This Week’s Highlights

• The Aug. 8 accident at a Russian northern military base did not involve “a new launch of the weapon; instead it was a recovery mission to salvage a lost missile from a previous test,” according to an unnamed U.S. official aware of the relevant U.S. intelligence as cited by CNBC. “There was an explosion on one of the vessels involved in the recovery and that caused a reaction in the missile’s nuclear core, which led to the radiation leak,” another unnamed source told the outlet. Norwegian nuclear safety expert Nils Bøhmer told The Barents Observer it was clear that a nuclear reactor had exploded: "The presence of decay products like barium and strontium is coming from a nuclear chain reaction.”
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said he and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, discussed the joint production of Sukhoi-57 stealth fighter jets during Erdoğan’s visit to Moscow. Russia and Turkey are discussing the possibility of deliveries of both Su-57s and Su-35s to Turkey, according to multiple news reports citing Russian officials’ statements made during the visit.
• Russia spends almost $73 billion per year, or 5.3 percent of its GDP, on secret weapons and intellectual property—expenditures that total over 5 percent of the economy, according to official data analyzed by the RBC news website, as reported by The Moscow Times.
• A Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson has said Beijing and Moscow have agreed that “the Chinese Armed Forces will take part in the Tsentr-2019 drills that will run in the Orenburg Region in Russia," according to the U.K.’s Express newspaper. The integrated grouping, to be created using the forces of the Chinese army’s Western Theater Command, will comprise about 1,600 troops, 300 weapon systems and about 30 aircraft and helicopters, according to the spokesperson.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his ruling political party have formed the youngest and least experienced government in Ukraine’s post-independence history, according to RFE/RL.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia’s state meteorological agency says it found several radioactive isotopes in samples it took following an Aug. 8 accident at a northern military base. Rosgidromet said in a statement on Aug. 26 that it found strontium, barium and lanthanum in test samples in nearby Severodvinsk, but added that there was no danger to the public at large. The isotopes were Strontium-91, Barium-139, Barium-140 and Lanthanum-140, which have half-lives of 9.3 hours, 83 minutes, 12.8 days and 40 hours respectively, it said. Norwegian nuclear safety expert Nils Bøhmer said the information removes any doubts about the explosion's nuclear nature: "The presence of decay products like barium and strontium is coming from a nuclear chain reaction. It is proof that it was a nuclear reactor that exploded," Bøhmer says. (RFE/RL, 08.26.19, The Barents Observer., 08.26.19)
• “This was not a new launch of the weapon; instead, it was a recovery mission to salvage a lost missile from a previous test,” CNBC cited an unnamed U.S. official, reportedly with direct knowledge of a U.S. intelligence assessment of the Aug. 8 accident, as saying. “There was an explosion on one of the vessels involved in the recovery and that caused a reaction in the missile’s nuclear core, which led to the radiation leak,” another unnamed source told the outlet Aug. 29. The U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty news outlet’s Russian-language service came to the same conclusion after analyzing photographs of nuclear waste containers at what are thought to be previous Burevestnik test sites.(The Moscow Times, 08.30.19)
• Reports of a second blast from a deadly Russian rocket engine test may be wrong, and the signals could stem from unrelated mining activity, the Norwegian monitor that first presented the double explosion theory has said. (Reuters, 08.27.19)
• The Aug. 22 session of the U.N. Security Council saw the United States demand details of the recent explosion in northern Russia that killed five nuclear engineers and led to a temporary spike in atmospheric radiation in the region. (RFE/RL, 08.23.19)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korean authorities have ordered migrant workers living in Russia to hand over an additional $100 of their salaries each month as the Kim Jong Un regime struggles to secure foreign currency. (Radio Free Asia, 08.26.19)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• U.S. President Donald Trump has said it was "too soon" to meet Iran’s foreign minister, who made a surprise weekend visit to a summit of the G7 leading industrialized nations in France. He reiterated that Washington is not looking for regime change in Tehran. (RFE/RL, 08.26.19)
• The head of Iran's aerospace sector has announced new offers to purchase fighter jets from Russia and China. (Newsweek, 08.29.19)
• Russia has offered to help Iran skirt U.S. sanctions by allowing it to transport crude oil through ports in Crimea, in a further sign of growing ties between Moscow and Tehran. Georgy Muradov, the Kremlin’s representative in Crimea, announced the offer. “Iran can use our shipping capabilities and transport oil through the Volga-Don canal, via Crimea, to the Black Sea,” he said. (The Times, 08.30.19)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• President Trump on Aug. 29 formally established the United States Space Command. Its commander, Air Force Gen. John Raymond, cited advances by Russia and China that have rendered space a contested domain where the United States faces threats that it didn't before. In response, the head of Russia’s space agency suggested that the militarization of space was inevitable. In a tweet, Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin said: "Slowly but surely, we are heading towards this. @Roscosmos has no illusions about this. Everyone is working on it." (The Washington Post, 08.29.19, Newsweek, 08.30.19)
• U.S. Vice President Mike Pence is scheduled to visit Iceland on Sept. 4 for "national security-focused" discussions on Russian and Chinese "incursions" in the Arctic Circle, Reuters reports, citing a senior U.S. presidential official. (RFE/RL, 08.29.19)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said he and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, discussed the joint production of Sukhoi-57 stealth fighter jets during Erdoğan’s visit to Moscow. Russia and Turkey are also discussing the possibility of deliveries of the Russian-made Su-57 and Su-35 aircraft to Turkey, the state-run RIA news agency cited a Russian official as saying Aug. 28. Erdoğan and Putin visited the MAKS 2019 air show Aug. 27, examining both warplanes. Both leaders later hinted at the prospect of Turkey purchasing the jets. Russia and NATO member Turkey are  also in talks over the possibility of creating a new fighter jet, Russian government officials said Aug. 28. The two sides held "technical consultations" on the joint creation of a fighter jet and "initial talks" on developing a Turkish fighter aircraft, Russian media cited officials from Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation as saying. (TASS, 08.27.19, Reuters, Daily Sabah, 08.28.19, The Washington Post, 08.29.19)
• Russia delivered another battery of its S-400 missile defenses to Turkey on Aug. 27. (Reuters, 08.27.19)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Russia on Aug. 30 announced a unilateral ceasefire in northwestern Syria, where Moscow-backed government forces have been waging a fierce offensive to capture the rebels' last major stronghold. The ceasefire is due to begin the following morning, and the announcement came as displaced Syrian civilians tried to push through a border crossing to enter neighboring Turkey, amid a deteriorating situation in Idlib province. (Al Jazeera, 08.30.19)
• President Vladimir Putin said on Aug. 27 that Russia and Turkey had agreed on steps to tackle militants in northwest Syria and "normalize" the situation there after a Syrian army offensive encircled rebel fighters and a Turkish military post. "Together with Turkey's president we have outlined additional joint steps to neutralize the terrorists' nests in Idlib and normalize the situation there and in the whole of Syria as a result," Putin told a joint briefing with Erdogan. He did not mention Erdogan's call for the Syrian army assault to be halted. (Reuters, 08.28.19)
• Israel has carried out an airstrike on a weapons depot in Iraq that officials said was being used by Iran to move weapons to Syria, an attack that could destabilize Iraq and thrust it deeper into the conflict between the United States and Iran. The Israeli attack on July 19 struck a base that was being used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to transfer weapons to Syria, according to a Middle Eastern intelligence official. Two senior American officials said Israel had carried out several strikes in recent days on munitions storehouses for Iranian-backed groups in Iraq. (New York Times, 08.22.19)

Cyber security:

• No significant developments.

Elections interference:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports:

• No significant developments.

Bilateral economic ties:

• A subsidiary of Russian conglomerate Rostec has sued Boeing for a total of $115 million to cancel its order for 35 of the troubled 737 Max jets, making it the first customer to bring a lawsuit against the crisis-hit U.S. manufacturer. (The Moscow Times, 08.27.19)

Other bilateral issues:

• U.S. President Donald Trump said it was “certainly possible” he could invite Vladimir Putin to the next G7 summit in the U.S. The Kremlin said it would consider the invitation. Trump’s demand to readmit Russia into the G7 led to “heated exchanges” at the group's annual summit last weekend. Only Italy’s outgoing prime minister had reportedly backed Trump’s idea to readmit Russia, while Japan’s prime minister remained neutral. (The Moscow Times, 08.26.19, The Moscow Times, 08.26.19)
• A new round of U.S. sanctions on Russia over the poisoning of a former spy in Britain last year went into effect on Aug. 26. The new sanctions block international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, from lending or providing any technical or financial assistance to Russia. They also block U.S. banks from lending to Russia, except for purchasing food or other agricultural products, and authorize the U.S. Commerce Department to deny Russia export licenses for chemical and biological goods and technology. (The Moscow Times, 08.26.19)
• The lawyer for Paul Whelan, a U.S. citizen charged in Russia with espionage, says his client needs to be released from detention for surgery for an inguinal hernia. Whelan, who has denied all charges, told reporters during an Aug. 23 Moscow court hearing that he had been abused by prison guards during his incarceration. The court decided later that his pretrial detention should be extended until Oct. 29. (RFE/RL, 08.26.19)
• Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson said Russia refused to grant them visas for a visit to Moscow next week. The Russian Foreign Ministry says the senators “knew well” they were on a list of officials barred from the country. (Reuters, 08.28.19, RFE/RL, 08.28.19)
• Felix Sater, a Russian-born businessman at the center of a plan to build a Trump-branded tower in Moscow, began working with the FBI in 1998, after he was caught in a stock-fraud scheme. "Sater went above and beyond what is expected of most cooperators and placed himself in great jeopardy in doing so," prosecutors wrote in pushing for him to get a lighter sentence. (Wall Street Journal, 08.23.19)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• Informal production in Russia totaled 11.7 trillion rubles ($175.6 billion) in 2017, RBC cited newly released Rosstat data as saying. That reportedly amounts to 12.7 percent of Russia’s 92.1 trillion ruble ($1.37 trillion) market-price GDP that year. (The Moscow Times, 08.30.19)
• Total consumer debt in Russia grew by 25 percent in the past year to about 16 trillion rubles, according to the central bank. Half of that figure is due to a boom in unsecured loans, which typically carry interest rates of 20 to 25 percent. GDP growth, which has dipped to 0.9 percent so far this year, would likely have been zero if not for the rise in lending, according to Russia’s central bank.  (Financial Times, 08.29.19)
• Over the last 10 years, Russia has boosted its annual coal production by more than 30 percent to a total of 440 million tons, and the country is now the world’s third-largest producer, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. (The Barents Observer, 08.26.19)
• Russia generated over 7.2 billion tons of household and industrial waste in 2018, almost 315,000 tons of which were imported, according to the Federal Service for Supervision of Natural Resources. Russia recycles only 12 percent of the 3 million tons of plastic waste it generates each year, RBC cited Greenpeace Russia as saying. (The Moscow Times, 08.30.19)
• The Arctic shortcut that connects Asia and Europe is open and ice-free and shipping appears smooth, including for vessels without ice-class standards. The last pieces of frozen water vanished in mid-August and data shows that the whole route is now free of ice. Meanwhile, Russia’s military has announced the discovery of five new islands in the Arctic after a glacier in the region melted away, exposing the landmasses. The islands, first found in 2016, range in size from 9,600 all the way up to 580,000 square feet. (The Barents Observer, 08.29.19, Newsweek, 08.29.19)
• Moscow’s mayor has raised the city’s monthly retirement payout less than two weeks before a local election that has triggered the largest sustained protest movement in Russia in recent years. (The Moscow Times, 08.28.19)
• Authorities in the Russian region of Chechnya on Aug. 23 inaugurated what they said was the largest mosque in Europe in a pomp-filled ceremony attended by local and foreign officials. (Reuters, 08.23.19)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia spends almost $73 billion per year, or 5.3 percent of Russia’s GDP, on secret weapons and intellectual property, expenditures that total over 5 percent of the economy, according to official data analyzed by the RBC news website. (The Moscow Times, 08.28.19)
• Russia test-fired Sineva and Bulava ballistic missiles from two submarines in the Arctic Ocean on Aug. 25 as part of combat training. The Sineva, a liquid-fueled intercontinental missile, was fired from the Tula submarine, while the Bulava, Russia's newest solid-fueled missile, was launched from the Yuri Dolgoruky submarine. (The Moscow Times, 08.26.19)
• The 11th annual Russian-Mongolian drills, the Selenga-2019, took place in Mongolia Aug. 15-24 and involved 1,400 troops from both countries this year. (The Moscow Times, 08.30.19)
• A Russian Soyuz spacecraft carrying a humanoid robot docked with the International Space Station (ISS) on Aug. 27, the state-run TASS news agency reported, citing a live broadcast. (Reuters, 08.27.19)
• Russia has unveiled a new space suit but the design may have to be changed to continue a decades-old tradition: making a stop to pee on the way to the launch. (AFP, 08.29.19)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• German authorities have arrested a Russian suspect on suspicion of killing Georgian national Zelimkhan Khangoshvili over his alleged involvement in the second Chechen war in what is being reported as a contract killing by foreign intelligence. The Kremlin said on Aug. 28 that the murder of the ethnic Chechen had nothing to do with the Russian state or its official agencies. (The Moscow Times, 08.26.19, Reuters, 08.28.19)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Pushing Russia further into isolation would be a “profound … error” by Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron has said. “Pushing Russia from Europe is a profound strategic error,” Macron told French diplomats Aug. 27 following the G7 summit he hosted over the weekend. Forcing Russia into isolation or an alliance with China “is not in our interests,” Macron said. “Nor is it in our interest to be weak vis-à-vis Russia, to forget our disagreements.” (The Moscow Times, 08.30.19)
• European Union foreign ministers on Aug. 30 urged Serbia not to stray from its EU membership path as the Balkans country readies to sign a trade agreement with a Russian-led economic bloc. (AP, 08.30.19)
• Russia’s ambassador to London, Alexander Yakovenko, has completed his assignment in Britain, the embassy has said. The Kommersant newspaper reported that Andrei Kelin, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department of European Cooperation, could be in line to become the new ambassador. (RFE/RL, 08.25.19)

China:

• A Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson said: "Under the consensus reached between China and Russia, the Chinese Armed Forces will take part in the Tsentr-2019 drills that will run in the Orenburg Region in Russia." The integrated grouping will be created using the forces of the Chinese Army’s Western Theater Command. It will comprise about 1,600 troops, 300 weapon systems and about 30 aircraft and helicopters, the spokesperson said. (Express, 08.29.19)
• China's Huawei has begun talks with Russia about installing Russian operating system (OS) Aurora on 360,000 of its tablets to conduct Russia's population census next year, two sources told Reuters. (Reuters, 08.27.19)

Ukraine:

• The office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Aug. 30 said no prisoner swap had taken place with Russia yet. Ukraine is hoping to secure the release of dozens of prisoners, including 24 sailors detained by Russia in the Kerch Strait last year and filmmaker Oleg Sentsov. Russia recently transferred Sentsov from a remote Arctic prison to custody in Moscow amid talks with Kiev on a possible prisoner swap. A Ukrainian court also freed a senior Russian journalist accused of supporting pro-Russian separatists. (Reuters, 08.30.19)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his ruling political party have formed the youngest and least experienced government in Ukraine’s post-independence history. Oleksiy Honcharuk, 35, became the nation’s youngest prime minister, beating the previous record held by his predecessor, Volodymyr Hroysman. Other appointments include former NATO Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko, 49, as foreign minister. The deputy head of the president's office, Ruslan Ryaboshapka, was confirmed as prosecutor-general. Andriy Zahorodniuk, 44, is the new defense minister. Zelenskiy’s former business partner, 45-year-old Ivan Bakanov, was appointed head of the SBU security service. The chairman of the Servant of the People party, Dmytro Razumkov, was chosen as parliamentary speaker. (RFE/RL, 08.30.19)
• On Aug. 26, French President Emmanuel Macron said the Normandy-format leaders will hold a summit next month. "We think that the conditions exist for a useful summit," Macron said at the end of a G7 meeting in the French resort of Biarritz. (RFE/RL, 08.28.19)
• U.S. national security adviser John Bolton says he discussed Washington’s concerns about the threat of "unfair Chinese trade practices" with Ukrainian officials during his trip to Kyiv. Asked on Aug. 28 about a possible acquisition by China of Ukrainian defense company Motor Sich, Bolton said he did not want to discuss specific companies and that such deals were a sovereign matter for Ukraine, according to Reuters. Bolton was earlier reported to have been seeking to scuttle the pending Chinese acquisition of Motor Sich on the grounds that it would give Beijing vital defense technology. (RFE/RL, 08.28.19, Wall Street Journal, 08.24.19)
• U.S. President Donald Trump is considering blocking $250 million in military aid to Ukraine, Western media report, raising objections from lawmakers of both U.S. political parties. Citing senior administration officials, Politico and Reuters reported that Trump had ordered a reassessment of the aid program Kyiv uses to battle Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.29.19)
• During his meeting with U.S. national security adviser John Bolton in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed hope that the United States will become more involved in the negotiation process aimed at putting an end to the fighting in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement on the presidential website. Bolton also raised the prospect of Zelenskiy meeting U.S. President Donald Trump at an event in the Polish capital, Warsaw, this weekend. Bolton said there is no need for Zelenskiy to "rush" into any course of action regarding Russia’s involvement with separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.28.19)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has likened Russia’s 2014 seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula to children "being stolen and issued a new birth certificate," as the country marked 28 years of independence on Aug. 24. (RFE/RL, 08.24.19)
• Russia will invite Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy to attend celebrations for the 75th anniversary of victory in WWII, to be held in Moscow on May 9, 2020, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters on Aug. 30. (TASS, 08.30.19)
• One Ukrainian soldier was killed and three were wounded in the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine after Russia-backed separatists opened fire with “grenade launchers, heavy machine guns, sniper rifles and small arms,” according to the Ukrainian military. (RFE/RL, 08.25.19)
• Ukraine is Europe’s biggest recipient of remittances in proportion to the size of its economy. More than 11 percent of Ukraine’s gross domestic product comes from remittances and its 5-million-strong workforce abroad last year sent home a record $14.4 billion through wire transfers and cash carried across the border. The lion’s share of these workers are from Ukraine’s western regions around Lviv. (Financial Times, 08.26.19)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• U.S. national security adviser John Bolton has called for the United States and Belarus to engage in a dialogue about their common interests, while also saying he had told President Alexander Lukashenka and other Belarusian officials that “there are significant issues in the bilateral relationship involving human rights and nonproliferation.” (RFE/RL, 08.29.19)
• Belarus is seeking to buy U.S. oil for its refineries for the first time as it strives to diversify supplies away from its more powerful, energy-rich neighbor Russia and build warmer relations with the West, RFE/RL has learned. (RFE/RL, 08.22.19)
• U.S. national security adviser John Bolton has held talks with Moldovan Prime Minister Maia Sandu of the pro-Western Now Platform in Chisinau on "security matters." Bolton, speaking at a joint news conference with Sandu, voiced support for the new Moldovan government's anticorruption moves. (RFE/RL, 08.29.19)
• Moldovan Prime Minister Maia Sandu says that the country's "citizens will never approve federalization," which is one of the proposals made by Russia to settle Moldova's problem with its Transdniester breakaway region. (RFE/RL, 08.25.19)
• Incumbent separatist leader Raul Khadzhimba and Alkhaz Kvitsiniya, head of the Amtsakhara opposition party, will face off in a runoff election in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia. (RFE/RL, 08.26.19)
• Russia has ordered an immigrant blogger critical of the authorities in his native Azerbaijan to be deported there after revoking his Russian citizenship, his family said. (Reuters, 08.30.19)
• The Central Bank of Uzbekistan is to no longer set limits on exchange rate fluctuations, thus completely removing the floating exchange rate corridor, the regulator’s chairman, Mamarizo Nurmuratov, was quoted as saying on state television. (bne IntelliNews, 08.22.19)