4 Things to Know

1. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin unveiled no deal over the Ukraine conflict during their summit in Alaska on Friday, but both spoke of progress, though vaguely, disclosing no details at their press conference. “We hope the understanding we reached here will help us get closer to the goal of peace in Ukraine,” said Putin—who spoke first—after spending nearly 3 hours of negotiating with his US counterpart, each flanked by two aides. In his turn Trump told journalists that “We had an extremely productive meeting, and many points were agreed to,” but “few” remained to be resolved and that he was going to get on the phone to solicit reactions to the outcomes of his discussions with Putin from the leaders of Ukraine and America’s European NATO allies. “We've made some headway” but “there's no deal until there's a deal,” Trump said, calling his Russian counterpart 'Vladimir.' While acknowledging the need to factor in Ukraine’s security in whatever deal may emerge, Putin—who called Trump “dear neighbor”—also reiterated his position for the need to address root cases of the conflict, accommodating “legitimate concerns of Russia” and reinstating a “balanced security in Europe.”¹
2. In the period of July 15–Aug. 12 Russian forces gained 241 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which marks a 7% increase over the period of July 8–Aug. 5, according to RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. However, if one were to compare shorter periods, then one would notice that in the period of Aug. 5–12 Russia gained 76 square miles of Ukrainian territory (a shade over 3 Martha’s Vineyard islands), which marks a 145% increase over the period of July 29–Aug. 5, 2025. Part of this latest increase can be attributed to Russian advances in the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk sectors in the Donetsk region, which are threatening not only Pokrovsk and Dobropillya, but also the supply lines to the key city of Kramatorsk. The gains, which Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared to have been contained as Aug. 15, have been made as Vladimir Putin has sought to expand leverage ahead of his talks with Donald Trump on that day. At least one of major reason for such setbacks suffered by the Ukrainian army is lack of combat personnel. As David Ignatius wrote in his Washington Post column this week: “The front lines are so depleted that one retired four-star general estimates Ukraine has just a tenth of the people it needs at some key locations.”
3. In July 2025 Russia launched approximately 6,200 one way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against Ukraine, a new monthly high, surpassing the approximately 5,600 launched in June 2025, UK Defense Intelligence reported on August 13 in its X account. “Several daily highs for Russian OWA UAS use were also observed in July 2025, with significant numbers of decoy UAS employed alongside live warhead variants,” according to UK MoD’s Aug. 13 intelligence update. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have continued to launch their own OWA UAS at Russian targets. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Ukrainian air strikes caused an estimated $74 billion in damage to Russia as of August 2024—42% targeting oil refineries, 37% oil storage facilities, and the remainder hitting logistics hubs for petroleum exports, according to RBC.ua. Neither of the claims in this item can be immediately verified.
4. A recent US Department of Defense Inspector General audit has uncovered serious irregularities in the management of $39.3 billion in federal funds used to replenish U.S. defense stockpiles after supplying Ukraine. The Aug. 13, 2025 report found that 32 out of 80 sampled reprogramming actions, worth $5.7 billion, lacked proper documentation, and $519.6 million in excess funds were not timely returned for reallocation. This week has also seen Bloomberg report, citing an USAID inspector general’s report that this agency failed to monitor whether Ukraine misused thousands of Starlink terminals the agency delivered to the country.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The IAEA reported observing smoke and burnt trees near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after a nearby fire, but found no impact on nuclear safety and no radiation increase. The plant remains in cold shutdown, though reliable cooling water supply is an increasing challenge amid ongoing military activity and recent shelling nearby. (IAEA, 08.14.25)
• At Chernobyl, preparations are underway for repairs to the New Safe Confinement damaged by a drone in February, with IAEA supporting restoration efforts (IAEA, 08.14.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Ukrainian intelligence reports that North Korea has deployed about 11,000 troops to Russian training grounds, mainly in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts. The first contingent of 1,200 North Korean soldiers is expected to arrive in Kursk soon. (ISW, 08.12.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledged to strengthen cooperation in a “warm, comradely” phone call. North Korean state media reported Kim’s full support for Russian actions and noted Pyongyang’s role in aiding Russia at the front, while the Kremlin confirmed Putin briefed Kim on the upcoming talks with Trump. (Moscow Times, 08.13.25)
• Russian President Putin praised North Korean troops as “heroic” for their role in fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, specifically highlighting their participation in retaking the Kursk region. In a letter to Kim Jong Un, Putin invoked the countries’ historic military ties and pledged continued cooperation “to defend sovereignty” and promote a multipolar world. North Korean and Russian state media reported expanded cooperation, while Seoul estimates 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia, with hundreds killed fighting for Moscow (Moscow Times, 08.15.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• China and Russia are helping Iran challenge the E3 in the United Nations Security Council over the group's claimed right to enforce the snapback mechanism, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iran's state TV IRIB. (Newsweek, 08.15.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Prior to the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

• President Trump on Aug. 13 suggested that he was powerless to control President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Asked whether he could convince Mr. Putin to stop targeting civilians, Mr. Trump said: “I’ve had a lot of good conversations with him,'' Mr. Trump told a reporter during an appearance at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington—one that was originally about announcing this year's class of Kennedy Center honorees. ''Then I go home and I see that a rocket hit a nursing home, or a rocket hit an apartment building and people are laying dead in the street. So I guess the answer to that is no, because I've had this conversation.'' (New York Times, 08.13.25)
• Despite front-line fighting and failed peace efforts, Russia and Ukraine have managed to exchange more than 10,000 prisoners of war via a secret, pragmatic channel run by military intelligence officers on both sides. The process, started in 2022 after a Ukrainian general used a fallen Russian officer’s phone, now operates regularly—even as other diplomatic contacts have stalled. (Wall Street Journal, 08.14.25)
  • Ukraine and Russia conducted their 67th prisoner exchange, resulting in the return of 84 Ukrainians—33 military personnel and 51 civilians—from Russian captivity. Some had been detained since before the full-scale invasion, including one individual held for over 4,000 days since 2014. Many of the freed Ukrainians require medical care and rehabilitation after years in captivity (Korrespondent.net, 08.14.25)
• At least 70 people have died during detention by FSB officers in Russia and occupied territories since 2022, according to Important Stories. Most were suspected of terrorism or ties to Ukrainian special services. Despite the ongoing war, the number of fatal incidents during detention has not increased compared to prewar years, with many victims unidentified or accused of extremism. (Istories, 08.12.25)
• Authorities in Ukraine’s Donetsk region have announced a mandatory evacuation of families with children from 14 settlements, citing safety concerns. The order affects about 1,150 children and covers communities including Belozerskoye, Blagodat, Bokovoe, Veseloye Pole, Vesna, Mirovoe, Novovodanoye, Svyagoshorovka, Viktorovka, Virovka, Kopani, Novoviktorovka, Novoukrainka, and Stepi, amid increasing hostilities in the area. (Korrespondent.net, 08.13.25)
• Ukraine has ordered more evacuations in the eastern Donetsk region, including Druzhkivka and nearby villages, as Russian forces make rapid advances ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. The order affects nearly 1,900 children. Russian troops recently gained up to 10 kilometers in a single day, their biggest advance in over a year, capturing Iskra and Shcherbynivka. The surge in fighting and civilian displacement comes as top leaders prepare for high-stakes talks on the war’s future. (Moscow Times, 08.15.25)
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres put Israel and Russia “on notice” in his annual Security Council report, warning both may be listed for conflict-related sexual violence after “credible information” of violations by their armed forces. Guterres wrote that he was "gravely concerned about credible information of violations by Russian armed and security forces and affiliated armed groups" primarily against Ukrainian prisoners of war, in 50 official and 22 unofficial detention facilities in Ukraine and Russia. (Reuters, 08.13.25)
• Russian and Ukrainian human rights activists have urged presidents Trump and Putin to discuss prisoner exchange and the fate of Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territories at their summit. (Financial Times, 08.15.25)
• The EU will provide Ukraine with an additional €1.6 billion from profits generated by frozen Russian central bank assets. ("Korrespondent", 08.11.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

Prior to the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

• In the period of July 15–Aug. 12 Russian forces gained 241 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which marks a 7% increase over the 226 square miles these forces gained in the period of July 8–Aug. 5, 2025. However, if one were to compare shorter periods, such as the past week to the preceding week, then one would notice that in the period of Aug. 5–12, 2025 Russia gained 76 square miles of Ukrainian territory (a shade over 3 Martha’s Vineyard islands), which marks a 145% increase over the 31 square miles Russian forces gained in the period of July 29–Aug. 5, 2025, according to the 08.13.25 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card . (RM, 08.13.25)
  • In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 593 square kilometer (229 square miles), according to a 08.14.25 estimate by The Economist. (RM, 08.14.25)
  • As of 08.13.25 Russian forces occupied 114,464 square kilometer (44195 square miles), which constituted more than18.5% of the Ukrainian territory , according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map. (RM, 08.14.25)
• David Ignatius wrote in his Washington Post column on Aug. 13: “The front lines are so depleted that one retired four-star general estimates Ukraine has just a tenth of the people it needs at some key locations.” (Washington Post, 08.13.25)
• Based on the rate of Russia's incremental battlefield advances so far in 2025, it would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100% of the four Ukrainian oblasts' territory, according to UK’s MoD. Based on Russia's average daily casualty rate in 2025 so far, as reported by Ukrainian General Staff, 4.4 more years of war would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties, the British MoD said. (UK MOD X Account, 08.15.25)
• Last year, Ukraine’s surprise offensive seized up to 500 square miles inside Russia’s Kursk region, aiming to trade it for occupied Ukrainian territory. Although Russian and North Korean reinforcements eventually forced Kyiv to retreat, Ukraine still holds a small toehold. The daring operation diverted Russian troops, disrupted Moscow’s plans, and became a symbolic blow for Putin—though at great cost. As President Trump pushes for a truce, Kyiv has virtually no territorial leverage. (Washington Post, 08.11.25)
• In July 2025 Russia launched approximately 6,200 one way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against Ukraine, a new monthly high, surpassing the approximately 5,600 launched in June 2025, UK Defense Intelligence reported on Aug. 13 in its X account. “Several daily highs for Russian OWA UAS use were also observed in July 2025, with significant numbers of decoy UAS employed alongside live warhead variants,” according to UK MoD’s Aug. 13 intelligence update. (RM, 08.15.25)
• “Several daily highs for Russian OWA UAS use were also observed in July 2025, with significant numbers of decoy UAS employed alongside live warhead variants,” according to UK MoD’s Aug. 13 intelligence update. Russia is ramping up distant drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian cities and front-line positions, while adopting new battlefield tactics involving small units and offensive drone integration. The approach aims to grind down Ukrainian defenses, particularly around Pokrovsk, despite incremental territorial gains and heavy losses. (New York Times,08.09.25)
• Russia has been on the offensive for more than two years, and in that time conquered less than 1% of Ukrainian territory, much of it in the Donetsk region, while losing hundreds of thousands of troops in pitched fighting dominated by brutal drone warfare. (Wall Street Journal, 08.09.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Russian forces “would have been in Kyiv in four hours if they went down the highway” during the spring 2022 invasion, attributing their failure to a Russian general’s decision to move through farmland instead. Trump made the remark at a White House press conference, reflecting on the initial phase of Russia’s assault on Ukraine. (Interfax-Ukraine, 08.11.25)
• In the first year of Russia's all-out invasion, Ukraine's defenders repeatedly outmaneuvered a lumbering Russian army, relying on improvisation and the judgment of men in the field. Three years on, Ukraine's military has slipped back into a more rigid, top-down mode of fighting with roots in the Soviet era, creating mounting frustration about unnecessary casualties while hurting civilian morale and army recruitment. (Wall Street Journal, 08.12.25)
• According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Ukrainian air strikes caused an estimated $74 billion in damage to Russia as of Aug. 2024—42% targeting oil refineries, 37% oil storage facilities, and the remainder hitting logistics hubs for petroleum exports. Most strikes hit targets 500–1,000 kilometer away (39%), with another 39% within 500 kilometers and 10% beyond 1,000 kilometers. The types of weapons used were not specified. (RBC.ua, 08.15.25)
• At least a dozen foreign recruits serving in Ukraine’s military were killed when a Russian missile struck a training camp’s mess hall near Kropyvnytskyi in late July. The attack, one of the deadliest against foreign volunteers, hit during lunchtime and also wounded over 100. (New York Times, 08.12.25)

Friday, Aug. 8, 2025

• On Friday, Aug. 8, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Novokhatske and Tolstoy, and advanced near Verkhnekamianske, Novospaske, Nikanorivka, Voskresenka, Zelenyi Hai and Toretsk. (RM, 08.14.25)

Saturday, Aug. 9, 2025

• On Saturday, Aug. 9, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Serebryanske forestry and near Nykanorivka. (RM, 08.14.25)
• Russia continued deadly strikes across Ukraine, killing at least three and wounding dozens as attacks hit Bucha and other towns. (New York Times, 08.09.25)

Sunday, Aug. 10, 2025

• On Sunday, Aug. 10, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Bilytske, Novomarkove, Diliyivka and Oleksandro-Kalynove. (RM, 08.14.25)
• Ukraine’s military announced the recapture of Bezsalivka village in the northern Sumy region, claiming to have “liberated and completely cleared” the area of Russian troops and eliminated 18 enemy soldiers. (Moscow Times/AFP, 08.10.25)
• A new wave of Russian artillery and drone attacks killed at least five people in Ukraine on Sunday, Ukrainian officials said. Three deaths were reported in Zaporizhzhia from shelling, with two more civilians killed in Donetsk. (Moscow Times/AFP, 08.10.25)
• Three civilians died on the Odesa coast after triggering a mine while swimming in a restricted area. (Moscow Times/AFP, 08.10.25)
• Over the past week, Ukraine claimed strikes on major refineries in Ryazan and Samara, following up with today’s attack on the 140,000-barrel-per-day Saratov refinery. Russian authorities reported intercepting 121 drones in a single night, highlighting the scale of new cross-border strikes. (Bloomberg, 08.10.25)
  • Ukraine’s military claimed a successful drone strike against an oil refinery in Russia’s Saratov region, some 1,000 kilometers from the front. Regional authorities confirmed an industrial facility was damaged and one person killed. Later on Sunday, another drone reached a refinery owned by Lukoil PJSC in the Komi region, about 960 miles (1,547 kilometer) northeast of Moscow. (Bloomberg, 08.10.25, Moscow Times/AFP, 08.10.25)
  • A woman was killed in Russia’s Belgorod region, near the Ukrainian border, as Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory continue to rise. (Moscow Times/AFP, 08.10.25)
• An intelligence focused open source that tracks Russian vehicle losses in Ukraine reported on Aug. 10 that the rate of Russian tank losses continues to decline and reached its lowest levels of the war in June and July 2025. The source stated that it has visually confirmed 22 Russian tank losses in June 2025 and 19 Russian tank losses in July 2025, down from 116 confirmed tank losses in June 2024 and 97 confirmed tank losses in July 2024. (ISW, 08.10.25)
• Russia is committing about 110,000 troops to the assault on Pokrovsk. (New York Times, 08.10.25).

Monday, Aug. 11, 2025

• Russian sabotage and assault groups have made advances near Dobropillya and Pokrovsk, reportedly seizing villages such as Razine, Sukhetske, Fedorivka, Zatyshok, Boikivka, Novotoretske, and Zapovidne, with ongoing fighting in Kucheriv Yar and Zolotyi Kolodyaz. (ISW, 08.11.25).

• On Monday, Aug. 11, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Kucheriv Yar, Zolotyi Kolodyazh and Mayske. (RM, 08.14.25)
• Ukrainian SBU drones struck Russia’s Arzamas Instrument-Making Plant, which produces key components for Kh-32 and Kh-101 missiles, in the Nizhny Novgorod region. At least four hits were reported. (RBC.ua, 08.11.25)

Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025

• Russian forces have breached Ukrainian defenses north of Pokrovsk, seizing at least nine settlements and threatening a possible encirclement of the city, military analysts report. Analysts say Russian forces have seized at least nine settlements near the city of Dobropillya, about 22 kilometers (13.6 miles) north of Pokrovsk, and are advancing from the north, east and south using small infantry units and drone surveillance to stretch outmanned Ukrainian defenses. “The situation is quite chaotic. Having found gaps in the defenses, the enemy is infiltrating deep, trying to quickly entrench and amass forces for further advances,” the Ukrainian open-source intelligence group Deep State wrote in a post on Telegram. Russian sources claim seizures of Nove Shakhove, Rubizhne, Ivanivka, Dorozhie, and advances near Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Shakhove, Toretske, and Bilytske. (ISW, 08.12.25, (RFE/RL, 08.12.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.12.25, Moscow Times, 08.12.25)
  • The advance could split Ukrainian lines in Donetsk and trap troops around Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s main fortress in the area. Experts warn the pace of Russian gains—over 144 sq kilometer this week—underscores Ukraine’s growing defensive challenges. (Meduza, 08.13.25)
  • The breach exposes Ukraine’s ongoing manpower and mobilization challenges as the war’s diplomatic stakes intensify. (Washington Post, 08.15.25)
  • The sudden Russian breakthrough in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region has alarmed Kyiv, with Russian forces advancing up to 15km near Dobropillya and threatening key supply lines to Kramatorsk. (Financial Times, 08.12.25)
• On Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces cleared the outskirts of Stepnohirsk. As for the Russian armed forces they advanced in Nikanorivka, Shcherbynivka and near Petrivka. (RM, 08.14.25)
• Russia’s FSB says it has arrested a dual Ukrainian-Russian citizen accused of plotting to assassinate a senior Russian Defense Ministry official with a car bomb. (Moscow Times, 08.12.25).

Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025

• On Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Malynivka, Poltavka, Sichneve and Mayske. (RM, 08.14.25)
• Russia’s military claimed on Aug. 13 it had captured the villages of Suvorovo and Nikanorivka near Dobropillya—about 15 kilometer from the town—as part of its largest 24-hour advance in over a year in eastern Ukraine, while Dobropillya, once home to 28,000, faces constant Russian attacks and recent evacuations of families with children. (Moscow Times, 08.13.25)
• Russia set a new monthly record in July 2025 by launching approximately 6,200 drones—including many “Shahed” models—at Ukraine, according to UK defense intelligence. Several daily records were also hit, with Russia using decoy drones as part of its evolving strike tactics. On July 9, Russian forces launched a record 728 drones and 13 missiles overnight, with most drones neutralized by Ukrainian defenses. (Korrespondent.net, 08.13.25)
• Zelenskyy warned of sharp Russian advances near Dobropillya, with Russian troops penetrating up to 10 kilometers in some spots and threatening towns like Kostiantynivka. (Moscow Times, 08.13.25)
• Zelenskyy has asked his government to consider allowing men under 22 to travel abroad, potentially relaxing a wartime ban that has barred most men aged 18–60 from leaving since 2022. The proposal would let men aged 18–21 cross Ukraine’s borders. (Meduza, 08.13.25)
• Ukraine claims to have struck a major Russian oil-pumping station in Unecha, Bryansk region, which serves key export pipelines to Hungary, Slovakia, and Germany. (Bloomberg, 08.13.25)

Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025

• On Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Oleksiyivka, Zelene Pole and Ternivka. (RM, 08.14.25)
• At least 16 people were injured in a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on southern Russian cities, according to local authorities. Thirteen people were hospitalized in Rostov-on-Don after drones damaged apartment buildings, while three more were injured in Belgorod when a drone hit a car. Another strike sparked a fire at a Volgograd oil refinery. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 44 Ukrainian drones overnight, including several over Crimea. (Moscow Times, 08.14.25)
• President Trump said that Russia’s drone attacks on Ukraine Thursday were part of President Putin’s negotiation strategy ahead of the Alaska summit, telling reporters on Air Force One, “He’s trying to set a stage… in his mind, that helps him make a better deal. It actually hurts him.” (Wall Street Journal, 08.15.25)
• Russia’s FSB and Defense Ministry claimed Aug. 14 to have destroyed Ukrainian Sapsan/Hrim-2 missile production and launch facilities in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions during joint operations. (Moscow Times, 08.14.25).
• Russia appears to be preparing new offensives on the front, including sending thousands of troops to Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka, and continues to use drone strikes to hinder Ukrainian evacuations and disrupt defensive operations, especially near Pokrovsk and Dobropillya. (ISW, 08.14.25)
• The commander of Ukraine’s 47th “Magura” brigade, Alexander Shirshin, has stepped down after publicly criticizing military leadership for ordering “moronic tasks” that resulted in unnecessary losses during operations in Russia’s Kursk region. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.14.25)

Friday, Aug. 15, 2025

• In the past 24 hours Russian forces have advanced in two sectors of western Donetsk Oblast, near the villages of Aleksiyevka, Novoukrainka, Zelenoe Pole, and Temirovka, moving toward the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to DeepState. Despite the progress, there has been no confirmed capture of settlements. The contested “gray zone” near Zolotoy Kolodets has also shrunk, reflecting ongoing heavy fighting in Ukraine’s east and south. (Deep State,Korrespondent.net, 08.15.25)
  • Ukrainian forces have contained a Russian push on the eastern frontline, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday, days after a 10km advance near Dobropillya sparked fear of a breakthrough. (Financial Times, 08.15.25)
  • The timing of Russia's gains has heightened fears that Ukraine’s position could be weakened both on the battlefield and at the bargaining table. (Washington Post, 08.15.25)
• A Ukrainian drone strike on an apartment block in Kursk killed one person and wounded 12 more, according to local officials. The attack caused major damage to a nine-story building and affected 11 buildings and 50 vehicles. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have intercepted drones over nine regions, while Ukrainian drones also reportedly hit a Rosneft oil refinery in Syzran, deep inside Russia. Drone strikes led to temporary flight stops at several regional airports. (Moscow Times, 08.15.25)
• A Russian vessel, Port Olya 4, was seriously damaged by a Ukrainian drone strike in the port of Olya in Russia’s Astrakhan region on the Caspian Sea. Photos show the ship in a semi-submerged state. The vessel was reportedly loaded in Iran with spare parts for Shahed drones and ammunition. Russian officials confirmed a drone attack targeting regional logistics infrastructure but said there were no casualties and no damage to the port itself. (Korrespondent.net, 08.15.25)

Military aid to Ukraine 

Prior to the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

• Europe has now surpassed the U.S. as the leading provider of military aid to Ukraine via direct defense industry contracts, according to the Kiel Institute’s latest Ukraine Support Tracker. In May–June 2025, more than €4.6 billion of the €10.5 billion in European aid was procured through new contracts, while recent U.S. arms to Ukraine were only via sales, not aid. Support increasingly relies on the G7’s ERA loan mechanism. (Kiel Institute, 08.12.25)
• The United States and Ukraine's European allies agree that Europe, not the United States, will fund further military and security assistance to Ukraine. U.S. Vice President JD Vance reiterated the Trump Administration's consistent position that the United States will no longer directly fund the Ukrainian military effort, but that Europe can continue to buy weapons from U.S. manufacturers for Ukraine and Europe's own defensive needs. (ISW, 08.10.25)
• A recent U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General audit (Report No. DODIG-2025-137, Aug. 13, 2025) has uncovered serious irregularities in the management of $39.3 billion in federal funds used to replenish U.S. defense stockpiles after supplying Ukraine. The report found that 32 out of 80 sampled reprogramming actions, worth $5.7 billion, lacked proper documentation, and $519.6 million in excess funds were not timely returned for reallocation. Additionally, the DoD overstated its obligations to Congress and missed opportunities to reuse $920 million, raising concerns over ineffective controls and transparency in the handling of Ukraine-related replenishment funding. (media.defense.gov, 08.13.25)
• The U.S. Agency for International Development failed to monitor whether Ukraine misused thousands of Starlink terminals the agency delivered to the country after Russia’s invasion in 2022, according to an inspector general’s report obtained by Bloomberg News. A draft transfer agreement prohibited “military use” of the terminals, the report notes. (Bloomberg, 08.15.25)
• Zelenskyy announced that the PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) initiative—created with NATO partners—has already raised $1.5 billion for weapons procurement, with $500 million each from the Netherlands, a joint Danish-Norwegian-Swedish fund, and Germany. The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway have already contributed $1 billion via PURL. (RBC.ua, 08.14.25, ISW, 08.14.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Prior to the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

• Just days before meeting Putin, President Trump warned Russia of “very severe consequences” if it doesn’t end the war in Ukraine, following calls from Zelenskyy and European leaders to defend European and Ukrainian security interests. “There will be severe consequences,” Trump said when asked during a press conference at the Kennedy Center what would happen if Putin did not agree at the Alaska summit to end the conflict. Asked whether the consequences would include tariffs or sanctions, the president said: “I don’t have to say.” (Financial Times, 08.13.25. RFE/RL, 08.13.25)
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Russia could face further sanctions or higher tariffs if Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska fails to deliver progress. He also called on European leaders to strengthen sanctions and trade restrictions on Russia, citing the recent U.S. secondary tariff on India for its Russian oil purchases as a possible model for further action. (Financial Times, 08.13.25)
• Trump’s new 50% tariffs on Indian exports—partly targeting Russian oil trade—have rattled investors, sending Indian stocks lower and widening their gap with China’s market. Wall Street now favors Chinese equities, with Goldman Sachs overweight and India only “marketweight.” Analysts say U.S.-India tensions undermine New Delhi’s manufacturing ambitions and may accelerate foreign investment outflows. (Bloomberg, 08.08.25)
• David Ignatius wrote in his Washington Post column on Aug. 13: “Officials tell me Trump is ready to impose the sanctions he has threatened for months. ‘It will be a humiliation for him’ if Putin balks, argued the knowledgeable official. The Senate has already drafted a tough sanctions bill with strong bipartisan support. Trump will need to follow through and punish Moscow, something he has been reluctant to do.” (Washington Post, 08.13.25)
• EU foreign ministers will discuss the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, including measures targeting Moscow’s shadow fleet, at an informal “Gymnich” meeting in Copenhagen on Aug. 29–30. The new package, being drafted by the European Commission and the European External Action Service, could be adopted in September 2025. The EU has ruled out lifting existing restrictions and aims to further increase pressure on Russia. (Korrespondent.net, 08.15.25)
• Europe is looking at frozen Russian sovereign assets as a point of leverage, with Brussels floating the idea of using the assets to fund Ukraine, two EU officials said. One proposal would involve borrowing the cash accumulated at the Belgian clearing house Euroclear from the €190 billion Russian assets, and lending it to Ukraine, they said. (Financial Times, 08.10.25)
• Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Everyone sees that there has been no real step from Russia towards peace, no action on the ground or in the air that could save lives.” He added: “That is why sanctions are needed, pressure is needed. Strength is needed—of the United States, of Europe… If Russia does not want to stop the war, then its economy must be stopped.” (Financial Times, 08.10.25)
• An investigation by Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) found that billionaire Gennady Timchenko, a close Putin ally, secretly took control of Russian brewer Baltika after Carlsberg’s exit. The takeover was financed by a state bank loan funneled through companies linked to Timchenko, whom FBK alleges routinely covers expenses for Putin’s family. The same firm, Ena Invest, had also acquired Shell’s Russian assets in 2023. FBK suggests the transactions benefit Putin’s inner circle on the back of foreign company departures. (Moscow Times, 08.15.25)
• Earlier in the week, a Russian court removed a freeze on Raiffeisen’s efforts to sell its local subsidiary, removing one of the main obstacles for its potential sale. Putin would still have to approve any transaction. (Financial Times, 08.08.25)
• The Russian Justice Ministry has banned the media freedom organization Reporters Without Borders as an “undesirable” organization, making its activities illegal in Russia and subject to criminal prosecution. (Meduza, 08.15.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Prior to the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

Friday, Aug. 8, 2025

• President Trump announces he will meet Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Aug 15 to push a ceasefire; says any deal could involve “some swapping of territories.” Asked whether Putin must meet Zelenskyy as part of talks, Trump says “No, he doesn’t,” drawing criticism that Kyiv is being sidelined. (RFE/RL, 08.09.25, ABC, RM, 08.08.25)
• Putin is reported to be insisting Ukraine cede all remaining areas in Donetsk and Luhansk, including strategic Ukrainian-held cities, in exchange for a ceasefire that would freeze current lines elsewhere. The proposal, reportedly floated through backchannel talks, offers Ukraine no guarantees of Russian withdrawal from other occupied regions or the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, 08.08.25; ISW, 08.08.25)

Saturday, Aug. 9, 2025

• Zelenskyy is reported to be seeking European support to block any U.S.-Russia peace deal that would force Kyiv to cede land to Russia after Donald Trump suggested “some swapping” of territory in upcoming Alaska talks with Putin. Zelenskyy, alarmed by Trump’s move and lack of Ukrainian representation, is coordinating with European leaders to present a united front. Kyiv insists no leader or parliament can legally hand over Ukrainian land. (Financial Times, 08.09.25, Bloomberg, 08.09.25)
  • An European counterproposal presented to U.S. officials on Aug. 9 rejected a Russian proposal to trade Ukrainian-held parts of the Donetsk region for a cease-fire.² European leaders reaffirmed that Ukraine’s borders “must not be changed by force,” rejecting Donald Trump’s suggestion of a land swap with Russia as part of a peace deal European powers and Ukraine countered Putin’s ceasefire proposal, rejecting a Russian demand for Ukraine to cede all of Donetsk region. In a meeting with U.S. officials, Europe presented a plan calling for a genuine cease-fire and reciprocal withdrawals—plus binding guarantees for Ukraine’s security, including potential NATO membership. Kyiv and Brussels are determined any deal must include Ukrainian input and not unilaterally concede territory. Crucially, the European plan, which was presented to Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg and Witkoff, stipulates that any territorial concession by Kyiv must be safeguarded by ironclad security guarantees—including potential NATO membership for Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 08.09.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.10.25, Washington Post, 08.09.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.09.25, Financial Times, 08.09.25)³
    • David Ignatius wrote in his Washington Post column on Aug. 13 “The crucial issue for Ukraine and other European countries is the security guarantees that would follow a peace deal. Europe will provide the necessary weapons and training for Ukraine’s army. But several European officials tell me they expect the United States will have some ‘skin in the game,’ including satellite surveillance to monitor any Russian cheating.” (Washington Post, 08.13.25)
• Putin reportedly told U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff that Russia would agree to a cease-fire if Ukraine surrendered its eastern Donetsk region and accepted a freeze of the current battle lines, possibly leading to land swaps and recognition of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territory. (Wall Street Journal, 08.09.25)⁴

Sunday, Aug. 10, 2025.

• According to officials briefed on the proposal brought by Witkoff from Moscow, Putin has said he would agree to a cease-fire in exchange for Ukraine handing over roughly one-third of the eastern Donetsk region that Kyiv still controls. The front line would be frozen elsewhere, including in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions that Russia also claims as its own. Several European officials briefed on the Aug. 13 meeting with Witkoff noted that Putin didn’t repeat his original, more hard-line position: that Ukraine must be demilitarized and its government replaced, and that all of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, regions whose capitals are controlled by Ukraine, should be ceded to Russia. Some of the European officials said that if Ukraine were to hand over the entire Donetsk region, Russia would have to withdraw from the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south. (Wall Street Journal, 08.10.25)
  • Kremlin insiders say Russia is only considering a temporary ceasefire in exchange for Ukrainian land, but is unwilling to return territory in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia. European and Ukrainian leaders insist any deal must start with a genuine ceasefire and reject ceding land by force (Washington Post, 08.10.25).
• Vance on Sunday described the planned Trump-Putin meeting as a “major breakthrough for American diplomacy”, saying the push was to find a negotiated settlement on territory “where the killing stops”. “Both the Russians and the Ukrainians probably, at the end of the day, are going to be unhappy with it,” he told Fox News. The U.S. vice-president also warned Europe that the U.S. would no longer be funding Ukraine as it had. “If you care so much about this conflict, you should be willing to play a more direct and more substantial way in funding this war yourself,” he said. (Financial Times, 08.10.25)
• Mr. Vance said on Fox News on Sunday that the United States was trying to schedule a trilateral meeting between Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy, but that doing so was difficult. Mr. Vance said that “one of the most important logjams is that Vladimir Putin said that he would never sit down with Zelenskyy.” The Ukrainian leader has repeatedly called for direct talks with Mr. Putin in any format, but Russia has refused. Mr. Zelenskyy said on Sunday that while he valued “the determination with which President Trump is committed to bringing an end to the killings in this war,” the root cause of the bloody conflict was “Putin’s desire to wage war and manipulate everyone he comes into contact with,” he said. (New York Times, 08.11.25)
• Zelenskyy firmly rejected Trump’s proposal for “swapping of territories” with Russia, insisting Ukraine will not cede land under any circumstances Zelenskyy insists Ukrainians “will not give their land to the occupier” and warns any deal without Ukraine is a “dead solution.” (New York Times, 08.10.25, Washington Post, 08.10.25)
• EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas insisted that any U.S.-Russia arrangement to end the Ukraine war “must have Ukraine and the EU included, for it is a matter of Ukraine’s and the whole of Europe’s security.” (RFE/RL, 08.10.25)
• In a joint statement, leaders from France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Poland, Finland, and the European Commission stressed that only diplomacy combined with pressure on Russia and continued support to Ukraine can ensure peace. (RFE/RL, 08.10.25)
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the upcoming Trump-Putin summit may open negotiations over Ukrainian territory, though he insisted any outcome should acknowledge Russia’s control de facto—not legally—over some areas. (Bloomberg, 08.10.25)

Monday, Aug. 11, 2025

• Trump said the U.S. aims to facilitate a “deal for both Russia and Ukraine,” not just a U.S.-Russia agreement, at the upcoming Alaska summit. Trump pledged Ukraine and EU inclusion in talks and expressed intent to help reclaim “prime” occupied territories, likely Zaporizhia and Kherson, crucial for Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and exports. Trump stated that Putin agreed to a summit due to fear of looming U.S. sanctions. (ISW, 08.11.25, ISW, 08.11.25)
• Ukraine and its European allies sought on Sunday to present a united front ahead of a meeting this week between Trump and Putin that risks sidelining Kyiv in future peace talks. 'The path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine,'' read a statement released early Sunday by seven European leaders, including President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany. (New York Times, 08.11.25)
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy told European leaders that they must reject any settlement proposed by Donald Trump in which Ukraine gives up further territory—but that Russia could be allowed to retain some of the land it has taken. This would mean freezing the front line where it is and handing Russia de facto control of the territory it occupies in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea. (Telegraph, 08.11.25)
  • Kaja Kallas, the European Union's foreign policy chief, said she would convene an emergency meeting of the bloc's foreign ministers on Monday to discuss next steps. (New York Times, 08.11.25)
• India is committed to strengthening ties with Ukraine, while calling for a peaceful resolution to its war with Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X on Monday after a conversation with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. (Bloomberg, 08.12.25)
• The Russian stock market surged 8.3%, its biggest rally since February, after news broke of the upcoming Putin-Trump summit in Alaska. Investors hope the meeting will lead to progress on ending the Ukraine war and potential easing of sanctions. Analysts warn market optimism may be short-lived if the talks disappoint or face public criticism from the EU or Ukraine. (Moscow Times/AFP, 08.11.25)

Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025

• President Zelenskiy reiterated Ukraine will not withdraw troops from Donbas or cede territory to Russia, rejecting demands for Kyiv to give up Donetsk and Luhansk as a precondition for a ceasefire. He warned that any settlement must include security guarantees and Ukraine’s participation in talks as the U.S. and Russian leaders prepare to meet this week. (Bloomberg, 08.12.25)
• As Trump prepares to meet Putin in Alaska, analysts warn the hastily-organized summit could benefit the Russian leader. Trump has a history of disregarding advisors and holding secretive talks with Putin, raising concerns among allies that he may make major concessions on Ukraine. Despite Trump’s goal of ending the war, experts and former officials say a genuine breakthrough is unlikely, as Putin continues to prioritize his battlefield gains and typically seeks more substantive U.S. commitments than talk alone. (New York Times, 08.12.25)

Thursday, Aug. 13, 2025

• Trump told European leaders the U.S. was willing to participate in security guarantees for Ukraine as long as they were outside the NATO military alliance. Trump was, for the first time, supportive of U.S. assistance provided it was on a “non-NATO” basis, according to people familiar with Aug. 13’s call between him and his European counterparts. Trump said three times that the U.S. would participate in providing them, the people said. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggested the guarantees could take the form of an “Article 5-like” commitment, which requires members of the alliance to come to each other’s support in case of aggression, without entailing NATO membership. (Financial Times, 08.13.25)
  • In a call with European leaders and Zelenskyy Trump agreed with them on key "red lines" for the Alaska summit with Putin: a ceasefire as a prerequisite for talks, territorial discussions starting from current front lines, binding Western security guarantees, Ukraine’s participation in any deal, and no legal recognition of Russian-occupied regions. Trump warned Putin of “very severe consequences” if Russia refuses a ceasefire. Trump, who described the call with his allies as “very good,” said that if his Alaska meeting with Putin “goes OK”, he would want a trilateral gathering—involving Zelenskyy—to take place shortly after.⁵ He said that this second meeting would be “more important” and that, “maybe” Europeans will be involved in it. EU leaders said Trump was focused on obtaining a ceasefire in Ukraine at his summit with Vladimir Putin and ready to raise the pressure on the Russian leader if he refused to comply. (Axios, 08.15.25, (Financial Times, 08.13.25, Sky News, 08.14.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.14.25)
  • Trump said there’s only a 25% chance of success if a second meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin follows the Alaska summit. (ISW, 08.14.25)
  • Trump said on Aug. 13 that he wants a follow-up summit with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately afterwards, ideally while they're still in Alaska. He told Fox News radio that his goal was "getting peace fast," and he expects this meeting to produce results, though perhaps not an immediate ceasefire. (Axios, 08.15.25, (Financial Times, 08.13.25, Sky News, 08.14.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.14.25)
  • Trump downplayed expectations for a peace deal, though he floated “land swaps” as a path forward—an idea both Kyiv and Moscow publicly reject. Zelenskyy warned giving up territory would invite further Russian aggression, while Russia continues territorial pushes in eastern Ukraine White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the meeting is a “listening exercise” and that Ukraine must be part of any peace deal. (Financial Times, 08.13.25,CNN, 08.13.25)
  • After a day of intense diplomacy on Aug. 13, European leaders said their talks with Trump and Ukraine’s Zelenskyy had been positive. French President Emmanuel Macron said Trump had been “very clear on the fact that the American intention was to obtain a ceasefire” and territorial questions “will not be negotiated without the Ukrainian president”. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Trump had “broadly” agreed with the Europeans to apply more pressure on Russia through sanctions if no progress was made. (Financial Times, 08.13.25, (Financial Times, 08.13.25, Sky News, 08.14.25)
• U.S. officials argue that if Trump's rhetoric sounds pro-Russian at times, it's because he believes that kind of public messaging will help him get a deal. One told Axios that Trump is still "pissed off" at Putin. "The general view for months is that we can bring down the Russian economy tomorrow. There are more ways to ruin Ukraine. But if he had to choose a side, he would start to bring down the Russian economy. He's really had enough." (Axios, 08.13.25)
• After meeting European leaders and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, President Zelenskyy outlined Ukraine’s red lines ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska: no peace talks without a ceasefire, Ukraine’s participation in negotiations, territorial decisions starting from current front lines, robust security guarantees, and stronger sanctions if talks fail. Kyiv is also demanding compensation for war damages, including the return of 20,000 abducted children, and warns that territorial swaps cannot precede a truce or constitutional approval. Zelenskyy cautioned that ceding the Donbas would invite renewed Russian offensives and, along with European leaders, urged continued U.S. and EU sanctions to prevent Russia from regrouping or legitimizing its occupation. Trump reportedly agreed to these principles, with a second summit possibly involving Zelenskyy and Putin, but Zelenskyy called the Alaska meeting a “personal victory” for Putin, arguing it ends Russia’s international isolation and delays promised new U.S. sanctions. (ABC News, 08.14.25, Moscow Times, 08.13.25, Politico, 08.12.25)
• Russia’s foreign ministry has ruled out any territorial concessions ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, insisting Ukraine must withdraw from all four contested regions. (Financial Times, 08.13.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of planning a “false flag” attack to disrupt the upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, alleging—without evidence—that Ukraine would strike civilian targets and blame Moscow to derail peace talks. (Meduza, 08.13.25)
• Ahead of the Trump-Putin summit, Zelenskyy again ruled out exchanging land for peace, saying any Russian proposal for a ceasefire would demand Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk—terms he rejects without security guarantees and direct talks. (Wall Street Journal, 08.13.25)
• Friday’s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska has sent ripples through markets, but analysts say a Ukraine peace deal may have little broad economic impact. Sectors like energy shipping and defense have benefitted from the war: LNG exporter Cheniere, tanker companies, and European defense firms have outperformed, but could lose some gains if peace returns. With global military spending rising and fossil fuel flows shifting, any “peace dividend” may be muted and confined to select industries. (Wall Street Journal, 08.13.25)
• David Ignatius wrote in his Washington Post column on Aug. 13: “Trump will tell Putin what the deal is and what he has to do: land for peace. On land, how much and what terms? On peace, how durable and how protected?” (Washington Post, 08.13.25)

Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025

• On Aug. 14 When asked if he would consider reducing the American military presence in Europe if it proves necessary to secure peace in Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump did not rule it out. At a White House press conference on Thursday, Trump was asked whether he would support cutting NATO troop levels “in countries like Poland” as part of a deal to persuade Russia to sign a peace agreement. “That hasn’t been put before me. I’ll think about that for later,” Trump said. (Meduza, 08.15.25)
• On Aug. 14 Donald Trump said that he would “know within the first two minutes, three minutes, four minutes or five minutes” whether the meeting was going to be a success—long before the two leaders would have any opportunity to hash out the tricky details that will be necessary to strike a deal that can satisfy the two warring sides. (WSJWashington Post, 08.15.25, The Hill, 08.15.25)
• Zelenskyy met UK Prime Minister Starmer in London, emphasizing that Ukraine will “maintain its strength” while pressing for strong security guarantees as part of any peace talks. Ukraine is open to discussing a partial ceasefire with Russia focusing on halting aerial attacks, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview with Corriere della Sera. Podolyak called an “aerial truce” a possible starting point for broader peace talks, though he noted Russia is unlikely to stop using aviation and drones. The statement comes as Trump and Putin prepare to meet in Alaska for talks on ending Russia’s full-scale invasion. (Meduza, 08.13.25, RFE/RL, 08.14.25)
• The UK government stated that Ukraine must have “robust and credible security guarantees” to defend its territorial integrity in any peace deal with Russia. The Downing Street announcement followed a call between Prime Minister Keir Starmer, President Trump, and European leaders, affirming unwavering support for Ukraine and insisting that international borders cannot be changed by force. (Financial Times, 08.14.25)
• Trump's stance on Ukraine has appeared contradictory at times. Earlier this week, he said he might "leave and say 'good luck,' and that'll be the end" of negotiations, but on Aug. 13 he also threatened "very severe consequences" if Putin didn't agree to end the war after this week's summit. (Washington Post, 08.14.25)

Friday, Aug. 15, 2025

• "If it's a bad meeting, it'll end very quickly, and if it's a good meeting, we're going to end up getting peace in the pretty near future," US President Donald Trump before leaving for Alaska to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Trump told Fox that he will "walk" if his meeting with Putin in Alaska does not go well. (NDTV, 08.15.25, Fox News, 08.15.25)

• Speaking with reporters on Air Force One en route to Alaska on Aug. 15, Trump made two comments that could reassure Ukraine and its European allies. For the first time publicly, he said he was open to the “possibility” of security guarantees for Ukraine, “along with other Europe and other countries.” He cautioned that such protections could not come through NATO. And he said that while potential swaps of territory would be discussed, "I’ve got to let Ukraine make that decision.” "I’m not here to negotiate for Ukraine. I’m here to get him at a table,” he said. (Washington Post, 08.15.25)

• On the eve of the Alaska summit, President Trump acknowledged the meeting with Putin could fail but promised Ukraine would have a say in any peace deal. Trump said no agreement will be finalized without a follow-up meeting, ideally with Zelenskyy present, to decide on contentious issues. He insisted he would not “divvy up” Ukraine without Kyiv’s input, while Secretary of State Rubio stressed the need for security guarantees for Ukraine. Zelenskyy continues to reject any territorial concessions as Russia advances on the battlefield. (Moscow Times, 08.15.25)
• Russia will deliver a “clear” and “well defined” message to the U.S. at the Alaska summit, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov—who wore a СССР (USSR) jacket—said after arriving in Anchorage for talks between Putin and Trump. Lavrov emphasized that Russia’s position on Ukraine is set and will be firmly presented, while Putin called Trump’s mediation efforts “energetic and sincere.” The Kremlin says Ukraine is the focus, with arms control also up for discussion, but Zelenskyy was not invited to the summit. (Moscow Times, 08.15.25)
• "It's time to end the war, and the necessary steps must be taken by Russia. We are counting on America," Zelenskyy wrote on the Telegram messaging app on Friday, adding that the Trump-Putin meeting should open the way for a "just peace" and three-way talks with him included. (Reuters, 08.15.25)
• Russia expects the summit will end with a “result,” Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (Financial Times, 08.15.25)

After the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

• President Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia concluded their summit in Alaska on Friday without declaring agreement on any issue, much less the one Mr. Trump said was at the top of his agenda, ending the war in Ukraine. We hope the understanding we reached here will help us get closer to the goal of peace in Ukraine,” said Putin – who spoke first – after spending more than 2 hours of negotiating with his US counterpart, each flanked by two aides. In his turn  Trump told journalists that “We had an extremely productive meeting, and many points were agreed to,” but “few” remained to be resolved and that he was going to get on the phone to solicit reactions to the outcomes of his disucssions with Putin from the leaders of Ukraine and America’s European NATO allies. “We've made some headway” but  “there's no deal until there's a deal,” Trump said, calling his Rusdsian counterpart Vladimir While acknowledging the need to factor in Ukraine’s security in whatever deal may emerge, Putin – who called Trump “dear neighbor” also reiterated his position for the need to address root cases of the conflict, accommodating “legitimate concerns of Russia” and reinstating a  “balanced security in Europe.”  (NYTimes, RM,08.15.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Finland has charged the captain and crew of the Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker Eagle S with aggravated vandalism and interference with telecommunications after the vessel dragged its anchor for nearly 100 kilometers, severing five electricity and telecom cables in the Baltic Sea. This is the first criminal case in a NATO country against shadow fleet officers over sabotage amid ongoing concerns about Russian-linked attacks on regional infrastructure. (Financial Times, 08.11.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• Russia’s Iskander-M aeroballistic missile employs an evasive algorithm that randomly selects trajectory shifts during its terminal phase, making its flight path unpredictable and difficult to intercept, Seth Hosford reports. Even if radar picks up the missile, it then performs erratic maneuvers, guided by onboard computers and sensors, repeatedly shifting its path through randomly chosen grid squares. This ‘random number generation’ technique poses a major challenge for ballistic missile defense systems tracking the 9M723 missile. (Arms Control Wonk, 08.13.25).

Nuclear arms

Prior to the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin told his aides participating in an April 14 “Meeting on preparations for the Russian-American summit:” “the present U.S. administration… as everyone knows, has been making what I consider to be fairly vigorous and sincere efforts to halt hostilities, resolve the crisis, and reach agreements that serve the interests of all parties involved in this conflict. The aim is to establish long-term conditions for peace not only between our countries but also in Europe and indeed globally—especially if we proceed to subsequent stages involving agreements on strategic offensive arms control.” (Kremlin.ru, 08.14.25.)
• Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced that the upcoming Zapad-2025 Russian-Belarusian military exercises, scheduled for September 12–16 in Belarus, will include training for the use of nuclear weapons and for the use of the Oreshnik MBRM as part of strategic deterrence. Khrenin said the drills are a response to increased military activity near Belarus’s borders and aim to test the Union State’s readiness to repel aggression while emphasizing peaceful intentions. (Zvezdanews, 08.13.25)
• Satellite imagery shows Russia is preparing to test its new nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed Burevestnik cruise missile on Novaya Zemlya, just as Putin readies for talks with Trump in Alaska. The test, likely to occur around the summit, involves extensive activity at the Pankovo site. The Burevestnik, which NATO calls “Skyfall,” has an almost unlimited range but has had little previous success. Researchers say the timing could send a message about Russian nuclear capabilities as arms control agreements lapse and U.S. missile defense initiatives expand. (Reuters, 08.13.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Investigators have uncovered evidence that Russia is at least partly responsible for a recent hack of the computer system that manages U.S. federal court documents, including highly sensitive records with information that could reveal sources and people charged with national security crimes, according to several people briefed on the breach. It is not clear what entity is responsible, whether an arm of Russian intelligence might be behind the intrusion or if other countries were also involved, which some of the people familiar with the matter described as a yearslong effort to infiltrate the system. (New York Times, 08.13.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

Prior to the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Europe to back tougher tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy, warning “it’s put up or shut up time” as the U.S. considers higher sanctions if the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska fails to yield progress. Bessent said Trump’s administration will press European partners to match U.S. secondary tariffs on Russian oil, noting the U.S. has already imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods over New Delhi’s energy ties with Moscow. (Bloomberg, 08.13.25)
• Trump’s 50% tariff on Indian exports, partly penalizing Russian oil imports, has rattled investors and pushed Indian stocks to their worst performance against China in years. Wall Street analysts warn these trade tensions could undermine India’s manufacturing ambitions and spark more foreign investment outflows. (Bloomberg, 08.08.25)
• Russia is launching new security seminars for energy sector workers on handling emergencies, including drone strikes, after a surge in Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and oil export facilities. (Bloomberg, 08.13.25)
• Oil edges higher ahead of the Friday 15 meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.1% higher at $64.02/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures edge 0.2% higher $66.95/bbl. (Wall Street Journal, 05.15.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Of Putin, Trump said on Aug. 15: "He is a smart guy, been doing it for a long time but so have I… We get along, there's a good respect level on both sides." He also welcomed Putin's decision to bring a lot of businesspeople with him to Alaska. "But they're not doing business until we get the war settled," he said, repeating a threat of "economically severe" consequences for Russia if the summit goes badly. "For Putin, economic problems are secondary to goals, but he understands our vulnerability and costs," a Russian source said. (Reuters, 08.15.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Prior to the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

• Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet one-on-one at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday at around 11:30 a.m. local time (3:30 p.m. Eastern), according to U.S. and Russian officials. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said the leaders will begin with a private “conversation” with interpreters, making brief remarks beforehand, before moving to expanded talks over a working breakfast with delegations of five officials each, plus experts. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday's talks could last 6-7 hours. However, SkyNews reported ahead of the meeting that the U.S. side expected the talks to last about 3 hours rather than 6-7 hours. (Financial Times, 08.14.25,Wall Street Journal, 08.14.25) (Bloomberg, 08.14.25, Financial Times, 08.14.25, Moscow Times, 08.14.25, Washington Post, 08.14.25, Moscow Times, 08.14.25, Reuters, 08.15.25, )
  • On the U.S. side, the delegation will include U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, NATO SACEUR Alexus Grynkewich, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, special envoy Steve Witkoff, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, White House deputy chiefs of staff James Blair, Dan Scavino, and Beau Harrison, deputy chief of staff for strategic implementation Nick Luna, White House communications director Steven Cheung, assistant to the president for policy Robert Gabriel, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, White House staff secretary Will Scharf, chief of protocol Monica Crowley, White House director of speechwriting Ross Worthington, and Bret Baier of Fox News. Trump’s special Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg was not on the list. (SCMP, Axios, Financial Times, RM,05.15.25)
  • On the Russian side, the delegation will include Ushakov, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev—a lineup suggesting possible discussions on joint ventures in energy and the Arctic, alongside sanctions policy. Siluanov oversees the Kremlin’s sanctions response, while Dmitriev has promoted lucrative cross-border investments. Also has traveled with Putin to the summit his press secretary Dmitry Peskov. Notably absent is chief Ukraine negotiator Vladimir Medinsky. (SCMP, Axios, Financial Times, RM, 05.15.25)
  • White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the one-on-one talks will be followed by a “bilateral lunch” and a joint press conference, after which the Russian delegation will depart. The agenda will include Ukraine, broader security issues, bilateral economic cooperation, and possibly nuclear arms control. Trump has warned Putin of “very severe consequences” if the war in Ukraine continues and has expressed hope for a future trilateral meeting with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy if progress is made. (Financial Times, 08.14.25,Wall Street Journal, 08.14.25) (Bloomberg, 08.14.25, Financial Times, 08.14.25, Moscow Times, 08.14.25), Washington Post, 08.14.25, Moscow Times, 08.14.25)
• Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin have spoken at least five times since Mr. Trump was sworn in for a second term in January, and Russian forces have pushed forward all the while. (New York Times, 08.13.25)
  • Apart from a one-time trip to the United Nations, Putin has not been welcomed onto U.S. soil since 2007. (Washington Post, 08.15.25)
  • Trump is the first president to invite Putin to the U.S. since George W. Bush in 2007, although the Russian leader attended the U.N. General Assembly in New York in 2015. During Trump's first term, he met with Putin six times. (Washington Post, 08.14.25)
  • During his 25 years in office, Russian President Vladimir Putin has met with five different U.S. presidents—Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden—a total of 48 times. The upcoming Alaska summit on Aug. 15, 2025, with President Trump will mark Putin’s 49th meeting with a U.S. president. (RFE/RL, 08.13.25)
  • As Donald Trump prepares for his summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, the Financial Times reports he will do so with few, if any, Russia or Ukraine experts in the room. Career staff and policy specialists have been purged or sidelined in his second term, with negotiations handled by real estate developer Steve Witkoff and top positions for Russia-related policy left unfilled. (Financial Times, 08.13.25)
  • Officials who worked on Trump’s first-term foreign policy said that the U.S. leader focused on personal rapport, not on nitty-gritty details, with Putin and other foreign leaders. (Washington Post, 08.15.25)
  • The president is likelier to take advice from fellow leaders than he is from his own subordinates, said Fiona Hill, who was Trump’s top Russia adviser during most of his first term, including when he met Putin in Helsinki in 2018 and declared that he believed the Russian leader’s denial that he had interfered in the election. (Washington Post, 08.15.25)
• WhatsApp criticized Russia’s new ban on calls through its platform as an effort to violate the right to secure, private communication. The company said Russia is targeting WhatsApp because it offers end-to-end encryption, and pledged to keep encrypted communication available to people everywhere, including Russia. Russian authorities cited criminal concerns, but the move has impacted tens of millions of users, with disruptions reported from Aug. 10–11. (Meduza, 08.14.25)

After the beginning of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025:

• Those watching the live summit broadcast in the April 15 afternoon could note that Trump’s Air Force One plane had arrived at the at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, about 30 minutes before Putin’s Il-96. Trump then clapped his hands as he waited for Putin to disembark from his Russian-made airliner and join him on the tarmac with U.S. fifth-generation fighters in the background. The two leaders exchanged multiple handshakes, smiling at each other and facing the cameras, as F-22s and a B2 flew in a formation overhead. The two then stepped into the U.S. president’s limousine (nicknamed ‘The Beast’) for the drive to negotiations venue. There, instead of the originally planned one-on-one meeting, each was joined by two delegation members, including Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio, Sergei Lavrov and Yuri Ushakov, for the first round of talks before they would negotiate with more members of their teams present. (RM, 08.15.25)
  • One sign how keen the Russian delegation was to promote news of the summit is that Kremlin.ru posted photos of Trump welcoming Putin in person  at the U.S. base less than 2 hours after the two leaders shook hands on the tarmac. 

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q2, with Rosstat reporting sluggish 1.1% annual GDP growth after a near-zero quarter-on-quarter increase. (Moscow Times, 08.14.25)
• While the ruble has overall gained 42% against the U.S. dollar this year, it is one of the worst-performing currencies among large emerging markets over the past month. (Financial Times, 08.08.25)
• Russia’s GDP per capita in current prices for 2025 stands at $14,260, placing it behind Kazakhstan at $14,770,according to the IMF.  Also, in comparison, Turkmenistan’s GDP per capita is $13,340, while China’s $13,690, Georgia’s $9,570 and Armenia is $8,860, according to Astana Times. Current prices is not the only yardstick for comparative measurements of national economies and, is not the most accurate way for such comparisons as  it doesn’t necessarily capture the purchasing power of national currencies, according to not only IMF, but also such agencies as World Bank, and CIA. As CIA has explained in one of its World Factbooks, “Market exchange rates are frequently established by a relatively small set of goods and services (the ones the country trades) and may not capture the value of the larger set of goods the country produces… The data derived from the PPP (purchasing power parity) method probably provide the best available starting point for comparisons of economic strength and well-being between countries.”
• President Putin acknowledged a sharp rise in “hidden unemployment,” with over 199,000 Russians now on reduced hours or unpaid leave—nearly double the figure from January—despite an official jobless rate of 2.2%. (Moscow Times, 08.13.25)
• Russia’s wine output has surged, reflecting broader gains in local food production as the country pushes for self-sufficiency under Western sanctions. Since the annexation of Crimea and a subsequent import ban on EU and U.S. products, Russian food production grew over 40% from 2014 to 2023, with domestic wine, fruit, meat, and other sectors all expanding amid limited imports. (Bloomberg, 08.15.25)
• The Hong Kong-listed shares of Rusal, the aluminum producer founded by Oleg Deripaska, gained more than 10% this week. They are still down 38% since the invasion. (Financial Times, 08.08.25)
• Vladimir Putin made a stop en route to Alaska in Magadan, an impoverished region of Russia’s Far East where locals complain of a lack of investment and infrastructure issues that are common across the country. (Wall Street Journal, 08.15.25)
• More than 1,600 Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine have been nominated as candidates in the 2025 regional and local elections, according to Russia’s Central Election Commission. (Moscow Times, 08.13.25)
• A July 2025 Levada Center poll found 86% of Russians approve of President Vladimir Putin’s performance, unchanged from June. About 33% of respondents said they “can’t say anything bad” about Putin, while 27% are sympathetic and 19% admire him. Support is highest among the young, poorer respondents, and those who trust TV or social media. Nearly three-quarters (73%) want Putin to stay in office after his term ends, but only a third believe he receives complete and reliable information, while 45% think he’s given an incomplete picture of the country. (Levada Center, 08.15.25)
• A recent Levada Center poll shows that 65% of Russians approve of Stalin’s 1939 non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany, up from 13% in 2017. Only 8% condemn the decision. Most respondents (61%) blame Hitler’s Germany for starting WWII, while just 8% cite Stalin’s mistakes—a figure down from 18% in 2013. (Levada Center, 08.12.25)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• At least five workers were killed in a blast at an explosives plant in Russia’s Ryazan region, southeast of Moscow. The explosion occurred in a gunpowder workshop at the Elastic synthetic fiber plant, triggering additional blasts and a fire. Emergency officials and the Ministry for Emergency Situations confirmed the updated death toll. (Moscow Times, 08.15.25).
• The former chief executive of a Russian state-run leasing company was arrested in Dubai’s largest shopping center in a rare extradition operation carried out by Russian intelligence, exiled investigative outlet The Insider reported. Vyacheslav Solovyov’s Aug. 5 arrest at Dubai Mall was personally overseen by Gen. Alexander Filatov, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service’s (SVR) Internal Security Directorate, The Insider reported. (Moscow Times/Agence France Press, 08.11.25)
• A Russian military court has sentenced Maj. Gen. Denis Putilov, the former head of the Central Military District’s armored vehicle service, to 8.5 years in a maximum-security penal colony after finding him guilty of accepting a large bribe linked to a state defense contract. (Moscow Times/Agence France Press, 08.11.25)
• A Russian court has ordered two shipping companies to pay nearly 50 billion rubles (about $629 million) in environmental damages for a December 2024 oil spill in the Kerch Strait that devastated Black Sea coastlines and hit the regional tourism industry. The Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 tankers broke apart during a storm, spilling thousands of tons of oil. Both vessels were illegally operating beyond their seasonal limits. (Meduza, 08.13.25)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia hosted its first official military meeting with the defense chiefs of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, as Moscow deepens its defense ties in the Sahel region. The countries, now forming the pro-Russian Alliance of Sahel States (AES), have turned away from France and signed a memorandum of understanding for expanded defense cooperation with Russia. Russia’s defense minister pledged “comprehensive assistance” for stability, highlighting Moscow’s growing influence as the Sahel’s juntas confront jihadist insurgencies. (Moscow Times, 08.15.25).

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian bonds rallied as investors bet that upcoming Trump-Putin talks could revive Kyiv’s securities and boost assets linked to Russia’s economy. A bond due in 2029 rallied from 62 cents to 67 cents on the dollar during the week. Debts that are more exposed to a peace deal and economic recovery—because they will pay out extra if Ukraine beats IMF growth targets in 2028—rose from 47 cents to 54 cents. (Financial Times, 08.08.25)
• Zelenskyy and Azerbaijani President Aliyev condemned Russian strikes on Azerbaijani-operated energy sites in Ukraine, including a SOCAR oil depot and a gas compressor station supplying Europe. Zelenskyy called the attacks a deliberate attempt to block energy routes vital to Ukrainian and European independence, and congratulated Aliyev on recent Azerbaijan-Armenia agreements reached with U.S. help. (Meduza, 08.11.25)
• A Ukrainian legislator has accused members of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s inner circle of attempting to legalize €5 billion ($5.8 billion) in cryptocurrency through the acquisition of a French bank. The allegation was made on Monday by Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko. His remarks follow a July 25 report by Ukrainska Pravda, which said NABU had conducted searches in Germany at the home of Rostyslav Shurma, a former deputy to Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office.” (Al Mayadeen, 08.11.25)
• Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation has completed its probe into anti-corruption activist Vitaly Shabunin, who is accused of evading military service with the help of a unit commander. Shabunin, head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted. Authorities allege he received state pay while skipping duty under martial law. The indictment will be submitted to court after the defense reviews the case. (Korrespondent.net, 08.14.25)
• Ukraine’s Prosecutor General has announced 22 corruption-related charges against Kyiv city officials, alleging roughly UAH 230 million in damages tied to embezzlement, negligence, and overpriced or fictional public works—including school shelters and metro repairs. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko called the suspicions “absurd” and accused national authorities of undermining local self-government and obstructing city support for the military. The case highlights ongoing tensions between Ukraine’s central government and the Kyiv city administration. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.14.25)
• A State Security Department employee in Ukraine has been charged with bribery after accepting $4,000 to illegally remove a mobilized soldier from a military training center to avoid service. The deputy commander of the unit also assisted, and both were detained en route to Kyiv with money and military documents. The cadet was charged with desertion, and investigators are probing possible involvement in other cases of unauthorized removals from military centers in the Chernihiv region. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.14.25)
• Bulgarian authorities searched the homes and offices of arms dealers across the country Tuesday as part of a corruption investigation launched by Ukraine, officials said. The raids, carried out in multiple regions including Sofia, followed a request for legal assistance from Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau, which is probing alleged overpricing in arms sales to Kyiv. (OCCRP, 08.13.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Donald Trump wrote in his Truth Social account on Aug. 15: “I had a wonderful talk with the highly respected President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko. The purpose of the call was to thank him for the release of 16 prisoners. We are also discussing the release of 1,300 additional prisoners. Our conversation was a very good one. We discussed many topics, including President Putin’s visit to Alaska. I look forward to meeting President Lukashenko in the future. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” (Truth Social, 08.15.25) Reuters reported on Aug. 8 that Lukashenko has indicated he will not stand for another term as president (he has been president of Belarus since 1994). Given that Lukashenko’s term formally expires in January 2030, and President Trump’s expires in January 2029, that “future” meeting should take place sooner rather than later.

  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has invited Donald Trump and his family to visit Minsk, and the invitation “has been accepted,” a Telegram channel linked to Lukashenko’s office said. (Financial Times, 08.15.25)
  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in an interview that he did not intend to seek another term, and denied he was lining up his son as a successor. (Reuters, 08.08.25)
• Despite headlines touting a “historic” peace, the Washington summit between Azerbaijan and Armenia only produced a ceremonial declaration—the actual peace treaty remains unsigned. Key issues, including Armenia’s constitutional claims and the fate of Armenian prisoners, are unresolved. The so-called “Trump Route” linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan was left out of the treaty, with Iran openly opposing the transit corridor. Russia’s regional influence continues to wane. (Meduza, 08.12.25)
• Iran strongly opposes the U.S.-brokered “Trump Route” corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia, a top aide to Supreme Leader Khamenei said. The advisor called the plan a threat to regional security and warned that Tehran and Moscow both object to granting U.S. development rights or altering borders in the South Caucasus.
  (Bloomberg, 08.10.25)
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has allocated $2 million for humanitarian aid to Ukraine following Russian strikes on Azerbaijani energy facilities in Odesa. The funds will go toward electrical equipment for Ukraine’s energy sector. Aliyev and Zelenskyy condemned the attacks and pledged continued energy cooperation despite the strikes. (pravda.com.ua, 08.11.25)
• Poland will deport 63 Ukrainians and Belarusians after mass violence erupted at a Warsaw concert, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced. The group is among 109 people detained after the incident at a stadium event with 60,000 attendees. Tusk urged against anti-Ukrainian sentiment and warned of Russian provocations aimed at dividing Poles and Ukrainians. (Bloomberg, 08.12.25)
• Polish prosecutors have charged six people—three Poles and three Belarusians—with carrying out arson attacks allegedly orchestrated by Russian and Belarusian intelligence, marking what Prime Minister Donald Tusk calls an “intensifying campaign of sabotage.” The incidents include fires at sites in Gdynia, Gdańsk, and Marki. Polish authorities have recently detained or convicted dozens suspected of espionage and sabotage as Warsaw leads European support for Ukraine. (Financial Times, 08.13.25)

Quotable and notable:

• Fiona Hill, who served as senior director for European and Russian affairs in the National Security Council during Mr. Trump's first term, said that Mr. Trump was not the only leader taking a risk by taking the meeting. Mr. Putin's campaign against Ukraine has extended far longer than he anticipated, a miscalculation that has chipped away at the idea that he is a grand strategist, Ms. Hill said. There is the risk, she added, that Mr. Trump again loses patience with the peacemaking process, as he has in recent weeks. ‘Maybe we're getting there, where that view of Putin is going to shift,'' Ms. Hill said of Mr. Trump. ''And that is dangerous for Putin.'' (New York Times, 08.13.25)
• David Ignatius wrote in his Washington Post column on Aug. 13 that President Eisenhower didn’t just pressure his defiant ally (much as Trump has done with Zelenskyy); he squeezed the other side, too. “He warned North Korea and its Soviet and Chinese backers that if they didn’t end the war, the United States might use nuclear weapons. To sustain the peace after the armistice, Eisenhower crafted a mutual defense treaty for South Korea, explains Harvard professor Graham Allison,” Ignatius wrote. (Washington Post, 08.13.25)
• Senior CEIP fellow Tatyana Stanovaya wrote: “Regarding territories, in my understanding, Putin is ready to trade territories according to the following arrangement (which is not new, and was discussed back in April): withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy regions; Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk; and freezing the contact line in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. There is nothing new in this, and Putin does not need to gain more land at an enormous cost, except in the event that further attempts at settlement reach a deadlock (which is very likely).” (Tatyana Stanovaya, 08.13.25)

What Trump and Putin Had Promised to Do or Say at Their August 15 Summit:

One element of taking stock of the Trump-Putin summit (when it is reported on ‘in full,’ including details from insider) would be to re-examine what each of the two leaders said they would or would not do at the summit and then ascertain what they actually achieved at the summit. 

For instance, Donald Trump said the following prior to the summit:

• In a call ahead of the Alaska summit, Trump agreed with European leaders and Ukraine’s President Zelensky on key "red lines" for the talks with Putin: a ceasefire as a prerequisite, territorial discussions to start from current front lines, binding Western security guarantees, Ukraine’s participation in any deal, and no legal recognition of Russian-occupied regions.
• Trump warned Putin of “very severe consequences” if Russia refuses a ceasefire.
• Trump said that while possible territorial swaps would be discussed at the summit, "I’ve got to let Ukraine make that decision," emphasizing, "I’m not here to negotiate for Ukraine. I’m here to get him at a table.”  Trump promised that Ukraine would have a say in any peace deal, and stated that no agreement would be finalized without a follow-up meeting involving Zelensky, to decide on contentious issues. He insisted he would not “divvy up” Ukraine without Kyiv’s input.
• Regarding economic issues, Trump said that Russian businesspeople coming to Alaska would "not [be] doing business until we get the war settled," and repeated a threat of "economically severe" consequences for Russia if the summit fails.
• Trump told European leaders the US was willing to participate in security guarantees for Ukraine as long as they were outside the Nato military alliance.  On August 15, en route to Alaska, Trump stated publicly for the first time that he was open to the “possibility” of security guarantees for Ukraine “along with Europe and other countries,” but cautioned that these could not come through NATO. 

As for Vladimir Putin, he and his team said the following prior to the summit:

• Putin’s foreign ministry has ruled out any territorial concessions ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, insisting Ukraine must withdraw from all four contested regions.
• Putin told aides meeting on preparations for the Russian-American summit that the U.S. administration was making “vigorous and sincere efforts” to halt hostilities and reach agreements serving all parties’ interests, adding that the aim was to establish long-term peace “especially if we proceed to subsequent stages involving agreements on strategic offensive arms control,” implying preparedness to negotiate a long-range nuclear arms deal.
• The Russian delegation to Alaska included Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev, a lineup suggesting possible discussions on joint ventures in energy and the Arctic, alongside sanctions policy.
• Kremlin insiders say Russia is only considering a temporary ceasefire in exchange for Ukrainian land.

Footnotes

1. Quotes given as translated by an interpreter during a Sky News broadcast.

2. After Putin’s proposal to Witkoff, diplomacy intensified. Trump briefed European leaders and Zelenskyy, relaying Witkoff’s claim that Russia might withdraw from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson for full Donetsk control. The following day, Witkoff changed his account in a call with European aides, now suggesting Russia would both withdraw and freeze the front line. European officials, seeking clarity, demanded another call. In the third discussion, Witkoff altered his position again, stating the only Russian offer was for Ukraine to withdraw from Donetsk in exchange for a cease-fire—an offer swiftly rejected by Zelenskyy and Europeans. (Wall Street Journal, RM, 08.10.25)

3. French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen published a joint statement on Aug. 9 expressing support for U.S.-led peace efforts and calling for Ukrainian and European involvement in future peace negotiations. (ISW, 08.10.25)

4. The plan shocked Zelenskyy, who hasn't been invited to Alaska, and European leaders. He described it, following Saturday's conversation with the U.K.'s Starmer, as "a plan to reduce everything to discussing the impossible," and said Ukraine wouldn't give its land to anyone. (Wall Street Journal, 08.11.25)
5. Trump said on Aug. 13 that he wants a follow-up summit with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately afterwards, ideally while they're still in Alaska. He told Fox News radio that his goal was "getting peace fast," and he expects this meeting to produce results, though perhaps not an immediate ceasefire. (Axios, 08.15.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson.