This Week’s Highlights:

• Russia is ready to discuss mutual inspections with the U.S. in order to save the INF Treaty, according to a senior Russian official, Reuters reports. A senior U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal that a confidential proposal was given to the Russians earlier this year that might have saved the INF treaty, to which the Russians didn't respond.
• Russia has told the U.S. that two of its strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons will leave Venezuela on Dec.14, the White House said according to Reuters. However, on Dec. 12, Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper reported that Russia is reviewing plans to deploy strategic bombers full time in Venezuela.
• U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said Dec. 13 that a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin would not be held until Moscow released three Ukrainian navy vessels and their crews. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Dec. 14 rebuffed the call, saying it could not take precedence over Russia's justice system, according to Reuters.
• The U.S. has denounced the "predatory" practices of Russia and China in Africa as it unveiled a refocused Africa strategy that will include an end to "indiscriminate assistance across the entire continent," according to RFE/RL.
• Rosneft has reportedly canceled plans to invest in joint projects worth up to $30 billion with the National Iranian Oil Company over fears of U.S. sanctions, Reuters reports.
• Fifty-five percent of respondents in a new Levada poll said they hold Russian President Vladimir Putin responsible for the nation’s problems, marking a four-year high and a 6 percent increase over the past year, according to The Moscow Times.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• “We must assume that the most fanatical of these [terrorist] groups will gravitate toward weapons of mass destruction,” U.S. President Donald Trump wrote in the introduction to America’s new National Strategy for Countering WMD Terrorism released in December. The strategy, which contains no explicit references to Russia or Eurasia, is designed to greatly reduce the probability that extremist groups and individuals will conduct attacks using weapons of mass destruction. (Russia Matters, 12.14.18)
• Russian nuclear fuel manufacturer TVEL has launched the batch production of mixed uranium-plutonium oxide (MOX) fuel assemblies for the BN-800 fast neutron reactor. (World Nuclear News, 12.13.18)
• Some of the most significant known cases of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials have taken place in the wider Black Sea region. However, most countries in the region have not significantly changed their national nuclear security risk assessments, despite the changes in the wider security environment, according to a new SIPRI paper. (SIPRI, December 2018)
• The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration announced the successful removal of "the last known HEU from Nigeria." The material, "more than 1 kg" of HEU, was supplied to the NIRR-1 research reactor by China. (IPFM, 12.07.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• Rosneft has reportedly canceled its plans to invest in joint projects worth up to $30 billion with the National Iranian Oil Company over fears of U.S. sanctions. (The Moscow Times, 12.13.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• Russia has told the U.S. that two of its strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons will leave Venezuela on Dec. 14, the White House said. However, on Dec. 12, Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper reported that Russia is reviewing plans to deploy strategic bombers full time in Venezuela. (Reuters, 12.12.18, The Moscow Times, 12.12.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump has chosen Gen. Mark Milley to become the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Milley was named as the replacement for Gen. Joseph Dunford. (RFE/RL, 12.08.18)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Russia is ready to discuss mutual inspections with the U.S. in order to save the INF Treaty, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Vladimir Yermakov said Dec. 14. "If the United States really wants to come to some kind of agreement with us, then we need to sit down at the negotiating table in an inter-agency format and agree on everything in detail. We are ready for this," Yermakov said. (Reuters, 12.14.18, Reuters, 12.14.18)
• A senior U.S. administration official said that a confidential proposal was given to the Russians earlier this year that might have saved the INF treaty, to which the Russians didn't respond. (Wall Street Journal, 12.07.18)
• The Pentagon is already funding a Precision Strike Missile, which would have a range just under the INF Treaty limit of 500 kilometers, or 310 miles. Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are now competing for the production contract. (New York Times, 12.10.18)
• On Dec. 6 the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joseph Dunford, raised doubts for the first time that New START would be extended. (New York Times, 12.10.18)

Counter-terrorism:

• Russia's Investigative Committee said on Dec. 13 that seven suspects had been apprehended in and around the Moscow region and the three North Caucasus regions of Chechnya, Daghestan and Ingushetia. They were suspected of sending at least 38 million rubles ($570,000) to Islamic State militants and the Al-Nusra Front since 2010. (RFE/RL, 12.13.18)

Conflict in Syria:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the make-up of a committee meant to draft a new constitution for Syria is nearly complete, with almost all members agreed on. (AP, 12.14.18)
• Russia and China on Dec. 13 abstained from an annual U.N. Security Council vote to extend approval for cross-border humanitarian aid deliveries in Syria because Moscow said the four-year-old authorization was "divorced from reality." (Reuters, 12.13.18)

Cyber security:

• Russia’s state communications regulator Roskomnadzor has threatened to block Google if it does not filter its search results based on Russian law, a day after announcing that it had fined the search engine for non-compliance. (The Moscow Times, 12.12.18)
• While the threat posed by Chinese spies is of long-term strategic significance, according to U.S. officials, Russia's trolls and hackers have sought a more immediate and destructive effect on Western democracies, showing the wide range of effects from cyberattacks. (Wall Street Journal, 12.12.18)
• Rob Joyce, the U.S. National Security Agency's senior adviser on cybersecurity strategy, said Russia, China, North Korea and Iran pose the biggest threat among foreign actors. "It really is those four countries that are outside the norm that the rest of us are living with," he said. (Wall Street Journal, 12.11.18)
• A bill on the need to ensure the autonomous operation of the Russian segment of the Internet if there is no access to foreign servers has been submitted to the State Duma. (RFE/RL, 12.14.18)
• Russian hackers broke into the IT systems of more than 100 military and state institutions in western Ukraine, a statement by Ukraine’s state security service said on Dec. 14. (Reuters, 12.14.18)

Elections interference:

• U.S. President Donald Trump's longtime personal lawyer Michael Cohen was sentenced to three years in prison on Dec. 12 after pleading guilty to tax and bank fraud and campaign finance charges. The sentencing came after he admitted that he lied to Congress about Trump's past business dealings in Russia, as well as his involvement in so-called "hush money" payments to women who claimed they had affairs with Trump. Cohen said Dec. 14 that Trump directed him to buy the silence of two women during the 2016 campaign. (AP. 12.14.18, RFE/RL, 12.12.18)
  • An earlier court filing on Cohen detailed how he spoke to a Russian as early as 2015 who "claimed to be a 'trusted person' in the Russian Federation who could offer the campaign 'political synergy' and 'synergy on a government level,'" although the meeting never took place. (RFE/RL, 12.08.18, RFE/RL, 12.08.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Dec. 11 he was not concerned that he could be impeached and that hush payments made ahead of the 2016 election by his former personal attorney to two women did not violate campaign finance laws. Trump then said on Dec. 13 that he never directed Cohen to violate the law. (Wall Street Journal, 12.13.18, Reuters, 12.11.18)
• Special counsel Robert Mueller's office charged in U.S. District Court in Washington that Paul Manafort made "multiple discernible lies" regarding his contacts with Russian-Ukrainian political consultant Konstantin Kilimnik, violating the terms of a previous plea deal. (RFE/RL, 12.08.18)
• Lawyers for U.S. President Donald Trump's former national security adviser Michael Flynn asked a judge Dec. 11 to spare him prison time, saying he had devoted his career to his country and taken responsibility for an "uncharacteristic error in judgment." The arguments to the judge echoed those of special counsel Robert Mueller's office. (AP, 12.12.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump says special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation has failed to find evidence that he colluded with Russia during his 2016 election campaign. "After two years and millions of pages of documents (and a cost of over $30 million) no collusion!" Trump said in a Dec. 8 tweet. (RFE/RL, 12.08.18)
• In all, Russians interacted with at least 14 Trump associates during the campaign and presidential transition, public records and interviews show. (The Washington Post, 12.09.18)
• Special counsel Robert Mueller's sentencing timeline suggests that the accounts of those cooperating witnesses will appear in a written report, not in court. (The Washington Post, 12.14.18)
• Russia is ready to publish its correspondence with the U.S. on its alleged "interference" in the 2016 elections, a top official at Russia’s Federal Security Service’s (FSB) national cyber security center has said. (The Moscow Times, 12.11.18)
• A court in Ukraine has ruled that officials in the country violated the law by revealing, during the 2016 presidential election in the U.S., details of suspected illegal payments to Paul Manafort. (New York Times, 12.13.18)
• EU leaders called for urgent action to combat fake news on the internet at a summit on Dec. 14, saying more needed to be done to safeguard next year's EU election against disinformation. (Reuters, 12.14.18)

Energy exports:

• The U.S. House of Representatives has condemned the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline, saying the undersea project will boost Russian control over Europe’s energy supplies. Russia is seeking to boost its power in Europe and grip over Ukraine with the proposed Nord Stream 2, Francis Fannon, the U.S. assistant secretary for energy resources at the State Department, said. (RFE/RL, 12.12.18, Reuters, 12.11.18)
• Russia has rejected renewed U.S. and European calls to block the Moscow-backed Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline project. In a resolution adopted on Dec. 12, the European Parliament called for the pipeline to be canceled. (RFE/RL, 12.13.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

• No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Dec. 14 rebuffed a U.S. call to release Ukrainian ships and sailors, saying it could not take precedence over Russia's justice system. U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said Dec. 13 that a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin would not be held until Moscow released the vessels and their crews. (Reuters, 12.14.18)
• Russian woman Maria Butina pleaded guilty in a U.S. court on Dec. 13 to a single conspiracy charge in a deal with prosecutors and admitted to working with a top Russian official to infiltrate a powerful gun rights group and make inroads with American conservative activists and the Republican Party as an agent for Moscow.  Russian officials say Moscow will continue to support Butina, even though it rejects that claim. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Dec. 14 that allegations against Butina were absolutely groundless. Putin said on Dec. 11 it was unclear to him why Butina had been accused of being a Russian agent because his intelligence chiefs had told him they knew nothing about her. (Reuters, 12.12.18, Reuters, 12.14.18, AP, 12.14.18, Reuters, 12.13.18)
• Globally, a median of just 34 percent express a favorable view of Russia, while about a quarter (26 percent) have confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin to do the right thing in world affairs, according to a May-August poll of 25 countries released by Pew on Dec. 6. Of Americans, 64 percent hold an unfavorable view of Russia. A median of roughly four-in-ten (42 percent) believe Russia is playing a more important role in the world today compared with 10 years ago, according to the poll. In the U.S., about half (52 percent) see Moscow’s influence as rising. (Pew Research Center, 12.06.18)
• The U.S. State Department has moved Russia out of a list of countries to which “travel should be reconsidered” in an updated travel advisory published on Dec. 10. (The Moscow Times, 12.11.18)
• U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan is traveling to Central Europe and the Western Balkans to shore up support against what the State Department calls “Russia’s aggression on the region.” (RFE/RL, 12.13.18)
• Leonid Teyf, a North Carolina resident who allegedly laundered part of $150 million in kickbacks related to Russian military contracts, was charged in a plot that authorities say involved an extramarital affair, a murder-for-hire plan, immigration fraud and bribing a public official. (Wall Street Journal, 12.13.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• Russia's budget surplus this year will be close to 3 percent of GDP, the country's economy minister has said, higher than the official forecast thanks to strong oil revenues and conservative spending. (Financial Times, 12.12.18)
• Russia’s central bank unexpectedly increased borrowing costs a quarter-point to 7.75 percent. The increase was the second this year and it signaled it may soon act again as inflation accelerates amid a tax hike and possible new U.S. sanctions. (Bloomberg, 12.14.18)
• Russia plans to hand control of shipping through the Arctic Northern Sea Route to Rosatom. (Financial Times, 12.12.18)
• Both reactors on the Akademik Lomonosov, Russia’s floating nuclear power plant, are now operational. (Bellona, 12.07.18)
• Russia’s metals and mining major Norilsk Nickel plans to invest more than $12 billion in production development over the next five years in order to boost production volumes. (Financial Times, 12.10.18)
• The average monthly pension in Russia is 14,144 rubles ($213), the state-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported Dec. 10, citing statistics from the country’s pension fund. (The Moscow Times, 12.10.18)
• Fifty-five percent of respondents in Levada’s poll published Dec. 13 said they hold Russian President Vladimir Putin responsible for the nation’s problems, including higher costs of living, marking a four-year high and a 6 percent increase over the past year. (The Moscow Times, 12.13.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Dec. 13 making Vladivostok the capital of Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District, replacing the old capital of Khabarovsk. (The Moscow Times, 12.13.18)
• Russia’s Health Ministry is drafting legislation to raise the legal drinking age of strong alcohol from 18 to 21. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.18)
• Russians donate an estimated 340–460 billion rubles ($5.1–$6.9 billion) per year to charities, according to a new study. (The Moscow Times, 12.13.18)
• A group of Russian lawmakers has introduced a package of bills in the State Duma envisaging fines of up to 1 million rubles ($15,000) for spreading false "socially significant" information through the media and on the internet. (RFE/RL, 12.12.18)
• Lyudmila Alexeyeva, a human rights veteran and dissident who challenged the Soviet and Russian regimes for decades, died on Dec. 8 in a Moscow hospital at the age of 91. Alexeyeva was one of the founders of the Moscow Helsinki Group human rights organization and was a stalwart advocate for the release of political prisoners and the establishment of democratic rights in Russia. (The Moscow Times, 12.10.18)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Dec. 11 defended the jailing of 77-year-old veteran activist Lev Ponomaryov over calls to a protest, saying that Russia doesn’t want a repeat of events like the “yellow vest” demonstrations that have rocked France in recent weeks. (The Moscow Times, 12.12.18)
• A nearly 20-year taboo on reporting in the Russian news media about President Vladimir Putin’s personal life has unraveled—just a little—with an interview broadcast on state television with Katerina Tikhonova, who has been described as his daughter. (New York Times, 12.08.18)
• "We will do everything possible to make sure Putin stays in power as long as possible," Konstantin Malofeyev, a politically active businessman, said recently to thunderous applause from hundreds of Russian Orthodox priests and members of the country's top political parties gathered at a conference outside Moscow. They were united by one cause—to return the monarchy to Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 12.14.18)

Defense and aerospace:

• Vice Adm. Igor Kostyukov has been appointed head of the Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Directorate. (Interfax, 12.11.18)
• A new-generation over-the-horizon radar, “Container,” has been deployed in Russia’s province of Mordovia. This radar can chart the flight path of any aircraft target at a distance of about 3,000 kilometers and can simultaneously track over 5,000 airborne objects of different types, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. (The National Interest, 12.08.18)
• A video appeared online on Dec. 10 showing an apparent failure of a missile launched from the Kapustin Yar test site. By the size of the fireball, it seemed like a large missile, probably an ICBM. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces blog, 12.12.18)
• The number of servicemen serving on contract has reached 384,000, according to Russian General Staff Chief Valeriy Gerasimov. (Russian Defense Policy, 12.09.18)
• Two Russian cosmonauts took a spacewalk on Dec. 11 seeking to resolve the mystery of a small hole found in the side of a craft docked at the International Space Station. (Reuters, 12.12.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The number of people incarcerated in Russia has reached a historic low: 467,000 people, according to Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.18)
• Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office recorded a 10 percent increase in bribes in 2018 compared to the previous year. (The Moscow Times, 12.10.18)
• A former Federal Security Service officer has confessed to being part of a criminal group of security agents accused of contract killings, armed robberies and kidnappings in Tyumen. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.18)
• Former Siberian policeman Mikhail Popkov, who is one of Russia's most notorious serial killers, has been given a second life sentence based on evidence that he killed dozens more women than considered in his initial conviction, Interfax reported on Dec. 10. (The Moscow Times, 12.10.18)
• A court in Russia's Urals city of Nizhny Tagil has handed prison terms to three former police officers convicted of torturing a suspect to death. (RFE/RL, 12.10.18)
• Two Russian National Guard servicemen were injured by a grenade explosion while detaining armed suspects at a shopping mall in Ingushetia. (The Moscow Times, 12.13.18)
• Nearly half of Russian women say they are most at risk of violence by family members in the home, according to a new survey published by state-run pollster VTsIOM. (The Moscow Times, 12.11.18)
• Two former science teachers have been charged in St. Petersburg with preparing and dealing large doses of amphetamine in a lab reminiscent to the operation in the “Breaking Bad” hit cable television series. (The Moscow Times, 12.07.18)
• An official at Russia's Rostransnadzor federal transportation watchdog was fired earlier this year after his wife purchased 66 cars for personal use. (The Moscow Times, 12.12.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia has emerged as the world's second-largest arms producer after the U.S., according to a new report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (The Moscow Times, 12.10.18)
• Any allegations that Russia helped whip up anti-government protests in France are slanderous, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Dec. 10. Britain's The Times reported Dec. 8 that hundreds of accounts linked to Russia have "sought to amplify" the protests. (Reuters, 12.10.18, France24, 12.10.18)
• The Czech Security Intelligence Service has rejected President Milos Zeman's accusations that it is giving him "wrong" data about intensification of spying activities in the country by Russia and China. (RFE/RL, 12.07.18)
• Russia has declared a military attaché in the Slovak embassy in Moscow persona non-grata in a tit-for-tat. (The Moscow Times, 12.13.18)
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu briefed Russian President Vladimir Putin on Israel's crackdown last week along its border with Lebanon on tunnels it said were dug by Hezbollah. (The Moscow Times, 12.10.18)

China:

• The U.S. has denounced the "predatory" practices of Russia and China in Africa as it unveiled a refocus of its strategy that will include an end to "indiscriminate assistance across the entire continent." (RFE/RL, 12.14.18)
• Russia's preference is to press on with a space program entwined with the U.S., Dmitri Rogozin, the director of Russia's space agency, said. But if talks fail, Russia can turn to China or India for partnership. (New York Times, 12.11.18)

Ukraine:

• NATO will supply Ukraine's military with secure communication equipment this month, its head Jens Stoltenberg told Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko at a meeting on Dec. 13 called to discuss an escalation of Kiev's conflict with Moscow. The alliance has been "supporting Ukraine to improve its naval capabilities, logistics and cyber defense," Stoltenberg told Poroshenko. (RFE/RL, 12.13.18, Reuters, 12.13.18)
• EU leaders offered Ukraine more aid at a summit on Dec. 13 after Russia seized its ships off Crimea, but calls to punish Moscow with more sanctions went unheeded. The bloc's 28 national leaders did decide to roll over the existing economic sanctions over Crimea's annexation and Russia's subsequent backing for rebels in eastern Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.18)
• Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has signed into law a bill to terminate Ukraine's friendship treaty with Russia. The treaty is due to expire on March 31. On Dec. 6, Ukrainian lawmakers voted not to prolong it beyond that date. (RFE/RL, 12.10.18)
• Most Ukrainians (62 percent) consider Russia an aggressor state toward Ukraine, a poll conducted by Rating has shown. At the same time, only one-third support the decision to declare a state of martial law in ten regions of Ukraine. (Interfax. 12.11.18)
• Ukraine’s border guards have denied entry to 1,020 Russians since the launch of martial law in some regions of the country. (TASS, 12.11.18)
• The Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople will hand over a decree granting independence to the future head of the local Orthodox Church in Ukraine on Jan. 6. (RFE/RL, 12.14.18)
• The leader of the Russian Orthodox Church has called on the pope, the U.N. Secretary-General and other world leaders to help protect Orthodox believers in Ukraine against pressure from local authorities on Moscow-appointed clerics. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.18)
• Retired Russian navy officer Leonid Parkhomenko has been sentenced to 14 years in prison after a military tribunal in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don found him guilty of passing classified documents to Ukrainian intelligence. (RFE/RL, 12.11.18)
• If in the runoff of the presidential elections next year Petro Poroshenko clashes with the leader of the Batkivshchina party, Yulia Timoshenko, the latter will emerge the winner with 23.4 percent, while the incumbent will get 11.8 percent, according to an opinion poll by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology. Tymoshenko was in Washington last week on a rebranding exercise of sorts. (TASS, 12.11.18, Wall Street Journal, 12.08.18)
• A court in Kiev has reinstated Roman Nasirov to the position of head of the State Fiscal Service after he was fired in January following his arrest on suspicion of embezzlement. (RFE/RL, 12.11.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Armenia’s Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s My Step alliance scored a landslide victory in the Dec. 9 parliamentary polls, capturing 70.4 percent of the vote. (RFE/RL, 12.10.18)
• The whereabouts of a Russian soldier arrested in Armenia over the killing of a local woman have been unknown for days. (RFE/RL, 12.14.18)
• The U.S. Justice Department said Turkish-American businessman Kemal Oksuz pleaded guilty to a charge on Dec. 10. Oksuz, a Houston-based businessman, was charged by a U.S. grand jury with lying on congressional disclosure forms regarding the 2013 all-expenses-paid visit to Azerbaijan made by 10 members and 32 staffers of Congress. (RFE/RL, 12.11.18.)
• "If someone wants to break [Belarus] into regions and force us to become a subject of Russia, that will never happen," Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka said.  (RFE/RL, 12.14.18)
• Moldova's Constitutional Court has again suspended President Igor Dodon from performing his duties, amid a dispute over legislation that he has refused to sign into law. (RFE/RL, 12.11.18.)
• The Kyrgyz parliament has approved in first reading a bill that would eliminate immunity for ex-presidents, potentially opening the path for the prosecution of the country’s former leader, Almazbek Atambaev. Additionally, Kyrgyz authorities have arrested former deputy prime minister Duishenbek Zilaliev on corruption charges.  (RFE/RL, 12.14.18, RFE/RL, 12.10.18)
• Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has pardoned 796 prisoners to mark the International Day of Neutrality on Dec. 12. (RFE/RL, 12.12.18)
• A blast caused by an unknown explosive device has killed at least two people in the western Kazakh city of Aqtau. (RFE/RL, 12.12.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.