4 Things to Know

1. While the Ukrainian armed forces continued to make gains in western Russia this week, hopes that this incursion would force the Russian army to divert enough of its units from eastern Ukraine to stop Russian advances there remained unfulfilled. As of Aug. 15 the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) claimed to control 444 square miles of Russian land, capturing 82 settlements in the Kursk region while also crossing into the Belgorod region. That represented a tripling of AFU’s control of Russian land since Aug. 8, prompting EUCOM’s Christopher Cavoli to describe the incursion as “going quite well” even as one U.S. official described it as a big gamble. In addition to producing territorial gains inside Russia, AFU’s incursion, also reportedly forced the Russian military to dispatch some of its units located in southern, eastern, northeastern parts of Ukraine as well as in Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave to the Kursk region. However, in spite of these redeployments, the Russian army still had enough forces left in Donbas to make gains there, advancing within eight miles of Kyiv-controlled key transport hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on Aug. 16.
2. Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region itself will not drive Russia to the bargaining table, U.S. officials told NYT. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has pledged not to negotiate while Ukraine occupies Russia, and American officials said he should be taken at his word, according to this newspaper. In contrast, Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, believes the incursion can eventually increase chances that Putin will enter negotiations. Podolyak offered the following reasoning behind his claim in an interview with Meduza: “Ukraine believes that the negotiation process with Russia is possible only if it understands that the price of the war for it is increasing. This means that the instruments of coercion must work. One of these instruments is the military defeat of Russia. What is happening in the Kursk region is yet another military defeat of the Russian Federation.”
3. Russia has trained its Navy to target sites deep inside Europe using nuclear-capable missiles in a potential conflict with NATO, according to secret files seen by FT. Russia’s Baltic fleet targets are largely in Norway and Germany—including naval bases, radar sites and special forces facilities, FT reported. In comparison Russia’s Northern Fleet would be expected to hit defense industrial targets, including one in northwest England, according to FT.
4. Ukrainian nationals were allegedly behind destruction of 3 of 4 of pipes of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 in September 2022, WSJ reported. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan, but then ordered a halt after CIA asked him to do so, according to this newspaper. The operation went ahead, nevertheless, being executed by a crew of six, including divers on a yacht, this newspaper reported. Germany has issued an arrest warrant for one of the suspected divers, whose name is reportedly Vladimir Zhuravlev. Ukrainian authorities rejected as "absolute nonsense" suggestions they were involved in the sabotage while Russian sources told Kommersant that they believe the attack could not have possibly executed without involvement of professional explosive experts operating from a submarine rather than from the three-cabin yacht.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• A fire at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine has been "completely extinguished," a Moscow-installed official said on Aug. 12. It was not clear what caused the fire, which started at a cooling tower of the plant at around 8 p.m. on Aug. 11. Russia and Ukraine accused each other of causing the fire. (RFE/RL, RM, 08.12.24)^[1]
• Individual groups of Ukrainian combatants have been detected 30–40 kilometers from the Kursk NPP, according to Russian nuclear security expert Dmitry Kovchegin. (RM, 08.14.24)
  • On the evening of Aug. 9, 2024, a telephone conversation took place between Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev and the head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi. The key topic of the consultations was the situation around the Kursk NPP. During the conversation, Likhachyov emphasized that the actions of the armed forces of Ukraine pose a direct threat to this plant. (Rosatom, 08.09.24, Bloomberg, 08.11.24)
• Some 28 representatives from 14 countries of Asia, Africa, Latin America and the CIS participated in a joint Russia-IAEA five-day training session on management of nuclear knowledge. (Rosatom, 08.14.24)
• Russia’s IVV-2M water-moderated research reactor was commissioned in 1966 and has now been given the go-ahead to operate until the end of 2040. (WNN, 08.15.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• As of Aug. 14 some 180,000 residents in the Kursk region were estimated to have fled their homes. According to Russian officials, 12 people have died and more than 120 have been injured since the start of the incursion into this region by Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.13.24., FT, 08.12.24, FT, 08.14.24, Bloomberg, 08.14.24)
  • Acting Kursk region Governor Alexei Smirnov said he was working in coordination with Yevgeny Balitsky, the Moscow-appointed head of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, to accommodate evacuees in resorts and health spas near the Azov Sea. (MT/AFP, 08.14.24)
  • Kyiv will not create special camps for Russian civilians who want to evacuate amid an ongoing incursion by Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk and Belgorod regions, Ukraine's human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said. (RFE/RL, 08.16.24)
  • The United Nations Human Rights Office said on Aug. 14 that it has asked authorities in Moscow to allow its representatives to visit Russian regions impacted by cross-border attacks from Ukrainian forces. (MT/AFP,08.15.24)
• Ukraine says it has begun talks with Russia over the exchange of prisoners captured by Kyiv as it presses on with its startling counter-incursion in the Kursk region. (FT, 08.15.24)
  • Ukrainian forces said they accepted the surrender of the largest single group of Russian soldiers since the start of the war more than two years ago. A Ukrainian Security Service unit operating in Russia’s Kursk region took 102 Russian servicemen as prisoners-of-war, according to a person with knowledge of the operation. (Bloomberg, 08.16.24)
• Important Stories established the names of 22 conscript soldiers missing in the Kursk region (Istories, 08.14.24)
• On Aug. 16 Ukrainian authorities warned residents near the eastern frontline to evacuate before the arrival of Russian troops. Serhiy Dobriak, head of the military administration in the city of Pokrovsk, said people should leave. (FT,08.16.24)
• Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Aug. 13 that his country had received another 4.2 billion euros ($4.6 billion) from the European Union's Ukraine Facility program. Shmyhal stressed that the money will be spent to support Ukraine's social and humanitarian sectors as part of the country's efforts to resist Russia's ongoing invasion launched in February 2022. (RFE/RL, 08.13.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• On the night of Aug. 9, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed a column of Russian fighters in Rylsk of the Kursk region, who were moving to the aid of the main Russian forces, with a HIMARS attack. (Istories, 08.09.24)
• On Aug. 9, a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast advanced as far east as Plekhovo (southeast of Sudzha) on the left bank of the Psyol River. (ISW, 08.09.24)
• On Aug. 9 Andrei Gurulyov, a retired military officer who is now a member of Russian Parliament, condemned Russia’s response to the incursion and level of preparedness. “There is no military system in place for guarding the state border, no reserves and no second lines of defense,” he said on Telegram, adding, “If the Ukrainian Armed Forces spent two months preparing for this, how did we miss it?” (NYT, 08.10.24)

• On Aug. 9 Ukraine said its special forces conducted an amphibious raid on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit in the Black Sea, killing about 30 Russian soldiers and destroying six armored vehicles. (RFE/RL, 08.09.24)

• On Aug. 10 Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that Ukrainian forces had advanced about 20 miles into Russia. Lukashenko also said without evidence that Ukrainian "targets" had violated Belarusian airspace, prompting the military to shoot them down. The Post has not been able to verify either claim. (WP, 08.10.24)
• On Aug. 10 a video was shared showing fighters from Ukraine's 252nd Territorial Defense Battalion standing outside a building identified as the village club in Poroz—a settlement in Russia's Belgorod region less than two miles from the border. The Washington Post could not immediately verify the video's authenticity or when it was taken. (WP, 08.10.24)
• On Aug. 10 Ukrainian military claimed to have downed a second Ka-52 Russian gunship over the Kursk region, Istories reported. (RM, 08.10.24)
• On Aug. 10 the Russian ministry of defense said Russia’s air defenses downed 26 drones overnight in the Kursk region and another six over the Yaroslavl region northeast of Moscow. (Bloomberg, 08.11.24)
• On the night of Aug. 10 to 11, Ukrainian mobile groups advanced upwards of 25 kilometers into Belovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, according to Russian officials. (ISW, 08.11.24)
• On Aug. 11 verified videos and photographs showed Ukrainian troops and equipment had advanced 30 kilometers inside Russia (FT, 08.11.24)
• On Aug. 11 Russia used four DPRK-made KN-23 ballistic missiles against Ukraine. (RBC.ua, 08.11.24)
• On Aug. 11 Russia’s defense ministry said it downed four missiles and 35 drones over Kursk and neighboring regions. (Bloomberg, 08.11.24)
• On Aug. 11 Russian forces launched missile attacks overnight on Kyiv, killing at least two. (RFE/RL, 08.11.24)
• On Aug. 12 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially confirmed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were conducting an operation in the Kursk region of Russia. “Our operations are purely a security issue for Ukraine, to free areas near the border from Russian troops,” Zelenskiy said in an address to the nation. (Bloomberg, 08.13.24, RBC.ua, 08.13.24)
  • Mykhailo Podolyak, the advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, told Meduza that political goals of Ukraine’s incursion included pushing more of Russian artillery out of ranges in which they can target civilian population; cutting lines of supplies to Russia’s fighting units along the line of contact, take the war to Russia and “show the instability of the Russian [civil] and military leadership.” (RM, 08.14.24)
• On Aug. 12 Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrskyi said that the territory held by his troops in Russia had expanded to 1,000 sq kilometers. Deep State said it had confirmed 800 sq kilometers was under Ukrainian control, with an additional 230 sq kilometers yet to be verified. According to an AFP analysis of data provided by the Institute for the Study of War, as of Aug. 12 Ukraine controlled at least 800 square kilometers (308 square miles) of territory in Russia's Kursk region (FT, 08.13.24, AFP, 08.13.24)
• On Aug. 12 Vladimir Putin abruptly interrupted Kursk regional governor Alexey Smirnov who said Ukraine’s military had taken control of 28 towns and villages in Russia’s Kursk border region, prompting a sixth of its population to flee. Putin told a meeting on current issues in Novo-Ogaryovo: “These actions clearly aim to achieve a primary military objective: to halt the advance of our forces in their effort to fully liberate the territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics, the Novorossiya region… another clear objective of the enemy is to create discord and division within our society… It goes without saying that the main objective for the Defense Ministry is to force the adversary to withdraw from our territory.” (Kremlin.ru, 08.12.24, Bloomberg, 08.13.24)
  • On Aug. 12 Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov described the conflict as an "armed standoff between Russia and the collective West," which he said was "caused by the aspirations of the United States and its allies to maintain their dominance and to prevent the emergence of a new equal multipolar world order." (WP, 08.13.24)
• On Aug. 12 Ukrainian soldiers on filmed themselves ripping down the Russian flag from an administrative building in Guyevo, about three kilometers inside the Kursk region. (FT, 08.13.24)
• On Aug. 12 Oleksandr Bordiian, a spokesman for Ukraine’s 32nd Separate Mechanize Brigade, which is fighting near Toretsk in eastern Ukraine, told the Ukrainian news media that Ukraine’s attacks in the Kursk region “have not yet had any impact on the density of assaults and shelling in our direction.” ''Our guys do not feel any relief,'' said Artem Dzhepko, a press officer with Ukraine's National Police Brigade, which is fighting near the strategically important town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. (NYT 08.12.24, NYT, 08.14.24)
  • On Aug. 13 Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Army, told the Ukrainian news media that Russia had moved some units from the southern Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro to other areas of the fighting. That included the Kursk region of western Russia, he said. (NYT, 08.14.24)
  • Russia has shifted troops from the Kharkiv front, but so far it has moved far fewer from the vital Donbas front. “Their commanders aren’t idiots,” says the Ukrainian general-staff source. “They are moving forces, but not as quickly as we would like. They know we can’t extend logistics 80 or 100 kilometers.” (The Economist, 08.11.24)
  • On Aug. 13 Russia was reported to be withdrawing some of its military forces from Ukraine to respond to the Ukrainian offensive into the Kursk region, U.S. officials said, the first sign that Kyiv’s incursion is forcing Moscow to rejigger its invasion force. Ukraine, meanwhile, sent tanks and other armored vehicles to reinforce the incursion. (WSJ, 08.13.24)
• On Aug. 13 Zelenskiy’s office posted a video of his meeting in Kyiv with Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas, who said Russia had moved some military units from its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad in response to the Ukrainian intervention in Kursk, without giving further details. (Bloomberg, 08.14.24)
  • Russian sources claimed as of Aug. 12 and 13 elements of the Russian "Pyatnashka" Brigade's "Sarmat" Battalion and the Russian Volunteer Crops recently transferred to Kursk Oblast. (ISW, 08.13.24)
• On Aug. 13 Ukrainian forces were reported to have advanced at least 20 miles into Russian territory since launching the surprise assault on August 6. Ukraine’s top military commander said Ukrainian forces were advancing and had taken control of 74 Russian towns and villages. On Aug. 13 Zelensky posted on social media that Ukrainian forces had seized some 74 settlements in Kursk and were treating civilians there humanely. (WP, 08.14.24, (WSJ, 08.13.24, RBC.ua, 08.13.24)
• On Aug. 13 Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhi was quoted as saying Kyiv wasn’t interested in occupying Russian territory. (WSJ, 08.13.24)
• On Aug. 13 Putin was reported to have appointed his aide and former bodyguard Alexei Dyumin to oversee Russia’s military response to the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. Subsequently, however, Russian war correspondent Aleskandr Sladkov said no such appointment was made. (MT/AFP, 08.13.24, Business-gazeta.ru, 08.13.24)
• On the night of Aug. 13–14 Ukraine launched what it described as the war’s largest drone attack on Russian airfields. Russia’s defense ministry said that Ukraine had fired 117 drones, as well as missiles, not only in the Kursk region where Ukrainian troops had seized territory, but also in the regions of Voronezh, Belgorod and Nizhny Novgorod. It did not confirm the attacks had targeted its air bases. (FT, 08.14.24, Meduza, 08.14.24)
• As of Aug. 15 Ukraine controlled 1,150 square kilometers (444 square miles) of Russian territory, including 82 villages and towns, Syrskyi told Zelenskiy. The claims couldn’t be independently verified. (Bloomberg, 08.16.24)
  • On Aug. 15 Zelenskiy said Syrskyi reported to him the “successful liberation of the city of Sudzha from Russian forces… A Ukrainian military commandant’s office is being established there,” Zelenskiy said, adding that “several other settlements have also been liberated. In total, more than eighty.” (The Guardian, 08.15.24)
  • On Aug. 15 Ukraine's offensive into Russia was reported to have expanded to the region of Belgorod, with fierce fighting underway there. (WP, 08.15.24)
• On Aug. 15 Syrskyi said "The situation in the east and south of Ukraine remains complex, but controllable. A defensive operation is underway. The main efforts are focused on preventing the enemy from advancing in the direction of Toretsk and Pokrovsk.” (Korrespondent.net, 08.15.24)
  • On Aug. 15 Russia's military claimed that its forces captured Ivanivka, a frontline village just 15 kilometers (nine miles) from the Kyiv-held transport hub of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 08.15.24)
  • As of Aug. 14 Russian forces were maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritize advances in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is pressuring Russian forces within Kursk Oblast. Russian forces were continuing to pursue a tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk (ISW, 08.15.24)
  • As of Aug. 16 after capturing several villages in the area and pushing along a railway line, Russian forces were now about eight miles from Pokrovsk. The capture of the city would bring Russia a step closer to its long-held goal of seizing the entire Donetsk region, much of which it already controls. Pokrovsk, a city with a prewar population of about 60,000, sits on a key road, Highway T054, linking several cities that form a defensive arc protecting the part of Donetsk that is still held by Ukraine. (NYT, 08.16.24)
  • On Aug. 16 Serhiy Dobriak, head of the military administration in the city of Pokrovsk, said Russian forces had advanced within 10 kilometers of the city. (FT, 08.16.24)
• On  August 15 Ukraine’s OSINT group DeepState reported in its Telegram channel that the Ukrainian army took Vnezapnoye  in the Kursk region while the Russian army  enemy advanced near Pishchane in the Kharkiv region and in Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region . Both of these settlements were marked as occupied by Russian forces on DeepState’s map as of August 16. (RM, 08.16.24)
• On Aug. 16 Russia said that it had repelled a night-time attack using 12 U.S.-made missiles on the landmark Crimea Bridge built on the orders of President Vladimir Putin after Moscow annexed the peninsula. (MT/AFP, 08.16.24)
• On Aug. 14 President Biden told reporters that Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia — the biggest foreign incursion into the country since World War II—has put the Kremlin in a bind. He acknowledged that U.S. officials have been in touch with their Ukrainian counterparts during the operation. “It’s creating a real dilemma for Putin, and we’ve been in direct contact—constant contact—with the Ukrainians,” Mr. Biden said. “That’s all I’m going to say about it while it’s active.” (NYT, 08.15.24)
  • While Biden’s administration and the European Union have given their blessing as the first military presence on Russian soil since World War II unfolds, NATO allies have so far withheld judgment. (Bloomberg, 08.13.24)
  • “We support Ukraine in a war that is a defensive war and there is nothing to discuss here,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told reporters in Warsaw on Aug. 13. “I am aware and we all know what the risks are.” (Bloomberg, 08.13.24)
  • Ukraine’s incursion into a sliver of Russia is likely to make it harder for Moscow to mount a major renewed offensive in Ukraine’s east and is the kind of surprise operation that could eventually impose real costs on the Kremlin, according to U.S. officials. (NYT, 08.15.24)
  • On Aug. 15 NATO’s top military commander, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, said the incursion had succeeded so far. “Suffice it to say that it appears to be going quite well,” he said during a talk at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “They found an area of weakness in the Russians’ position, and they exploited it quickly and have exploited it very skillfully,” said General Cavoli. Cavoli said the operation “had a very good galvanizing effect on [Ukraine’s] population and on the military itself.” “It’s had a shocking effect on the Russians,” the general said. “They’re shocked by it. That won’t persist forever. They’ll gather themselves together and react accordingly.” (NYT, 08.15.24)
  • Ukraine’s operation has elicited giddy praise from Senators Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, and Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, who met privately with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv this week, urged increased military support for Ukraine. (NYT, 08.15.24)
  • Ukrainian officials have told senior American civilian and military leaders that the goal of the operation is to create an operational dilemma for the Russians—to force Moscow to divert troops off the front lines in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine that have made slow but steady progress for weeks. (NYT, 08.15.24)
  • On Aug. 12 U.S. officials said that Russia had withdrawn some infantry units from Ukraine and was sending them to Kursk to help defend against the Ukrainian offensive. They would not say how many troops Russia appeared to be moving or exactly where they were coming from. But the officials said they had not yet seen the Kremlin divert armored battalions and other combat power that they believe Russia would need to repel the incursion. It is doubtful Ukraine will have enough forces to capitalize on any Russian weakness in Donetsk. One senior U.S. official called the operation a big gamble. (NYT, 08.15.24)
  • Two senior U.S. officials told CNN that Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied territory inside Ukraine to counter a surprisingly successful Ukrainian offensive inside Russian borders in a move that potentially weakens Moscow’s war effort, (CNN, 08.15.24)
• Though the Ukrainians were getting outshot by Russian artillery at a rate of 20 to 1 before the $60 billion U.S. supplemental aid package to Kyiv passed Congress in April, they are still getting outfired by a ratio of 8 to 1, said Yehor Cherniev, a Ukrainian lawmaker (FP, 08.14.24)
• Dmytro Lazutkin, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said the mobilization drive is going well: 4.6 million men have updated their data since the new law was passed, and more than 3,000 people have voluntarily applied to join the armed forces over the last three months, a sharp increase. Meanwhile, smugglers charge up to $15,000 to get men out of the country illegally. (WSJ, 08.10.24)
• Major Nazariy Kishak is in charge of one of the most unusual units in Ukraine’s week-old Kursk operation. It is not just his riotous style of command. A quarter of his 200-strong unit are convicts, released under a new scheme that trades sentences for service. (The Economist, 08.15.24)
• The Russian military isn’t getting enough new soldiers to keep pace with frontline losses that are at their highest since the February 2022 invasion began, according to three people close to the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry, asking not to be identified because the issue is sensitive. Regional officials are now failing to meet more than a third of their recruitment quotas on average, a person familiar with the situation said. The situation may force Russia to consider a new mobilization, according to two of the people. a draft may be ordered as soon as the end of this year. (Bloomberg, 08.13.24)
• In using bikes, the Russians seem to be favoring speed over armor. Infantry ride into battle on dirt bikes sometimes described as military golf buggies, these Chinese vehicles can carry four people swiftly over rough terrain. The journey is usually less than 10 kilometers. The bikers travel in small columns, often of four or five vehicles. They ride right up to Ukrainian trenches before dismounting. (The Economist, 08.13.24)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested an employee of a military unit in southern Russia for allegedly passing information to Ukraine, state media reported Aug. 13. The woman, a resident of the city of Rostov-on-Don, reportedly joined a unit in the Southern Military District in January 2023. There, she gathered “information on arsenals, bases and depots,” the FSB was quoted as saying by the TASS news agency. (MT/AFP 08.13.24)
• A court in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson has sentenced Ukrainian citizen Iryna Horobtsova to 10 1/2 years in prison after convicting her of espionage, the Russian Prosecutor-General’s Office said on Aug. 15. (RFE/RL, 08.16.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The United States on Aug. 9 announced $125 million in new military aid for Kyiv as Ukrainian forces push ahead with a surprise offensive inside Russian territory. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the aid would be drawn from stockpiles and "includes air-defense interceptors, munitions for rocket systems, artillery, multimission radars, and anti-tank weapons." (RFE/RL, 08.09.24)
• Ukraine’s finance minister has called on its western allies to speed up disbursement of a $50 billion loan, claiming delays in weapons deliveries had contributed to a yawning budget deficit that has left Kyiv scrambling to find money to pay its army. Serhiy Marchenko told the Financial Times that the slow dispersal of weapons, especially from the U.S., had contributed to a $12 billion rise in military spending. The $12 billion rise meant the country was set to record a deficit that other government officials have estimated at just under a quarter of GDP, or $43.5 billion, this year. (FT, 08.11.24)
•  Ukrainian troops have used British Challenger 2 tanks in their offensive inside Russia. (Sky News, 08.15.24)
• On Aug. 14 U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke by phone to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. (Bloomberg, 08.16.24)
• U.S. President Joe Biden spoke to Elon Musk about aid to Ukraine, appearing to suggest that the EU should match its spending to the U.S.. "I say, 'why aren't you going to equalize?' Why aren't they paying what we're paying?" Trump told Musk. "Why is the United States paying disproportionately more to defend Europe than Europe? That doesn't make sense. That's unfair, and that is an appropriate thing to address." (Euronews, 08.13.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Russian businesses saw a massive jump this year in the amount of cash piling up abroad as the threat of secondary financial sanctions from the U.S. causes increasing delays in international trade settlements. Foreign financial assets increased by almost $45 billion in the first seven months compared with a gain of $21 billion in the same period the previous year, according to Bank of Russia data published Aug. 13. While some of that is investment abroad, the surge is mainly an accumulation of Russian companies’ accounts receivable due to difficulties with international payments, the central bank said. (Bloomberg, 08.14.24)
• Of all the sanctions imposed on Russia, perhaps the financial ones work best. In addition to the freezing of reserves, this is the disconnection of most large banks from SWIFT (actually from payments in dollars and euros) and the threat of secondary sanctions against third-country banks that help Russia. Because of this, they are afraid of making payments related to Russia and carefully check them, and paying for goods has turned from a routine into a puzzle. (Istories, 08.15.24)
• The Russian division of Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank will suspend foreign currency transfers for nearly all of its clients in the country starting next month. (MT/AFP, 08.15.24)
• Russian-Israeli oligarch Mikhail Fridman has filed a $16 billion claim against Luxembourg over its decision to freeze his assets after he was placed on the European Union's sanctions list. (Politico, 08.14.24)
• U.S. banks can block the accounts of Russian citizens when using their services on the territory of Russia. American credit organizations can learn about such use from the client's Russian IP address. (RBC, 08.16.24)
• Bulgarian national Milan Dimitrov has been extradited to the United States where he is charged with participating in a scheme to illegally export sensitive microelectronics to Russia. Dimitrov made his initial appearance in a federal court in San Antonio, Texas, after being extradited from Greece on Aug. 12, the U.S. Department of Justice said. (RFE/RL, 08.14.24)
• Russian ownership ended in 621 Ukrainian companies since February 2024. (Korrespondent.net, 08.14.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region itself will not drive Russia to the bargaining table, according to U.S. officials. Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has pledged not to negotiate while Ukraine occupies Russia, and American officials said he should be taken at his word. But in public speeches, the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, has spoken about the need to puncture the hubris of Mr. Putin. Russia will not make any concessions, he has said, until Mr. Putin’s overconfidence is challenged and Ukraine shows strength on the battlefield. (NYT, 08.15.24)
• On Aug. 12 Putin told a meeting on current issues in Novo-Ogaryovo:” It appears that the enemy, with the support from their Western backers, is executing their directives, and the West is using Ukrainians as proxies in this conflict. It seems the opponent is aiming to strengthen their negotiating position for the future. However, what kind of negotiations can we have with those who indiscriminately attack civilians and civilian infrastructure, or pose threats to nuclear power facilities? What is there to discuss with such parties?” (Kremlin.ru, 08.12.24)
• Mykhailo Podolyak, the advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, told Meduza, “The negotiation process must be based on international law. And in international law there is a clear concept of "sovereignty". Ukraine believes that the negotiation process with Russia is possible only if it understands that the price of war for it is increasing. This means that the instruments of coercion must work. One of these instruments is the military defeat of Russia. What is happening in the Kursk region is yet another military defeat of the Russian Federation.” (RM, 08.14.24)
• Ukraine’s surprise attack inside Russia is the only way to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table as part of a “psychological” tactic to win the war, president Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, has told The Independent. (Independent, 08.16.24)
• Markus Faber, head of the Bundestag Defense Committee stated that the Kursk operation lays the groundwork for negotiations with the successor to Putin. Faber noted that the operation against Russian forces near Kursk is going better than expected. (RBC.ua, 08.11.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. President Joe Biden is to blame for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Donald Trump said as he spoke to tech billionaire Elon Musk in an interview on X on Aug. 12. Trump said Moscow would never have invaded had Biden not been in office. Trump argued that his "strong" relationship with Putin could have prevented the conflict, saying that he had even told Putin not to take action. "I got along with (Russia's President Vladimir) Putin very well, and he respected me," Trump told Musk. "We would talk about Ukraine. It was the apple of his eye. But I told him, don't do it… You can't do it, Vladimir. He said 'no way', and I said 'way'," Trump said. (Euronews, 08.13.24)
• In order to prevent Russia from attacking NATO territory, Germany must be fit for war, says Michael Giss, Commander of the Bundeswehr's Hamburg State Command. “my internal clock as a soldier is running and tells me that in five years we must be socially resilient enough to withstand an external military threat,” he said. (Die Welt, 08.11.24)
• Croatia is bringing back compulsory military service for men from next year, part of the NATO member’s effort to boost its defense preparedness. (Bloomberg, 08.16.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Chinese and Russian long-range bombers patrolled together near Alaska for the first time last month. . ...By taking off from a Russian air base in Chukotka, nuclear-capable Chinese bombers were able to fly about 200 miles from the Alaskan coast, a distance that would have been unreachable taking off from China (NYT, 08.13.24)
• The recent joint exercises of Chinese and Russian warships in the Gulf of Finland comply with international law and were not directed against any specific targets, said Chinese Defense Ministry Spokesman Zhang Xiaogang. (TASS, 08.16.24)
• Rosatom has shipped the reactor pressure vessel and the steam generator being the critical equipment of the reactor hall for the fourth power generation unit of the Xudapu nuclear power plant in China, Russian nuclear corporation’s press service said. (TASS, 08.14.24)

Missile defense:

• Poland signed a $1.2 billion agreement with Raytheon Technologies Corp. to produce components for Patriot air-defense batteries as Warsaw seeks to bolster its defenses. (Bloomberg, 08.12.24)

Nuclear arms:

• Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe using nuclear-capable missiles in a potential conflict with NATO, according to secret files seen by FT. The files include a target list for missiles that can carry either conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. Russian officers highlight the advantages of using nuclear strikes at an early stage. (FT, 08.13.24)
  • Russia’s Baltic fleet targets are largely in Norway and Germany — including the naval base in Bergen, as well as radar sites and special forces facilities. (FT, 08.13.24)
  • Russia’s Northern Fleet would be expected to hit defense industrial targets, such as the submarine shipyard at Barrow-in-Furness in north-west England. A target near Hull may be an industrial site— it is marked with a smokestack. (FT, 08.13.24)
  • The presentation also references the option of a so-called demonstration strike — detonating a nuclear weapon in a remote area “in a period of immediate threat of aggression” before an actual conflict to scare western countries. Russia has never acknowledged such strikes are in its doctrine. Such a strike, the files say, would show “the availability and readiness for use of precision non-strategic nuclear weapons” and the “intention to use nuclear weapons.” (FT, 08.13.24)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russia’s Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said Aug. 12 that developing artificial intelligence, robots and drones is crucial for ensuring Moscow’s victory in its ongoing confrontation with the West. (MT/AFP, 08.12.24)
• Russian spy agencies are using deep knowledge about foreign and domestic opponents, reporters and human rights groups to target them with well-crafted phishing attacks, in some cases successfully, according to the groups and security researchers. Reports published by Access Now and Canadian research nonprofit Citizen Lab include samples of the emails sent during the past two years to targets such as Russian rights organization First Department, which represents Russians accused of treason or espionage. (WP, 08.14.24)
• FBI agents probing alleged Iranian hacking attempts directed at the Trump and Biden-Harris campaigns have gathered evidence that indicates one of the targets was senior Trump adviser Susie Wiles, multiple people familiar with the investigation told The Washington Post. (WP, 08.16.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s efforts to bolster its so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers in the first half of this year helped to offset the impact of Western sanctions, according to the KSE Institute. Some 74 new vessels started carrying Russian crude in the period, having not done so last year, the institute said in a report. That’s more than the 49 tankers that have been sanctioned. The additional ships help to explain why discounts for Russian oil haven’t been widening, it said. (Bloomberg, 08.14.24)
• The Russian government announced Aug. 14 that it was reintroducing a ban on gasoline exports for another six months to "maintain a stable situation" on the domestic fuel market after major price hikes. The government said in a statement that it has "brought in a restriction on exports of gasoline from Sept. 1 to Dec. 31, 2024." (MT/AFP,08.14.24)
• Imports of pipeline gas in the EU rose by 2 percent last month, while overall its supplies from Russia to Europe increased by 3.1 bln cubic meters year-to-date, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) reported. (TASS, 08.16.24)
• After a Russian offensive in the spring homed in on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including pumping facilities for gas storage, European volumes in June and July dropped to just a tenth of the quantities stored over the same period last year. (FT, 08.12.24)
• Russia and Ukraine intend to keep pipeline gas flowing to Europe even as fighting continues near a key cross-border transit point for the fuel. Both sides have no intention of halting flows via the Sudzha gas-intake station in Russia’s Kursk region, people with knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the information. (Bloomberg, 08.`13.24)
• Ukrainian nationals were allegedly behind planning and executing destruction of 3 of 4 of pipes of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 in September 2022, WSJ reported. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan, but then ordered a halt after CIA asked him to do so, according to this newspaper. The operation went ahead, nevertheless, being executed by a crew of six, including divers on a yacht, this newspaper reported. Germany has issued an arrest warrant for one of the suspected divers, whose name is reportedly Vladimir Zhuravlev. Ukrainian authorities rejected as "absolute nonsense" suggestions they were involved in the sabotage while Russian sources told Kommersant that they believe the sabotage could not have possibly executed without involvement of professional explosive experts operating from a submarine rather than from the 3-cabin yacht. (RM, 08.16.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• The FT has identified more than 1,000 job advertisements posted by the company, formerly known as Schlumberger, since December, seeking roles that range from drivers to chemists and geologists. Searches of Russian trademark and corporate databases show SLB Russian subsidiaries registered two new trademarks in July. (FT, 08.16.24)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A Russian court in Yekaterinburg has sentenced dual U.S.-Russian citizen Ksenia Karelina to 12 years in prison after convicting her of treason for transferring $51 to a Ukrainian aid charity in early 2022. (RFE/RL, 08.15.24)
• Agents of the FBI have raided and searched the Virginia home of Dmitri Simes, a prominent political commentator and author who hosts a current-affairs program on Russia’s state-run Channel One television, the newspaper Rappahannock News reported on Aug. 16. (RFE/RL, 08.16.24)
• U.S. President Joe Biden met with Russian opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza and his family in the White House on Aug. 15. Kara-Murza was released from a Russian prison as part of a large prisoner swap between Moscow and several Western countries on Aug. 1. (RFE/RL, 08.16.24)
• A Moscow court has handed a 15-day sentence to a U.S. citizen, identified as Joseph Tater, on charges of petty hooliganism. Earlier, Russia's Investigative Committee said on Aug. 14 that an American had been detained in Moscow on suspicion of using violence against a police officer. (RFE/RL, 08.15.24)
• The Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies quietly resumed coordinating with the major social media companies earlier this year to fight what government officials warned was a coming onslaught of foreign disinformation and influence operations leading up to the presidential election in November. The communication between government agencies and the platforms has resumed as Russia and Iran have stepped up efforts to interfere in the U.S. presidential election.. (NYT, 08.15.24)
• "I know [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. I know [Chinese] President Xi [Jinping]. I know Kim Jong Un [of North Korea]. They're at the top of their game; they're tough; they're smart; they're vicious -- and they're going to protect their country," Donald Trump said in an interview with billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk broadcast on social media platform X. (TASS, 08.13.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• This year Russian GDP is expected to rise by over 3 percent in real terms, faster than 95 percent of rich countries. (The Economist, 08.11.24)

• At current rates, Russia’s financial reserves will be exhausted in five years or so. (The Economist, 08.11.24)

• Russia's current account balance slipped into a deficit of $0.5 billion in July for the second time since the war in Ukraine began, falling from a surplus of $5.1 billion recorded in June, according to data released by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) on Aug. 14. (BNE, 08.14.24)
• Suppliers of bread, dairy, chocolate and beer in Russia have informed retailers of impending price increases of up to 40 percent over the next month, the business daily Kommersant reported Thursday, citing price-increase notices from at least 13 companies. (MT/AFP 08.15.24)
• Sberbank, Russia's largest lender, reported a net profit of RUB816.1 billion ($9.2 billion) for the first six months of this year, up 10.7 percent year on year, the bank reported on Aug. 14. (BNE, 08.15.24)
• Russian politicians and officials are very alarmed by Ukraine’s cross-border incursion, according to Verstka’s sources. A source from the Moscow Mayor’s Office told journalists that panic is growing among his colleagues. He compared the situation to the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. One of the Russian government’s takeaways from the Kursk incursion is the need to “prepare more stress-resistant governors.” (Meduza, 08.15.24)
• The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Aug. 14 that Moscow had withdrawn two weeks earlier from the Council of Europe's Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities. (RFE/RL, 08.15.24)
• The branch of the Investigative Committee in Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the region where Navalny died in prison last February, sent his widow, Yulia Navalnaya, a ruling dated July 26 and signed by inspector Alexander Varapaev informing her that no criminal case would be opened in connection with her husband’s death. She said on Aug. 15 that a three-page document provided by Russian authorities offered no convincing explanation for his death in prison six months ago. (Meduza, 08.15.24, (RFE/RL, 08.16.24)
• Kremlin critic Ilya Yashin who was part of last week’s historic prisoner exchange has said the Ukrainian counter-incursion into Russia is a “terrible” direct result of Vladimir Putin’s war. (FT, 08.11.24)
• Since March 2022, the Russian police have drawn up more than 10,000 reports under the article on "discrediting" the army (Article 20.3.3 of the Code of Administrative Offenses) for anti-war statements and speeches. (Meduza, 08.14.24)
• A Moscow court on Aug. 12 sentenced Usman Baratov, a leader of the Uzbek diaspora in Russia, to four years in prison on a charge of inciting hatred online. Baratov pleaded not guilty to the charge, which stemmed from a post on social media in December related to an abrupt increase of the price of eggs in Russia. (RFE/RL, 08.12.24)
• The Novaya Gazeta Europe newspaper quoted sources on Aug. 13 as saying that Temirlan Eskerkhanov, one of five men imprisoned for their roles in the assassination of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in 2015, is guarding industrial facilities in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Media reports said last week that Eskerkhanov, who was sentenced to 14 years in prison in 2017, had been pardoned in March after he joined a Russian assault brigade fighting in Ukraine. Novaya Gazeta Europe's sources said that Eskerkhanov did not take part in combat operations but "comfortably" guards sites in Mariupol and regularly visits his native Chechnya. (RFE/RL, 08.14.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• A Russian Tu-22M3 bomber has crashed in the Irkutsk region of Siberia, Russian state media reported on Aug. 15, citing the Defense Ministry. One of the four crewmembers died. ((RFE/RL, 08.16.24, Gazeta.ru, 08.16.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• The Russian authorities have launched a classified criminal case against a major general from Russia’s 6th Motorized Rifle Division and his subordinate officers for allegedly imprisoning, torturing, and murdering soldiers in their unit. (Meduza, 08.13.24)
• No significant developments.

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Moscow’s support for Palestinian statehood at the start of talks with Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas in Novo-Ogaryovo near Moscow on Aug. 12. Putin stressed that Russia is closely following developments in Gaza. "We think for establishing a long, reliable, and stable peace in the region, all the UN decisions must be carried out, and first of all, a full-fledged state of Palestine must be established," Putin said at the beginning of the talks. Abbas expressed thanks to Russia for supporting Palestine. (RFE/RL, 08.13.24)
• Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow to discuss “further improving the Serbian-Russian strategic partnership,” the Serbian government said in a statement on Aug. 14. “Vulin repeated that he is proud that Serbia is not part of the anti-Russian hysteria” and that Belgrade has not joined the Western sanctions on Moscow imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the statement said. (RFE/RL, 08.15.24)
  • The European Union has told Serbia that maintaining ties with Russia during its war of aggression against Ukraine is not compatible with EU values and the accession process. (RFE/RL, 08.16.24)
• Germany is investigating possible Russian sabotage at two military bases where attempts were apparently made to contaminate drinking water, according to a senior lawmaker in Berlin. The two facilities allegedly targeted are a Bundeswehr base at Cologne-Wahn and a NATO airfield in nearby Geilenkirchen. Ulrich Fonrobert, a spokesman for the German military, said a hole had been cut in the fence around the Cologne base overnight though the person or people responsible had not been located. (Bloomberg, 08.14.24)
• Bulgarian investigative journalist Christo Grozev has urged Western news organizations to withdraw any correspondents working in Russia, saying the value of having reporters there is outweighed by the risk of having them seized and used by the Kremlin as assets in future prisoner swaps. (RFE/RL, 08.12.24)
• Russia’s trade turnover with BRICS countries increased by 6.3 percent in the first five months of 2024 year-on-year, Russian Industry and Trade Minister Anton Alikhanov said at a meeting of BRICS industry ministers. (TASS, 08.16.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has submitted to parliament a bill on the ratification of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and its amendments, the president's office announced on Aug. 15. (RFE/RL, 08.16.24)
• The head of Ukraine’s Antimonopoly Committee, Pavla Kyrylenko, was informed of being suspected of illegal enrichment of more than 56 million hryvnias. (RBC.ua, 08.14.24)
• Taras Melnychuk, the Ukrainian government's envoy in the Verkhovna Rada, announced on Aug. 12 that the cabinet had removed Deputy Energy Minister Oleksandr Kheylo. The Security Service said earlier that investigators had revealed "a large-scale corruption scheme" organized by an unnamed deputy energy minister, who was accused of accepting a $500,000 bribe for allowing state-owned coal-producing entities to obtain equipment from coal mines in the country's eastern region of Donetsk. (RFE/RL, 08.12.24)
• The SBU detained the heads of two territorial conscriptions commission in the Kyiv region and their accomplice. They are suspected of illegal enrichment for more than 1 million dollars collected from draft-dodgers. (RBC.ua, 08.16.24)
• In Kyiv, a man sold grenade launchers via the Internet and sent them to buyers by mail. The 40-year-old resident if Kyiv is suspected of illegal acquisition, storage and sale of ammunition and explosive devices. (Korrespondent.net, 08.14.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to discuss with his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev the strategic partnership and alliance between their two countries during his visit on Aug. 18–19. (Bloomberg, 08.16.24)
• The Georgian Dream party accused former Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili on Aug. 13 of provoking Russia’s war against Georgia in 2008, and the Kremlin's subsequent illegal occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia at the behest of unspecified "external actors." (ISW, 08.14.24)
• Moldova has suspended the activity of three companies —Airrock Solutions, Aerostage Services, and Maxjet Service—that had brokered airplane-parts sales to Russia. (RFE/RL, 08.13.24)

Quotable and notable:

• No significant developments.

 Footnotes:

1. For Bellona’s review of recent nuclear events in Ukraine visit this link. 

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: The Presidential Office of Ukraine shared under a Creative Commons 4.0 license.