This Week’s Highlights

• Russia considers “U.S./NATO weapons transports” to be “legitimate military targets” once they are inside Ukraine, according to Deputy Director of the Russian MFA’s North America Department Koshelev.
• The acting commander of Russia’s Central Military District, Minnekayev, says the goals of the Russian offensive in Ukraine include not only ensuring a land passage from Russia to the Crimea but also access to Moldova’s Transnistria “where there is also oppression of the Russian-speaking population.”
• Senior Kremlin insiders told Bloomberg that they increasingly share the fear voiced by U.S. officials that Russian President Putin could turn to the limited use of nuclear weapons if faced with failure in Ukraine. Putin’s Foreign Minister Lavrov refused to give an unequivocal answer when asked on April 19 whether Russia would resort to the use of tactical nukes in Ukraine.
• The decision to invade Ukraine was made by Putin and just a handful of hawks, including Defense Minister Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, and Security Council Secretary Patrushev, Kremlin insiders told Bloomberg.
• About 40 men were reportedly killed and another 100 injured after the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva cruiser, was hit by Ukrainian missiles and sank last week.
• Commander of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army Kisel and commander of its 76th Airborne Division Chubarykin have been dismissed from their posts, most likely due to heavy losses among their units' personnel in Ukraine, according to the Conflict Intelligence Team.
• Ukraine now has more functional tanks than Russia due to shipments from abroad, according to the Pentagon.
• The White House has detailed a plan to accept 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. That would account for 2% of people who have fled Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, according to the UN. 
• Russia’s exports of crude oil reportedly dropped by 25% in the week of April 8-15 compared to the preceding week, even as oil from Russian ports was being increasingly shipped with unknown destinations in a bid to dodge the restrictions. If Europe and the United States were to impose an oil and gas embargo on Russia, this could knock 15% off Russia’s GDP by 2027, FT reported, citing estimates from the IMF.
• The IMF expects Indonesia to replace Russia as the world’s sixth-largest economy in PPP in 2024, RBC reported.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• IAEA’s Mariano Grossi said the re-establishment of direct phone communication between the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine and Chornobyl was an "important step in the process of resuming Ukraine's regulatory control of the site.” (WNN, 04.20.22)
• Ukrainian nuclear power operator Energoatom said that the Centralized Spent Fuel Storage Facility in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone is ready and could start accepting spent fuel. (WNN, 04.21.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Delegations participating in the Vienna talks to restore the JCPOA are close to reaching an agreement, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian claimed on April 21. Meanwhile, a group of 40 former U.S. government officials and nonproliferation experts have urged U.S. President Joe Biden to complete negotiations for a return to JCPOA, warning that Tehran is a week or two away from producing sufficient weapons-grade uranium to fuel a bomb. (TASS, 04.21.22, WP, 04.21.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The brutality of Moscow’s war on Ukraine takes two distinct forms: programmatic violence meted out by Russian bombs and missiles against civilians as well as military targets, and the cruelty of individual soldiers and units. (NYT, 04.17.22)
• Putin has bestowed an honorary title on the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade accused by Ukraine of committing war crimes in the town of Bucha. (RFE/RL, 04.18.22)
• Two British fighters captured in Ukraine by Russian forces appeared on Russian state TV and asked Britain to negotiate their exchange for pro-Kremlin Ukrainian oligarch Medvedchuk. Moments later, Ukraine's security services posted a video of Medvedchuk asking to be exchanged for Ukrainian civilians and soldiers (RFE/RL, 04.18.22)
• Almost 24,000 Ukrainian refugees — approximately a third of whom are Jewish — have arrived in Israel since the Russian invasion of their country. (WP, 04.19.22)
• The conflict has caused up to $63 billion in damages to Ukraine’s infrastructure by the end of March, according to estimates by the Kyiv School of Economics. (Bulletin, 04.20.22)
• The UN's refugee agency says that more than 7 million people have been displaced by the conflict in Ukraine. Of these, five million have left Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.20.22)
• The White House detailed a plan on April 21 to accept as many as 100,000 Ukrainian refugees fleeing violence in Ukraine. (NYT, 04.21.22)
• In a surprise visit to Kyiv on April 20, European Union Council President Charles Michel assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the EU would do everything possible to help it win the war and said “history will not forget the war crimes” committed in Ukraine. (FT, 04.20.22)
• Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen have made a surprise visit to Kyiv for talks with Zelenskyy. Sanchez said he was "shocked to witness the horror and atrocities of Putin's war on the streets of Borodyanka." (RFE/RL, 04.21.22)       
• Chabad.org said 91-year-old Vanda Obyedkova, an active member of Mariupol's Jewish community and a Holocaust survivor, died in a basement "freezing and pleading for water" in early April after being trapped in Mariupol for weeks during intense shelling by Russian forces. (RFE/RL, 04.21.22)
• A meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from G7 nations pledged more than $24 billion in further support for Ukraine. (FT, 04.20.22)
• The convoy of vehicles, the first to be granted safe passage from Mariupol by Russia in almost two weeks, was meant to include scores of vehicles. As it was, only four buses arrived in the southeastern town of Zaporizhzhia. (WP, 04.21.22)
• Ukrainian officials accused Russia of burying thousands of civilians in mass graves outside Mariupol. (WSJ, 04.21.22)
• The United States is offering Ukraine an additional $500 million in aid to Ukraine. (FT, 04.21.22)
• "Russian armed forces have indiscriminately shelled and bombed populated areas, killing civilians and wrecking hospitals, schools, and other civilian infrastructure, actions that may amount to war crimes," Ravina Shamdasani of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said. (RFE/RL, 04.22.22)        

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Experts from the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) found a number of flaws in Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, including the following: (Vazhnye Istorii, 04.13.22):
  • CIT experts learned a month and a half prior to the start of the war that Russia’s top military brass was having difficulty manning battalion tactical groups (BTG) that were being formed for the campaign. Some of these BTGs were more than 30% short of the required personnel strength, according to this group of Russian open-source investigators.
  • In the first month and a half of the Ukraine war, the Russian military employed some 1,500 missiles, which was not sufficient to suppress Ukraine’s air defenses and destroy its air force and command facilities.
  • The Russian military campaign was plagued by poor coordination and a lack of means of secure communications, with rank-and-file officers not sufficiently trained to use such means and relying instead on mobile phones.
• Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of Russia’s 8th Army, was killed in combat in Ukraine. (NY Post, 04.16.22)
• Russia’s MoD posted footage on April 16 of what it said was the Russian Navy chief meeting the surviving crew of the sunken Moskva missile cruiser at Sevastopol. News outlets have identified the Moskva’s captain Anton Kuprin, who had been reported dead, at the event alongside around 100 of the 510-capacity crew. (MT/AFP, 04.18.22)
  • A Moskva crew member’s wife confirmed the death of her husband, Ivan Vakhrushev, and said at least 27 others remained unaccounted for. Independent Russian news outlets based outside the country have reported that about 40 men died and another 100 were injured when the warship was damaged and sank (MT/AFP, 04.18.22, NYT, 04.21.22)
  • A high-ranking Russian naval officer was quoted by Russia’s Voeyenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer weekly in 2019 as saying: “Until the Moskva becomes the Cheonan, nothing will change for us.” (RM, 04.19.22)
• Alexander Chirva, commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s Tsezar Kunnikov landing ship, has been killed in action in Ukraine, according to Fontanka.ru (RM, 04.18.22)
• A series of Russian missile strikes on military infrastructure in Lviv on April 18 killed at least seven people in the western Ukrainian city. (RFE/RL, 04.18.22)
• Russian lawyer Pavel Chikov has written that more than 1,000 military personnel and National Guard troops from 7 regions have refused to go to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.16.22)
• As of April 19, Russia’s military grouping in Ukraine consisted of 87 battalion tactical groups, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. (Unian, 04.19.22)
• The Netherlands will send armored vehicles to Ukraine. German chancellor Olaf Scholz has refused to supply Ukraine with tanks and armored personnel carriers. (FT, 04.19.22)
• A senior U.S. defense official said capturing Mariupol would free up almost a dozen of Russia’s battalion tactical groups, each composed of between 700 and 900 soldiers. (WSJ, 04.19.22)
• “Compared to the first few weeks of the war, this next offensive is a lot less decisive than it may seem,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CNA. (NYT, 04.19.22)
• Russia’s military is seeking to restrict access to information about the relatives of soldiers killed in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.20.22)
• The decision to invade was made by Putin and just a handful of hawks including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov, and Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, according to Kremlin insiders. Roman Abramovich had to disabuse Putin of his conviction Zelenskyy would flee the country once the invasion began. (Bloomberg, 04.20.22)
• Putin on April 21 ordered Shoigu to cancel plans to storm the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol and instead blockade it. (RFE/RL, 04.21.22)       
  • In a telephone conversation with EU’s Michel, Putin accused Kyiv on April 22 of not allowing its fighters in Mariupol, currently making a last stand at Azovstal to surrender. (MT/AFP, 04.22.22)
• The Pentagon said the Ukrainian air force has at least 20 more fighter jets available to them after an influx of parts in the last few weeks made repairs possible. (WP, 04.21.22)
• The commander of Russia’s 76th Airborne Division, General Sergei Chubarykin, has been replaced, most likely due to heavy losses among the personnel of this unit in Ukraine, according to CIT. In his place, Colonel Denis Shishov was appointed to command the division, according to Meduza. In addition, the commander of the 1st Guards Tank Army, Lt. General Sergei Kisel, has been removed due to losses in Ukraine, according to CIT. (RM, 04.21.22)
• Biden said on April 21 the U.S. would send roughly $800 million in additional military aid to Ukraine. The latest package will include heavy artillery weapons, such as dozens of howitzers, more rounds of ammunition and tactical drones. (WSJ, 04.21.22)
• The United States has sent a total of 5,500 Javelin anti-tank missile systems to Ukraine. (Defence Blog, 04.21.22)
• The Pentagon says Ukraine now has more functional tanks than Russia due to shipments from countries including the Czech Republic. (Axios, 04.21.22)
• “We are telling U.S. representatives directly that the Russian armed forces have the right to consider U.S.-NATO weapons transports passing through Ukrainian territory as legitimate military targets,” said Sergei Koshelev, Deputy Director of the North America Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry. (RIA Novosti, 04.21.22)
• "Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation, one of the tasks of the Russian army has been to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to Crimea," Rustam Minnekayev, acting commander of Russia’s Central Military District, said on April 22. "Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there is also oppression of the Russian-speaking population," Minnekayev said. (Interfax, 04.22.22)
• Ukraine will receive a new shipment of 155mm Caesar self-propelled artillery systems from France. (Defence Blog, 04.22.22)
• In its daily intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, the British MoD said Russia had advanced further towards the towns of Krasnyy Lyman, Buhayikva, Barvinkove, Lyman and Popasna in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. (FT, 04.22.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Russia’s central bank chief warned on April 18 that the consequences of Western sanctions were only beginning to be felt, and Moscow’s mayor warned that 200,000 jobs were at risk in the Russian capital, acknowledgments that undermined Putin’s contention that sanctions had failed to destabilize the Russian economy. (NYT, 04.18.22)
• Moscow on April 16 announced it was banning entry to Prime Minister Boris Johnson and several other top U.K. officials after London imposed sanctions on Russia over its military operation in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.16.22)
• The earliest the proposed EU embargo on Russian oil will be put up for negotiation will be after the final round of the French elections, on April 24. (BNE, 04.18.22)
• Greek authorities say they have seized the Russian oil tanker Pegas, with 19 Russian crew members on board, in the Aegean Sea as part of EU sanctions. (RFE/RL, 04.19.22)
• The UK’s tax authority has said it intends to strip Russia’s national stock exchange of a status that allows investors to claim tax relief. (FT, 04.19.22)
• The global economy will suffer a hit to growth as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the IMF said. The IMF’s forecasts showed global growth of GDP this year of 3.6%, down 0.8%age points since the fund’s January projections. (FT, 04.19.22)
• If Europe and the United States were to impose an oil and gas embargo on Russia, this could knock 15% off Russian economic output by 2027, according to IMF. (FT, 04.19.22)
• Russia plans to take legal steps to recover $300 billion of its foreign currency reserves frozen by western governments in response to the invasion of Ukraine. (FT, 04.19.22)
• The Stellantis car and truck manufacturer suspended work at a manufacturing plant south of Moscow where it builds vans and people carriers under brands including Fiat and Opel. (FT, 04.19.22)
• “The next phase of our work will be to take apart Russia’s war machine, piece by piece, by disrupting their military-industrial complex and its supply chains,” Wally Adeyemo, deputy secretary of the U.S. Treasury, said. (NYT, 04.19.22)
• General Motors is dismissing employees of its Russian office, and a notice has been sent to Russian dealers about the termination of the company’s supply of cars and spare parts, Kommersant reported. (RM, 04.19.22)
• A lack of foreign parts is pushing some Russian car-makers to switch to producing cars that fall short of the Euro-5 emission standard, Kommersant reported on April 19. The Russian government may grant these manufacturers temporary permission to comply with lower emissions standards — as low as Euro-0 — for the cars and trucks they manufacture, according to the daily. (RM, 04.19.22)
• The Russian Foreign Ministry declared 15 diplomats from the Netherlands "persona non grata," giving them two weeks to leave. Moscow also gave the same deadline to the embassy staff of Belgium for its decision to kick out 21 Russian envoys last month. Moscow further gave four Austrian diplomats until April 24 to leave Russia. (MT/AFP, 04.19.22)
• There’s a semiconductor supply crunch, the cost of tooth fillings is spiking in Japan, sofas in Britain are becoming pricier, and American breweries are scrambling to find enough aluminum cans for their beer. All these economic headaches can be traced back to Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. (FP, 04.20.22)
• Tennis players from Russia and Belarus are to be banned from competing at Wimbledon this summer due to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.20.22)
• Russia shipped 3.12 million barrels of crude oil in the week of April 8-April 15, the seventh week of Russia’s invasion. Bloomberg said the volume marked a 25% drop from the previous week. (MT/AFP, 04.20.22)
• Multinational companies continue to pay almost 200,000 employees based in Russia despite pledges to suspend or end activities in the country, raising fears of mass sackings or nationalizations as hopes fade for a swift end to war in Ukraine. (FT, 04.20.22)
• Eugene Tenenbaum, a Canadian businessman who was recently sanctioned by the U.K. government for his links to Roman Abramovich, said he doesn't hold assets on the oligarch's behalf and that he will now seek clarification from the British government on his sanctioning. (WSJ, 04.20.22)
• In the past five months, Yandex’sNasdaq shares have lost as much as two-thirds of their value. (WP, 04.20.22)
• Senior Russian officials have tried to explain to the president that the economic impact of the sanctions will be devastating, according to people familiar with the situation. Putin brushed off the warnings, saying that while Russia would pay a huge cost, the West had left him no alternative but to wage war, the people said. (Bloomberg, 04.20.22)
• The IMF estimates that Russia’s economy will shrink by 8.5% this year. Including oil and gas exports in foreign countries’ sanctions regimes could double Russia's GDP decline to 17% by 2023. (BNE, 04.20.22)
• The founder and co-owner of Lukoil, Vagit Alekperov, has resigned days after he and other Russian tycoons were sanctioned by Australia and the United Kingdom. (RFE/RL, 04.21.22)       
• A court in Moscow has ordered Google to pay an 11 million ruble ($134,500) fine over materials about Russia's ongoing unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on YouTube. The judge also ruled in a separate case that Google must pay 7 million rubles ($87,000) for distributing materials produced by Ukraine's Azov military group and the Ukrainian far-right group Right Sector. (RFE/RL, 04.21.22)       
• Cyprus says it will strip its citizenship from four more Russian billionaires: tycoons Oleg Deripaska and Igor Kesayev; Grigory Beryozkin, the owner of the newspaper Komsomolskaya pravda and RBK media-holding; and Gulbakhor Ismailova, a sister of Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov. (RFE/RL, 04.21.22)  
• The United States imposed another round of sanctions on April 20, this time hitting more than 40 people and entities for allegedly attempting to evade penalties previously imposed on Russia. The latest list includes Transkapitalbank, bitcoin miner BitRiver Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev. (RFE/RL, 04.21.22)       
• The U.S. State Department imposed visa restrictions on more than 600 people, barring them from traveling to the United States. Three Russian officials were among those hit over violations of human rights. In addition, 48 people believed to have violated the sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence of Ukraine were hit with visa restrictions alongside 17 others accused of undermining democracy in Belarus. (RFE/RL, 04.21.22)       
• Russia has ordered the closure of he Estonian and Lithuanian consulates in St. Petersburg, as well as the Latvian consulates in St. Petersburg and Pskov and ordered the expulsion of all their non-Russian staff in retaliation to similar moves by the Baltic states. (MT/AFP, 04.21.22)
• Carlsberg has warned it will book a $1.4 billion writedown from the sale of its Russian business. The group has been earning 9% of its total revenue in the country and employing 8,400 staff at eight breweries. (FT, 04.21.22)
• With Russia under intense pressure from western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, analysts are assessing what the North Korean example can teach western policymakers. “North Korea is instructive in lots of ways, not least that it survives because it has externalised lots of its economy to Russia and China,” said James Byrne of RUSI. (FT, 04.21.22)
• Oil from Russian ports is increasingly being shipped with its destination unknown. In April so far, over 11.1 million barrels were loaded into tankers without a planned route, more than to any country, according to TankerTrackers.com. That is up from almost none before the invasion. (WSJ, 04.21.22)
• Russia imposed personal sanctions against a remarkably odd list of 29 Americans on April 21, including several CEOs of leading U.S. companies, Vice President Kamala Harris and several journalists, in a move that’s unlikely to affect and designed to retaliate against the U.S. and its allies’ robust sanctions against Russian individuals and companies. (Forbes, 04.21.22)
• Export controls implemented by the U.S. and its allies have cut Russia's imports of high-tech goods by more than half—and more export restrictions are being readied, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said. (WSJ, 04.21.22)
• Anatoly Chubais has left the board of directors of AFK Sistema. (Meduza, 04.21.22)
• In 2024, Indonesia will overtake Russia in the list of world’s largest economies, ranked in accordance with their share in global output calculated in terms of purchasing power parity, RBC reported, citing IMF data. Russia’s share in that output will drop from 3.07% in 2021 to 2.72% in 2024, while Indonesia's share of global GDP is expected to rise to 2.61% the same year. As a result, Indonesia will replace Russia as the world’s sixth largest economy in terms of PPP. (RM, 04.22.22)
• Konecranes, a Finnish manufacturer of cranes and lifting equipment, has written off EUR 79 million of orders from Russia and canceled EUR 32 million of sales to the country. (RM, 04.22.22)
• Russian customs officials have classified export and import data to avoid “misinterpretations” ahead of an anticipated drop in trade amid heavy Western sanctions for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.22.22)
• Britain on April 21 announced fresh sanctions targeting Russian Lieutenant Colonel Azatbek Omurbekov, reportedly the head of a Russian military unit that has committed alleged war crimes in Bucha. Three Russian generals are also targeted, as well as defense ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov. The acting emergency situations minister Alexander Chupriyan is also added. Organizations added to the blacklist include the Kalashnikov arms concern. The United Kingdom will increase tariffs by 35% on some Russian and Belarusian goods, including diamonds, and has expanded its list of products subject to import bans to include caviar and silver. (FT, 04.21.22, MT/AFP, 04.22.22)
• Shell has begun the “nightmare” task of extricating itself from its biggest Russian energy project. The UK-headquartered group is in “early stage negotiations” with Cnooc, CNPC and Sinopec over the sale of its 27.5 per cent stake in the Sakhalin-2 LNG project. (FT, 04.22.22)
• The Dutch government has decided to stop importing Russian energy sources — gas, oil and coal — until the end of 2022, according to De Telegraaf. (Meduza, 04.22.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• “The momentum in the negotiation process leaves much to be desired. But the military operation is continuing,” his spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on April 18. (MT/AFP, 04.18.22)
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia presented Kyiv with a draft document outlining its demands as part of peace talks and is waiting for a response. But Zelenskyy said he never received the document. (FT, 04.20.22)
• Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Zelenskyy, offered to negotiate with Russia "without any conditions" to allow for the evacuation of troops and civilians in Mariupol. (Business Insider, 04.20.22)
• Johnson has cast doubt on the prospects for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, comparing it to holding talks with a “crocodile” (Guardian, 04.20.22)
• U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres plans to meet Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin to press for fighting to stop in Ukraine. (AP, 04.22.22)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the Russian Federation is "not against" participation of the countries mentioned by Ukraine in the negotiations as potential guarantors of the purposed treaty on security guarantees for Ukriane, Meduza reported. “They did not identify these countries on paper, but they mentioned  permanent members of the [UN] Security Council, Turkey, Germany. We are not against that, Lavrov said. (Meduza, 04.22.22)
• According to Meduza’s “interlocutors” among Russian and Ukranian officials, Ukranian and Russian negotiators are presently discussing two separate agreements. One agreement is political and it focuses on the neutral, non-nuclear status of Ukraine and on the security guarantees for Ukraine. The second agreement is on "mutual respect for cultures.” The biggest stumbling block is in that Ukraine insists that Russian troops must be withdrawn from all of Ukranian territories occupied during the war, while Russia insists on retaining all of the newly occupied territories as well as on cutting Ukraine from the sea by taking and keeping not only Kherson, but also Mykolaid and Odesa, according to Meduza. (RM, 04.22.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Donald Trump claimed that he told fellow NATO leaders that he might not abide by NATO's Article 5 collective-defense clause if those countries didn't pay more for the alliance. (WP, 04.22.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russia and China cannot at the moment completely abandon settlements in dollars, said Sergey Nosov, head of the Industry and Trade Ministry’s department for Asia, Africa, and Latin America. (TASS, 04.20.22)
• China’s UnionPay payment system said it is wary of cooperating with sanctioned Russian banks due to the risk of being hit with secondary Western sanctions, RBC business portal reported citing unnamed banking sources. (BNE, 04.21.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Some senior Kremlin insiders told Bloomberg that they increasingly share the fear voiced by U.S. intelligence officials that Putin could turn to a limited use of nuclear weapons if faced with failure in a campaign he views as his historic mission. (Bloomberg, 04.20.22)
• Lavrov refused to give an unequivocal answer when asked on April 19 whether Russia would resort to the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons in Ukraine. When told, “Zelenskyy said that Russia plans to use tactical nuclear weapons,” Lavrov responded to an India Today interviewer: “He [Zelenskyy] says many things, depending on what he drinks and what he smokes.” When the interviewer then asked Lavrov “tactical nuclear weapons — will Russia ever use them?” the top diplomat said: “We never mentioned this; he [Zelenskyy] mentioned this.” When asked another follow-up question ‚— “So nuclear is off the table,” Lavrov did not directly confirm or deny, opting instead to refer to Russia’s previous efforts to secure commitments, first from the United States and then within the P5, that a “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” (RM, 04.22.22)

• “The fact that they’ve struggled, conventionally, may put the risk of nuclear/chemical/bio use at a higher level,” U.S. Air Force chief of staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr said of Russia’s war in Ukraine. (NI, 04.20.22)

•  According to the Kremlin, Putin said on the occasion of the test launch of Russia’s 10-warhead liquid fuel ICBM Sarmat on April 21: “This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our Armed Forces, reliably ensuring Russia’s security against external threats, and will be a wakeup call for those who are trying to threaten our country in the frenzy of rabid, aggressive rhetoric.” (RM, 04.21.22)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• Ukraine's Ministry of Digital Transformation has set up what it calls Internet Army: a group of volunteers who are helping Ukraine fight the cyber and information war. About 300,000 volunteers have joined the effort. (WSJ, 04.19.22)
• A large NATO cyber exercise taking place this week includes simulated attacks on power grids and financial-messaging systems. Ukrainian and U.S. cyber defense experts are participating on the same team in this year’s Locked Shields exercise, which began on April 19. (WSJ, 04.20.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• In 2021, 34% of the EU’s gas supply was imported from Russia. In total, the EU imported 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas that year. (FT, 04.19.22)
• A forecast released on April 13 by Germany’s top economic institutes said a full EU energy embargo would trigger a sharp recession in Germany, sending output down 2.2% next year and wiping out more than 400,000 jobs. An immediate EU ban on Russian gas imports would cost Germany €180 billion in lost output this year, the country’s powerful central bank has warned. (FT, 04.21.2, FT, 04.22.22)
• Oil exports from Russian ports bound for EU member states, which historically have been the biggest buyers of Russian crude, have risen to an average of 1.6 million barrels a day so far in April, according to TankerTrackers.com. Similar data from Kpler, another commodities data provider, showed flows rose to 1.3 million a day in April from 1 million in mid-March. (WSJ, 04.21.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Russia earned nearly $1 billion for uranium sales to the United States in 2021. (WP, 04.20.22)
• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• “We are open to an honest and mutually respectful dialogue, to the extent that the United States is ready for this," said Sergei Koshelev, Deputy Director of the North America Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry. He added that the Russian side hopes for a return to "normality” in relations with the United States. (RIA Novosti, 04.21.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Putin signed a law April 16 introducing fines and up to 15 days in jail for Nazi-Soviet comparisons. (MT/AFP, 04.18.22)
• Sberbank’s former first deputy chairman of the board Lev Khasis reportedly fled Russia around the time of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Khasis is at least the fourth publicly known senior Russian executive to make an abrupt exit since late February (MT/AFP, 04.18.22)
• Russian lawmakers threatened U.K.-sanctioned tycoon Oleg Tinkov with criminal prosecution over a blunt anti-war post. Tinkov previously claimed 90% of Russians oppose the “insane” invasion of Ukraine, denouncing the military campaign as a “massacre” waged by a “sh*t army.” (MT/AFP, 04.20.22)
• A court in Moscow has rejected an appeal by the independent radio station Ekho Moskvy against moves by the government to restrict the broadcaster's reach, which led to its decision to close. (RFE/RL, 04.20.22)
• Amendments to Article 20.3.3 of Russia’s Administrative Code to "protect the Armed Forces" took effect March 4. Since then, according to OVD-Info, the article has been applied against 556 people. (MT/AFP 04.21.22)
• Lev Ponomarev, a veteran Russian rights defender who was earlier detained for protesting the Kremlin's military operation in Ukraine, said on April 22 he has "temporarily" left the country. (MT, 04.22.22)
• Russia's Investigative Committee has launched a probe against prominent Russian opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza, accusing him of distributing false information about the Russian military. (RFE/RL, 04.22.22)          
• The internal political department of Russia’s presidential administration reached the conclusion that at present, there are no “good PR scenarios for getting out” — scenarios that would not lead to a decline in the popularity rating of the federal aurhorities, Meduza reported, citing three sources close to the Kremlin staff. (RM, 04.22.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Google Maps made Russia’s strategic facilities visible to users on April 18, revealing the details of the country’s military infrastructure. (MT, 04.18.22)
• At least five people have died and dozens more were injured in a fire at the Aerospace Defense Forces’ Second Central Research Institute in the city of Tver. (MT, 04.21.22) 
• As many as five Russian military enlistment offices have been set on fire since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, independent Russian media reported April 21. (MT/AFP, 04.22.22)
• In a statement on preparations for the May 9 parade in Moscow, the Russian Defense Ministry said: “In total, 11,000 military personnel, 131 units of modern weapons and military equipment, and 77 planes and helicopters are involved in the preparations.” (Defence Blog, 04.22.22)
•  Also see section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The current area of forest fires burning across Russia is twice as large as that of the same time last year. (MT/AFP, 04.20.22)
• A former top manager at Russian gas giant Novatek, Sergei Protosenya, his wife, and his daughter have been found dead in a rented villa in Spain, local media reported on April 21. (RFE/RL, 04.21.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• In a television debate before the final vote of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, has accused his far-right rival Marine Le Pen of being beholden to Putin. Le Pen agreed on the need to help Ukraine in its war against the Russian invasion, but she stood by her rejection of sanctions on the Russian oil and gas. (FT, 04.20.22)
• Pope Francis has announced that a meeting set for June with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, has been canceled so as not to sow "confusion." (MT, 04.22.22)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine has completed a questionnaire that will form a starting point for the European Union to decide on membership for Kyiv. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen handed the questionnaire to Zelenskyy during her visit to Kyiv on April 8th, pledging a speedier start to Ukraine’s bid to become a member. (Euroactiv, 04.17.22)
• Officers of the State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine opened 154 criminal proceedings under the article on treason and 81 proceedings on suspicion of collaboration since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (Korrespondent, 04.15.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Kyrgyzstan has banned the "Z" symbol from being used during Victory Day celebrations on May 9. (RFE/RL, 04.22.22)        
• Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Ruslan Kazakbaev has resigned. (RFE/RL, 04.22.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• “May there be peace for war-torn Ukraine, so sorely tried by the violence and destruction of this cruel and senseless war into which it was dragged,” Pope Francis said on April 17. (RFE/RL, 04.17.22)
• “Too many Chinese strategic interests rely on the Moscow relationship, to do with the stability of their own border with Russia; the fact that China doesn’t want to focus on a Russia problem, but focus on the United States regionally and globally; and the fact that China sees strategic utility in Russia being a rolling strategic diversion for the Americans, the Middle East, north Africa and Europe,” according to former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd. (FT, 04.18.22.)
• Any war has to have guns and ideas," said Cyril Hovorun, professor of ecclesiology, international relations and ecumenism at University College Stockholm. "In this war the Kremlin has provided the guns, and I believe the church is providing the ideas." (WP, 04.18.22)
• A resident of Russia’s city of Yekaterinburg was apprehended by local police for picketing against Russia’s war in Ukraine with a sign that displayed a quote from Putin’s remarks at the G20 summit in 2018: “It is easier to conceal once’s failures in economy and social policies with a war.” (RM, 04.19.22)
• Russian blogger Ilya Kharlamov said when import substitution is discussed in Russia, “by this we mean the replacement of American and European products with Chinese ones.” (Vazhnye Istorii, 04.19.22)
• “This letter Z symbolizes tragedy and grief for both Russia and Ukraine,” ex-Crimean prosecutor Natalia Poklonskaya, who had staunchly supported Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, said in an interview with a popular YouTube channel on April 19. (MT/AFP, 04.20.22)
• Acting Commander of the Central Military District Rustam Minnekayev on April 22 drew a historical parallel between today's events and the times of the Second World War. “Apparently, we are now at war with the whole world, as it was in the Great Patriotic War, the whole of Europe, the whole world was against us. And it's the same thing presently; they never liked Russia,” he said. (Kommersant, 04.22.22)