In the Thick of It
A blog on the U.S.-Russia relationshipPoll: Russians See Biggest WMD Threats Coming From US, Al-Qaida, 'Chechens'
We at Russia Matters tend to treat claims by state-owned pollsters with a grain of salt, especially when it comes to political rankings. Nevertheless, we feel compelled to share the results of the following survey conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) in May, as it gives some fascinating insights into ordinary Russians’ thinking about nuclear-, biological- and chemical-weapons threats to their country.
When asked to assess what actor is most likely to launch an attack using weapons of mass destruction against Russia, respondents said they view the United States, al-Qaeda and “Chechen terrorists” as the first, second and third likeliest sources of such an attack, respectively. (A decade ago Russians ranked those potential attackers in the reverse order.)
In addition to highlighting Russians’ traditional reservations about the world’s military superpower (now exacerbated by an anti-American mood), such a ranking suggests that the Russian public fears the proliferation of WMD among non-state actors, even though no such attack has occurred since the 1990s when Chechen rebels planted radioactive materials in a Moscow park and blew up a chlorine tank in Grozny. It is also interesting that, perhaps for the sake of consistency, VTsIOM continues to refer to “Chechen terrorists” in its list of possible answers even though the insurgency in Chechnya has been all but quashed, with neighboring Dagestan now accounting for more political violence than any other Russian region.
Surprisingly, judging by the poll, Russians are not as concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons among states. Not only do countries (other than the U.S.) rank lower in the threat list than non-state groups, but also a small majority of respondents (41%) think that Russia and the other official nuclear powers should not punish other countries for pursuing nukes, versus 38% who said aspirants to the nuclear club should be punished. Such public sentiments are, perhaps, a reflection of the fact that the Russian leadership has been traditionally less forceful than their Western counterparts in negotiating with Iran and North Korea over their nuclear programs.
See detailed results below.
|
Which of the following countries and organizations do you think pose a threat to Russia related to the use of weapons of mass destruction? (multiple answers allowed, %)1 |
||||
|
Actor |
Jan. 2006 |
Oct. 2006 |
July 2009 |
May 2017 |
|
USA |
33 |
37 |
38 |
50 |
|
Al-Qaida |
38 |
27 |
24 |
32 |
|
Chechen terrorists |
55 |
41 |
46 |
15 |
|
North Korea |
7 |
11 |
18 |
13 |
|
Britain |
4 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
|
China |
14 |
12 |
20 |
7 |
|
Iran |
15 |
10 |
15 |
6 |
|
France |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
Pakistan |
11 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
|
Israel |
4 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
|
India |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Other terrorist groups (this option not given in 2009 and 2017) |
34 |
23 |
0 |
0 |
|
Others |
2 |
2 |
2 |
19 |
|
No country or organization |
4 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
|
Difficult to say |
12 |
13 |
10 |
7 |
1Note that ISIS is not mentioned.
|
What policy, in your opinion, should Russia and other nuclear powers conduct toward countries that are developing nuclear weapons? (%) |
||||
|
Policy options |
Oct. 2006 |
July 2009 |
April 2013 |
May 2017 |
|
We need to isolate them from the world community and introduce economic and other sanctions to prevent a new nuclear arms race and the emergence of an atomic bomb in more states |
47 |
52 |
50 |
38 |
|
These countries have the same right to nuclear weapons as the US, Russia, China, etc., so there is no need to conduct any special policy toward those who create an atomic bomb |
34 |
30 |
35 |
41 |
|
Difficult to say |
19 |
18 |
15 |
21 |
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
