Below is an evolving timeline of key events shaping the first year of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, along with hyperlinks to resources with more detailed information. This chronology has been compiled by Vlad Wallace and RM staff. First published in April 2023.

January 2022

• The Biden administration and its allies assemble a punishing set of sanctions they say would go into effect within hours of an invasion of Ukraine. According to multiple news sources, these include an expanded NATO military presence in Eastern Europe; arming would-be insurgents in Ukraine; cutting off Russia’s largest financial institutions from global transactions; and imposing an export control.
• Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister and lead negotiator in talks with the U.S., NATO and the OSCE on Russia’s proposals for two treaties says on Jan. 13 that the talks have run into a “dead end.”  
• Biden says Jan. 18 that he expected Putin would order an invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. response would depend on what Russia does.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says Jan. 18 that he is inviting Western allies and Russia to hold another set of security talks soon to “try to find a way forward to prevent any military attack against Ukraine.”
• Top U.S. and Russian diplomats agree on Jan. 21 to keep diplomacy alive in their standoff over Ukraine.
• China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi calls for abandoning Cold War mentality, warns the U.S. and its allies not to “hype up the crisis” around Ukraine and says that abiding by the Minsk II agreement would help resolve the conflict.
• The Biden administration announces on Jan. 25 that it is working with gas and crude oil suppliers from the Middle East, North Africa and Asia to bolster supplies to Europe, trying to plan contingency measures if Russia invades Ukraine and disrupts supplies to Europe. 
• Biden says that no U.S. or NATO troops will be sent into Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion.
• Moscow asks Washington to return all American nuclear weapons from NATO countries to U.S. territory per one of the two treaties, which Russia has proposed to sign with U.S. and NATO.
• Russia continues to mass forces on the Ukrainian border, with troops now surrounding large parts of the country.
• Senior Ukrainian and Russian officials discuss lack of progress in implementing the Minsk-2 peace accord on Jan. 26.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko says Jan. 28 his country would go to war if its key ally Russia was attacked.
• Russia’s top diplomat insists on Jan. 28 that Russia will not start a war with Ukraine after Biden warns there is a “distinct possibility” it could invade in February.

February 2022

• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says his country will never give special status to parts of Donbas that have been under the control of Moscow-backed separatists since April 2014.
• President Xi Jinping of China and Putin meet in Beijing on Feb. 4 ahead of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, in a highly choreographed display of solidarity that presents a continuing challenge to the United States’ dominance on the world stage. The two leaders agree to pursue a partnership without limits.
• Biden in an interview with NBC News on Feb. 10 warns Americans in Ukraine to leave immediately and reiterates that under no circumstances would he send U.S. troops to Ukraine, even to rescue Americans in case of a Russian invasion.
• The long-stalled Minsk-2 agreement figured prominently on the agenda of the meeting between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and France’s Emmanuel Macron in Moscow.
• Biden administration officials say they have a twin set of punitive measures “ready to go as soon as the first shots are fired” by Russia in Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s armed forces are gearing up for military exercises in response to Russia’s troop buildup along its borders.
• Russia on Feb. 17 says it will be “forced to respond” with military-technical measures if the United States does not agree to its security demands.
• Antony Blinken, U.S. secretary of state, invites his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to meet in Europe to prepare a possible summit of pivotal leaders to resolve “mutual security concerns.” Late on Feb. 17, Ned Price, the U.S. state department’s spokesperson, says Russia has responded with possible dates for a meeting with Blinken, which the U.S. accepted, conditional on Russia not having invaded Ukraine.
• Biden prepares to speak with NATO allies on Feb. 18 as U.S. officials say that as many as 190,000 Russian troops are arrayed in and near Ukraine, including Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, despite Moscow’s claims earlier that it was withdrawing forces.
• Germany’s foreign minister suggests for the first time on Feb. 18 that military action by Moscow could mean the end of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
• On Feb. 21, Putin says Russia should recognize the independence of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, in an emotional address on state-run television, and on Feb. 22, Russian lawmakers gave Putin unanimous approval to deploy "peacekeepers" to two breakaway Ukrainian regions.
• Russian forces invade Ukraine on Feb. 24 in a mass multi-pronged assault by land, sea and air from the north, east and south as Putin announces the launch of a “special military operation” there. In announcing the operation Putin makes clear his target goes beyond his neighbor to America’s “empire of lies,” and he threatens “consequences you have never faced in your history” for “anyone who tries to interfere with us.”
• Ukraine reports columns of troops pouring across its borders from Russia and Belarus and landing on the coast from the Black and Azov seas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky introduces martial law and urges people to remain calm in a brief video address on Feb. 24 morning. 
• The Kremlin says on Feb. 24 that the length of  the “special military operation” in Ukraine depends on how it progresses on its aims, and that the assault should ideally cleanse the country of "Nazis" and "neutralize" Kyiv's military potential.
• The Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, is under bombardment on Feb. 25 morning, with missile strikes and a rocket crashing into a residential building as the second day of Russia’s military offensive presses closer to the heart of the government.
• Biden and his NATO counterparts agree on Feb. 25 to send thousands of troops backed by air and naval support to protect NATO allies near Russia and Ukraine in response to Putin’s decision to invade.
• The Russian military is unable to seize control of Ukrainian airspace, a senior U.S. defense official says Feb. 25.
• Putin on Feb. 25 calls on the Ukrainian army to overthrow the government whose leaders he describes as "terrorists" and "a gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis."
• Ukraine says it will posthumously honor those Ukrainian border guards who were killed defending the tiny island of Zmeinyi in the Black Sea during a multi-pronged Russian invasion.
• NATO leaders meeting in a virtual summit say they agree to make “significant additional defensive deployments of forces” to the east of the alliance. British and NATO troops must not play an active role in Ukraine, a U.K. defense minister says, to avoid “unnecessary” escalation of the conflict.
• The Russian attack on Ukraine is prompting a flurry of activity among far-right European militia leaders, who are taking to the internet to raise funds, recruit fighters and plan travel to the front lines to confront the country’s invaders, according to a research group.

March 2022

• In an unprecedented move, the usually slow-moving International Criminal Court is opening an immediate investigation of possible war crimes by Russia in Ukraine.
• With more than 1 million refugees being driven out of Ukraine as Russian forces shell cities and accelerate their push to cut Ukraine off from its coastline, Russian and Ukrainian delegations agree on March 3 on a mechanism to allow “humanitarian corridors” to be created for the evacuation of civilians trapped in areas under Russian attack.  
• Following a 90-minute phone call with Putin on March 3, French President Emmanuel Macron says he believes "the worst is to come" in Ukraine.
• Russian forces in Ukraine seize the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on March 4.
• The U.S. and Russian militaries establish a special line to communicate with one another through the crisis spawned by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Russia on March 4 passes a law imposing a jail term of up to 15 years for spreading intentionally "fake" news about the military.
• Western sanctions imposed as a result of the invasion are battering Russia’s economy, leaving collateral damage among both global businesses and ordinary Russians. Allied foreign ministers meet on March 4 to assess the sanctions and to discuss their impact and potential further measures down the line.
• The White House on March 4 says the U.S. economy is in a position strong enough that it could likely withstand the impact of a U.S. ban on the import of Russian oil.
• A first-time $13.6 billion aid package for Ukraine is unveiled on March 9 by Congress, with “$3 billion in new weapons.” It is signed by Biden on March 15.
• On March 10 Putin endorses a plan to nationalize foreign-owned businesses that flee Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
• Russian forces launch multiple missile attacks on a wide range of targets across Ukraine in the early hours of March 11, including a first-time hit to the central city of Dnipro.
• Russian officials accuse the U.S. of funding biowarfare efforts in Ukraine. Biden says on March 11 that Russia “will pay a severe price” if it uses chemical weapons.
• Putin seethes against pro-Western Russians on March 16, calling them “scum and traitors” who need to be removed from society as “slave-like” stooges whom the West wants to use as a "fifth column" to destroy Russia.
• Putin says that the goal of the “special military operation” in Ukraine is to “rid people of genocide.”
• U.S. media reports that Russia has asked China for military and economic aid for its war in Ukraine. The White House warns that Beijing would face severe “consequences” if it helps Moscow evade sanctions.
• At least three senior Russian officials reiterate Moscow’s position, enshrined in its strategic documents, that nuclear weapons use would be an option if the Russian leadership believed the country’s survival was at risk.
• Putin says on March 23 that Russia will seek payment in rubles for gas sold to "unfriendly" countries, driving up European gas prices by more than 30%.
• More than a quarter of a million Russians have left their country, by some estimates, since the invasion of Ukraine.
• Putin tells his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, that shelling of the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol will only end when Ukrainian troops surrender.
• On March 29 Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, commander of U.S. European Command, reveals that Russian troops have begun retreating from positions around the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv as a part of a “major strategy shift.” As part of the retreat, Russian forces transfer control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant back to Ukrainian authorities, but plant workers say the departing troops also take more than 100 Ukrainian national guardsmen as prisoners of war. The retreat is evidence that the Kremlin’s plan for a rapid seizure of most of Ukraine east of the Dnieper river and of Kyiv have failed.

April 2022

• Russian forces complete their withdrawal from the Kyiv area, retaining 80 of about 130 battalion tactical groups originally deployed to Ukraine, a U.S. official says on April 6. On April 7, Zelensky warns that Russian forces "are preparing to resume an active offensive" in eastern Ukraine.
• At least 39 people are killed and 87 wounded in a missile strike on April 8 on a railway station in Kramatorsk that was packed with women, children and elderly trying to flee fighting, Ukrainian authorities say.
• The mayor of Bucha says on April 8 that the authorities in the town have so far collected the bodies of about 320 people killed during weeks of occupation by Russia’s army. Ukraine’s prosecutor-general says 410 bodies of civilians have been recovered from the Kyiv region.
• The U.S. Congress votes to remove favorable trade status for goods from Russia.
• The U.S. and U.K. decide to sanction the daughters of Putin and Lavrov.
• The Pew Research Center finds the number of Americans who say Russia is an enemy has surged from 41% in January 2022 to 70% in late March 2022.

• Kazakhstan authorities say they will not help Russia to evade Western sanctions imposed on Moscow over its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
• The latest $800 million package to Ukraine from the U.S. will include armored vehicles as well as laser-guided rocket systems and drones. Additionally, the Pentagon is resuming direct training of the Ukrainian military, as will British troops. 
• The missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, sinks on April 14 after being hit by Ukrainian missiles. The Moskva is the biggest warship by tonnage to sink during a conflict since World War II. About 40 men are reportedly killed and another 100 injured.
• Russia considers “U.S./NATO weapons transports” to be “legitimate military targets” once they are inside Ukraine.
• Senior Kremlin insiders say they increasingly share the fear voiced by U.S. officials that Putin could turn to the limited use of nuclear weapons if faced with failure in Ukraine. Lavrov refuses to give an unequivocal answer when asked on April 19 whether Russia would resort to the use of tactical nukes in Ukraine.
• The White House details a plan to accept 100,000 Ukrainian refugees.
• Biden warns on April 28 that ''No one should be making idle comments about the use of nuclear weapons or the possibility that they could use that.” ''It's irresponsible,” Biden says after Putin asserts that “if someone decides to intervene in the ongoing events [in Ukraine] from the outside and create strategic threats to Russia that are unacceptable to us ... our retaliatory-offensive strikes will be lightning fast. ”Putin appears to be losing interest in diplomatic efforts to end his war and instead appears set on seizing as much Ukrainian territory as possible. Putin’s top aide Patrushev foresees the “disintegration of Ukraine into several states.”

May 2022

• An AP investigation of a Russian strike on a Mariupol theater estimates that about 600 civilians, who were seeking shelter in the building, may have been killed in the strike on March 16.
• March 2022’s U.S. export volume to Russia is the lowest in the history of U.S.-Russian trade since monthly data became available in 2002.
• After Russia’s near-total conquest of the Azov sea port of Mariupol, Russian officials appear to be laying the groundwork for annexing swaths of southeast Ukraine.
• In a highly unusual move, former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng speaks against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to Gao, the odds are stacked so heavily against Putin that “it’s only a matter of time before Russia is fully defeated.”
• Sweden and Finland apply for NATO membership on May 18. Biden calls Sweden and Finland's applications for NATO membership "a watershed moment in European security.” Putin says “there is no direct threat for Russia” from NATO’s expansion into Finland and Sweden, but warns that Moscow would respond if they deployed new military hardware there.
• Putin tells Italy’s Draghi he is ready to make a "significant contribution" to averting a looming food crisis — which the West partially blames on Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports — if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia.
• Sources close to the Kremlin ay Kremlin officials are hopeful again that Moscow could “bring the war in Ukraine to victory” this fall.
• The Biden administration’s China policy aims to lead the countries now jointly opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into a broader coalition to counter what Washington sees as a more serious threat posed by Beijing.
• EU leaders reach a landmark political agreement to ban 90% of the bloc’s sea-borne Russian oil imports by year’s end.
• Biden lays out his Ukraine strategy. While promising more advanced weaponry, Biden reiterates that the U.S. would not put troops on the ground in Ukraine, will not try to bring about Putin’s ouster, and is “not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders. We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia,” Biden writes.

June 2022

• June 3 marks the 100th day of fighting in Ukraine. Zelensky says Russian forces now control 20% of his country.
• A flurry of diplomatic activity is focusing on getting much-needed stocks of Ukrainian and Russian grain and fertilizers to market, with Putin meeting the leader of the African Union, U.N. officials holding "constructive discussions" in Moscow and offering “comfort letters” to shipping and insurance companies and Russia’s foreign minister heading to Turkey for talks.
• Prosecutors investigating war crimes cases in Ukraine are examining allegations of the forcible deportation of children to Russia as they seek to build a genocide indictment.
• Putin says on June 9 that it is his “destiny” to “return and fortify” territories, much like it had been for Peter I.
• Russia’s recent advances in the Donbas are making it “very, very difficult” for Ukraine to win the war, says Zelensky’s key advisor Danilov. The central problem for Ukrainians fighting in the Donbas is a mismatch of artillery capabilities.
• Biden announces $1 billion worth of new arms for Ukraine on June 15 as Ukraine’s hunt for weapons in the global arms market faces increasing competition from Russia.
• Xi tells Putin in a call on June 15 that Beijing would keep backing Moscow on "sovereignty and security.” Xi also stresses that China has always made independent judgments based on the historical merits of the Ukrainian issue. The Kremlin’s account of the call says Xi “noted the legitimacy of the actions taken by Russia to protect the fundamental national interests in the face of challenges to its security created by external forces.”
• Ukrainian forces retreat from the strategic hub of Severodonetsk in eastern Ukraine in the face of a brutal Russian offensive.
• Peskov says on June 24 that Russia hopes Ukraine and Moldova’s ties with Moscow will not worsen after the European Union granted the two countries candidate status for EU membership. In contrast, Lavrov says the EU and NATO are gathering a coalition for war with Moscow.
• Xi and Putin take turns virtually attending the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) and BRICS summit in Beijing, respectively. “Cooperation between China and Russia is currently ascending in all spheres,” Xi tells the conference. In his turn, Putin tells the BRICS summit that “the world needs the BRICS countries’ leadership in defining a unifying and positive course for forming a truly multipolar system of interstate relations.” 
• Putin says on June 25 that Russia will deliver missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads to Belarus in the coming months. 
• Putin vows that Russia would “undoubtedly” achieve its goals in Ukraine. He also asserts that the West’s “economic blitzkrieg” against Russia was failing as the ruble traded at its strongest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2015.
• Leaders of the Group of Seven condemn Russia for the "abominable" attack on a mall in the city of Kremenchuk in central Ukraine, calling it a "war crime.”
• White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war.
• Asked on June 29 whether “the goals of the special operation [had] changed,” Putin says:  “Nothing has changed, of course … I have formulated the overall goal, which is to liberate Donbas, protect its people and create conditions that will guarantee the security of Russia itself. That is all. We are working calmly and steadily… We are not speaking about any deadlines.”
• G-7 leaders fail to agree on new sanctions against Russia at their summit due to diverging opinions but plan to discuss new measures—ranging from a price cap on Russian oil purchases to a gold embargo
• NATO declares Russia the "most significant and direct threat” to its members’ peace and security in its new strategic concept adopted at a summit in Madrid. The concept also defines China as “a challenge” to the alliance’s security.

 July 2022

• Putin challenges Western countries on July 7  “to defeat us on the battlefield,” warning that “we have not started anything in earnest yet.” A day earlier Dmitry Medvedev invoked the possibility of nuclear war if the International Criminal Court punished Moscow for Ukraine, while speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin threatened to somehow take Alaska from the U.S.
• Blinken refuses to meet Lavrov on the sidelines of a meeting of G-20 foreign ministers in Indonesia on July 8, criticizing Russia for blocking Ukrainian grain exports. In his turn, Russia’s top diplomat walks out twice in the course of the meeting’s sessions as his German and Ukrainian counterparts prepared to criticize Russia’s conduct in Ukraine.
• Lavrov proclaims an expansion of Russia’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine, stating that "now, the geography is different. And it is not only [the Donbas] but also the Kherson region, the Zaporizhzhia region and a number of other territories, and the process continues, and it continues consequently and persistently."
• Moscow and Kyiv clinch a grain exports deal on July 22 with Turkey and the U.N. clearing the way for exporting millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea—as well as Russian grain and fertilizer.

• Iran signs an agreement on July 27 to supply spare parts for Russian civil aircraft.
• Blinken and Lavrov hold their first conversation since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on July 29. Blinken tells Lavrov "the world expects Russia to fulfill its commitments” per the U.N.-brokered agreement on exports of Ukrainian grain. Lavrov confirms he discussed the grain deal with Blinken and criticizes the U.S. for supplying arms to Ukraine.
• Russia is in lockstep with China on Taiwan as Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov expresses solidarity after Xi warns Biden not to "play with fire" over the self-ruled island.

August 2022

• Putin proclaims in his written address to the NPT review conference that he “believe[s] that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, and we stand for equal and indivisible security for all members of the world community.”
• Russian government officials use an existing FSB backchannel to tell their U.S. counterparts that they want FSB Col. Vadim Krasikov to be included in Washington's proposed swap of Viktor Bout for Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan.
• Putin wants to resume peace talks with Ukraine, according to his friend and ex-German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who believes negotiations can succeed through a compromise for Donbas based on a "Swiss canton model” and “armed neutrality” for Ukraine as an alternative to NATO membership.
• Moscow sides with Beijing over U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan following Lavrov’s meeting with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi on Aug. 3 in which he calls his Chinese counterpart a “dear friend” and tells him he is “convinced that our strategic partnership is one of the pillars of the movement for the triumph of international law.”
• The U.S. commits to the largest military aid package to Ukraine to date on Aug. 8, in which Washington will send $1 billion in additional military aid to Kyiv, including ammunition for HIMARS and anti-armor systems.
• Russia sees no prospects for a diplomatic solution yet, in the view of Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s permanent representative to the U.N. in Geneva. Both sides are so dug in that “there are no prospects for peace at all—only a ceasefire,” a person close to the Kremlin states.
• Gorbachev dies aged 91. As Western leaders praise his implementation of democratic reforms in the USSR, Russians react with criticism expressed alongside tributes, reflecting his polarizing legacy within Russia.

September 2022

• Both of the Zaporizhzhia NPP’s operational rectors are temporarily cut off from Ukraine’s power grid on Aug. 25. As a result, IAEA inspectors arrive at the nuclear power plant on Sept. 1 to conduct an impartial assessment of the situation and to monitor developments on a permanent basis.
• G-7 countries agree to introduce a price cap on purchases of Russian oil as Gazprom extends Nord Stream 1 shutdown. 
• Blinken makes a surprise visit to Kyiv on Sept. 8 to meet Zelensky and announces an additional $675 million in weapons for Ukraine.
• Kyiv abandons the idea of committing to not pursue NATO membership and now wants only its Western partners to become Ukraine’s security guarantors.
• Putin acknowledges Xi’s concerns over his war in Ukraine during their meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan on Sept. 15. Xi also thanks Putin and calls him an “old friend” and notes that he wants Russia to join China in “inject[ing] stability and positive energy” into the world. India’s Modi also weighs in on the subject, telling Putin “I know today's time is not a time for war" and stresses the importance of "democracy and diplomacy and dialogue.”
• Putin orders “partial” mobilization in his Sept. 21 address to the nation and endorses annexation of parts of Ukraine all while brandishing his nuclear saber. 
• Russia and Ukraine agree to one of the largest exchanges of prisoners of war in the seven-month conflict. Putin's ally Viktor Medvedchuk and 55 servicemen are handed over to Russia in exchange for 215 Ukrainian POWs, including officers of a Ukrainian far-right unit, the Azov regiment.
• The Biden administration announces $1 billion more in military aid to Ukraine, but support in Congress for continued aid may be waning as Republicans in the House question whether the money would be better spent combating China.
• Putin signs off on accession treaties on Sept. 30 laying a formal claim to the territories of Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

October 2022

• Recent Ukrainian advances leave Russia unsure of which parts of the newly-annexed regions of Ukraine to claim as its own as criticism of war management mounts. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, says that any decision on how much territory in Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to annex requires further consultation with the local population.
• OPEC+ defies U.S. pressure, siding with Russia on oil production cuts.
• Russia seeks continued cooperation with the U.S. in manned space exploration, with Russia’s space agency saying on Oct. 4 it is seeking to continue its participation in the multi-nation International Space Station beyond 2024.
• “Ask Biden,” Putin says when asked if he is ready to negotiate with the U.S. leader at the G20. “I do not see the need, to be honest, there is still no platform for any kind of negotiations” with the U.S. president, Putin says on the sidelines of a CICA summit in Kazakhstan. At the same time, “we have always said that we are open” for negotiations with Ukraine on ending the war, Putin says. A day prior to Putin’s Oct. 14 remarks, Zelensky—who plans to attend the Nov. 15-16 G-20 summit in Indonesia, says “there cannot be diplomacy” with Putin.  
• Biden’s new National Security Strategy points to the alignment of China and Russia and expresses support for Ukraine’s EU aspirations, but keeps mum on prospects of its NATO membership.
•  Iranian drones leave Ukraine without power as millions of Ukrainians across the country face shortages of electricity, water and heat—and the prospect of a desolate winter without basic services.
• Putin imposes martial law on Oct. 19 in four illegally annexed regions of Ukraine and less severe restrictions across Russia amid mobilization backlash.
• “We are in for probably the most dangerous, unpredictable and at the same time most important decade since the end of WWII,” Putin tells the annual Valdai Forum on Oct. 28. “This historical period of boundless Western domination in world affairs is coming to an end. The unipolar world is being relegated into the past. We are at a historical crossroads,” the Russian leader says when explaining what factors make the current decade so dangerous in his view.
• China seeks to deepen its relationship with Russia at all levels and any attempt to block the progress of the two nations will never succeed, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi declares in a phone conversation with Lavrov. In his turn, Lavrov "expresses gratitude to the Chinese side for supporting Russia's position in favor of a fair settlement."

November 2022

• Russia cannibalizes parts from Western household appliances for military purposes, and it may be one reason why Armenia imported more washing machines from the EU during the first eight months of this year than in the past two years combined, while Kazakhstan imported three times as many European refrigerators through August as in the same period last year.
• Russia announces on Nov. 2 that it is resuming its participation in the Ukraine grain deal as Erdoğan credits his personal rapport with Putin for Russia’s quick return to the U.N.-backed pact. 
• China expresses concerns over Russia’s conduct in Ukraine, warning against the use of nuclear weapons. The international community should “oppose the use of or the threat to use nuclear weapons, advocate that nuclear weapons cannot be used and that nuclear wars must not be fought and prevent a nuclear crisis in Eurasia,” Xi says during his Nov. 4 talks with Scholz.
• Russia announces on Nov. 9 that it is withdrawing its forces to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, abandoning the city of Kherson.
• The G-20 summit, which Biden and Xi are attending, but which Putin is choosing to skip, adopts a declaration on Nov. 16 that states: “the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.” That the Kremlin published a translation of the declaration on its website, as did the Foreign Ministry, indicates that Putin—who sent Lavrov to the G-20 on his behalf—concedes to the declaration’s language, including the proposition that threats of use of nuclear weapons are unacceptable.
• Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure reach an unprecedented intensity on Nov. 15 and 17, leaving 10 million Ukrainians without power.
• Iran agrees to set up production of its military drones in Russia. The agreement was reached earlier in Nov., according to Western security agencies, which believe Russia has already procured and deployed more than 400 Iranian-made attack drones against Ukraine since August. 

December 2022

• China calls for peace in Ukraine after Chinese and Russian bombers conduct patrols over the Sea of Japan. Solving the Ukraine crisis through political means is in the best interest of Europe and the common interest of all countries in Eurasia, Xi tells EC President Charles Michel on Dec. 1.
• EU governments agree on Dec. 2 on a price cap on Russian seaborne oil, but it is well above Russia’s cost of production.
• Vladimir Putin chooses a video session of his human rights council on Dec. 7 to admit that the war could be a “long process.” Second, he touts territories seized from Ukraine as a “significant result for Russia.” Last but not least, the Russian leader tones down his nuclear rhetoric. Not only does he choose not to repeat his recent threats to use nuclear weapons to reverse Ukraine’s gains in recapturing its land, but he also explicitly pledges to avoid “brandish[ing] these weapons like a razor.”
• House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy says there will be no more “blank check[s]” when it comes to aiding Ukraine. “I want to make sure whatever funding we spend goes to the right places,” McCarthy asserts.
• Russia scraps New START consultations with the U.S., signaling an unwillingness to compartmentalize relations.
• Biden welcomes Zelensky in the U.S. on Dec. 21 and announces a $1.8 billion package of military aid, including Patriots.
• Xi tells Medvedev he is hoping for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and is willing to mediate. Xi hosts Medvedev in Beijing on Dec. 21, reportedly telling the deputy chairman of Putin’s Security Council that China is willing to play a role to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine. “China hopes relevant parties can stay rational and restrained, conduct comprehensive talks and resolve mutual concerns on security via political methods,” Xi says.  In his response, Medvedev says the Ukraine crisis “has its causes and is very complex,” and that Russia is willing to resolve the problems it faces through peace talks.
• Putin tells Israeli PM Bennett that the Ukrainians were tougher “than I was told.” “This will probably be much more difficult than we thought. … [But] we are a big country and we have patience,” Putin tells Bennett.
• Ukraine’s deadly strike in Makiivka on Dec. 31 highlights enduring command failures on the Russian side, with more than 400 Russian soldiers killed.
• Between the launch of the invasion and the end of December, 17,831 civilian casualties (including 6,884 deaths and 10,947 injuries) have been recorded by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. The office noted, however, that the actual casualty figures were likely far higher due to data-gathering hurdles posed by ongoing hostilities and insufficient corroborating evidence.