Mariia Vladymyrova (University of Copenhagen) discusses the Northern Sea Route (NSR) legal regime as an exemplary instance of Russia's use of lawfare as a tool of coercive signaling in the Arctic. In this discussion and Q&A with Dr. Emily Holland, we will discuss Russia’s 2022 restriction on foreign warships and government vessel navigation along the NSR and within Russia’s newly announced Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor (TATC). The TATC is designed to create alternative shipping routes for Russian energy beyond the reach of Western sanctions. While the NSR is presented as commercial development initiative, the project reveals a deeper military-strategic logic: the NSR serves as the critical connector within the TATC, integrating Siberia's major riverways into a unified network that supports the forward naval deterrence posture of Russia's Northern and Pacific Fleets. Mariia argues that for NATO, understanding Russia's legal strategy in the Arctic is not merely about preserving the rule of law in global oceans, but an imperative of credible deterrence posture today.

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