This Week’s Highlights

• At least 39 people were killed and 87 wounded in a missile strike April 8 on a railway station in Kramatorsk that was packed with women, children and elderly trying to flee fighting, Ukrainian authorities said, Reuters and the AP report.
• The mayor of Bucha said on April 8 that the authorities in the town had so far collected the bodies of about 320 people killed during weeks of occupation by Russia’s army, the Financial Times reports. Ukraine’s prosecutor-general said 410 bodies of civilians had been recovered from the Kyiv region, according to the Financial Times.
• Russian forces have completed their withdrawal from the Kyiv area, and they still have 80 of about 130 battalion tactical groups originally deployed to Ukraine, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, the Financial Times reports. On April 7, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian forces "are preparing to resume an active offensive" in eastern Ukraine, according to The Moscow Times, with the British Defense Ministry saying on April 8 that Russian forces had already begun to advance from the eastern Ukrainian city of Izyum, which is under Russian control, RFE/RL reports.
• The U.S. Congress has voted to remove favorable trade status for goods from Russia, RFE/RL reports, while the White House has hit Russia’s Sberbank and Alfa Bank with full blocking sanctions. The U.S. and U.K. have also decided to sanction the daughters of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as has UK, according to RFE/RL and the Financial Times. FT reports that the U.K. has also announced asset freezes against Sberbank, and the sanctioning of 8 individuals linked to key Russian industries. In a separate move, the EU has agreed on a new package of sanctions which targets Russian coal, financial transactions, transport, imports and exports to Russia, RFE/RL and AFP report.
• Since April 4, 206 Russian diplomats and embassy staff have been told they are no longer welcome to stay by governments in Italy, France, Germany and elsewhere, in addition to more than 100 reported to have already been thrown out since the beginning of Russia’s t invasion of Ukraine, according to The Guardian.  
• Sixty-three Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives voted against a symbolic resolution reaffirming support for NATO and its principles on April 5, The Washington Post reports.
• The Pew Research Center found the number of Americans who said Russia was an enemy had surged from 41% in January to 70% in late March.
• Kazakhstan authorities say they will not help Russia to evade Western sanctions imposed on Moscow over its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, according to RFE/RL, and that it respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russian soldiers dug trenches in the highly radioactive soil of the Chernobyl exclusion zone when they controlled the defunct nuclear power plant, a Ukrainian official confirmed. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 04.07.22)
• Hungary flew in a batch of Russian-made nuclear fuel rods on April 6, allowing it to continue operating the Soviet-made Paks nuclear power plant, foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said on April 7. (Financial Times, 04.07.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said April 4 that the U.S. is responsible for the pause in talks between Tehran and world powers in Vienna aimed at reviving their 2015 nuclear deal. A Russian demand forced a pause in negotiations in early March, but Moscow later said it had written guarantees that its trade with Iran would not be affected by Ukraine-related sanctions, suggesting Moscow could allow a revival of the tattered pact to go forward. (Reuters, 04.04.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Iryna Venedyktova, Ukraine’s prosecutor-general, said 410 bodies of civilians had been recovered from the Kyiv region. (Financial Times, 04.03.22, Financial Times, 04.04.22)
• Anatoly Fedoruk, the mayor of Bucha, said on April 8 that the authorities in the town, north-west of Kyiv, had so far collected the bodies of about 320 people killed during weeks of occupation by Russia’s army. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of committing genocide and attempting to eliminate the "whole nation" of Ukraine, a day after the discovery of mass graves and apparently executed civilians in Bucha. Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, on April 3 called on the ICC and other international organizations to come to Bucha and other parts of the Kyiv region to gather evidence of what he described as Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity. (The Washington Post, 04.05.22, Financial Times, 04.03.2, AFP, 04.03.22, RFE/RL, 04.03.22, AFP, 04.03.22.)
    • The president of the EU Council, Charles Michel, said the EU was assisting Ukraine and non-governmental organizations in gathering the necessary evidence for the prosecution of crimes in international courts. (Reuters, 04.03.22)
  • Biden on April 4 said reports of indiscriminate killings of civilians in Bucha constituted a “war crime” and that the United States would bring additional sanctions against Russia. (The New York Times, 04.04.22, Reuters, 04.04.22)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 6 accused Ukrainian authorities of being behind "crude and cynical" provocations in Bucha and his spokesman Peskov told journalists that Russia "categorically rejected all allegations.” However, an analysis of satellite images by The New York Times rebuts claims by Russia that the killing of civilians in Bucha occurred after its soldiers had left the town. (The New York Times, 04.04.22, The New York Times, 04.04.22, BBC, 04.04.22, Reuters, 04.04.22, AFP, 04.06.22)
• Human Rights Watch said April 3 that it had documented summary executions and rape in the towns around Kyiv and in the northern Chernihiv and eastern Kharkiv regions. (Financial Times, 04.03.22, Financial Times, 04.04.22)
• Ukrainian officials and local residents have said the mayor of Motyzhyn, along with her husband and son, were executed by invading Russian forces. (CBS, 04.04.22)
• Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk has said that 3,376 people—mostly from Mariupol, Berdyansk and Zaporizhia region—were safely evacuated on April 4. A team from the International Committee of the Red Cross was stopped during an attempt to reach Mariupol to evacuate civilians and was being held nearby in Manhush. (Reuters, 04.04.22, Kyiv Independent, 04.04.22)
• Video circulating online this week appeared to show Ukrainian soldiers killing captured Russian troops near Kyiv. The footage verified by The New York Times may have been filmed after a Ukrainian ambush of a retreating Russian column near the village of Dmytrivka on or around March 30. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it was working with Russian law enforcement agencies to collect evidence of alleged Ukrainian war crimes.  (The New York Times, 04.06.22, The Moscow Times/AFP, 04.07.22)
• The United Nations migration agency estimates that more than 11 million people have fled their homes in Ukraine since Russia’s unprovoked war began on Feb. 24. (RFE/RL, 04.06.22)
• Germany's foreign intelligence service claims to have intercepted radio communications in which Russian soldiers discuss indiscriminate killings in Ukraine. In two separate communications, Russian soldiers described how they question soldiers as well as civilians, and proceed to shoot them, according to an intelligence official familiar. (The Washington Post, 04.07.22)
• More than 2,000 Ukrainians have made their way to the U.S. border from Mexico over the past 10 days. (The New York Times, 04.06.22).

• At least 39 people were killed and 87 wounded in a missile strike on April 8 on a railway station in Kramatorsk that was packed with women, children and elderly trying to flee fighting, Ukrainian authorities said. Zelensky said it was a deliberate attack on civilians using a Tochka U short-range ballistic missile. The Russian Defense Ministry denied attacking the station in Kramatorsk. (Reuters, 04.08.22, AP, 04.08.22)
• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has said a war crimes tribunal against Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov should be established amid the growing evidence of alleged atrocities. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)
• The United Nations' cultural agency, UNESCO, says at least 53 culturally important sites have been damaged since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. (RFE/RL, 04.02.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In mid-January, CIA Director William Burns made a secret trip to Kyiv to see Zelensky and to warn that Russian forces planned to seize Antonov Airport in Hostomel, and use it to fly in troops for a push to take Kyiv and decapitate the government. (The Wall Street Journal, 04.01.22)
• Russia has resorted to shelling large population centers like Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south. (The New York Times, 04.04.22)
  • The port of Odessa, west of Mariupol, was targeted for the first time over the weekend. (Financial Times, 04.04.22)
  • A residential area of the city of Mykolaiv, in Ukraine’s south, was targeted by Russian forces on April 4, according to the city’s mayor, the latest strikes on a city that had been under constant shelling for days. (The New York Times, 04.04.22)
• As of April 4 morning, Ukraine has captured 168 main battle tanks, 263 armored fighting vehicles, 73 armored personnel carriers, 89 artillery systems, 18 air defense systems, 210 military trucks and 92 other vehicles, according to the team of researchers at the Oryx blog,. (Defence Blog, 04.04.22)
• Russia is running its military campaign against Ukraine out of Moscow, with no central war commander on the ground to call the shots, according to American officials. (The New York Times, 04.01.22)
• Ukraine claimed that Russian forces in Crimea had conducted three Iskander missile strikes on the country’s Odessa region. (Financial Times, 04.02.22)
• The U.S. Defense Department has announced it is allotting $300 million in "security assistance" for Ukraine to bolster the country's defense capabilities. (RFE/RL, 04.02.22)
• Russia’s 331st Guards Airborne Regiment has been significantly damaged in fighting around Kyiv. Around 50 of the 331st’s paratroopers have died in Ukraine, according to open-source intelligence analysts. The regiment's commanding officer, Col. Sergei Sukharev, was killed in Ukraine on March 13. (Forbes, 04.03.22, BBC, 04.02.22)
• Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley predicted in Congress in early February that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could take Kyiv in just "72 hours.” Milley arrived to Congress to deliver another prediction April 5, this time saying the war in Ukraine could last "years." (Fox News, 04.06.22)
• Russian forces have completed their withdrawal from Kyiv. About 40 battalion tactical groups have left Kyiv and Chernihiv, a U.S. defense official said. Russia still has 80 of about 130 battalion tactical groups it originally deployed to Ukraine. (Financial Times, 04.06.22)
• Moscow initially sent 75 percent of its main ground combat forces into the war in February, Pentagon officials said. But much of that army of more than 150,000 troops is now a spent force. (The New York Times, 04.07.22)
• Ukraine is now receiving T-72 battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons from the West. (The New York Times, 04.07.22)
• The U.S. this week approved $100 million in security assistance for Ukraine to buy Javelin anti-tank systems. (Financial Times, 04.07.22)
• A bill approved by the Senate late on April 6 provides enhanced authority for Biden to enter into agreements with Kyiv to lend or lease defense items to Ukraine without having to heed export regulations that can slow the process down. (RFE/RL, 04.07.22)
• Zelensky has pleaded with the international community to provide more military supplies and to impose tighter sanctions on Russia. Ukraine’s foreign minister Kuleba, standing beside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, said he was asking NATO for military aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles and heavy air defense systems. (Financial Times, 04.07.22)
• The British Defense Ministry said on April 8 that Russian forces have advanced further south from the city of Izyum, which remains under their control. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)
• Slovakia has donated its Soviet-era S-300 air-defense system to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)
• After Mikhail Benyash, a Russian lawyer, said he would be defending a group of 12 national guardsmen who refused to join the war in Ukraine, he was inundated with calls from across the country. Approximately 60 paratroopers from Russia’s Pskov region have refused to be deployed to Ukraine, newspaper Pskovskaya Gubernia has reported. (Financial Times, 04.01.22, The Moscow Times/AFP, 04.08.22)
• NATO member states on April 7 agreed to supply new types of advanced weaponry to Ukraine. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• On April 7, Zelensky warned that Russia—which denies responsibility for the killings of civilians—was undeterred and continued "to accumulate fighting force to realize their ill ambitions in (eastern) Donbas." "They are preparing to resume an active offensive," he said, as officials in Donbas's Lugansk and Donetsk regions begged civilians to leave. (The Moscow Times, 04.07.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Russia’s economy will shrink 10% this year, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Financial Times, 03.31.22)
• Buyers of Russian gas still have weeks to pay for supplies in rubles, according to Peskov, meaning there will be no immediate halt to deliveries. (Financial Times, 04.01.22)
• S&P Global said its Purchasing Managers Index for Russia's manufacturing sector compiled from the answers to the survey had fallen to 44.1 in March from 48.6 in February. (The Wall Street Journal, 04.01.22)
• The perception of sanctions among Russians in March 2022 changed significantly compared to December 2021, according to a Levada Center poll. The share of Russians who said Western sanctions did not worry them either at all or not very much was 53% in March versus 66% in December. The share of those who said they were very or somewhat worried was 46% in March, up from 32% in December. (Russia Matters, 04.01.22)
• Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani has said that Qatar is reviewing its investments in Russia, and that it does not intend to make new investments at the moment. (bne IntelliNews, 04.03.22)
• Lithuania has stopped importing gas from Russia as of the beginning of April, the country's ministry of energy announced on April 2. The former Soviet republic is the first European Union country to fully cut off supply from Russia's Gazprom. (Axios, 04.03.22, AP, 04.03.22)
• Global Ports Holding, the London-listed port operator, has said it will forgo fees for hosting a superyacht suspected of belonging to sanctioned Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich even as it insisted it had done nothing wrong by harboring the vessel. (Financial Times, 04.04.22)
• Lars Klingbeil, head of Germany’s governing Social Democrats, said “an immediate [Russian] gas embargo [is] the wrong path, for many reasons.” (Financial Times, 04.04.22.)
• JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon said the bank could lose $1 billion “over time” because of its exposure to Russia, but it’s not something he’s worried about. He described complying with sanctions as an “enormous undertaking.” (The New York Times, 04.04.22)
• Since April 4, 206 Russian diplomats and embassy staff have been told they are no longer welcome to stay by governments in Italy, France, Germany and elsewhere, in addition to more than 100 reported to have already been thrown out since the beginning of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. (Guardian, 04.05.22)
• Putin's two adult daughters are being hit with financial sanctions, the White House has said. The wife and daughter of Lavrov were also being hit with financial sanctions. More broadly, Sberbank is being hit with full blocking sanctions, as well as the private Alfa Bank. A senior U.S. official said the new sanctions followed “the sickening brutality in Bucha.”(Financial Times, 04.06.22, RFE/RL, 04.06.22)
• Energy Minister Robert Habeck said Germany's Bundesnetzagentur energy regulator would become the trustee of Gazprom Germania until Sept. 30. The move comes after Russia's state-owned Gazprom said it was withdrawing from Gazprom Germania on April 1. (RFE/RL, 04.04.22)
• Spanish police who seized a $90 million yacht belonging to Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg were acting at the request of the United States. (RFE/RL, 04.04.22)
• Airbnb has suspended operations in Russia and Belarus. This means that new reservations cannot be made for stays in Russia or Belarus, and guests located in both countries will no longer be able to make new reservations anywhere in the world. (Kyiv Independent, 04.04.22)
• The Russian Finance Ministry said on April 6 that it had been forced to repay $649.2 million to foreign debt-holders in rubles after a correspondent bank refused to execute payment instructions. (AFP, 04.06.22)
• The U.K. announced an additional raft of sanctions, including full asset freezes against Sberbank. A further eight individuals linked to key Russian industries had sanctions imposed on them, including Andrey Akimov, the chief executive of Gazprombank, and Leonid Mikhelson, the founder and chief executive of gas company Novatek. Other individuals included Boris Borisovich Rotenberg and Sergey Kogogin of Kamaz. (Financial Times, 04.06.22)
• VTB Capital, the U.K. arm of Russia’s second-biggest lender has applied to go into administration, citing the impact of “paralyzing” sanctions. (Financial Times, 04.06.22)
• The Dutch government said on April 6 that it was stopping 14 superyachts from leaving the Netherlands, joining several other nations in freezing giant luxury vessels linked to Russian oligarchs. (The New York Times, 04.06.22)
• Finnish customs has seized artwork en route to Russia as part of sanctions imposed by the EU. The paintings, sculptures and antiquities—on loan from Russia to museums and galleries in Japan and Italy—are worth 42 million euros ($46 million), the agency said. (The Washington Post, 04.06.22)
• Russian media regulator Roskomnadzor has accused Google of violating Russian law and said it will take punitive measures against the giant tech company, including an advertising ban on the platform and its information resources. (RFE/RL, 04.07.22)
• The United States has announced the indictment of Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeyev. U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said on April 6 that Malofeyev had been identified as a source of financing for Russians promoting the separatists. (RFE/RL, 04.06.22)
• The EU has agreed on a fifth package of sanctions against Russia. It includes an embargo on Russian coal, starting from the beginning of August. The package also includes the closing of the bloc's ports to Russian vessels. That package also includes a 10 billion euro ban on exports to Russia, including high-tech goods, and the freezing of several Russian banks' assets. The list of Russian products banned from the EU is also being extended to include certain "critical raw materials and equipment" worth an estimated 5.5 billion euros a year. In addition, Russian and Belarusian road haulers are now banned from operating in the EU and the EU's blacklist is also being expanded by more than 200 names, including Russian oligarchs and Putin's two daughters. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22, The Moscow Times/AFP, 04.08.22)
• The Russians are using a variety of means to overcome Western sanctions. Among the most common are Russian cash-transfer companies that operate in Turkey, cryptocurrencies and simply carrying thousands of dollars in cash through airports. (The Wall Street Journal, 04.07.22)
• Shell said April 7 it expects to write off $4 billion to $5 billion worth of assets in the country—much more than the $3 billion of Russian noncurrent assets on its books at the end of last year. (The Wall Street Journal, 04.07.22)
• BP has warned that it could take a $25 billion hit as a result of its decision to divest a near 20% stake in Russian state oil company Rosneft. (Financial Times, 04.07.22)
• London’s marine insurance market on April 4 added all of Russia’s waters to its list of areas deemed high risk, which is likely to raise the cost of shipping and adds to the logistical pressures on Moscow. (Reuters, 04.04.22)
• An update to Britain's sanctions list announced asset freezes on Putin's adult daughters as well as Yekaterina Vinokurova, the daughter of Lavrov. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)
• The United Nations General Assembly voted on April 7 to suspend Russia from the U.N.'s Human Rights Council, only the second time ever such a move has been taken. The resolution received 93 votes in favor, 24 against, and 58 abstentions. (RFE/RL, 04.07.22)
• G7 leaders agreed to ban "new investments in key sectors of the Russian economy, including the energy sector," they said in a statement. The G7 has also condemned "in the strongest terms" what it calls the "atrocities" committed by Russia in the town of Bucha and other areas of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.07.22, AFP, 04.08.22)
• The U.S. government has banned exports to Russian state airline Aeroflot as well as two other carriers, Azur Air and Utair, for flying aircraft in violation of sanctions, the Commerce Department said April 7. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 04.08.22)
• The U.S. Congress has voted overwhelmingly to remove favorable trade status for goods from Russia and Belarus and to ban the import of Russian oil and other energy products. The trade legislation relegates Russia and Belarus into a group with Cuba and North Korea. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)
• A formal proposal for a Russian oil embargo will not be discussed by EU foreign ministers at a meeting on April 4, a senior EU official said, despite a statement by the bloc’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell that a ban was coming “sooner or later.” (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• Russia’s foreign ministry said on April 8 it would declare 45 Polish diplomats personae non grata. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• The price of palladium jumped by more than 10% on April 8 after newly produced Russian metal was effectively banned from trading in London. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• The March food price index published by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization rose 34% year on year, setting the third consecutive monthly record. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• In 2021, 36 out of 55 countries with food crises depended on Ukraine and Russian exports for more than 10% of their total wheat imports, including 21 countries with a major food crisis. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• Japan will gradually cut its reliance on coal imports from Russia, the country’s trade minister said on April 8 but did not give any specific timeframe. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• Volvo, the Swedish truck and bus manufacturer, said it had put aside SKr4 billion ($423 million) in provisions for the first quarter after suspending all operations in Russia. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• Austrian energy group OMV will take a 2 billion euro writedown on projects related to Russia, as the company tries to unwind its ties to the country following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Alrosa, the world’s largest diamond mining company, and a top Russian state-owned enterprise. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• Information-technology spending in Russia is expected to drop 39% this year as global business sanctions triggered by the invasion of Ukraine take their toll. (The Wall Street Journal, 04.08.22)
• Financial regulators in the Cayman Islands say companies there have frozen $7.3 billion in accounts believed to be tied to Russian oligarchs in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (The New York Times, 04.08.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Lavrov on April 7 said that in Turkey, "the Ukrainians clearly stated that future [international] security guarantees for Ukraine do not apply to Crimea and Sevastopol.” "In yesterday's draft, this clear statement is missing," he added. He also said that Ukrainians wanted the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to discuss Crimea and separatist-held territory in eastern Ukraine face-to-face. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 04.07.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Then U.S. President George W. Bush asked Condoleezza Rice to go join the animated discussion [during the 2008 NATO summit on potential Ukraine and Georgia membership]. The only common language among German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the east European leaders and Rice was Russian. So a compromise statement was negotiated in Russian and then drafted in English, Rice said. (The Wall Street Journal, 04.01.22)
• Zelensky lambasted the former leaders of Germany and France, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, in a video address released late on April 3, seemingly blaming them for the deaths of Ukrainian civilians. (The New York Times, 04.04.22)
• The U.S. successfully tested a hypersonic missile in mid-March but kept it quiet for two weeks to avoid escalating tensions with Russia as  Biden was about to travel to Europe, according to a defense official familiar with the matter. (CNN, 04.05.22)
• On April 5, 63 House Republicans voted against a symbolic resolution reaffirming support for NATO and its principles, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The "no" votes comprised more than 30 percent of the party's conference. (The Washington Post, 04.06.22)
• Central European NATO members like Poland and the Baltic states want a total break with Moscow and an effort to bring Russia to its knees, but countries like France, Germany and Turkey want to keep contacts with Putin regardless of the allegations of war crimes committed by his troops. (The New York Times, 04.06.22)
• There is a general agreement that Russia is no longer a strategic partner of NATO, that the alliance is no longer bound by the troop limits of the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act and that its military posture must be sharply enhanced to deter a confrontational Russia, so long as Putin and his allies retain power there. (The New York Times, 04.06.22)
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Josep Borrell, the European Union's top diplomat and Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger held talks with Zelensky in Ukraine on April 8. The EU is reopening its representation office in Kyiv and is increasing funding for military supplies to the country by 500 million euros, Borrel said. (Financial Times, 04.08.22, RFE/RL, 04.08.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• China reacted mutedly to allegations that Russian troops had committed atrocities against civilians in Ukraine as Beijing attempted to balance its support for Moscow with the growing fallout from the invasion. (Financial Times, 04.04.22)
• In their second phone call since Russia invaded Ukraine, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba on April 4 that Beijing continues to support peace talks and aims to play a constructive role. (SCMP, 04.05.22)
• During the EU-China summit China has offered the European Union assurances that it would seek peace in Ukraine on its own terms.  (RFE/RL, 04.02.22)
• Chinese universities have organized classes to give students a “correct understanding” of the war, often highlighting Russia’s grievances with the West. Party newspapers have run series of commentaries blaming the United States for the conflict. (The New York Times, 04.04.22)
• According to the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center, the top six nations where Russian central bank foreign currency assets are stowed by percentage are: China, 17.7 percent; France, 15.6 percent; Japan, 12.8 percent; Germany, 12.2 percent; U.S., 8.5 percent; and Britain, 5.8 percent. Also, the Bank of International Settlement and the International Monetary Fund have 6.4 percent. (The New York Times, 04.03.22.)
• See also “Energy exports from CIS” section below.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• The United States said on April 6 that it had secretly removed malware from computer networks around the world in recent weeks, a step to pre-empt Russian cyberattacks. The malware enabled the Russians to create ''botnets''—networks of private computers that are infected with malicious software and controlled by the GRU. (The New York Times, 04.07.22)
• By the end of the first 100-day campaign, which focused on electricity firms, almost 60% of electricity customers in America were covered by companies that had or pledged to have commercial cyberthreat sensors on their OT networks. Work with the natural gas sector followed, and in January a water sector effort began. (The Washington Post, 04.06.22)
• Microsoft says it has disrupted hacking attempts by a group of Russian military spies nicknamed "Strontium" and aimed at breaking into Ukrainian, European Union and U.S. targets. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)
• Ukrainian hacker Denys Iarmak, who was part of a notorious cybercrime group that stole millions of credit-card records has been sentenced in Seattle to five years in prison. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• China’s top liquefied natural gas importers are cautiously looking to purchase additional Russian shipments that have been shunned by the market in a bid to take advantage of cheap prices. (Bloomberg, 04.04.22)
• China's state refiners are honoring existing Russian oil contracts but avoiding new ones despite steep discounts, heeding Beijing's call for caution as western sanctions mount against Russia. (Reuters, 04.06.22)
• Hungary has broken ranks with the European Union, saying it will accept Moscow's demand that gas supplies be paid for in rubles. (RFE/RL, 04.06.22)
• The EU nations import 45% of their coal from Russia, worth 4 billion euros a year. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22, The Moscow Times/AFP, 04.08.22)
• See also “Punitive measures” section above.

Climate change:

• The global economy must pursue “a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use” to have any hope of avoiding catastrophic climate change, a major new U.N. report says. But as governments look for alternatives to oil and gas from Russia, the opposite will happen: Investment in drilling is only going to increase. (Quartz, 04.04.22)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• The U.S. imported $1.2 billion worth of seafood from Russia last year, a record amount and nearly triple the level in 2016. The amount is likely much higher if Chinese-processed Russian seafood is included. Twenty seven percent of the fish caught by Russian vessels in Russian waters was estimated to have been shipped to China to be processed before being exported to the U.S., according to a 2021 report by the U.S. International Trade Commission. (The Wall Street Journal, 06.07.22)
• The United States imported just under $30 billion in goods from Russia last year, including $17.5 billion in crude oil. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A new poll of U.S. adults conducted by Pew Research Center found the number of Americans who said Russia was an enemy had surged from 41 percent in January to 70 percent in late March, when the poll was conducted. Twenty-four percent described Russia as a competitor of the United States, while just 3 percent said it was a partner. (The Washington Post, 04.07.22)
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says if he were able to address the Russian people about the war in Ukraine, he would ask them how the war is answering any of their needs. The two countries have many "big things" that they should be working on, he said, citing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change as examples. "These are things that affect Americans and Russians and people all over the world. That's what we should be spending our time on," he said. (RFE/RL, 04.07.22)
• Former U.S. Marine Trevor Reed who is serving a nine-year prison term in Russia has been transferred to a prison medical facility amid a hunger strike he launched in late March, his attorneys said on April 4. (RFE/RL, 04.04.22)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The Levada Center said in a survey released on March 30 that more than 80% of Russian respondents support Putin’s actions. The poll was the first Levada has conducted since the conflict began on Feb. 24. The survey also showed 83% of Russians backing Putin, up from 71% in early February. (RFE/RL, 04.01.22)
• Russian police detained 176 people April 2 at protests against Moscow's military operation in Ukraine, an NGO said. (The Moscow Times, 04.02.22)
• Russia plans to end restrictions on flights to and from 52 “friendly countries” after April 9, part of its plans to reduce measures taken to slow the spread of COVID-19. (Reuters, 04.04.22)
• Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the self-exiled Russian oligarch and vocal Kremlin opponent, has called on Russian billionaires and officials who have fled Russia to publicly denounce Putin's war in Ukraine as criminal. (The Washington Post, 04.04.22)
• Sales of passenger cars in Russia in March 2022 crashed by 43% year on year to 78,900 units, marking a record-high monthly drop and the steepest since 2007, Autonews.ru reported. (bne IntelliNews, 04.06.22)
• Buried in a 421-page legal filing in an obscure court case is a single sentence, offered almost as an afterthought, about a meeting at a Geneva restaurant where two businessmen chatted about “a yacht which had been presented to Mr. Putin.” The yacht, called the Olympia, was managed by a company in Cyprus, where corporation filings show that the true owner was not Putin—it was the Russian government. (The New York Times, 04.06.22)
• The alleged mistress of Putin, Svetlana Krivonogikh, is renting out a luxury four-story apartment in St. Petersburg—complete with its own moat, according to a BBC investigation. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 04.08.22)
• Aluminium producer Rusal became the first Russian company to publicly call for a thorough and impartial investigation into the alleged war crimes in the Ukrainian town of Bucha and an early end to the conflict in Ukraine. (Financial Times, 04.07.22)
• Russia's dollar bond maturing in 2042 traded at 25 cents on the dollar on April 6, down from 98 cents the day before Ukraine was invaded, according to AdvantageData, a level normally associated with default. (The Wall Street Journal, 04.07.22)
• The ruble rallied past 72 to the dollar on April 8, its strongest level so far this year, heading away from a record low of 121.52 it hit on March 10. (Reuters, 04.08.22)
• Funeral services have been held for Russian ultranationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who died this week at the age of 75. Putin laid a bouquet of red roses near the coffin. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)
• Dmitry Muratov, the editor in chief of one of Russia's leading independent newspapers, Novaya gazeta, was attacked by an assailant who threw a mixture of red paint and acetone on him. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)
• The Bank of Russia said it would lower its key interest rate to 17% from its previous high of 20% in a bid to cushion the economy from the impact of western sanctions. (Financial Times, 04.08.22)
• As many as 78% of Russians support what the Kremlin claims to be a “special military operation” in Ukraine, according to a state-controlled pollster, the all-Russian Center for Studies of Public Opinion (VTsIOM). Only 17% disapprove of the operation while 9% could not say whether they supported or disapproved of it, according to the results of the poll, which VtSIOM claims to have held in Russia on April 5. (Russia Matters, 04.08.22)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• A court in Argentina has handed lengthy prison terms to two Russian-born men, Alexander Chikalo and Ivan Bliznyuk, convicted in an operation that uncovered almost 400 kilograms of cocaine on the premises of the Russian Embassy in Argentina in December 2016. (RFE/RL, 04.08.22)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The two European leaders most closely allied to Putin before he launched his invasion of Ukraine, Viktor Orban of Hungary and Serbia’s Alexander Vučić, won decisive election victories on pledges to stay out of the war. (Bloomberg, 04.03.22)
  • Savoring the election victory of a rare European leader who has not condemned him as a war criminal, Putin on April 4 congratulated Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary for winning a fourth term and said he looked forward to an expansion of “partnership ties.” (The New York Times, 04.04.22)
  • Serbia’s populist pro-Kremlin president, Aleksandar Vučić, won a landslide victory in April 3’s general election. (Guardian, 04.03.22)
• Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's current president and former foreign minister, conceded on April 5 that German policy towards Russia in recent years should have been more cautious and skeptical. (DW, 04.05.22)
• Australia has sanctioned 39 Russians over their alleged links to corruption uncovered by Ukrainian-born Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky as well as those who appear to have been involved in his mistreatment and death in a Moscow prison in 2009. (OCCRP, 04.04.22) 
• "We appreciate that India is taking this situation in the entirety of facts, not just in a one-sided way," Lavrov said at a press conference ahead of talks with his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. The two-day visit to India follows Lavrov’s stop-off in China, where he spoke of the beginning of what he called “a multipolar, just, democratic world order.” (The Moscow Times, 04.01.22)
  • Russian state development bank VEB.RF and the Reserve Bank of India have set up a direct payment channel as an alternative to SWIFT. Reportedly, the channel will serve transactions in rupee and rubles, most notably for Russian oil and gas. (bne IntelliNews, 04.03.22)
  • Brian Deese, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, has warned India that it would face a “significant and long-term” hit if it moved into a “strategic alignment” with Russia. (Financial Times, 04.06.22)
• Germany’s Russian community organized a mass motorcade in Berlin on April 3 in support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Around 900 people in 400 cars drove through the city, carrying banners that read “No propaganda in schools,” “Stop hatred against Russians” and photos of Putin. (bne IntelliNews, 04.06.22)

Ukraine:

• Zelensky appeared at the 64th annual Grammy Awards to give a pre-taped speech amid Russia’s continued invasion of his country. (Variety, 04.03.22)
• On April 5, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) announced it has purchased 1,333 terminals from SpaceX to send to Ukraine to boost Internet access, while the company donated 3,667 terminals and the Internet service itself.  (The Washington Post, 04.08.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Kazakhstan will not help Russia to evade Western sanctions imposed on Moscow over its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Timur Suleimenov, the deputy chief of the Kazakh presidential office, said. (RFE/RL, 04.01.22)
• Moldova has denied claims by Ukraine’s military that Russian troops are massing in the breakaway Transnistria enclave in Moldova and mobilizing for a possible attack that could open another front in the war. (Financial Times, 04.02.22)
• Kyrgyzstan has taken over the Kumtor gold mine after the government reached an out-of-court settlement with the Canadian Centerra Gold company. (RFE/RL, 04.04.22)
• Donors attending the Moldova Support Conference in Berlin, co-organized by Germany, France and Romania, have pledged 695 million to help the small ex-Soviet country as it deals with an influx of refugees from neighboring Ukraine. (bne IntelliNews, 04.06.22)
• Uzbek border guards have shot to death two men at a disputed segment of the border with Kyrgyzstan. (RFE/RL, 04.06.22)
• Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev says his country respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.06.22)
• The president of Belarus, Russia's main ally, on April 7 urged for Minsk to be included in peace talks aimed at ending the "war" in Ukraine, using a term banned by Moscow. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 04.07.22)
• The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to start drafting a bilateral "peace treaty" and set up a joint commission on demarcating their common border during fresh talks in Brussels hosted by European Council President Charles Michel. (RFE/RL, 04.07.22)

 

IV. Quotable

• “An entire country cannot rely on oil and gas prices rising forever if the economy as a whole is going to grow and be healthy,” Jim O’Neill, the economist who coined the term “BRIC,” told Spiegel International. “In the case of Russia, it’s the scale of corruption and the terrible demographics [that’s the problem]—in particular, the low life expectancy among men. Productivity was and still is a huge issue.” (Russia Matters, 04.04.22)