5 Things to Know

1. Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is likely culminating and it is doing  so without achieving “its big aim of distracting Russian forces from their push” toward the key city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s east, the Economist reported, citing Ukrainian military-intelligence sources. That the culmination may be near also follows from Deputy CIA Director David Cohen’s Aug. 28 estimate that “at sort of the height,” the Armed Forces of Ukraine took 300 square miles of Russian territory, but “it’s moved back a little bit.” The tempo of Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk region had slowed and Ukrainian forces were attempting to dig in, ISW reported on Aug. 28, citing Russian bloggers. However, fighting was not all static in the Kursk region. On Aug. 27, chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed that his forces were in control of about 500 square miles in the Kursk region.¹ That would represent an increase of about 17 square miles since Aug. 22, with the rate of territorial gains averaging 2.4 square miles a day in this period. In their turn, Russian forces recaptured the Kursk region village of Korenyovo, according to Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState’s Aug. 29 report.
2. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has come under a “barrage of criticism from soldiers, lawmakers and military analysts over the rapid advances made by the Russian army” in the direction of the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, FT reported. The Pokrovsk area hosts one of two key rail and road junctions in this eastern Ukrainian province and its loss would threaten the entire region’s logistics for Ukraine’s military, according to Frontelligence Insight’s analysis reported by FT. While the Ukrainian leadership had hoped that AFU’s incursion into the Kursk region would distract the Russian army from pushing toward Pokrovsk, the reality is that Russia’s gains near this city “if anything, picked up” since the incursion was launched on Aug. 6, according to NYT. This week has seen AFU pull out of Novohrodivka, less than 5 miles from Pokrovsk, with only one defensive line remaining before reaching the outskirts of Pokrovsk itself, according to Euromaidan Press.
3. Russian authorities have this week restricted access to the city of Kurchatov, where an NPP is located, as fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces continued less than 30 miles away, according to AFP. This proximity and the Kremlin’s claim of an attempt by the Ukrainian side to strike the plant must have played a significant role in shaping IAEA chief Rafel Grossi’s decision to visit the Kursk NPP. If a nuclear reactor of this NPP was hit,² “the consequences could be extremely serious… at the end of the day, again, this may sound common sense and simple: Don't attack a nuclear power plant," Grossi was quoted by AFP as saying after touring the plant. Next week, Grossi is to visit Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia plant, where in his view “the nuclear safety and security situation… remains extremely challenging,” WNN reported.
4. The percentage of Russians who favor continuing military action in Ukraine increased from 34% in July to 41% in August, according to the Levada Center. That period also saw the share of those who favor launching peace talks decrease from 58% in July to 50% in August, according to this independent pollster. Russia’s recent gains in the Donetsk region coupled with Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region may have played a role in increase in the share of hawks among members of the Russian public.   
5. Pavel Durov, the Russian-born entrepreneur who founded the online communications tool Telegram, has been charged in France with a wide range of crimes for failing to prevent illicit activity on the app, and barred from leaving the country, NYT reported. French law-enforcement procedures with regard to Durov sent alarms ringing in Russia’s pro-war establishment as Telegram is widely used by the Russian military for battlefield communication, according to Politico. “They practically detained the head of communication of the Russian army,” Politico quoted Russian military blogger channel Povernutie na Z Voine as writing about Durov’s 4-day detention in Paris. A number of top Russian officials have decried Durov’s detention, and Russia’s opposition outlet Important Stories reported that the Telegram founder has visited Russia more than 50 times since ‘expulsion’ from Russia in 2014. If accurately reported, Durov’s frequent visits to Russia could not have occurred without the tacit approval of the Russian authorities.*

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:³

• On Aug. 27, an IAEA team headed by Director General Rafael Grossi visited the Kursk NPP and the city of Kurchatov, Rosatom reported. This Russian corporation claimed that during the visit, Grossi saw what Rosatom claimed to be traces of the strikes carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kursk NPP. Grossi said his tour of the Kursk NPP enabled him to "look at the most important parts" of the plant, which is less than 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces. "A nuclear power plant of this type so close to a point of contact or military front is an extremely serious fact," he said. "At the end of the day, again, this may sound common sense and simple: Don't attack a nuclear power plant," Grossi said. If the nuclear reactor was hit, “the consequences could be extremely serious,” he said. (NYT, 08.28.24, RM, 08.27.24, MT/AFP, 08.27.24)
  • Entry into the city of Kurchatov in the Kursk region, where the Kursk NPP is located, has been restricted, Acting Gov. Alexey Smirnov reported in a Telegram channel on Aug. 28. According to him, this was done because "the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not giving up their attempts to enter the city." (Meduza, 08.28.24)
• Next week, Grossi is to visit the Zaporizhzhia NPP for a fifth time, saying "my message has been loud and clear throughout this tragic war: a nuclear accident must be avoided at all costs, and a nuclear power plant must never be attacked." (WNN, 08.30.24, Ukrainska Pravda, 08.30.24)
• Ukraine stated that several power units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants were disconnected from the power grid on Aug. 26, when Russian troops launched a massive attack on Ukraine. This was stated in a letter from the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the IAEA, sent to the agency on Aug. 28. (Meduza, 08.29.24)
• A delegation from the Department of Safeguards of the IAEA, led by its head, Deputy Director General Massimo Aparo, visited Russia from Aug. 26 to 29, according to Rosatom. During the visit, consultations were held with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Deputy Director General of Rosatom Nikolai Spassky, during which they discussed cooperation with the IAEA on safeguards, according to Rosatom. Additionally, two technical tours were organized for the delegation—to the facilities of FSUE “Atomflot” (Murmansk) and the “ZiO-Podolsk” plant of Rosatom's machine-building division. (RM, 08.30.24)
• According to Turkey’s minister of energy and natural resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, the start of operation of the first unit of Akkuyu NPP built by Rosatom might be delayed due to problems with the supply of Siemens equipment from Germany. Changing suppliers takes time, and this may affect the start of operation. (Dmitry Kovchegin’s substack, 08.27.24)
• The world's largest uranium producer is another step closer to building a nuclear power plant. Last week, the Kazakh capital, Astana, hosted the last of 20 public hearings staged around the country ahead of a national referendum in the fall on whether to start producing nuclear power. (RFE/RL, 08.29.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea has sent Russia at least 13,000 shipping containers believed to be carrying arms since mid-2022, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported Aug. 27, citing a military intelligence report submitted to lawmakers in the East Asian nation. According to the report, the containers had the capacity to hold more than 6 million 152-millimeter artillery shells. Military analysts previously said Pyongyang may have also shipped 120mm mortars, 122mm artillery shells and 122mm rockets to Russia. (MT/AFP, 08.28.24)
• North Korea's external economic minister has held talks with Russia's deputy industry and trade minister to discuss ways to further bolster bilateral economic cooperation, state media reported Wednesday. Yun Jong-ho and Roman Chekushov held talks on Tuesday, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said without further elaborating. A Russian delegation, led by Chekushov, arrived in Pyongyang on Monday. Other participants also included Kim Hwa-sik, North Korean vice minister in charge of the chemical industry, the report said. (Yonhap,08.28.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• On Aug. 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that 115 Ukrainian prisoners were released in a swap with Russia. Russia also said it swapped 115 prisoners captured by Ukraine during an almost three-week cross-border incursion in the Kursk region for the same number of detained Ukrainian servicemen. The deal was brokered by the United Arab Emirates. (Bloomberg, 08.24.24, RFE/RL, 08.24.24)
• Ukrainian forces have captured more than 240 Russian soldiers since their surprise invasion of Russia's Kursk region this month, according to an analysis of visual evidence that includes mass detentions of young troops appearing to surrender without resistance. (WP, 08.26.24)
• Ukraine is a beta test for embedding artificial intelligence and other new technologies in drones and robots to find deadly land mines, saving lives and allowing military forces to advance more quickly. Since February 2022, when Russia began its full-scale invasion, Ukraine has surveyed about 13,500 square miles of its territory — roughly the size of the country of Moldova — and has cleared mines from about 1,800 square miles. (NYT, 08.24.24)
• The International Monetary Fund will meet with Ukrainian officials next week to review the war-torn country’s budget outlook and decide whether to disburse the next $1.1 billion from a $15.6 billion aid program. (Bloomberg, 08.28.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• This week, Zelenskyy has come under a barrage of criticism over the rapid advances made by the Russian army in eastern Ukraine since Kyiv launched its bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. It was breach in the frontline in the strategically important Donetsk region this week that has triggered the backlash, with critics arguing Ukraine’s positions were weakened by the redeployment of thousands of battle-hardened Ukrainian troops to the Kursk operation. Russian forces have advanced more rapidly in Donetsk since Aug. 6 compared with the previous months, according to several military analysts, including Deep State. They  are closing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk. (FT, 08.30.24)
• On Aug. 25, Russian forces were reported to have advanced northeast and south of the city of Toretsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region and within Toretsk's eastern outskirts. (ISN, 08.25.24)
• On Aug. 25, Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces recently regained lost positions in Kursk Oblast. A Russian milblogger claimed on Aug. 25 that Russian forces regained lost positions in Komarovka (southwest of Korenevo) and are repelling small Ukrainian attacks in the area. Several Russian milbloggers claimed on Aug. 25 that Russian forces recaptured Olgovka and Kremyanoye (both east of Korenevo) and that Russian forces are advancing west of Kremyanoye. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces still control Kremyanoye, however. (ISN, 08.25.24)
• On Aug. 25, six people were reported to have been killed in Ukrainian attacks in the Russian border region of Belgorod as Ukrainian authorities reported that several people -- including Reuters news agency staffers -- were among the dead and wounded in Russian strikes across the country. (RFE/RL, 08.25.24)
  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed without evidence that Reuters’ security adviser Ryan Evans, who was killed in the strike on the Sapphire Hotel in the city of Kramatorsk, was registered as a former employee of MI6. A Reuters spokesperson said in a statement that the Russian Foreign Ministry was "factually incorrect.” "Ryan was not a former MI6 employee," the person wrote. (WP, 08.29.24)
• On Aug. 26, a Ukrainian F-16 jet fighter was destroyed in a crash while on a mission to shoot down incoming Russian aerial attack vehicles, according to a U.S. official. One person briefed on the F-16 crash said it appeared the aircraft was not downed by enemy fire. The General Staff said in a Facebook post on Aug. 29 that Ukrainian F-16s engaged in an air battle against the Russian barrage and shot down four enemy cruise missiles. The pilot, Oleksiy Mes, was a top Ukrainian airman. Russian pro-war Telegram channel “Fighter-Bomber” claimed the plane was brought down by friendly fire. (Bloomberg, 08.29.24, WSJ, 08.29.24, RM, 08.29.24, RFE/RL, 08.29.24, FT, 08.30.24)
  • On August 30 Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk, according to a decree on the website of the President of Ukraine. The reason for the dismissal is not stated in the decree. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky decided to appoint Anatoliy Krivonozhko as acting commander of the Air Force (Meduza, RBC.ua, 08.30.24)
• On Aug. 26, Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted to strike the Engels Air Base in Saratov Oblast and an oil refinery in Yaroslavl Oblast with drones. (ISW, 08.26.24) The Engels base hosts Russian nuclear capable long-range bombers.
• On Aug. 26, Ukraine said Russia fired more than 100 missiles and nearly as many drones at cities across the country in a massive attack against power infrastructure that caused blackouts and left at least three people dead. Zelenskyy called the strike one of the largest since the Kremlin’s invasion. (Bloomberg, 08.26.24, Bloomberg, 08.26.24, MT/AFP, 08.26.24)⁴
  • U.S. President Joe Biden called the Aug. 26 strikes an “outrageous attack.” “I condemn, in the strongest possible terms, Russia’s continued war against Ukraine and its efforts to plunge the Ukrainian people into darkness,” he said. Biden said he had “reprioritized U.S. air defense exports so they are sent to Ukraine first.” And he added: “The U.S. also is surging energy equipment . . . to repair its systems and strengthen the resilience of Ukraine’s energy grid.” (FT, 08.27.24, NYT, 08.27.24)
• On Aug. 27, Russia launched a fresh wave of pre-dawn missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and several other large Ukrainian cities. Ukraine's air force said it downed half of the 10 missiles and 60 of the 81 Iranian-designed attack drones launched from several regions of Russia and from occupied Crimea. The early-morning barrage killed four people in Kryvyi Rih. Two people were also killed in the city of Zaporizhzhia. (NYT, 08.27.24, MT/AFP, 08.27.24)
• On Aug. 27, Ukrainian forces launched an attack on border posts in the southwestern Belgorod region. The regional governor of Russia’s Belgorod, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said Ukrainian forces had launched 23 drones and dozens of munitions at towns and villages in the area over the past 24 hours. (NYT, 08.27.24, MT/AFP, 08.27.24)
• On Aug. 27, Zelenskyy said: "The Kursk operation brought several things. First of all, the occupation of the Kharkiv region has been stopped. We had information about the creation of a buffer zone in the Kharkiv region, and then in the north, we did not know the specifics, but we understood that Sumy and Chernihiv regions could be in the plans.” Another objective is to divert Russian troops from other fronts, he said. Speaking at a news conference, Zelenskyy said he had no intent to permanently annex the Kursk region. (WP, 08.27.24, RBC.ua, 08.27.24)
• On Aug. 27, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Ukrainian fighters have taken control of 100 settlements in the Russian region. "As of today, 1,294 square kilometers (500 square miles)  and 100 settlements are under our control," he said. He also said that 594 Russian servicemen had been captured as part of the operation. Syrskyi also said Russia has redeployed some of its troops from southern Ukraine to help fight off Kyiv’s incursion into the Kursk region. Russia moved about 30,000 of its troops to the Kursk region, Syrskyi said. (RBC.ua, 08.27.24, Bloomberg, 08.27.24) 
• On Aug. 27, Syrskyi said that Moscow is still keeping its most capable soldiers for its push into the Donetsk region in Ukraine’s east where it seeks to capture the town of Pokrovsk, an important logistics hub for Kyiv’s forces. Pokrovsk is one of two key rail and road junctions in the Donetsk region and its loss would threaten the entire region’s logistics for Ukraine’s military, according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analytical group. (RBC.ua, 08.27.24, Bloomberg, 08.27.24, FT, 08.30.24) For a Ukrainian assessment of the importance of Pokrovsk, see this thread on X.
  • On Aug. 28, the Russian military were reported to have cut off the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove highway, one of the key Ukrainian logistics highways in the Donetsk region. This was reported by Z-war correspondents Yuriy Kotenok and Boris Rozhin. (Istories, 08.29.24)
  • As of Aug. 28, Russia remains more intent on capturing Pokrovsk, and its leaders have been reluctant to pull troops from that front, Western officials and military experts said. In the three weeks since the Kursk invasion, officials say that Russia’s slow but steady gains near Pokrovsk have, if anything, picked up. (NYT, 08.28.24)
  • As of Aug. 28, nearly half of the population of Pokrovsk had left the city, said Vadym Filashkin, the head of the regional military administration. And, in a further sign that the war is coming closer, Filashkin said on Aug. 28 that banks would remain open only until the end of the week. Officials also announced a curfew for Pokrovsk from 3 p.m. to 11 a.m. No reason was given for the decision. (NYT, 08.28.24)
  • As of Aug. 29, Russian forces were reported to be conducting "two key tactical operations" as part of their offensive to capture Pokrovsk, ISW said. The first is along the Novogrodivka-Hrodivka line east of Pokrovsk with the aim of advancing to the outskirts of the city. The second is along the Selydove-Ukrayinsk-Hirnyk line to the southeast with the aim of "eliminating vulnerabilities to Ukrainian counterattacks." (RFE/RL, 08.30.24)
  • Along with the Russian advance in the direction of Pokrovsk, the enemy’s push into Toretsk is threatening to undermine the defense of the Donetsk region. (NYT, 08.27.24)
  • Ukrainian troops have pulled out of Novohrodivka, less than 5 miles away from Pokrovsk, with only one defensive line remained before reaching the outskirts of Pokrovsk itself, according to Euromaidan Press. “The potential loss of Pokrovsk poses a serious operational threat to the logistics of the entire region, disrupting supply lines from Vuhledar in the south to Horlivka in the north,” Euromaidan Press reports. The strategic importance of Pokrovsk is further compounded by its location near key road junctures, making it a crucial distribution hub for Ukrainian forces. (BNE, 08.30.24, FT, 08.30.24)
• On Aug. 27, Donald Trump appeared to take a stance against the recent Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory near Kursk. The gaining of ground by Ukrainian troops, which analysts have said is meant to relieve pressure for Ukrainian troops elsewhere in the theater of war, Trump argued was actually another sign that “World War 3” was closer than ever. (Independent, 08.27.24)
• On the night of Aug. 27-28, Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against oil infrastructure in Rostov and Kirov oblasts and reportedly conducted a drone strike against Voronezh Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on Aug. 29 that Ukrainian forces struck the Atlas Oil Refinery in Rostov Oblast and the Zenit Oil Depot in Kirov Oblast. (ISW, 08.28.24, ISW, 08.29.24)
• Speaking on Aug. 27, Zelenskyy has renewed pleas for Kyiv’s Western allies to lift restrictions on his forces’ use of weapons against military targets in Russia. Zelenskyy said Ukraine used its new U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets to defend against the Russian missile and drone strikes over the past two days. (FT, 08.27.24)
• On Aug. 28, Ukraine said for the first time that it used U.S.-made F-16 jet fighters to intercept drones and missiles as Russia unleashed attacks across the country, battering infrastructure and eroding the nation's air defenses for a second consecutive day. (WSJ, 08.28.24)
• On Aug. 28, Deputy CIA Director David Cohen said Russian President Vladimir Putin will mount a counteroffensive to try to retake territory in the Kursk region captured by Ukrainian troops, but Russian forces will encounter "a difficult fight.” Cohen estimated that “at sort of the height” the Armed Forces of Ukraine took 300 square miles of Russian territory, but “it’s moved back a little bit.” Cohen said the significance of the Ukrainian incursion remained to be seen. Ukrainian troops are building defensive lines, and it appears that they intend to retain "some of that territory for some period of time," Cohen told the Intelligence and National Security Summit. Putin, he said, "is not only going to have to face the fact that there is a front line now within Russian territory that he's going to have to deal with, he has to deal with reverberations back in his own society that they have lost a piece of Russian territory.” Ukraine's success in Kursk "has the potential to change the dynamic" of the conflict "a little bit going forward.” Cohen said that Russia has been making gains in Ukraine "at extraordinary cost" in troops and equipment and "may or may not" capture the key Ukrainian logistics hub city of Pokrovsk. "But at the end of the day, none of it is a game changer in a strategic sense" for the Russians, he claimed. (Reuters, 08.28.24, C-Span, 08.28.24) Vladimir Putin is the first Russian/Soviet ruler to yield territory to a foreign country’s armed forces for several weeks or more since Stalin.
• On Aug. 28, several Russian milbloggers claimed that the tempo of Ukrainian attacks in Kursk Oblast has slowed and that Ukrainian forces are now attempting to dig in and hold select areas they recently seized. (ISW, 08.28.24)
• On Aug. 28, Russia’s Kirov Region Gov. Alexander Sokolov reported that a drone attacked the city of Kotelnich. "The drone attacked a storage tank for oil products," the head of the region wrote in Telegram. One of the drones hit the roof of the tank, the second hit an empty tank. Soon, the channel reported that two more drones attacked the oil depot. After the strike and explosion, one of the tanks caught fire. (Meduza, 08.28.24)
• On Aug. 28, Russian attacks on eastern Ukraine's partially occupied Donetsk region killed six people, the governor of the region said, as Moscow announced the capture of another village in the area. (MT/AFP, 08.28.24)
• On the night of Aug. 28-29, Moscow launched the third major aerial attack on Ukraine this week—the latest in strikes by the two sides on each other's energy infrastructure, causing electricity cutoffs throughout Ukraine and raising the prospect of a bleak winter for its people. (WP, 08.29.24)
• On Aug. 29, Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState reported on its Telegram channel that the  Russian military has captured the village of Korenyovo (Kursk region) and has also advanced in Mykhailivka, near Panteleimonivka, Pishchane and Andriivka. (RM, 08.30.24)
• Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced north of Sudzha as Russian forces recaptured some areas of Kursk Oblast on Aug. 29. (ISW, 08.29.24)
• On August 30 Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Alexander Syrsky claimed that his forces have advanced up to two kilometers in the past 24 hours in the Kursk region, capturing 5 square km. (Korrespondent.net, 08.30.24)
• On Aug. 30, Russia's military claimed that this week it has captured Novozhelanne, which lies between the cities of Donetsk and Pokrovsk, Synkivka in the Kharkiv region and the small village of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk — which shares its name with a larger city in the region that is under Ukrainian control. (MT/AFP, 08.30.24)
• On Aug. 30, Russian military officials announced that Russian air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 18 Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk, Kaluga, Belgorod regions and the Republic of Crimea. (Interfax, 08.30.24)
• On Aug. 30, Ukraine said at least four people died in a strike on a residential block. Another 28 people were wounded in the attack on the eastern city of Kharkiv, regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said on Telegram. (Bloomberg, 08.30.24)
• Ukrainian military-intelligence sources say they are untroubled by the likely culmination of the Kursk offensive. The operation has already achieved important objectives, says “Detective,” an officer involved in the action. Kursk was a “proof of concept,” he says, demonstrating Ukraine’s continued ability to circumvent Russia’s numerical advantage. But the Kursk operation has failed to achieve its big aim of distracting Russian forces from their push towards Pokrovsk. (The Economist, 08.30.24)
• Ukraine’s daring offensive into Russia has undermined Putin’s regime and proved false his warnings that increased Western support for Kyiv would prompt an escalation in the war, Sweden’s foreign minister Tobias Billström said. (FT, 08.29.24)
• ''Putin has his focus on the Donbas,'' said Gen. Onno Eichelsheim, the chief of the Dutch defense staff, who added that Kursk matters less to the Russian leader, for now. ''He doesn't care that much about this region at this moment.'' ''The aim of the Russian summer offensive is at least to take possession of Pokrovsk,'' said Col. Markus Reisner, who oversees force development at Austria's main military training academy and closely follows the war in Ukraine. (NYT, 08.28.24)
• Ukraine says it has used a new long-range rocket-drone hybrid designed to hit targets deep inside Russia for the first time. Zelenskyy shared a video on X on Aug. 25 from the government-backed United24 platform detailing the "Palianytsia" weapon, which he said made a "successful" combat debut on Aug. 25. (Business Insider, 08.25.24)
• At least 165 graves of Russian soldiers have been uncovered in the Arctic city of Murmansk, a significantly higher death figure than local authorities have publicly acknowledged, opposition activist Violetta Grudina said Aug. 28. Grudina, an exiled former regional coordinator for Alexei Navalny’s now-banned political network, said the graves were found in a separate section of the Murmansk municipal cemetery, with some freshly dug graves still awaiting burials. (MT/AFP, 08.28.24)
• Media Zone identified 172 Russian conscripts killed during Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. (RM, 08.30.24)
• Indonesian authorities have “no information” to confirm earlier reports alleging that their citizens are being recruited to fight in Ukraine, the Southeast Asia country’s embassy in Russia said in a statement sent to the Moscow Times. (MT/AFP, 08.28.24)
• A Moscow court ordered the arrest of two Colombian nationals suspected of fighting for the Ukrainian army against Russia. (Bloomberg, 08.30.24)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• Speaking on Aug. 27, Zelenskyy has argued that to gain the upper hand and be able to dictate the terms of a just end to Russia’s war, Ukraine needs to strike deep behind enemy lines, where it can weaken Moscow’s military capabilities. (FT, 08.27.24)
  • Ukraine has been handed missiles with ranges of up to 300km but told they cannot be used to hit targets in Russia. These include the long-range version of the ground-launched Army Tactical Missile System provided by the U.S. and the U.K.-French-built Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missile, called the Scalp-EG by France, which Paris and London began supplying last year. Kyiv also wants the German-made Taurus, which has a range of 500km, twice that of the Storm Shadow, and a more powerful warhead. But Berlin has so far refused to supply them. Ukraine also wants the right to use its newly arrived F-16 fighter jets to bomb targets in Russia. (FT, 08.27.24)
  • On Aug. 26, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters in Washington that there had been “no changes” to U.S. policy with respect to the weapons restrictions. (FT, 08.27.24)
• The U.K. and France are eager to allow Ukraine to strike military targets deep within Russian territory while the U.S. and Germany are opposed. Multiple reports from Western media indicate that the U.S. government is prohibiting the U.K. from allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets in Russia. (FT, 08.27.24, ISW, 08.28.24)
• On August 30 Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III underscored the United States' enduring commitment to supporting Ukraine as he met with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov at the Pentagon on August 30. Umerov said the meeting would feature detailed discussions about the current situation on the battlefield and Ukraine's "vision, objectives and plans." Austin condemned Russia's assault on Ukraine's critical civilian infrastructure earlier this week and said the U.S. will continue to lead allies and partners in delivering key capabilities to help Ukraine defend itself. (Defense.gov, 08.30.24)
• EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called this week for lifting restrictions on use of Western-supplied arms by Ukraine during a visit to Brussels by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. "The weaponry that we are providing to Ukraine has to have full use, and the restrictions have to be lifted in order for the Ukrainians to be able to target the places where Russia is bombing them. Otherwise, the weaponry is useless," Borrell said. In separate remarks made as he headed into the second day of an informal meeting of the bloc's defense ministers, Borrell said on Aug. 30 that it is "absurd" to say allowing targeting on the territory of Russia means waging war directly against Moscow. "No one wants" a war with Russia, he added. (RFE/RL, 08.30.24, WP, 08.29.24)
• Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans told public broadcaster NOS on Aug. 29 that Ukraine is allowed to use weapons provided by the Netherlands, including F-16 fighter jets, on Russian territory within the confines of international law. (WP, 08.29.24)
• NATO members are stepping up their military aid to Ukraine. “We must continue to provide Ukraine with the equipment and munitions it needs to defend itself against Russia’s invasion. This is vital for Ukraine’s ability to stay in the fight,” they said. (NATO, 08.28.24)
• The European Union’s diplomatic service said it won’t recommend sending instructors into Ukraine to train soldiers at this point, the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag reported. The agency said that there were issues with the mission and that further discussions were needed. (Bloomberg, 08.24.24) 
• Poland will not shoot down Russian drones and missiles over Ukrainian territory and will not train its military on Ukrainian territory, the country's Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Zalevsky said. (Korrespondent.net, 08.30.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• New York's financial regulator imposed a $35 million fine against Nordea Bank over alleged compliance failures at the Nordic bank. The NYDFS said activity at the bank’s Vesterport branch further implicated Nordea in flows of illicit funds with entities connected to the "Russian laundromat" and "Azerbaijani laundromat" involving funds spirited out of Russia and other former Soviet states. (WSJ, 08.28.24)
• Russia is close to starting trials of cryptocurrency exchanges and the use of digital tokens for cross-border transactions to help ease payment difficulties for companies in the country, which has been hit by international sanctions. The trials will start Sept. 1, said two people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named discussing private information. Russia will use the National Payment Card System for swapping between rubles and cryptocurrencies when testing payments and the exchange platform, they said. (Bloomberg, 08.26.24)
• A complex scheme devised by Moscow to swap Russian and Western investors’ frozen assets and return more than $1 billion to ordinary retail shareholders has fallen short of the Kremlin’s expectations, with less than 10% of the original target delivered. (FT, 08.26.24)
• Russia’s Central Bank has revoked the broker and dealer licenses of Goldman Sachs as the U.S. investment bank continues to scale back its presence in the country in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 08.27.24)
• Russia said it has banned 92 people from entering the country Aug. 28, including journalists from U.S. based newspapers The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and the Washington Post. Russia's Foreign Affairs Ministry said the list was in response to the Biden administration's "Russophobic course." (WSJ, 08.28.24)
• The sanctions list, which the U.S. government unveiled on Aug. 23, includes 34 Russians, including the son of Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, Pavel Belousov, according to Russian state agency TASS. (WION, 08.23.24)
• Beijing urged the U.S. to “stop its wrong practices” after Chinese companies were included on a sanctions list that’s designed to target supply chains feeding Russia and hobble its wartime economy. The Asian nation is “firmly opposed” to the sanctions and “will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies,” the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 08.25.24)
• The European Union will press forward with a commitment to secure aid for Ukraine from frozen Russian central bank assets regardless of issues raised by the U.S., the bloc’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said. (Bloomberg, 08.29.24)
  • Ukrainian officials are growing wary over delays in finalizing a deal that would unlock $50 billion in support by harnessing the profits of frozen Russian central bank assets, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 08.24.24)
• Pope Francis on Aug. 25 condemned the latest action by Kyiv to ban religious organizations with ties to the Russian Orthodox Church from operating in Ukraine. "No Christian church may be abolished directly or indirectly. The churches must not be touched," the pope said. (RFE/RL, 08.25.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• On Aug. 27, Zelenskyy said that this month’s lightning-fast incursion into Russia is part of a larger plan to end the war in his country. Speaking at a news conference, Zelenskyy said he will present his peace plan to Biden. Zelenskyy said he wants to discuss the blueprint with Biden during his trip to the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York in September. He also plans to present the plan to U.S. presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump this fall. "The main point … is forcing Russia to end the war," Zelenskyy said. "We really want justice for Ukraine. And if this plan is accepted - and, second, if it is executed - we believe that the main goal will be reached." He declined to provide details of his plan. Zelenskyy said the plan consists of several key elements: the first is actions in the Kursk region, the second is Ukraine's strategic position in the global security infrastructure, the third concerns diplomatic means to force Russia to end the war, and the fourth pertains to the economy. “Everything we do is for the purpose of forcing Russia be ready for fair peace,” Zelenskyy said in separate earlier remarks. (WP, 08.27.24, MSN, 08.27.24, Bloomberg, 08.25.24, Bloomberg, 08.24.24, Bloomberg, 08.27.24)
• On Aug. 30, Zelenskyy was reported to have proposed holding a summit in India aimed at ending the war with Russia. The proposal was put to Narendra Modi during the Indian prime minister’s visit to Ukraine last week. Zelenskyy aims to hold a second leaders meeting before the U.S. presidential election in November as a follow-up to a summit in June, which sought to win support from nations of the Global South for Kyiv in its 2 1/2 year war with Russia. (Bloomberg, 08.30.24)
• Narendra Modi spoke with both Biden and Putin about the war in Ukraine following the Indian prime minister’s conciliatory visit to Kyiv. The White House, in an account of the call, said Biden “commended” Modi for his visits to both Ukraine and Poland, “and for his message of peace and ongoing humanitarian support for Ukraine, including its energy sector.” “The leaders affirmed their continued support for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in accordance with international law, on the basis of the U.N. Charter,” the White House said. Modi said in a post on social media that he had "exchanged perspectives on the Russia-Ukraine conflict" and that he had "reiterated India's firm commitment to support an early, abiding and peaceful resolution of the conflict.” (Bloomberg, 08.26.24, RFE/RL, 08.26.24, MT/AFP, 08.27.24)
• The percentage of Russians who favor continuing military action in Ukraine increased from 34% in July to 41% in August, according to the Levada Center. The share of those who favor the launch of peace talks decreased from 58% in July to 50% in August. The percentage of Russians who are closely following Russian military actions in Ukraine decreased from 20% to 18% between July and August, according to Levada, while the share of those who follow these actions rather closely increased from 31% to 34%. The share of those who pay little attention to Russian military actions in Ukraine or do not follow them at all, also changed. In July, it was 49%, while in August, it was 47%. In addition, the share of who definitely support the actions of the Russian armed forces was 44% in July and 43% in August. (RM, 08.30.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The Polish Army has started a search operation for an unmanned flying object that entered its airspace during Russia’s attack against neighboring Ukraine. The object disappeared from the radars around 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) deep into Polish territory early in the morning, Gen. Maciej Klisz, Operational Commander of the Armed Forces, said in a televised speech. Klisz added that the flying object most likely is an unmanned aerial vehicle from Russia. (Bloomberg, 08.26.24)
• A possible Russian drone flyover last week prompted a NATO military base in western Germany to briefly raise its security level, media in the country reported Aug. 26, citing anonymous security sources. The Western military bloc said it elevated and then lowered the security level at Geilenkirchen Air Base due to an unspecified “potential threat.” NATO has used Geilenkirchen since 1980, serving as a base for its AWACS reconnaissance aircraft. (MT/AFP, 08.26.24)
• On Aug. 30, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for a greater European commitment to security and overcoming past unwillingness to provide for its own defense, repeatedly citing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as evidence the bloc must shed “illusions” and “think about our union as intrinsically a security project. (RFE/RL, 08.30.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russian payments for Chinese goods faced increasing delays and rising costs this past month due to stricter banking compliance in response to U.S. threats of secondary sanctions. Chinese state banks have reportedly halted transactions with Russian companies “en masse,” leaving payments worth billions of yuan in limbo. Despite these disruptions, trade between Russia and China grew by 1.6% to $137 billion in the first half of 2024. However, Russia’s imports from China saw a slight decline of over 1%, totaling $62 billion during the same period. (MT/AFP, 08.30.24)
• The United States and China agreed Aug. 28 to more military talks and a call between the two countries' leaders, after two days of talks between U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, aimed at preventing the difficult relationship from veering into conflict. Sullivan raised concerns about China's "unfair trade policies" and Beijing's support for Russia's defense industrial base. Sullivan said his meetings in Beijing  covered issues ranging from Taiwan and the South China Sea to Beijing’s support for Russia and cooperation on issues such as curbing illicit drug trafficking. Xi told Sullivan that the international situation is “complex and volatile” and the two superpowers need to be “a stable source of world peace.” (FT, 08.29.24, FT, 08.29.24, WP, 08.28.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms

• The world’s nuclear non-proliferation regime is under greater pressure than at any time since the end of the cold war, as “important” countries were openly debating whether to develop atomic weapons, IAEA’s Rafael Grossi warned. “There are all these tensions, this possibility of alliances being weakened and countries having to fend for themselves. This is where the nuclear weapon factor, and attraction, comes back in a very unexpected way,” he said, while declining to name any specific countries. (FT, 08.26.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Six local residents have been detained in Ingushetia for plotting an attack on law enforcement officers and the Church of the Intercession of the Holy Virgin in the city of Sunzha, the FSB Public Relations Center claims. The FSB called them "adherents of an international terrorist organization banned in Russia." One of the detainees says that he considered "Ingush imams to be lost in some [issues]" and began listening to lectures on social media by the Wahhabi preacher Abdullah Kosteksky, after which he wanted to "take the path of jihad." (Meduza, 08.28.24)
• Five new suspects linked to the deadly March attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall are now facing trial on terrorism and weapons charges, the city’s court system said Aug. 29. The press service for Moscow's courts of common jurisdiction said that the pretrial detention of Shahromjon Gadoev, Zubaidullo Ismoilov, Husein Hamidov, Mustaqim Soliev and Umedjon Soliev had been extended until at least Dec. 1. More than 20 individuals, including four alleged gunmen, were arrested following the March 22 attack, which resulted in 145 deaths and hundreds of injuries, making it the deadliest attack in Europe in the last two decades. The Islamic State affiliate ISIS-K claimed responsibility for the attack. (MT/AFP, 08.29.24, RFE/RL, 08.29.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Pavel Durov, the Russian-born entrepreneur who founded the online communications tool Telegram, was charged on Aug. 28 in France with a wide range of crimes for failing to prevent illicit activity on the app, and was barred from leaving the country. (NYY, 08.28.24)
  • Telegram is widely used by the Russian military for battlefield communications. “They practically detained the head of communication of the Russian army,” Russian military blogger channel Povernutie na Z Voine said in a Telegram statement. Baza, a Telegram channel affiliated with Russia’s security apparatus, said on Aug. 25 that Defense Ministry staff, prominent businessmen and officers at several security agencies had also been ordered to wipe work-related messages from the Telegram application. (RFE/RL, 08.26.24, Politico, 08.26.24)
    • "Many are joking that the arrest of Pavel Durov is essentially the arrest of the chief signals officer of the Russian armed forces," said Aleksey Rogozin, a Russian parliament adviser and former senior military industry executive. (WSJ, 08.30.24)
  • Durov has visited Russia more than 50 times since his “expulsion” in 2014, according to the leaked "Kordon" border service database. The Kremlin denied Aug. 26 that Putin met with Durov in Azerbaijan before the tech entrepreneur's arrest in France over the weekend. (Bloomberg, 08.26.24, MT/AFP, 08.26.24, Istories, 08.27.24)
  • In Ukraine, Telegram’s popularity has soared since the full-scale war with Russia began in 2022. Only 20% of Ukrainians sourced their news on Telegram in 2021. By November 2023, the number had risen to more than 70%, according to a survey by USAID/Internews. Millions of Ukrainians look for real-time alerts on air raids and loved ones in the Telegram application. (FT, 08.29.24)
  • At a lunch in 2018, Macron invited the Russian-born Durov to move Telegram to Paris, people familiar with the discussions said. Durov declined at the time. The French leader even discussed granting French citizenship to him. In 2017, the year before the meeting with Macron, French spies targeted Durov in a joint operation with the United Arab Emirates that hacked his iPhone, according to people familiar with the matter. French security officials were acutely concerned about Islamic State’s use of Telegram to recruit operatives and plan attacks. On Aug. 29, Marcon said that he stands fully behind the decision to grant French citizenship to Durov. “I granted citizenship to Durov, who learned French, just as I did for some athletes and artists, and I think that's something good for our country. I will continue to do that every time,” Macron said. (RFE/RL, 08.29.24, WSJ, 08.28.24)
  • The United Arab Emirates said Aug. 27 it had requested consular services for Durov. (MT/AFP, 08.27.24)
  • Telegram’s 2023 financial statements, seen by the Financial Times and not previously reported, show that the company made $342 million in revenues last year on an operating loss of $108 million. Total losses stood at around $173 million after tax. (FT, 08.30.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project sharply hiked processing in July as it prepared to start liquefied-gas exports, defying U.S. restrictions. The Novatek PJSC-led plant, sanctioned by the U.S. in November, processed around 28.7 million cubic meters of gas last month, according to a person with knowledge of industry data. That’s 3.5 times more than June. (Bloomberg, 08.27.24)
• A sanctioned liquefied natural gas tanker appears to be transferring its Russian cargo to another ship in the Mediterranean Sea, a sign of the lengths to which Moscow is going to circumvent U.S. actions. As of Aug. 27 The Pioneer was anchored next to another vessel about 30 kilometers (19 miles) northeast of Egypt’s Port Said, according to satellite images. (Bloomberg, 08.26.24)
• The Republic of Palau, an island nation in the Western Pacific, has temporarily suspended the registration of three liquefied natural gas carriers that were recently sanctioned by the U.S. over links to Russian gas exports. (Bloomberg, 08.27.24)
• Ukrainian diver Vladimir Zhuravlev, suspected of sabotaging the Nord Streams, left Poland in a car with diplomatic license plates used by the Ukrainian embassy in Warsaw. This was reported by the German publication Spiegel, citing sources in German law enforcement agencies. (Istories, 08.30.24)
• Qatar is the last remaining bidder for the seized German operations of Russia’s state-controlled oil company Rosneft PJSC, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 08.28.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. intelligence agencies are better-positioned than they were in 2016 to confront foreign adversaries that try to meddle in this year’s presidential election, officials said. The spy agencies had an “ad hoc” approach when they tried to counter Russia’s bid to sow discord ahead of the 2016 vote, CIA Deputy Director David Cohen told the INSA intelligence and national security conference. (Bloomberg, 08.28.24)
• Neither Russia nor Ukraine nor Putin nor Zelenskyy were mentioned by either Harris or Walz in their Aug. 29 interview with CNN. (RM, 08.29.24)
• Trump announced Aug. 27 that he has added Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard to his transition team, giving key roles to two former Democrats who endorsed his comeback campaign in recent days. Gabbard has been a vocal opponent of U.S. military interventions overseas, opposing U.S. aid to Ukraine for its war against Russia. She spoke with Trump and his advisers this year about foreign policy and how to run the Pentagon if he wins in November. (WP, 08.28.24)
• A Russian court on Aug. 24 freed Israeli-Canadian citizen Joshua Cartu who was arrested earlier this week at the request of the U.S. over alleged financial crimes. Dubbed the "Ferrari fugitive," the racing car driver and entrepreneur has been accused along with his brothers of defrauding investors of millions of dollars. He was detained on Aug. 26 by Russia's Interpol unit at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Airport after being declared "wanted" by the U.S. St. Petersburg's Moskovsky District court ruled to "terminate proceedings" against Cartu, saying Russian authorities had not received an official extradition request. (MT/AFP, 08.24.24)
• Judge Rizvan Yusupov of Tatarstan's Supreme Court, who upheld the extension of the pretrial arrest of RFE/RL journalist Alsu Kurmasheva in June, may lose his position after he confirmed reports that his children have U.S. citizenship. (RFE/RL, 08.30.24)
• Russian internet providers have started implementing workarounds to speed up YouTube amid what appears to be a government effort to throttle the video streaming platform, the Kommersant business daily reported Aug. 28, citing industry insiders. (MT/AFP, 08.28.24)
• The Russian television channel TNT has begun production on a comedy series about Biden that is set to premiere next year, the network announced Aug. 27. (MT/AFP, 08.27.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Putin now plans to invest heavily in infrastructure that will enable his country’s economy to flourish even while cut off from the West. Over the next decade, the Russian state expects to funnel $70 billion into the construction of transport routes to connect the country to trade partners in Asia and the Middle East. Russia’s far east and high north will receive the lion’s share; a smaller sum will go on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a project designed to link Russia and the Indian Ocean via Iran. Officials promise growth in traffic along all non-Western trade routes. (The Economist, 08.30.24)
• Russia’s “overheating” economy will slow sharply next year with interest rates stuck at well above prewar levels until 2027, the Russian central bank has said. Rapid growth, expected to hit 3.5 to 4% this year, has been driven primarily by strong domestic demand from consumers and the state, which has outpaced supply, the CBR said in its annual report. The CBR projects economic growth of 0.5 to 1.5% in 2025 and 1 to 2% in 2026, under its baseline scenario. CBR said acute labor shortages and the negative effects of western sanctions were crimping production. (FT, 08.30.24)
  • According to World Bank’s June 2024 estimate, growth in Russia is forecast to decelerate to 2.9 percent in 2024, 1.4 percent in 2025 and 1.1 percent in 2026, near its potential rate. (RM, 08.30.24)
• Gazprom Group more than tripled its net income in the first half of the year thanks to higher pipeline gas exports, robust oil sales and its purchase of Shell Plc’s former stake in the Sakhalin-2 project. The Russian energy giant posted a net income of 1.04 trillion rubles ($11.3 billion) in the first six months of 2024, compared with 296.2 billion rubles a year earlier, according to an earnings report published on Aug. 29. (Bloomberg, 08.29.24)
• RTVI reported on a company that is named Banknota LLC and that was second only to Rosneft and Gazprom in terms of revenue, but that was registered to repeatedly convicted Russian citizen Dmitry Frolov. Banknota was registered only in June 2023, but, according to reports, it managed to earn 3.7 trillion rubles during this time, and its net profit amounted to 3.4 trillion rubles. This, as RTVI calculated, is 8.5% of the Russian budget or 22% of the entire retail lending market in the country. (Media Zone, 08.27.24)
• A court in Siberia on Aug. 30 sentenced Sergei Mikhailov, a journalist and founder of the LIStok newspaper in the city of Gorno-Altaisk, to eight years in prison on a charge of distributing false information about the Russian military. (RFE/RL, 08.30.24)
• The head of Russian Transparency International Ilya Shumanov has been added to the federal wanted list of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Mediazona noted. This means that a criminal case has been opened against him in absentia in Russia. Shumanov himself told Mediazona that the case was opened under the article for the absence of markings on his materials, which he was supposed to put as a foreign agent. (Media Zone, 08.24.24)
• A Moscow court issued an arrest warrant on Aug. 26 for Aleksandra Frolova, a self-exiled member of late opposition politician Aleksei Navalny's team. (RFE/RL, 08.26.24)
• A Russian court on Aug. 28 sentenced a supporter of late opposition politician Aleksei Navalny to 30 months in prison on charges of "taking part in an extremist group's activities" and "vandalism." Twenty-year-old Artemy Perevozchikov was arrested in March 2023 after he painted graffiti slogans demanding Navalny's release from prison. (RFE/RL, 08.28.24)
• The former editor in chief of Novaya Gazeta and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov has called on the Red Cross to intervene to alleviate the situation of Aleksei Gorinov, who is serving a 7-year sentence that rights groups and his supporters say is politically motivated. (RFE/RL, 08.28.24)
• A court in Siberia on Aug. 30 sentenced Sergei Mikhailov, a journalist and founder of the LIStok newspaper in the city of Gorno-Altaisk, to eight years in prison on a charge of distributing false information about the Russian military. (RFE/RL, 08.30.24)
• The Kremlin refuses to cancel next month’s elections in the Kursk border region despite Ukraine’s ongoing offensive there, deeming it to be “only a local crisis” from a military perspective, three Russian officials familiar with the election preparations told Politika.Kozlov. (MT/AFP, 08.26.24)
• A court in Russia on Aug. 28 extended the pretrial detention of saxophonist Andrei Shabanov, who has a very serious medical condition, for another six months over his anti-war stance. (RFE/RL, 08.29.24)
• The Russian Justice Ministry has designated Meduza’s co-founder and publisher, Galina Timchenko, as a “foreign agent.” (Meduza, 08.30.24)
• A July Levada Center Poll of Russian attitudes focuses on how Russians feel about (1) the quality of life; (2) confidence in the future; and (3) their resilience. 54% of Russians report that they are satisfied with the life they lead (the all-time high was recorded in April 2023 at 55%; up from an all-time low of 33% in June 1992). 66% of respondents reported feeling very or somewhat confident in the future (the maximum recorded level was 67% in May of 2022, and the highest reported level of Russians who said they were either not or only somewhat confident dates from January 1995, at 77%). Finally, over the past seven years those reporting life has changed little overall increased from 20% to 38%; while those claiming they have to ‘spin’ to grab any opportunity to earn decreased from a high of 29% to just 23% today. (Levada, 08.28.24)
• Some 67% of Russians believed in August that Russia was headed in the right direction compared to 72% in July. The share of Russians who approve Putin’s presidential conduct went from 87% to 85% in that period. (Levada, 08.29.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• In Murmansk, on behalf of Putin, presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev held a meeting on ensuring national interests in the Arctic, the development of the Northern Sea Route, shipbuilding and port facilities. Attention was paid to the modernization of infrastructure and development of the ports of the Northern Sea Route, including the development of the Murmansk port as a multimodal transport hub. In addition, the issues of increasing the construction of modern domestic cargo ships, including ice-class vessels, at Russian shipyards, the problems of reconstruction and technical re-equipment of shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises were discussed. During the visit to the base of the Northern Sea Fleet, Patrushev also discussed with fleet command the issues of protecting Russia’s national interests in the Arctic. (Kremlin.ru, 08.20.24)
• Vladimir Putin is spending big on his war in Ukraine. The Russian president has disbursed over $200 billion, or 10% of GDP, on the invasion, according to America’s Department of Defense. (The Economist, 08.30.24) See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• A video showing Russian soldiers shamelessly plundering parcels in a warehouse located in one of the villages they still control in the Kursk region has surfaced online. While Ukrainians have been fighting for nearly three weeks in the Kursk region to "push the war onto enemy territory", in one of the villages outside their control, where there is a Wildberries online shop warehouse, Russians are engaging in regular looting. (MSN, 08.24.24)
• Former Wagner Group fighter Ivan Rossomakhin, who was sentenced in April for raping and murdering an elderly woman in Russia, has been released and sent back to the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.26.24)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) dismantled an underground gambling operation inside a penal colony in the Rostov region, local media reported Aug. 26. FSB agents seized playing cards, casino chips, a mobile phone, SIM cards and other equipment used to run the illicit casino at Penal Colony No. 14 in the town of Novocherkassk, One inmate was identified as the organizer of the gambling ring and reportedly paid winners an average of 100,000 rubles ($1,100) per month via bank transfers, which were made twice a month. (MT/AFP, 08.26.24)
• A Russian military court sentenced an engineer to 18 years in prison on Aug. 28 after authorities claimed they foiled his attempt to blow up an army recruitment office, the state-run TASS news agency reported. The court found Artyom Lozovoi, 39, guilty of treason in the form of espionage, of preparing a "terrorist attack" and of illegally handling explosives. (MT/AFP, 08.28.24)
• Russia's Investigative Committee said on Aug. 29 that it has launched a probe on fraud charges against former Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Popov, part of an ongoing campaign against top military officials. The Investigative Committee added that Popov, who is a general in the Russian Army, was detained. Popov, who was sacked from the post in June after serving 11 years as a deputy defense minister, is suspected of illegal enrichment via fraudulent activities linked to his supervision of the operations of the Defense Ministry's Patriot Park near Moscow in 2021–24. (RFE/RL, 08.29.24) This is clearly a blow to Sergei Shoigu, whom Putin has transferred from the post of the defense minister to that of the secretary of the security council. Popov has been one of Sergei Shoigu’s allies for many years, working as Shoigu’s deputy in 2008–2013 when Shoigu was the Minister for Emergency Situations. 
• Police in Russia's Perm region on Aug. 30 launched a manhunt to catch a former inmate, Artyom Buchin, who is suspected of killing a 28-year-old woman and her daughter after returning from the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.30.24)

• Staff shortages, beatings, corruption and harsh treatment of Muslim prisoners have all led to unrest among Russian inmates, with recent uprisings turning deadly. (NYT, 08.30.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The Arctic Council is resuming cooperation with Russia after a two-year hiatus. The council froze projects and cooperation with Russia in March 2022 due to Russia's war in Ukraine. (yle.fi, 08.30.24)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia next week, the Kremlin announced Aug. 29, marking his first trip to a country that is legally obligated to arrest and hand him over to the International Criminal Court (ICC). According to the Kremlin, Putin will visit Mongolia at the invitation of its president to commemorate the 1939 Soviet-Mongolian victory over Japan in the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. “Putin received assurances ahead of a planned visit to Mongolia that he won’t be arrested for alleged war crimes under a warrant from the International Criminal Court, according to two people familiar with the Kremlin’s preparations. (Bloomberg, 08.30.24, MT/AFP, 08.29.24)
  • The militaries of Russia and Mongolia finished the main phase of joint exercises near the Asian nation’s borders with Russia and China, Moscow said Aug. 26. Around 700 servicemen and 200 pieces of military equipment were involved in Selenga-2024 — including drones, MiG-29 and Su-25 warplanes, Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters and Grad multiple rocket launchers. Aug. 26’s main phase of the ongoing exercises simulated a “joint Russian-Mongolian group of troops” liberating a settlement taken by “illegal armed groups,” according to the Russian military. (MT/AFP, 08.26.24)
• Russia-friendly parties across three eastern German states—Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia—are poised to score substantial gains in regional elections in September, two of which are set for Sunday. The pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (AfD) has a strong chance of finishing first in all three states, and the recently formed leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) surging, Moscow stands to reestablish a strong foothold across a broad swath of the former East Germany (Politico, 08.29.24)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Aug. 27 that it has filed criminal charges against a Deutsche Welle reporter and a Ukrainian television journalist for illegally crossing the border into the Kursk region during a reporting assignment. (MT/AFP, 08.27.24)
• The prominent Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram project's continued meetings with Iraqi officials appear to be supporting Iranian-backed Iraqi efforts to gain greater control of their information and media space. The Rybar team announced on Aug. 28 that they met with the head of the media service of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Muhhanad al Aqaabi to discuss the role of foreign media organizations in Iraq's information environment. (ISW, 08.28.24)
• In a move underscoring deepening ties between Russia and Uganda, Moscow has donated $100 million to the Ugandan military, equivalent to nearly 10% of the East African country’s defense budget, the Africa Report writes. The newspaper reports that there were about 200–300 fighters in Burkina Faso, who were supporting the ruling junta. (BNE, 08.30.24)
• About 100 fighters from the Russian "Bears" brigade left Burkina Faso due to the Ukrainian military's advance in the Kursk region. This was reported by Le Monde, citing the brigade's commander, Viktor Yermolaev. (Istories, 08.30.24)
• The International Paralympic Committee (IPC) announced on Aug. 26 that 88 Russian competitors will take part under a neutral banner at the Paris Paralympics. (RFE/RL, 08.26.24)
• Russian steel prices rose by 5% to 20% this year as first-half demand climbed by almost 6%, according to BCS analysts. (Bloomberg, 08.28.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainians may possess anywhere from 2 to 5 million units of undeclared weapons. This was announced on the air of the Unified News telethon by Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Bohdan Drapyaty. (Korrespondent.net, 08.28.24)
• The Appellate Chamber of the High Anti-Corruption Court left former Deputy Minister of Energy Oleksandr Kheyle, who was detained for accepting a bribe, in custody. On Aug. 12 in Kyiv, law enforcement officers disclosed that they suspected Deputy Minister of Energy Oleksandr Kheyle and three of his accomplices for accepting a bribe of USD 500 thousand dollars for permission to export mining equipment from a frontline area. (Korrespondent.net, 08.30.24)
• The State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine (DBR) said on Thursday it has placed fugitive Ukrainian lawmaker Artyom Dmitruk on an international wanted list, following serious allegations of multiple criminal activities. Dmitruk, a sitting MP from ruling Zelenskyy’s “Servant of the People” party, is accused of involvement in a series of violent incidents, including attacks on civilians and law enforcement officers. (Bukvy.org, 08.29.24)
• The Slovak Interior Ministry has canceled the temporary protective status it granted to Artem Marchevskiy, a close associate of pro-Russia Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk. (RFE/RL, 08.26.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Ukraine accused its Moscow-allied neighbor Belarus on Sunday of "concentrating" troops on the countries' shared border and warned Minsk against "unfriendly actions," in a statement by Kyiv's foreign ministry. (MT/AFP, 08.25.24)
• Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili has called the country's upcoming parliamentary elections a "choice between Europe and Russia" for the South Caucasus nation. Zurabishvili's statement came after she signed a decree announcing Oct. 26, the last Saturday of October, as the day for the parliamentary polls, saying that voters will have to "choose between war and peace" in the election." (RFE/RL, 08.27.24)
• Georgia's notorious "foreign-agent" law has come into effect. But not everyone is obeying it. Some 400 organizations in Georgia, they are publicly refusing to submit as an act of civil disobedience. (RFE/RL, 08.24.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “Facing challenges from a rising China in Asia and a Russia that is intensifying its war against Ukraine in Europe, the current U.S. surge to the Middle East cannot be sustained indefinitely,” Graham Allison and Amos Yadlin write in a FA piece, entitled “A Cease-Fire Deal Now Would Be a Victory for Israel.” (RM, 08.30.24)

Footnotes

1. Contrast Syrskyi’s estimate of 500 square miles with Ukrainian land gains in Kursk increasing with Cohen’s estimate of 300 square miles with these gains decreasing. 
2. Currently the site hosts two active RBMK reactors (Kursk 3&4) and two decommissioned older RBMK units (Kursk 1&2), according to Nuclear Engineering International’s 08.29.24 report.
3. For Serhii Plokhy’s account of some of the stages of the Russian occupation of the Chernobyl NPP, see excerpts from his new book in WP.
4. For a detailed description of what missiles the Russian military launched in this attack and from what locations, see this assessment by ISW, released Aug. 26.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander Kubitza available in the public domain.