4 Things to Know

1. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have largely narrowed their differences to two core issues, NYT reported on Feb. 26. The first issue is guarantees of Ukraine’s postwar security, while the second is control of  heavily-fortified parts of the Donetsk region that Ukraine continues to control and where 190,000 people live, according to NYT. In an FT interview, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia and Ukraine are at “the beginning of the end,” while Donald Trump said in his SOTU speech that his team is “working very hard to end… the killing and slaughter between Russia and Ukraine.” The two presidents also spoke by phone this week, with Zelenskyy saying he hopes the war will end this year, and Trump replying that he would like the war to end in a month. Trump also told Zelenskyy he will work on making a Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy summit happen if the next meeting between U.S., Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, planned for early March in Abu Dhabi, makes more progress, according to Axios and Bloomberg.
2. Ukraine has received a formal démarche from the U.S. after its November drone strike on Russia hit a Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal part‑owned by Chevron and Exxon, according to an FT article, titled “Washington warns Ukraine over striking US economic interests in Russia.” U.S. officials warned Ukraine to “refrain from attacking American interests,” though the caution did not cover other Russian military or energy targets. At the same time, Russian strikes have damaged 47% of U.S. companies operating in Ukraine, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Kyiv, including facilities of Boeing, Flex and, most recently, Mondelez.
3. RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Jan. 27–Feb. 24, 2026) indicates that Russian forces have gained 50 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (area slightly larger than two Manhattan Islands) during that period, according to the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Additionally, Russian forces lost 33 square miles in the Feb. 17–24, 2026, period, according to the Feb. 25, 2026 issue of the card. However, according to a site that publishes data by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, Russian forces actually gained 5 square miles in the period of Feb. 17–24. 
4. After four years of full‑scale war, Russia has reengineered its economy around the conflict in Ukraine at a staggering cost, Paul Sonne reports in an NYT article. As many as 1.2 million Russians have been killed or wounded, including an estimated 325,000 troops, in a country whose prewar population was about 145 million and could, in pessimistic forecasts, sink below 100 million by 2100, according to the article. Nearly 40% of Russia’s  federal budget now goes to the military and security services, and another 9% to interest on war‑related debt, while the liquid portion of the National Wealth Fund has been cut in half to roughly $55 billion. Oil and gas revenues fell by almost a quarter last year and foreign investment has collapsed, even as at least 4,029 people have faced politically motivated criminal cases and hundreds of thousands have left the country, Sonne writes in NYT. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a local ceasefire around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to allow repairs to a key backup power line, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Friday. The truce in southern Ukraine is intended to enable restoration of a 330‑kilovolt supply line to Europe’s largest nuclear facility, which has been under Russian control since early in the invasion. “Demining activities are ongoing to ensure safe access for the repair teams,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi wrote on social media. The plant, which houses six of Ukraine’s 15 reactors, has recently been relying on external power for essential safety functions after damage to its grid connections reportedly caused by nearby military activity. Both sides have long accused each other of risking a catastrophic accident with strikes near the site. Russian state firm Rosatom said IAEA experts at the plant are monitoring the repairs. (CNBC, 02.27.26)
• Centrus Energy CEO Amir Vexler warned of a looming “gap between supply and demand” for enriched uranium as U.S. nuclear restarts, new reactors and a 2028 ban on Russian imports strain Western capacity. Enrichment prices have surged 167% since 2022 to a record $173 per separative work unit, while the U.S. has only 4.3 million SWU of domestic capacity versus 15.6 million SWU in annual needs and still sourced about one‑fifth of its enriched uranium from Russia in 2024 under temporary waivers. (Financial Times, 02.23.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• In his record‑long State of the Union address, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that while he prefers diplomacy, he will “never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror… to have a nuclear weapon,” vowing Iran “cannot” be permitted to rebuild its program and citing past U.S. strikes under “Operation Midnight Hammer.”“No nation should ever doubt America’s resolve. We have the most powerful military on Earth.” (RFE/RL, 02.25.26)
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry has accused the United States of irresponsibly escalating tensions around Iran. In a Feb. 26 briefing, ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow sees “nonstop threats against Tehran, saber-rattling and intimidation,” calling it “an irresponsible escalation of regional tensions by Washington.” She stressed that, despite the heightened strain, Russia and Iran will “continue to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation” between the two countries. (RENTV, 02.27.26)
• Leaked Russian documents show Iran secretly signed a roughly €500mn deal in December 2025 to buy 500 Verba man‑portable air-defense launchers, 2,500 9M336 missiles and 500 Mowgli‑2 night‑vision sights from Russia between 2027 and 2029, to rebuild air defenses “heavily degraded” in last year’s 12‑day war with Israel. The contract, arranged by U.S.-sanctioned MODAFL official Ruhollah Katebi via Rosoboronexport, prices missiles at €170,000 and launchers at €40,000 each, underscoring deepening Russia‑Iran military ties and Moscow’s disregard for renewed U.N. arms sanctions. (Financial Times, 02.22.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Trump to visit Kyiv “to see… Ukrainian suffering,” as European leaders including Ursula von der Leyen and Alexander Stubb traveled to the capital, while the only American official present was NATO representative Lt. Gen. Curtis Buzzard. British minister Al Carns called the war “the most defining conflict” in decades, driven by a “revolution in military affairs” in which drones now cause the vast majority of battlefield casualties; rebuilding Ukraine is projected to cost $588 billion over the next decade, nearly three times its 2025 nominal GDP. (Washington Post, 02.24.26) 
• Bellingcat says it has verified “over 2,500 cases of civilian harm” in Ukraine since February 2022, including hits on “more than 1,100 residential structures,” “more than 300” schools or childcare facilities, “170” healthcare or humanitarian sites, and “more than 100” cluster‑munition attacks. U.N. data cited put civilian casualties at about “15,000 killed – including more than 750 children – and 40,600 injured,” while ACLED records “more than 750” strikes on healthcare, “1,200” on educational sites, and “2,400” on energy infrastructure. (Bellingcat, 02.24.26)
• Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said Moscow has handed over the bodies of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers in a new exchange, while Ukraine returned the remains of 35 Russian troops. Ukraine’s Coordination Staff for POWs has not yet confirmed the swap. (Meduza, 02.26.26)
• A New York Times feature from Kyiv says many Ukrainians are exhausted by being branded “resilient” after four years of war, with one woman saying, “I see myself as a weak little girl who just wants to cry but can’t.” Psychologists warn that focusing on Ukrainians’ strength can mislead outsiders into thinking “they don’t need support,” while Zelenskyy has acknowledged people are “not made of steel” as blackouts, cold and family separations drag on. (New York Times, 02.25.26)
• The World Bank estimates that reconstruction of Ukraine will cost $588 billion over a decade. (RFE/RL, 02.24.26) 
• The New York Times reports that the EU’s plan to showcase support for Ukraine on the invasion’s fourth anniversary was “upended” when Hungary vowed to block both the bloc’s 20th Russia sanctions package and a €90bn ($106bn) aid loan that Kyiv needs “by this spring to avoid a budget crunch.” Budapest and Bratislava cite Druzhba pipeline disruptions and have halted diesel and emergency electricity supplies, moves critics call “blackmail” and a damaging signal of division. (New York Times, 02.23.26)
• Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico announced that, from Feb. 23, Slovakia is halting emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine, saying that if Kyiv asks for help “it will not receive it.” Calling this a first “reciprocal step,” he linked the move to what he called Zelenskyy’s “hostile actions,” including halts to Russian gas transit and Druzhba oil flows, and warned Bratislava could “reconsider” its support for Ukraine’s EU membership and take “further measures” if alleged damage to Slovak strategic interests continues. (Meduza, 02.23.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Jan. 27–Feb. 24, 2026) indicates that Russian forces have gained 50 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (area slightly larger than two Manhattan Islands) during that period, according to the Feb. 25, 2026, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 02.27.26)
• The IISS’s Military Balance 2026 estimates that after another year of fighting Russia has gained “less than a further 1%” of Ukrainian territory while suffering “over 1,000 casualties per day” for months, even as it recruits roughly 32,000–35,000 troops monthly and fields 600,000–700,000 soldiers in or near Ukraine. Russian defense spending has surged to an estimated 7.33% of GDP, while scaled‑up Geran‑2 production (up to 2,700 one‑way‑attack UAVs a month) and Ukrainian operations like 2025’s “Spiderweb” illustrate a war now defined by mass drone warfare, attrition and uncompromising war aims on both sides. (IISS, Military Balance 2026, Chapter Four: Russia and Eurasia)
• Meduza, summarizing new analysis by Mediazona and BBC Russian, says open-source obituaries now name 200,186 Russian soldiers confirmed killed, but notes this is a conservative count and that 2025 is likely the bloodiest year yet: only 49,935 deaths from 2025 have been processed so far, while “tens of thousands” of obituaries remain; preliminary estimates suggest last year’s toll could exceed 90,000. Losses fall heaviest on poorer, small-town regions such as Tyva (476 deaths per 100,000 residents) and Buryatia (400), while Russia’s million-plus cities remain “largely untouched.” (Meduza, 02.24.26)
  • Meduza argues that widely cited estimates of Russia losing 50,000 soldiers a month are inflated by data distortions. Using inheritance records and court data, it finds that a late‑2025 surge in recorded deaths mostly reflects a mass retroactive reclassification of long-missing soldiers as dead—about 90,000 such cases—plus better obituary coverage, not a dramatic battlefield spike. Correcting for this, Meduza estimates current Russian irreversible losses at roughly 900 per day (about 27,000 per month), including killed and permanently incapacitated—“barely half of Zelenskyy’s target,” and likely not yet enough to trigger a near-term strategic collapse. (Meduza, 02.25.26)
• ISW estimates Russia’s casualties have now outpaced its recruitment: in January 2026, losses exceeded the monthly intake of roughly 32,000–35,000 new troops that had previously allowed Moscow to sustain a 600,000–700,000‑strong force in or near Ukraine. With defense outlays around 7%+ of GDP, labor shortages, inflation, and falling oil‑and‑gas revenues, the Kremlin is struggling to keep funding large enlistment bonuses and is “clearly considering” unpopular measures such as rolling involuntary reserve call‑ups to maintain current offensive tempo. (ISW, 02.24.26)

Friday, Feb. 20, 2026

• On Feb. 20, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Platonivka, Bondarne and Pryvillia. (RM, 02.27.26)       

Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026

• On Feb. 21, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back Russian forces near Kalynivske and in Ternove, and that Russian forces advanced in Pokrovsk and Svyato-Pokrovske. (RM, 02.27.26)       
• Ukraine is continuing a deep‑strike campaign using domestically produced FP‑5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles against high‑value targets deep inside Russia, according to ISW and the Washington Post. ISW reports that Kyiv struck the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Udmurtia—producer of Yars ICBMs, Bulava SLBMs, Iskander‑M and Kinzhal missiles—as well as the Neftegorsk gas processing plant in Samara Oblast, where NASA heat data showed fires. The Post says the Flamingo strike on Votkinsk, more than 1,400 km from Ukraine, wounded 11 people and ignited a blaze at one of Russia’s key missile factories, and notes it came as U.S.‑brokered peace talks again stalled. ISW also cites pro‑Ukrainian hackers claiming Russia is using Belarusian civilian infrastructure, including cell towers, to route drones that have crossed into Polish airspace as part of a broader “Phase Zero” effort to destabilize NATO. The Post reports Russia responded with 120 drones and one ballistic missile, 106 of which Ukraine says it shot down, while others hit energy and civilian targets in Odesa and elsewhere. (Washington Post, 02.26.26, ISW, 02.21.26)

Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026

• On Feb. 22, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovka, Nikiforivka, Lypivka and near Platonivka.  (RM, 02.27.26)       
• On the eve of the invasion’s fourth anniversary, Russia launched one of its largest winter barrages against Ukraine’s power grid, firing 50 missiles and 297 drones, the New York Times reports. Ukrainian air defenses said they shot down 33 of the 50 missiles and 274 of the 297 drones. A 49‑year‑old man was killed near Kyiv and at least 15 people were injured, as ballistic strikes hit around 4 a.m. in –10°C temperatures, according to the Times and Moscow Times/AFP. The nationwide alert prompted Poland to scramble jets amid the long‑range strikes. In Lviv, officials described a twin bombing as a Russian‑orchestrated “terrorist attack”: a first blast near the opera house drew police before a second explosion, killing a 23‑year‑old policewoman and injuring between 24 and 25 people, six seriously, the Times and Financial Times write. Ukrainian authorities arrested a 33‑year‑old woman from Rivne region, accusing her of planting the devices on orders from a Russian security‑service “curator.” (New York Times, 02.22.26, New York Times, 02.22.26, Moscow Times/AFP, 02.22.26, Financial Times, 02.22.26)
• Ukraine’s “kill zone” is now dominated by drones and countermeasures: officials say drones account for “as much as 80 per cent of Russian battlefield deaths,” while Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces conduct “more than 100,000 drone flights a month.” Kherson region was shelled “235,000 times” and hit by nearly “100,000” drone attacks in 2025 alone, destroying “more than 40,000 buildings” and killing at least 307 people, with only about 145,000 residents remaining in government‑controlled areas. (Financial Times, 02.22.26) 

Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

• On Feb. 23, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Nykyforivka. (RM, 02.27.26)       
• ISW says Russia launched a massive overnight strike on Feb. 21–22, firing 347 drones and missiles at Ukraine, including 297 Shahed/Gerbera/Italmas‑type drones (about 200 Shaheds) and 50 missiles (4 Zirkon, 22 Iskander‑M/S‑400, 18 Kh‑101, plus Iskander‑K and Kh‑59/69). Ukraine’s air force reported shooting down 274 drones and 33 missiles, while 14 missiles and 23 drones hit 14 locations, increasingly targeting water and railway infrastructure as well as civilian sites. (ISW, 02.22.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026

• On Feb. 24, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zakitne.  (RM, 02.27.26)       
• ISW says the fifth year of the invasion is “not beginning well for Moscow,” with Ukrainian forces launching localized counterattacks that have delivered their biggest territorial gains since the 2023 counteroffensive and the 2024 Kursk raid. Around Kupyansk, Ukraine retook at least 183 sq km in December and has held it, while February counterattacks in the Novopavlivka–Oleksandrivka–Hulyaipole sector yielded a net gain of about 165 sq km, aided in some areas by Russian command‑and‑control problems after Starlink and Telegram restrictions. (ISW, 02.24.26)
• Marking four years since the full‑scale invasion, Zelenskyy said Russia has “not broken Ukrainians; he has not won this war,” noting that over the past year Moscow’s “bigger and better equipped army” captured just 0.79% of Ukraine’s territory and now holds nearly 20%, according to the Institute for the Study of War. He declared, “We have defended our independence, we have not lost our statehood.” (Washington Post, 02.24.26)
• The Economist’s modeling, combining official, independent and its own war‑tracker data, estimates Russian military casualties at 1.1–1.4 million, including 230,000–430,000 dead—implying about one in 25 Russian men aged 18–49 have been killed or severely wounded. A CSIS estimate cited puts Ukrainian casualties at about 600,000 (100,000–140,000 dead). (The Economist, 02.24.26)
• The Wall Street Journal, drawing on CSIS and European defense intelligence, says Russian military losses total about 1.2 million, including up to 325,000 killed—more than double Ukraine’s—and that Russia is now recruiting 30,000–35,000 soldiers per month but still losing more than it replaces. Moscow gained only about 0.8% of Ukrainian territory last year, and key offensives are advancing as slowly as 16 yards a day in places such as Chasiv Yar, while Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken Kupyansk and roughly 39–115 square miles in Zaporizhzhia-area “grey zones.” (Wall Street Journal, 02.24.26) 
• Citing Ukrainian intelligence, Zelenskyy said Russia’s 2025 advances in Donetsk cost “an average of 167 people per kilometer of occupied territory,” arguing that where Russia claims to hold ground “you can see they are not holding anything,” while “on the contrary, we have advanced” on the south‑eastern front, helped by blocking Russian forces’ unauthorized use of Elon Musk’s Starlink system. (Financial Times, 02.23.26)
• The Telegraph reports Ukrainian drone units around Pokrovsk claim kill ratios of “25 Russians for each comrade they lose,” with frontline officers saying Russian casualty ratios are “never less than 10” to one. Western officials cited by the paper estimate Russia has suffered about 1.2 million casualties, including 800,000 since 2024, and is currently losing nearly 40,000 soldiers a month while recruiting up to 35,000. (The Telegraph, 02.24.26)
• Russia's personnel casualties of over 1,250,000 killed and wounded have undermined Russia's force quality… Despite the costs imposed on its ground forces, Russia has been able to impose constant pressure on Ukrainian defenses. (U.K. MOD X Account, 02.24.26)
• The Washington Post reports that as the invasion enters its fifth year, more than 385,000 Ukrainian teenagers are enrolled in a revamped mandatory “Protecting Ukraine” course that teaches weapons handling, battlefield tactics, trauma medicine, mine safety, radio use, and how to respond to attacks on energy infrastructure. The Education Ministry spent $2.3 million training teachers last year; officials say the goal is to build a “defense mentality” and prepare civilians for a long-term threat from Russia. (Washington Post, 02.24.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026

• On Feb. 25, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Riznykivka, Pazeno and Pryvillia. (RM, 02.27.26)       
• Foreign Policy says Ukraine’s long‑range double drone strike on Russia’s Kaleykino pumping station at Almetyevsk—origin of the Druzhba pipeline—was calibrated to hit “two birds with one drone,” cutting into both Moscow’s oil revenues and the supply lifeline of Hungary and Slovakia, just after Viktor Orbán blocked a €90bn EU loan to Kyiv over Druzhba repairs. The attack highlights Ukraine’s expanding ability to launch deep strikes with drones and Flamingo missiles, giving it more leverage even as Washington pressures Kyiv for concessions. (Foreign Policy, 02.25.26)

Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

• On Feb. 26, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Chasiv Yar. (RM, 02.27.26)       
• ISW assesses that Russia has likely completed its seizure of Pokrovsk (pre‑war pop. 60,000) sometime in recent weeks, after a nearly two‑year campaign, but has “failed to capitalize” on the gain: there have been no significant advances west or northwest, and even nearby Hryshyne remains contested. The think tank concludes Pokrovsk’s fall does not make the capture of Donetsk’s heavily fortified “Fortress Belt” (Kramatorsk–Sloviansk axis) “imminent or inevitable,” contrary to Kremlin claims. (ISW, 02.25.26)
• On the eve of new U.S.–Ukraine talks in Geneva, Russia launched a “massive” air assault on Ukraine, firing hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles at energy infrastructure and residential areas. ISW says Russia’s Feb. 25–26 barrage comprised 420 drones and 39 missiles, its fourth strike of 400+ projectiles this month. Ukraine’s air force reports shooting down 374 drones and 32 missiles, with 5 missiles and 46 drones hitting 32 locations and debris falling on 15 more. DTEK says strikes have caused “colossal destruction” to 45% of its large substations in Odesa region. The New York Times says Russian drones and missiles hit at least eight Ukrainian regions and wounded more than 20 people just hours before Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met chief negotiator Rustem Umerov in Geneva to discuss a “prosperity package” and the next round of trilateral talks, highlighting how battlefield escalation continues alongside diplomacy. Ukrainian officials linked the attack to Kremlin efforts to maintain leverage in U.S.-brokered negotiations, which remain deadlocked over territory Russia claims as its own. (Financial Times, 02.26.26, (ISW, 02.26.26, New York Times, 02.26.26, Washington Post, 02.26.26, RFE/RL, 02.26.26)
• Russia’s only optical‑fiber plant, Optic Fiber Systems in Saransk, has been shut down since April–May 2025 after a series of Ukrainian drone strikes, and has yet to resume operations, Russian media report. The plant’s 4 million‑km annual capacity had supplied about 20 domestic cable factories; they now depend 100% on Chinese fiber, of which Russia consumed about 10.5% of global production (some 60 million km) in 2025, driven by telecom needs and the war’s drone boom. (Korrespondent.net, 02.26.26)
• Drone strikes hit multiple sites across Russia, including a chemical plant where officials say at least seven people were killed. Ukrainian authorities have not confirmed involvement, though Kyiv says it recently struck a defense facility deep inside Russian territory. (RFE/RL, 02.26.26)
• Ukrainian drone strikes killed two people and injured six others in the border regions of Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk over the past 24 hours, local authorities said. (MT/AFP, 02.26.26)

Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

• In Kharkiv region, a Russian strike injured five civilians, including a 4‑year‑old boy and a 9‑year‑old girl, and set a private house on fire, regional police said. (Korrespondent.net, 02.27.26)
• Ukrainian analyst Ivan Kyrychevskyi told RBC that Russia has fired “more than 12,000 missiles of all types” at Ukraine since February 2022, including 6,600 in the first year alone, and that overall “the intensity of strikes is falling” despite recent mass attacks. He said Russia’s current production cannot sustain early‑war tempos, while Ukraine’s air defenses—using Western interceptors with 20–25‑month production cycles—downed 406 of 459 targets in the latest combined strike, including all Kh‑101 cruise missiles and Zircon anti‑ship missiles. (RBC.ua, 02.27.26) 
• A Ukrainian drone killed an employee of an auto repair shop and injured three others in the southwestern Kursk region, local authorities said Feb. 27. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it shot down an unspecified number of Ukrainian drones in the skies above the Kursk region between Feb. 26 and Feb. 27. Overall, it reported destroying 95 unmanned aircraft across the country. (MT/AFP, 02.27.26)
• iStories reports that central Russia saw its first‑ever nationwide “missile danger” alerts in at least eight regions (including Bashkortostan, Sverdlovsk, Perm Krai, Tatarstan, Orenburg, Samara, Chuvashia, Udmurtia), plus additional alerts in Penza and Rostov, amid Ukrainian Flamingo cruise‑missile attacks. Russian channels claim three Flamingos were shot down, one over Taganrog; earlier strikes hit a GRAU ammo bunker in Volgograd region and the Votkinsk missile plant in Udmurtia at a range of about 1,500 km, with a stated maximum Flamingo range of 3,000 km. (iStories, 02.27.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026

• European investors are backing low‑cost air‑defense start-ups to close one of NATO’s biggest capability gaps. Munich‑based Tytan Technologies, whose AI‑guided interceptor drones are already deployed in Ukraine, raised €30mn led by the NATO Innovation Fund, planning to produce 3,000 interceptors a month by year‑end. Estonia’s Frankenburg Technologies raised another €30mn to build “affordable” missile systems, aiming for two EU mass‑production sites each making over 100 missiles per day. (Financial Times, 02.24.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026

• ISW notes Ukraine’s allies marked the war’s fourth anniversary with fresh aid: Lithuania is sending 30 RBS‑70 MANPADS missiles; Canada pledged C$2 billion (~$1.4bn) in military support for 2026‑27 plus over 400 armored vehicles (66 LAV‑6 APCs and 383 Senator MRAPs); and Estonia will add €11 million for air defense and ammunition via NATO’s PURL mechanism that funds purchases of U.S. weapons for Kyiv. (ISW, 02.25.26)

Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

• Ukrainian officers told the FT many Western drones arrive obsolete and are cannibalized for parts, while U.K. minister Al Carns warned that software often needs “20–30” upgrades to penetrate Russian electronic warfare. (Financial Times, 02.26.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026

• Paolo Zampolli, Trump’s special representative for global partnerships, backed Russian participation in next month’s Paralympics, texting that “sport is for all” as European leaders and Ukraine condemned the decision and Kyiv vowed to boycott the opening ceremony. His stance aligns with IOC president Kirsty Coventry’s call for sport as “neutral ground,” and comes as FIFA’s president says he wants Russia back in international soccer competitions, signaling momentum to end its pariah status. (New York Times, 02.21.26)

Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

• Arguing that “what costs the Russians dearly” is hitting their finances, Zelenskyy urged Trump to “stop their shadow fleet, stop their companies, their ability to trade, to export energy resources from Russia, [and] stop sanctions evasion,” adding: “I hope President Trump and the U.S. will pressure Russia and stop Putin. But I rely primarily on Ukrainian citizens, our army, our production.” (Financial Times, 02.23.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026

• Russia-focused outlet Mediazona reports that the U.S. and Canada marked the war’s fourth anniversary with fresh sanctions: Washington targeted four individuals and three Russia-linked cybersecurity firms (Advance Security Solutions, Matrix, Operation Zero), while Ottawa sanctioned 21 people, 53 entities, and 100 ships from Russia’s “shadow fleet,” and lowered its oil price cap on Russian crude from $47.60 to $44.10 per barrel. Canada also pledged $2 billion in military aid to Ukraine over the next two years. (Mediazona, 02.24.26)
• Marking the war’s fourth anniversary, Western allies unveiled major new Russia sanctions. Mediazona reports the U.S. targeted four individuals and three Russia‑linked cybersecurity firms—Advance Security Solutions, Matrix and Operation Zero—while Canada sanctioned 21 people, 53 entities and 100 ships from Russia’s “shadow fleet,” cut its oil price cap on Russian crude from $47.60 to $44.10 per barrel, and pledged $2 billion in military aid to Ukraine over two years. According to the Financial Times and the Moscow Times, the U.K. announced its “biggest sanctions package” since 2022, hitting nearly 300 targets, including pipeline operator Transneft, which carries over 80% of Russian crude exports; 48 “shadow fleet” tankers; nine LNG firms; nine Russian banks; dozens of tech suppliers; and roughly 175 companies linked to the Dubai‑based “2Rivers Network,” described as one of the world’s largest illicit oil operators. (Financial Times, 02.24.26, The Moscow Times, 02.24.26, Bloomberg, 02.24.26) 
• A new report by Transparency International Russia finds that, despite sanctions and supply-chain disruption after the full-scale invasion, Russian firms have continued to use British offshore jurisdictions as key trade channels. From Feb. 2022 to January 2025, companies registered in U.K. overseas territories handled at least $8 billion in Russia‑linked trade and more than 29,000 transactions, helping Russian businesses keep buying equipment, selling raw materials, and moving assets via these offshore hubs. (Transparency International Russia, 02.25.26) 

Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

• An investigation by Transparency International Russia, cited by Korrespondent.net, found that despite sanctions Russian officials and businessmen imported 160 yachts between 2022 and early 2024 via companies registered in British overseas territories, often routing them through the Black Sea to Sochi and occupied Crimea. Beneficiaries allegedly include sanctioned senator Suleiman Kerimov, Kremlin chief of staff Anton Vaino, ex‑president Dmitry Medvedev, Primorye governor Oleg Kozhemyako, and Putin ally Viktor Medvedchuk. (Korrespondent.net, 02.26.26)

Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

• Swiss authorities revoked the license of MBaer Merchant Bank AG over evidence it helped clients evade sanctions, saying it had been a risk to the country and its financial system. The announcement from financial regulator Finma comes a day after the US proposed cutting off MBaer from its financial system because of alleged links to Iran and Russia. (Bloomberg, 02.27.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026

• U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News that American mediation could lead within “the next three weeks” to a first in‑person meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, and “possibly” a three‑way summit including Donald Trump. Witkoff said he and Jared Kushner are “optimistic” their initiatives can narrow differences, adding Putin has been “completely candid” with him about his “red lines” during eight meetings. Zelenskyy has repeatedly said he’s ready to meet Putin in a neutral venue. (Meduza, 02.22.26) 
• Former U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson urged Britain and European allies to send “peaceful ground forces” to non-frontline areas of Ukraine before a ceasefire, arguing there is “no logical reason” to wait and that troops now would show real commitment to a “free, independent Ukraine.” Current plans by a “coalition of the willing” envisage deployments only after a deal to police a ceasefire; the U.K. Defense Ministry reaffirmed that British troops would go in only “following the end of hostilities.” (Washington Post, 02.26.26)

Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

• In an FT interview on the eve of the invasion’s fourth anniversary, Zelenskyy said Russia and Ukraine are at “the beginning of the end” of Europe’s biggest war since 1945, but urged Washington to see through Putin’s negotiating “games.” (Financial Times, 02.23.26)
  • Zelenskyy warned that without firm Western security guarantees Moscow would use any ceasefire to rebuild its forces for a new assault. (Financial Times, 02.23.26)
  • Zelenskyy dismissed Putin’s claim that Ukraine would use a truce to regroup as “demagoguery and lies,” arguing that “a pause is needed by them no less than by us” because Moscow is mobilizing 40,000 troops a month and losing 35,000. “Ukraine needs a ceasefire — yesterday, today, tomorrow,” he said. “We don’t need a pause. We need the end of the war.” (Financial Times, 02.23.26)
  • Zelenskyy said U.S. officials believe Putin would halt the war if Kyiv handed over the eastern Donbas, an idea he called dangerously short‑sighted. (Financial Times, 02.23.26)
• Presidential office chief Kyrylo Budanov said the next round of Russia‑Ukraine‑U.S. talks is planned for Feb. 26–27, though the exact date is “not yet confirmed” as “all three sides” plus the host country must agree. Russian state agency TASS similarly reported that talks could resume in Geneva on Feb. 26. Budanov said Kyiv has raised the idea of a Zelenskyy–Putin meeting, but “the Russian side has not yet given a final answer.” (Meduza, 02.23.26)
• In a BBC interview, Zelenskyy said Putin has “already started the Third World War,” arguing Russia seeks to “bring its own world” and change lives people “like.” Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine will not make territorial concessions, saying withdrawal would mean “abandoning hundreds of thousands of our people” and “dividing our society.” He warned Putin would only use any pause to rearm for “a couple of years,” while Europe estimates three to five, and said victory means restoring normal life and eliminating the global threat he believes Putin poses. (Meduza, 02.23.26) 
• As the war enters its fifth year, the U.N. General Assembly voted 107–12 for a resolution demanding an “immediate ceasefire and a comprehensive peace,” with 51 abstentions including the United States, which opposed language emphasizing Ukraine’s territorial integrity on the grounds it would “distract” from ongoing peace talks. (Washington Post, 02.24.26) 

Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026

• In his State of the Union address, Trump said his administration is “working very hard to end… the killing and slaughter between Russia and Ukraine, where 25,000 soldiers are dying each and every month,” adding the war “would never have happened if I were president.” He claimed he had secured a new 5 percent of GDP defense‑spending pledge from NATO members and that “everything we send over to Ukraine is sent through NATO, and they pay us in full,” while asserting U.S. armed forces are setting recruitment records. (New York Times, 02.24.26)
  • Ahead of Trump’s State of the Union, Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S., Olga Stefanishyna, said Kyiv did not expect him to say anything “inspiring,” “positive,” or “new” about the war, but stressed it was important he know Ukraine “still relied heavily on his leadership.” She added: “We do not take for granted the very fact that the president of the United States has undertaken the personal commitment to end the war in Ukraine.” (Wall Street Journal, 02.25.26)
• A New York Times report from Sloviansk says Trump‑brokered peace talks are centered on ceding the remaining Ukrainian‑held part of Donetsk in exchange for a promise of peace—an idea many locals reject. About 190,000 people, including 12,000 children, live in the area that could be traded. CSIS estimates cited in the piece put total Russian military casualties at 1.2 million and Ukrainian at 600,000, while ISW calculates that in January Russia lost 225 soldiers per square mile of Donetsk it seized. (New York Times, 02.24.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026

• Another round of U.S.-led trilateral talks may take place around March 4-5, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity. (Bloomberg, 02.25.26)
• In remarks in St. Kitts on Feb. 25, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the Trump administration’s Ukraine policy, insisting Washington has “continued to increase pressure on Moscow,” citing new sanctions on Rosneft and ongoing weapons sales to Kyiv. He argued the United States is “the only country or only entity on the planet that’s been able to achieve having Russian negotiators and Ukrainian negotiators sit at a table,” warning that if Washington “forfeit[s] that role, no one else can do it.” While declining to say how long Trump’s patience will last, Rubio said the president feels “deep frustration” with a “completely stupid and senseless war in which every single week 7-8,000 soldiers are being killed,” causing “tremendous damage to Russia” and “generational damage in Ukraine.” Asked why frustration is directed at both Zelenskyy and Putin, he replied that U.S. support has enabled Ukraine to “sustain this war” while sanctions target Russia, not Kyiv. (U.S. State Department, 02.25.26)
• ISW says Moscow has run a “reflexive control” campaign targeting the British‑ and French‑led “Coalition of the Willing,” with some European officials now privately saying any peace‑keeping or deterrence force for post‑war Ukraine must have Putin’s “permission.” By echoing threats to treat foreign troops as “legitimate targets” and pushing baseless SVR claims that Britain and France plan to give Kyiv a “dirty bomb,” the Kremlin has “essentially handed Putin a veto” over Western security guarantees, which ISW calls vital to any durable peace—especially if Ukraine is pressured into territorial concessions. (ISW, 02.25.26)

Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

• In a phone conversation, Trump told Zelenskyy he wants to push for an end of the war with Russia as soon as possible, according to a Ukrainian official and two other sources with knowledge of the call. A Ukrainian official and another source said Zelenskyy thanked Trump for all his help and said only Trump can get Putin to stop the war. "Zelenskyy then said he hopes the war will finish this year, and Trump replied that the war has been going on for far too long and said he would like the war to end in a month," one of the sources said. Trump told Zelenskyy he will work on making such a trilateral [Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy] summit happen if the next meeting between U.S., Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, planned for early March, makes more progress. "We expect this meeting to create an opportunity to move talks to the leaders' level. President Trump supports this sequence of steps. This is the only way to resolve all the complex and sensitive issues and finally end the war," Zelenskyy wrote on X. Another round of U.S.-led trilateral talks may take place around March 4-5, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity. (Axios, 02.26.26, Bloomberg, 02.25.26)
• Bilateral U.S.–Ukraine talks in Geneva have wrapped up with preparations already underway for the next negotiating round, Ukrainian chief negotiator Rustem Umerov said on X, according to Anadolu Agency. He said discussions were held in two formats—separate sessions with the U.S. side and a trilateral meeting including Switzerland—and that he and MP Davyd Arakhamia later joined U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on a joint call to brief Zelenskyy. Umerov said “the next round is being prepared” as teams finalize “security parameters, economic decisions and agreed positions” for a more substantive trilateral meeting with Russia, with particular attention to long‑term economic support, recovery and prisoner exchanges. Geneva Solutions reports the talks at the Four Seasons focused on “practical solutions” and a long‑term “prosperity package” for Ukraine, said to be worth about $800 billion over 10 years, alongside quiet, separate U.S. contacts with Russian sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev on future economic cooperation. (Geneva Solutions, 02.26.26, Anadolu Agency, 02.26.26).
• Zelenskyy said Feb. 26 that he expects a new round of peace talks with Russia to be held next month in Abu Dhabi in early March, coming after U.S. envoys held separate talks with Russian and Ukrainian officials in Geneva. "As a result of today's meetings, there is already more readiness for the next trilateral format," Zelenskyy said. "We need to finalize everything that has been achieved in terms of real security guarantees and prepare for a meeting at the leadership level," he said. "This format can solve a lot," Zelenskyy said, referring to a potential meeting with Putin. (MT/AFP, 02.27.26)
• Witkoff said, "Any peace agreement… will require Ukraine’s full confidence that Russia will not return to aggression." (New York Post, 02.26.26)

Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

• In an interview, Zelenskyy said that while a full Ukrainian victory now would require “too many” lives, “Russia also cannot achieve victory on the battlefield,” stressing that “they are not winning, and we are not losing.” He rejected suggestions to “simply” hand over Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, noting that withdrawal would leave some 200,000 people under Russian occupation, where they could be “killed, sent to the front, or jailed” as in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea. (RBC.ua, 02.27.26)
• Presidential chief of staff (described as “head of the OP”) Andriy Yermak—paraphrased in RBC as “Budanov” in the headline—said Ukraine should not “wait for the fall of Putin,” arguing that “regime changes in Russia have never changed its essence” and that the only safe scenario is to “create conditions under which Russia will disappear as an empire.” He said several regional states should eventually emerge on Russian territory, each focused on its own people’s welfare, so that “Ukraine, Europe and the whole world will feel safer.” (RBC.ua, 02.27.26)
• Witkoff told a gathering of the Yalta European Strategy that “[The U.S.] is not imposing anything on Ukraine… Territorial issues could be solved through direct Zelenskyy-Putin talks.” (The Times of India, 02.27.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026

• A Wall Street Journal report from Svalbard’s Russian-run mining town Barentsburg describes a de facto Russian enclave on NATO soil: salaries in rubles, Russian TV, schools following Moscow’s curriculum and a dominant tricolor flag. Norwegian officials fear Russia’s growing Arctic military footprint and statements questioning Oslo’s sovereignty, while some in Norway debate whether to place military assets on Svalbard despite a 1920 treaty barring “warlike” use, warning the islands could be an early “domino” in a NATO–Russia clash. (Wall Street Journal, 02.26.26)

Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026

• ECB president Christine Lagarde said the current U.S. administration’s “abrupt approach” feels “fundamentally different,” citing two “breaking points”: when the U.S. “decided to stop providing intelligence to Ukraine for a period of time,” and Trump’s “claim on Greenland, which is a clear violation of international law.” She said Europe sees both Democratic and Republican presidents as increasingly hostile to the “rules that we had grown up with.” (Wall Street Journal, 02.22.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026

• In his State of the Union address, Trump also claimed that NATO members had agreed to raise defense spending to 5 percent of GDP “really easily in one meeting,” saying that “everything we send over to Ukraine is sent through NATO, and they pay us in full… totally in full,” and that “every branch of our armed forces is setting records for recruitment.” (New York Times, 02.24.26)
• The IISS Military Balance 2026 shows a “two‑speed arms race”: global defense spending hit a record $2.63tn in 2025, but U.S. outlays fell 7.1% in real terms while Europe’s surged, lifting its share of global spending from 17% in 2022 to “more than 21%.” Germany accounts for “much of this uplift,” and most NATO members have now pledged to raise defense- and defense‑related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% for core military outlays. Russia’s own wartime surge has also cooled. Military expenditure rose 3 per cent in real terms in 2025, after a near 57 per cent jump the previous year. Even so, defence spending still absorbs more than 7.3 per cent of GDP — the third-highest share in the world, after Ukraine (21.2 per cent) and Algeria (8.8 per cent). (Financial Times, 02.24.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026

• Ireland’s first national maritime security strategy seeks deeper cooperation with the U.K. and other NATO states to protect undersea cables from intensified Russian surveillance, including potential JEF+ activities and, if needed, U.K. and French naval assistance during Dublin’s EU presidency. Though officially neutral, Ireland has been criticized for under‑investing in defense while Russian spy ships “regularly” loiter near vital cables in its shallow waters, heightening concern that Moscow could target digital infrastructure in any wider confrontation linked to the Ukraine war. (Financial Times, 02.25.26)

Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

• Russia has planned or carried out at least 151 hostile operations in Europe since invading Ukraine in February 2022, according to a report by the Netherlands-based International Center for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) this week. The figure includes only cases in which completed investigations or available evidence allow responsibility to be “confidently” attributed to Moscow, the report said. “As such, it is reasonable to assume that the actual number of incidents, particularly in the most recent period investigated, is likely higher,” the authors wrote. (MT/AFP, 02.26.26)

Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

• The Kremlin said Feb. 27 it was "absurd" to suggest that a drone jammed near a French aircraft carrier in Sweden earlier this week was Russian, after Swedish authorities said there was a "strong link" to Moscow. Stockholm said a Swedish navy vessel spotted and jammed the drone on Feb. 25 in the Oresund Strait, around 13 kilometers (eight miles) from France's Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, which was there at a stopover on the way to a NATO exercise. On Feb. 26, Sweden's Defense Minister Pal Jonson told the broadcaster SVT that the drone "probably" came from Russia, "as there was a Russian military vessel in the immediate vicinity at the time." When asked about the allegation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists it was "quite an absurd statement." He said the Kremlin had no information about the incident. (MT/AFP, 02.27.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Chinese fiber‑optic producers have sharply raised prices amid global AI‑driven demand, with average costs per kilometer rising from $2.34 to $5.84 in 2025, and prices for Russian buyers up 2.5–4 times, according to Vedomosti. Russia bought over 10% of the world’s fiber output last year, much of it for tethered drones that use optical cable to evade Ukrainian electronic warfare, leaving Ukrainian forests “wrapped in a web” of fiber. (iStories, 02.26.26)
• The South China Morning Post reports China’s consulate in Russia warned its citizens about a November 2025 Russian law requiring foreign or stateless men aged 18–65 seeking residency or citizenship to serve at least one year in the Russian military, with exceptions only for Belarusians, those already having served, or those deemed unfit. ISW says the move, together with migrant round‑ups, marks a “significant escalation” in coercive recruitment and may foreshadow rolling call‑ups of Russia’s involuntary reserve. (ISW, 02.26.26)
• Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, delivering the Democratic response to Trump’s State of the Union, accused him of “bowing down to Russia and China” and “jeopardizing America’s reputation as a force for good,” saying he had appointed “deeply unserious people to our nation’s most serious positions.” She noted he “barely mentioned China” ahead of a planned state visit to meet Xi Jinping and said his speech “lied, scapegoated and distracted” while offering “no real solutions.” (Financial Times, 02.25.26)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026

• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that if nuclear weapons “aimed at us” are ever deployed on Estonian territory, “our nuclear weapons will be aimed at the territory of Estonia,” saying Tallinn “must clearly understand this.” He added Russia will “always do what is necessary” for its security, especially in nuclear deterrence. His remarks followed Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna saying Estonia is ready to host allied nuclear weapons if NATO deems it necessary. (Meduza, 02.22.26)

Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

• In a midnight Defender of the Fatherland Day address, Putin said that “the development of the nuclear triad … remains an absolute priority,” stressing that modernizing Russia’s land‑, sea‑ and air‑based nuclear forces is central to its strategy. The Kremlin added that, even after New START’s expiry, Russia will take a “responsible” approach and continue to respect the treaty’s numerical limits on strategic warheads and launchers despite the lack of a binding pact with the United States. (The Moscow Times, 02.23.26) 
• A U.S. delegation to the U.N. Conference on Disarmament in Geneva met Russian officials on Feb. 23 and will meet Chinese counterparts on Feb. 24 to discuss nuclear weapons, as the Trump administration seeks a new round of arms control talks with both Moscow and Beijing just weeks after the New START treaty expired. (Bloomberg, 02.23.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026

• Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) accused Ukraine of trying to obtain a nuclear weapon or “dirty bomb” with help from Britain and France, claiming London and Paris believe Kyiv would get better peace terms if it had such a device. Ukraine called the allegation an “absurd” lie, while both governments dismissed it as “blatant disinformation.” Moscow warned again of the risks of “direct military confrontation between nuclear powers” and said it would brief the U.S. on its claims. (Reuters, 02.24.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026

• At an FSB board meeting on Feb. 24, Putin framed Russia as under “individual and mass terror” from its adversaries and claimed most recent attacks were “undoubtedly perpetrated by Ukrainian special services and their foreign handlers.” Citing media reports about alleged Western “attempts, or plans, to use some kind of a nuclear component,” he issued a warning: “They should know how that may end.” He also alleged a plot to blow up the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines, saying enemies were trying to “derail everything that has been… achieved” on the negotiation track. (Kremlin, 02.24.26) 
• Russia’s anti-missile defenses around Moscow may be enough to blunt an attack by Europe’s submarine-launched ballistic missiles, increasing pressure on the continent to develop new hypersonic weapons at a time when its leaders fret over the reliability of the U.S. as an ally. (Bloomberg, 02.25.26)

Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia will raise the “nuclear question” at the next round of U.S.–Ukraine–Russia talks, calling it a factor “from which we cannot abstract,” after Moscow’s SVR accused the U.K. and France of plotting to give Kyiv nuclear or “dirty” bombs—claims Western governments and Ukraine have dismissed as baseless. Peskov also said the U.S. continues to link any economic co‑operation with Russia to progress on the Ukraine settlement. (Korrespondent.net, 02.26.26) 

Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Putin has created a presidential commission on artificial intelligence chaired by top officials including Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov, and former Putin bodyguard–turned–aide Alexei Dyumin, alongside Sberbank head Herman Gref and ex‑Yandex chief Tigran Khudaverdyan. The body will coordinate federal and regional efforts on creating and deploying AI technologies and “analyze major risks and threats” from AI use, including measures to “neutralize” them. (Meduza, 02.26.26)
• A prominent pro-war blogger and a Russian soldier told iStories and Mediazona that army units have been ordered to stop using the state-backed Max messenger on frontline devices with “advanced multimedia capabilities,” citing security concerns. Commanders reportedly promise a new “military messenger,” while Kremlin propagandists showcase anonymous troops claiming they never used Telegram and rely on a secure MoD app—claims widely mocked by Z‑bloggers who say real units still depend on Telegram. (iStories, 02.23.26)
• A Russian delegation led by Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadayev joined India’s AI Summit in New Delhi on Feb. 18–20, with Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Alimov stressing AI “safety,” “trustworthiness,” non‑discriminatory access to data, compute and infrastructure, and a central coordinating role for the U.N. in global AI governance. Moscow welcomed the summit’s final declaration for reflecting Russian proposals and discussed multilateral ICT and AI cooperation in a sideline meeting with U.N. tech chief Amandeep Gill. (Russian Foreign Ministry, 02.20.26)
• Russia’s FSB claimed it has “reliable data” that Ukraine’s armed forces and intelligence can “in the shortest possible time receive information posted in the Telegram messenger and use it for military purposes,” warning that Russian troops’ use of Telegram at the front in the past three months has “repeatedly led to a threat to the lives of servicemen.” The agency offered no evidence. The Defense Ministry said troops use a “normal, domestic messenger” instead. (Meduza, 02.21.26)
• Putin signed a law giving the FSB new power to order Internet providers “to turn off or restrict access” nationwide or in specific regions under rules set by presidential acts, effectively allowing him to shut down online communications “without having to give a reason” and shielding providers from liability. The move follows throttling of WhatsApp and Telegram as authorities push users to the state-backed Max app. (RFE/RL, 02.21.26)
  • Russian authorities plan to “fully block” Telegram in early April, with the app to remain available only at the front, despite its widespread use by Russian units for battlefield coordination. Officials blame recruitment of minors for “illegal activities,” while pro‑war channels and some Duma deputies protest that Telegram is “the only normal communication” for troops; the move comes amid an FSB‑driven terrorism case against founder Pavel Durov. (Meduza, 02.26.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026

• India’s new trade deal with Washington dropped a threatened 50% U.S. tariff “in recognition of India’s commitment to stop purchasing Russian Federation oil,” a quid pro quo the Trump administration trumpeted even as the Supreme Court has now struck down his emergency-tariff move. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, long under pressure over Russian crude, faces accusations of bending policy to “appease the United States,” while insisting decisions are guided by “national interests.” (New York Times, 02.21.26)
• Greece is positioning itself as “Europe’s southern gateway” for LNG as the EU prepares a full ban on Russian gas by 2027. Before the invasion, Russia supplied “roughly 40 per cent” of EU gas; by 2024 that fell to “about 11 per cent,” with U.S. LNG now “nearly 60 per cent of the EU’s LNG imports.” Energy minister Stavros Papastavrou said, “We are no longer going to fund the attacker… This decoupling will not happen by itself.” (Financial Times, 02.22.26) 

Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026

• Western sanctions and seizures have made operating the “shadow fleet” of tankers hauling Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan crude far riskier and costlier, but not eliminated it. In 2025, these mostly old, falsely flagged ships accounted for 6–7% of global crude flows, with Russia relying on them for about 80% of its oil exports. Some 300 million barrels of Russian and Iranian oil now sit at sea as traders struggle to find buyers wary of tightening sanctions. (Wall Street Journal, 02.21.26) 
• Hungary will block the EU’s 20th Russia sanctions package unless Ukraine resumes oil transit via the Druzhba (“Friendship”) pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said, threatening to hold up decisions “important to Kyiv.” The package would tighten oil-shipping and crypto restrictions and curb sanctions evasion. Budapest, which is also blocking a €90bn EU loan for Ukraine, has hinted at “countermeasures” such as cutting diesel exports to Ukraine ahead of Hungary’s April 12 elections. (Financial Times, 02.22.26)

Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

• On the eve of the invasion’s fourth anniversary, EU support for Ukraine stumbled as Hungary vowed to block both the bloc’s 20th Russia sanctions package and a €90bn aid loan to Kyiv. Viktor Orbán tied his veto to disruptions on the Druzhba pipeline, while Ukraine called Budapest’s and Bratislava’s threats to cut diesel and emergency electricity “ultimatums and blackmail” that are “provocative, irresponsible, and threaten the energy security of the entire region.” (New York Times, 02.23.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026

• To move growing volumes of Urals crude to China as India cuts back, Russia is increasingly using ship‑to‑ship transfers from smaller tankers onto very large crude carriers (VLCCs) at a new at‑sea site in the Red Sea, Bloomberg says. Since December, about 6.3–6.9 million barrels have been shifted this way, helping push Russian deliveries to Chinese ports up to 2.09 million barrels a day in the first 18 days of February, from 1.72 million in January and 1.39 million in December. (Bloomberg, 02.24.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026

• Russian and Iranian oil producers are offering deepening discounts as they compete for the same limited group of Chinese buyers after India retreated from purchases. India’s imports from Russia could drop by 40% from January levels to around 600,000 barrels a day, according to a scenario from Rystad Energy. (Bloomberg, 02.25.26)

Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

• Indian refiners are keeping Russian oil purchases to a minimum after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling at the end of last week threw into question a long-awaited trade deal that would cut tariffs in exchange for halting those imports.. (Bloomberg, 02.26.26)

Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

• Zelenskyy’s office said he held a call with Slovak PM Robert Fico on Feb. 27, inviting him to Ukraine to discuss the Druzhba oil pipeline dispute, after Fico and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán announced plans for a “investigative commission” to inspect the damaged section and challenged Kyiv’s claim that transit cannot yet be safely restored. Russian forces struck Druzhba pumping stations in Ukraine on Feb. 12, halting flows to Hungary and Slovakia. (RBC.ua, 02.27.26)
• The Wall Street Journal says OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is expected to resume output hikes at its Sunday meeting with a modest 137,000 barrels/day increase, starting to unwind 1.65 million b/d of voluntary cuts scheduled to last through 2026. Brent is trading around $71/bbl and WTI above $65, with banks forecasting Q2 Brent at $61 on average—still below 2025 levels. (WSJ, 02.27.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Friday, Feb. 20, 2026

• Rights group OVD-Info reports a sharp rise in politically driven prosecutions in Russia, including treason, espionage and “secret collaboration” cases that lawyer Yevgeny Smirnov says can “in [his] view” all be considered political. Treason convictions in the first half of 2025 “almost doubled” versus 2024 (115 vs. 55), and may be understated threefold. Courts now issue “an average of five verdicts” daily in terrorism/sabotage cases, while “LGBT,” Navalny’s FBK donors, Jehovah’s Witnesses and decolonial activists face expanding “extremism” designations. (Russia.Post, 02.20.26)
• The Kremlin is tightening control over pro-Russian separatist figures, with former “People’s Governor of Donetsk Oblast” Pavel Gubarev facing an administrative case for “discrediting the Russian Armed Forces,” punishable by a 30,000–50,000 ruble fine. Gubarev, who has about 35,000 Telegram followers, recently mocked Chechen commander Apti Alaudinov as a “TikTok general” over failures in Kursk Oblast and accused Kremlin-backed Donetsk leader Denis Pushilin of profiteering from a water crisis. (ISW, 02.20.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026

• A New York Times analysis says Russia has devoted “nearly 40 percent” of its federal budget to the military and security and another 9 percent to war‑related debt service—about half of all spending—while as many as 1.2 million Russians have been killed or wounded, including up to 325,000 battlefield deaths, according to CSIS. The National Wealth Fund’s liquid reserves have fallen from $113 billion pre‑war to about $55 billion, oil‑and‑gas revenues dropped “almost a quarter” last year, and at least 4,029 people have been prosecuted in politically motivated cases. A fall 2025 poll cited found 59% of Russians aged 18–29 would support withdrawing from Ukraine without achieving Putin’s goals, versus 42% of the overall population. (New York Times, 02.24.26) 
• Russia’s FSB has opened a criminal investigation into Telegram founder Pavel Durov for “assistance to terrorist activity” (Article 205.1‑1 of the Criminal Code), alleging Telegram’s refusal to hand over encryption keys enabled assassinations and attacks including the March 2024 Crocus City Hall mass shooting. As Roskomnadzor throttles the app and blocks video/voice calls, the Kremlin is pushing users to the state-backed Max messenger; Telegram, which has about 90 million users in Russia, denies facilitating terrorism. (The Moscow Times, 02.24.26)
  • The Financial Times reports that Russia has opened a criminal investigation into Telegram founder Pavel Durov for allegedly “abetting terrorist activities,” with state media citing FSB “materials” that accuse the app of serving Western and Ukrainian intelligence and enabling attacks in Russia. Moscow has begun throttling Telegram’s functions and pushing users toward state‑run rival Max, escalating a long‑running clash with Durov, who left Russia in 2014 and has styled Telegram as a privacy‑focused alternative to Kremlin control. (Financial Times, 02.24.26)
• A Russian investigative outlet found that FSB director Alexander Bortnikov has quietly earned payments from entities linked to government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta since 2015, receiving about 3 million rubles from it in 2024 and 615,000 rubles in the first half of 2025, according to his pension-insurance account data. These are the first known income figures for Bortnikov since his public declarations stopped after 2019. (Meduza, 02.24.26)
• A Jan. 15–23, 2026 national poll by Russia’s independent Levada Center (N=1,611) found 37% of respondents expect their personal and family situation to be “about the same” in a year, 30% think they will live “better,” and 13% expect life to worsen (up 5 points since March 2025). For Russia as a whole, 33% foresee no change, 33% expect improvement, and 17% expect deterioration (up 6 points), indicating that since early 2022 positive expectations have fallen back to parity with neutral views. (Levada Center, 02.24.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026

• A Meduza investigation finds roughly 100 people who are already dead still listed on Rosfinmonitoring’s national “terrorists and extremists” registry, including Alexei Navalny—two years after his death in prison—despite the law stating that documented death is grounds for removal. Some names were even added posthumously, such as a Chechen man officially recorded as having died in 2000 but listed as a “terrorist” in 2023. For those eventually removed, the average time spent on the list after death is about 1 year and 10 months, with some cases lasting up to nine years. (Meduza, 02.25.26)

Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

• Russia’s combined regional budget deficit jumped to a record 1.478 trillion rubles in 2025—3.6 times the 2024 gap—as spending rose 9% to 24.1 trillion rubles while revenues grew only 4% to 22.6 trillion, ACRA data show. Seventy‑four regions ran deficits; Moscow’s shortfall was 229 billion rubles, while profit‑tax receipts fell 9% nationwide, hitting resource‑dependent regions such as Komi (−50%) and Orenburg (−40%) especially hard. (iStories, 02.26.26)
• Sberbank posted a record net profit of 1.7 trillion rubles ($22 billion) in 2025, its third consecutive year of growth despite sweeping Western sanctions imposed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The result was 7.9% higher than the bank’s 1.58 trillion rubles in profit in 2024. (MT/AFP, 02.26.26)
• An FBK investigation summarized by Meduza says the company behind “Putin’s palace” ended construction in 2023 with a 6.5bn ruble ($84m) surplus. About 3bn rubles went to the Alina Kabaeva Charitable Foundation and 3.5bn to her gymnastics nonprofit “Heavenly Grace,” with most funds parked in interest bearing accounts; Heavenly Grace alone reportedly earned 435m rubles ($5.6m) in interest in 2024. Investigators say only “tens of millions” were spent on nominal charitable projects. (Meduza, 02.26.26)
• A January Levada Center poll found 47% of Russians expect the economic situation to improve in the coming months—down 15 points since March 2025—while about one‑third now foresee deterioration, up 13 points. Political expectations are slightly more upbeat but also worsening: the share expecting political improvement fell 18 points, and those predicting worsening or unsure about the future each rose to 24%, both up 9 points since March 2025. (Levada Center, 02.26.26) 

Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

• A New York Times report says that since December there have been about a dozen major blackouts and central-heating cutoffs across Russia, from Murmansk to the Pacific, leaving hundreds of thousands without electricity or heat “for days” during an unusually brutal winter. In Murmansk and Severomorsk at least 73,000 people were without power for five days after 60‑year‑old pylons collapsed. In the Siberian town of Bodaybo, over 1,300 residents lost heat and running water as temperatures hovered near –30°C (–22°F), with a state of emergency lasting about three weeks. Construction Minister Irek Faizullin has admitted that 40% of utilities are in serious disrepair, while Putin has pledged 4.5 trillion rubles (~$59bn) for upgrades by 2030—less than half of what a 2022 strategy recommended. The 2025 federal budget allocated just 150bn rubles (<$2bn), of which only one‑third was actually disbursed. (New York Times, 02.27.26)
• In Nizhny Novgorod region, an important industrial center since Soviet times with major defense factories and an automotive plant, the economic situation is causing “serious concern,” according to documents seen by Bloomberg News. The local industrialists’ association set out a litany of troubles facing companies in a letter to a top regional official this month. It highlighted sharp falls in investment, profits, orders and production over the past year in the region of some 3 million people that’s about 500 kilometers (310 miles) east of Moscow. (Bloomberg, 02.27.26)
• A new Levada Center poll conducted Feb. 18–25, 2026 finds that Russians’ mood and views of the country’s direction are softening but still largely positive. Roughly “six in ten” respondents (61%) say they feel in a “normal, even state,” down 5 points since November 2025, while 21% report negative emotions (tension, irritation, fear, melancholy) and 17% describe themselves as in a “wonderful mood.” About 64% think “things in the country are going in the right direction,” but that share has fallen 10 points since March 2025; 23% now say Russia is on the “wrong path,” up 7 points. Putin’s job approval remains high at 82% (down 5 points in six months), but trust in him as a political figure has slipped to 42%, a 6‑point drop since November 2025. (Levada Center, 02.27.26) 
• Yandex founder Arkady Volozh has renounced his Russian citizenship nearly two years after he sold his interest in the country’s leading search engine. The billionaire got confirmation that he is no longer a Russian citizen this week, a person familiar with the situation said, declining to be identified because the matter is private. (Bloomberg, 02.27.26)

Defense and aerospace:

Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

• Investigative outlet iStories reports Russian recruiters have been given a 36‑country “stop list” of largely “friendly” states whose citizens are now banned from signing contracts with the Russian Armed Forces, including China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Kenya and others. By autumn 2025 Russia had recruited over 10,000 foreign fighters; 37% came from countries now on the list, led by Cuba (1,000+), Nepal (~800) and Sri Lanka (700+), while EAEU states like Tajikistan, Belarus and Kazakhstan supplied the largest numbers overall. (iStories, 02.23.26)

Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Putin on Feb. 20 signed a law allowing the FSB to order mobile operators to cut communications “in all of Russia or specific federal subjects” under presidential acts, after legislators removed language limiting this to “emerging security threats.” ISW notes the Kremlin is using claims that Ukraine can harvest Telegram data and that the app “threatened the lives” of troops to set conditions for blocking Telegram and forcing users onto the state‑controlled Max messenger. (ISW, 02.21.26)
• Following the Savyolovsky railway station bombing that killed a police officer, Vladimir Putin told an FSB board meeting that the service must “increase the level of protection” for Defense Ministry officials, the defense-industrial complex, regional authorities, educators, social workers, journalists, and volunteers, and “strengthen anti‑terrorist protection” of energy, transport, and other critical infrastructure. (iStories, 02.24.26)
• Four years into the conflict, the majority of the professional Russian Ground Forces (RGF) that started the war has been attritted. This has forced Russia to rely on a large mass of low-quality personnel to continue to prosecute the war against Ukraine. As part of this transition to mass, Russia is restructuring its forces back to a division force concept. However, due to the need to apply constant pressure on the frontline casualty rates remain high limiting Russia's ability to fully form or reconstitute new and existing units. Russia's personnel casualties of over 1,250,000 killed and wounded have undermined Russia's force quality… Despite the costs imposed on its ground forces, Russia has been able to impose constant pressure on Ukrainian defenses. (U.K. MOD X Account, 02.24.26)
• Russian investigators accuse Alexey Kostylev, founder and ex–editor in chief of pro‑war outlet Readovka (2m+ Telegram subscribers), of embezzling 1 billion rubles (~$11m) from Russian Defense Ministry contracts; prosecutors are seeking his pre‑trial detention on large‑scale fraud charges. (Meduza, 02.27.26)
• St. Petersburg police said Feb. 27 that they arrested a senior manager at Gazprom Neft, one of Russia’s biggest oil producers, on suspicion of accepting bribes in his previous role at the company’s investment division. Russia’s Interior Ministry said the senior manager received a motorboat and an apartment in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi valued at 30 million rubles ($387,800) in exchange for ensuring contract bids with Gazprom Invest and “general patronage” between 2021 and 2022. (MT/AFP, 02.27.26)

• Law enforcement authorities in Siberia’s Irkutsk region arrested Alexei Botvin, the mayor of a small town where residents have gone weeks without heating and water. More than 1,000 people living in the town of Bodaybo have not had access to water since early January, when a major pipeline froze over, forcing central heating facilities to shut down. On Feb. 27, Botvin was charged with “abuse of power resulting in grave consequences,” the Investigative Committee, Russia’s top investigative body, said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 02.27.26)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• South African President Cyril Ramaphosa publicly thanked Vladimir Putin for helping repatriate 17 South African men “lured” into fighting for Russia in Ukraine. Four have already returned and 11 more are expected soon, with two still in Russia. Pretoria says the men were tricked into mercenary service; South African law bans fighting in foreign armies without authorization, and an investigation into the recruitment network is ongoing. (The Moscow Times, 02.24.26)
• Washington Post reports detail how Russia’s manpower shortfalls are being filled with foreign recruits: Kenyan police arrested a suspected trafficker accused of sending at least 25 Kenyans to fight for Russia in Ukraine, while 11 South Africans duped into service have now been repatriated and questioned under laws banning unauthorized participation in foreign conflicts. (Washington Post, 02.25.26, Washington Post, 02.26.26)
• Ghana’s foreign minister says at least 55 Ghanaians have been killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine, one of the highest confirmed death tolls among African countries whose citizens have joined the war. Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa told reporters in Kyiv that 272 Ghanaians have been recruited since 2022, with two currently held as prisoners of war, citing Ukrainian intelligence. Overall, Ukrainian authorities have documented 1,780 Africans from 36 countries “lured by criminal trafficking networks to join the war against Ukraine,” he said. Recent reports have highlighted similar cases in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, where recruits were promised lucrative jobs or training but ended up on the front lines. “This is not our war and we cannot allow our youth to become human shields for others,” Ablakwa said, pledging to intensify public education and “track and dismantle all dark web illegal recruitment schemes” operating in Ghana. (Washington Post, 02.27.26)
• Russia’s recruitment of Africans to fight in its war on Ukraine is increasingly drawing the ire of governments on the continent. South Africa said Feb. 26 that two of its citizens were killed in the conflict, while Botswana said it is seeking to establish what happened to three of its nationals who were drafted. Kenya has charged a man with trafficking men to Russia to fight, and Ghana and Nigeria have raised concerns about the fate of conscripts. In many cases, the governments say, their citizens have been duped into joining Moscow’s military, traveling to Russia for what they believed were civilian jobs. (Bloomberg, 02.27.26)
• The State Duma has passed a bill, in second and third readings, that would bar Russia from extraditing foreign nationals who are serving or have served under contract in the Russian Armed Forces by adding them to the grounds for refusing extradition in Article 464 of the Criminal Procedure Code. The measure, which now goes to the Federation Council and Putin, is aimed at boosting the number of foreigners willing to fight for Russia in Ukraine, according to independent project Faridaily. (Meduza, 02.26.26) 
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told Berlin’s “Café Kyiv” conference that under its current leadership Russia is “at the very bottom of deepest barbarism,” quoting Astolphe de Custine’s line about “deepest barbarism coexisting with highest civilization” and arguing that today only the former remains. He said there should be “no doubt” in Europe about “what regime, what barbarism coming from Russia, we are dealing with in these years” as the full‑scale war’s fourth anniversary approaches. (Meduza, 02.23.26)
•  Russia sent two plane-loads of food aid to cyclone‑hit Madagascar days after the country’s new president, Michael Randrianirina, made his first official trip abroad to Moscow. The aircraft delivered 30 tons of rice, 16 tons of beans and 13 tons of sunflower oil to Antananarivo, Russia’s embassy said, underscoring the Kremlin’s efforts to deepen ties with the coup‑installed leader over Madagascar’s former colonial power, France. (Bloomberg, 02.23.26)

Ukraine:

• The Trump administration has formally warned Ukraine not to hit Russian targets that could damage U.S. economic interests, Kyiv’s ambassador to Washington said. Olha Stefanishyna told reporters she received a State Department démarche after a November Ukrainian drone strike on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which damaged two tankers from Moscow’s “shadow fleet” and a terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, partly owned by Chevron and Exxon. “We have heard from the Department of State that we should refrain from attacking American interests,” she said, adding the warning did not apply to strikes on Russian military or energy infrastructure more broadly. The episode comes as Washington abstained on a Ukraine‑backed U.N. peace resolution and sent no senior delegation to Kyiv for the invasion’s fourth anniversary, a shift toward a more “neutral” stance that has frustrated Ukrainian officials, who note Russian attacks have damaged 47% of U.S. companies in Ukraine. (Financial Times, 02.24.26) 
• Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K. and former armed forces chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi refused to confirm or deny plans to run for president, calling it “taboo” when “issues of Ukraine’s internal politics go to the international level.” He said one must first “understand how the current situation will be resolved” and that he sees “no possibility of thinking about what will happen after the end of the war.” Polls show him roughly level with Zelenskyy. (Meduza, 02.23.26)
• A NYT analysis notes EU accession takes nine years on average, making Zelenskyy’s oft‑cited 2027 target “all but impossible” under current rules. Ukraine is one of nine candidates; fast‑track ideas include phased access to the single market and subsidies and possibly limited voting rights, but unanimity is required and Hungary has already blocked opening talks, raising the prospect of “light” membership and a two‑tier EU. (NYT, 02.26.26)
  • While Ukraine has made EU accession a core peace demand and Zelenskyy still touts 2027, the normal nine‑year accession process, corruption concerns, and unanimity rules make that timeline “all but impossible.” Brussels is debating phased “light” membership—gradual market access and subsidies, possibly without full voting rights—which could change what EU membership means and risk creating a two‑tier union. (NYT, “02.26.26)
• Kyiv prosecutors say a Kyiv resident was arrested after allegedly offering, for $18,000, to arrange the mobilization of a woman convicted in a serious traffic‑accident case into a combat medic slot in a military unit, in order to help her avoid serving a five‑year prison sentence; he was detained as he received the money. (Korrespondent.net, 02.26.26)
• Ukraine’s SBU and National Police say they dismantled another network selling “trophy” weapons smuggled from the front: four suspects were detained in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and police seized 56 firearms (including Russian AK‑12s with suppressors, sniper rifles, and a 30‑mm automatic grenade launcher), 5,500 rounds, and nearly 2 kg of explosives. All seized arms will be transferred to Ukraine’s defense forces. (Korrespondent.net, 02.26.26)
• The Ukrainian Air Force's Logistics Commander and the head of a regional Directorate of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) were detained for embezzling from the budget allocated to the construction of aircraft shelters, Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko said on Feb. 25. The suspects in the embezzlement scheme were caught "red-handed" while trying to illegally transfer the money, and $320,000 was seized from them, according to Kravchenko… Kravchenko said the state allocated over $32 million for the construction of prefabricated arch structures in a May 2025 decision to protect aviation, but the SBU's Military Counterintelligence Department found "significant violations" during inspections. (Kyiv Post, 02.27.26)
• Ukraine’s High Anti-Corruption Court ordered the pretrial detention of SBU Zhytomyr regional chief Col. Volodymyr Kompanichenko for 60 days, with an alternative bail set at over 6.9 million hryvnias (about $175,000). He is suspected of corruption tied to the construction of aircraft shelters; Kompanichenko and his lawyers declined to comment on the charges. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.27.26)
• Ukraine faces intensified anti-corruption scrutiny as the EU outlines accession criteria emphasizing rule of law reforms, while a former energy minister was detained on 16 February 2026 in a high-profile kickback case involving over $112 million in illicit gains from the energy sector. This scandal, linked to the “Midas” scheme implicating President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s associates, underscores persistent challenges despite civil society mobilizations and institutional progress recognized in global indices. (Brussels Watch, 02.25.26)
• The brother of the head of Mykolaiv Regional State Administration, Vitaliy Kim— Vyacheslav Kim—acquired three real estate properties during the full-scale war. Vyacheslav Kim did not stop there. During the full-scale war, he also purchased two cars and a motorcycle. (Antikor, 02.25.26)
• In January 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine for the first time published a list of significant financial institutions. It included 53 companies, among them LLC “Premium Finance.” The company is among the top 10 leaders in the currency exchange market. At the same time, it is involved in several criminal cases, including suspected large-scale tax evasion, legalization of virtual assets without permits, and shadow currency exchange. (Antikor, 02.27.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026

• As Russia’s invasion enters its fifth year, Ukraine’s economy shows “solid” but fragile growth: GDP has risen each year since the 2022 crash, yet remains 21% below 2021 and over 40% below early‑1990s levels. A booming defense-tech sector now produces more than the state budget can buy, but the country runs a current-account deficit near 15% of GDP, faces severe labor shortages, and depends on delayed EU/IMF support to avoid collapse. (Financial Times, 02.22.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026

• In his first wartime interview to Belarusian media, Zelenskyy told exiled outlet Zerkalo that Alexander Lukashenko is “an accomplice” in Russia’s war but “the Belarusian people are not,” warning that Belarus now hosts drone signal relays helping Shahed strikes and is preparing to station Oreshnik ballistic missiles. He said Kyiv is tightening sanctions targeting Lukashenko and his inner circle and wants closer ties with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, including appointing a Ukrainian special representative for Belarus. (Meduza, 02.24.26)
• RFE/RL reports that about 700 Kyrgyz citizens are missing in Russia’s war on Ukraine, with “fewer than 3 percent” of the missing found alive and “95–97 percent” believed killed with unrecovered bodies, according to Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” project. Many Kyrgyz men holding Russian passports were recruited or coerced into service, their families now afraid to seek help for fear of prosecution at home and often cut off from pay or death benefits by Russian commanders declaring soldiers “missing” to avoid compensation. (RFE/RL, 02.24.26)
• The Washington Post reports that Andrei Lankov, a prominent Russian North Korea scholar and dual Russian‑Australian citizen who teaches at Kookmin University in Seoul, was detained by Latvian police during a lecture in Riga and then expelled to Estonia without explanation. Russian outlet RBK says he has been placed on a Latvian blacklist; Lankov is known for his realist view of Pyongyang and for criticizing Russia’s war in Ukraine and its use of North Korean troops. (Washington Post, 02.24.26)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University, said: “If the current push by the Trump Administration succeeds in bringing an end to the killing and destruction, it will not be the “just peace” that U.N. Secretary General Guterres and most Western commentators are calling for. It will not restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity by returning the 20% of Ukraine that Russian troops now control. It will not force Putin to pay reparations for the damage he has done.” (RM, 02.24.26)
• Fiona Hill, a member of Harvard’s Board of Overseers, said: “You have to be prepared for a very forceful reaction from him [Putin]… we have to be firm and we have to be very clear and we have to be consistent. And we have to be able to defend ourselves in whatever fashion that merits. Pandering to Putin, trying to bribe Putin, trying to flatter Putin, trying to incentivize Putin, that is just not going to work. That’s not who Putin is.” (The Global Story podcast, BBC, 02.26.26)
• Fiona Hill, a member of Harvard’s Board of Overseers, said: “From the point of view of anybody who’s hoping for peace, the prospects are not really great at the moment… We did hit a rather grim milestone… in the last month, where Russia actually lost more people in terms of those killed in action and been grievously wounded than it’s been able to recruit… people have always looked at that as a kind of tipping point. I wouldn’t say that it actually is at the moment. And one thing for people to bear in mind is this is extraordinarily unusual in Russian history… is that Russia is essentially fighting this war essentially on the back of a mercenary war or of contract soldiers, not conscripts.” (ABC news.au, 02.24.26)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI was used in production of this digest.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo from Kremlin.ru.