This Week’s Highlights

• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and NNSA officials found suspicious activity in networks belonging Sandia and Los Alamos national labs, the Office of Secure Transportation at NNSA and the Richland Field Office of the DOE. The hackers are believed to have gained access to the federal agencies’ networks  by compromising the software company SolarWinds, according to Politico and NPR. The U.S. Treasury, Departments of Commerce, Homeland Security, State and National Institutes of Health have all also been reported to have been hacked, according to the New York Times and Wall Street Journal. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service is thought to be behind the campaign, though Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that, the Financial Times reports.
• U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said: “Russia is actually, in the very broadest strategic sense, a declining state … [T]he Russian military is very good. … They are a challenge. They are a threat. No one should underestimate them. ... [T]he Russians as a nation-state have a lot of fear because they don't have natural boundaries. So they have developed systems to deal with their unique characteristics and their national security environment. … I think that they also are a security challenge, different [from China] in their nature and in their capability,” according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Dec. 15 congratulated U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on winning the U.S. presidential election and expressed confidence that “Russia and the U.S., which bear special responsibility for global security and stability can, despite the differences, really contribute to solving many problems and challenges that the world is currently facing,” according to the AP. “He is an experienced man, both in domestic politics and in foreign policy, and we expect that all the problems that have arisen—if not all, then at least some—will be solved by the new administration,” Putin said during his Dec. 17 presser, the New York Times reports.
• An elite FSB chemical weapons unit shadowed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s movements for the past three years up until his near-fatal poisoning, according to a joint investigation by Bellingcat and The Insider, in cooperation with Der Spiegel and CNN. Navalny said that the FSB men “took orders from the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin” and had “tried to kill him several times,” the Financial Times reports. “The proof is so ironclad that it’s impossible to argue with them,” Navalny said. Putin claimed that American intelligence was behind the uproar over the attempted poisoning of Navalny.
• Cooperation between Russia and China in the Asia-Pacific region is an important factor against the backdrop of U.S. deployment of the global missile defense system and U.S. plans for placing intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in this region, Russian Defense Minster Sergei Shoigu said at a video conference with his Chinese counterpart. Following their negotiations, the parties signed a protocol to the bilateral agreement on notifying each other of ballistic missile and space launches, TASS and Interfax report. "The prolongation of the Russia-China intergovernmental agreement on notifying of ballistic missile and space rocket launches for ten years shows that the relations between both states are based on trust,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said Dec. 15.
• Putin told his annual press conference that Russian gross domestic product would fall 3.6 percent in 2020, a figure he said was lower than the United States and many leading countries in the European Union. Putin also said the country’s financial system was “stable,” RFE/RL reports. The Financial Times reports that as many as 20 million Russians are living in poverty, while unemployment has jumped from 4.7 percent in March to 6.3 percent in October. Real incomes fell 4.3 percent from January to September, and the Russian government expects GDP to contract by 3.9 percent this year.

Dear readers: Please be advised that Russia in Review will resume publication on Jan. 8 due to Harvard’s winter recess. We wish you all happy holidays and the best in the New Year!

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and NNSA officials found suspicious activity in networks belonging to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Sandia and Los Alamos national laboratories in New Mexico and Washington, the Office of Secure Transportation at NNSA and the Richland Field Office of the DOE. The hackers are believed to have gained access to the federal agencies’ networks by compromising the software company SolarWinds, which sells IT management products to hundreds of government and private-sector clients. The U.S. government has not blamed any particular actor for the hacks yet, but cybersecurity experts have said the activity bears the hallmarks of Russia’s intelligence services. Shaylyn Hynes, DOE spokeswoman, said in a statement that an investigation is underway, which "has found the malware has been isolated to business networks only, and has not impacted mission-essential national security functions," including the NNSA. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service is thought to be behind the campaign, which has been running since at least the spring. The Kremlin has denied Russia was involved. (Politico, 12.17.20, NPR, 12.15.20, Newsweek, 12.15.20, The Washington Post, 12.14.20, New York Times, 12.14.20, UPI, 12.18.20)  See more in the cyber security section.
  • U.S. Sen. Deb Fisher, senior member of the Senate armed services committee, issued a statement of confidence in the safety of the nation's nuclear weapons following the announcement of the NNSA breach but said it is a cause for concern. (UPI, 12.18.20)
• Holtec International has announced that the second double-walled canister had been loaded with RBMK reactor used nuclear fuel into the Chernobyl nuclear power plant site’s Interim Storage Facility in Ukraine. (World Nuclear News, 12.15.20)

North Korea:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held talks with Special Envoy of the President of the Republic of Korea Woo Yoon-keun on Dec. 17, focusing on bilateral cooperation and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. (TASS, 12.17.20)
• North Korea has purchased Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine and Chinese diagnostic equipment, including thermographs, Japan’s Asahi newspaper reported. (TASS, 12.14.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Satellite imagery obtained by the Associated Press on Dec. 18 shows construction work has begun at a controversial underground Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow, the news agency said. New work at any nuclear facility in Iran is likely to exacerbate international tensions as the outgoing U.S. administration of Donald Trump continues to exert pressure on Tehran over its nuclear and weapons programs and its activities in the region. (RFE/RL, 12.18.20)
• Lavrov has said Moscow continues to reject U.S. sanctions against Iran "We do not just refuse to recognize unilateral sanctions, but support Iran with specific measures," Lavrov told Iranian state television Dec. 12. "Perhaps we are doing more than anyone else. In terms of figures, this amounts to billions of dollars." (RFE/RL, 12.14.20)
• Moscow is ready to lay the groundwork for a dialogue between the Arab states of the Persian Gulf and Iran, Lavrov said at a press conference after talks with his counterpart from the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Dec. 14. (TASS, 12.14.20)
• Participants of the JCPOA on Dec. 16 supported the return to its implementation in the initially agreed framework, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. (TASS, 12.16.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• The $740 billion National Defense Authorization Act has passed with a majority of more than two-thirds in both houses of Congress, meaning U.S. lawmakers have enough votes to override a veto by Trump. (Financial Times, 12.11.20)
  • The bill would stop Trump from carrying out a plan to withdraw roughly one-third of the 34,500 U.S. forces in Germany. (Financial Times, 12.11.20)
  • The bill would compel Trump to impose sanctions on Turkey for buying a  S-400 Russian missile system. (Financial Times, 12.11.20)
  • The bill would expand a requirement for the administration to sanction companies that help construct the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. (Financial Times, 12.11.20)
  • The provisions of the document allocate to Ukraine for security assistance in 2021 $250 million, including $75 million for the purchase of lethal weapons for its armed forces, which is $25 million more than in 2020. (Interfax, 12.14.20, Ukrinform, 12.14.20)

• The Trump administration issued sanctions against Turkey's military acquisitions agency on Dec. 14 to punish the NATO ally more than three years after it bought a missile defense system from Russia. The sanctions include a ban on all U.S. export licenses to the Presidency of Defense Industries as well as an asset freeze on its president, Ismail Demir, its vice president and two employees. (RFE/RL, 12.14.20, New York Times, 12.14.20)
• In a phone conversation with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the S-400 air defense systems that Turkey had purchased from Russia threaten the security of U.S. personnel. (TASS, 12.17.20)

• U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said: “Russia is actually, in the very broadest strategic sense, a declining state. Of course, they have a very capable strategic force in their nuclear capabilities. So, the Russian military is very good. … They are seeking ways in which to use their capabilities to get back onto a footing where they are a respected great power. They are a challenge. They are a threat. No one should underestimate them. They have very sophisticated cyber capabilities. They're very good in space, and they have good, solid naval, air and ground capabilities. … They have a very capable military, a very professional military. Relatively small compared to what they were during the Soviet days, but very, very capable. And the fact of the matter is Russia is a great power. … And, frankly, the Russians as a nation-state have a lot of fear because they don't have natural boundaries. So they have developed systems to deal with their unique characteristics and their national security environment. … I think that they also are a security challenge, different [from China] in their nature and in their capability.” (Wall Street Journal, 12.13.20)
• “We have two or three [military] bases, and in directions in danger of terrorism: in Kyrgyzstan, in Tajikistan, in Syria. The other side, I mean the United States, has a huge network around the world,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told his annual press conference on Dec. 17. (Kremlin.ru, translated by Russia Matters, 12.17.20)
• The Russian air force scrambled MiG-31 jet fighter to intercept a U.S. Air Force RC-135 spy plane over the Bering Sea on Dec. 11, the Defense Ministry’s National Defense Control Center said. (Defense Blog, 12.12.20)
• The Netherlands has ordered the expulsion of two Russians with diplomatic accreditation after a Dutch intelligence agency accused them of espionage targeting the country’s science and technology sectors. The General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) said Dec. 10 that the two unidentified Russians were seeking information on artificial intelligence, semiconductors and nanotechnology. (RFE/RL, 12.10.20)
• Russia reserves the right to retaliate against Bulgaria's decision to expel a Russian military attaché, the Russian embassy in Sofia said Dec. 18. (Interfax, 12.18.20)
• Pompeo has blasted Russia for continuing to "threaten Mediterranean stability" and sowing "chaos, conflict and division" in countries around the region. In a statement on Dec. 15, Pompeo responded to Lavrov, who he said has "accused the United States of playing political games" in the region. (RFE/RL, 12.15.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• When asked by a BBC correspondent during his annual press conference Dec. 17 whether he thinks he “bears even a fraction of the responsibility for the deplorable state” of Russia’s relations with the West or whether he thinks Russian authorities are all “white and fluffy,” Putin said: “Compared to you [the West]—yes, we are, we are white and fluffy. Because we agreed to free those [Eastern European] countries and peoples who wanted to develop independently from a certain Soviet dictate. We have heard your assurances that NATO will not develop eastward. But you haven't kept your promises. Yes, these are not spelled out promises, these were oral statements, including from NATO. But you haven't done anything. There have been two waves of expansion, and NATO's military infrastructure is moving closer to our borders. Shouldn't we react to this?” (Kremlin.ru, translated by Russia Matters, 12.17.20)

Missile defense:

• “Was it us who withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty? But we have to answer. Our partners withdrew from the treaty on long-range and medium-range missiles. Did we come out? No. [The U.S.] withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty. What should we do in this regard? Will you, as a NATO member, fly over us and gather everything?” Putin told his annual press conference on Dec. 17. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.20)
• The U.S. Space Command has reported that Russia has conducted a test of a direct-ascent anti-satellite missile. On Dec. 16, the service press release said that Russia has begun live-fire testing of its new direct-ascent anti-satellite missile. This appears to be the 10th test of the Nudol anti-satellite system—a test was planned in June 2019, but probably didn't take place. The first two tests are known to be unsuccessful. (Defense Blog, 12.17.20, Russianforces.org, 12.16.20)
• The U.S. Air Force has publicly released new photos showing Russian-made surface-to-air missile systems used during Emerald Flag, Eglin’s first native multi-domain test exercise. Photos posted last week appear to show a 2K12 “Kub” mobile surface-to-air missile systems that used to serve as adversary targets for a joint service exercise, Emerald Flag, at Eglin Air Force Base. (Defense Blog, 12.13.20)

Nuclear arms control:

• “There is now also a threat that the [New] START Treaty will be terminated. Then there will be no constraints on the arms race left at all, none at all. And we have called and are calling on our partners to prolong this agreement for at least a year so that we can conduct substantive, as diplomats say, negotiations on what to do and how to go on. We understand that Russia has developed new types of weapons, modern, hypersonic systems that no one else in the world has. We … are not against taking this circumstance into account. But to this day, no one talks to us about these [systems] in any way. Similar systems are being developed, by the way, in European countries, such as Great Britain, [and] in the United States,” Putin told his annual press conference on Dec. 17. (Kremlin.ru, translated by Russia Matters, 12.17.20)
  • The U.S. has responded to Russia’s call to continue negotiations on New START by reiterating a U.S. proposal and saying the Russians have "rejected" attempts to restart the talks. The U.S. proposal calls for a one-year extension of New START and an undefined warhead freeze to which Marshall Billingslea, Trump's special arms-control envoy, said Putin had agreed. (RFE/RL, 12.18.20)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Russia and the Syrian government have agreed with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to establish three joint military observation posts in the town of Ain Issa. The posts, which will be deployed in the strategically important town linking Aleppo to Al-Hasakah, will monitor the cease-fire and violations of Turkish-governed zones in the region. (Arab News, 12.11.20)
• Newly-appointed Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mekdad kicked off his duties by making a visit to Iran. His second official trip was to take him to Russia on Dec. 16, but was postponed. The Russian Foreign Ministry had urged against making too much political speculation over why he visited Tehran before Moscow. (Asharq Al-Awsat, 12.13.20)

Cyber security:

• The U.S. has issued an emergency warning after discovering that “nation-state” hackers hijacked software used by almost all Fortune 500 companies and multiple federal agencies to gain entry to secure IT systems. Multiple U.S. federal government agencies, including the U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments, have had some of their computer systems breached as part of a widespread cyber espionage campaign. The Departments of Energy, Homeland Security, State and National Institutes of Health were all hacked. The National Security Agency apparently did not know of the breach until it was notified last week by FireEye. FireEye said it had fallen victim to the hack last week, said it had already found “numerous” other victims including “government, consulting, technology, telecom and extractive entities in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East.” The cyber security company said it believed the hacking campaign “may have begun as early as spring 2020 and is currently ongoing” after hackers managed to insert malware into SolarWinds software updates. Microsoft added itself to the list of entities affected, releasing research Dec. 17. Microsoft said that targets were also hit in the U.K., Canada, Mexico, Belgium, Spain, Israel and the United Arab Emirates. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency tasked with protecting U.S. networks, in an alert Dec. 17, said it had evidence the hackers have managed to break into computer networks using bugs other than the SolarWinds software. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service is thought to be behind the campaign. (Financial Times, 12.14.20, Wall Street Journal, 12.17.20, New York Times, 12.14.20, Wall Street Journal, 12.13.20, Wall Street Journal, 12.15.20, New York Times, 12.17.20, RFE/RL, 12.18.20)
  • U.S. intelligence and security agencies warned on Dec. 16 that the cyber attack was “ongoing.” The FBI, the director of national intelligence and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said in a statement that they had formed a task force to respond to the sophisticated attack. The FBI and other agencies investigating the extensive cyberattack were to brief members of Congress on Dec. 18 about the intrusion. (RFE/RL, 12.18.20, Financial Times, 12.16.20)
  • U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on Dec. 17 called the cyberattack against U.S. government agencies and companies a “great concern” and promised to impose “substantial costs” on the perpetrators. (RFE/RL, 12.18.20)
  • Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, said Russia had "nothing to do" with the attack. "If the Americans couldn't do anything about it for several months, then they probably shouldn't make groundless accusations that the Russians did everything," Peskov said. Putin did not comment on the matter during his annual press conference on Dec. 17. (New York Times, 12.17.20, Financial Times, 12.14.20)
  • On Dec. 16, U.S. Sen. Richard Durbin called the Russian cyberattack “virtually a declaration of war.” “Stunning," Sen. Richard Blumenthal wrote on Dec. 15. “Today’s classified briefing on Russia’s cyberattack left me deeply alarmed, in fact downright scared. Americans deserve to know what’s going on.” (New York Times, 12.16.20)
• The coronavirus pandemic has caused a spike in attacks on the critical infrastructure of Russian companies. A recent study by the local telecoms giant Rostelecom has revealed that the number or attacks on Russian companies has doubled since the beginning of 2020 as hackers mostly have attempted to intercept top managers' emails or take over control of companies' key infrastructure. (bne IntelliNews, 12.14.20)

Elections interference:

• Russian musician-turned-journalist Sergei Shnurov asked Putin during his annual press conference on Dec. 17 why Russian hackers didn't help Trump get reelected. Putin angrily called the question a "provocation” and again denied that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump win. "Russian hackers have never helped the current U.S. president to get elected and never meddled in the domestic affairs of this great nation. These are all speculations aimed to spoil relations between Russian and the United States," Putin said. “U.S.-Russia relations have become hostage of the internal [U.S.] political situation,” Putin said. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.20, The Washington Post, 12.17.20)

Energy exports:

• Construction work resumed Dec. 11 on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the project's managers said, despite protests from the United States. Work on the 10-billion-euro pipeline had been suspended for nearly a year because of U.S. sanctions. Russian experts told TASS that they expect the pipeline to become operational in the fourth quarter of 2020. (AFP, 12.11.20, Russia Matters, 12.15.20)
  • U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has expressed confidence that new U.S. sanctions will prevent the completion of Nord Stream 2. (RFE/RL, 12.17.20)
• Global oil consumption is expected to come in at 96.9 million barrels a day next year, the EIA said. While this is up from the 91.2 million barrels a day forecast for 2020, it is about 200,000 barrels a day below what the Paris-based body predicted in November. Brent crude, the international marker, was broadly flat in early trading on Dec. 15 at $50.23 a barrel. (Financial Times, 12.15.20)
• The oil-producing subsidiary of Russian state gas giant Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, has announced that it plans to launch a fourth well at the Sarqala field in Iraq’s semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in the first half of 2021. (Oil Price, 12.09.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Russia’s Sukhoi company has used Microsoft HoloLens headsets on a number of processes during Su-57 fighter production and development according to a leaked internal presentation slide obtained by a Twitter user. In one such application, HoloLens headsets provide guidance as holographic overlays on fuselage and landing gear components. (Defense Blog, 12.10.20)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Putin on Dec. 15 congratulated Biden on winning the U.S. presidential election after weeks of holding out. In his message, Putin wished Biden “every success,” according to a Kremlin statement, and expressed confidence that “Russia and the U.S., which bear special responsibility for global security and stability can, despite the differences, really contribute to solving many problems and challenges that the world is currently facing.” (AP, 12.15.20)
• “We expect that the new president-elect of the United States will understand what is going on,” Putin said during his annual press conference on Dec. 17 referring to Biden. “He is an experienced man, both in domestic politics and in foreign policy, and we expect that all the problems that have arisen—if not all, then at least some—will be solved by the new administration.” (New York Times, 12.17.20)
• When asked during his annual press conference whether he planned to offer Trump a job in Russia, Putin said: “I don’t think Trump needs any help finding employment ... he has quite a large base of support inside the United States, and as far as I understand he does not plan to depart from the political life of his country.” (New York Times, 12.17.20)
• During his annual press conference, Putin insisted that American intelligence was behind the uproar over the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny. He said an investigation by an international group of journalists published on Dec. 14 that uncovered apparent involvement by Russian intelligence had also been engineered by the United States. (New York Times, 12.17.20)
• During his annual press conference, Putin answered a question on recent Russian media investigations into the financial activities of Putin's family and entourage by alleging U.S. interference in Russia's domestic affairs. "That's the State Department and U.S. security services. They are the real authors. Anyway, this has clearly been done on their orders. This is absolutely obvious," Putin said, without offering evidence. He added that "the goal is revenge and attempts to influence public opinion in our country in order to interfere in our domestic life." (The Washington Post, 12.17.20)
• Russia is waiting for the United States’ response to its suggestions about the concept of a summit of the U.N. Security Council’s five permanent members and understands that Washington may need some time to do that, Lavrov said Dec. 14. (TASS, 12.14.20)
• U.S. investigators probed Russian opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza Jr.’s suspected poisonings as “intentional” acts, the U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty news outlet reported Dec. 15, citing newly obtained records. Kara-Murza says he was deliberately poisoned in Moscow in 2015 and 2017 as retaliation for his lobbying efforts to impose U.S. and EU sanctions against Russian officials. (The Moscow Times, 12.16.20)
• Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, sentenced in June in Russia to 16 years on espionage charges that he rejects, has complained to his family members about the conditions at the prison where he is incarcerated. He is serving his sentence at Correctional Colony No. 17 in the region of Mordovia, some 350 kilometers east of Moscow, in a region historically known as the location of some of Russia's toughest prisons, including Soviet-era labor camps for political prisoners. (RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
• The U.S. is considering closing its two remaining consulates in Russia amid the coronavirus pandemic and continued bilateral tensions, Kommersant reported Dec. 14, citing unnamed diplomatic sources. The U.S. in March temporarily suspended operations at its Vladivostok consulate and reduced services at the Yekaterinburg consulate due to the COVID-19 outbreak. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.20)
• European officials have tipped off the U.S. that sanctioned Russian aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska continued to pull the strings at companies he had divested from. U.S. lawmakers raised concerns about Deripaska’s influence over aluminum giant Rusal and its parent company En+ early in 2019, when the U.S. Treasury lifted sanctions in exchange for Deripaska reducing his stake in the firm. Washington had blacklisted Deripaska and other oligarchs in 2018 because of their ties to the Kremlin and its “malign activity” worldwide. (The Moscow Times, 12.18.20)
• A Moscow court fined Google on Dec. 17 for not taking down online content banned by the Russian authorities, the latest in a series of escalating penalties against the U.S. tech giant. Google was found guilty of repeatedly failing to delete search results "containing information prohibited in Russia" and was fined 3 million rubles (around $41,000), state communications watchdog Roskomnadzor said. (The Moscow Times, 12.18.20)
• Residents of Russia’s heavily polluted industrial city of Chelyabinsk are calling on Biden to help them avoid “ecological genocide.” (The Moscow Times, 12.16.20)
• U.S. filmmaker Oliver Stone said he has received Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine against the coronavirus despite the country's mass rollout not covering his age group. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.20)
• American action star and Russian citizen Steven Seagal’s Russian bank account has been blocked by the country’s Federal Tax Service to ensure the collection of a tax, penalty or fine. (The Moscow Times, 12.16.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed 28,552 new coronavirus cases and 611 deaths on Dec. 18 compared to 28,124 cases and 587 deaths on Dec. 17. (Stopcoronavirus.ru, 12.18.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine is 91.4 percent effective, its developers announced Dec. 14, citing a new analysis of data from its Phase 3 clinical trials. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.20)
• Most of Putin’s annual press conference on Dec. 17 was devoted to Russia’s declining living standards and increasing number of coronavirus cases, with Putin insisting the country had suffered less than other countries. (The Washington Post, 12.17.20, Financial Times, 12.17.20)
  • The first question to Putin Dec. 17 came from the Far East, about whether he viewed the year as a good or bad one. Putin opted to discuss the pandemic and said that Russia has fared better than most countries. Putin said he hasn’t taken the Russian COVID-19 vaccine but would soon. He floated the possibility that the government could give members of the public just one dose of Russia’s main coronavirus vaccine, instead of two, to get the vaccine quickly to more people. (New York Times, 12.17.20, The Washington Post, 12.17.20, RFE/RL, 12.17.20)
  • When commenting on his own political future, Putin said he hasn't decided yet if he'll seek a fifth term in office when his current one ends in 2024. As part of this year’s approved set of constitutional amendments, Putin can run for reelection two more times. "Technically, there is this permission from the people," Putin said. "Whether to do this or not, I'll see." (The Washington Post, 12.17.20)
  • Putin said Russian gross domestic product would fall 3.6 percent in 2020, a figure he said was lower than the United States and many leading countries in the EU. Putin said the country’s financial system was “stable,” and personal incomes were set to rise by 1.5 percent by the end of the year, although Russians might not feel that, and unemployment was up to 6.3 percent. (RFE/RL, 12.17.20)
  • Putin said in reference to protests in Khabarovsk over detained governor Sergei Furgal: “Sergei Furgal is a representative of a well-known party that has supported him and still supports him. I had a good relationship with him. .. However, he engaged in elimination of his competitors. We are talking about murder—these are serious charges.” (The Moscow Times, 12.17.20)
• As many as 20 million Russians are living in poverty, while unemployment has jumped from 4.7 percent in March to 6.3 percent in October. Real incomes fell 4.3 percent from January to September. (Financial Times, 12.16.20)
• The Central Bank of Russia kept the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25 percent at the last policy meeting of 2020 but warned that inflation will rise to the end of the year and into next year, suggesting the easing cycle is over for the moment. (bne IntelliNews, 12.18.20)
• The Russian government has finalized a tax privilege scheme for the IT industry, which will be launched as of 2021 in a bid to make locally developed software and other IT products more competitive in the global market. Most importantly, the income tax for IT companies will be cut from the current 20 percent to a symbolic 3 percent. (bne IntelliNews, 12.14.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• On Dec. 12, the Vladimir Monomakh submarine of the Project 955 Borey class launched a salvo of four Bulava missiles from the Sea of Okhotsk toward the Chizha test range. It was the first Bulava launch conducted by a submarine based in the Pacific Fleet and the second four-missile salvo launch of Bulava. The previous launch of this kind took place in May 2018, when the missiles were launched from the Yuri Dolgorukiy submarine. (Russianforces.org, 12.12.20)
• On Dec. 16, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that a hypersonic missile system outfitted with the Avangard nuclear boost-glide vehicle has been put into service. The newest intercontinental ballistic missile with the hypersonic glide vehicles has assumed “combat duty” in the Dombarovsky division of the Strategic Missile Force. (Defense Blog, 12.16.20)
• Russia successfully test launched its first Angara post-Soviet rocket for the second time in six years following delays and glitches, Russia’s Federal Space Agency announced Dec. 14. Angara launches have been rescheduled over the years after the Angara A5 heavy lift launch vehicle and its smaller version known as the 1.2 were launched in 2014. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.20)
• The work on the new strategic bomber PAK DA is currently at a stage where certain units for it are being created, the first deputy board chairman of the Military-Industrial Commission said. (Interfax, 12.17.20)
• Serial deliveries of Okhotnik (Hunter) combat drones to the Russian armed forces will begin in 2024, the first deputy board chairman of the Russian Military-Industrial Commission said. (Interfax, 12.17.20)
• Russia’s MC-21 medium-range passenger aircraft has made its first flight with a domestically made engine. (The Moscow Times, 12.15.20)
• Leaked images shared on social media are stoking speculation about a possible new Russian high energy laser-directed energy weapon system designed to destroy hostile targets with ranges of up to five kilometers. (Defense Blog, 12.14.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• An elite Russian Federal Security Service chemical weapons unit shadowed opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s movements for the past three years up until his near-fatal poisoning, according to the results of a joint investigation by Bellingcat and The Insider, in cooperation with Der Spiegel and CNN. Navalny is recovering in Berlin after being poisoned with what Western governments say was Novichok in August. The EU sanctioned FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov and senior Kremlin officials over the poisoning. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.20)
  • Navalny said German prosecutors interrogated him and his wife at Moscow’s request Dec. 17 despite Russian authorities refusing to launch a criminal investigation into his poisoning. Navalny claimed in a YouTube video responding to the report on Dec. 14 that the men “took orders from the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin” and had “tried to kill him several times.” “The proof is so ironclad that it’s impossible to argue with them,” Navalny said in a post on Facebook about Putin’s comments. “We are now in the zone of a confession.” (New York Times, 12.17.20, Financial Times, 12.15.20, The Moscow Times, 12.18.20)
  • During his annual press conference on Dec. 17, Putin confirmed a report that Russian intelligence agents followed Navalny. The Russian president said that Navalny’s attempts to oust him from power justified surveillance against his political rival. Putin  also claimed that Bellingcat was “legalizing materials from American intelligence.” “And if that’s the case, then that’s interesting, it means that [Russian] secret services must keep an eye on him,” Putin said. “But it doesn’t mean that he needs to be poisoned. … We are ready to investigate [Navalny’s poisoning]. We are ready to investigate with our allies, or let them come here and bring biological material. If anyone has information that chemical weapons were used, give it to us. We have not received an official conclusion about the use of Novichok,” Putin said. (Financial Times, 12.17.20, New York Times, 12.17.20, The Moscow Times, 12.17.20)
  • Lavrov on Dec. 16 dismissed the investigation. "All this news is funny to read. But the manner in which this news is presented says only one thing: that our Western partners lack any ethical standards," Lavrov said. (RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
  • Seven local lawmakers of the Siberian city of Tomsk have called on Russia's Investigative Committee to launch a probe into Navalny’s poisoning. (RFE/RL, 12.18.20)
• A Kremlin-initiated investigation has found the individuals who ordered the murder of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in 2015, Putin said during a meeting of the presidential human rights council. A gunman and four accomplices were jailed for up to 20 years in 2017, but Nemtsov’s allies have criticized the investigation for failing to identify those who had ordered the killing. (The Moscow Times, 12.11.20)
• During his annual press conference on Dec. 17, Putin said in reference to jailed ex-journalist Ivan Safronov: “Whether he gathered information from open sources or not, that's the consequence. He is not being tried for his journalistic activity. He is not a dissenting journalist who fights against power. This is due to the long period of his work as an assistant or adviser to Rogozin, when he worked in the government and at Roscosmos. The investigation has nothing to do with journalistic activities in general.” (The Moscow Times, 12.17.20)
• A court in Moscow on Dec. 17 upheld pretrial detention for Russian physicist Anatoly Gubanov, a specialist in hypersonic aircraft, who was arrested earlier this month on suspicion of high treason. (RFE/RL, 12.17.20)
• A Russian couple that is on trial for high treason for photographs taken at their wedding five years ago which revealed the identity of a security operative when published online could face lengthy prison terms. Prosecutors in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad have asked the court to sentence Konstantin Antonets to 13 years in prison and his wife, Antonina Zimina, to 14 years, according to media reports. A verdict in the trial is expected on Dec. 24. (RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
• Russia has begun questioning witnesses to the monumental Battle of Stalingrad as part of a criminal investigation into what authorities term the "genocide" of Soviet citizens by invading Nazi forces in World War II. (RFE/RL, 12.12.20)
• A court in Siberia has sentenced an elderly Jehovah’s Witness leader to six years in prison for organizing an extremist group. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.20)
• Russian activist Konstantin Kotov was released from prison Dec. 16 after serving 18 months for “multiple breaches” of Russia’s protest law. (The Moscow Times, 12.16.20)
• Prosecutors in Sweden are said to be seeking lengthy prison terms for two Russians on trial for allegedly trying to kill an exiled Chechen blogger with a hammer as he slept. Tumso Abdurakhmanov, who fled Russia in 2015, reportedly survived the Feb. 26 attack by overpowering one of the suspects. (RFE/RL, 12.18.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The U.N. Security Council reiterated a call for all foreign fighters to leave Libya in a unanimous statement Dec. 15 that included the backing of Russia, which has been accused of helping a military contractor send mercenaries into the country. (RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
• Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom has begun offering to build floating nuclear plants for a number of foreign countries, TASS reported. (Bellona, 12.14.20)
• TVEL, the nuclear fuel manufacturer subsidiary of Russia's Rosatom, has loaded a batch of fresh fuel, including 18 fuel bundles of its new modification, into unit three of the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary. The new fuel will be introduced at all four units operating at Paks, with the number of new-modification bundles in each refueling to be increased gradually. (World Nuclear News, 12.14.20)
• The European Council decided to prolong the restrictive measures currently targeting specific sectors of the Russian economy until July, 31 2021. These sanctions were imposed in 2014 in response to Russia's actions destabilizing  the situation in Ukraine. The sanctions limit access to EU primary and secondary capital markets and prohibit forms of financial assistance and brokering toward Russian financial institutions. The measures also prohibit the direct or indirect import, export or transfer of all defense-related materiel and establish a ban for dual-use goods for military use or military-end users in Russia. The sanctions further curtail Russian access to certain sensitive technologies. (European Council, 12.17.20)
• In an interview with an Israeli newspaper Dec. 15, Russia has accused Israel of being responsible for the unrest in the Middle East, while relieving Iran and its allies of blame. "The problem in the region is not Iranian activities," Russian Ambassador to Israel Anatoly Viktorov told the Jerusalem Post in comments later shared by Moscow's embassy in Tel Aviv. "It's a lack of understanding between countries and noncompliance with U.N. resolutions in the Israel-Arab and Israel-Palestinian conflict." (Newsweek, 12.08.20)
• “We have opposing interests with [Turkish President] Erdogan right now. However, he is a man of his word; he is a man who does not wiggle his tail,” Putin said during his annual press conference. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.20)
• Russia welcomes Serbia’s adherence to military neutrality and its rejection of joining the anti-Russian sanctions, Lavrov said during a joint press conference with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. (TASS, 12.15.20)
• Montenegro wants good relations with everyone, but particularly with Russia, the country’s newly-elected Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapic said Dec. 17. The statement comes as no surprise as the new government, which took office on Dec. 7, is considered pro-Russian and pro-Serbian. (bne IntelliNews, 12.18.20)
• The Bosniak and Croat members of Bosnia-Herzegovina's tripartite presidency on Dec. 15 refused to meet with visiting Lavrov following his comments about the peace agreement that ended the Bosnian War in the mid-1990s. (RFE/RL, 12.15.20)
• Finland’s Nordea Bank plans to permanently cease its activities in Russia, the bank’s Russian branch announced Dec. 17. Nordea Bank "will concentrate its activities in the Scandinavian region, therefore it was decided to partially close the international network, including the Russian branch," its statement said. (The Moscow Times, 12.18.20)
• Russia’s four-year ban from global sporting events has been halved, in a move that will affect athletes competing at the next two Olympic Games, but could end the long-running fallout from its state-sponsored doping scandal. This decision means that, although some Russian athletes will be allowed to compete at big sporting events, they are able to do so only as “neutral athletes,” while the country’s flag and anthem are barred. (Financial Times, 12.17.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Cooperation between Russia and China in the Asia-Pacific region is an important factor against the backdrop of the United States' deployment of the global missile defense system and U.S. plans for placing intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in this region, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a virtual meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe. Following their negotiations, the parties signed a protocol to the bilateral agreement on notifying each other of ballistic missile and space launches. "The prolongation of the Russia-China intergovernmental agreement on notifying of ballistic missile and space rocket launches for 10 years shows that the relations between both states are based on trust,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement Dec. 15. (Interfax, 12.15.20, TASS, 12.15.20)
• Russia has received a proposal from China to pursue a lunar exploration program together with the European Space Agency, Roscosmos General Director Dmitry Rogozin said. (Interfax, 12.14.20)
• “What about China? We have overlapping interests in many areas. Maybe this or maybe some personal vibes have contributed to the fact that I have good, business-like relations, above all, but at the same time very trusting and friendly relations with President Xi Jinping. This, of course, helps in our work,” Putin told his annual press conference on Dec. 17. (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.20)

Ukraine:

• During his annual press conference, Putin said that “the resolution of the situation in Donbas is directly dependent on Ukraine’s ruling elite.” “They were not able to accomplish much” since the Normandy summit in Paris last December, with many socioeconomic issues still unresolved despite a halt in fighting. Putin said he thinks that’s due to the “lack of political courage” in the Ukrainian ruling class. “Officials in Kyiv have stated publicly that they are not going to follow through on the Minsk agreement, which is backed by international law. … Russia plans to increase its support in Donbass,” Putin said. (The Moscow Times, 12.17.20)
• The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor has said that a preliminary probe found possible war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine that warrant a full investigation by The Hague-based judges. After a six-year preliminary investigation, prosecutor Fatou Bensouda said in a statement on Dec. 11 that "there is a reasonable basis at this time to believe that a broad range of conduct constituting war crimes and crimes against humanity" had been committed during the Ukraine conflict. (RFE/RL, 12.12.20)
• Some 241 Ukrainian citizens are now being held captive in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas, Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Liudmyla Denisova said. (Interfax, 12.12.20)
• The World Bank has approved a new loan for Ukraine intended to help the country hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak provide support for low-income families. The $300 million loan, which was approved late on Dec. 11, comes as the international financial institution has projected that the poverty level in Ukraine could reach 23 percent by the end of the year. (RFE/RL, 12.12.20)
• Ukraine’s offering of dollar Eurobonds was three times oversubscribed Dec. 11, causing the Finance Ministry to raise the final volume by 20 percent, to $600 million, and to push the rate down to 6.2 percent, one full percentage point below the yield for a similar 12-year issue last July. (Ukraine Business News, 12.14.20)
• Over a quarter of the total EU residence permits granted last year were obtained by citizens of Ukraine, who in total were granted 757,000 permits or 25.6 percent of the total number of first residence permits issued. Russia and Belarus each had less than 100,000 permits issued. (SchengenVisaInfo, 12.10.20)
• According to a new sociological survey from the Razumkov Center, 20 percent of respondents from across Ukraine named Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as “politician of the year”—but a much greater portion, 42 percent, deemed him the political “disappointment of 2020.” (bne Intellinews, 12.17.20)
• One of Ukraine’s most influential and outspoken politicians, Gennady Kernes, the mayor of the eastern city of Kharkov, has died of complications from COVID-19. (RFE/RL, 12.17.20)
• Ukrainian lawmakers have approved a bill extending the law on the special status of local self-governance in areas of eastern Ukraine until Dec. 31, 2021. (RFE/RL, 12.15.20)
• The Ukrainian parliament has voted to restore the powers of the National Anti-Corruption Agency as Kyiv is seeking to secure new loans from the International Monetary Fund. (RFE/RL, 12.15.20)
• The U.S. Senate has not yet scheduled a vote and is therefore unlikely to green-light the Trump administration’s choice of retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton to be the next U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, according to the Senate and other sources. (RFE/RL, 12.18.20)
• Hunter Biden disclosed that prosecutors in Delaware were continuing to investigate him for possible federal tax crimes. The investigation appeared focused on his dealings with China and with Burisma Holdings, the Ukrainian gas company. Attorney General William Barr, in the weeks before November's election, instructed prosecutors and senior colleagues to prevent word of investigations into Biden from becoming public. (New York Times, 12.11.20, Wall Street Journal, 12.12.20, Wall Street Journal, 12.14.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Almost half of all migrants living in Russia before the coronavirus pandemic have likely left the country this year, the Russian Interior Ministry said Dec. 16. In a statement cited by the RBC news website, authorities said there are currently 6.3 million foreign citizens in Russia. (The Moscow Times, 12.16.20)
• Since Dec. 10, two deputies from the Russian State Duma, the lower house of parliament, have described Kazakhstan's current territory as being a “gift” from Russia, echoing remarks by Putin in 2014 that “Kazakhs never had any statehood” before the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991. (RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
• Tajikistan has deployed additional troops along its southern border with Afghanistan after Afghan authorities claimed a group of militants from Tajikistan played a major role in the Taliban's capture of an Afghan district last month. (RFE/RL, 12.17.20)
• The Russian army on Dec. 12 reported a violation of the ceasefire that ended the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in November in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. "One case of ceasefire violation was reported on Dec. 11 in the Hadrut district," said a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry, which has deployed peacekeepers to the region. (AFP, 12.13.20)
  • The de facto authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh say dozens of ethnic Armenian soldiers have been captured in a raid by Azerbaijani forces in the breakaway region following last month's cease-fire. (RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
  • Azerbaijani defense officials say four soldiers have been killed since a cease-fire last month. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry statement on Dec. 13 gave few details as to when or where the deaths took place, saying only they occurred in an area that Azerbaijani forces took control of in the fighting that formally ended on Nov. 10. (RFE/RL, 12.13.20)
  • Human Rights Watch says Azerbaijani forces attacked a church in the town of Shushi during recent fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, in what the group said appeared to be a deliberate targeting in violation of the laws of war. (RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
• “The very status of Nagorno-Karabakh should remain unchanged, that is, it should be deferred to the future. The status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh should be fixed, but with the obligatory creation of the possibility of communication between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia [through] the so-called Lachin corridor, that is, it is a communication corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. … As for increasing the number of our peacekeepers, this is possible, but only by agreement with all parties, including the Azerbaijani side,” Putin told his annual press conference on Dec. 17. (Kremlin.ru, translated by Russia Matters, 12.17.20)
• Armenia's embattled prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, who is facing mounting opposition calls for him to step down over last month's cease-fire deal with Azerbaijan, says he alone cannot decide to call early parliamentary elections. (RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
• The planned Turkish-Russian joint monitoring center that will join the effort to keep the peace in line with the ceasefire that in early November ended the six-week Nagorno-Karabakh war is to be established in Agdam province. (bne Intellinews, 12.15.20)
• On Dec. 31, a ban on Turkish imported goods goes into effect in Armenia. (bne Intellinews, 12.17.20)
• Russian and Belarusian authorities last month signed a new cooperation agreement that allows for police and security operations in Belarus by troops from the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia), which is controlled directly by the Kremlin, according to a copy of the deal just made public. An official Belarusian legal portal published the four-page agreement between the Belarusian Interior Ministry and the Federal Service of the Rosgvardia on Dec. 18. (RFE/RL, 12.18.20)
• The EU on Dec. 17 imposed a third round of economic sanctions on dozens of Belarusian individuals and entities over their suspected involvement in a crackdown on ongoing pro-democracy protests. EU ambassadors agreed on a package of economic sanctions on Belarus over its crackdown on opposition protesters, targeting 29 individuals and seven firms or organizations, diplomats say. The measures are said to include bans on conducting business in the 27-member bloc, freezing of assets and travel bans. (RFE/RL, 12.17.20, RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
• The U.S. Senate has unanimously approved the appointment of Julie Fisher, deputy assistant secretary for Western Europe and the EU, as the new ambassador to Belarus. (RFE/RL, 12.16.20)
• Security forces in Belarus detained scores of people as opposition demonstrators staged scattered marches and rallies in Minsk and other cities on Dec. 13 to pressure strongman leader Alexander Lukashenko to make political concessions. The human rights group Vyasna said that nearly 300 people were detained during the protests—with most of the arrests reported in Minsk. (RFE/RL, 12.13.20)
• Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya says it is only "a matter of time" until Lukashenko, who has run the country since 1994, steps aside. In an interview with The New Yorker magazine published on Dec. 13, Tikhanovskaya, who refers to herself as the "leader of democratic Belarus," said that while the almost daily protests over the Aug. 9 election results may lose some momentum during the winter, Lukashenko is "politically bankrupt" and eventually will fall. (RFE/RL, 12.14.20)
• The majority in Moldova’s parliament abrogated the law under which the government is repaying the loans extended by the National Bank of Moldova to the three banks involved in the so-called $1 billion bank frauds from the public budget, on Dec. 16. (bne Intellinews, 12.17.20)
• Leaders of former Soviet republics in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have met online for a virtual summit to discuss issues ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to the situation in the South Caucasus region following the war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Other topics included cooperation on security issues and how CIS members can achieve greater integration. Belarus was announced as the next chairman of the CIS. The next CIS summit was scheduled for Oct. 15, 2021. (RFE/RL, 12.18.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• “It is my belief that Belarusian people need to be given an opportunity to address their issues inside the country, and resolve them calmly. … From what we can see now, unfortunately, this interference is taking place—the informational, political and financial support for the opposition from abroad. Nothing good ever comes from abroad,” Putin told his annual press conference Dec. 17. (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.20)