This Week’s Highlights

• Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, and his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, met in Switzerland on Dec. 18. The U.S. Defense Department said they discussed "Syria, strategic stability and a variety of other operational and strategic issues to enhance deconfliction, improve understanding and reduce risk,” but no cooperation or business as usual. Russia’s Defense Ministry said the two "exchanged views on strategic stability, the situation in Syria and other regions, and the measures to prevent incidents during the parties' military activities," RFE/RL reports.
• During his end of year press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is ready to extend New START, but there has been no response from Washington to Russian proposals, RFE/RL reports. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers from both parties are pressuring the White House to extend New START by demanding intelligence assessments on the costs of allowing the treaty to lapse, according to Reuters. 
• The State Department sent a 22-page letter to the Senate making a case against the Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act (DASKA). The letter says the bill "risks crippling the global energy, commodities, financial and other markets" and would target "almost the entire range of foreign commercial activities with Russia," according to the Daily Beast. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed DASKA—which Sen. Graham described as “sanctions from hell”—on Dec.18. The bill targets new Russian sovereign debt, banks that support the Kremlin’s efforts to "undermine democratic institutions in other countries," individuals selling goods or services to the country's oil industry, its cyberindustry and figures close to Putin, RFE/RL reports.
• Only 20 percent of Russians polled by Levada in May 2018 said they viewed the U.S. favorably, and that year, they named the U.S. as Russia’s biggest adversary. In Levada’s most recent survey, however, 47 percent of Russians had a favorable opinion of the U.S., and the number of Russians with a favorable view of the EU has also nearly doubled from 28 percent in May 2018 to 52 percent in November 2019, The Moscow Times reports.
• “We do not have a military alliance with China and we do not plan to create one. But our relations with China continue to develop, including in the sphere of defense technologies,” Putin told the end of year press conference. “I think China is capable of producing its own ballistic missile early warning system, but with our help it can do so sooner. This will improve our strategic partner's ability to defend itself in a significant way,” he said, according to The Moscow Times. Meanwhile, the share of Russians who have a favorable view of China declined from 75 percent in September 2018 to 72 percent in November 2019, according to Levada.
• Putin told the end of year press conference that he is open to altering Russia’s constitution, including enhancing the power of parliament and preventing anyone ruling for more than two presidential terms, amid speculation that he may seek to remain in power beyond his current term.

Dear readers: Please be advised that the Russia in Review news digest will not come out on Dec. 27 due to Harvard’s winter holidays. We look forward to resuming publication on Jan. 3 and wish you all the best in the New Year!

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• A number of countries submitted their 2018 civilian plutonium and HEU declarations to the IAEA. The U.S. declared 49.3 tons of separated plutonium. This is a decrease of 0.1 tons from the previous year. Russia reported owning 61.3 tons of civilian plutonium, an increase of 2.3 tons over the amount held in 2017. (International Panel on Fissile Materials, 12.18.19)
• The Akademik Lomonosov, the world’s first floating nuclear power plant, has begun supplying electric power to a remote corner of Russia amid criticisms from environmental activists. (The Moscow Times, 12.19.19)
• Russian authorities have launched a probe into the alleged bullying of a conscript who shot dead eight military personnel and wounded two more in October. Ramil Shamsutdinov served in Military Unit No. 54160, which is located in the closed town of Gorny and which handles nuclear warheads, according to Novaya Gazeta. According to Kommersant, however, Shamsutdinov and his victims all served in military unit No. 14258. The mission of unit No. 14258 is to provide security and logistical support to other units located in Gorny, including a 12^th GUMO base, according to the daily. (RFE/RL, 12.17.19, Russia Matters, 12.17.19)
• “All the nuclear states need to make decisive steps toward a world free of nuclear weapons. Nuclear deterrence will not protect the world from a nuclear accident or from nuclear terrorism, but would keep it under a constant threat,” Mikhail Gorbachev said. (Asahi Shimbun, 12.17.19)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• China and Russia on Dec. 16 proposed the U.N. Security Council lift a ban on North Korean exporting statues, seafood and textiles. The draft also called for a ban to be lifted on North Koreans working abroad and the termination of a 2017 requirement for all such workers to be repatriated by next week. The draft would also exempt inter-Korean rail and road cooperation projects from U.N. sanctions. The U.S. said it opposes the draft resolution. (Reuters, 12.17.19, New York Times, 12.17.19)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov highlighted the importance of exercising restraint at a meeting with British, French and German representatives in Moscow on Dec. 19 so as not to complicate the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal. (TASS, 12.19.19)
• The Russian Baltic Fleet frigate Yaroslav Mudry, accompanied by a tanker and a tug, has set off for Iran from India, where it just concluded its joint drills with India. The naval group was heading to Iran's Chabahar port. (Xinhua, 12.20.19)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• "Bite your tongue,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told a reporter who broached the topic of an upcoming nuclear war with the U.S. during the annual press conference on Dec. 19. “An upcoming nuclear war—what are you talking about?” (Washington Examiner, 12.20.19)
•  “Since the beginning of December, the Peresvet laser systems have been on alert in the positional areas of mobile intercontinental ballistic missile systems with the task of covering up their maneuvering operations,” Russia's Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov said Dec. 17. “The creation of the Avangard missile system with an intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with a hypersonic glider winged warhead is finished,” he said. (The Moscow Times, 12.18.19)
• A Russian spy ship is conducting “unsafe” and “erratic” maneuvers off the coast of the southeastern U.S., CNN reported Dec. 17. The Viktor Leonov SSV-175, part of the Vishnya class of intelligence ships, has reportedly patrolled international waters off the eastern coast of the U.S. every year since 2014. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.19)
• The $738 billion National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2020 (NDAA-2020), which the Senate passed on Dec. 17, authorizes the Space Force as the sixth branch of the American military. Trump is expected to sign it this week. (New York Times, 12.18.19)
• Authorities in Sofia confirmed that they are working with the FBI and British medical experts to investigate two suspected Russian poison attacks in 2015 in Bulgaria against Emiliyan Gebrev, owner of the weapons manufacturer EMCO Ltd. (RFE/RL, 12.19.19)

NATO-Russia relations:

• Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, and his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, met in Bern on Dec. 18. U.S. Col. DeDe Halfhill said the two commanders discussed "Syria, strategic stability and a variety of other operational and strategic issues to enhance deconfliction, improve understanding and reduce risk." The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that the two "exchanged views on strategic stability, the situation in Syria and other regions, and the measures to prevent incidents during the parties' military activities." (RFE/RL, 12.19.19)
• The NDAA-2020, which the U.S. Senate passed on Dec. 17, would bar Turkey from acquiring American-made F-35 fighter jets, a rebuke of Ankara's purchase of a Russian missile defense system, the S-400. (New York Times, 12.18.19)

Missile defense:

• No significant commentary.

Nuclear arms control:

• During his annual end of the year press conference on Dec. 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to extend the New START arms treaty with the U.S., but that there has been no response to Russian proposals. "If there is no START, there will be nothing in the world that will contain an arms race, and that I think is bad," Putin said. (RFE/RL, 12.18.19)
• U.S. lawmakers of both parties are pressuring the White House to extend the last remaining restraints on U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons deployments by demanding intelligence assessments on the costs of allowing the New START treaty to lapse. The demands, contained in three bills that may be harmonized this week, reflect doubts about whether the Trump administration has done sufficient analytical work on how China and Russia may respond to the treaty’s expiration in February 2021. (Reuters, 12.17.19)
• Thomas Countryman, a former U.S. acting undersecretary of state said: “You could offer to let the Chinese build up to the U.S. and Russia level (of 6,000 warheads) ... you could offer to take Russia and the U.S. down to 300. Or you could suggest to the Chinese that they stay at 300 and we’ll stay at 6,000. … Only the second one has a chance of being accepted by the Chinese, but it’s not acceptable, unfortunately, to the Pentagon or the Kremlin.” (Reuters, 12.17.19)

Counter-terrorism:

• Two Tajik men believed to be involved in a deadly 2017 truck attack in Stockholm—one of whom had been believed dead—are reportedly in custody in Syria. Parviz Saidrahmonov, known as Abu Davud, and Tojiddin Nazarov, known as Abu Osama Noraki are wanted in Russia and Tajikistan on terrorism charges. (RFE/RL, 12.18.19)

Conflict in Syria:

• Senate lawmakers on Dec. 17 approved the NDAA-2020, which includes an authorization for punishing new sanctions on Syria, Iran and Russia for alleged war crimes in Syria. The sanctions could target the Syrian military and Russian- and Iranian-contracted mercenary groups. International energy companies seeking to redevelop Syria's oil sector could be a target as well as any company that provides parts for aircraft. Even entities that loan money to the regime could be sanctioned. (NPR, 12.17.19)
• Russia will invest an estimated $500 million over four years in the port of Tartus in its largest ever investment in Syria. “The Russian side intends to improve the operations of the old port and build a new commercial port,” Yuri Borisov, Russian deputy prime minister, said. Borisov has also discussed ways of restoring Damascus' control over Syrian oil provinces with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Their meeting also addressed the restoration of airport infrastructure, railroads and motorways in Syria, Borisov said. (Financial Times, 12.17.18, Interfax, 12.17.19)
• Syria's parliament has approved contracts for oil exploration with two Russian companies in an effort to boost production hit by more than eight years of war and Western sanctions. The deals cover exploration and production in three blocs, including an oilfield in northeast Syria and a gas field north of Damascus. (Reuters, 12.17.19)
• Russia and Syria have held their first joint naval drills near Russia’s naval facility in the eastern Mediterranean. More than 2,000 Russian and Syrian troops and around 10 vessels and boats took part in the drills at Tartus. Russian aircraft were also present. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.19)
• The Russian military police and Turkey's Armed Forces patrolled a new district of the Syrian-Turkish border in northwestern Syria on Dec. 17, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. Army aviation helicopters from the Russian air force conducted an aerial patrol of the area. (Interfax, 12.17.19)
• Russia has opened recruitment centers for a new military force in northeastern Syria aimed at replacing U.S.-backed Kurdish groups that neighboring Turkey views as terrorists. (AP, 12.19.19)

Cyber security:

• The U.S. said a cybercrime resolution sponsored by Russia is an attempt to push state cyber controls and fears it will pass the U.N. General Assembly later this month. The resolution—Countering the Use of Information and Communications Technologies for Criminal Purposes—would create a new cybercrime treaty written by Russia, a country analysts have said is cracking down on Internet freedom at home to stifle opposition to the Kremlin. (RFE/RL, 12.20.19)
• The U.S. Justice Department is investigating a woman who runs a major Internet piracy operation on suspicion that she may also be working with Russian intelligence to steal U.S. military secrets from defense contractors, according to people familiar with the matter. Alexandra Elbakyan, a computer programmer born in Kazakhstan, is the creator of Sci-Hub, a website that provides free access to academic papers that are usually available only through expensive subscriptions. (The Washington Post, 12.20.19)
• National-security-focused lawmakers won the right to review the Trump administration's muscular new offensive hacking policy after a nine-month battle, turning the tables on an administration that has resisted oversight of its cybersecurity policy. The shift, which comes after the policy has already been used to justify hacking operations against Russia and Iran, marks a rare win for lawmakers who have pressed the administration to open up its cybersecurity work to broader oversight. (The Washington Post, 12.19.19)
• Russia will carry out tests on Dec. 23 on the reliability of its domestic internet infrastructure in the event that the country is disconnected from the worldwide web, the communications ministry said. (Reuters, 12.20.19)
• “We are not moving toward closing off the internet and are not going to do that,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his annual end of the year press conference on Dec. 19. (The Moscow Times, 12.19.19)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to still use Microsoft’s discontinued Windows XP operating system, the Open Media news website reported Dec. 16 after examining photographs of his desktop. Microsoft stopped releasing security updates for Windows XP in 2014. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.19)
• The federal government is entitled to former intelligence contractor Edward Snowden’s proceeds from his new memoir and from several of his paid speeches because he did not submit the material, which referenced intelligence activities, to federal agencies in advance, Judge Liam O’Grady of the U.S. District Court in Alexandria, Va. ruled Dec. 17. (New York Times, 12.18.19)

Elections interference:

• Former White House officials say they feared Russian President Vladimir Putin influenced U.S. President Donald Trump’s views on the 2016 campaign and Ukraine. Almost from the moment he took office, Trump seized on a theory that troubled his senior aides: Ukraine, he told them on many occasions, had tried to stop him from winning the White House. One former senior White House official said Trump stated explicitly at one point, saying he knew Ukraine was the real culprit because “Putin told me.” The Russian Embassy in Washington declined to address whether Putin told Trump that Ukraine interfered in the 2016 campaign. (The Washington Post, 12.19.19)
• Former Trump campaign aide Rick Gates was sentenced Dec. 17 to 45 days in jail, a departure from a probation sentence prosecutors said he deserved in exchange for being a witness in the Russia investigation. U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson said Gates' cooperation with prosecutors was "an important public service." (USA Today, 12.17.19)
• The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court accused the FBI on Dec. 17 of misleading judges about the rationale for wiretapping former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, as part of the Russia investigation, and ordered the bureau to propose changes in how investigators seek their permission for national security surveillance targeting Americans. (New York Times, 12.18.19)
• Former FBI Director James Comey on Dec. 15 said he was “wrong” about the bureau’s use of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act in the Russia investigation, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to question whether jail time was warranted for the director he fired in 2017. (Politico, 12.17.19)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia, Ukraine and the European Commission, after hours-long talks on Dec. 19, agreed in principle on a new gas deal starting after Jan. 1, 2020, European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic said. Sefcovic, Ukrainian Energy Minister Oleksiy Orzhel and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak did not provide details of their Berlin meeting. “It seems like the Ukrainians got much more than they expected—a five-year deal perhaps,” according to analyst Timothy Ash. (Reuters, 12.19.19, Kyiv Post, 12.20.19)
• The NDAA-2020, which the U.S. Senate passed on Dec. 17, includes sanctions meant to block the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Two former U.S. ambassadors, Daniel Fried and Richard Morningstar, criticized legislation that seeks to impose sanctions on companies building Russia’s $11-billion gas pipeline to Germany, saying it could harm relations between the two NATO countries. (RFE/RL, 12.20.19, New York Times, 12.18.19)
• The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill that will set aside $1 billion to support energy projects in Eastern Europe and Eurasia to wean the region off Russian oil and gas. The European Energy Security and Diversification Act was passed by the House on Dec. 17 as part of the $1.4 trillion spending package to keep the government running through next year. The bill is expected to pass the Senate and be signed by President Donald Trump this week. (RFE/RL, 12.18.19)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Russian holdings of U.S. debt increased by $622 million in October 2019 compared with September to $10.697 billion, the U.S. Treasury said. (TASS, 12.17.19)
• Rambler Group, one of Russia’s biggest online web portals, has decided to ask law enforcement bodies not to pursue a criminal case regarding its dispute with the Moscow-based unit of Nginx, a popular web server owned by a U.S. technology company. Rambler also wants a record 180 billion rubles ($2.87 billion) in compensation from Amazon’s streaming giant Twitch over illegal streams of English football matches. (RFE/RL, 12.17.19, The Moscow Times, 12.10.19)
• A five-year-old girl born in Russia is the world’s third-richest YouTube blogger, Forbes reported Dec. 18. Anastasia Radzinskaya—who moved to Florida last year—earned an estimated $18 million between June 2018-June 2019. (The Moscow Times, 12.18.19)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A U.S. Senate panel has passed a bill that is designed to punish Russia for its alleged interference in democratic processes abroad as well as "malign" actions in Syria and aggression against Ukraine. The bipartisan bill—described by Sen. Lindsey Graham as the "sanctions bill from hell"—was approved 17 to 5 by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Dec. 18. The Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act (DASKA) targets new Russian sovereign debt, banks that support the Kremlin’s efforts to "undermine democratic institutions in other countries," individuals selling goods or services to the country's oil industry, its cyberindustry, as well as figures close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The next step will be a vote on the Senate floor; it is unclear if or when that will happen. (RFE/RL, 12.18.19, Daily Beast, 12.19.19)
  • The Trump administration is quietly fighting DASKA. A Trump State Department official sent a 22-page letter to a top Senate chairman , arguing that the legislation is unnecessary and that it would harm America's European allies—potentially fracturing transatlantic support for current U.S. sanctions on Russia. The bill "risks crippling the global energy, commodities, financial and other markets," the letter says, and would target "almost the entire range of foreign commercial activities with Russia." (Daily Beast, 12.19.19)
• During his annual end of the year press conference on Dec. 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the U.S. impeachment process was "far-fetched," making a seemingly obvious prediction that Donald Trump will be acquitted in the Senate. "The party that lost the [2016] election, the Democratic Party, is trying to achieve results by other means," Putin said. Putin also said the U.S. cooperated with Russia when it suited its purposes but imposed sanctions to hold Russia back. He warned that Russia would retaliate against any new sanctions, which he described as "completely hostile actions." (AP, 12.19.19, The Washington Post, 12.19.19)
• The Kremlin's chief spokesperson has downplayed the prospects for improving U.S.-Russian relations following meetings by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Washington.  Dmitry Peskov said. “I don’t think there are grounds for any optimism,” he said. (RFE/RL, 12.15.19)
• Russia’s interest in joining the Group of Seven "is gone for good," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Dec. 20. (TASS, 12.20.19)
• Only 20 percent of Russians polled by Levada in May 2018 said they viewed the U.S. favorably. That year, they named the U.S. as Russia’s biggest adversary. In Levada’s most recent survey, 47 percent of Russian respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the U.S. The share of Russians who saw the U.S. in a negative light subsequently dropped from 69 percent in May 2018 to 41 percent in November 2019, Levada said. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.19)
• A federal judge on Dec. 16 rebuffed accusations by Trump's first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, that FBI agents and federal prosecutors engaged in misconduct in his criminal case, delivering a comprehensive rebuke to his 11th-hour claims. The 92-page ruling by Judge Emmet Sullivan also effectively ended Flynn's hopes that the judge would toss his conviction. Sullivan set sentencing for Jan. 28. (New York Times, 12.17.19)
• Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden: “You know, is it any wonder that if you look at the international polling that's been done, that the Chinese leader is rated above American—the American president or that Vladimir Putin congratulated him saying, stand fast and, in fact, it was a mistake to impeach him.” (December democratic debate transcript, 12.20.19)
• Entrepreneur Andrew Yang: “If your turn on cable network news today, you would think he's our president because of some combination of Russia, racism, Facebook, Hillary Clinton and emails all mixed together.” (December democratic debate transcript, 12.20.19)

 

II. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russians’ favorable view of the EU has nearly doubled since May 2018, the Levada polling agency said. The share of Russian respondents with a favorable opinion of the EU increased from 28 percent in May 2018 to 52 percent in November 2019, Levada said. The share of Russians who saw the EU in a negative light dropped from 55 percent to 34 percent. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.19)
• During his annual end of the year press conference on Dec. 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson "can be congratulated. He was victorious after all and had a better sense of the British public's mood than his political opponents. And as far as I understand, he intends to implement all of his Brexit plans.”(The Moscow Times, 12.19.19)
• During his annual end of the year press conference on Dec. 19,  Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to a spat with Germany over the killing of ethnic Chechen citizen of Georgia Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in Berlin, which German prosecutors alleged had been ordered by Moscow or authorities in Chechnya. Putin described the victim as a "bloodthirsty killer." He claimed the man, an ethnic Chechen who was accused of being responsible for the killing of 98 people in just one raid in Russia's North Caucasus and masterminding bombings on the Moscow subway system. (AP, 12.19.19)
  • One of two Russian diplomats expelled from Germany over the killing of a former Chechen rebel in Berlin has been identified as Yevgeny Sutsky, an officer in the GRU military intelligence agency, a report by the German tabloid Bild and the investigative outlet Bellingcat has said. (The Moscow Times, 12.18.19)
• "In our opinion, the best outcome [in Lybia] would be for an agreement to be reached between the two conflicting sides that would lead to an end to military actions, and would establish who will rule the country, how and what responsibilities they would have,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his annual end of the year press conference on Dec. 19. (The Moscow Times, 12.19.19)
• Russia is proposing to move toward ending the ban on selling so-called blood diamonds from the Central African Republic. The CAR, which is mired in civil conflict, should be granted a “road map” outlining the steps it needs to take to get the suspension of diamond sales lifted, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev said. (Bloomberg, 12.15.19)
• There are 334,000 foreign students enrolled in Russian universities, according to government figures, a cohort that has more than doubled since 2010. Russia is vying with Germany and France to be the world's sixth most popular destination for international students and the second most popular non-English-speaking country after China. (Financial Times, 12.19.19)
• During his annual end of the year press conference on Dec. 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin attacked the World Anti-Doping Agency's ruling as an anti-competitive move designed to shut out Russian stars. "It's not fair. It doesn't make sense, and it runs counter to international law," Putin said. (The Washington Post, 12.19.19)
• On Dec. 19, Canada's Supreme Court ruled that Alexander Vavilov, the younger son of real-life Russian spies who helped inspire the television series ''The Americans'' is entitled to Canadian citizenship, after a protracted legal battle in which he argued that children should not be punished for the sins of their parents. (New York Times, 12.20.19)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• "We do not have a military alliance with China and we do not plan to create one,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his annual end of year press conference on Dec. 19. He said Russia is helping China establish an early warning system for missiles, which would act strictly as a means of defense. "But our relations with China continue to develop, including in the sphere of defense technologies ... I think China is capable of producing its own ballistic missile early warning system, but with our help it can do so sooner. This will improve our strategic partner's ability to defend itself in a significant way," Putin said. (The Moscow Times, 12.19.19, TASS, 12.19.19)
• The share of Russians who have a favorable view of China declined from 75 percent in September 2018 to 72 percent in November 2019, according to Levada. (Russia Matters, 12.17.19)
• The number of individual Chinese tourists travelling to Russia in the previous year has grown by 61 percent, reaching 220,000 people, the deputy head of the Russian Federal Agency for Tourism, Sergei Korneev, said. (TASS, 12.17.19)
• Belarus plans to borrow $500 million from China to pay down existing debt as talks about a loan from Russia drag on. (RFE/RL, 12.14.19)

Ukraine:

• During his annual end of the year press conference on Dec. 19 Vladimir Putin said he was alarmed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's calls for changes to agreements that form the basis of the peace talks. He warned that attempts by Ukraine to revise the 2015 Minsk agreement could mean “a complete dead end” for recently renewed attempts to end the conflict in the east of the country. (Financial Times, 12.19.19, The Washington Post, 12.19.19)
• Gazprom may pay $3 billion to Naftogaz in order to move ahead with a new deal on the supply of Russian gas to Ukraine and the transit of gas through Kyiv’s territory to the European Union. The Supreme Court of Switzerland has ruled in favor of Ukraine’s state majority-owned Ukrnafta oil production company to recover $44 million in investments from Moscow that were lost as a result of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. (Kyiv Post, 12.20.19, RFE/RL, 12.19.19, 112 International, 12.20.19)
• The NDAA-2020, which the U.S. Senate passed on Dec. 17, would provide $300 million for Ukraine's security in 2020. (UNIAN, 12.18.19)
• Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Dmytro Kuleba met with U.S. Undersecretary of State David Hale to discuss next steps following the Dec. 9 Normandy format summit. While in the U.S., Kuleba said his top priorities in the U.S. capital were to lobby the U.S. to impose sanctions on Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline and enhance relations with NATO. (Interfax, 12.17.19, RFE/RL, 12.13.19)
• Acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor was instructed by a top aide to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to hand over responsibilities for his post. Taylor is planning to leave the country on Jan. 2. Pompeo's visit is scheduled to take place Jan. 3 to Jan. 4 in Kyiv, according to Ukrainian officials, and he is expected to meet with the Ukrainian president. (Wall Street Journal, 12.18.19)
• U.S. prosecutors said in court on Dec. 17 that Lev Parnas, an associate of U.S. President Donald Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, received a $1 million payment from a lawyer for Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash. Prosecutors last week asked a U.S. district judge in New York to revoke Parnas's bail. They specifically mentioned the $1 million payment he had received from an account in Russia in September, a month before he was indicted. (RFE/RL, 12.17.19)
• Of 20 food-exporting nations, Ukraine recorded the fastest-growing food exports to the EU over the last year—up 38 percent. As measured by the European Commission, in the year ending in August, Ukraine sold 7 billion euros of agricultural products to the EU, behind the U.S. at 12.4 billion euros and Brazil at 11.8 billion euros, and ahead of China at 6 billion euros. (Ukraine Business News, 12.17.19)
• According to Estonian Public Broadcasting’s Russia Service, 24,318 Ukrainians received temporary work permits in Estonia this year. This is 5.5 times the sum total of the next five countries: Belarus, Russia, Moldova, Uzbekistan and Georgia. (Ukraine Business News, 12.17.19)
• Ukraine has deported Azerbaijani opposition blogger Elvin Isayev, who is wanted by the Prosecutor-General’s Office, his country’s State Migration Service said in a news release over the weekend. His deportation came ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s two-day visit to Baku starting on Dec. 16. (RFE/RL, 12.15.19)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The Trump administration plans to publish a new U.S. strategy for Central Asia, a senior State Department official has said. “The strategy will highlight our commitment to deepening our political, economic and military engagement with Central Asia," the official said. (RFE/RL, 12.14.19)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko met Dec. 20 to discuss deeper economic ties. Russian Economics Minister Maxim Oreshkin said after the talks the two sides had failed to resolve key differences over oil and gas. Putin earlier said he saw no point in providing Belarus with a gas discount until a project to create deeper ties between the two states advanced. (AP, 12.20.19, Reuters, 12.19.19)
• Russian officials have seized nearly $96 million worth of opioids at a Moscow airport this month that were bound for Tajikistan as part of a U.N. HIV response program. (The Moscow Times, 12.18.19)
• Yury Harauski, former officer with a Belarusian police special unit, said he participated in the murder of opposition activists and that he was now seeking political asylum in an unnamed European country. (RFE/RL, 12.16.19)
• A son of Georgia's first President Zviyad Gamsakhurdia is in a critical condition after a violent attack in the capital. (RFE/RL, 12.20.19)

 

III. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin told his annual end of the year press conference on Dec. 19 that he is open to altering Russia’s constitution, including enhancing the power of parliament, amid speculation that he may seek to remain in power beyond his current term. Putin also said he was open to the idea of changing the constitution to prevent any future president doing what he did in 2012 and ruling for more than two terms. “Your humble servant served two terms consecutively, then left his post and had the constitutional right to return to the post of president, because these were not two successive terms,” he added. “It troubles some of our political analysts and public figures. Well, maybe it could be removed.” The constitution “is a living tool” and “everything, in principle, can be changed,” Putin said. Putin said he was aware of discussions in Russia involving “the possible extension of the rights of parliament, with a certain change in the prerogatives of both the president and the government.” (Financial Times, 12.19.19)
  • "The president believes the word 'consecutive' could be removed as regards the duration of stay in the post of president. In my view, this shows clearly that Vladimir Putin is not going to stay in this post after 2024," Sergei Mironov, leader of the State Duma faction A Just Russia, said. (The Washington Post, 12.19.19)
• During his annual end of year press conference on Dec. 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that Russia has become the world's largest grain exporter, surpassing the U.S. and Canada. The Russian leader also pointed at industry modernization, saying that three quarters of industrial equipment is no older than 12 years. He said that the country has built three new airports, 12 new railway stations and the number of major highways has doubled. (AP, 12.19.19)
• During his annual end of year press conference on Dec. 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned about new challenges posed by global climate change, saying that global warming could threaten Russian Arctic cities and towns built on permafrost. The Russian leader added that climate changes could trigger fires, devastating floods and other negative consequences. “We're not really sure why global warming is happening, but we need to do something about it.” (The Moscow Times, 12.19.19, AP, 12.19.19)
• During his annual end of year press conference on Dec. 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin  lambasted Vladimir Lenin's policies on ethnic issues, saying that his idea to grant broad autonomy to ethnic-based Soviet republics, including their right to secede, paved the way for the Soviet breakup once the Communist Party's hold on power started to loosen. (AP, 12.19.19)
• New research, published by the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition, says that income inequality—as measured by the Gini coefficient—in Russia was lower in 2016 than it would have been in a scenario where Russia was not under sanctions. Author Gayane Barseghyan said that “smart sanctions” had successfully hit Russia’s wealthiest citizens, while Moscow’s tit-for-tat ban on Western food imports “boosted the domestic agricultural sector, resulting in higher agricultural productivity and farm worker incomes.” Despite the fall in inequality and agricultural boost, Barseghyan estimated that Russia’s overall GDP per capita was $1,337 per year—around 5 percent lower—between 2014-2017 as a result of sanctions. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.19)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Dec. 16 signed amendments to the Administrative Violations Code that allow hefty fines for violating the controversial law on "foreign agents," so that individuals who violate the law more than twice in a 12-month period will have to pay a fine of up to 10,000 rubles ($159) for the first violation, and up to 100,000 rubles ($1,590) or 15 days in jail for repeat violations. (RFE/RL, 12.16.19)
• Around 30 percent of the Russian population are smokers, according to research by the Moscow School of Management Skolkovo private graduate business school. (The Moscow Times, 12.16.19)
• Russia has the world's second-highest share of internet users on social media—78 percent behind Japan’s 89 percent—according to research from the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics. (The Moscow Times, 12.16.19)
• Russia’s gender equality has become worse, according to the Global Gender Gap Index ranking published by the World Economic Forum on Dec. 16. Russia fell six spots on the index, from 75th last year to 81st this year, placing between El Salvador and Ethiopia. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.19)
• Authorities in the city of Kazan have registered a transgender marriage, according to a marriage certificate and video published by the KazanFirst website. (The Moscow Times, 12.16.19)

Defense and aerospace:

• “Our armed forces are currently able to fully ensure navigation safety in the waters of the Northern Sea Route, making the presence of other countries’ warships in this sea corridor unnecessary,” Russia's Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov said. “In the future, we first plan to improve the air defense system in the Arctic zone, which will increase the ability to control airspace over the entire Northern Sea Route.” (The Moscow Times, 12.18.19)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• A gunman opened fire at Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters in central Moscow on Dec. 19, killing one officer and wounding five others, including one civilian, before getting shot. One of the wounded FSB officers later died. The shooter was Yevgeny Manyurov, a native of the Moscow region town of Podolsk. His motives remained unclear as of Dec. 20, with Kommersant speculating that he may have developed grievances when working as a guard at private security companies run by ex-FSB officers. The KP tabloid quoted the alleged gunman’s mother as claiming that he had been speaking “with some Arabs in English” on the phone lately. According to his father, Manyurov spent time working as a security guard at the United Arab Emirates Embassy, where he reportedly started to develop an “eastern” accent. (The Moscow Times, 12.20.19, Russia Matters, 12.20.19)
• Fired Russian security agents have been banned from leaving the country for five years, according to a new law signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Dec. 16. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.19)
• Four projects aimed at building up Uzbekistan's technical capacity, human resources, developing nuclear infrastructure and strengthening nuclear and radiation safety have been approved by the IAEA's board of governors. Uzbekistan aims to have two nuclear power reactors in operation by 2030. (World Nuclear News, 12.17.19)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant commentary.