4 Things to Know

1. The United States and Ukraine reported limited progress this week in narrowing differences over Washington’s proposed plan for Russia‑Ukraine peace. Kyiv signaled readiness to accept an 800,000‑troop cap for Ukrainian armed forces, which Russia reportedly agrees with. However, the sides remained at loggerheads over issues such as Russia’s demand that Ukrainian forces vacate the parts of Donbas they control. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said on Dec. 12 that it was possible that neither side’s armed forces would remain in the parts of Donbas where the U.S. wants to set up a demilitarized zone. Putin’s aide said Russian police forces would be deployed there instead, but Ukrainian presidential adviser Dmytro Litvin said Ukraine has not agreed to a U.S.-backed “buffer zone” in Donbas. Meanwhile, Finnish President Alexander Stubb claimed peace is closer for Ukraine now than at any time early 2022. “We’re quite close” to an agreement, Stubb said on Dec. 9. The Russian public seemed to share Stubb’s desire for peace. A Levada Center survey (November 2025) showed a record 65% now favor moving to peace talks (+4 points since October), while only 26% want to continue fighting (the lowest share on record).
2. Donald Trump signaled his continued openness to a peace deal for Ukraine, saying, that the U.S. could provide security assistance for Ukraine as part of an agreement to end the war, though he voiced frustration with stalled negotiations. He noted Europeans had invited him to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but said that Washington would send a representative only if talks seemed capable of producing “real peace.” Trump argued that Russia holds the military advantage and that Ukraine must “play ball” to reach an agreement, emphasizing that continued fighting only deepens Ukraine’s territorial losses. Trump also criticized Europe for excessive diplomacy and reiterated that the U.S. is no longer providing direct funding for Ukraine’s acquisition of weapons, claiming past aid was mismanaged. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said, “It’s still up in the air whether we believe real peace can be accomplished and we can truly move the ball forward. The president is extremely frustrated with both sides of this war.”¹
3. RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Nov. 11–Dec. 9, 2025) indicates that Russian forces gained 243 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, an increase over the 165 square miles they gained over the previous four-week period (Oct. 14–Nov. 11, 2025), according to the Dec. 10, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past week, Dec. 2–9, 2025, Russia has gained 55 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, an increase from the previous week’s reported gain of 23 square miles. Since Jan. 1, 2025, Russia has gained an average of 176 square miles per month, according to the card. Most recently, Russia claimed on Dec. 11 to have established full control of Siversk, though this claim was contradicted by ISW and DeepState. ISW noted on Dec. 11 that Russia’s claim is premature, while DeepState’s map showed the westernmost part of this Donetsk region city contested as of Dec. 12.
4. This year Ukraine’s partners worldwide have allocated less than $39 billion in military aid, according to a new report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy,  The Wall Street Journal’s editors wrote on Dec. 10. "While annual allocations of foreign military aid to Ukraine averaged roughly EUR 41.6 billion (about USD 48.5 billion) in 2022–2024, only EUR 32.5 billion (about USD 37.9 billion) has been allocated so far in 2025,” according to Kiel Institute researchers. “To reach previous levels, an additional EUR 9.1 billion would need to be allocated by year-end, requiring a monthly allocation rate more than twice as high as in recent months,” according to Kiel researchers, who predict that this year Europe won’t “offset the halt in U.S. support.” The latter would include $400 million in Pentagon aid next year per the current draft of the NDAA-2026.²

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The Trump administration’s Ukraine peace blueprint envisions using $200 billion in frozen Russian assets for U.S.-managed reconstruction and business ventures—including building a U.S.-run data center powered by the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant—while restoring Russian energy flows to Europe and welcoming U.S. investment in Russian oil and rare earths. (Wall Street Journal, 12.10.25)
• The U.S. voted with Russia and a handful of others at the U.N. against a Ukraine-sponsored Chernobyl resolution, citing concerns over “global governance” language despite broad support for Ukraine’s wording. The resolution highlighted the continued risks after Russia’s February drone strike on the site’s protective dome. (Korrespondent.net, 12.12.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia’s ambassador to North Korea has passed away at the age of 70, the Foreign Ministry said Dec. 8, without disclosing the cause of his death. Ambassador Alexander Matsegora was seen in public as recently as last Tuesday, when he met with Russian university students taking Korean language courses in Moscow. (MT/AFP, 12.08.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin met Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian in Ashgabat, highlighting deepening strategic cooperation, rising trade (up 13% last year, 8% in 2025 so far), and key infrastructure projects including the Bushehr nuclear plant and the North-South transport route. Both leaders reaffirmed close diplomatic coordination, including on Iran’s nuclear program and joint positions at the U.N. (Kremlin, 12.12.25)
• Flyers have appeared in the Iranian capital, Tehran, offering lucrative contracts to men who join Russia's war effort in Ukraine. The Russian Embassy in Tehran has said the advertisements -- which offer Iranian men aged 18 to 45 signing bonuses of up to $20,000 and monthly salaries of around $2,000 -- are fake. (RFE/RL, 12.10.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks on Dec. 10 with U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and BlackRock boss Larry Fink about Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction. “In fact, this could be considered the first meeting of the group that will work on a document concerning reconstruction and economic recovery of Ukraine,” the Ukrainian president said in a social media post. (Financial Times, 12.10.25)
• The Trump administration has recently given European governments one‑page appendices outlining its Ukraine peace and reconstruction vision, including plans for U.S. firms to use about $200 billion in frozen Russian assets for projects such as a major data center powered by the Russian‑occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Another appendix sketches a path to reintegrate Russia’s economy through U.S. investment in sectors from rare earths to Arctic oil, restoring energy flows to Europe. European officials fear this would strengthen Russia and question the proposals’ seriousness, with one likening them to Trump’s past Gaza plans and another calling the approach “like Yalta.” (Wall Street Journal, 12.10.25)
• The EU Council has approved a new €2.3 billion tranche for Ukraine after Kyiv met eight key milestones and made additional progress on reforms. Ukraine has now completed 63 of 68 required steps in the EU’s recovery program, which will provide up to €50 billion in support through 2027, with payouts linked to ongoing reforms and investments. (RBC.ua, 12.12.25)
• A British soldier has died in Ukraine after a “tragic accident” while observing a test of new defensive equipment, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defense said on Dec. 9, in the first death of a U.K. soldier in the war. (Financial Times, 12.09.25)
• Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office announced Dec. 8 that it has indicted 41 former and current Ukrainian officials on accusations of committing genocide against ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine beginning in 2014. (MT/AFP, 12.08.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Nov. 11–Dec. 9, 2025) indicates that Russian forces gained 243 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, an increase over the 165 square miles they gained over the previous four-week period (Oct. 14–Nov. 11, 2025), according to the Dec. 10, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past week, Dec. 2–9, 2025, Russia has gained 55 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, an increase from the previous week’s reported gain of 23 square miles. Since Jan. 1, 2025, Russia has gained an average of 176 square miles per month, according to the card. (RM, 12.12.25)
  • Russian forces have gained 0.77 percent of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2025 ISW assesses that Russian forces have seized roughly 4,669 square kilometers and data indicates 391,270 casualties—about 83 casualties per square kilometer. (ISW, 12.09.25)³
  • In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 861 square kilometers (332 square miles), in Ukraine, according to a Dec. 11, 2025, estimate by the Economist. (RM, 12.11.25)
  • As of Dec. 12, 2025, Russian forces occupied 115,871 square kilometers (44,738 square miles), which constituted 19.19% of the Ukrainian territory, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map. (RM, 12.12.25)
• The Russian Armed Forces are carrying out assaults— with varying degrees of success—on nine Ukrainian cities at once. Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Rodynske in the Pokrovsk area; Kostiantynivka, Lyman, and Siversk to the south, north, and east of Kramatorsk; Kupyansk and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region; and Hulyaipole in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region. (Meduza, 12.12.25)
• Russia is continuing its concerted deep strike campaign against Ukrainian energy critical national infrastructure (CNI), almost certainly seeking to cause a humanitarian crisis amongst Ukraine's civilian population over winter. In November 2025, Russia launched approximately 5,400 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against Ukrainian CNI targets, as well as more than 90 missiles from Long Range Aviation aircraft. Russia has launched over 5,000 OWA UAS in each of the past three months. (U.K. MOD X Account, 12.06.25)

Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025

• On Dec. 6, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Yampil and Solodke. (RM, 12.12.25)
• An overnight Russian drone and missile attack that targeted critical infrastructure, including energy sites and railways, triggered heating and water outages for thousands of Ukrainian households, Kyiv said on Saturday. Overnight, Russia launched 653 drones and 51 missiles at Ukraine, Kyiv's air force said on Saturday. A Russian drone strike hit and “burned down the main railway station building in Fastiv,” a city around 70 kilometres (43 miles) southwest of Kyiv, Zelenskyy said. (MT/AFP, 12.06.25)

Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025

• On Dec. 7, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Katerynivka and in Myrnohrad. (RM, 12.12.25)

Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

• On Dec. 8, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces occupied Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, Hnativka, Rih and Novopavlivka, and advanced in Siversk, Myrnohrad and near Pokrovsk. (RM, 12.12.25)
• A military court in a Russian-occupied region of Ukraine sentenced four soldiers on Dec. 8 to prison terms of up to 12 years for the gruesome murder of a self-avowed American Communist from Texas who had spent a decade as a mercenary and propagandist for Moscow. (New York Times, 12.08.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

• On Dec. 9, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced in Siversk, Myrnohrad and near Pokrovsk. (RM, 12.12.25)
• Russian air defense systems destroyed three drones as they were approaching Moscow on Dec. 9 evening. (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• At least 14 people, including one child, were injured in an early morning Ukrainian drone strike on the Volga republic of Chuvashia, local health authorities said Dec. 9. The Astra Telegram channel, citing one eyewitness and one local chat group user, reported that two people were killed in the attack. The Moscow Times was unable to independently verify the report. (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump said Russia is in a stronger military position in its war on Ukraine and chided European leaders for what he called excessive dialog that’s produced scant results in his latest broadside against allies on the continent. “Russia has the upper hand. And they always did,” Trump said in a wide-ranging interview with Politico published on Dec. 9. “They’re much bigger and stronger in that sense.” In his interview with Politico, Trump was also asked if Ukraine has lost the war. His response was: “Well, they’ve lost territory long before I got here. They lost a whole strip of seafront, big seafront. Uh, I mean, you look at the maps. I ... I’ve been here for 10 months. Uh, but you go back 10 months and take a look, they lost that whole strip. It’s now a bigger strip. It’s a wider strip. But they lost a lot of land, and it’s very good land, too, that they lost.” “So sad millions of people are dead, many, many soldiers. You know, last month they [Ukraine] lost 27,000 soldiers,” Trump said. (Politico, 12.09.25, Bloomberg, 12.09.25)
• A Wall Street Journal investigation revealed new details of Ukraine’s covert “Operation Spiderweb,” a bold SBU plot that used prefabricated truck-mounted cabins to launch over 100 drones at four Russian air bases, destroying or damaging dozens of strategic bombers on June 1. The 18-month scheme depended on Ukrainian operatives and a Kyiv diaspora couple embedded in Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 12.09.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

• On Dec. 10, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Serednye, Derylove and Kolodyazi. (RM, 12.12.25)
• Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not yet seized Pokrovsk, but the situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area remains difficult. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Geolocated footage indicates Ukrainian forces are operating along the Donetsk Railway and in northwestern Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian forces continue to infiltrate, assaulting Myrnohrad and interdicting logistics. (ISW, 12.10.25)
• Ukraine carried out yet another attack on a shadow-fleet tanker linked to Russia’s oil trade as. The vessel in question — the Dashan — was in Ukraine’s territorial waters and suffered significant damage from the incident, according to the person familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)
• Russia may be setting conditions to threaten Odesa Oblast from Russian-occupied Transnistria to fix Ukrainian forces in the southwest. GUR sources said on Dec. 10 that the Kremlin is strengthening its presence there by calling up reservists, bringing weapons out of storage and launching drone production, increasing the risk of infiltration into Odesa. Russian drone units in Transnistria would place Odesa City within mid-range strike distance. (ISW, 12.10.25)

Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

• On Dec. 11, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced in Volodymyrivka, Pankivka, Novoekonomichne, near Myrnohrad and Sofiyivka, and that the line of contact at Kapitalna mine has been clarified. (RM, 12.12.25)
• Russia said Dec. 11 its troops had seized full control of Siversk, a Ukrainian city in the eastern Donetsk region where fighting has intensified in recent weeks, though Ukraine denied the key settlement had been lost. Russia's chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov said Moscow's forces had captured Siversk in a report to President Vladimir Putin during a televised meeting with army commanders. The Russian army in Ukraine is "confidently advancing along the entire front," Putin said, thanking the commanders and soldiers "for their combat work." (MT/AFP, 12.11.25)
• Putin held a videoconference meeting on the current situation in the special military operation zone. During it, chief of Russian General Staff Gerasimov claimed that Russian roops “expanded control” in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, caprtured Kupyansk, Kucherovka, Kurilovka, Seversk, Rivne, and areas in Dimitrov, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk, according to Kremlin.ru. Putin emphasized “good dynamics” and the goal of expelling Ukrainian forces from “our territory.” (12.11.25)
  • Russian military bloggers reported the capture of Seversk (Donetsk region) by Russian forces, too, sharing videos from inside the city. However, analysts and maps show ongoing heavy fighting, with Ukrainian troops holding positions along the Bakhmutovka River. Russia’s defense ministry also claims control over Liman (Kharkiv region), but independent sources say the city remains contested. (iStories, 11.12.25)
• Around 300 drones struck Russian regions overnight, targeting chemical plants in Novgorod and Smolensk and disrupting air traffic in Moscow, where over 170 flights were canceled or delayed. Authorities claimed 287 drones were downed, with Moscow’s mayor citing over 30 near the capital. Drone debris damaged apartment blocks and a power station; no casualties were reported. (iStories, 11.12.25)
• Russian forces shot down 287 Ukrainian drones overnight in one of the highest single-night totals since the war began, the Defense Ministry and officials said Dec. 11. Temporary airport closures caused 200 flights to be delayed to and from Moscow, while eyewitness reports claimed two fertilizer plants were targeted in the western Novgorod and Smolensk regions. Of the drones “intercepted and shot down” by Russian air defenses, 32 were headed toward Moscow and 40 more toward the Moscow region, the Defense Ministry said on Telegram. (MT/AFP, 12.11.25)
• Ukraine attacked Lukoil PJSC’s Filanovsky oil field in the Caspian Sea, according to a person familiar the matter, widening the scope of its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure just as Zelenskyy is under U.S. pressure to agree to a peace deal largely on the Kremlin’s terms. (Bloomberg, 12.11.25)

Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

• On Dec. 12, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated Myrne, Radkivka, Kindrashivka and part of Kupiansk. (RM, 12.12.25)
  • Ukraine on Dec. 12 said it had retaken two settlements in the northern Kharkiv region and pushed Russian troops back in Kupiansk, a key railway hub that Russia claimed to have seized last month. "Kindrashivka, Radkivka and their outskirts have been liberated, as well as a number of neighborhoods in northern Kupiansk," the Khartia army corps said on social media. (MT/AFP, 12.12.25)
  • Korrespondent.net claimed Ukrainian forces have encircled over 200 Russian troops in Kupiansk, sealing off ground access and clearing the city’s northwest outskirts. Since September, the coordinated operation has killed 1,027 Russian soldiers and wounded 291. Zelenskyy visited near the front—just over a kilometer from Russian positions—as fighting continues to clear the city. (Korrespondent.net, 12.12.25)
• Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, together with pro-Ukrainian Russian rebels, claim to have destroyed two Russian cargo vessels, Kompozitor Rakhmaninov and Askar-Saridzha, transporting arms across the Caspian Sea near Kalmykia. The ships have not broadcast AIS signals for over 18 days. The operation’s exact date and methods remain undisclosed. (The Moscow Times, 12.12.25)
• Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) claims its special unit destroyed a Russian An-26 transport aircraft and struck two key radar systems—“Nebo-M” and 64N6E—during overnight raids in occupied Crimea. The attack targeted the Kacha airfield, aiming to impair Russian air defense and logistics. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.12.25)
• Russian authorities say seven people, including a child, were injured in Tver (180 km from Moscow) after a Ukrainian drone hit and set fire to an apartment block, forcing 20 residents to evacuate. The attack follows a record night where Russia claims nearly 300 Ukrainian drones were intercepted amid intensified strikes as peace talks stall. (The Moscow Times, 12.12.25)
• Debris from a Ukrainian drone struck an apartment block northwest of Moscow, injuring seven people as it set off a fire, Russian authorities said Dec. 12. Tver interim regional governor Vitaly Korolyov said on Telegram that six adults and a child were injured and about 20 people had to be evacuated from the apartment block in the city of more than 400,000 people. (MT/AFP, 12.12.25)
• Since January 2025, Russia has launched 1,800 missiles and 50,000 drones in 4,500 attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, according to Ukraine’s deputy energy minister Roman Andarak. Despite the daily strikes, Ukraine has completed key repairs and contracted 50% of next year’s gas needs. (Korrespondent.net, 12.12.25) 

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

• America’s  2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) allocates $400 million for Ukraine in 2026 and another $400 million in 2027. It restricts the Pentagon from reducing U.S. forces in Europe below 76,000 for more than 45 days and codifies a requirement that NATO's supreme allied commander be an American officer. (Washington Post, 12.09.25)
• In his interview with Politico, Trump said: “…our country is no longer paying any money [to Ukraine] ever since Biden gave them $350 billion so stupidly.” (Politico, 12.09.25)  

Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

• Europe has failed to provide sufficient military support to Ukraine to make up for the loss of U.S. assistance since President Donald Trump returned to power this year, according to the latest data from the Kiel Institute. Only €32.5 billion ($37.8 billion) in aid has been allocated so far this year, meaning European allies would need to transfer another €9.1 billion to match the annual average since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, according to the Ukraine Support Tracker released on Dec. 10. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)

Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

• The European Union will make a push for a way to finance support Ukraine for the next two years as the bloc’s leaders gather in Brussels on December 18-19. (RFE/RL, 12.12.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The EU has indefinitely frozen €210bn in Russian sovereign assets, aiming to use them as collateral for loans to support Ukraine’s defense as peace talks enter a critical phase. European leaders are backing Ukraine’s push for better terms in the US-led negotiations, while Zelensky ruled out surrendering territory but left open the idea of a demilitarized zone in Donetsk if Russia reciprocates and strong security guarantees are provided. (Financial Times, 12.12.25)
• Russia’s central bank filed suit in Moscow against Euroclear over the freezing of €185bn in Russian sovereign assets, vowing to challenge EU moves to fund a €90bn Ukraine loan by indefinitely immobilizing the reserves. The legal action marks Moscow’s first response as debate intensifies among EU states—amid U.S. opposition—over using Russian funds for Kyiv, with threats of Russian retaliation and fresh seizures looming. (Financial Times, 12.08.25)
• European Union ambassadors on Dec. 10 decided on further sanctions against Russia, with a new package adding several individuals and entities to its sprawling blacklist adopted in response to the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. The bloc focused the measures on five individuals involved in the global oil business in an attempt to hit Russia as it trades below the G7-imposed oil price cap that currently stands at $47.6 per barrel. (RFE/RL, 12.10.25)
• France, Slovakia, Hungary, Belgium and U.K. banks oppose transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Slovakia and Hungary say the move would prolong the war. The EU recently made Russia’s €210bn assets freeze permanent; Russia’s Central Bank is suing Euroclear in Moscow. Commercial banks in France and the U.K. warn of legal risks should Ukraine default on related loans. (iStories, 12.12.25)
• Microchip manufacturers Intel Corp., Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. were accused in a series of lawsuits of failing to keep their technology out of Russian-made weapons used to kill and wound civilians in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)
• Google Russia is targeting Google in France in a bid to recoup €110 million ($128 million), a dividend paid by the Russian arm prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and its ultimate bankruptcy, a lawyer representing Google Russia’s liquidators said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)
• The U.S. extended a sanctions waiver for some Lukoil PJSC transactions until next month as deal discussions over the sale of the firm’s foreign assets picked up. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)
• Insurance prices for vessels trading in the Black Sea have tripled over the past month and are set to keep climbing following recent Ukrainian attacks on ships and ports in the region, insurance brokers say. (Financial Times, 12.07.25)
• U.K. banks have pushed back against plans to use about £8bn in frozen Russian assets they hold, warning that the British government has not offered to indemnify them against potential retaliation by Moscow. (Financial Times, 12.11.25)
• Ukrainian security officials have detained a cargo vessel in the port of Odesa that authorities say is part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Dec. 10. (MT/AFP, 12.10.25)
• A Moscow court has issued in absentia verdicts against the chief prosecutor and eight judges of the International Criminal Court over their indictment of Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, authorities said Dec. 12. Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office said the Moscow City Court found the nine ICC representatives guilty of prosecuting innocent persons, illegal detention and attempted violence against persons who enjoy international protection. (MT/AFP, 12.12.25)
• On Nov. 28, 2025, Russia failed in its attempt to rejoin the U.N.'s International Maritime Organization (IMO) Council, the key global shipping governance body, having lost its seat in 2023. Russia attempted to rejoin the IMO Council despite its continuing shadow fleet strategy. (U.K. MOD X Account, 12.12.25) 
• Russia warned Poland of consequences after Polish authorities detained Russian archaeologist Alexander Butyagin on a Ukrainian warrant, accusing him of illegal excavations at a Crimean site. (New York Times, 12.12.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025

• U.S. and Ukrainian officials met for a third straight day of talks, with no early announcements about any potential breakthroughs, even as Russia and Ukraine conducted air strikes on the opposing side’s territory as the all-out war edged near the four-year mark. On Saturday evening, Zelenskyy wrote on social media that he had “just had a long and substantive phone call” with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. “We covered many aspects and went through key points that could ensure an end to the bloodshed and eliminate the threat of a new Russian full-scale invasion, as well as the risk of Russia failing to honor its promises, as has happened repeatedly in the past,” he added. (RFE/RL, 12.06.25, New York Times, 12.06.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron announced a meeting of the leaders of France, Germany and the U.K. with Zelenskyy in a post on social media in which he condemned the latest strikes by Moscow on energy and rail infrastructure in Ukraine. “Russia is locking itself into an escalatory path and is not seeking peace,” he wrote, adding that “we must continue to exert pressure on Russia to compel it to choose peace.” (Bloomberg, 12.06.25)

Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025

• Trump said he’s disappointed in Zelenskyy’s handling of a U.S. proposal to end the war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion. Trump’s tone on Ukraine contrasted with comments in recent days about President Vladimir Putin’s reaction to the proposal. The U.S. said Dec. 12 its negotiators had agreed with Kyiv on a “framework of security arrangements” and discussed what deterrence capabilities were needed as part of a deal to end the war with Russia. However, there was little indication of a major breakthrough. “We’ve been speaking to President Putin and we’ve been speaking to Ukrainian leaders, including Zelenskyy,” Trump told reporters in Washington on Sunday. “I have to say that I’m a little bit disappointed that President Zelenskyy hasn’t yet read the proposal — that was as of a few hours ago.” (Bloomberg, 12.07.25)

Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

• Zelenskyy said Ukraine will not surrender territory to Russia, rejecting what he described as U.S. pressure for “compromise” on Moscow’s demands and insisting Kyiv has no legal or moral right to cede land. He said negotiations over a U.S.-brokered peace plan remain divided on key issues, particularly the future of Donetsk and Luhansk, where U.S., Russian and Ukrainian visions diverge. Zelenskyy added that sensitive elements of the plan — including security guarantees and control of eastern regions — require further work. He said Kyiv is seeking a separate, robust security‑guarantee agreement from Western allies, especially the United States. (New York Times, 12.08.25, Foreign Policy, 12.09.25, Bloomberg, 12.08.25)
• The leaders of the U.K., France and Germany met in British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Downing Street residence with Zelenskyy on Dec. 8. During the meeting, the European leaders said they supported the U.S. efforts for peace but would continue to support Ukraine while diplomatic efforts were ongoing. (Wall Street Journal, 12.08.25)
  • French President Emmanuel Macron said the meeting was a chance to add European contributions to the U.S. peace proposal, which European leaders initially criticized as rewarding Russia for its invasion of Ukraine with land it hasn’t managed to capture. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that he was “skeptical” of some of the proposals coming out of the U.S. (Wall Street Journal, 12.08.25)
• Trump should make sure any deal with Russia to end its war in Ukraine leads to a lasting peace, said Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen. “I’m a little bit worried now, to be honest, what the next days and weeks will bring,” Valtonen said in an interview on with Bloomberg TV on Dec. 8. “We, just like the Ukrainians, want to have peace as soon as possible, but not at any cost.” While the war isn’t “Trump’s war,” the peace will be “Trump’s peace,” she said. “And I’m sure President Trump is interested in having a lasting peace — and if it’s not just, then it typically wouldn’t last.” (Bloomberg, 12.08.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

• In his interview with Politico, Trump said: “…they [the Ukrainians] have to play ball. If they, uh ... if they don’t read agreements, potential agreements, you know, it’s, uh, not easy with Russia ’cause Russia has the upper ... upper hand. And they always did. They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger in that sense. ... I give the people of Ukraine and the military of Ukraine tremendous credit for the, you know, bravery and for the fighting and all of that. But you know, at some point, size will win, generally.” (Politico, 12.09.25)
• Peace is closer for Ukraine now than at any time since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in early 2022, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said. “We’re quite close” to an agreement, Stubb said at an event in Helsinki on Dec. 9. The negotiations involve three separate documents, he said. The first is a framework document that “as of yesterday’s conversation” between European leaders “stands as a 20-point plan,” Stubb said. “The original 28-point plan included elements of a future European security structure which in my mind were completely unacceptable,” said Stubb, who is known to have a good relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. (Bloomberg, 12.09.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

• Ukraine sent a revised peace plan to Washington as President Donald Trump held a call with European leaders, according to a person familiar, as both sides scramble to keep efforts on track to end Russia’s invasion.⁴ President Trump said he was waiting to see the Ukrainian response, adding: "Some people say it is closer than it has ever been." Trump held a separate discussion with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Dec. 10. That phone call was outlined in statements from the German and U.K. governments and confirmed by the White House. “We discussed Ukraine in pretty strong words, and we’ll see what happens. I mean, we’re waiting to hear answers before we progress,” Trump told reporters at the White House later on Dec. 10. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25, Axios, 10.10.25)
  • In a the call, Trump told the German, French and British leaders that they should be pressing Zelenskyy to accept the terms of a peace plan the U.S. has put on the table, under which Ukraine would accept broad territorial losses and cap the size of its military, according to people involved in the conversation. Trump repeated his public criticism that Zelenskyy hadn’t read the earlier U.S. peace plan and the U.S. president gave little indication he was prepared to revise Washington’s proposed terms. (Wall Street Journal, 12.11.25)
  • Merz has urged Trump not to pursue a Ukraine peace deal “above Europe’s head”, as he offered to host talks with Washington on potential territorial concessions to Russia to secure a ceasefire. (Financial Times, 12.11.25)
• While Ukraine is ready to discuss peace along the front lines, a ceasefire should precede any negotiations, Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal said Dec. 10 at the Aspen Security Forum in Washington. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)
  • “Intensive work on the peace plan is continuing and will continue in the coming days,” according to a readout of the call published by the British government. Leaders “agreed that this was a critical moment — for Ukraine, its people and for shared security across the Euro-Atlantic region,” it said. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)
• The Kremlin once again rejected the Ukrainian-proposed ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes and signaled Russia’s commitment to destroying the Ukrainian power grid. Zelenskyy stated on Dec. 9 that Ukraine is ready to agree to an “energy truce.” Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected Zelenskyy’s offer on Dec. 10, stating Russia is “working towards peace, not a ceasefire.” Dmitriev accused Zelenskyy, the U.K. and EU of trying to “trick” Russia. (ISW, 12.10.25)

Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

• Zelenskyy said Dec. 11 that the Trump administration hopes to reach a "full understanding" over its peace plan by Christmas, but critical gaps remain on the issues. (Axios, 12.11.25, New York Times, 12.11.25)
  • The biggest gap is over territory. Zelenskyy said that under the American vision, the territory in the Donbas that Ukraine still holds would become what the Trump administration calls a “free economic zone” and Russia calls a “demilitarized zone” where no Ukrainian or Russian troops would be present. Zelenskyy also said the U.S. proposal calls on Russia to pull back from "some pockets of our regions," but that in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Russia had said "we stay where we are." The Ukrainian leader said the Americans had left uncertain who would govern the “free economic zone” after a Ukrainian withdrawal. He added that it would be unfair for Ukraine to be forced to leave the Donbas while Russia, which invaded in 2022, could stay. (New York Times, 12.11.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.11.25, Axios, 12.11.25,Financial Times, 12.11.25)
  • Russia insists on maintaining control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, but Ukraine won't accept that, and the U.S. is working on a compromise involving joint management, Zelenskyy said. (Axios, 12.12.25)
  • Zelenskyy also floated the prospect of allowing Ukrainians to vote on whether to hand the Donbas region to Russia. (Bloomberg, 12.11.25)
  • In a post on X on Dec. 11, Zelenskyy said it is “essential that this document on security guarantees provides concrete answers to what concerns Ukrainians the most: what actions partners will take if Russia decides to launch its aggression again.” (Wall Street Journal, 12.11.25)
  • While Zelenskyy said it was clear the U.S. would not invite Ukraine into NATO, he said the U.S. could help clear Ukraine's path to the EU. (Axios, 12.11.25)
  • Zelenskyy suggested the proposed 800,000-troop limit for Ukraine's army—roughly matching its current size—was acceptable to Kyiv. (Axios, 12.11.25)
• Trump said the U.S. would be willing to contribute assistance to Ukraine as part of a security agreement to end the war with Russia, but continued to express frustration with the pace of talks. “Yeah, we would help,” Trump told reporters Dec. 11 in the Oval Office. “We would help with security, because it’s, I think, a necessary factor in getting it done.” Trump also claimed the U.S. has given Ukraine $300–350 billion and now benefits via rare earth supplies and arms sales. (RBC.ua, 12.12.25, Bloomberg, 12.11.25)
  • Trump said Dec. 10 that Europeans had invited him to come to meet with Zelenskyy for talks but that he hadn’t decided whether to go yet. “If we feel like those meetings are worthy of someone on the United States’ time this weekend, then we will send a representative,” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Dec. 11. “It’s still up in the air whether we believe real peace can be accomplished and we can truly move the ball forward. The president is extremely frustrated with both sides of this war.” (Wall Street Journal, 12.11.25)
• Germany is inviting the United States to join a high-stakes meeting in Berlin early next week on a potential Ukraine ceasefire, Merz said Dec. 11 after talks with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Merz said the United States has been asked to participate, but whether it joins will “very much depend” on progress in negotiations “over the weekend” between the E3—the U.K., France and Germany—Ukraine and the U.S. on the underlying documents. (Politico, 12.11.25)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Dec. 11 that Moscow wanted to see a peace plan that included security guarantees for "all sides" and addressed "the root causes of the conflict." Lavrov added that Russia won't accept NATO membership for Ukraine, and had handed the U.S. proposals for "collective security guarantees." He added that he thinks all misunderstandings with the U.S. were resolved Putin's meeting last week with Witkoff and Kushner. (Axios, 12.11.25)

Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

• Russian officials publicly allowed for creating a demilitarized zone in Donbas under a US peace proposal. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said: “It’s quite possible there won’t be either Russian or Ukrainian troops [in Donbas]… but there will be Rosgvardia and our police.” (iStories, 12.12.25)
• However, Ukrainian presidential adviser Dmytro Litvin said Ukraine has not agreed to a U.S.-backed “buffer zone” in Donbas, stressing that any such decision must be made at the highest political level or by a public vote. Kyiv insists both sides’ armies would need to withdraw for a buffer to work, and that reports of Ukrainian consent are incorrect. (Korrespondent.net, 12.12.25)
• US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, previously central to Ukraine peace talks, has been sidelined by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, reportedly due to concerns he was “exerting himself a bit too much.” Driscoll, considered a rising Pentagon star and closely linked to VP JD Vance, had led earlier negotiations and presented Trump’s peace plan to Kyiv last month. His absence from recent talks has fueled reports of a power struggle within the Trump administration, with separate factions shaping US policy toward Ukraine. The White House denies any rift, insisting both Hegseth and Driscoll remain key players. (The Telegraph, 12.12.25)
• Russia is seeking to conclude peace with Ukraine, not just a ceasefire, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. He added that if the proposed referendum in Ukraine on territorial issues is merely a pretext to demand a pause in fighting, "that won't work for Kyiv."
  (Kommersant, 12.12.25)
• According to a Levada Center survey (November 2025): 74% of Russians support their military’s actions in Ukraine (42% “definitely,” 32% “rather”); 17% oppose. A record 65% now favor moving to peace talks (+4 points), while only 26% want to continue fighting (lowest on record). (Levada Center, 12.04.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025

• Finland and Britain on Dec. 6 wrapped up the Northern Axe 25 joint military exercises, one of several early winter drills held by the Northern European nation and attended by NATO allies this year. Northern Axe 25 saw some 3,000 personnel, including 70 British soldiers, testing their readiness for demanding combat at the secluded Vuosanka training ground in Finland’s eastern Kainuu region. Just 70 kilometers west lies Russia’s republic of Karelia. (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)

Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

• Moscow has ramped up covert operations in Mexico, with spies meeting handlers in its bustling capital and seaside resorts, U.S. officials say. (New York Times, 12.08.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

• In his interview with Politico, Trump said: “… long before Putin, uh, it was an understanding that Ukraine would not be going into NATO. This was long before Putin, in all fairness. And now they pushed ... you know, when, uh, Zelenskyy first went in and first met Putin, he said I want two things. I want Crimea back and we’re gonna be a member of NATO. He didn’t say it in a very nice way either.” (Politico, 12.09.25)
• In his interview with Politico, Trump said: “Obama forced them [Ukraine] to give up Crimea. … from the standpoint of beauty, weather, everything, Crimea is the warmest. It’s just got such great potential. And Obama forced them ...Obama did this. … Obama gave away ... he made them give it away.” (Politico, 12.09.25)
• South Korea deployed military aircraft after seven Russian warplanes and two Chinese aircraft entered an air identification zone maintained by Seoul, escalating tensions in a region already strained by an ongoing diplomatic rift between Beijing and Tokyo. The planes entered and exited the air zone, known as KADIZ, above waters off the Korean peninsula’s eastern and southern coasts on Dec. 9 and did not violate South Korea’s territorial air space, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said. “Our military detected the Chinese and Russian aircraft before they entered KADIZ and deployed Air Force fighter jets to take tactical measures in preparation for any contingencies,” the JCS said in a statement. The air zone is an area where aircraft are supposed to identify themselves as they approach. (Bloomberg, 12.09.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

• The U.S. is reportedly considering forming a new “Core 5” alliance including Russia, China, India, Japan and the U.S. as an alternative to the G7, Politico reports. The idea, discussed in a draft National Security Strategy, would shift focus toward great-power cooperation and spheres of influence, sidelining Europe and aiming for strategic stability with Russia. (TASS/Politico, 12.10.25)
• Lavrov claimed on Dec. 10 that Russia does not intend to go to war with Europe but will respond to “any hostile steps,” including European contingents in Ukraine and seizure of frozen assets. The Kremlin is likely trying to undermine efforts to secure meaningful guarantees against renewed aggression. (ISW, 12.10.25)

Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

• NATO chief Mark Rutte warned that members of the military alliance must treat the threat posed by Moscow more urgently as they may be "Russia's next target." In one of his starkest statements to date, Rutte said in a keynote address in Berlin on December 11 that NATO's 32 members need to step up defense effort to prevent a war with Russia that could be "on the scale of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured. Rutte said Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. Rutte said only President Trump might bring Putin to the table, while Trump’s team pressures Kyiv to accept concessions under a peace plan. (RFE/RL, 12.11.2, Axios, 12.11.25)
• On Dec. 11, Lavrov effectively rejected key points of the U.S.-proposed 28-point peace plan, including freezing front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, IAEA control of the Zaporizhzhia plant, Ukraine’s right to sovereignty, and Western security guarantees for Kyiv. Lavrov insisted Russia will not cede annexed territories and repeated demands for Ukraine’s neutrality, rollback of NATO, and Russian-style “security guarantees.” The Kremlin signaled ongoing resistance to essential Ukrainian and Western requirements for any peace deal. (ISW, 12.11.25) 

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russian and Chinese bombers conducted a joint patrol near Japan and South Korea, with Tokyo denouncing the eight-hour flight as a show of force amid tense relations over Taiwan. Japan and South Korea scrambled jets in response, while the U.S. reaffirmed its security commitments to Japan. (Wall Street Journal, 12.12.25)
• Lavrov said Moscow’s close partnership with China is a major stabilizing force in global affairs and a key element in building a multipolar world. Lavrov highlighted the importance of “leaders’ diplomacy” and recent joint commemorations, noting that Russia and China “played a decisive role” in WWII and remain aligned on strategic issues today. (TASS, 10.12.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Trump said the U.S., Russia and China are all interested in negotiating denuclearization, telling reporters that the topic is being discussed directly among the three powers. "One of the things I talked to China about is the denuclearization of weapons," he said, taking reporters’ questions at the White House. "I'm talking about nuclear weapons. I've spoken to China about that. I've spoken to Russia about that. And I think it would be something that we would want to do, and they would like to do, and I think Russia would like to." (TASS, 12.11.25)
• It remains unclear if Russia conducted the planned Bulava missile test launch from the submarine Knyaz Pozharsky in June 2025. NOTAM flight warnings were issued for the Barents Sea–Kura range but no launch was reported or confirmed, and the notifications simply expired—suggesting a possible scrub or secrecy, though precedent exists for unreported successful tests. (Russianforces.org, 12.07.25) 

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• The Justice Department charged a Ukrainian woman with hacking water plants and food production facilities, and accused the Russian government of directly supporting cyberattacks on U.S. and global critical infrastructure. The U.S. alleged the Russian government and military provided financial and other support to so-called hacktivist groups that Dubranova supported, acting to promote Russia’s geopolitical interests. (Wall Street Journal, 12.10.25)
• Germany’s foreign ministry summoned the Russian ambassador in Berlin and said it made it clear there’ll be consequences for hybrid attacks backed by the government in Moscow aimed at undermining democracy. Germany said Dec. 12 it had identified two Russian cyber operations targeting air traffic control and February's general election. "We can now clearly attribute the cyberattack against German Air Safety in August 2024 to the hacker collective APT28, also known as Fancy Bear," a Foreign Ministry spokesman said. "Second, we can now state definitively that Russia, through the Storm 1516 campaign, sought to influence and destabilize the most recent federal election," he added at a press conference. (MT/AFP, 12.12.25, Bloomberg, 12.12.25)⁵
• Anonymous hackers have breached a key developer of Russia’s digital military draft system, the head of the draft-dodging nonprofit Idite Lesom said Dec. 11. “For the next few months, the system (which holds 30 million records) will not be able to send people off to kill or die,” Grigory Sverdlin wrote on Facebook. Sverdlin said his group received a large set of documents from the hackers, including the source code, technical documentation and internal communications from the developer, Russia’s software and digital solutions provider Micord. (MT/AFP, 12.11.25)
• Ukrainian and Belarusian hacker groups orchestrated a July cyberattack that crippled Russia’s flagship airline Aeroflot, causing over 100 flight disruptions, at least $3.3 million in losses, and weeks of chaos. The hack exposed Aeroflot’s links to Russian military transport and revealed deep flaws in its cybersecurity. Stolen internal data, flight records, and management materials were leaked online. (Meduza, 12.12.25)
• A new Cambridge index reveals Russia, the U.S., and U.K. are the world’s cheapest countries for creating fake online accounts, with SMS verifications costing as little as $0.08 in Russia and $0.10 in the U.K. (Financial Times, 12.12.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025

• Ukraine said it hit Rosneft PJSC’s Ryazan oil refinery while Russian military conducted a massive attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Military forces struck the oil-processing facility in Russia’s Ryazan region overnight, Ukraine’s General Staff said on Telegram. The Ryazan refinery, located 120 miles (193 kilometers) southeast of Moscow, is one of the largest in the country with a design capacity of about 340,000 barrels of crude a day — and has been attacked several times in recent months. It wasn’t possible to independently verify the claims by Kyiv. Rosneft didn’t respond to a request for comment sent on Saturday outside normal business hours. (Bloomberg, 12.06.25)

Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

• A Russian liquefied natural gas export facility delivered its first shipment to China since being sanctioned by the U.S. in January, the latest sign of increased energy cooperation between Beijing and Moscow. The Valera vessel arrived at the Beihai import terminal in southern China on Dec. 8, ship data compiled by Bloomberg shows. (Bloomberg, 12.08.25)
• A Dutch court has frozen the assets of TurkStream operator South Stream Transport as part of a bid by Ukrainian businesses to recover losses stemming from Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, the Vedomosti newspaper reported Dec. 8. (MT/AFP, 12.08.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

• Russia’s crude oil output last month was well below its OPEC+ quota, as the country struggled to find buyers for its sanctioned barrels and Ukrainian drone attacks hampered refineries. An average 9.43 million barrels a day were pumped in November, according to people with knowledge of the data, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. While that was 19,000 barrels a day above the October level, it lagged the nation’s November target by more than 100,000 barrels a day, Bloomberg calculations show. (Bloomberg, 12.09.25)
• Germany plans to tweak the system that controls the local assets of Rosneft PJSC to ensure it is complying with the tougher U.S. sanctions imposed on the Russian oil company last month. (Bloomberg, 12.09.25)
• Russia is loading its oil onto tankers at an unprecedented pace — but those shipments are stacking up at sea, weighing on prices and undermining Moscow’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. While the country’s crude exports rose strongly for a second week, offloading the cargoes is proving a major challenge. That, combined with longer voyages as ships divert to China from India, has driven a 28% jump in Russian supplies at sea since the end of August. The resulting 2 1/2-year high for the glut of Russia’s oil on water is one of several factors depressing prices and curbing the revenues that the Kremlin needs to refill its war chest. (Bloomberg, 12.09.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

• Kazakhstan lost 480,000 tons of oil output after a November drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, but authorities say the 2025 production target of 96.2 million tons will be met by ramping up shipments once repairs are complete. The CPC handles over 80% of Kazakh oil exports. (Interfax, 11.12.25)
• Shell Plc is planning to dissolve a partnership with Russia’s Rosneft PJSC through which the two oil giants jointly own a stake in a pipeline from Kazakhstan. Putin this week authorized the two producers to make transactions that may lead to “establishment, modification, termination, or encumbrance” of property rights in their Caspian venture. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)

Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

• Recent attacks on the key export terminal for Kazakh crude have wiped out more than a 10th of the country’s daily oil output. Combined production losses since Nov. 29, when the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s shipping infrastructure on Russia’s Black Sea coast was damaged by Ukrainian attacks, amount to 480,000 tons, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov told reporters in Astana, according to Interfax. (Bloomberg, 12.11.25)

Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

• Russian oil exports in November were the lowest in recent years as western sanctions and a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted tankers and export terminals. Analysts warn that if the pressure persists. Russian oil product exports totaled about 2mn barrels per day in November, 21% below the 2016-2024 average for the month, according to Vortexa, the energy data provider. The month-on-month fall was driven first by U.S. and U.K. sanctions announced in October on Lukoil and Rosneft, Russia’s two largest oil companies, and then exacerbated by a series of successful Ukrainian attacks on export infrastructure. (Financial Times, 12.09.25)
  • Former Trump adviser Bryan Lanza will advise LUKOIL in negotiations with U.S. authorities and investment bank Xtellus regarding the sale of the company’s overseas assets. Analysts consider the bank’s proposal to transfer LUKOIL’s foreign assets to its American shareholders to be the most likely and acceptable option for the company under current circumstances. (Kommersant, 12.12.25)
• OPEC reported Russian and Central Asian oil exports fell 7% in October to 6.6 million bpd compared to September. Exports via key Russian ports and pipelines dropped, but shipments to China via the ESPO pipeline rose 9%. Product exports also fell 5% month-on-month and are down 9% compared to a year ago. (Wall Street Journal, 12.12.25)
• Russia reportedly exported 5,000 tons of diesel fuel by rail for the first time to Afghanistan via the semi-built Khaf-Herat railway in the first week of December, 2025,” Burna-Asefi writes. (RUSI, 12.12.25) 

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• A secret U.S. blueprint for rebuilding Ukraine and reintegrating Russia into the global economy has sparked sharp tensions with Europe. Documents circulated by the Trump administration propose tapping $200 billion in frozen Russian assets for U.S.-led projects in Ukraine—including a vast data center powered by the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant—and restoring U.S. investment in Russian energy. (WSJ, 12.10.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russia has welcomed changes in the U.S. National Security Strategy, saying the adjustments that marked a radical departure from Washington's previous policy were "largely consistent" with Moscow's vision. Commenting on the new U.S. strategy, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the current U.S. administration was "fundamentally different from the previous ones." "The adjustments we're seeing, I would say, are largely consistent with our vision," Peskov said in an interview with state TV station Rossia aired Sunday. (MT/AFP, 12.07.25)
• The Trump administration joined Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran to block the U.N.’s call to phase out fossil fuels and promote clean energy, objecting to key language in a major environment report. For the first time, no “summary for policymakers” was issued, undermining global action on climate change. Authors say the U.S. exerted decisive influence despite skipping negotiations in person. (New York Times, 12.11.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia reported the steepest drop in annual inflation so far this year, data from the state statistics agency showed Dec. 10, as high interest rates cool off the war economy. According to figures published by statistics agency Rosstat, the annual inflation in November dropped to 6.6% compared to 7.7% a month prior. Last month, Rosstat said the country's economic growth was close to zero in the third quarter, while the Central Bank expected to keep interest rates higher for longer over the stubborn inflation rate. (MT/AFP, 12.10.25)
• A new assessment by a Western intelligence agency, reviewed by the Wall Street Journal, said that Russia has technically been in recession for six months and that the challenges of running its war economy while trying to control prices are presenting a systemic risk to its banking sector. (Wall Street Journal, 12.10.25)
• Putin on Dec. 8 added more supporters of the war in Ukraine to the presidential Human Rights Council (HRC) ahead of his meeting with the consultative body this week. (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• Russia’s Supreme Court on Dec. 9 formally removed the European Convention on Human Rights and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) from its legal framework. The move follows Russia’s withdrawal from the Council of Europe and ECHR’s jurisdiction in 2022 after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• Russia’s lower-house State Duma passed a bill on Dec. 9 granting the state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring access to detailed information about Russians’ financial transactions. The move is intended to improve Russia’s ability to track suspicious financial activity more quickly, making it easier to identify potential money laundering or terrorism financing activities. Critics argued that it could expand financial surveillance and restrict citizens' financial freedom, while others warned that it might increase the risk of unjustified account freezes. (MT/AFP, 12.10.25)
• A new bill in Russia’s State Duma seeks to create a registry of “politically exiled” Russians, banning those listed from marrying, changing names, or obtaining new documents at consulates abroad if they’re convicted of offenses like “discrediting” the army. Existing rights—such as legal aid, passport renewal, and document processing—would also be revoked. Humanitarian benefits are proposed for dependent relatives. If passed, the law takes effect March 1, 2026. (iStories, 11.12.25)
• Russia’s lower-house State Duma passed a bill on Dec. 10 lowering the age for taking an obligatory oath of allegiance to acquire Russian citizenship to 14. Since the oath was introduced in 2017, new citizens have been required to pledge respect for Russia’s culture, history and tradition. (MT/AFP, 12.10.25)
• Russian soldiers returning from the war in Ukraine have killed or injured more than 1,000 people inside Russia since the invasion began nearly four years ago, according to a review of court rulings by the exiled news outlet Vyorstka published Dec. 9. At least 551 people died in incidents involving veterans of the so-called “special military operation,” Vyorstka reported. More than half of those killed, 163 people, died at the hands of former prisoners who had fought in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• A plane carrying Russian citizens deported from the U.S. touched down in Moscow on Dec. 9 amid fears that some on board might face unjust imprisonment. Dmitry Valuev, president of U.S. diaspora organization Russian America for Democracy in Russia, said some of the passengers held anti-government views that could make them a target for political persecution. The exiled Russian outlet Mediazona cited a relative of one passenger as saying that there were 64 passengers on the plane. (MT/AFP, 12.10.25)
• Pravfond -- an abbreviation of the Foundation for the Support and Protection of the Rights of Compatriots Living Abroad – states its goal is to provide legal and other support to Russians abroad when their "rights, freedoms, and legitimate interests" are violated. However, a broader OCCRP investigation concluded that it works with intelligence operatives, finances Russian propaganda, and builds channels of Kremlin influence. An agreement reviewed by Schemes indicated that Pravfond was to be funded for at least several years by the Russian Foreign Ministry. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is chairman of its board of trustees. (RFE/RL, 12.07.25)
• Russia’s Supreme Court on Dec. 8 designated the Congress of People’s Deputies, a Poland-based political movement led by exiled former State Duma lawmaker Ilya Ponomaryov, as a terrorist organization. The Congress of People’s Deputies takes its name from the last Soviet parliament and seeks to form a body of former Russian politicians in exile. Organizers say the group aims to position itself as a potential transitional government should President Vladimir Putin be removed from power. (MT/AFP, 12.08.25)
• The Russian government has unveiled a new package of digital security measures that would sharply restrict incoming phone calls from outside the country. Officials have claimed such steps are needed to reduce large-scale fraud schemes. However, critics say the new proposals are aimed at cutting off access to independent sources of information as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine nears its fourth anniversary. (RFE/RL, 12.10.25)
• Children in Russia have flooded the Kremlin with complaints about authorities banning the Roblox gaming platform, Putin’s spokesman said Dec. 9. On Dec. 3, Russian media regulator Roskomnadzor confirmed it had blocked access to U.S.-owned Roblox, claiming that it distributes extremist materials and promotes “LGBT propaganda.” (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• A court in Russia’s Sverdlovsk region has fined the country’s first person convicted of searching for extremist materials online by less than $40, the independent news website Mediazona reported Dec. 10. Sergei Glukhikh, 20, was arrested in September. A police officer involved in the case told the judge that an FSB officer noticed Glukhikh searching for extremist content while riding next to him on the bus, according to the Russian news outlet Daily Storm. Glukhikh was initially accused of looking up information about Ukraine’s Azov Brigade and the Russian Volunteer Corps, but the judge sent it back for revision due to a mix-up involving Russia’s multiple databases of extremist materials. (MT/AFP, 12.10.25)
• Authorities in the southwestern Kursk region detained and hours later released one of the displaced residents who protested the end of state support payments, media reported Dec. 9. According to Pepel Kursk, Alyona Liskova was among 200 people who gathered Dec. 8 to urge local officials to continue monthly payments of 65,000 rubles ($800) as compensation for damage to their homes during Ukraine’s invasion. On Saturday, Kursk region Governor Alexander Khinshtein and First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said funds previously used for those payments would instead be redirected toward broader recovery and development efforts starting in January. (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• The last private hospital that offers abortions in Siberia’s republic of Altai must give up its license by the end of 2025, regional head Andrei Turchak said Dec. 9, amid state efforts to reverse a dramatic decline in birth rates across Russia. (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• As in previous years, Russia was considered one of the worst places for journalists, according to media freedom watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF), ranking only behind China in the number of reporters it has incarcerated, with 48 journalists in detention. Russia, however, stands out not only for its numbers but for the increasing severity of its pressure on the press. (RFE/RL, 12.10.25)
• The Levada Center’s recent polling shows only 16% of Russians believe mass protests over falling living standards are possible in their area, but 17% say they’re personally ready to join such protests—a 4-point rise since December 2024. (Levada Center, 12.11.25)
• Levada Center polling shows inflation remains Russia’s top problem (59% cite it), followed by the war/western tensions (31%), rising pension age (30%), and housing (29%). Corruption (28%), migration (25%), and lack of healthcare (24%) also worry many; 21% point to widespread poverty and 19% to terrorism as major concerns. Economic and social issues cause more anxiety than other topics. (Levada Center, 12.09.25) 

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin is very likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment in 2026 by mobilizing elements of Russia’s strategic reserve. Putin signed a decree on Dec. 8 authorizing the compulsory call-up of inactive reservists who will undergo compulsory “military assemblies,” allowing the Kremlin to covertly mobilize members of its strategic inactive reserve. (ISW, 12.09.25)
• Russia has practically achieved its military recruitment targets for this year set out by Putin after more than 400,000 people signed contracts, according to the deputy chairman of the country’s Security Council. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)
• Russian military spending reached a record 11.9 trillion rubles in January–September 2025—up 30% from 2024 and nearly four times the 2021 pre-war level. 59% of this year’s defense budget is classified. War now consumes 44% of tax income and 39% of all federal spending. Total war costs since 2022 exceed 42 trillion rubles ($542bn). (iStories, 11.12.25)
• Damage to the Russian-operated Baikonur Cosmodrome rocket launchpad in Kazakhstan has taken the site out of commission, raising concerns over how the International Space Station could be affected. The Baikonur complex is Earth's main blastoff site for crew and cargo flights bound for the ISS and one expert says estimates for needed repair time range from an "optimistic six months" to a "pessimistic two years." (RFE/RL, 12.09.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has uncovered a large-scale migrant legalization scheme involving the forgery of employment contracts for more than 53,000 foreigners in Moscow and its environs, Interfax reported Dec. 10. Twelve Russian citizens were placed in pre-trial detention on charges of organizing illegal migration. (MT/AFP, 12.10.25)
• Russia on Dec. 9 said there were no survivors in a military plane crash east of Moscow, with state media reporting earlier there were seven people onboard. "On December 9, 2025, during a test flight, an AN-22 aircraft crashed near the village of Ivankovo in the Ivanovo region," the committee said. "All crew members onboard were killed." (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• Aishat Baimuradova, a 23-year-old Chechen woman found murdered in Armenia after fleeing abuse, was reportedly related to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. Human rights advocates say Baimuradova endured severe violence from her family, including alleged beatings and rape, before escaping to Yerevan, where she was found dead in October. (Meduza, 12.12.25)

• A man and his eight-year-old daughter were killed in an explosion during testing at the Perm National Research Polytechnic University in the Russian city of Perm, the university and officials said Dec. 11. Investigators described it as “hydraulic stand depressurization” at the university lab. The victims were identified as the head of a company that manufactures the tested equipment and his underage daughter. (MT/AFP, 12.11.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolas Maduro, expressing solidarity amid growing external pressure, according to the Kremlin. The leaders of the two oil-producing nations discussed the development of bilateral ties as part of a strategic cooperation treaty, the Kremlin said in a statement Dec. 11. The sides confirmed their commitment to joint projects in trade, the economy, energy and other areas. (Bloomberg, 12.11.25)
• India is considering expanding joint defense ventures with Russia as it reassesses its arms procurement strategy, Reuters reported Dec. 9, citing three sources familiar with the matter. A delegation of Indian defense-industry officials visited Moscow on Oct. 29-30, the first such trip since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported. (MT/AFP, 12.09.25)
• A cohort of top former Russian foreign intelligence operatives have mounted an effort to expand Russia’s influence into India’s cybersecurity and information technology sectors, according to documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post. The efforts are led by Andrei Bezrukov, the Russian spy whose double life in Boston as business consultant Donald Heathfield became the inspiration for the TV show “The Americans.” (The Washington Post, 12.05.25)
• The Kremlin has threatened Poland over the arrest of a Russian archaeologist on a Ukrainian warrant, saying the act “will not go unpunished.” The archaeologist, Alexander Butyagin, an employee of Russia’s State Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg, oversees archaeological research into an ancient Greek site on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014. (New York Times, 12.11.25)
• A Spanish court has indefinitely suspended the investigation into the killing of a Russian military pilot who defected to Ukraine, Spain’s judicial authority said Dec. 10. The case was halted due to the absence of suspects, Spain’s judicial authority said, noting that police had been unable to identify either the perpetrators or those who ordered the killing. (MT/AFP, 12.11.25)
• A state radio presenter accused by prosecutors of organizing the recruitment of South Africans to fight for Russia against Ukraine was granted bail on Dec. 8, alongside four co-accused after appearing in a court near Johannesburg. Nonkululeko Mantula, who works for the South African Broadcasting Corp., “facilitated the travel and recruitment of her co-accused into the Russian Federation military,” the National Prosecuting Authority said in a statement after the court hearing. The state didn’t oppose bail. (Bloomberg, 12.08.25)
• The IOC said youth athletes with Russian or Belarusian passports “should be allowed to compete under their national flag and anthem,” easing restrictions imposed after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but Russian athletes at the Milan Cortina Games are expected to compete as neutral competitors. The IOC maintained that Russia should not host international sports events and kept restrictions on government officials. (Politico, 12.11.25)

Ukraine:

• Zelenskyy said he was ready to hold elections in his war-torn country if the United States and other allies can provide the security necessary to ensure the vote can be held safely. In a shift from previous statements, Zelenskyy told reporters on December 9 that he would push parliament to draft legislation allowing for elections during martial law. A vote could follow in 60 to 90 days once there are security guarantees in place to make sure voting would be safe for Ukrainians. "I'm asking now, and stating this openly, for the U.S., perhaps with our European partners, to help me ensure the security needed to hold elections," Zelenskyy said. "I personally have the will and readiness for this," he said. (RFE/RL, 12.09.25)
  • The Kremlin rejects Ukraine holding early elections after a peace deal, as well as reliable Western security guarantees. Russian officials insist on full control over Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and show no interest in peace plans freezing current frontlines. Russia continues to claim the seizure of Siversk as part of a narrative portraying Ukrainian collapse, but this is unconfirmed; Ukrainian officials say fighting continues and Russian advances are exaggerated for propaganda. (ISW, 12.11.25)
  • Earlier, on Dec. 9, a Kremlin official suggested that Russia may try to renege on any future peace agreement due to the Ukrainian government’s alleged “illegitimacy.” Leonid Slutsky claimed that Ukraine must hold elections to “legitimize” the government and said Russia must be “absolutely certain” no one can challenge the authority of Ukrainian signatories. (ISW, 12.09.25)
  • Zelenskyy says he held a "substantive discussion" with members of Ukraine's parliament on the possibility of holding elections. Addressing Ukrainians in a nightly video on Dec. 10, Zelenskyy said strong security guarantees from Kyiv's allies -- especially Washington -- are needed to hold a vote. (RFE/RL, 12.11.25)
• In his interview with Politico, Trump said: “Yeah, I think it’s time. I think it’s an important time to hold an election. They’re using war not to hold an election, but, uh, I would think the Ukrainian people would ... should have that choice. And maybe Zelenskyy would win. I don’t know who would win. But they haven't had an election in a long time. You know, they talk about a democracy, but it gets to a point where it’s not a democracy anymore.” (Politico, 12.09.25)
• A new draft peace plan proposes Ukraine join the EU by January 1, 2027, a rapid timeline backed by Brussels that would overhaul the bloc’s enlargement process. The plan—part of talks pushed by the Trump administration—faces skepticism given Ukraine’s incomplete reforms and Russia’s rejection of any deal short of full Donbas control. U.S. backing might pressure EU holdouts on accession, but unanimity among the 27 members is still required. (Financial Times, 12.12.25)
• Secret meetings between Ukraine’s top peace negotiator and FBI leaders have injected new uncertainty into the high-stakes talks to end the war there, according to diplomats and officials familiar with the matter. Umerov met Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, in Miami to discuss a settlement, while also holding closed-door meetings with FBI Director Kash Patel and Deputy Director Dan Bongino. Officials speculate the discussions may involve seeking amnesty for Ukrainian corruption allegations or pressuring Kyiv to accept a deal that includes territorial concessions. (Washington Post, 12.12.25)
• Ukraine and the European Union have agreed on a series of reforms Kyiv must undertake to bolster the rule of law and keep its bid to join the 27-member bloc on track, officials said. The pact comes weeks after the largest corruption scandal to hit Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in early 2022. The 10 points agreed “all focus on strengthening rule of law, fighting corruption and building strong, accountable democratic institutions in Ukraine.” (Politico, 12.11.25)
• Ukraine left interest rates unchanged amid mounting uncertainty over financial support from international allies for Kyiv’s defense against the Russian invasion. The National Bank of Ukraine kept the main rate at 15.5% for a sixth meeting, it said in a statement on Dec. 11. (Bloomberg, 12.11.25)
• Ukraine has won the backing of a key group of investors for a restructuring of $2.6bn in growth-linked debts which Kyiv needs to shore up financing of its war effort against Russia’s invasion. Ukraine’s finance ministry said on Dec. 9 that a committee of holders of its so-called GDP warrants would accept an offer to swap them into new bonds after it finalised insurance against the risk of a further restructuring. (Financial Times, 12.09.25)
• BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Larry Fink is back in the conversation around rebuilding Ukraine — this time with the Trump administration. Fink’s role in talks on Ukraine’s future became public on Dec. 10 when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent out a social media post saying he had joined Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jared Kushner for discussions around rebuilding the country’s economy. “In fact, this could be considered the first meeting of the group that will work on a document concerning reconstruction and economic recovery of Ukraine,” Zelenskyy wrote. (Bloomberg, 12.10.25)
• Ukraine's government has no active candidates for the vacant position of energy minister, two sources familiar with the process said, underlining how a corruption scandal is complicating efforts to fill key posts at a critical time. More than four weeks after Svitlana Hrynchuk and German Galushchenko were dismissed as energy and justice ministers respectively, their replacements have not yet been found, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this week. (Reuters, 12.05.25)
• During the interview with the candidate for the head of the State Judicial Administration, Viktor Koshchynets, the commission raised the issue of discrepancies in the financial status of his parents. According to the commission’s data, the official income of the parents over 20 years amounted to 2.3 million UAH. This amount does not cover their actual expenses: the construction of a house for 1.2 million UAH (where the candidate resides), the purchase of a car, and years of living costs. (Antikor, 12.12.25)
• Iryna Mudra, who is being considered for the position of Minister of Justice, flaunts clothing and jewelry with an estimated value of over $70,000. This is reported by media citing calculations by the tabloid Harley Quinn, which analyzed about a dozen of her public appearances… In the declarations for 2022–2024, most of these valuables are not listed. Mudra’s salary for 2024 is 806,000 UAH, which is less than the cost of the accessories. (Antikor, 12.12.25)
• Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies (NABU and SAP) secured the dismissal of a judge in Odesa region who issued 348 illegal rulings enabling draft-age men to leave the country or avoid military service under false pretenses. The scheme, involving at least 15 court employees and lawyers, charged $3,500 per decision and advertised services online. Nine people have already been convicted in the case. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.12.25)
• Zelenskyy signed Law No. 4633-IX, which expands the powers of the Security Service of Ukraine. According to the information, the new law grants the SSU the authority to independently develop and submit draft regulatory acts for consideration by the President of Ukraine and the Cabinet of Ministers on issues within its sphere of competence. Now, the Security Service of Ukraine officially acquires the status of a full-fledged subject of legislative initiative on par with ministries and other state authorities. (Antikor, 12.12.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Lithuania’s government declared a nationwide emergency on Dec. 9 to bolster security after months of fending off suspicious balloons that have floated into the country’s airspace from neighboring Belarus, disrupting flights and stirring chaos. There appeared to be no imminent threat that prompted Dec. 9’s order, but officials have accused Belarus of launching this year at least 599 weather balloons to smuggle cigarettes into Lithuania, including several in the past week alone, as well as 197 drones. (New York Times, 12.09.25)
• Across the former Soviet bloc, music fans have seen a surge of interest from some of the biggest names in U.S. music since Putin’s war in Ukraine effectively shut down Moscow as a tour destination in 2022. More than 20 global artists from Guns ‘n’ Roses to Bruno Mars have played in central Asia and the Caucasus since then, most of them for the first time. Demand among Russians for tickets to concerts abroad has exploded this year, with the Yandex Afisha site reporting a 70-fold increase. (Bloomberg, 12.06.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “The Russians do have the upper hand,” said Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group. Ukraine is not yet at the point where it must capitulate, he said, but it “is looking weak enough that the Russians think that they can impose demands.” (New York Times, 12.06.25)
• “Russia’s renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine is beginning to yield results. Russia is laser-focused on taking the city of Pokrovsk and other settlements in the Donbas region. By seizing these well-fortified positions, its military can entrench more deeply into areas such as Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava or Zaporizhzhia, which have so far avoided active combat,” Leo Litra warns. “Since July 2025, military assistance to Ukraine has decreased by approximately 43% compared to the previous six months,” Litra notes. Moreover, “General Christopher Cavoli… has estimated that Russia is outgunning Ukraine at a ratio of 10:1—and Ukraine’s lack of ammunition, air defense and other military equipment is weakening its defense capability,” Litra observes. (ECFR, 12.08.25)
• “Here's a simple description of what peace should look like in Ukraine: a sovereign nation, its borders protected by international security guarantees, that is part of the European Union and rebuilding its economy with big investments from the United States and Europe,” David Ignatius writes. Ignatius writes in his WP column that real negotiations on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war are advancing toward a U.S.-brokered peace deal—featuring security guarantees, EU accession, reconstruction funding, territorial compromises and a DMZ. In addition, “The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, would no longer be under Russian occupation. Negotiators are discussing the possibility that the United States might take over running the facility,” Ignatius states.  (Washington Post, 12.09.25)
• Fiona Hill, a member of Harvard’s Board of Overseers, said: “We need to have… for the stability of Europe and frankly for global security, some ironclad agreement that Russia is not going to continue this war… Putin trying to get everybody else to show their hand while keeping his somewhat concealed… he likes to see about how he can find people’s vulnerabilities… he thinks that the West will fold first… he thinks that this is a price worth paying… but not for that long… this kind of haggling… is not where we’re going to find a solution to this conflict.” (Brookings, 12.08.25)
• “The best deal each side can achieve is available now, not in six months or later. Ukraine will not gain anything by waiting to negotiate from a hypothetical future position of strength; such a position will not come soon, if ever,” Thomas Graham writes in Foreign Affairs. (Foreign Affairs, 12.10.25)

Endnotes

1. Sources used: Wall Street Journal, 12.11.25. RBC.ua, 12.12.25, Bloomberg, 12.11.25, Politico, 12.09.25, Bloomberg, 12.09.25.
2. Sources used: Wall Street Journal, 12.10.25, Bloomberg, 12.10.2, Kiel Institute, 12.10.25, RM, 12.12.25.
3. Separately, ISW estimated Russian gains in 2025 have totaled 4,652 square kilometers, about 80% of which are concentrated in six directions such as Lyman and Pokrovsk. (ISW, 12.11.25)
4. Trump’s peace plan calls for Ukraine to withdraw from its fortified “fortress belt” cities in Donbas forming a demilitarized zone that would be internationally recognized as Russian territory. U.S. officials, led by envoy Steve Witkoff, argue Ukraine “doesn’t have the cards” to hold out, but Zelenskyy and most Ukrainian analysts warn any concession would risk more Russian advances, likely incite fierce domestic backlash and lacks credible Western security guarantees. (Financial Times, 11.12.25)
5. Germany formally accused Russia of coordinating major cyberattacks on its air traffic control last August and interfering in February’s federal election, attributing the attacks to APT28 (“Fancy Bear”) and the Storm 1516 campaign. Berlin summoned the Russian ambassador and plans further countermeasures and new EU sanctions targeting “hybrid actors.” (The Moscow Times, 12.12.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, with Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pose on the doorstep of 10 Downing Street, London, Monday, Dec. 8, 2025, following a meeting of the leaders inside. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)