I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• The U.N. Security Council on Feb. 13 called upon U.N. member states to address the danger of terrorist attacks against critical infrastructure and unanimously adopted a resolution to attend to the issue. The resolution encourages the United Nations, its member states and regional and international organizations to share good practices and measures in managing the risk of terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure, such as bridges, power lines, airports and nuclear power plants, among other facilities. (U.N., 02.13.17)
• A group of 21 states—Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Canada, Czech Republic, Chile, Denmark, Finland, Georgia, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Republic of Korea, Romania, Singapore, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States—made a commitment to minimize and eliminate the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) in civilian applications. The text of the joint statement was published by the International Atomic Energy Agency as a document. (IPFM Blog, 02.16.17)
• The U.S. and Russia should be “working together on Iran and other countries of proliferation concern to keep [weapons of mass destruction] and nuclear materials out of the hands of terrorists and dangerous regimes,” according to a new report by the Carnegie Endowment–Chicago Council on Global Affairs Task Force on U.S. Policy Toward Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia. (Russia Matters, 02.09.17)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• The 60% growth in Russia-Iran bilateral trade from $1.2 billion in 2015 to almost $2 billion in 2016 did not meet the high expectations Russian businesses had after American sanctions on Iran were lifted. Exports to Iran stand at only around 1% of Russian foreign trade. (RBTH, 02.17.17)
• Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin cancelled his Feb.13 trip to Iran at the last minute. Rogozin said the visit cancellation was due to "technical reasons," but sources say the real reason was Tehran's public announcement of the deputy prime minister's visit, which he had requested be confidential. (RBTH, 02.15.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• Recent Russian military provocations are probably motivated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s belief that U.S. President Donald Trump has been politically weakened by controversies surrounding his administration, Trump said Feb. 16. “Probably Putin assumes that he’s not going to be able to make a deal with me because it’s politically not popular for me to make a deal,” Trump said. He suggested that he was unlikely to respond to Russian actions over the past few days—including Russian warplanes buzzing a U.S. naval vessel in the Black Sea, the appearance of a Russian spy ship 30 miles off the Connecticut coast and the reported deployment of ground-based cruise missiles in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. (The Washington Post, 02.16.17)
  • Multiple Russian aircraft buzzed a U.S. destroyer patrolling in the Black Sea last week, in an incident the captain of the American ship called “unsafe,” the Pentagon said Feb. 14. The three flybys occurred on Feb. 10 and were first reported by the Washington Free Beacon. (The Washington Post, 02.14.17)
  • The Russian Defense Ministry in Moscow rejected allegations that its jets came close to a U.S. warship in the Black Sea last week, saying in a statement that all its aircraft flew over neutral waters in accordance with international rules. (Bloomberg, 02.15.17)
  • A U.S. defense official said Feb. 14 that a Russian intelligence-collection ship has been operating off the U.S. east coast in international waters. The official was not authorized to discuss an intelligence matter and so spoke on condition of anonymity. The ship had made a port call in Cuba prior to moving north, where it has been monitored off the coast of Delaware, the official said. (AP, 02.15.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump suggested at his Feb. 16 new conference that “the greatest thing I could do is shoot that [Russian] ship that’s 30 miles offshore right out of the water.” A Coast Guard official on Feb. 16 said the presence of the intelligence ship, which is traveling along the Eastern seaboard, is not unprecedented, and is not a cause for alarm. (New York Times, 02.16.17)
• At a NATO meeting in Brussels on Feb. 16, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis made clear that the United States isn’t ready to collaborate militarily with Russia against the Islamic State or other threats, a long-standing goal of the Kremlin’s which new U.S. President Donald Trump says he wants, too. “Russia is going to have to prove itself first,” Mattis said. Nations will seek “a way forward where Russia, living up to its commitments, will return to a partnership of sorts here with NATO,” he explained. “The point about Russia is they have to live by international law just like we expect all mature nations on this planet to do,” Mattis said. “We’ll engage politically; we’re not in a position right now to collaborate on a military level.” Mattis said, “But our political leaders will engage and try to find common ground or a way forward where Russia, living up to its commitments, will return to a partnership of sorts here with NATO.” (AP, 02.16.17, The Hill, 02.16.17, Bloomberg, 02.16.17)
• U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis issued an ultimatum Feb. 15 to NATO allies, warning that if they do not boost their defense spending to goals set by the alliance, the United States may alter its relationship with them. Mattis also said the U.S. remains fully committed to NATO in his first meeting with his alliance counterparts on Feb. 15. (AP, 02.15.17, Bloomberg, 02.15.17)
  • The U.S. call for NATO partners to step up funding for the transatlantic alliance is "a fair demand," German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen said on Feb. 10 after what she called a positive first meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis. (Reuters, 02.10.17)
  • About a third of Germans and French would like to see their countries spend more on the military. Poland and other eastern European countries are reliably in favor of stepping up defense expenditure. (Bloomberg, 02.13.17)
• “We’re working for a more constructive relationship with Russia,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on the sidelines of a NATO meeting at which U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis was also in attendance. “But of course our dialog with Russia has to be based on some core principles, the respect for the territorial integrity of all nations, states in Europe, including Ukraine, and of course we need to combine dialogue with credible deterrence.” Stoltenberg also said he would meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the margins of the Munich Security Conference, which will be held on Feb. 17-19.  (Bloomberg, 02.16.17, TASS, 02.14.17)
• A remark made by U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis at the NATO meeting about negotiating with Russia “from a position of strength” prompted a sharp response from Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who said such a strategy was “futile.” Asked about Shoigu’s reaction, Mattis said: “I have no need to respond to the Russian statement at all.” (AP, 02.16.17)
• U.S. Gen. Joseph Dunford, the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, sat down with his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, in the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan. The meeting resulted in an agreement on enhancing communication to avoid “unintended incidents," the Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Feb. 16. Russia’s Defense Ministry said Dunford and Gerasimov “determined the areas of joint work to improve security of military activities, reduce tensions and risk of incidents.” The United States later issued an almost identical statement. It was the first meeting between the nations' top military officers since the U.S. ceased military-to-military relations with Russia after the Crimea takeover three years ago. (AP, 02.16.17, The Hill, 02.16.17)
• U.S. Vice President Mike Pence will seek on Feb. 18 to soothe allies unnerved by U.S. President Donald Trump’s unorthodox statements on Russia and NATO as he stresses America's commitment to Europe during the first major foreign address for the Trump administration. (Reuters, 02.17.17)
• The Trump administration is moving to back Montenegro's bid to join NATO, according to senior U.S. officials, a decision that could both bolster the Western alliance and antagonize Russia. Montenegro's Prime Minister, Dusko Markovic, has told Russia and its allies within Montenegro to stop destabilizing the country as part of their opposition to the NATO membership bid. (Wall Street Journal, 02.10.17, RFE/RL, 02.14.17)
• Five hundred U.S. troops began arriving in a Romanian Black Sea port with tanks and hardware to bolster defense in this eastern European NATO nation. (AP, 02.14.17)
• NATO accused Russia of escalating a disinformation campaign since the Kremlin's 2014 seizure of Ukraine's Crimea region, saying Russian websites such as Sputnik and RT had posted false stories, the alliance's spokeswoman said on Feb. 11. (Reuters, 02.11.17)
• A recent poll by Gallup indicates only three percent of Russians view NATO as a protector while 67% view it as a threat. The poll also indicates that residents of countries in Russia's sphere of influence that are not NATO members tend to share Russia's views on the alliance, according to Gallup. Even in Ukraine, 35% of those polled view NATO as a threat while 29% view it as a source of protection. Gallup’s statement on results of the poll didn’t specify whether residents of separatist-controlled parts of Eastern Ukraine have been polled. (Russia Matters, 02.13.17)  

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Russia and the United States need to improve ties in order to avoid a nuclear holocaust, U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed. “It would be much easier for me to be so tough [on Russia.] But you know what? I want to do the right thing for the American people.” “We're a very powerful nuclear country and so [is Russia]," Trump told reporters. "I've been briefed. I can tell you one thing ... [a] nuclear holocaust would be like no other. They're a very powerful nuclear country, and so are we. If we have a good relationship with Russia—believe me—that's a good thing, not a bad thing,” he said. (The Moscow Times, 02.17.17)
• Russia has secretly deployed a new ground-based cruise missile that American officials say violates the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Officials from the U.S. presidential administration said the Russians now have two battalions of the prohibited SSC-X cruise missile. One is still located at Russia's missile test site at Kapustin Yar in southern Russia near Volgograd. The other was shifted in December 2016 from that test site to an operational base elsewhere in the country, according to a senior official who did not provide further details and requested anonymity to discuss recent intelligence reports about the missile. Each missile battalion is believed to have four mobile launchers with about half a dozen nuclear-tipped missiles allocated to each of the launchers. The mobile launcher for the cruise missile, however, closely resembles the mobile launcher used for the Iskander, a nuclear-tipped short-range system that is permitted under treaties. (New York Times, 02.14.17)
• Russia is committed to honoring its international obligations, including in relation to missiles, the Kremlin said on Feb. 15, responding to reports it had violated the INF treaty. "Russia has been and remains committed to its international commitments, including to the treaty in question," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a daily telephone briefing. "Nobody has formally accused Russia of violating the treaty." (Reuters, 02.15.17)
• NATO’s chief says the military alliance would be concerned if reports that Russia has violated the INF treaty by deploying a cruise missile prove true. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the missile became operational late last year, possibly violating the 1987 INF treaty on the development and testing of cruise missiles. (AP, 02.15.17)
• “Russia’s deployment of nuclear-tipped ground-launched cruise missiles in violation of the INF treaty is a significant military threat to U.S. forces in Europe and our NATO allies,” Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said in a statement Feb. 14. He said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “testing” U.S. President Donald Trump. (AP, 02.15.17)
• Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) sees little reason for the U.S. to continue adhering to the INF treaty, in light of Russia’s violations. He has recommended building up U.S. nuclear forces in Europe, which currently include about 200 bombs that can be delivered by aircraft. The U.S. withdrew land-based nuclear-armed missiles from Europe as part of the INF deal. (AP, 02.15.17)
• Russia is enthusiastic about U.S. President Donald Trump's rhetoric about bettering relations and his re-examination of American exceptionalism, a philosophy that Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized as dangerous. But the more concrete (and still unclear) elements of Trump's foreign policy, including new negotiations on arms control, are non-starters in Moscow. (The Washington Post, 02.10.17)

Counter-terrorism:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is calling for a new level of cooperation with Western intelligence agencies in order to fight terrorism. “It’s in the general interest to establish a dialogue with the special services of the United States and other member countries of NATO,” Putin said Feb. 16 at a meeting of top Federal Security Service (FSB) officials, news agencies reported. (AP, 02.16.17)
• The Moscow Regional Military Court on Feb. 14 found Mohamad Mezhidov, Elmar Ashayev and Aslan Baisultanov guilty of having links with the extremist group Islamic State in Syria and plotting a terrorist attack in Moscow. The three were sentenced to prison terms ranging from three to 14 years. (RFE/RL, 02.14.17)

Conflict in Syria:

• Prominent Syrian dissident Louay Hussein said on Feb. 10  he believed the country's war was effectively over, as foreign governments have cut support to rebels fighting to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Louay Hussein said Russian-backed diplomacy had "launched a new path" towards ending the conflict. "The armed conflict for the state is over," said Hussein. (Reuters, 02.10.17)
• Syrian government officials sat face-to-face with rebels for the second time in three weeks in the Kazakh capital of Astana on Feb. 16, as diplomats stepped up efforts to lay the groundwork for U.N.-brokered peace talks next week. A leader of the Russian delegation to the talks in Astana, sponsored by Russia, Turkey and Iran, said an agreement has been reached to form a permanent contact group of the three nations to ‘preserve and strengthen” a cease-fire that has technically been in place since Dec. 30. The meeting is intended to pave the way for the revival of broader, U.N.-led peace talks in Geneva next week. (AP, 02.16.17)
• Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said coordination between the Russian and U.S. military would begin taking shape as soon as conditions allow. "I am adamant, Donald Trump is absolutely sincere as every time he confirms the intention to defeat ISIS," the minister said. "We are ready to cooperate with him." (TASS, 02.12.17)
• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, trying to reassure allies that Washington was not tilting towards Moscow over the Syrian conflict, told them on Feb. 17 that the United States backed U.N. efforts to broker a political solution to the war, officials and diplomats said. (Reuters, 02.17.17)
• The Syrian army continued its offensive on the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra with the support of the Russian air task force, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Feb. 13. Russian jets pounded rebel-held areas of the Syrian city of Deraa on Feb. 14 for a second day in the first such intensive bombing campaign since Moscow's major intervention in Syria more than a year ago, rebels and witnesses said. Rebel groups on Feb. 12 stormed the heavily-garrisoned Manshiya district saying the campaign sought to obstruct any army attempts to capture a strategic border crossing with Jordan. (Reuters, 02.14.17, TASS, 02.13.17)
• Russia released drone footage Monday showing new destruction in Syria’s historic town of Palmyra, which was recently recaptured by the Islamic State, and warned that the militants could be planning further demolition of antiquities. (AP, 02.13.17)
• A battalion of Russian military police has been sent to Syria from the Republic of Ingushetia, a Russian region in the North Caucasus. (Reuters, 02.13.17)
• An investigation commissioned by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) bolsters the aid group’s claim that Russian and Syrian forces were responsible for the deadly bombing last year of a hospital it was supporting in northern Syria. (The Guardian, 02.17.17)
• Russian military officials have vociferously denied that their airstrikes have killed civilians in Syria. But a new analysis by the Atlantic Council that draws on satellite images, security camera videos, social media and even footage from the Kremlin-backed Russian television network has challenged Moscow's claims that its airstrikes on behalf of the Syrian military were an exercise in prudent restraint. (New York Times, 02.13.17)
• Human Rights Watch accused the Syrian government on Feb. 13 of conducting at least eight chemical attacks using chlorine gas on opposition-controlled residential areas during the final months in the battle for Aleppo. (AP, 02.13.17)

Cyber security:

• U.S. intelligence has collected information that Russia is considering turning over Edward Snowden as a "gift" to U.S. President Donald Trump—who has called the NSA whistleblower a "spy" and a "traitor" who deserves to be executed, according to a senior U.S. official. The "outdated stories" about Snowden’s extradition to the U.S. is an attempt to pressure the White House, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova wrote on her Facebook page on Feb. 11. (NBC, 02.11.17, TASS, 02.11.17)
• The Pentagon is paying hackers to test its key internal systems for vulnerabilities—and they are finding weaknesses faster than expected. (Bloomberg, 02.13.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

• OPEC's January oil production fell by 890,000 barrels a day (b/d) compared with December, the cartel said Feb. 13. Russia, the largest participating producer outside OPEC, cut production by 60,000 b/d to 11.03 million b/d. Russia will decide in April or May whether an agreement on global oil output cuts between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, set to end in June, should be extended. (Wall Street Journal, 02.13.17, Reuters, 02.11.17)
• Russian oil-indexed natural gas is becoming more expensive in Europe and may match spot rates as soon as this month, according to estimates by the Russian regulator. (Bloomberg, 02.17.17)
• Gazprom’s plan to circumvent Eastern Europe and bring more Russian gas directly to Germany faces a crucial test in European courts this month as Poland seeks to extend an injunction curbing the Russian group’s access to the Opal distribution pipeline. (Financial Times, 02.14.17)
• Top South Korean refiner SK Innovation Co. is set to receive about 1 million barrels of Urals crude in its first purchase of the Russian blend oil in a decade. (Bloomberg, 02.17.17)
• Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak is to visit Houston, Texas for the CERAWeek energy conference in March. (Reuters, 02.11.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

• No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

• U.S. President Donald Trump's national security adviser Michael Flynn resigned Feb. 13 after revelations that he had discussed sanctions on Russia with the Russian ambassador to the U.S. prior to Trump taking office. (Reuters, 02.14.17)
• U.S. President Donald Trump defended Michael Flynn at the press conference on Feb. 16, saying the retired army general did nothing wrong. Trump said Flynn "was just doing his job" when the aide spoke with the Russian ambassador to the U.S., Sergei Kislyak, in December about sanctions Obama had imposed the same day for Russia’s interference in the U.S. election. "I fired him because of what he said to Mike Pence, very simple," Trump said in reference to revelations that Flynn misled administration officials, including Vice President Mike Pence, over his contact with the Russian envoy. (Bloomberg, 02.16.17)
• The Trump administration was preparing to replace Michael Flynn as early as last week, a senior administration official said, after a warning from the Justice Department that he may have misled U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. Just six days into his presidency, Trump was informed his national security adviser had misled his vice president about contacts with Russia. Trump kept his No. 2 in the dark and waited another two weeks before ousting the aide, Michael Flynn, citing a slow but steady erosion of trust, White House officials said Feb. 14. (AP, 02.14.17, Bloomberg, 02.14.17)
• Robert Harward, a retired U.S. Navy vice admiral, turned down U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer to become national security adviser. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who is now acting national security adviser, “is very much in play for NSA—as are three others,” Trump said Feb. 17 on Twitter. (Bloomberg, 02.14.17, Bloomberg, 02.16.17)
• Phone transcripts show that Michael Flynn told Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak that if Russia did not to respond in kind to the Obama sanctions as it had to past sanctions, that could smooth the way toward a broader discussion of improving U.S.-Russian relations once Donald Trump took power. (RFE/RL, 02.15.17)
• U.S. media are reporting that former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn may have lied to FBI agents in an interview last month, saying he had not discussed sanctions against Russia with Moscow's U.S. ambassador. (RFE/RL, 02.17.17)
• The Pentagon hasn't found any documents indicating that Michael Flynn received authorization to accept money from a foreign government before traveling to Moscow in 2015 for a paid Russian state TV event. (Wall Street Journal, 02.16.17)
• Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said in a statement that Michael Flynn’s White House exit “raises further questions about the Trump administration’s intentions toward Vladimir Putin’s Russia, including statements by the president suggesting moral equivalence between the United States and Russia despite its invasion of Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, threats to our NATO allies and attempted interference in American elections.” (Bloomberg, 02.14.17)
• When asked about U.S. President Donald Trump's national security adviser Michael Flynn's contacts with the Russian ambassador to the United States on Feb. 13, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a conference call with reporters that Flynn and Kislyak had not discussed lifting sanctions on Moscow. “Obviously every ambassador informs the center [Moscow] about all the contacts he has, so the information gets to us, but we are not willing to comment on internal discussions being held in Washington," Peskov said. (Reuters, 02.13.17)
• Top Russian legislators have slammed the resignation of Michael Flynn, U.S. President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, as “Russophobic paranoia.” Konstantin Kosachev, the head of the International Affairs Committee in the Federation Council, Russia’s upper house of parliament, said that Flynn’s departure could be a sign that U.S. President Donald Trump was already “backed into a corner.” Alexey Pushkov, a fellow senator and member of the Defense and Security Committee in the Federation Council, also bemoaned Flynn’s departure on Twitter. (The Moscow Times, 02.14.17)
• The resignation of Michael Flynn is “a negative signal to Russia,” which continues to be seen “as a strategic opponent by the American establishment,” said Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the International Affairs Committee in Russia’s State Duma, parliament’s lower house, according to state-owned RIA Novosti. While Trump’s rhetoric has been “constructive” toward Russia, “the coming weeks will demonstrate” whether he can establish good ties in practice,” Slutsky said. (Bloomberg, 02.14.17)
• Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of U.S. President Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials. The officials said that one of the advisers picked up on the calls was Paul Manafort. Manafort, who has not been charged with any crimes, dismissed the officials' accounts in a telephone interview on Feb. 14. The FBI has closely examined at least three other people close to Trump, although it is unclear if their calls were intercepted. They are Carter Page, a businessman and former foreign policy adviser to the campaign; Roger Stone, a longtime Republican operative and Michael Flynn. All of the men have strongly denied that they had any improper contacts with Russian officials. (New York Times, 02.14.17)
• U.S. President Donald Trump responded to the New York Times report that his campaign aides and associates “had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before” in a string of tweets the morning of Feb. 15. In his response, Trump took aim at targets ranging from “the fake news media” to a cover-up for “Hillary Clinton’s losing campaign” to “the intelligence community (NSA and FBI?),” which he said was “just like Russia.” “The real scandal here is that classified information is illegally given out by ‘intelligence’ like candy. Very un-American!”  Trump repeated on Feb. 16 that he was not aware of any contacts between his campaign aides and Russian intelligence officials, calling reports to the contrary "a ruse" and "fake news." "The whole Russia thing--that’s a ruse," Trump said Feb. 16 at a news conference at the White House. "I didn’t do anything for Russia." (Reuters, 02.15.17, Bloomberg, 02.14.17, Bloomberg, 02.16.17)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected allegations that U.S. President Donald Trump’s team met with Russian spies. Their contacts were “normal diplomatic practice,” Peskov told reporters. (Bloomberg, 02.14.17)
• Wary Democrats on Feb. 16 challenged Republicans who control the U.S. Congress to conduct a credible investigation into contacts between President Donald Trump's associates and Russia, a process that will likely take months and may never become public. (Reuters, 02.16.17)
• “I think there needs to be fulsome investigation on all angles relative to nefarious activities that were taking place with Russia, beginning in March but even going back before that time,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. He said Michael Flynn’s resignation “heightens” the need for GOP leaders to conduct an expanded probe, although he stopped short of endorsing an independent commission as Democrats have demanded. (Bloomberg, 02.14.17)
• U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions faced growing pressure on Feb. 14 to remove himself from any role in investigating U.S. President Donald Trump’s aides and their relationship with Russia, but advisers to Sessions said he saw no need to do so. (New York Times, 02.14.17)
• For the first time, U.S. investigators say they have corroborated some of the communications detailed in a 35-page dossier compiled by a former British intelligence agent, multiple current and former U.S. law enforcement and intelligence officials tell CNN. None of the newly learned information relates to the salacious allegations in the dossier, but rather to conversations between foreign nationals. The intercepts do confirm that some of the conversations described in the dossier took place between the same individuals on the same days and from the same locations as detailed in the dossier, according to the officials. White House press secretary Sean Spicer on Feb. 10 blasted CNN for reporting on the unverified dossier. “We continue to be disgusted by CNN’s fake news reporting,” he told the news network when contacted about its latest report on Feb. 10. (CNN, 02.10.17, The Hill, 02.10.17)
• U.S. House Democrats are pushing forward with legislation to make sure Congress can block any effort President Donald Trump's administration might make to lift sanctions on Russia. The House legislation, introduced on Feb. 15, mirrors a measure put forth a week earlier by Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Senate. (RFE/RL, 02.15.17)
• An Associated Press correspondent asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov if Moscow is concerned about the political “turmoil” in Washington on Feb. 17. Russia’s chief diplomat said the matter is a U.S. domestic issue. (The Moscow Times, 02.17.17)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked Slovenia on Feb. 10 for offering to host his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, but added that the prospect hinges on Washington. The Russian leader hailed Slovenia, where Trump’s wife Melania was born and grew up, as an “excellent” venue for possible talks with Trump. The Kremlin said on Feb. 13 there was talk of a possible meeting between Putin and Trump taking place before a G20 summit in July, but there was nothing specific to report so far. (AP, 02.10.17, Reuters, 02.13.17)
• The Kremlin said on Feb. 17 it was not disappointed by how U.S.-Russia ties were developing under U.S. President Donald Trump and that it would only be possible to assess the outlook for relations once the leaders of both countries had met. "We haven't been wearing rose-tinted glasses, we never harbored illusions, so there is nothing to be disappointed in," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call. (Reuters, 02.17.17)
• The Kremlin ordered state media to cut back on their fawning coverage of U.S. President Donald Trump, reflecting a growing concern among senior Russian officials that the new U.S. administration will be less friendly than first thought, three people familiar with the matter said. (Bloomberg, 02.16.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s Central Bank closed almost 100 banks in 2016, and in a cleanup with few precedents, Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina has shut almost 300 over the past three years. (Bloomberg, 02.13.17)
• Russia is now on the verge of becoming a net exporter of sugar. Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, or Ikar, forecasts a total of 180,000 tons will be exported in the 2016-17 season. (Bloomberg, 02.11.17)
• Russia has postponed a planned privatization of a stake in VTB, Russia's No. 2 bank, in the hope of getting a better price if Western sanctions are lifted, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Feb. 15. (Reuters, 02.15.17)
• Over 2 million Russians regularly use recreational drugs, Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev said Feb. 15, citing sociological surveys. (The Moscow Times, 02.15.17)
• The Russian government could be forced to rethink its travel ban on people with HIV just two weeks after ruling that the restrictions would stay in place. (The Moscow Times, 02.13.17)
• The governor of Russia's northwestern region of Karelia, Aleksandr Khudilainen, has become the fifth regional leader to step down in recent days. (RFE/RL, 02.15.17)
• More Russians approve of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin now than at any time over the past 16 years, a survey by the independent Levada Center pollster revealed Feb. 15. Some 46% of respondents viewed Stalin positively, compared with 21% who said that they hated or feared the former leader. (The Moscow Times, 02.15.17)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA fifth-generation stealth fighter may enter service in 2018, but the Kremlin is not in a particular hurry to buy the expensive new jet in large numbers. (The National Interest, 02.16.17)
• Russia’s RSK-MiG is working on a new lightweight fifth-generation stealth fighter to replace the Mikoyan MiG-29 and MiG-35 Fulcrum series fighters. (The National Interest, 02.14.17)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• No significant developments.

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a vocal critic of U.S. President Donald Trump elected as Germany’s 12th postwar president on Feb. 12, predicted “difficulties” in relations with the U.S. Asked whether he would seek to improve relations with Russia, the Social Democrat said the world was confronting a “complete re-ordering of international relations.” (Bloomberg, 02.12.17)
• French President Francois Hollande requested a full briefing on what is being done to fend off cyber interference in the 2017 presidential race. Hollande’s request comes after independent candidate Emmanuel Macron reported repeated cyber-attacks on his campaign and blaming Russian interference. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied Russia was involved in hacking the campaign in a conference call on Feb. 14. He said there is no possibility that the Russian government had any connection to the attacks and that the accusations were “absurd.” (Bloomberg, 02.15.17)
• Serbian Defense Minister Zoran Djordjevic said after returning from one of his frequent visits to Moscow that six MiG-29s will be delivered to Serbia “soon.” (AP, 02.12.17)
• Deutsche Bank AG, which last month settled charges that it helped investors launder money through its business in Moscow, remains under scrutiny in Russia over its tax practices. (Bloomberg, 02.13.17)
• Russia joined the world in slamming North Korea's ballistic missile test this weekend in a rage against U.S. President Donald Trump. Putin’s government called Kim a “challenge to all of us” as the Kremlin spoke out against Kim and warned the situation may trigger a “hot conflict.”  (Daily Star, 02.13.17)
• Russia has offered to share intelligence with the Philippines. The offer was made by Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of Russia's Security Council, during a meeting with Philippine security officials in Davao, the hometown of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, according to the news agency. The Philippines was invited to join a database-sharing system to help combat trans-national crime and terrorism. Duterte has been sending friendly overtures to Russia. He will visit Moscow in the spring of 2017. (RBTH, 02.17.17)
• The Taliban has been chasing closer ties with Russia for the past three years in a bid to rid U.S. forces from Afghanistan, former Taliban commander Akbar Agha has claimed. (The Moscow Times, 02.13.17)

Ukraine:

• U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made his debut on the world stage Feb. 16, meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and urging Moscow to pull back in eastern Ukraine, then signing a joint statement condemning North Korea's latest ballistic missile test. He attended almost a dozen meetings with his diplomatic counterparts from the G-20 group of major world economies. Tillerson called on Russia to honor its commitments under the Minsk agreement to end the fighting in Ukraine’s Donbas region. “As we search for new common ground, we expect Russia to honor its commitments to the Minsk agreements and work to de-escalate the violence in the Ukraine,” Tillerson said after talks with Lavrov. Lavrov, speaking separately, said that the issue of sanctions on Russia was not discussed.  (The Washington Post, 02.16.17, Bloomberg, 02.16.17, AP, 02.16.17)
• Russia called on U.S. President Donald Trump to live up to his pledge to improve relations, amid growing unease in Moscow that he may not lift sanctions imposed over the crisis in Ukraine. “Crimea was TAKEN by Russia during the Obama administration. Was Obama too soft on Russia?” Trump said on Twitter Feb. 15. Senior officials in Moscow had earlier criticized White House spokesman Sean Spicer for saying on Feb. 15 that the president expects Russia to “return” the Black Sea peninsula annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call that Crimea is a part of Russia and its status won’t be discussed with the U.S. (Bloomberg, 02.15.17)
• U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis made no mention of Russia by name as he spoke to reporters on arrival at the NATO meeting. But he did refer obliquely to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea three years ago and continuing Kremlin-backed violence in eastern Ukraine, which prompted the U.S. and EU to impose sanctions. “The events of 2014 were sobering and we must continue to adapt to what’s being revealed to us in terms of our security challenges,” he said. (Bloomberg, 02.15.17)
• Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has warned against any "appeasement" of Russia, arguing at the Munich Security Conference that cutting a deal with Moscow on his country would make the situation worse. The remarks came as the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic said Feb. 17 that the rebels aim to "free the occupied territories" in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces by force if political means fail. (AP, 02.17.17, AP, 02.17.17)
• The Ukrainian, German, French and Russian foreign ministers are due to meet on Feb. 18 at the Munich Security Conference to discuss the Ukraine crisis. (RFE/RL, 02.17.17)
• The European Parliament has endorsed new rules governing the suspension of visa-free regimes with countries outside the European Union, a key step toward visa-free travel for Georgians and Ukrainians to the Schengen zone. Diplomats say visa liberalization for Georgia is expected to enter into force in late March. The approval of the suspension mechanism also clears the way for further steps on visa liberalization for Ukraine, which diplomats say is expected to enter into force in June. (RFE/RL, 02.13.17)
• The Ukrainian military said on Feb. 17 three Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 10 others injured in fighting against Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine in the past day. (RFE/RL, 02.17.17)
• The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine recorded more ceasefire violations in the Donetsk region, including over 600 explosions, on Feb. 15-16 compared with the previous reporting period (80 explosions). Most of the explosions recorded by the SMM occurred in the Avdiivka-Yasynuvata-Donetsk airport area. (OSCE, 02.13.17)
• Despite Kiev's pledge to rein them in, rogue militias continue to fight against Moscow-backed separatists. One major group that refuses to submit is the Right Sector. Analysts say Right Sector has thousands of members, including hundreds of armed men deployed alongside Ukrainian government troops. Right Sector's existence undermines Kiev's standing within Europe, and—if peace talks ever gain momentum—this group probably would reject any compromise and could push a volatile region deeper into conflict. In the little town of Mariinka, volunteer units stand guard. At a position overlooking separatist-held Donetsk, two foreigners stand out: an Italian neo-Nazi and a young Dutchman. (The Washington Post, 02.13.17)
• About 200 soldiers from Canada’s 1st Battalion, Princess Patricia's Light Infantry are set to leave for Ukraine at the beginning of March. The Canadians have taught about 2,600 Ukrainian troops the basics of soldiering, such as how to use their weapons and move as a unit, plus more advanced skills, such as bomb disposal and medical training. (CBC, 02.14.17)
• Ukraine this spring will renew its search for human remains at the crash site of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, Dutch Security and Justice Minister Stef Blok has said. (RFE/RL, 02.17.17)
• Since 2015, Ukraine has been among the ten countries with the largest internally displaced populations populations worldwide. (Carnegie Endowment, 02.13.17)
• Ukraine’s president on Feb. 16 pledged to resume coal supplies from separatist-controlled parts of the country after it was blocked by volunteer battalions, threatening to disrupt the country’s power supply. Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers has earlier declared a state of emergency due to serious shortages of anthracite coal. In spite of the shortages, Ukraine will not import electric power from Russia, according to Ukrainian Minister of Energy Igor Nasalik. (AP, 02.16.17, Kyiv Post, 02.15.17, TASS, 02.14.17)
• The amount of nuclear energy in Ukraine's electricity mix is "rapidly approaching" 60%, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said at a meeting of the country's National Security and Defense Council, according to a statement on the presidential website. (World Nuclear News, 02.17.17)
• Kiev has filed an application with the World Trade Organization over restrictions imposed by Russia on transit of Ukrainian goods to Central Asia. (RAPSI, 02.13.17)
• Ukraine is starting to live up to its reputation as Europe’s breadbasket. Exports of wheat, barley and sunflower oil are at or near all-time highs, part of an agricultural revival that began to take hold in 2013. (Bloomberg, 02.13.17)
• Former Russian State Duma Deputy Denis Voronenkov, who defected to Ukraine last year, has called Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region “a mistake."  Voronenkov said that Vladislav Surkov, adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, had opposed Russia’s annexation of Crimea. “The decision to annex [Crimea] was made by one person. All normal people were against it, including those in his inner circle,” said Voronenkov. (RFE/RL, 02.14.17, Meduza, 02.16.17)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Turkmenistan’s president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov won re-election to a third term Feb. 12 in a massive landslide. Official results credit him with 97.69% of the vote on turnout of just over 97%. (TOL, 02.13.17)
• Georgian Foreign Minister Mikheil Janelidze says that U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson expressed Washington's firm support for the ex-Soviet nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Janelidze made the comments outside the U.S. State Department following his meeting with Tillerson. (RFE/RL, 02.10.17)
• A U.S. citizen wanted in Uzbekistan on suspicion of crimes related to terrorism has been detained in Georgia. (RFE/RL, 02.15.17)
• Police in Kyrgyzstan have detained eight alleged members of a banned Islamic group. Interior Ministry officials said on Feb. 14 that the men were detained in the southern district of Kara-Suu on suspicion of being members of Hizb ut-Tahrir. (RFE/RL, 02.14.17)
• Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbaev has appointed former Deputy Prime Minister Imanghali Tasmaghambetov as the country's ambassador to Russia. (RFE/RL, 02.16.17)
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has held talks with the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff in Baku. (RFE/RL, 02.16.17)
• Belarusian Deputy Prime Minister Uladzimer Syamashka says Minsk and Moscow are working on a protocol to resolve the ongoing energy standoff between the two allies. Minsk and Moscow have been at odds over prices for natural gas and oil delivered to Belarus from Russia for more than a year. (RFE/RL, 02.16.17)
• Moldova's pro-Russian President Igor Dodon has told RFE/RL he thinks the planned opening of a permanent NATO liaison office in Moldova would amount to a provocation. (RFE/RL, 02.14.17)

IV. Quoteworthy

• “Americans cannot care more for your children’s security than you do. Disregard for military readiness demonstrates a lack of respect for ourselves, for the alliance and for the freedoms we inherited, which are now clearly threatened,” U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis told his counterparts from the European members of NATO. (AP, 02.15.17)
• "[Vladimir] Putin may be seeing the future with more clarity than Americans still caught in a Cold War paradigm," wrote Patrick Buchanan, the right-wing, ethno-nationalist American politician, in 2013. He went on to suggest that the new fault line in global politics would be between "conservatives and traditionalists in every country arrayed against the militant secularism of a multicultural and transnational elite." (The Washington Post, 02.13.17)
• “If we wanted, we could have taken advantage of the fact that they are not ready yet over there,” says one senior official in the Russian administration. “We could probably have gotten some kind of agreement to have Trump and Putin meet quickly, and they might have hit it off. But what then?” (Financial Times, 02.16.17)

For those of you who subscribe to Russia Analytical Report: There will be no issue Monday, Feb. 20, due to the President’s Day holiday.