This Week’s Highlights

• U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Aug. 14 it would be "just nuts" to allow Iran to resume its trade in conventional weapons, according to The Washington Post. Pompeo drew a red line as the U.N. Security Council prepared to vote on extending the embargo, which expires Oct. 18 as part of JCPOA, later on Aug. 14. A draft resolution submitted by Washington to the U.N. Security Council seeking an extension of the arms embargo violates the provisions of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the agreements on the Iranian nuclear program, Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said, according to Interfax.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 14 proposed a video P5 summit in a bid to avoid “confrontation and escalation,” according to Reuters. “The issue is urgent,” Putin said, adding that the alternative was “only further escalation of tensions, increasing risk of conflict—such a scenario must be avoided.” The date of the summit is yet to be set and preparations for the event are still under way, Lavrov said earlier. Russia is working with other nuclear powers to once again confirm the principle of inadmissibility of nuclear war, Lavrov also said, TASS reports. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump repeated comments that he intends to invite Putin to the G7 summit in the U.S. this autumn, bne IntelliNews reports.
• While Indian and Chinese soldiers are locked in a stand-off in Ladakh, the militaries of the two countries are likely to participate in a multinational exercise, which Russia is hosting from Sept. 15 to 26, according to The New Indian Express. Russia has invited other CSTO and SCO members to send troops to participate in its Caucasus 2020 wargames and the militaries of 18 countries have reportedly agreed to do so, including India, according to an Indian army officer.  
• Tens of thousands of people flooded the heart of Minsk on Aug. 14 to protest a brutal police crackdown this week on peaceful protesters that followed a disputed election, in which authorities claimed President Alexander Lukashenko won over 80 percent of the vote, while his opponent  Svetlana Tikhanovskaya won 10 percent. After fleeing to Lithuania, Tikhanovskaya has called for mass weekend rallies across the country in support of her claim of having won the election. Thousands of protesters were detained in Belarus earlier this week with some of them claiming torture. The protests did not dissuade Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping from congratulating Lukashenko. In contrast, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on authorities in Belarus to protect protesters and give the country's citizens more political freedom, while Joe Biden condemned the falsification of the Belarusian elections. In addition, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has called for sanctions to show the bloc’s support for the Belarusian people’s rights “to fundamental freedoms and democracy.”
• Russia has become the first country to grant regulatory approval to a vaccine against COVID-19, called Sputnik V, with mass production and immunization of key workers to begin in the next few weeks. Western experts have questioned Russia’s ability to develop and approve a safe and effective vaccine even more quickly than projects in Europe, China and the U.S. that are proceeding at full speed, the Financial Times reports. They also criticized Russian regulators and vaccine developers for failing to make scientific and technical information available for independent assessment. Nevertheless, Russia will start the production of its COVID-19 vaccine within two weeks, according to Xinhua. Additionally, Vietnam has registered to buy a Russian COVID-19 vaccine, according to Reuters.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The Lepse nuclear service ship, long one of the most dangerous Soviet era radiation hazards in northwest Russia, has finally been emptied of the aged spent nuclear fuel in its holds, marking a major milestone in an international cleanup effort. The Lepse served the Soviet Union’s nuclear icebreaker fleet from 1934 until the 1980s, when it encountered rough seas and spilled highly radioactive waste inside its cargo hold. Decommissioning of the ship began in 2012. (Bellona, 08.12.20, The Moscow Times, 08.14.20)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Aug. 14 it would be "just nuts" to allow Iran to resume its trade in conventional weapons. Pompeo drew a red line as the U.N. Security Council is preparing to vote on extending the embargo, which expires Oct. 18 as part of JCPOA. Pompeo said he expected the vote later on Aug. 14. (The Washington Post, 08.14.20)
  • The Trump administration earlier backed away from a hardline resolution on Iran that risked alienating U.N. Security Council allies, and will instead present a “clean” version to extend the expiring arms embargo. The new proposed U.S. resolution, dropped tough language condemning past Iranian actions, attempting to enlist other countries to conduct vessel inspections and weapons seizures and listing specific Iranians for travel bans and asset freezes. (Financial Times, 08.11.20)
  • Kelly Craft, U.S. ambassador to the U.N.,  has appealed to France, Germany and the U.K. to put forward a compromise measure to secure an extension of an arms embargo on Iran, saying her “patience is running very thin.” (Financial Times, 08.13.20)
  • The draft resolution submitted by Washington to the U.N. Security Council seeking an extension of the arms embargo violates the provisions of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the agreements on the Iranian nuclear program, Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said. (Interfax, 08.14.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• Pompeo said he warned Russia against offering bounties for killing American and coalition troops in Afghanistan, even as U.S. President Donald Trump has denigrated as a ''hoax'' a CIA assessment that Russia carried out such a covert operation. ''If the Russians are offering money to kill Americans or, for that matter, other Westerners as well, there will be an enormous price to pay. That's what I shared with [Russian] Foreign Minister [Sergei] Lavrov,'' Pompeo told RFE/RL. ''I know our military has talked to their senior leaders, as well. We won't brook that. We won't tolerate that.'' (New York Times, 08.14.20)
• The U.S. has failed to supply facts confirming alleged ties between Russian intelligence services and the Taliban movement even after Lavrov had requested this in a phone call with Pompeo, foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. (TASS, 08.13.20)
• Russian state media say three MiG-31 fighter jets approached a U.S. Air Force RQ-4B Global Hawk high-altitude, remotely-piloted, surveillance aircraft over the Chukchi Sea Aug. 11. On Aug. 13, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the Su-27 fighter jet of the Southern Military District’s air defense quick reaction alert forces intercepted a U.S. Air Force RC-135 reconnaissance plane and a U.S. Navy P-8A maritime patrol aircraft over the Black Sea. (Defense Blog, 08.13.20, Defense Blog, 08.11.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. plans to deploy troops to Eastern Europe on a permanent basis would go against the NATO-Russia Founding Act and would not go unanswered, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said. High-ranking U.S. military commanders said earlier that the U.S. plans to redeploy some of the military units pulled out of Germany to the territory of Romanian, according to Zakharova. (Interfax, 08.13.20)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 14 proposed a video P5 summit in a bid to avoid “confrontation and escalation.” “The issue is urgent,” Putin said in a statement, adding that the alternative was “only further escalation of tensions, increasing risk of conflict—such a scenario must be avoided.” The date of the P5 summit is yet to be set, preparations for the event are still under way, Lavrov said earlier. Russia is working with other nuclear powers to once again confirm the principle of inadmissibility of nuclear war, Lavrov said. (TASS, 08.11.20, Reuters, 08.14.20) 

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman allegedly encouraged Putin to intervene in the Syrian war in 2015, according to a new lawsuit filed in the U.S. by former Saudi intelligence official Saad al-Jabri. According to court documents filed on Aug. 6, MBS spoke to Putin five years ago, "encouraging Russian intervention in Syria" on behalf of Damascus, despite Saudi Arabia's public support for Syrian rebels. (Middle East Eye, 08.07.20)
• Elements of the Islamic State group are working to rebuild in western Syria, where the U.S. has little visibility or presence, the top U.S. commander for the Middle East Gen. Frank McKenzie warned on Aug. 12. In the region west of the Euphrates River where the Syrian regime is in control “conditions are as bad or worse” than they were leading up to the rise of the Islamic State, he said. The western part of the country has historically been controlled by Russian-backed Syrian government troops. (AP, 08.12.20)
• Russia has suspended its participation in patrols with Turkey along the strategic M4 highway in Syria’s Idlib province. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Aug. 13: “Joint Russian-Turkish patrols on the Idlib highway have been stopped due to continued provocations of militants in the region.” (Middle East Monitor, 08.14.20)

Cyber security:

• The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) and FBI released an advisory on cybersecurity on Aug. 13 warning about previously undisclosed Russian malware, a set of hacking tools named “Drovorub.” A news release by the agencies said a unit within Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency—the 85th Main Special Service Center (GTsSS), military unit 26165—was deploying the malware as part of its cyberespionage operations. (RFE/RL, 08.13.20)

Elections interference:

• Trump says his administration will watch closely for possible interference in the November presidential election by Russia, China and Iran. But he said he believes the last thing that any of the three countries would want is for him to win. “We are going to watch all of them. We have to be very careful,” Trump said Aug. 7 in response to a question about the warning earlier in the day from Bill Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence Security Center. (RFE/RL, 08.08.20)
• Russia is using a range of techniques to denigrate former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, American intelligence officials said Aug. 7 in their first public assessment that Moscow continues to try to interfere in the 2020 campaign to help Trump. At the same time, the officials said China preferred that Trump be defeated in November and was weighing whether to take more aggressive action in the election. (New York Times, 08.07.20)
• U.S. officials told The New York Times Magazine that the draft of a classified document reporting that Russia favored Trump in the 2020 election was changed to soften its assessment. In September, a new version of the document was circulated with edits. It no longer clearly said that Russia favored the current president. Instead, in a summary, it said, “Russian leaders probably assess that chances to improve relations with the U.S. will diminish under a different U.S. president.” (New York Times, 08.08.20)
• In an upcoming book, Michael Cohen, Trump’s former attorney, alleges that Trump worked with Russia to win the 2016 presidential election. He alleges that Trump worked to get close to Putin and “his coterie of corrupt billionaire oligarchs,” according to an excerpt from the book. (NBC News, 08.13.20)
• Trump took a swing at his FBI director Christopher Wray on Aug. 13, expressing impatience with the bureau’s level of cooperation with inquiries into its investigation of the Trump campaign in 2016. Speaking by phone with Fox Business, Trump railed against past investigations of his former adviser Carter Page, his former national security adviser Michael Flynn and his own conduct as president. (The Washington Post, 08.13.20)
• Former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith, who was assigned to the Russia investigation, plans to admit that he altered an email from the CIA that investigators relied on to seek renewed court permission in 2017 for a secret wiretap on Carter Page. (New York Times, 08.14.20) 

Energy exports from CIS:

• The export revenue of Gazprom Export, the trading arm of the Russian gas giant, was halved year on year over the first six months of this year. Gazprom’s export revenue fell 51 percent year on year to only $11.3 billion, with June prices at $82 per million cubic meters, reports Kommersant, based on recently reported data from Russia’s Federal Customs Service. (bne IntelliNews, 08.11.20)
• The coronavirus pandemic will have an even bigger impact on the global economy and its demand for oil than previously expected, OPEC said Aug. 12. The cartel estimates that world-wide oil demand this year will amount to 90.6 million barrels a day, 9.1 million barrels less than last year. The 9.1 percent decline is deeper than OPEC forecast in its previous monthly report. (Wall Street Journal, 08.12.20)
• Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and Lavrov have emphasized their nations' shared interests despite lingering frictions. During a visit to Moscow on Aug. 11 to discuss wide-ranging issues, Maas reaffirmed Berlin's interest in the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline intended to carry Russian natural gas to Germany. (RFE/RL, 08.12.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Trump on Aug. 10 has repeated comments that he intends to invite Putin to the G7 summit in the United States this autumn. (bne IntelliNews, 08.11.20)
• The legal and political battle over the U.S. Justice Department's effort to drop its prosecution of Trump's former national security adviser Michael Flynn returned to court Aug. 11. The full U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit is considering whether U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan must immediately sign off on the government's move to undo Flynn's guilty plea. (The Washington Post, 08.11.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed 5,065 new coronavirus infections Aug. 14, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 912,823. Over the past 24 hours, 114 people have died, bringing the total official toll to 15,498. (The Moscow Times, 08.14.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• Russia has become the first country to grant regulatory approval to a vaccine against COVID-19, with mass production and immunization of key workers to begin in the next few weeks. The move, the first time a COVID-19 vaccine has been approved for civilian use, underscores Moscow’s desire to rush the vaccine. The Russian vaccine, which will be marketed with the name Sputnik V, was developed by the state-run Gamaleya Institute in Moscow and financed by the Russian Direct Investment Fund. (Financial Times, 08.11.20)
  • Russia will start the production of its COVID-19 vaccine within two weeks, the country's health minister Mikhail Murashko said Aug. 12. Western experts have questioned Russia’s ability to develop and approve a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine even more quickly than projects in Europe, China and the U.S. that are proceeding at full speed. They also criticized Russian regulators and vaccine developers for failing to make scientific and technical information available for independent assessment. (Financial Times, 08.11.20, Xinhua, 08.12.20)
  • Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia's Direct Investment Fund, which partnered with Gamaleya Institute for the vaccine, said Russia had followed all the necessary procedures to ensure a safe vaccine, adding he had used the vaccine on himself and members of his family. (Wall Street Journal, 08.11.20)
  • More than half of Russian doctors aren’t ready to get the country’s highly touted coronavirus vaccine, according to an online survey of more than 3,000 healthcare professionals obtained by the RBC news website Aug. 14. (The Moscow Times, 08.14.20)
• Russia's GDP fell by 8.5 percent in the second quarter of 2020 due to the lockdown quarantine measures imposed across the country reeling from the coronacrisis. (bne IntelliNews, 08.12.20)
• Looking to shore up federal funds during the pandemic, the Russian government is making good on its promise to raise taxes on dividends transferred abroad. Putin claims that most firms pay an average of just 2 percent tax on these offshore transfers. Looking to stem such capital outflows, Putin has earlier promised to hike taxes on all dividend and interest payments leaving Russia to 15 percent in January 2021. (bne IntelliNews, 08.10.20)
• Russia’s federal budget deficit grew a whopping percent in July compared to the previous month. In the first half of the year, Russia ran a 823 billion ruble deficit. In July the deficit increased by 699.2 billion rubles, bringing the total to 1.5 trillion rubles ($20.5 billion). (bne Intellinews, 08.14.20) 
• Russian gross international reserves reached a new post 2008 high, passing the $600 billion mark as of the start of August. (bne Intellinews, 08.13.20) 
• Twelve years ago, Alisher Usmanov, one of the richest men in Russia, paid $500 million for the Udokan license, which contains millions of tons of copper ore. Usmanov plans to invest about $2.9 billion in developing the mine, which has come online early, as originally the launch of the plant was scheduled for 2023. (bne IntelliNews, 08.10.20)
• Russia’s leading mobile operator Mobile TeleSystems has gone into a strategic partnership with Spotify. To help promote the new service, MTS will offer its subscribers six months of free access to Spotify’s premium content to rope them in. (bne IntelliNews, 08.12.20)
• Protesters in Russia's Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk , where rallies against Putin's role in a regional political crisis have been going on for almost a month, have voiced their support for demonstrations against the presidential vote in Belarus. (RFE/RL, 08.10.20)
• The Levada Center questioned Muscovites on whether and how they voted in the past referendum on constitutional amendments. Of those who said they had voted, 57 percent supported the amendments, while 34 percent said they voted against. (Russia Matters, 08.12.20)
• Representatives of the indigenous peoples of Russia's far northern Taimyr Peninsula have marched against operations of the world’s largest palladium and nickel producer—Nornickel, saying their rights are being violated by local officials and large businesses—including Nornickel—operating in the region. (RFE/RL, 08.12.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• While Indian and Chinese soldiers are locked in a stand-off in Ladakh, the militaries of the two countries are likely to participate in a multinational exercise, which Russia is hosting from Sept. 15 to 26 in its Astrakhan region and to which it has invited all Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member countries and a few other countries. The militaries of 18 countries will partake in the exercise together. An Indian army officer said, “Russia has sent us an invitation for a multilateral exercise Kavkaz 2020 and the invitations have been sent to China and Pakistan, too.” India has confirmed its participation, the officer said. (The New Indian Express, 08.13.20)
• The Russian Pacific Fleet’s marines held drills for the first time to land a parachute assault force on the Komandorski Islands east of the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Fleet’s press office reported on Aug. 12. (TASS, 08.14.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• No significant developments.

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Imagery appearing on social media channels seems to show the deployment of a Russian-made surface-to-air missile system—from either the S-300 or S-400 family—deployed near Ras Lanuf on the Libyan coast. The oil port is controlled by the Libyan National Army commanded by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. (The Drive, 08.06.20)
• French President Emmanuel Macron spoke Aug. 12 to the leaders of Russia and Iran and urged them to cooperate with the rest of the international community to restore stability in Lebanon. In his phone call with Putin, the French leader also discussed post-election violence in Belarus. Macron told Putin he is “very worried about the situation in Belarus and the violence that citizens have faced during the elections,” the Elysee said in a statement. (AP, 08.12.20, The Moscow Times, 08.12.20, RFE/RL, 08.12.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• China experienced tough pressure on the Internet from the U.S., and Russia should also be ready for such actions, Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said Aug. 12. Several years ago "the United States discussed an idea of disconnecting Russia from the payment verification system, that is, from the SWIFT system. The People’s Republic of China experiences now such fairly serious, tough pressure," Medvedev said. (TASS, 08.12.20)
• Russia plans investment of $1.5 billion in rare earth minerals, critical to the defense, telecommunications and renewable energy sectors, as it strives to become the biggest producer after China by 2030, Alexei Besprozvannykh, Russia’s deputy industry and trade minister said. Russia has reserves of 12 million tons, or 10 percent of the global total and the Russian government wants to increase Russia’s share of global rare earths output to 10 percent by 2030 from 1.3 percent now. (Reuters, 08.13.20)
• Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will be a guinea pig for a controversial Russian coronavirus vaccine, his spokesman said on Aug. 12, as the Southeast Asian nation emerged as a frontrunner for overseas clinical trials. (The Moscow Times, 08.12.20)

Ukraine:

• Russia's attempts to revisit its role in the Normandy Format and the Trilateral Contact Group make the European Union concerned, EU Ambassador to Russia Markus Ederer said. "The overall attitude of the Russian Federation's delegation at the latest round of the presidential advisors' talks in the Normandy Format in Berlin and then Dmitry Kozak's recent letter to his counterpart in Germany are only some of the signs on the wall," he said. The letter proposed to ditch technical talks on Ukraine regarding the level of political advisors in the so-called Normandy format. (Interfax, 08.10.20, Reuters, 07.30.20)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Kyiv has already handed a list of detainees in East Ukraine that could potentially be exchanged to OSCE representatives, the Ukrainian president's press service reported Aug. 13. Earlier, Ukrainian Ombudswoman Lyudmyla Denisova said Russia is currently holding 133 Ukrainian citizens on politically motivated charges, including 97 Crimean Tatars. (RFE/RL, 08.10.20, Xinhua, 08.13.20)
• According to data provided by the State Customs Service, between January and July 2020, Ukraine imported goods worth $28.8 billion, which is 13 percent less compared to the same period last year. For seven months of this year, Ukraine’s exports of goods amounted to $26.6 billion, which is 7 percent less compared to the same period last year. The share of EU countries in the total volume of imports of goods into Ukraine in January-July 2020 made up 43 percent, while CIS countries made up16 percent. (Ukrinform, 08.14.20)
• The use of payment cards jumped 17 percent year on year during the first half of this year in Ukraine, to 2.74 billion transactions, reports the National Bank of Ukraine. The size of the average transaction edged up 7 percent, to $15. (Ukraine Business News, 08.10.20)

Belarus:

• Tens of thousands of people flooded the heart of Minsk on Aug. 14 in a show of anger over a brutal police crackdown this week on peaceful protesters that followed a disputed election, as authorities sought to ease rising public fury by freeing at least 2,000 who were jailed after earlier demonstrations. The Aug. 14 crowds grew to more than 20,000, filling central Independence Square. A Central Election Committee of Belarus official told state television that initial results showed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claiming more than 80 percent of the vote in the presidential elections on Aug. 9. His main opposition rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, received about 10 percent, according to further preliminary results released Aug. 10. Final results are expected Aug. 14, the election committee said.  At least one person has been killed. (The Washington Post, 08.10.20, AP, 08.14.20) 
• The main challenger in Belarus's disputed presidential election called Aug. 14 for mass weekend rallies across the country in support of her claim to have defeated Lukashenko. "Belarusians will never want to live with the previous government again. The majority do not believe in his victory," Tikhanovskaya said in a video address. Tikhanovskaya has left Belarus and is in Lithuania, and has rejected official election results and claimed results from some polling stations that had released their counts to the public showed her with “70-80 percent” of the vote. (AFP, 08.14.20, RFE/RL, 08.11.20, Financial Times, 08.14.20, Financial Times, 08.10.20) 
• Torture claims prompted workers at some state-owned factories—Lukashenko’s political base—to demand new elections. Belarus’s prime minister was on Aug. 14 sent to negotiate with striking workers at the Minsk Automobile Plant, one of the country’s largest factories.  Workers from at least half a dozen of Belarus’ biggest state-owned companies walked off shop floors on Aug. 13 as part of a general strike that spread like a bush fire through the country's top companies. (bne IntelliNews, 08.13.20, Financial Times, 08.14.20)
• The Belarusian Interior Ministry on Aug. 14 said more than 2,000 people who were detained during protests have been released. Yuri Karaev, Belarus’s interior minister, said late on Aug. 13 that everyone arrested at the protests would be freed by 6am on Aug. 14. Karaev said in an interview on state television that “as a commander I want to take responsibility myself and apologize humanely” to people who were beaten and arrested but had not taken part in the protest. (Financial Times, 08.14.20, RFE/RL, 08.14.20)
• The main challenger Lukashenko in the Aug. 9 presidential election, Tikhanovskaya, has called on her supporters to "defend our choice," while urging weekend protests. (RFE/RL, 08.14.20)
• Detainees emerging from a detention center in Minsk said they had been beaten and deprived of food, water, sleep and medical care. (The Moscow Times, 08.14.20) 
• Putin was the second world leader to congratulate Lukashenko on his victory Aug. 10; China's Xi Jinging was the first. Russia moved swiftly to congratulate Lukashenko for his electoral win and press for stronger ties with its neighbor ahead of what additional expected protests. Putin appears to detect an opportunity to reestablish its influence in Belarus by shoring up Lukashenko after an unprecedented wave of protests following the Aug. 9 vote. In his message to Belarus's leader, Putin said he hoped the two countries would expand their integration, building on strong economic and security ties. Russia said on Aug. 13 it was concerned by the situation in Belarus and said there were attempts by outside forces to meddle in and destabilize the country following the contested election. (Wall Street Journal, 08.11.20, The Washington Post, 08.10.20, Reuters, 08.13.20)
• “The presidential campaign was accompanied by total falsification and misinformation. In such an atmosphere, talking about how much Lukashenko actually scored is like fortune-telling by reading the coffee grounds,” said first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and Relations with Compatriots Konstantin Zatulin. “Obviously he didn't win that many votes. The story that 40 percent [of the Belarusian population] voted early is also a hoax. The results that have been announced are not credible.” (bne IntelliNews, 08.11.20)
• Pompeo called on authorities in Belarus to protect protesters and give the country's citizens more political freedom, the latest pressure on a regime that might now face new sanctions from the neighboring EU. "We want the people in Belarus to have the freedoms that they're demanding," Pompeo said. He said the Belarusian election Aug. 9 "wasn't held in a way that was free or fair." (Wall Street Journal, 08.12.20)
• After more than a decade of diplomatic cold shoulder, the U.S. was poised to send a U.S. ambassador to Belarus. Now, some Democratic lawmakers are getting cold feet, just as the ambassador goes through the Senate confirmation process, worried that sending an envoy could be seen as a reward to Lukashenko at the worst possible time. (Foreign Policy, 08.12.20)
• Biden released a strong statement condemning the falsification of the Belarusian elections on Aug. 10 and called for an end to the police violence against peaceful protesters. (bne IntelliNews, 08.11.20)
• The European Commission president has called for sanctions over the brutal post-election crackdown in Belarus as EU foreign ministers prepared for emergency talks on the crisis. Ursula von der Leyen urged the countermeasures on Aug. 14 to show the bloc’s support for the Belarus people’s rights “to fundamental freedoms and democracy” following the disputed vote. The EU, which lifted most of its sanctions in Belarus in 2016, this week threatened new action against people involved in rigging the election or repressing dissent. (Financial Times, 08.14.20)
• At least nine European Union countries and the bloc’s executive arm have called for new sanctions on Belarus following the brutal police crackdown on peaceful, Reuters reports. Germany, Lithuania, Latvia and Sweden have spoken publicly in favor of sanctions against Belarus, and Austria was another hawk. (bne Intellinews, 08.14.20, Reuters, 08.13.20)
• Hungary has called on the EU to pursue "dialogue" with Lukashenko. Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto issued the call on Aug. 13, despite the brutal suppression in Belarus of protesters. (RFE/RL, 08.13.20)
• Armed and masked men raided the Belarus offices of Uber and Russian tech giant Yandex on Aug. 13 as authorities continued to crack down on protesters disputing the country's presidential election results. (The Moscow Times, 08.13.20)
• Some 300 CEOs of Belarus’ leading IT companies and their investors have signed a letter demanding a new election, an end to police violence and the release of political prisoners, otherwise they will take their businesses out of the country. (bne IntelliNews, 08.13.20)
• Investors have dumped Belarusian government bonds this week as the threat of sanctions grows, pushing the price of a six-year bond down to 92 cents on the dollar, from almost 99 cents when it was issued in June. (Financial Times, 08.14.20)
• Belarus’ inflation in July remained flat compared to June at 5.2 percent year on year and 0.19 percent month on month, which remains close to the National Bank of Belarus' target range, Belstat reported this week. (bne IntelliNews, 08.13.20)
• Belarus has returned a group of 32 Russian nationals to Russia after detaining them and accusing them of being mercenaries, the Russian General Prosecutor’s Office said in a statement on Aug. 14. (Reuters, 08.14.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• “I think that at some point Russia will realize that far from intimidating Georgia they have also united once again the desire [to join] and very much accelerated the tempo of Georgians marching [into] NATO and the European Union,” David Bakradze, Georgia’s ambassador to the United States, told Foreign Policy in an interview. (Foreign Policy, 08.10.20)
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has expressed concern in a phone call with Putin that Russia has provided military supplies to Armenia in the weeks following deadly clashes along the border between the two South Caucasus countries in July. Baku claimed that “more than 400 tons” of military goods have been provided by Russia to Armenia “via the airspace of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran” since the clashes erupted. (RFE/RL, 08.13.20)
• Azerbaijan's ambassador to Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro, Eldar Hasanov, has been detained on embezzlement charges. (RFE/RL, 08.14.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.