeted on Feb. 28. “There is no way for our national security agencies to be nimble enough to support Ukraine if they are operating on the 2020/21 budget.” (Russia Matters, 02.28.22)
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen must block Russia from exchanging the $17 billion in International Monetary Fund reserves it received last year and oppose any further such IMF allocations, U.S. Republican lawmakers said. The 41 lawmakers said in a letter to Yellen that the $650 billion allocation of Special Drawing Rights to IMF members had undermined previous sanctions on Russia even before it invaded Ukraine. (Reuters, 03.01.22)
• The U.S. State Department has accused Moscow of mounting "a full assault on media freedom and the truth" as officials there seek to "mislead and suppress" information about Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. "The people of Russia did not choose this war. Putin did," the State Department said. "They have a right to know about the death, suffering and destruction being inflicted by their government on the people of Ukraine. The people of Russia also have a right to know about the human costs of this senseless war to their own soldiers." (RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
• The United States called on India on March 2 to distance itself from Russia, its main arms supplier, after the invasion of Ukraine, which New Delhi has yet to condemn. (Reuters, 03.03.22)

China:

• China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, spoke to his counterpart in Ukraine, Dmytro Kubela, calling on Russia and Ukraine to seek a negotiated settlement and expressing concern about the harm to civilians. Although Wang merely restated China’s public stance, the call appeared to be part of an effort to distance Beijing somewhat from explicit support for the Russian invasion. (The New York Times, 03.01.22)
• China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, could provide a financial lifeline to Russia. It has a multi-billion-dollar currency swap with Russia’s central bank, allowing the two nations to provide liquidity to businesses so they can continue trading. China has also signed Russian banks onto its homegrown payments settlement system, seen as an alternative to SWIFT, which many Russian lenders will be banned from using. It’s unclear whether that support will be forthcoming though, with the PBOC yet to disclose how it will respond to the Russia sanctions. China is treading cautiously for now, with two major state-owned banks restricting financing for purchasing Russian commodities. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
• Some of China’s buyers have halted purchases of Russian coal due to concerns over Western sanctions that limit money transfers related to Russian exports, according to Chinese consultant Fenwei Energy Information Services Co. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
• Chinese broadcasters will not air Premier League soccer matches this weekend in response to the league's planned support of Ukraine, sources have confirmed to ESPN. (ESPN, 03.04.22)
• China on March 3 denied a report that it had asked Russia to delay its invasion of Ukraine until after the Beijing Winter Olympics, as international scrutiny grows of warming ties between the two powers. (AFP, 03.03.22)

Broader international:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin called on March 4 for the “normalization” of relations with other states, saying Moscow has “absolutely no ill intentions with regard to our neighbors.” Speaking via video link at a ceremony raising the Russian flag on a Kaliningrad ferry, Putin called for global coordination, even as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine entered its second week. “I think that everyone should think about normalizing relations and cooperating normally,” he said. (The Washington Post, 03.04.22)
• The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has launched an immediate criminal investigation of possible war crimes in Ukraine. The prosecutor, Karim Khan, said late March 2 that he would fast-track the investigation after receiving requests from 39 member countries, most of them European. Such a move is unprecedented at the court, where prosecutors typically wait months for approval from a panel of judges. Khan said in a statement that "there is a reasonable basis" to believe that both war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed as Russia's invasion unfolds. (The New York Times, 03.03.22, Axios, 02.28.22)
• The U.N. Human Rights Council started an urgent debate on Ukraine that could establish an international commission of inquiry to investigate war crimes. Russia’s invasion has “opened a new and dangerous chapter in world history,” Michelle Bachelet, the U.N.’s top human rights official, said at the start of the debate, which is expected to conclude on March 4. Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova, addressing the council on March 3, said that Russian bombings of Ukrainian cities "clearly amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity." (The New York Times, 03.03.22, RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
• The United States raised the alarm March 2 over the "staggering" human cost of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, as the apparent deployment of cluster bombs and other treaty-violating weapons raised fears of a brutal escalation in the week-old conflict. The U.S. State Department accused Russia on Feb. 28 of "widespread" human rights abuses: "Russia’s invasion has damaged and destroyed schools, hospitals, radio stations and homes, killing and injuring civilians, including children." (AFP, 03.03.22, Axios, 02.28.22)
• The International Court of Justice said March 1 it would hold genocide hearings on March 7 and 8 over the war in Ukraine, as fighting intensifies. The Hague-based ICJ, the United Nations' top court, will open the public hearings after Ukraine lodged a complaint with the court to order Russia to stop its invasion. (AFP, 03.02.22)
• The United Nations General Assembly on March 2 overwhelmingly voted to reprimand Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and demanded that Moscow stop fighting and withdraw its military forces, an action that aims to diplomatically isolate Russia at the world body. The resolution, supported by 141 of the assembly's 193 members, ended a rare emergency session called by the U.N. Security Council and as Ukrainian forces battled on in the port of Kherson in the face of air strikes and a devastating bombardment that forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee. (Reuters, 03.02.22)
• About 100 diplomats, many from Western countries, walked out of a speech by Russia’s foreign minister at the U.N. Human Rights Council on March 1 in protest over his country’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva led the walkout, which left a largely empty conference hall to hear the remarks by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a conference on disarmament. (The New York Times, 03.01.22)
• Alexander Lukashenko’s effort to strengthen his grip on power through a referendum Feb. 27 instead became an opportunity for Belarusians to protest his rule and his alliance with Russia that’s entangling the country in the war with Ukraine. It’s also opened his country to painful EU sanctions. Crowds marched through the center of Minsk chanting: “No to war” and the political opposition called on people to protest Belarusian participation in Russia’s invasion. (Politico, 02.27.22)
• Finland's parliament debated two citizens' initiatives demanding consideration of NATO membership this week. Both gathered the needed 50,000 signatures in a matter of days, forcing political parties and individual politicians to reconsider their views on joining the club, for which there had been little appetite until Russia started waging war on Ukraine. A recent survey by the Finnish broadcasting company Yle found that 53% of Finns support their country joining NATO—compared to only 19% in the previous poll in 2017. The parliamentary debate got so heated that the Finnish president Sauli Niinisto decided to give a statement on March 3 saying that "In times of extreme change, we must keep a cool head." Niinisto left for Washington on March 4 to meet with President Joe Biden and discuss "the U.S.-Finnish defense relationship," according to the White House. (EU Observer, 03.04.22, Politico, 02.28.22, Reuters, 03.04.22)
  • From now on, NATO is sharing all information pertaining to the ongoing war in Ukraine with close partners Sweden and Finland, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced March 4. “In response to Russia’s aggression, we have decided to strengthen our coordination and information-sharing with Finland and Sweden,” Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Brussels, adding, “Both countries are now taking part in all NATO consultations about the crisis.” (Defense News, 03.04.22) 
• Turkey's drone shipments to Ukraine are not military aid but rather private sales, a deputy Turkish foreign minister was quoted as saying on March 3, underscoring Ankara's effort to avoid offending Moscow amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (Reuters, 03.03.22)
• Following Ukraine’s plea to join the European Union as it battles Russia’s invasion, Georgia and Moldova on March 3 submitted their own applications to join the bloc. The two countries are highly unlikely to join the union any time soon but their applications reflected their deep alarm at Moscow’s war on Ukraine and a desire to move closer politically to the EU. (Politico, 03.03.22)
• Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Kiril Petkov says his country is no longer “soft” on Russia but acknowledges Sofia still has red lines when it comes to responding to Russian aggression. Trying to chart a more unambiguously pro-Western trajectory than before, Petkov fired Defense Minister Stefan Yanev this week after he parroted Putin’s spin on the war in Ukraine and recommended that Bulgaria should chart a neutral course. (Politico, 03.04.22)
• The trickle of countries leaving the Russian-dominated International Investment Bank (IIB) and the International Bank for Economic Cooperation (IBEC) has now become a flood. The Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Romania have announced that they will quit the two Soviet-era international banks because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, leaving Hungary—which hosts the IIB’s headquarters—isolated as the only EU country that remains. (bne IntelliNews, 03.04.22)
• The French government has advised its citizens to leave Russia unless they are there on essential business. (Financial Times, 03.03.22)
• Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel laid out a litany of complaints March 1 about Jerusalem’s response to the Russian invasion, accusing Israeli officials of failing to match the aid offered by other nations and of forgetting Ukraine’s history of aiding Jews during the Holocaust. (The Washington Post, 03.01.22)
• Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from competing in the Beijing Winter Paralympics, the International Paralympic Committee announced March 3, citing the war in Ukraine. (AFP, 03.03.22)

 

III. Negotiations

• Russian and Ukrainian delegations agreed on March 3 on a mechanism to allow “humanitarian corridors” to be created for the evacuation of civilians trapped in towns and cities under Russian attack. The agreement came during a second round of talks on the evening of March 3 in southwest Belarus. But Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Russia rejected Ukraine’s main demands for its withdrawal and an end to attacks. Local ceasefires would operate only in areas of the evacuation corridors for limited times. Logistical details and a communications link to open up corridors would be agreed to “in the near future,” Podolyak said. The corridors would allow civilians to escape areas under attack and would allow food and medical help to enter. (The Washington Post, 03.03.22)
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said March 1 that Russia must stop bombing Ukrainian cities before meaningful talks on a ceasefire could start. (Reuters, 03.01.22)
  • Ahead of the meeting, Russia's delegation—led by President Vladimir Putin's aide Vladmir Medinsky—said its proposals have to do with "military-technical, humanitarian-international and political" aspects. The talks took place in Belarus's Brest region, close to the border with Poland, in Belovezhskaya Pushcha—which became famous in 1991 as the place where the three leaders of then-Soviet Russia, Ukraine and Belarus signed a treaty that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. (AFP, 03.03.22, Russia Matters, 03.03.22)
  • As a first round of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks concluded at the Ukraine-Belarus border on Feb. 28, Podolyak tweeted that the Russian side was "extremely biased." After that round, Medinsky said the sides had found “certain points where we forecast common ground.” Expectations of a breakthrough remain low. (Axios, 02.28.22, The Washington Post, 02.28.22)
• French President Emmanuel Macron believes "the worst is to come" in Ukraine after a 90-minute phone call with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on March 3, according to an aide to the French leader. He added that Putin "wanted to seize control of the whole of Ukraine. He will, in his own words, carry out his operation to 'de-Nazify' Ukraine to the end." Macron also urged Putin to avoid civilian casualties and allow for humanitarian access. "President Putin replied that he was in favor but without making any commitments," the aide said, adding that Putin had denied that the Russian military was targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Macron will again push for extra sanctions on Russia to increase the cost of the invasion, the aide said while denying any open tensions between the two men. (AFP, 03.03.22)
  • In the call, initiated at Putin’s request, the Russian president set out his conditions for talks with Ukraine. According to a Kremlin readout of the call carried by Interfax, “it was confirmed that this is first and foremost about the demilitarization and neutrality of Ukraine, to ensure that Ukraine will never pose a threat to Russia.” According to French officials, Putin told Macron that he would engage in ceasefire talks only if Ukrainians laid down their arms and that the Russia’s objectives will be achieved no matter what. “Any attempt to buy time by dragging out the talks will only mean that in the course of the talks we will make additional demands of Kyiv,” the Russian statement said. (Financial Times, 03.04.22, Financial Times, 03.03.22)
  • Macron had also reiterated Western demands to halt Russia’s attack on Ukraine in a Feb. 28 phone call with Putin, the French leader’s office said. Macron told Putin to cease assaults on civilians, preserve civilian infrastructure and secure Ukraine’s roadways. “President Putin confirmed his willingness to commit on these three points,” the statement said. According to the Kremlin, Putin told Macron that a Ukraine settlement was only possible if Kyiv was neutral, "denazified" and "demilitarized" and Russian control over annexed Crimea was formally recognized. (Wall Street Journal, 02.28.22, Reuters, 02.28.22)
• Russian-Israeli billionaire Roman Abramovich, at the request of Ukraine, was in Belarus assisting in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as part of an effort to end the ongoing war. Abramovich has close ties with the Jewish communities in Ukraine and Russia. (The Jerusalem Post, 02.28.22)

 

IV. Russia’s domestic politics and economy

• The Russian ruble hit new record lows against the dollar on March 3 as stinging Western sanctions over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine knocked Russia's financial system, and surging oil prices exacerbated concerns of inflation in the global economy. Steps by the central bank and Finance Ministry have failed to halt the currency’s slide, with the ruble ending at 106.01 per dollar in Moscow, after hitting an intraday record low of 118.35. The VanEck Russia ETF tumbled 13%, having shed about 73% this year to hit record lows. Early in the week, Russia’s biggest foreign bond—$7 billion in debt maturing in 2047—lost more than half of its value to reach around 30 cents on the dollar, according to Tradeweb data. Some investors said they saw a possibility that Russia could default on its debt, which has become extremely hard to trade. (Reuters, 03.03.22, Reuters, 03.02.22, Financial Times, 02.28.22)
  • Ratings agencies Fitch and Moody's slashed Russia's sovereign debt on March 3 to "junk" status, or the category of countries at risk of not being able to repay their debt, a week after Moscow began its assault on Ukraine. S&P Global Ratings lowered Russia’s credit score below investment grade on Feb. 25. (AFP, 03.03.22, Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
  • In a sign of Russia’s increasing economic isolation, index provider MSCI said it would drop Russian stocks from its widely tracked emerging markets indices, warning that sanctions had made the country’s equities “uninvestable”. (Financial Times, 03.04.22)
• Renaissance Capital said it now expects a recession this year, compared to a forecast of 3% growth expected as recently as last week. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
• Russia’s central bank acted quickly to shield the nation’s $1.5 trillion economy from the sweeping sanctions, which also hit key banks and left President Vladimir Putin unable to access much of his war chest of more than $640 billion. Facing the risk of a bank run, a rapid sell-off in assets and the steepest depreciation in the ruble since 1998, policymakers banned brokers from selling securities held by foreigners starting Feb. 28 on the Moscow Exchange. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
  • The Russian central bank in an emergency move raised its key interest rate to 20% from 9.5% on Feb. 28 and authorities told export-focused companies to sell 80% of their foreign currency revenues. (Reuters, 02.28.22)
  • Russia said on March 1 it was placing temporary curbs on foreigners seeking to exit Russian assets, putting the brakes on an accelerating investor exodus. (Reuters, 03.01.22)
  • The Moscow Stock Exchange remained closed for the third day in a row on March 2 as the Russian authorities rolled out additional measures to limit the economic impact from the sanctions imposed by the West. (AFP, 03.02.22)
  • Russians lined up at cash machines around the country as demand for foreign currency soared. The central bank has said it was increasing supplies to ATMs to meet need and issued another statement on Feb. 27 vowing to provide banks “uninterrupted” supplies of rubles. With most of Europe closing its airspace to Russian carriers, physically transporting cash into the country could become difficult. (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
  • Putin gathered central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina and other top officials in the Kremlin to discuss plans for a response, calling the U.S. and its allies who joined in the sanctions “the empire of lies.” (Bloomberg, 02.28.22)
• Russia’s second-largest oil producer Lukoil has become the first Russian company to denounce publicly the conflict in Ukraine. “Lukoil’s board of directors expresses its concern over the ongoing tragic events in Ukraine and its deepest sympathy to all those affected by this tragedy,” the company said in a statement posted on its website. “We urge a speedy cessation of the armed conflict and fully support its resolution through the negotiation process, through diplomatic means.” (Financial Times, 03.03.22)
• Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska has called for the end of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and for peace, while also condemning Western sanctions that he said would send the country’s economy into an extended crisis. “I am asked not to speak about this, but I very much want there to be peace first of all. Everyday there is loss,” said Deripaska. “People wonder whether the Iron Curtain will roll down or not. Well, the Iron Curtain has already rolled down. The harshest of crises now awaits Russia for at least three years. At least triple the 1998 crisis,” he told the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum on March 3. “The priority is to stop this … as soon as possible,” he said. “Then see who of our partners remains. I think we’ll be very surprised how many of them are left. We will be able to count them on the fingers of one hand. We need to stop the economic downfall.” (Financial Times, 03.03.22)
• Jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has called on Russians to take to the streets and demand to “stop the war” against Ukraine, calling President Vladimir Putin an "obviously insane czar." “We must, gritting our teeth and overcoming fear, come out and demand an end to the war,” Navalny tweeted via a spokesperson to his 2.6 million followers March 2. (The Moscow Times, 03.02.22)
• Two Russian MPs have submitted a draft law to parliament that would call up for military service in Ukraine any Russians detained for participating in antiwar protests. (Financial Times, 03.03.22)
• Russians leaving the country via a dwindling number of available routes are facing lengthy interrogations at airports, according to first-person accounts published by the MediaZona news website March 2. Several men told the outlet they were flagged at passport control, where some of them were escorted to nearby holding areas and asked about their stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At least two of them said they had their smartphones and laptops inspected for content including opposition and Ukrainian social media channels. (The Moscow Times, 03.02.22)
• Russia's parliament on March 4 passed a law imposing a jail term of up to 15 years for spreading intentionally "fake" news about the military, stepping up the information war over the conflict in Ukraine. (Reuters, 03.04.22)
• Russia’s media regulator said March 4 it will block access to Meta-owned Facebook in the country as it escalates pressure on media outlets and tech platforms amid its invasion of Ukraine. (CNBC, 03.04.22)
• Russia’s state internet regulator Roskomnadzor said on Feb. 26 that media can only publish official government reports about the conflict in Ukraine. If outlets fail to comply, Roskomnadzor has threatened to block their websites. In the same statement, Roskomnadzor announced an administrative investigation into at least 10 independent media outlets for their alleged mischaracterization of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The investigations could result in fines up to 5 million rubles. (CPJ, 02.28.22)
• Russia has blocked an independent TV channel and a liberal radio station, Dozhd TV and Ekho Moskvy radio, for spreading "deliberately false information" about Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Russian news agencies reported March 1. Dozhd said March 3 it was stopping work temporarily after being ordered to close by authorities for its broadcasts on Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, while Ekho’s board of directors voted to liquidate the station after Russia’s state censorship watchdog ordered its website blocked. (AFP, 03.01.22, AFP, 03.03.22, The Moscow Times, 03.03.22)
  • The chief editor of Dozhd TV Tikhon Dzyadko said in a statement on the Podyom Telegram channel on March 2 that he and several of his colleagues had left the country indefinitely amid a harsh crackdown by authorities on independent media outlets. (RFE/RL, 03.02.22)
• At least five Russian journalists are facing charges and dozens more were detained nationwide following their coverage of anti-war protests, which have sprung up across the country since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. (CPJ, 02.28.22)
• The editorial offices of RFE/RL's Russian Service received six notifications from Roskomnadzor late on March 2 in which the agency threatened to block the service's website amid ongoing coverage of the conflict in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
• Russia earlier cut access to several foreign news organizations' websites, including the BBC, Voice of America and Deutsche Welle, for spreading what it said was false information about its war in Ukraine. The BBC said it would temporarily suspend the work of all its journalists and support staff in Russia following the introduction of the new “fake news” law. (Reuters, 03.04.22)
• In the days leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian state media unleashed a flurry of articles online baselessly or misleadingly casting Ukrainians as aggressors and their government as a nuclear threat. According to researchers at Oxford University’s Program on Democracy and Technology, state-funded and state-run Russian news outlets including RT and Sputnik peppered the web with articles portraying Ukraine as instigators in the conflict the week before the invasion, echoing a consistent theme of Russian information operations. Last month, NewsGuard, a misinformation-tracking tech firm, identified three of the most common false narratives being propagated by Russian state media like RT, Sputnik and TASS: 1) The West staged a coup in 2014 to overthrow the Ukrainian government; 2) Ukrainian politics is dominated by Nazi ideology; 3) ethnic Russians in Ukraine's Donbas region have been subjected to genocide. (The Washington Post, 03.01.22, Axios, 02.22.22)
• Russia held an online open lesson for children March 3 to shape domestic opinion toward the invasion of Ukraine that has triggered worldwide condemnation and anti-war protests. The Education Ministry’s “Peace Defenders” lesson presented Moscow’s hotly contested version of events explaining why President Vladimir Putin ordered an attack on Russia’s democratically elected neighbor last week. “Students will be told why the liberation mission in Ukraine is a necessity,” the Education Ministry said in its announcement of Thursday’s open lesson. (The Moscow Times, 03.03.22)
• Russia's largest lender Sberbank said March 2 it was leaving the European market after coming under pressure from Western sanctions levelled against the state bank in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. (AFP, 03.02.22)
• Russian metals company Severstal said March 2 it was halting deliveries in Europe after the EU imposed sanctions on its main shareholder, metals magnate Alexei Mordashov. (AFP, 03.02.22)
• The central bank of Russia has already cancelled the repayment of coupons on the state’s bonds, but the ruble-denominated OFZ treasury bills are not the problem. The much bigger debt that needs to be serviced is Russia’s corporate debt, accounting for around two-thirds of Russia’s external debt repayments over the rest of this year, with a surge in payments of around $7 billion due just in March. Moreover, the corporates’ money is tied up in bank accounts and there is a nasty mismatch between banks’ dollar liabilities and their assets: Banks have $280 billion in dollar liabilities but only $46 billion in cash. With everyone already starting to line up at the door to the central bank for hand-outs getting hold of dollars to make these repayments has become more difficult, though not impossible. (bne IntelliNews, 03.04.22)
• Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich announced March 2 he is selling Chelsea FC, in a move to sever his ties with London. On Feb. 27, after mounting calls in the U.K. to sanction the businessman over reports of his past relationship with Putin, Abramovich had decided to give over "stewardship" of his Chelsea Football Club to trustees of the team’s charitable foundation. (The Moscow Times, 03.03.22, The Jerusalem Post, 02.28.22)

 

V. Other news

• The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog says Iran has sharply increased it stockpile of enriched uranium amid talks to revive a 2015 agreement to curb Tehran's atomic program. Several media outlets said the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) noted in its latest confidential quarterly report on March 3 that Iran now has more than 33.2 kilograms of highly enriched uranium with a purity of up to 60%, a level which means it can quickly be processed to create weapons-grade material. The director-general of the IAEA will travel to Iran on March 5 to meet with Iranian officials as Tehran and world powers continue to negotiate a possible return to the crippled nuclear agreement. (RFE/RL, 03.03.22, RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
• “Just a couple of days before the invasion of Ukraine in a little-noticed act, Azerbaijan signed a bilateral military agreement with Russia,” Fiona Hill told Politico in an interview published Feb. 28. “This is significant because Azerbaijan’s leader has been resisting this for decades.” (Russia Matters, 02.28.22)
• Armenian lawmakers have elected Vahagn Khachatrian as the country's new president following the sudden resignation of Armen Sarkisian in January. The former minister of high-tech industry won 71 votes in the second round of balloting among lawmakers on March 3, seven more than needed despite a boycott of the vote by opposition factions. Though he has no party affiliation, Khachatrian was supported by deputies from Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian's ruling Civil Contract party. (RFE/RL, 03.03.22)
• Bulgaria's Foreign Ministry says that it is expelling two Russian diplomats for allegedly spying, and has given them 48 hours to leave the country. Russia's state TASS news agency quoted the Russian Embassy in Sofia as saying Moscow would respond in kind to the expulsions. (RFE/RL, 03.02.22)