This Week’s Highlights

• Trump administration officials on April 23 recommended granting U.S. energy regulators the ability to block imports of nuclear fuel from Russia and China and detailed plans for setting up a government stockpile of uranium sourced from domestic miners, Reuters reports. A report from the Nuclear Fuel Working Group recommended that the Commerce Department extend the Russian Suspension Agreement, which established a maximum cap for imports of Russian uranium to 20 percent of the U.S. market.
• Russia sent flowers to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as sources in the U.S. intelligence community told press that there is no definitive evidence that Kim is in grave condition, according to Newsweek. Kim’s absence in public could be aimed at protecting him from the coronavirus, according to senior Russian MP Alexei Chepa.
• The U.S. intelligence community's conclusion that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help elect Donald Trump was accurate and based on strongly sourced information and sound analytical judgment, a bipartisan report by the Senate Intelligence Committee concluded, the Wall Street Journal reports.
• The State Department has assessed that Russia, China and Iran are mounting increasingly intense and coordinated disinformation campaigns against the U.S. relating to the outbreak of the new coronavirus, the Wall Street Journal reports. All three countries are using state-controlled media, social media and government agencies and officials to disseminate information to domestic audiences and global audiences alike that denigrates the U.S. and spreads false accounts, according to a State Department report.
• Russia confirmed 5,849 new coronavirus infections on April 24, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 68,622. Six hundred and fifteen people have been killed by the virus, according to The Moscow Times. Meanwhile Russia's central bank has lowered its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 5.5 percent to help ease the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, according to RFE/RL. The bank expects the country’s economy will shrink by 4 percent to 6 percent this year, while the IMF has forecast that Russia’s economy could contract by 5.5 percent, according to the Financial Times.
• The walls of Russia’s new Orthodox cathedral dedicated to the Armed Forces will be decorated with the faces of Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Soviet leader Josef Stalin, the MBKh News website reported April 24.
• Ukraine’s Ministry of Economic Development said the country’s economy will contract by 4.2 percent this year, according to bne IntelliNews, as Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia and incoming deputy prime minister of Ukraine, has urged the IMF to “at least double” loans to shore up the Ukrainian economy, the Financial Times reports.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The U.S. and South Korea held joint aerial drills April 22 as their mutual rival, North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un, remains absent from the public eye. Meanwhile, Russia sent flowers to the young ruler amid rumors surrounding his health. Newsweek reported April 21 that the U.S. intelligence community has no definitive evidence that Kim is in grave condition. Kim’s absence in public could be aimed at protecting him from the coronavirus, according to State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Deputy Chairman Alexei Chepa. (Newsweek, 04.23.20, Interfax, 04.23.20)
• The Primorye Fisheries Association, a union that represents fishermen in Russia’s Far East, where most of the country’s fishing stocks are caught, has appealed to the Russian government to respond more strongly to the poaching of Russian stocks by North Korean vessels. But Moscow is reluctant to damage relations with Pyongyang and risk any political instability in its Far East border region that could impact negatively on the foreign investment it hopes to attract there. (Foreign Policy, 04.23.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• In what is seen by many as a violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution, Iran on April 22 launched a ballistic missile carrying what it said was a military satellite into orbit. However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova on April 23 dismissed the U.S. claim that Iran violated resolution 2231 and accused Washington of being in violation of the nuclear deal. (RFE/RL, 04.24.20)
• Iran and Russia should increase their cooperation in the fight against the new coronavirus outbreak and continue to trade with each other, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 21, the Iranian presidency website said. (Reuters, 04.21.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• The U.S. is providing Greenland with a package of development aid as part of a strategy to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic, focusing on energy, education and tourism. A senior State Department official said the $12.1 million aid package was part of a U.S. response to the challenging geopolitics in the Arctic. (Wall Street Journal, 04.24.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Tod Wolters had a telephone conversation on April 22 to discuss matters of mutual interest for Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, the Russian Defense Ministry said. (Interfax, 04.22.20)
• The Norwegian military has a direct Skype line to the commander of Russia's Northern Fleet, and tests it once a week. (New York Times, 04.20.20)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• In a phone call on April 21, Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed cooperation on Syria, joint efforts to fight the coronavirus, as well as cooperation in the energy sector, the Kremlin press service said. No specific date for a potential video summit in the Astana format (Iran, Russia and Turkey) on Syrian regulation has been set. (TASS, 04.23.20, TASS, 04.21.20)
• Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed to continue attempts to separate terrorists from moderate opposition in Syria’s Idlib province, the Russian Foreign Ministry said following the trilateral teleconference of the three countries’ foreign ministers April 22. (TASS, 04.22.20)
• Servicemen of the Russian armed forces have performed patrolling missions on the ground and from the air in Syria, the head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of Opposing Sides in Syria said. (Interfax, 04.22.20)
• Another joint Russian-Turkish patrol inspected the situation along the Syrian-Turkish border, a representative of the Russian military police said. (TASS, 04.23.20)
• U.S. military officials complained on April 19 that a Russian Su-35 fighter jet came dangerously close to a U.S. P-8A surveillance plane in the Mediterranean Sea, the second such encounter in four days in the region. Several aircraft tracking sites said the incident occurred in the eastern Mediterranean, not far from the Syrian coast. "The pilot of the Russian fighter identified the tail number and the plane's belonging to the U.S. Navy and started to escort it," the Russian defense ministry said. (RFE/RL, 04.20.20, Interfax, 04.20.20)
• Moscow is concerned about reports of an "explosive spread" of coronavirus infection among U.S. military personnel stationed in Syria, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said. (Interfax, 04.23.20)
• One of the men filmed beheading, dismembering and setting fire to the body of a Syrian man in 2017 is a former police officer from southern Russia, the investigative Novaya Gazeta newspaper has said six months after it first reported on the torture in Syria. (The Moscow Times, 04.22.20)

Cyber security:

• No significant developments.

Elections interference:

• The U.S. intelligence community's conclusion that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help elect U.S. President Donald Trump was accurate and based on strongly sourced information and sound analytical judgment, a bipartisan Senate report has concluded. The report, released April 21 by the Senate Intelligence Committee, concluded that the January 2017 assessment made public by U.S. intelligence agencies at the direction of Barack Obama correctly described Moscow's interference operations. (Wall Street Journal, 04.21.20)
• U.S. prosecutors did not oppose a request April 19 by former deputy Trump campaign chairman Rick Gates to serve the remainder of his prison term in home confinement because of the coronavirus pandemic. Gates was sentenced in December to 45 days in intermittent federal custody after cooperating in special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation. (The Washington Post, 04.20.20)
• At a virtual fundraiser on April 23, former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden forecasted that Trump “is gonna try to kick back the election,” and accused him of defunding the U.S. Postal Service and colluding with Russia in order to win reelection—accusations a Trump spokesperson later called “conspiracy theory ramblings.” (Forbes, 04.24.20)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Early in the week, benchmark U.S. oil prices crashed into negative territory for the first time in history as the evaporation of demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic has left the world awash with oil and not enough storage capacity—meaning producers were paying buyers to take it off their hands. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. marker, lost more than 250 percent on April 20 to trade as low as -$40.32 a barrel in a day of chaos in oil markets. Prices then rose, with oil jumping nearly 20 percent on April 23, accelerating its recent rally as Wall Street eyed continued production cuts and rising U.S.-Iranian tensions. West Texas Intermediate rose 19.7 percent to settle at $16.50 per barrel on April 23. (Financial Times, 04.20.20, CNBC, 04.23.20)
• As Russia’s small oil producers struggle to survive a historic price crash, some say in private they wish they could just set their crude ablaze. (Bloomberg, 04.23.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Trump administration officials on April 23 recommended granting U.S. energy regulators the ability to block imports of nuclear fuel from Russia and China and detailed plans for setting up a government stockpile of uranium sourced from domestic miners. A report from the Nuclear Fuel Working Group recommended that the Commerce Department extend the Russian Suspension Agreement, which established a maximum cap for imports of Russian uranium to 20 percent of the U.S. market. (Reuters, 04.23.20)
• The State Department has assessed that Russia, China and Iran are mounting increasingly intense and coordinated disinformation campaigns against the U.S. relating to the outbreak of the new coronavirus. All three countries are using state-controlled media, social media and government agencies and officials to disseminate information to domestic audiences and global audiences alike that denigrates the U.S. and spreads false accounts, the State Department report says. (Wall Street Journal, 04.21.20)
• Russian state-controlled oil producer Rosneft is on the brink of closing its trading arm, Rosneft Trading, two months after the unit was placed under U.S. sanctions for handling Venezuelan crude. (Financial Times, 04.23.20)
• John Sullivan, the U.S. ambassador to Russia has accused a Moscow court of making a "mockery of justice" after he was denied admission to a closed-door hearing in the trial of Paul Whelan, a U.S. citizen accused by Russia of espionage. (RFE/RL, 04.21.20)
• U.S. prison officials have sent Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko into observation after his cellmate allegedly died from coronavirus, Russia’s Consulate in New York said April 23. (The Moscow Times, 04.23.20)
• The Russian Justice Ministry has placed U.S. non-governmental organization Project Harmony on Russia’s list of undesirable organizations. (TASS, 04.23.20)
• NASA announced on April 17 that it has set May 27 as the target launch date for sending two astronauts to the International Space Station from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, aboard a rocket built by the company SpaceX. That would end a drought of nearly nine years since the last time people headed to orbit from American soil. (New York Times, 04.17.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed 5,849 new coronavirus infections on April 24, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 68,622. Six hundred and fifteen people have been killed by the virus. (The Moscow Times, 04.24.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• "On the whole we're managing the first issue in the fight against the epidemic—slowing its spread," Putin said April 20 in a televised conference with his coronavirus task force of ministers and health experts. "But that shouldn't comfort us," added Putin. "As you tell me, the peak is still ahead." The recent slowdown in Russia’s coronavirus incidences offers hope that the situation is gradually moving towards stabilization, Alexander Lukashev, Director of the Institute of Medical Parasitology, Tropical and Vector-borne Diseases at Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, told Izvestia. (TASS, 04.24.20, NPR, 04.20.20)
• Russia's central bank has lowered its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 5.5 percent, the lowest level in six years, to help ease the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The bank said on April 24 that because of the pandemic and plunging oil prices, the country's resource-dependent economy will shrink by 4 percent to 6 percent this year, compared with a previous expectation of growth between 1.5 percent and 2 percent. The bank said it expected growth to recover next year to 2.8-4.8 percent, before slowing to 1.5-3.5 percent in 2022. (RFE/RL, 04.24.20)
• The IMF has forecast that Russia’s economy could contract by 5.5 percent this year as domestic lockdowns are extended and global demand for its raw materials exports collapse. Russia’s industrial output contracted 2.5 percent in March, according to data from HIS. Russia’s industrial sector contributes nearly a third of the country’s GDP and employs a fifth of the total workforce. (Financial Times, 04.20.20)
• Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimates that by the end of 2020 the National Welfare Fund (NWF) will be reduced from 12.9 trillion rubles ($174 billion) currently to 7 trillion rubles. (bne IntelliNews, 04.20.20)
• Officials have said the Russian government’s COVID-related rescue package, equivalent to 2.8 percent of GDP, could be equivalent to 6.5 percent of GDP when combined with deficit spending. But the actual state injection of funds may be as small as 340 billion rubles, or 0.3 percent of GDP, according to Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank. The Russian state’s anti-crisis measures as a proportion of GDP are worth just one-tenth of those promised by Germany, and a fifth of that pledged in Italy. (Financial Times, 04.22.20, Financial Times, 04.23.20)
• Russia’s billionaires are spending more than $300 million they’ve pledged to help contain the pandemic. (Bloomberg, 04.22.20)
• Russia’s Federal Tourist Agency (Rostourism) wants to help the industry recover from the coronavirus crisis by relaxing visa rules after the country reopens its borders. Rostourism warns that the measures to curb the spread of the virus will lead to “colossal losses for the economy” of at least 300 billion rubles ($4 billion) per quarter. (The Moscow Times, 04.24.20)
• The head of Rospotrebnadzor, a health and consumer protection agency in the forefront of Russia's fight against the pandemic, said on April 20 that medical institutions accounted for more than half of 74 infection ''hot spots'' so far identified across the country. (New York Times, 04.20.20)
• At least 21 Russian regions have requested digital travel passes a week after coronavirus-hit Moscow enacted its system to enforce lockdown measures and slow the deadly outbreak. (The Moscow Times, 04.23.20)
• The Kremlin on April 22 confirmed plans to hold a referendum on constitutional amendments that would enable Putin to extend his time in office. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov hinted a decision could be taken next month, saying "we have yet to analyze the virus situation up to the start of May before taking such important decisions." (AFP, 04.22.20)
• The Levada Center, Russia’s last independent pollster, said Putin’s approval ratings fell to 63 percent in March, the lowest since November 2013. (Financial Times, 04.23.20)
• The walls of Russia’s new Orthodox cathedral dedicated to the Armed Forces will be decorated with the faces of Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Soviet leader Josef Stalin, the MBKh News website reported April 24. (The Moscow Times, 04.24.20)
• The new chief editor of Russia’s leading business newspaper Vedomosti has banned employees from publishing articles that criticize Putin’s proposed constitutional changes, the paper’s media editor said April 22 in the latest report of recent censorship at the publication. (The Moscow Times, 04.22.20)
• Russians’ tolerance of gays, lesbians and other individuals the Levada Center refers to as people “whose behavior differs from commonly accepted norms” has increased over the years, but the latest survey by this independent pollster still shows that almost every fifth Russian supports the “liquidation” of same-sex couples. (Russia Matters, 04.23.20)
• More than half of Russian men and women believe the problem of sexual harassment is either exaggerated or is not a problem at all, according to the Levada Center’s March 2020 poll. As many as 51 percent of women believe this problem is exaggerated, and 8 percent don’t see it as a problem. (Russia Matters, 04.24.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• The development of an electronic warfare system, which will be jamming hypersonic vehicles, has begun in Russia, the newspaper Izvestia said on April 23 with reference to sources from the defense sector. (Interfax, 04.23.20)
• An advanced Russian T-14 Armata tank has undergone trials in Syria, Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov said. (Interfax, 04.20.20)
• The Russian military will quarantine everyone involved in rehearsals for Russia’s postponed Victory Day Parade, the Defense Ministry said April 20 following reports that some participants have tested positive for the coronavirus. (The Moscow Times, 04.20.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Pirates have attacked a Portugal-flagged container ship off the coast of Benin and kidnapped eight crew members, including three Russians, one Ukrainian and the Bulgarian captain. (RFE/RL, 04.22.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel discussed in a phone conversation the issues of countering the coronavirus pandemic, settlement of the Donbass crisis and the global oil market, the Kremlin press service said. (Interfax, 04.22.20)
• EU monitors have identified a “trilateral convergence of disinformation narratives” being promoted by China, Iran and Russia on the coronavirus pandemic and say they are being “multiplied” in a coordinated manner. (RFE/RL, 04.22.20)
• Russia will temporarily suspend deportations of foreigners over the next two months due to the coronavirus outbreak, the Interior Ministry said April 23. Officials estimate that more than 320,000 migrants have already extended their visas, work permits or migration statuses during the lockdown period imposed to slow the spread of COVID-19. (The Moscow Times, 04.23.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Russia has sought to distance itself from a dispute brewing between the U.S. and China over the origin of the coronavirus, saying it can’t support a U.S. investigation into the source of the virus. The comments by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov came after U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News last week the country’s intelligence community was examining whether the coronavirus emerged accidentally from a Chinese lab. (CNBC, 04.24.20)
• China, the world's biggest energy consumer, is building up stockpiles of crude oil. Imports rose 4.5 percent in March over a year earlier. Imports make up about half of consumption. Half of that comes from the Middle East and the rest from Russia, Southeast Asia and Africa. (AP, 04.23.20)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s economy will contract by 4.2 percent this year and then see an L-shaped recovery, down from the October forecast of 3.2 percent growth in 2020, according to Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture estimates. (bne IntelliNews, 04.20.20)
• Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia and incoming deputy prime minister of Ukraine, has urged the IMF to “at least double” loans to shore up the Ukrainian economy and public finances hit by the coronavirus shutdown. In an interview with the Financial Times on April 24, Saakashvili said an $8 billion loan program being offered by the IMF with $4 billion disbursed this year “is not enough.” (Financial Times, 04.24.20)
• Ukraine’s food exports increased by 6 percent during the first quarter of this year, compared to January-March of 2019, reports the Ukrainian Agricultural Business Club. Exports totaled $5.7 billion. (Ukraine Business News, 04.20.20)
• This week, the world’s largest plane, Ukraine’s Mriya An-225, was to fly medical protective gear from Shanghai to Columbus, Ohio. This would be the inaugural flight of a month-long China-U.S. medical cargo airbridge flown by the Mriya and five slightly smaller Ruslan An-124 cargo jets. (Ukraine Business News, 04.20.20)
• Fifty-four percent of people polled in Ukraine in February 2020 said they were well or very well disposed toward Russia, 33 percent expressed their bad or very bad feelings and 13 percent were undecided. The indicators remained practically unchanged since September 2019. Meanwhile, the number of Russians well or very well disposed toward Ukraine fell from 56 percent to 41 percent over the same period, and the number of people harboring negative feelings increased from 31 percent to 47 percent. (Interfax, 04.17.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:       

• The EU’s executive arm says it will give 3 billion euros ($3.25 billion) in macro-financial assistance to 10 mainly Eastern European countries to help them limit the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. (RFE/RL, 04.22.20)
• Armenia has turned off streetlights nationwide as President Armen Sarkisian acknowledged the coronavirus lockdown altered the annual commemoration of the victims of WWI-era genocide by Ottoman Turks. In Yerevan, a torch-lit procession traditionally held annually on April 23 had been cancelled and access was closed to the genocide memorial. (The Guardian, 04.23.20)
• The U.S. has named Julie Fisher its first ambassador to Belarus in more than a decade in the latest sign of warming relations between the two countries. (RFE/RL, 04.21.20)
• The U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi said on April 17 it was "deeply troubled" by reports that Russian-led “security actors” have resumed “borderization” activities along the administrative boundary line of the Georgian-breakaway region of South Ossetia. (RFE/RL, 04.18.20)
• U.S. Reps. Adam Schiff and Steve Chabot have addressed a bipartisan letter to Tajik President Emomali Rahmon about "continued threats" and other mistreatment of RFE/RL journalists. (RFE/RL, 04.17.20)
• Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko is a COVID-19 holdout. Despite nearly 5,000 confirmed cases and over 40 coronavirus deaths, Belarus remains the only country in Europe denying the coronavirus danger. (The Washington Post, 04.21.20)
• Moldovan President Igor Dodon has accused the opposition of triggering an economic crisis during the coronavirus pandemic by blocking a 200 million euro ($215 million) loan agreement with Russia. (RFE/RL, 04.24.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.