The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, May 7, 2025
Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive.
May 6 update: As the May 9 Victory Day celebrations approach, Russian forces continue to creep forward in Ukraine near Sumy and south of Pokrovsk, gaining 33 square miles this week (about 1 ½ Manhattan islands), up from 14 square miles last week. However, Ukraine’s armed forces continue to hold on to Russian territory, in fact gaining 2 square miles this week for a total of 5 square miles. Ukraine’s toehold on Russia now extends beyond Russia’s Kursk region into Russia’s Belgorod region. Should that occupation continue through May 9, it would be an obstacle to Vladimir Putin’s reported desire to declare that all of Russia is free by the anniversary of victory in WWII.
Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?
Territorial Control (figures as of May 6, 2025)
For a higher-resolution image, click here (full screen button in top right).
Report Card*
Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and changes in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory
(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)
- Since Feb. 24, 2022:
- Russia: +27,410 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of New York state).2
- Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
- Russia: +44,035 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)
- In past month (April 8–May 7, 2025): Russia gained 137 square miles. (Area equivalent to about 1 1/3 Nantucket islands.)3
- In past week: Russia gained 33 square miles (the equivalent of 1 ½ Manhattan islands)—a return to its normal slow rate as compared to the previous week’s slowdown of 14 square miles gained. In Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, Ukraine gained an additional 2 square miles of control—holding up to 5 square miles as of May 6. This complicates Russian leaders’ insistence that Russia is entirely liberated. Moscow also continues to deny Kyiv’s claims that Ukrainian forces are present in Russia’s neighboring Belgorod region.
Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–April 2025. (Also based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)
Military casualties
- Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by Cavoli.4 48,000 missing.5
- Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.6 35,000 missing.
Civilian fatalities
Military vehicles and equipment8
Citizens displaced
- Russia:
- Ukraine: 10.2 million displaced Ukrainians, 23% of Ukrainian pre-invasion population of 44 million.
Economic impact12
- Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
- 1.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
- Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7% of GDP.
- Russian ruble: 0.01227 U.S. dollars. +3% since the invasion.
- 3-year bond yield: 17%.
- Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
- 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
- Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
- Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02403 U.S. dollars. -27% since the invasion.
- 3-year bond yield: 24.8%
Infrastructure
- Russia:
- A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
- A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
- Ukraine:
- Ukraine's extensive transmission infrastructure has suffered severe damage in the war, with capacity falling from 56 GW to an estimated 9 GW by the end of 2024.
- Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.
- Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
- Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.
Popular support
Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):
- Ammunition supply
- Foreign military aid
- Force generation
- Military leadership
- Training
- Morale
- Control of strategic locations
- Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.
Footnotes
- As reported in the May 2, 2025, edition of Russia Analytical Report, maps showing trillions of dollars of mineral deposits scattered across Ukraine—including 20–40% located in areas currently occupied by Russian forces—are based largely on outdated Soviet era studies, and proper surveys will likely take years to complete. Also, even after finding a viable deposit it takes 18 years on average to move to extraction.
- According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of May 6, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 112,715 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,520 square miles), which constituted 18.7% of Ukrainian territory.
- In the preceding 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 255 square kilometers (98 square miles), according to a May 6, 2025 estimate by The Economist.
- Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
- Ukraine’s “Want to Find” project set to count number of Russian MIAs has 84,000 entries as of early 2025.
- Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
- 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
- 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
- 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
- “Millions” killed in the war, according to Trump’s April 2025 estimate.
- This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025. The Russian Foreign Ministry estimates that 292 civilian individuals were killed by Ukrainian strikes on the territory of Russia in January-April 2025.
- Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.
- Not being updated as of 2025. In May 2025 Ukraine claimed to have shot down two Russian Su-30s by missiles launched from drone boats.
- Ukraine lost one F-16 in April 2025.
- Not being updated as of 2025.
- International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,” https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.
*This card was produced by RM staff and Maryana Shnitser, Research Assistant for the Avoiding Great Power War Project.
Russia-Ukraine War Report Card