5 Things to Know

1. Chernobyl or Fukushima? This week, Russia and Ukraine continued to trade accusations of shelling the site of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plan located in southern Ukraine and controlled by Russian forces. Russian (and Turkish) officials have warned that Europe’s biggest nuclear plant could turn into a second Chernobyl, but experts said Fukushima would represent a better analogy for the “worst-case scenario” at the plant.
2. Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets in occupied parts of Ukraine and in Russia itself have surged as officials in Kyiv signaled the expansion of targets to include facilities in Crimea, such as the Kerch Strait bridge. Meanwhile Washington appears to have permitted targeting the peninsula with U.S. weapons. However, prospects for a large-scale Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kherson area are reported to be fading.
3. Beijing signals support for Moscow as Xi and Putin prepare to meet twice. In a clear show of support for Russia as it wages war in Ukraine, China will send its military to participate in Russia’s annual strategic wargame, which will this year take place in the country’s east from Aug. 30 to Sept. 5. India, Belarus, Mongolia and Tajikistan will also participate in the drill. Later in September, Xi and Putin are to meet for an SCO summit in Tajikistan, and the two leaders are to meet again at the G20 summit in Indonesia in November.
4. Russia’s Economy Ministry forecasts a surge in energy exports and a smaller GDP contraction. The ministry says it expects energy export revenue to reach $338 billion in 2022, up more than a third from $244 billion last year, according to Reuters and RFE/RL. The ministry is also preparing to revise this year’s GDP decline to 4.2% from the previously forecast 7.8% contraction.
5. Ukrainian corn and beans go West: The first supplies of grain from Ukraine have not all gone to the world’s neediest people, and contrary to popular perception, the vast majority of what’s currently being exported is not wheat, according to Politico. Corn has gone to the U.K. and Ireland, while Italy has received shipments of sunflower seeds and soybeans, according to this U.S. publications.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• This week, Russia and Ukraine continued to trade accusations of shelling the site of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant located in southern Ukraine and controlled by Russian forces.
  • Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky was quoted on Aug. 14 as saying that Russia was using the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which Russian forces control, to blackmail Kyiv and its allies. Zelensky was then quoted as decrying "Russia's nuclear terrorism" in a phone call on Aug. 16 with his French counterpart. In Aug. 18 remarks, Zelensky urged U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to have the U.N. ensure the safety of the plant. Russia's wider goal is stealing Zaporizhzhia's power by severing its connection to Ukraine's remaining territory, according to Ukrainian leaders, international nuclear-power experts and the plant's staff. (WSJ, 08.14.22, RFE/RL, 08.16.22, RFE/RL, 08.18.22, Newsweek, 08.19.22)
  • Moscow has rejected a proposal by Guterres to demilitarize the area around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the Ukrainian authorities have lost their sense of reality and, for the sake of their political goals, are ready to arrange a second Chernobyl in Zaporizhzhia. The Security Department of the U.N. Secretariat has failed to provide clear explanations for its decision to block a visit to the NPP, according to Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov. (TASS, 08.14.22, The Bell/TASS, 08.19.22, RFE/RL, 08.18.22)
• NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg urgently called on Russia to allow inspectors from the IAEA to visit the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (RFE/RL, 08.18.22)
• Forty-two countries from around the world have signed a statement urging Russia to withdraw its armed forces from the Zaporizhzhia NPP, saying their presence poses "a great danger." (RFE/RL, 08.15.22)
• Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Aug. 18 of a Chernobyl-like nuclear disaster in Ukraine during his first face-to-face talks with Zelensky since Russia's invasion began. Erdogan says he plans to discuss the issue with Vladimir Putin.  (MT/AFP, 08.19.22, RFE/RL, 08.19.22)
• On Aug. 18, the Ukrainian intelligence agency said that Rosatom engineers had “urgently” left the plant and that only “operative personnel” would be allowed at the plant on Aug. 19. (NYT, 08.19.22) 
• Some families living close to the Zaporizhzhia NPP in southeastern Ukraine packed up their belongings and started to flee Aug. 19 as Ukrainian authorities warned of a likely Russian attack on the nuclear plant 30 miles to the southwest. (WP, 08.19.22)
• Despite fears of a new nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia plant, there has been no indication of elevated radiation levels at the plant. Any radioactive fallout would spread around 10 or 20 kilometers from Zaporizhzhia before it would cease to pose serious health risks, experts suggest. Experts say a Chernobyl-sized disaster is unlikely. (CNN, 08.19.22, BAS, 08.18.22)
  • "It's not very likely that this plant will be damaged," Leon Cizelj, president of the European Nuclear Society, told CNN. "In the very unlikely case that it is, the radioactive problem would mostly affect Ukrainians that live nearby," rather than spreading throughout eastern Europe as was the case with Chernobyl, he said. "If we used past experience, Fukushima could be a comparison of the worst-case scenario," Cizelj added. The plant's six reactors—only two of which are currently functioning—are protected by steel and meters-thick concrete casing. "Random shelling cannot really destroy this, it would be really improbable," Cizelj said. (CNN, 08.19.22)
  • "The main danger here is damage to the systems needed to keep the fuel in the reactor cool—external power lines, emergency diesel generators, equipment to dissipate heat from the reactor core," Carnegie’s James Acton said. "Fukushima is a better analogy than Chernobyl," Acton said. (CNN, 08.19.22)
  • Rod Ewing, a professor of nuclear security at Stanford University, sees four vulnerabilities that need to be considered at the Zaporizhzhia plant: “the reactor themselves, spent fuel [storage] pools, the supporting equipment such as backup generators and the operating personnel.” (BAS, 08.18.22)
  • Olexi Pasyuk, a nuclear power expert and deputy-director of Ecoaction, said: “I think the Russians have a very clear understanding of what they do at the ZNPP. For now, they are interested to keep it running to provide electricity for occupied territories.   (BAS, 08.18.22)
• Ukrainian state nuclear operator Energoatom said on Aug. 16 that Russian-based hackers unleashed an hours-long attack on its website. (RFE/RL, 08.17.22)
• The State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine restored the Chernobyl NPP's licenses for decommissioning work at units 1, 2 and 3 of the Chernobyl NPP, operation of the confinement complex and the shelter facility, and the processing and storage of radioactive waste. (WNN, 08.17.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• About 30 vessels have traversed the narrow corridor in and out of Odesa since the Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by Turkey’s Erdogan, the U.N., Russia and Ukraine, was agreed on July 22. The Barbados-flagged Fulmar S left Ukraine's Chornomorsk port carrying 12,000 tons of corn to Turkey. The Marshall Island-flagged Thoe departed from the same port and also headed to Turkey, carrying 3,000 tons of sunflower seeds. The Liberian-flagged Brave Commander departed from the Ukrainian port of Yuzhne on Aug. 14 with Ukrainian grain on board. (RFE/RL, 08.14.22, RFE/RL, 08.15.22, FT, 08.18.22)
  • The first supplies of grain from Ukraine have not all gone to the world’s neediest people, and contrary to popular perception, the vast majority of what’s currently being exported is not wheat. Corn has gone to the U.K. and Ireland, while Italy has received shipments of sunflower seeds and soybeans. (Politico, 08.19.22)
  • The United States has pledged more than $68 million to the U.N. to buy and ship Ukrainian wheat. (NYT, 08.17.22)
• When millions of refugees flooded across its border in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland was hailed as a role model. Now the flow of assistance is drying up, with aid activists saying “refugee fatigue” has taken hold. (FT, 08.14.22)
• In Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, clergy members are targets. Dozens of priests from the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, the country's largest denomination, have been kidnapped or killed since the invasion began, according to church officials. Still more pastors from other denominations have been chased from their pulpits and imprisoned. (WSJ, 08.13.22)
• Russian authorities are further clamping down on local residents in the largely occupied southern Ukrainian region of Kherson, conducting house-to-house searches and requiring people to get Russian driver's licenses and even Russian passports in order to work, a Ukrainian official said. (RFE/RL, 08.15.22)
• According to a Rating Group poll conducted in Ukraine in July, close to 70% of respondents reported at least one form of war loss to their family. Roughly 1 in 5 respondents in July reported being displaced to a different region. Nearly 84% said they knew at least one person fighting in the war. (WP, 08.15.22)
• Hundreds of Ukrainian civilians, mainly men, have gone missing in the five months of the war in Ukraine, detained by Russian troops or their proxies. The U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has documented 287 cases of enforced disappearances and arbitrary detentions of civilians by Russia and says the total is almost certainly more, but probably in the hundreds, rather than the thousands. (NYT, 08.15.22)
• Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine's eastern region of Donetsk have charged five foreigners captured in Ukraine with being mercenaries in a trial process that began on Aug. 15, Russian media said. (RFE/RL, 08.16.22)
• Russia unleashed a furious barrage of rocket attacks on the northeastern city of Kharkiv overnight Aug. 17 and Aug. 18 morning, destroying a dormitory for the deaf, pulverizing scores of residential homes and killing at least 15 civilians, Ukrainian officials said. The civilian death toll in the city over the course of the six-month war has now surpassed 1,000, according to local officials. (NYT, 08.18.22)

Military, security and intelligence aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• The past several days have seen strikes against various Russian targets both in occupied parts of Ukraine and in Russia itself as Ukrainian officials signaled an expansion of targets to include facilities in Crimea, including the Kerch Strait bridge. These included:
  • Aug. 4, 9 and 12: Ukrainian sabotage groups" blew up six towers of high-voltage power lines in the Kurchatov district of the Kursk region, which led to violations in the technological process of the Kursk nuclear power plant. This was announced by Russia’s FSB. (Meduza, 08.16.22)
  • On Aug. 9, at least six massive explosions occurred at Saki air base in Crimea, home to a Russian naval aviation regiment. The blast reportedly killed one person and injured more than a dozen others. Ukraine said on Aug. 10 that nine Russian warplanes were destroyed in what appeared to be the result of a Ukrainian attack, which would represent a significant escalation in the war. (AP, 08.19.22, WP, 08.14.22)
  • On Aug. 15, Ukrainian forces struck one of Russian mercenary group Wagner’s bases in Popasna, in eastern Ukraine’s Luhansk region, regional authorities said Aug. 15. At least one person was killed and several others were wounded in the strike. (MT/AFP, 08.15.22)
  • On Aug. 16, Ukrainian forces struck in the Dzhankoi area of the Crimean Peninsula, blowing up an ammunition storage warehouse near the village of Maiskoye, injuring at least two people and prompting the evacuation of thousands of nearby residents. The Russian Defense Ministry blamed “an act of sabotage” for the blast. A senior Ukrainian government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, said the explosion was the work of Ukrainian special forces. About 11 miles from the location of the explosions, a transformer substation in the town of Dzhankoi was also on fire. At least two civilians were wounded, and power lines, railroad tracks and homes were damaged in multiple detonations in the village of Mayskoye, Russian officials said. (WP, 08.16.22, RFE/RL, 08.16.22, NYT, 08.16.22)
  • On Aug. 16, residents of Crimea’s Simferopolsky district were reporting black smoke over the Russian Air Force’s base in Gvardeyskoye. (Kommersant, 08.16.22)
  • On Aug. 19, explosions occurred in overnight Crimea, including blasts at an airfield outside Sevastopol. The Russians later said the booms were the sound of successful anti-aircraft fire. Loud bangs were also reported above the Kerch Strait bridge, the only land link connecting Russia to Crimea. Russia said an air-defense system had opened fire at a drone. On Aug. 19, the bridge appeared undamaged. (NYT, 08.19.22)
  • On Aug. 19, a large blast at an ammunition depot was also reported within Russia itself, in the border city of Belgorod, and was strong enough to require the evacuation of two villages. No one was injured in the incident. (NYT, 08.19.22, RFE/RL, 08.19.22)
• According to a Rating Group poll conducted in Ukraine in July about 80% of Ukrainians are fully confident in Ukraine’s military victory over Russia, and another 18% are mostly confident—the yardstick is pushing Russian forces back to the pre-February or even pre-2014 positions. (WP, 08.15.22)
• Prior to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the U.S. intelligence community had penetrated multiple points of Russia's political leadership, spying apparatus and military, from senior levels to the front lines, according to U.S. officials. (WP, 08.16.22)
• On Feb. 11, 2022, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace warned Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu that Russia would face fierce resistance if it invaded Ukraine “My mother’s Ukrainian,” Wallace said Shoigu replied, implying that he knew the people better. As the British officials were about to leave the meeting, Shoigu spoke directly to Wallace. "He looked me in the eye and said, 'We have no plans to invade Ukraine,'" Wallace recalled. "That shows you how much of a lie it was." (WP, 08.16.22)
• For weeks, Western intelligence and military analysts have predicted that a Ukrainian campaign to retake the strategic port city of Kherson and surrounding territory is imminent. But in trenches less than a mile from Russia's positions in the area, Ukrainian soldiers hunker down from an escalating onslaught of artillery, with little ability to advance. The progress Ukrainian forces had made here in recent months—recapturing a string of villages from Russia's control—has largely stalled, with soldiers exposed in the open terrain. (WP, 08.12.22, The Economist, 08.14.22)
  • The most demanding fighting has been done by just five brigades of Ukraine’s most experienced and skilled soldiers, notes Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute. These units are exhausted and have taken heavy casualties. Training new brigades and equipping them for an offensive will take time. (The Economist, 08.14.22)
• A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that, in the case of Latvia, its government felt comfortable providing Ukraine with some weapons because Russian forces that had been positioned near their shared border were withdrawn to join the war effort. There are currently about 600 Americans deployed in Latvia, up from about 100 last winter. (WP, 08.13.22)
• Cuts to Russian supply lines have not yet eroded the overwhelming advantage of Moscow’s forces in artillery, ammunition and heavy weaponry, making it difficult if not impossible for Ukrainian forces to press forward without suffering enormous casualties. (NYT, 08.15.22)
• Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, said this week that the Kerch Strait bridge was a legitimate target. “This bridge is an illegal object, permission for the construction of which was not given by Ukraine,” he wrote on Twitter. “It harms the peninsula’s ecology and therefore must be dismantled. Not important how—voluntary or not.” The bridge’s destruction would be one of the most significant blows Ukraine could inflict on Moscow because it would sever the single overland route to bring supplies from Russia to its bases in Crimea. Such objects should be destroyed, Podolyak said. (NYT, 08.19.22, Guardian, 08.17.22)
• The bridge connecting Crimea to Russia was closed overnight after a series of explosions rocked the occupied peninsula, the Kyiv Post reported Aug. 16. A record 38,000 cars on Aug. 15 drove in both directions across the 12-mile bridge, Russian state news agency TASS reported. On Aug. 19, the bridge appeared undamaged. (NYT, 08.16.22, BNE, 08.17.22, NYT, 08.19.22)
  •  It is interesting that it was Kremlin-friendly, Russia-based sources that reported the total number of cars (inbound+outbound) this time without offering a breakdown (or at least an initial search did not yield such a breakdown). It is interesting because when some of the same Kremlin-friendly sources reported one of the previous records in traffic on the bridge, they did so with a breakdown of inbound and outbound. For instance, Russian government-owned Rossiiskaya Gazeta reported in September 2021 that a daily (24 hour) record for the number of cars that went to Crimea from “mainland Russia” along the bridge was registered on Aug. 1, 2021: a total of 21,738 cars . As for the 24-hour traffic from Crimea to “mainland Russia,” it peaked on Aug. 20, 2021: 20,260 cars, according to this newspaper. That said, August is traditionally the month of vacations in Russia and that could have been one of the factors behind the latest surge, just like it probably was behind the August 2021 surge.¹ 
• Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the top commander of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said in a statement Aug. 16 that Russian forces were shelling 700 to 800 Ukrainian positions a day in the south and east of Ukraine, expending between 40,000 to 60,000 pieces of ammunition daily. Zaluzhnyi also said in a statement on Aug. 16 that the positioning of Russian missile systems along the Ukrainian border in Belarus “raises concerns.” He specifically cited missiles placed at the Zyabrovka airfield, about 15 miles from the border. (NYT, 08.17.22, NYT, 08.17.22)
• The commander of the Black Sea Fleet has changed. The new commander, Vice Adm. Viktor Sokolov, was introduced to the members of the military council, the interlocutors of the agency said, adding that there was also an order from the commander-in-chief to appoint him. (Meduza, 08.17.22)
• Slipping back and forth across the front lines, Ukraine’s guerrilla fighters, known in Ukraine as partisans, in recent weeks have taken an ever more prominent role in the war, rattling Russian forces by helping deliver humiliating blows in areas they occupy and thought to be safe. (NYT, 08.17.22)
• For Russia, Western trainers of the Ukrainian personnel represent a priority target. Leader of a mobile group of Western trainers, Bradley Crawford, who retired from the U.S. Army infantry as a sergeant first class, says his details were found in the phone of a Russian hit-squad member recently captured in Mykolaiv. (WSJ, 08.17.22)
• Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland promised no new military aid to Ukraine in July. (MT/AFP, 08.18.22)
• According to Ukrainian commanders, the Wagner group's fighters have proven indispensable in Russia's few successes in Donbas. In all, the company, which also operates under the name Liga in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, has opened recruitment centers in 26 Russian cities, and now is expanding its drive to prisons all over Russia as it seeks to replenish its losses. Wagner troops receive 350,000 rubles, equivalent to $5,790, a month, plus premiums of 150,000 to 700,000 rubles depending on mission success and role. (WSJ, 08.18.22)
  • In Russia's detention facilities, inmates are told by Wagner that their convictions would be wiped out after six months of service in Ukraine, even though no such procedure is available under Russian law, said Olga Romanova, head of the Russia Behind Bars prisoner-rights organization. (WSJ, 08.18.22)
• In 2019, the FSB began a major expansion of its Ukraine unit, a group that grew from 30 officers to as many as 160 last summer, according to Ukrainian officials who cited intercepted communications and other intelligence. (WP, 08.19.22)
• In the final days before the invasion of Ukraine, FSB’s Department of Operational Information prepared for an ominous assignment: ensure the decapitation of the Ukrainian government and oversee the installation of a pro-Russian regime. Adhering to erroneous assumptions, the FSB championed a war plan premised on the idea that a lightning assault on Kyiv would topple the government in a matter of days. Zelensky would be dead, captured or in exile, creating a political vacuum for FSB agents to fill. (WP, 08.19.22)
• About 700 contractors have been trying to quit from Russian army’s 64th brigade in recent months. The command of the brigade refuses to withdraw them from the territory of Ukraine, even those whose contracts with the army expired in May. (Istories, 08.19.22)
• BBC Russian Service and Mediazona journalists, together with a team of volunteers, published updated data on the identities of Russian servicemen killed in Ukraine. As of Aug. 19, 5,701 people have been confirmed dead. (Meduza, 08.19.22)
• Overall, Ukraine has detained more than 800 people suspected of aiding Russia through reconnaissance or sabotage, according to Ukraine's Interior Ministry. (WP, 08.19.22) 
• Ukraine’s Defense Minister Reznikov told Voice of America Aug. 17 that Ukraine hasn’t ruled out striking the occupied territory with U.S.-provided weapons. A senior Biden administration official told NatSec Daily the U.S. supports strikes on Crimea if Kyiv deems them necessary. “We don't select targets, of course, and everything we've provided is for self-defense purposes. Any target they choose to pursue on sovereign Ukrainian soil is by definition self-defense,” this person said. (Politico, 08.17.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The German OBI GmbH has sold its Russian stores for 600 rubles. This was announced in an interview with Forbes by Josef Liokumovich, who owns 60% of the company that has bought the stores. (Meduza, 08.15.22)
• A court in Moscow has begun bankruptcy proceedings against RFE/RL’s Russian entity, RFE/RL LLC, after local tax authorities initiated the process earlier this year, a move that prompted the broadcaster to suspend operations in the country. (RFE/RL, 08.15.22)

• In Delaware, where most startups are registered due to effective corporate legislation, companies with Russian roots are in great difficulty. One person told The Bell that back in 2013 he registered a software development startup in Delaware. In May, an agent for Harvard Business Services unexpectedly notified the company that their cooperation was terminated, as its founder is Russian. Then it turned out that the company was blocked by the state of Delaware. (The Bell, 08.15.22)
• Beginning Aug. 15, investors from “countries that are not hostile” will be allowed to trade in Russia’s bond market, the Moscow Exchange said. (NYT, 08.15.22)
• Russians are racing to try and obtain European visas as some countries impose travel restrictions and fears grow that the European Union could ban Russian tourists from the bloc in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 08.17.22)
  • Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said Russian tourist visas would be cut to 10% of current volumes as of Sept. 1. (RFE/RL, 08.16.22)
    • After the decision of the Finnish government to cut the number of tourist visas for Russians, the prices set by mediators for their registration have increased six times from the face value in St. Petersburg. (Fontanka/Meduza, 08.19.22)
  • Latvia's ruling coalition has agreed that temporary residence permits issued to Russians in the country will only be extended in rare cases. (Meduza, 08.16.22)
• A court in Moscow has fined the Telegram and Twitch applications for failing to delete content that the Russian government deems illegal as the Kremlin continues to ramp up pressure on social media networks. (RFE/RL, 08.16.22)
• The United States and other countries are taking action that could officially label Russian diamonds as “conflict diamonds,” claiming their sale helps pay for Russia’s deadly aggression in Ukraine. (NYT, 08.16.22)
• Up to half of Russia's air traffic control staff are currently on temporary leave or have been dismissed. (MT/AFP, 08.17.22)
• Russia saw a 38% fall in smartphone imports in the first half of this year amid the exit of major brands over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 08.17.22)
• Several major Wall Street banks have begun offering to facilitate trades in Russian debt in recent days, according to bank documents seen by Reuters, giving investors another chance to dispose of assets widely seen in the West as toxic. The banks that are in the market now include JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Jefferies Financial Group. European banks have joined Wall Street in allowing clients to trade Russian debt once again after the U.S. Treasury gave the green light. (CNBC, 08.15.22, FT, 08.17.22)
• Starbucks, which employed 2,000 people across its 130 stores in Russia, suspended work and deliveries into Russia on March 10. Stars Coffee, the renamed former Starbucks chain, opened its first coffee shop in central Moscow on Aug. 18. (MT/AFP, 08.19.22)
• The Russia’s Ministry of Justice has updated the list of foreign non-governmental organizations whose activities in Russia are recognized as "undesirable." There are three Canadian organizations on the roster: Ukrainian Canadian Congress; Macdonald-Laurier Institute; Ukrainian National Federation of Canada. (Meduza, 08.19.22)
• Latvia’s security services warned that some of the hundreds of Russian reporters in the country, who fled Russia after it banned critical coverage of its invasion of Ukraine, could be undercover spies. The backlash has paused Latvia’s effort to make Riga a hub for Russia’s independent journalists. (FT, 08.18.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Erdogan has said he is ready to support peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow after he met Zelensky in Lviv. Erdogan, who has acted as an intermediary between Moscow and Kyiv, on Aug. 18 made his first trip to Ukraine since Russia’s full-blown invasion and said he would soon consult with Putin. “The main focus … was how to conclude the war,” Erdogan said. “The international community must take on responsibility to revive the diplomatic process.” (FT, 08.18.22)
• “Now I consider, one way or the other, formally or not, Ukraine has to be treated in the aftermath of this as a member of NATO,” Henry Kissinger told WSJ. Still, he foresees a settlement that preserves Russia’s gains from its initial incursion in 2014, when it seized Crimea and portions of the Donbas region. In a separate interview with CNN, Kissinger said: “There has to be a negotiation and I would warn about letting the war drag on indefinitely. Because then it would become like World War I, leading to escalation, possibly escalation ... The issue that I suggested that was received—they should go back to the line that existed when the war started, which means that Russia would have to give up the sort of 15 to 20% of Ukrainian territory that it captured in this war before a ceasefire.” (WSJ, 08.12.22, CNN, 08.18.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• In his address to participants and guests of the 10th Moscow Conference on International Security, Putin said: “The situation in the world is changing dynamically and the outlines of a multipolar world order are taking shape. An increasing number of countries and peoples are choosing a path of free and sovereign development based on their own distinct identity, traditions and values. These objective processes are being opposed by the Western globalist elites.” (Kremlin.ru, 08.16.22)
• Kissinger told WSJ: “We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to.” In a separate interview with CNN,  Kissinger said: “I think it is important to see whether we—Russia on one level has already lost the war. It has lost the war in the sense that the old idea that Russia could just march into Europe and unfold itself, that has ended, because they can't even defeat Ukraine, so they can't defeat NATO so it's impossible to have a relationship with Russia in which Russia considers itself part of Europe.” (WSJ, 08.12.22, CNN, 08.18.22)
• The sleepy port of Alexandroupoli in northeastern Greece has taken on a central role in increasing the U.S. military presence in Eastern Europe, with the Pentagon transporting enormous arsenals through here in what it describes as the effort to contain Russian aggression. That flow has angered not only Russia but also neighboring Turkey, underlining how war in Ukraine is reshaping Europe's economic and diplomatic relationships. (NYT, 08.19.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Who benefits from worsening relations between the energy guzzling West and Russia? One apparent answer: the state-owned behemoth China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, which posted bumper profits in the first quarter—a strong performance that may have been further inflated by cheap Russian oil. Sinopec's oil and gas production’s earnings before interest and taxes rising rose nearly 300% year over year to 11.5 billion yuan, equivalent to $1.7 billion. (WSJ, 08.15.22)
• Chinese troops will go to Russia to participate in Russia’s annual strategic exercise, which this year will take place in the country’s east. India, Belarus, Mongolia, Tajikistan and other countries will also participate in the Vostok-2022 drills, which will take place from Aug. 30 to Sept. 5. (Global Times, 08.19.22, RM, 08.19.22)
• Russia has risen to third place in the world in terms of the use of the yuan in international trade outside of China. Russia accounted for 3.9% of yuan transactions in July. According to this indicator, only the U.K. (6.35%) and Hong Kong (70.93%) are ahead of it. Back in March, Russia was not on the list at all, and in June it was seventh. The yuan also overtook the dollar for the first time in terms of trading volume on the Moscow Exchange. (Forbes, 08.18.22)
• People involved in preparations for the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, scheduled to take place this year in the Uzbek city of Samarkand on Sept. 15 and 16, said Xi's office signaled this week that he might attend in person, though they cautioned that his plans remain in flux. (WSJ, 08.19.22)
• Xi and Putin have both confirmed they will attend the G-20 summit on the resort island of Bali this November, according to President Joko Widodo, confirming their attendance for the first time. (Al Jazeera, 08.19.22)
• When asked by WSJ if the U.S. could manage China and Russia by triangulating between them, Kissinger offered no simple prescription. “You can’t just now say we’re going to split them off and turn them against each other. All you can do is not to accelerate the tensions and to create options, and for that you have to have some purpose.” In a separate interview with CNN, Kissinger said: “Who would Russia be, sort of an output of China at the edge of Europe. I would aim for the former object. Now, how we achieve in it is not something we're going to settle in the conversation here but this would be my strategic goal.” (WSJ, 08.12.22, CNN, 08.18.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Russia has no military need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Aug. 16. “From a military point of view, there is no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine to achieve the set goals,” Shoigu said. (MT/AFP, 08.16.22)
• Russia’s foreign ministry said Aug. 18 that Moscow would only use its nuclear arsenal in “emergency circumstances” and that it has no interest in a direct confrontation with NATO and the United States. Shoigu on Aug. 16 described media speculation that Moscow might deploy nuclear or chemical weapons in the conflict as “absolute lies.” (Reuters, 08.18.22)
• A Kremlin propagandist with close links to Putin has said that Russia should use nuclear weapons against the West to protect Russian speakers in the Baltic states. Vladimir Solovyov was giving his reaction to restrictions being proposed in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia on Russian citizens and Russian speakers, in response to Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (Newsweek, 08.18.22)
• Some two-thirds of the world could starve to death in the event of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States, according to a Rutgers University-led study published Aug. 15. Nuclear conflict would lead to "catastrophic" disruptions in food supplies, as sun-blocking soot and ash wilt crops around the world, researchers wrote in the peer-reviewed study published in the journal Nature Food. (WP, 08.16.22)

Counterterrorism:

• If the U.S. declares Russia a terrorist state, it would cause “the most serious collateral damage to bilateral diplomatic relations,” Alexander Darchiev, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s department for North America, said. It could result in lowering or breaking off ties entirely, he said, adding, “The U.S. side has been warned.” (NUT, 08.13.22)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• Estonia says it was targeted by "the most extensive cyberattacks since 2007" shortly after removing a Soviet-era monument in a region with a sizeable ethnic Russian majority. Russian hacker group Killnet claimed responsibility for the attack. (RFE/RL, 08.18.22)
• A Russian national sought by U.S. prosecutors for allegedly laundering cryptocurrency tied to a notorious ransomware gang has been extradited to the United States from the Netherlands. Denis Dubnikov made his initial appearance in federal court in Portland on Aug. 17. (RFE/RL, 08.18.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Hungary said Aug. 13 that Russia has started delivering additional gas to the EU member following a July visit to Moscow by its foreign minister. In the first phase, an additional volume of 2.6 million cubic meters per day will arrive from the south through the TurkStream pipeline until the end of August, he said, adding negotiations were underway for September deliveries. (MT, 08.13.22)
• Russian oil production fell in the first weeks of August, ending several months of recovery from Western sanctions imposed over Russia’s war in Ukraine, Kommersant reported Aug. 15. Average daily production so far this month has fallen by 3% compared to July, totaling 1.428 million tons, the publication said, citing unnamed sources familiar with the data. Small oil companies, as well as Gazprom Neft, accounted for 90% of the decrease. (MT/AFP, 08.15.22)
• Germany must cut its gas use by a fifth to avoid a crippling shortage this winter, its top network regulator said, as businesses and households brace themselves for Europe’s biggest energy crisis in a generation. (FT, 08.15.22)
• Germany plans to postpone the closure of the country's last three nuclear power plants as it braces for a possible shortage of energy this winter after Russia throttled gas supplies to the country, said German government officials. (WSJ, 08.16.22)
• European natural gas prices soared to a new height of above $2,700 per 1,000 cubic meters on Aug. 16, as a number of factors coincided to drive up demand and constrain supply, ratcheting up pressure on Europe’s leaders in their standoff with Moscow. (BNE, 08.17.22)
• Because of soaring energy bills, Slovalco aluminum smelter in Slovakia, majority owned by Norsk Hydro, will close primary production by the end of September and affect 300 full-time jobs. The shutdown follows a similar decision a day earlier to cease output at a zinc smelter in the Netherlands. (FT, 08.17.22)
• Russia forecasts energy export revenues to rise this year by nearly $100 billion as higher commodity prices offset a decrease in volumes, Reuters reports, citing government documents. Russia's Economy Ministry now expects energy export revenue to reach $338 billion in 2022, up more than a third from $244 billion last year. (RFE/RL, 08.18.22)
• Uniper, Germany's largest importer of natural gas, reported on Aug. 17 a loss of more than 12 billion euros (or $12.2 billion) for the first half of the year as the company coped with dwindling supplies of natural gas provided by Russia. Uniper said the losses were a direct result of having to pay inflated prices for gas on the open market in order to make up for the Russian shortfall. (NYT, 08.18.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The U.S. and Russia are discussing a prisoner exchange that would involve trading a notorious Russian arms trafficker for an American basketball star, a Russian diplomat said Aug. 13. It marked the first time that Russia has said the talks concerned exchanging Viktor Bout, known as the "Merchant of Death," for two-time Olympian Brittney Griner. (MT, 08.13.22)
• U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner, who was found guilty of drug possession and trafficking in Russia, has appealed her nine-year jail sentence, her lawyers said Aug. 15. (MT/AFP, 08.15.22)
• Dan Rapoport, an American stockbroker, who made a fortune in the Russian market in the 1990s and 2000s and later co-founded a posh Moscow nightclub before leaving the country, died after being found lying on a sidewalk in Washington, police said. A preliminary police report said officers responded to a report of a “jumper” on the evening of Aug. 14, and the man, later identified as Rapoport, was taken to a nearby hospital, where he was declared dead. (RFE/RL, 08.18.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development is preparing a revised macroeconomic forecast for 2022, revising the GDP decline to 4.2% from the previously forecast 7.8% contraction. (BNE, 08.18.22)
• Russia registered more than 33,000 new cases of COVID-19 on Aug. 17, a five-month high. The authorities of Buryatia have decided to introduce a mask regime on the territory of the republic due to the increase in infections. (Meduza, 08.15.22, RFE/RL, 08.18.22)
• In a new decree, Putin introduced the title of "Mother Heroine" to be awarded to Russian citizens who have given birth to and raised 10 or more children who are Russian citizens. (Meduza, 08.16.22)
• Moscow has been canceling en masse the registration of opposition candidates for municipal elections next month as the Kremlin clamps down on dissent. (RFE/RL, 08.14. 22) 
• Zakhar Prilepin, co-chairman of the Just Russia - For Truth party, plans to stand as a candidate in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2024. (Meduza, 08.15.22)
• Jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny on Aug. 16 called for systematic punitive measures against Russian oligarchs supporting Putin and his military operation in Ukraine. In a lengthy social media post, he said that Western sanctions—by the United States, European Union or the United Kingdom—have only targeted 46 of the Forbes list of Russia's 200 richest people. (MT/AFP, 08.17.22)
• Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska has filed a lawsuit against Navalny, his team and several foreign entities over an investigative report they produced about alleged corruption links between the tycoon and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. (RFE/RL, 08.18.22)
• A Russian paratrooper who condemned his country's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine after taking part in the war has fled Russia. France-based human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin said on Aug. 17 that he and his team helped Pavel Filatyev to "urgently" leave Russia. (RFE/RL, 08.18.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia on Aug. 18 relocated three warplanes equipped with hypersonic missiles to its exclave of Kaliningrad on the coast of the Baltic Sea. On Aug. 18, "three Mig-31i aircraft with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were relocated to the Chkalovsk airfield in the Kaliningrad region," Russia's Defense Ministry said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 08.18.22)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The FSB reported on the death of two Russians who, on alleged instructions of the Ukrainian special services, were preparing to blow up an oil pipeline in the Volgograd region. According to the FSB, the two men were associated with the right-wing radical group Restrukt, created by nationalist Maxim Martsinkevich (Tesak). During the arrest, they offered armed resistance and died. The FSB found a home-made high-powered bomb and two traumatic pistols converted to fire live ammunition on the suspects. (Media Zone, 08.15.22)
• Russia’s FSB has published a new draft order that would expand the list of types of information that could be “used to threaten the security of the Russian Federation” if given to foreign entities. The document proposes adding information about the “transfer, transportation routes, and movement” of Russian troops to the list. The current version of the list refers only to “information about the deployment, organizational structure, armament, and number" of troops. (Meduza, 08.18.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Kingdom Holding, one of Saudi Arabia’s highest-profile investors, poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Russian energy firms shortly before and after the invasion of Ukraine this year. The roughly $500 million investments included $364 million in Gazprom in February, with the rest going into Rosneft and Lukoil that month and in March. (FT, 08.14.22)
• From May to July, Turkish exports to Russia were worth $2.04 billion, $642 million higher than in those same months in 2021, according to export data compiled by the trade ministry and the Turkish Statistical Institute. For last month alone, the value of exports to Russia increased 75% year on year, from $417 million in July 2021 to $730 million The $313 million rise between July 2021 and July 2022 was the largest for any country that Turkey exports to. Russia’s share of Turkey’s total exports in July was 3.9%, up from 2.6% 12 months earlier. (FT, 08.16.22)
• Putin on Aug. 15 promoted Russian weapons to his foreign allies, saying they had all been tested on the field of battle. "We are ready to offer allies and partners the most modern types of weapons—from small arms to armored vehicles and artillery, combat aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles," Putin said in televised remarks at the opening of a military forum outside Moscow. (MT/AFP, 08.16.22)
• A district court in Moscow has postponed for one month its hearing of a Justice Ministry request to close down the Russian offices of a prominent Jewish nongovernmental organization. The Basmanny District Court on Aug. 19 granted a request by the Jewish Agency for Israel for a one-month delay in the proceedings, during which the organization said it would respond to the government’s complaints. (RFE/RL, 08.19.22)

Ukraine:

• The Team Spirit team, which includes cyber athletes from Russia and Ukraine, beat the PSG.LGD team from China with a score of 3:1 in the grand final of the international Dota 2 tournament-PGL Arlington Major 2022, according to Сybersport.ru. (Meduza, 08.15.22)
• According to a Rating Group poll conducted in Ukraine in July, 88% of survey respondents said they trust the president “mostly” or “completely,” a sharp shift from the 20% who felt that way last December. (WP, 08.15.22)
• According to Meduza's calculations, Russia now controls 60.25% of the Donetsk region, and this figure has hardly been growing lately—a month ago the figure was 59.7%. Despite this, according to two Meduza sources close to the Kremlin, the presidential administration has not yet given up on the idea of holding referendums in the fall on the annexation of the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR, as well as the occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. (Meduza, 08.18.22)
• Until this week, Ukrainians seemed to see Zelensky as beyond reproach, a national hero who stayed in Kyiv despite the risk to his personal safety to lead his country against invading Russian troops. Comments he made to The Washington Post justifying his failure to share with Ukrainians details of repeated U.S. warnings that Russia planned to invade have punctured the bubble, triggering a cascade of public criticism unprecedented since the war began. (WP, 08.19.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Latvia now considers the Belarus and Russian borders as one and the same, Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said, and officials here closely watch what's happening on the other side with the aid of intelligence provided by the United States and other partners. (WP, 08.13.22)
• Kazakh authorities have raised the death toll resulting from January anti-government unrest that rocked the county to 238, adding six more people who died in police custody to the overall tally. (RFE/RL, 08.16.22)
• Tajik prosecutors are seeking a life sentence for retired Maj. Gen. Kholbash Kholbashov for his alleged role in organizing deadly protests in the Gorno-Badakhshan region in May, a charge human rights organizations have called "bogus." (RFE/RL, 08.16.22)
• Estonian authorities have moved to demolish and relocate Soviet-era World War II memorials in the border city of Narva, a decision that earlier sparked warnings and protests from Moscow. (RFE/RL, 08.16.22)
• Emergency officials said the death toll from a fire triggered by an apparent fireworks explosion in Yerevan rose to 16, as searchers continued to look for victims and survivors. (RFE/RL, 08.16.22)
• Uzbekistan and Switzerland have agreed on the return by Swiss authorities of $131 million in assets seized during criminal proceedings against Gulnara Karimova, the daughter of longtime Uzbek President Islam Karimov. (RFE/RL, 08.16.22)
• On Aug. 16, Russian-Tajik consultations were held in Dushanbe in an interdepartmental format on issues of ensuring biological safety. The implementation of the bilateral intergovernmental Memorandum of Understanding on issues of ensuring biological safety, including specific areas for further cooperation, was discussed. Particular attention was paid to military biological activities on the territory of Ukraine. (Mid.ru, 08.19.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• "In oil, Putin typically relies on advice, on consensus building," Gabuev said. "In gas, he's always been the ultimate decision maker." (WSJ, 08.12.22.)

 

V. Useful charts

• “Do you support or oppose the law on criminalizing false information about the actions of the Russian military within the framework of the special operations?” (Source: Levada Center poll conducted on June 23-29, 2022.) 

Fully support	53%
Rather support than not	26%
Rather oppose than not	8%
Categorically oppose	6%
Difficult to say	7%

Footnotes

1. Italicized text is contextual commentary by RM staff.