Russia in Review, April 11–18, 2025

5 Things to Know

  1. Marco Rubio warned on April 18 the U.S. will walk away from efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal unless there are clear signs of progress in the next several days, according to Reuters and WP. Trump then said Rubio was "right in saying" that the U.S. wants to see the Russia-Ukraine war come to an end. Asked how to identify how many days that would be, Trump said, "No specific numbers of days, but quickly, we want to get it done,” according to NBC. On the prior day, Rubio and other U.S. officials1 attended a meeting with European leaders in Paris where they outline of terms to end the fighting and ease sanctions on Moscow in the event of a lasting ceasefire, according to Bloomberg. The proposal would effectively freeze the war, with Ukrainian territories now occupied by Russia remaining under Moscow’s control while Kyiv’s aspirations of joining NATO would also be off the table, according to this news agency. Rubio said he spoke with Sergei Lavrov to brief him on elements of the U.S. peace framework and that the Europeans had a central role to play in any peace pact, especially as their sanctions on Russia would likely need to be lifted to secure an accord, according to Reuters. Speaking on April 15 Trump’s special envoy Witkoff said Putin is open to a “permanent peace” deal with Ukraine and claimed the peace deal currently under discussion involves “five territories,” referring to Ukrainian regions currently occupied by Russian forces. In response to Witkoff’s comments, Zelensky said that recognizing any of Ukraine’s occupied territories as Russian is a “red line” for Kyiv.
  2. Two Russian ballistic missiles struck Ukraine’s city of Sumy on Palm Sunday, killing 36 and injuring over 119. Donald Trump called the strike “horrible,” but noted that he was told Russia “made a mistake” and his administration told U.S. allies it couldn’t sign a G7 draft statement denouncing the April 13 attack. Trump also blamed Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky2 for the war,3 which he claimed to have left millions dead.4 For his part, Zelenskyy rejected Trump’s accusations and urged the U.S. leader to visit Ukraine and see the devastation caused by Russia himself. Russia’s Sergei Lavrov admitted to the strike, but claimed that it was targeting a gathering of Ukrainian military. Ukrainian authorities insisted Russian forces targeted civilians in the strike on Sumy, but An Ukrainian soldier described to WP how he was sitting at a military medal ceremony in a university building basement Sunday when two Russian ballistic missiles tore through the surrounding area in Sumy. Ukrainian government also fired Volodymyr Artiukh from the post of the Sumy Oblast governor following the strikes.5
  3. Russia gained 142 square miles of Ukraine's territory (about 1 1/2 Nantucket islands) in the past month, and its overall pace of advance has picked back up this week, according to the April 16 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. This week’s gain of 50 square miles is nearly double the prior week’s advance of 29 square miles, according to the card. As of April 16 Russian forces occupied 112,581 square km (43,468 square miles), which constituted 18.65% of Ukraine’s territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Ohio, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map.
  4. Russia’s ruble has surged to become the best performing global currency, posting this year’s strongest gains against the dollar to outpace even the traditional safe haven of gold according to Bloomberg. The ruble has strengthened 38% versus the dollar on the over-the-counter market since the beginning of this year, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. The Russian ruble equaled 0.01216 U.S. dollars on April 14, 2025, appreciating by 3% since the launch of Russia’s full-scale invasion into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, according to RM’s calculations.

  5. Americans are now split on whether Russia is an ‘enemy,’ according to Pew.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • For nearly 20 months, a Reuters investigation found, millions of North Korean shells have made their way to the Russian units along the frontlines. At times over the past year, the vast majority of shells fired by some Russian units were from North Korea, Reuters found. North Korea has also dispatched ballistic missiles as well as long-range artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems The Open Source Centre, tracked 64 shipments over 20 months carrying nearly 16,000 containers and millions of artillery rounds for use against Ukraine (Reuters, 04.15.25)
  • North Korea's involvement in Russia's war on Ukraine has generated more than $20 billion for its economy so far, according to a recent estimate, and is helping Pyongyang to acquire even more high-tech weapons. The South's Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) think tank published a report outlining the potential value of North Korea's military cooperation with Russia as it supports Moscow's ongoing Ukraine invasion. (Newsweek, 04.16.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

  • Iran’s foreign minister has called for Russia to play a role in high-stakes negotiations over the fate of Tehran’s nuclear programs, as he cast doubt on US intentions ahead a new round of talks. Speaking on April 18 alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Abbas Araqchi said he still believed an agreement was possible. The Iranian diplomat was set to meet with White House special envoy Steve Witkoff in Rome on April 19, for a second round of talks over Iran’s atomic programs. (RFE/RL, 04.18.25)
    • “The Russian Federation remains ready to do everything within our capabilities to contribute to the settlement of the situation by political and diplomatic means,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 04.16.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

  • Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces executed at least one unarmed Ukrainian prisoner of war near Rozdolne (northeast of Velyka Novosilka) on April 11.(ISW, 04.16.25)
  • As part of the exchange, Ukraine returned 909 bodies of fallen servicemen. Russia received 41 dead. (Media Zone, 04.18.25)
  • Residents in Russia’s Kursk region accused authorities of neglect during Ukraine’s 2024-2025 occupation, enduring shortages of food, water, and medical care. Evacuees protested poor conditions in shelters, with 150,000 displaced. More than 2,000 residents of the southwestern Kursk region have been reunited with family members (FT, 04.14.25, MT/AFP, 04.14.25)
  • The Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union (UHHRU) formally lodged a complaint against the Russian Federation at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) over the issue of Russia’s forced passportization and adoption of Ukrainian children. (ISW, 04.17.25)
  • The Russian government’s Family Mortgage program has started offering subsidized loans to Russian citizens who want to buy property in Ukrainian towns -- including some under Kyiv’s control -- alongside cities within Russia (RFE/RL, 04.16.25)
  • The European Commission won’t extend trade measures giving Ukraine free access to the EU market, trying instead to negotiate broader trade liberalisation by a tight June 5 deadline. (FT, 04.16.25)
  • Russian authorities are carrying out a sweeping campaign to seize homes in occupied Mariupol that belong to Ukrainians who fled from Russia’s invasion or were killed in the fighting, according to a BBC Verify investigation. At least 5,700 homes have been earmarked for seizure. (MT/AFP, 04.18.25)
  • Ukraine secured a $3 billion credit from Japan under an agreement signed by Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko and Japanese Ambassador Masashi Nakagome. The deal, valued at 471.9 billion yen, aims to support Ukraine’s financial needs amid ongoing challenges. The Finance Ministry confirmed the loan, which underscores Japan’s continued economic backing following Russia’s invasion. Details on fund allocation or repayment terms were not disclosed.” (RBC.ua, 04.18.25)
  • For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

  • Russia gained 142 square miles of Ukraine's territory (about 1 1/2 Nantucket islands) in the past month, and its overall pace of advance has picked back up this week. This week’s gain of 50 square miles is nearly double the prior week’s advance of 29 square miles, according to the 04.16.25 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card(RM, 04.16.25)
  • As of 04.16.25 Russian forces occupied 112,581 square km (43468 square miles), which constituted 18.65% of the Ukrainian territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Ohio, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map. (RM, 04.17.25)
  • On Friday, April 11, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Kalynove, near Novooleksandrivka and Kotlyarivka. (RM, 04.18.25)

Saturday, April 12, 2025

  • Ukraine’s military said Russia had launched more than eight dozen drones overnight on April 12, with most of them either shot down or intercepted with electronic jamming. Russia’s Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said that more than 150 Ukrainian drones had been launched, including at five energy facilities. (RFE/RL, 04.12.25)
  • On Saturday, April 12, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in the Kursk region, near Yampolivka and Valentynivka. (RM, 04.18.25)

Sunday, April 13, 2025

  • Two Russian ballistic missiles struck Ukraine’s city of Sumy on Palm Sunday, killing 36 and injuring over 119. Donald Trump called the strike “horrible,” but noted that he was told Russia “made a mistake.” Trump also blamed Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky for the war as well as reportedly claimed that he had set a deadline for Putin on agreeing to a ceasefire in the war,6 which he claimed to have left millions dead.7 Some top officials in the Trump administration were more explicit than Trump in their criticism of Russia over the strike, according to NYT. For instance, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine Kieth Kellogg asserted that Russian forces had crossed “any line of decency,” while his Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the strike as “horrifying.” For his part, Zelenskyy rejected Trump’s accusations and urged the U.S. leader to visit Ukraine and see the devastation caused by Russia himself. Russia’s Sergei Lavrov admitted to the strike, but claimed that it was targeting a gathering of Ukrainian military. (RM, 04.14.25)
    • Russia has admitted to carrying out the attack, but blamed Kyiv for the casualties. Moscow’s defense ministry said it had struck a gathering of Ukrainian military commanders the previous day and claimed, without evidence, to have killed more than 60 servicemen. It said Ukraine’s government was “continuing to use the Ukrainian population as a human shield by placing military facilities and holding events with members of the military in the center of a thickly populated city.” (FT, 04.14.25)
    • From the hospital where his wounded stepdaughter is being held in intensive care, Ukrainian soldier Oleksandr described how he was sitting at a military medal ceremony in a university building basement Sunday when two Russian ballistic missiles tore through the surrounding area in Sumy. (WP, 04.16.25)
    • An Ukrainian MP and a city mayor in the Sumy region alleged that a local Ukrainian military ceremony had been arranged for Sunday morning, according to this newspaper. Also, The Ukrainian government approved the dismissal of Volodymyr Artiukh as the Sumy Oblast governor, according to Kyiv Independent. (RM, 04.17.25)
    • Trump’s administration told allies it couldn’t sign a G7 draft statement denouncing the Sumy attack as it is “working to preserve the space to negotiate peace,” according to people familiar with diplomatic correspondence, as meetings continue between the White House and the Kremlin. (Bloomberg, 04.15.25)
  • On Sunday, April 13, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Yampolivka, Valentynivka, Preobrazhenka and Udachne. (RM, 04.18.25)

Monday, April 14, 2025

  • The Russian Defense Ministry reported that Russian forces had shot down a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet. “Air defenses shot down a Ukrainian Air Force F-16, eight JDAM precision-guided bombs, seven HIMARS rockets supplied by the United States, and 207 fixed-wing drones,” the ministry said. (Meduza, 04.14.25)
  • Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said that it arrested two Moldovan citizens and two Russians accused of planning and carrying out bomb attacks in Russia after Ukrainian intelligence services recruited them in Moldova. (MT/AFP, 04.14.25)
  • On Monday, April 14, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Guyevo and Rozdolne. (RM, 04.18.25)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

  • A Ukrainian drone attack killed an 85-year-old woman and injured nine people in the Russian city of Kursk near the border with Ukraine, regional authorities said on April 15. (RFE/RL, 04.15.25)
  • A military court in Moscow sentenced five young Russians to lengthy prison terms on terrorism charges for allegedly setting fire to a helicopter on behalf of Ukraine, authorities said Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 04.15.25)
  • Ukraine's National Guard announced on April 15 the formation of two new army corps on the basis of two existing brigades. The 1st "Azov" Corps of the National Guard stated on April 15 that it will consist of four existing brigades and one new brigade. Ukraine has yet to announce details about the second new corps. (ISW, 04.15.25 )
  • On Tuesday, April 15, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian armed forces regained their positions near Vidrodzhennia and in Dniproenergia while the Russian armed forces advanced near Nadiyivka and Sukhа Balka. (RM, 04.18.25)

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

  • Overnight Russian drone strikes on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa injured three people and damaged apartment blocks and warehouses on April 16, according to state emergency services. (RFE/RL, 04.16.25)
  • Russian attacks in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson killed at least one person and wounded three others on Wednesday, officials said. (MT/AFP, 04.16.25)
  • Ukrainian drones attacked the city of Shuya in central Russia’s Ivanovo region on Wednesday, local authorities said, with unconfirmed media reports suggesting the air assault targeted a military base. (MT/AFP, 04.16.25)
  • On Wednesday, April 16, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Kotliarivka and Zaporizhzhia. (RM, 04.18.25)
  • Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Wednesday that it thwarted a Ukrainian plot to assassinate a Russian-installed official in occupied Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.16.25)

Thursday, April 17, 2025

  • Russian drone and artillery attacks killed at least five people, including a child and an elderly woman, and injured dozens of others in the southeastern Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk, local Governor Serhiy Lysak said on Telegram. (RFE/RL, 04.17.25)
  • Russia’s armed forces attempted to stage a major assault in the southern Zaporizhzhia region overnight, the Ukrainian military said Thursday, adding that its troops managed to repel the attack. According to the defense forces of southern Ukraine, at least 320 Russian soldiers attacked five villages southeast of the city of Zaporizhzhia starting at around 6:00 p.m. local time Wednesday. The Russian troops were said to have used 40 armored vehicles, a dozen buggies and three tanks. (MT/AFP, 04.17.25)

  • Russian forces recently conducted a roughly battalion-sized mechanized assault across a wide front in western Zaporizhia Oblast, representing an inflection in recently observed Russian mechanized assault tactics. (ISW, 04.17.25)

  • On Thursday, April 17, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Rozlyv and in Kostiantynopil. (RM, 04.18.25)

Friday, April 18, 2025

  • A 30-day moratorium on Russian strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has expired, the Kremlin said Friday, ending a short-lived pause that was announced after a call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. “A month has indeed passed,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “As of this time, there have been no other instructions from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, President Putin.” (MT/AFP, 04.18.25)
  • Russian strikes killed at least two people and wounded 27 others overnight in the Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv and Sumy, authorities said early Friday. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said one person was killed in his city during the attacks, which "according to preliminary information… were carried out using ballistic missiles with cluster munitions." (MT/AFP, 04.18.25)
  • Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers dismissed Ivan Havryliuk as First Deputy Defense Minister, following reports of a conflict with Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Tatiana Nikolaenko, a journalist and member of the Defense Ministry’s Anti-Corruption Council, had earlier alleged tensions between the officials. Havryliuk, appointed to the role in May 2024, was removed without official public explanation. (Korrespondent.net, 04.18.25)

Military aid to Ukraine 

Friday, April 11, 2025

  • Ukraine's European partners announced new military aid during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting on April 11.
    • German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Germany will provide Ukraine with four IRIS-T air defense systems, 33 missiles for the systems, 120 man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), 25 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 15 Leopard tanks, 14 artillery systems, and 130,000 155mm artillery shells. The German Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced Germany and the United Kingdom (UK) are establishing an electronic warfare (EW) coalition for Ukraine.
    • The UK MoD announced a military aid package worth 450 million pounds (about $588 million) drones, radars, and anti-tank mines.
    • Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that Estonia will deliver 10,000 155mm artillery shells;
    • Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans stated that the Netherland will provide 150 million euros (about $170 million) to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses;
    • Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė announced that Lithuania will allocate 20 million euros (about $22 million) to Ukraine for the purchase of ammunition. (ISW, 04.11.25)
  • When military leaders from roughly 50 nations met for the session of the Ukraine Defense Contact in Brussels on Friday to discuss aid shipments to Kyiv, one was noticeably absent: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Instead of attending in person, Mr. Hegseth dialed in and participated virtually. It was the first time since the group's creation three years ago that the Pentagon's top civilian was not physically present for an in-person meeting of the group. (NYT, 04.12.25)

Saturday, April 12, 2025

  • Spain proposed setting up a new defense fund to provide non-refundable grants to beef up Europe’s defense lines and provide support for Ukraine using Russia’s immobilized central bank assets. (Bloomberg, 04.12.25)

Monday, April 14, 2025

  • Germany's likely incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said Sunday that the country is open to supplying Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles, but only with the support of its European partners, according to DW. (Meduza, 04.14.25)

    • Russia said on Thursday it would treat Ukrainian strikes on transport infrastructure using German Taurus long-range missiles as "direct participation" in the conflict by Berlin. (MT/AFP, 04.18.25) Compared to Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, Taurus stands out in part because it can destroy concrete bridges (e.g. the Kerch bridge) thanks to its unique fuse. That explains why Russian officials have been particularly zealous in warning Germany not to supply these missiles.

Friday, April 11, 2025

  • If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios. (Axios, 04.11.25)

Saturday, April 12, 2025

  • There is one Western company that Russian officials make no secret about missing: Boeing. The aviation giant’s planes play a critical role in Russia’s economy, connecting its far-flung cities. Until the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Boeing sold and maintained planes in Russia and operated a major design center there. It also bought much of its titanium, a key material for modern jets, from Russia. (WSJ, 04.12.25)

    • Russia has asked the US to let it buy Boeing Co. aircraft using money from billions of dollars in frozen state assets once there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine, according to a person in Moscow familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 04.16.25)

Monday, April 14, 2025

  • Asked on April 14 if he plans to impose more sanctions on Russia, Trump said: "I already have sanctions on Russia.(Axios, 04.14.25)

  • Zelenskyy said Russia could only be stopped through “tangible sanctions against sectors that finance the Russian killing machine.” (FT, 04.14.25)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

  • The European Union is exploring ways to extend its sanctions against Russia without needing the support of all 27 member states. (Bloomberg, 04.15.25)

  • Dmitry Medvedev-linked yacht Universe ($100M) renamed Casino Royale, left Russian territorial waters and sailed toward Miami via Gibraltar. The 74-meter yacht Casino Royale (formerly ‘Vselennaya’), valued at $100 million and once linked to Dmitry Medvedev, was acquired by U.S. businessman John Staluppi, Luxury Launches reported. The Moscow Times highlighted the sale, underscoring continued scrutiny of high-value assets tied to Russian elites amid Western sanctions targeting overseas holdings.” (iStories, 04.18.25) (The Moscow Times, 04.15.25)

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

  • White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump made it "very clear" that US-Russian economic partnerships could be an incentive for Russia to end its war against Ukraine, but that the United States "needs to see a ceasefire first"—likely in reference to a temporary or permanent full ceasefire in Ukraine. (ISW, 04.16.25)

Thursday, April 17, 2025

  • Finland will keep its land border with Russia closed indefinitely due to continued concerns over a potential surge in asylum seekers allegedly encouraged by Moscow, the Finnish government announced. (MT/AFP, 04.16.25)

  • Austria’s new finance minister, Markus Marterbauer, signaled support for using frozen Russian central bank assets to provide further help for Ukraine to defend itself. “I fundamentally consider these deliberations reasonable,” he told Bloomberg on Thursday. (Bloomberg, 04.17.25)
  • Vladimir Putin has ordered his government to draw up a new legal framework for companies seeking to invest in Russia. Meanwhile Russia’s Finance Ministry has prepared a set of preliminary proposals aimed at bringing Western companies back to the country. The proposals include requirements to localize part of the firms' production and agree to technology transfers intended to boost productivity.. (Meduza, 04.17.25, (Bloomberg, 04.17.25)
  • President Vladimir Putin signed a decree last month transferring the business of Ariston Thermo in Russia back to this Italian company after intense lobbying by high-ranking Italians. (FT, 04.17.25)
  • According to a study by the Center for a New American Security, in 2024, 70% of all US sanctions were directed against Russia. The US sanctions list (SDN-list) for “ties to Russia” included 2,196 entities, of which 1,681 are Russian citizens and organizations, including more than 50 banks. The remaining 515 individuals represent 55 other countries. This data underscores the central role of anti-Russian measures in Washington’s sanctions policy. (Kommersant.ru, 04.18.25)
  • IKEA has registered a trademark in the Russian Federation. The company filed four applications back in 2023, but only this year Rospatent approved two of them. Earlier, TASS reported that 90% of Russians are waiting for IKEA to return to the country. (Gazeta.ru, 04.17.25)
  • The Russian authorities are planning to use the canned food producer Glavprodukt—which was owned by an American investor until Moscow seized it in October—to supply food to the Russian army(Meduza, 04.17.25)

Friday, April 18, 2025

  • Rubio on Friday signaled that any future peace deal could involve a rollback of sanctions against Moscow—a point of divergence with European powers, which have recently agreed to tighten rather than ease economic pressure on Russia. “Part of the sanctions against Russia—many of them are European sanctions that we can’t lift, if that were ever to be part of a deal,” he said. (MT/AFP, 04.18.25)
  • Raiffeisen Bank International, the largest western bank still doing business in Russia, has halted attempts to sell its unit in the country amid a rapprochement between Washington and Moscow, according to people familiar with the situation. (FT, 04.18.25)
  • The United States has told Russian envoys that it will only consider resuming direct air travel between the two countries if progress is made toward a ceasefire in Ukraine, a senior Russian official said Thursday. “The Americans still believe there needs to be progress on the Ukrainian track before any talk of restoring air travel,” Yury Ushakov, a foreign policy aide to President Vladimir Putin, told state TV journalist Pavel Zarubin. (MT/AFP, 04.18.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Friday, April 11, 2025

  • White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on April 11 that the Putin-Witkoff meeting on that day is another step in the negotiating process toward a ceasefire and an "ultimate peace deal" in the war in Ukraine Dmitriev stated that his meeting with Witkoff was "productive." (ISW, 04.11.25)
  • Trump’s envoy to Ukraine has said the country could be partitioned “almost like Berlin after World War Two” as part of a peace deal. General Keith Kellogg suggested that British and French troops could adopt zones of control in the west of the country as part of a “reassurance force”, with Russia’s army in the occupied east. Between them would be Ukrainian forces and a demilitarized zone. (Times of London, 04.11.25)
    • Kellogg first stated that Ukraine could be divided like Berlin. However, he clarified that this referred to a post-war zone of responsibility for allied forces, not the division of the country, according to a post by Kellogg on the social media platform X. (RBC, 04.12.25)
    • Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik responded to Kellogg's statements on April 12 and reiterated the Kremlin's objection to the presence of any peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine (ISW, 04.12.25)
  • While Europe was ignoring "the root causes of the current situation, the U.S. wants to get to the heart of the problem," Sergei Lavrov told journalists after a meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Foreign Ministers. "President Trump has repeatedly said in public that drawing Ukraine into NATO was a mistake, which probably played the decisive role in the ongoing events despite many years of warnings from Moscow," Lavrov said. He said Zelensky will have to accept territorial concessions and that it is "impossible" for Ukraine to return to its 1991 borders (WP, 04.11.25, ISW, 04.11.25)

Sunday, April 13, 2025

  • On April 13 Zelensky spoke to "60 Minutes" suggesting that the Trump administration was operating in an "altered reality" in terms of the origins of the war. "First and foremost, we did not launch an attack," said Zelensky. "It seems to me that the vice president is somehow justifying Putin's actions," Zelensky said of Vance.  "I tried to explain, 'You can't look for something in the middle. There is an aggressor and there is a victim.” Zelensky also invited Trump to visit Ukraine to see the devastation. (Axios, NYT, 04.14.25)
  • Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that ongoing US-Russian negotiations are unlikely to result in "lightning-fast results.” He said "everything is moving very well" regarding US-Russian bilateral talks and discussions about the war in Ukraine but that there will likely not be immediate results. (ISW, 04.13.25)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

  • Trump’s special envoy Witkoff said Putin is open to a “permanent peace” deal with Ukraine, but did not indicate whether any of the Kremlin leader’s previous demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine had changed. Witkoff met with Putin in St. Petersburg last week, their third meeting since Trump returned to the White House in January. Following that five-hour discussion, where Putin aides Yuri Ushakov and Kirill Dmitriev were also present, the Trump envoy said he sees a peace deal “emerging.” “Putin’s request is to have a permanent peace here. So, beyond the ceasefire, we got an answer to that,” Witkoff told Fox News in a Monday interview, adding, “It took a while for us to get to this place.” Witkoff said the peace deal currently under discussion involves “five territories,” referring to Ukrainian regions currently occupied by Russian forces, but emphasized that the talks go beyond that—including Moscow’s demand that Ukraine abandon its NATO membership bid. (MT/AFP, 04.15.25)
    • In response to Witkoff’s comments, Zelensky said Tuesday that recognizing any of Ukraine’s occupied territories as Russian is a “red line” for Kyiv. “Once again, the representatives in question are discussing issues beyond their competence,” he added, as quoted by Interfax Ukraine. (Meduza, 04.15.25
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists that there are “no clear outlines” of an agreement between Russia and the U.S. regarding Ukraine, “but there is political will to move towards a settlement.” (Meduza, 04.15.25)
  • Sergei Lavrov told Kommersant on April 14 that the current Ukrainian government is "unconstitutional" and that Russia "cannot give [Russian speakers living in occupied Ukraine] up" following the illegal and sham referendums Russia conducted in the four oblasts to join Russia in Fall 2022. Lavrov reiterated that Putin "very clearly outlined" Russia's demands for a future peace agreement to end the war during Putin's speech on June 14, 2024, and stated that these June 2024 demands were "not some kind of request." Lavrov stated that there are "no secrets" about Russia's demands and reiterated the importance of addressing the "root causes" of the war in a future peace agreement. (ISW, 04.15.25)
  • A peaceful solution in Ukraine implies its non-nuclear neutral status, the abolition of discriminatory laws and recognition of the sovereignty of Russia's current borders. This was stated to journalists by the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergei Naryshkin. "As for Russia's strategic goals after the end of the conflict, they remain the same. The terms of the peace agreement certainly provide for Ukraine's non-nuclear, neutral status, demilitarization and denazification of the Ukrainian state, the abolition of all discriminatory laws that were adopted after the coup d'etat in 2014," Naryshkin said. (TASS, 04.15.25)

Thursday, April 17, 2025

  • Journalists asked Trump how long the United States would wait for a response from Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the ceasefire proposal, and whether the US would impose new sanctions on Russia. “We’ll see what that will be. We're going to be hearing from them this week. Very shortly, actually, and we'll see. But we want the death and the killing to stop," Trump responded. (RBC.ua, 04.17.25)
  • Trump on Thursday said he doesn't hold Volodymyr Zelensky "responsible" for Russia's invasion of his country but continued to criticize the pro-Western Ukrainian leader. "I don't hold Zelensky responsible but I'm not exactly thrilled with the fact that that war started," Trump said at the White House alongside visiting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. "I'm not blaming him, but what I am saying is that I wouldn't say he's done the greatest job, OK? I am not a big fan." "I spoke with President Putin a lot about it. Now I'm trying to get him to stop because, as you know, Russia is a lot bigger. It's a bigger military force," Trump added.(MT/AFP, 04.17.25, (RBC.ua, 04.17.25)

  • “I believe Mr. Witkoff has adopted the strategy of the Russian side,” Zelensky said on April 17. “Consciously or not, he is spreading Russian narratives. Either way, it does not help. And I do not see any mandate for him to speak about Ukrainian territories. These lands belong to our people, to our nation, and to the future generations of Ukrainians.” (Kyiv Independent, 04.18.25)

Friday, April 18, 2025

  • At talks in Paris, the US presented allies with proposals to enable a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, including an outline of terms to end the fighting and ease sanctions on Moscow in the event of a lasting ceasefire. The contours of the US plan was shared during meetings in the French capital on Thursday, according to European officials familiar with the matter. The proposal would effectively freeze the war, with Ukrainian territories now occupied by Russia remaining under Moscow’s control, said the people. Kyiv’s aspirations of joining NATO would also be off the table. The people declined to provide further specifics, citing the confidential nature of the discussions. The Paris talks included a meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and US envoy Steve Witkoff, as well as discussions among Marco Rubio and national security advisers and negotiators from France, Germany, the UK and Ukraine. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, the U.S. envoy on the war in Ukraine, also participated in the talks. The talks were the first high-level, in-person talks in the US’s efforts that have included European powers directly. (Bloomberg, 04.18.25)
    • Rubio said the talks were “very positive” and that the involvement of European countries had been constructive. Another meeting in a similar format will be held next week in London to allow the US to get Russian input and for Ukraine to decide on its positions. European officials had been "very helpful and constructive with their ideas,” Rubio also said Rubio said the Europeans had a central role to play in any peace pact, especially as their sanctions on Russia would likely need to be lifted to secure an accord. He said it was clear that a peace deal would be difficult to strike but there needed to be signs it could be done soon. “We need to figure out here now, within a matter of days, whether this is doable in the short term, because if it's not, then I think we're just going to move on," Rubio said. (Reuters, 04.18.25, FT, 04.18.25, RFE/RL, 04.18.25)
    • European officials also wanted to know what actions the Trump administration is considering if it doesn’t get progress from Putin, and they wanted to impress the need on Washington to harden its position toward Moscow, including through a “large scale” sanctions package that Trump had signaled previously that he was considering, another senior official said. Reuters, 04.18.25)
  1. President Donald Trump will abandon attempting to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine within a “matter of days”8 unless he sees clear signs a deal is possible, the top US diplomat has said. Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, said on Friday that Washington would not pursue the Ukraine talks “for weeks or months” and would focus on “other priorities” if there was not a breakthrough soon. “If it’s not possible, if we’re so far apart that this is not going to happen, then I think the president is at a point where he is going to say, well, we’re done,” Rubio told reporters on Friday. (FT, 04.18.25)
  2. On April 18 Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that Rubio was "right in saying" that the U.S. wants to see the Russia-Ukraine war come to an end. The president's comments came in response to a question about Rubio saying earlier today that the administration will have to "move on" from peace talks if progress isn't made in the coming days. Asked how to identify how many days that would be, Trump said, "No specific numbers of days, but quickly, we want to get it done." (NBC, 04,18.25)

  3. On April 18 Trump said was adamant he was not being “played” in talks to end the war in Ukraine and sounded a confident note he would be able to close the deal after Rubio indicated the clock was ticking on negotiations. “We’re going to get it stopped, ideally. Now, if for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say ‘you’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people and we’re just going to take a pass.’ But hopefully we won’t have to do that,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I think we have a good chance of solving the problem, however,” Trump added. (The Hill, 04.18.25)

  4. The United States is optimistic it can put an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, Vice President JD Vance said on Friday as he met Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for the second time in 24 hours. “I want to update the prime minister on some of the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine… even in the past 24 hours, we think we have some interesting things to report on," Vance told reporters sitting alongside Meloni. (Reuters, 04.18.25)
  5. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, said on Friday that there had been “progress” in talks but that “many difficult discussions still lie ahead.” (FT, 04.18.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

  • In comments made on April 14, Trump blamed the war on the following individuals in the following order: Putin, Biden, Zelensky. “You have millions of people dead. Millions of people dead because of three people… Let's say Putin number one, but let's say Biden, who had no idea what the hell he was doing, number two, and Zelensky. And all I can do is try and stop it," he said, according to Axios. Trump said the U.S. was "making progress" in its ceasefire push. (Axios, 04.14.25)

    • “He’s always looking to purchase missiles,” Trump said of Zelenskiy while meeting with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele in the Oval Office. “Listen, when you start a war, you know that you can win the war, right? You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles.” (Bloomberg, 04.14.25)
  • Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Head Sergey Naryshkin claimed that Poland and the Baltic states "should understand" that the "first to suffer" in the event of "NATO aggression" against the Union State of Russia and Belarus will be the Polish and Baltic political circles that have spoken about building up their defenses along their borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast. Naryshkin claimed that European states, such as France, the UK, and Germany, are escalating the war in Ukraine, so Russia "needs to act preemptively" and "is ready for this." (ISW, 04.15.25)
  • In recent weeks, Russian troops carried out a series of military exercises off the coast of Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave surrounded by NATO members. Moscow’s forces practiced using hypersonic missiles to fend off a hypothetical attack by air and sea. “It’s clear the Russians use Kaliningrad to exert psychological pressure on the West and NATO,” said Konrad Muzyka, director of Poland-based Rochan Consulting, which focuses on the Russian military. “Even though the likelihood is remote, the Iskander is nuclear capable and could be used by the Russians to strike Stockholm, Berlin or Warsaw.” (WSJ, 04.18.25)
  • Military leaders from several nations are quietly holding under-the-radar talks at the headquarters of the Turkish Navy in Ankara this week, focusing on Black Sea security in the event of a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.16.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?9

  • People's Republic of China (PRC) military officials reportedly visited the frontline in Ukraine to glean insights for future warfare. An unnamed former Western intelligence official told Reuters in an article published on April 11 that the PRC authorized an unspecified number of PRC military officers to visit the frontline in Ukraine alongside the Russian military to gain tactical insights from the war in Ukraine but did not specify when these visits may have occurred. ISW cannot independently verify this report. (ISW, 04.12.25)
    • Two Chinese nationals captured by Ukrainian forces, Wang Guangjun and Zhang Renbo, claimed they were deceived into fighting for Russia. Wang alleged recruiters promised a medical rehab role but forced him into military service; Zhang said he traveled as a tourist, then coerced into construction work that turned into combat. (Meduza, 04.15.25)
    • Two unnamed US officials familiar with US intelligence and the former Western intelligence official told Reuters that roughly 100 to 200 Chinese nationals are fighting for the Russian military as "mercenaries" independent from the Chinese government. (ISW, 04.12.25)
  • Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Thursday that Ukraine’s intelligence community has collected evidence that China is supplying weapons to the Russian military. Zelensky said his administration would “speak in greater detail next week” about Beijing’s involvement, but he told reporters that Kyiv has proof that China is providing Russia with gunpowder and artillery. (Meduza, 04.18.25)
    • Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told journalists on Friday that there are no grounds to support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s claim that Beijing is supplying weapons to Moscow. (Meduza, 04.18.25)
  • Moscow’s proposal to transport Russian gas via Kazakhstan as an alternative to the shelved Power of Siberia 2 pipeline has failed to gain traction in Beijing. The plan envisioned the delivery of up to 45 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian natural gas annually to China via Kazakhstan. But Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said the project would not go forward, citing excessive costs. (MT/AFP, 04.17.25)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

  • When asked: “What will happen after the New START Treaty expires in February 2026? Do you think there is still time to develop a replacement? Or are we headed for an arms race?” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with Kommersant. “Why would we need one? President Vladimir Putin has said clearly that we will never allow ourselves to be dragged into another arms race.” [When then asked “So, will there be some sort of unilateral restraint?”] Lavrov said: “Why would there be? We have our own policy, and we know how to ensure our country’s defense capability, even if the global strategic landscape remains unchanged. Despite the apparent normalization of relations with the Americans, they continue to label us an adversary in their official doctrinal documents and in public statements, even call us an enemy. That hasn’t stopped. You can’t just cherry-pick one element from the New START Treaty.” (Kommersant via RF MFA, 04.16.25)
  • A recently signed mutual defense pact with Russia will ensure Belarus’ “absolute security,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said, invoking the country’s alliance with nuclear-armed Russia as a deterrent against foreign aggression. “Absolute security, no one will go to war with a nuclear country,” Lukashenko said when asked about the treaty’s benefits for Belarus. He added: “No matter how much somebody might want to wipe North Korea off the face of the earth, it won’t happen; it’s a nuclear state. It’s the same with Belarus.” (BNE/MT, 04.14.25)
  • Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said his country should seek the protection of France’s nuclear deterrent against a potential Russian threat as he continued to call for access to US atomic weapons. (Bloomberg, 04.18.25)

Counterterrorism:

  • No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

  • Trump ponders the withdrawal of U.S. troops based in Syria. "We continue to approach Syria with a lot of caution" until Sharaa proves he has rid his government of foreign Islamist militants and vestiges of al-Qaeda, and demonstrates he can unite Syria's disparate minorities, a senior administration official said. (WP, 04.17.25)
  • Russia research from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Center shows that plurality of Russians (42%) support the recent withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Syria, while a third (32%) of Russians oppose the withdrawal and 27 percent are unsure. (Chicago Council, 04.17.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

  • NATO acquired Palantir’s AI-powered Maven Smart System to enhance military operations using generative AI and machine learning. (FT, 04.14.25)
  • In June Warsaw will boost the number of its personnel stationed in the Latvia from 190 to 300 soldiers, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said. (Bloomberg, 04.17.25)
  • Russia is automating the spread of false information to fool artificial intelligence chatbots on key topics, offering a playbook to other bad actors on how to game AI to push content meant to inflame, influence and obfuscate instead of inform. Earlier this year, when researchers asked 10 leading chatbots about topics targeted by false Russian messaging, such as the claim that the United States was making bioweapons in Ukraine, a third of the responses repeated those lies. (WP, 04.18.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia’s oil earnings sank to their lowest since mid-2023, with exports sliding for a third week and prices plunging amid a US-China trade war. Crude flows from all Russian ports in the four weeks to April 13 fell to 3.13 million barrels a day, their lowest since February and about 320,000 barrels a day below their recent peak. Using the same measure, the gross value of crude shipments dropped by about $80 million, or 6%, to $1.29 billion a week. That’s the lowest since the period ending July 16, 2023. (Bloomberg, 04.15.25)
    • If oil prices hold near current levels, Russia could lose about a trillion rubles this year, the equivalent to 2.5 per cent of its expected budget revenues, according to chief economist at Moscow-based T-Investments Sofya Donets. That would mean GDP growth falling by 0.5 percentage points, she said. (FT, 04.12.25)
  • Russia’s new long-term energy strategy sees crude-oil production and exports barely changing over the next 25 years. Its target scenario sees output of 540 million tons at the end of this decade and also by midcentury, a document published Monday showed. (Bloomberg, 04.14.25)
  • The European Union plans to outline steps to phase out Russian fossil fuels in early May, seeking to reconcile its political objective of reducing import dependence on Moscow with the need to lower energy costs for industry. (Bloomberg, 04.14.25)
  • Estonian authorities said Saturday that they will not allow an oil tanker believed to belong to Russia's "shadow fleet" to pursue its journey until it has resolved various legal and safety issues. (MT/AFP, 04.13.25)
  • The IEA revised the economic growth assumptions underpinning its oil demand estimates, cutting global GDP estimates to around 2.4% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, from 3.1% for both years previously. (WSJ, 04.16.25)

Climate change:

  • Moscow experienced an unprecedented high temperature on April 16, 2025, setting a new record for the warmest day in the city's recorded history for this date. By 2:00 PM local time, temperatures soared to 21.2°C, eclipsing the previous record of 21.0°C set in 1920 (BNE, 04.16.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

  • About one-third of U.S. companies that left Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine have seen their buyback options expire, head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (Robert Agee said. (MT/AFP, 04.14.25)
  • Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, said that he believes there’s a “possibility to reshape the Russia–United States relationship through some very compelling commercial opportunities that I think give real stability to the region.” He added, “Partnerships create stability.” (Meduza, 04.15.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

  • Putin praised Elon Musk, telling university students he was a pioneer comparable to legendary Soviet rocket engineer Sergei Korolev. (MT/AFP, 04.17.25)
  • A Moscow court on Monday ordered that U.S. citizen Joseph Tater be committed to a psychiatric hospital for compulsory treatment after he was accused of attacking a police officer last year. (MT/AFP, 04.15.25)
  • Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Russian service suspended medium-wave (AM 1386 kHz) broadcasts indefinitely on April 15, citing funding cuts under Trump’s March 14 executive order targeting USAGM, its federal grant agency. (Meduza, 04.15.25)
  • Trump's D.C. U.S. attorney pick Ed Martin appeared on Russian state media over 150 times. (WP, 04.16.25)
  • A series of ice hockey games between Russian and U.S. players will likely take place in St. Petersburg and Washington D.C. sometime in the future, Russia’s Sports Minister Mikhail Degtyarev said. (MT/AFP, 04.14.25)

  • Half of Americans today label Russia as an enemy of the U.S., while 38% see Russia as a competitor and 9% see it as a partner. This represents an 11-point drop in views of Russia as an enemy since last year and a 20-point drop since March 2022, just weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Still, more Americans see Russia as an enemy now than they did before the invasion (50% vs. 41% in January 2022). (Pew, 04.17.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • According to data released by the state statistics agency Rosstat, 195,400 children were born in Russia during January and February 2025—a 3% drop compared to the same period in 2024. (MT/AFP, 04.14.25)
  • Russia’s ruble has surged to become the best performing global currency, posting this year’s strongest gains against the dollar to outpace even the traditional safe haven of gold. The ruble has strengthened 38% versus the dollar on the over-the-counter market since the beginning of this year, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. (Bloomberg, 04.15.24)
    • Russian ruble equaled 0.01216 U.S. dollars on April 14, 2025, appreciating by 3% since the launch of invasion on February 24, 2022, according to RM’s calculations.
  • Almost two-thirds of Russian households report income growth compared to 2022, according to the results of a large-scale consumer finance survey conducted by the Central Bank. The estimated average per capita income stands at 33,800 rubles per month, while the median income is 27,900 rubles (a little over $300). However, a quarter of households saw their incomes decline, and for 20%, the drop exceeded 10%. This is the group of 'losers' in the economic restructuring brought on by the war and sanctions. (Re:Russia, 04.09.25.)
  • Russia's consumer prices rose by 0.65% month-on-month and 10.3% year-on-year in March, according to the latest data from state statistics agency Rosstat. (MT/AFP, 04.15.25)
  • From April 2024 to April 2025, wholesale potato prices in Russia rose by over 280%. Prices also increased for onions, beets, and cabbage, except carrots. (iStories, 04.17.25)
  • Russia could face a significant housing shortage by 2027, as a sharp slowdown in new residential construction threatens to leave the country with a shortfall of up to 30 million square meters of housing, according to a report by DOM.RF, the government’s housing and development financing agency. (MT/AFP, 04.14.25)
  • A Moscow court awarded Tatiana Kim, Russia’s wealthiest woman, her ex-husband Vladislav Bakalchuk’s remaining stake in the country’s largest online retailer Wildberries, the company’s press service told state media Thursday. (MT/AFP, 04.18.25)
  • Four Russian journalists have been convicted of extremism in a closed-door trial and jailed for working with an anti-corruption group founded in 2011 by the opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny, a ruling that drew widespread condemnation from rights groups. The journalists—Antonina Favorskaya, Konstantin Gabov, Sergei Karelin and Artyom Kriger—were charged for associating with the Anti-Corruption Fund, which Mr. Navalny founded and the Kremlin outlawed, labeling it an extremist group. (NYT, 04.16.25)
  • Russian courts convicted a record number of citizens for treason in 2024, as the Kremlin intensified its crackdown on perceived internal threats amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened tensions with the West. According to the independent investigative outlet iStories, 145 Russian citizens were convicted of treason last year. That figure is nearly four times higher than the number of convictions in 2023 and the highest recorded in modern Russian history, the outlet said. (MT/AFP, 04.16.25)
  • Russia research from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Center shows that a plurality of Russians (35%) feels their government gives them a lot but that citizens could ask for more, the highest rate on record since polling began in 1989 (11%). Just 14 percent believe the government has given them everything, and that no one has the right to demand anything more, also the highest rate on record. (Chicago Council, 04.17.25)
  • Television remains the primary news source for Russians, though its dominance has declined from 90% in 2014 to 54% in 2023, according to a Levada Center survey. Over the past year, this decline stabilized, with TV viewership fluctuating around 60%. In March 2025, 61% of respondents reported relying on TV for news. The data highlights shifting media consumption patterns amid growing digital alternatives, though traditional broadcast media retains significant influence. (Levada, 04.17.25)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russia’s mass military recruitment efforts are becoming increasingly costly as the war in Ukraine drags on for a fourth year, with the state shelling out some 2 billion rubles ($22 million) per day on sign-on bonuses for new recruits alone. (MT/AFP, 04.15.25)
  • Russian recruitment for men to fight in Ukraine is soaring in many of the country's regions, with signing bonuses and other incentives reaching new records in some places. (RFE/RL, 04.12.25)
  • See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

  • Russian law enforcement authorities arrested former Kursk region governor Alexei Smirnov. Smirnov’s arrest is linked to a criminal investigation into the alleged embezzlement of government funds meant for constructing defense fortifications along the border with Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.16.25)
  • A Moscow military court on Thursday sentenced former deputy chief of Russia’s General Staff Vadim Shamarin to seven years in a maximum-security prison on corruption charges. Lieutenant-General Shamarin, who also headed the General Staff’s communications directorate, was arrested in May 2024 on charges of accepting 36 million rubles ($437,600) in bribes from a phone manufacturing plant in exchange for state contracts and “general patronage.” (MT/AFP, 04.17.25)
  • A Russian military court recently decided to keep former 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Commander Major General Ivan Popov in custody after reports that Popov would command a penal assault detachment in Ukraine. (ISW,04.147.25)
  • A military court in Russia’s Far East has handed down the country’s first prison sentence for voluntary surrender to the Ukrainian army, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 04.15.25)
  • Russian courts received a record 17,400 civil cases in 2024 to declare individuals dead or missing—triple 2023’s figure and the highest in 15 years. Courts approved 10,000 of 11,000 reviewed petitions, often filed by families of soldiers missing in Ukraine seeking death benefits or closure. (iStories, 04.17.25)
  • Convictions by Russian military courts doubled in 2024 with 13,700 individuals found guilty, with damages from military crimes surging tenfold and damage caused increasing 10 times to total 25 billion rubles. Some 6,800 servicemen were sentenced to time in prison last year. (iStories, 04.15.25)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin met with several Russian citizens who had been freed from captivity by Hamas. The president welcomed Alexander Trufanov—released by Hamas on February 15, 2025—along with his mother Elena Trufanova and fiancée Sapir Cohen, who were freed in late 2023. Also present at the meeting were Russia’s chief rabbi, Berel Lazar, and the president of the Federation of Jewish Communities of Russia, Alexander Boroda. During the meeting, Putin thanked Hamas for releasing the hostages. (Meduza, 04.16.25)
  • Russia’s Supreme Court lifted a ban on the Taliban, the latest step in growing relations between Moscow and the Islamist group in Afghanistan. The Taliban was recognized as a terrorist organization and outlawed in Russia in 2003. (Bloomberg, 04.17.25)
  • Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico rebuked the European Union’s top diplomat for urging leaders to drop their plans to visit Moscow for celebrations marking the Soviet Union’s 80th anniversary of victory in World War II. Fico, speaking in Croatian capital of Zagreb on Wednesday, said he was the prime minister of a sovereign country and EU’s Kaja Kallas “can’t tell me what I can and can’t do.” (Bloomberg, 04.16.25)
  • Serbian authorities have issued passports to dozens of Russians with Kremlin ties since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the investigative news outlet iStories reported Wednesday, citing government data. A total of 204 Russians were naturalized as Serbian citizens between early 2022 and April 2025, including many with links to Russia’s defense industry and intelligence services, the outlet said. (MT/AFP, 04.16.25)
  • Serbia on Wednesday said protesters' claims that they were targeted by a "sound cannon" were refuted by an investigation carried out by Russian intelligence officers. (MT/AFP, 04.17.25)
  • Japan’s government sent Russia a formal letter of protest over the closure of sea navigation around the Kuril Islands, Russian state media reported Thursday. (MT/AFP, 04.17.25)
  • Indonesia said it won’t allow Russian planes to be stationed on its territory, after earlier reports that Moscow had requested permission to access a provincial base in the archipelago stoked concern in neighboring Australia. Indonesia’s Defense Ministry said no such request had been made by Russia or been considered. (Bloomberg, 04.15.25)
  • Russia withdrew from the agreement with Norway, Finland and Sweden on the Barents Sea The Cabinet of Ministers denounced the agreement with Norway, Sweden and Finland on cooperation in the Barents region. In 2023, Russia withdrew from the Barents Council, stating that its activities were paralyzed "due to the fault of Western participants. (RBC, 04.18.25)

Ukraine:

  • U.S. and Ukrainian officials met on April 11 on a U.S. proposal to gain access to Ukraine's mineral wealth, a source with knowledge of the matter said, adding that prospects for a breakthrough were scant given the meeting's "antagonistic" atmosphere. The source said that one of the "Easter eggs" found in the document was a U.S. demand that the U.S. government's International Development Finance Corporation take control of a natural gas pipeline from Russian energy giant Gazprom across Ukraine to Europe. It was subsequently reported that the U.S. tempered its demands for the payback of aid by Ukraine Trump’s administration has reportedly reduced its estimate for the assistance the US provided to Kyiv since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion from $300 billion to about $100 billion. (Bloomberg, 04.16.25, Reuters, 04.11.25)
  • On April 17 Kyiv and Washington signed a memorandum of intent on reaching a deal on minerals virtually. Ukrainian officials familiar with the matter said the sides were expected only to report progress by April 26, after Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal’s visit to Washington, with the goal of concluding discussions and signing the deal itself shortly thereafter. Once finalised, the agreement will need approval from Ukraine’s parliament. (FT, 04.17.25)10
  • The National Bank of Ukraine held the benchmark at 15.5% on Thursday, after raising it in the previous three meetings. (Bloomberg, 04.17.25)
  • A municipal deputy from Russia’s far-eastern Zabaykalsky Krai has been performing his official duties remotely for four years while living in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. (Meduza, 04.18.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Moldova's lawmakers voted to set the next parliamentary elections for September 28 in a test for the country's fragile democracy caught between pro-European and pro-Russian forces. (RFE/RL, 04.18.25)
  • Georgia’s ruling and opposition parties have ruled out restoring diplomatic relations with Russia unless Moscow returns the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the business newspaper Kommersant reported. (MT/AFP, 04.14.25)

  • India sold 43% of the arms Armenia imported between 2022 and 2024, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, up from almost nothing between 2016 and 2018. (Reuters, 04.16.25)

Quotable and notable:

  • "I have found Putin to be a “combustible combination of grievance and ambition and insecurity.” I also watched as his risk appetite and his sense of destiny deepened. Nowhere was that sense of destiny more brutal than with regard to Ukraine… Putin does not believe that Russia can be a great power in his eyes or that he can be a great Russian leader without controlling Ukraine,” William Burns said. (William Burns, The 2025 Hagel Lecture, 04.16.25)
  • “If given the choice between re-entering Russia and drinking bleach, I’m sure that that glass of bleach is looking mighty good," Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace consultant told NYT in reference to possibility of Boeing’s return to Russia. (NYT, 04.12.25)
  • When Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Agency, was asked in a 2023 interview with Ukrainska Pravda which Russian was most dangerous, he first declined to answer, then named FSB’s Sergei Beseda. "He has done a lot of evil for Ukraine," he said. (WSJ, 04.12.25)

Footnotes

  1. The U.S. delegation included Rubio, Witkoff and Kellogg.
  2. In comments made on April 14, Trump blamed the war on the following individuals in the following order: Putin, Biden, Zelensky. However, speaking on the subject again on April 17, Trump said he doesn't hold Volodymyr Zelensky "responsible" for Russia's invasion of his country.
  3. As a candidate in 2024, Trump claimed that he would have the Russia-Ukraine war solved within 24 hours—and even before he even took office. Then his special envoy for Ukraine said after Trump’s taking of office that he was given a deadline to end the war in 100 days of his presidency, which would be April 30, 2025. Also, April 20th, which is Easter for Christians, has been floated by the U.S. side as the deadline for a full ceasefire. Then on March 30 Trump said that there is a "psychological deadline" for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, without naming a specific date. And on April 4 Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “The United States will know in a matter of weeks if Russia is serious about peace.”
  4. Estimates cited in Russia-Ukraine War Report Card indicate that, in contrast to Trump’s claim, there were between 600,000 and 1,000,000 Russian servicemen killed and wounded in the war, while Ukraine lost anywhere between 400,000 and 700,000 killed and wounded. In addition, at least 12,654 Ukrainian civilians and 652 Russian civilians were killed.
  5. It was reported on April 18 that a Russian missile strike has killed one person in the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, with a separate drone attack killing another person in the nearby city of Sumy.
  6. As a candidate in 2024, Trump claimed that he would have the Russia-Ukraine war solved within 24 hours—and even before he even took office. Then his special envoy for Ukraine said after Trump’s taking of office that he was given a deadline to end the war in 100 days of his presidency, which would be April 30, 2025. Also, April 20th, which is Easter for Christians, has been floated by the U.S. side as the deadline for a full ceasefire. Then on March 30 Trump said that there is a "psychological deadline" for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, without naming a specific date. And on April 4 Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio said The United States will know in a matter of weeks if Russia is serious about peace.”
  7. Estimates cited in Russia-Ukraine War Report Card indicate that, in contrast to Trump’s claim, there were between 600,000 and 1,000,000 Russian servicemen killed and wounded in the war, while Ukraine lost anywhere between 400,000 and 700,000 killed and wounded. In addition, at least 12,654 Ukrainian civilians and 652 Russian civilians were killed.
  8. According to WP, Marco said he United States will abandon efforts to end the war in Ukraine if it proves impossible to broker meaningful progress in the next several days.
  9. For an in-depth review of Russia-China military ties see this recent CSIS product.
  10. The full text of the 04.17.25 draft of the memorandum of intent can be found here.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Photo credit: Ludovic Marin, Pool Photo via AP

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