Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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The Oil Price Crash: Will the Kremlin’s Policies Change?

Tatiana Mitrova July 08, 2020 Partner Posts
The coronavirus pandemic and the steep drop of oil and gas prices may pose a serious challenge to Russia’s economic model. Mitrova argues that current shocks to the Russian energy market could pale in comparison to long-term consequences.
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Unplugging the Baltic States: Why Russia’s Economic Approach May Be Shifting

Emily Ferris July 01, 2020 RM Exclusives
The probability of Russia resorting to a Crimea-style intervention in the Baltics remains low. As a key energy supplier and major trading partner for the region, Russia has more to gain by using economic levers as opposed to military ones to retain influence.
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A Farewell to the Open Skies Treaty, and an Era of Imaginative Thinking

Bonnie Jenkins June 16, 2020 Partner Posts
President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the 1992 Open Skies Treaty (OST). The OST allows for members to conduct unarmed surveillance flights in each others’ air space. The treaty was designed to enhance mutual understanding, build confidence and promote openness and transparency of military forces and activities.
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New Document Consolidates Russia’s Nuclear Policy in One Place

Olga Oliker June 04, 2020 RM Exclusives
Russia’s new nuclear deterrence strategy document confirms that its policy is not “escalate to de-escalate,” but the document isn't likely to put the debate to rest.
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The Risks of Autonomous Weapons Systems for Crisis Stability and Conflict Escalation in Future US-Russia Confrontations

Burgess Laird June 02, 2020 RM Exclusives
Autonomous weapons systems could foster crisis instability, conflict escalation in contests between the U.S. and Russia in multiple ways. Policymakers must consider if the putative advantages of such systems are worth the potential risks they may raise.
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Build a Better Blob

Emma Ashford May 29, 2020 Recommended Reads
While some see the Blob as a bastion of foreign policy expertise, Ashford argues that portraying Washington's mainstream foreign policy community as "the only game in town" sets up a false choice between "hawkish liberal interventionism" and "Trumpian incompetence."
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Ukraine, Not Russia, Will Sue for Peace as Pandemic Pressure Rises

Joseph Haberman May 14, 2020 Recommended Reads
With the prospect of a major economic crisis, Russia and Ukraine may face increasing pressure to lessen the burden to their economies and populations by seeking a peace settlement in Donbass. The pandemic could compel Ukraine to capitulate first.
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Kto-Kogo: Putin vs. COVID-19

Thomas Graham May 07, 2020 RM Exclusives
Some believe the pandemic and the oil price collapse will erode the Russian president's power or end his presidency. But with the skill he has shown, and the luck that has favored him for 20 years, he could emerge from this crisis even stronger.
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Russia’s Health Care System, Demographics Present Unique Advantages, Disadvantages in Fighting COVID-19

Alexandra Vacroux April 30, 2020 RM Exclusives
A recent history of fighting tuberculosis may give Russia an edge in combating the coronavirus, but an imperfectly reformed health system and a legacy of inadequate and unevenly distributed medical facilities may hinder it.
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Don’t Bet on Reset: US-Russian Relations in the Wake of the Coronavirus

Nikolas K. Gvosdev April 22, 2020 RM Exclusives
By offering himself as an ally to the Trump administration during the crisis, Putin hopes to achieve a long-elusive breakthrough with the U.S. But actions on both sides make the prospect of a 2020 reset unlikely.
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Maintaining Nuclear Safety and Security During the COVID-19 Crisis

William Tobey, Simon Saradzhyan and Nickolas Roth April 16, 2020 RM Exclusives
How are nuclear organizations coping with COVID-19 and what strategies seem to best ensure the safety and security of their operations? Responses have varied around the world, but already some lessons may be inferred.
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Russia Is Well-Positioned to Weather COVID-19's Economic Fallout

Chris Weafer April 09, 2020 RM Exclusives
While Russia should be able to ride through the combination of the coronavirus and lower oil receipts without a crisis, Putin's ambitious growth promises may suffer.
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