Russia in Review, Dec. 15-22, 2017

Dear readers: Please be advised that the Russia in Review news digest will not come out on Dec. 29 due to Harvard’s winter holidays. We look forward to resuming publication on Jan. 5 and wish you all the best in the New Year!

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • The new U.S. national security strategy says: “U.S. interests in the region (South and Central Asia) include countering terrorist threats that impact the security of the U.S.  homeland and our allies, preventing cross-border  terrorism that raises the prospect of military and  nuclear tensions, and preventing nuclear weapons, technology, and materials from falling into  the hands of terrorists.”  (Russia Matters, 12.19.17)
  • Russia’s first new floating nuclear power plant will be fueled at Atomflot, Russia’s nuclear icebreaker port in Murmansk, in the autumn of 2018.  (Bellona, 12.19.17)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • The U.N. security council imposed sanctions on North Korea to capt its crude oil imports at 4 million barrels a year and limits its imports of refined oil products to 500,000 barrels a year. That would be a nearly 90 percent in imported fuels. The sanctions also prohibit the export of food products, machinery, electrical equipment, earth and stones, wood and vessels from North Korea. (CBS, 12.22.17)
  • Russia has activated three new early-warning missile attack radars covering its southeastern frontiers, including its border with North Korea, after repeated missile tests by Pyongyang have raised fears of impending conflict. (Newsweek, 12.20.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump says he has sought Russia's help in resolving the crisis over North Korea's nuclear weapons program but is not satisfied with Russia's efforts. Nonetheless, Trump said he’d had a "great" phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin late on Dec. 14 in which they discussed the North Korean crisis. The Kremlin said Trump had initiated the phone call with Putin. (RFE/RL, 12.16.17)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley has urged the United Nations Security Council to punish Iran for what she called "destabilizing behavior" and "dangerous violations" of U.N. arms embargoes, but Russia ruled out sanctions and said dialogue is needed. Haley last week presented reporters in Washington with what she called "undeniable evidence" that Iran had supplied missiles for two previous Huthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and said she would bring the matter before the U.N. (RFE/RL, 12.20.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • A new U.S. national security strategy made public Dec. 18 presents Russia and China as competitors that want to realign global power in their interests, potentially threatening the United States. The strategy says the Kremlin is developing new military systems, cyber capabilities and subversive tactics, including the use of paid social-media actors, to interfere in the internal political affairs of other nations. Russia's broader calculation is that it can engage in such activities without risk of a military confrontation, but actions have led to an increased risk of a military conflict as a result of Russian miscalculation, according to the strategy. (The Washington Post, 12.18.17, Wall Street Journal, 12.18.17)
  • The Kremlin dismissed the new U.S. national security strategy as imperialist on Dec. 19, but welcomed Washington’s willingness to cooperate in some areas. "Of course, we cannot agree with the view of our country as a threat to U.S. national security," Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said in comments carried by TASS. "That said, there are some modest positive moments, including in particular the readiness to cooperate in fields that correlate to American interests." (Reuters, 12.19.17, RFE/RL, 12.19.17)
  • The U.S. is planning to spend more than $200 million to repair and build U.S. military structures and installations on air bases that dot much of Eastern Europe, part of an ongoing initiative to deter Russian aggression. (Air Force Times, 12.17.17)
  • Russian submarine activity is at its highest levels since the cold war, top NATO officials have warned. (Financial Times, 12.22.17)
  • See also “Nuclear arms control” section below.

Missile defense:

  • Congress gave final approval on Dec. 21 to stopgap legislation to keep the government funded until Jan. 19. However, House conservatives failed in their bid to attach a major defense spending increase that would have funded the Pentagon through September, but in a move to attract support a $4.7 billion increase was included to be used for missile defense and ship repair. (New York Times, 12.21.17, Reuters, 12.21.17)

Nuclear arms control:

  • The NATO secretary-general has supported a U.S. move to start research into building missiles banned by the INF Treaty, a plan meant to pressure Russia to abandon what the U.S. says is its development of such weapons. (Wall Street Journal, 12.15.17)
  • The United States on Dec. 19 announced new licensing and export restrictions on Russian missile designer Novator and a military research company, charging both with involvement in a missile that Washington says violates the INF treaty. (RFE/RL, 12.19.17)

Counter-terrorism:

  • Putin called Trump on Dec. 17 to thank him for a CIA tip that the Kremlin said had helped prevent terror attacks in St. Petersburg last weekend. The Kremlin's account of the call was Russia's first public assertion that information from the U.S. has helped prevent an attack. Putin also assured Trump that if Russian intelligence agencies obtain any information about potential terror threats against the U.S. and its citizens, they will immediately share it with their U.S. counterparts. (AP, 12.20.17, New York Times, 12.17.17)
  • Trump mentioned the call on Dec. 18 when presenting his new security strategy—which portrays Moscow as a dangerous rival—and said that the intelligence passed on to Russian authorities by the CIA foiled a terrorist attack that could have killed thousands of people. ''That's a great thing,'' he said, ''and the way it's supposed to work.'' (New York Times, 12.18.17)
  • Putin said Dec. 20 Russia would continue working to "resolutely neutralize hotbeds of international terrorism" following its campaign in Syria. "It's necessary to strengthen both external and internal security contours protecting Russia from terrorism, conduct work to uproot the criminals' financial and recruitment networks, counter attempts by the extremists and the radicals to influence the young and spread the ideology of hatred, religious intolerance and aggressive nationalism," he said. He praised Russia's intelligence and security agencies for preventing "over 60 terrorist crimes," but mentioned no specifics. (AP, 12.20.17)
  • When asked whether his service continues to exchange information with U.S. secret services, director of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov chose not to mention the U.S. in his answer. Rather, he said, the FSB is maintaining “official contacts” with the special services of 104 countries. He also said his service prevented 23 terrorist attacks in 2017, claiming that “destruction of Russia remains an idée fixe for some.” (Russia Matters. 12.19.17)
  • Russian authorities say that five alleged militants have been killed in the North Caucasus region of Karachayevo-Cherkessia. (RFE/RL, 12.18.17)

Conflict in Syria:

  • French President Emmanuel Macron said that the “Astana process” promoted by Russia, Iran and Turkey isn’t inclusive and that the U.S., France and their allies have done most of the work to defeat Islamic State, while Russia and Syria fought largely against more moderate forces. (Bloomberg, 12.19.17)
  • Russia will be the only country to take part in rebuilding Syrian energy facilities, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said Dec. 18, after holding talks in Syria with Assad. (Reuters, 12.18.17)
  • The U.N. Security Council approved the delivery of humanitarian aid across borders and conflict lines in Syria for another year on Dec. 19, with Russia urging a gradual end to the program that has helped millions of people in rebel-held areas. (AP, 12.19.17)
  • A Russian military contractor in Syria taken hostage by Islamic State, has died, according to the man’s family. Grigory Tsurkan died of wounds he sustained in captivity, a representative of the Wagner private military group reportedly told his mother. A second hostage, Roman Zabolotny, was executed by militants, the Wagner representative said. (The Moscow Times, 12.18.17)
  • Assad has called U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters "traitors," according to an online statement from his office on Dec. 18. He spoke during a meeting with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin at Hemeimeem air base, the center of Russia's military campaign in support of government forces. (RFE/RL, 12.18.17)

Cyber security:

  • The Associated Press found that the hacking group known as Fancy Bear has targeted at least 200 journalists, publishers and bloggers, beginning as early as mid-2014 and continuing as recently as a few months ago. (AP, 12.22.17)
  • Russia’s tactic of filing competing extradition requests has in several instances prevented Russians suspected as computer criminals from being deported to the United States while detained in Europe. The tactic has raised suspicions that the Russian authorities are more interested in derailing American investigations and possibly protecting criminals they find useful than they are in fighting cybercrime. (New York Times, 12.20.17)
  • Kaspersky Lab on Dec. 18 offered a strident critique of the Trump administration's ban on federal agencies using its software products, claiming in a lawsuit that the decision had been based on uncorroborated reports and rumors about its ties to the Kremlin, had violated its rights and had “caused undue damage to both the company's reputation in the IT security industry and its sales in the U.S." (The Boston Globe, 12.18.17)

Elections interference:

  • White House lawyers were expected to meet with special counsel Robert Mueller's office late this week seeking good news: that his sprawling investigation's focus on President Trump will soon end and their client will be cleared. But people familiar with the probe say that such assurances are unlikely and that the meeting could trigger a new, more contentious phase between the special counsel and a frustrated president, according to administration officials and advisers close to Trump. (The Washington Post, 12.19.17)
  • Trump on Dec. 17 sought to douse speculation that he may fire Mueller amid an intensifying campaign by Trump allies to attack the wide-ranging Russia investigation as improper and politically motivated. The president's comments came a day after a lawyer representing his transition team accused Mueller of wrongfully obtaining thousands of emails sent and received by Trump officials before the start of his administration. “My people are very upset about it,” Trump told reporters of the emails. “I can’t imagine there’s anything on ’em, frankly, because, as we said, there’s no collusion.” (The Washington Post, 12.17.17, Financial Times, 12.17.17)
  • An FBI agent's reference to "an insurance policy" in a much-debated August 2016 text message was meant to convey that the bureau needed to aggressively investigate allegations of collusion between Donald Trump's campaign and Russia, according to people familiar with his account. The agent didn't intend to suggest a secret plan to harm Trump. (Wall Street Journal, 12.19.17)
  • Mueller is looking into a U.S.-based foundation linked to former Soviet intelligence officer Rinat Akhmetshin, which said it aimed “to help restart American adoption of Russian children,” but also offers a window into Russian efforts to influence U.S. politics before the 2016 presidential election. (Bloomberg, 12.21.17)
  • U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said the administration is “fully cooperating” with Mueller’s probe. Pence, speaking to reporters during an unannounced visit to Afghanistan, didn’t directly answer whether he would agree to be interviewed by Mueller’s team if asked. (Bloomberg, 12.21.17)
  • Republican lawmakers' sustained attacks on the FBI and Mueller in recent weeks have raised questions about whether the White House has coordinated or influenced the effort. A group of House Republicans has gathered secretly for weeks in the Capitol in an effort to build a case that senior leaders of the Justice Department and FBI improperly—and perhaps criminally—mishandled the contents of a dossier that describes alleged ties between Trump and Russia. (Business Insider, 12.21.17, Politico, 12.20.17)
  • Trump escalated his criticism of the FBI on Dec. 15 over its investigation: “It's a shame what's happened with the FBI,” he said before departing for an event at an FBI academy. “It's a very sad thing to watch.” (New York Times, 12.15.17)
  • The White House turned over records this fall to special counsel Robert Mueller that indicate that Don McGahn, the White House counsel, had concerns that Michael Flynn, then the president’s national security advisor, had possibly violated either one or both laws at the time, according to two of the sources. (Foreign Policy, 12.20.17)
  • Deutsche Bank AG has been asked by U.S. authorities to hand over information about transactions that could be linked to Michael Flynn or entities connected to him, according to people familiar with the matter. (Wall Street Journal, 12.16.17)
  • Jill Stein, the Green Party's 2016 presidential nominee, says she's cooperating with a request for documents from a U.S. Senate committee investigating Russian meddling in the election. Stein drew attention after attending a December 2015 RT gala event in Moscow where she sat at Putin’s table, as did Michael Flynn. (The Boston Globe, 12.19.17, New York Times, 12.19.17)
  • A U.S. federal judge on Dec. 15 said a bail package has been put together that would release Manafort from home confinement in his condominium in Virginia and allow him to reside at his house in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., but under a nightly curfew and on GPS monitoring. Manafort would like to spend the Christmas holiday at his estate in Bridgehampton, New York, according to a document filed by his legal team on Dec. 18. (The Washington Post, 12.15.17, Bloomberg, 12.18.17)
  • White House national security adviser H.R. McMaster says Western countries need to counter Russia's “destabilizing behavior,” saying that Moscow is running "a very sophisticated campaign of subversion" to undermine free and open societies. (RFE/RL, 12.19.17)
  • U.K. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said Dec. 22 that Russia had “not successfully” interfered in British elections, during a tense press conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow. Johnson was countering Lavrov’s claim that Johnson had said Russia had not meddled in U.K. politics.  (Financial Times, 12.22.17)
  • Russia is attempting to "sow dissension" and undermine democracy in Britain, France and other Western nations using propaganda, subversion and cyberattacks, Britain's national security adviser Mark Sedwill told a parliamentary committee on Dec. 18. (RFE/RL, 12.19.17)
  • An academic study by the Oxford Internet Institute released Dec. 19 casts doubt on speculation that Russia might have exploited social media to try to influence Britain's 2016 referendum to leave the European Union. (New York Times, 12.19.17, Financial Times, 12.19.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Rosneft has said it will increase annual production by 30 million metric tons of oil equivalent by 2022, net of acquisitions, under a new five-year strategy, as the Russian state-owned oil company said it had begun exploratory drilling in the Black Sea. (Financial Times, 12.18.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • The United States on Dec. 20 imposed sanctions on five Russians, including Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, under the Magnitsky Act, which has been a major irritant between Washington and Moscow. Two days later, the U.S. also sanctioned Artem Chaika, son of Russia's Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika. The U.S. says the younger man used his father's powerful position to unfairly win state-owned assets and contracts; the elder Chaika has appeared possibly linked to alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election. Treasury also targeted the “‘Thieves-in-Law’ Eurasian Transnational Criminal Organization,” which includes some of the Russian-speaking world’s most storied underworld figures, including “Little Taiwanese” and “Shakro the Young.” (AP, 12.20.17, RFE/RL, 12.20.17, Wall Street Journal, 12.22.17, Russia Matters, 12.22.17)
  • In a new survey by the Levada Center, 60 percent of respondents said they had a negative view of the U.S., while less than 50 percent shared that view in January. Fifty-four percent of respondents said they viewed the EU in a negative light, compared to 47 percent in January. Meanwhile, 68 percent of Russians say they are not worried about Western sanctions against the country.  (The Moscow Times, 12.18.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • Vladimir Putin has kicked off his reelection campaign by calling for the protection of Russia's "freedom" and "stability," suggesting the country needs to ward off influence from abroad and attempts by the domestic opposition to shake up politics. Russia's presidential campaign officially campaign began on Dec. 18. Rather than try to tap into the hopes of a younger generation eager for change, the Russian leader is turning to the past, reminding Russians of how bad things were before he came to power. (RFE/RL, 12.19.17, 12.18.17, Financial Times, 12.19.17)
  • In his second Kremlin meeting with top Russian businessmen in the past few months, Putin said Dec. 21 that Russia will issue foreign-currency bonds next year to help wealthy local investors repatriate capital as concerns over Western sanctions grow. Russia is also likely to offer another tax amnesty next year to stimulate capital repatriation and conditions will be similar to the one offered in 2016, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. (Bloomberg, 12.22.17)
  • The Sistema conglomerate will pay 100 billion rubles ($1.7 billion) to resolve a dispute with Russia's largest oil producer Rosneft over Bashneft oil company under a settlement announced by both companies on Dec.22. The possibility of such an amicable agreement was a topic of Putin’s informal Dec. 21 meeting with businessmen, the Kremlin said Dec. 22. (Reuters, 12.22.17, Reuters, 12.22.17)
  • Rosnefthas increased its investment in Venezuela and reaffirmed its commitment to Kurdistan as it pushes ahead with its biggest international production goals in spite of their political instability. (Financial Times, 12.20.17)
  • The assembly of the reactor of Rostov 4 has been completed, Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom said. (World Nuclear News, 12.20.17)
  • Russian authorities have responded to critics of Rosatom, the Kremlin-owned nuclear corporation, with tough tactics—including aggressive prosecutions, raids and smear campaigns—and in recent years, they’ve employed similar measures against other environmental groups. (Newsweek, 12.21.17)
  • The word "Russia" will appear on the Olympic uniforms worn by the athletes granted an exemption from the country's doping ban at the Pyeongchang Games. A final decision on whether Russian athletes can compete at the upcoming Winter Paralympics will be made in January. On Dec. 22 the IOC said it has banned 11 Russian athletes for life for doping at the 2014 Sochi Winter Games. (AP, 12.20.17, RFE/RL, 12.20.17, RFE/RL, 12.22.17)

Defense and aerospace:

  • No significant developments.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • In a Kremlin speech marking the 100th anniversary of the creation of the Bolshevik secret police, Putin on Dec. 20 praised Russian security agencies for "outfoxing foreign intelligence services… It's necessary to put up a reliable barrier against foreign interference in our social and political life, stop the activities by foreign secret services who have been trying to step up their operations in Russia," he said, without naming any specific country. (AP, 12.20.17)
  • Russia’s Federal Security Service or FSB secret police—one of the successors of the Soviet-era KGB—are starting to develop their own unmanned aerial vehicles to gather intelligence. (The National Interest, 12.19.17)
  • A journalist with the independent Russian online media outlet Kavkazsky Uzel (Caucasus Knot) says he is recovering after being shot in a Dec. 21 attack he linked to his reporting. (RFE/RL, 12.22.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Boris Johnson became the first U.K. foreign secretary to visit Russia in more than five years, holding a 90-minute closed-door meeting with Lavrov. In a press conference Dec. 22 Johnson acknowledged that “things are not easy between us at the moment,” but both men said they wanted to improve contacts between London and Moscow on issues such as counter-terrorism and the North Korean nuclear program. Johnson also laid flowers at the spot near the Kremlin where Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov was gunned down in 2015.(Financial Times, 12.22.17, Russia Matters, 12.22.17)
  • Minutes after it began broadcasting on the night of Dec. 18, the new television channel RT France took aim at the country and its president, Emmanuel Macron. (New York Times, 12.19.17)
  • Putin has held talks in Moscow with his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vucic. Serbia is negotiating the purchase of military helicopters from Russia. (RFE/RL, 12.19.17, RFE/RL, 12.22.17)
  • Russia and Saudi Arabia are finalizing the details of a potential sale of Moscow’s powerful S-400 air defense system to Riyadh. (The National Interest, 12.21.17)
  • Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman is on course to become part-owner of a UK gas field two years after he was ordered by the British government to sell his North Sea assets. (Financial Times, 12.21.17)
  • A British investment group, Lehram Capital Investments, has demanded $500 million from Russia and accused the country of state-sponsored corporate theft in a battle for control of a Siberian coal mine. (Financial Times, 12.19.17)
  • Russian state public-health watchdog partially lifted a ban on Baltic fish products that was introduced in mid-2015. (RFE/RL, 12.18.17)
  • Russia is holding Norwegian man Frode Berg on suspicion of spying after he allegedly received classified documents from a Russian man who is also under arrest, an official said on Dec. 19. (RFE/RL, 12.19.17)

China:

  • No significant developments.

Ukraine:

  • The Trump administration has approved the largest U.S. commercial sale of lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine since 2014, authorizing the export of Model M107A1 Sniper Systems, ammunition and associated parts and accessories to Ukraine, a sale valued at $41.5 million. (The Washington Post, 12.20.17)
  • The war in rebel-held eastern Ukraine has escalated sharply this week, with the heaviest fighting in nearly a year, European observers and Western diplomats reported Dec. 20. The OSCE recorded 16,000 ceasefire violations between Dec. 11 and Dec. 17, a 35 percent increase on the week before. U.S. special envoy for the Ukraine conflict Kurt Volker has said 2017 was the deadliest year in the region since the outbreak of violence three years ago, and warned that hostilities are again ratcheting up. (Reuters, 12.19.17, RFE/RL, 12.19.17, New York Times, 12.20.17)
  • Ukraine on Dec. 20 criticized Russia's decision to withdraw its military observers from a joint group monitoring the truce in eastern Ukraine, saying it could fuel hostilities. Russia announced the move earlier this week, saying that Ukraine was obstructing Russian officers' work and recently introduced new demands that made their further involvement in the group impossible. (AP, 12.20.17)
  • The U.N. General Assembly has approved a resolution strongly condemning human rights violations in Russian-annexed Crimea and referring to Russia as an "occupying power" there. (RFE/RL, 12.20.17)
  • Stanislav Yezhov, an aide to Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman has been detained on suspicion of being an agent of Russia's Federal Security Service.   (RFE/RL, 12.21.17, RM, 12.21.17)
  • The High Court of London has granted an order to freeze more than $2.5 billion of “worldwide” assets belonging to Ukrainian oligarchs Igor Kolomoisky and Gennady Bogolyubov. The court ruled on Dec. 19 in favor of PrivatBank, the country’s largest commercial lender, which was nationalized last year in an effort by officials to prevent its financial collapse. (Financial Times, 12.20.17)
  • Police and protesters have clashed in central Kiev as several thousand people took to the streets of the Ukrainian capital to call for the impeachment of President Petro Poroshenko and the resignation of the country's top prosecutor. (RFE/RL, 12.17.17)
  • Chinese Vice Premier Ma Kai visited Kiev this month to announce a host of new infrastructure projects and investments in Ukraine, underscoring a burgeoning economic relationship between the two countries that could nudge Kiev away from the West—a scenario that would ultimately benefit Moscow, some say. (Newsweek, 12.19.17)
  • Courts in Russia-controlled Crimea on Dec. 18 fined dozens of Crimean Tatars over single-person demonstrations, in a move which Amnesty International called "a brazen crackdown." Also, the top court in Crimea region has upheld a separatism conviction against journalist Mykola Semena in a case that has been criticized by media freedom advocates and Western governments. (RFE/RL, 12.18.17, RFE/RL, 12.18.17)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • A new batch of Russian armaments, military and military-technical equipment—including tanks, helicopters, howitzers and small arms—was delivered to Tajikistan’s Armed Forces on Dec. 19 with the stated aim of protecting the border with Afghanistan. Tajikistan has received $122 million worth of Russian military products this year. (TASS, 12.19.17)
  • Moldova has recalled its envoy to Russia for “an indefinite period” citing “a recent increase of cases of harassment and intimidation of Moldovan officials and politicians by Russian authorities,” the country's Foreign Ministry said on Dec. 18. Moldova's pro-Western government and Russia have been embroiled in a number of rows this year. (RFE/RL, 12.19.17)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • Asked whether he and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov could trust each other, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said: “It’s a measure of my trust that as soon as I got … into this foreign ministry I handed my hat, my coat, my gloves, and everything in my pockets, secret or otherwise, to Sergei Lavrov, with the knowledge that he would look after it and it would come to no harm.” Lavrov said: “There was nothing in Boris’s coat pockets.” (Financial Times, 12.22.17)
  • Ivan Kurilla, professor of history and international relations at the European University at St. Petersburg, speaking of Russian officials and state-run media: "By resuscitating the Cold War rhetoric, they sort of resuscitate the importance of Russia." (U.S. News, 12.18.17)