Russia in Review, Dec. 1-8, 2017

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • “The Russian Federation is open to nuclear cooperation on appropriate international platforms and with all international partners, including the U.S. ... But we have stopped and will continue to prevent any attempts to dictate to us approaches that do not meet Russia's interests,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova was quoted by Regnum as saying on Dec. 6. Zakharova was responding to earlier remarks by U.S. National Security Council official Christopher Ford that “Russia’s withdrawal from almost all aspects of bilateral cooperation on securing nuclear material could result in a reduction in security at certain facilities in Russia’s vast and expansive nuclear complex,” and that “Moscow will need to commit significant financial and human resources to maintain adequate security within its nuclear infrastructure.” (Russia Matters, 12.08.17)
  • Andrei Ivanov of Russia’s Rosatom state nuclear corporation said an inspection of the Mayak plant proves that it wasn’t the source of Ruthenium-106, a radioactive isotope spotted in the air over Europe and Russia in late September and early October. (AP, 12.08.17)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that U.S. military exercises and aggressive rhetoric were causing an unacceptable escalation in tension on the Korean peninsula. (Reuters, 12.07.17)
  • Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament, will be visiting North Korea next year. (Nikkei, 12.04.17)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami plans to visit Russia soon to hold talks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. (Reuters, 12.08.17)
  • EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has urged the U.S. to uphold the Iran nuclear deal in discussions with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (RFE/RL, 12.05.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Dec. 6 that regular meetings between NATO and Russia can only take place once there is progress on Ukraine. “I think there is broad consensus among all the NATO members that there is no normalization of dialogue with Russia today. What dialogue occurs, whether it be through periodic meetings of the NATO-Russia Council—and I say periodic because we are not going to return to regularized calendar meetings,” Tillerson said in Brussels. (U.S. Department of State, 12.06.17, Wall Street Journal, 12.06.17)
  • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says NATO will continue to pursue dialogue with Russia while strengthening its deterrence capabilities and support for partners in Eastern Europe. "We agreed that our approach to Russia decided at the Warsaw Summit in 2016—defense and dialogue—has been effective,” Stoltenberg said. (RFE/RL, 12.06.17)
  • U.S. Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti, the top NATO commander, is to speak with chief of Russian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov in January. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, will retire in December. (Wall Street Journal, 12.07.17, Wall Street Journal, 12.06.17)
  • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said NATO and the EU agreed to work together on improving military mobility within Europe, strengthening the exchange of information in the fight against terrorism and promoting "women’s role in peace and security." (RFE/RL, 12.05.17)
  • OSCE Secretary-General Thomas Greminger said the risk of military confrontation in Europe is rising amid tensions between NATO and Russia. (RFE/RL, 12.07.17)
  • The Pentagon is preparing to spend millions of dollars to repair a Cold War-era air base in Keflavik, Iceland as Washington rushes to keep an eye on a new generation of stealthy Russian submarines slipping into the North Atlantic. (Foreign Policy, 12.04.17)
  • Gen. John Hyten, head of U.S. Strategic Command, said countries like Russia and China are actively building weapons that can target space-based U.S. military assets, like satellites. (CNN, 12.02.17)
  • U.S and Russian ships carrying remotely operated vehicles capable of deep seafloor searches are joining other vessels hunting for an Argentine submarine that went missing in the South Atlantic on Nov. 15. (AP, 12.04.17)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Dec. 8 it was ready for talks with the U.S. to try to keep the INF Treaty alive and that Moscow would comply with its obligations if the U.S. did. Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Kommersant that these talks can take place in “the nearest future.” (Reuters, 12.08.17, Russia Matters, 12.08.17)
  • U.S. National Security Council official Christopher Ford on Nov. 29 revealed that the Russian cruise missile Washington believes is in violation of the INF Treaty is the Novator 9M729, which carries the NATO designation of SSC-8. The 9M729 could be closely related to the Russian Navy’s Kalibr-NK land-attack cruise missile. (The National Interest, 12.07.17)
  • Pope Francis has urged world leaders to turn back from the brink of possible human annihilation, suggesting that some of them had an “irrational” attitude towards nuclear weapons. (Reuters, 12.02.17)

Counter-terrorism:

  • A U.S. federal appeals court is set to hear a second round of arguments in the case of former Russian military officer Irek Hamidullin, who received a life sentence for leading a 2009 Taliban attack on U.S. forces in Afghanistan. (AP, 12.05.17)
  • "I remember telling him that if Franklin Roosevelt could work with Joseph Stalin to defeat Nazi fascism, then certainly Donald Trump could work with Vladimir Putin to defeat Islamic fascism," Blackwater Security founder Erik Prince said in reference to his Jan. 11 conversation with Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian government’s investment fund. (Bloomberg, 12.07.17)

Conflict in Syria:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Dec. 6 that a complete victory had been achieved over Islamic State militants on both banks of the Euphrates River in Syria, that the military operation in the area was now finished and that the focus would switch to a political process that would eventually involve presidential and parliamentary elections. Russia’s Defense Ministry also said Syria has been completely liberated from IS. (The Moscow Times, 12.07.17, Reuters, 12.06.17)
  • The Syrian conflict is likely to drag on and could reignite into full-scale civil war as long as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad remains in power, despite efforts by Russia to paint the conflict as winding down, according to White House officials. Declarations of victory by Assad’s backers are premature, officials said, and only the Geneva talks that can lead to a sustainable settlement. (Bloomberg, 12.05.17)
  • The U.S. and France called on Russia Dec. 6 to deliver the Syrian government delegation to peace talks in Geneva after discussions resumed with no sign of the government attending. After a few days with little apparent progress in the negotiations’ eighth round, U.N. mediator Staffan de Mistura said the government delegation, led by Bashar al-Ja‘afari, was returning to Damascus to “consult and refresh.” “With respect to the Syrian regime and Bashar al-Assad’s role in the peace discussions in Geneva … we have said to the Russians it is important that the Syrian regime be at the table and be part of these negotiations and part of the discussion. … We have left it to the Russians to deliver them to the table,” U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said. (Reuters, 12.06.17, U.S. Department of State, 12.06.17)
  • Russia and the United States have managed to reach greater understanding on anti-terror efforts in Syria thanks to regular contacts between the military, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Dec. 1. Terrorism in Syria will be defeated soon, he said. (TASS, 12.02.17, Interfax, 12.01.17)
  • United Nations special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura has presented a document outlining his vision of a post-war Syria. De Mistura's Nov. 30 paper contains provisions on commitment to Syria's territorial integrity, democratic values and an election process, political pluralism, the Syrian people's right to choose a political, economic and social system without pressure or interference from the outside and other essential principles. (Interfax, 12.02.17)
  • Russian special forces have fought alongside Kurdish-led forces that routed Islamic State east of the Euphrates River and re-established control over Syria’s border with Iraq. Russian Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi said Russian military officers had planned the operation and helped coordinate it from joint headquarters established with the Kurds and local tribes, marking the first official confirmation that Russian ground troops fought alongside the Kurds in a new degree of cohesion. Additionally, Russian warplanes have flown 672 missions in support of Kurdish and other volunteer units fighting east of the Euphrates. (AP, 12.07.17, Reuters, 12.04.17, AP, 12.04.17)
  • Jets believed to be Syrian and Russian struck heavily crowded residential areas in a besieged rebel enclave near Damascus, killing at least 27 people and injuring dozens in the third week of a stepped-up assault. (Reuters, 12.03.17)
  • Six Tu-22M3 long-range bombers carried out a group airstrike in Syria on Islamic State targets in southeast Deir el-Zour, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Dec.3. The Russian air force carried out nearly 420 combat sorties in Syria Nov. 25-Dec. 1. (Interfax, 12.03.17, TASS, 12.01.17)
  • The Black Sea fleet’s Admiral Grigorovich frigate is returning to the Mediterranean Sea, where it will join the Veliky Novgorod and Kolpino submarines. (TASS, 12.04.17)
  • Islamic State has suffered heavy damage in Syria due to the combined efforts of Russia and Iran, which will intensify the anti-terrorist fight in the region, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said after meeting with Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin in Moscow. (Interfax, 12.04.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said in a phone conversation Dec. 4 they are satisfied by the success in eliminating terrorists in Syria. Putin is to visit Egypt on Dec. 11 to meet with Sisi. (TASS, 12.04.17, RFE/RL, 12.07.17)

Cyber security:

  • Russian cybercrime suspect Alexander Vinnik, who is wanted in the U.S. on charges of laundering billions of dollars’ worth of bitcoin, appeared Dec. 6 before Greece’s Supreme Court for a hearing into his extradition to the U.S. A decision will be announced Dec. 13. (AP, 12.06.17)
  • Russian software-maker Kaspersky Lab, whose products are banned for use in federal information systems by the U.S. government, is seeking to remain in the North American market and prove its products have no hidden capabilities. (Bloomberg. 12.07.17)
  • Britain’s cybersecurity agency has told government departments not to use antivirus software from Moscow-based Kaspersky Lab amid concerns about Russian snooping. (AP, 12.02.17)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe countries to strengthen efforts to ensure the safety of the internet on Dec. 7. (Reuters, 12.07.17)

Elections interference:

  • Former national security adviser Michael Flynn promised a business associate before the inauguration of Donald Trump that U.S. sanctions with Russia would be "ripped up" by the incoming administration. (Bloomberg. 12.06.17)
  • According to one witness, within minutes of U.S. President Donald Trump being sworn in, Michael Flynn texted a former business colleague saying they were "good to go" on a plan to work with Russia on building Middle East nuclear reactors. Alex Copson, a managing partner of ACU Strategic Partners, was working with Flynn to promote the project. The U.S. would needed to be involved in a Middle East nuclear project, Copson explained, because it would provide military support to “defend these installations.” (Bloomberg, 12.06.17)
  • Emails among top transition officials suggest that Michael Flynn was far from a rogue actor. After learning that former U.S. President Barack Obama would expel 35 Russian diplomats, the Trump team quickly strategized about how to reassure Russia, fearing that a cycle of retaliation between the U.S. and Russia would keep the spotlight on Moscow's election meddling, tarnishing Trump's victory and potentially hobbling his presidency from the start. As part of the outreach to Moscow, Trump transition adviser K. T. McFarland wrote that Flynn would be speaking with the Russian ambassador hours after Obama's sanctions were announced. (New York Times, 12.02.17)
  • "I had to fire General Flynn because he lied to the Vice President and the FBI. He has pled guilty to those lies," U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Dec. 2. "It is a shame because his actions during the transition were lawful. There was nothing to hide!" Trump also said Dec. 4 that he feels "very badly" for Michael Flynn because his false statements to the FBI have "ruined his life." (Bloomberg, 12.04.17, The Washington Post, 12.04.17)
    • In seeking to explain a Trump tweet, lawyer John Dowd said he wrote and “bollixed up” the tweet in which Trump said he fired Michael Flynn for lying to the FBI and not just misleading U.S. Vice President Mike Pence. (Reuters, 12.04.17)
    • A series of tweets by U.S. President Donald Trump about the investigation into contacts between his 2016 campaign and Russia prompted concerns on Dec. 3 among both Democratic and Republican lawmakers. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said Trump could be wading into “peril” by commenting on the probe. (Reuters, 12.03.17)
  • The Kremlin insisted Dec. 4 that conversations between Michael Flynn and the Russian ambassador to the U.S. didn’t influence Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to sanctions imposed by Trump’s predecessor. (AP, 12.04.17)
  • Konstantin Kosachev, head of the foreign affairs committee in the Russian parliament’s upper house, said he can’t understand why Michael Flynn failed to immediately reveal the whole truth about his contacts with the Russian ambassador. (AP, 12.05.17)
  • As the FBI's Russia investigation draws closer to him, U.S. President Donald Trump on Dec. 3 unleashed an assault on the agency, calling it a biased institution whose reputation for fairness was ''in tatters.” In a series of early-morning tweets, Trump said the FBI's standing was now the ''worst in history.'' Trump condemned James Comey as a liar, saying that ''I never asked Comey to stop investigating Flynn.” (New York Times, 12.03.17)
  • On Dec. 29, 2016, Trump transition adviser K. T. McFarland, wrote in an email to a colleague that sanctions announced by the Obama administration in retaliation for Russian election meddling were aimed at discrediting U.S. President Donald Trump's victory. The sanctions could also make it much harder for Trump to ease tensions with Russia, ''which has just thrown the U.S.A. election to him,'' she wrote. A White House lawyer said on Dec. 1 that she meant only that the Democrats were portraying it that way. (New York Times, 12.02.17)
    • U.S. Sen. Cory Booker questioned on Dec. 4 whether McFarland had been deceptive over the summer regarding her knowledge of discussions between Michael Flynn and the former Russian ambassador. (New York Times, 12.04.17)
  • Conservative operative Paul Erickson, trumpeting his close ties to the National Rifle Association and Russia, told Trump campaign adviser Rick Dearborn in 2016 that he could arrange a back channel meeting between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to an email sent to the Trump campaign. Russia, he wrote, was “quietly but actively seeking a dialogue with the U.S.” and would attempt to use the NRA’s annual convention to make “first contact.” It is not clear how Dearborn handled the outreach. He forwarded a similar proposal, made through conservative Christian advocate Rick Clay, to Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. Alexander Torshin, a deputy governor of the Russian central bank and a key figure in Putin’s United Russia party, was instructed to make contact with the Trump campaign. Maria Butina, a former assistant to Torshin and longtime acquaintance of Erickson, helped Torshin make the request through Clay. (New York Times, 12.03.17)
  • Robert Mueller on Dec. 4 asked a Washington court to deny a petition from former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, indicted in October, for more lenient bail, after he allegedly broke the terms of a deal with prosecutors by ghostwriting an editorial with a Russia-based colleague in an effort to defend his political work in Ukraine. The claim that Manafort had penned the editorial marked the first public assertion of any such connection. The Russian colleague was not identified in court papers. However, Manafort has had a long-standing Russian employee named Konstantin Kilimnik, who ran Manafort’s Kiev office for 10 years. (Financial Times, 12.04.17,The Washington Post, 12.05.17)
    • Attorneys for Paul Manafort acknowledged Dec. 7 that he edited an opinion piece for a Ukraine newspaper, but did not publicly address allegations that he drafted it with a former colleague with ties to Russian intelligence. (The Washington Post, 12.07.17)
    • Oleg Voloshyn, a former spokesman for Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry under ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, said that he drafted the unpublished editorial that U.S. special counsel Robert Mueller accused Manafort of ghostwriting. Voloshyn said he wrote the piece on his own initiative and sent it to Manafort only to check facts and incorporated a few of his suggestions. (Bloomberg, 12.05.17)
  • Blackwater Security founder Erik Prince told U.S. House lawmakers conducting the Russia probe that he discussed U.S. trade policy with Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian investment fund, on Jan. 11 in the Seychelles, but insisted he wasn’t operating as a back channel for the incoming Trump administration. He also said Dmitriev discussed how much his country wished to resume normal trade relations with the U.S. (Bloomberg, 12.07.17)
  • FBI Director Christopher Wray spent the morning being grilled at a hearing of the U.S. House Judiciary Committee about how FBI personnel — particularly a senior counterintelligence agent now the subject of an internal ethics investigation — handled sensitive probes of U.S. President Donald Trump and his former political rival, Hillary Clinton. The agent, Peter Strzok, was removed in July from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. (The Washington Post, 12.07.17)
  • FBI Director Christopher Wray said the department several months ago set up a “foreign influence” task force made up of agents from the cyber, counterintelligence and criminal divisions to “sniff out” efforts to interfere with the 2018 elections. (The Washington Post, 12.07.17)
  • House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes is drafting a contempt resolution against top FBI and Justice Department officials that he plans to file “as quickly as possible,” charging that federal law enforcement officials failed to sufficiently produce documents he has been demanding since the summer, pertaining to a dossier of allegations surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2013 trip to Moscow. (AP, 12.06.17)
  • House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes was cleared by the Ethics Committee of disclosing classified information, opening the way for him to resume full control of the panel’s election interference investigation. (Bloomberg, 12.07.17)
  • One contingent of investigators working for special counsel Robert Mueller focused on whether U.S. President Donald Trump tried to obstruct justice by firing James Comey in May. Prosecutors Brandon Van Grack and Jeannie Rhee have been involved in matters related to Michael Flynn. Another team, led by former head of the Justice Department’s fraud prosecutions Andrew Weissman and foreign bribery expert Greg Andres, queried powerful lobbyists about their interactions with Paul Manafort and campaign adviser Rick Gates. (The Washington Post, 12.02.17)
    • “When they were questioning me, it seemed like they were still trying to get a feel of the basic landscape of the place,” said one witness questioned in late October as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. “I didn’t get the sense they had anything incriminating on the president. Nor were they anywhere close to done.” (The Washington Post, 12.02.17)
  • Deutsche Bank has begun sending information about its dealings with U.S. President Donald Trump to U.S. investigators following a subpoena by special counsel Robert Mueller. (Financial Times, 12.05.17)
  • Special counsel Robert Mueller has spent more than $3.2 million in the opening months of his investigation into Russian election interference and whether U.S. President Donald Trump or anyone close to him colluded in it. (Bloomberg, 12.06.17)
  • Congressional investigators are scrutinizing trips to Europe taken last year by several associates of U.S. President Donald Trump, amid concern they may have met with Kremlin-linked operatives as part of Russian election interference. Several people close to then-candidate Trump visited Europe during and after the campaign, including his son, Donald Trump Jr., Trump lawyer Michael Cohen and foreign policy advisers Carter Page, George Papadopoulos and Jeffrey Gordon. (Politico, 12.06.17)
  • Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, told House lawmakers Dec. 6 that he couldn’t answer questions about what he told his father after a controversial meeting with a Russian lawyer in June 2016, citing attorney-client privilege. (Bloomberg, 12.06.17)
  • Konstantin Sidorkov, an executive at leading Russian social media company Vkontakte, emailed Donald Trump, Jr. and social media director Dan Scavino in January and again in November 2016, offering to help promote Trump’s campaign to its nearly 100 million users. (AP, 12.07.17)
  • Walid Phares, a foreign policy adviser to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, was scheduled to be questioned in private Dec. 8 by the House Intelligence Committee as part of its investigation into Russian election interference. (Bloomberg, 12.07.17)
  • ABC News said it had suspended Brian Ross, its chief investigative correspondent, over an error in his reporting about former national security adviser Michael Flynn. ABC News reported that Flynn, citing a confidant, was prepared to testify that Trump directed him to make contact with Russians when Trump was a presidential candidate. ABC News later issued a correction. “It was shortly after the election, that President-elect Trump directed Flynn to contact Russian officials on topics that included working jointly against ISIS,” ABC News said. (Reuters, 12.02.17)
  • The Kremlin-backed Russian Internet Research Agency operated dozens of Twitter accounts masquerading as local American news sources that collectively garnered more than half-a-million followers. More than 100 news outlets also published stories containing those handles prior to the election, and some were even tweeted by a top presidential aide. These news imposter accounts, which are part of the 2,752 now-suspended accounts that Twitter has publicly disclosed to be tied to the IRA, show how the Russian group sought to build local communities of followers to disseminate messages. (Bloomberg, 12.05.17)
  • Four men, including two FSB officers and one former Kaspersky Lab employee, are being held in Moscow’s high-security Lefortovo Prison on suspicion of treason. Classified as a “state secret,” the entire affair has been kept out of the public eye. But two people “very familiar” with the case say the men were involved in a leak about last year’s Russian attacks on the Democratic National Committee. (The Bell, December 2017)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russian oil output rose to 10.94 million barrels per day in November from 10.93 million in October. The latest figures show Russia cut its oil output by around 307,000 barrels per day from the 11.247 million produced in October 2016, the baseline for the global agreement to reduce output. (Reuters, 12.0.2.17)
  • Operator Novatek PJSC has announced the start of production at Yamal LNG, in which Total SA, China National Petroleum Corp. and China’s Silk Road Fund also hold stakes. The operator, which has been under U.S. sanctions, will send its first cargo to China in recognition of its support and growth. The Yamal region potentially contains more gas than the Persian Gulf. Novatek has said it accumulated enough Arctic resources to produce more than 70 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year, approaching the current capacity in Qatar. “This is for sure a complicated project,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a ceremony attended by the project partners and the energy minister of Saudi Arabia. “But those who started this project took a risk, and the risk was justified, and they succeeded.”  (Bloomberg, 12.07.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih to buy Russian liquefied natural gas in order to spare Saudi Arabia’s oil. (Reuters, 12.08.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • Russian businessmen who have received $300 million or more from state coffers could be targeted by U.S. sanctions next year, The Bell reported on Dec. 8. On Dec. 5, Reuters reported that wealthy Russians have begun preparing for the sanctions by moving their money back to Russia, reversing a trend of capital flight. Rosneft Oil has racked up more than $17 billion worth of debt in 2017, its biggest year of borrowing on record, under the threat of new sanctions. (Bloomberg, 12.04.17, The Moscow Times, 12.08.17)
  • "I'm not going to tell you specifically what we get. We get progress, that's what we get," U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in Vienna Dec. 7 following talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "We get dialogue, we get cooperation and we don't have it solved. You don't solve it in one meeting." (RFE/RL, 12.07.17)
  • In his first major interview with Russian media, the new U.S. ambassador to Russia, Jon Huntsman, said he plans to restore trust between the two countries, despite worsening relations. “I did not meet a single person—and I have literally met everyone, starting with the president—who would not talk about the need to improve relations with Russia,” Huntsman said. When asked how to improve relations, Huntsman talked about the need for Russia to openly discuss its election meddling. (The Moscow Times, 12.04.17)
  • U.S. consulates in three Russian cities will resume interviews for nonimmigrant visa applicants next week, less than four months after those operations were suspended following Moscow's order for deep cuts in U.S. diplomatic staff. (RFE/RL, 12.04.17)
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry has denounced the U.S. for continuing to limit the number of visas issued to Russian citizens, even as it welcomed the decision to resume services at U.S. consulates. (The Moscow Times, 12.06.17)
  • U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman has canceled a trip to Russia's Far East after local officials "were uniformly unable to find time" to meet with him. (RFE/RL, 12.01.17)
  • Russia on Dec. 5 named Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and seven affiliated news services as foreign agents, in retaliation for similar U.S. moves against Russian network RT. On Dec. 6, Russia’s lower house of parliament banned Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty from entering its premises. (The Washington Post, 12.05.17, The Washington Post, 12.05.17)
  • Moscow on Dec. 6 accused U.S. intelligence services of trying to recruit Russian journalists working in the United States. “Recently Russian journalists, including those in the U.S., have come under great pressure from the special services, notably through attempts at recruitment," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. (RFE/RL, 12.07.17)
  • Russia’s state agricultural watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor accused PepsiCo this week of stealing its internal documents and engaging in “commercial espionage.” The saga began Dec. 4 when Rosselkhoznadzor published a report on its website claiming that the American multinational illegally obtained access to its internal service documents. (The Moscow Times, 12.06.17)
  • The Washington, D.C. city council took up legislation to rename a public square located in front of Russia’s Embassy in memory of slain opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. (RFE/RL, 12.07.17)
  • Mikhail Lesin, a onetime senior Russian political aide who died in 2015 in a Dupont Circle hotel room, had been drinking heavily over the three days before his body was found. (The Washington Post, 12.04.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Dec. 6 that he would seek a fourth term as president in a March election he is expected to win. A full, six-year term until 2024 would make his 24-year tenure--including his years as prime minister—the longest by a Russian leader since Joseph Stalin sat in the Kremlin for 29 years. It is widely believed that Putin wants to use what should be his last term, barring further constitutional changes, to cement his place as one of the more important historical figures ever to rule Russia. Putin has not decided yet whether to run as an independent candidate or secure support from the ruling party. (New York Times, 12.06.17, AP, 12.07.17)
  • People close to the Kremlin and independent observers believe the Kremlin will start amending the constitution next year to secure Russian President Vladimir Putin’s long-term future beyond what would be his last term under current rules. One idea under discussion is to transform the State Council, an advisory body to the president, into a powerful main governing body. Another concept calls for merging the government into the presidential administration, as in the U.S. (Financial Times, 12.04.17)
  • Only 24 percent of Russians said they would definitely vote in the March 2018 elections, according to a Levada Center poll conducted in late November. Thirty-four percent said they were likely to cast their vote, and 54 percent of respondents said they would vote for Russian President Vladimir Putin. (The Moscow Times, 12.04.17)
  • Russia will not boycott the upcoming Olympic Games in South Korea, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Dec. 6. Amid criticism that Russia’s leadership has failed to acknowledge any responsibility in the doping scandal, Putin appeared to make a half-apology before hinting that the sanctions are politically motivated. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says the state will never acknowledge the accusation of state-sponsored doping. (The Moscow Times, 12.06.17, AP, 12.07.17)
  • Grigory Rodchenkov, key whistleblower in uncovering Russia’s state-sponsored doping scheme, reportedly fears for his life following the International Olympic Committee’s Dec. 5 decision to bar the Russian national team from the 2018 Winter Games. (The Moscow Times, 12.06.17)
  • Russia's Justice Ministry will reportedly begin adding the first international media outlets to a new list of "foreign agents" this week. The ministry has also added an association of truck drivers opposed to a controversial road tax to this registry. (Reuters, 12.04.17, The Moscow Times, 12.01.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked the Prosecutor-General's Office to review the implementation of laws and regulations affecting the right of Russian citizens to assemble and demonstrate freely. (RFE/RL, 12.02.17)
  • Russian conglomerate Sistema said on Dec. 8 it had filed a 330.5 billion rouble ($5.6 billion) lawsuit against oil giant Rosneft, retaliating against $4.5 billion in legal claims made against it by Rosneft. (Reuters, 12.08.17)
  • Russia's newest nuclear reactor, Rostov 4, has started up for the first time. It is the third reactor to start at the site in just seven years, state nuclear corporation Rosatom noted. (World Nuclear News, 12.07.17)

Defense and aerospace:

  • The newspaper Vedomosti has learned that in 2015, the Russian army lost 626 soldiers, after losing 790 a year earlier. Russia lost another 596 and 630 soldiers in 2013 and 2012, respectively. These deaths were reported in a state procurement order for 2018-2019 insurance on Russian soldiers, according to Vedomosti. The military doesn’t say how these thousands of servicemen died. (Meduza, 12.04.17)
  • Barguzin, the project to develop a rail-mobile ICBM, appears to have been cancelled again. A source in the defense industry, quoted in the Russian press, says the program has been closed "at least for the time being." (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 12.02.17)
  • On Dec. 2, Russia’s air force successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1b launcher from the Plesetsk test site. The satellite delivered into orbit received the official designation of Cosmos-2524. It is reported to be a Lotos-S1 electronic reconnaissance satellite. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 12.02.17)
  • The Russian military says two Tu-95 strategic bombers have flown a patrol mission over the Southern Pacific after taking off from Indonesia, part of Moscow’s efforts to restore its Cold War-era military foothold around the world. (AP, 12.07.17)
  • Russia’s Western Military District will hold more than 1,500 exercises in the 2018 training year. (TASS, 12.04.17)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Members of a European torture prevention committee have been allowed into Chechnya this week for inspections, following reports that seven people were abducted in the republic in November. (The Moscow Times, 12.06.17)
  • Prosecutors have asked for a 10-year prison sentence and a fine of 500 million rubles ($8.5 million) for former Russian Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev. Ulyukayev, charged with bribery, on Dec. 7 accused Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin of setting him up and apologized for “turning back on other people’s misfortunes.” Ulyukayev also warned the Kremlin elite that any one of them could be next in the dock. (The Moscow Times, 12.04.17, AP, 12.07.17, Bloomberg, 12.07.17)
  • A Moscow court has ruled to keep Kirill Serebrennikov, prominent theater and film director who is being investigated for fraud, under house arrest. A confiscation order has been placed on Serebrennikov’s property in Germany, including an apartment, cars and cash. (The Moscow Times, 12.08.17, AP, 12.04.17)
  • A Russian court has sentenced Dmitry Krepkin to 1 ½ years in prison for resisting police at an anti-corruption rally organized by opposition leader Alexei Navalny earlier this year. (The Moscow Times, 12.07.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Germans see U.S. President Donald Trump as a bigger challenge for German foreign policy than authoritarian leaders in North Korea, Russia or Turkey, according to a survey by the Koerber Foundation. Twenty-six percent of respondents were most worried about Germany’s ability to cope with inflows of refugees, while relations with Trump and the United States ranked second, with 19 percent describing them as a major challenge, followed by Turkey at 17 percent, North Korea at 10 percent and Russia at 8 percent. (Reuters, 12.05.17)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Dec. 8 that the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital by the U.S. runs counter to common sense. (Reuters, 12.08.17)
  • A French judge has ordered prominent Russian businessman and lawmaker Suleiman Kerimov to pay a 40 million euro ($47.25 million) bail for his release pending a tax fraud and money laundering investigation. (Reuters, 12.06.17)
  • Hungarian prosecutors have filed charges against a Hungarian member of the European Parliament for allegedly spying for Russia. Bela Kovacs, a member of Hungary's radical nationalist Jobbik party, is accused of "spying against EU institutions" and "engaging in espionage in the interests of a foreign state." (RFE/RL, 12.07.17)
  • Polish military police say they have detained Gen. Piotr Pytel, former head of Poland’s military counterintelligence services for further questioning over alleged illegal cooperation with Russian security services in 2010. (AP, 12.06.17)
  • Finland should remain militarily neutral because it helps ensure security in the Baltic Sea region, Finnish Prime Minister Juha Sipila said. (Reuters, 12.04.17)
  • Finland’s defense ministry says a Russian Tupolev Tu-154 likely violated the country’s airspace. (AP, 12.05.17)

China:

  • No significant developments.

Ukraine:

  • The U.S. would “badly” like to lift sanctions against Russia but will not do so until Moscow has pulled its forces out of eastern Ukraine and Crimea, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Dec. 7, naming that the main obstacle to normal ties. “The issue that stands in the way is Ukraine,” Tillerson said. “Russia’s aggression in Ukraine remains the biggest threat to European security, and demands continued transatlantic unity in confronting that threat.” (Reuters, 12.07.17, AP, 12.07.17, U.S. Department of State, 12.06.17)
  • U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Dec. 6 he is hopeful that Moscow and Washington can bridge differences and agree on a peacekeeping force for Ukraine. "We hope we can close those gaps," Tillerson said. "We think it is vitally important to stop the violence in East Ukraine. People are still dying from that violence." (Wall Street Journal, 12.06.17)
  • "When everything is agreed, we will make an announcement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said regarding a statement made by U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman that Russian Presidential Aide Vladislav Surkov and U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker will meet next week. (TASS, 12.05.17)
  • More than 2,500 civilians have been killed and 9,000 others injured since the beginning of the conflict in Donbass, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs’ Ukraine 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan. (Interfax, 12.04.17)
  • The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine has confirmed over 400 civilian casualties in the conflict zone in Donbass since the beginning of 2017. (Interfax, 12.04.17)
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin met Dec. 7 with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Vienna. "It was a unique meeting dedicated exclusively to exchange [of prisoners]. We used a brief meeting in the context on the OSCE ministerial forum. I don’t plan further meetings [with Lavrov] in the near future," Klimkin said. Earlier, Russia’s chief negotiator at the Minsk peace talks Boris Gryzlov had expressed hope to organize a prisoner exchange before the holidays. (TASS, 12.08.17, TASS, 12.05.17)
  • Russian Col. Gen. Nikolai Tkachev has been identified as a key figure in the downing of the MH17 in a joint report released Dec. 8 by Bellingcat and The Insider. (The Moscow Times, 12.08.17)
  • Ukraine increased gas production by 3.7 percent in January-October 2017 year-on-year, to 17.255 billion cubic meters. (Interfax, 12.04.17)
  • The International Monetary Fund urged Ukraine to end attacks on its anti-graft agencies, joining a growing chorus of criticism of the country’s reform efforts. Ukraine’s government and parliament should safeguard the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, or NABU, and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office, the IMF said on Dec. 7. The World Bank and U.S. also voiced concerned about Ukraine's willingness to tackle graft. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a Dec. 4 statement that "recent events—including the disruption of a high-level corruption investigation, the arrest of officials from the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine … and the seizure of sensitive NABU files—raise concerns about Ukraine’s commitment to fighting corruption." Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says he has not interfered in the work of state anticorruption agencies, speaking a day after activists and reformist lawmakers managed to derail parliamentary consideration of a bill that would see Artem Sytnyk, the head of NABU, removed. (Bloomberg, 12.07.17, RFE/RL, 12.08.17, RFE/RL, 12.05.17)
  • Ukraine’s parliament has removed the chairman of its anti-corruption committee, a move likely to stoke rising tensions over corruption in the country. The ousted committee head, Yegor Sobolev, said: “The former and present corrupt elite have colluded. Their plan is to break the independence of anti-corruption bodies and replace them with fake ones.” (AP, 12.07.17)
  • Mikheil Saakashvili, who was freed from police custody shortly after law enforcement raided his apartment in Kiev last week, is calling on Ukrainians to demonstrate in the capital’s center on Dec. 10. Police raided a protest tent camp near parliament early on Dec. 6, but Saakashvili was not detained and a 24-hour deadline for him to turn himself in passed without visible action by the authorities. A Dec. 3 demonstration organized by Saakashvili’s Movement of New Forces party attracted 2,500 people, but local reports said about 5,000 people participated. Prosecutors are accusing Saakashvili of colluding with Ukrainian businessmen with ties to Russia to topple Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko has claimed that Saakashvili received $500,000 from fugitive Serhiy Kurchenko for his activities in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 12.08.17, AP, 12.05.17, Interfax, 12.05.17, RFE/RL, 12.03.17)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said the five Caspian states have agreed on "all the outstanding key issues" regarding the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Lavrov made the announcement Dec. 5 after meeting with his counterparts from Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. (RFE/RL, 12.05.17)
  • Kazakhstan’s KazAtomProm will reduce planned uranium production by 20 percent to better align output with demand. The cuts will be enacted for three years beginning in January 2018. (World Nuclear News, 12.04.17)
  • Uzbekistan and Afghanistan have signed an agreement to extend a railroad connecting the two countries in a move that may eventually give Uzbekistan a direct link to sea ports. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani have discussed bilateral ties and regional security at a meeting in Tashkent. (Reuters, 12.05.17, RFE/RL, 12.05.17)
  • Turkmenistan has agreed to seek international arbitration of a dispute with Iran over $1.8 billion that Ashbagat says Tehran owes for natural gas deliveries. (RFE/RL, 12.06.17)
  • Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev on Dec. 7 signed a decree ordering the first mass pardoning of convicts in the country's history. A total of 2,700 convicts were pardoned, and 956 of them will be released from prison. (RFE/RL, 12.07.17)
  • Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has angrily called on companies and business leaders to bring billions of dollars stowed in bank accounts abroad back to Kazakhstan. Nazarbayev warned that he will get involved "personally" if the government fails to make business leaders repatriate their money. (RFE/RL, 12.06.17)
  • Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov is helping the new leader of his native Uzbekistan open up the ex-Soviet state to the outside world and will invest “as much as I can” in the Uzbek economy, he said. (Reuters, 12.04.17)
  • “The U.S. strongly supports Georgia’s membership in NATO and we look forward to completing all the steps for that to happen,” U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said. (U.S. Department of State, 12.07.17)
  • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has expressed NATO’s “strong commitment” to Georgia’s security and called on Russia to withdraw its forces from separatist regions in the Caucasus country. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hailed what he called “a productive discussion” with Georgian Foreign Minister Mikheil Janelidze. (RFE/RL, 12.06.17)
  • The powerful head of Moldova’s ruling party, Vlad Plahotniuc, on Dec. 7 accused Russian authorities of harassing him and other officials with dozens of bogus legal cases, ratcheting up a long-running diplomatic row between the two countries. (Reuters, 12.07.17)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • No significant developments.