Russia in Review, April 10-17, 2020

This Week’s Highlights

  • Russia conducted a test of the Nudol ASAT system on April 15. The missile was launched from the Plesetsk test site, according to the blog Russian strategic nuclear forces. U.S. Space Command issued a statement saying it "is aware and tracking Russia's direct-ascent anti-satellite missile test April 15.”
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia is ready to discuss hypersonic missiles and other arms control issues with the U.S. as part of wider discussions about strategic stability, Al Jazeera reports, while one of Lavrov’s deputies proposed talks on cooperation in space, according to the Financial Times.
  • The U.S. could send Russia ventilators to help the country battle its record-setting rise in coronavirus cases, U.S. President Donald Trump said April 15, The Moscow Times reports. "President Putin believes this pandemic is the time to help each other," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters after Trump’s offer. "This is very positive and the U.S. president told Putin of this readiness during the recent phone call," Peskov said, according to AFP. At the same time, Russian officials denounced Trump’s decision to cut Washington’s funding to the World Health Organization, The Moscow Times reports.
  • Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on April 16 rejected as counterproductive attempts to blame Beijing for delaying informing the world about the coronavirus, the Kremlin said, according to AFP, and a Chinese team of 10 medical experts left for Russia on April 11 to help the country in COVID-19 prevention, China Daily reports. Meanwhile, growing number of Chinese nationals have returned from Russia with the virus, threatening a second wave, AFP reports.
  • Sales of vodka in Russia shot up 65 percent in the last week of March, compared with a month earlier, according to the market research firm GfK. Part of the problem is a widespread, false belief across the former Soviet Union that drinking vodka can treat or prevent diseases, the New York Times reports.
  • Prosecutors in Germany announced on April 15 that they detained five suspected members of the Islamic State earlier that day for allegedly planning to stage an attack on U.S. military facilities. Prosecutors did not disclose which of the military facilities that the U.S. maintains in Germany, which includes a nuclear weapons depot, the five Tajik nationals planned to attack.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • New fires have broken out near Chernobyl after firefighters had earlier said they had extinguished the wildfires. On April 15, Ukraine’s state Scientific Center for Nuclear and Radiation Safety published data of the movement of “potentially contaminated air masses” toward Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, but said they were not hazardous. (RFE/RL, 04.17.20, Bellona, 04.14.20, Polygraph.info, 04.15.20)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

  • No significant developments.

New Cold War/saber rattling:

  • Russia conducted a test of the Nudol ASAT system on April 15. The missile was launched from the Plesetsk test site. U.S. Space Command issued a statement saying that it "is aware and tracking Russia's direct-ascent anti-satellite missile test April 15.” The missile traveled 3,000 kilometers and splashed down in the Laptev Sea. (Russianforces.org, 04.15.20, Popular Mechanics, 04.16.20)
  • The new U.S. Space Force is building an arsenal of as many as 48 ground-based weapons over the next seven years designed to temporarily jam Russian or Chinese communications satellite signals in the opening hours of a conflict. (Bloomberg, 04.17.20)
  • The Russian intelligence services “likely are watching the U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” says an April 6 intelligence bulletin produced by the Department of Homeland Security Counterintelligence Mission Center. “Intelligence collection on medical supply chain vulnerabilities could inform future operations aimed at weakening key logistical elements in preparation for a wartime attack, or opportunistically during an emergency,” the document says. (Yahoo, 04.10.20)
  • Russia's Black Sea Fleet has taken over the escort of the USS Porter, a U.S. destroyer that entered the Black Sea at 6:30 p.m. on April 13, the Russian National Defense Control Center said. (Interfax, 04.14.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

  • No significant developments.

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Arms control:

  • With the exception of New START and the suspended Plutonium Disposition Management Agreement (PDMA), the U.S. has major issues with ways Russia implements arms control treaties and initiatives that both the U.S. and Russia are/have been parties to, according to the “Executive Summary of Findings on Adherence to and Compliance With Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments,” April 2020. In particular, the Trump administration continues to fault Russia for violating the INF Treaty with SSC-8 Screwdriver missiles. It also believes Russia no longer feels bound by its pledge to eliminate all nuclear warheads for ground forces in spite of the so-called bilateral Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs). The United States assesses that Russia has conducted nuclear weapons-related experiments that have created nuclear yield and is failing comply with BWC and CWC, with the latter violated by using a military-grade nerve agent against its former spy in the U.K. in 2018. The United States has also assessed that Russia was in violation of the Treaty on Open Skies and the Vienna Document on Confidence- and Security-Building Measures. (Russia Matters, 04.17.20)
  • U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed arms control and other issues April 17. Russia is ready to discuss hypersonic missiles and other arms control issues with the U.S. as part of wider discussions about strategic stability, Lavrov said earlier. The State Department said the two diplomats discussed next steps in the bilateral strategic security dialogue. Pompeo emphasized that any future arms control talks must be based on U.S. President Donald Trump’s vision for a trilateral arms control agreement that includes China along with the U.S. and Russia, the State Department said. Earlier, Russia’s deputy foreign minister proposed talks with the U.S. over cooperation in space. (Financial Times, 04.13.20, AP, 04.17.20, Al Jazeera, 04.14.20)
  • The U.S. receives far fewer flights over its territory than it flies over others’ under the Open Skies treaty, according to OpenSkies.flights. Approximately 94 percent of reconnaissance flights under the Open Skies treaty were flown over European states, including Russia. (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 04.15.20)
  • China might be secretly conducting nuclear tests with very low explosive power despite Beijing's assertions that it is strictly adhering to Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, according to a new arms-control report to be made public by the U.S. State Department. (Wall Street Journal, 04.16.20)

Counter-terrorism:

  • Prosecutors in Germany announced on April 15 that they detained five suspected members of the Islamic State earlier that day for allegedly planning to stage an attack on U.S. military facilities. Prosecutors did not disclose which of the military facilities that the U.S. maintains in Germany, which includes a nuclear weapons depot, the five Tajik nationals planned to attack. (Russia Matters, 04.15.20)

Conflict in Syria:

  • Russia's efforts to form military units in Syria's al-Hasakah province have been foiled by the U.S., according to local sources as Moscow and Washington's fight over control east of the Euphrates continues. Russia was trying to recruit insurgents from local militias in the towns of Amuda and Tal Tamer. The Americans met local people several times asking them not to join the Russians. (Daily Sabah, 04.09.20)
  • Russia sent another large batch of tanks and armored personnel carriers to Syria. (Almasdarnews, 04.11.20)

Cyber security:

  • No significant developments.

Elections interference:

  • The FBI's Crossfire Hurricane team investigating the Trump 2016 campaign received multiple indications that former British spy Christopher Steele was part of an elaborate "Russian disinformation campaign," according to several newly declassified footnotes from Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz's report on FBI misconduct. (Fox News, 04.12.20)
  • A federal judge on April 16 rejected Roger Stone's demand for a new trial, ruling that the jury forewoman in Stone's trial was not substantially biased against him. A jury convicted Stone in November of lying during testimony to the House Intelligence Committee in September 2017 to conceal his central role in the Trump campaign's efforts to learn about Democratic computer files hacked by Russia. (The Washington Post, 04.16.20)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing countries have finalized an agreement on an unprecedented oil-production cut in the hope of bolstering global prices that have collapsed due to the coronavirus pandemic and a price war. OPEC+ said late on April 12 that it had agreed to reduce output by 9.7 million barrels per day for May and June. The agreement also calls for OPEC+ members to keep oil production reduced from the current level by 6 million barrels per day through April 2022. (RFE/RL, 04.13.20)
    • Russia agreed to cut more than 2.5 million barrels a day of crude from the 11 million of combined crude and condensate Russia pumps each day, more than four times the reduction that he turned down in early March and more than what Saudi Arabia is obliged to cut from its output level last month. (Bloomberg, 04.13.20)
    • Declaring that the agreement "will save hundreds of thousands of energy jobs in the United States," U.S. President Donald Trump also tweeted congratulations and thanks to Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia.The Kremlin announced early on April 13 that Putin held a joint call with Trump and Saudi King Salman in which all three had expressed support for the deal. (RFE/RL, 04.13.20)
    • "This deal is really an example of what's possible if the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia work together," Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian government adviser who heads its sovereign wealth fund, said. Dmitriev said that to reach the April 12 agreement, Putin spoke five times with Trump over the preceding two weeks, more than he had the entire previous year. (The Washington Post, 04.15.20)
    • Russia and Saudi Arabia may be ready to enact deeper oil production cuts to stabilize prices, the energy ministers of the two countries said in a joint statement. The two will “continue to closely monitor the oil market and are prepared to take further measures jointly with OPEC+ and other producers if these are deemed necessary,” the statement said as quoted by Bloomberg. (Oil Price, 04.17.20)
    • “Let’s be honest, the oil crisis started before COVID, because of geopolitical issues, Russia, Asia, Saudi Arabia, faced with the American production costs. So don’t blame the petrol crisis on COVID,” French President Emmanuel Macron told FT. (Financial Times, 04.17.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

  • The U.S. could send Russia ventilators to help the country battle its record-setting rise in coronavirus cases, Trump said April 15. "President Putin believes this pandemic is the time to help each other," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, after Trump’s offer. "This is very positive and the U.S. president told Putin of this readiness during the recent phone call," Peskov said. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.20, AFP, 04.16.20)
  • Putin and Trump did not discuss the removal of sanctions on major projects involving Russian companies in their recent telephone call last week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. (TASS, 04.13.20)
  • Lavrov and Pompeo agreed on a call on April 17 to continue coordinating efforts to overcome the crisis in oil markets and the challenges posed by the new coronavirus, a Russian Foreign Ministry statement said. (Reuters, 04.17.20)
  • Russian officials denounced Trump’s decision to cut Washington’s funding to the World Health Organization. (The Moscow Times, 04.15.20)
  • A Soyuz MS-15 capsule carrying the ISS crew chief, Russian cosmonaut Oleg Skripochka, and NASA flight engineers Jessica Meir and Andrew Morgan landed safely on April 17 in Kazakhstan. (RFE/RL, 04.17.20)
  • Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan has asked the Moscow court trying him on espionage charges to allow a doctor from the American Embassy to examine him at his detention facility, saying his groin hernia had worsened, according to his lawyer. (RFE/RL, 04.13.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • Russia confirmed 4,070 new coronavirus infections on April 17, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 32,008 and marking the latest one-day record in new cases. Two hundred and seventy-three people have been killed by the virus. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
  • Putin warned on April 13 that the coronavirus outbreak in the country is getting worse and more severe, a few weeks after he assured citizens the pandemic was “under control.” Putin then announced on April 15 a new package of measures to support Russia’s businesses hit by the economic fallout of the coronavirus, including state payments of 12,130 rubles ($160) per month to small and medium-sized businesses for every employee in April and May, 200 billion rubles ($2.6 billion) of support for regional budgets from the federal government and  government support worth at least 23 billion rubles ($307 million) for airlines. (Financial Times, 04.13.20, The Moscow Times, 04.15.20)
  • Moscow, a city of 12.7 million people, is at the epicenter of Russia’s coronavirus outbreak, having officially recorded 18,105 cases as of April 17, equivalent to just over 0.1 percent of its population. Early results from the first commercial Russian tests suggest that a much higher proportion of people in Moscow are infected, and that the disease has spread among residents without symptoms. Employees from three Moscow-based private laboratories told Reuters that positive results were coming back in between 1 percent and 5 percent of cases—a wide range but a significantly greater share than the official tally.  (Reuters, 04.17.20)
  • The Russian government has authorized hospitals to treat coronavirus patients with the untested malaria drug hydroxychloroquine. The decree instructs Russia’s national medical cardiology research center to distribute 68,600 packs of hydroxychloroquine donated by a Shanghai pharmaceutical company to hospitals across Russia for free. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.20)
  • Aeroflot has suspended ticket sales for all international flights departing before August, as Russia’s coronavirus cases continue to rise at one of the fastest rates in the world. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.20)
  • Sales of vodka in Russia shot up 65 percent in the last week of March, compared with a month earlier, according to the market research firm GfK. Part of the problem is a widespread, false belief across the former Soviet Union that drinking vodka can treat or prevent diseases. (New York Times, 04.14.20)
  • It is too early to tell if former Soviet anti-plague centers have made any difference in the coronavirus outbreak. At most, the legacy Soviet system helped delay the spread, and it is just one data point in assessing why the coronavirus moved more slowly in Russia, Ukraine and other former Soviet countries than in Western Europe and the U.S. (New York Times, 04.15.20)
  • Some Russian cities have ordered public areas to be sprayed with disinfectant in an effort to curb the coronavirus. In the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, engineers repurposed jet engines to create a powerful antiviral blast. (RFE/RL, 04.14.20)
  • The Russian branch of the French sports equipment company Decathlon told AFP it had "blocked" sales of 6,000 masks from dozens of shops around the country, distributing them free of charge to hospitals on request instead. (AFP, 04.16.20)
  • Russia’s foreign exchange and gold reserves increased by 0.1 percent from April 3 to April 10 to $564.9 billion, the central bank said in a statement on April 16. (bne IntelliNews, 04.17.20)
  • Russia received almost zero foreign direct investment in the first quarter of 2020, dropping from $10.3 billion in the same period a year earlier to $200 million, the Central Bank of Russia reported on April 13. (bne IntelliNews, 04.14.20)
  • Russian lawmakers from both houses of parliament have passed legislation April 17 allowing dual Russian citizenship for foreigners, sending it to Putin’s desk less than two weeks after introducing it. The bill’s authors expect up to 10 million people, primarily from Russian-speaking populations in the former Soviet republics, to obtain Russian passports as the country tries to fix its demographic crisis. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.20)
  • Russians have come to think that Putin represents the interests of oligarchs above everyone else, according to the latest Levada Center poll. Thirty-eight percent of respondents in the March 2020 national survey said Putin is a champion of the oligarchs, a perception that has been rising since 2001. This is the first time oligarchs have overtaken “siloviki"—members of Russia’s so-called power agencies—as the top group whose interests Putin represents, which 37 percent of respondents chose in the 2020 poll. (Russia Matters, 04.15.20)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Putin on April 16 postponed a landmark military parade to mark the 75th anniversary of Soviet victory in World War II, as Russia struggles to contain the rapid spread of the coronavirus. He said the May 9 event would be held later in 2020. (AFP, 04.16.20)
  • Nearly 50 cadets and instructors involved in rehearsals for Russia’s now-postponed Victory Day parade have been infected with the coronavirus, the Baza Telegram channel reported April 17. Tests of 11,000 Defense Ministry personnel have been conducted, the ministry said.  (The Moscow Times, 04.17.20, TASS, 04.14.20)
  • The Project 955A (Borei-A) lead nuclear-powered submarine Knyaz Vladimir will be delivered to the Russian navy by late June and the vessel will undergo at least one sea trial before that date, a source in the Russian defense industry told TASS. All Borei-class submarines can carry 16 Bulava ballistic missiles. (TASS, 04.12.20)
  • The Northern Fleet will receive S-350 Vityaz air defense launchers. Experts said it takes several hours to deploy S-350 in any part of the Arctic. They will reliably defend the Northern Sea Route and the important northern strategic direction, the Izvestia daily writes. (TASS, 04.15.20, Interfax, 04.14.20)
  • The first T-90 tanks to be upgraded to the level of T-90M Proryv will be the vehicles of the 7th Russian military base in Abkhazia. (TASS, 04.17.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Authorities in Siberia have arrested a teenager on suspicion of plotting a deadly attack in school amid a rise in school-shooting cases across Russia. (RFE/RL, 04.17.20)
  • Arsonists have attacked a synagogue in Russia's northwestern city of Arkhangelsk, the latest attack on the property since 2015. (RFE/RL, 04.14.20)
  • A court in the city of Istra near the Russian capital said on April 16 that it had sent Col. Albert Kudryashov, deputy chief of the National Guard's intelligence center, to pretrial detention for at least two months while an investigation into alleged extortion continues. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Chief of Russia’s General Staff Army Gen. Valery Gerasimov discussed the fight against the coronavirus during a telephone talk with his Italian counterpart, Gen. Enzo Vecciarelli. Russian military doctors and their Italian colleagues have provided treatment to 31 coronavirus patients in a field hospital in Bergamo, and eight of them have been cured, the Russian Defense Ministry said. (TASS, 04.15.20, TASS, 04.13.20)
  • "I believe in cooperation between all powers, I deeply believe in the cooperation with China, in strategic dialogues with Russia, but I don’t want to be hypocritical in that dialogue and have never been,” French President Emmanuel Macron told FT. (Financial Times, 04.17.20)
  • Russian nationals in Italy are offering Italians money to film themselves thanking Russia and Putin for recent coronavirus aid, Italy’s La Repubblica newspaper reported. (The Moscow Times, 04.14.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

  • Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on April 16 rejected as counterproductive attempts to blame Beijing for delaying informing the world about the coronavirus, the Kremlin said. (AFP, 04.16.20)
  • A growing number of Chinese nationals have returned from Russia with the virus, threatening a second wave. The estimated 250 coronavirus cases brought from Moscow and Vladivostok could point to the severity of Russia’s outbreak. On the border between Russia and China, the town of Suifenhe was expected to open a field hospital April 11 in order to handle new coronavirus cases. Capacity for the hospital will be 600 beds. China’s Heilongjiang province began 24/7 patrols of its border. It is believed that after Russia banned international flights in April, Chinese nationals flew from Moscow to Vladivostok and then re-entered their home country via automobile. (AFP, 04.13.20, Newsweek, 04.10.20)
  • A Chinese team of 10 medical experts left for Russia on April 11 to help the country in COVID-19 prevention and control work, according to China National Radio. The team will provide guidance and training for medics in Russia under the lead of China's embassy in the country. They will also hold video conferences with Chinese citizens residing in Russia. (China Daily, 04.11.20)

Ukraine:

  • As the coronavirus pandemic has closed borders across the continent over the past couple of weeks, more than 100,000 Ukrainians have rushed back to their country via the checkpoints on Poland’s eastern border, in a striking reversal of an exodus to the west that had been one of Europe’s biggest recent migrations. Last year, Poland issued 1.5 million special short-term work registrations to citizens from its eastern neighbor. (Financial Times, 04.12.20)
  • A top security official in Ukraine who was arrested for alleged collaboration with Russia's FSB is suspected in plotting the assassination of Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. Maj. Gen. Valeriy Shaytanov of the Ukraine’s SBU is suspected of planning to murder Avakov and Adam Osmayev, the leader of Chechen volunteers. Earlier in the day, the SBU said it detained an unidentified former officer also suspected of collaborating with the FSB along with Shaytanov. (RFE/RL, 04.17.20)
  • Russia's FSB claims to have uncovered a Ukrainian intelligence "sabotage and terrorism" group in annexed Crimea that included a female Russian military officer who allegedly divulged "state secrets." The FSB said on April 15 that the Russian servicewoman had handed state secrets to Ukraine's military intelligence in 2017-18, and that a Ukrainian national also allegedly spied on orders from Kyiv. (RFE/RL, 04.15.20)
  • Ukraine and Russian-backed rebels in the country’s east carried out their first prisoner exchange of the year on April 16. The self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine handed over nine pro-government prisoners to Kyiv In exchange, Donetsk said Kyiv handed over 11 separatists, one of whom refused to return to the pro-Russian statelet. The neighboring Luhansk People’s Republic said it plans to swap 11 pro-Ukrainian government prisoners in exchange for seven separatists. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.20)
  • A court in Kyiv has placed former lawmaker Tetyana Chornovol under house arrest on suspicion of murder during deadly anti-government protests known as the Euromaidan in February 2014. An employee of the office of the pro-Russia Party of Regions died after the party's office in downtown Kyiv was set on fire. Investigators say Chornovol led a group of people who set the building on fire. (RFE/RL, 04.17.20)
  • U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper spoke by phone on April 8 with Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Taran to strengthen the strategic partnership between the U.S. and Ukraine and exchange perspectives on the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. (Unian, 04.09.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Damaging slowdowns and contractions triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will hit Central Asian economic growth this year. Kazakhstan’s GDP is set to contract by 0.8 percent, according to the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Economic Update for Spring 2020. Uzbekistan’s growth is projected to reduce sharply to around 1.6 percent in 2020. Kyrgyzstan is projected to see only 0.4 percent of GDP growth in 2020. The World Bank predicts GDP growth in Tajikistan falling to 1.7 percent or lower in 2020. The World Bank did not assess economic prospects for Turkmenistan. (bne IntelliNews, 04.11.20)
  • Fitch Ratings on April 10 affirmed Uzbekistan's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at BB- with a stable outlook. (bne IntelliNews, 04.13.20)
  • Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry has officially protested an article published on a Chinese website that questioned Kazakhstan’s territorial integrity. (RFE/RL, 04.14.20)
  • Uzbekistan's central bank said on April 15 that as of April 16, $1 will cost 10,121 soms, which is some 4.4 percent weaker, or 428 soms higher, than the rate on April 14. (RFE/RL, 04.15.20)
  • Tajik President Emomali Rahmon's eldest son Rustam has become the chairman of the parliament's upper chamber, known as the Majlisi Milli. (RFE/RL, 04.17.20)
  • The European Parliament will call for the creation of a "common economic space" between the EU and the six former Soviet republics of its Eastern Partnership program as part of a process of "gradual integration" into the bloc, according to a draft report seen by RFE/RL. (RFE/RL, 04.15.20)
  • Arayik (Ara) Harutyunian, former prime minister of the unrecognized region of Nagorno-Karabakh, has won a runoff presidential election with 88 percent of the vote, an expected result after his rival asked his supporters not to vote in the second round. (RFE/RL, 04.15.20)
  • A 13-year-old Estonian schoolboy has been revealed as the leader of the international neo-Nazi organisation Feuerkrieg Division (FKD). (bne IntelliNews, 04.13.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in March: “You should probably also take in 40 to 50 grams of the equivalent of pure alcohol to kill this virus. Just not at work.” (New York Times, 04.14.20)