This Week’s Highlights

• U.S. President Joe Biden prepared to speak with NATO allies on Feb. 18 as U.S. officials said that as many as 190,000 Russian troops were arrayed in and near Ukraine, including Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, despite Moscow’s claims earlier in the week that it was withdrawing forces, according to The New York Times. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the situation in eastern Ukraine was “deteriorating” as shellfire rang out in eastern Ukraine on Feb. 18 and 17, the AFP reports, and separatists leaders in the Donbass said they were evacuating civilians into Russia, according to The Moscow Times. Additionally, Putin will be personally overseeing nuclear exercises to test ballistic and cruise missiles this weekend, the Financial Times reports.
• After months of rejecting the Kremlin's demands that NATO rule out Ukraine's membership, American officials have also begun to signal that the question is one for Ukrainians themselves to decide, The New York Times reports. After meeting with Putin on Feb. 15, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Ukrainian NATO membership “is not on the agenda,'' and pressed the idea of a lengthy delay, The New York Times reports. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not disavow a Ukrainian diplomat’s comment that Kyiv was considering dropping the country’s NATO ambitions, saying the prospect could be “like a dream,” according to The New York Times. At the same time, Ukrainians’ support for NATO membership has reached an all-time high, according to new polling by Ukraine’s polling organization Rating Group, The Moscow Times reports.
• Germany’s foreign minister suggested for the first time on Feb. 18 that military action by Moscow could mean the end of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, according to The New York Times. While cutting off Russia’s access to SWIFT is one of the potential sanctions being pushed by the U.S. in the event of an attack on Ukraine, EU officials say it is unlikely to be included in the first round of measures. Europe’s initial steps are more likely to be targeted sanctions on some of Russia’s biggest financial institutions, among them Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Alfa-Bank and The Russian Direct Investment Fund, according to the Financial Times. But, the Wall Street Journal reports, even sanctions against Russia's banking and other sectors could lead to energy-supply disruptions. Experts say the Western sanctions being discussed could cut off about 7% of the world's oil supply.
• Antony Blinken, U.S. secretary of state, invited his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to meet in Europe next week to prepare a possible summit of pivotal leaders to resolve “mutual security concerns.” Late on Feb. 17, Ned Price, the state department’s spokesperson, said Russia had responded with possible dates late next week for a meeting with Blinken, which the U.S. accepted, conditional on Russia not having invaded Ukraine, the Financial Times reports.
• Russia on Feb. 17 said it will be “forced to respond” with military-technical measures if the United States does not agree to its security demands. In an 11-page document presented to American officials, the Kremlin slammed the U.S. for not engaging with Russia’s security concerns and called for “legal guarantees” that Ukraine will never become a NATO member, according to The Moscow Times. However, the frenetic atmosphere around Russia’s troop deployments and the increasingly frequent airing of security grievances with the West may have already brought significant dividends for Putin, according to two people close to the Kremlin, the Financial Times reports.
• U.S. and Russian warplanes operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea flew dangerously close to each other in three separate incidents last weekend, including one in which the aircraft came within about five feet of each other, Pentagon officials said. The close calls, which occurred in international airspace, according to The New York Times.

 

I. SPECIAL SECTION: Ukraine-Russia-NATO Crisis

• As U.S. President Joe Biden prepared to speak with NATO allies on Feb. 18, U.S. officials said that as many as 190,000 Russian troops were arrayed in and near Ukraine, a number that includes Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. The officials also repeated warnings that Moscow would try to manufacture a provocation by Ukraine to justify an invasion of its smaller neighbor. Biden will speak publicly about the troop buildup and the United States’ diplomatic efforts in the afternoon after his conversation with NATO leaders, the administration said. (The New York Times, 02.18.22)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said Feb. 18 that the situation in eastern Ukraine was “deteriorating” and called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to launch negotiations with Russian-backed separatists as shellfire rang out in eastern Ukraine on Feb. 18. Kyiv and Washington accused Russia of seeking to provoke an incident to falsely justify an invasion and Moscow-backed rebels said they were evacuating civilians from their breakaway enclave.  (AFP, 02.18.22, The Moscow Times, 02.18.22)
  • The two pro-Moscow separatist regions in eastern Ukraine will launch a “mass evacuation” of civilians into Russia starting Feb. 18, accusing Kyiv of planning to invade the breakaway territory. Denis Pushilin, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said in a televised address that the evacuation into the neighboring Rostov region has been coordinated with “Russian leadership.” (The Moscow Times, 02.18.22)
• Artillery shells struck a town on the Ukrainian government-controlled side of the frontline in eastern Ukraine on Feb. 17, damaging a kindergarten and wounding three adult civilians, the Ukrainian military said. Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists accused each other Feb. 17 of violating a cease-fire in the eastern part of the country, a potential flash point in what Western officials say are Russian preparations for a possible attack by growing forces massed near Ukraine’s borders. (The New York Times, 02.17.22, The Washington Post, 02.17.22)
  • “Thirty-three incidents of ceasefire violation by the Russian occupation forces were observed, including 22 incidents when the Russian occupation forces utilised [artillery] weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreements,” Ukraine’s army said in a statement on Friday. Russian-backed separatists said on their website: “Armed formations of Ukraine fired 286 [artillery] munitions during shelling of settlements in the Donetsk People’s Republic.” (Financial Times, 02.18.22)
  • “It’s most likely that they expected the Ukrainian side to retaliate so that they could blame us for escalating the situation,” said Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister. “The provocations won’t end. Our goal is to remain cool-headed, respond adequately but not to be provoked,” Reznikov added. (Financial Times, 02.18.22)
• Moscow said it planned to hold nuclear exercises to test ballistic and cruise missiles this weekend. The developments heightened fears that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine after the U.S. warned an attack was “imminent” and raised its estimate of Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border to more than 169,000. Putin will personally supervise the drills. “We are seeing an escalation in the Donbas,” Putin said Feb. 18. He denied Russia was planning to invade, adding: “Of course, we are looking at what is happening around the world and around us. But we have clearly defined guidelines in line with the national interests of the Russian people and the Russian state.” (Financial Times, 02.18.22)
• Biden has warned that Russia is on the brink of invading Ukraine within “several days”, saying the U.S. believes the Kremlin is engaged in “a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in.” Antony Blinken, U.S. secretary of state, invited his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to meet in Europe next week to prepare a possible summit of pivotal leaders to resolve “mutual security concerns.” Late on Feb. 17, Ned Price, the state department’s spokesperson, said Russia had responded with possible dates late next week for a meeting with Blinken, which the U.S. accepted, conditional on Russia not having invaded Ukraine. (Financial Times, 12.17.22)
• The situation on Ukraine’s borders and in the area of eastern Ukraine held by Russian separatists was “very worrying,” French President Emmanuel Macron said at a news conference on Feb. 18. Macron said the West had no proof of the Russian military disengagement promised by Putin and remained united in its response. “We all need to keep very calm,” the French president said. “I have heard the words of President Putin, and the acts must follow.” (Financial Times, 02.18.22)
• Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, said Feb. 18 there had been a “dramatic increase” in violence on the line of contact in eastern Ukraine over the past 48 hours. “This is one of the most dangerous moments, where from provocation and disinformation we can see escalation,” she said. (Financial Times, 02.18.22)
  • “In the current, extremely dangerous situation it would have been so important to meet Russian representatives in Munich [at the Munich Security Conference],” said Baerbock in a statement. “We are prepared to have a serious dialogue about security for all,” she said. “Even millimeter steps in the direction of peace are better than big steps in the direction of war.” “But we also need from Russia serious steps towards de-escalation,” she continued. “Statements on the withdrawal of troops must be backed up with verifiable troop withdrawals, a commitment to [the] Minsk [peace process for eastern Ukraine] with a real readiness to negotiate.” (Financial Times, 02.18.22)
• Russia on Feb. 17 said it will be “forced to respond” with military-technical measures if the United States does not agree to its security demands. In an 11-page document presented to American officials, the Kremlin slammed the U.S. for not engaging with Russia’s security concerns and called for “legal guarantees” that Ukraine will never become a NATO member.  “In the absence of any readiness from the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees to ensure our security … Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures,” the document says. "There is no 'Russian invasion' of Ukraine, which the United States and its allies have been announcing officially since last fall, and it is not planned," the document said. Russia also called on the U.S. and NATO to “stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine, withdraw all Western advisers and instructors from the country, stop participating in joint exercises with Ukraine’s armed forces and withdraw all foreign weapons previously supplied to Kyiv.” (The Moscow Times/AFP, 02.17.22)
• Russia continues to increase the number of troops it has massed on the Ukrainian border, NATO’s secretary-general warned on Feb. 16, even though Moscow insisted that it was withdrawing forces. “We have not seen any de-escalation,” Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.“We see they have increased the number of troops and more troops are on their way … We are prepared for the worst.” (Financial Times, 02.16.22)
• The latest photos from the satellite company Maxar Technologies appear to show increased Russian military activity near Ukraine on Feb. 14-16, including the building of a pontoon bridge in Belarus and the arrival of attack helicopters. (RFE/RL, 02.17.22)
• Speaking Feb. 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that “a decision has been taken to partially withdraw forces” following what Moscow claims were exercises involving more than 130,000 troops. On Feb. 15, the defense ministry announced that some units of its southern and western military districts, which border Ukraine, had completed drills and would be pulling back to base. (Financial Times, 02.16.22)
  • The Kremlin said Feb. 17 that Russia's withdrawal of forces would take place over an extended period, after reports of Moscow's drawdown drew skepticism from Kyiv's allies. "This is a process that will take some time," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said. (The Moscow Times, 02.17.22)
  • Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko landed in Moscow on Feb. 18 for talks with Putin that Minsk said could determine how much longer Russian military forces remain in the ex-Soviet republic north of Ukraine. Belarus's foreign minister Vladimir Makei said Feb. 16 that "not a single" Russian soldier will remain in the country after the massive joint maneuvers by Minsk and Moscow on Ukraine's border end. (Reuters, 02.18.22, AFP, 02.16.22)
  • Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow defense think-tank, said the withdrawal amounted to “open de-escalation” but did not mean the tensions would necessarily subside. Russia’s focus on sending heavy weaponry and equipment to the border first may have also led western governments to overestimate the forces near the Ukrainian border, Pukhov added. (Financial Times, 02.16.22)
  • Russia said Feb. 18 it was withdrawing more tanks and other armored vehicles from areas near Ukraine's border after running war games that had raised concerns in the West. (The Moscow Times, 02.18.22)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at NATO headquarters Feb. 17 that Russia's military preparations were moving ahead. "We see them fly in more combat and support aircraft. We see them sharpen their readiness in the Black Sea," Austin said. "We even see them stocking up their blood supplies." Austin, a retired Army general, said: "I know firsthand that you don't do these sorts of things for no reason. And you certainly don't do them if you're getting ready to pack up and go home." (The Wall Street Journal, 02.17.22)
• Biden said Feb. 15 that the United States had yet to see proof of a Russian withdrawal and that Russian troops—which he estimated at more than 150,000—remain “very much in a threatening position.” The U.S. State Department has not yet seen signs of de-escalation, spokesman Ned Price said Feb. 16. (RFE/RL, 02.16.22, Financial Times, 02.16.22)
• Russia has increased its presence on the border with Ukraine by "as many as 7,000 troops," some of whom arrived Feb. 16, said a senior White House official, slamming Moscow's announcement of a withdrawal as "false." (AFP, 02.17.22)
• On Feb. 16, Blinken said that the military units critical for an invasion force were continuing to move ''toward the border, not away from the border.'' The American official directly accused Russia of lying, saying there was fresh evidence it was mobilizing for war. British military officials said Feb. 16 they had spotted Russian armored vehicles, helicopters and a field hospital moving toward Ukraine's border. (The New York Times, 02.16.22)
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz echoed Feb. 16 that "the risk of a further military aggression by Russia" remains "high," according to a statement issued following a phone call with Biden. (AFP, 02.17.22)
• Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, has voiced skepticism about the reports of de-escalation. Zelensky said: “To be honest we react to the reality we have and we don’t see any withdrawal yet. We just heard about it.” (Financial Times, 02.16.22)
• Vladimir Chizhov, Russia’s ambassador to the EU, told Die Welt that “there will be no attack this coming Wednesday.” He added: “Nor will there be any escalation next week or the week after, or next month.” (Financial Times, 02.16.22)
• Dmitri Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said he expected many Russian troops to remain positioned near the border, in part to maintain that state of tension. ''He [Putin] will keep the pressure on until he gets a satisfactory answer to his main question,'' he said. ''We are at the end of the beginning,'' Trenin said, suggesting negotiations could continue for some time. ''The game itself is still to come.'' (The New York Times, 02.16.22)
• Russia is holding "unprecedented" naval exercises on the Black Sea, increasing fears that a maritime assault could be part of a possible invasion of Ukraine. The drills that are scheduled to run until Feb. 19 have disrupted vital shipping lanes crucial to Ukraine's exports like grain and steel. Even without an invasion, a blockade of Ukraine's maritime routes could suffocate the country economically from the sea. (RFE/RL, 02.15.22)
• The websites of the Ukrainian armed forces and several Ukrainian ministries and banks have been crippled by a cyberattack, the Ukrainian government says. The website of the Defense Ministry "probably suffered DDoS (distributed denial-of-service) attacks when an excessive number of requests per second was recorded," the ministry said on Twitter on Feb. 15, adding that efforts to fix the problem and restore access were under way. (RFE/RL, 02.15.22)
• Russian government hackers have likely broadly penetrated Ukrainian military, energy and other critical computer networks to collect intelligence and position themselves potentially to disrupt those systems should Russia launch a military assault on Ukraine, according to newly declassified U.S. intelligence. (The Washington Post, 02.15.22)
  • The United States and its allies are prepared to respond to Russian cyberattacks amid escalating tensions over Ukraine, with the scope of retaliatory actions or sanctions depending on the severity of the hacks, U.S. and European officials said Feb. 15. Biden, speaking hours after Ukraine reported its defense ministry and two banks had been hacked, told reporters that Washington was coordinating closely with NATO allies and other partners to expand defenses against threats in cyberspace. (Reuters, 02.15.22)
• In Moscow, the Russian government has expelled the U.S. Embassy’s second-ranking diplomat, Deputy Chief of Mission Bart Gorman, the State Department confirmed Feb. 17. No reason was immediately given for the expulsion of Gorman. A statement called the move “unprovoked” and “an escalatory step” and said the United States is “considering our response.” A State Department official said later that Gorman departed last week. (The Washington Post, 02.17.22)
• After months of rejecting the Kremlin's demands that NATO rule out Ukraine's membership, American officials have also begun to signal that the question is one for Ukrainians themselves to decide. Analysts say the trick will be to devise a plan that will be acceptable to the Kremlin without provoking a backlash in Ukraine that could destabilize the government. A Ukrainian deputy prime minister suggested a referendum as a way to sell what would surely appear to be a concession to the Ukrainian public. In a signal of possible American support, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said in an interview published Feb. 16 that the U.S. would support any decision made by the Ukrainians. (The New York Times, 02.16.22)
• ''Everyone must step back a bit here and make it clear to themselves that we just can't have a possible military conflict over a question that is not on the agenda,'' Scholz said after meeting with Putin Feb. 15, speaking of Ukrainian NATO membership. Scholz pressed the idea of a lengthy delay, saying any Ukrainian entry into NATO was not likely during either of their terms in office. (The New York Times, 02.16.22)
• In public, officials including the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, have rejected concessions as counterproductive and likely only to encourage further Russian aggression. But Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain and a former foreign minister under Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on Feb. 13 said his government was “flexible in trying to find the best way out” and was considering dropping the country’s NATO ambitions.
  • Zelensky did not disavow Prystaiko’s comment. He said it reflected suggestions the Ukrainian government has received including from foreign leaders. These he characterized as “hinting just a tiny bit to Ukraine that it’s possible to not risk it and constantly hit on the question about future membership in the alliance, because these risks are linked to a reaction from Russia.” The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, he posited, could be “like a dream.” (The New York Times, 02.14.22)
  • However, Zelensky also said that, if it were up to him, Ukraine would already be in NATO. "We won't give up on our path to NATO," he said following talks with Scholz. He also repeated requests for heavy weaponry to fight off any potential attack from Russian troops.. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.14.22)
• Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Feb. 14 that Ukraine's formally abandoning the idea of NATO membership would contribute to addressing Russia's security concerns, according to Russia's TASS news agency. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.14.22)
• Ukrainians’ support for NATO membership has reached an all-time high, according to new polling. After dropping to 55% in December, support for Ukraine’s NATO membership climbed back up in January and reached 62% in February, according to the survey by Ukraine’s polling organization Rating Group published Feb. 18. “This is the highest indicator of positive perception of Ukraine's integration into NATO in the history of observations since 2014,” it said. (The Moscow Times, 02.18.22)
• When Blinken offered in his speech on Feb. 17 to meet his Russian counterpart in Europe next week, and ultimately to put together “a summit of key leaders, in the context of de-escalation, to reach understandings on our mutual security concerns,’’ it was part of the search for a modern-day analogue to the solution to the Cuban missile crisis. Biden is no stranger to such trade-offs. He is perhaps the last politician still serving in Washington who played a key role in the debates over how to resolve disputes over long-forgotten arms control treaties with the Soviets, called SALT I and SALT II. But by next week, one senior administration official said late Feb. 17, it may be too late. (The New York Times, 02.17.22)
• "We are ready to work further together. We are ready to go down the negotiations track," Putin said following talks with Scholz in Moscow. "Of course" Russia doesn't want war, Putin said. But it "cannot turn a blind eye" to how Washington and NATO "freely interpret" the principle of the indivisibility of security—that no country should strengthen its security at the expense of others. (The Moscow Times, 02.16.22)
• After three hours of talks with Scholz, Putin said he was prepared to hold negotiations on intermediate nuclear missile forces and confidence-building measures if the U.S. and NATO agreed to discuss Moscow’s grievances with the transatlantic alliance—including its chief demand that it pledge to never admit Ukraine. (Financial Times, 02.15.22)
• On Feb. 15, Russian lawmakers passed a nonbinding resolution urging Putin to formally recognize the pro-Russian separatist republics of eastern Ukraine. Recognizing the republics would deal a heavy blow to Minsk 2. "We will do everything to solve the problem in Donbass but we will do this first of all based on the unrealized possibilities of the Minsk agreements," Putin told reporters, appearing to distance himself from the lawmakers' resolution. (The Moscow Times, 02.16.22)
  • If Putin were to approve the independence of the two Donbass statelets, it would be akin to “a weaponless aggression” on Ukraine and would “breach the Minsk accords,” Le Drian said, adding that Putin gave Macron assurances that he did not intend to act on the resolution. Le Drian refused to be drawn on whether such a move by Russia would trigger Western economic sanctions. (Financial Times, 02.17.22)
  • Washington strongly condemned the proposal to recognize the separatist territories in Ukraine's east as independent, with Blinken saying such a move would "constitute a gross violation of international law." (RFE/RL, 02.16.22)
• Both Scholz and Biden suggested that an acceptable compromise to all countries with a stake in Europe’s security, including Ukraine, was possible. “There’s a fact and this fact is that all participants know that Ukraine’s NATO membership isn’t on the agenda,” Scholz said after the meeting with Putin. Biden said: “We will not sacrifice basic principles. Nations have a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity and the freedom to set their own course and choose with whom they will associate. But that still leaves plenty of room for diplomacy and for de-escalation as the best way forward for all parties, in our view”. (Financial Times, 02.15.22)
• As fears grow of potential Russian aggression against Ukraine, a "Tiger Team" led by the White House is quietly gaming out how the United States would respond to a range of jarring scenarios, from a limited show of force to a full-scale, mass-casualty invasion. The White House team has staged two multihour tabletop exercises—including one with Cabinet officials—to bring the scenarios to life and assembled a playbook that outlines an array of swift potential responses, starting with Day One and extending through the first two weeks of an envisioned Russian invasion. The effort, senior administration officials said, has not only helped them anticipate possible complications, but has also prompted them to take actions ahead of time, such as exposing Russian information warfare before it's carried out to blunt its propaganda power (The Washington Post, 02.14.22)
• A senior Biden administration official said a Feb. 12 call between Biden and Putin: “The call between the two presidents was professional and substantive, and lasted a bit over an hour. But there was no fundamental change in the dynamic which has been unfolding now for several weeks.” (Financial Times, 02.12.22)
  • Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, said the call was “balanced and businesslike” but accused the U.S. and its western allies of “unprecedented hysteria” in claiming Russia was planning to invade Ukraine, which he said was “absurd.” Biden told Putin that the U.S. and Russia needed to put their differences aside to “support peace and security” and find a way to avoid “the worst scenario” in Ukraine, Ushakov said. (Financial Times, 02.12.22)
• Emmanuel Macron, the French president, called Putin for 90 minutes on Feb. 12, telling him that “a sincere dialogue was not compatible with an escalation.” (Financial Times, 02.12.22)
• Macron’s advisers and officials were struck at how Putin had changed in recent years, saying he had become preoccupied by the loss of Russian influence since the Soviet Union collapsed and the need to be tougher with the U.S. and NATO, even if that meant cozying up to China. “Putin has got much harder even in private since 2014,” one French official said. “This is a Putin who no longer believes in the West . . . He wants to be feared by the West.” (Financial Times, 02.14.22)
• Before and after his last long conversation with Putin last month, The Finnish president, Sauli Niinisto, said he had noticed a change in the Russian. “His state of mind, the deciding, decisiveness—that is clearly different,” Niinisto said. He believed Putin felt he had to seize on “the momentum he has now.” (The New York Times, 02.11.22)
• People close to the Kremlin say Putin’s increasingly hardline stance is partly owing to the extensive efforts he takes to avoid falling sick with COVID-19. The restrictions have made Putin increasingly reliant on a small group of security advisers, said a former senior Kremlin official. “His circle of contacts is getting smaller. It affects his mind,” the former official said. “He used to see things in 360 degrees—now it’s more like 60.” Putin’s ultimate plans remain a mystery to all but his closest advisers. “It’s just four guys at the end of the day,” said a Western diplomat in Moscow, referring to Putin and his close advisers. “They have some tea, go over some papers and decide everything. He’s not someone who enjoys a lot of company.” (Financial Times, 02.14.22)
• The U.S. state department said most of its staff would leave its embassy in Kyiv, while American citizens would be offered emergency assistance from the western city of Lviv. Maria Zakharova, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, said Moscow had decided to “optimize” its staff at its Kyiv embassy and three consulates in Ukraine “out of caution over possible provocations from the Kyiv regime or third countries.” Germany and Spain called on their citizens to leave Ukraine. The German foreign ministry said it was relocating a consulate in the eastern city of Dnipro to Lviv. Its embassy in Kyiv will remain open. The U.S. and U.K. also said they would withdraw the limited numbers of troops who were training Ukrainian forces. (Financial Times, 02.12.22)
  • The State Department reportedly ordered the destruction of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv's networking equipment and computer workstations, as well as to dismantle its telephone system. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.14.22)
• Australia on Feb. 13 joined a growing list of governments ordering the evacuation of their embassies in Kyiv. The United States, Germany, Britain, Latvia, Norway, the Netherlands, Israel, South Korea and Japan and others have been scaling back their diplomatic presence and urging their citizens to get out of Ukraine as soon as possible in recent days. On Feb. 12, Canada said it will relocate its staff from Kyiv to Lviv. (The Washington Post, 02.13.22)
• Despite the heightened warnings that Russia could invade at any time, the European Union said Feb. 12 it is not closing its diplomatic missions in Ukraine. (The Washington Post, 02.13.22)
• Ben Wallace, the British defense secretary, criticized Western efforts at reaching a diplomatic solution with Russia as “appeasement” in an interview with the Sunday Times. He compared the situation with the prelude to World War II, when Western powers ceded territory to Germany in the hopes of avoiding conflict. (The New York Times, 02.11.22)
• Macron is convinced that the current crisis reflects a failure to rethink Europe's collective security after the end of the Cold War. In effect, Macron believes that some sleight of hand is conceivable that would at once leave Ukrainians free and secure to look West for their future, and Putin free to continue thinking the two countries form one ''historical and spiritual space.” (The New York Times, 02.12.22)
• The United States will consider rotating additional U.S. troops through NATO member countries on Europe's eastern flank, should Russia mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and NATO would also bulk up its presence in those countries with forces and armaments, U.S. and European officials said. Meanwhile, 1,000 U.S. soldiers were to arrive in Romania from a U.S. installation in Germany, adding to the 900 U.S. troops already in that eastern European country. A U.S. official said the Biden administration would not feel at all constrained by the NATO-Russia act if Moscow were to violate the pact by mounting a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (The Washington Post, 02.12.22)
  • Hundreds of U.S. paratroopers landed at a Polish airport near the Ukrainian border on February 16 as part of a deployment of several thousand to bolster NATO's eastern flank amid tensions with Russia. The United States has said it is planning to temporarily deploy around 4,700 additional soldiers to Poland in response to Russia's troop build-up around Ukraine. The arrivals will bring the U.S. military presence in Poland to around 10,000 troops on rotation. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 02.16.22)
• Blinken urged his Russian counterpart on Feb. 12 to reduce Moscow’s military buildup surrounding Ukraine, warning that an attack “would result in a resolute, massive and united” response from the United States and Western allies. In its own statement about the phone call, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that Lavrov had repeated Moscow’s contention that American warnings of a looming Russian invasion were meant to encourage Ukraine to attack Russian-backed separatists in the country’s east. (The New York Times, 02.12.22)
• American intelligence agencies have warned the Biden administration of a new Russian operation meant to create a false pretext for the invasion of Ukraine, according to people briefed on the material, but the details of an attack, including its timing, were unclear. (The New York Times, 02.12.22)
• Russian media over the past few months publicized the launch of a website masquerading as a portal set up by human rights advocates in eastern Ukraine. In fact, the official said, it spread false allegations of genocide committed by the Ukrainian military. The site, donbasstragedy.info, was covertly created by the GRU, the official said. On Feb. 11, the TASS news agency reported, without evidence, that the head of the self-proclaimed separatist territory of Donetsk had announced the discovery of 130 mass graves of "victims of Ukrainian aggression." (The Washington Post, 02.11.22)
• On Feb. 16, Russia passed a report about the alleged crimes committed by the Ukrainian military to Secretary-General António Guterres, who circulated it to Security Council members, a spokesman for Guterres said. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.18.22)
• U.S. and European intelligence analysts had previously said that Putin might wait until after the conclusion of the Olympics on Feb. 20 to launch an invasion, to not upstage his close ally, Chinese President Xi Jinping. But that timeline appeared to be changing. "What we can say is that there is a credible prospect that a Russian military action would take place even before the end of the Olympics," Sullivan said. (The Washington Post, 02.11.22) 
• The frenetic atmosphere around the deployments and the increasingly frequent airing of security grievances with the West may have already brought significant dividends for Putin, according to two people close to the Kremlin. The current crisis over Ukraine is the first time that Moscow has felt the West is listening to its demands, the people close to the Kremlin said. (Financial Times, 02.14.22)
• Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau of Poland was also scheduled to visit Moscow on February 15 to meet with his Russian counterpart. And Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio of Italy prepared to depart for his own Eastern European tour, which was to bring him to Kyiv on February 15 and Moscow on February 16. (The New York Times, 02.14.22)
• Biden spoke by phone with Zelensky on Feb. 13, reiterating the United States' pledge that it would respond "swiftly and decisively" to any attack, the White House said, through sanctions and other measures designed to inflict severe economic penalties on Russia. According to a readout of the call from Ukrainian officials, Zelensky invited Biden to visit Ukraine "in the coming days," a visit Zelensky said would send "a powerful signal" and contribute to de-escalation. (The Washington Post, 02.13.22)
• Ukraine also requested a meeting with Russia and other members of the OSCE within 48 hours of Moscow's failure to meet a Feb. 13 deadline to explain its massing of more than 130,000 troops along its border with Ukraine and in Crimea. (The Washington Post, 02.13.22)
• National Airlines, a closely held U.S. cargo and passenger charter carrier, said Sunday it had flown its last planned flight for the U.S. military into Ukraine. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.13.22)
• Scholz insisted that Germany stood “shoulder to shoulder” with Ukraine. He said Germany had decided to speed up the release of €150mn in loans to Kyiv along with a new credit worth another €150mn. Germany had given Ukraine more than $2bn in economic aid since 2014, he added. (Financial Times, 02.14.22)
• An additional seventy German troops were deployed to Lithuania on Feb. 14, bringing Berlin’s total contingent within the country up to three hundred and sixty, according to Reuters. (National Interest, 02.16.22)
• Lavrov on Feb. 14 suggested to Putin that Moscow continue along the diplomatic path in its efforts to extract security guarantees from the West. In a televised exchange, Putin was shown asking Lavrov whether there was a chance of reaching an agreement to address Russia's security concerns, or whether it was just being dragged into tortuous negotiations Lavrov replied: "We have already warned more than once that we will not allow endless negotiations on questions that demand a solution today." But as foreign minister, he said, "I must say there are always chances." (Reuters, 02.14.22)
• It is unlikely that the people involved in decision-making in Moscow really expected that their demands would be satisfied exactly in the form in which they were put forward. Whatever Russian officials say publicly, they are well aware that no U.S. president can announce the abolition of NATO's "open door policy," even in relation to a single country, in this particular case, Ukraine, according to Kommersant. (Russia Matters, 02.14.22)
• Zelensky acknowledged that he and Scholz had disagreed on some issues during their talks, in particular the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. “We see NS2 exclusively through the prism of energy and security risks for us and the region,” said Zelensky. “We clearly understand that this is a geopolitical weapon.” (Financial Times, 02.14.22)
• On Feb. 14 in Kyiv, Scholz said Zelensky had assured him he would outline draft laws on Donbass’s special status, the constitutional amendment and the electoral law for Minsk talks. “Ukraine is making a very big contribution here,” Scholz said. (Financial Times, 02.16.22)
• Ukrainian oligarchs and wealthy businessmen are fleeing the country as tensions with Russia reach a boiling point and Western countries order their citizens to leave, the Ukrainskaya Pravda news website reported Feb. 14. At least 20 chartered flights departed from Kyiv on Feb. 13, more than at any other time in the last six years of flight observations. (The Moscow Times, 02.15.22)
• While Oleg Tsaryov said he spent last weekend in the Crimean foothills searching for his lost dog, western intelligence assessed the former Ukrainian lawmaker could be lined up for something more sinister: heading up a Kremlin plot to lead a puppet government in Kyiv in the event of a Russian invasion. Moscow “might position Oleg Tsaryov, and others, in leadership roles as part of this effort,” a Western intelligence official said. Tsaryov’s name as Putin’s possible choice to lead regime change in Ukraine came from U.S. intelligence, which made it available to the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. (Financial Times, 02.15.22)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted Feb. 13 that the Ukrainian military took delivery of about one hundred and eighty tons of ammunition from the United States. Reznikov added on Twitter that Ukraine has so far received 1,500 tons of ammunition spread across seventeen flights. (National Interest, 02.15.22)
• As the current head of the U.N. Security Council, Russia plans to hold a meeting on Ukraine at the U.N. Russian media has reported the withdrawal of some troops on Ukraine’s eastern border following combat training events, but Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary-general, warned that he had not thus far seen “any sign of de-escalation.” (Financial Times, 02.17.22)
• The U.K.’s foreign secretary Liz Truss will travel to Ukraine on Feb. 17. (Financial Times, 02.17.22)
• Jean-Yves Le Drian, France’s foreign minister, said in an interview that there were “no more rules” governing European security and stability. Putin “can choose to make Russia a destabilizing power . . . which could mean a permanent strategy of tension over the long term, or he can choose to become the actor, the partner, in a new security and stability order in Europe,” he told the Financial Times. “While there is a demand from Russia for stability, for guarantees, there is also a demand for stability and for guarantees from our side,” Le Drian said. “Europe needs guarantees of security and stability. We’re ready to talk about it, about everything.” He outlined a three-phase approach to defuse the crisis: the verified withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine’s borders; a resumption of talks on the Minsk accords to resolve war between Moscow-backed separatists and Kyiv in the Donbass; and a new European security framework. (Financial Times, 02.17.22)
• Russian mercenaries with ties to Moscow's spies have increased their presence in Ukraine in recent weeks, stoking fears among some NATO members that Russia could try to engineer a pretext for an invasion, three senior Western security sources said. They said their concerns had strengthened in recent weeks that a Russian incursion into Ukraine could be preceded by an information war, and cyber attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure such as electricity and gas networks. (Reuters, 02.14.22)
• U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris met NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and leaders from three Baltic nations on Feb. 18 and said Russia must show it is open to diplomacy, while warning Moscow of severe consequences if it invades Ukraine. (Reuters, 02.18.22)

 

II. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• On Feb. 16, an Iranian negotiator, Bagheri Khani, tweeted regarding the revival of the JCPOA: “After weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though.” (The New York Times, 02.18.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. and Russian warplanes operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea flew dangerously close to each other in three separate incidents last weekend, including one in which the aircraft came within about five feet of each other, Pentagon officials said. The close calls, which occurred in international airspace on Feb. 11 and Feb. 12, involved three Russian Su-35 jet fighters that crossed into the flight path of three U.S. P-8A surveillance aircraft, the officials said. (The New York Times, 02.16.22)
• The United States on February 12 denied that it had carried out military operations in Russian territorial waters, after Moscow said a Russian naval vessel chased away a U.S. submarine in Russian waters in the Pacific. Russia accused Washington of breaking international law and creating a national security threat over the incident at a time of high tensions between Moscow and Washington over a Russian military buildup near Ukraine. (Reuters, 02.12.22)

Sanctions:

• EU leaders meeting in Brussels Feb. 17 managed to put up a united front on Russia, given that their discussion was kept brief and vague enough to avoid any disagreements over what type of aggression against Ukraine would trigger sanctions. Here’s a list of issues that remain contentious, even if leaders steered clear from tussling over them yesterday:
  • Sanctions trigger: Leaders didn’t suggest that recent shelling in Donbass should be considered sufficient for adopting the new sanctions. But they are also not in full agreement on what kind of attack would trigger the sanctions. There seems to be a consensus emerging, however, that not just a full-scale invasion should trigger the sanctions, but also various degrees of aggression.
  • Blacklisted names: The initial proposal made by the bloc’s diplomatic service is for 27 Russians to be blacklisted. Officials say the initial list could be lengthened, depending on the severity of the attack.
  • Mitigation and compensation: Several leaders yesterday floated the possibility of the EU compensating countries worst-affected by the fallout of the sanctions regime, for instance if Russia were to cut gas deliveries to central and eastern Europe, officials said. Italy, in particular, is interested in finding ways of mitigating the impact of sanctions on hard-hit member states.
  • Sanctions talk: EU countries are not all on the same page when it comes to communicating in detail and publicly what sanctions to expect in case of an invasion. Poland, the Baltics, but also Greece, would like a more U.S.-style approach, where a maximum amount of detail is made public now to deter Russia from attacking. Other member states—Germany, France and Italy included—espouse the view that Moscow would see this as a provocation and that communicating privately and in broad terms is sufficient. (Financial Times, 02.18.22)
• Viktor Orban, Hungary’s leader, warned European leaders that threatening Moscow with sanctions was “a dead end.” (Financial Times, 02.12.22) 
• While the effect of the sanctions would depend on their severity, most analysts agree that they are likely to have a destabilizing effect on the Russian economy. One of the greatest impacts will be on foreign debt. If re-financing of debt continues at the same underwhelming level as the fourth quarter of last year, the total external debt of the private sector could fall from $381bn to $361bn at the end of 2022 and $352bn at the end of 2023. In a study of the possible credit consequences of further sanctions against Russia, experts from S&P Global Ratings noted that “Russia's net external asset position of some 40% of GDP and the government's net debt position of around 5% of GDP are among the strongest among all the 137 sovereigns we rate.”  (BNE IntelliNews, 02.12.22)
• Cutting off Russia’s access to SWIFT is one of the potential sanctions being pushed by the U.S. should the country attack its neighbor. EU officials say it is under discussion but unlikely to be included in the first round of measures. Europe’s initial steps are more likely to be targeted sanctions on some of Russia’s biggest financial institutions, among them Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Alfa-Bank and The Russian Direct Investment Fund. (Financial Times, 02.16.22) 
• Klaas Knot, chair of the Financial Stability Board, told the Financial Times that suspending Russia’s access to SWIFT could result in a “severe disruption in payment flows.” Knot said financial regulators around the world had already started trying to estimate the impact of a Ukraine invasion on global banks but that it was “very, very hard to predict” the indirect effects. (Financial Times, 02.16.22)
• The Biden administration, in devising what it vows would be punishing economic penalties if Russia were to attack Ukraine, is factoring in whether China would come to Moscow's aid and circumvent sanctions and other punitive measures.  (The Wall Street Journal, 02.15.22.)
  • Should Beijing decide to aid Russia, the two could try to bypass the global financial system dominated by the U.S. by increasing trade in Chinese yuan and by using a nascent Chinese interbank payments system for cross-border finance instead of the dominant SWIFT system used world-wide. Beijing could also obstruct planned U.S. export controls by using a newly passed anti-foreign-sanctions law to instruct businesses operating in China to ignore the U.S. restrictions or face penalties, according to analysts. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.15.22.)
• The export controls the Biden administration is weighing against Russia are similar to those the Trump administration applied against Huawei. Instead of targeting a single company, the application of what is known as the foreign direct product rule could cover an entire sector or sectors, making enforcement more difficult. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.15.22.)
• Germany’s foreign minister suggested for the first time on Feb. 18 that military action by Moscow could mean the end of Nord Stream 2, a natural-gas pipeline running from Russia to Germany. (The New York Times, 02.18.22)
• A disagreement about how to treat a Russian natural-gas pipeline has halted Democratic and Republican efforts to cut a deal on sanctions legislation targeting Russia. At the center of the dispute are disagreements about the timing and certainty of sanctions aimed at stopping gas from flowing in the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The impasse raises the risk that the White House and Capitol Hill might not have a unified message if an invasion occurs, said people following the talks. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.16.22)
  • Some Republicans see the pipeline as part of the existing threat against Ukraine and want to impose sanctions on it immediately. Republicans also want to give the Biden administration less wiggle room on what constitutes an invasion, lawmakers and people following the legislation said. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.16.22)
  • Another issue that has divided lawmakers is the effect of sanctions on Russian banks and debt because European banks are active in the Russian market and a variety of companies do business with the large Russian banks that dominate the country's financial system. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.16.22)
• U.S. lawmakers say they have given Biden wide-ranging authorities to impose sanctions on Russian entities. Moreover, U.S. officials have signaled in recent weeks they will use existing authorities to hit Russian banks and impose export controls on high technology, aimed at the country's economy and limiting growth. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.16.22)
• On Feb. 15, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Jim Risch, released his own Ukraine-related bill with 31 Republican co-sponsors. Dubbed the "Nyet Act," the bill would require sanctions on Nord Stream 2 without the possibility of a White House waiver if Russia invades Ukraine, but would allow for the suspensions of sanctions on the pipeline as long as the German government doesn't certify it for operation. The bill also would authorize additional military support for Ukraine and add to funding to deter Russian influence and military operations in Europe. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.16.22)
• Switzerland-based mining and commodities trading giant Glencore has said it recently sold its stake in a Russian oil company after its founder was placed under sanctions by the European Union. Glencore, a publicly traded company, announced on Feb. 15 that it agreed at the end of 2021 to exit its minority stake in Russneft, a small Russian oil producer founded by Mikhail Gutseriyev. (RFE/RL, 02.15.22)
• The U.K. is preparing to abolish its so-called “golden visa” regime within weeks, as Russian actions over Ukraine spurred renewed calls to tackle “dirty money” flooding into the U.K. The Tier 1 “investor visa” route has in the past attracted wealthy Russian and other international investors, who have resettled in the U.K. under the scheme. Parliament’s intelligence and security committee warned in 2020 that “the exploitation of the UK’s investor visa scheme” was a draw for many Russians. (Financial Times, 02.17.22)
• American and European officials have said sanctions on Russia's oil-and-gas industries aren't being considered now, a recognition that such measures would lead to unsustainable price increases. But even sanctions against Russia's banking and other sectors could lead to energy-supply disruptions because oil-and-gas traders may pull back from the risk of working with a sanctioned country. Experts say the Western sanctions being discussed could cut off about 7% of the world's oil supply. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.17.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• The Russian military on February 15 deployed long-range nuclear-capable bombers and fighter jets carrying state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles to its air base in Syria for massive naval drills in the region. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in Syria to oversee the drills that mark the biggest Russian naval deployment to the Mediterranean Sea since the Cold War times. Shoigu met with Syrian President Bashar Assad to inform him about the drills and discuss plans for further military-technical cooperation. (The Washington Post, 02.15.22)

Cyber security:

• A court in Russia has handed lengthy prison sentences to members of a hacker group whose leader claimed he was recruited by the country's FSB to hack into the servers of the U.S. Democratic Party. The Kirov district court in Yekaterinburg on Feb. 14 sentenced 21 members of the hacker group known as Lurk to prison terms of between five and 14 years. One suspect remains at large. (RFE/RL, 02.15.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Last month, for the first time ever, U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe exceeded Russia's pipeline deliveries. In the coming months, even if all Russian pipeline exports through Ukraine were cut off, U.S. exports could make up the deficit. But in the unlikely event that Russia cuts off all gas exports to Europe, U.S. exports wouldn't be enough. Europe would have to scramble, using gas from already-thin storage and restarting coal and nuclear facilities to generate electricity. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.15.22)
• Rising oil prices and fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine have created a dilemma for Saudi Arabia: Help the West by pumping more crude to tame the market or stand by a five-year-old oil alliance that is helping Moscow at the expense of Washington. For now, the world's largest crude exporter is sticking with Russia. the Saudis have said they won't pump more than they agreed to last year as part of a deal between OPEC+. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.16.22)
• About 60% of Russia's oil exports go to Europe, according to investment bank Cowen, and another 30% go to China. Russia accounts for about 25% of global trade in natural gas, and 85% of its gas goes to Europe. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.14.22)
• With tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine showing few signs of easing, Germany’s new minister for the economy and climate change, Robert Habeck, has begun to raise an issue that was unthinkable just a year or two ago: looking beyond Russia for the country’s natural gas needs. (The New York Times, 02.14.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• U.S. ownership of Russian equities rose in 2021, in spite of mounting political tensions between the two countries. At end of the year, 58% of the total international holdings in Russian equities belonged to American funds, compared with 53% the previous year and just 41% in 2013. Meanwhile, the disclosed total value of foreign investment in Russian equities is also increasing. International funds held $86.2bn in Russian equities in 4Q21, up from $65.6bn the previous year, according to data from ThomsonONE. The actual value could be about three times higher according to some estimates.
  • Russian financial stocks are among the more popular securities held by American investors. At least 21.8% of equities issued by online financial services group TCS are owned by Americans, who represent the single largest group of investors in the company, according to data from Bloomberg. Moscow Exchange (MOEX) stock is also in line with this trend.
  • Russia’s booming tech stocks are also a hit with US investors. 28.6% of shares in online retail platform OZON are held by American investors, according to Bloomberg, while telecom stocks like MTS are also a major draw.
  • Russia’s signature commodity and metallurgy stocks are also seeing rising demand from the U.S. Over a quarter of the reported shares in aluminum giant RUSAL are also held by investors from North America. (BNE IntelliNews, 02.18.22)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A Mexican researcher has pleaded guilty to acting on behalf of a foreign official to gather information about an unidentified man living in Florida, authorities said Feb. 16 — a case that alarmed national security officials because the target of the researcher’s surveillance effort had provided U.S. officials with information about Russian intelligence work. The Justice Department said Hector Alejandro Cabrera Fuentes acted at the direction of a person he believed was working for the Russian government, taking orders to have an associate lease a condo in a building in the Miami area where he could gather information about the informant. (The Washington Post, 02.16.22)

 

III. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia reported 180,071 new COVID-19 infections and 784 deaths over the last 24 hours. (The Moscow Times, 02.18.22) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
• Russia’s central bank has raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to a five-year high of 9.5 percent. The bank’s decision to raise rates for the eighth time since last March comes against a backdrop of growing tension between the west and Russia over Ukraine. Russia’s gross domestic product is expected to grow between 2 percent and 3 percent this year, and a further 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent next year. (Financial Times, 02.11.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s Navy has launched drills involving 20 warships in the Caspian Sea, the Defense Ministry announced Feb. 17. In addition to 20 warships, the drills will involve several small missile and small artillery ships as well as minesweepers and support vessels, the southern military district said in a statement. (The Moscow Times, 02.17.22)
• In early 2017, Ukrainian forces battling Russia-backed separatists shot down a drone conducting surveillance over Ukraine's eastern flank. The unmanned aircraft‘s engine came from a German company that supplies model-airplane hobbyists. Computer chips for navigation and wireless communication were made by U.S. suppliers. A British company provided a motion-sensing chip. Other parts came from Switzerland and South Korea. (The Washington Post, 02.11.22)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• A Russian court on Feb. 18 sentenced in absentia the brother of imprisoned Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, Oleg, to one year in prison for violating the terms of a suspended sentence. A district court in Moscow "replaced Oleg Navalny's suspended sentence... with jail time," his lawyer Nikos Paraskevov wrote on Twitter. (AFP, 02.18.22)

 

IV. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Increasing prices for grain and fertilizer have cast a light on the EU’s dependence on Russia in the agriculture sector. Any escalation in the frozen conflict in the Donbass could wreak havoc on Europe’s food market. Fertilizer prices are at their highest since the global commodity bubble in 2008, with the cost of nitrogen fertilizers rising by 253% in Europe in 2021. (BNE IntelliNews, 02.15.22)
  • It has now dawned on EU authorities that the union’s agonizing dependence on Russian natural gas will be compounded by Russian companies’ market power over fertilizer. As one Eurocrat said this week, “You do not get a Nobel Prize for seeing this fertilizer situation as a threat to Europe’s food security.” (Financial Times, 02.12.22)
• EuroChem Group has made a binding offer to buy the nitrogen fertilizer and chemical assets of Borealis, now owned by OMV, the Austrian oil and petrochemicals company. As a European fertilizer industry executive pointed out: “This will make EuroChem the second-largest fertilizer company in Europe, after Yara [of Norway].” The home country of EuroChem’s management and the core ownership group are in Russia, which, by the way, just imposed a two-month ban on its own fertilizer exports that ends April 1. (Financial Times, 02.12.22)
• Putin hailed ties between Russia and Brazil on Feb. 16 as he hosted Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for talks at the Kremlin. Bolsonaro snubbed U.S. calls to call off his trip, his first to Russia as Brazil’s leader. Bolsonaro said the two countries “share common values, such as the belief in God and the defense of family.” He also noted that Brazil is interested in small nuclear reactors made by the Russian state energy firm Rosatom. Putin named Brazil Russia’s most important partner in Latin America. (RFE/RL, 02.16.22, The Washington Post, 02.16.22)
• France is dealing with other Russia-related problems in the west African state of Mali, where the ruling military junta has hired the Russian mercenary group Wagner and is pushing out French troops deployed since 2013 to fight against Islamist insurgents in the Sahel. Le Drian dismissed Putin’s assertions that the Kremlin had no knowledge of the Wagner operations. (Financial Times, 02.17.22)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainians raised national flags and played the country's anthem on February 16 to show unity against fears of a Russian invasion that Western powers have said could be imminent. The yellow and blue banner fluttered outside schools, hospitals and many shops to mark "Unity Day," a holiday President Volodymyr Zelenskiy created this week after Russia massed troops near Ukraine's borders. (Reuters, 02.16.22)
• Several thousand Ukrainians rallied in Kyiv on February 12 to show unity amid fears of a Russian invasion, as Ukraine's leader told people not to panic and pushed back against what he said was a glut of bleak war predictions being reported in the media. (Reuters. 02.12.22)
• Germany’s Lufthansa said it was considering a “suspension of air traffic” in Ukraine. Dutch airline KLM said it was cancelling Ukraine flights and would avoid the country’s airspace. Low-cost carrier Wizz Air said that it was monitoring the situation. Ryanair, which also operates flights to Ukraine, declined to comment. Israel said its national carrier El Al would schedule additional flights to bring home its 15,000 citizens in Ukraine. (Financial Times, 02.14.22)
• On Feb. 13 one of Ukraine's main air carriers, SkyUp Airlines, said it was forced to make an unscheduled landing in Moldova and suspended sales for flights this week after its insurers stopped covering aircraft in Ukrainian airspace. (The Wall Street Journal, 02.14.22)
• Ukraine’s government on Feb. 13 approved a “guarantee” fund of $600mn to maintain air service to and from the country, after foreign insurers stopped covering flights, citing security risks. (Financial Times, 02.14.22)
• Biden in his call “did not put his emphasis” on possible U.S. sanctions that could follow if Ukraine was attacked, said Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser. Instead, according to his account, Biden came up with “a whole number of ideas that he thinks take many of Russia’s concerns into account.” (Financial Times, 02.14.22)
• The European parliament yesterday approved €1.2bn EU loan for Ukraine, and the U.S. has also suggested it will offer loan guarantees worth $1bn. The conflict with Russia cost Ukraine $280bn dollars over six years, $40bn annually between 2014 and 2020, according to the Center for Economic and Business Research. (Financial Times, 02.18.22, BNE IntelliNews, 02.14.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Turkmenistan on Feb. 12 announced a snap presidential election for March 12 after autocrat leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said he was ready to step down, with his son expected to succeed him. (The Moscow Times, 02.13.22)
• Afghanistan’s Taliban-led Defense Ministry has established several new military units in three border provinces in the country’s north, northeast and west, deploying an estimated 4,400 additional troops in the region. (RFE/RL, 02.16.22)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• Macron said: “We needed to talk to Russia, even if it’s difficult, very demanding, exhausting . . . because it’s a neighbor, a big one, and it doesn’t intend to move out.” (Financial Times, 02.17.22)