7 Things to Know

1. Russia has refrained from direct attacks on the three nuclear plants which are located on the territories controlled by Kyiv and which are now responsible for most of Ukraine’s electricity. Rather than target these NPPS in what could trigger a “catastrophic disaster,” Russian forces have recently focused on crippling these power plants’ abilities to transmit power by destroying the substations connecting them to the grid, according to NYT. In an effort to prevent such crippling, Ukraine has asked the IAEA to have its personnel stay at the substations, but the agency has only agreed to send periodic monitoring missions. Together, the three NPPs can provide 7.7 gigawatts of electricity, more than half of the country’s current generation capacity, according to DiXi Group. Thus, Ukraine is left dependent on three old Soviet nuclear power plants for as much as two-thirds of the country’s electricity generation. It is also highly unlikely that the IAEA will agree to have its personnel serve as human shields at Ukraine’s three NPPs.
2. Russia gained 227 square miles of territory (589 square kilometers, roughly the size of Chicago) in the month preceding Dec. 31, 2024, according to The Economist. In the past two weeks alone, the Russian armed forces have captured Makarivka, Sukhi Yaly and Zelenivka, Ukrainka, Dachenske, Novyi Trud and Vovkove, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group. To compensate for being outgunned and outmanned, the Ukrainian armed forces have recently resorted to badly-needed innovations, such as the first attack relying solely on unmanned ground vehicles, which occurred north of Kharkiv City on Dec. 20. In another instance of innovation, on Dec. 31 a Ukrainian naval drone shot down a Russian military helicopter for the first time, according to Ukraine’s intelligence service cited by Bloomberg.  
3. Ukrainian authorities have launched a criminal probe into mass desertions in the country’s 155th mechanized brigade named after Anne of Kyiv and trained in France, according to Kyiv Independent. At least 50 of the brigade’s servicemen disappeared while they were still being drilled in France, according to Telegraph. By the time the brigade entered battle for the first time, at least 1,700 of its troops had gone AWOL, according to this UK newspaper. Figures published by the Ukrainian general prosecutor's office show that more than 90,000 cases have been opened into instances of soldiers going absent without leave or deserting since Russia invaded in 2022, according to AFP.
4. The U.S. government has said it will allocate almost $6 billion in additional aid to Ukraine, as Biden rushes to provide Kyiv with fresh firepower before his presidency expires, FT reported. The transfer includes $1.25 billion in assistance from U.S. weapons and ammunition stockpiles, as well as $1.22 billion which allows Ukraine to purchase goods directly from the U.S. defense industry. The package includes ammunition for the high mobility artillery rocket system, air defense munitions and anti-tank missiles.
5. Russia’s two top diplomats have signaled the pending end of what the Kremlin has claimed to be a self-imposed moratorium on the deployment of medium-range missiles that were once banned by the now-defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. First, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused the U.S. of deploying such missiles in Asia and Europe in an interview with Kommersant on Dec. 27. Then his boss, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov weighed in two days later, asserting that “it is obvious that, for example, our moratorium on the deployment of INF missiles is already practically unviable and will have to be abandoned.”
6. In the waning days of 2024, Vladimir Putin expressed readiness to meet Donald Trump in the new year to discuss ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, but the Russian leadership was also quick to reject some of the key elements of a hypothetical peace deal proposed by Trump’s aides and his Western European counterparts. Among the rejected elements were immediate unconditional ceasefire, the stationing of a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine and the deferral of Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years. In fact, "nothing from the incoming U.S. administration suggests anything of interest to us," Russia's envoy to the U.N., Vasily Nebenzya said of the Trump team’s proposals.
7. A most paradoxical feature of Russian-Ukrainian interaction throughout the course of the war has been that, in spite of the hostilities, Ukraine has continued to allow the transit of Russian gas through its territory. Not anymore. At 8 a.m. on Jan. 1, Russian gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine stopped, following the expiration of the transit contract. The route through Ukraine was one of the last two routes still carrying Russian gas to Europe. Its closure means EU countries will lose about 5% of gas imports in the middle of winter, according to FT.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• With most of its thermal and hydroelectric power plants destroyed or badly damaged, Ukraine has relied on its three operational nuclear power stations to keep the lights on. Together, they can provide 7.7 gigawatts of electricity, more than half of the country’s current generation capacity, according to DiXi Group. Russia has refrained from attacking the nuclear plants directly, which could trigger a catastrophic disaster. Instead, it has recently focused on crippling their ability to transmit power by destroying the substations connecting Ukraine’s NPPs to the grid. Ukraine has asked International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials to stay at the substations, banking on their presence to deter Russian attacks. So far, the IAEA has agreed to conduct periodic monitoring missions at critical substations, but not to station agents there permanently, according to Greenpeace. (NYT, 12.22.24) Recent estimates put the share of electric power generated by Ukraine’s NPPs at 70% as opposed to “more than half.”
• Russia intends to issue Russian licenses for the operation of all six of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant's reactors by 2028 as part of Moscow's long-term efforts to legitimize its illegal occupation of the plant and exploit Ukraine's energy supplies. (ISW, 01.02.25)
• Russia is building more than 10 nuclear units abroad, according to Boris Titov, the Kremlin’s special representative for international cooperation in sustainability. (FT, 12.23.24)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the law on Russia's denunciation of the framework agreement on the Multilateral Nuclear-Ecological Program (MNEPR). The denunciation of the agreement first of all puts an end to possible future cooperation between countries in projects to clean up the Arctic zone, says Alexander Nikitin, an expert at the Bellona Environmental Association. Before the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Norway, France, partly Italy and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development participated in the agreement together with Russia. (Istories, 12.28.24)
• On Dec. 29, Russian nuclear power plants completed the annual state assignment of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia ahead of schedule to generate 214.033 billion kWh of electricity. (Rosatom, 12.30.24)
• Rosatom hires 3,000 university graduates annually, and its demand will grow to 8,000- 9,000 by 2030. At the same time, university output is expected to grow only 1.5 times. (D. Kovchegin’s Russian Nuclear Security Update #25, 12.25.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the deployment of DPRK troops to the Kursk region was North Korea's idea and not Russia's, though Putin quickly embraced it, American officials say. U.S. officials do not believe Kim Jong Un has received anything immediate in return. (NYT, 12.23.24)
• On Dec. 23, North Korea was reported to be planning to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia amid reports that over 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed and wounded in Kursk Oblast. (ISW, 12.23.24, WSJ, 12.23.24)
• On Dec. 23, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that North Korea has suffered 1,100 irrecoverable losses in the Russia-Ukraine war. (Meduza, 12.23.24)
• Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lt. Andriy Kovalenko told WSJ in an article published Dec. 23 that 60% of the artillery and mortar shells that Russian forces use in Ukraine come from North Korea. In turn, Pyongyang is already receiving much-needed cash and oil from Russia. (ISW, 12.23.24, WSJ, 12.23.24)
• On Dec. 23, the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions against banks, shipping companies and nine individuals in response to Kim's support for Russia and North Korea's missile testing. (NYT, 12.23.24)
• On Dec. 27, White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby stated that North Korean forces suffered around 1,000 casualties over the past week in Kursk Oblast (roughly Dec. 20 to 27) and that the Russian command is using—and North Korean authorities are permitting Russia to use—lower and higher-ranking North Korean soldiers in infantry-led assaults without armored vehicle support. (ISW, 12.27.24)
• On Dec. 27, South Korean intelligence was reported to have claimed that Ukrainian forces have captured a North Korean soldier who was fighting on the Russian side. (Meduza, 12.27.24)
• Kim Jong Un hailed Putin as his "dearest friend" in a New Year's letter to the Russian leader praising close bilateral ties, state media said Dec. 31. (MT/AFP, 12.31.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled Tehran's readiness to resume nuclear talks, saying the country’s willingness to return to the trust-building framework that underpinned the original JCPOA agreement during an extensive interview with Chinese state broadcaster CCTV on Jan. 3. (BNE, 01.03.25)
• On Dec. 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the new strategic partnership treaty with Iran “has long been prepared and agreed upon by the parties.” He said the signing of the agreement is expected “to take place during the next high-level contact soon.” Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian is scheduled to travel to Russia on Jan. 17. (RF MFA, 12.29.24, RFE/RL, 12.26.24) Russian officials have been saying since before last year's BRICS summit that Putin and Pezeshkian will soon sign this key treaty. 
• Russia continued to expand its domestic production capabilities of Iranian-designed Shahed drones ahead of its Winter 2024-2025 strike campaign against Ukraine. CNN, citing Ukrainian defense intelligence sources, estimated on Dec. 27 that Russia's Shahed drone production facility in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan produced 5,760 drones between January and September 2024—more than twice the number of drones that the facility produced in 2023. (ISW, 12.27.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russian forces recently executed more Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on the battlefield. Geolocated footage published on Dec. 22 shows Russian forces executing five Ukrainian POWs in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area in Blahodatne (south of Velyka Novosilka). (ISW, 12.22.24)
• Police in Ukraine have identified a Russian commander involved in the murder of 52-year-old Bucha resident Iryna Filkina, according to the Bucha City Council. According to Ukraine’s National Police, the person identified as having been involved in the murder is 29-year-old Artem Taraev, the commander of the 234th Air Assault Regiment of the Russian Army’s 76th Guards Airborne Division. (Meduza, 12.30.24)
• Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners of war for the 11th time in 2024; 150 servicemen returned to Russia, 187 soldiers returned to Ukraine, including defenders of Azovstal and Mariupol, as well as two civilians. (Istories, 12.30.24)
• Ukraine received requests from Russians about 50,000 missing Russian soldiers. The requests were submitted via the "I Want to Find" platform, Ukrainian officials told RBC.ua. (RM, 01.03.25)
• The United Nations has warned that power outages in Ukraine could last up to 18 hours a day this winter, “leaving civilians without the electricity they need to power homes, run water pumps and allow children to study online.” (NYT, 12.21.24)
• On Dec. 23, Denys Shmyhal, Prime Minister of Ukraine, said Ukraine has received the sixth tranche of the joint program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of $1.1 billion. (RBC.ua, 12.23.24)
• Japan will provide Ukraine with $3 billion in non-lethal assistance generated solely from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Dec. 25 for the new aid package and for additional assistance for energy equipment and the construction of shelters in Ukraine. (ISW, 12.26.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the month of November 2024, Russia launched approximately 2,300 One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS) of varying types into Ukraine. Monthly OWA UAS numbers have been increasing consistently throughout 2024, with significant increases—greater than 200 on the previous month—since July 2024. It is likely that through September–November 2024, as many as 50-60% of the total launches were “decoy” OWA UAS. It remains likely that Russia can sustain numbers at least in excess of 1,500 per month.  (U.K. MoD, 12.23.24)
• On Nov. 27, chief of Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov called Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to discuss concerns about escalation, insisting that its Oreshnik MRBM test had been long planned. During the call, Gerasimov said that the Oreshnik launch had been planned long before the Biden administration agreed to allow Ukraine to use American ATACMS to strike deeper into Russia, officials said. After that Nov. 27 call, Ukraine didn’t fire ATACMS or Storm Shadows for two weeks. Russia also launched few missile or drone attacks into Ukraine. Putin is trying to react carefully to Ukrainian operations, the U.S. officials said. They believe Moscow will most likely not respond to ATACMS strikes in a way that could risk drawing Washington deeper in the fight or put the new administration in an awkward position as it comes in. (NYT, 12.27.24)
• Russia gained 589 km² of territory in the month preceding Dec. 31, 2024. (The Economist, 12.31.24)
• Military analysts say Ukraine has lost around 40% of the land it initially captured in Russia’s Kursk region. (AP, 01.03.25)
• On Dec. 20, Ukrainian forces were reported to have conducted their first attack solely using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and first-person view (FPV) drones north of Kharkiv City, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing efforts to leverage technological innovation into ground operations. (ISW, 12.20.24)
• On Dec. 20, Russian opposition outlet Mediazona reported that it has confirmed that at least 20,364 Russian soldiers have been killed in action in Ukraine since Jan. 1, 2024. (ISW, 12.20.24)
• On the night of Dec. 20-21, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched one S-400 guided anti-air missile from occupied Donetsk Oblast toward Poltava Oblast and 113 Shahed drones and other unspecified drones from the directions Bryansk, Oryol and Kursk oblasts; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko- Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 57 Shahed drones and other unspecified drones over Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and that 56 drones were “lost” due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. (ISW, 12.21.24)
• On Dec. 21, Zelenskyy stated that Russian forces used over 550 glide bombs, nearly 550 strike drones and over 20 missiles against Ukraine over the past week (since about Dec. 14). (ISW, 12.21.24)
• On Dec. 21, Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan. Footage published on Dec. 21 shows several Ukrainian drones striking large apartment buildings and other unspecified buildings in Kazan, Russian sources claimed that Russian forces destroyed six Ukrainian drones near Kazan and downed one drone over a nearby river and that one drone struck near an unspecified industrial enterprise in Kazan. Putin vowed revenge over this attack. (ISW, 12.21.24, RFE/RL, 12.22.24)
• On Dec. 21, Russian forces were reported to have advanced within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued offensive operations. Geolocated footage published on Dec. 20 and 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced to the southeastern outskirts of Darino and the northern outskirts of Kruglenkoye (both southeast of Korenevo). (ISW, 12.21.24)
• In the night of Dec. 21 to 22, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Oryol Oblast with drones. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported on Dec. 22 that that Russian oil refineries experienced a total downtime that prevented the facilities from refining 41.1 million tons of oil in 2024 after having only experienced a total downtime worth 35.9 million tons of oil in 2023. (ISW, 12.22.24)
• On Dec. 23, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Makarivka, Sukhi Yaly and Zelenivka, (RM, 01.03.25)
• On Dec. 22, Russia said it had captured the villages of Lozova in the northeastern Kharkiv region and Krasnoye—called Sontsivka in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 12.22.24)
• On Dec. 23, Russian forces were reported to be gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk. (ISW, 12.23.24)
• On Dec. 23, Russia's military said that its forces had captured the village of Storozheve in eastern Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 12.23.24)
• In an interview published Dec. 24, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine's forces, declared the Kursk operation a success. He said the offensive helped halt a Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region, and helped stave off a new Russian offensive in a neighboring region. ''I had no choice,'' Syrskyi said. ''I had to carry out this operation.'' (NYT, 12.23.24)
• On Dec. 24, one person was killed and 11 were wounded by a ballistic missile strike on an apartment block in the Ukrainian city of Kryviy Rih. (RFE/RL, 12.24.24)
• In the period of Dec. 24-25, Russian forces seized Kurakhove following two months of intensified offensive operations aimed at seizing the settlement and eliminating the Ukrainian salient north and south of the settlement. Nestled in the Donetsk Oblast, in southeastern Ukraine, Kurakhove was an important part of the Ukrainian defensive line. (ISW, 12.26.24, NI, 12.26.24)
  • DeepState on Dec. 28 refuted a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) about the possible capture of Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, according to the New Voice of Ukraine. (RM, 01.03.25)
• On the night of Dec. 24 to 25, Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, seriously damaging thermal power plants (TPPs). The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh Oblast; 10 S-300/400 missiles from Belgorod Oblast; 12 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea; 50 Kh-101/55 cruise missiles from the airspace over Volgograd Oblast and the Caspian Sea; four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from Belgorod Oblast; and 106 Shahed and decoy drones from Millerovo in Rostov Oblast, Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai, Bryansk Oblast and Oryol Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Ukrainian forces downed 55 Kh-101/55 and Kalibr cruise missiles, four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 54 Shahed and decoy drones and that 52 drones were "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces targeted Ukrainian fuel and energy facilities in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Zelenskyy stated on Dec. 25 that Russian forces aim to cause a full blackout in Ukraine. (ISW, 12.26.24)
• On Dec. 25, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Ukrainka. (RM, 01.03.25)
• On Dec. 25, at least four people were killed and five others were injured in a Ukrainian attack on the town of Lgov in Russia’s southwestern Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 12.25.24)
• On Dec. 25, a woman was killed in a fire after a drone crashed into a shopping mall in Russia's republic of North Ossetia. (MT/AFP, 12.25.24)
• On Dec. 25, Russia carried out a Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system, leaving more than half a million people without heating, water and electricity. About 50 of the 70 missiles fired in the attack were intercepted, along with a “significant” portion of the more than 100 attack drones deployed. Oleh Syniehubov, governor of Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region, told Ukraine’s national television news that the attack had left more than 500,000 people without heating, water and electricity. (FT, 12.25.24)
• On Dec. 27, Ukrainian forces were reported to have conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian staff meeting in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reportedly killing three Russian officers. (ISW, 12.27.24)
• On Dec. 27, Ukraine’s forces were assessed to have lost about half the territory seized in Russia’s Kursk region, and may lose the rest in a matter of months, according to U.S. officials. (Bloomberg, 12.27.24)
• On Dec. 28, Ukrainian forces were reported to have struck a Russian Shahed drone storage, maintenance, and repair facility in Oryol City, Oryol Oblast. (ISW, 12.28.24)
• On Dec. 29, Russia claimed to have seized Novotroyitske, a settlement with a prewar population of 6,300, about 16 kilometers south of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region. Pokrovsk, a city with a prewar population of 60,000, is the biggest location where Ukraine’s defenses are at risk of buckling under relentless Russian assault. It’s far from the only one, however. (RFE/RL, 01.03.25, RFE/RL, 12.29.24)
• On Dec. 30, Ukrainian armed forces struck a hospital in the partially occupied Kherson region, killing a doctor and wounding another, the region's Kremlin-installed governor said. (MT/AFP, 12.30.24)
• Overnight on Dec. 30-31, Ukrainian sea and aerial drones targeted Sevastopol, according to Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-appointed governor of the annexed region. Razvozhayev reported that Russian forces intercepted “four aerial targets over the sea” and destroyed two unmanned boats at a distance from the coast. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that its air defense systems destroyed 68 Ukrainian drones overnight: 25 in Bryansk, 17 in Crimea, 11 in Krasnodar Krai, 10 in Smolensk, two in Tver and one each in the Rostov, Kursk and Kaluga regions. (Meduza,12.31.24)
• On Dec. 31, Russian forces were reported to have gained 4,168 square kilometers, largely comprised of fields and small settlements in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, at a reported cost of over 420,000 casualties in the outgoing year. Russian advances have slowed in December 2024, however. ISW has observed geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces gained 593 square kilometers or 18.1 square kilometers per day in December 2024, while the number of daily Russian casualties in December 2024 remained similar to the estimated daily casualty rate in November 2024. (ISW, 12.31.24)
• On Dec. 31, Ukraine’s intelligence service said a naval drone had struck down a Russian military helicopter for the first time and forced another one to return to an airfield after being hit. An airborne Russian Mi-8 helicopter was hit by a Ukrainian Magura V5 drone near Cape Tarkhankut in occupied Crimea, the intelligence agency said in a statement on Telegram. The unmanned craft was equipped with R-73 missiles, it said. (Bloomberg, 12.31.24)
• As of the second half of December, Russia has lost more than 11,000 armored combat vehicles in the war, including some 3,600 tanks, according to the estimates of Western officials and analysts—equivalent to almost 15 years of Russian tank production at prewar levels. Analysts say Russia has around 2,600 tanks left in reserve. Michael Gjerstad, who tracks the Russian military at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, estimates that Russia is now producing new and refurbished tanks at the same rate it is losing them on the battlefield—more than 100 a month. (WSJ, 12.21.24)
  • A social media source tracking Russian military depots via satellite imagery shared an updated assessment of Russian tank and armored vehicle storage facilities on Dec. 22 and assessed that Russian forces have 47% of their pre-war tank reserves, 52% of pre-war infantry fighting vehicle reserves and 45 % of pre-war armored personnel carrier reserves remaining in storage as of a recent unspecified date. (ISW, 12.23.24) 
• In December, according to Ukraine's defense minister, the country produced some 200,000 drones, more than double as many as a year ago. (WSJ, 12.22.24)
• On the night of Jan. 1, some 111 Russian Shahed drones attacked Ukraine. Authorities reported the death of two people in Kyiv. (Media Zone, 01.02.25)
• On Jan. 1, Russian drones were reported to have killed two people and injured six others in the latest attack on Kyiv. Even as Ukraine’s air defenses downed or jammed most of 111 drones, others fell near the government’s quarter in Kyiv, local authorities said on Telegram. (Bloomberg, 01.01.25)
• On Jan. 1, a Russian air attack on Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia region killed one person. (MT/AFP, 01.02.25)
• On Jan. 1, a Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at an oil depot in western Russia's Smolensk region. (MT/AFP, 12.31.24)
• On the night of Jan. 1-2, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia launched 72 drones, of which 47 were shot down. The Ukrainian Armed Forces specified that these were Shahed and other types of drones. The attack was carried out from the Bryansk, Orel, Kursk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk directions. (Media Zone, 01.02.25)
• On Jan. 2, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Dachenske, Novyi Trud and Vovkove. (RM, 01.03.25)
• In the early hours of Jan. 2, the Russian military launched a wave of drone strikes on Ukraine. Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russian forces deployed a total of 72 drones from Bryansk, Oryol, Kursk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. By morning, Ukrainian air defenses had intercepted 47 Shahed drones over the Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Ukraine’s military also reported that 24 additional Russian “decoy drones” were “lost to radar tracking (without causing harm).” (Meduza, 01.02.25)
• On Jan. 2, Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation said it has launched a probe into suspected desertion and abuse of authority in the French-trained 155th "Anne of Kyiv" Mechanized Brigade. At least 50 members of the unit disappeared while elements of the unit were still being drilled in France. By the time the unit, which is named after Anne of Kyiv, entered battle for the first time, at least 1,700 of its troops went absent without leave at numerous points. The brigade had spent nine months training in western Ukraine, Poland and France as part of an effort by Zelenskyy to establish 14 new brigades equipped and prepared by the West. (Kyiv Independent, 01.03.25, Telegraph, 01.02.25)
  • Figures published by the Ukrainian general prosecutor's office show that more than 90,000 cases have been opened into instances of soldiers going absent without leave or deserting since Russia invaded in 2022, with a sharp increase over the past year. (AFP, 12.27.24)
• On Jan. 3, a Russian drone attack near Kyiv killed one person and wounded four others, local officials said. Ukraine's air force said Russia launched 93 drones overnight. It added that 60 attack drones and 26 decoy-style drones were downed or "lost"—either shot down or disabled by electronic interceptors. (MT/AFP, 01.03.25)
• On Jan. 3, two people were injured as a result of Ukrainian attacks in the Belgorod region on Jan. 3, the region's governor Vyacheslav Gladkov reports. In the Bryansk region, a resident of the village of Kirillovka was killed as a result of mortar shelling, writes Gov. Alexander Bogomaz. (Media Zone, 01.03.25)
• On Jan. 1-3, Russia launched 300 drones at targets in Ukraine, according to Zelenskyy. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.03.25)
• Some 1.3 million Ukrainian men are living abroad, while 1.5 million are disabled, 0.6 million are critical workers, 2.9 million are living in the occupied territories and 1.2 million are already serving. An additional 0.9 million men are not registered in the systems. This leaves 3.7 Ukrainian men that can be mobilized. (FT, 12.21.24)
• A cruise missile with nearly identical flight characteristics can be 12 times cheaper to produce in Ukraine than in western Europe. The Trembita missile, for example, starts at just $3,000 in its decoy variant, and $15,000 complete with a 20-30kg warhead—a bargain in the missile world. The basic Trembita flies at 400 km/h with a range of 200km. A larger and more powerful model is being developed to reach Moscow. Serial production is set to follow the final field tests. (The Economist, 12.24.24)
• About 600,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war, according to American estimates. And the rate of casualties has risen in the past month as Moscow has begun a drive to take back Kursk and claim more territory in eastern Ukraine. (NYT, 12.23.24)
• Russia’s strategy of giving priority to infantry assaults has significantly raised the human cost, with Western officials estimating Russian casualties in Ukraine at almost 1,000 a day on average this fall, compared with fewer than 300 throughout most of 2022. It has also made it far harder for Russia to attempt encirclements or major operational breakthroughs in much of Ukraine's east. (WSJ, 12.21.24)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said it thwarted multiple assassination plots allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence and carried out by Russian citizens recruited to execute the attacks. Four Russian nationals were detained during operations, the FSB said, adding that searches uncovered improvised explosive devices and communication equipment “used in criminal activities.” (MT/AFP, 12.26.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The U.S. has said it will unleash almost $6bn in additional aid to Ukraine, as the Biden administration rushes to provide Kyiv with fresh firepower. The U.S. on Dec. 30 said it would provide $2.5bn in new military aid and $3.4bn in direct budget assistance to Kyiv. The Dec. 30 transfer includes $1.25bn in assistance from U.S. weapons and ammunition stockpiles as well as $1.22bn in funds from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows Ukraine to purchase goods directly from the U.S. defense industry. The package of military aid includes ammunition for the high mobility artillery rocket system, air defense munitions to counter drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, TOW anti-tank missiles, and other weapons and ammunition. (FT, 12.30.24, NYT, 12.30.24)
  • Zelenskyy said the additional U.S. security assistance for Ukraine announced comes at a critical moment and will help strengthen Ukrainian defenses along the front line. "It also demonstrates that democracies are stronger than autocratic aggressors," Zelenskyy said. (RFE/RL, 12.30.24)
• Kyiv is running out of missiles. It also might be running out of time: President-elect Donald Trump has said publicly that allowing U.S.-made long-range missiles inside Russia was a big mistake. So far, the Western-supplied missiles have been effective in limited ways, but they have not changed the war’s trajectory, senior NATO officials said. Western officials say Ukraine has relied too much on help from the West and hasn’t done enough to bolster its own war effort, especially in mobilizing enough troops. (NYT, 12.27.24)
  • By the time Biden had justified granting permission on Nov. 17 to let Ukraine use the ATACMS missiles against targets inside Russia’s internationally recognized borders, Ukraine had only “tens of the missiles” left—maybe about 50, two U.S. officials said. Since the United States and Britain granted permission, Ukraine has launched at least a half-dozen missile strikes, using at least 31 ATACMS and 14 Storm Shadows. Ukraine has no likelihood of getting more, the two U.S. official said, because the limited American supplies had already been assigned for deployment in the Middle East and Asia. (NYT, 12.27.24)
• U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is scheduled to chair the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, on Jan. 9. This will be the 25th meeting of the Contact Group. (Korrespondent.net, 01.03.25) This will be probably be Lloyd’s last participation in the group’s work in the capacity of U.S. defense secretary.
• On Dec. 23, the first unit of the Ukrainian Legion, which is being formed in Poland, was reported to have left for Ukraine, where the servicemen will continue their training. (Korrespondent.net, 12.23.24)
• In his New Year's address, Zelenskyy urged continued U.S. support. He also reiterated his vow that his country would never give up on the goal of making Ukraine whole again. (NYT, 01.02.25)
• The polling by YouGov of several European countries showed that willingness to back Ukraine until it defeated Russia remained high in Sweden (50%) and Denmark (40%), with the U.K. on 36%, but those levels were down by as much as 14 points on January figures of 57%, 51% and 50%. Over the same period, the percentages saying they preferred a negotiated peace surged to 55% from 45% in Italy, 46% (38%) in Spain, 43% (35%) in France and 45% (38%) in Germany, matched by corresponding falls in readiness to back Ukraine until it won. (The Guardian, 12.26.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The United States has imposed sanctions against the Russian judge who sentenced human rights activist Alexei Gorinov to seven years in jail for speaking against the war in Ukraine. The U.S. Treasury Department on Dec. 31 said it was imposing sanctions on Olesya Mendeleeva "for her role in the arbitrary detention” of Gorinov, a former Moscow municipal deputy. (RFE/RL, 12.31.24)
• It took the promise of access to contraband, an FBI front company and help from Fiji, but they got their man: U.S. investigators, picked off a supplier of parts Moscow needs for its war in Ukraine. The smuggler, Maxim Marchenko, was sentenced in July by a New York court to three years in prison for his role in procuring military-grade electronics for Russia. The Americans missed their ultimate goal, however: More than seven months after Marchenko's arrest, his network was still in business. (WSJ, 01.02.25)
• At Dec. 18 discussions at the home of NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte, Polish President Andrzej Duda called for the EU to confiscate and spend the €260bn worth of Russian sovereign assets immobilized at European financial institutions—an idea promoted by the U.S. and U.K. but resisted by Germany, France and Italy. “You don’t understand how this would affect the stability of our financial markets,” Olaf Scholz barked across the table at Duda, startling other leaders present, according to three people briefed on the discussions. “You don’t even use the euro!” (FT, 12.21.24)
• An Iranian oil tycoon who’s managed to quietly embed himself in the heart of the Western financial system is among a cadre of businessmen handling weapons deliveries across the Caspian Sea to Russia, helping Moscow in its war in Ukraine. Hossein Shamkhani, through a web of firms he oversees that include Dubai-based Crios Shipping LLC, began moving missiles, drone components and dual-use goods across the Caspian Sea on at least two ships last year, according to more than a dozen U.S., U.K. and European officials as well as people with direct knowledge of his dealings. (Bloomberg, 12.24.24)
• Putin has given a local company control of Anheuser-Busch InBev’s joint venture, upending the brewer’s plans to exit the country via a deal with a Turkish partner. All the shares of AB InBev Efes Russia, a tie-up between the Belgian brewer and Anadolu Efes of Turkey, are now under the temporary control of the Vmeste group of companies, a presidential decree published Dec. 30 said, without giving any details on Vmeste. (Bloomberg, 12.30.24)
• Two top Russian weapons engineering institutes, named as developers of the Oreshnik MRBM missile by Ukrainian intelligence, have both been advertising for workers familiar with metalworking systems made by German and Japanese companies. The job posts for the Moscow Institute for Thermal Technology and Sozvezdie, which were tracked by the Financial Times, illustrate how the Kremlin’s war machine remains critically dependent on foreign technology covered by Western sanctions. (FT, 12.27.24)
• Chemicals factories founded or owned by some of Russia's wealthiest men are supplying ingredients to plants that manufacture explosives used by Moscow's military during the war in Ukraine, an analysis of railway and financial data shows. Reuters identified five chemical companies, in which five Western-sanctioned billionaires hold stakes, that provided more than 75% of the key chemicals shipped by rail to some of Russia's largest explosives factories from the start of the war until September this year, according to the railway data. The billionaires include Roman Abramovich, former owner of Chelsea Football Club, and Vagit Alekperov, who was ranked by Forbes in April as Russia's richest man with a fortune estimated at $28.6 billion. (Reuters, 01.02.25)
• Wealthy Russians are routinely sidestepping trade curbs on luxury brands, using a cottage industry of personal shoppers, resellers and cross-border smugglers to stay in step with the best of European fashion. (FT, 12.26.26)
• Russian smugglers are charging tens of thousands of euros to import luxury cars from Europe, as EU sanctions in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine hit the country’s wealthy. The Financial Times has identified five Russian companies offering to smuggle cars from Europe with engine sizes sufficient to come under EU sanctions, which were imposed in 2022 as part of a ban on the export of luxury goods to the country. (FT, 12.30.24)
• YouTube traffic in Russia has plummeted to just 20% of its “normal levels” in recent days, Mikhail Klimarev, director of the nonprofit organization Society for the Protection of the Internet, said. (RFE/RL, 12.24.24)
• Authorities in Moscow vowed on Dec. 28 to retaliate after the channels of several state media outlets were blocked for EU-based users of the messaging app Telegram. The Telegram channels of RIA Novosti, Rossiya 1, Channel One, NTV, Izvestia and Rossiiskaya Gazeta stopped being accessible within the EU. (MT/AFP, 12.30.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• On Dec. 21, a senior European official was quoted as saying that if peacekeeping force were to be deployed to Ukraine, then that would require at least 50,000-60,000 troops based on the assumption they would be able to “fight back,” according to assessments he has seen. They would need to be highly mechanized forces and would require an enormous logistical and resupply effort. It is a tall order, the diplomat suggests. (FT, 12.21.24)
• “President Putin said that he wants to meet with me as soon as possible,” Trump said on Dec. 22. “We have to end that war.” Trump has claimed he can find a solution to the conflict and produce a ceasefire in Ukraine within “a day,” raising the prospect that he may insist Kyiv embraces a peace deal that is significantly more advantageous for Moscow. (FT, 12.22.24)
• On Dec. 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated his latest assertion that he should have violated the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 by launching a full-scale invasion even earlier than February 2022. Putin reiterated that Russia should have started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier than February 2022, but added that it is impossible to say exactly when that should have been. Putin blamed Ukraine and the West for "misleading" Russia and not implementing the Minsk II accords. (ISW, 12.22.24)
• On Dec. 24, Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko stated that Russia is open to compromise in negotiations with Ukraine, but that Russia will strictly adhere to the conditions that it laid out during negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022, when Russian troops were advancing on Kyiv and throughout eastern and southern Ukraine. (ISW, 12.24.24)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Dec. 25: “Putin’s June 14 speech at the Foreign Ministry... contains a demand to fulfill what has been repeatedly agreed upon over many years: demilitarization of Ukraine, and respect for the obligations under the U.N. Charter, including with regard to human rights, language and religious rights among them. Can these truly be called conditions? This is the bare minimum of what any normal member of the international community must do. We will not be satisfied with a truce. We need reliable and legally binding agreements aimed at eliminating the root causes of the conflict, addressing problems such as common security in Europe, NATO expansion, the European Union’s recent decision to become an appendage of the North Atlantic bloc, in fact, erasing all differences between these organizations, and above all, upholding the rights of the people living in these territories who have supported reunification with the Russian Federation.” (RF MFA, 12.25.24)
• On Dec. 26, Lavrov claimed that France tried to engage with Moscow in talks about the Ukraine war without the participation of Kyiv. "On several occasions, our French colleagues have appealed through confidential channels: 'Let us help, let's have a dialogue on the Ukrainian question... Without Ukraine," Lavrov said at a press conference, adding that Russian officials were "ready to listen." Lavrov did not specify when French authorities made the alleged appeals. (MT/AFP, 12.26.24)
• [When asked to comment on suggestions that the conflict in Ukraine might be resolved as early as next year,] Putin said: “As the saying goes, ‘From your lips to God’s ears.’ We are indeed working toward ending the conflict.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.26.24)
• On Dec. 26, Putin explicitly rejected a suggestion reportedly considered by Trump's team in early November 2024 that would delay Ukraine's membership in NATO for at least a decade as a condition for ending the war in Ukraine. In response to a journalist's request to comment, Putin stated that it does not matter if Ukraine joins NATO "today, tomorrow, or in 10 years." (ISW, 12.26.24)
• On Dec. 26, Putin welcomed an offer from Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to host possible peace negotiations regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war. “We’re not against the idea if it reaches that stage. And why not? From our point of view, Slovakia has taken a neutral position,” Putin said after a Supreme Eurasian Economic Council summit. (Istories, 12.27.24)
• On Dec. 26, Lavrov said: “I really hope that Mr. Trump’s administration, including Mr. Kellogg, will delve into the root causes of the conflict. We are always ready for consultations, ready to confirm once again, if someone does not understand our repeatedly and extremely clearly stated position: we are open to any negotiations, if the negotiations are on the essence, on the root causes and principles that President Putin spoke about in June of this year. (Kommersant, 12.26.24, RF MFA, 12.26.24)
  • Lavrov rebuffed Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, while saying it’s ready to hold negotiations on a long-lasting peace agreement to end almost three years of war. “A ceasefire is a road to nowhere” that Ukraine will use to build up its military capacity, Lavrov said in an online news conference. “We need conclusive, legally-binding agreements which will create all the conditions for ensuring the security of the Russian Federation and, of course, the legitimate security interests of our neighbors.” (Bloomberg, 12.26.24)
  • Lavrov claimed on Dec. 26 during an interview that Zelenskyy is not legitimate according to Ukraine's constitution and that Ukraine needs to hold presidential elections. (ISW, 12.26.24)
• On Dec. 29, Lavrov repeated Russia’s demands for the “demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, ensuring its non-aligned, neutral and non-nuclear status, eliminating long-term threats to Russia's security emanating from the West, including NATO expansion” when discussing under what conditions the war could end. He also said that “Kyiv must take on specific obligations to ensure the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens and, of course, recognize the territorial realities enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation.” He also said, “Kyiv and the West have begun discussing the possibility of some kind of ceasefire and armistice in order to gain a respite and, during it, increase the military potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and then resume efforts to inflict a ‘strategic defeat’ on Russia. Of course, this is a dead end.” Lavrov stated in an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS that Russia is "not satisfied" with the Trump team's reported early November 2024 proposals to delay Ukraine's membership in NATO for 20 years and to station a European peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine. (RF MFA, 12.29.24, ISW, 12.29.24)
• After previously stating that negotiations could begin only once Moscow withdrew all its troops, Zelenskyy is now emphasizing the need for long-term security rather than the immediate return of territory. Zelenskyy's change in rhetoric—something Ukrainian and Western officials have noticed—can probably be attributed to a worsening situation on the front line and an incoming U.S. administration that has put future security assistance for Kyiv in doubt. A senior NATO diplomat said Zelenskyy cannot back down from the demand for Western security guarantees despite the reluctance among key allies. (WP, 12.23.24)
• On Jan. 2, Zelenskyy said in a televised interview that Trump's "unpredictability" could help end the war with Russia. Zelenskyy said he believes Putin is afraid of Trump, who he said could be "decisive" in ending the war. "He's very strong and unpredictable, and I would really like to see President Trump's unpredictability apply to Russia,” Zelenskyy said. “The ‘hot’ stage of the war can end quite quickly, if Trump is strong in his position,” Zelenskyy said. (RFE/RL, 01.02.25, AP, 01.03.25)
• On Jan. 3, Russia's envoy to the U.N., Vasily Nebenzya, said that Trump's team has not presented anything interesting to Moscow regarding ending the war in Ukraine. “So far, nothing from the incoming U.S. administration suggests anything of interest to us," he said. (Kyiv Independent, 01.03.25)
• The share of Ukrainians willing to make certain territorial concessions to Russia has grown from 32% to 38%, according to a KIIS survey. The increase occurred between early October and December. At the same time, the proportion of those firmly opposed to any concessions dropped. Despite the challenges, 51% of Ukrainians in December opposed territorial concessions, down from 58% in early October. (english.nv.ua, 01.03.25)
• YouGov polling in several European countries has also showed division on feelings about a peace settlement that would leave Russia in control of at least some Ukrainian territory it has illegally seized since the February 2022 invasion, as Trump may reportedly be planning. Majorities in Sweden (57%), Denmark (53%) and the U.K. (51%), and a sizeable minority (43%) in Spain, said they would feel very or fairly negatively about such a deal, compared with only 37% in France and 31% in Germany and Italy. (The Guardian, 12.26.24)
• The State Department's Global Engagement Center, the highly touted nerve center for coordinating U.S. efforts to counter foreign disinformation—especially by Russia and China—shut down after becoming a lightning rod for conservative criticism. (USA Today, 12.27.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The Estlink 2 undersea power cable, which runs through the Baltic Sea between Estonia and Finland, malfunctioned and went offline on Dec. 25. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo says the outage will not impact public access to electricity. Reuters reported that Finnish authorities “boarded and took control of an oil tanker traveling from Russia,” believing its anchor may have damaged the power cable. (Meduza, 12.26.24)
  • Finland's national power grid operator (Fingrid) is seeking the formal seizure of the oil tanker. (RFE/RL, 01.03.25)
  • NATO has said it would bolster its presence in the Baltic Sea after undersea power lines and Internet cables were damaged by the suspected sabotage believed to be carried out by vessels belonging to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet.” (RFE/RL, 12.27.24)
  • Estonia said it would set aside €100 million ($103 million) for a new gas-fired power plant to boost energy security after repeated damage to subsea electricity connections. (Bloomberg, 01.03.25)
  • Russia has assembled a fleet of hundreds of vessels to covertly ship its oil. With so many ships at sea, the idea of using some to cause havoc may be proving irresistible to the Kremlin. (NYT, 12.28.24)
• Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said the guideline for NATO countries to spend at least 2% of their economic output on defense is “probably history.” “We know that we will have to spend more than 2%,” Mitsotakis said. (Bloomberg, 12.22.24)
• Russia’s military prepared detailed target lists for a potential war with Japan and South Korea that included nuclear power stations, according to secret files from 2013-2014 seen by the Financial Times. The strike plans, summarized in a leaked set of Russian military documents, cover 160 sites such as roads, bridges and factories, selected as targets to stop the “regrouping of troops in areas of operational purpose”. The target list for Japan and South Korea was contained in a presentation intended to explain the capabilities of the Kh-101 non-nuclear cruise missile. Experts who reviewed it for the FT said the contents suggested it was circulated in 2013 or 2014. A second presentation on Japan and South Korea offers a rare insight into Russia’s habit of regularly probing its neighbors’ air defenses. The report summarizes the mission of a pair of Tu-95 heavy bombers, sent to test the air defenses of Japan and South Korea on Feb. 24, 2014. The operation coincided with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and a joint U.S.-Korean military exercise, Foal Eagle 2014. (FT, 12.31.24)
• Three men have been charged with spying on U.S. military bases for Russia and plotting attacks on American personnel in retaliation for Western support of Ukraine, German prosecutors said. (Stripes.com, 12.31.24)

• A Russian influence network active in France and Germany during the Covid-19 pandemic was also deployed in the run-up to Romania’s recently cancelled election, according to documents seen by the Financial Times. (FT, 12.24.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping used his New Year's address on Dec. 31 to project confidence about the country's economic outlook and repeat threats about taking over Taiwan, as Beijing grapples with an ailing economy and the looming inauguration of a U.S. president set to take a hard line on China. Xi also used a New Year's greeting to Russian leader Vladimir Putin to emphasize the countries' close relationship. China and Russia have always walked "hand in hand," Xi said, and their friendship will only continue to "deepen," according to state media. (WP, 01.01.25)
• Russia faces increasing difficulty shipping commodities to China through its vast eastern rail network, a sign of the growing economic challenges stemming from war and sanctions, despite the Kremlin’s assurances that all is well. Russian Railways JSC—the state-owned carrier responsible for all rail transport throughout the country—last week approved a 30% cut in its investment program for next year amid soaring borrowing costs, TASS reported. (Bloomberg, 12.22.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• [When asked “Some are anticipating Oreshnik to take off and land] Putin said on Dec. 26: “You see, we always respond in kind. If certain weapons are used against us, we employ the same in return. For instance, they launched a strike by five to seven ATACMS systems. Did you hear the announcement made yesterday or the day before? The Russian Armed Forces responded with a comprehensive strike—240 or 221 strikes, something of that sort, using precision long-range weaponry.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.26.24)
• Lavrov told Russian TV on Dec. 25, 2024:
• “Recently, Pentagon generals have openly deliberated on the potential for "limited nuclear strikes" with the Russian Federation, with the intention to ensure they emerge victorious from such an "exchange." We directly inquired (since it was indeed a general who made the statement) about the meaning behind this. Their response was far from satisfactory, as they attempted to downplay the significance of such declarations, claiming they were purely theoretical. In practice, nothing of the sort was intended. But can such rhetoric be regarded as a serious expression of opinion from an official military department representative?” (RF MFA, 12.25.24)
• “In any event, we are not interested in escalating the issue of nuclear weapons usage risks. We firmly adhere to the principle I mentioned earlier: there can be no victors in a nuclear war… We trust that those with ears will listen, and those with minds will comprehend.” (RF MFA, 12.25.24)
• [When commenting on a statement by Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, who recently said that “the topic of arms control is a thing of the past] Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Kommersant: “Today, a deeply disturbing situation has developed, when after the destruction of a whole series of agreements, a poorly controlled environment has emerged and such conditions have arisen in the security sphere in which the implementation of some of the remaining agreements has become counterproductive for Russia… Gerasimov… of course had every reason to state that today the topic of arms control in relations between Russia and the United States and Russia and the West is becoming more of a part of history.” (Kommersant, 12.27.24)
• Ryabkov told Kommersant: “The objective reality is that the United States is actively moving towards deploying land-based INF missiles in Europe, and has already deployed them in the Asia-Pacific region… President Putin has repeatedly stated that the creation of additional missile threats for us and our allies will inevitably be followed by a proportionate response. It is on this principle that the joint decision of the Russian and Belarusian leadership regarding potential deployment schemes for the newest medium-range missile system "Oreshnik" is based.” (Kommersant, 12.27.24)
• Ryabkov cautioned Trump's incoming administration against resuming nuclear testing, saying Moscow would keep its own options open amid what he said was Washington's "extremely hostile" stance. (Reuters, 12.27.24)
• “Russia's unilateral moratorium on the deployment of land-based intermediate- and shorter-range missiles (INF) remains in effect… [however] it is obvious that, for example, our moratorium on the deployment of INF missiles is already practically unviable and will have to be abandoned,” Sergei Lavrov told Russian media. (RM, 12.29.24)

Counterterrorism:

• The Russian Embassy in the United States said that there were no Russians among the victims of the terrorist attack in New Orleans and expressed condolences to the families of the victims. Governments of other post-Soviet republics also expressed condolences. (RIA Novosti, 01.01.25, RM, 01.01.25)
• Russian authorities continue to establish a legal basis to remove the Taliban and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) from the Russian government’s official list of banned terrorist organizations. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Dec. 28 allowing the Russian government to remove organizations from Russia's list of terrorist organizations. Russian milbloggers noted that the decree will facilitate Russia's rapprochement with the Taliban. Putin's decree also establishes a legal basis for the Russian government to remove other organizations, including HTS, from its list of banned terrorist organizations. (ISW, 12.28.24)
• On Dec. 27 Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said that its agents thwarted a planned terrorist attack on a Moscow police station, killing two alleged Islamic State members during the operation. The FSB identified the two individuals as citizens of Central Asian countries and members of ISIS-K, a regional affiliate of the Islamic State primarily active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. (MT/AFP, 12.27.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• Three or four days before leaving Damascus on Dec. 8, Assad signaled to Moscow that he was willing to meet exiled political opposition in Geneva for talks—something he had long refused to do. But the message does not appear to have been passed on by the Russians. (FT, 12.21.24)
• A Russian merchant ship, the Ursa Major, which sank in the Mediterranean Sea on Dec. 23, was struck by a “targeted terrorist attack,” the vessel’s owner, the Oboronlogistka group, told RIA Novosti. (Meduza, 12.25.24)
  • The Norwegian vessel Oslo Carrier 3 refused to take aboard Russian sailors from the sinking cargo ship Ursa Major, according to the ship’s owner, Oboronlogistika. (Meduza, 12.27.24)
• On Dec. 29 Sergei Lavrov said “Undoubtedly, the change of power and the change in the situation "on the ground" are making certain adjustments to the Russian military presence in Syria. This is not only about preserving our bases or strongholds, but also about the conditions for their operation, maintenance and provision, interaction with the local side. These topics could become the subject of negotiations with the new Syrian leadership.” (RF MFA, 12.29.24)
• On Dec. 29 new Syrian de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa said he wants relations with Iran and Russia, but he insisted any ties must be based on mutual "respect." Russia and Iran were major allies of Syria under the regime of President Bashar al-Assad until the totalitarian leader was ousted by rebels in early December. The West is closely watching the new ruler's actions, including the depth of any future ties with Tehran and Moscow. "Syria cannot continue without relations with an important regional country like Iran," Sharaa told Al Arabiya in a wide-ranging interview on Dec. 29. (RFE/RL, 12.29.24)
• On Dec. 30 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga urged Syria’s newly installed leader Ahmed al-Sharaa to expel Russian forces from the country during a surprise visit to Damascus. The Ukrainians pledged strategic cooperation and humanitarian assistance as Ukraine moves to establish relations with Syria's new administration following the collapse of the previous Assad regime on Dec. 8. An initial 500 tons of wheat flour are set to arrive in Syria from Ukraine this week. Zelenskyy said Ukraine is interested in stabilizing the situation in Syria and believes it is essential for the country's security to remove any Russian presence from the country (BNE, 12.30.24, MT/AFP, FT, 12.30.24, RFE/RL, 12.23.24)
• On Jan. 3 Germany’s Annalena Baerbock and her French counterpart, Jean-Noël Barrot, were holding talks with Syria’s de-facto leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa. Baerbock said the EU wants to help Syria achieve “an inclusive, peaceful transfer of power” and with reconstruction efforts. She acknowledged it will be “a rocky road.” (Bloomberg, 01.03.25)
  • The European Union stepped up efforts to build ties with Syria’s new leaders and persuade them to reduce Russia’s influence over the war-ravaged country with the visit by the German and French foreign ministers to Damascus. (Bloomberg, 01.03.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• The U.N. General Assembly on Dec. 24 adopted the United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, a landmark global treaty aimed at strengthening international cooperation to combat cybercrime and protecting societies from digital threats. (U.N., 12.24.24)
•  On Dec. 28 The websites of Milan’s Linate and Malpensa airports were hit by a cyberattack, Corriere della Sera reported. The pro-Russian group NoName claimed responsibility for the action via a message on Telegram, according to the newspaper. Italy’s Postal Police’s cybercrime unit is working on the case to support affected targets and help with an investigation. (Bloomberg, 12.28.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Gazprom PJSC said revenue from natural-gas sales is expected to exceed its own forecasts in 2024. “Proceeds from gas sales will amount to 4.6 trillion rubles ($45.8 billion), which is 155 billion rubles more than envisioned in the original financial plan,” Deputy Chief Executive Officer Famil Sadygov said in a Telegram statement on Dec. 24. In 2024 Russia’s gas exports to the European region rose by more than 13% on the same period in 2023 to 29.7 billion cubic meters. (Bloomberg, 12.24.24)
• A December report from the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) concluded, “Although Russian fossil fuel exports to the West have decreased, glaring loopholes in the sanctions’ regime persist.” Nowhere are the failings more prominent than with liquified natural gas (LNG). In 2024, the EU imported a record 16.5 million metric tons of LNG from Russia, surpassing the 15.2 million in 2023. (FP, 01.03.25)
• On Dec. 22 Slovakia’s prime minister Robert Fico met Putin in Moscow to discuss energy supplies. The visit followed a tense meeting between Fico and Zelenskyy in Brussels to discuss Kyiv’s plans to stop the transit of Russian gas through its territory from the start of 2025. On Dec. 23 Zelenskyy accused Fico of wanting to "help" Putin earn money to fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. (FT, 12.22.24, RFE/RL, 12.23.24)
• On Dec. 27 Ukraine was reported to have received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas from the U.S.. The country’s largest private energy company, DTEK, received the shipment via the Mediterranean, with a vessel arriving at a Greek LNG terminal. Europe sources about 40 % of its LNG imports from the U.S., but none have ever been directly purchased by Ukraine before. (FT, 12.27.24)
  • DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, plans to bring two to three liquefied natural gas cargoes a month into Europe as it ramps up its new trading business. (Bloomberg, 12.31.24)
• On Jan. 1 Russian gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine stopped at 8:00 a.m. Moscow time, following the expiration of the transit contract, Russia’s state-owned energy company Gazprom announced. The pipeline was one of the last two routes still carrying Russian gas to Europe nearly three years into the full-scale war. EU countries will lose about 5% of gas imports in the middle of winter. The Turkey pipeline still transporting Russian gas to Europe contributes about 5% of the EU’s imports. (FT, 01.02.25, Bloomberg, 01.01.25, Meduza, 01.02.25)
  • Fico threatened to cut off back-up electricity supplies from Slovakia to Ukraine as retaliation while Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has sought to find a workaround to allow Russian gas imports via Ukraine. (FT, 01.02.25)
  • The end of Russian natural gas flows to Europe via Ukraine is likely to boost competition with Asia and prices for alternatives. Ukraine hopes increased supply of gas from the U.S. and other producers to Europe will make prices more comfortable, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Telegram post on Jan 1. (Bloomberg, 01.02.25)
  • On Jan. 1 Residents of the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria were left without centralized heating and hot water on after Russian gas shipments via Ukraine were halted, the local energy company Tirasteploenergo said. Transnistria halted almost all industrial activity except for food production, following the end of Russian gas flows through Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 01.03.25, MT/AFP, 01.01.25)
• India’s state oil refiners are finding it hard to buy the volume of Russian crude they need, Russia’s daily natural-gas flows to China via the Power of Siberia link set a new record on Dec. 20, according to energy giant Gazprom PJSC. While the producer didn’t specify the absolute figure for the daily gas supplies to the Asian nation, it said the flows exceeded its obligations under a contract with China National Petroleum Corp., in a Telegram statement. The latest flows beat the previous high reached on Dec. 7, it said. Russia earlier this month also raised gas deliveries to the daily equivalent of 38 billion cubic meters per year, the design capacity of the Power of Siberia, ahead of schedule. (Bloomberg, 12.21.24)

Climate change:

• 2024 was the warmest year on record in Moscow’s entire history of meteorological observations. The average annual air temperature reached 8.2°C (46.8°F). The hottest month was September, with an average temperature of 17.9°C (64.2°F), which is 5.7°C (10.3°F) above the norm. The same month also saw record sunshine, totaling 263 hours. (Meduza, 01.03.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• On Dec. 22 Trump suggested he’s open to meeting Putin. The Russian president offered to hold talks with Trump, saying, “I’ll be ready to meet if he wants.” Speaking at his annual news conference, Putin said he doesn’t know when they’ll meet because Trump “doesn’t say anything about it” and he hasn’t spoken to the former and future president in more than four years. (Bloomberg, 12.22.24)
  • On Dec. 22 The Kremlin said there are currently no plans for Putin to meet Trump. (RFE/RL, 12.23.24)
  • Lavrov said on Dec. 25: “Everyone thinks the arrival of the Trump Administration will change things. There is much speculation about this going on. As I earlier mentioned, we have no illusions… U.S. doctrinal documents describe our country as an adversary that needs to be 'strategically defeated.'” (RF MFA’s official web site, 12.25.24)
• On Dec. 30 Lavrov said: “As for the future of Russian-U.S. relations, we are ready to renew the political dialogue which Washington terminated after the start of the special military operation, if the United States is ready for this. Since it was the Americans who cut it off, it is for them to make the first move.” (RF MFA/TASS, 12.30.24)
• The United States on Dec. 31 imposed sanctions on entities in Iran and Russia that it accused of attempting to “stoke socio-political tensions” through disinformation campaigns during the 2024 U.S. elections. The U.S. Treasury Department said its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on a subsidiary of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and an organization affiliated with the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU). (RFE/RL, 12.31.24)
• On Dec. 24 A Russian court sentenced a U.S. citizen to 15 years in a high-security prison for espionage, state media outlets reported, prompting speculation that the Kremlin might seek to use him as leverage in negotiations for a future prisoner swap. The man, Eugene Spector, was already serving a three-and-a-half-year sentence for a 2021 bribery conviction when he was charged with spying. (NYT, 12.24.24, Meduza, 12.27.24)
• Marc Fogel, an American teacher serving a 14-year prison sentence in Russia, has been designated by the U.S. government as wrongfully detained, the State Department said. He was convicted of drug smuggling and sentenced in 2022 to 14 years in prison by the same court that handled the case of Brittney Griner. (NYT, 12.29.24)
• A Russian Il-96 that has been previously used for trips by top Russian officials took someone to Washington DC via NYC on Dec. 26–28 and back, according to FlightRadar cited by Baza. (RM, 12.25.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• According to 35% of respondents to Levada Center’s end of the year poll, the most important event of 2024 was the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk region. Three out of ten (31%) mentioned the Russian presidential elections, the same number mentioned the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow (31%), as well as the Oreshnik missile strike on Yuzhmash (30%). They also mentioned the U.S. presidential elections (21%), the rise in interest rates, the rise in prices, housing and communal services tariffs, the dollar exchange rate (21%), and drone attacks on Russian territory (18%). In addition, the most important events of the outgoing year included the BRICS summit (16%), the continuation of the special operation (13%), V. Putin's speeches (13%), the war in Syria (12%). (Levada, 12.23.24)
• The Russian government has approved a list of regions and territories where cryptocurrency mining will be prohibited, TASS reported on Dec. 24, citing a government decree. The ban, which will take effect on Jan. 1, 2025, and remain in place until March 15, 2031, applies to Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, North Ossetia, and Chechnya, as well as occupied Ukrainian territories: the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics,” and the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. (Meduza, 12.24.24)
• President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving a new strategy for combating extremism: Among other things, the new strategy provides for keeping records of Russians who leave the country "to study in educational centers of unfriendly states." (Kommersant, 12.28.24)
• Speaking on the 25th anniversary of his rule, Putin delivered an upbeat and vague New Year's Eve message that did not address casualties in Ukraine or rising inflation at home. ''We are certain that everything will be fine,'' he said. Putin also praised his country's achievements in a New Year's Eve speech Dec. 31, saying Russians should be "proud" of what Russia had done during his quarter century in power. He also officially declared 2025 the "Year of the Defender of the Fatherland.” (MT/AFP, 12.31.24, NYT, 12.31.24, ISW, 12.31.24)
• Russian authorities designated a record 65 organizations as “undesirable” in 2024, the independent news website Vyorstka reported. (MT/AFP, 12.24.24)
• Russia’s Interior Ministry added exiled opposition figure Ilya Yashin to its list of wanted persons. (MT/AFP, 12.25.24)
• Russia’s state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring added exiled Russian-Canadian activist Pyotr Verzilov to the country’s list of “terrorists and extremists,” state media reported. (MT/AFP, 12.24.24)
• A Russian military court sentenced Russian comedian and ex-television host Tatyana Lazareva to nearly seven years in prison in absentia for supporting Ukrainian drone attacks against Russia. (MT/AFP, 12.24.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• In 2024, Russian military courts heard 10,308 criminal cases on refusal to serve in the armed forces, which is almost twice as many as the year before (5,517). (Media Zone, 12.27.24)
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has signed a decree barring prisoners who sign contracts with Russia’s Defense Ministry from receiving sign-on bonuses. (Meduza, 01.02.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Putin appointed Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to head the newly established Scientific Expert Council of the Russian Security Council. Putin issued a decree on Dec. 27 establishing the Scientific Expert Council of the Russian Security Council and specified that Shoigu will chair the council. (ISW, 12.27.24) Of Russia’s renowned nuclear experts the new body’s members include former deputy defense minister of Russia and the country’s deepest thinker on strategic stability Andrei Kokoshin. The body doesn’t include Sergei Karaganov who has reportedly contributed to discussions on recent liberalization of Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine and has been very outspoken on the issue. 
• Between Dec. 18 and Dec. 26 Russian law enforcement authorities arrested 44 people in connection with a surge of arson and bombing attempts targeting public buildings across the country. (MT/AFP, 12.26.24)
• A Russian man named Andrei Kotov, who had been arrested in October for operating a travel agency for gay customers, was found dead in his Moscow cell while in pretrial detention, the OVD-Info rights group said on Dec. 29. (RFE/RL, 12.29.24)

• At least 63 kilometers of coastline in Russia's southern region of Kuban has been covered by heavy fuel oil from two oil tankers that ran aground in the ecologically sensitive waters off Ukraine's Moscow-annexed Crimean Black Sea coast. The Emergency Situations Ministry reported on Dec. 31 that while almost 70,000 tons of contaminated sand and soil were collected from the coast, new pockets of fuel oil have been found. (RFE/RL, 12.31.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Romania’s ruling coalition agreed to hold a planned rerun of the presidential elections on March 23 and a second round on April 6, Digi 24 reported, citing unidentified people with knowledge of the decision. Romania’s top court decided to cancel a presidential ballot after a first round led to the surprise win of a pro-Russian candidate and suspicion of Kremlin meddling. (Bloomberg, 12.28.24)
• Putin made 11 visits to other countries last year compared to six in 2023. In 2024, the Russian leader visited China, North Korea, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. He traveled to Kazakhstan and Belarus twice. (TASS, 01.02.25)
• Putin updated the list of world leaders he sent holiday greetings to this year, adding four new leaders while removing two others, according to Agentstvo Media. The 26 figures who received his New Year wishes included the leaders of BRICS countries as well as of Myanmar, North Korea, and Mongolia. Meanwhile, the leaders of Syria and the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia were dropped from the list. As in the previous two years, there were almost no Western leaders on the list—messages were sent only to the President of Serbia and the Prime Minister of Hungary. Putin also congratulated Pope Francis. (Meduza, TASS, 12.30.24) In spite of the tough language by Aliyev on the alleged shooting down of an Azeri airliner by a Russian missile, Putin congratulated him with the New Year. In contrast, leader of Abkhazia—where locals have recently rejected a Russian investment bill—was dropped from the list of leaders Putin congratulates on this occasion.
• The flow of foreign tourists to Russia by the end of 2024 will soar by 95% compared to 2023 and will amount to approximately 2.5 million trips, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR) announced. Tourists from China accounted for about 83% of the tourist traffic (about 600,000). (TASS, 12.27.24)
• What do you expect was the U.K.’s bestselling Penguin Classic title of 2024? In most years, the correct answer would be a predictable one: Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice, or George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four. In 2024, however, one surprising title has leapfrogged all the others to become Penguin’s top-selling classic of the year: Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s 1848 novella White Nights, which has shifted more than 50,000 copies since last January. (FT, 12.30.24)

Ukraine:

• On Dec. 23 Ukrainian anti-corruption activists were reported to be calling for a criminal investigation into Ukraine's top defense institutions for alleged state treason, over accusations that tens of thousands of Ukrainian-produced mortar rounds critical to the country's defense against Russian troops are failing to fire or firing incorrectly. The Anti-Corruption Action Center, filed a petition to Ukraine's domestic security service, the SBU, calling for an investigation of officials at the country's Defense and Strategic Industries ministries as well as Ukroboronprom, the state defense industry conglomerate. Officials in these government bodies “committed a series of acts” that prevented the mortar rounds from being used for their intended purpose, damaging “Ukraine’s defense capability,” the center said in its petition. Vitaliy Shabunin, head of the center's board, posted the petition Dec. 23 on Facebook. He also posted another one to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, an independent government agency tasked with battling graft, for the alleged overpayment of some $90 million to a Polish firm for weapons. Last month, Ukrainian media outlets reported that a significant portion of 120mm mortar rounds and a smaller number of 82mm shells that had recently arrived at the front line were defective. Soldiers in one unit said that only one 120mm round out of every 10 exploded successfully, according to local media. (WP, 12.23.24)
• Kyivstar PJSC, Ukraine’s largest mobile operator, signed a deal with Elon Musk’s Starlink to introduce satellite-powered cellular service in the war-torn country in a bid to place telecom infrastructure beyond the reach of Russian attacks. The deal will allow Kyivstar customers to use space-based connectivity when the terrestrial network is unable to service an area, the Ukrainian company said in a statement on Dec. 30. (Bloomberg, 12.30.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• An Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) Embraer plane crashed in western Kazakhstan while on its way from Baku to Grozny on Dec. 25, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. Russian air defense forces fired a surface-to-air missile at the AZAL flight amid increased drone activity in Grozny. The missile exploded near the plane, damaging its fuselage. (Meduza, 12.26.24, FT, 12.27.24)
  • On Dec. 26 a U.S. official was reported to have said there were early indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system might have struck the plane. If this was the case, the incident would further underscore Moscow’s recklessness since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the official added. (FT, 12.26.24)
  • On Dec. 27 John Kirby, the U.S. National Security Council spokesperson, said there were “early indications” that the plane had been hit by Russian air defenses. Rashad Nabiyev, Azerbaijan’s transport minister, said on the same day that the crash had been caused by a weapon impact. (FT, 12.28.24)
  • On Dec. 28 Putin apologized to Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev for what he termed a "tragic incident.” He said Russia had opened a criminal investigation into the crash, according to the Kremlin, and was hosting Azerbaijani investigators in Grozny. (FT, 12.28.24, NYT, 12.28.24)
  • On Dec. 29 President Ilham Aliyev said in an interview with Azerbaijan’s national broadcaster that the Dec. 28 vague apology issued by Putin of Russia a day earlier would not suffice to preserve friendly relations between the two former Soviet states. “We can clearly say today that the plane was shot down by Russia,” Mr. Aliyev said in the interview, according to a summary published in English by Azerbaijan’s state news agency. “First, the Russian side must apologize to Azerbaijan. Second, it must acknowledge its guilt. Third, those responsible must be punished.” Mr. Aliyev added that Moscow had met only the first condition thus far. “Unfortunately, for the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except for some absurd theories,” Mr. Aliyev said. (NYT, 12.29.24) Aliyev's choice of diktat rhetoric to convey his demand for Russia the day after Putin's vague apology over downing of the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet is notable. Aliyev clearly has leverage vis-à-vis Putin and is using it publicly.
• Former soccer player Mikheil Kavelashvili was formally inaugurated as president of Georgia on Sunday, cementing the ruling party's grip in what the opposition calls a blow to the country’s EU aspirations and a victory for former imperial ruler Russia. (Bloomberg, 12.30.24)
• The United States has imposed sanctions on Georgia's former prime minister and billionaire founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, accusing him of undermining the country’s democratic institutions and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. (BNE, 12.28.24)
• Russian authorities have started delivering “humanitarian” electricity to the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia to alleviate a severe energy crisis. (MT/AFP, 12.23.24)
• There are no more Russian guards at Armenia’s Agarak checkpoint at its border with Iran. On Dec. 30, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the checkpoint is now under Armenia’s exclusive control, ending a border arrangement with Russia that dated back to the USSR’s disintegration in 1991. (Meduza, 01.03.25)
• Poland aims to complete a border wall and seal off its border with Belarus by next summer, in order to stop an influx of migrants Warsaw describes as Russia’s hybrid war. The additional infrastructure works along its 400 kilometer eastern border that the government of Donald Tusk announced earlier this year are on track to be completed by mid-2025, said Maciej Duszczyk, Poland’s deputy minister for migration. Once the reinforcements are complete, “this will be as close to 100% [border] security as is possible,” he said. (FT, 12.29.24)
• On Dec. 24 Moldova's pro-Western president, Maia Sandu, was sworn in for a second term in what analysts call a critical milestone for the integration of one of Europe's poorest countries into the European Union. (RFE/RL, 12.24.24)
• Amid rising expectations for cease-fire talks over Ukraine, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, the autocratic leader of the former Soviet republic of Belarus and an ardent backer of Russia in its war against Ukraine, appears to also be trying to reboot his relations with the West, analysts say. In recent months, he has pardoned more than 200 people jailed for participating in antigovernment protests in 2020, according to Viasna, a Belarusian human rights group in exile. Many analysts see that as a gesture aimed at persuading the West to relax sanctions. (NYT, 12.24.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, the acting head of the German Marshall Fund, a U.S.-based think-tank, says Trump’s team “are totally obsessed with the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. They don’t want Ukraine to become Trump’s Afghanistan. That’s the slogan. And that gives you already the framework, the mindset within which Trump’s policy on Ukraine is actually being nourished and developed right now.” (FT, 12.21.24)
• On Dec. 21 Finland’s Alexander Stubb was quoted as saying that the world has arrived at a potential turning point. “This is either the Yalta or the Helsinki moment,” he said. (FT, 12.21.24)
• A book published in 2024 by the German commentator Wolfgang Münchau required no more than two syllables to sum up the results of this procrastination: ''Kaput.'' His list of causes for the downturn is familiar: the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which together spurred a global price fever and cut off the usual source of energy on which German factories ran—an inflationary spiral compounded by America's trade wars. (NYT, 12.27.24)

Russia's Quarterly GDP Growth (Y/Y). (Bell, 12.20.24)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka.