Russia in Review, Feb. 16-23, 2018

This week’s highlights:

  • Prior to a Feb.7 offensive by suspected members of Russia’s private military company, known as Wagner Group, on positions of U.S. allies in Syria, Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin—who reportedly controls this group, told a senior Syrian official that he had “secured permission” from an unspecified Russian minister to move forward with a “fast and strong” initiative that would take place in early February. In the meantime, Russia has deployed its new advanced stealth fighter—the Su-57—to its Hmeimim airbase in Syria.
  • CIA Director Mike Pompeo has reportedly hinted that the United States has already retaliated against Russia for alleged meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections.
  • Oleg Deripaska’s resignation as president of Rusal may have something to do with his appearance on the U.S. Treasury's "Kremlin list."
  • “Yes, Javelins will be part of this help, but there is much more,” U.S. special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker said of an expected U.S. military aid package to Ukraine.
  • The percentage of Russians who associate Soviet-era secret police with political terror has nearly halved from 23 percent in 1997 to just 12 percent today, according to a new Levada poll.
  • During a visit to Belgrade, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov welcomed Serbia's drive to join the European Union.
  • Having described employees of his country’s finance ministry as "incompetent rats," Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev is now referring to officers of the country’s National Security Service as “mad dogs” as he pushes for changes.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration has called for a tenfold increase in the levels of "plutonium equivalent" material stored at a New Mexico nuclear facility to allow for the resumption of plutonium pit production. (Al Jazeera, 02.23.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • The Trump administration on Feb. 23 levied what it called its largest ever North Korea sanctions package, hitting dozens of shipping and trading companies. (Wall Street Journal, 02.23.18)
  • The powerful Hwasong-15 intercontinental missile tested by North Korea late last year is "highly likely" to have been built with foreign blueprints or parts, according to a new technical analysis that describes multiple similarities between Pyongyang's new missile and Soviet missiles built decades ago. (The Washington Post, 02.16.18)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Russia is opposing a bid by the U.S. and its allies to include language condemning Iran for allegedly violating an arms embargo imposed on Yemeni rebels in a U.N. resolution renewing that embargo. (RFE/RL, 02.22.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis has asserted that the Pentagon needs to invest in low-yield nuclear weapons to counter a Russian strategy of "escalate to de-escalate"—firing low-yield nuclear weapons with the belief that the U.S. would not retaliate because it would have to use full-scale nuclear weapons. (UPI, 02.22.18)
  • The U.S. Navy has sent a missile destroyer to the Black Sea to join the USS Ross. Moscow has persistently objected to Western military activities in the waters, on whose shore sits Crimea. (Newsweek, 02.21.18)
  • From submarines to bulletproof vests, the state of Germany’s military equipment is “dramatically bad.” In his annual report, the armed forces commissioner of Germany’s parliament hits out at decades of underfunding of the Bundeswehr and notes that only a fraction of crucial weapons systems was operational. (Financial Times, 02.20.18)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • The State Department published on Feb. 22 the aggregate number of nuclear arms and delivery systems believed to be in the hands of both the U.S. and Russia. Both said earlier this month that the other was in compliance with the New START treaty, which mandated they reduce their deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 each, their deployed nuclear missile and bomber force to 700 each and their combined deployed and non-deployed nuclear launchers to 800 by Feb. 5 of this year. The newly available figures confirmed this and showed Russia maintained a slight lead on its deployed nuclear might. (Newsweek, 02.22.18)

Counter-terrorism:

  • No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

  • Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian oligarch believed to control the Russian mercenaries who attacked U.S. troops and their allies in Syria this month, was in close touch with Kremlin and ­Syrian officials in the days and weeks before and after the Feb. 7 and 8 attack, according to U.S. intelligence reports. In intercepted communications in late January, Prigozhin told a senior Syrian official that he had “secured permission” from an unspecified Russian minister to move forward with a “fast and strong” initiative that would take place in early February. The communications show not only that Prigozhin was personally involved in planning the attack, but that he had also discussed it with senior Syrian officials, including Minister of Presidential Affairs Mansour Fadlallah Azzam. The reports indicated an increased tempo of communications between Prigozhin and Kremlin officials during the same period, including Putin chief of staff Anton Vayno and deputy chief of staff Vladi­mir Ostrovenko, but the content of those talks is not known. (The Washington Post, 02.22.18)
    • According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Yevgeny Prigozhin owns a Russian company called Evro Polis, which, according to Russian news site Fontanka, struck a deal in 2016 with the Syrian government to receive a 25 percent share of oil and natural gas produced on territory recaptured from the Islamic State. (The Washington Post, 02.22.18)
    • U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said that the United States is still investigating who directed an attack on a base housing U.S.-backed opposition forces and U.S. military advisers in Syria earlier this month. He said that Russian officers whom the U.S. coordinated with were apparently unaware of the Feb. 7 attack in the Deir el-Zour province. "I understand that the Russian government now is saying some of their not military forces, but contractors, were involved in that still unexplained attack," Mattis said. The attackers "took direction from someone. Was it local direction? Was it from external sources? Don't ask me. I don't know," the U.S. defense secretary said. (RFE/RL, 02.18.18)
    • The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Feb. 20 that "several dozen" citizens of Russia and other former Soviet republics who are not members of the military were wounded in a recent battle with U.S.-led forces in Syria. The statement was Moscow's first formal acknowledgement that Russian mercenaries suffered heavy casualties in the lopsided clash in Syria's Deir el-Zour. The statement gave no new figure for the number of Russians killed in the incident. (RFE/RL, 02.20.18)
    • A report in the Russian Kommersant newspaper quoted a military official as saying that the Russian military command in Syria viewed the Feb.7 incident as “dangerous amateurism.” (The Washington Post, 02.22.18)
  • A fierce government assault on a besieged rebel-held suburb of eastern Ghouta outside Damascus has become one of the deadliest attacks of the country’s seven-year war, opposition activists say, with 194 people killed on Feb. 18 and 19, including 52 children. Warplanes and artillery bombarded eastern Ghouta for a fifth straight day on Feb. 22. German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Feb. 22 urged Russia and Iran to rein in Syrian forces' offensive against eastern Ghouta, calling the attacks a massacre. (Financial Times, 02.20.18, Wall Street Journal, 02.22.18, RFE/RL, 02.22.18)
    • Russia is ready to vote for a U.N. Security Council draft resolution on a ceasefire in Syria, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who also said that the United States and its allies had refused to amend the resolution to include guarantees that the militants would honor the ceasefire. (Reuters, 02.23.18)
  • The Syrian Kurdish YPG militia said on Feb. 22 that fighters backing the Syrian government were deploying on the frontlines to help repel a Turkish assault, but that assistance would be needed from the Syrian army itself. (Reuters, 02.22.18)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the Trump administration not to “play with fire” as he lashed out at the U.S. over what he described as its “provocative” support for autonomy-seeking Kurds in Syria. (Bloomberg, 02.19.18)
  • Russia has deployed its new advanced stealth fighter—the Su-57—to its Hmeimim airbase in Syria. (Newsweek, 02.23.18)
  • The Russian military has ordered personnel stationed in Syria to jam cell phone signals to prevent drone attacks. (The Moscow Times, 02.20.18)
  • A court in Moscow has handed lengthy prison terms to six Tajik nationals charged with an attempt to bomb a minibus in the Moscow suburb of Lyubertsy in 2016. Investigators claimed the defendants were loyal to Islamic State and planned to join IS militants in Syria after the attack. (RFE/RL, 02.22.18)

Cyber security:

  • U.S. Sen. Angus King told CIA Director Mike Pompeo on Feb. 17 that deterrence doesn't work unless the other side knows it, lamenting the lack of a coherent strategy for deterring cyberattacks, especially from Russia. Pompeo responded: “It's true that it's important that the adversary know it, but it is not a requirement that the whole world know it.” Pompeo's remarks suggest that the United States has already retaliated against Russia for meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections. (The Washington Post, 02.21.18)
  • When senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachyov asked U.S. National Secrutiy Adviser H.R. McMaster about possible U.S. cooperation with Russian cybersecurity experts, McMaster joked: "I am surprised there are any Russian cyberexperts available based on how active most of them have been in undermining our democracies in the West." (RFE/RL, 02.19.18)
  • U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that "the next war will begin with a massive cyberattack to destroy military capacity … and paralyze basic infrastructure, such as the electric networks." (RFE/RL, 02.19.18)

Elections interference:

  • After the indictment of 13 Russian nationals on Feb. 16 U.S. President Donald Trump declared in a Twitter post that ''the results of the election were not impacted. The Trump campaign did nothing wrong—no collusion!'' He made no mention of Russia. On Feb. 19, Trump tweeted that former U.S. President Barack Obama “was President up to, and beyond, the 2016 Election. So why didn’t he do something about Russian meddling?” Trump targeted Obama again on Feb. 20, tweeting out an October 2016 quote in which Obama implored then-candidate Trump to campaign and "stop whining and make his case." Trump on Feb. 21 renewed his public pressure on U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, suggesting the Justice Department should be looking at the Obama administration as it probes possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russia. Trump has also argued he has been tougher on Russia than Obama was. (Bloomberg, 02.19.18, Wall Street Journal, 02.21.18, New York Times, 02.17.18, The Washington Post, 02.22.18)
    • U.S. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said the FBI indictments show Russian meddling in the U.S. election is beyond dispute. "We are becoming more and more adept at tracing the origins of this espionage and subversion. And as you can see with the FBI indictment the evidence is now really incontrovertible." (RFE/RL, 02.17.18)
    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says he has no reaction to U.S. indictments on alleged Russian meddling in U.S. elections, calling the accusations nothing but "claptrap" until Moscow sees the facts. (RFE/RL, 02.17.18)
    • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Feb. 19 that the U.S. indictment centered purely on individuals and presented no tangible proof that the Kremlin itself or Russian government agencies were involved. (Reuters, 02.19.18)
    • "Russia as a state is definitely not involved in any hacking attacks or cyberwars," senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachyov said. "This is not our policy. Definitely not." (RFE/RL, 02.19.18)
    • ''I have seen so many indictments and accusations against Russians,'' Russia’s former envoy to the U.S. Sergey Kislyak said on Feb. 17. ''I am not sure I can trust American law enforcement to be the most truthful source against Russians. … The allegations being mounted against us are simply fantasies.” (New York Times, 02.17.18)
    • Yevgeny Prigozhin, the alleged financier of the infamous St. Petersburg-based “troll farm” named in the indictment, said: “The Americans are really impressionable people, they see what they want to see. I greatly respect them. I am not at all disappointed to be on this list. If they want to see the devil—let them see one.” (The Moscow Times, 02.19.18)
    • Marat Mindiyarov, a former employee of St. Petersburg’s infamous “troll factory” was arrested in St. Petersburg Feb. 18, hours after speaking about his work as a pro-Kremlin commentator to foreign journalists. (The Moscow Times, 02.20.18)
  • Rick Gates, deputy of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, pled guilty Feb. 23 to conspiracy and lying about a 2013 Ukraine-related meeting between Manafort and Congressman Dana Rohrabacher in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Manafort and Gates were indicted on tax and bank fraud charges as Mueller mounted a fresh attack to strengthen his legal pressure against the men. Mueller used a new 32-count indictment in Alexandria, Virginia, to raise the legal stakes against the duo, who were initially indicted on Oct. 27 in Washington on charges of laundering millions of dollars and failing to register as foreign agents for their political consulting work over a decade in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 02.22.18, Wall Street Journal, 02.23.18, CNN, 02.23.18, L.A. Times, 02.23.18)
  • Alex Van Der Zwaan, son-in-law of Russian oligarch German Khan, has been charged with making false statements to the FBI as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe. Van Der Zwaan allegedly lied to investigators about his last communications with Richard Gates. (The Moscow Times, 02.20.18)
  • Over the weekend, election officials from all 50 states received classified briefings on risks to their electoral systems, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said. The Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation joined the sessions. (Bloomberg, 02.19.18)
  • Matthew Masterson, the head of a federal commission who has helped U.S. states protect election systems from possible cyberattacks by Russia or others, is being replaced at the behest of Republican House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan and the White House. (Reuters, 02.22.18)
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Feb. 21 accused Washington of trying to meddle in Russia's internal affairs ahead of its March presidential election after the United States indicted 13 Russians. Ryabkov did not provide evidence to support the claim. He also voiced "regret" that Washington is accusing Russia of meddling in the U.S. election "without any foundation or proof." (RFE/RL, 02.21.18)
  • Facebook's head of advertising, writing on Twitter, said there are "easy ways to fight" the Russian campaign, starting with having a "well educated citizenry." He also tweeted that the Russians' main goal wasn't to sway the 2016 election, but more broadly to sow division in the U.S. (Wall Street Journal, 02.19.18)

Energy exports:

  • Turkey has yet to issue a permit for Russia’s Gazprom to start building the land-based part of the TurkStream gas pipeline, stoking fears the strategically important project will be delayed. (Reuters, 02.20.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • Russia may challenge any move by the United States to impose stiff new tariffs on imports of Russian steel and aluminum in a complaint before the World Trade Organization. (RFE/RL, 02.20.18)

Other bilateral issues:

  • The U.S. will impose new sanctions on Russia within weeks, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Feb. 23. Mnuchin said that the Treasury Department may choose some sanctions targets based on information developed from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of Russian meddling in the last presidential election. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has earlier said the United States is considering additional sanctions against Russian individuals amid bipartisan criticism for the administration’s delay in enforcing a law strengthening restrictions imposed on Moscow. (RFE/RL, 02.19.18, Bloomberg, 02.23.18)
  • Russia will bar U.S. diplomats from monitoring the presidential elections in Russia because the U.S. barred Russian diplomats from doing so in 2016, according to Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov. (RBC/Russia Matters, 02.22.18)
  • The Russian Embassy in Washington has complained that working conditions for Russian journalists in the U.S. are worsening after the government-funded Sputnik news agency was forced to register as a foreign agent over the weekend. (The Moscow Times, 02.20.18)
  • Longstanding friction between U.S. President Donald Trump and two top aides, the national security adviser and the chief of staff, has grown to a point that either or both might quit soon. (Reuters, 02.23.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • On Feb. 23 both S&P Global ratings and Fitch Ratings are poised to announce the results their reviews of the country's debt rating. The hope is that S&P will make a one-step upgrade to the foreign-currency rating and put the sovereign back into investment grade territory. (Bloomberg, 02.23.18)
  • United Co. Rusal will name finance head Alexandra Bouriko as chief executive officer, making her the first woman to lead one of Russia’s largest commodity companies. Billionaire Oleg Deripaska is stepping down as president of Rusal and En+ Group Plc as part of a broader reshuffle. Before Deripaska's announced resignation, the Russian business daily Kommersant cited his appearance on the Treasury's "Kremlin list" as a reason for why he was planning to quit his post. (Bloomberg, 02.19.18, RFE/RL, 02.23.18)
  • United Co. Rusal is readying for a potential shoot out deal for MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC that could resolve a dispute between billionaire shareholders going back to the last decade. In a Feb. 23 statement, Rusal laid out steps it could take in the event of a shoot out, a type of forced auction in which the losing bidder must sell his stake to the winner. (Bloomberg, 02.22.18)
  • Unit one of the Leningrad Phase II nuclear power plant has entered the power start-up phase. (World Nuclear News, 02.23.18)
  • Russian regulator Rostechnadzor has issued a license for the final stage of the start-up procedure—pilot operation—at unit four of the Rostov nuclear power plant. (World Nuclear News, 02.20.18)
  • Russia has continued its slide in Transparency International’s index of corruption, ranking 135th out of 180 countries in the 25th annual Corruption Perceptions Index released Feb. 21, making it one of the bottom 50 countries. (The Moscow Times, 02.22.18)
  • Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said he may be jailed until the end of next month’s presidential election after he was briefly detained and his campaign manager was taken into custody. (Bloomberg, 02.22.18)
  • Opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s campaign manager Leonid Volkov has been sentenced to 30 days behind bars for tweeting a video. (The Moscow Times, 02.23.18)
  • Roman Rubanov, the director of Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, has been detained at Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport for organizing an anti-election rally in the run-up to Russia’s presidential vote. (The Moscow Times, 02.20.18)
  • Russia's media regulator has blocked a website backed by former oil tycoon and Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the latest media site to be blacklisted by the agency. (RFE/RL, 02.21.18)
  • With Russia's presidential election less than a month away, the chief of Russia’s Central Election Commission, Ella Pamfilova, has warned of attempts to influence the vote with “fake news.” (The Washington Post, 02.20.18)
  • Only 12 percent of Russians said they associated the Cheka Soviet-era secret police force with political terror and the persecution of dissidents, according to the new Levada poll published on Feb. 22. Levada said the number had been nearly halved since 1997, when 23 percent of Russians held the same views. (The Moscow Times, 02.22.18)
  • FIFA said on Feb. 23 it had every confidence in its security measures at the World Cup in Russia after hooliganism in the host nation came under fresh scrutiny following violent incidents involving Spartak Moscow supporters on Feb. 22 in which a policeman died of a heart attack. (Reuters, 02.23.18)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Political officers in the Russian military disappeared along with the Soviet Union. Now they are back again. The government’s aim is greater ideological control over the command structures of the nation’s armed forces, especially in light of any potential internal unrest. (Intersection, 02.20.18)
  • Russia has been marking its Day of the Fatherland's Defender, which also coincides with the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the Red Army. (RFE/RL, 02.23.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • A 34-year old man was found dead at a St. Petersburg police station on Feb. 21, just hours after posting a video on social media complaining of police abuse. (The Moscow Times, 02.23.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • EU ambassadors have prolonged asset freezes and visa bans on 150 Russian officials and Moscow-backed Ukrainian separatists for another six months. The measure was also rolled over for 38 entities on the sanctions list. (RFE/RL, 02.21.18)
  • Preparations are under way for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to meet in April in Turkey. (Reuters, 02.19.18)
  • During a visit to Belgrade, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov welcomed Serbia's drive to join the European Union, but also vowed that Moscow would remain engaged with the Balkan country no matter what happens. (RFE/RL, 02.21.18)
  • Serbia has arrested eight foreign citizens, including two Americans and two Ukrainians, on suspicion that they tried to photograph and enter military facilities without authorization. (RFE/RL, 02.20.18)
  • Spanish prosecutors have demanded prison terms for 18 Russian and Spanish nationals suspected of mafia ties after a decade-long criminal investigation. Russian State Duma deputy Vladislav Reznik, among a dozen Russians targeted in a 2016 arrest warrant in Spain, claimed innocence at a Feb. 19 court hearing. (The Moscow Times, 02.19.18)
  • Latvia’s central bank chief, freed this week on bail after being detained in a corruption case, said he regrets not reporting the “hint” of a bribe in the past, reiterating that he’s never accepted one or been offered one explicitly. Riga-based Norvik Banka JSC, controlled by Russian-born Grigory Guselnikov, has leveled separate bribery allegations against Ilmars Rimsevics. (Bloomberg, 02.22.18)
  • German police say a 70-year-old German-Russian dual national has been arrested and accused of "politically motivated" attempted murder after he attacked three asylum seekers with a knife. (RFE/RL, 02.22.18)
  • Police in Montenegro have confirmed that the man who threw a hand grenade into the compound of the U.S. Embassy in Podgorica Feb. 22 left behind a “suicide note.” Dalibor Jaukovic was a Serbian-born Kosovo war veteran and a member of a Serbian-language Facebook group called "Russophiles.” (RFE/RL, 02.23.18)
  • Six people, including a former Russian diplomat and an Argentinian police officer, have been arrested following an investigation into cocaine smuggling through the Russian Embassy in Buenos Aires. Russia’s ambassador to Argentina, Viktor Koronelli, in late 2016 alerted local authorities after finding 16 bags of drugs hidden in a school on the embassy's grounds. Argentinian police seized the 389 kilograms of cocaine worth over $60 million. (The Moscow Times, 02.23.18)
  • The Iraqi government has returned 27 Russian children and four women suspected of terrorist ties to their homeland. (The Moscow Times, 02.22.18)
  • Two Russian athletes competing in the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang have failed doping tests. Meanwhile, on Feb. 23 Russian figure skater Alina Zagitova won the first gold medal for the Olympic Athletes from Russia. (AP, 02.23.18, New York Times, 02.23.18)

China:

  • No significant developments.

Ukraine:

  • The Trump administration is reportedly expected to approve a $47 million military aid package to Ukraine, including 210 anti-tank missiles and 35 Javelin launchers. “Yes, Javelins will be part of this help, but there is much more,” U.S. special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker said. (The Moscow Times, 02.21.18)
  • Despite continued diplomatic tensions, Russian exports to Ukraine last year rose by 40 percent to $7.2 billion, according to official Ukrainian statistics published Feb. 19. Ukraine exported $3.9 billion worth of goods to Russia in 2017, up from $3.5 billion in the previous year, making Russia Ukraine’s biggest trading partner. (The Moscow Times, 02.20.18)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said their bilateral meeting at the Munich Security Conference failed to produce progress on the issue of peacekeepers. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters following his meeting with Lavrov that he also saw little progress and that "it remains to be seen if it's possible." Kurt Volker, the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, said that such a force "doesn't make any sense" if Russia does not "end the conflict and withdraw its forces" in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.19.18)
    • Planned talks at the Munich Security Conference in the so-called Normandy Format—Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia—aimed at bringing an end to the fighting in eastern Ukraine were dropped. According to a diplomatic source, the meeting was canceled because German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel had to fly back to Berlin after Turkey released a German-Turkish journalist from prison. (RFE/RL, 02.19.18)
    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in his speech at the Munich Security Conference that the peace process was being "openly sabotaged by Kiev." (RFE/RL, 02.19.18)
    • At the Munich Security Conference Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko denounced Russia as a destructive force in the world, suggesting that the "Russian world" brings nothing but ruin and despair to anything it touches. (RFE/RL, 02.19.18)
  • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says he has signed into law a bill that supporters say will help Kiev restore control of territory held by Russia-backed separatists in the country’s east. The bill, which passed with the support of 280 lawmakers in the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada, makes no reference to the Minsk agreements, raising questions about whether it could hamper efforts to end the fighting between the separatists and Kiev's forces. Poroshenko has also called Russia "an aggressor country" that planned "a well-coordinated hybrid war against Ukraine," as he testified in the treason trial of his ousted predecessor. (RFE/RL, 02.20.18, RFE/RL, 02.21.18)
  • Ukraine said on Feb. 21 one of its soldiers has been killed and seven others wounded in clashes with Russia-backed separatists in the country's east. (RFE/RL, 02.21.18)
  • EU diplomats are set to prolong sanctions against former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych but abandon the punitive measures imposed on two of his associates—one of whom was the proxy owner of a lavish estate outside Kiev. They said that the EU has concluded that there was not enough evidence to keep Serhiy Klyuyev and former Justice Minister Olena Lukash on the list of people targeted with sanctions. (RFE/RL, 02.20.18)
  • Ukraine's border service has banned Mikheil Saakashvili from entering Ukraine for three years. (RFE/RL, 02.21.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Uzbekistan's National Security Service has wielded immense power for decades, but its "time is up." Calling members of the security services "mad dogs," Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev accused them of targeting "anyone who managed to become successful in business." (RFE/RL, 02.19.18)
  • Secretly recorded audio obtained by RFE/RL appears to show the Uzbek finance minister's eagerness to deliver on Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev's demands that his ministry be purged of "incompetent" old-guard "rats." The ministry has reportedly dismissed some 1,000 employees since Mirziyoev used the insulting language during a Dec. 22 speech to parliament. (RFE/RL, 02.21.18)
  • Rejected Uzbek asylum seeker Rakhmat Akilov who has admitted to a truck attack that killed five people in Stockholm has told a court that his aim was to force Sweden to end its fight against Islamic State. (RFE/RL, 02.20.18)
  • Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev has decreed changes in the Latin-based alphabet that is to replace Cyrillic in the Central Asian country, abolishing apostrophes that came under severe criticism from linguists. (RFE/Rl, 02.20.18)
  • The Pentagon says U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has met with the Georgian prime minister and defense minister in Germany to discuss bilateral defense relations and regional security issues. (RFE/RL, 02.18.18)
  • The Dutch parliament on Feb. 22 passed a motion recognizing as genocide the massacre of as many as 1.5 million Armenians in 1915, but it will not become official policy of the Netherlands. (Reuters, 02.22.18)
  • The parliamentary factions of the ruling Republican Party and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, also known as Dashnaktsutyun, have nominated former Prime Minister Armen Sarkisian for president. (RFE/RL, 02.23.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • “We have to be very careful what we do on Russia,” one U.S. official said. “If Russia gets overly politicized, then we are toast when it comes to actually going after China, North Korea and Iran.” (Financial Times, 02.22.18)
  • "We're in trouble," Ian Bremmer, founder of the Eurasia Group, said in a Feb. 18 interview with Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper. "Because, you know, pretty much every geopolitical conflict out there is escalating, none of them are getting fixed and no one has any solutions." (RFE/RL, 02.19.18)