7 Things to Know

1. “I would like to emphasize from the very beginning that the outgoing year has been crucial in achieving the goals of the special military operation,” Vladimir Putin told an expanded annual meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry Board on Dec. 16. He then claimed during his annual call-in show on Dec. 19 that Russian forces were moving toward achieving their “priority goals.” Russia is yet to establish full control over the four Ukrainian regions it has annexed since the beginning of its re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,¹ but Vladimir Putin is already seeking to shape the narrative so that he can present his gains in Ukraine as a victory next year, while his planning horizon for the five Ukrainian regions Russia has already claimed as its own stretch as far as 2030.*
2. “He [Zelenskyy] should be prepared to make a deal. That's all,” Donald Trump asserted on Dec. 16 at his first post-election victory press conference. Trump is already planning to send his special envoy for the Ukraine war Keith Kellogg to Kyiv, along with London, Paris and Rome after his inauguration, and Kellogg, a retired general, is also open to visiting Moscow, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Putin is sending conflicting signals on whether he would agree to a ceasefire instead of pursuing a peace deal. “I didn’t reject it,” Putin said during his Dec. 19 call-in show with regard to Viktor Orban’s proposal for a Christmas truce, according to Meduza. At the same time, however, Putin told the annual call-in-show that “we don’t need a truce; we need peace.” When asked during the call-in show about Russia’s conditions for negotiations with Ukraine, Putin reiterated that negotiations can begin without preliminary conditions, but at the same time they must be based on what he has described as “agreements in Istanbul” that Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed during the early weeks of the war, and negotiations must also take into account “the realities that are taking shape on the ground today.” He added that any treaty could only be signed with a “legitimate government.” In his turn, Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected a return to the Istanbul agreements because he claimed that there were none. At least one of the drafts of the agreement Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed in Spring 2022 would have designated Ukraine as a "neutral" state that would not join NATO, but could join the EU and could seek security guarantees from other countries. On top of that, Putin—who insists Zelenskyy’s presidential powers have expired—continues to demand regime change in Kyiv by stressing that he can only negotiate with a legitimate government of Ukraine.
3. In the past month, Russian force have made a net gain of 204 square miles (an area roughly equivalent to 1/3rd of the total area of London), according to RM staff’s estimate that was published in the Dec. 18 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, and that is based on data provided for that period by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). One sign of how worried the Ukrainian leadership has become about Russian advances in this eastern province of Ukraine, where Russian troops have reached the outskirts of the key town of Pokrovsk this week, is the replacement of the commander of the Ukrainian forces there less than a month after replacing the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces. As NYT has observed, “On the battlefield, the situation has not looked this desperate for Ukrainian troops since the start of the invasion.”
4. The commander of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) Defense Forces Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov has been killed in an bomb blast, which was allegedly set up by an Uzbek national on the orders of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). The SBU claimed the Russian military’s NBC chief—whom it had accused of ordering the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops—was a legitimate target, but even inside Ukraine some questioned the wisdom of the assassination. Joe Biden’s NSA Jake Sullivan disapproved of the hit, arguing that "we do support and enable Ukraine to defend itself and to take the fight to Russian forces on the battlefield, but not operations like this,” while Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s nominee for special envoy for the conflict, called the assassination "not a very good idea." Moreover, Ukraine’s forces are steadily losing ground on the battlefield and assassination won’t improve their war effort, analysts and Western officials told NYT. The Russians will find a replacement for that general, a Ukrainian special forces officer told NYT, predicting that as a condition of any peace settlement, Russia would insist not only on a cessation of military operations, but also of secret operations that kill their generals. As for the Russian reaction, it went beyond threats of retaliation, with Vladimir Putin offering a rare criticism of his special services. "Our security services allowed a serious terrorist act to happen. Such grave failures cannot be tolerated," Putin said during his call-in show one day before it was revealed that the head of the FSB’s Military Counterintelligence Department Nikolai Yuryev resigned. Such a public criticism of Russia’s secret services by Putin, an ex-KGB officer and former head of the FSB himself, occurs rarely and could be a sign of what Russians call “organizational conclusions.”
5. Vladimir Putin flaunted Russia’s nuclear forces during his Dec. 16 address to the expanded annual meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Board yet again. “The army and navy are being re-equipped with up-to-date weapons and equipment at an accelerated pace. For example, the share of such weapons in the strategic nuclear forces has already reached 95%. Meanwhile, we have specified the fundamental principles for the use of nuclear weapons envisaged in the updated Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence. Let me stress once again, so that no one accuses us of trying to scare everyone with nuclear weapons: this is a policy of nuclear deterrence,” he said. He also flaunted the purported capabilities of the Oreshnik MRBM yet again both in the Dec. 16 address to the MoD board and during his Dec. 19 annual call-in show. During the latter, he proposed a “21st-century high-tech duel,” in which Russia would field the Oreshnik and the West deployed a system in Ukraine that Western experts think can intercept that MRBM. This week also saw Putin threaten to stop complying with the INF Treaty, which he claims to be complying with in spite of the legal death of that treaty, while also having the chief of his Strategic Missile Forces Sergei Karakayev participate in nuclear saber-rattling, including a claim that Russia may automate nuclear retaliation. In his interview to the RF MoD’s Red Star this week, Karakayev also implied Russia may have disclosed to the U.S. the area the Oreshnik was to target in Ukraine prior to the Nov. 21 launch of this MRBM.
6. On Dec. 16, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov told an expanded meeting of his agency’s board that one of the priorities for the Russian armed forces is “ensuring full readiness for a possible military conflict with NATO in the next decade… The first among the priority areas is victory in the special military operation,” he said.
7. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in Syria has conceded that it will probably allow Russia to keep some or all of its bases, and it is likely to respect Russia’s lease at Tartus port, according to The Economist.

NB: Due to Harvard University’s Dec. 23, 2024 – Jan. 1, 2025, recess, the next issue of the Russia in Review news digest will be published Jan. 3, 2024. Happy Holidays!

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Rosatom announced the beginning of decommissioning of the ADE-2 plutonium production reactor (original Russian report). The reactor, part of the Mining and Chemical Combine in Zheleznogorsk, was shut down in April 2010. Fuel from the reactor has been removed, and the reactor was transferred to “permanent shutdown” mode. (Fissile Material, 12.16.24)
• Zaporizhzhia NPP, a Ukrainian nuclear power plant occupied by Russia, is finalizing the preparation of its license application package. In 2025, ZNPP expects to obtain an operation license for one of its six units from Rostechnadzor, a Russian nuclear security and safety regulator. (D. Kovchegin’s Russian Nuclear Security Update #24, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 20, due to Russian shelling, one of the two power lines connecting the Zaporizhzhia NPP with the Ukrainian power grid was disconnected once again, the Ministry of Energy reported. (Korrespondent.net, 12.20.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:²

• On Dec. 16, Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon spokesman, told reporters that the North Koreans had entered combat last week in the Russian region of Kursk. “We do assess that North Korean soldiers have engaged in combat in Kursk,” Ryder said. He added: “We do have indications that they have suffered casualties, both killed and wounded.” (NYT, 12.17.24)
  • Ryder gave the assessment a day after Ukraine's military intelligence agency said that at least 30 North Korean soldiers had been killed or injured along the front line in Kursk over the weekend, in the Russian villages of Plekhovo, Vorozhba and Martynovka. The claims could not be independently verified. (NYT, 12.18.24)
  • On Dec. 19, Ryder said: “I would say at this stage it's our assessment that several hundred DPRK forces have been or several hundred casualties, right, which would range from killed in action to wounded. I'm not going to have a breakdown for you in terms of KIA versus wounded, but several hundred have. And as they engage in combat with the Russians, you know, we certainly would anticipate that those numbers will go up.” (Defense.gov, 12.19.24)
  • Geolocated footage reportedly of North Korean soldiers published on Dec. 16 indicates that North Korean soldiers under Russian command recently advanced northwest and northeast of Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha) (ISW, 12.17.24)
  • North Korean forces have suffered "several hundred" casualties fighting against Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk region, a senior U.S. military official said Dec. 17. (MT/AFP, 12.18.24)
  • On Dec. 19, a South Korean lawmaker said at least 100 North Koreans fighting alongside Russian forces against Ukrainian troops have been killed since the start of December. (MT/AFP, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Russian military had deployed North Korean soldiers in infantry assaults in Kursk Oblast. Zelenskyy stated that the Russian military is incorporating "a significant number" of North Korean soldiers into Russian units operating in Kursk Oblast and that North Korean soldiers have already sustained "noticeable" losses. On the same day, Ukrainian intelligence said at least 30 North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia have been killed or wounded in Kursk. (RFE/RL, 12.16.24, ISW, 12.14.24)
• On Dec. 19, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) troops were engaged in offensive combat operations against Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast, Russia. Around 11,000 DPRK combat troops have deployed to the Kursk region. (UKMOD, X account, 12.19.24)
• The Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China said: “Though it is a partner to the DPRK and Russia, Beijing has publicly distanced itself from Moscow and Pyongyang’s growing defense cooperation, referring to it as a strictly bilateral matter. Beijing probably views close association with North Korea-Russia cooperation as a risk to its desired reputation as a responsible great power, especially as Russia and North Korea collaborate to violate U.N. sanctions that the PRC supports. ... The possibility that Russia might transfer weapons technology or dual-use items, which could support Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, runs counter to Beijing’s stated opposition to nuclear weapons on the [Korean] Peninsula.” (Defense.gov, 12.18.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia handed over to Ukraine the bodies of 503 dead soldiers, the Ukrainian coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war reported. The Russian side received 42 bodies, writes Komsomolskaya Pravda "war correspondent" Alexander Kots, who is a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin's Human Rights Council. (Istories, 12.20.24)
• Despite continuous repairs, Ukraine can count on less than half of the 36 gigawatts (GW) in generation capacity it could tap before the war. (The Economist, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 19, European leaders discussed how to more urgently deliver air defense systems, ammunition and missiles, as well as more training and support for Ukrainian forces. Leaders also said that the first installment of the $50 billion loan to Ukraine from the Group of 7 nations would be dispersed in January, with a total of 18.1 billion euros ($18.8 billion) to be dispersed in 2025. (NYT, 12.20.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month (Nov. 20, 2024–Dec. 18, 2024), Russian forces made a net gain of 204 square miles (area roughly equivalent to the city of Colorado Springs, Colo.), according RM editor Ivan Arreguin Toft’s estimate that was published in the Dec. 18 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card and that is based on data provided for that period by the Institute for the Study of War. (RM, 12.18.24)
  • Based on open sources, the staff of the Belfer Center’s RM project and its Preventing Great Power War Project estimate that at the recent rate of the Russian forces’ advance of 6.6 square miles per day, it will take Russia 533 days for Russia to capture all of the remaining 34% of the Donetsk oblast currently under Ukraine's control. (RM, 12.20.24)
  • As of Dec. 20, the Economist estimated that Russia has gained 583 square kilometers in the past 30 days. (RM, 12.20.24)
  • Russian Chief of the General Staff Army Gen. Valery Gerasimov claimed on Dec. 18 that Russian forces seized roughly 4,500 square kilometers in 2024. ISW has observed confirmation that Russian forces have only seized 3,306 square kilometers in 2024, however. Gerasimov's exaggerated figures contrast with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov's more accurate statements to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) board meeting on Dec. 16. Belousov claimed, for example, that Russian forces' average daily rate of advance is about 30 square kilometers. ISW observed geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces advanced at a rate of roughly 27.96 square kilometers per day in November 2024. Belousov also claimed that Russian forces have seized roughly 99% of Luhansk Oblast, 70% of Donetsk Oblast, roughly 74% of Zaporizhian Oblast and roughly 76% of Kherson Oblast. ISW assesses that Russian forces occupy roughly 99% of Luhansk Oblast, 66% of Donetsk Oblast and 73% of Zaporizhian and Kherson oblasts each. (ISW, 12.18.24)
  • ISW assesses that Russian forces advanced at a rate of roughly 27.96 square kilometers per day in November 2024, but have only advanced at a rate of roughly 17.1 square kilometers per day between Dec. 1 and Dec. 18. (ISW, 12.29.24)
• On Dec. 13, Ukraine’s military leadership fired the commander who oversaw its operations in the eastern Donetsk region, where Kyiv’s defenses are buckling. Oleksandr Lutsenko had been removed from his position as commander of the Donetsk operational and tactical group. Ukraine’s forces, under Lutsenko’s command, had failed to stop Russia’s sweeping offensive that has taken an area roughly half the size of London in just the past month. He has been replaced by Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi. (FT, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 13, Ukraine’s top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said from a command center near the city of Pokrovsk — the heart of the eastern Donetsk operation and a key logistical hub for the army — that battles were raging against a Russian army “superior . . . primarily in manpower.” “The battles are extremely tough,” Syrskyi said. (FT, 12.13.24)
  • On Dec. 13, Deep State, a Ukrainian war-tracking group close to the defense ministry, said Ukrainian troops defending four villages south of Pokrovsk were under threat of encirclement, with Russian forces attacking “from all sides.” The area is near three major highways that run to the Dnipropetrovsk region and the city of Dnipro, which is crucial to the Ukrainian military’s operations across much of the 1,000 kilometer frontline. (FT, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 14, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced in Kurakhove, near Dvorichna and Lozova. Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the enemy near Pishchane. (RM, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 14, Ukraine said it had attacked an oil terminal in the western Russian region of Oryol overnight, sparking a fire. (MT/AFP, 12.14.24)
• On Dec. 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian armed forces regained their position near Kolesnykivka, while the Russian forces advanced near Zelenivka, Storozheve, Dachenske, Chasovyi Yar and Novyi Komar. (RM, 12.19.24)

• On Dec. 15, Russia claimed its troops had "liberated" the village of Vesely Gai south of Kurakhove and the village of Pushkine south of Pokrovsk, both in the Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 12.15.24)

• On Dec. 15, Moscow’s foreign intelligence chief said he has not been in contact with the CIA over Kyiv’s strikes with Western long-range weapons into Russia and Moscow’s use of its new “Oreshnik” missile in response. “No, I have not been in contact,” Sergei Naryshkin told RIA in an interview when asked if he had talked to CIA Director William Burns. (Reuters, 12,15.24)
• On Dec. 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Hannivka and advanced near Kruglenke, Dalne, Uspenivka, Pishchane, Storozheve, Trudove, Kurakhove, Shevchenko and Kostiantynopolske. (RM, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 16, Putin told an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board: “I would like to emphasize from the very beginning that the outgoing year has been crucial in achieving the goals of the special military operation.” Putin said Russian forces had the upper hand across the entire front line in eastern Ukraine and were accelerating their advance. "Russian troops are firmly holding the strategic initiative along the entire line of contact," Putin told his military generals in a televised meeting. Putin said Russia has captured 189 towns this year, and recruited 430,000 men compared with 300,000 a year earlier. (Kremlin.ru, 12.16.24, MT/AFP, 12.16.24,  FT, 12.16.24, FT, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 16, Putin told an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board, in reference to the West: “They push us to a red line that we cannot help but cross; when we begin to respond, they frighten their population with the Soviet – in the olden times – and with the Russian threat today. Meanwhile, NATO countries are boosting their military spending and the alliance’s assault groupings are being formed near the Russian border. For example, the number of U.S. servicemen in Europe has exceeded 100,000.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.16.24)
• On the night of Dec. 16 to 17, Russian forces launched 31 Shahed and other drones at Ukraine from Bryansk and Oryol oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed 20 drones over Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Cherkasy oblasts; that Ukrainian countermeasures caused 10 drones to become "lost" and fail to reach their targets; and that one drone remained in Ukrainian airspace. (ISW, 12.17.24)
• On Dec. 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Sontsivka and advanced near Novotroitske, Berestky, Zelenivka, Novyi Komar, Storozheve, Kurakhove, Pushkine, Dachenske and Vidrodzhennia. (RM, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 17, Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that Russian Ministry of Defense data shows that Ukrainian forces conducted 7,339 drone strikes on Russian territory in 2024 and hit targets in 30 different Russian regions—a record thus far since 2022. (ISW, 12.17.24)
• On Dec. 17, a high-ranking officer in charge of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Defense Forces was killed in an explosion in Moscow that sources told RFE/RL was carried out by Ukrainian intelligence operatives. Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov and his assistant were killed by a bomb concealed in a scooter outside the entrance of a Moscow building early on Dec. 17, Russia's Investigative Committee said in a statement. Kirillov is the highest-level Russian military officer to be killed in an apparent assassination since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. (RFE/RL, 12.17.24)
  • On Dec. 18, Russian authorities were reported to have detained an Uzbekistan national on suspicion of killing a top general in a Moscow bomb attack, and said he’d been recruited by Ukrainian security services to carry out the assassination. The detainee was promised $100,000 and safe passage to a European country if he helped plant the explosive device that killed Kirillov, investigators said. A court in Moscow charged Uzbek citizen Ahmat Qurbanov on Dec. 19 with terrorism and other charges in the high-profile killing of Kirillov. (RFE/RL, 12.19.24, Bloomberg, 12.18.24)
  • Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service, the SBU, claimed responsibility for the operation. SBU claimed the NBC chief – whom it had accused of ordering the use of chemical weapons against Ukranian troops, was a legitimate target. Though there have been a number of assassinations in Russia since the war began, never has such a high-ranking military leader been killed so far from the battlefield. Ukrainian authorities said Dec. 16 that on Kirillov's orders, banned chemical weapons have been used more than 4,800 times on the southern and eastern fronts of Ukraine since the invasion began, resulting in injuries to Kyiv's troops. (NYT, 12.28.24, WP, 12.18.24)
    • Ukraine’s SBU security service had a day earlier put out a “notice of suspicion” — essentially a warrant — for Kirillov over alleged “war crimes committed” against Kyiv’s forces. (FT, 12.17.24)
    • Even inside Ukraine, though, some question the wisdom of such operations. A senior Ukrainian special forces officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said they have “zero” impact strategically and tactically. They will find a replacement for that general, the officer said, predicting that as a condition of any peace settlement, Russia would insist not only on a cessation of military operations, but also of secret operations that kill their generals. (NYT, 12.18.24)
    • Ukraine’s forces are steadily losing ground on the battlefield. The assassination of a top general in Moscow won’t improve their war effort, analysts and Western officials say. (NYT, 12.18.24)
  • During his Dec. 19 call-in show, Putin commented on the killing of Kirillov. "Our security services allowed a serious terrorist act to happen. Such grave failures cannot be tolerated," Putin said. (Istories, 12.19.24) Such a public criticism of Russia’s secret services by Putin, an ex-KGB officer himself, occurs rarely. He must have been quite discontent to offer it.
  • Dmitry Medvedev, a former stand-in president for Putin and deputy chair of the security council, said Kirillov was a “true patriot of Russia” and blamed Ukraine for the attack. Reacting to an editorial in the London-based Times newspaper that called the Dec. 17 killing of Kirillov "a legitimate act of defense by a threatened nation," Medvedev said Moscow should apply the same logic in its outlook. In its article, The Times said the assassination was "a discriminate strike against an aggressor" and that it underlines the need for Western governments to give Ukraine "all support it needs to fight a just war of self-defense." (RFE/RL, 12.18.24, RFE/RL, 12.17.24)
  • “It is now obvious who ordered this terrorist attack,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, more than 24 hours after the attack was claimed by Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 12.18.24)
  • Kirillov was hit with U.K. sanctions in October “for the deployment of barbaric chemical weapons in Ukraine,” including the toxic choking agent chloropicrin. The U.K. said Kirillov was also “a significant mouthpiece for Kremlin disinformation,” a reference to public briefings in which he regularly accused Kyiv of plotting to use chemical weapons and develop a nuclear “dirty bomb.” (FT, 12.17.24)
  • National security adviser Jake Sullivan disapproved: "We do support and enable Ukraine to defend itself and to take the fight to Russian forces on the battlefield but not operations like this," he said Dec. 18 on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," adding, "From the United States' perspective, assassination operations, far from the battlefield in a capital city, that is not something that is a part of American military doctrine." (WP, 12.19.24)
  • "I can tell you that the United States was not aware of it in advance and was not involved," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said of the killing of Kirillov. But Miller pointed to earlier U.S. assessments that Kirillov had ordered the use of riot control agents on the battlefield in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. (MT/AFP, 12.18.24)
  • Keith Kellogg, who was nominated by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to be his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, called the assassination of Kirillov "not a very good idea." He said this in an interview with a Fox News host. (Meduza, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 17, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's top military commander, said: “For the third day, the enemy has been conducting intensive offensive operations on the territory of the Kursk region, actively using units of the North Korean Army." He said Russian forces were continuing their drive to capture the strategic Donetsk city of Pokrovsk, which appears to be mostly deserted by civilians. (RFE/RL, 12.17.24)
• On Dec. 17, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said it disrupted what it described as the "biggest network" of Russian spies operating within the country who were allegedly collecting intelligence on ally-donated F-16 fighter jets, among other military targets. (RFE/RL, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 17, Syrskyi said active fighting was occurring along more than 700 miles of the front line, including major Russian offensive operations in several regions. On the battlefield, the situation has not looked this desperate for Ukrainian troops since the start of the invasion. (NYT, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 18, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Trudove and advanced in Uspenivka, Kurakhove, near Zahryzove, Pishchane, Novooleynivka, Vovkove, Neskuchne and Vidrodzhennia. (RM, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 18, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine’s military cannot independently retake Crimea and Donbas. When asked if he would consider giving up these regions, even temporarily, Zelenskyy firmly stated that Ukraine cannot legally surrender its territory: “We cannot give up our territories. Ukraine’s Constitution forbids it. De facto, these territories are currently under Russian control. We lack the strength to reclaim them. We can only rely on diplomatic pressure from the international community to force Putin to come to the negotiating table.” (Meduza, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 18, it was reported that Russian forces moved into the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk and are threatening the major cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, all in the eastern Donetsk region. (NYT, 12.18.24, Meduza, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 18, Ukraine launched a missile attack on the Kamensky Combine enterprise in the Rostov region, the Russian Defense Ministry claims. According to the military department, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used six ATACMS missiles and four Storm Shadow missiles. (Meduza, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 18, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov made a presentation for foreign military attaches. One of the slides showed that at least 15 regions of Russia are within the reach of ATACMS, Storm Shadow and Scalp-EG missiles. (Kommersant, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 18, Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on the southern Rostov region sparked a fire at a key oil refinery before being “neutralized,” regional authorities said. (MT/AFP, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 18, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a chemical plant in Rostov Oblast. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lt. Andriy Kovalenko reported that unspecified actors struck the Kamensky Chemical Plant and that the plant produces rocket fuel, explosives and ammunition components and disposes of spent rocket systems. (ISW, 12.18.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show, Putin said that the so-called "special military operation" (SVO) should have been launched even earlier. “I believe the decision we made in early 2022 should've been made sooner. That’s the first point. Secondly, knowing what was coming, we should've started preparing for these events, particularly the 'SVO.' The Crimean events [Russia's occupation of Ukrainian Crimea] were spontaneous, and the events of 2022 began without preparation. Why did it happen? Because we couldn’t afford to remain passive and patient, waiting for the situation to worsen for us." (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.19.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show, Putin said Russian forces were advancing along the front line of Ukraine and were moving toward achieving their primary goals. He didn't specify what he meant, but previously he has said peace will be possible after the "denazification, demilitarization and a neutral status" of Ukraine. "Our soldiers are gaining territory every day. We are moving forward," Putin claimed. (RFE/RL, 12.19.24, WSJ, 12.19.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show, Putin declined to set a timeline for expelling Ukrainian troops from Kursk, says “rushing” will lead to unnecessary losses. “I can’t and won’t name a specific date for when they’ll drive them out. The troops are fighting as we speak — there’s a battle going on right now,” Putin said. Putin promised that the military would “absolutely” drive out Ukrainian forces but explained his reluctance to set a deadline. “You don’t give dates like that. The soldiers are listening, and if I announce one … they’ll rush to meet it at all costs, without considering the losses. We can’t do that,” he said. (Meduza, 12.19.24) Putin appeared in no hurry to seek an end to the war.
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show, Putin was asked by Z-military correspondent Andrey Rudenko whether Russia has the strength to restore all territories captured by its military until 2030. "Yes, we do. There can be no doubt about that. We have a huge development program. Work will be carried out in various directions. We plan to build a ring road around the Azov Sea, which is now an inland sea for us," he said. (Istories, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 20, in Konstantinovka, Donetsk region, a 75-year-old woman died after an enemy hit a multi-story building; her body was recovered from the rubble. (Korrespondent.net, 12.20.24)
• On Dec. 20, the Ukrainian military told RBC.ua that Russia struck Kyiv with five Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. The launches were carried out from the Voronezh and Bryansk regions of Russia, according to the military. The Ukrainian military claimed that its air defense destroyed all five missiles. However, one person is known to have died and nine were injured in the attack on Kyiv, according to RBC.ua. The Ukrainian air defense also claimed to have shot down 40 enemy UAVs in in the Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions, and in the Russian Kursk region, while another 20 drones did not reach their targets, according to Ukrainska Pravda. (RM, 12.20.24)
  • As a result of Russian missile attacks on Dec. 20, the building housing the embassies of Albania, Argentina, Palestine, North Macedonia, Portugal and Montenegro were damaged in Kyiv. This was reported by the representative of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Georgy Tykhyi, during a briefing Dec. 20. (Korrespondent.net, 12.20.24)
  • Russia's Defense Ministry said Dec. 20 on Telegram that the bombardment was in response to a Ukrainian attack earlier this week on the Kamensky chemical plant in Russia's southern Rostov region. (NYT, 12.20.24)
• On Dec. 20, Rylsk, a town of approximately 15,000 people in Russia’s Kursk region, was hit by a deadly HIMARS missile attack, killing six. (Meduza, 12.20.24)
• Yulia Zhdanova, acting head of the Russian delegation to the Vienna talks on military security and arms control, said. Overall, militants from 110 countries have participated, with the majority coming from Poland, the U.S. and Georgia, she said. (TASS, 12.16.24)
• "Regarding (lowering the mobilization age - ed.) Tell me please, if a person stands in front of you without a weapon, what difference does it make whether this person is 20 or 30. No difference. Partners pay attention to the physical capabilities of this or that soldier. And we pay attention to the fact that we have naked brigades," Zelenskyy said. (RBC.ua, 12.19.24)
• Ukraine will not agree to reduce the number of its armed forces. Even if it receives an invitation to NATO, RBC-Ukraine reported with reference to Zelenskyy at a meeting with journalists in Brussels. (RBC.ua, 12.19.24)
• Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and current Ambassador to the United Kingdom Valerii Zaluzhniy has published a book, "My War," which he began writing in the spring of 2023, when Ukraine was preparing for a counteroffensive; the book became the first in a trilogy. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.20.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• NATO has taken over coordination of Western military aid to Ukraine from the U.S. as planned, a source said on Dec. 17, in a move widely seen as aiming to safeguard the support mechanism against NATO-skeptic Trump. (Reuters, 12.18.24)
• When U.S. President Joe Biden made a last-minute request to Congress recently that lawmakers include an extra $24 billion in military aid for Ukraine in their year-end spending package, it received no serious consideration from members of either party. That was partly because Ukraine had yet to spend the last multibillion-dollar infusion lawmakers approved early this year to back the country in its war with Russia. But the chilly reception also reflected how reality has set in on Capitol Hill that the election of Trump has effectively brought the era of U.S. military support to Ukraine to an end. (NYT, 12.17.24)
  • ''I don't see any appetite for that,'' said Sen. John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, who in the past has been one of the GOP's most resolute voices proclaiming a moral imperative for continuing to support Ukraine, adding: ''I'm hopeful that President Trump can help bring that to some sort of resolution.'' (NYT, 12.17.24)
  • ''Appetite is waning,'' said Sen. Todd Young, Republican of Indiana, who in the past has been a reliable vote in favor of military assistance packages for Ukraine. ''Since the president ran on this, in his resolve to do his best to try and bring this to some sort of negotiated resolution, it makes sense for me to give him an opportunity to negotiate a positive resolution.'' (NYT, 12.17.24)
  • ''It gets harder and harder every single time, because it can't last forever,'' Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Republican of Texas, said of efforts to send more funding to Ukraine. (NYT, 12.17.24)
• The Biden administration will announce in the coming days its final Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package, using up the remaining funds set aside to buy new weapons for Ukraine, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The package includes air defense interceptors and artillery munitions, according to a third source, but the exact contents are expected when the package is announced in the coming days. The package will be worth about $1.2 billion, said the sources. (Reuters, 12.20.24)
• On Dec. 16, Trump told a press conference: “I don't think they should have allowed missiles to be shot 200 miles into Russia. I think that was a bad thing, and that brought the Koreans in, North Korea. Another man I get along with very well, I'm the only one that does. But that did a lot of bad things. I don't think that should have been allowed. Not when there's a possibility… And certainly not just weeks before I take over, why would they do that without asking me what I thought? I wouldn't have had them do that. I think that was a big mistake they made.” (Rev.com, 12.16.24)
• Trump’s team has told European officials that he plans to continue supplying military aid to Ukraine, according to three other people briefed on the discussions with Western officials. (FT, 12.20.24)
• On Dec. 20, Ukraine received its sixth IRIS-T SLM air defense system from Germany. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.20.24)
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz separately had a telephone call with Trump on Dec. 19 during a summit of EU leaders. Scholz later told reporters that he was “quite confident that the U.S. and Europe will continue their support to Ukraine.” (FT, 12.20.24)
• The Defense Secretary visited Ukraine ahead of the third Christmas of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The U.K. has announced a new £225 million support package including drones, air defense systems and counter-drone electronic warfare technology.  The U.K. government is also examining proposals to send British troops to Ukraine to provide military training, the defense secretary has said. (FT, 12.19.24, UKMOD, X account, 12.19.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• "For the first time ever, the European Council today decided to impose restrictive measures against 16 individuals and three entities responsible for Russia's destabilizing actions abroad," the EU said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 12.16.24)
• The European Union is assessing the legal and financial implications of confiscating Russia’s sanctioned central bank assets for use by Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. The bloc’s diplomatic service, as well as some member states, are examining whether judicial decisions would be needed as a legal basis to seize the frozen assets, or if a damage calculation would be enough, said the people, who asked for anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue. (Bloomberg, 12.17.24)
• On Nov. 19, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told European Union leaders that he wants to wait until the inauguration of his ally Trump before deciding whether to extend the bloc’s sanctions against Russia, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 12.19.24)
• Russia's Prosecutor General's office on Dec. 18 designated U.S. private cyber security firm Recorded Future as an "undesirable" organization, accusing it of being involved in cyberattacks against Moscow. With offices in the United States, Britain, Japan, Singapore and Sweden, Recorded Future specializes in identifying cyber threats and helps firms identify and quantify IT risks worldwide. Mastercard acquired the Boston-based company in September. (MT/AFP, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 16, the Kremlin released a video showing Putin meeting with representatives of the largest businesses in Russia. It was only the third time he’s held such a meeting since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the footage is noteworthy for showing only the backs of the heads of the business people in attendance, the news outlet Agentstvo Media reported. (Meduza, 12.17.24)
• On June 2, 2022, the United States government spent $12,458 to scrub the hull of a Russian oligarch's super-yacht. Six days later, U.S. taxpayers spent $52,717.08 primarily on meat, fish, dairy, bread, spices and other groceries for the 30 crew members of the luxury vessel, named the Amadea. Five days later, taxpayers shelled out an additional $277,200 on the Amadea — this time to put 52,800 gallons of fuel in the six-deck yacht ahead of its voyage from Fiji to San Diego, where it's been docked on America's dime for most of the past two years. The United States claimed the yacht was owned by Russian gold magnate Suleyman Kerimov. (WP, 12.19.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• On Dec. 16, Trump told a press conference: “We're trying to get the war stopped, that horrible war that's going on in Ukraine with Russia, Ukraine. We've got a little progress. It's a tough one. It's a nasty one. It's nasty. People are being killed at levels that nobody's ever seen. It's very level fields. And the only thing that stops a bullet is a body, a human body. And the number of soldiers that are being killed on both sides is astronomical. I've never seen anything like that... It's a carnage that we haven't seen since the second world war. It's got to be stopped. And I'm doing my best to stop.” (Rev.com, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 16, Trump told a press conference: Zelenskyy “would like to have peace. He wants peace. Everyone's being killed. It's the worst carnage that this world has seen since World War II. I've had pictures of fields where bodies lying on top of bodies, looks like the old pictures of the Civil War where just bodies are all over. Just if you saw those pictures, you'd feel more strongly about it. It's got to stop, and we're trying to get it to stop... We'll be talking to President Putin and we'll be talking to the representatives, Zelenskyy and representatives from Ukraine. We got to stop it. It's carnage.” “He [Zelenskyy] should be prepared to make a deal. That's all.” (Rev.com, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 18, it was reported that Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia plans to visit Kyiv next month and would be open to meetings in Moscow if invited. Keith Kellogg, a retired general who served in national security roles in the first Trump administration, also plans to travel to London, Paris and Rome. Kellogg’s potential openness to travel to Moscow after Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration would be an extraordinary step for a U.S. official amid the raft of sanctions against Russia since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The trip will be focused on gathering information rather than implementing any specific policy goal, the person added. (Bloomberg, 12.18.24)
  • The Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed that Ukraine is expecting Kellogg. The date of the visit has been preliminarily determined. However, it was not disclosed for security reasons. (RBC.ua, 12.20.24)
• On Dec. 18, it was reported that European nations are discussing sending troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace deal. The talks, driven by French President Emmanuel Macron, are at an early stage, but they have already revealed splits over such a mission's possible aims and mandate -- and even the wisdom of broaching the issue now. After talks with Macron last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared Warsaw had no plans to join such a force. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Dec. 16 Berlin would likely play a role in securing a ceasefire but it was far too early to say what kind of force would be needed. (Reuters, 12.18.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show, Putin said that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had proposed a Christmas truce “for a day or two” and a prisoner exchange. “I didn’t reject it. I said, in principle, it’s worth considering. But ask them [Kyiv]. He asked, and the next day the head of the regime announced that there would be no truce, no prisoner exchange,” Putin claimed. (Meduza, 12.19.24)
  • "I think it is not serious to learn from the media about certain initiatives related to the lives of Ukrainians. I have already said that the Prime Minister of Hungary, with all due respect to the Hungarians, to the attitude of the Hungarians towards Ukrainian refugees, does not have a single mandate to hold negotiations. His relations with Putin are too friendly to put Putin in his place. It is important for us to preserve Ukraine, our independence, sovereignty, to preserve Europe. Ukraine today defends Europe at the cost of the lives of Ukrainians, and, of course, we need support," Zelenskyy said. (Korrespondent.net, 12.19.24)
  • During his Dec. 19 call-in show, Putin said that what is needed in Ukraine is not a ceasefire, but a “long-term peace with guarantees for Russia and its citizens.” He said a truce would only give Ukraine time to train its military and replenish its armed forces. “We don’t need a truce; we need peace,” Putin said. Putin claimed that Russian troops are advancing daily, while Ukrainian forces are unable to hold their positions. “Do you want to give them the chance to regroup?” he said. He added that “ensuring the security guarantees [Russia seeks] is a complex issue, but overall, it’s something that can be explored.” (Meduza, 12.19.24, Meduza, 12.19.24) So, first he claims that he didn’t reject Orban’s call for a ceasefire, but then says Russia doesn’t need one.
  • Russian Ambassador to the U.N. Vasily Nebenzia said Moscow would not accept proposals to freeze the war in Ukraine. “No schemes involving a freeze of the conflict will suit Russia,” Nebenzia said during a U.N. Security Council meeting on the war, as quoted by the Russian mission’s Telegram channel. He argued that the purpose of “freezing the conflict” is to “give the Kyiv regime a much-needed breather on the battlefield to rearm and ‘lick its wounds.’” (Meduza, 12.17.24)
• When asked during his Dec. 19 call-in show about Russia’s conditions for negotiations with Ukraine, Putin reiterated that negotiations can begin without preliminary conditions, but at the same time they must be based on the Istanbul agreements prepared during the early weeks of the war and they must take into account “the realities that are taking shape on the ground today.” He added that any treaty could only be signed with a “legitimate government.” (Istories, 12.19.24) 
  • There have never been any "Istanbul agreements," and Ukraine has not signed anything with Russia, Zelenskyy stated Dec. 19, commenting on Putin’s words about possible negotiations. (Korrespondent.net, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 19, Zelenskyy met EU leaders in Brussels to seek fresh support:
  • “I want very much Trump to help us end this war,” Zelenskyy said. (Bloomberg, 12.19.24)
  • "We need very much unity between the United States and EU and countries of Europe," Zelenskyy said before the meeting. Antonio Costa, chairing his first EU summit as the new European Council president, said the EU would work for a just and lasting peace. (Reuters, 12.19.24)
  • Zelenskyy said that he had discussed with European leaders the possibility of sending European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine as part of a cease-fire or peace deal, as the country’s allies consider options on how to help Kyiv end the fighting with Russia on favorable terms. But the Ukrainian leader added that deploying peacekeepers would not be enough to ensure the country’s long-term security, and that only NATO membership could secure Ukraine against future Russian attacks. “As long as Ukraine is not in NATO, this aspect can be considered,” Zelenskyy said of the peacekeeper idea, after a meeting with European counterparts in Brussels. (NYT, 12.19.24, Meduza, 12.19.24)
  • Security guarantees solely from European countries, without U.S. involvement, will not be “sufficient” to ensure the long-term protection of Ukraine from any further Russian aggression, the Ukrainian president has warned. (FT, 12.19.24)
  • ''What we should focus on now is making sure that Ukraine gets to a position of strength,'' NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Dec. 18, suggesting it was premature to say whether European peacekeepers would be involved in any future deal. ''If we now start to discuss amongst ourselves what a deal could look like, we make it so easy for the Russians.'' (NYT, 12.19.24)
  • Western capitals should stop suggesting peace talks to Zelenskyy and instead ensure their promises of security guarantees to Kyiv are not “empty,” the EU’s chief diplomat has warned. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative on foreign affairs, said it was pointless pressuring Zelenskyy to consider peace talks when Putin showed no desire to stop the war. (FT, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 19, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany said that the war in Ukraine had been going on for a ''very, very long time now.'' ''We have to get into a situation in which peace becomes possible,'' he said. ''It must also be very clear that there must be no escalation of the war into a war between Russia and NATO.'' On Dec. 20, Scholz was reported by Der Spiegel to be visiting Moscow with a “peace mission.” (Istories, 12.20.24, NYT, 12.20.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Trump’s team has told European officials that he plans to demand NATO more than double its 2% spending target — which only 23 of the alliance’s 32 members currently meet — to 5%. One person said they understood that Trump would settle for 3.5%, and that he was planning to explicitly link higher defense spending and the offer of more favorable trading terms with the U.S. (FT, 12.20.24)
• On Dec. 16, Trump told a press conference: “Putin would've never gone in [into Ukraine in 2022] if I was the president. If I was the president, we wouldn't have had inflation, our oil prices would have been lower. I had a good relationship with Putin, despite the Russia hoax, which made it more difficult, if we had that election, if it were an honorable election, we wouldn't have had any of the problems that we're talking about right now. Putin would have never gone in.” (Rev.com, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 16, Putin told an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board: “Under the pretext of a non-existent Russian threat, they scare their population with allegations that we intend to attack someone. This is a very simple tactical ploy: they push us to a red line that we cannot help but cross; when we begin to respond, they frighten their population with the Soviet – in the olden times – and with the Russian threat today. Meanwhile, NATO countries are boosting their military spending and the alliance’s assault groupings are being formed near the Russian border. For example, the number of U.S. servicemen in Europe has exceeded 100,000.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 16, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov told an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board that one of the priorities for the armed forces for the next year and in the medium term is “ensuring full readiness for a possible military conflict with NATO in the next decade.” “The first among the priority areas is victory in the special military operation,” he said. He also claimed that in 2024, the Russian Armed Forces “liberated” 4,500 square kilometers of territory occupied by the enemy during the SVO. (RBC, 12.16.24, Kommersant, 12.16.24) For European and NATO officials’ and commanders’ early 2024 predictions of when Russia may attack NATO, click here.
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show, Putin said Boris Yeltsin was received favorably by Western leaders as long as he did nothing to threaten their interests. According to Putin, Western leaders would “pat Yeltsin on the shoulder” and “overlook it even when he had a little too much to drink.” (Meduza, 12.19.24)
• On Nov. 26, Merkuriy missile corvette, one of Russia's most advanced naval assets, was escorting an oil tanker in the Baltic Sea when the German warship approached. The German frigate F223 had followed the two Russian ships up to a spot near the Danish island of Bornholm before it dispatched its Sea Lynx helicopter, armed with powerful surveillance equipment, to have a closer look after a series of incidents in the area had put security forces on edge. The Russian corvette responded by shooting flares at the aircraft, forcing it to turn back. No one was hurt, and the helicopter, designed to hunt and destroy submarines, wasn't damaged, German officials said. (WSJ, 12.17.24)
• Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has told Democratic senators that he shares their security concerns over Elon Musk’s reported contacts with Russian leaders but added that the Pentagon has adequate competition in its space programs to prevent over-reliance on the billionaire’s SpaceX. (Bloomberg, 12.18.24)
• EU countries are at risk of Russian election meddling that can be “nearly impossible” to prove, Romania’s president has warned weeks after Bucharest cancelled its presidential vote over alleged foreign interference. Klaus Iohannis said he would tell his EU counterparts at a summit that foreign interference posed a threat to all European democracies. Germany is holding a snap general election in February. (FT, 12.19.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Relations between Russia and China reached the highest ever level because they are driven by mutual trust, Putin said at an end-of-year news conference. "We very often talk about the interaction between Russia and the People's Republic of China. ... First of all, it is related to mutual trust," he said. "We do nothing that would run counter to our interests, and we do a great deal that is in the interests of both the Chinese people and the peoples of the Russian Federation," he said. Putin has said he sees Chinese leader Xi Jinping as his friend. (TASS, 12.19.24)
• Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China said: “Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to test the strength of Russia and China’s strategic partnership, Beijing has sought to preserve its close ties with Moscow while promoting its own image as a responsible great power, maintaining its “neutrality” in the war.” (Defense.gov, 12.18.24)
• Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China said: “The PRC almost certainly is applying lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine toward countering what it perceives as a U.S.-led containment strategy.” (Defense.gov, 12.18.24)
• Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China said: “strategic partnership, Beijing has sought to preserve its close ties with Moscow while promoting its own image as a responsible great power, maintaining its “neutrality” in the war. Beijing has sought to balance its support to Moscow’s defense industry while avoiding reputational or economic costs resulting from its assistance. Beijing has parroted Russian narratives when they align with China’s criticism of the United States and has refrained from condemning [Russia’s] conduct or referring to Moscow’s invasion as a “war.” (Defense.gov, 12.18.24)
• European Union leaders are set to avoid directly calling out China for its support of Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to a draft statement they plan to adopt at a summit in Brussels this week. The statement, which could still change before leaders endorse it Dec. 19, “strongly condemns” Iran and North Korea for supporting Russia’s war, providing weapons to Moscow, and in Pyongyang’s case, troops, according to a draft seen by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 12.18.24)
• Ozon Global, the international version of one of Russia’s largest ecommerce platforms, sources 80% of its orders from China and told the Financial Times it had signed up at least 100,000 sellers from the country. In 2022, Chinese sellers numbered about 10,000. Wildberries, the largest platform by sales, said it had formally launched a channel for Chinese sellers last year, with industry sources confirming growing interest in selling on the platform. (FT, 12.16.24)

Missile defense:

• On Dec. 11, Russian-Chinese consultations on missile defense and missile aspects of strategic stability were held in Beijing. The parties held an in-depth discussion of this issue in the context of maintaining global and regional security, exchanging, in particular, views on the topic of medium- and shorter-range missiles. The parties confirmed their commitment to strengthening dialogue and coordination on these factors of strategic stability. (RF MFA, 12.13.24)
• Sergei Karakayev, commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, was quoted as saying on 12.17.24 “The United States continues to search for and implement additional ways to neutralize the capabilities of Russia's Strategic Nuclear Forces. Today, further steps have been taken by deploying new anti-missile systems in Poland and gradually expanding their information segment… The Strategic Missile Forces have proposed a number of military-technical measures that would allow the effectiveness of the prospective U.S. missile defense system to be reduced to a sufficient degree and ensure the guaranteed fulfillment of the assigned tasks.” (Krasnaya Zvezda, 12.17.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin claimed that the air defense systems currently deployed in Europe are incapable of intercepting missiles from Russia’s “Oreshnik” [MRBM] system, describing the odds of success as “absolutely zero.” He also compared the American THAAD missile defense system to the Russian S-400: "It’s like our S-400, but with weaker characteristics,” he claimed.³ (Istories, 12.19.24, Meduza, 12.19.24)
  • During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin responded to what he described as claims by Western experts who have cast doubt on the capabilities of the Oreshnik [MRBM] system by proposing “21st-century high-tech duel.” “If Western experts believe [the Oreshnik can be intercepted], let them propose a technological experiment to us and those funding them in the West, particularly in the United States. Let them select a target, say in Kyiv, concentrate all their air and missile defense systems there, and we’ll strike it with the Oreshnik. Then we’ll see what happens. We’re ready for such an experiment. Is the other side ready? […] It would be interesting for us. […] Let’s conduct this experiment, this technological duel, and see the results. I think it would be useful for both us and the Americans.” (Meduza, 12.19.24)

Nuclear arms:

• “The army and navy are being re-equipped with up-to-date weapons and equipment at an accelerated pace. For example, the share of such weapons in the strategic nuclear forces has already reached 95%. Meanwhile, we have specified the fundamental principles for the use of nuclear weapons envisaged in the updated Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence. Let me stress once again, so that no one accuses us of trying to scare everyone with nuclear weapons: this is a policy of nuclear deterrence,” Putin told an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board on Dec. 16. (Kremlin.ru, 12.16.24)
• Putin told an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board on Dec. 16: “It is… imperative to focus on addressing the following priority tasks while working on the above objectives. First, strategic nuclear forces remain, without a doubt, a key tool for maintaining stability and protecting Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We will keep maintaining their potential and balanced growth, and continue working on creating new deterrent force systems and complexes. It is likewise important to keep non-strategic nuclear forces on constant alert and to continue holding exercises involving their potential use.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.16.24)
• Putin told an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board on Dec. 16: “The extremely powerful Oreshnik system… has already proven itself well. Let me repeat once again: specialists know this better, and the Commander of the Strategic Missile Forces [Sergei Karakayev], who is here today, told me that he thinks that using several such systems at once can be comparable in power to using nuclear weapons.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.16.24)
• Putin told an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board on Dec. 16: “Concerning is the U.S. activity in developing high-precision ground-based strike systems with a firing range of up to 5,500 kilometers and preparing them for deployment in forward zones. Moreover, the transfer and deployment of these missile systems are already being prepared in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Let me remind you that in the past, these measures were prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which ceased to be in effect at the initiative of the United States… if the United States begins to deploy such systems, then all our voluntary restrictions will be lifted.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.16.24)
  • On Dec. 19 Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon spokesman, said: “This kind of irresponsible saber rattling and rhetoric from a nuclear armed country is obviously unwarranted. We have not seen any shift or change in the strategic force posture of Russian forces that would necessitate a change on our end. Certainly, we're going to continue to work with allies and partners around the world towards regional security and stability.” (Defense.gov, 12.19.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin said he doesn’t know if the West understands Russia’s modified doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons. “I don’t know how they understood it [the 2024 update of the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence]; you’d have to ask them. I’ll outline a few key points. We address certain military risks that could escalate into new threats, and we consider the increased responsibility of non-nuclear states that may participate in aggression against Russia together with nuclear-armed countries. If such states pose a threat to us, we reserve the right to use our nuclear weapons against them as well. We also announced that we will do everything necessary to ensure Belarus’s security, if similar threats are posed to our ally, Belarus. I think this is a very important component of the updated nuclear doctrine.” (Meduza, 12.19.24)
• The nuclear deterrence threshold is determined not by international obligations, but by the need to deter the aggressor, said Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov. According to him, in the U.S. doctrine this threshold is “not clearly defined and significantly lower” than in the updated Russian nuclear doctrine. (Kommersant, 12.19.24)
• Sergei Karakayev, commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia was quoted as saying on Dec. 17: “An important event in the history of the Strategic Missile Forces was the combat testing of the medium-range missile system "Oreshnik"… Over the past 10 years, 21 missile regiments have entered combat duty, 16 of which have the mobile ground missile system "Yars." Over the past five years, 11 missile regiments have been introduced into combat composition.” (Krasnaya Zvezda, 12.17.24)
• Karakayev was quoted as saying on Dec. 17: “Current realities and the military-political situation have led to the need to update the nuclear policy of our state. The document [2024 Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence] clarifies the conditions for the transition of the Russian Federation to the use of nuclear weapons, expands the category of states and military alliances in relation to which nuclear deterrence is carried out, and stipulates that aggression by any non-nuclear state against the Russian Federation with the support of a nuclear power will be considered as their joint attack, including against the Republic of Belarus. Under these conditions, the Strategic Missile Forces, as before, will continue to carry out the tasks assigned to them in readiness to deter a potential enemy from aggression against the Russian Federation and its allies.” (Krasnaya Zvezda, 12.17.24)
• When asked about New START Karakayev said: “At present, until Feb. 5, 2026, it is planned to ensure that the number of warheads with nuclear weapons is maintained at the level established by the treaty limitations, which does not exclude the possibility of an increase in the number of warheads on deployed carriers in response to similar actions by the United States.” (Krasnaya Zvezda, 12.17.24)
• Karakayev was quoted as saying on Dec. 17: “The implementation of the planned measures to re-equip the units and military units of the Strategic Missile Forces has made it possible to ensure the share of modern missile weapons at the level of 88% and to give the Strategic Missile Forces grouping new capabilities to perform nuclear deterrence tasks. At the same time, in the mobile grouping of the Strategic Missile Forces, this figure already reaches 100%.” (Krasnaya Zvezda, 12.17.24)
• Karakayev was quoted as saying on Dec. 17: “The Russian Federation informs the American side no less than 24 hours in advance of any planned launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The United States of America shall also provide similar information. Such notification shall indicate the planned launch date, launch location, and warhead impact area.” (Krasnaya Zvezda, 12.17.24) 
• Karakayev was quoted as saying on Dec. 17: “The ratio of deployed carriers in the stationary and mobile groups of the Strategic Missile Forces is approximately equal. In the future, it is planned to generally maintain such a quantitative state of carriers and warheads of the groups, which will allow the Strategic Missile Forces to perform the entire spectrum of diverse nuclear deterrence tasks and participate in the so-called retaliatory and counter and retaliatory actions of the Strategic Nuclear Forces of Russia. “(Krasnaya Zvezda, 12.17.24)
• Karakayev was quoted as saying on Dec. 17: “In order to implement the decision of the President of the Russian Federation, announced in October of this year, on the preparation of serial production of the new medium-range missile system [Oreshnik], a decision is being developed on the creation of new formations and the determination of their deployment locations.” (Krasnaya Zvezda, 12.17.24)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said Dec. 18 that the air force performed a scheduled flight of two nuclear-capable Tu-95ms bombers over neutral waters near Alaska, with the U.S. military saying the warplanes were not seen as a threat. The Su-95ms were escorted by a Su-35s and a Su-30sm fighter jet of the Russian aerospace forces during the 15-hour flight, the Defense Ministry said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 12.18.24)
• China’s nuclear arsenal and other elements of its armed forces have grown robustly despite anticorruption investigations that have shaken the People’s Liberation Army at its highest levels, according to Pentagon’s annual report assessing Beijing’s military strength. It said China also seemed to be exploring the production of conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missiles. China does not disclose how many nuclear weapons it has. The Pentagon report estimates that it has added about 100 nuclear warheads since last year, bringing its stockpile to more than 600 by mid-2024. That is still much smaller than the arsenals of the United States and Russia, but China appears to be on track to deploy more than 1,000 warheads by 2030, the report said. Russia and the United States each deploy 1,550 strategic nuclear weapons under a treaty that could expire in 2026. (NYT, 12.18.24)

Counterterrorism:

• On Dec. 17, Russian lawmakers passed a bill that would give courts the power to remove groups from the country’s list of terrorist organizations, a move that could allow Moscow to lift its formal recognition of the Taliban as a terrorist group. (MT/AFP, 12.17.24)
• On Dec. 19, U.S. Central Command Forces conducted a precision airstrike targeting ISIS leader Abu Yusif aka Mahmud in the Dayr az Zawr Province, Syria resulting in two ISIS operatives killed, including Abu Yusif. (US Centcom’s X accout, 12.20.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• On Dec. 13, Russia appeared to be withdrawing some of its Syria-based forces following the sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, according to analysis of satellite photography and a Ukrainian intelligence assessment. Images captured by Maxar and Planet Labs reveal an increase in ground vehicles at the Hmeimim air base, the arrival of several large transport aircraft and the disassembly of Russian helicopters and air defenses—all factors consistent with forces gathering there to depart. (FT, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 14, a Russian cargo plane took off from the Hmeimim air base in western Syria and was reportedly destined for Libya. Satellite images taken on Dec. 13 by the space technology company Maxar appeared to show Russia preparing for the withdrawal of military equipment from the Hmeimim air base. The images showed what appear to be at least two Antonov An-124 cargo planes on the tarmac with their nose cones open. The imagery also showed a Russian-made Ka-52 attack helicopter being dismantled, likely as preparation for transport. Components of a Russian-made S-400 air defense unit had also been moved near the planes. U.S. officials said it would be a mistake to believe Russia was ready to give up on its bases in Syria. (RFE/RL, 12.14.24, NYT, 12,14,24)
• On Dec. 15, Russia's Foreign Ministry said it had evacuated some of its diplomatic staff from Syria on Sunday, a week after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. (MT/AFP, 12.16.24)
• In an hour-long televised meeting with his top military brass on Dec. 16, Putin left Syria unmentioned and made it clear that winning in Ukraine was his top priority. (NYT, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 16, it was reported that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Russia have entered negotiations. An HTS source familiar with the talks says it is being pragmatic about Syria’s future relations with Russia. HTS has conceded that it will probably allow Russia to keep some or all of its bases. And it is likely to respect Russia’s lease at Tartus port, about 80 kilometers south of Khmeimim. That would mean Russia has retained access to its only deepwater naval facility on the Mediterranean. HTS also recognizes it is unlikely to see Assad extradited (no official request has been made). “There are no red lines: this is based on interests, not ideology,” says the source. (The Economist, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 16, Syria’s deposed president Bashar al-Assad has denied that his exit from the country was pre-arranged, saying that he stayed until he was trapped on a military base that was under attack. In his first statement since a rebel offensive began taking territory almost three weeks ago, Assad said he stayed in Damascus until the early hours of Sunday Dec. 8, when he moved to the Russian base at Hmeimim on the Mediterranean coast. The former leader said that as drone attacks were launched against the base and as leaving by land became impossible, Moscow put in a request to the base’s command for an immediate evacuation to Russia. (FT, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 16, Kremlin said the fate of Russian military bases in Syria following the surprise downfall of Bashar al-Assad remained unclear. “There are no final decisions on this," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Dec. 16. "We are in contact with representatives of the forces that now control the situation in the country." Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s deputy foreign affairs minister, said this week that Russia was having “constructive” talks with HTS and hoped to retain the base for “the fight against terrorism.” (FT, 12.16.24, MT/AFP, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 16, Chechnya Gov. Ramzan Kadyrov has proposed removing Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group that overthrew Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, from Russia’s list of terrorist organizations. (Meduza, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 16, Trump told a press conference: “Had President Obama drawn the line and where it meant something, you wouldn't have even had Russia there [in Syria]. But in the end, I never understood why Russia went there. They were not getting very much out of it. But now their time has taken up with Ukraine and we'd like to get them to stop on Ukraine, and Ukraine stop also.” (Rev.com, 12.16.24)
• It was reported on Dec. 16 that Russia had evacuated at least 400 soldiers from the Damascus region in recent days in co-ordination with the main rebel faction that toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime, an official from the group said. The soldiers had been stationed at the Syrian Army’s notorious Fourth Division headquarters in Qudsayya, a suburb of the capital, Kamal Lababidi, a member of the political bureau of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, told the Financial Times in an interview. (FT, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 18, it was reported that Russia is withdrawing advanced air-defense systems and other sophisticated arms from bases in Syria and shifting them to Libya, U.S. and Libyan officials said, as Moscow scrambles to preserve a military presence in the Middle East after the collapse of the Assad regime in Damascus. Russian cargo planes have flown air-defense equipment, including radars for S-400 and S-300 interceptor systems, from Syria to bases in eastern Libya controlled by Moscow-backed Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, the officials said. (WSJ, 12.18.24)
• On Dec. 19, Putin denied that Moscow suffered a defeat in Syria: "Some might suggest that Russia failed or faltered in Syria. That’s not true. We entered Syria to prevent the creation of a terrorist enclave. That objective was achieved. The groups that fought against Assad’s government have undergone significant internal changes. Other countries now want to establish relations with them—why, with terrorist organizations? This means they’ve changed.” Putin also claimed at his annual call-in show on Dec. 19 that Russia “did not wage war in Syria.” Putin also emphasized that the Russian authorities maintain relations with all factions in Syria and claimed that most countries in the region support Moscow’s continued presence at its bases there. “I don’t know—we’ll need to think about it,” Putin said, referring to whether Russia would keep those bases. (Istories, 12.19.24, Meduza, 12.19.24, FT, 12.19.24, NYT, 12.19.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin said: “We’ll need to decide for ourselves how our relationships will look with those political forces that now control and will control the situation in the [Syria] country in the future. Our interests need to coincide.” (NYT, 12.19.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin commented on Syria for the first time since Assad’s ouster. Putin said he had not yet met with Assad in Moscow but that he intended to do so. When asked if he would ask Assad—who fled to Moscow and was granted asylum after his regime collapsed—about American journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria 12 years ago, Putin said he had not yet met with Assad but promised to “definitely” raise Tice’s case. (Meduza, 12.19.24)⁴
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin said Moscow evacuated 4,000 pro-Iranian fighters to Tehran through its Hmeimim base in Syria after rebels took over the country. (FT, 12.19.24)
• Some European nations are considering making the expulsion of Russia’s military from Syria a precondition for lifting restrictions against the Islamist group now in control of most of the country, according to people familiar with the matter. The conferring between countries is a sign of broader international support for the position taken by Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp, who said it would be “too early” to lift European Union sanctions against Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, which ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a little over a week ago. (Bloomberg, 12.16.24)
• Bashar al-Assad’s central bank airlifted around $250 million in cash to Moscow in a two-year period when the then Syrian dictator was indebted to the Kremlin for military support and his relatives were secretly buying assets in Russia. The Financial Times has uncovered records showing that Assad’s regime, while desperately short of foreign currency, flew banknotes weighing nearly two tons in $100 bills and €500 notes into Moscow’s Vnukovo airport to be deposited at sanctioned Russian banks between 2018 and 2019.
• A recent Levada Center survey indicates that 59% of Russians are aware of events in Syria, with 12% following closely and 47% having a general awareness. Interest has declined from a peak of 89% in July 2015. In response to the question of whether, in the opinion of respondents, Russia's policy toward Syria has achieved its goals, 40% of respondents found it difficult to choose a point of view. (Levada, 12.20.24)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Sergei Karakayev, commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, was quoted as saying on 12.17.24: “It should be noted that automation of the process of control of strategic weapons on combat duty has been implemented since the beginning of the development of the Strategic Missile Forces. At the same time, today's automated combat control system, intended primarily for the guaranteed delivery of combat orders to weapons, is precisely automated, but not automatic, and for now [sic] the presence of a human is mandatory in it. At the same time, we must not forget that in the hands of missilemen are strategic nuclear weapons of enormous destructive power, requiring constant human attention, excluding their unauthorized use.” (Krasnaya Zvezda, 12.17.24) 
• Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt warned that when a computer system reaches a point where it can self-improve, "we seriously need to think about unplugging it." "We're soon going to be able to have computers running on their own, deciding what they want to do," he said. When the system begins to "self-improve," he said, it may be time to consider pulling the plug. Asked if a powerful system could counter efforts to shut it down, Schmidt told ABC's George Stephanopoulos, "In theory, we better have somebody with the hand on the plug." (Axios, 12.16.24) This scenario—an entirely automated system directing itself—was the core plot element in John Badham’s 1983 film “Wargames.” After then U.S. President Ronald Reagan viewed the film, he asked his national security advisor to determine whether the scenario, in which a computer called the WOPR locked humans out of control of the entire U.S. strategic nuclear deterrent, was possible. When the answer came back “yes,” Reagan issued America’s first-ever cybersecurity directive, NSDD-145.
• Ukraine’s Justice Ministry has been hit by its most extensive external cyberattack in recent memory, targeting state registries, Justice Minister Olha Stefanishyna reported. “It is already clear that the attack was carried out by Russians to disrupt the operations of the state’s critical infrastructure,” Stefanishyna wrote. (Meduza, 12.20.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said a deal allowing transit of Russian gas through his country wouldn't be extended into 2025, but he said he's ready to discuss other methods of providing supplies to Western Europe. (RFE/RL, 12.17.24)
  • Gazprom was trading at 106.1 rubles ($1.02) per share on the Moscow Stock Exchange at its lowest point on Dec. 17 afternoon, a 2.41% decline from the previous day. That marks the lowest share price since Jan. 26, 2009, when Gazprom shares traded at 101.64 rubles. The decline comes after Kyiv reiterated Dec. 16 that it would not extend an agreement with Russia on gas transit to Europe via Ukrainian territory after it ends on Jan. 1, 2025. (MT/AFP, 12.18.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin said: "Ukraine has cut off our gas supplies to Europe. There will definitely be no new contracts for Russian gas transit through Ukraine. Gazprom will cope.” Earlier, Ukraine announced it would not sign any new contracts for Russian gas deliveries but remained open to negotiations if the EU demanded continued transit. (Istories, 12.19.24)
• The U.S. has granted Turkey an exemption from sanctions imposed on Gazprombank. The exemption allows Turkey to pay for Russian gas through the sanctioned bank. (Meduza, 12.20.24)
• The U.S. Treasury Department has temporarily suspended sanctions on transactions with Gazprombank related to civilian nuclear energy. The special exemption expires on June 30, 2025. The government’s decision applies to operations conducted for projects launched before Nov. 21, 2024—before the United States imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, one of the main channels for payments for Russian oil and gas. (Meduza, 12.18.24)
• Tankers carrying Russian oil through European waters will be asked to prove they have adequate accident insurance or face potential sanctions, according to officials briefed on a new scheme designed to tighten restrictions on Moscow’s “dark fleet” of ageing vessels. (FT, 12.17.24)
• Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on European imports unless the continent buys more American oil and gas, in a move that could frame early discussions between European leaders and his administration. "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!" Trump wrote.
• European stock markets fell after Trump's threat, with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 down nearly 2%. (WSJ, 12.20.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin said he has not spoken with Trump following his election victory but expressed his willingness to hold talks. “I don’t know when we will meet. He hasn’t said anything about it, and I haven’t spoken with him in over four years. But I’m ready anytime, and I’ll be prepared for the meeting if he wants it.” Putin denied that such a conversation would happen at a time when Russia was weakened by its decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, saying that in his view, Russia had become “much stronger over the past two to three years.” (Meduza, 12.19.24, FT, 12.19.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin was asked to comment on Biden’s decision to pardon his son, Hunter Biden. “Sometimes silence is golden,” Putin replied, before addressing Biden’s decision. “It’s always important which part of you is stronger: the politician or the human being. In Biden, the human side prevailed. And I don’t condemn him for that,” Putin said. (Meduza, 12.19.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin said: "Well… the issue here lies with YouTube. Google owns YouTube, and they must comply with our laws. They manipulate social networks to serve Western governments and even remove our artists and political figures from circulation. Roskomnadzor is rightly taking action.” (Istories, 12.19.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• On Dec. 19, Putin told his annual call-in show: “I haven’t just protected it [Russia]. I believe we stepped back from the edge of the abyss, because everything that was happening to Russia before and after was effectively leading us toward the complete loss of our sovereignty. And without sovereignty, Russia cannot exist as an independent state.” (Meduza, 12.19.24)
• On Dec. 19, Putin opened his annual call-in show by addressing issues related to the Russian economy. He stated that the economy is "stable" and suggested GDP growth for the year might reach 3.9% or even 4%.⁵ However, he called the inflation situation "concerning." "Price increases are a bad thing, but overall, I hope we can handle it," Putin said. He explained that consumption has grown in Russia due to rising incomes and wages. A secondary reason is the global rise in prices for certain product categories. "Sanctions do have an effect, but they’re not the main factor," he added. (Istories, 12.19.24)
  • Russia’s central bank bucked expectations of another interest rate increase and instead held its benchmark rate at 21% in the face of criticism from powerful Kremlin-linked figures unhappy with its aggressive attempts to tame inflation through higher borrowing costs. Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank governor, said the bank had decided to pause a series of rate rises, despite widespread expectations among investors and economists it would raise borrowing costs to 23%—or even higher. (FT, 12.20.24)
  • Many economists forecast inflation as high as 10% by the end of 2024, driven by the splurge on defense spending and a corresponding boom in the consumer sector. The central bank estimates annual inflation at 9.5% right now, far beyond its target of 4%. (FT, 12.20.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin said: “The number of women of childbearing age has decreased by 30%. We need girls and women… I want to address all leaders of all regions of the Russian Federation. The workday should begin and end with this issue [birth rate] because it is a challenge. Territory is good, but it must be populated. We are doing a lot, but clearly not enough,” Putin said. (Istories, 12.19.24, Meduza, 12.19.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin said: “We’re short of workers in construction and industry—hundreds of thousands are needed. How do we address this? To reduce reliance on migrant labor, we need to increase productivity and use new technologies. We must work with our partners in Central Asia, prepare them, and expand Russian-language schools there. At home, we need to tighten requirements for foreigners, familiarize them with our culture and laws. How can a child learn in school if they don’t speak Russian?" (Istories, 12.19.24)
  • In advance of the upcoming press conference "The Year in Review with Vladimir Putin" scheduled for Dec. 19, 2024, Levada asked Russians on which questions they would ask the president if given the opportunity. Of those polled between Nov. 21–27, 2024, the highest proportion (22%) said they would ask "When will the Special Military Operation end?" the same proportion as last year. The second largest proportion (16%) would ask "When will pensions, salaries and benefits be increased?" 7% said they would ask about inflation, 6% would enquire about the rise in mortgage rates and utilities and when this increase would end, and 5% of those surveyed would address healthcare and educational issues. 11% of Russians polled said they would ask nothing, and a quarter found it difficult to answer, the same proportions as Levada's equivalent poll in 2023. (Levada Center, 12.17.24)
  • The Dec. 2024 Levada Center poll shows key shifts: approval of President Putin increased to 81% (+2% from November), while trust in him rose to 42% (+1%). Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saw his trust rating grow to 17% (+1%). United Russia's electoral rating improved to 46% (+3%). Approval of the government and prime minister rose to 65% and 66% (+2% and +3%, respectively). Calmness remains the dominant sentiment among respondents (44%), but tension increased to 22% (+2%). Those believing the country is moving in the "right direction" climbed to 52% (+2%), while those thinking otherwise fell to 33% (-1%). (Levada, 12.19.24)
• An exchange rate of 100 to110 rubles per U.S. dollar is “reasonable” as it balances the interests of the state and exporters, Vladimir Potanin, Russia’s richest man, said on Saturday. (Bloomberg, 12,14,24)
• Around 30,000 Russians of working age die annually from HIV, according to Vadim Pokrovsky, the head of Russia’s Federal Methodological Center for HIV/AIDS Prevention. This figure continues to rise alongside increasing treatment costs for the government and a lack of early HIV testing. (MT/AFP, 12.17.24)
• The human rights project "First Department" published a study on criminal cases under articles on treason and espionage in Russia since 1997. According to their calculations, 792 of the more than 1,000 known to human rights activists became defendants after the start of a full-scale war with Ukraine. During this time, at least 201 people were convicted in the occupied territories. In 2024 alone, 359 people were convicted under Articles 275 ("High Treason"), 275.1 ("Confidential Cooperation with Foreign Organizations") and 276 ("Espionage") of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. (Istories, 12.20.24)
• Russian human rights monitor OVD-Info reports that 2,976 people face politically motivated prosecutions in Russia today, including 620 cases launched in 2024. Of this group, 1,407 people are now jailed. (Meduza, 12.18.24)
• Russian lawmakers passed a bill Dec. 17 banning “foreign agents” from obtaining money through property sales or royalty payments for creative works, as the authorities continue targeting exiled war critics seen as traitors and enemies of the state. (MT/AFP, 12.17.24)
• Rosatom is Russia's second most desirable employer after Gazprom, a Russian gas monopoly. According to poll results, 14% of Russians see Rosatom as the most desirable employer out of the closed selection list of 25 companies. (D. Kovchegin’s Russian Nuclear Security Update #24, 12.18.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• On Dec. 19 Putin told his annual call-in show: “We are no longer dependent on anyone. Economically, we are standing firmly on our own two feet. […] We are strengthening our defense capabilities, and the combat readiness of our Armed Forces is among the highest in the world. […] We are rapidly increasing production of everything needed for our army and navy, both for current operations and for the future. And we’re doing this confidently and at a fast pace—something that cannot be said of our adversaries.” (Meduza, 12.19.24)
• During his Dec. 19 call-in show Putin expressed surprise that Russian soldiers fighting in the Kursk region lack the status of “special military operation participants.” He also noted delays in their receiving awards and compensation. (Istories, 12.19.24)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• On Dec. 19, Putin commented on the oil spill in the Kerch strait: “This is, of course, an environmental disaster. Law enforcement is evaluating the actions of the tankers’ captains." Investigations revealed that the tankers “Volgoneft-212” and “Volgoneft-239,” which sank in the Kerch Strait, had been prohibited from operating in the area during winter. Putin noted that nearly 40% of the two tankers’ fuel had leaked and highlighted the need to remove the submerged tanks to prevent further spread. (Istories, 12.19.24)
  • Dozens of kilometers of Black Sea coastline in Russia's Krasnodar region have been covered in heavy fuel oil, local authorities and residents reported on Dec. 17, after two oil tankers were heavily damaged during a storm in the Kerch Strait. (RFE/RL, 12.17.24)
• Col. Gen. Nikolai Yuryev has resigned from his position as head of the FSB Military Counterintelligence Department. The decree on the general’s removal from office was signed Dec. 16, one of RBC’s sources said. According to him, Yuryev retired of his own accord. (RBC.ru, 12.20.24)

• Vladimir Lukin, the head of company responsible for border defenses in Russia’s Kursk region, was arrested on embezzlement charges. (Meduza, 12.20.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Embattled German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote on Dec. 16, the first step in a sequence of events that will lead to early elections next year—and the latest symptom of mounting political instability in Europe. Without a majority in Parliament, Scholz called a confidence vote—which he fully expected to lose—to clear the way for the dissolution of Parliament and a new vote, now expected in February. (WSJ, 12.16.24)
• On Dec. 15 Romania’s National Security Council was reported to have declassified documents detailing what it described as a Russian coordinated campaign to benefit the pro-Putin presidential frontrunner Călin Georgescu “Romania is a target for aggressive Russian hybrid actions, including cyber attacks and information leaks and sabotage,” the council said on Dec. 18, days before a run-off vote in which the far-right candidate is leading, according to opinion polls. (FT, 12.15.24)
• A Polish court has convicted 21-year-old Russian hockey player Maxim Sergeyev of espionage and sentenced him to two years and 11 months in prison. (Meduza, 12.18.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s central bank forecasts GDP to grow by 4% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. (The Economist, 12.18.24)
• In 2025 Ukraine’s budget deficit is projected to near 20% of GDP. (The Economist, 12.18.24)
• A recent poll by the New Europe Center found that 44% of Ukrainians trust Trump, higher than in any other European country, including Trump-friendly Hungary. (NYT, 12.19.24)
• Ukraine will ease its ban on dual citizenship in an attempt to tackle a demographic crisis sparked by Russia’s full-scale invasion. (Bloomberg, 12.18.24)
• Ukraine is not only the breadbasket of Europe; it is also a mineral superpower, with some of the largest reserves of 117 of the 120 most widely used minerals in the world. Of the 50 strategic minerals identified by the United States as critical to its economy and national security, many of which are quite rare yet key to certain high-value applications, Ukraine supplies 22. (WP, 12.18.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Construction of a railway between China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan is about to begin, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said. (Interfax, 12.20.24)
• Russia's nuclear giant Rosatom is selling stakes in its uranium mining operations in Kazakhstan to Chinese companies, the main Kazakh uranium company said Dec. 17, underscoring Beijing's growing influence in Central Asia. “Kazatomprom announces the exit of its Russian partner from some joint ventures," read a statement from the world's largest uranium mining company, which extracts the crucial metal at 26 sites across Kazakhstan. (MT/AFP, 12.17.24)
• Georgia selected Mikheil Kavelashvili as its next president on Saturday, as protests backed by the current head of state continue over the government’s turn away from the West in favor of closer ties with Russia. Kavelashvili, a former footballer and lawmaker for the ruling Georgian Dream party that won disputed parliamentary elections in October, was the sole candidate for the largely ceremonial post and won 224 votes. For the first time the president was selected not by a direct voting, but by an electoral college consisting of 300 people including all members of the parliament. The process took place under constitutional changes that ended the direct election of the president and took effect this year. A candidate needs two-thirds of the college’s vote to win, and the inauguration is scheduled for Dec. 29. (Bloomberg, 12.13.24)
• Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili challenged the European Union to do more to support pro-EU protesters and press the ruling Moscow-friendly Georgian Dream party to hold new elections following its unilateral decision to postpone negotiations with the 27-member bloc. (RFE/RL, 12.18.24)
• Hungary and Slovakia—both with populist, pro-Russian leaders—on Dec. 16 blocked a proposed package of European Union sanctions against leading Georgian officials for that government's violent crackdown on pro-West protesters over recent weeks. (RFE/RL, 12.17.24)
• Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia has appealed for authorities in Moscow to supply free electricity next year, the Black Sea region’s energy and transportation minister told Russian media Dec. 18. Last month, opposition protests forced out Abkhazia’s Moscow-backed leader and pressured lawmakers to scrap a controversial Russian investment deal. (MT/AFP, 12.18.24)
• A lawmaker from Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia has died following a shooting near the parliament in the capital, Sokhumi, local media reported on Dec. 19. Lawmaker Vakhtang Golandzia, one of the two deputies injured in the shooting, died from his wounds, said Apsnypress. (MT/AFP, 12.19.24)
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev spoke warmly of his country’s growing closeness with Russia and welcomed the victory of president-elect Donald Trump in the U.S., in a wide-ranging interview with Dmitry Kiselev, director general of Russia’s Rossiya Segodnya agency, on Dec. 18. (BNE, 12.19.24)
• Lithuania's authorities said Dec. 20 that police investigators had found no evidence of "unlawful interference" in the deadly crash of a DHL cargo plane last month, which had triggered suspicions of foul play. (MT/AFP, 12.20.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• On Dec. 19, Putin told his annual call-in show: "When everything is stable and orderly, we feel bored. We crave action. But as soon as action begins, we feel scared. When bullets whiz past our heads—unfortunately, they’re whizzing now—it's terrifying. But not utterly terrifying," (Istories, 12.19.24)

Footnotes

1. ISW assesses that Russian forces occupy roughly 99 percent of Luhansk Oblast, 66 percent of Donetsk Oblast, and 73 percent of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts each.
2. Check out this Bloomberg explainer, “Why Thousands of North Koreans Are Fighting in Russia,” for more details on this subject.
3. Russian military analyst Yan Matveev remarked: "THAAD is an exo-atmospheric interception system with a height of up to 150 kilometers. The S-400 has a maximum height of 30 kilometers, meaning THAAD can intercept ICBMs before their warheads separate, while the S-400 targets individual warheads." (Istories, 12.19.24)
4. Tice is a Marine Corps veteran and freelance journalist who worked on stories for The Washington Post and other U.S.-based media outlets. He was 31 when he was abducted in 2012 while reporting on the civil war in Syria. (WP, 12.19.24)
5. Putin's television appearance comes a day before the central bank is expected to further raise interest rates from the current record 21%. The bank's campaign to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation has faced stiff resistance from Russia's business elite, hit by shrinking margins and mounting costs. (WSJ, 12.19.24)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka.