7 Things to Know

1. Russia advanced on 477 square kilometers (184 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in August, Moscow's biggest monthly increase since October 2022, according to data supplied by the Institute for the Study of War and analyzed by AFP. Meanwhile Ukrainian armed forces are solidifying to between 1,150 and 1,300 square kilometers of advances in Russia’s Kursk region, according to the data on claimed and confirmed troop movements reported by AFP. The most recent assessment by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT said that as of Sept. 5, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) had regained positions in Niu York, Nelipivka and near Lyptsi, while Russian forces advanced near Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, Hirnyk, as well as in Kalynivka, Lisivka and Halytsynivka. This week saw the Russian military command continue to prioritize the offensive effort on the key hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, according to ISW, while AFU chief Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed on Sept. 6 that this offensive effort has not advanced in the past six days. The sides have also continued to exchange UAV, bomb and missile strikes this week, with Russian Iskanders hitting targets in Poltava on Sept. 3, killing 55 and injuring more than 270 in the deadliest strike this year, according to WSJ.
2. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has claimed that countries bordering Ukraine have a “duty” to shoot down Russian missiles before they enter their airspace despite the opposition of NATO, whose outgoing chief Jens Stoltenberg earlier rejected a proposal to consider intercepting in Ukraine’s airspace aerial vehicles fired in the direction of Poland’s territory. “Warsaw had an obligation to ensure the safety of its citizens irrespective of fears that interceptions over Ukrainian territory could embroil the Atlantic alliance in the war,” Sikorski argued in interview with FT this week. According to Stoltenberg’s July remarks, however, such interception would risk the alliance “becoming part of the conflict.” Some western officials say such a policy would blur red lines over western intervention and possibly prompt Russian retaliation, according to FT. Stoltenberg’s concern is most probably shared by the Biden administration, which remains determined to avoid being dragged into the actual war in spite of the ongoing campaign to expand NATO countries’ involvement in it.*
3. Vladimir Putin has twice referred to China as Russia’s ally in remarks he made at a school in Russia’s Tuva region en route to Mongolia (which he also called an ally as it rolled out a red carpet for the Russian leader in spite of an ICC arrest warrant). “The People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation are allies in every sense of the word” and Russia should work with “our main partners and allies, including such a large and promising country… as the People's Republic of China,” according to Putin—who hopes to host Xi Jinping at next month's BRICS summit. As recently as last year, Putin denied plans to establish “some kind of a military-political alliance” with China, as did some of his top aides on earlier occasions (though some of them described the bilateral relations as being superior to that of allies). Moreover, Putin and Xi signed off on a declaration in March 2023 that said their countries are not in a “military-political alliance” [voyenno-politichesky soyuz], insisting that the bilateral relationship is superior to “such a form of interstate interaction.”  
4. Russia and Belarus are to sign a treaty on security guarantees and nuclear weapons in December 2024, according to Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov. "We plan to sign an interstate treaty with Russia on security guarantees for the two countries, which will lay down the principle of using nuclear weapons and conventional weapons, as well as other methods of protecting both countries that are part of the Union State," Ryzhenkov was quoted as saying by Kommersant on Sept. 2. It'd be interesting to see whether and how the “the principle of using nuclear weapons” in the treaty will differ from conditions for use of nuclear weapons outlined in Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine and its 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence. These differences (if any) may help to foresee what revisions of conditions for such use in Russian strategic documents, which Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and other Russian officials say is underway, will end up looking like. 
5. Ukraine’s parliament has appointed a new wartime cabinet after Volodymyr Zelenskyy carried out the biggest overhaul of his government since Russia’s invasion, FT reported.¹ The Ukrainian leader justified the reshuffle by what he saw as a need to acquire “new energy," but not every Ukraine watcher has been convinced by that explanation. Konstantin Skorkin of CEIP was rather harsh in his assessment of the reshuffle. “In the absence of elections, reshuffling within the government has become almost the only opportunity for the president to demonstrate at least some kind of changes in power and to uplift the spirit of the Ukrainian society. However, in reality, these reshuffles work towards even greater centralization and monopolization of power,” he wrote. “The lack of new faces and breakthrough ideas in the president's team is being compensated for by a reshuffling of powers,” he added. The Economist believes Zelenskyy has culled the cabinet because his popularity has been fading.² This U.K. newspaper reported that the reshuffle in fact signals a “further consolidation of power around Zelenskyy’s influential chief of staff Andriy Yermak.” Yevhan Mahda, a Ukrainian political analyst, concurred with this assessment in his interview with NYT.³ The reshuffle could see “an increase of Yermak’s influence,” he warned.
6. This week has seen a flurry of activity by U.S. authorities to go after Russian individuals and entities that they suspect of interfering in America’s electoral affairs. FT reported that the U.S. Department of Justice is seizing dozens of websites allegedly used by the Russian government to spread disinformation in an effort to meddle with the presidential election, and WSJ pointed to deputy chief of Putin’s staff Sergei Kiriyenko as the alleged curator of the seized domains. However, as Kiriyenko is already under sanctions, it was employees and editors of Russia's RT propaganda outlet that were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for seeking to influence the 2024 U.S. presidential election this week, according to AFP. Moreover, WSJ reported that the Biden administration accused Putin himself of orchestrating a covert campaign to influence the coming U.S. presidential election. Unfazed by the accusations, a smiling Putin claimed this week that he would be supporting Kamala Harris. “I don’t know if I’m insulted or he did me a favor," Trump said of Putin’s remarks as Bloomberg reported that “the view that has crystallized in Moscow, according to five people familiar with the latest thinking in the Kremlin, is that there really isn’t much reason to raise a glass if Trump returns to the White House.”
7. Russia’s budget deficit declined to just 331 billion rubles ($3.7 billion) or 0.2% of GDP for the first eight months of the year, according to Bloomberg.  Russia recorded a budget surplus of 767 billion rubles ($8.5 billion) in August, thanks to almost 1 trillion rubles of increased revenue from non oil-and-gas sectors compared to July, this news agency reported. The Russian government’s revenues from taxes on oil and gas surged too, totaling 778.6 billion rubles ($8.7 billion) last month, up by 21% from a year ago, according to Bloomberg. In good news for Russian consumers, consumer prices in the week through Sept. 2 fell 0.02%, according to data from the Federal Statistics Service release, this news agency reported. On the negative side, S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for Russian manufacturing fell to 52.1 last month compared to 53.6 in July, according to MT.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The IAEA is widening its oversight in Ukraine to include high-voltage power networks critical to maintaining safety at atomic plants that generate the bulk of the country’s electricity. The agency’s decision followed a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi in Kyiv. In addition, Grossi has inspected the cooling tower affected by fire last month at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and says it is "not usable in the future, so it will probably be demolished." (WNN, 09.05.24, Bloomberg, 09.04.24)
• When asked to comment on reports of strikes on the Kursk and Zaporizhzhia NPPs, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the Eastern Economic Forum on Sept. 5: “These are very dangerous terrorist acts. One can only imagine what would happen if we responded in kind, what would happen to that entire part of Europe,” according to Kremlin.ru. (RM 09.05.24)
• Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has signed a presidential decree setting the date for a national referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant for Oct. 6. (WNN, 09.03.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

•  Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, , according to U.S. and European officials, a move that gives Moscow another potent military tool in its war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow. The shipment involves a couple of hundred short-range ballistic missiles, according to Western officials. (WSJ, 09.06.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office reported Sept. 3 that the Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor's Office launched a pre-trial investigation into footage published on a Telegram channel purportedly showing Russian forces executing three Ukrainian servicemen point-blank near Toretsk after they had clearly surrendered and been disarmed. (ISW, 09.04.24)
  • Video obtained exclusively by CNN, filmed during fighting in late August near the embattled city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, shows an apparent execution by Russian troops of three surrendering Ukrainians, after their trench was overrun.  (CNN, 09.06.24)
• Nearly 700 residents of southwestern Russia’s Kursk region remain missing almost a month after Ukrainian forces launched a surprise incursion there, Russian search and rescue group Liza Alert said. (MT/AFP, 09.04.24)
• The situation in the Donbas has become increasingly difficult for Ukraine over the last month, particularly in the besieged city of Pokrovsk. More than 26,000 civilians, including more than 1,000 children, will now be forced to evacuate by car, bus and foot, military administrators said. (NYT, 09.05.24)
• A military court in southern Russia sentenced a Ukrainian special forces soldier to 20 years in prison after he was captured during a mission in annexed Crimea, federal prosecutors said Sept. 3. Oleksandr Lyubas was captured in October during an amphibious operation in which Ukrainian military intelligence soldiers reportedly arrived in Crimea on jet skis. (MT/AFP, 09.03.24)
• Ukraine will receive $800 million from the U.S. to help stabilize severely battered energy infrastructure. (Bloomberg, 08.31.24)
• The European Union on September 6 announced a new aid package to provide humanitarian aid to vulnerable Ukrainians ahead of the winter months. Balazs Ujvari, European Commission spokesman for budget, human resources, humanitarian aid, and crisis management, announced the aid package worth 40 million euros ($44 million) at a European Commission news briefing in Brussels. (RFE/RL, 09.06.24)
• Ukrainian officials are preparing for the International Monetary Fund this week to push it to devalue its currency faster, cut interest rates and strengthen its tax-raising efforts to fill the country’s budget gap, according to people familiar with the situation. The result of the IMF’s  review could unlock a $1.1 billion disbursement to Ukraine if the fund’s staff determines Ukraine is hitting program targets and has sufficient funds and policies lined up to meet its financing needs. (Bloomberg, 09.04.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Russia advanced on 477 square kilometers (184 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in August, Moscow's biggest monthly increase since October 2022, according to data supplied by the Institute for the Study of War and analyzed by AFP. The Ukrainian army, for its part, made rapid gains in early August in Russia after a surprise incursion into the border region of Kursk, gaining more than 1,100 square kilometers in two weeks But this new front has been solidifying to between 1,150 and 1,300 square kilometers of advances over the past 15 days, according to the data on claimed and confirmed troop movements. (MT/AFP, 09.02.24)
• As of Aug. 31, least 2,000 Russian troops were hemmed in against a river in the Kursk region, where repeated attempts to relieve them using pontoon bridges have failed, according to Ukrainian soldiers. (WSJ, 08.31.24)
  • The plan to invade the Kursk region was discussed by Ukraine's top military commander Oleksand Syrskiy in late July with his subordinates, according to WSJ. Russia was planning to attack Ukraine from the Kursk region before Ukraine launched its cross-border incursion last month, according to Syrskiy. (RFE/RL, 09.05.24, RM, 08.31.24)
• On Sept. 1, Ukrainian forces continued to lose ground to Russia in the country’s eastern Donetsk region. The U.K.’s defense ministry said on X on Sept. 1 that Russian forces were within 10 km (6.2 miles) of the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. (FT, 09.01.24, NYT, 09.01.24)
  • Mariana Bezuhla, a Ukrainian member of Parliament, said Ukrainian commanders have placed “zombie squads” and inexperienced troops to defend Pokrovsk. “Now we have further consequences,” she wrote last week on Facebook. “Human lives and territories.” Capturing Pokrovsk would help Russian forces by severing a crucial supply line that Ukraine uses to defend its troops on the front line. It would also help them advance further into Donetsk and threaten Ukrainian positions in southeastern Ukraine. (The Hill, 09.04.24)
• On Sept. 1, the Russian military claimed to have largely thwarted one of the largest Ukrainian drone assaults directed at Russia territory since the start of the full-scale war and said it had shot down 158 drones across 15 regions. Local officials in Russia reported fires and explosions caused by drone attacks at a number of facilities, including an oil refinery in Moscow and one of the largest energy production facilities in the central Russian region of Tver. (NYT, 09.01.24)
• On Sept. 1, Russia bombarded residential areas of Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, with ballistic missiles and powerful guided bombs, wounding more than 40 civilians, Ukrainian officials said. (NYT, 09.01.24)
• On Sept. 2, Putin called the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in the Kursk region an attempt to "stop the Russian Armed Forces' offensive in Donbas." "It didn't work. ... The Russian Armed Forces are now putting territories under control not by meters, but by square kilometers," Putin boasted at a school in the Tuva region of Russia. (Istories, 09.02.24)
• On Sept. 3, two Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles hit a military institute and a hospital in the central Ukrainian city if Poltava, killing 55 people and injuring 271 in the deadliest strike this year, Ukrainian officials said. Before the Poltava attack, Russia launched a number of strikes on Ukraine overnight, including on the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, which killed two, including an 8-year-old. A missile attack on the city of Dnipro killed another person. One Russian missile hit a hotel in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, killing four people. (WSJ, 09.04.24, ISW, 09.03.24, RFE/RL, 09.05.24, FT, 09.03.24, WP, 09.03.24, NYT, 09.03.24)
  • The Russian strike on a military academy in Poltava in eastern Ukraine on Sept. 3 highlighted the growing importance of electronic warfare systems in the two-and-a-half-year conflict. The facility that was hit, the Poltava Institute of Military Communications, offers training in radar and electronic warfare, according to Vladimir Rogov, a Kremlin-appointed occupation official in southern Ukraine. (NYT, 09.04.24)
• On Sept. 3, Zelenskyy told NBC that Ukraine would hold territory in Kursk indefinitely as part of a victory plan but has no intention to keep it permanently. Zelenskyy also stated that Russia has diverted roughly 60,000 troops from Ukraine to the Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi reported Aug. 27 that Russia redeployed over 30,000 troops from the frontline in Ukraine to Kursk Oblast. (WSJ, 09.04.24, ISW, 09.03.24)
• On Sept. 4, Ukraine said Russia launched a combined aerial strike at Lviv, in a rare attack on the western city, killing five people including a junior and injuring at least 35, Ukrainian officials said. (Bloomberg, 09.04.24)
• On Sept. 4, a Ukrainian attack on an open-air market in the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk killed three people and injured five others. (MT/AFP, 09.04.24)
• A Sept. 5 assessment by  Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT said the Ukrainian armed forces had regained positions in New York, Nelipivka, and near Lyptsi while Russian forces advanced near Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, Hirnyk, in Kalynivka, Lisivka, and Halytsynivka. (RM, 09.05.24)
• On Sept. 5, Putin said his main aim in Ukraine after 30 months of fighting was to capture the eastern Donbas area — and claimed that Ukraine's Kursk counter-offensive had made that easier. Putin claimed that the situation in Russia’s Kursk region has stabilized and that the Russian army has begun pushing Ukrainian forces out of the area. (NYT, 09.05.24, FT, 09.05.24, MT/AFP, 09.05.24)
  • As of Sept. 5, the Russian military command continued to prioritize the offensive effort on Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, according to ISW. (RM, 09.05.24)
• On Sept. 6, Syrskyi said that the advance of the Russian army near Pokrovsk has stopped in recent days. “Over the last six days, the enemy hasn’t advanced a single meter in the Pokrovsk direction. In other words, our strategy is working,” he said. (RBC.ua, 09.06.24)
• Speaking on Sept. 6 at a meeting of the Ramstein Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Zelenskyy said that during the first month of the Ukrainian Armed Forces operation in Russia's Kursk region, Russia had lost approximately 6,000 soldiers killed and wounded. "We have turned the tables and are pushing the war into Russia through our counteroffensive. Today, we control an area of more than 1,300 square kilometers in the Kursk region. This includes one hundred settlements," he added. (RBC.ua, 09.06.24)
• On Sept. 6, at least five people were wounded in Russian drone and missile attacks across Ukraine, Kyiv said, adding that the air defenses shot down 27 out of 44 Russian drones launched overnight. (RFE/RL, 09.06.24)
• On Sept. 6, Russian missile strikes on the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad killed at least one person and injured more than 50 others, including three children, authorities said. (MT/AFP, 09.06.24)
• Independent Russian media outlet Mediazona said more than 66,000 Russian military personnel have been identified as killed during the war in Ukraine according to its and BBC’s estimates. (MT/AFP, 08.31.24)
• The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine has increased in August 2024 to 1,187 per day, according to a claim by the Ukrainian General Staff reported by UKMOD.( RM, 09.05.24)
• Since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russian schoolchildren have increasingly found themselves behind bars on charges of sabotage for allegedly damaging buildings or transportation infrastructure. At least 20 Russians between the ages of 15 and 17 are currently in prison awaiting trial or serving sentences for these offenses. (Meduza, 09.06.24)
• A new poll carried out by SSRS in the U.S. on July 26-Aug. 1 found that that 30% of respondents said Russia is failing in its war against Ukraine, compared to 37% in October, and 21% said Ukraine is succeeding, compared to 26% in October. (Brookings, 08.26.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski has claimed that Poland and other countries bordering Ukraine have a “duty” to shoot down Russian missiles before they enter their airspace despite the opposition of NATO whose outgoing chief Jens Stoltenberg has earlier rejected a Polish-Ukrainian proposal to consider intercepting in Ukraine’s airspace missiles and UAVs fired in the direction of territory of Poland. “Warsaw had an obligation to ensure the safety of its citizens irrespective of fears that interceptions over Ukrainian territory could embroil the Atlantic alliance in the war,” according to Sikorski’s interview to FT.  According to Stoltenberg’s July remarks, however, such interception would risk the alliance “becoming part of the conflict.” Some western officials say such a policy would blur red lines over western intervention and possibly prompt Russian retaliation. (FT, 09.02.24, RM, 09.06.24) 
• The U.S. is close to an agreement to give Ukraine long-range cruise missiles that could reach deep into Russia, but Kyiv would need to wait several months as the U.S. works through technical issues ahead of any shipment, U.S. officials said. The JASSM missile could enable Ukraine to hit targets about 300 km inside Russia, including at least 30 airbases, some of which Russia has used to launch attacks There is also a longer-range JASSM missile that can fly more than 500 miles. (Reuters, 09.03.24)
  • It has recently emerged that the Biden administration has stopped Britain and France from allowing Ukraine to use the Storm Shadow/SCALP weapons they have provided outside Ukrainian territory. It has been able to do this because the cruise missile contains some American components. (The Economist, 09.02.24)
• The Biden administration has rejected a military proposal to send American contractors to Ukraine to maintain Western military equipment, including F-16 jet fighters, over concerns about safety, U.S. officials say. (WSJ, 08.30.24)
  • By the time Ukraine had possession of the F-16s, many of Ukraine’s best pilots were already dead, according to WSJ. Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee of the Verkhovna Rada Mariana Bezugla said the F-16 of Ukrainian pilot Oleksiy “Moonfish” Mes—who was shot down on Aug. 26—was probably downed by a Patriot missile system due to lack of coordination, Ukraine’s UNN media outlet reported. Her claim has not yet been officially confirmed by Ukraine’s General Staff or the Ministry of Defense. (RM, 09.01.24)
  • The fatal crash of a Ukrainian F-16 on the first day the jet fighters were used in combat last week has raised questions about the rush to train pilots and deploy them into combat only weeks after they had arrived in Ukraine, according to U.S. and Western officials. Ukraine’s air force still hasn’t determined the cause of the crash There aren’t plans yet to adjust the current training program for Ukrainian pilots, but “the crash shows what happens when you try to rush things,” said one senior defense official. (WSJ, 09.05.24)
  • Zelenskyy will soon have a last chance to convince U.S. President Joe Biden to adopt a new approach to military aid before he leaves office, when the two meet next week in New York, on the fringes of the annual U.N. General Assembly. (The Economist, 09.02.24)
• On Sept. 5 the U.S. Defense Department said lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to carry out strikes deep inside Russia would have “very little strategic value” because the country’s military has already moved almost all of its armaments out of range. The U.S. assesses that 90% of Russian aircraft that launch glide bombs and fire missiles against Ukraine are now in airfields that are about 300 kilometers (186 miles) away from Ukrainian-controlled territory, putting them out of reach for U.S. long-range ATACM missiles, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said on Sept. 5. (Bloomberg, 09.05.24)
  • Also on Sept. 5, John Kirby, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, told reporters ahead of the meeting in Germany that administration policy has not changed. "We are, as we have been every day … having a conversation with our Ukrainian counterparts about what they need, what's going on the battlefield, and what support they require to continue to have success," he said. (WP, 09.06.24)
• On Sept. 6, the US announced a new, $250 million-worth security aid package for Ukraine on Friday. The package includes RIM-7 missiles and support for air defense, ammunition for M142 HIMARS/M270 MLRS, 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, Bradley IFVs, M113 APCs and more. (X-Status-6, 09.06.24)
• On Sept. 6, Zelenskyy urged Washington to permit his forces to use U.S. weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory. Zelenskyy made the plea in a meeting with Western defense ministers in Germany, underscoring his determination to shift policies in many countries that have barred Kyiv from using their weapons to strike Russia. His visit to Ramstein marked his first time joining the meeting at the air base in person. “We need to have this long-range capability, not only on the divided territory of Ukraine, but also on the Russian territory so that Russia is motivated to seek peace,” he said at the start of a meeting of the Ukraine contact group at Ramstein air base in Germany. (FT, 09.06.24)
  • While at Ramstein on Sept. 6, Zelenskyy held talks with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. One of the topics of discussion was permission to strike Russia with American weapons. The head of state thanked the United States for its clear position on the issue of continuing to provide Ukraine with all necessary military support and for its leadership in the Rammstein format. Zelenskyy also thanked Biden for the announced $250 million military aid package for Ukraine. The parties discussed what it would include. (RBC.ua, 09.06.24)
  • Austin said on September 6 that no single military weapon will be decisive for Ukraine to defeat Russia's full-scale invasion and that the use of donated U.S. weapons for long-range strikes into Russia would not turn the tide of the war in Ukraine's favor. Speaking after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Austin told reporters that Russia had moved its glide bombs back to positions beyond the range of U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). (RFE/RL, 09.06.24)
  • Instead of changing policy on deeper strikes inside Russia, U.S. officials have said Ukraine should prioritize using Western weapons to defend its eastern and northern regions, retaining access to the Black Sea and holding Crimea at risk. (FT, 09.06.24)
• Speaker of the Parliament of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk met with speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Mike Johnson. One of the topics of discussion was Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, reported Stefanchuk on Facebook. (RBC.ua, 09.06.24)
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz took delivery of an IRIS advanced air-defense system for the German armed forces and confirmed orders for five more, as well as an additional 17 units for Ukraine to help repel Russian attacks. (Bloomberg, 09.04.24)
• The Romanian government is in the final stages of donating a Patriot missile system to Ukraine in the midst of Ukraine’s ever-increasing calls for more support from the West. (RFE/RL, 09.05.24)
• The UK is helping Ukraine defend its skies with a new £162m package of 650 Lightweight Multi-role Missiles for air defense, with delivery starting this year. (UKMOD, 09.06.24)
• Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky has insisted Ukraine has a right to defend itself, including through attacks on Russian territory amid a debate over Western-imposed limits on the use of weaponry, but he acknowledged that Prague’s allies supplying the most sophisticated weapons face “strategic dilemmas.” (RFE/RL, 08.31.24)
• Zelenskyy said on Sept. 3 that he had asked Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step up advocacy among Ukraine's Western partners to allow strikes on military targets deep inside Russia. (RFE/RL, 09.03.24)
• “The quickest way to end this war is to provide weapons to Ukraine,” said Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, in a meeting with Norway’s prime minister in Oslo on Sept. 6. “Putin must realize that he cannot win on the battlefield, but must accept a just and lasting peace.” (FT, 09.06.24)
• A new poll carried out in U.S. by SSRS on July 26-August 1 found that some 48% of all respondents believe that  United States should support Ukraine as long as the conflict lasts, including 37% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats. All these numbers are new highs in four polls since March-April 2023. The poll  found that there was an increase in the overall respondents who said the United States is spending too much (35% compared to 29% in October), and there was a simultaneous increase among those who said it is spending too little (15% compared to 10% in October). The percentage of respondents saying that U.S. support for Ukraine is at the right level has dropped from 28% last October to 24% in July-August (Brookings, 08.26.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Russia has been secretly acquiring sensitive goods in India and explored building facilities in the country to secure components for its war effort, according to Russian state correspondence seen by FT. Moscow’s industry and trade ministry drew up confidential plans in October 2022 to spend about 82 billion rubles ($1 billion at the time) on securing critical electronics through channels hidden from Western governments. The plan, revealed in letters to a shadowy trade promotion body with strong links to the Russian security services, aimed to use “significant reserves” of rupees amassed by Russian banks from booming oil sales to India. It saw India as an alternative market to source crucial goods “previously supplied from unfriendly countries.” (FT, 09.04.24) Russia’s actions in this case are not unexpected. It is doing what states that are under sanctions and constraints always do—searching in every direction and doing so with a considerable degree of imagination and success.
• Moscow has approved the sale of British consumer goods giant Unilever’s Russian subsidiary at a steep discount. According to RBC, Russia’s foreign investment commission approved the sale of Unilever Rus — which employs around 3,000 people — at a price somewhere between 35 billion and 40 billion rubles ($391-447 million). A buyer has been determined but remains unnamed, according to one of RBC’s sources. (MT/AFP, 09.04.24)
• The Kaliningrad Regional Arbitration Court has imposed a preliminary injunction on the sale of shares in the Russian subsidiary of Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) as an interim measure, the banking group reports. The court's decision was made on a claim filed by Rasperia Trading Limited against the Austrian construction group Strabag SE and several other companies. Raiffeisenbank is among the defendants, but is not accused of any violations. “This complicates the process by which RBI seeks to sell its controlling stake in JSC Raiffeisenbank and will inevitably lead to further delays,” the banking group said in a press release. (Meduza, 09.06.24)
• The U.S. Treasury Department warned other countries to be on the lookout for Russian banks that open overseas branches as a way to avoid financial sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. Foreign banks could face U.S. sanctions themselves if they do business with the Russian entities, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said (Bloomberg, 09.04.24)
• Russia’s Central Bank announced Sept. 6 that it will extend limits on foreign cash withdrawals, capping the amount at $10,000 until next spring. (MT/AFP, 09.06.24)
• Russia imported more than $29 million in U.S. dollar and euro banknotes from Rwanda this year, despite Western sanctions on cash imports, the investigative outlet Vyorstka reported on Sept. 2, citing confidential customs data. (MT/AFP, 09.02.24)
• Finland unveiled plans for a full ban on property acquisitions by some foreign nationals as security concerns surfaced over purchases with links to Russia near critical infrastructure. (Bloomberg, 09.02.24)
• In Cyprus, a new type of investment fund was marketed to clients as a way to avoid disclosing their ownership of assets. In one case, these funds were used to obscure the ownership of offshore companies that allegedly held luxury assets linked to powerful Russian banker Andrei Kostin, including two megayachts worth tens of millions. Two megayachts linked to Andrei Kostin were hidden behind secretive investment funds in Cyprus, known as “registered alternative investment funds.” (OCCRP, September 2024)
• A logistics company from Uzbekistan helped ship $36.6 million worth of artwork from Europe to Russia, bypassing EU sanctions on luxury goods, according to a new report by the investigative outlet Systema. The company, Bek Broker, which mainly transported goods from Russia to Uzbekistan before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has reportedly moved $41.6 million in cargo since February 2022. (MT/AFP, 09.05.24)
• 26-year-old Dmitry Loginov, the son of Putin's cousin and recently named Deputy Minister of Defense Anna Tsivileva—who has had U.K. and EU sanctions imposed on her—continued to travel around Europe after the war in Ukraine began, Sirena found out based on data from the FSB Border Service leak. On July 1, 2022, Loginov flew to Istanbul, and returned to Russia only a month later by car through Finland. In January 2023, he flew to Turkey again, and arrived in March through the border with the EU, this time with Estonia. Less than a month later, Loginov went to Europe again, this time by bus through Tallinn. (Istories, 09.02.24)
• Popular Russian YouTubers have experienced noticeable drops in view counts over the past month, with some losing as much as 80% of their audience on the platform amid what appears to be government attempts to throttle YouTube, the Vedomosti business newspaper reported Sept. 4. (MT/AFP, 09.05.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Putin said he hadn't given up on peace negotiations with Ukraine, in comments apparently aimed at the West ahead of a U.S. visit by Zelenskyy to try to elicit more military backing. Putin's pronouncement Sept. 5 represented an about-face for the Kremlin, which had dismissed the idea of peace talks in the immediate aftermath of Ukraine's invasion of Russian territory. The Russian president said his country was willing to pick up talks—moribund for the past two years—toward a peace settlement, but only along lines long dismissed by Ukraine as unworkable. (WSJ 09.05.24)
  • Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, said Ukraine is looking to use Kursk territory for negotiations after “recognizing they’re not going to get back most of their land” through a counteroffensive. But “there’s no way Putin’s going to do a 1,000-to-1 trade,” he said, noting the discrepancies between Russian-held land in Ukraine and the Kursk territory held by Kyiv. (The Hill, 09.04.24.)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Ukraine was fully within its rights to launch its surprise offensive into Russia's Kursk border region as an act of self-defense, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told German newspaper Die Welt. (MT/AFP, 08.31.24)
• The FBI on Sept. 6 released a redacted portion of a 2019 report that was one of the first to argue that the mysterious ailments known as Havana syndrome were likely not the result of hostile action, and instead were the result of “social contagion.” (NYT, 08.31.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Putin said Sept. 4 that he expects Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend next month's BRICS summit in the Tatarstan capital of Kazan, which will take place Oct. 22-24. Russia will be the first BRICS member to host a summit following the group's enlargement, Putin said at a meeting with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. (MT/AFP, 09.04.24, RFE/RL, 09.04.24)
• “The People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation are allies [soyzniki]  in every sense of the word,” Vladimir Putin told schoolchildren during a visit to a school in the capital of Russia’s Tuva region on Sept. 2. Russia should work with “our main partners and allies, including such a large and promising country… as the People's Republic of China,” he said during a stopover to Mongolia.  (RM, 09.03.24)
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Sept. 6 called on China to stop supporting Russia's war in Ukraine and said Beijing's assistance has been a significant factor in the continuation of the war. "China has become a decisive enabler of Russia's war against Ukraine," Stoltenberg told reporters in Oslo. "China is the one that enables production of many of the weapons that Russia uses." (Reuters, 09.06.24)
• Russian companies have been able to purchase spare parts for outdated microchip-making machines produced by Dutch tech giant ASML through Chinese intermediaries since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Dutch daily Trouw reported Sept. 4, citing Russian customs data. (MT/AFP, 09.05.24)
• A joint Russian-Chinese coal project in Siberia is facing difficulties with financing due to Western secondary sanctions on cross-border payments to Russia, CEO of Russian metals and renewables giant En+ Vladimir Kolmogorov said Sept. 5. The Zashulansky coal deposit, the largest in Russia’s Zabaikalsky region, is being developed by Razrezugol, a joint venture established between En+ and China Energy Investment Corporation (CHN Energy) on a parity basis. (MT/AFP, 09.05.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Russia and Belarus are to sign a treaty on security guarantees and nuclear weapons in December 2024, according to Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov. "We plan to sign an interstate treaty with Russia on security guarantees for the two countries, which will lay down the principle of using nuclear weapons and conventional weapons, as well as other methods of protecting both countries that are part of the Union State," Ryzhenkov said. (Kommersant, 09.02.24) It'd be interesting to see whether and how the “the principle of using nuclear weapons” in the treaty will differ from conditions for use of nuclear weapons outlined in Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine and 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence. These differences (if any) may help to foresee what revisions of conditions for such use in Russian strategic documents, which Ryabkov and other Russian officials say is underway, will end up looking like. 
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Sept. 1 that Russia will amend its nuclear doctrine based on an analysis of recent conflicts and the actions of the West in connection with the special military operation (SVO). "As has been repeatedly stated on our part, the work is in an advanced stage, and there is a clear directive to make corrections, which are partly due to the study and analysis of the experience of conflicts in recent years, including, of course, everything related to the escalatory course of our Western adversaries in connection with the SVO," said Ryabkov. He explained that the process of finalizing the relevant document is currently underway, but it is too early to talk about specific completion dates. (TASS, 09.01.24)
  • In an earlier interview, Ryabkov said the situation surrounding the special military operation has shown that it is necessary to make conceptual additions and adjustments to the nuclear doctrine. "Some conceptual additions and adjustments are needed. That is why the President of the Russian Federation said that the doctrine is a 'living instrument.' I fully allow that, after some time, there will be some clarification on what our approaches might be to these extremely important and very responsible issues in situations of further escalation by our adversaries," the diplomat told Mezhdunarodnya Zhizn. (RM, 09.01.24)
• Russian arms control expert Alexey Arbatov wrote: “For the first time in Russian history ... prominent figures [in Russia] ... are openly advocating the preventive use of nuclear weapons to ensure the success of the special military operation in Ukraine ... Even amid violent conflicts between states, arms control has a certain stabilizing effect on the confrontation. It is worth noting that despite the severity of the Ukrainian crisis and the widespread discussion of a possible nuclear escalation in Russia and abroad, U.S. and Russian strategic forces are left out of this discourse.” (Polis.Political Studies/RIAC, 08.28.24)
• Two U.S. researchers claim to have identified a new potential deployment site of Russia's nuclear-armed cruise missile Burevestnik, Reuters reported Sept. 2. Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the CNA research and analysis organization, and Jeffery Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey said they identified a construction project near a nuclear warhead storage facility 475 kilometers north of Moscow as Burevestnik's possible new deployment site. (MT/AFP, 09.02.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Local residents in the city of Beslan in Russia's North Caucasus region of North Ossetia on Sept. 1 marched in the yard of School No. 1, holding portraits of loved ones they lost 20 years ago in a massacre that unfolded after Chechen and Ingush Islamic extremists seized the elementary school and took more than 1,200 people hostage. (RFE/RL, 09.02.24)
  • A Sept. 2 Levada Center poll of Russian attitudes on the 20^th anniversary of the hostage taking and terrorist attack on a school in Beslan shows that [in the last] 13 years, the share of Russians believing that [in 2004] the authorities did everything possible to save the hostages in the Beslan school has increased: whereas 49% of the respondents said this in 2011, by August 2024 it reached 67%. (Levada, 09.02.24)
• A court in Russia in early August sentenced Madina Bondarenko, the Ossetian wife of a notorious recruiter for the Islamic State extremist group in Tajikistan, to 11 years in prison on a charge of being a member of a terrorist group. She is the wife of Parviz Saidrahmonov (aka Abu Dovud), who was sentenced to 21 years in prison in November on terrorism charges in Dushanbe. (RFE/RL, 09.04.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• A grand jury in the U.S. state of Maryland has charged six Russians, including five who are officers in Russia's military intelligence agency (GRU), with conspiracy to hack into computer systems and conspiracy to commit wire fraud. The indictment, unsealed on Sept. 5, alleges that the Russians conspired to hack into computer systems associated with the Ukrainian government in advance of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Their original targets included Ukrainian government systems and data with no military or defense-related roles and later included computer systems in countries around the world that were providing support to Ukraine, including in the United States, the U.S. Justice Department said in a news release. They also targeted protected computer systems associated with 26 NATO countries, as well as a U.S. government agency located in Maryland. (RFE/RL, 09.05.24, WP, 09.05.24)
• The Russian military spy unit responsible for foreign assassinations is also leading cyber hacks against governments, financial services companies and critical infrastructure across the world, western intelligence agencies warned on Sept. 5 Unit 29155 of Russia’s GRU military intelligence, which the U.K. believes was responsible for the attempted murder of double agent Sergei Skripal in England in 2018, has “expanded its tradecraft to include offensive cyber operations,” Britain’s National Cyber Security Center said.  (FT, 09.06.24)
• Telegram founder and Chief Executive Pavel Durov denied that the messaging app refused to cooperate with European authorities to counter illegal content and said it removes millions of posts every day, his first public comments since French authorities arrested and charged him with complicity in spreading illicit content on the platform. In a post on the app, Durov acknowledged that Telegram's sharp increase in users—now around 950 million—has made it easier for criminals to abuse the platform. (WSJ, 09.06.24)
  • Putin told the Eastern Economic Forum on Sept. 5: “I met Mr. Durov in Moscow once many years ago, he was simply talking about his plans – I regularly meet with businesspeople, and he was at one of those meetings as well... the actions of the authorities are not entirely clear to me, as they seem selective. I am referring to the authorities in France.” (Kremlin.ru, 09.05.24)
  • Durov launched Telegram in 2013. According to him, for several years he independently financed the project, but by 2017 it became obvious that the messenger did not have enough funds to buy servers and develop. Durov then raised $1.8 billion from various funds and individuals from around the world. Many of them were somehow connected to Russia: for example, among the investors were structures of Roman Abramovich, former minister Mikhail Abyzov, businessman Said Gutseriev and even former Wirecard top manager Jan Marsalek. (Istories, 09.06.24)
  • The inquest against Durov had its origins in a covert operation, in which an undercover agent using a pseudonym engaged with a suspected sexual predator on Telegram. (Politico, 09.05.24)
• The White House wants to use the federal government's buying power to speed the adoption of security controls at the heart of the global internet, a yearslong ambition for computer engineers and one in which the U.S. has lagged behind other countries. A road map published Sept. 3 would see the government address decades-old vulnerabilities in the internet's core function known as border gateway protocols. They allow the roughly 74,000 networks making up the web to route traffic. (WSJ, 09.03.24)
• The White House urged Google, Microsoft and other major U.S. tech companies to increase access to state-funded software that helps Russians bypass online censorship, Reuters reported Sept. 5. (MT, 09.05.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Sept. 5 after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding that it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed. (Reuters, 09.05.24)
• Russia is ready to extend its gas transit contract through Ukraine, otherwise set to expire at the end of 2024, Putin said at an economic forum in Vladivostok. “We are not refusing this transit, strangely enough. Both we and Gazprom intend to fulfil all our obligations to our clients with whom we have long-term contracts . . . But if Ukraine refuses this transit, well, we can’t force them,” Putin said. (FT, 09.05.24)
• Gazprom is postponing several major offshore exploration projects in the Arctics. In the Kara  Sea, where Gazprom holds 11 licenses, exploratory well drilling at the Leningradskoye and Obruchevsky sites has been pushed back by four years, from 2029-2031 to 2033-2035, and from 2029-2032 to 2033-2036, respectively. Drilling at the Nevsky site is now scheduled for 2036 instead of 2032, while the Morskoy site has been removed from the plan entirely. In the Barents Sea, where Gazprom holds seven licenses, work at the Medvezhyye and Fersmanovsky sites — where the company planned to drill three exploratory wells — has also been postponed by four years, from 2031-2032 to 2035-2036. (MT/AFP, 09.04.24)
• The U.S. has sanctioned two more vessels along with two related shipping companies in its latest effort to block Russian liquefied natural gas exports from the Arctic. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control on Sept. 5 added vessels Mulan and New Energy to its sanctioned list, following seven vessels first placed under sanctions in late August. India-based companies Gotik Shipping Co. and Plio Energy Cargo Shipping Opc were also sanctioned, according to the Treasury Department’s statement Sept. 5. (Bloomberg, 09.05.24)
• Russian supplies made up around 47% of Hungary’s gas imports in 2023. For Slovakia they made up 89%. Austria depended even more: in January 97% of its gas imports were from Russia. (The Economist, 09.05.24.)
• Azerbaijan is in talks to expand exports of natural gas to at least three more countries in Europe. The Caspian Sea nation is in negotiations with potential new buyers, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy, without naming the countries. Azerbaijan already supplies gas to eight nations in Europe and has an agreement with the region to double exports by 2027. Aliyev also confirmed that Moscow and Kyiv have approached him to facilitate the transit of gas through Ukraine to Europe when a key agreement ends in December. (Bloomberg, 09.06.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The Biden administration accused Putin of orchestrating a covert campaign to influence the coming U.S. presidential election and erode international support for Ukraine. The influence campaign, which American spy agencies have concluded is aiming to Donald Trump reclaim the White House, involved Putin's inner circle and included a scheme to surreptitiously bankroll an American media startup and direct Russian public-relations companies to promote state-sponsored narratives to influence the presidential race. Federal authorities are seizing 32 internet domains for violating money laundering and criminal trademark laws. (FT, 09.05.24, WSJ, 09.05.24)
  • Since arriving at the Kremlin, Sergei Kiriyenko's job has been to make sure the Russian people see only what Vladimir Putin wants them to see. Now U.S. prosecutors say he is trying to do the same for Americans. On Sept. 4, the U.S. Justice Department named Kiriyenko as the curator of some 30 internet domains that were being used by the Russian government to spread false information. (WSJ, 09.06.24)
  • The United States indicted two employees of Russia's RT and imposed sanctions on top editors of the state-funded news outlet on Sept. 4, accusing them of seeking to influence the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The 10 individuals and two entities sanctioned by the Treasury Department include RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan and deputy Elizaveta Brodskaia. The indictments on Sept. 4 charged two Russian employees of RT, Kostiantyn Kalashnikov and Elena Afanasyeva, with conspiracy to violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act. They are accused of spending $10 million to secretly pay the unnamed Tennessee company to spread nearly 2,000 English-language videos on YouTube, TikTok, Instagram and X. (MT/AFP, 09.04.24, NYT, 09.04.24)
    • On Sept. 5, the Kremlin denied attempts to influence the American election after the U.S. Justice Department indicted two employees of state-owned RT network. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the indictments as "nonsense." He accused the United States of repressing journalists to quash a "truth" that it did not like. On Sept. 6 the Kremlin said Moscow will impose restrictions on American media outlets in response to new U.S. sanctions on the state-funded RT news network. (MT/AFP, 09.06.24, WP, 09.05.24)
• On Sept. 5, Putin claimed to be supporting Vice President Kamala Harris in the race — despite the revelations from one of the indictments and a related set of charges that linked Russia's efforts to supporting the Republican Party in the election. "We had Biden as a favorite, but he was dropped from the race. He recommended that all his supporters should back Harris, so we will, too," Putin said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, in Russia's Far East. Harris "has such an infectious laugh that it says she's doing well," Putin said, adding that as a result she might refrain from sanctioning Russia. (WP, 09.05.24)
• National Security Council spokesman John Kirby responded by saying Putin "shouldn't be favoring anybody one way or another." Kirby added that the only people who should determine who the next president is are the American people, adding, "We would greatly appreciate it if Mr. Putin would...stop talking about our election, and...stop interfering in it." (RFE/RL, 09.05.24)
• Trump played up Putin jokingly endorsing his Democratic opponent Harris, during a campaign stop on Sept. 5. “I don’t know if I’m insulted or he did me a favor," Trump said of Putin while outlining economic proposals to a group of New York City and Wall Street officials. (US Today 09/.05.24)
• The view that has crystallized in Moscow, according to five people familiar with the latest thinking in the Kremlin, is that there really isn’t much reason to raise a glass if Trump returns to the White House. (Bloomberg, 09.06.24)
• The Justice Department indicted an American commentator for Russian television on Sept. 5, part of a broader effort by the U.S. government to crack down on Russia’s attempts to influence American politics. Dmitri K. Simes, who was an adviser to Trump’s first presidential campaign, and his wife, Anastasia Simes, were charged with violating U.S. sanctions for their work for Channel One Russia, a state-owned television station. Ms. Simes was also charged with money laundering and with helping a Russian oligarch, Aleksandr Udodov, evade U.S. sanctions. (NYT, 09.05.24)
• The head of Russia’s Far East republic of Sakha (Yakutia) Aysen Nikolaev has called on state employees to “not be ashamed” of studying at American universities, calling it an opportunity to “learn from the enemy” to improve things at home. (MT/AFP, 09.03.24)
• A new poll carried out by SSRS on July 26-Aug. 1 found that 62% of respondents express more sympathy with Ukraine than Russia, including 58% of Republicans and 76% of Democrats. At the same time, just 2% of respondents said they sympathized more with Russia in the conflict, including 4% of Republicans and 1% of Democrats. (Brookings, 08.26.24) 

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s budget deficit shrank as strong economic growth boosted revenue to help cover increased Kremlin spending driven by the war in Ukraine. The deficit declined to just 331 billion rubles ($3.7 billion) or 0.2% of gross domestic product for the first eight months of the year. Russia recorded a budget surplus of 767 billion rubles ($8.5 billion) in August, thanks to almost 1 trillion rubles of increased revenue from non oil-and-gas sectors compared to July. Total budget spending in the eight months through August amounted to 23.4 trillion rubles, up 22% on the same period last year, the Finance Ministry data showed. Russia’s income increased by 36% compared to the same period in 2023. (Bloomberg, 09.06.24)
• Russia’s manufacturing sector saw its slowest pace of growth in more than a year in August, a business survey published on Sept. 2 showed. S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Russian manufacturing fell to 52.1 last month compared to 53.6 in July. A PMI value above 50 points indicates growth, whereas anything below signifies a decline. (MT/AFP, 09.02.24)
• The Russian government’s revenues from taxes on oil and gas surged by a fifth in August from a year ago following soaring prices of the nation’s crude and higher gas flows to foreign markets. The levies brought in 778.6 billion rubles ($8.7 billion) last month, up by 21% from a year ago, the Finance Ministry said Sept. 4. Taxes on crude and petroleum products accounted for almost 80% of total hydrocarbon revenues, according to Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 09.04.24)
• Russia’s weekly inflation entered negative territory for the first time since February last year after the central bank raised its key rate to 18% in late July. Consumer prices in the week through Sept. 2 fell 0.02%, according to data from the Federal Statistics Service released Sept. 4. (Bloomberg, 09.04.24)
• Russians are voting for governors and regional legislators in 83 regions and cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, but many opposition candidates barred by the electoral authorities won't be on the ballot. Governors will be elected in 21 regions, while four regions, including the illegally annexed Crimea in Ukraine, will elect regional parliaments. In some regions, elections that began on Sept. 6 will last for three days. (RFE/RL, 09.06.24)
• Ivan Zhdanov, an exiled associate of Aleksei Navalny, on Sept. 3 posted an official letter by prosecutors in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Region that said they have canceled a decision by investigators in August against launching a probe into the late Russian opposition politician's death. (RFE/RL, 09.03.24)
• Russian law enforcement authorities pressed criminal charges against exiled singer Monetochka for breaking the country’s law on “foreign agents,” Moscow’s Prosectuor’s Office announced Sept. 6. (MT/AFP, 09.06.24)
• The Russian Interior Ministry on Sept. 5 added self-exiled military observer Yan Matveyev to its wanted list on unspecified charges. (RFE/RL, 09.06.24)
• The Russian Minister of Justice, Konstantin Chuychenko, announced that a quarter of all individuals previously included in the "foreign agents" registry have been removed. According to TASS, the minister made this statement during a meeting of the ministry's board on Sept. 3. "As of today, 209 individuals have been removed from the foreign agents registry, which accounts for about 25% of the total number of individuals previously listed. Of these, 71 were removed based on personal requests," the minister said. (Meduza, 09.02.24)
• A person working in one of the presidential residences told the Dossier Center about the existence of Putin's two sons and details of their lives. The published information was confirmed by FBK investigator Georgy Alburov, who worked on this topic based on open data. The eldest son, Ivan, was born in 2015 in Switzerland. The youngest, Vladimir, was born in 2019 in Moscow. This was previously reported by the Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung. (Istories, 09.04.24)
• When asked by Levada in August what worries them most with multiple answers allowed, 52% of Russians said they are worried by the increase in prices, while 33% said they are worried by corruption, and another 33% said they are worried by surge in inbound migration. Some 32% said they are most worried about the war with Ukraine, conflict with the West and sanctions. (Levada, 09.05.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that about 190,000 men have signed contracts to join the military this year. (RFE/RL, 09.02.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian authorities detained Leningrad Military District (LMD) Deputy Commander Major General Valery Mumindzhanov on corruption charges on Sept. 2. (ISW, 09.02.24)
• A former deputy minister of Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry was charged over the alleged theft of an apartment, federal investigators said Sept. 5. Russia’s Investigative Committee, which probes major crimes, said Pavel Baryshev used fraudulent documents between 2017 and 2019 to acquire a three-bedroom apartment in the Moscow area valued at 20 million rubles ($223,700). (MT/AFP, 09.05.24)
• A Moscow court on Sept. 5 sent three officers of a notorious immigration center in Sakharovo, near Moscow, to pretrial detention for at least two months on corruption charges. Abdulgazip Mustapayev, Olga Adakina, and Rudik Teknedzhyan were charged with fraud. Investigators say the trio extorted money from migrants awaiting deportation, promising expedited trips to their homelands. (RFE/RL, 09.05.24)
• A criminal case was opened against British citizen Magomed Abubakarov, who came to his homeland in Chechnya on business in 2023, and he was sent to a pre-trial detention center. Before that, security forces had been persecuting him for almost a year: they kept him in a basement and demanded that he confess to ties to British intelligence, and during his arrest, they shot him in the leg. Abubakarov told the "Team Against Torture" about this. (Media Zone, 09.02.24)

• A Moscow court sentenced leading Russian hypersonic flight scientist Alexander Shiplyuk to 15 years in a maximum-security prison on charges of treason, the independent news website Mediazona reported Sept. 3. (MT/AFP, 09.03.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia and Mongolia agreed to strengthen economic ties at the end of a controversial visit by President Vladimir Putin in defiance of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Putin held talks with Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa in Ulaanbaatar on Sept. 3, where the two sides oversaw the signing of cooperation agreements covering energy, trade and transport as well as projects to expand an economic corridor between Russia, Mongolia and China. “Mongolia stands for the development and expansion of cooperation with its eternal neighbor, the Russian Federation,” Khurelsukh said. Putin’s visit “is of great importance for enriching friendly relations,” he said. Putin invited his Mongolian counterpart to attend the next BRICS summit in Russia next month, the Kremlin said Sept. 3. (MT/AFP, 09.03.24, Bloomberg, 09.03.24)
  • The European Union on Sept. 3 criticized Mongolia for failing to enforce an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit to the country. (RFE/RL, 09.03.24)
  • Ukrainian officials expressed outrage over the Russian leader’s visit to Mongolia. (NYT, 09.03.24)
• Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim praised President Vladimir Putin for steering Russia’s development and pledged to deepen ties, saying there was “enormous potential” to enhance regional trade relations already focused on semiconductors. Anwar, who is on a two-day visit to Russia, said it would be to Malaysia’s benefit if Russia shared its achievements and agreed to “collaborate in all fields of endeavor.” (Bloomberg, 09.05.24)
• Putin met with Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin on Sept. 4 on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai. Putin and Vulin discussed the removal of bilateral trade barriers to reverse declining trade levels, and Vulin stated that Serbia will not impose sanctions on Russia and will not allow its territory to be used for “anti-Russian” actions. (ISW, 09.04.24)
  • Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic says he will not attend a key summit in Russia next month, despite receiving an invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Vucic told reporters on Sept. 5 that he cannot attend the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit on October 22–24. (RFE/RL, 09.05.24)
  • The European Union has told Serbia that maintaining ties with Russia during the ongoing invasion of Ukraine is incompatible with the bloc's values and the EU accession process, highlighting a running dispute between Brussels and the candidate country. (RFE/RL, 09.03.24)
• Turkey has formally asked to join the BRICS group of emerging-market nations as it seeks to bolster its global influence and forge new ties beyond its traditional Western allies, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 09.02.24)
• Israel sought Russia’s help in making progress on a deal to free hostages from Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said, as efforts spearheaded by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt to secure a truce with Hamas advance slowly. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Sept. 2 that his senior military adviser visited Russia to discuss the return of Israeli hostages held by Hamas militants. (Bloomberg, 09.01.24, MT/AFP, 09.02.24)
• Sahra Wagenknecht, renowned for her jeremiads against NATO and capitalism, long stood outside the German political consensus. But her status changed dramatically after Sunday’s elections in Saxony and Thuringia that delivered huge gains for the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). As the center right puzzles over how to form governments without the AfD, Wagenknecht has suddenly become its indispensable partner, and a linchpin of any potential coalition in both east German states. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), “operates as an extension of the Kremlin,” said the CDU MP Roderich Kiesewetter, and demanded the party rule out any co-operation with Wagenknecht’s group. (FT, 09.04.24)
• Hungary on Sept. 4 dismissed as "political hysteria" fears that its new work and residency permit scheme for Russian and Belarusian nationals heightened the risk of spying in the European Union. (MT/AFP, 09.04.24)
• A Moscow court on Sept. 3 extended the detention of a French researcher accused of gathering information about the Russian military and violating the country's laws on "foreign agents." Laurent Vinatier, who worked for a Swiss conflict mediation NGO before he was arrested in Moscow in June, faces up to five years in prison if convicted of the charges against him. (MT/AFP, 09.03.24)
• A sanctioned central banker is to represent Russia on the board of the Washington-based International Monetary Fund, the current holder of the post said on Sept. 3. Ksenia Yudaeva is the former first deputy governor at Russia's Central Bank and a current adviser to its Governor Elvira Nabiullina. (MT/AFP, 09.04.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s parliament has appointed a new wartime cabinet after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy carried out the biggest overhaul of his government since Russia’s full-scale invasion almost 31 months ago. The Verkhovna Rada on Sept. 5 dismissed several ministers who tendered resignations and approved nine ministerial candidates put forward by Zelenskyy’s ruling Servant of the People party. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian leader said the changes would bring “a new energy” to his administration. “These steps are related to strengthening our state in various areas,” he said. Zelenskyy’s critics have warned that the cabinet changes are likely to further concentrate power in hands of the president and Andriy Yermak, his influential and controversial head of office. (FT, 09.05.24, NYT, 09.04.24)
  • Dmytro Kuleba was replaced by Andrii Sybiha currently serving as first deputy foreign minister as the new foreign minister.
  • Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna is confirmed to move into the justice portfolio and also take charge of European integration, with her old job snapped up by ex-Justice Minister Denys Maliuska.
  • Outgoing Deputy Prime Minister and Reintegration Minister Iryna Vereshchuk will become Deputy Head at the president’s office. 
  • Oleksandr Kamyshin will trade the position of Strategic Industries Minister for a presidential advisor role.
  • Herman Smetanin, CEO of arms company Ukroboronprom, a major player in the Ukrainian defense industry, will pick up the Strategic Industries ministry. 
  • Ruslan Strilets’ ecology and environment portfolio is tipped to be soon headed up by former Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Grynchuk.
  • Matviy Bidnyi will take over the sports minister portfolio permanently, and Nataliia Kalmykova will now be the minister for war veterans affairs. (EuroNews, 09.05.24)
  • Ukraine’s energy chief has been improperly ousted for “politically motivated” reasons, according to the company’s two foreign directors, in a move that has heightened fears over the country’s besieged electricity grid. Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, who had led Ukrenergo since 2020, was a respected figure in the energy industry whose sudden departure has been sharply criticized by senior MPs and analysts for putting the electricity network’s resilience at risk. Two independent members of Ukrenergo’s supervisory board announced they were resigning in protest over the “politically motivated” decision to remove the head of Ukraine’s power grid operator, saying it endangered relations with European partners. Daniel Dobbeni and Peder Andreasen said that the move to replace Kudrytskyi without proof of mismanagement was made in “violation of the principles of corporate governance.” (Bloomberg, 09.03.24. FT, 09.04.24)
    • Zelensky said more changes were likely to happen within his office and that “certain areas of our foreign and domestic policies will have a slightly different emphasis.” (FT, 09.04.24)
    • In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the reshuffle would not affect the prospects of resuming negotiations with Kyiv. (FT, 09.04.24) For analytical hot takes on the reshuffle, scroll down to the end of this digest.
• Already 82% of housing and communal services facilities throughout Ukraine are ready for the heating season. This was announced by the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal in the Verkhovna Rada. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.06.24)
• Congressional staffers told WP of a campaign by lobbyists to portray Kyiv as anti-Christian to lawmakers on Capitol Hill aimed at undermining military support for Ukraine. A key element of communications between the lobbyists and lawmakers was the suggestion that the lawmakers should make further aid to Ukraine conditional on preserving the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, they told The Post. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, or UOC-MP, has deep historical ties to the Russian Orthodox Church, which many U.S. and Ukrainian officials say has been an instrument of Russian foreign policy. (WP, 09.06.24)
• The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) said on Tuesday it had dismissed its first deputy over a suspected leak case inside the body that spearheads efforts by the European Union candidate nation to tackle graft. The agency provided no further details and did not name the person. Anastasia Radina, the head of the parliamentary anti-corruption committee, said on Facebook the official had been dismissed for putting pressure on a whistleblower who had reported a possible leakage of information. A law enforcement source said in May that the leak had compromised a high-profile investigation into a road-building project involving government money. (Reuters, 09.03.24)

A selection of hot takes on drivers, circumstances and consequences of the cabinet reshuffle in Ukraine:

"Castling instead of renewal. What do the reshuffles in the Ukrainian government mean?" Konstantin Skorkin, CEIP, 09.06.24. Translated from Russian.

• In the absence of elections, reshuffling within the government has become almost the only opportunity for the president to demonstrate at least some kind of changes in power and to uplift the spirit of the Ukrainian society. However, in reality, these reshuffles work towards even greater centralization and monopolization of power.
• This ...reshuffle clearly reflects the main tendencies of Zelensky's rule, which have become even more apparent under martial law: a desire for centralization, formation of a de facto presidential structure of power [to run the country], favoritism, and a belief not in institutions, but rather in individuals, who can be arbitrarily combined at the president's discretion
• The lack of new faces and breakthrough ideas in the president's team is being compensated for by a reshuffling of powers. However, there is no clear plan behind [this]. On the contrary, the most bizarre and contradictory things are being discussed. While there are talks about the need to reduce the number of ministries, there are also proposals to create a new 'Ministry for the Return of Ukrainians,' with vague responsibilities.

“As his popularity fades Volodymyr Zelensky culls his cabinet,” The Economist, 09.04.24.

• Explaining his reshuffle, Mr. Zelensky said the country needed a “new structure.” He will not have missed the massive drop in government popularity registered by polls in recent months. With elections cancelled during the war, this was one of the only levers he could pull.
• Several sources.... describe the changes as a further consolidation of power around Volodymyr Zelensky’s influential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. “They had loyal people around them,” says Yaroslav Zhelezhnyk, an opposition MP. “But they now have even more loyal ones. 

“A cabinet shake-up suggests Zelensky is planning for ‘a new phase of the war,’ analysts say,” Marc Santora and Maria Varenikova, NYT, 09.04.24.

• On Wednesday, the Ukrainian leader said the changes would bring “a new energy” to his administration. “These steps are related to strengthening our state in various areas,” he said. He declined to comment on where some of the ministers who tendered their resignations might end up in the reshuffle.
• While a reshuffle had long been in the works making the move now was a recognition by Mr. Zelensky that “Ukraine has to prepare for a new phase of the war and new phase of diplomacy and he would like to see some new managers for these processes,” said Mykhailo Minakov, a senior adviser on Ukraine for the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute. The reshuffle, Mr. Minakov said, had been in the works for months, first discussed at the beginning of the year and again in the spring.
• “This is Zelensky’s style of work,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst. “When he sees stagnation in the work, he changes people,” he added. “He thinks that new people will be more motivated and will bring new ideas.”
• The reshuffle could see “an increase of [powerful head of the president’s office, Andriy] Yermak’s influence,” said Yevhan Mahda, a Ukrainian political analyst, who added that more authority in the president’s office comes at the expense of the parliament and cabinet ministers, who are subject to parliamentary approval.

“Zelenskyy makes biggest shake-up of Ukraine’s wartime government,” Christopher Miller, FT, 09.04.24:

• Some in Kyiv’s political class said Zelenskyy was continuing to consolidate power. “It is hard to consolidate it any more,” said one government interlocutor in Kyiv. But other political observers noted Zelenskyy’s preference for new faces, with one MP saying the president “simply likes change”.

 “Ukraine’s Zelensky Launches Government Overhaul for Fresh Military, Diplomatic Push,” Jane Lytvynenko, WSJ, 09.04.24:

• Zelensky identified five top priorities for a new government, including improving relations with NATO, advancing Ukraine’s EU membership status and strengthening the country’s growing defense industry through foreign investments.

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus’ Defense Ministry said early Sept. 5 that it destroyed several drones after they violated the country’s airspace overnight. (MT/AFP, 09.05.24)
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said that his country and Armenia have agreed on about 80 percent of a peace treaty. (RFE/RL, 09.06.24)
• Estonia and Latvia commemorated the 30th anniversary of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the two Baltic states with various events on Aug. 31. (RFE/RL, 08.31.24)
• Kyrgyzstan's Foreign Ministry on Sept. 5 warned citizens against traveling to Russia, citing beefed-up security measures and increased document checks by Russian border guards. (RFE/RL, 09.05.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Vladimir Putin told the Eastern Economic Forum on Sept. 5: "The future of our entire country largely depends on how the Far East develops." (Kremlin.ru, 09.05.24)

Footnotes

1. For details of the reshuffle, including individual appointments and dismissals see EuroNews’ Sept. 5 report, or scroll down to the “Ukraine” section of this digest.
2. Zelenskyy’s approval ratings skyrocketed to around 90 percent as Russian missiles began raining down on Ukrainians in 2022. Now his ratings are falling precipitously again, standing at 55 percent, according to polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). (AFP, 08.30.24)
3. For more analytical hot takes on the reshuffle, scroll down to the end of this digest.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Photo by State Emergency Service of Ukraine via AP.