The High Price of Losing Ukraine: Part 2 — The Military Threat and Beyond
This is a summary of an article originally published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The author, a non-resident Russia Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), writes:
- "A Russian victory in Ukraine would create a world fundamentally antithetical to U.S. interests and values with an empowered anti-Western coalition. U.S. deterrence power and geopolitical standing will diminish. The cost of protecting the homeland and operating globally will rise, as will the number of national security issues the United States will have to tackle. More states and groups will challenge America at home and abroad. Latent adversarial intent is more likely to transform into action — which is how we got here in the first place, when Russia perceived the West to be weak."
- "The asymmetry goes both ways: Ukraine is the lynchpin on which the future of Russia’s power hinges. Russia’s ability to reconstitute; to maintain and increase its control and influence over its neighbors; the power of the Kremlin’s global narratives and ability to manipulate U.S. will and perceptions; and the strength of Russia’s coalitions, including with U.S. adversaries, all depend on whether Russia wins or loses in Ukraine. Helping Ukraine win would not only prevent Russia from erasing an independent nation and save the Ukrainian people from Russian atrocities and murder but would also land an asymmetric blow to the Russian threat and the anti-U.S. coalition."
- "As long as Ukraine remains committed to defending itself against Russia’s aggression, the best course of action for the United States is to commit to the path of helping Ukraine win."
Read the full article at ISW's website.
Nataliya Bugayova is a non-resident Russia Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) focusing on the Kremlin’s foreign policy decision-making, information operations, and global campaigns from Ukraine to Africa.