5 Things to Know

1. In the past month, the Russian Armed Forces (VSRF) have gained 48 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) have re-gained 5 square miles, according to the April 30, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. According to the Ukrainian top brass, the Russian grouping in eastern Ukraine have continued this week to try to capture the Donetsk region town of Chasiv Yar by May 9 per orders from Moscow, while also gearing up for a major offensive in late May or early June to try to make gains in the neighboring regions of Sumy or Kharkiv. Outgunned and outmanned, ZSU’s grouping in the east will probably abandon Chasiv Yar sooner or later, opening the way for further advances by VSRF; however, the latter lack personnel to take a major city, according to deputy chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky. Like Skibitsky, DNI Avril Haines sees potential for some advances by Russia, warning of VSRF’s “tactical breakthroughs along the front lines in areas such as Donetsk and Kharkiv.” Haines believes “the war is unlikely to end anytime soon,” while Skibitsky believes meaningful negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to end the war can only begin in the second half of 2025.
2. Over the past week, Ukraine has continued to target Russian energy infrastructure despite calls by the U.S. to refrain from doing so. On April 27, Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had shot down 66 Ukrainian drones over the Krasnodar region. Regional authorities said two oil refineries were among the drones’ targets, while the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said the Ukrainian military operation had targeted the Ilsky and Slavyansk oil refineries, according to NYT. Earlier this month, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries risk impacting global energy markets, urging Kyiv to focus on military targets instead, according to Bloomberg.  
3. While Ukraine continues to push for an all-out seizure of Russia’s assets frozen by the West, G-7 officials say privately that is no longer on the table, according to FT.Instead, these officials are exploring alternative ways of extracting funding from the frozen assets, such as using those reserves as collateral to raise debt for Ukraine, this U.K. newspaper reported this week.
4. U.S. intelligence assesses that Russia and China are working more closely together on military issues, including a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to Bloomberg. “We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together in relation to Taiwan and recognizing that this is a place where China definitely wants Russia to be working with them, and we see no reason why they wouldn’t,” DNI Avril Haines said in her May 2 testimony to Congress. Underscoring his firm commitment to alignment with China, Putin is planning to visit China on May 15-16 in what would be his first trip following his fifth presidential inauguration on May 7, according to Bloomberg.
5. The largest Western banks that remain in Russia paid the Kremlin more than €800 ($861) million in taxes last year, a fourfold increase on prewar levels, FT reported. The payments were made despite these banks’ promises to minimize their Russian exposure. The seven top European banks by assets in Russia—Raiffeisen Bank International, UniCredit, ING, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo and OTP—reported a combined profit of more than €3 billion in 2023, according to FT.  

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia shipped more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to North Korea in March in defiance of U.N. sanctions, the White House said May 2. The U.S. is preparing sanctions to target those aiding such transfers between Russia and North Korea and will coordinate its actions with other international partners, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. (FT, 05.02.24)
• U.N. experts, having examined the wreckage of the missile that hit Kharkiv on Jan. 2, came to the conclusion that it was produced in the DPRK, a ballistic missile of the Hwasong-11 series, according to a report prepared by experts. The information on the missile’s trajectory, provided by the Ukrainian side, “indicates that it was launched from the territory of the Russian Federation.” If North Korea’s missile shipment to Russia is confirmed, the report said, it would be a violation of sanctions imposed on North Korea by the U.N. Security Council in 2006. (Meduza, 04.30.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Nearly 3,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war have been released from Russia in prisoner exchanges since the 2022 invasion began. More than 10,000 more remain in Russian custody, some of whom have endured two years of conditions that a United Nations expert described as horrific. Russia’s torture of prisoners of war has been well documented by the United Nations, with former inmates speaking of relentless beatings, electric shocks, rape, sexual violence and mock executions. (NYT, 04.28.24)
• Human Rights Watch released a report on May 2 in which it confirmed that Russian forces have executed at least 15 surrendering Ukrainian soldiers since December 2023. (ISW, 05.02.24) 

• The U.S. State Department has accused Russia of using chloropicrin — one of the chemicals widely used as a poison gas in World War I — against Ukrainian troops in violation of the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention. Washington did not specify where or when Russian forces allegedly used the compound. (Meduza, 05.03.24)

• On April 26, authorities in Kyiv urgently evacuated two hospitals, including a children’s hospital, after the head of the Belarusian KGB claimed “terrorists” were being treated there—an accusation that Ukrainian officials called “a lie and provocation,” but which set off fears of an imminent attack. (WP, 04.26.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces have gained 48 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 5 square miles, according to the April 30, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force, 04.30.24)
  • “The situation at the front has worsened,” Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s top commander, said in a statement on April 27 in which he announced that his troops had retreated from the villages of Berdychi and Semenivka west of Avdiivka and another village further south. This week Russia has confirmed its military "fully liberated the settlement of Berdychi” which is located in the Donetsk region. Syrskiy also said the most difficult conditions are in the Donetsk region’s Pokrovsk and Kurakhove districts. (MT/AFP, 05.02.24, NYT, 04.29.24, RFE/RL, 04.28.24)
  • Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said Ukraine’s immediate concern is its high-ground stronghold in the town of Chasiv Yar. It is probably a matter of time before that city falls, the general said in an interview published May 2. Looking at a wider horizon, the intelligence chief suggests Russia is gearing up for an assault around the Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the northeast. He said Russia has a total of 514,000 land troops committed to the Ukrainian operation. This is “not enough” for an operation to take a major city, he says, but could be enough for a smaller task. He assumes Russia’s main push will begin at the “end of May or beginning of June” and May will be the key month. (Economist, 05.02.24)
    • “We are trying everything we can do to stop the Russian plan to capture Chasiv Yar before May 9,” commander of Ukraine’s ground forces Oleksandr Pavliuk said in an interview published May 2. “But the Russians have a ten-to-one ratio of artillery superiority there, and total air superiority.” “With good air defenses and long-range artillery, we could retake this strategic superiority from the Russians on the battlefield,” the general said. (The Times of London, 05.02.24.)
    • Russia is intensifying its efforts to seize Chasiv Yar. Up to 25,000 Russian troops have been deployed near the town in recent weeks, according to Ukraine’s ground forces. In other flashpoints along the frontline, Moscow’s army is also pressing ahead, seeking to capture as much territory as it can before the arrival of Western kit. Chasiv Yar is seen as a key prize for Moscow, with senior Ukrainian commanders claiming the Russian general staff has ordered its forces to seize it by May 9 when Russia celebrates the end of World War II. (FT, 05.01.24)

  • "We are approaching a new stage of the war. The occupiers are preparing to attempt to expand offensive actions,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was quoted on May 3 as warning. (RM, 05.03.24)

  • Right now, Russia is making slow but steady progress on the battlefield, “with the potential for tactical breakthroughs along the front lines in areas such as Donetsk and Kharkiv,” Avril Haines, the director of U.S. national intelligence, told Congress on May 2. She said Russian President Vladimir Putin sees domestic and international developments going in Putin’s favor, making it likely he will press on with actions in Ukraine and that he is “reconstituting” Russia’s strength. "Putin's increasingly aggressive tactics against Ukraine, such as strikes on Ukraine's electricity infrastructure, are intended to impress Ukraine that continuing to fight will only increase the damage to Ukraine and offer no plausible path to victory," she said. "These aggressive tactics are likely to continue and the war is unlikely to end anytime soon,” she predicted (Sky News, 05.03.24, (Air and Space Forces, 05.02.24,  NYT, 05.03.24)
  • A confidential U.S. military assessment this week concluded that Russia would continue to make marginal gains in the east and southeast leading up to May 9, the Victory Day holiday, a senior U.S. official said. However, it concluded that the Ukrainian military would not collapse completely along the front lines despite the severe ammunition shortages, the official said. Other American officials do not believe Russia has the forces to make a major push before May 9. That would require a large buildup of forces that American officials so far have not seen. (NYT, 05.03.24)
• On the night of April 26-27, Russia launched a "massive" missile strike at Ukraine, damaging four power plants in the latest barrage targeting the country's energy supply, officials in Kyiv. The Ukrainian Air Force said its air defense teams had intercepted 21 of the 34 Russian cruise and ballistic missiles fired from land, air and sea-based systems, but the attack caused extensive damage to four thermal power plants and other critical parts of the power grid in three regions. Before the attack Russia had already destroyed 80% of Ukraine’s thermal power generation capacity, energy officials said. (NYT, 04.27.24, MT, 04.27.24)
• On April 27, Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had shot down 66 Ukrainian drones over the Krasnodar region. The regional authorities said the drones targeted two oil refineries, a bitumen plant and a military airfield in Kuban. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said the Ukrainian military operation had targeted the Kushchevsk airfield and the Ilsky and Slavyansk oil refineries. (NYT, 04.27.24)

  • Earlier this month, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries risk impacting global energy markets and urged the country to focus on military targets instead, according to Bloomberg. (RM, 05.03.24) 

  • “Ukraine has the right to strike legitimate military targets outside the territory of their country to defend itself,” Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary general, said this month when asked about strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities. (NYT, 04.27.24)
• On April 26-27, a Russian missile left a large crater next to a psychiatric hospital in the city of Kharkiv. The blast wounded one patient. According to authorities, there were dozens of people in the damaged building but hundreds in other parts of the medical compound when Russia struck with an S-300 missile. (RFE/RL, 04.27.24)
• On April 27-28, Russia shot down 17 Ukrainian drones in several western regions, the defense ministry said. "The air defense systems intercepted and destroyed seventeen Ukrainian UAVs," the ministry said in a Telegram post. Most of the drones were shot down in regions that border Ukraine, with nine downed in Bryansk, three in Kursk and two in Belgorod, according to the ministry. (MT/AFP, 04.28.24)
• On April 29, the Russian Defense Ministry said its forces captured a village in Ukraine's eastern region of Donetsk, and is advancing westwards as depleted and outgunned Ukrainian forces retreat. "Units of the Center Group of Forces liberated the village of [Semenivka] in...Donetsk," the ministry said on Telegram. Ukraine has not commented on the claim, which could not be independently verified. (RFE/RL, 04.29.24)
• On April 29, a Russian missile attack on the Black Sea port city of Odesa killed five people and injured 32, the regional governor said. He reported later that another man died of a stroke suffered as a result of the attack. (RFE/RL, 04.29.24)
• On April 30, a Ukrainian Army spokesman told RFE/RL that Russia used a cluster bomb in a deadly attack on a law school dubbed "Harry Potter's Castle" in Odesa. Among the wounded was a pregnant woman, a small child and a former pro-Russian politician once awarded a state honor by Putin. An RFE/RL reporter on the scene said that at least five people were killed and dozens injured. (RFE/RL, 04.30.24)
• On April 30, two people were killed and six wounded in a Russian strike on Kharkiv, regional head Oleh Synyehubov said. (RFE/RL, 04.30.24)
• On April 30, Russia's Defense Ministry said that its forces shot down six U.S.-supplied missiles launched by Ukraine, with Moscow-backed officials in annexed Crimea claiming some of the weapons were downed over the Black Sea peninsula. (MT, 05.01.24)
• Overnight on April 30-May 1, Ukrainian drones hit a major oil refinery owned by state-controlled Rosneft in Ryazan, southeast of Moscow, just as the facility’s crude-processing had recovered from a previous strike. The overnight attack caused a fire at the plant, a person in the Ukraine military who is familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 05.01.24)
• Overnight on April 30-May 1, a Ukrainian official said a Russian missile attack overnight had killed three people and injured three others in Odesa. (NYT, 04.30.24)
• On May 1, five people were killed in separate strikes in eastern Ukraine by Russian forces firing missiles and bombs that hit small towns in the regions of Kharkiv and Donetsk, local officials said. (RFE/RL, 05.01.24)
• On May 2, a Russian missile strike on Odesa wounded 14 people and damaged critical civilian infrastructure. It was the third Russian missile attack on the city in as many days. The head of the region's military administration said the strike started a fire and that storage depots of the local branch of Ukraine's postal service were damaged. (RFE/RL, 05.02.24)
• On May 2, Ukrainian drones targeted energy infrastructure in Russia’s Oryol and Smolensk regions. (MT/AFP, 05.02.24)
• On May 3, two people were killed in a Russian attack on the city of Kurakhove, located in the eastern Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 05.03.24)
• On May 3, Russian authorities said that two people were injured in three separate drone attacks in western Russia’s Belgorod region. (MT/AFP, 05.03.24)

• On May 3, Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState reported in its Telegram channel that the “enemy advanced” near the Donetsk region’s Ocheretyne and Kotlyarivka. Another Ukrainian Telegram channel, Govoryat Snaiper, acknowledged earlier this week that the state of affairs at Ocheretyne was “disappointing.” (RM, 05.03.24)

• On May 3, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly claimed that Russian forces have captured 547 square kilometers in Ukraine since the beginning of 2024. (RM, 05.03.24)

• Russian military intelligence officer Eduard Ulman, who was sentenced in absentia to 14 years in prison for shooting to death six Chechen civilians in 2002, has been killed in the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.03.24)
• A Ukrainian lawmaker who spoke on the condition of anonymity said they believed Zelenskyy’s announcement in February that 31,000 soldiers had been killed since 2022 vastly downplayed the war’s true toll. (WP, 04.27.24)
• About 450,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war with Ukraine. This assessment was given by the British Minister for the Armed Forces, Leo Docherty, reports the U.K. Defense Journal. The number of dead PMC fighters is unclear. Tens of thousands of Russians have deserted, he said. Also, according to Docherty, since February 2022, Ukraine has destroyed or captured more than 10 thousand Russian armored vehicles, including “almost 3,000 tanks, 109 aircraft, 136 helicopters, 346 unmanned aerial vehicles, 23 naval vessels of all classes and more than 1,500 artillery systems of all types.” (Istories, 04.28.24)
• First Deputy Head of the State Duma’s Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev announced the need to replace the mobilized who are in the combat zone in Ukraine. According to him, it is necessary to replace soldiers through “gradual rotation” and, if necessary, with the help of a “new recruitment” of servicemen. (Kommersant, 04.27.24)
• With Ukraine desperate for soldiers to reinforce its crumbling defenses against Russia's invasion, Ukrainian embassies have temporarily suspended consular services for fighting-age men, placing new pressure on them to go home to fight. The suspension of citizen services, such as passport renewals, is intended as a preliminary step to a new mobilization law that will go into force on May 18. It will require all men ages 18 to 60 to update their personal information with a local draft office within 60 days. (WP, 05.03.24)
• Police in Germany said on April 28 that they had arrested a 57-year-old Russian man on suspicion of stabbing two Ukrainian soldiers to death in a shopping center in the Bavarian city of Murnau a day earlier. (RFE/RL, 04.29.24)
• Five Russians accused of setting fire to a helicopter on behalf of Ukraine appeared before a Moscow court on April 30 and were charged with “terrorism.” The Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s intelligence agency HUR published a video late last week of what it claimed was a Ka-32 transportation helicopter being set ablaze at a Moscow airport. (MT/AFP, 04.30.24)
• The FSB announced the liquidation of a person it claimed to have been a “Ukrainian intelligence agent” who allegedly planned terrorist attacks in the Leningrad region. (Istories, 05.03.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• On April 28, Ukraine received a shipment of anti-armor rockets, missiles and badly needed 155-millimeter artillery shells. It was the first installment from the $61 billion in military aid that U.S. President Joe Biden approved just four days earlier. A second batch of those weapons and ammunition arrived on April 29. And a fresh supply of Patriot interceptor missiles from Spain arrived in Poland on April 30. But one American official said most of the larger weapons that were financed by the new U.S. aid, and even some of the ammunition, would be shipped from the United States and most likely not be delivered until well into the summer—or even later. For instance, the newly pledged Patriot system is not expected to arrive in Ukraine until summer, according to this newspaper. (NYT, 05.03.24)
  • Biden scored a massive foreign policy win with the passage of a foreign aid bill last week that included $60 billion for Ukraine. But now, having cleared that hurdle, his team is poised to make America’s ongoing commitment to the Ukraine war less of a public focus, as it addresses an electorate preoccupied with economic concerns. (Politico, 05.02.24)
• U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on April 30 appealed to the partners of the United States to transfer Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. Austin did not identify the countries, but among those that are known to possess the systems are Spain, Greece, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. (RFE/RL, 04.30.24)
• Donald Trump, in an interview published April 30, said Europe has “taken advantage of us, both on NATO and on Ukraine. We're in for billions of dollars more than they're in in Ukraine. It shouldn't be that way. It should be the opposite way. Because they're much more greatly affected.” When asked if he would continue providing aid to Ukraine, Trump said: “I’m going to try and help Ukraine but Europe has to get there also and do their job. They're not doing their job. Europe is not paying their fair share.” (Time, 04.30.24)
  • Trump also said: “Look at what happened with [Biden] allowing Russia to do that with Ukraine. That would have never happened with me, and it didn't happen. And I knew Putin very well.” : “I think Biden has dealt with Putin very poorly. Putin should never have gone into Ukraine. And he didn't go in for four years with me. I get along very well with Putin.” (Time, 04.30.24)
• British Foreign Secretary David Cameron promised three billion pounds ($3.74 billion) of annual military aid for Ukraine for "as long as it takes" on May 2, adding that London had no objection to the weapons being used inside Russia. "Ukraine has that right. Just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it's defending itself," Cameron said during his visit to Ukraine during which he met Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (Reuters, 05.03.24)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Lord Cameron's comments could "imperil the entire system of European security architecture." Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has offered a reflection of displeasure within Putin's regime, claiming the British foreign secretary's comments amounted to an acknowledgement that the West was waging a war against Russia using "Ukrainian hands." (Sky news, 05.03.24)
• Emmanuel Macron told the Economist on April 29 that he stands by his refusal to rule out putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. ... “If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request, which is not the case today,” he says, “we would legitimately have to ask ourselves this question.” France, he notes, sent its troops to help African countries in the Sahel when their leaders asked. (The Economist, 05.02.24)
  • The Kremlin on May 3 slammed comments by Macron in which he repeated that the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out. (MT/AFP, 05.03.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Biden is pressing his allies to seek ways of tapping into the roughly €260 billion of Russian reserves, with the G7 leaders’ summit in Italy next month seen as a key moment to push for progress. Yet the topic is dividing the club of advanced economies. The Biden administration has backed calls for confiscation, as have Canada and some members of the U.K. government, especially its foreign secretary, Lord Cameron. Meanwhile, Japan, France, Germany, Italy — and the EU itself — remain highly cautious, resulting in a stalemate. Although Ukraine continues to push for an all-out seizure of Russia’s assets, G-7 officials say privately that is no longer on the table. Instead, they are exploring alternative ways of extracting funding from the frozen assets, such as using those reserves as collateral to raise debt for Ukraine. (FT, 05.03.24) 
  • Russian officials threatened the West with a "severe" response in the event that frozen Russian assets are confiscated, promising "endless" legal challenges and tit-for-tat measures. Zakharova said Russia would never cede territories seized from Ukraine in exchange for the return of frozen assets. (RFE/RL, 04.28.24)
• The U.S. Senate voted April 30 evening to approve legislation banning the import of enriched uranium from Russia, sending the measure to the White House which has said it supports efforts to block the Kremlin’s shipments of the reactor fuel. (Bloomberg, 04.30.24)
• The U.S. on May 1 announced sanctions on nearly 300 companies and individuals, including in China and the United Arab Emirates, for alleged support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on nearly 200 targets, while the State Department designated more than 80. The sanctions aim to limit Russia's military-industrial base, chemical weapons programs, and people and firms in third countries that help Russia acquire weapons components. (Bloomberg, 05.01.24, RFE/RL, 05.01.24)
• The largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, said on May 2 its assets in Russia may be seized following lawsuits filed in Russia and the United States. In March, Russia's stated-owned VTB bank filed a lawsuit to regain its funds blocked abroad after JP Morgan Chase sued VTB in New York to halt its efforts to recover $439.5 million from an account that was blocked after Russia launched its ongoing invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and VTB was hit with sanctions. (RFE/RL, 05.02.24)

• In the opening days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a maker of a temperature-regulating part for Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner ceased its Russian operations and shifted production west. At the time, Boeing was building so few of the jets that the supplier, RTX was able to keep up with demand. But now the jet maker is trying to increase production of the wide-bodies, and RTX’s new factory lines in the U.S. and U.K. aren’t making enough. (WSJ, 05.03.24)

• Japan Tobacco’s chief executive has said the company will keep its lucrative Russian business to satisfy investors after reshaping its supply chains to comply with sanctions. The cigarette maker is routing some business through Turkey and has moved key personnel to Hong Kong. The company, 33% owned by the Japanese state, had originally said it would consider selling its Russian business following the onset of war in 2022. (FT, 04.30.24)
• “Attrition on the battlefield will not end the war alone,” Commander of Ukraine’s ground forces Oleksandr Pavliuk said. “The end of the war will come about through technological superiority and the real isolation of Russia. Right now, too many countries are sitting on their hands waiting to see how this war ends, just hoping that it won’t affect them.” (The Times of London, 05.02.24)

• In Finland, the Kainuu District Court arrested three Russian students on suspicion of taking dual-use items to Russia, including electronics and laser equipment. The detainees are two men aged 25 and an 18-year-old girl. (Oreanda, Interfax, 05.03.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if it were able to push Russian forces back to the borders—an increasingly distant prospect—it wouldn’t end the war. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says. Right now, both sides are jockeying for the “the most favorable position” ahead of potential talks. But meaningful negotiations can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest, he guesses. (Economist, 05.02.24)
• Switzerland has invited more than 160 countries to a planned conference on Ukraine’s peace blueprint but didn’t include Russia on the guest list. (Bloomberg, 05.02.24)
  • Heads of state and government from G20, the EU and BRICS were invited to the gathering set to take place on June 15 and 16 near Lucerne. Invitations were also extended to the UN, the OSCE, the Council of Europe and to the Vatican as well as to the Patriarch of Constantinople. (Bloomberg, 05.02.24)
  • “The summit will serve as a platform for dialog on ways to achieve a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace for Ukraine in accordance with the UN Charter and the norms of international law,” Zelenskyy said in a statement on his website. “All the invited parties have confirmed their respect for these principles.” (Bloomberg, 05.02.24)

  • Kuleba said: “We know that it doesn’t make sense to have Russia at the table if you cannot ensure that they act in good faith. There are only two ways to bring Russia to a situation where it will act in good faith. The first one is success on the battlefield, and the second one is having a coalition of countries who share the same principles and the same approaches. So this is why the summit [in Switzerland] does not intend to have Russia as a participant.” (FP, 05.01.24)

  • Russia said on May 2 it saw no point in a conference being planned by Switzerland to which Moscow is not currently invited. "We don't understand what kind of milestone it is, this peace conference," he told reporters. "What kind of conference can we talk about, what kind of serious conference with serious expectations of some kind of results, without the participation of Russia?” Peskov said. (Reuters, 05.02.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Trump, in an interview published April 30, said: “I think the enemy from within, in many cases, is much more dangerous for our country than the outside enemies of China, Russia, and various others that would be called enemies depending on who the president is, frankly. … Because if a President is good, solid, the proper person, and you're not gonna have a big problem with China, Russia or others, but you still have a problem from the sick people inside our country.” (Time, 04.30.24)
• When asked if the U.S. would come to the aid of a NATO country he believed was not spending enough on defense, Trump said in the interview: “I said, Look, if you're not going to pay, then you're on your own. And I mean that. And the question was asked to me: If we don't pay? It was asked to me long before this event. Do you know that, after I said that, do you know that billions of dollars poured into NATO? Do you know that?” (Time, 04.30.24)
• Estonia will seek to raise the topic of Russia’s alleged jamming of GPS signals with the EU and NATO after a series of disruptions affecting flights and maritime traffic. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said he has discussed the “very dangerous” issue with his counterparts from Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden. (Bloomberg, 04.30.24)
  • Finnair Oyj, Finland’s state-controlled airline, on April 29 suspended flights to the city of Tartu in Estonia for a month after two commercial flights were forced to turn back last week because of interference with GPS signal. “This is a deliberate action that is disrupting our lives, putting people’s lives at risk and can be seen as a hybrid attack,” Tsahkna told Estonia’s public broadcaster ERR late on April 29. (Bloomberg, 04.30.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• U.S. intelligence officials assess that Russia and China are working more closely together on military issues, including a potential invasion of Taiwan, prompting new planning across the government to counter a potential scenario in which the countries fight in coordination. “We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together in relation to Taiwan and recognizing that this is a place where China definitely wants Russia to be working with them, and we see no reason why they wouldn’t,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said May 2 in testimony to Congress. (Bloomberg, 05.02.24)
• Putin plans to visit China little more than a week after starting his new term in office, underscoring the growing importance of ties between the two countries. The visit is scheduled for May 15-16, a person familiar with the Kremlin’s plans said. The dates may yet change slightly, but even if they do, the trip for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping will be Putin’s first travel abroad after his inauguration at the Kremlin on May 7, the person said, declining to be identified as the information isn’t public. Putin will arrive in China after Xi completes his first visit to the European Union in five years. He’s due to travel to France, Serbia and Hungary in a tour starting May 5. During the trip, Xi is expected to defend China's "no limits" alliance with Russia. (AFP, 05.03.24, Bloomberg, 05.03.24)
• Russian Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and Africa, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said on May 1 that Russia and China will help unite the Palestinian ranks during a meeting with Azzam al-Ahmed, a member of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Executive Committee and Fatah's Central Committee, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. (TASS, 05.02.24) 

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms

• Macron is rekindling debate over whether France’s nuclear arsenal should play a role in deterring attacks against European allies. Asked in an interview whether he was ready to “Europeanize” France’s nuclear arsenal. Macron responded that European allies needed to build capabilities beyond NATO to deter adversaries from using nuclear weapons. Deploying air-defense systems capable of intercepting all incoming missiles, Macron said, was one option. “And there’s the nuclear arsenal: French doctrine states it can be used when our vital interests are threatened. I’ve said before that there’s a European dimension to these vital interests—without getting into details—because this deterrence contributes to the credibility of European defense,” Macron said. (WSJ, 04.30.24)

Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency:

• The ISIS-K concern in the U.S. is intense enough that the National Security Council held a “principals committee” meeting last week to discuss the subject. A senior Biden administration official summarized the situation this way in an email: “There is no current evidence of a credible plot. We are extremely vigilant about the potential risk given the evolving threat landscape.” (WP, 04.30.24)
• Authorities in Russia's North Caucasus region of Karachai-Cherkessia said on April 29 that two police officers were killed and four wounded overnight in an attack by armed individuals who threw an explosive device and opened fire on a traffic police patrol. A week earlier, two other police officers were killed and one officer wounded in Karachai-Cherkessia after unknown attackers opened fire on a police patrol. (RFE/RL, 04.29.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• A cyberspecialist who briefly worked at the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) was sentenced on April 29 to more than 21 years in prison for attempting to spy for Russia, the Justice Department said. Jareh Sebastian Dalke, 32, spent less than four weeks working at the NSA before he suddenly quit in June 2022. While at the NSA, Dalke printed out top secret documents and later offered them for sale for $85,000 to an individual he believed to be a Russian agent. (RFE/RL, 04.29.24)
• Czech government officials said May 3 that the Central European country has been repeatedly targeted by cyberattacks orchestrated by a group with links to Russia's GRU military intelligence service. Citing "the mode of operation and the focus of these attacks," the Czech Foreign Ministry blamed the Russian group APT28, also known as Fancy Bear, for the attacks. "Some Czech institutions have... been the target of cyberattacks exploiting a previously unknown vulnerability in Microsoft Outlook from 2023," the ministry said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 05.03.24)
• Russia will face consequences after being accused of an "intolerable" cyberattack in Germany, a top diplomat has said. German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said Russian state hackers were behind a cyberattack last year that targeted the leading party in the governing coalition, the Social Democrats. (Sky news, 05.03.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russian energy giant Gazprom plunged to its biggest loss in at least a quarter of a century after gas sales more than halved in the fallout from Putin’s war in Ukraine. The loss of 629 billion rubles ($6.9 billion) in 2023 underlines how the Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine has ravaged the state-owned natural gas monopoly, leading to plummeting sales in Europe, its main source of income. Gazprom’s revenues fell almost 30% year-on-year to 8.5 trillion rubles, with gas sales dropping from 8.4 trillion rubles to 4.1 trillion rubles. (FT, 05.02.24)
• The price cap imposed on Russia’s oil exports by the Group of Seven nations and their allies is running into trouble again. Companies in G-7 nations are supposed to only provide their ships or services, including insurance, for Russian oil if the cargoes in question cost $60 a barrel or less. But there’s no way to ensure the attestations are genuine, and plenty of reason to suspect they aren’t. Prices from Argus Media Group show Urals crude selling at more than $10 a barrel above the cap at Baltic ports last week. (Bloomberg, 05.03.24)
• Nations from the Group of Seven have agreed to work to reduce their reliance on “civil nuclear-related goods” from Russia. G-7 energy ministers said their countries will engage in a multilateral effort to promote a diversified fuel supply chain free from Russian influence, according to the closing statement from a meeting in the Italian city of Turin. (Bloomberg, 04.30.24)
• Russia’s crude flows fell for a second week in the seven days to April 28, with fewer vessels leaving the key ports of Primorsk on the Baltic and Kozmino on the Pacific. The four-week average was also down. (Bloomberg, 04.30.24)
• Indian Oil Corp. resumed buying Russian crude oil delivered on a tanker owned by Sovcomflot PJSC this week, paving the way for a restoration of oil flows between Russia and India, after tightened U.S. penalties had disrupted shipments. (Bloomberg, 05.02.24)
• Europe is “sleep walking” into becoming dependent on Russian fertilizer, just as it did with gas, says one of the largest producers of crop nutrients. Nitrogen fertilizers are made using natural gas and Russia is exporting more of it to Europe, replacing some of the gas banned by the EU, said Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara International. (FT, 04.30.24)
• The head of Ukraine’s national energy company has called on EU countries to help protect its natural gas storage facilities from a recent spate of Russian attacks so they can keep contributing to lower prices across the continent. (FT, 04.30.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russian military personnel have entered an air base in Niger that is hosting U.S. troops, a senior U.S. defense official told Reuters, a move that follows a decision by Niger's junta to expel U.S. forces. Russian military instructors are operating at the same Airbase 101, located next to Diori Hamani International Airport in Niger’s capital Niamey, as American troops, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said May 3, confirming previous media reports that Russian troops had entered the same base (MT/AFP, 05.03.24, Reuters, 05.02.24, al Jazeera, 05.03.24)
• New research shows that Russian state media are posting English and Spanish videos to TikTok and have doubled last year’s engagement on their posts, which include attacks on Biden’s Israel policy and his age as well as promotion of far-right commentator Tucker Carlson’s Russia coverage. A report published May 2 by the Brookings Institution documents the trend and predicts that it will accelerate as the November election nears. (WP, 05.02.24)
• American conservative pundit Tucker Carlson on April 30 released an interview with Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin, who criticized “Anglo-Saxon” individualism and warned that Western liberal ideas would bring about the loss of “human identity.” (MT/AFP, 04.30.24)
• U.S. President Joe Biden has called for the release of all imprisoned journalists, including RFE/RL's Alsu Kurmasheva and Evan Gershkovich of the WSJ, who have been detained in Russia on charges they, their employers, and their supporters reject as politically motivated.  (RFE/RL, 05.03.24)
  • Former President Donald Trump said Gershkovich should be freed from a Russian jail. “The reporter should be released and he will be released,” Trump told Time magazine in an interview published April 30. (WSJ, 04.30.24)
• Basketball star Brittney Griner said she considered suicide at the start of her nine-year sentence in a Russian labor camp, the result of her 2022 arrest near Moscow for carrying a small amount of cannabis oil. (WSJ, 05.03.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The largest Western banks that remain in Russia paid the Kremlin more than €800 million in taxes last year, a fourfold increase on prewar levels, despite promises to minimize their Russian exposure after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The seven top European banks by assets in Russia — Raiffeisen Bank International, UniCredit, ING, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo and OTP — reported a combined profit of more than €3 billion in 2023. Those profits were three times more than in 2021 and were partly generated by funds that the banks cannot withdraw from the country. The jump in profitability resulted in the European banks paying about €800 million in tax, up from €200 million in 2021. The taxes paid by European banks are equivalent to about 0.4 % of all Russia’s expected non-energy budget revenues for 2024, (FT, 04.28.24)
• As many as a million Russians fled abroad in the first year of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Now thousands are returning home, delivering a propaganda victory to President Vladimir Putin and a boost to his war economy. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates, reverse migration has likely added between one-fifth and one-third to Russia’s 3.6% annual economic growth in 2023. (Bloomberg, 05.02.24)
• Putin appears on track to institute a rare tax increase on corporations and high earners, a move that reflects both the burgeoning costs of his war in Ukraine and the firm control he has over the Russian elite as he embarks on a fifth term in office. (NYT, 04.27.24)
• The State Duma can approve Putin’s pick for prime minister as early as three days after his May 7 inauguration, according to TASS. (RM, 05.03.24)
  • Putin is purportedly mulling the removal of Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko from her post following his inauguration next week, the Vedomosti business newspaper reported May 2, citing four anonymous sources close to the Kremlin. Abramchenko, 48, has overseen environmental projects, natural resources, and Russia’s agro-industrial complex since 2020 as a member of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s cabinet. (MT/AFP, 05.02.24)
• Putin might not have planned for Alexei Navalny’s February death in an Arctic penal colony to happen when it did. U.S. intelligence agencies have determined that Putin likely didn’t order Navalny to be killed at the notoriously brutal prison camp in February, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that deepens the mystery about the circumstances of his death. The assessment doesn’t dispute Putin’s culpability for Navalny’s death, but rather finds he probably didn’t order it at that moment. (WSJ, 04.27.24)
• Russian police have launched a fresh crackdown on associates of Navalny. The Russian courts accused Konstantin Gabov and Sergey Karelin of working with the YouTube channel of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation. Announcing the charges against Gabov, a Moscow court on April 27 named him as a producer for international news agency Reuters. The agency has not commented on his arrest. "AP is very concerned by the detention of Russian video journalist Sergei Karelin," the agency told AFP. "We are seeking additional information." (FT, 04.28.24, MT, 04.28.24)
• A military court in Russia's Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk on May 3 sentenced anti-war activist Angel Nikolayev to 15 years in prison on a charge of arson against a military recruitment center, desecration of Russia's national flag, and vandalism. (RFE/RL, 05.03.24)
• Moscow resident Stanislav Netyosov was charged with discrediting the Russian military after he dyed his hair blue and yellow. (RFE/RL, 04.29.24)
• Russia's TASS news agency quoted Interior Ministry officials on April 30 as saying that 398 naturalized Russian citizens had their passports revoked after the adoption of a law in October that allows naturalized Russians to be deprived of their citizenship if they are convicted of a crime. (RFE/RL, 04.30.24)
• According to PEN America’s annual Freedom to Write Index released May 1, Russia and Israel entered the list of the Top 10 biggest jailers of writers. (NYT, 05.01.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin met with Tula Oblast Governor and known Wagner Group affiliate Alexei Dyumin on May 2, further indicating that Putin may be seeking to reduce Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's power by balancing him with rivals. Dyumin notably briefed Putin about Tula Oblast’s contributions to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin likely deliberately publicized his meeting with Dyumin following the high-profile arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24 and before the presidential inauguration on May 7, possibly to punish the Shoigu-led MoD for failing to accomplish the Kremlin’s military goals (ISW, 05.02.24)
  • Russian media on April 27 reported that an arrest warrant was issued for another suspect in the criminal case involving Timur Ivanov. Interfax and TASS said a Moscow court ordered that Anton Filatov, a former subordinate, be taken into custody. Interfax said Filatov is charged with "embezzlement or misappropriation of property in an especially large amount." He faces up to 10 years in prison. (RFE/RL, 04.27.24)
• CEO of Rostec and Putin’s KGB-time colleague Sergei Chemezov claimed at a meeting with  Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin that last year saw the number of tanks produced in Russia increase by 3.5 times while the number of artillery shells increased by six times compared to 2022. (RM, 05.03.24)
• The Russian government has published a decree on the Unified Military Registry, which states that from November 1, conscripts will begin to receive electronic summons. They will be automatically prohibited from leaving the Russian Federation and obtaining a foreign passport once the summons are issued. (Istories, 04.28.24)
• Sentenced to 25 years in prison for cannibalism and a series of murders, Dmitry Malyshev was released on parole and fought in Ukraine as part of the Storm V penal battalion. Malyshev signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense in October 2023, after which he was wounded twice. (Istories, 05.02.24)
• A 24-year-old man from Siberia died in a hospital in St. Petersburg after self-immolating in front of a military recruitment center in Russia's second-largest city, medical personnel at the Dzhanelidze hospital said on May 2. (RFE/RL, 05.02.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• The head of Nizhny Novgorod’s city government has been arrested in occupied eastern Ukraine on charges of embezzlement. Oleg Lavrichev, who serves as chairman of Nizhny Novgorod’s City Duma and is a member of the ruling United Russia party, was taken into police custody over the weekend. Lavrichev had been overseeing shipments of humanitarian supplies to the partially occupied territories of eastern Ukraine before reportedly deciding to enlist in the Russian military. (MT/AFP, 04.30.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• A series of explosions and poisonings in Europe, organized by unit No 29155 of the Russian military intelligence, known by its previous acronym GRU, was allegedly coordinated with the help of the family couple of Nikolai Shaposhnikov and Elena Shaposhnikova – who possessed Czech citizenship, but who were undercover Russian intelligence agents, according to the Insider. Nikolai has died since then, according to this investigative outlet. (RM, 05.03.24)
• Czech police confirmed on April 29 that GRU agents were involved in two ammunition depot blasts that killed two workers near the eastern Czech village of Vrbetice in 2014. (RFE/RL, 04.29.24)
• Brussels is set to open a probe into Meta’s Facebook and Instagram as soon as this week over concerns the social media giant is failing to do enough to counter disinformation from Russia and other countries. Regulators suspect that Meta’s moderation does not go far enough to stop the widespread dissemination of political advertising that risks undermining the electoral process, the European Commission is expected to say this week. (FT, 04.29.24)
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov visited Sudan on April 29 in a sign of support for the Sudanese Army, which is locked in a war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). (RFE/RL, 04.29.24)
• Turkish exports to Russia tumbled at the start of 2024, suggesting that a U.S. crackdown on trade with goods Moscow uses in its war in Ukraine is starting to pay off. Exports from Turkey to Russia fell a third in the first three months of this year compared with the same period in 2023 to $2.1 billion, according to Financial Times calculations based on data from the Turkish Statistical Institute. (FT, 04.30.24)

Ukraine:

• Zelenskyy has dismissed Ilya Vityuk, head of the cybersecurity department of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), amid allegations of corruption. In early April a reporter who wrote an article about Vityuk’s wealth was summoned to a military recruitment center, prompting Ukraine’s top military commander, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskiy, to launch an internal audit. (RFE/RL, 05.01.24)
• A former SBU officer has been informed by Ukraine’s investigative authorities that he is suspected of illegal enrichment worth UAH 32.7 million. The suspect is ex-SBU general Andrei Naumov, and the alleged enrichment took place in 2019-21. (Korrespondent.net, 05.03.24) 
• A judge of the now-defunct District Administrative Court of Kyiv, Arina Litvinova, has complained to the Prosecutor's Office and the High Council of Justice (HCJ) about the journalist from "Schemes" (Radio Liberty) Georgiy Shabayev, accusing him of "interfering with her activities as a judge." The relevant message was posted on the website of the HCJ. Earlier, the investigation by "Schemes" authored by Shabayev mentioned that Judge Litvinova has Russian citizenship, which she in July 2002 in Yekaterinburg, as evidenced by a record from the automated system "Rospasport." At that time, she had already been working for three years at the Higher Arbitration Court of Ukraine. (Radiosvoboda, 04.29.24)
• On April 25, the Sixth Administrative Appeals Court continued the hearing of the case filed by former Supreme Court judge Bogdan Lvov, who was found to have Russian citizenship by journalists from the Radio Liberty project "Schemes," and later by the SBU, and who is trying to be reinstated. (Radiosvoboda, 04.25.24)\
• Kyiv authorities on April 30 started dismantling a monument honoring the Pereyaslav Agreement signed in 1654 at talks organized for the Ukrainian Cossack state’s ceremonial pledge of allegiance to the Russian tsar. (RFE/RL, 04.30.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Tajikistan’s Foreign Ministry has summoned Russia’s ambassador in Dushanbe over alleged rights violations against Tajik citizens in Russia. Tajikistan has also advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Russia amid increased pressures faced by Central Asians there following the deadly Crocus City Hall attack. The Tajik Foreign Ministry issued the "temporary" advisory on April 27, a day after Tajik officials expressed concerns about Tajiks being "unjustifiably" denied entry to Russia. The Tajik Foreign Ministry said on April 28 that 954 Tajik nationals have been left stranded at Moscow airports due to tightened passport and custom controls in the wake of a terror attack last month. (RFE/RL, 04.29.24, RFE/RL, 04.28.24, MT, 04.29.24)
• Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry said May 2 that it was again urging its citizens to avoid unnecessary travel to Russia after a surge in reports of increased security checks at the border and denials of entry to Central Asians. (MT/AFP, 05.02.24)

• The Kazakh national atomic company's first quarter uranium production was 5077 tU (100% basis), up from 4744 tU for the same period in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7%. (WNN, 05.03.24)

• Security forces clashed with protesters in Georgia’s capital on May 1 night after the Eastern European nation’s Parliament advanced controversial new legislation that has ignited weeks of demonstrations. Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets to voice their opposition to the so-called "foreign agents" law ahead of the Georgian parliament’s planned second reading of the controversial bill. Critics compare the bill to similar legislation that has been used to silence opposition groups in Russia. (NYT, 05.02.24, RFE/RL, 05.01.24, RFE/RL, 04.29.24)
  • A bipartisan group of 14 U.S. senators warned in a letter sent April 26 to Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze that the Caucasus nation’s plan to reintroduce a "Russian-style foreign agents law" could lead to a change in U.S. policy toward Tbilisi. (RFE/RL, 04.27.24)
    • Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has accused the United States of making "false" statements over the controversial "foreign agent" law being pushed through parliament and protests that have seen several Georgians injured by security forces, saying Washington's words are similar to previous statements that "encouraged" violence during other times of unrest in the Caucasus nation. (RFE/RL, 05.03.24)
  • The European Union said it “strongly” condemned a crackdown on protesters by riot police in Georgia after a night of violent clashes over a controversial “foreign agent” law. “Georgia is an EU candidate country, I call on its authorities to ensure the right to peaceful assembly,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said May 1 on X. “Use of force to suppress it is unacceptable.” (Bloomberg, 05.01.24)
• Suppression of press freedom rose over the past year in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where governments with increasingly authoritarian tendencies have followed Russia's example of stifling and punishing free speech, media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said. Highlighting the situation in in its annual media world ranking, published on May 3, RSF noted the worsening media situation in Belarus, where strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenko's regime persecutes reporters under the excuse of fighting “extremism”; Georgia, where the government has been pushing "foreign agent" legislation modeled on a Russian law, despite massive public protests; and in Kyrgyzstan. "Media censorship has intensified in a spectacular mimicry of Russian repressive methods," RSF said. (RFE/RL, 05.03.24)
• Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan acknowledged the existence of problems in relations between his country and Russia. According to him, Yerevan is in contact with Moscow to resolve them. “In the context of the Armenian-Russian relations, there are certain problems and issues, and yes, we have a dialogue on these issues. Among them, there are issues that require full and mutual understanding, but I think that such problems exist in all respects,” Mirzoyan said. The Armenian minister added that his country is now actively strengthening cooperation with the United States and the European Union. (Kommersant, 04.30.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Yan Boechat from Voice of America and is in the public domain