4 Things to Know

1. Former Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the Russian-Ukrainian war is increasingly about how each side “sells” the outcome as victory. “For both Russia and Ukraine, [the war] is increasingly a question of how to sell the outcome as victory. Someone will gain territory and people and call that ‘victory’; someone will lose almost everything yet still try to sell it as ‘victory’ to their people. That’s the current problem,” Zaluzhnyi explained in a wide-ranging conversation with students of the Kyiv School of Government Named After Serhiy Nyzhny. The ex-commander—who is currently Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K.—also admitted that the Russians are “moving faster technologically, scaling up attacks on our logistics and making it impossible for us to mass forces and go on the offensive. Talking now about us ‘recapturing’ something large-scale is naive; it’s practically impossible—unless with machines.” “Likewise, we hit their logistics so they cannot form a strike fist and be in Dnipro tomorrow,” he said. Zaluzhnyi also argued that “without a clear goal, without strategy, our actions—losing people and the economy—won’t lead anywhere.”
2. RM’s most recent analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (March 31–April 28, 2026) indicates that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 26 square miles of Ukraine’s territory during that period. During the prior four-week period (March 3–31, 2026), Russia suffered a net loss of 12 square miles. In the shorter term, Russia lost 7 square miles (net) during the past week (April 21–28, 2026), a slight increase from the previous week’s (April 14–21, 2026) loss of 5 square miles (also net), according to ISW data analyzed in the latest issue of RM's Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. However, according to daily updates posted by Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState on its map, Russia actually advanced in or near 10 distinct Ukrainian settlements in the shorter period of April 21-28, 2026. Meanwhile, AFP reported that Russia launched a record 6,583 long-range attack drones at Ukraine in April—2% more than in March. 
3. The Kremlin says Russia will halt hostilities in Ukraine for Victory Day on May 9 whether or not Kyiv agrees to a matching pause, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Putin proposed the idea of such a ceasefire to Donald Trump in a phone call on April 29, Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said. However, Trump told reporters after his 90‑minute call with Putin that it was he who had suggested “a little bit of a cease‑fire” around May 9 and that he thought Putin “might do that.” Trump also said he encouraged Putin to conclude his war in Ukraine and rebuffed an offer from his Russian counterpart to help secure Iran’s nuclear material.
4. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a sweeping army reform to be launched this year aimed at expanding contract-based service, sharply increasing pay and enabling phased demobilization of earlier-mobilized soldiers. The reform is intended to create fixed service terms and a clearer rotation system so that some mobilized troops can begin to be released starting this year. Zelenskyy ordered the Defense Ministry and General Staff to present detailed implementation plans and a schedule for higher payments and updated contracts beginning in June.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned that the risk of nuclear catastrophe has risen to its highest level since the height of the Cold War, citing wars in Europe and the Middle East and mounting strain on global security mechanisms. Speaking at the NPT Review Conference in New York, he stressed that today’s nuclear landscape has “more actors, more risks, and less clarity,” and argued that preventing proliferation and ensuring robust safeguards over nuclear materials are in all states’ shared interest. (Korrespondent.net, 04.28.26)
• At Chernobyl, a Russian drone strike in February last year punched through the outer skin of the New Safe Confinement arch that covers the ruined reactor, starting a fire but not breaching the inner barrier or raising radiation outside the shell. Even so, the International Atomic Energy Agency says the damage could significantly shorten the structure’s planned century‑long lifespan and has halted work to dismantle the crumbling Soviet‑era sarcophagus beneath, potentially delaying that crucial safety project by a decade and increasing long‑term risks if repairs are not made. (Washington Post, 04.25.26)
• Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked the fortieth anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster by accusing Russia of “nuclear terrorism,” citing repeated Russian drone overflights and a February drone strike that damaged the New Safe Confinement arch over the ruined reactor. (RFE/RL, 04.26.26)
• Zelenskyy met IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and insisted the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant must be returned to Ukrainian control and placed back under its licensed Ukrainian operator and regulator. (RBC.ua, 04.26.26) 
• Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom has begun loading nuclear fuel into Unit 1 of Bangladesh’s Rooppur nuclear power plant, marking the first VVER‑1200 reactor in South Asia. (Rosatom, 04.28.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Kim Jong Un has inaugurated a memorial complex in Pyongyang for North Korean soldiers killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine, calling the conflict a “sacred war” and a “friendship with Russia written in blood.” A senior Russian delegation led by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov and Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin attended the ceremony. Volodin publicly thanked Kim for sending thousands of soldiers, missiles and shells to help “liberate Kursk,” saying they fought “shoulder to shoulder” with Russian forces. South Korean intelligence estimates about 15,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region with roughly 2,000 killed under a 2024 mutual defense treaty, while the two sides are now discussing a 2027–31 framework to deepen cooperation based on these troop deployments and arms shipments that have brought North Korea fuel, food and advanced military technology from Moscow. (Bloomberg, 04.26.26; The Moscow Times, 04.26.26; Financial Times, 04.27.26; New York Times, 04.27.26; New York Times, 04.27.26)
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un confirmed a policy that requires soldiers to commit suicide on the battlefield to avoid capture, while fighting Russia’s war against Ukraine. Speaking at an event to inaugurate a memorial in Pyongyang for North Koreans who have died in action, Kim twice mentioned soldiers who had “self-blasted,” according to a report by the official Korean Central News Agency.” (Bloomberg, 04.28.26)

Iran and its nuclear program:

Saturday, April 25, 2026

• U.S. President Donald Trump is now demanding that Iran eliminate an 11‑ton stockpile of enriched uranium and halt enrichment—problems largely created after he withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018. Negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are seeking a new agreement that would cap enrichment, remove the stockpile, curb missiles, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and protect anti‑regime protesters, but talks in Pakistan have already been abruptly called off and Iran is resisting demands it views as violating its “right” to enrich. (New York Times, 04.25.26) 

Sunday, April 26, 2026

• According to Pentagon and congressional estimates cited by the New York Times, the Iran war has consumed roughly 1,100 JASSM‑ER cruise missiles (about half the stockpile), more than 1,000 Tomahawks (around 10 times typical annual procurement), over 1,200 Patriot interceptors (twice the total U.S. production in the previous year), and more than 1,000 Precision Strike and ATACMS missiles. (New York Times, 04.26.26)

Monday, April 27, 2026

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg to discuss Iran’s war with the United States as negotiations with Washington stall, in a visit both sides are using to signal deepening strategic coordination. Putin praised Iranians as “courageously and heroically” fighting for independence and hinted at a phased peace approach—first ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, then moving to broader talks—while promising Russia would “do everything” to help achieve peace. Western officials say Russia has recently expanded intelligence and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery, tactical guidance, locations of U.S. forces and improved drone technology, even as Tehran continues supplying Shahed drones now produced in Russia for use against Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 04.27.26; New York Times, 04.27.26) 

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• Since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on day one of the U.S.–Iran war, real power in Tehran has shifted from a single supreme leader to a hardline wartime inner circle dominated by the Revolutionary Guard, Reuters reports. His injured son Mojtaba now mostly ratifies decisions forged by the IRGC and Supreme National Security Council, which control war strategy, the Hormuz blockade and nuclear posture—leaving little space for moderation and reinforcing Iran’s resistance to U.S. pressure. (Reuters, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• Putin used the call with Trump to warn against further U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, with Putin reportedly telling Trump that renewed use of force would have “inevitable, extremely dire consequences” and that any ground operation was “completely unacceptable.” Trump also said he encouraged Putin to conclude his war in Ukraine and rebuffed an offer from his Russian counterpart to help secure Iran’s nuclear material. “He told me he’d like to be involved with the enrichment if he can help us get it. I said, ‘I’d much rather have you be involved with ending the war with Ukraine,’” the U.S. president told reporters in the Oval Office April 29. (ISW, 04.29.26; Bloomberg, 04.29.26)
• Trump has ordered aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade of Iran, judging it less risky than resuming airstrikes or ending the war. (Wall Street Journal, 04.29.26)
• U.S. intelligence agencies are assessing how Iran might react if Trump unilaterally declares victory and scales back the unpopular two‑month war. (Reuters, 04.28.26)
• IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told AP the agency believes most of Iran’s highly enriched uranium—enough for up to 10 bombs if weaponized—remains sealed in tunnels at the Isfahan nuclear complex, which inspectors haven’t accessed since U.S.–Israeli strikes in June 2025. (Washington Post, 04.29.26)

Friday, May 1, 2025

• Trump informed Congress that the U.S. hostilities against Iran that began on Feb. 28, 2026, are “terminated,” citing a ceasefire that started April 7 and has halted exchanges of fire, a move that effectively resets the War Powers Act’s 60‑day clock even as critics argue the ongoing naval blockade still constitutes hostilities and the Senate has just blocked a war powers resolution to constrain further action. (Axios, 05.01.26)
• Iran has submitted a new proposal via mediators that softens its conditions for resuming talks with the U.S., suggesting parallel negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending American attacks and the port blockade, followed by discussions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, though Trump said he is “not satisfied” and major gaps remain over enrichment limits and the duration of any deal. (Wall Street Journal, 05.01.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• The Ukrainian capital is in a better shape to face next winter after Russian strikes caused mass power outages during this season’s prolonged sub-zero temperatures, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. The city of some 3.7 million is now better prepared thanks to aid from Ukraine’s partners, Klitschko told Bloomberg. “Everything is under control in our hometown,” Klitschko said, while conceding that as mayor he had never expected to face the kind of challenges posed by Russia’s large-scale war. (Bloomberg, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• Zelenskyy said Ukraine is preparing further prisoner exchanges with Russia. Kyiv aims to return all Ukrainian detainees—military and civilian, including journalists, local officials, energy workers and “Azov” fighters—while verifying each missing person, some of whom are found in Russian camps. (RBC.ua, 04.29.26)
• Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters on POWs says Ukrainian forces are holding prisoners from 48 countries who fought for Russia—“hundreds” of individuals. Intelligence has identified more than 28,000 foreigners serving in Russia’s military from 136 states, with at least 5,149 confirmed killed. The largest national contingents in Ukrainian captivity are from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Nepal and Kyrgyzstan, and the number of foreign fighters captured is rising. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.29.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s most recent analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (March 31–April 28, 2026) indicates that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 26 square miles of Ukraine’s territory during that period. During the prior four-week period (March 3–31, 2026), Russia suffered a net loss of 12 square miles. In the shorter term, Russia lost 7 square miles (net) during the past week (April 21–28, 2026), a slight increase from the previous week’s (April 14–21, 2026) loss of 5 square miles (also net), according to ISW data analyzed in the latest issue of RM's Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. However, according to daily updates posted by Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState on its map, Russia actually advanced in or near 10 distinct Ukrainian settlements in the shorter period of April 21-28, 2026. (RM, 04.30.26)

Friday, April 24, 2026

• On April 24, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Rodynske. (RM, 05.01.26)

Saturday, April 25, 2026

• On April 25, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Synkivka.  (RM, 05.01.26)
• Russia launched one of its largest combined strikes of the war overnight April 24–25, firing 47 missiles and more than 600 drones—roughly 400 Shaheds—mainly at Dnipro and other Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian air defenses shot down about 30 missiles and roughly 580 drones, but 13 missiles and several dozen drones still hit more than 20 locations, with debris falling on nine more. In Dnipro, two separate attacks on apartment blocks and a broader bombardment that lasted over 20 hours killed at least five–six civilians and wounded at least 47–34, while another person was killed and four injured when a drone hit a civilian minibus in Zaporizhzhia. A stray drone also crashed in Romania, forcing the evacuation of more than 200 people. (Moscow Times, 04.25.26; Washington Post, 04.25.26; ISW, 04.25.26)
• Zelenskyy said Russia launched about 1,900 strike drones over the past week, with Ukrainian forces intercepting over 90%. Drone producer General Chereshnya reported its systems were used in 11,473 interceptions in March 2026—5,800 more than in February—and that they downed three times as many Russian Molniya drones month‑on‑month, reflecting rapid adaptation and scaling of Ukrainian counter‑drone capabilities. (ISW, 04.27.26) 
• ISW reports that an overnight Ukrainian strike on April 25–26 likely damaged two large Black Sea Fleet landing ships—the Ropucha‑class Yamal and Tapir‑class Filchenkov—at Sevastopol Naval Base, with satellite imagery showing both vessels subsequently moved into Korabelna Bay, further degrading Russia’s amphibious lift and complicating Black Sea logistics. Separately, ISW says Ukraine likely carried out very long‑range drone attacks on Yekaterinburg and Chelyabinsk, 1,600–1,700 km from the border, with geolocated footage showing an apartment block hit in Yekaterinburg and smoke near the Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant, roughly 1,700 km from the Ukrainian border. A Russian official suggested Kyiv used an FP‑1 drone launched from Kharkiv region, and pro‑war commentators now warn the Urals industrial belt has entered the immediate threat zone. (ISW, 04.27.26; ISW, 04.25.26; Meduza, 05.01.26)

Sunday, April 26, 2026

• On April 26, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Petropavlivka and Kostiantynivka. (RM, 05.01.26)
• Russian strikes on Ukraine’s Sumy and Dnipro regions on April 26 killed at least three civilians and wounded four, Ukrainian officials said, as the death toll from recent attacks on Dnipro rose to nine. A drone strike near Bilopillia in Sumy, just a few kilometers from the Russian border, killed two men aged 48 and 72, while drone and artillery fire in Dnipro killed one person and injured four, damaging homes and cars. Earlier the same day, the Moscow‑installed governor of Sevastopol reported a Ukrainian drone strike on the Crimean port city that killed one man in a vehicle and damaged several houses and a dance school, despite Russian claims to have shot down 43 drones. (Moscow Times, 04.26.26; Washington Post/AP, 04.26.26; Moscow Times, 04.26.26)
• Ukraine has intensified its long‑range drone campaign against Russian military and economic infrastructure, striking both occupied Crimea and key industrial sites deep inside Russia. The Ukrainian Security Service’s Alpha special forces said they conducted a major operation in Crimea hitting Sevastopol naval base and Belbek airfield, claiming damage to two large landing ships (Yamal and Filchenkov), the intelligence ship Ivan Khurs, a MiG‑31, Belbek’s technical facilities, a Black Sea Fleet training center at Lukomka, an air‑defense SIGINT HQ and a Mis‑M1 radar; the Moscow‑installed governor reported one civilian killed and three wounded in Sevastopol despite saying 43 drones were shot down. Further north, Ukrainian drones again hit PhosAgro’s Apatit fertilizer complex in Vologda region and the Yaroslavl oil refinery (≈15 mn tons/year), damaging a pipeline at Apatit for the second time this month and triggering a refinery fire, as Kyiv seeks to erode Russia’s wartime windfall from surging fertilizer and oil prices. (Bloomberg, 04.26.26; Moscow Times, 04.26.26; RBC.ua, 04.26.26; Bloomberg, 04.26.26; MT/AFP, 04.26.26)
• Relatives of soldiers from Ukraine’s 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kupyansk published photos of emaciated troops and alleged they went days—up to nine—without food or water, blaming poor logistics and leadership. The outcry sparked public anger and forced action. On April 24, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskiy removed the brigade’s commander, citing concealed losses and supply failures. Analysts say the case highlights wider problems with rotations, recruitment, corruption and frontline logistics across Ukraine’s overstretched army. (RFE/RL, 04.27.26)
• Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) says at least 28,391 foreign nationals from 136 countries have signed contracts to fight for Russia, not counting an estimated 14,100 North Koreans. Many, at least 3,080, are reportedly kept at the front even after contracts expire. Moscow plans to recruit roughly 19,000 more foreigners in 2026, especially from Central Asia, Africa and Asia, often using legal pressure. Intelligence says foreign fighters are used as expendable “openers” in high‑casualty assault waves. (RBC.ua, 04.29.26)

Monday, April 27, 2026

• On April 27, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. (RM, 05.01.26)
• Ukrainian drones struck Russia-occupied Kherson region, killing two elderly civilians in Dnipriany. (Washington Post, 04.27.26)
• Russia launched a large overnight drone attack on April 26–27, sending 94 Shahed‑type and other UAVs against port, energy, transport and residential targets in Chernihiv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia regions; Ukraine shot down 74, but 20 still hit 15 locations, injuring 13–14 civilians in Odesa (including two children) and cutting power to about 4,400 customers in Zaporizhzhia. In Odesa, drones struck at least three districts, damaging residential buildings and civilian infrastructure including a hotel, warehouses, a funicular and areas near the port; five people were hospitalized with shrapnel wounds. A strike on Chornomorsk port ruptured a sunflower‑oil tank, causing a major spill, and a Nauru‑flagged cargo ship in the grain corridor was lightly damaged. (ISW, 04.27.26; Washington Post, 04.27.26; Meduza; 04.27.26)
• Russia’s FSB says its officers shot dead two men in Komi who were allegedly preparing to blow up an unnamed oil facility in Ukhta using drones loaded with improvised bombs on instructions from Ukrainian intelligence. (Mediazona, 04.27.26)

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• On April 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Berestok. (RM, 05.01.26)
• Ukrainian drones have struck Rosneft’s Tuapse refinery on Russia’s Black Sea coast for the third time in less than two weeks, igniting new fires, prompting evacuations and keeping the 12 mn‑ton‑per‑year plant offline. ISW says the April 27–28 attack hit previously undamaged northern sections of the depot and refinery, after earlier April 16 and 20 strikes destroyed 24 storage tanks and damaged four more; regional governor Veniamin Kondratyev said around 164 firefighters and 46 vehicles were deployed. RFE/RL and Istories report toxic smoke, “mazut rain” and oil slicks over several square miles of sea and the city, even as schools stayed open and beaches were cosmetically “cleaned.” The Wall Street Journal says Ukraine’s long‑range drones have also repeatedly hit the key export ports of Ust‑Luga and Primorsk. Separately, Ukraine’s 429th “Achilles” brigade said it destroyed a Russian Nebo‑M air‑defense radar near Ukolovo, about 100 km inside Russia on the Belgorod–Kursk border, reportedly hitting the radar’s most vulnerable component and rendering the mobile system—estimated to cost around $100 mn and able to detect aircraft at 500–600 km and ballistic targets at up to ~1,500 km—unusable. (ISW, 04.28.26; Wall Street Journal, 04.28.26; RFE/RL, 04.28.26; Istories, 04.28.26; Ukrainska Pravda, 04.29.26)
• Ukraine says it used interceptor systems to shoot down more than 33,000 Russian drones of various types in March, its highest monthly total since the full‑scale invasion began. Kyiv also claims to have more than doubled its deep‑strike range from about 630 km to roughly 1,750 km, enabling repeated attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including a third strike this month on the Tuapse refinery that prompted local evacuations. (Washington Post, 04.28.26) According to RM’s analysis of CSIS data, Ukraine intercepted 7,232 of 7,889 drones launched by Russia in March.*
• At the Kyiv Security Forum, Ukrainian and NATO officials argued that Ukraine has “outpaced Russia in spite of being outgunned,” turning the country into a “fortress” and a laboratory for modern warfare, especially drones, according to David Ignatius. Oleksandr Yarmak said Ukraine is currently neutralizing about 70% of Russian drone attacks and aims to exceed 90% by year’s end, warning Europeans that a single 500‑drone salvo could force capitulation without comparable air defenses. (Washington Post, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• On April 29, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Rodynske and near Nykanorivka while Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted a sweep in Rodynske and near Vilne. (RM, 05.01.26)
• Ukraine’s SBU says a long‑range drone struck a major Transneft oil pumping station near Perm—over 1,500 km from Ukraine—starting a large fire in what Kyiv calls a new phase of strikes to choke Russia’s oil revenues, a day after a third hit on the Tuapse refinery. Zelenskyy says Ukraine is expanding its strike range and now produces a surplus of some weapons, enabling joint drone and missile projects with partners in the Middle East, Europe and the Caucasus. Istories reports Ukrainian drones also hit oil infrastructure in Russia’s Perm Krai and Orenburg region overnight, igniting a blaze at Transneft’s “Perm” pipeline dispatch station and reportedly striking the Orsknefteorgsintez refinery, one of Russia’s largest; residents described “oil rain” or ash, schools were briefly evacuated amid thick black smoke, and a drone crashed across the border in Kazakhstan’s Aktobe region. A strike on a passenger bus in the village of Voznesenovka, near the Ukrainian border in Russia’s Belgorod region, killed three people and wounded eight, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said. (Washington Post, 04.29.26; iStories, 04.29.26; Meduza, 04.29.26)
• ISW says Ukraine is waging an expanding long‑range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets, with at least 18 oil and 41 military targets hit across 19 Russian regions in April. Recent attacks include the Transneft Perm dispatch station, the Orsk refinery, helicopters refueling in Voronezh, and a Black Sea strike on the Marquise tanker. Zelenskyy claims these operations have cut throughput at Primorsk by 13%, Novorossiysk by 38%, and Ust‑Luga by 43%. (ISW, 04.29.26)
• Putin downplayed Ukraine’s repeated drone strikes on the Tuapse oil refinery, saying there are “no serious threats” and that local authorities are “coping,” Meduza reports. His comments follow a third major attack this month that caused heavy smoke, an oil spill onto city streets, and evacuations. Earlier strikes on April 16 and 20 killed three people, sparked multi‑day fires, created a 10,000‑square‑meter slick in the Black Sea and produced “oil rain” over the city. (Meduza, 04.29.26) 
• Investigative outlet iStories reports an attempted bombing in a military garrison in Khabarovsk Krai apparently targeting Maj. Gen. Azatbek Omurbekov, who commanded the 64th Brigade implicated in the Bucha massacres. The device, planted in a stairwell mailbox, killed a battalion communications commander and injured several others; Omurbekov’s condition is unknown. The incident has reportedly been classified, and local authorities are not commenting. (iStories, 04.29.26)
• Ukraine’s SBU Internal Security Directorate says it has filed charges against 81 people so far in 2026, including 20 SBU officers, for espionage, terrorism, and related offenses. Those arrested include Russian agents, “moles” inside security structures, and participants in corruption and fraud schemes. Recent cases range from SBU regional deputy chiefs allegedly extorting money from a business to agents who bombed a van near an SBU site and a ring producing fake law‑enforcement IDs. (Korrespondent.net, 04.29.26)

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• Putin is planning a renewed offensive, according to people familiar with Kremlin discussions. (Bloomberg, 04.30.26)
• Ukrainian long-range drones have repeatedly struck oil infrastructure around Perm, roughly 1,500–2,000 km from Ukraine, hitting both a Transneft pipeline station and Lukoil’s Permnefteorgsintez refinery for a second straight night and prompting air‑raid alerts, airport closures, school evacuations and a temporary “chemical emergency” warning. Videos and satellite imagery showed large flames and thick smoke over southern districts and above the city, with NASA data indicating a black smoke plume stretching about 130 km east; residents reported a strong chemical odor even as Perm region governor Dmitry Makhonin claimed “no significant damage” and no injuries. Ukraine’s SBU said the refinery’s primary processing unit was “essentially put out of action” and that the pumping station was again damaged, declaring that Russia “no longer has a ‘safe rear’.” RFE/RL and Meduza report universities shifting some students to remote learning, while pro‑war Russian channels concede Ukrainian drones are now flying up to 2,000 km into Russia. In Kyiv, Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said more than 300 interceptor‑drone crews have been formed in the new Immediate Air Defense Forces and downed about 50% of incoming drones in the April 30 attack, adding that layered interceptor units will eventually cover the entire country. (Meduza, 04.30.26; Ukrainska Pravda, 04.30.26; Bloomberg, 04.30.26; RFE/RL, 04.30.26; MT/AFP, 04.30.26)
• Russian forces launched a large overnight drone attack on Odesa, injuring at least 20 people, including a 17‑year‑old, Meduza reports. Strikes hit multiple districts, damaging apartment blocks, private homes, a kindergarten, a hotel, a shopping center, parking lots, warehouses and other civilian infrastructure. The worst damage occurred in the Prymorskyi district, where fires engulfed the top floors and roof of a five‑story residential building; other central and Khadzhibeyskyi‑area facilities were also hit. (Meduza, 04.30.26)
• Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi signed an order mandating rotation for frontline troops, limiting continuous time at “zero line” positions to about two months, followed by relief within one month. The directive requires medical checks, rest periods and proper resupply; Syrskyi warned that compliance will be strictly monitored and violations punished. The move follows public scandals over units left at the front for many months with inadequate food, water and support. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.30.26)
• In a conversation with students of Serhiy Nyzhny Kyiv School of Government, former Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said that modern scientific and technological progress has made it “impossible – believe me, impossible – to carry out operations of an operational scale,” which he defined not as fighting over a few houses or a small town for a year, but rapid advances of 150–250 km in a short time—“that’s real warfare.” (Kyiv School of Government/YouTube, accessed 04.30.26)
• Zaluzhnyi warned that “the real catastrophe” of today’s front lines is that “a human being has no business being there now”: drones—sometimes AI‑guided, sometimes piloted—“fly in and kill people.” He called this the main mobilization problem, saying troops know there’s effectively no protection from drones flying 120 km/h that can hunt down any vehicle or exhausted soldier trudging kilometers to relieve a comrade. (Kyiv School of Government/YouTube, accessed 04.30.26)
• Zaluzhnyi said: “The Russians are, I think, moving faster technologically, scaling up attacks on our logistics and making it impossible for us to mass forces and go on the offensive. Talking now about us ‘recapturing’ something large-scale is naive; it’s practically impossible – unless with machines. Likewise, we hit their logistics so they cannot form a strike fist and be in Dnipro tomorrow. The battlefield is transparent. Not because Zaluzhnyi is bad and if you replace him it’ll be victory after victory; no, it’s because any unit that appears is seen and targeted. Nothing protects you from that.” (Kyiv School of Government/YouTube, accessed 04.30.26)
• Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba calls the conflict “an existential war” where “only one of us will survive,” predicting a largely static front in 2026 with “the main battle in the air.” He says Ukraine survived its “worst winter” since independence, proving unexpected resilience. Kuleba expects Russian ballistic missile attacks to peak “somewhere in the middle of the summer,” and argues deep strikes on Russian oil are now “the most efficient sanction” on Moscow. On the war’s endgame and talks with Moscow, Kuleba is stark: “The truth of this war for both Russia and Ukraine is that in the end, only one of us will survive. This is a war, not for an asset, not for a piece of territory, but for the viability of the national project.” (Financial Times, 04.30.26)
• Russian law enforcement authorities said April 30 that they arrested two people in the Moscow region who were accused of harassing and intimidating officials at the state media regulator Roskomnadzor on orders from Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.30.26) 

Friday, May 1, 2026

• Russia launched two massive drone waves against Ukraine on May 1, sending a total of 619 attack drones from multiple directions over roughly 24 hours. Overnight, between April 30 and May 1, Russia fired 210 drones of various types, including around 140 Shaheds; Ukrainian air defenses—aircraft, SAM units, electronic warfare and mobile fire groups—shot down or suppressed 190, but 20 still struck targets in 14 locations and debris fell in 10 more. From 08:00 to 15:30 on May 1, Russia launched a further 409 attack drones, including about 250 Shaheds, from areas such as Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo, occupied Donetsk and Crimea; Ukrainian forces neutralized 388, yet at least 16 drones hit six locations and debris fell in 11 others, with the mass strike still ongoing into the afternoon and authorities reporting at least 10 wounded and damage to industrial and infrastructure facilities in regions including Ternopil. (Korrespondent.net, 05.01.26; RBC.ua, 05.01.26; Ukrainska Pravda, 05.01.26)
  • Russia launched a record 6,583 long-range attack drones at Ukraine in April—2% more than in March—with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting about 88% of incoming drones and missiles as Moscow increasingly pairs large nighttime barrages with equally large daytime strikes that Kyiv and analysts say are designed to maximize civilian and economic damage. (AFP, 05.01.26) 
• A fire broke out at a marine terminal in Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse after another Ukrainian drone attack on May 1, the fourth strike on the facility and nearby refinery in just over two weeks. Krasnodar governor Veniamin Kondratyev said 143 personnel and 25 firefighting vehicles were deployed and that “every effort is being made to prevent oil spill in the sea,” though independent outlet RTVI reported the Rosneft‑operated refinery itself was again in flames and the town suffered a power outage. Tuapse has been under a state of emergency since an earlier Ukrainian strike sparked a huge refinery fire and oil slicks along the coast. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces hit the Tuapse oil terminal for the fourth time while Russia simultaneously launched mass drone attacks on Ternopil, Odesa, Kryvyi Rih and Kharkiv, with Zelenskyy reporting 210 drones launched overnight, including about 140 Shaheds. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 05.01.26; Bloomberg, 05.01.26; Washington Post/AP, 05.01.26) 
• Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure climbed to the highest monthly level since December, cutting the neighboring nation’s refinery runs to multi-year lows. There were at least 21 Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s refineries, assets at sea — including export terminals — and oil pipeline infrastructure in April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on public statements from both countries. (Bloomberg, 04.30.26)
• Zelenskyy assessed that Russia has lost at least $7 billion since the start of 2026 from Ukraine’s “long‑range sanctions” against its oil industry and refining sector, citing damage from drone strikes, downtime and shipment delays, and vowing to “scale up” long‑range systems after new Ukrainian attacks set major fires at refineries in Tuapse and Perm and reportedly hit Su‑57 and Su‑34 aircraft at the Shagol air base in Chelyabinsk region. (Korrespondent.net, 05.01.26)

• Zelenskyy announced a sweeping army reform aimed at expanding contract-based service, sharply increasing pay and enabling phased demobilization of earlier-mobilized soldiers. The reform will begin in 2026, within which a phased demobilization of certain Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen is planned, Zelenskyy announced. He said new infantry contracts will pay 250,000–400,000 hryvnias (€4,850–€7,750) per month depending on combat tasks, while rear-position salaries will be at least 30,000 hryvnias, with combat roles earning several times more. The reform is intended to create fixed service terms and a clearer rotation system so that some mobilized troops can begin to be released starting this year. Zelenskyy ordered the Defense Ministry and General Staff to present detailed implementation plans and a schedule for higher payments and updated contracts from June. (Meduza, 05.01.26; Korrespondent.net, 05.01.26)

• Ukrainian official Dmytro Usov said Russia plans to recruit a record 18,500 foreign fighters into its army in 2026, with more than 10,000 already from Central Asia, about 1,800 from South Asia, at least 1,700 from Africa, roughly 1,000 from Latin America and about 14,000 from North Korea, calling the scheme a threat to global security. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.01.26)

Military aid:  

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell writes that Congress authorized and fully funded $400 million per year for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, but the Pentagon is “sitting on” the money. He accuses Undersecretary Elbridge Colby’s policy shop of stonewalling appropriators and notes Colby has previously labeled aid to Ukraine and NATO’s Baltic allies “wasteful,” effectively overriding clear bipartisan intent to arm Kyiv. (Washington Post, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• The Financial Times says acting U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Julie Davis will leave Kyiv in June and retire, amid reported frustrations with President Trump’s dwindling support for Ukraine and the sidelining of career diplomats. Her departure follows that of Bridget Brink in 2025 and comes as Russia prepares a new offensive and peace talks stall, leaving a key post vacant. Only about 8% of Trump’s ambassadors are career officers, and many Ukraine specialists have quit or been removed. (Financial Times, 04.29.26)
• Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence has obtained Russian documents showing the Kremlin intends to sabotage Ukraine’s “Drone Deals” partnerships—agreements to attract investment and co‑produce drones and air‑defense systems with foreign states. Moscow reportedly sees blocking Ukraine’s access to such investment and security cooperation as a top foreign‑policy priority, with special focus on undermining ties with Middle Eastern and Gulf partners. Drone Deals was originally pitched to the U.S. as a tech‑for‑defenses swap but has not yet been finalized. (RBC.ua, 04.29.26) 
• Ukraine’s domestic defense industry is now generating surpluses of up to 50% in some weapons categories, allowing exports to allies in Europe and the Middle East, Zelenskyy said. (ISW, 04.29.26)

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Congress the Pentagon has finally released $400 million in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds after weeks of pressure from lawmakers. The move follows public criticism by Sen. Mitch McConnell, who accused the department—particularly Undersecretary Elbridge Colby’s office—of letting aid “collect dust.” The disbursement comes as Congress scrutinizes whether the U.S. can sustain Ukraine support while spending about $25 billion so far on the Iran war. (Kyiv Post, 04.30.26)
• Ukraine and six European countries launched the CORPUS defense procurement coalition, linking buying agencies from Ukraine, Finland, Italy, Norway, Sweden and the U.K. Officials say the network will coordinate planning, share logistics tech like Ukraine’s Dot‑Chain system, and build resilient supply chains based on Ukraine’s wartime experience. Ukraine’s defense procurement chief Arsen Zhumadilov will chair the coalition in its first year. (RBC.ua, 04.30.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, April 27, 2026

• Russia’s Foreign Ministry said April 27 that it added more people to its entry ban list of European officials, activists and academics in response to the EU’s latest sanctions package. Russia’s Foreign Ministry did not disclose how many people were added to the entry ban list or their names. (MT/AFP, 04.27.26)
• The 142‑meter superyacht Nord, owned by sanctioned Russian steel tycoon Alexei Mordashov (estimated fortune $37 billion), has transited the nominally blocked Strait of Hormuz after departing Dubai and is now heading toward Oman, vessel‑tracking data show. (Meduza, 04.27.26)

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• Investigative outlet Proekt links oligarchs Roman Abramovich and Viktor Kharitonin to A7, a Russian cross‑border payments platform created in 2024 to circumvent Western sanctions and itself now sanctioned. Official owners are fugitive Moldovan tycoon Ilan Shor and state bank PSB, with backing from VEB.RF, but A7’s early offices were in Abramovich‑owned business centers, and Kharitonin’s PharmaStandard allegedly provided multi‑billion‑ruble loans. Among at least 25 sanctioned clients are five combat‑drone makers supplying Russia’s war in Ukraine, plus major consumer and travel firms. (Meduza, 04.29.26) 

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• Serbia has revoked citizenship previously granted to Yakub Zakriyev, a nephew of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, just three days after local outlet Nedeljnik revealed the decision, Meduza writes. Authorities now say his citizenship poses a “threat to public safety.” Zakriyev, long a senior Chechen official and since 2023 head of nationalized Danone Russia, had received Serbian citizenship only days earlier under a decree also signed by Prime Minister Djuro Macut. (Meduza, 04.28.26)

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• A German court said Swiss lender Julius Baer Group Ltd. wrongly fired a staffer who claimed he was dismissed after flagging alleged sanctions violations linked to the onboarding of clients from Iran and Russia. (Bloomberg, 04.30.26)

Friday, May 1, 2026

• Russia has banned imports of foreign satellite communication terminals, including SpaceX’s Starlink, under an April 29 decree that blocks radio‑electronic devices using satellites not cleared by the State Radio Frequency Commission. Ukraine’s military relies heavily on Starlink at the front, and Russian forces had also been using smuggled terminals until they were widely cut off in February. Moscow is promoting its newly launched Rassvet satellite system as a domestic alternative. (Meduza, 05.01.26) 
• The entire international jury of the Venice Biennale has resigned ahead of the opening of the 2026 exhibition, following controversy linked to Russia’s return to the event for the first time since the Ukraine war began (RFE/RL, 05.01.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, April 25, 2026

• Zelenskyy said Ukraine remains open to further peace talks with Russia, including in Azerbaijan, if Moscow is “ready for diplomacy.” (Washington Post, 04.25.26)

Monday, April 27, 2026

• Russia’s Denis Pushilin said Russia must create a “buffer zone” in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region and fully seize remaining Ukrainian‑held parts of Zaporizhzhia region to secure occupied territory. ISW notes this statement confirms that Moscow’s war aims extend well beyond taking the rest of Donetsk region, contradicting Kremlin messaging that frames peace talks as hinging only on Ukraine’s refusal to surrender remaining areas of Donetsk. (ISW, 04.27.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• The Kremlin says Russia will halt hostilities in Ukraine for Victory Day on May 9 whether or not Kyiv agrees to a matching pause, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov calling it “the head of the Russian state’s decision” and saying Moscow had hoped for a positive signal from Ukraine but “no response” had come. Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Putin proposed the idea to Trump after discussing Russia’s recent Easter truce and that Trump “actively supported” it and claimed a peace deal was near. However, Trump told reporters after their 90‑minute April 29 call that he had suggested “a little bit of a cease‑fire” around May 9 and thought Putin “might do that.” Zelenskyy said Ukraine will consult Trump’s team to clarify whether the plan is merely “a few hours of safety for a parade in Moscow” or something more substantial, reiterating Kyiv’s demand for a longer‑term ceasefire and durable security guarantees after the Easter truce quickly broke down amid mutual accusations of violations. (Meduza, 04.29–30.26; Wall Street Journal, 04.30.26)
  • “The President of Russia reaffirmed that the goals of the special military operation will be achieved in any event,” Ushakov quoted Putin as telling Trump. (Kremlin.ru, 04.29.26)
  • Ukrainians largely shrugged at the latest Trump‑Putin phone call, the first of 2026, after 11 previous conversations produced no movement toward peace. Zelenskyy simply ordered aides to clarify what was discussed—including a brief May 9 cease-fire idea—before deciding how to respond, with no rush to seek his own call or consult allies. Officials view the proposal as driven less by genuine peace efforts than by Russian fears Ukraine could disrupt Moscow’s Victory Day parade with long‑range strikes. (New York Times, 04.30.26) 

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• Ukraine is in limbo waiting for a resumption of peace talks that might end the war with Russia, with the distraction caused by the conflict in Iran a key obstacle, according to Zelenskyy. Ukraine has yet to receive any new signals from either Russia or the U.S. on when the negotiations might pick up again, while American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are still considering a visit to Kyiv, Zelenskyy told Bloomberg News in a phone interview on April 30. The upshot is there have been no fresh indications on when or where the talks brokered by Trump’s administration may take place, he said. (Bloomberg, 04.30.26)
• Former Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said: “For both Russia and Ukraine, [the war] is increasingly a question of how to sell the outcome as victory. Someone will gain territory and people and call that ‘victory’; someone will lose almost everything yet still try to sell it as ‘victory’ to their people. That’s the current problem.” He also said, “The more we think and plan our future, the sooner we will find an answer as to how much longer we personally need this war, and then build a strategy to end it at that time with that result, so that we don’t have to sell it as victory.” (Kyiv School of Government/YouTube, accessed 04.30.26)
• A new Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll finds Ukrainians’ trust in Western security guarantees has fallen. Those confident Europe would aid Ukraine in a future Russian attack dropped from 59% in January to 52%, while skeptics rose to 41%. Views of the U.S. shifted more sharply: 57% now doubt Washington would provide necessary support, up from 40%, and only 27% trust U.S. guarantees, down from 39%. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.30.26)
• A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology survey shows 60% of Ukrainians blame Russia for blocking efforts to end the war, while 14% point to the U.S., 7% to Ukraine itself, 5% to Europe and 2% to China. The institute’s director warns that although Russian narratives haven’t convinced a majority to blame Kyiv or Europe, the 12% who do represent several million people and pose information-security risks. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.30.26)
• A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology polling finds 57% of Ukrainians still view ceding all of Donetsk region to Russia in exchange for security guarantees as “categorically unacceptable,” down from 62% in March. Some 36% would accept such a trade-off (often calling it a difficult concession), and 7% are undecided. Researchers say opinion has fluctuated slightly but remains consistently opposed to withdrawing Ukrainian forces from Donbas for promised guarantees. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.30.26)
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev said Russia is in an “existential” conflict with the West that will last beyond a generation and rejected any U.S. role as mediator. (ISW, 04.30.26)

Friday, May 1, 2026

• Russian state prosecutors have filed a lawsuit to seize the assets of Vadim Moshkovich, an EU-sanctioned billionaire currently held in a Moscow jail, the RBC news outlet reported May 1. A deputy prosecutor general filed the asset forfeiture lawsuit in Moscow’s Khamovnichesky District Court, according to documents cited by RBC, but the total value of the assets targeted for seizure was not disclosed. (MT/AFP, 05.01.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, April 25, 2026

• With Washington absorbed by the war in Iran, European governments increasingly assume the conflict in Ukraine will grind on for years, with no credible peace process in sight. Analysts quoted by European officials say there is a fundamental clash of aims between Kyiv and Moscow, and that the only realistic course is to keep Ukraine armed and financed so Russia cannot win on the battlefield or at the negotiating table, even though Europe still lacks a clear plan for how Ukraine might actually achieve victory. (New York Times, 04.25.26)

Sunday, April 26, 2026

• NATO’s eastern-flank jitters were on display after Romania initially suggested RAF Typhoon jets scrambled from Fetesti had been “authorized to engage” a swarm of Russian attack drones near the Ukrainian port of Reni, prompting headlines that NATO had shot down drones in Ukrainian airspace for the first time. London later said the fighters never fired or left Romanian airspace, and Bucharest walked back its statement, clarifying no engagement took place. The episode highlights evolving, poorly communicated rules of engagement as Russian drones repeatedly skirt NATO borders and fragments fall on Romanian and Polish territory. (IntelliNews, 04.26.26)

Monday, April 27, 2026

• NATO allies are discussing ending the practice of annual summits amid rising tensions between the U.S. and European members, Reuters reports via sources in Brussels and Washington. Some countries propose meeting every two years to avoid “potentially tense” encounters with President Trump, especially in 2028, his last year in office. No decision has been made; Secretary-General Mark Rutte will have the final say. A NATO spokesman stressed leaders will still meet regularly and coordinate between summits. (Reuters, Kommersant, 04.27.26)
• Britain is becoming a soft target for Russian and other state propaganda because the UK is not prepared to educate people on how to deal with information warfare, according to a former White House adviser and security expert. Fiona Hill told a parliamentary committee that she feared the UK had become “extraordinarily vulnerable” to online manipulation feeding into the electoral system because there was a lack of discussion about civil defense. (The Guardian, 04.27.26)

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• The Economist argues that as leaders like Poland’s Donald Tusk warn Russia could threaten Europe’s eastern flank “within months,” bringing Ukraine into the EU has become a core security issue, not a charity project. Critics see Ukraine as corrupt and destabilizing for EU farm policy, but supporters counter that Europe’s defense now depends on Kyiv’s 800,000 troops and cutting‑edge AI‑guided drone tech. With NATO entry “dead” for now, EU accession and Article 42.7 guarantees are cast as the only credible deterrent. (The Economist, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• In a Die Welt–Bundeswehr war game, Alexander Gabuev played “Putin” ordering 15,000 elite troops into Belarus and Kaliningrad, then seizing the Suwałki Gap as a “humanitarian corridor” to resupply Kaliningrad. Russia used drones to dominate the area, remotely mined the Polish‑Lithuanian border, flooded it with doctors and journalists to raise collateral‑damage risks, then told Washington: “Give us what we want, or prepare for another war that could go nuclear.” With U.S. midterms looming, the team that played Trump’s White House backed talks and effectively sidelined NATO. (New York Times, 04.29.26)
• The U.S. Army’s 1st Cavalry Division will be the first to field prototype XM30 infantry fighting vehicles and M1E3 Abrams tanks this fall, testing them at the National Training Center by March 2027, Axios reports. Commanding Gen. Thomas Feltey says the aim is to restore mobility for armored brigades in drone‑saturated, mine‑laden “no‑man’s land” like Ukraine. The M1E3 will feature hybrid propulsion, modular sensors for counter‑drone defense, an autoloader and more commercial parts to cut fuel and sustainment demands. (Axios, 04.29.26)
• Britain has expelled a Russian diplomat in retaliation for Moscow’s recent expulsion of a British official accused of spying, an allegation London calls “complete nonsense.” The Foreign Office summoned Russia’s ambassador to announce the “reciprocal action,” saying harassment and intimidation of U.K. diplomatic staff is “wholly unacceptable.” The move is the latest in multiple tit‑for‑tat expulsions since Russia’s 2022 full‑scale invasion of Ukraine. (Washington Post, 04.29.26)
• German federal prosecutors arrested a 47‑year‑old Kazakh citizen in Berlin on suspicion of spying for Russia and preparing possible sabotage. Investigators say he systematically photographed military convoys, government buildings, security-service vehicles and defense‑linked companies and sent the images to a Russian intelligence handler. Though most targets were publicly visible, he still faces espionage charges, including under NATO Status of Forces rules because at least one foreign NATO military convoy was allegedly surveilled. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.29.26) 

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• President Donald Trump said the U.S. is “reviewing and reconsidering” potential cuts to its military presence in Germany, with decisions expected soon. (RBC.ua, 04.30.26)
• Lithuania says it has broken up a Russian GRU-directed network accused of plotting murders and sabotage across Europe, including attempts on exiled activists and attacks on military equipment bound for Ukraine, in what officials describe as part of a wider campaign of hybrid operations against EU states and Kremlin critics. (New York Times, 05.01.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russia is importing more than 90% of its sanctioned technology through China, a sign of Moscow’s growing reliance on Beijing as Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine drags on. The figure is up from about 80% last year, as the European Union cracks down on the routes Russia uses to acquire restricted goods, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private assessments. (Bloomberg, 04.30.26)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Dmitry Medvedev called Russia’s conflict with Europe “existential,” and European leaders “absolutely destructive, short-sighted people. “The deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation believes that a nuclear apocalypse is possible am often reproached for using harsh rhetoric, for talking about a nuclear apocalypse, but unfortunately it is actually possible. Anyone who does not realize this is a fantasist or an idiot,” he said, adding that “we would very much prefer this not to happen.” According to Medvedev, such a development of events cannot be ruled out, and one must be prepared for it. “That is precisely why our country has a triad of strategic nuclear forces, and it is being maintained in proper condition,” he said. Medvedev also noted that it is pointless to talk about who would be the first to use nuclear weapons, but “the knot of contradictions is now very tight, including the situation in the Middle East.” In addition, he described relations between Russia and Europe as “horrible,” and with the United States as “pragmatic.” In his view, the conflict with Europe is “existential in nature.” “This conflict is most likely not going to disappear even within the lifetime of the current generation; such a deep furrow, such a dividing line now lies between us,” Medvedev stated, adding that the European Union is currently governed by “absolutely destructive, short-sighted people who dream of a war with the Russian Federation.” (Korrespondent.net, 04.30.26) 

Counterterrorism:

• A rare joint offensive by Tuareg separatists and Al Qaeda‑linked militants has delivered a major setback to Mali’s junta and its Russian Africa Corps partners, killing Defense Minister Gen. Sadio Camara and forcing Russian and Malian troops to withdraw from the northern stronghold of Kidal. JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al‑Islam wal‑Muslimin) and the Tuareg‑led Azawad Liberation Front mounted coordinated attacks on at least five key locations—Bamako, Kati, Mopti‑Sévaré, Gao and Kidal—using car bombs, suicide attacks and armed drones; Mali’s army chief claimed more than 200 “terrorists” were killed but gave no overall toll as fighting continued. Camara, a central figure in the 2020 coup and Mali’s main liaison to Wagner/Africa Corps, died when a suicide bomber hit his residence at military headquarters outside Bamako, while junta leader Assimi Goïta has not appeared in public since, fueling succession rumors. Analysts call the rout a “watershed” that exposes both the fragmentation of Mali’s army and the limits of Russia’s Africa Corps as a security guarantor. (New York Times, 04.25.26; New York Times, 04.27.26; New York Times, 04.27.26; Financial Times, 04.27.26)
• Mali’s junta leader Assimi Goïta made his first public appearance since massive, coordinated attacks by al‑Qaeda‑linked militants and Tuareg separatists, meeting Russia’s ambassador and vowing in a televised address to continue operations until the groups are “completely neutralized.” Russia’s Defense Ministry called the offensive a failed coup attempt thwarted by its Africa Corps and Malian forces, acknowledging a withdrawal from Kidal and the death of Defense Minister Sadio Camara, though Bamako has released few details. (Washington Post, 04.29.26)
  • The Financial Times reports that the fall of Kidal and other cities to Tuareg separatists and al-Qaeda‑linked JNIM has shattered Russia’s claim to be stabilizing Mali and badly damaged the reputation of its Africa Corps. Outnumbered Russian paramilitaries reportedly retreated, leaving Malian troops to be captured, while key pro‑Russian figures in Bamako were killed or wounded. Analysts now expect Moscow to scale back ambitions to regime protection and critical infrastructure rather than controlling Mali’s vast territory. (Financial Times, 04.30.26)
  • Jihadist fighters from al‑Qaeda–linked JNIM, together with Tuareg separatists from the Azawad Liberation Front, are enforcing a partial blockade of Mali’s capital Bamako by cutting key road arteries from the west and south, in what analysts describe as an unprecedented offensive aimed at “asphyxiating” the city and potentially collapsing the country’s military regime. (Financial Times, 05.01.26)

Conflict in Syria:

• Syria’s transitional government under President Ahmed al‑Shar’a plans to turn Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Latakia from a combat hub into a joint Russian‑Syrian training and humanitarian facility, Kommersant reports. The base would “lose its military functions” and be used to train Syrian forces—many drawn from former rebel groups—likely with Russian instructors, while Tartus naval facilities have already lost much of their strategic role after Russian S‑300/S‑400 and Bastion systems were pulled out in early 2025. Analysts say Moscow’s ability to project power from Syria has sharply declined since the Assad regime’s collapse, though Russia may still use Hmeimim as a logistics stopover for Africa. (Kommersant, 04.24.26) 

Cyber security/AI: 

Monday, April 27, 2026

• Germany suspects Russia is behind a large-scale phishing campaign on Signal that compromised around 300 accounts belonging to ministers, military personnel, politicians and journalists. Attackers posed as a Signal “security chatbot,” tricking users into entering PINs or scanning QR codes, which linked their accounts to hacker-controlled devices and exposed chats and contacts. German intelligence agencies earlier warned a likely state actor was involved; Dutch services have since reported similar attempts targeting officials and dignitaries. (Washington Post, 04.27.26)
• The prospects for reducing or eliminating nuclear arsenals among the “nuclear five” (U.S., Russia, U.K., France, China) are “minimal” under current conditions, Russian Foreign Ministry special envoy Andrei Belousov told RIA Novosti. He said Moscow shares the goal of a nuclear-free world but argues it requires a favorable security climate, which is absent amid growing tensions and deteriorating great-power relations. Belousov accused the Western “nuclear trio” of expanding arsenals and infrastructure, signaling backsliding on disarmament. (Kommersant, 04.27.26)

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• Google has signed a classified agreement allowing the renamed U.S. Department of War to use its AI models on secure networks “for any lawful government purpose,” joining OpenAI and xAI under Pentagon contracts worth up to $200 million each. According to The Information, Google will adjust safety filters at the government’s request but the deal formally excludes domestic mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons without human oversight—though it also states Google cannot veto lawful operational decisions. (Reuters, 04.28.26)
• Poland, which is battling a rising number of cyberattacks from Russia, expects online threats to intensify as more advanced artificial intelligence tools spread, according to a senior government official. The government in Warsaw, one of the most outspoken critics of the Kremlin’s territorial ambitions, has seen a sharp increase in online attacks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Pawel Olszewski, Poland’s deputy digitalization minister, told Bloomberg in an interview in Warsaw. (Bloomberg, 04.28.26)
• Moscow State University (MGU) has completed the creation of a closed artificial intelligence hub built around Katerina Tikhonova, the director of the university’s Institute of Artificial Intelligence and an alleged daughter of President Vladimir Putin. (MT/AFP, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• Meduza summarizes a Bloomberg investigation into Russian disinformation network Storm‑1516, a GRU‑linked operation staffed partly by ex‑Prigozhin “troll factory” employees. Since 2023 it has produced at least 190 AI‑enhanced fake stories targeting Ukraine and elections in the U.S., Germany, Hungary and others, spread via counterfeit news sites and big X accounts like “Johnny Midnight.” One fake alleging Zelenskyy allies bought $75 million in yachts was later repeated by then‑Senator JD Vance and ex‑Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. (Meduza, 04.29.26)

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• In a conversation with students of Serhiy Nyzhny Kyiv School of Government, former Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi argued that in a rapidly digitizing world, “two or three enormous private military companies” could be enough to control order in a vast “digital space.” He warned that the shape of any future world order will depend heavily on how states and societies navigate this technological leap and adapt their security and governance systems to it. “So, the future world order is purely the result of the technological revolution and its consequences,” he said. (Kyiv School of Government/YouTube, accessed 04.30.26)
• A Russian oligarch and top business executives are using A7, an influential payments company implicated a vast sanctions evasions scheme relying on a ruble-backed cryptocurrency, for their own transactions, according to a new investigation . The findings, published on April 29 by the Russian news outlet Proyekt, add to a growing body evidence showing the scope of A7, the stablecoin A7A5 that has served as its primary currency and an operation that has received the Kremlin's own blessing. (RFE/RL, 04.30.26)

Friday, May 1, 2026

• A Russian national, Artem Vladimirovich Revenskii, pleaded guilty in U.S. court to conspiracy and cybercrime charges that could carry up to 27 years in prison, after prosecutors said he worked with the Russian state‑linked hacking group “Sector16” to break into and damage critical oil and gas infrastructure in the U.S., Ukraine, Germany, France and Latvia and to plot major sabotage operations in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 05.01.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Saturday, April 25, 2026

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington will not further extend sanctions waivers that allowed purchases of Russian oil already at sea, and ruled out any repeat of the short‑term waiver for Iranian cargoes amid the Hormuz blockade and war in Iran. He said the earlier exemptions were granted only after more than ten of the world’s poorest countries pleaded for relief from surging prices, and argued that most of the Russian barrels covered have now been absorbed, while Iranian exports are effectively halted and may soon force Tehran to shut in production. (Washington Post, 04.25.26)

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, dealing a major blow to the cartel as the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz upend oil politics. With 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity and routes that bypass Hormuz, the UAE wants freedom to ramp up production and invest without quota limits. Its exit removes about 13% of OPEC’s capacity and weakens the group’s ability to manage prices alongside Saudi Arabia and Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 04.28.26)
• Germany is in talks with the Polish government on the transit of additional crude supply for a refinery near Berlin that’s about to stop receiving Kazakh flows. Kazakhstan has been shipping crude to the Schwedt refinery through Russia’s Druzhba pipeline since 2023 when Europe all but halted Russian crude imports following the war in Ukraine. Russia has suspended that deal from next month, leaving Kazakhstan to reroute those volumes. (Bloomberg, 04.28.26)
• Russia boosted its seaborne oil shipments to the highest in more than a month as the impact of earlier Ukrainian drone strikes on the country’s export facilities eased. Kyiv’s attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure appeared to shift back to refineries, with the processing plant at Tuapse on the Black Sea hit three times in April, while the refinery at Yaroslavl was also struck last week. Reduced processing rates at such facilities frees up more crude for export. Previously, drone missions that targeted export hubs in Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic and at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea had hammered loading activity and sent shipments tumbling. (Bloomberg, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov warned that the UAE’s exit from OPEC will eventually drive oil prices down once the war in Iran ends and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, as Abu Dhabi is likely to “pump at will.” Analysts say Abu Dhabi National Oil Company could lift output above 4.5 million barrels per day, undermining OPEC+ discipline, weakening Saudi price management and pressuring remaining members’ compliance. Russia and Kazakhstan insist they’ll stay in OPEC+. (Financial Times, 04.29.26) 
• The Wall Street Journal notes Ukraine’s drone campaign has repeatedly struck Tuapse, plus the Ust‑Luga and Primorsk oil ports that handle about 40% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports, sending toxic smoke over Tuapse and oil slicks across Black Sea waters and forcing evacuations. Yet Russian economist Sergey Vakulenko says Russian output has largely rebounded and high global prices keep revenues above pre‑Iran‑war levels; to “dent” earnings, Kyiv would need sustained, multi‑site barrages with multiple successful hits per facility. (Wall Street Journal, 04.29.26) 

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• Russia’s Urals crude prices at western export ports have rebounded above $100 per barrel, tracking stronger Brent, traders’ data and Reuters calculations show. Urals loaded from Primorsk was valued around $104 per barrel FOB on Wednesday, up roughly $6.50 from Tuesday’s estimate. (Investing.com, 04.30.26)
• Brent crude for June delivery jumped 4.1% to $122.82 a barrel—briefly topping $123, its highest level since 2022—as fears grew that the U.S. might resume strikes on Iran and extend the Hormuz disruption. The July Brent contract climbed to $112.70, and WTI for June to $108.56. ING estimates demand losses of about 1.6 million barrels a day, still insufficient to offset the current supply shortfall, implying further price-driven demand destruction may be needed. (Wall Street Journal, 04.30.26) 
• The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC won’t lead to an imminent price war since the Iran conflict has throttled producers’ ability to unleash supplies, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.” (Bloomberg, 04.30.26)

Friday, May 1, 2026

• Bloomberg calculates that April saw at least 21 Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, export terminals, ships and pipeline pumping stations—the highest monthly total since December—cutting refinery runs to their lowest in over 16 years. Russia’s crude-processing rate fell to 4.69 million barrels a day, about 11–12% below early‑2026 levels and roughly 18% below 2021, tightening domestic fuel supply and limiting Moscow’s ability to increase output even as it benefits from Iran‑war‑driven price spikes. (Bloomberg, 04.30.26)

Climate change:

• Nearly 60 countries are gathering in Santa Marta, Colombia, for the first global conference on phasing out fossil fuels—without the United States, which organizers pointedly did not invite. China, India and Russia are not attending either. (New York Times, 04.27.26)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Former Russian deputy natural resources minister Denis Butsayev left Russia for the U.S. shortly after his April 22 resignation, Vedomosti and Faridaily report. He allegedly traveled via Minsk and Tbilisi amid fraud cases opened against senior managers of the Russian Ecological Operator, which he once led, with his name appearing in case materials. Faridaily says he is likely the first top official to flee abroad under threat of prosecution during the current elite crackdowns. (Meduza, 05.01.26)
• U.S. immigration authorities have detained Baldan Bazarov, a Russian Buddhist lama and former abbot from Buryatia who publicly condemned the invasion of Ukraine and sought political asylum in the United States, People of Baikal reports. ICE picked him up in California on April 29; he now faces possible deportation to Russia. (Meduza, 04.30.26)
• An American man charged by U.S. authorities in a major cryptocurrency fraud scheme has moved to Moscow, and has been embroiled in a bitter, complicated legal fight with some of his former partners. The findings by Systema, RFE/RL’s Russian investigative unit, confirm past unconfirmed reports that Kyle Nagy had moved to Russia shortly before his November 2023 indictment in the United States. Nagy was one of several people charged by the U.S. Justice Department in a Utah-based scheme called SafeMoon. (RFE/RL, 04.30.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Monday, April 27, 2026

• Speaking to Russia’s legislative leaders amid rolling mobile‑internet shutdowns and falling poll numbers, Vladimir Putin urged deputies and senators “not to fixate” on bans and punishments, saying excessive restrictions “slow development” and that legislation should be “flexible, dynamic, progressive and future‑oriented.” His remarks echo a recent admission by top Kremlin ideologue Sergei Novikov that society is “tired of prohibition rhetoric,” as state pollster VTsIOM now records more than twenty‑four% of Russians saying they do not trust Putin and over twenty‑three percent disapproving of his performance, the highest levels since the invasion of Ukraine began. (Meduza, 04.27.26)
• On Monday, a court in St. Petersburg ruled in favor of a case brought by the Russian Justice Ministry to brand the Russian LGBT Network—a top LGBTQ+ rights nonprofit—"extremist." " (MT/AFP, 04.27.26)

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• A sweeping Kremlin campaign to throttle internet access—cutting mobile data across most regions and blocking or slowing Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp and especially Telegram—is provoking unusually broad public anger in Russia just months before parliamentary elections, pushing Vladimir Putin’s approval rating down to 65.6%, its lowest since before the 2022 invasion. Even loyalist figures like Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov warn the mix of war, hardship and repression recalls 1917 and regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov says blocking Telegram endangers residents who rely on it for air‑raid alerts. The state is herding users toward MAX, an unencrypted “super app” that’s easy to monitor, fueling suspicion as the Digital Ministry stonewalls parliament. The main political beneficiary so far is New People, a Kremlin‑created party that has doubled its support to about 13% by championing digital freedoms without attacking Putin directly. (New York Times, 04.28.26)
• Russians downloaded VPN apps from Google Play 9.2 million times in March 2026, 14 times more than in March 2025, according to Kommersant data cited by Meduza. Total downloads from March 2025–March 2026 reached 35.7 million, with 21.27 million in Q1 2026 alone; the top five VPNs had 7.3 million active users by end‑2025. Experts say platform crackdowns reduce usage of services, not VPNs themselves, and are already depressing online sales. Authorities are meanwhile ordering fees and access blocks for VPN traffic. (Meduza, 04.28.26)
• Russia’s top human rights official Valery Fadeyev called the use of VPNs “unnatural” and claimed users seek only “the enemy’s point of view,” branding outlets like Meduza and TV Rain as hostile propaganda. Speaking at a veterans’ conference, he defended the state-backed messaging app Maks and criticized public distrust of it. His remarks come as authorities both promote Maks and intensify repression of VPNs, even though many officials, including Kremlin staff, rely on them. (Meduza, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• Russia’s Federation Council speaker Valentina Matvienko publicly urged Alexei Mordashov, Severstal co‑owner and Russia’s richest man, to “bring some of that offshore money back” to Russia, invoking “conscience” and “patriotism.” (Meduza, 04.29.26)
• Meduza, citing rights group Memorial, reports that at least six people jailed on politically motivated charges have died in Russian pretrial jails or colonies since January 2026, and at least 68 over the past 15 years. Recent cases include alleged espionage, “terrorism justification” over social‑media posts, antiwar leaflets, and dissident religious or artistic activity. Several prisoners suffered untreated heart or respiratory illnesses; two were found hanged in punishment cells, with relatives disputing claims of suicide. (Meduza, 04.29.26)
• The CEO and several other employees of Russia’s largest book publishing company were released from police custody on Thursday after being questioned as part of a criminal investigation into so-called LGBTQ+ “extremism.” Eksmo CEO Yevgeny Kapyev and his colleagues were detained last week after federal investigators earlier launched a probe into LGBTQ+ “propaganda” and “extremism.” (MT/AFP, 04.30.26)

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• Vladimir Putin met Ramzan Kadyrov at the Kremlin and publicly endorsed his bid for another term as head of Chechnya ahead of September’s election. (Meduza, 04.30.26)
• Russia’s independent Levada Center reports that in a nationwide poll of 1,604 adults conducted April 22–29, 55% say the country is moving in the “right direction,” down from 64% in February and 19 percentage points below March 2025, while 28% see it on the “wrong track”; Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has slipped to 79% with 16% disapproval—falling below 80% for the first time since autumn 2022—and approval of the government has eased to 63% with 30% disapproval, signaling a gradual erosion of exceptionally high post-invasion support despite continued majority backing. (Levada Center, 04.30.26) 
  • Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has fallen to 73 percent “rather well” in a Public Opinion Foundation poll, the lowest level since the first days of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, amid parallel declines recorded by Levada and VTsIOM and what Kremlin-linked consultants describe as public anger over Telegram blocks, mobile internet restrictions, rising prices, and war fatigue. (Meduza, 05.01.26) 
  • Russia’s state-run VTsIOM polling shows that 24.1% of Russians do not trust Vladimir Putin and 23.3% disapprove of his performance as president—both the highest levels since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine—while his approval rating has slipped week-on-week by 1.1 percentage points to 65.6% and his trust rating by 1 point to 71%. (Meduza, 04.24.26)
• President Vladimir Putin announced Thursday that Sergei Melikov, the head of the republic of Dagestan, will step down later this year. Senior Dagestani officials, including regional parliament speaker Zaur Askenderov, proposed Fyodor Shchukin, Chairman of the Supreme Court of Dagestan, as Melikov’s replacement. Putin said he would nominate Shchukin as one of three candidates to head the region.. Magomed Ramazanov, Deputy Plenipotentiary Representative of the Russian Federation in the Far Eastern Federal District, has been nominated for the post of Dagestan’s prime minister (Interfax, MT/AFP, 04.30.26)
• Russia’s Digital Development Ministry spent about 39.5 billion rubles in 2025 developing a “national video platform” and another 4 billion on a “multifunctional information exchange service,” which Kommersant and Meduza identify as VK’s VK Video and the state‑backed MAX super‑app. (Meduza, 04.30.26)
• Holiday bookings at Russian hotels for the May holidays have fallen sharply from a year earlier, industry data showed, as Ukrainian drone attacks, airport closures and environmental damage along the Black Sea coast weighed on domestic tourism demand. Hotel reservations in the Krasnodar region, home to some of Russia’s most popular seaside resorts, dropped 20.7% year-on-year for the May holiday period, according to booking platform TravelLine. Across Russia, hotel bookings for April 27–May 11 fell 11.1% from a year earlier, despite the average nightly hotel rate declining 2.2% to about 9,800 rubles ($130.80), the company said. (MT/AFP, 04.30.26)
• Investigators in Dagestan say they have detained 11 residents of the village of Gubden on charges of organizing and participating in an extremist community. Since 2015, the group allegedly ran its own “patrols,” set up a checkpoint controlling all vehicles in and out, installed a village‑wide CCTV system, and detained people whose lifestyles “did not correspond to their beliefs” in a special room where they were subjected to physical and psychological abuse. Nine suspects are already in pretrial detention, with arrest motions filed for the remaining two. (Mediazona, 04.30.26)

Friday, May 1, 2026

• Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office has asked a Moscow court to nationalize the assets of Rusagro founder and billionaire Vadim Moshkovich—along with property linked to his wife, former top Rusagro executives, and related firms—marking one of the largest recent asset seizures amid wartime redistribution, after Moshkovich was arrested on fraud, abuse of power, and bribery charges and Forbes estimated his wealth at $2.9 billion. (Meduza, 05.01.26)
• Russia has intensified its long-running campaign against VPNs by blocking VPN users from major domestic platforms such as Gosuslugi, Sberbank, Yandex services, Ozon, Wildberries, Aviasales and Russian Railways, and by cutting off Apple ID top‑ups via mobile accounts to hinder App Store VPN purchases. The Digital Development Ministry also plans paid mobile VPN traffic and has floated, but not yet enacted, fines for VPN use, while lawmakers move to bar Russian hosting for VPN servers and schools hold “anti‑VPN” lessons. (Meduza, 05.01.26)

Defense and aerospace:

• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above. 
• Russia will drastically scale back this year’s May 9 Victory Day celebrations amid mounting Ukrainian long‑range drone and missile strikes, with Moscow’s Red Square parade proceeding for the first time in nearly two decades without tanks, armored vehicles, long‑range systems or nuclear‑capable missiles, which the Defense Ministry and Kremlin officials say is “due to the current operational situation” and the “terrorist threat” from Kyiv. The Kremlin says only troops on foot and an air flyover will appear, backed by pre‑recorded front‑line footage; last year’s parade fielded more than 180 vehicles and even a pared‑back 2023 event had about 40. St. Petersburg has cut attendance at its Palace Square parade from roughly 5,600 planned spectators to about 310 invited guests, while many regional parades and “Immortal Regiment” marches are being scaled back or canceled. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is one of the few European leaders planning to attend, but the Kremlin said Vladimir Putin did not invite U.S. President Donald Trump despite a recent phone call between them. (Financial Times, 04.29.26; Wall Street Journal, 04.29.26; Ukrainska Pravda, 04.29.26; Meduza, 04.29.26; MT/AFP, 04.30.26; New York Times, 04.30.26; RFE/RL, 04.29.26)
• According to SIPRI, Russia was the third‑largest military spender in 2025, behind only the United States and China. U.S. spending was about $954 billion (roughly one‑third of the global total), China’s about $336 billion, Russia’s about $190 billion, Germany’s about $114 billion and India’s about $92.1 billion. What sets Russia apart is not just its rank but its burden: defense absorbs around 7.5% of Russian GDP and about 20% of all state spending, far higher than in the other top five spenders. (SIPRI, 04.27.26) 
• Russia launched an Angara‑1.2 rocket from Plesetsk on April twenty‑third, placing four military satellites into orbit for the Defense Ministry. U.S. Space Command has cataloged the payloads as objects twenty‑twenty‑six‑zero‑ninety‑A through D in near‑circular orbits around three hundred twenty to three hundred forty kilometers, inclined about ninety‑seven degrees. Independent analysts say the craft appear to be 14F178 MKA radar‑imaging satellites, similar to a quartet launched in August last year. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 04.23.26)
• Russia successfully conducted the first launch of its new two-stage Soyuz‑5 rocket from Baikonur on April 30, Roscosmos said. Both stages operated nominally and a test payload was placed on a suborbital trajectory before splashing down in a closed area of the Pacific. The program, led by Energia and Progress, was first announced in 2015 with an initial target launch date of 2022. (Meduza, 05.01.26)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry on Monday dismissed reports that university students are being pressured to join its drone forces. Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin, speaking at a large gathering of officials, insisted that enlistment remains voluntary and that commanders are explicitly prohibited from transferring drone recruits to other military branches without their written consent.” (MT/AFP, 04.27.26)

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• iStories, citing FSIN data, says the number of people in Russian pretrial detention (SIZOs) fell to a historic low of 81,000 in 2025—down by more than a quarter over four years of full‑scale war. Experts attribute the sharp drop since 2023 largely to detainees signing military contracts and having cases suspended or later closed. Courts freed at least 350 convicts in early 2025 due to wartime service, including 41 sentenced for violent crimes; around 25,000 cases were paused because defendants went to the front. (iStories, 04.30.26)
• Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) has been ranked as one of the country’s top-performing state agencies for “client-centric” service, according to an internal government report cited by the newspaper Kommersant on Sunday. FSIN scored 94% in an evaluation of 62 ministries and agencies conducted by a government analytical body, Kommersant said. At the bottom of the list was the Interior Ministry, responsible for everyday policing, which received a score of 50%. (MT/AFP, 04.27.26)
• Russia’s Prosecutor General has filed a civil suit seeking to confiscate roughly 7 billion rubles’ worth of assets from Ruslan Tsalikov, former first deputy defense minister and longtime Sergei Shoigu ally, in Moscow’s Nikulinsky District Court. The claim targets luxury real estate in Moscow Region and North Ossetia, commercial entities registered to relatives and proxies, and premium vehicles, including an array of foreign cars and motorcycles, allegedly acquired via corrupt schemes now under criminal investigation. (Mediazona, 04.30.26)

• Ratmir Mavliyev, head of Ufa’s city administration and local United Russia secretary, has been detained on abuse-of-office and large-scale bribery charges, Russia’s Investigative Committee announced. Investigators accuse him and subordinates of illegally selling land at the Raduga municipal sanatorium and link him to a Lexus allegedly bought with Public Development Fund money for 21 million rubles. FSB officers raided his office, home, and former workplace in Neftekamsk; Ukrainian authorities also suspect him of financing Russia’s war. (Meduza, 04.28.26)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Saturday, April 25, 2026

• Militants launched one of the most serious offensives in years against Mali’s Russian‑backed junta, with coordinated attacks reported in the capital Bamako, the key military hub of Kati, and major northern towns. The assault appears jointly organized by al‑Qaeda‑linked JNIM and Tuareg separatists of the Azawad Liberation Front, which claims to have seized Kidal and is fighting in Gao. Analysts say the crisis is a major test of Russia’s Africa Corps, which replaced Wagner in 2025, and could damage Moscow’s credibility as a security partner if it fails to stabilize the regime. (Financial Times, 04.25.26) 

Monday, April 27, 2026

• President Vladimir Putin has dismissed Yevgeny Primakov as head of Rossotrudnichestvo, Russia’s cultural‑diplomacy agency, and appointed Igor Chaika, son of former Prosecutor General Yury Chaika, in his place. Primakov, who expanded the network of “Russian House” cultural centers abroad—more than half of them in Africa—responded to his removal by joking “Dobby is free” and said he will leave government service but still considers himself part of Putin’s “team.” Rossotrudnichestvo, a Foreign Ministry sub‑agency, is under EU sanctions and plays a key soft‑power role, including in Africa and the post‑Soviet space. (Moscow Times, 04.27.26)
• Serbia has quietly granted citizenship to Yakub Zakriyev, a nephew of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and former Chechen agriculture minister who now heads the ex‑Danone Russia dairy business, “in the interests of the republic,” according to the country’s official gazette. (Meduza, 04.27.26)
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Monday that it summoned German Ambassador Alexander Graf Lambsdorff to protest a recent meeting between a German lawmaker and the fugitive head of exiled Chechen separatist group, Akhmed Zakayev.” (MT/AFP, 04.27.26)

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• Poland has released a prominent Russian archeologist wanted in Ukraine for excavations in annexed Crimea, Russia’s FSB security service told state media on Tuesday, with U.S. officials confirming that they helped broker the release as part of a wider prisoner swap. Alexander Butyagin, head of the archaeology department at the State Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg, was arrested in Poland in December at Ukraine’s request. In the exchange, which took place at the Polish-Belarusian border, Russia returned several individuals whom the FSB identified as Moldovan intelligence officers who had allegedly entered Russia last year under false identities. (MT/AFP, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• In London, prosecutors told the Old Bailey that three Ukrainian‑born men accused of arson attacks targeting properties linked to Prime Minister Keir Starmer were “recruited” via Telegram by a Russian‑speaking user known as “El Money.” Messages show promises of payment for setting fires at a former Starmer car, a property once managed by his company, and a house he still owns. The men deny conspiracy and arson charges; prosecutors say the jury need not determine who “El Money” is or the wider motive. (Financial Times, 04.29.26)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Moscow is looking to deepen economic cooperation with the Republic of the Congo, as Russia continues efforts to strengthen ties across Africa through trade, investment and debt relief. Speaking at the Kremlin during talks with Congolese President Denis Sassou Nguesso, Putin said Russian companies were interested in expanding operations in the Central African country in sectors including geological exploration, energy, logistics and agriculture. (MT/AFP, 04.29.26)

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• PACE has immediately suspended Ruslan Kutayev, a member of its Russian opposition platform, after he described LGBTQ+ people as “outcasts and perverts” and framed North Caucasus “honor killings” as purely a family matter. President Petra Bayr said his case will go to the Bureau for a final decision. Human-rights groups argued his comments effectively legitimize extrajudicial killings and are incompatible with Council of Europe values. (Meduza, 04.29.26)

Ukraine:

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

• Ukraine has summoned Israel’s ambassador and lodged a formal protest after a second ship carrying grain allegedly looted from Russian‑occupied Ukrainian territories unloaded in Haifa. A Haaretz investigation, citing an internal Russian port log, traced over 30 such shipments to Israel. Kyiv says it warned Israel on March 23 about the vessel ABINSK and was assured of action, yet the ship still unloaded April 12–14. The EU is threatening sanctions over imports of suspected stolen grain. (bne IntelliNews, 04.28.26) 
  • Ukraine said 850,000 tons of stolen grain have been exported from Russian-occupied territories this year, as Kyiv steps up efforts to tackle alleged illegal shipments by Moscow’s shadow fleet. Between January and April, 25 Russian grain vessels made roughly 50 direct voyages from closed Ukrainian ports in occupied areas to other countries, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said in a post on X on Wednesday. More than half of the 850,000 tons was shipped from the Crimean port of Sevastopol, while 13% was transported from Sea of Azov ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk. (Bloomberg, 04.30.26)
• Kyiv police arrested a man who posed as a “major general” and head of internal security for a public organization, allegedly demanding $15,000 from a serviceman to secure a favorable medical board ruling, removal from the draft register, and help leaving Ukraine. The suspect showed photos in uniform and bogus IDs, and issued fake membership cards so clients could move freely. He was detained after accepting $10,000; searches uncovered draft documents and records. He faces charges over illegal border facilitation and influence peddling. (Korrespondent.net, 04.28.26)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• Timur Mindich, the alleged ringleader of a major corruption case, reportedly lobbied for the interests of Ukraine's missile and drone maker—Fire Point—in a conversation with then-Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Ukrainska Pravda reported. (Kyiv Independent, 04.29.26)
  • A public anti-corruption body under Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has called for the removal of Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, citing alleged links to a sanctioned businessman and a defense supplier. In a statement on Wednesday, April 30, the Public Anti-Corruption Council under the Ministry of Defense said it had reviewed materials suggesting connections between Umerov, businessman Tymur Mindich, and the defense technology company, Fire Point. (Kyiv Post, 04.30.26; New Voice of Ukraine, 04.29.26)

Thursday, April 30, 2026

• Ukraine’s central bank kept its key policy rate at 15% as inflation accelerates on higher energy prices, fuel costs linked to the Iran war, and faster-than-expected wage growth. Governor Andriy Pyshny says the rate supports hryvnia assets and FX stability while inflation is projected to reach about 9.4% by year-end—up from a previous 7.4% forecast—before gradually declining toward the 5% target by 2028. (RBC.ua, 04.30.26)
• Hungary’s incoming prime minister Péter Magyar is demanding expanded language and education rights for Ukraine’s Hungarian minority before lifting Budapest’s veto on opening EU accession talks for Kyiv. His conditions largely mirror Viktor Orbán’s earlier 11-point list. The stance disappoints officials in Brussels and Kyiv who hoped Orbán’s exit would unblock Ukraine’s path, though Magyar has proposed meeting Zelenskyy in Zakarpattia in June. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.30.26)

Friday, May 1, 2026

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s push for Ukraine to join the EU by 2027 is straining relations with European capitals, as leaders reject both fast-track accession and “symbolic” membership while pressing Kyiv over stalled reforms and tax increases linked to a €90bn loan; EU officials say enlargement must remain merit-based and warn expectations are “not realistic.” (Financial Times, 05.01.26)
• A meeting was held at the Office of the Ukrainian President to address the launch of a new project by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) aimed at supporting the next stage of anti-corruption reforms in Ukraine. (Office of the President of Ukraine, 05.01.26)
• Ukraine’s Security Service and the Prosecutor General’s Office have issued a new fraud suspicion against businessman Ihor Kolomoisky, accusing him of orchestrating a 2014 scheme to siphon more than 100 million hryvnias from PrivatBank through unsecured loans to controlled companies and layered transactions, an offense under part 4 of Article 190 of the Criminal Code that carries a potential sentence of up to 12 years in prison. (RBC.ua, 05.01.26)
• Ukraine’s NABU and SAPO agencies exposed a criminal group whose members misappropriated nearly 20 million UAH during the purchase of a real estate object for the needs of internally displaced persons from Luhansk region. (Antikor, 05.01.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Sunday, April 26, 2026

• Armenia wants to join emerging Asia‑Europe trade corridors but its railways are locked into a thirty‑year concession, signed in two thousand eight, with Russian Railways, a sanctioned state firm. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says Russian control is costing Armenia its “strategic position” and has proposed selling the concession to Kazakhstan, the UAE or Qatar. Russian Railways, burdened with about fifty‑one billion dollars in debt, has pushed back, while Russia still accounts for roughly thirty‑five and a half percent of Armenia’s foreign trade, compared with about twelve and a half percent for China and nearly twelve percent for the EU. At the same time, Turkey and Azerbaijan plan a new roughly two hundred twenty‑four‑kilometer Kars–Dilucu–Nakhchivan railway costing around two point eight billion dollars, even though experts say reviving the existing Yerevan–Gyumri–Kars line under non‑Russian management would be cheaper and better integrate Armenia into the “Middle Corridor.” (RFE/RL, 04.26.26)

Monday, April 27, 2026

• Estonia’s internal security service is urging European partners to prosecute Russian‑sponsored saboteurs as publicly and aggressively as possible, arguing that long prison terms and open attribution have deterred recruitment efforts on its territory. (Financial Times, 04.27.26) 
• Gulnara Karimova, imprisoned daughter of former Uzbek president Islam Karimov, is going on trial in absentia in Switzerland on charges of bribery and money laundering involving assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Prosecutors say she ran a criminal network known as “The Office,” channeling illicit funds into Swiss banks and safe-deposit boxes. Already serving a 13-year sentence in Uzbekistan, Karimova allegedly exploited her political influence from 2005–2013, including while enjoying past diplomatic immunity in Geneva. (Washington Post, 04.27.26) 

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

• Lithuanian prosecutors say they foiled an international plot to murder two activists—Valdas Bartkevičius, a pro‑Ukraine campaigner who entered Russian territory during fighting in Kursk, and Ruslan Gabbasov, an exiled Bashkortostan independence advocate. Thirteen suspects from Belarus, Georgia, Greece, Latvia, Moldova and Russia allegedly tracked the targets and sought weapons; nine have been arrested. Gabbasov alerted authorities after finding a tracker on his car, triggering an anti‑terror raid that disrupted the network. (Washington Post, 04.29.26)
• The New York Times reports Belarus freed five prisoners—including Polish‑Belarusian journalist and Sakharov Prize laureate Andrzej Poczobut—in a 10‑person swap involving Poland, Romania, Russia, Moldova, Kazakhstan and the U.S. In exchange, Belarus and Russia received figures such as Russian archaeologist Alexander Butyagin and ex‑Moldovan security official Alexander Belan, accused of spying for Minsk. The deal, brokered in part by Trump envoy John Coale, is another payoff from Washington’s sanctions‑for‑prisoners outreach to Alexander Lukashenko. (New York Times, 04.29.26)
• Belarus’s State Border Committee says it is blocking Russian citizens from exiting via Belarus if they appear in a shared database of people barred from leaving Russia, Meduza reports. The confirmation follows the first known case of a Russian draftee turned back at the Belarusian border after receiving a draft notice, when an automatic travel ban was entered into Russia’s electronic registry. Officials now acknowledge Minsk and Moscow exchange these data and jointly enforce exit restrictions. (Meduza, 04.29.26) 

Friday, May 1, 2026

• A shell company backed by Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump is merging with Cove Capital’s Kaz Resources, which last year secured up to $1.6bn in U.S. government financing pledges to mine tungsten in Kazakhstan, deepening the Trump family’s exposure to critical minerals projects as Democrats warn of conflicts of interest between their investments and federal industrial policy. (Financial Times, 05.01.26)

IV. Quotable and notable

• See quotes by Zaluzhnyi and Kuleba in the section on military aspects of the Ukraine war.

Endnotes

1. Here and elsewhere, this is an excerpt from Zaluzhnyi’s video interview, which RM transcribed and translated from Ukrainian using AI programs.
2. Sources used: Meduza, 04.29–30.26; Wall Street Journal, 04.30.26; Kremlin.ru, 04.20.26.
3. Sources used: Meduza, 05.01.26; Korrespondent.net, 05.01.26.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI was used in production of this digest.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: In this photo provided by Ukraine's 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers ride a pickup in the frontline town of Druzhkivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Friday, Feb. 27, 2026. (Iryna Rybakova/Ukraine's 93rd Mechanized Brigade via AP)