This Week’s Highlights

• Fires continued to burn in the area around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant as of April 10. Radiation counts near the fire have registered 2.3 microsievert per hour, a spike from the typical 0.14 μSv/h, according to Live Science. According to police, a 27-year-old resident of the Rahivka village told investigators that he had set some garbage and grass on fire "for fun," RFE/RL reports.
• There have been 10 cases of Rosatom employees displaying symptoms of COVID-19, of which "at least one" had tested positive, Rosatom director general Alexey Likhachov said. "If the epidemiological situation in the regions allows, then we plan to enter the usual mode of activity before the end of April. But I would stress that this decision should be taken individually at each enterprise and in close cooperation,” he said, according to World Nuclear News.
• Moscow's hospitals and ambulance service are working at peak capacity after a sharp rise in those hospitalized with serious coronavirus complications, AFP reports. The capital has the largest outbreak in Russia, with 7,822 confirmed coronavirus cases out of a national total of almost 12,000. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin warned that "we are more in the foothills of this peak, not even in the middle.”
• China will do everything possible to help Russia in the fight against COVID-19, according to Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui. "We won’t forget our friends who helped us," he said, according ot TASS. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Russian cases account for one-third of all the confirmed coronavirus infections China has detected in people traveling from other countries in April.
• G20 energy ministers held virtual talks April 10 as major oil producers scrambled to finalize output cuts to shore up prices, with Mexico announcing a deal with the U.S. that could end an impasse, AFP reports. Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed in principle April 9 to lead a 23-nation coalition in massive oil production cuts. However, Mexico abruptly exited the talks, jeopardizing a final pact. The deal would cut 10 million barrels a day of production, or roughly 10 percent of global supply, according to FT. U.S. and Canadian officials are discussing the imposition of tariffs on Saudi Arabian and Russian oil imports if they do not quickly reach a deal to end their price war, the Financial Times reports.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 10 said he will have more discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump about battling the coronavirus and its effects on the economy. Putin told the U.S.-Russian crew aboard the International Space Station that the ISS is "an example of an effective partnership of our countries" as the world fights the pandemic, according to AFP.
• The United States has branded Russian far-right group Russian Imperial Movement as a foreign terrorist organization, the first time it has targeted white supremacists with tools regularly used against jihadist groups, AFP reports.  

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Fires continued to burn in the area around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant as of April 10. “There is bad news—in the center of the fire, radiation is above normal,” Egor Firsov, head of Ukraine’s ecological inspection service, wrote. Radiation counts near the fire have registered 2.3 microsievert per hour, a spike from the typical 0.14 μSv/h, according to Live Science. The police said on April 6 that a 27-year-old resident of the Rahivka village told investigators that he had set some garbage and grass on fire "for fun." (Bellona, 04.06.20, RFE/RL, 04.06.20, RBC.ua, 04.10.20, Space.com, 04.10.20)
• There have been 10 cases of Rosatom employees displaying symptoms of COVID-19, of which "at least one" had tested positive, Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachov said in a video-address to the corporation's employees on April 4. "If the epidemiological situation in the regions allows, then we plan to enter the usual mode of activity before the end of April. But I would stress that this decision should be taken individually at each enterprise and in close cooperation,” he said. "Projects abroad will go as planned," he said. (World Nuclear News, 04.07.20)
• Rosatom has for the first time used a new device that it says performs all types of non-destructive testing automatically and without the use of a polar crane and a reloading machine. The "modular delivery manipulator," guided by a television monitoring system, was employed at unit one of the Kalinin nuclear power plant to inspect the reactor vessel and internal components. (World Nuclear News, 04.08.20)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• No significant developments.

NATO-Russia relations:

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

• The U.S. on April 6 branded Russian far-right group Russian Imperial Movement as a foreign terrorist organization, the first time it has targeted white supremacists with tools regularly used against jihadist groups. The State Department said that the Russian Imperial Movement runs two paramilitary training camps in St. Petersburg and has pulled in neo-Nazis from across the Western world. (AFP, 04.06.20)
• Terrorist organizations are not abandoning their attempts to relocate terrorists from Syria and Iraq to Russia, Secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said on a video conference. Russian security services prevented five terror attacks in the Ural Federal District in 2019, he said. (TASS, 04.10.20, Interfax, 04.10.20)

Conflict in Syria:

• A U.N. board of inquiry investigating attacks on civilian establishments in Syria, including hospitals, has refrained from directly holding Russia responsible, according to a summary of its report published April 6. Without mentioning Russia, the investigation concluded that in four out of the seven cases studied by the board "the government of Syria and/or its allies had carried out the airstrike." (AFP, 04.06.20)
• Russian and Turkish troops have conducted another joint patrol of several populated areas in the al-Hasakah province. Russian military police units have also patrolled the provinces of Aleppo and al-Hasakah.(Interfax, 04.10.20)

Cyber security:

• The creation of a wireless closed segment of data transmission (ZSPD or military internet) has been completed in the Arctic. It connected autonomous Arctic island and continental bases between themselves and with the mainland. The network provides high-speed data exchange at distances of hundreds and thousands kilometers, Russian Defense Ministry sources said. (TASS, 04.08.20)

Elections interference:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• G20 energy ministers held virtual talks April 10 as major oil producers scrambled to finalize output cuts to shore up prices, with Mexico announcing a deal with the U.S. that could end an impasse. Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed in principle April 9 to lead a 23-nation coalition in massive oil production cuts. But following over 11 hours of negotiations, Mexico abruptly exited the talks, jeopardizing a final pact. The deal would cut 10 million barrels a day of production, or roughly 10 percent of global supply. The cuts would diminish over time, ending in April 2022, according to the plan. Russia will have to cut oil output by 1.8 million bpd under the OPEC+ deal. (Interfax, 04.10.20, AFP, 04.10.20, Wall Street Journal, 04.10.20, Financial Times, 04.10.20, Financial Times, 04.10.20)
• U.S. and Canadian officials are discussing the imposition of tariffs on Saudi Arabian and Russian oil imports if the two members of the OPEC+ group do not quickly reach a deal to end their price war. U.S. President Donald Trump said on April 5 he would “absolutely” impose tariffs on oil imports if Russia and Saudi Arabia cannot reach an agreement to cut crude oil production. U.S. production of crude oil will fall 13 percent by year's end, according to a government forecast April 7. (Wall Street Journal, 04.08.20, RFE/RL, 04.06.20, Financial Times, 04.04.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russia's President Vladimir Putin on April 10 said he will have more discussions with Trump about battling the coronavirus and its effects on the economy. Putin told the U.S.-Russian crew aboard the International Space Station that the ISS is "an example of an effective partnership of our countries" as the world fights the pandemic. (AFP, 04.10.20)
  • U.S. astronaut Christopher Cassidy and Russian cosmonauts Anatoly Ivanishin and Ivan Vagner have blased off to the ISS. (RFE/RL, 04.09.20)
  • Russia’s space agency Roscosmos has denounced Trump’s order allowing commercial lunar mining and the extraction of other resources in space, appearing to liken the policy to colonialism. (The Moscow Times, 04.07.20)
• The next week may decide if anything will change for American Paul Whelan, the 50-year-old former Marine, who denies the spying accusations in Russia. Whelan's trial is scheduled to begin April 6 in Moscow City Court. Whelan's Russian lawyer, Vladimir Zherebenkov, said he expected the date to be further postponed because of lockdowns amid the coronavirus pandemic. (The Washington Post, 04.10.20)
• Russia and Qatar have denied fresh allegations of paying millions of dollars in bribes for the rights to host World Cup soccer tournaments. According to a new U.S. Justice Department indictment, FIFA officials received bribes to vote in favor of awarding the 2018 tournament to Russia and the 2022 tournament to Qatar. Investigations and rumors have long surrounded both awards, but the indictment released on April 6 added new direct, formal allegations regarding both tournaments. (RFE/RL, 04.07.20)
• The Russian Prosecutor-General’s Office has added the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based global research and analysis group, to its list of undesirable organizations. (RFE/RL, 04.09.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Moscow's hospitals and ambulance service are working at peak capacity after a sharp rise in those hospitalized with serious coronavirus complications. The capital has the largest outbreak in Russia, with 7,822 confirmed coronavirus cases out of a national total of almost 12,000. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin warned that the epidemic was not even close to its peak. "I can tell you for sure: there hasn't been any peak yet. We are more in the foothills of this peak, not even in the middle," he said. (AFP, 04.10.20)
• Russia burned through $7 billion of its foreign exchange reserves in March as a plunge in oil prices caused by the coronavirus pandemic sent the ruble tumbling and emerging economies around the world sought to prop up their currencies during the sharp sell-off. (Financial Times, 04.10.20)
• Putin has announced a new aid package to doctors battling the coronavirus pandemic and ordered support for small businesses suffering under his paid “non-working” month in his third public address in as many weeks. Putin also granted a six-month deferment on insurance premiums and taxes, except for VAT, for small and medium businesses. He allowed them to repay the accumulated debts in monthly installments for a year or more. (The Moscow Times, 04.08.29)
• The Russian government was on April 6 to begin sending money to its nationals stranded abroad, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced as countries including Russia have shut borders and grounded flights to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Russia earlier paused the evacuation of tens of thousands of its citizens stuck overseas due to the pandemic. Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said that there are more than 30,000 Russian citizens currently abroad while Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova said about 26,000 are seeking to be evacuated. (RFE/RL, 04.05.20, The Moscow Times, 04.06.20).
• Moscow is planning to track foreign tourists' movements through smartphone geolocation for coronavirus prevention after Russia reopens its national borders, Kommersant reported. (The Moscow Times, 04.09.20)
• Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region boosted its coronavirus-control measures April 4 by adding a system of downloadable QR codes in the latest attempt to use tracking technology to battle the pandemic. (The Washington Post, 04.04.20)
• The virus’ impact has been “extremely negative,” Roscosmos general director Dmitry Rogozin said, cutting off normal interactions with European space agencies and necessitating strict quarantines on the company’s engineering centers and spaceport. (Financial Times, 04.10.20)
• Russia's Finance Ministry said April 10 it has bought a controlling stake in Sberbank Rossia for 2.14 trillion rubles ($29 billion) from the country's central bank. The government tapped its sovereign wealth fund, funded by oil revenue, to purchase the central bank's 50 percent holding in Sberbank, Russia's largest lender. The transfer of one additional share will be completed by May 6. (Wall Street Journal, 04.10.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia supplied $15 billion worth of defense equipment abroad in 2019, Putin said at the meeting of the Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation. The Russia-Africa summit held last year gave a good impetus for development of military and technical cooperation, he said. "New contracts totaling about $1 billion were signed with African states," the Putin said. (TASS, 04.09.20)

• Russia's Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops focus on carrying out preventive measures and the timely identification of coronavirus-infected persons. A large-scale, complex and preventive disinfection, during which over 22,000 buildings and facilities, and the areas adjacent to military units have been disinfected, was undertaken in military units and organizations of the Armed Forces on March 28-29. (Interfax, 04.08.20)
• In the Russian Armed Forces, coronavirus patients are to undergo treatment at 32 hospitals designed for 4,900 patients in total. (Interfax, 04.07.20)
• The Russian military is taking part in the development of a coronavirus vaccine, Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Forces Commander Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov said at a meeting hosted by the Russian Defense Ministry on April 7. (Interfax, 04.08.20)
• Russia could stage its annual celebration of the Soviet victory in World War II without veterans because of coronavirus next month. (The Moscow Times, 04.06.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russian special-operations forces have been rushed to a prison in the Irkutsk region of Siberia to quell a riot, human rights activists have reported. Videos posted to social media show buildings on fire as prisoners assert that they are being "murdered." (RFE/RL, 04.10.20)
• Authorities have detained a group of shooting-sport enthusiasts in Far East Russia on charges of terrorism under the guise of testing its alleged leader for coronavirus. (The Moscow Times, 04.07.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian military specialists on a COVID-19 fighting mission in Italy have helped disinfect retirement homes in 43 populated localities in Lombardy, the Russian Defense Ministry said. (Interfax, 04.10.20)
• Russian servicemen have decontaminated over 60,000 square meters of indoor areas in Serbia, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced. (TASS, 04.06.20)
• A modest investment by EBRD Russian travel company Travelata may prove to be the sanctions dambuster that the Kremlin has been longing for. “This is actually a huge deal and may smash the sanctions dam and open the floodgates,” a former EBRD banker told bne IntelliNews. (bne IntelliNews, 04.10.20)
• Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant has signed a 10-year contract with the Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority for the supply of low-enriched nuclear fuel components, such as uranium and aluminium items, for the ETRR-2 research reactor. NCCP is a subsidiary of Russian nuclear fuel manufacturer TVEL. (World Nuclear News, 04.06.20)
• Poland held a scaled-back memorial on April 10 for the air crash that killed former President Lech Kaczynski and dozens of others in Russia a decade ago. (AFP, 04.10.20)
• Russia said it would launch a criminal investigation on April 10 after Czech officials removed a statue of a Soviet-era general in Prague. The bronze statue of Soviet Marshal Ivan Konev was taken down last week to make way for a World War II memorial, prompting the Russian embassy to protest. (AFP, 04.10.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• China will do everything possible to help Russia in the fight against COVID-19, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said in a column published by the Argumenty i Fakty newspaper. "We won’t forget our friends who helped us. We are ready to do everything possible to help them overcome this crisis. We will express our full gratitude for helping us during a difficult time," he said. (TASS, 04.08.20)
• China is facing a wave of coronavirus infections from Russia, with more than half of the country’s total imported cases in the past two days coming through its northeastern land border. Heilongjiang, China’s northernmost province that borders Russia, has reported 60 imported cases this month. All but one entered the Chinese border by car or coach from the nearby Russian city of Vladivostok. The Russian cases account for one-third of all the confirmed coronavirus infections China has detected in people traveling from other countries in April.  (Bloomberg, 04.07.20)

Ukraine:

• On April 3, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers released its new economic forecast for this year: a 4.8 percent drop in GDP and a loss 250,000 jobs. Inflation will hit 11.6 percent—double the pre-coronavirus forecast. The average inflation-adjusted wage will fall by 4.5 percent, compared to last year. A 3 percent GDP drop is the consensus forecast of Reuters monthly poll of analysts, also released April 3. (Ukraine Business News, 04.06.20)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has discussed in a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo how to obtain loan guarantees from the U.S. to stabilize the economy. Zelenskiy thanked the U.S. for the $1.2 million help in the fight against COVID-19 and wished the U.S. to successfully overcome the pandemic. (Interfax 04.06.20)
• Attorney General William Barr said Trump was right to fire the inspector general for the U.S. intelligence community who became a key figure in the president's impeachment proceedings last year. In a Fox News interview that aired April 9, Barr said the watchdog, Michael Atkinson, had overstepped his authority by pushing to tell Congress about a whistleblower's complaint concerning Trump's dealings with Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 04.10.20)
• The IMF has praised the Ukrainian parliament's adoption of legislation on banking and land reforms that could unlock billions of dollars in loans. Ukraine has been in talks with the IMF for months about a three-year, $5.5 billion loan tied to reforms to help the country meet a spike in debt repayments this year. (RFE/RL, 03.04.20)
• Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country have agreed to another prisoner swap ahead of Orthodox Easter celebrations. The talks led to "fundamental agreements on the lists for the mutual release of detained persons" no later than Orthodox Easter on April 19, according to a statement on Zelenskiy's website. (RFE/RL, 04.09.20)

 

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Azerbaijan’s economy is expected by the World Bank to contract by 0.2 percent in 2020. The international financial institute last October forecast 2020 GDP growth of 2.3 percent for Azerbaijan. The new World Bank estimate for 2020 economic output in Armenia is 1.7 percent, provided a recovery from the COVID-19 shock starts in mid-summer, versus the 5.1 percent it previously anticipated. Looking at Georgia, the World Bank’s latest analysis shows it only eking out GDP growth of 0.1 percent in 2020 (compared to the 5 percent the bank forecast last October). (bne IntelliNews, 04.09.20)
• In the March 31 election for the de facto president of Karabakh, former prime minister Arayik Harutyunyan got 49.6 percent of the vote, beating out the territory’s current de facto foreign minister, Masis Mayilyan and setting up a runoff. Then Mayilyan announced that he was effectively dropping out of the second round, which had been scheduled for April 14. (Eurasianet, 04.06.20)
• Kazatomprom expects Kazakhstan's 2020 annual uranium production volume to decrease by up to 4,000 tU from previous expectations as the company introduces measures to comply with COVID-19 lockdown requirements. (World Nuclear News, 04.07.20)
• A British court has dismissed an attempt by the country's National Crime Agency to seize a luxurious London mansion and two other properties linked to the family of former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev. (RFE/RL, 04.08.20)
• A United Nations review of Uzbekistan's human rights record expresses concerns about persistent torture in detention centers and limits on basic freedoms, according to Human Rights Watch. (RFE/RL, 04.09.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.